Update results

pages/chronos_bench_ii.py

@@ -1,179 +0,0 @@
-import sys
-from pathlib import Path
-
-sys.path.append(str(Path(__file__).parent.parent))
-
-import fev
-import pandas as pd
-import streamlit as st
-from streamlit.elements.lib.column_types import ColumnConfig
-
-from src.strings import (
-    CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_BASIC_INFO,
-    CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_DETAILS,
-    CITATION_CHRONOS,
-    CITATION_FEV,
-    CITATION_HEADER,
-    PAIRWISE_BENCHMARK_DETAILS,
-    get_pivot_legend,
-)
-from src.utils import (
-    construct_bar_chart,
-    construct_pairwise_chart,
-    construct_pivot_table,
-    format_leaderboard,
-    format_metric_name,
-    get_metric_description,
-)
-
-st.set_page_config(layout="wide", page_title="FEV Benchmark Leaderboard", page_icon=":material/trophy:")
-
-TITLE = "<h1 style='text-align: center; font-size: 350%;'>Chronos Benchmark II</h1>"
-BASELINE_MODEL = "seasonal_naive"
-LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL = "chronos_bolt_base"
-SORT_COL = "win_rate"
-N_RESAMPLES_FOR_CI = 1000
-TOP_K_MODELS_TO_PLOT = 15
-AVAILABLE_METRICS = ["WQL", "MASE"]
-SUMMARY_URLS = [
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_arima.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_ets.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_theta.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_base.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_large.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_mini.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_small.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_tiny.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_base.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_mini.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_small.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_tiny.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_base.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_large.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_small.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/seasonal_naive.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/timesfm.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/timesfm-2.0.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/ttm-r2.csv",
-    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/tirex.csv",
-]
-
-
-@st.cache_data()
-def load_summaries():
-    summaries = []
-    for url in SUMMARY_URLS:
-        df = pd.read_csv(url)
-        summaries.append(df)
-    return pd.concat(summaries, ignore_index=True)
-
-
-@st.cache_data()
-def get_leaderboard(metric_name: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
-    summaries = load_summaries()
-    lb = fev.analysis.leaderboard(
-        summaries=summaries,
-        metric_column=metric_name,
-        missing_strategy="impute",
-        baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL,
-        leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL,
-    )
-    lb = lb.astype("float64").reset_index()
-
-    lb["skill_score"] = lb["skill_score"] * 100
-    lb["win_rate"] = lb["win_rate"] * 100
-    lb["num_failures"] = lb["num_failures"] / summaries["task_name"].nunique() * 100
-    return lb
-
-
-@st.cache_data()
-def get_pairwise(metric_name: str, included_models: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame:
-    if BASELINE_MODEL not in included_models:
-        included_models = included_models + [BASELINE_MODEL]
-    summaries = load_summaries()
-    return (
-        fev.analysis.pairwise_comparison(
-            summaries,
-            included_models=included_models,
-            metric_column=metric_name,
-            baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL,
-            missing_strategy="impute",
-            n_resamples=N_RESAMPLES_FOR_CI,
-            leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL,
-        )
-        .round(3)
-        .reset_index()
-    )
-
-
-with st.sidebar:
-    selected_metric = st.selectbox("Evaluation Metric", options=AVAILABLE_METRICS, format_func=format_metric_name)
-    st.caption(get_metric_description(selected_metric))
-
-cols = st.columns(spec=[0.025, 0.95, 0.025])
-
-with cols[1] as main_container:
-    st.markdown(TITLE, unsafe_allow_html=True)
-
-    metric_df = get_leaderboard(selected_metric).sort_values(by=SORT_COL, ascending=False)
-    top_k_models = metric_df.head(TOP_K_MODELS_TO_PLOT)["model_name"].tolist()
-    pairwise_df = get_pairwise(selected_metric, included_models=top_k_models)
-
-    st.markdown("## :material/trophy: Leaderboard", unsafe_allow_html=True)
-    st.markdown(CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_BASIC_INFO, unsafe_allow_html=True)
-    df_styled = format_leaderboard(metric_df)
-    st.dataframe(
-        df_styled,
-        use_container_width=True,
-        hide_index=True,
-        column_config={
-            "model_name": ColumnConfig(label="Model Name", alignment="left"),
-            "win_rate": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Avg. win rate (%)", format="%.1f"),
-            "skill_score": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Skill score (%)", format="%.1f"),
-            "median_inference_time_s": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Median runtime (s)", format="%.1f"),
-            "training_corpus_overlap": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Leakage (%)", format="%d"),
-            "num_failures": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Failed tasks (%)", format="%.0f"),
-            "zero_shot": ColumnConfig(label="Zero-shot", alignment="center"),
-            "org": ColumnConfig(label="Organization", alignment="left"),
-            "link": st.column_config.LinkColumn(label="Link", display_text=":material/open_in_new:"),
-        },
-    )
-
-    with st.expander("See details"):
-        st.markdown(CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, unsafe_allow_html=True)
-
-    st.markdown("## :material/bar_chart: Pairwise comparison", unsafe_allow_html=True)
-    chart_col_1, _, chart_col_2 = st.columns(spec=[0.45, 0.1, 0.45])
-
-    with chart_col_1:
-        st.altair_chart(
-            construct_pairwise_chart(pairwise_df, col="win_rate", metric_name=selected_metric),
-            use_container_width=True,
-        )
-
-    with chart_col_2:
-        st.altair_chart(
-            construct_pairwise_chart(pairwise_df, col="skill_score", metric_name=selected_metric),
-            use_container_width=True,
-        )
-
-    with st.expander("See details"):
-        st.markdown(PAIRWISE_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, unsafe_allow_html=True)
-
-    st.markdown("## :material/table_chart: Results for individual tasks", unsafe_allow_html=True)
-    with st.expander("Show detailed results"):
-        st.markdown(get_pivot_legend(BASELINE_MODEL, LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL), unsafe_allow_html=True)
-        st.dataframe(
-            construct_pivot_table(
-                summaries=load_summaries(),
-                metric_name=selected_metric,
-                baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL,
-                leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL,
-            )
-        )
-
-    st.divider()
-    st.markdown("### :material/format_quote: Citation", unsafe_allow_html=True)
-    st.markdown(CITATION_HEADER)
-    st.markdown(CITATION_FEV)
-    st.markdown(CITATION_CHRONOS)

save_tables.py

@@ -141,6 +141,22 @@ def compute_pivot_table(summaries: pd.DataFrame, metric_name: str) -> tuple[pd.D
     return errors.reset_index(), is_imputed_baseline.reset_index(), is_leakage_imputed.reset_index()
 
 
+def load_summaries_from_local(path: Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """Load and concatenate all CSV summaries from a local directory."""
+    csv_files = sorted(path.glob("*.csv"))
+    if not csv_files:
+        raise FileNotFoundError(f"No CSV files found in {path}")
+
+    print(f"Found {len(csv_files)} CSV files")
+    dfs = []
+    for f in csv_files:
+        df = pd.read_csv(f)
+        dfs.append(df)
+        print(f"  Loaded: {f.name}")
+
+    return pd.concat(dfs, ignore_index=True)
+
+
 def main():
     parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Generate leaderboard tables from CSV summaries in the fev repo")
     parser.add_argument(
@@ -149,14 +165,23 @@ def main():
         default="main",
         help=f"Git commit SHA or branch name in the {GITHUB_REPO} repository (default: main)",
     )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--local",
+        type=Path,
+        help="Path to a local directory containing result CSV files (skips GitHub fetching)",
+    )
     args = parser.parse_args()
 
     # Create tables directory
     tables_dir = Path("tables")
     tables_dir.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
 
-    print(f"Loading summaries from {GITHUB_REPO} at commit {args.commit}...")
-    summaries = load_summaries_from_github(args.commit)
+    if args.local:
+        print(f"Loading summaries from local path: {args.local}")
+        summaries = load_summaries_from_local(args.local)
+    else:
+        print(f"Loading summaries from {GITHUB_REPO} at commit {args.commit}...")
+        summaries = load_summaries_from_github(args.commit)
 
     # Save raw summaries for on-the-fly subset computation
     summaries.to_csv(tables_dir / "summaries.csv", index=False)

src/strings.py

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ LEGEND = """
 TABLE_INFO = f"""
 The leaderboard summarizes the performance of all models evaluated on the 100 tasks comprising **fev-bench**. More details available in the [paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26468).
 
-Model names are colored by type: <span style='color: {COLORS["dl_text"]}; font-weight: bold;'>Deep Learning</span> and <span style='color: {COLORS["st_text"]}; font-weight: bold;'>Statistical</span>.
+Model names are colored by type: <span style='color: {COLORS["pretrained_text"]}; font-weight: bold;'>Pretrained</span>, <span style='color: {COLORS["task_specific_text"]}; font-weight: bold;'>Task-specific</span>, and <span style='color: {COLORS["statistical_text"]}; font-weight: bold;'>Statistical</span>.
 
 The full matrix $E_{{rj}}$ with the error of each model $j$ on task $r$ is available at the bottom of the page.
 

src/utils.py

@@ -6,9 +6,9 @@ import pandas.io.formats.style
 # Color constants - all colors defined in one place
 
 COLORS = {
-    "dl_text": "#5A7FA5",
-    "st_text": "#A5795A",
-    # "st_text": "#666666",
+    "pretrained_text": "#5A7FA5",
+    "task_specific_text": "#7B5A9A",
+    "statistical_text": "#A5795A",
     "bar_fill": "#8d5eb7",
     "error_bar": "#222222",
     "point": "#111111",
@@ -26,52 +26,60 @@ HEATMAP_COLOR_SCHEME = "purplegreen"
 # Model configuration: (url, org, zero_shot, model_type)
 MODEL_CONFIG = {
     # Chronos Models
-    "chronos_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-t5-tiny", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos_mini": ("amazon/chronos-t5-mini", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos_small": ("amazon/chronos-t5-small", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos_base": ("amazon/chronos-t5-base", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos_large": ("amazon/chronos-t5-large", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos_bolt_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-tiny", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos_bolt_mini": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-mini", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos_bolt_small": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-small", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos_bolt_base": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos-bolt": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "DL"),
-    "chronos-2": ("amazon/chronos-2", "AWS", True, "DL"),
+    "chronos_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-t5-tiny", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos_mini": ("amazon/chronos-t5-mini", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos_small": ("amazon/chronos-t5-small", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos_base": ("amazon/chronos-t5-base", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos_large": ("amazon/chronos-t5-large", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos_bolt_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-tiny", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos_bolt_mini": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-mini", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos_bolt_small": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-small", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos_bolt_base": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos-bolt": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
+    "chronos-2": ("amazon/chronos-2", "AWS", True, "pretrained"),
     # Moirai Models
-    "moirai_large": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-large", "Salesforce", True, "DL"),
-    "moirai_base": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-base", "Salesforce", True, "DL"),
-    "moirai_small": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "DL"),
-    "moirai-2.0": ("Salesforce/moirai-2.0-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "DL"),
+    "moirai_large": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-large", "Salesforce", True, "pretrained"),
+    "moirai_base": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-base", "Salesforce", True, "pretrained"),
+    "moirai_small": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "pretrained"),
+    "moirai-2.0": ("Salesforce/moirai-2.0-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "pretrained"),
     # TimesFM Models
-    "timesfm": ("google/timesfm-1.0-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "DL"),
-    "timesfm-2.0": ("google/timesfm-2.0-500m-pytorch", "Google", True, "DL"),
-    "timesfm-2.5": ("google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "DL"),
+    "timesfm": ("google/timesfm-1.0-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "pretrained"),
+    "timesfm-2.0": ("google/timesfm-2.0-500m-pytorch", "Google", True, "pretrained"),
+    "timesfm-2.5": ("google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "pretrained"),
     # Toto Models
-    "toto-1.0": ("Datadog/Toto-Open-Base-1.0", "Datadog", True, "DL"),
+    "toto-1.0": ("Datadog/Toto-Open-Base-1.0", "Datadog", True, "pretrained"),
     # Other Models
-    "tirex": ("NX-AI/TiRex", "NX-AI", True, "DL"),
-    "tabpfn-ts": ("Prior-Labs/TabPFN-v2-reg", "Prior Labs", True, "DL"),
-    "sundial-base": ("thuml/sundial-base-128m", "Tsinghua University", True, "DL"),
-    "ttm-r2": ("ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2", "IBM", True, "DL"),
-    # Task-specific models
+    "tirex": ("NX-AI/TiRex", "NX-AI", True, "pretrained"),
+    "tabpfn-ts": ("Prior-Labs/TabPFN-v2-reg", "Prior Labs", True, "pretrained"),
+    "sundial-base": ("thuml/sundial-base-128m", "Tsinghua University", True, "pretrained"),
+    "ttm-r2": ("ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2", "IBM", True, "pretrained"),
+    "flowstate": ("ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-flowstate-r1", "IBM", True, "pretrained"),
+    # GluonTS Models
+    "deepar": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"),
+    "tft": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"),
+    "patchtst": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"),
+    # MLForecast Models
+    "lightgbm": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/mlforecast", "—", False, "task-specific"),
+    "catboost": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/mlforecast", "—", False, "task-specific"),
+    # Statistical models
     "stat. ensemble": (
         "https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/",
         "—",
         False,
-        "ST",
+        "statistical",
     ),
-    "autoarima": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"),
-    "autotheta": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"),
-    "autoets": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"),
-    "seasonalnaive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"),
+    "autoarima": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"),
+    "autotheta": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"),
+    "autoets": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"),
+    "seasonalnaive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"),
     "seasonal naive": (
         "https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/",
         "—",
         False,
-        "ST",
+        "statistical",
     ),
-    "drift": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"),
-    "naive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"),
+    "drift": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"),
+    "naive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"),
 }
 
 
@@ -126,11 +134,18 @@ def get_model_type(model_name):
     return config[3] if config else "—"
 
 
+MODEL_TYPE_COLORS = {
+    "pretrained": "pretrained_text",
+    "task-specific": "task_specific_text",
+    "statistical": "statistical_text",
+}
+
+
 def highlight_model_type_color(cell):
     config = MODEL_CONFIG.get(cell.lower())
     if config:
-        color = COLORS["dl_text"] if config[3] == "DL" else COLORS["st_text"]
-        return f"font-weight: bold; color: {color}"
+        color_key = MODEL_TYPE_COLORS.get(config[3], "text_default")
+        return f"font-weight: bold; color: {COLORS[color_key]}"
     return "font-weight: bold"
 
 

tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Toto-1.0,91.42857142857143,41.8883400084654,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,89.64285714285714,42.5157996441094,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,40.26605685743614,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,77.14285714285714,38.09940067233815,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,35.579899495667256,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0
-Sundial-Base,61.07142857142858,34.44493255866505,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,59.285714285714285,30.890375999745544,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,57.857142857142854,31.63477113942893,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,33.75,10.28649321258931,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0
-AutoARIMA,32.32142857142858,11.154754181413495,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0
-AutoTheta,27.500000000000004,6.832233342669413,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,24.107142857142858,9.00813293024486,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0
-Naive,23.214285714285715,-25.50199780067157,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,15.892857142857144,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0
-Drift,8.928571428571429,-32.85429096552939,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,92.00000000000001,41.88927928450025,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,90.0,42.51579967639686,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,84.50000000000001,40.26605676264323,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,79.5,38.09940061802194,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,66.25000000000001,35.5798994200739,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0
+FlowState,63.5,30.68598311802213,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0
+TFT,61.87499999999999,34.39379489295074,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,61.0,34.444932595485724,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,60.24999999999999,34.304846616783294,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,59.25,30.890375949929528,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,55.49999999999999,31.182648441489537,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,52.49999999999999,28.99041616417205,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,47.0,25.641579380120593,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,39.49999999999999,21.217567102831968,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,31.375000000000004,12.457381191619765,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0
+AutoARIMA,28.125,13.156560456056853,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0
+AutoTheta,20.75,6.832233363582574,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,20.375,9.008132945543156,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0
+Naive,17.0,-25.50199781747715,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,13.25,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0
+Drift,6.500000000000002,-32.85429098273796,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Toto-1.0,91.78571428571428,63.05871546601058,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,91.42857142857143,63.92789671191335,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,83.57142857142857,61.98663044796851,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,80.35714285714285,60.87156591539495,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,68.21428571428572,58.41610987284718,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0
-Sundial-Base,59.64285714285715,56.647735223836015,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,58.57142857142858,54.85929055283013,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,57.50000000000001,53.05789136035014,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,38.03571428571428,32.58752067086065,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0
-Stat. Ensemble,34.82142857142856,20.1052436267542,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0
-AutoETS,28.035714285714285,-26.853793211441058,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0
-AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,-2.1145171067117996,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,19.107142857142854,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0
-Naive,13.571428571428573,-102.14853969808834,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0
-Drift,3.214285714285715,-110.2431874466197,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,93.0,63.05875031595707,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,91.24999999999999,63.92789670076326,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,85.50000000000001,61.98663035039822,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,82.5,60.871565834690514,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,70.25,58.416109773202194,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0
+FlowState,67.0,55.917373913965896,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,63.37499999999999,56.65838528437654,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0
+TFT,62.74999999999999,56.101100728840805,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,59.25,54.85929046462743,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,58.750000000000014,56.64773521043558,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,56.25,54.882167458139385,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,51.12500000000001,50.20430422932948,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,42.75000000000001,46.25315473529981,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,34.75,40.369919076130486,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,33.87500000000001,34.1099179045811,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0
+Stat. Ensemble,30.375000000000004,21.741616773476768,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0
+AutoETS,21.624999999999996,-26.853793282334813,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0
+AutoTheta,16.0,-2.114517117703918,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,15.875,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0
+Naive,10.75,-102.14853947002402,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0
+Drift,3.0000000000000004,-110.24318719846286,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,91.78571428571428,50.572763239812836,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,91.07142857142858,47.121114882947566,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,81.42857142857142,46.247719637805126,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,77.49999999999999,44.52063533547439,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,67.5,42.792548583451826,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,66.78571428571429,43.22422155533027,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,60.71428571428571,39.893668788246494,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,60.71428571428571,41.96635843416393,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,32.32142857142857,15.58065226385924,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0
-AutoARIMA,28.392857142857142,14.643401272886948,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0
-AutoETS,23.75,5.6618608592632125,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0
-AutoTheta,23.57142857142857,12.660865629460227,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0
-Naive,23.21428571428571,4.49837332329478,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,12.321428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0
-Drift,8.928571428571429,-1.7537851144645122,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,92.25000000000001,47.09252281338565,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,91.50000000000003,50.57276323971893,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,84.50000000000001,46.24771958720855,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,79.25,44.520635260445665,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,70.0,44.39308253523333,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,68.25,42.79254856807111,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,63.25000000000001,42.304181829008726,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,61.999999999999986,42.75818805959519,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,61.5,39.89366883509092,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,61.5,41.966358434053696,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
+TFT,58.62499999999999,37.9920627846737,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,49.25000000000001,34.58752644878078,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,47.00000000000001,31.125782577257844,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,39.0,27.03716130150796,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,28.625,17.59542897915567,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0
+AutoARIMA,24.874999999999996,16.5309827995087,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0
+AutoETS,19.124999999999996,5.6618608202705705,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0
+AutoTheta,17.25,12.660865320459136,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0
+Naive,16.25,4.49837321934039,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0
+Drift,6.0,-1.7537853153904326,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,92.5,66.94397676110452,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,90.35714285714286,64.45690397421868,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285712,63.753748722726,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,80.71428571428571,62.74382048051918,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,68.92857142857143,61.08750955081813,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,65.00000000000001,59.171399643395425,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,60.357142857142854,58.158162956775406,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,58.928571428571445,59.213728716592804,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,36.25,33.35224855510223,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0
-Stat. Ensemble,32.67857142857142,20.842955409190168,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0
-AutoETS,24.82142857142857,-39.99504769759261,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0
-AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,7.361982670066736,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,18.035714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0
-Naive,13.214285714285715,-64.97889014234586,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0
-Drift,3.9285714285714293,-71.7471743876533,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,92.75000000000003,66.94397676250325,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,91.5,64.46135334372015,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,84.50000000000001,63.7537487246866,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,82.99999999999999,62.74382048246822,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,73.25000000000001,62.649468493586056,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,72.0,61.08750954950368,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0
+PatchTST,65.12499999999999,59.71037333425973,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0
+TFT,61.74999999999999,55.556509382143545,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,60.25,58.15816295699815,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,59.999999999999986,58.432181218600874,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,57.50000000000001,59.21372871831863,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,50.62500000000002,50.79429174981283,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,42.5,46.843426009989976,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,35.75000000000001,40.70772252024998,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,31.375000000000004,34.821696297938075,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0
+Stat. Ensemble,27.125,22.34504540092107,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0
+AutoETS,18.125,-39.995047645386684,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0
+AutoTheta,15.499999999999996,7.361982676335321,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,14.375000000000002,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0
+Naive,9.75,-64.9788901369484,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0
+Drift,3.2499999999999996,-71.7471743825873,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv

@@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.063,0.027
 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.02,0.072
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.061,0.027,0.114
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.053,0.164
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.061,0.027,0.114
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.052,0.164
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.162,0.041,0.286
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.071,0.159
 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.037,0.182
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.034,0.185
 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.094,0.224
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.15,0.075,0.231
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.266,0.45
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.264,0.448
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.295,0.468
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.267,0.469
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.377,0.689
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.529
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.414,0.702
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.156,0.082,0.237
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.123,0.255
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.136,0.34
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.17,0.377
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.244,0.439
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.528
 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.011,-0.028,0.059
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,0.009,0.071
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.022,0.128
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.168
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.171,0.067,0.29
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.124,0.065,0.193
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.123,0.07,0.182
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.065,0.189
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.101,0.231
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.092,0.234
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.272,0.454
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.266,0.453
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.296,0.47
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.281,0.468
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.386,0.689
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.165,0.099,0.241
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.13,0.258
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.227,0.129,0.346
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.186,0.379
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.247,0.444
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.331,0.534
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.421,0.704
 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.078,0.02
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.077,-0.009
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.0,0.077
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.115
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.138,0.03,0.267
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.09,0.017,0.163
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.041,0.137
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.091,0.037,0.142
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.136,0.068,0.199
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.126,0.059,0.207
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.261,0.415
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.254,0.415
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.283,0.436
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.268,0.433
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.366,0.676
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.065,0.213
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.112,0.209
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.114,0.296
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.161,0.341
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.234,0.407
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.318,0.501
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.402,0.69
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.065,-0.129,-0.028
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.065,-0.129,-0.028
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.146,-0.022
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.083,0.0
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.039,0.014,0.065
+TiRex,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.107,-0.02,0.236
+TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,-0.02,0.121
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,-0.026,0.115
+TiRex,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.058,-0.029,0.118
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.038,0.166
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.018,0.172
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.233,0.392
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.231,0.382
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.412
-TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.235,0.41
-TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.507,0.342,0.658
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.101,0.027,0.176
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.082,0.178
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.1,0.259
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.214,0.136,0.316
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.211,0.384
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.295,0.476
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.385,0.676
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.056
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.055
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.202,-0.056
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.13,-0.036
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.041,-0.07,-0.015
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.062,0.201
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.018,-0.08,0.104
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.017,-0.056,0.065
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.019,-0.064,0.081
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.425,0.825,0.068,-0.002,0.135
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.02,0.138
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.282,0.201,0.366
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.275,0.203,0.354
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.237,0.386
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.292,0.208,0.382
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.487,0.322,0.638
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.064,-0.007,0.143
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,0.044,0.145
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.134,0.067,0.219
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.182,0.102,0.29
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.264,0.181,0.354
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.356,0.268,0.451
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.369,0.657
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.193,-0.401,-0.043
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.206,-0.408,-0.072
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.16,-0.363,-0.031
+FlowState,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.12,-0.308,0.02
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.251,0.058
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.057,-0.249,0.076
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.057,-0.195,0.034
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.055,-0.227,0.056
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.003,-0.136,0.112
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.007,-0.123,0.099
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.165,0.147
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.068,-0.138,0.239
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.12,-0.029,0.25
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.208,0.067,0.328
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.307,0.147,0.442
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.129,-0.188,-0.076
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.141,-0.239,-0.069
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.098,-0.194,-0.017
+TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.06,-0.138,0.02
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.117,0.074
+TFT,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.053,-0.082,0.2
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.1,0.085
+TFT,PatchTST,0.575,0.375,0.8,0.001,-0.11,0.092
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.051,-0.051,0.135
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.047,-0.059,0.154
+TFT,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,-0.018,0.182
+TFT,DeepAR,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.118,0.022,0.265
+TFT,LightGBM,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.167,0.04,0.319
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.251,0.14,0.37
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.824,1.0,0.344,0.234,0.473
 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.223,-0.038
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.14,-0.222,-0.075
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.159,-0.043
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.059,-0.129,0.025
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.018,-0.069,0.053
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.054,-0.035,0.163
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.093,0.091
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.049,0.047
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.051,-0.023,0.126
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.041,-0.034,0.11
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.269,0.182,0.361
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.262,0.175,0.353
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.22,0.377
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.379
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.322,0.626
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.047,-0.03,0.119
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.077,0.0,0.151
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.118,0.023,0.231
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.168,0.074,0.284
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.251,0.159,0.35
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.344,0.246,0.453
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.358,0.646
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.131,-0.227,-0.035
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.234,-0.07
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.1,-0.166,-0.038
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.061,-0.134,0.028
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.02,-0.089,0.06
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.052,-0.059,0.185
+PatchTST,TFT,0.425,0.2,0.625,-0.001,-0.101,0.099
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.049,0.046
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.2,0.65,0.049,-0.039,0.137
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.045,-0.055,0.144
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,-0.003,0.155
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.117,0.017,0.235
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.166,0.07,0.287
+PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.725,1.0,0.25,0.165,0.344
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.343,0.237,0.456
 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.288,-0.104
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.3,-0.112
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.157,-0.248,-0.073
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.198,-0.039
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.575,-0.073,-0.156,0.002
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.003,-0.127,0.12
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.053,-0.156,0.049
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.054,-0.144,0.022
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.052,-0.159,0.037
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.128,0.086
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.23,0.124,0.336
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.222,0.121,0.337
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.353
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.24,0.131,0.358
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.449,0.297,0.601
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.119,0.091
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.027,-0.069,0.119
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.071,-0.053,0.212
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.123,0.02,0.247
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.211,0.106,0.324
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.185,0.434
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.341,0.624
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.176,-0.301,-0.081
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.102
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.144,-0.261,-0.063
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.104,-0.208,-0.019
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.161,0.019
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.043,-0.123,0.033
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.095,0.114
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.184,-0.311,-0.09
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.197,-0.318,-0.11
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.152,-0.27,-0.07
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.112,-0.214,-0.028
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.068,-0.167,0.007
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.007,-0.11,0.109
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.049,-0.182,0.056
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.05,-0.135,0.029
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.048,-0.168,0.053
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.1,0.106
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.095,0.36
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.231,0.096,0.351
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.266,0.154,0.375
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.249,0.114,0.367
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.455,0.285,0.6
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.316,0.178,0.443
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.485,0.326,0.621
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.817,-0.362
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.833,-0.374
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.502,-0.711,-0.353
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.449,-0.646,-0.304
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.393,-0.578,-0.251
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.369,-0.564,-0.223
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.298,-0.505,-0.141
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.312,-0.562,-0.106
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,-0.093,0.135
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.075,-0.055,0.195
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.126,-0.001,0.259
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.214,0.071,0.347
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.312,0.171,0.441
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.222,-0.342,-0.14
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.235,-0.347,-0.15
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.189,-0.264,-0.127
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.147,-0.217,-0.09
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.102,-0.17,-0.046
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.024,-0.172,0.142
+CatBoost,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.082,-0.223,0.018
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.083,-0.177,-0.0
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.081,-0.183,0.003
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.027,-0.135,0.064
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.157,0.085
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.045,-0.055,0.142
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.099,0.036,0.185
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.189,0.115,0.265
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.29,0.213,0.377
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.28,-0.514,-0.157
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.294,-0.529,-0.148
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.421,-0.129
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.201,-0.35,-0.111
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.154,-0.28,-0.072
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.073,-0.315,0.122
+DeepAR,TFT,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.133,-0.361,-0.022
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.134,-0.301,-0.024
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.132,-0.307,-0.018
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.076,-0.27,0.05
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.081,-0.242,0.053
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.047,-0.165,0.053
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.056,-0.065,0.198
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.151,0.055,0.254
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.256,0.171,0.346
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.604,-0.205
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.371,-0.61,-0.228
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.319,-0.518,-0.192
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.273,-0.462,-0.158
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.223,-0.409,-0.113
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.137,-0.333,0.029
+LightGBM,TFT,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.201,-0.469,-0.041
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.202,-0.397,-0.08
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.199,-0.402,-0.075
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.14,-0.329,-0.02
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.145,-0.349,0.001
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.109,-0.227,-0.037
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.059,-0.247,0.061
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.1,0.011,0.184
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.212,0.108,0.31
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.784,-0.322
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.799,-0.328
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.687,-0.306
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.625,-0.267
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.359,-0.549,-0.221
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.263,-0.487,-0.071
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.334,-0.588,-0.163
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.335,-0.537,-0.189
+Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.125,0.0,0.275,-0.333,-0.525,-0.197
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.267,-0.479,-0.119
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.272,-0.532,-0.077
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.233,-0.361,-0.13
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.177,-0.34,-0.058
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.111,-0.225,-0.011
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.475,0.274,0.675,-0.01,-0.058,0.025
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,-0.013,0.087
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.014,-0.091,0.087
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.285,0.06,0.51
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.775,0.624,0.925,0.103,-0.009,0.19
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.325,0.11,0.536
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.811,-0.358
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.546,-0.83,-0.363
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.708,-0.341
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.619,-0.301
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.379,-0.548,-0.255
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.355,-0.545,-0.212
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.286,-0.508,-0.137
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.3,-0.541,-0.106
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.525,0.325,0.726,0.01,-0.026,0.055
-AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.046,-0.017,0.107
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.725,0.549,0.9,0.024,-0.086,0.103
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.292,0.063,0.513
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.675,0.95,0.112,0.008,0.197
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.331,0.115,0.536
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.603,-0.881,-0.419
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.887,-0.421
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.774,-0.394
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.701,-0.356
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.628,-0.31
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.606,-0.282
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.348,-0.546,-0.206
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.363,-0.6,-0.182
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.096,0.013
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.049,-0.12,0.017
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.024,-0.139,0.055
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.258,0.05,0.468
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.068,-0.06,0.171
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.299,0.104,0.491
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.883,-0.364
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.881,-0.391
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.762,-0.366
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.695,-0.307
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.412,-0.619,-0.262
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.388,-0.611,-0.225
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.317,-0.559,-0.151
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.331,-0.581,-0.129
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.014,-0.096,0.083
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.1,0.451,-0.024,-0.115,0.079
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.058,0.122
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,Naive,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.275,0.032,0.5
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.026,0.154
-AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.315,0.081,0.528
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.16,-2.211,-0.604
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.183,-2.214,-0.628
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.101,-2.085,-0.578
-Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.027,-1.923,-0.52
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.948,-1.762,-0.475
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.673,-0.476
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.816,-1.505,-0.423
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.836,-1.501,-0.399
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.399,-1.041,-0.063
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.413,-1.052,-0.067
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.347,-0.881,-0.053
-Naive,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.379,-1.0,-0.033
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,-0.255,-0.874,0.087
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.031,0.085
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.122,-0.477
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.675,0.95,0.125,0.01,0.21
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.121,-0.477
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.148,-0.496
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-1.003,-0.466
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.909,-0.418
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.552,-0.822,-0.365
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.443,-0.793,-0.172
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.075,0.0,0.176,-0.524,-0.897,-0.305
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.525,-0.83,-0.326
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.522,-0.838,-0.31
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.447,-0.766,-0.228
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.463,-0.796,-0.216
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.075,0.376,-0.115,-0.235,0.009
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.175,0.05,0.325,-0.126,-0.245,-0.008
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.073,-0.206,0.057
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.181,-0.027
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,0.203,-0.096,0.466
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.453,-0.788,-0.206
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.408,-0.606,-0.271
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.345,-0.53,-0.206
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.269,-0.45,-0.122
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.175,0.05,0.325,-0.142,-0.265,-0.01
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.247,-0.04,0.497
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.286,-2.359,-0.705
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.311,-2.381,-0.728
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.224,-2.223,-0.673
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.146,-2.086,-0.627
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.913,-0.584
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.828,-0.559
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.922,-1.659,-0.517
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.943,-1.639,-0.484
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.481,-1.157,-0.124
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.495,-1.156,-0.13
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.426,-0.966,-0.116
-Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.46,-1.12,-0.088
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.093,-0.032
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.329,-0.989,0.038
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.08,0.018
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.024,0.076
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.025,0.076
 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,0.022,0.104
 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.064,0.169
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.071,0.211
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.162,0.04,0.284
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.158,0.096,0.217
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.055,0.221
 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.182,0.124,0.236
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.291
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.369,0.537
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.448,0.619
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.666,0.482,0.815
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.54,0.72
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.521,0.73
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.817,0.735,0.877
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.824,0.744,0.882
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.072,0.211
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.112,0.249
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.17,0.364
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.264,0.377
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.3,0.483
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.352,0.531
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.52,0.73
 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.018,0.074
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.017,0.09
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.078,0.024,0.139
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.069,0.2
-Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.182,0.078,0.296
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.178,0.097,0.258
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.168,0.103,0.231
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.134,0.261
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.232,0.162,0.3
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.381,0.55
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.47,0.623
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.674,0.501,0.819
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.555,0.727
+Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.2,0.145,0.253
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.276,0.172,0.38
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.271,0.39
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.318,0.493
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.362,0.541
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.533,0.735
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.822,0.746,0.879
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.828,0.756,0.883
 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.029,-0.082,0.024
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.099,-0.017
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.014,0.08
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.143
-TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.165
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.138,0.034,0.263
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.134,0.04,0.217
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.123,0.058,0.187
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.158,0.095,0.217
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.19,0.124,0.257
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.367,0.511
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.451,0.594
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.476,0.811
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.534,0.71
+TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.165
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.157,0.094,0.222
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.237,0.142,0.329
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.245,0.344
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.285,0.455
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.346,0.5
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.519,0.713
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.812,0.731,0.872
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.819,0.742,0.877
 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.059,-0.116,-0.023
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.162,-0.025
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.086,0.013
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.09
-TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.013,0.151
+TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,-0.021,0.241
+TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.109,0.017,0.181
+TiRex,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,-0.003,0.171
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.073,0.186
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.166,0.079,0.247
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.343,0.497
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.425,0.585
-TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.453,0.808
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.513,0.698
+TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.013,0.151
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.133,0.061,0.202
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.214,0.14,0.296
+TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.23,0.322
+TiRex,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.273,0.435
+TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.323,0.488
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.499,0.709
-TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.806,0.72,0.869
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.814,0.729,0.874
 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.126,-0.203,-0.068
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.249,-0.074
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.167,-0.039
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.063,-0.099,-0.03
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.041,-0.045,0.091
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.057,-0.083,0.184
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.053,-0.052,0.142
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.041,-0.065,0.115
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.017,0.14
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.114,0.03,0.194
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.305,0.459
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.48,0.391,0.559
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.628,0.423,0.798
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.593,0.49,0.673
+Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.041,-0.045,0.091
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,-0.003,0.155
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.165,0.091,0.246
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.226,0.167,0.288
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.303,0.222,0.406
+Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.286,0.449
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.469,0.689
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.794,0.704,0.859
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.802,0.716,0.864
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.268,-0.077
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134
-Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.14,-0.198,-0.085
-Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.108,-0.178,-0.013
-Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.043,-0.1,0.043
-Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.037,0.117
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,0.006,0.138
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.281,0.436
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.378,0.534
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.404,0.793
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.487,0.657
-Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.454,0.668
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.704,0.848
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.794,0.716,0.854
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.31,-0.142
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.193,-0.397,-0.041
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.222,-0.421,-0.084
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.16,-0.356,-0.035
+FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.127,-0.318,0.02
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.06,-0.225,0.076
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.004,-0.165,0.115
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.017,-0.152,0.083
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.023,-0.108,0.139
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.017,-0.149,0.071
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.136,0.146
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.115,-0.045,0.263
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.026,0.285
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.261,0.132,0.377
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.331,0.195,0.442
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.559,0.424,0.672
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.188,-0.277,-0.106
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.217,-0.348,-0.107
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.155,-0.277,-0.042
+TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.221,-0.018
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.056,-0.166,0.049
+TFT,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.004,-0.13,0.142
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,PatchTST,0.575,0.375,0.8,-0.013,-0.135,0.076
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.073,0.104
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.013,-0.115,0.08
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.103,0.135
+TFT,DeepAR,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.118,0.024,0.252
+TFT,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.183,0.08,0.296
+TFT,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.264,0.142,0.413
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.334,0.218,0.454
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.561,0.416,0.683
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.173,-0.284,-0.058
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.202,-0.3,-0.115
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.14,-0.23,-0.061
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.108,-0.207,0.003
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.042,-0.129,0.061
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.017,-0.09,0.132
+PatchTST,TFT,0.425,0.2,0.625,0.013,-0.082,0.119
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.034,0.126
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.0,-0.051,0.051
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,-0.055,0.124
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.13,0.036,0.239
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.194,0.092,0.285
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.273,0.159,0.397
+PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.342,0.248,0.437
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.567,0.435,0.68
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.31,-0.141
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.352,-0.155
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.187,-0.277,-0.105
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.229,-0.079
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.162,-0.017
-Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.041,-0.133,0.036
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.161,0.097
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.116,0.068
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.042,-0.144,0.033
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.038,-0.082,0.139
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.33,0.236,0.434
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.435,0.328,0.531
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.597,0.372,0.786
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.558,0.453,0.645
+Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.041,-0.133,0.036
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.117,0.105
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.093,-0.005,0.208
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.077,0.242
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.243,0.147,0.355
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.315,0.215,0.421
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.67
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.777,0.686,0.844
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.7,0.851
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.271,-0.41,-0.151
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.429,-0.193
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.235,-0.346,-0.141
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.2,-0.328,-0.086
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.129,-0.24,-0.03
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.083,-0.161,-0.006
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.04,-0.162,0.076
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.267,-0.077
+Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134
+Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.14,-0.198,-0.085
+Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.108,-0.178,-0.013
+Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.043,-0.1,0.043
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.017,-0.076,0.129
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.012,-0.086,0.103
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.0,-0.053,0.049
+Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.037,0.117
+Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.039,-0.041,0.115
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,0.026,0.238
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.193,0.125,0.262
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.273,0.187,0.379
+Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.259,0.424
+Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.454,0.668
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.332,-0.126
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.251,-0.339,-0.17
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.187,-0.285,-0.104
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.153,-0.253,-0.065
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.085,-0.183,0.003
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.023,-0.171,0.12
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.156,0.093
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.141,0.053
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.117,0.105
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.13,0.04
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.205,0.404
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.412,0.312,0.505
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.586,0.354,0.779
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.54,0.433,0.639
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.531,0.407,0.643
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.681,0.835
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.696,0.841
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.825,-1.161,-0.584
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.222,-0.615
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.773,-1.043,-0.58
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-0.989,-0.521
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.848,-0.438
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.773,-0.392
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.493,-0.768,-0.309
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.677,-0.258
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.094,-0.029,0.217
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.161,0.06,0.257
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.243,0.125,0.369
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.315,0.196,0.422
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.669
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.571,-0.205
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.38,-0.614,-0.207
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.31,-0.491,-0.165
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.273,-0.42,-0.162
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.197,-0.326,-0.1
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.13,-0.357,0.043
+DeepAR,TFT,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.134,-0.336,-0.024
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.149,-0.315,-0.038
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.103,-0.263,0.005
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.149,-0.312,-0.027
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.104,-0.277,0.028
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.074,-0.05,0.187
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.165,0.046,0.308
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.15,0.332
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.502,0.353,0.633
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.606,-0.359
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.638,-0.372
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.524,-0.325
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.474,-0.299
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.292,-0.404,-0.201
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.399,-0.026
+CatBoost,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.224,-0.42,-0.087
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.24,-0.398,-0.102
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.191,-0.32,-0.084
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.24,-0.356,-0.143
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.191,-0.346,-0.064
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.079,-0.23,0.047
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.099,0.036,0.185
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.184,0.072,0.291
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.463,0.329,0.589
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.934,-0.429
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.653,-0.973,-0.466
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.569,-0.835,-0.398
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.524,-0.771,-0.376
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.434,-0.685,-0.285
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.353,-0.604,-0.152
+LightGBM,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.358,-0.703,-0.165
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.376,-0.659,-0.19
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.321,-0.55,-0.173
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.375,-0.609,-0.231
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.322,-0.586,-0.143
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.197,-0.445,-0.048
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.109,-0.227,-0.037
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.095,-0.08,0.229
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.404,0.231,0.555
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.784,-1.131,-0.544
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.827,-1.177,-0.569
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.733,-1.002,-0.528
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.684,-0.952,-0.476
+AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.816,-0.401
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.495,-0.794,-0.243
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.501,-0.831,-0.279
+AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.52,-0.778,-0.329
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.46,-0.729,-0.274
+AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.52,-0.737,-0.349
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.46,-0.731,-0.244
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.497,-0.176
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.226,-0.41,-0.077
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.105,-0.297,0.074
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.875,0.156,0.073,0.244
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.434,0.08,0.713
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.476
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.326,0.18,0.457
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.667,0.521,0.764
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.679,0.545,0.773
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.625,-0.811
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.215,-1.654,-0.887
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.466,-0.82
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.042,-1.411,-0.739
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.921,-1.267,-0.642
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.843,-1.145,-0.609
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.77,-1.134,-0.488
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.702,-1.019,-0.454
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.125,0.475,-0.185,-0.323,-0.078
-Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.363,-0.063,0.684
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.089,0.375
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.201,-0.013,0.369
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.605,0.443,0.725
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.465,0.735
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.991,-4.394,-0.932
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.072,-4.534,-1.004
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.92,-4.291,-0.907
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.837,-4.196,-0.83
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.688,-3.95,-0.734
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.595,-3.825,-0.677
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.484,-3.678,-0.591
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.414,-3.528,-0.549
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.767,-2.48,-0.087
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.569,-2.162,0.059
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.25,-1.708,0.289
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.269,-1.702,0.285
-AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.34,-0.612,0.679
-AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.363,-0.555,0.692
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.764,-2.575,-1.173
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.831,-2.661,-1.245
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.686,-2.451,-1.145
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.316,-1.054
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.456,-2.054,-0.962
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.355,-1.914,-0.951
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.262,-1.821,-0.828
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.175,-1.772,-0.765
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.515,-0.908,-0.255
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.278,-0.6,-0.097
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.2,-0.407,0.631
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.021,-0.413,0.245
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.495,0.359,0.605
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.514,0.382,0.62
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.709,-1.086
+AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.341,0.205,0.472
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.709,-1.085
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.77,-1.139
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.631,-2.486,-1.077
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.437,-0.997
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-2.214,-0.883
-Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.307,-2.016,-0.832
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.268,-2.052,-0.736
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.278,-2.153,-0.713
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.307,-2.121,-0.769
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.215,-2.027,-0.704
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.13,-1.801,-0.687
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.483,-0.841,-0.219
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.252,-0.585,0.013
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.212,-0.398,0.63
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.021,-0.325,0.292
+Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.307,-2.016,-0.832
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.216,-2.025,-0.703
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.008,-1.722,-0.547
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.861,-1.432,-0.49
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.677,-1.249,-0.301
+Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.518,-0.895,-0.258
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.505,0.274,0.671
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.524,0.302,0.688
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.472,-7.119,-2.772
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.604,-7.24,-2.94
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.318,-6.839,-2.721
-Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-4.166,-6.661,-2.569
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.861,-6.072,-2.376
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-5.597,-2.374
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.478,-5.427,-2.188
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.306,-5.057,-2.139
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.999,-3.24,-1.086
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.53,-2.642,-0.795
-Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.516,-2.117,0.38
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.98,-1.531,-0.56
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-1.021,-2.041,-0.378
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.057
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.691,-7.48,-2.9
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.828,-7.54,-3.102
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.531,-7.137,-2.871
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.373,-6.957,-2.696
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.056,-6.361,-2.518
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.85,-5.831,-2.522
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.658,-5.689,-2.332
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.479,-5.272,-2.287
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.119,-3.399,-1.198
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.632,-2.779,-0.87
-Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.569,-2.25,0.357
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.059,-1.634,-0.617
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-1.102,-2.206,-0.433
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.061,-0.024
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
+Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.07,-0.211,0.014
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.049,0.069
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,-0.002,0.1
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.12,0.172
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.014,0.139
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.083,0.012,0.143
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.076,-0.112,0.188
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.051,0.182
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.088,-0.012,0.164
+Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.082,0.222
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.191,0.124,0.268
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.144,0.35
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.275,0.174,0.398
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.266,0.464
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.58
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.066,-0.014,0.174
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.065,-0.014,0.173
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.03,0.14
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.109,0.032,0.209
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.111,0.049,0.183
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.059,0.226
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.129,0.084,0.186
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.143,0.087,0.216
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.137,0.061,0.205
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.259
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.099,0.198
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.319,0.51
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.312,0.531
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.341,0.599
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.333,0.532
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.382,0.572
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.203,0.088,0.331
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.169,0.326
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.282,0.158,0.409
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.222,0.429
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.295,0.505
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.388,0.617
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.42,0.599
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.07,-0.21,0.014
-Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.048,0.069
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,-0.0,0.1
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.076,0.017,0.14
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,-0.015,0.137
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.053,0.182
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.089,-0.011,0.164
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.473
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.29,0.482
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.315,0.574
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.314,0.488
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.353,0.545
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.581
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.397,0.565
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.016,-0.074,0.047
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.162,-0.031
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.017,-0.074,0.046
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.009,0.083
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,-0.09,0.123
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.101
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.053,0.014,0.094
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.068,0.034,0.105
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.061,-0.066,0.141
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.065,0.148
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.024,0.112
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.285,0.453
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.28,0.472
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.307,0.558
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.303,0.473
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.35,0.527
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.039,0.248
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.129,0.23
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.126,0.316
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.172,0.371
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.261,0.445
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.364,0.568
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.472,0.391,0.548
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,0.002
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.264,-0.033
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,0.0
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.091,0.009
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.002,-0.176,0.116
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,0.004,0.056
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.05,0.081
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,-0.012,0.083
+TiRex,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.031,-0.152,0.138
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.124
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,0.95,0.044,-0.063,0.112
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.258,0.427
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.265,0.443
-TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.412,0.283,0.547
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.286,0.45
-TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.419,0.321,0.511
+TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.0,0.22
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.152,0.107,0.198
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.194,0.118,0.28
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.24,0.158,0.347
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.239,0.42
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.35,0.545
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.377,0.533
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.051,-0.208,0.107
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.125,-0.224,-0.051
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.035,-0.141,0.083
+FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.131,0.149
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.093,0.164
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.036,-0.086,0.162
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.068,0.106
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.075,-0.004,0.187
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.042,-0.051,0.116
+FlowState,TFT,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.103,-0.059,0.259
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.15,0.054,0.264
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.193,0.023,0.35
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.238,0.134,0.354
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.226,0.433
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.326,0.558
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.081,-0.162,-0.014
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.292,-0.062
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.162,-0.017
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.064,-0.112,-0.025
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.029,-0.197,0.085
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.008,-0.075,0.05
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.008,-0.035,0.053
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.001,-0.174,0.1
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.003,0.096
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.014,-0.074,0.068
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.239,0.411
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.244,0.426
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.265,0.533
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.268,0.435
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.401,0.311,0.491
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.077,-0.033,0.206
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.08,0.173
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.169,0.095,0.251
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.216,0.129,0.33
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.219,0.401
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.333,0.532
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.36,0.513
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.149,-0.229,-0.091
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.159,0.015
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.056,-0.103,-0.015
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.023,-0.089,0.048
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.008,-0.053,0.07
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.091,-0.166,-0.012
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.167,-0.275,-0.095
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.073,-0.118,-0.035
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.04,-0.091,0.012
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.038,-0.193,0.079
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.009,-0.056,0.034
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.055,-0.022,0.125
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.022,-0.044,0.083
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.226,0.427
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.224,0.447
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.398,0.258,0.535
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.35,0.246,0.448
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.295,0.51
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.311,0.55
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.337,0.534
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.008,-0.175,0.096
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.04,-0.028,0.105
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.006,-0.077,0.073
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.07,-0.052,0.204
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.118,0.054,0.183
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.162,0.066,0.264
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.209,0.108,0.334
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.3,0.193,0.406
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.304,0.541
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.232,0.1
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.158,-0.258,-0.065
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.065,-0.165,0.062
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.032,-0.16,0.132
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.118,0.064
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.001,-0.111,0.148
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.008,-0.107,0.149
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.048,-0.064,0.191
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.014,-0.05,0.089
+PatchTST,TFT,0.525,0.3,0.75,0.077,-0.073,0.248
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.125,0.018,0.25
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.925,0.169,0.039,0.321
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.215,0.088,0.359
+PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.725,1.0,0.305,0.183,0.428
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.428,0.289,0.553
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.136,-0.223,-0.053
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.349,-0.115
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.137,-0.223,-0.056
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.174,-0.069
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.083,-0.141,-0.031
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.081,-0.231,0.004
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.106,-0.003
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.143,0.022
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.042,-0.117,0.028
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.05,-0.235,0.06
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.036,-0.131,0.028
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.207,0.384
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.204,0.41
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.23,0.509
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.234,0.407
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.464
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,-0.093,0.17
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.081,0.034,0.139
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.127,0.014,0.24
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.176,0.09,0.281
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.182,0.376
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.512
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.333,0.49
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.196,0.012
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.247,-0.11
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.196,0.011
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.126,-0.024
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.05,0.3,-0.046,-0.126,0.059
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.044,-0.131,0.048
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.014,-0.073,0.069
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.022,-0.09,0.042
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.006,-0.078,0.071
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.014,-0.098,0.047
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.034,-0.029,0.116
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.227,0.408
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.224,0.423
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.251,0.518
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.245,0.426
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.306,0.478
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.064,-0.048,0.195
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.113,0.042,0.19
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.157,0.056,0.275
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.205,0.1,0.327
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.201,0.399
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.312,0.53
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.347,0.507
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.708,-1.042,-0.469
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.898,-0.404
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.828,-0.398
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.746,-0.348
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.699,-0.314
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.746,-0.292
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.624,-0.261
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.688,-0.293
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.172,-0.286,-0.089
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.255,-0.494,-0.096
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.33,-0.041
+TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.118,-0.281,-0.0
+TFT,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.115,-0.35,0.056
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.084,-0.259,0.032
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.075,-0.256,0.049
+TFT,PatchTST,0.475,0.25,0.7,-0.083,-0.33,0.068
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.205,0.085
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.068,-0.242,0.046
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.052,-0.106,0.182
+TFT,DeepAR,0.625,0.425,0.8,0.1,-0.04,0.245
+TFT,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.15,-0.01,0.32
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.14,0.372
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.38,0.273,0.502
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.236,-0.366,-0.141
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.485,-0.203
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.298,-0.148
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.179,-0.247,-0.12
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.176,-0.359,-0.057
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.209,-0.087
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.134,-0.223,-0.057
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.143,-0.333,-0.019
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.088,-0.161,-0.035
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.127,-0.235,-0.044
+CatBoost,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.055,-0.223,0.096
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.05,-0.062,0.143
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.103,0.034,0.2
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.119,0.301
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.346,0.235,0.461
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.538,-0.169
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.393,-0.693,-0.187
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.281,-0.461,-0.144
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.241,-0.389,-0.134
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.239,-0.538,-0.023
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.204,-0.334,-0.104
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.194,-0.358,-0.07
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.25,0.075,0.45,-0.203,-0.474,-0.04
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.146,-0.316,-0.014
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.187,-0.379,-0.059
+DeepAR,TFT,0.375,0.2,0.575,-0.111,-0.324,0.039
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.053,-0.167,0.058
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.056,-0.071,0.22
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.825,0.65,0.975,0.164,0.057,0.278
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.311,0.207,0.415
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.379,-0.662,-0.211
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.751,-0.286
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.59,-0.208
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.315,-0.531,-0.187
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.312,-0.548,-0.155
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.275,-0.493,-0.149
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.265,-0.502,-0.121
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.275,-0.56,-0.096
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.214,-0.39,-0.099
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.257,-0.486,-0.111
+LightGBM,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.177,-0.471,0.009
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.115,-0.251,-0.035
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.059,-0.283,0.066
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.115,0.028,0.196
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.27,0.154,0.38
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.864,-0.362
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.667,-1.019,-0.418
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.533,-0.803,-0.353
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.485,-0.724,-0.314
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.763,-0.292
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.671,-0.281
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.428,-0.684,-0.24
+Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.125,0.0,0.275,-0.44,-0.749,-0.225
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.371,-0.603,-0.222
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.665,-0.251
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.329,-0.592,-0.163
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.26,-0.43,-0.135
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.175,0.025,0.35,-0.196,-0.386,-0.06
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.129,-0.243,-0.029
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.011,-0.045,0.063
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.105,-0.033,0.285
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.033,-0.007,0.072
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.116,0.037,0.193
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.156,0.072,0.236
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.17,0.096,0.237
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.133,-0.453
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.93,-0.408
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.895,-0.389
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.797,-0.361
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.744,-0.323
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.808,-0.289
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.694,-0.256
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.734,-0.288
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.011,-0.067,0.043
-AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.095,-0.068,0.276
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.023,-0.039,0.083
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.106,-0.005,0.204
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.146,0.061,0.226
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.161,0.062,0.25
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.909,-1.495,-0.517
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.784,-1.345,-0.461
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.755,-1.264,-0.444
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.7,-1.21,-0.394
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-1.141,-0.36
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.662,-1.151,-0.347
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-1.035,-0.299
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-1.074,-0.334
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.117,-0.399,0.032
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.105,-0.381,0.063
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.08,-0.32,0.051
-AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.012,-0.2,0.142
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.057,-0.196,0.202
-AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.073,-0.137,0.197
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.135,-0.5
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-0.955,-0.458
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.898,-0.434
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.574,-0.817,-0.401
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.527,-0.77,-0.366
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.538,-0.812,-0.326
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.453,-0.687,-0.305
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.741,-0.324
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.035,-0.077,0.007
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.023,-0.09,0.037
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.074,-0.054,0.242
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.085,0.008,0.16
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.127,0.043,0.209
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.077,0.202
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.338,-0.617
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.806,-1.198,-0.545
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.777,-1.112,-0.538
-Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.721,-1.045,-0.472
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.669,-0.964,-0.452
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.039,-0.417
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.589,-0.866,-0.392
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.646,-0.915,-0.441
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.131,-0.239,-0.038
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.119,-0.256,0.005
-Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.012,-0.166,0.167
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.093,-0.19,-0.008
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,0.045,-0.064,0.152
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.032,0.1
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.176,0.098,0.253
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.38,-0.588
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.023,-1.609,-0.634
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.891,-1.385,-0.588
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.313,-0.572
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.802,-1.198,-0.539
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.798,-1.26,-0.483
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.748,-1.138,-0.499
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.761,-1.22,-0.452
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.733,-1.18,-0.436
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.747,-1.237,-0.406
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-1.049,-0.418
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.13,-0.453
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.185,-0.309,-0.078
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.172,-0.293,-0.065
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.252,0.164
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.145,-0.264,-0.045
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,-0.047,-0.179,0.06
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.613,-1.008,-0.376
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.529,-0.855,-0.308
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.452,-0.709,-0.26
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.371,-0.612,-0.183
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.214,-0.339,-0.109
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.017,-0.096,0.115
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.492,-0.723
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.924,-1.3,-0.659
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.893,-1.214,-0.641
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.834,-1.143,-0.606
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.054,-0.562
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.792,-1.147,-0.508
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.96,-0.5
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.753,-1.028,-0.532
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.205,-0.311,-0.106
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.192,-0.333,-0.066
-Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.245,0.12
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.165,-0.253,-0.083
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.111,-0.033
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.018,-0.129,0.088
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv

@@ -3,224 +3,255 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.07,-0.014,0.185
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.088,0.033,0.155
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.113,0.032,0.222
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.115,0.05,0.188
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.066,0.248
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.134,0.247
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.18,0.08,0.27
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.256,0.118,0.395
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.134,0.3
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.205,0.141,0.274
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.145,0.236
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.412,0.597
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.505,0.655
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.573,0.855
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.566,0.707
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.328,0.194,0.454
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.313,0.448
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.357,0.536
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.393,0.591
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.669,0.582,0.746
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.8,0.757,0.837
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.808,0.765,0.845
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.075,-0.227,0.013
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.075,-0.227,0.014
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.019,-0.047,0.073
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.02,-0.047,0.073
 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.0,0.095
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.03,0.145
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.024,0.218
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.049,-0.131,0.178
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.029,0.145
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.118,-0.078,0.246
+Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.108,0.294
 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.21
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.024,0.201
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.398,0.544
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.473,0.628
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.535,0.843
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.616,0.541,0.683
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.562,0.725
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.726,0.829
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.793,0.736,0.838
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.145,0.066,0.217
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.024,0.2
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.182,0.386
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.275,0.395
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.317,0.505
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.379,0.537
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.563,0.725
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.097,-0.183,-0.034
 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.02,-0.079,0.045
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.018,0.086
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.104,0.121
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.116
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,0.044,0.188
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.1,-0.044,0.208
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.184,0.06,0.307
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.092,0.179
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.128,0.067,0.195
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.111,0.06,0.148
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.384,0.539
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.468,0.619
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.704,0.532,0.841
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.535,0.678
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.263,0.157,0.368
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.274,0.365
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.312,0.484
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.365,0.532
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.557,0.714
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.727,0.825
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.739,0.832
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.127,-0.285,-0.033
 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.105,-0.0
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.095,0.018
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.003,-0.19,0.122
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.043,0.019,0.07
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.087,-0.014,0.174
+TiRex,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.075,-0.133,0.211
+TiRex,TFT,0.85,0.7,0.95,0.162,0.034,0.285
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.11,0.064,0.155
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.104,0.027,0.178
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,-0.025,0.153
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.376,0.512
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.452,0.602
-TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.514,0.839
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.598,0.521,0.663
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.243,0.15,0.337
+TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.255,0.343
+TiRex,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.297,0.467
+TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.358,0.508
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.627,0.54,0.71
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.712,0.821
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.783,0.724,0.829
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.13,-0.232,-0.053
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.217,0.116
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.03,-0.137,0.094
+FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.003,-0.139,0.159
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.04,-0.089,0.189
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.056,0.185
+FlowState,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.16,-0.028,0.323
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.107,0.023,0.228
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.101,-0.03,0.222
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.084,0.002,0.154
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.241,0.063,0.401
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.297,0.215,0.392
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.37,0.279,0.47
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.309,0.537
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.538,0.704
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.177,-0.33,-0.071
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.169,-0.031
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.17,-0.03
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.074,-0.131,-0.029
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.044,-0.075,-0.02
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.042,-0.233,0.082
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.047,-0.055,0.137
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.034,-0.175,0.172
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.124,-0.012,0.26
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,0.975,0.07,0.023,0.118
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.064,-0.017,0.142
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.046,-0.056,0.104
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.347,0.496
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.423,0.589
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.494,0.835
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.498,0.651
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.209,0.118,0.304
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.268,0.22,0.319
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.261,0.45
+Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.327,0.491
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.523,0.693
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.764,0.7,0.813
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.715,0.821
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.235,-0.329,-0.154
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.149,-0.279,-0.025
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.126,-0.232,-0.046
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.096,-0.211,0.014
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.049,-0.159,0.053
-TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.024,-0.094,0.121
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.093,0.08
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.387,0.274,0.491
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.484,0.39,0.568
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.676,0.465,0.829
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.468,0.641
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.483,0.685
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.698,0.798
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.762,0.711,0.806
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.219,-0.369,-0.087
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.327,0.072
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.112,-0.262,0.042
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.081,-0.267,0.118
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.227,0.053
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.035,-0.208,0.149
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,TFT,0.425,0.225,0.625,0.093,-0.057,0.271
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.037,-0.124,0.209
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.6,0.95,0.031,-0.127,0.186
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.1,0.119
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.181,0.049,0.342
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.242,0.117,0.366
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.32,0.179,0.456
+PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.382,0.25,0.512
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.597,0.477,0.698
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.344,-0.652,-0.133
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.415,-0.121
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.226,-0.442,-0.064
+TFT,TiRex,0.15,0.05,0.3,-0.193,-0.399,-0.035
+TFT,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.19,-0.477,0.027
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.142,-0.351,0.012
+TFT,PatchTST,0.575,0.375,0.775,-0.103,-0.372,0.054
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.062,-0.262,0.087
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.069,-0.3,0.102
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.09,-0.29,0.057
+TFT,DeepAR,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.097,-0.054,0.233
+TFT,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.164,0.007,0.3
+TFT,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.25,0.086,0.416
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.318,0.222,0.425
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.556,0.443,0.658
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.429,-0.154
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.266,-0.097
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.267,-0.098
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.218,-0.101
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.123,-0.183,-0.069
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.12,-0.295,-0.023
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.025,0.301,-0.075,-0.134,-0.024
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.025,-0.137,0.086
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.264,0.11
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.059,-0.096,0.207
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.007,-0.108,0.094
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.026,-0.135,0.046
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.287,0.466
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.385,0.561
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.664,0.456,0.823
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.464,0.625
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.15,0.021,0.271
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.213,0.167,0.267
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.294,0.213,0.39
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.268,0.458
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.486,0.675
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.698,0.805
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.377,-0.164
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.17,-0.277,-0.07
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.147,-0.242,-0.072
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.116,-0.216,-0.027
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.285,0.029
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.068,-0.165,0.016
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.25,0.05,0.4,-0.032,-0.229,0.112
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.065,-0.114,0.231
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.007,-0.104,0.097
+TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.019,-0.118,0.067
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.155,0.02,0.291
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.218,0.128,0.299
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.299,0.185,0.424
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.362,0.252,0.466
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.475,0.679
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.309,-0.169
 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.251,-0.025
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.125,-0.173,-0.063
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.095,-0.18,0.025
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.092,-0.182,-0.002
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.048,-0.116,0.053
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.086,0.085
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.012,-0.135,0.091
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.082,-0.06,0.225
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.048,0.119
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.019,-0.071,0.106
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.302,0.48
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.404,0.566
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.475,0.826
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.48,0.633
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.171,0.043,0.303
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.233,0.171,0.301
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.312,0.219,0.422
+Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.28,0.471
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.504,0.674
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.702,0.798
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.715,0.808
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.016,-1.48,-0.701
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.195,-0.66
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.168,-0.623
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.05,-0.601
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.713,-0.984,-0.532
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.632,-0.965,-0.378
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.873,-0.403
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.922,-0.434
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.489,-0.831,-0.241
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.628,-0.222
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.358,-0.582,-0.186
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.321,-0.509,-0.177
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.317,-0.669,-0.067
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.265,-0.436,-0.133
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.221,-0.519,-0.052
+DeepAR,TFT,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.107,-0.304,0.051
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.176,-0.371,-0.021
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.184,-0.41,-0.02
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.206,-0.434,-0.045
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.074,-0.052,0.197
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.17,0.021,0.333
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.245,0.159,0.333
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.508,0.376,0.622
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.812,-0.455
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.653,-0.379
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.467,-0.575,-0.378
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.522,-0.342
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.423,-0.645,-0.274
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.366,-0.469,-0.281
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.319,-0.578,-0.133
+CatBoost,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.196,-0.428,-0.007
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.27,-0.365,-0.2
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.279,-0.426,-0.147
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.303,-0.43,-0.206
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.08,-0.245,0.049
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.103,0.034,0.2
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.184,0.073,0.298
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.468,0.349,0.58
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.155,-0.555
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.668,-1.02,-0.464
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.636,-0.937,-0.454
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.591,-0.875,-0.423
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.587,-0.887,-0.387
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.524,-0.817,-0.354
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.472,-0.84,-0.218
+LightGBM,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.334,-0.711,-0.095
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.417,-0.639,-0.271
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.426,-0.735,-0.227
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.454,-0.731,-0.281
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.205,-0.498,-0.021
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.115,-0.251,-0.035
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.09,-0.077,0.213
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.407,0.265,0.526
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.972,-1.444,-0.647
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.834,-1.16,-0.609
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.798,-1.136,-0.575
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.749,-1.031,-0.557
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.16,-0.448
+AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.675,-0.965,-0.486
+AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.618,-1.048,-0.334
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.467,-0.739,-0.286
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.844,-0.366
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.568,-0.874,-0.337
+AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.891,-0.389
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.325,-0.5,-0.189
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.226,-0.424,-0.079
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.099,-0.27,0.071
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.158,0.066,0.258
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.493,0.136,0.747
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.281,0.178,0.381
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.334,0.206,0.456
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.596,0.479,0.687
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.612,0.496,0.7
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.395,-1.901,-1.02
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.689,-0.897
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.624,-0.88
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.125,-1.511,-0.826
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.432,-0.734
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.939,-1.317,-0.639
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.892,-1.278,-0.626
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.941,-1.304,-0.678
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.188,-0.348,-0.07
-Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.432,0.004,0.725
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.146,0.088,0.213
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.208,-0.0,0.366
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.52,0.395,0.624
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.421,0.64
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.71,-5.874,-1.34
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.437,-5.367,-1.149
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.382,-5.287,-1.137
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.298,-5.196,-1.056
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.171,-5.048,-0.977
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.09,-4.847,-0.87
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.974,-4.644,-0.837
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.046,-4.752,-0.906
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.971,-2.951,-0.157
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.759,-2.642,-0.004
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.532,-2.194,0.136
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.4,-1.897,0.22
-AutoETS,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.097,-1.154,0.533
-AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.128,-1.084,0.55
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.802,-2.419,-1.302
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.606,-2.154,-1.18
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.107,-1.153
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.487,-1.971,-1.087
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.381,-1.863,-0.992
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.786,-0.878
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.214,-1.668,-0.867
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.271,-1.728,-0.922
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.39,-0.615,-0.216
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.17,-0.271,-0.097
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.347,-0.157,0.687
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.074,-0.208,0.273
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.438,0.308,0.555
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.461,0.336,0.574
+AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.348,0.228,0.464
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.025,-2.936,-1.394
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.813,-2.641,-1.285
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-2.639,-1.287
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.759,-2.495,-1.259
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.684,-2.448,-1.175
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.677,-2.381,-1.163
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-2.259,-1.095
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-2.176,-0.936
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.482,-2.307,-0.914
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.25,-1.926,-0.795
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.073,-0.945
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.406,-2.118,-0.903
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.452,-2.065,-1.017
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.5,-0.839,-0.259
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.263,-0.577,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.286,-0.282,0.655
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.079,-0.376,0.172
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.032,-1.647,-0.604
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.881,-1.379,-0.536
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.687,-1.108,-0.36
+Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.534,-0.865,-0.295
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.394,0.19,0.555
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.418,0.219,0.575
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.991,-5.118,-3.118
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.642,-4.863,-2.647
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.552,-4.721,-2.668
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.428,-4.591,-2.469
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.24,-4.339,-2.329
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.041,-3.961,-2.314
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.943,-3.911,-2.141
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.045,-3.943,-2.361
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.475,-2.196,-0.918
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.084,-1.66,-0.654
-Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.107,-1.141,0.536
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.781,-1.246,-0.445
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-0.65,-1.249,-0.234
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.06
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.196,-5.431,-3.251
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.832,-5.185,-2.788
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.738,-4.957,-2.832
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.61,-4.86,-2.621
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.414,-4.579,-2.506
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.207,-4.157,-2.457
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.105,-4.13,-2.31
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.211,-4.217,-2.506
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.577,-2.334,-0.985
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.17,-1.781,-0.726
-Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.147,-1.224,0.52
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.854,-1.347,-0.507
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.717,-1.355,-0.28
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.064,-0.024
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Stat. Ensemble,86.30952380952381,38.477174892111854,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,75.5952380952381,36.87592043229662,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,72.61904761904762,36.307128150625054,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,70.23809523809524,35.90887063284529,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,62.5,32.38399314015735,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-AutoTheta,55.952380952380956,32.52926187728524,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,55.35714285714286,33.893658153503736,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0
-Drift,54.76190476190476,29.639454010750132,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,50.5952380952381,32.83344752168508,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,44.04761904761905,28.784283550853363,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,40.476190476190474,30.133730037212626,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,39.285714285714285,28.236498726371508,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-Sundial-Base,21.428571428571434,19.709514878708077,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
-Naive,13.69047619047619,15.593612409564518,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,86.25,38.47702197421158,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,76.25,36.87592044073875,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,75.41666666666667,36.739370201928836,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,72.91666666666667,36.307128273958256,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,70.83333333333333,35.908870624227376,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,69.58333333333333,35.21482359572895,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+CatBoost,69.16666666666667,35.982559330359685,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,60.833333333333314,32.41516602344565,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+AutoARIMA,59.166666666666664,33.893658085803416,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,55.41666666666667,32.52926186802178,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,54.166666666666664,32.83344751489832,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+Drift,53.33333333333334,29.639454067966152,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,52.91666666666666,34.19057001716027,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,42.08333333333333,30.133730029400986,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,40.416666666666664,28.236498726126015,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+DeepAR,31.25,24.302560020818376,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,22.916666666666664,19.70951503418047,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,17.916666666666668,15.279108700450617,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0
+Naive,16.666666666666668,15.593612422240255,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0
+TFT,14.166666666666666,9.838087249658834,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,8.333333333333332,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-TiRex,86.30952380952381,38.167872268859085,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,85.11904761904762,37.73601239308477,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,78.57142857142858,37.11985318962454,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,65.47619047619048,33.46942523050611,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-AutoETS,62.5,29.185864234223647,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,54.761904761904766,32.77207032704751,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,31.721452512923896,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,50.000000000000014,31.399100116246935,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,50.0,31.818155351289157,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0
-Drift,43.45238095238095,25.58270358587049,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,43.45238095238095,29.079628772649933,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-AutoTheta,42.26190476190476,29.618968091908858,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,16.666666666666668,14.51026077809361,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
-Naive,13.69047619047619,11.510639986489046,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,87.5,38.16787226217255,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,85.83333333333334,37.73601252203713,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,81.66666666666667,37.119576639717835,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,75.0,35.273957411546085,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,68.33333333333333,35.173459448094114,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,67.91666666666667,33.496371356107844,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+AutoETS,67.5,29.18586393990128,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,61.66666666666666,32.772070331944484,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,57.08333333333334,31.81815534740079,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,56.666666666666664,31.72145242450589,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,49.58333333333333,29.079628766325204,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+AutoTheta,48.33333333333334,29.61896808086114,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0
+Drift,47.083333333333336,25.58270375016218,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,43.749999999999986,25.12762288287479,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,34.166666666666664,24.325044506495818,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,27.916666666666668,23.419716355230047,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,25.416666666666664,16.930294384775955,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,20.0,14.510260955147846,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
+Naive,17.91666666666667,11.510640002523509,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0
+TFT,17.5,9.329379481293765,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,9.166666666666664,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-TiRex,75.5952380952381,37.758720420324885,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,72.02380952380952,38.17771635240618,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,67.26190476190477,36.55873563764085,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,66.66666666666667,33.97027771884091,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,63.09523809523808,35.892561173334556,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-AutoETS,58.92857142857143,34.84116701303258,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,58.333333333333336,34.28532719607597,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,35.73217052389407,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,49.404761904761905,30.47814442259772,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0
-Drift,48.214285714285715,28.435825322795704,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,47.023809523809526,28.27751413794253,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-AutoTheta,45.83333333333333,31.81292365948549,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0
-Naive,20.833333333333332,15.872311480991785,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,17.261904761904763,17.737236553561875,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,8.928571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,77.91666666666667,37.758720587285445,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,74.16666666666666,38.177219528557146,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,71.25,36.558735189016225,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,67.08333333333336,33.97875884401389,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,66.66666666666666,35.89256072267927,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+FlowState,65.41666666666667,37.645403955852096,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,64.16666666666666,36.531743334435674,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,62.5,34.84116662551825,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,62.083333333333336,35.20082715344605,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,60.41666666666667,35.02206834104291,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,54.58333333333333,35.732170334358024,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,53.75,30.478143266802604,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,51.66666666666666,28.277512977220987,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+AutoTheta,48.33333333333335,31.812923074763923,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0
+Drift,48.33333333333334,28.435824921980835,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0
+Naive,24.58333333333333,15.872310498117715,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,22.916666666666668,17.737235971841127,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,22.08333333333333,19.60425306556468,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,20.0,15.619782622761335,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0
+TFT,19.583333333333336,6.946074243338563,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,12.5,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-TiRex,83.33333333333334,42.09146585989647,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,76.78571428571426,40.960757226189024,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,70.83333333333334,38.07263005492061,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,66.07142857142857,39.26649292250398,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,62.5,38.29459805551885,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,61.9047619047619,37.99224244127147,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,58.33333333333333,35.53495230927829,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,55.35714285714286,36.76571975679717,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,52.976190476190474,32.793225134905136,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0
-AutoARIMA,46.42857142857143,34.4461529963365,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,36.90476190476191,29.146207716766202,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0
-Drift,33.92857142857143,23.82864899904751,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,19.642857142857142,17.532849713917752,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
-Naive,15.47619047619048,11.37195841028552,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,9.523809523809524,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,85.0,42.09146596586096,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,80.41666666666666,40.960757337476025,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,75.41666666666667,40.9054936267241,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+Toto-1.0,72.91666666666667,38.100769058535434,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,71.25,39.266493040907115,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,69.58333333333333,40.20371520247606,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,68.33333333333333,37.992090519620156,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,64.16666666666666,35.534952430792764,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,62.916666666666664,36.76571988294681,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,58.75,32.793225265991246,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0
+AutoARIMA,53.333333333333336,34.44615311952015,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,43.75,29.146207850323268,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0
+Drift,37.49999999999999,23.828649343246187,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,34.166666666666664,21.869167576579297,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,32.91666666666667,26.0945614678313,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,32.49999999999999,25.89068156049532,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,27.499999999999996,19.911167839333967,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,24.583333333333325,17.532849869365606,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0
+TFT,20.833333333333336,9.939963215759995,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0
+Naive,20.833333333333332,11.371958531244664,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,13.333333333333334,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.025,-0.023,0.072
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.027,-0.0,0.06
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.034,-0.014,0.087
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.001,0.104
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,0.016,0.067
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.417,1.0,0.09,0.025,0.15
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.053,0.126
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.039,0.005,0.073
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.417,1.0,0.09,0.024,0.151
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.069,0.021,0.135
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.053,0.126
 Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.051,0.221
 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.03,0.143
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.054,0.213
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.065,0.019,0.104
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.068,0.168
 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.143,0.081,0.197
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.302
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.195,0.346
 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.289,0.476
 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.026,-0.078,0.023
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.002,-0.051,0.049
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.009,-0.026,0.043
+TiRex,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.026,-0.05,0.091
 TiRex,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.015,-0.013,0.045
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.066,-0.018,0.15
-TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.064,-0.009,0.126
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.014,-0.041,0.062
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.066,-0.019,0.149
 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.033,0.133
+TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.064,-0.009,0.126
 TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.002,0.214
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.06,0.02,0.109
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.114,0.033,0.194
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.041,-0.006,0.085
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.149
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.12,0.05,0.194
-TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.214,0.149,0.271
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.163,0.335
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.261,0.466
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.028,-0.064,0.0
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.002,-0.051,0.049
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.007,-0.059,0.064
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.024,-0.019,0.072
+LightGBM,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.013,-0.03,0.049
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.012,-0.002,0.026
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.009,0.132
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.043,-0.012,0.11
+LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.062,0.019,0.108
+LightGBM,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.101,0.037,0.181
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.058,-0.011,0.121
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.039,-0.028,0.085
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.053,0.136
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.118,0.051,0.177
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.267,0.458
 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.035,-0.095,0.014
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.009,-0.045,0.026
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.007,-0.068,0.055
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.017,-0.064,0.092
 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.027,0.041
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.005,-0.055,0.067
 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.037,0.145
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.056,-0.023,0.124
 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.037,-0.046,0.122
+Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.056,-0.023,0.124
 Chronos-2,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.095,-0.024,0.22
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,0.004,0.099
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,0.025,0.194
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.032,-0.011,0.071
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.044,0.143
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.045,0.186
-Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.156,0.255
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.159,0.328
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.264,0.451
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.117,0.001
+FlowState,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.026,-0.1,0.048
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.024,-0.077,0.019
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.017,-0.102,0.06
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.011,-0.083,0.049
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.012,-0.06,0.028
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.292,0.833,0.041,-0.047,0.127
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.02,-0.017,0.055
+FlowState,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.04,-0.015,0.097
+FlowState,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.079,-0.007,0.177
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.035,-0.024,0.103
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.016,-0.058,0.073
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.073,0.02,0.125
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.097,0.02,0.172
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.265,0.429
 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.042,-0.072,-0.016
 AutoETS,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.015,-0.047,0.013
+AutoETS,LightGBM,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.013,-0.052,0.029
 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.043,0.026
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.011,-0.051,0.077
 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.04,0.039
 AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.025,0.122
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.003,0.1
 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.036,0.112
+AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.003,0.1
 AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.089,-0.005,0.196
 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.046,-0.003,0.098
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.1,0.02,0.183
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.015,0.065
 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.041,0.127
 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.107,0.05,0.164
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.132,0.262
-AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.162,0.316
 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.256,0.456
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.583,-0.099,-0.177,-0.025
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.071,-0.176,0.018
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.062,-0.17,0.035
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.139,0.024
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.078,-0.005
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.014,-0.066,0.039
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.012,-0.026,0.002
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.005,-0.071,0.052
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.012,-0.029,0.057
+CatBoost,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.041,0.039
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.053,-0.022,0.121
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.032,-0.023,0.093
+CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.051,0.005,0.102
+CatBoost,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.09,0.019,0.173
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.047,-0.019,0.108
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.027,-0.036,0.075
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.084,0.046,0.12
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.108,0.045,0.165
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.26,0.448
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.583,-0.099,-0.177,-0.024
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.071,-0.175,0.019
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.068,-0.152,0.009
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.061,-0.169,0.035
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.708,-0.043,-0.146,0.045
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.139,0.025
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.056,-0.138,0.021
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.002,-0.089,0.077
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.108,0.048
-Toto-1.0,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.065,0.133
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,-0.007,-0.103,0.063
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.107,0.186
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.032,-0.034,0.096
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.058,0.018,0.106
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.158,0.042,0.265
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.116,0.285
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.324,0.199,0.433
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.022,-0.108,0.05
+Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.002,-0.089,0.078
+Toto-1.0,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.065,0.134
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.006,-0.103,0.064
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.027,-0.153,0.074
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.033,-0.034,0.097
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.058,0.018,0.107
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.324,0.198,0.433
+AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.074,-0.156,-0.022
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.154,0.032
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.045,-0.124,0.012
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.038,-0.139,0.044
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.02,-0.058,0.017
+AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.126,0.035
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.033,-0.102,0.023
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.052,0.097
+AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.063,0.093
+AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.06,-0.052,0.172
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.016,-0.047,0.078
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,-0.005,-0.093,0.062
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.054,-0.009,0.113
+AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.079,-0.006,0.156
+AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.256,0.422
 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.144,-0.056
 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.144,0.009
+AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.067,-0.122,-0.019
 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.142,0.022
+AutoTheta,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.041,-0.108,0.015
 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.111,0.003
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.002,-0.083,0.082
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.113,-0.005
+AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.002,-0.084,0.082
 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.102,0.059
+AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.041,-0.014,0.136
 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.005,-0.086,0.079
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.053,-0.043,0.132
+AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.025,-0.095,0.033
 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.034,-0.034,0.1
 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.011,0.123
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.076,0.236
-AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.136,0.266
 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.231,0.412
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.075,-0.156,-0.022
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.154,0.032
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.038,-0.139,0.044
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.126,0.035
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.051,0.097
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.063,0.093
-AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.06,-0.052,0.172
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.016,-0.047,0.078
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.072,-0.036,0.171
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.054,-0.009,0.113
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.079,-0.006,0.156
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.177,0.068,0.264
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.217,0.128,0.295
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.256,0.422
 Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.284,-0.054
 Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.115,-0.273,0.002
+Drift,LightGBM,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.112,-0.22,-0.038
 Drift,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.105,-0.282,0.024
+Drift,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.086,-0.216,0.007
 Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.098,-0.244,0.005
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.041,-0.153,0.061
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.043,-0.158,0.014
+Drift,CatBoost,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.099,-0.209,-0.02
+Drift,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.041,-0.155,0.061
 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.064,-0.208,0.05
+Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.043,-0.158,0.014
 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.048,-0.227,0.071
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.012,-0.193,0.142
+Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.069,-0.247,0.038
 Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.119,0.086
 Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.02,-0.09,0.108
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.124,-0.064,0.234
-Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.241
 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.296,0.127,0.41
 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.167,-0.031
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.064,-0.122,-0.02
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.062,-0.138,0.01
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.11,-0.004
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.037,-0.115,0.024
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.048,-0.109,0.003
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,0.007,-0.067,0.093
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.005,-0.086,0.079
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.049,-0.121,0.019
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.006,-0.068,0.093
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.016,-0.085,0.045
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.005,-0.086,0.079
 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.045,-0.076,0.185
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.057,-0.034,0.15
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.081,0.034
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.039,-0.007,0.091
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.064,-0.008,0.143
-TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.095,0.228
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.109,0.293
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.226,0.415
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.271,-0.057
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.128,-0.241,-0.034
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.118,-0.241,-0.026
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.111,-0.224,-0.02
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.228,0.097
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.056,-0.153,0.042
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.077,-0.207,0.035
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.012,-0.165,0.162
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.06,-0.177,0.033
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.07,-0.116,-0.02
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.043,-0.093,0.006
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.04,-0.093,0.028
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.033,-0.076,0.011
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.016,-0.079,0.055
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.069,0.015
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.028,-0.081,0.035
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.026,-0.08,0.132
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,0.004,-0.067,0.085
+TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.025,-0.035,0.086
+TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.065,-0.04,0.198
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.036,0.075
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.019,-0.156,0.089
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.146,0.14
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.113,0.02,0.191
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.156,0.023,0.274
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.181,0.389
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.058,-0.009,0.122
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.083,-0.005,0.174
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.249,0.435
 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.136,-0.202,-0.073
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.175,-0.053
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.104,-0.157,-0.056
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.167,-0.046
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.078,-0.143,-0.02
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.09,-0.145,-0.043
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.033,-0.107,0.033
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.112,0.033
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.091,-0.136,-0.049
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.034,-0.107,0.033
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.057,-0.128,0.009
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.112,0.033
 Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.094,0.106
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.04,-0.1,0.007
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.019,-0.097,0.135
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.062,-0.138,0.008
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.026,-0.016,0.079
-Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.036,0.202
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.107,0.235
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.301,0.198,0.389
 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.245,-0.088
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.137,-0.24,-0.053
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.216,-0.054
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.229,-0.048
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.108,-0.208,-0.021
 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.196,-0.053
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.061,-0.118,-0.018
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.141,0.011
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.121,-0.198,-0.047
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.062,-0.12,-0.019
 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.086,-0.185,0.006
+Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.141,0.011
 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.02,-0.121,0.083
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.068,-0.166,0.008
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.163,0.127
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.09,-0.211,0.005
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.086,0.015
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,-0.0,0.194
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.15,0.086,0.21
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.282,0.162,0.388
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.305,-0.434,-0.185
-Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.272,-0.372,-0.176
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.342,-0.184
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.253,-0.356,-0.153
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.187,-0.361,-0.044
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.19,-0.309,-0.083
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.215,-0.358,-0.073
-Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.141,-0.305,0.06
-Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.296,-0.104
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.127,-0.237,-0.021
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.254,-0.037
-Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.119,-0.24,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.049,-0.051,0.164
-Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.082,0.299
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.529,-0.242
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.504,-0.194
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.488,-0.189
-Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.317,-0.462,-0.193
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.398,-0.131
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.362,-0.157
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.277,-0.419,-0.147
-Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.318,-0.098
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.257,-0.415,-0.122
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.185,-0.377,-0.024
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.208,-0.307,-0.119
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.265,-0.094
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.051,-0.197,0.049
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.156,0.021,0.261
 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.907,-0.407
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.584,-0.872,-0.353
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.581,-0.845,-0.364
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.821,-0.358
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.752,-0.36
 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.837,-0.345
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.479,-0.763,-0.248
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.7,-0.301
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.812,-0.352
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.48,-0.763,-0.247
 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.73,-0.344
+Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.7,-0.301
 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.421,-0.694,-0.146
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.489,-0.709,-0.292
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.637,-0.222
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.52,-0.769,-0.332
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.431,-0.638,-0.246
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.393,-0.634,-0.193
-Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.245,-0.427,-0.09
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.185,-0.353,-0.022
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv

@@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.007,-0.028,0.036
 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.034,0.06
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.071,-0.005,0.143
+TiRex,FlowState,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.045,-0.023,0.098
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.07,-0.008,0.143
 TiRex,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.127,0.025,0.268
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.046,0.002,0.086
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.08,0.038,0.122
 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.094,0.019,0.181
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.05,0.141
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.099,0.031,0.166
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.063,0.197
 TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.169,0.055,0.293
 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.053,0.185
-TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.209,0.334
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.213,0.382
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.174,0.088,0.262
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.183,0.143,0.22
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.467
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.007,-0.037,0.027
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.01,-0.042,0.051
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.02,0.141
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.038,-0.034,0.106
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.021,0.141
 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.121,0.02,0.261
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,0.005,0.072
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.039,0.111
 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.088,0.009,0.174
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.043,0.142
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.092,0.031,0.161
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.059,0.192
 Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.036,0.303
 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.046,0.178
-Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.215,0.324
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.202,0.388
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.168,0.087,0.249
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.177,0.128,0.232
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.286,0.457
 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.064,0.033
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.01,-0.053,0.04
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.055,-0.011,0.117
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.029,-0.016,0.073
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.054,-0.012,0.118
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.112,0.011,0.257
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.03,-0.01,0.063
 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.065,0.013,0.121
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.079,0.03,0.146
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.078,0.024,0.131
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.023,0.143
 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.113,0.048,0.171
 Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.061,0.279
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.07,0.148
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.191,0.329
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.206,0.375
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.078,0.259
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.139,0.21
 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.288,0.452
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.076,-0.167,0.005
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.164,0.019
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.133,0.011
+FlowState,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.047,-0.109,0.023
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.04,-0.118,0.033
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.029,-0.079,0.016
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.292,0.833,0.027,-0.057,0.11
+FlowState,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.086,-0.042,0.243
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.002,-0.065,0.055
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.037,-0.024,0.11
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,0.005,0.102
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.051,-0.002,0.101
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.087,0.013,0.162
+FlowState,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.13,0.042,0.241
+FlowState,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.08,0.03,0.133
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.063,0.219
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.145,0.102,0.18
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.274,0.424
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.076,-0.167,0.008
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.068,-0.164,0.021
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.134,0.012
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.708,-0.027,-0.124,0.054
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.06,-0.086,0.229
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.01,-0.075,0.075
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.06,0.101
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.024,-0.031,0.081
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.103,0.146
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.062,0.022,0.109
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.061,-0.086,0.229
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.134,0.065
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.011,-0.075,0.076
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.059,0.101
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.025,-0.031,0.083
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.062,0.021,0.111
 Toto-1.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.106,-0.014,0.216
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.055,-0.028,0.135
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.222,0.115,0.321
-Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.157,0.335
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.216,0.435
+Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.055,-0.029,0.136
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.75,0.5,0.919,0.112,0.002,0.233
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.121,0.055,0.184
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.215,0.436
 AutoETS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.367,-0.025
 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.137,-0.354,-0.02
 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.126,-0.345,-0.012
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.064,-0.297,0.08
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.094,-0.322,0.04
+AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.065,-0.298,0.08
 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.092,-0.306,0.025
 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.053,-0.259,0.072
 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.037,-0.271,0.112
 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.039,-0.251,0.086
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.032,-0.263,0.102
 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.001,-0.211,0.131
 AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.048,-0.2,0.237
 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.006,-0.228,0.119
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.002,0.286
-AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.2,0.001,0.337
+AutoETS,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.054,-0.175,0.203
+AutoETS,LightGBM,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.064,-0.129,0.175
 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.084,0.43
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.048,-0.094,-0.002
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.077,-0.005
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.031,-0.067,0.009
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.002,-0.058,0.061
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.025,-0.069,0.118
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.085,-0.026,0.234
+TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.036,-0.012,0.086
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.415,0.917,0.051,-0.02,0.134
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.049,-0.015,0.114
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.086,0.005,0.17
+TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.129,0.014,0.28
+TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.079,0.026,0.129
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.05,0.228
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.143,0.098,0.204
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.266,0.435
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.087,-0.139,-0.039
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.124,-0.041
 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.137,-0.014
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.01,-0.081,0.07
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.039,-0.124,0.024
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.011,-0.082,0.07
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.051,-0.077,0.205
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.037,-0.094,0.012
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.015,-0.066,0.089
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.014,-0.034,0.072
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.059,0.098
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.014,0.127
 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.097,-0.046,0.255
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.045,-0.043,0.116
-TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.15,0.272
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.136,0.34
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.102,0.009,0.194
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.112,0.044,0.176
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.224,0.407
 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.104,-0.221,-0.019
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.21,-0.009
 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.086,-0.171,-0.031
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.026,-0.112,0.056
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.113,-0.005
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.113,0.056
 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.036,-0.126,0.213
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.585,-0.053,-0.154,0.02
 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.016,-0.097,0.062
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.08,0.069
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.005,-0.101,0.09
 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.037,-0.064,0.125
 AutoARIMA,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.049,0.224
 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.03,-0.058,0.107
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.201,0.09,0.294
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.322
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.088,-0.009,0.203
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.098,0.012,0.161
 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.242,0.396
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.164,-0.052
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.165,-0.044
 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.084,-0.151,-0.024
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.025,-0.088,0.03
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.053,-0.113,0.002
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.025,-0.09,0.03
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.037,-0.094,0.201
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.052,-0.128,0.014
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.014,-0.077,0.032
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.074,0.074
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.093,0.108
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.001,0.09
 Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.084,-0.028,0.199
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.031,-0.044,0.102
-Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.109,0.273
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.158,0.296
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.089,0.02,0.168
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.099,0.057,0.138
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.318,0.219,0.402
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.109,-0.2,-0.031
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.102,-0.192,-0.032
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.091,-0.167,-0.023
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.171,0.093
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.031,-0.114,0.208
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.02,-0.109,0.056
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.005,-0.099,0.092
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.121,0.085
-TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.033,-0.089,0.147
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.078,-0.057,0.251
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.025,-0.038,0.091
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.198,0.122,0.263
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.225,0.109,0.337
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.229,0.401
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.245,-0.067
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.139,-0.237,-0.063
 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.206,-0.05
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.066,-0.123,-0.022
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.096,-0.194,-0.013
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.066,-0.124,-0.022
 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.002,-0.151,0.175
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.094,-0.205,-0.005
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.145,0.014
 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.039,-0.142,0.06
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.04,-0.099,0.001
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.034,-0.173,0.082
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.047,-0.076,0.17
 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.087,0.069
-Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,0.072,0.253
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.199,0.12,0.272
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.053,-0.038,0.15
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.063,-0.006,0.126
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.291,0.176,0.391
 Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.204,-0.414,-0.058
 Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.435,-0.037
 Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.386,-0.065
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.119,-0.276,0.014
+Drift,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.15,-0.317,-0.044
+Drift,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.119,-0.275,0.014
 Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.051,-0.31,0.166
+Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.148,-0.389,-0.015
 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.107,-0.342,0.044
 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.09,-0.289,0.047
 Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.091,-0.248,0.027
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.085,-0.334,0.054
 Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.049,-0.204,0.07
 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,0.917,-0.057,-0.232,0.028
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,-0.097,0.26
-Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.082,0.234
+Drift,DeepAR,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.006,-0.184,0.147
+Drift,LightGBM,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.017,-0.107,0.097
 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.256,0.054,0.378
 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.227,-0.056
 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.13,-0.217,-0.048
 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.119,-0.173,-0.075
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.058,-0.156,0.027
+AutoTheta,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.087,-0.153,-0.031
+AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.058,-0.158,0.029
 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.006,-0.136,0.186
+AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.086,-0.148,-0.026
 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.047,-0.131,0.041
 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.031,-0.12,0.055
 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.032,-0.114,0.042
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.026,-0.101,0.037
 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.075,0.08
 AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.083,0.5,0.054,-0.029,0.188
 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.177,0.099,0.254
-AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.205,0.128,0.291
+AutoTheta,DeepAR,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.06,-0.039,0.16
+AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.07,0.01,0.126
 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.216,0.375
-Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.501,-0.264
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.48,-0.274
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.36,-0.49,-0.236
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.285,-0.472,-0.13
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.207,-0.401,-0.002
-Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.272,-0.374,-0.176
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.252,-0.417,-0.099
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.376,-0.123
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.246,-0.357,-0.139
-Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.339,-0.077
-Sundial-Base,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.351,0.088
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.215,-0.341,-0.11
-Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.034,-0.089,0.177
-Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.145,0.018,0.25
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.619,-0.27
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.633,-0.253
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.6,-0.259
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.503,-0.186
-Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.25,-0.508,-0.001
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.316,-0.515,-0.157
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.296,-0.475,-0.146
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.42,-0.188
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.29,-0.508,-0.122
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.248,-0.374,-0.137
-Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.089
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.41,-0.146
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.035,-0.215,0.082
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.115,-0.055,0.229
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.211,-0.354,-0.096
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.202,-0.331,-0.095
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.191,-0.35,-0.084
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.157,-0.28,-0.067
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.081,0.5,-0.126,-0.304,-0.002
+DeepAR,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.057,-0.255,0.149
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.155,-0.295,-0.052
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.114,-0.24,-0.009
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.097,-0.255,0.009
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.098,-0.202,-0.02
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.056,-0.177,0.037
+DeepAR,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.006,-0.172,0.155
+DeepAR,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.064,-0.191,0.037
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.011,-0.102,0.102
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.251,0.17,0.336
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.224,-0.283,-0.166
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.215,-0.303,-0.147
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.203,-0.265,-0.161
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.169,-0.219,-0.113
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.138,-0.226,-0.058
+LightGBM,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.212,0.115
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.167,-0.256,-0.109
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.126,-0.214,-0.046
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.108,-0.192,-0.012
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.11,-0.161,-0.06
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.067,-0.144,0.006
+LightGBM,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.017,-0.107,0.096
+LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.075,-0.144,-0.011
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.011,-0.113,0.092
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.243,0.126,0.34
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.877,-0.392
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.842,-0.401
 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.824,-0.404
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.503,-0.771,-0.275
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.545,-0.736,-0.377
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.504,-0.774,-0.274
 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.755,-0.091
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.769,-0.363
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.487,-0.686,-0.288
 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.465,-0.656,-0.319
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.467,-0.673,-0.28
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.668,-0.296
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.41,-0.643,-0.214
 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.344,-0.607,-0.057
 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.599,-0.275
-Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.17,-0.333,-0.019
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.13,-0.297,0.052
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.336,-0.505,-0.204
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.321,-0.515,-0.144
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv

@@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.118,0.073
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.019,-0.026,0.055
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.013,0.132
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.011,0.131
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.066
+TiRex,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.002,-0.132,0.081
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.019,-0.098,0.11
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.039,-0.111,0.151
 TiRex,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.022,0.113
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.053,-0.079,0.157
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.042,-0.105,0.143
 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.032,-0.075,0.116
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.043,0.176
-TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.13,-0.069,0.279
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.132,0.04,0.235
+TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.13,-0.069,0.279
 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.087,-0.092,0.23
-TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.26,0.135,0.394
-TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.243,0.154,0.322
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.378,0.252,0.503
 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.079,0.105
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.026,-0.052,0.124
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.026,0.153
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.025,0.153
 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.036,-0.044,0.138
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.009,-0.049,0.064
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.026,-0.033,0.082
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.046,-0.019,0.117
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.051,0.006,0.104
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.059,-0.02,0.135
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.049,-0.01,0.104
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.038,-0.015,0.077
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.111,0.016,0.202
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.017,0.263
 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.138,0.035,0.235
+Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.017,0.263
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.006,0.186
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.136,0.387
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.339
 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.284,0.478
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.019,-0.059,0.025
 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.142,0.05
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.05,0.132
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.047,0.129
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.01,-0.025,0.05
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.017,-0.169,0.081
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.0,-0.134,0.102
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.021,-0.142,0.136
 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.04,0.085
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.035,-0.112,0.148
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.024,-0.139,0.134
 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.013,-0.106,0.11
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.087,0.014,0.175
-Chronos-2,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.114,-0.101,0.291
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.115,0.018,0.219
+Chronos-2,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.114,-0.101,0.291
 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.07,-0.127,0.214
-Chronos-2,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.246,0.102,0.391
-Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.153,0.304
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.366,0.237,0.489
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.061,-0.152,0.013
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.025
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.041,-0.152,0.047
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.061,-0.151,0.011
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.024
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.041,-0.149,0.045
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.14,0.051
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.013,-0.1,0.063
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.164,0.134
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.14,0.072
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.092
-Toto-1.0,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.077,-0.097,0.197
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.079,0.026,0.142
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.032,-0.139,0.166
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.104,0.331
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.07,0.294
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.139,0.05
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.059,-0.205,0.059
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.192,0.084
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.019,-0.168,0.102
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.013,-0.1,0.062
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.016,-0.165,0.098
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.138,0.071
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.093
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.079,0.026,0.145
+Toto-1.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.077,-0.098,0.198
+Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.032,-0.141,0.168
 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.463
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.03,-0.071,0.01
 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.037,-0.161,0.042
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.011,-0.052,0.025
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.054,0.123
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.053,0.122
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.028,-0.174,0.06
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.01,-0.144,0.086
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.011,-0.151,0.126
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.016,-0.058,0.087
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.024,-0.121,0.142
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.013,-0.148,0.118
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.002,-0.108,0.082
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.078,0.002,0.167
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.104,-0.116,0.272
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.106,0.001,0.216
+TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.104,-0.116,0.272
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.138,0.209
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.238,0.088,0.384
-TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.142,0.296
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.235,0.479
+FlowState,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.002,-0.088,0.117
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.009,-0.068,0.047
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.017,-0.088,0.144
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.056,-0.062,0.17
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.064,0.149
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.018,-0.056,0.079
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.038,-0.03,0.127
+FlowState,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.043,-0.045,0.131
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.04,-0.011,0.111
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.03,-0.016,0.077
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.103,-0.011,0.214
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.131,-0.007,0.259
+FlowState,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.129,0.015,0.255
+FlowState,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.086,-0.015,0.205
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.376,0.258,0.488
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.124,0.089
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.027,-0.089,0.032
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.0,-0.113,0.119
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.039,-0.092,0.161
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.01,-0.095,0.126
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.018,-0.086,0.053
+TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.021,-0.065,0.101
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.063,0.099
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.023,-0.053,0.095
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.917,0.012,-0.076,0.092
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.087,-0.047,0.2
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.115,-0.032,0.239
+TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.113,-0.009,0.25
+TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.069,-0.015,0.161
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.273,0.457
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.041,-0.178,0.1
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.048,-0.133,0.018
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.021,-0.157,0.125
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.019,-0.114,0.144
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.011,-0.145,0.131
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.039,-0.146,0.029
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.113,0.061
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,AutoETS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.006,-0.085,0.101
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.003,-0.02,0.023
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.008,-0.127,0.076
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.068,-0.042,0.181
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.097,-0.019,0.21
+CatBoost,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.095,0.001,0.192
+CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.05,-0.023,0.119
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.249,0.443
 AutoETS,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.127,0.022
 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.115,-0.006
 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.093,0.039
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.013,-0.067,0.091
+AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.013,-0.066,0.091
 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.016,-0.095,0.055
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.045,-0.151,0.043
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.11,0.059
+AutoETS,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.006,-0.113,0.079
 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.008,-0.094,0.112
+AutoETS,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.003,-0.108,0.075
 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.014,-0.108,0.063
 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.063,-0.003,0.135
-AutoETS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.09,-0.071,0.231
 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.092,0.012,0.167
+AutoETS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.09,-0.071,0.231
 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.044,-0.086,0.148
-AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.099,0.346
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.127,0.279
 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.248,0.455
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.056,-0.187,0.073
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.063,-0.156,0.019
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.174,0.101
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.155,0.141
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.025,-0.165,0.108
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.009,-0.126,0.086
-TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.023,-0.135,0.081
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.055,-0.107,0.185
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.234
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.084,-0.089,0.226
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.036,-0.065,0.138
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.073,0.351
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.308
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.242,0.437
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.044,-0.167,0.095
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.051,-0.116,0.01
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.024,-0.154,0.122
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.016,-0.108,0.142
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.014,-0.134,0.129
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.042,-0.124,0.011
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.024,-0.105,0.05
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.003,-0.024,0.02
+LightGBM,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.003,-0.081,0.098
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.011,-0.107,0.063
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.065,-0.039,0.177
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.094,-0.024,0.211
+LightGBM,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.092,0.0,0.192
+LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.047,-0.024,0.121
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.35,0.246,0.442
 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.033,-0.131,0.07
 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.04,-0.084,0.014
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.013,-0.124,0.096
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.027,-0.077,0.123
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.027,-0.076,0.121
 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.003,-0.089,0.098
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.031,-0.083,0.016
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.083,0.667,-0.013,-0.102,0.071
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.008,-0.083,0.113
 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.014,-0.067,0.097
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.022,-0.089,0.119
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.011,-0.067,0.096
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.076,-0.037,0.184
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.102,-0.037,0.249
 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.104,-0.025,0.23
+AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.102,-0.037,0.249
 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.057,-0.064,0.19
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.236,0.084,0.383
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.084,0.33
 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.24,0.471
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.213,-0.045
 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.125,-0.253,-0.016
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.096,-0.213,-0.014
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.101,-0.006
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.102,-0.006
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.084,-0.2,-0.002
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.115,-0.272,0.01
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.095,-0.249,0.045
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.073,-0.221,0.041
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.067,-0.156,0.003
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.058,-0.227,0.097
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.07,-0.216,0.037
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.082,-0.226,0.035
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.15,0.149
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.031,-0.022,0.094
+Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.15,0.149
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.02,-0.201,0.115
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.174,0.068,0.284
-Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.026,0.239
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.305,0.17,0.432
-Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.15,-0.388,0.065
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.356,-0.017
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.128,-0.41,0.092
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.084,-0.246,0.088
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.116,-0.374,0.104
-Drift,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.098,-0.3,0.066
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.089,-0.305,0.063
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.114,-0.332,0.036
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.175,0.13
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.002,-0.146,0.163
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.05,-0.184,0.016
-Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.045,0.251
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.13,-0.09,0.296
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.11,0.391
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.152,-0.307,-0.042
 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.16,-0.308,-0.037
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.131,-0.281,-0.018
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.086,-0.166,-0.027
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.086,-0.169,-0.026
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.119,-0.275,-0.001
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.15,-0.35,0.007
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.13,-0.314,0.031
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.107,-0.266,0.019
 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.101,-0.201,-0.012
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.091,-0.291,0.082
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.104,-0.268,0.024
 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.116,-0.299,0.024
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.032,-0.104,0.022
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.002,-0.195,0.127
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.002,-0.195,0.127
 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.052,-0.228,0.084
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.147,0.051,0.248
-Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.128,-0.003,0.227
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.283,0.152,0.405
+Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.15,-0.388,0.065
+Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.356,-0.017
+Drift,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.128,-0.41,0.092
+Drift,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.084,-0.247,0.089
+Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.116,-0.374,0.104
+Drift,FlowState,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.148,-0.342,-0.015
+Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.128,-0.334,0.009
+Drift,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.104,-0.237,-0.001
+Drift,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.098,-0.3,0.066
+Drift,LightGBM,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.101,-0.238,-0.0
+Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.114,-0.332,0.036
+Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.175,0.13
+Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.002,-0.146,0.163
+Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.05,-0.184,0.016
+Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.11,0.391
 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.096,-0.299,0.084
 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.229,-0.006
 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.075,-0.273,0.113
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.033,-0.199,0.122
+AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.033,-0.201,0.124
 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.263,0.122
+AutoTheta,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.094,-0.258,0.014
+AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.074,-0.192,0.015
+AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.052,-0.135,0.022
 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.046,-0.174,0.079
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.038,-0.16,0.061
+AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.049,-0.138,0.023
 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.061,-0.235,0.061
 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.019,-0.13,0.167
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.047,-0.016,0.156
 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.049,-0.092,0.186
+AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.047,-0.016,0.156
 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.189,0.084,0.29
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.171,0.057,0.303
 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.237,0.391
-Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.352,-0.649,-0.156
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.631,-0.157
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.326,-0.642,-0.113
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.274,-0.494,-0.116
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.312,-0.623,-0.097
-Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.291,-0.53,-0.11
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.54,-0.079
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.5,-0.309,-0.62,-0.092
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.21,-0.396,-0.073
-Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.335,-0.047
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.173,-0.33,-0.053
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.234,-0.408,-0.092
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.218,0.11
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.159,0.001,0.281
-Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.476,-0.182
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.513,-0.171
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.436,-0.181
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.246,-0.416,-0.075
-Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.421,-0.165
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.262,-0.386,-0.145
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.445,-0.097
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.493,-0.091
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.315,-0.026
-Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.149,-0.421,0.082
-Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.147,-0.294,0.002
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.206,-0.435,-0.061
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.123,0.179
-Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.177,0.057,0.284
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.607,-1.014,-0.337
 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.915,-0.396
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.576,-0.957,-0.311
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.514,-0.863,-0.255
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.515,-0.863,-0.255
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.92,-0.308
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.604,-0.954,-0.348
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.576,-0.842,-0.375
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.796,-0.331
 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.834,-0.33
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.522,-0.775,-0.319
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.539,-0.791,-0.326
 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.891,-0.315
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.438,-0.76,-0.205
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.397,-0.643,-0.124
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.394,-0.681,-0.179
+Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.397,-0.643,-0.124
 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.467,-0.643,-0.311
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.189,-0.391,-0.001
-Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.216,-0.396,-0.06
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv

@@ -1,9 +1,10 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.019,-0.029,0.058
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.065,0.009,0.127
+TiRex,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.02,-0.099,0.09
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,0.009,0.124
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.047,0.005,0.084
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.062,-0.038,0.149
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.032,-0.059,0.112
 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.066,-0.055,0.161
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.102,0.047,0.167
 TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.017,0.145
@@ -11,14 +12,15 @@ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.138,0.051,0.236
 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.117,-0.008,0.227
 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.183,0.017,0.322
 TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.039,0.386
-TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.205,0.38
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.221,0.471
+TiRex,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.166,0.353
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.216,0.106,0.306
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.287,0.546
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.02,-0.062,0.028
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.047,-0.03,0.132
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.142,0.096
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.046,-0.028,0.132
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.028,-0.008,0.061
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.043,-0.066,0.134
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.013,-0.089,0.095
 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.048,-0.082,0.141
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.084,0.014,0.167
 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.004,0.112
@@ -26,29 +28,47 @@ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.122,0.031,0.22
 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.099,-0.035,0.22
 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.167,-0.006,0.299
 Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.01,0.391
-Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.209,0.358
-Chronos-2,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.471
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.151,0.333
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.081,0.289
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.41,0.281,0.527
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.145,-0.009
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.049,-0.152,0.029
+FlowState,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.099,0.09
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.106,0.124
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.045,-0.064,0.156
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.07,0.156
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.012,-0.07,0.076
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.047,-0.025,0.119
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.083,-0.022,0.187
+FlowState,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.065,-0.019,0.146
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.121,-0.009,0.243
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.099,0.019,0.191
+FlowState,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.166,0.06,0.274
+FlowState,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.224,0.102,0.342
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.244,0.145,0.334
+FlowState,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.147,0.268
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.409,0.289,0.52
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.142,-0.009
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.048,-0.153,0.028
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.047,-0.184,0.06
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.115,0.049
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.004,-0.135,0.114
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.133,0.109
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.039,0.004,0.074
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.071,0.095
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.079,0.025,0.148
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.055,-0.086,0.182
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.046,0.264
-Toto-1.0,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.187,-0.005,0.316
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.249,0.132,0.337
-Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.415
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.381,0.238,0.505
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.019,-0.113,0.05
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.035,-0.158,0.074
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.002,-0.131,0.109
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.04,0.003,0.076
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.072,0.095
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.079,0.024,0.151
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.056,-0.084,0.182
+Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.047,0.265
+Toto-1.0,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.187,-0.006,0.318
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.101,0.304
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.162,0.041,0.257
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.381,0.237,0.506
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.049,-0.092,-0.005
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.029,-0.064,0.008
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.052,0.103
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.028,-0.185,0.066
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.052,0.102
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.016,-0.106,0.118
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.016,-0.13,0.074
 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.12,0.113
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.015,0.143
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,-0.045,0.104
@@ -56,29 +76,31 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.096,-0.002,0.206
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.074,-0.073,0.186
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.143,-0.049,0.286
 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.203,-0.028,0.375
-TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.182,0.346
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.315,0.161,0.458
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.223,0.112,0.322
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.178,0.046,0.276
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.393,0.257,0.517
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.066,-0.175,0.037
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.045,-0.154,0.062
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.004,-0.129,0.119
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.016,-0.134,0.096
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.033,-0.126,0.056
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.013,-0.105,0.082
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.012,-0.082,0.066
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.034,-0.08,0.137
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.015,-0.08,0.115
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.084,0.091
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.043,-0.082,0.159
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.024,-0.064,0.095
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.207
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.059,-0.057,0.177
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.129,0.023,0.236
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.19,0.03,0.353
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.154,0.347
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.18,0.427
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.282,0.484
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.036,-0.043,0.12
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.072,-0.043,0.173
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.054,-0.021,0.112
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.11,-0.023,0.223
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.088,-0.016,0.201
+TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.156,0.047,0.26
+TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.215,0.057,0.367
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.235,0.112,0.332
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.191,0.112,0.266
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.302,0.502
 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.192,0.052
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.05,-0.164,0.076
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.123,0.117
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.049,-0.135,0.025
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.002,-0.122,0.116
 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.127,0.107
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.1,0.077
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.037,-0.136,0.042
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.038,-0.083,0.155
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.068,0.095
@@ -86,14 +108,15 @@ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.077,-0.064,0.201
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.054,-0.0,0.099
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.037,0.224
 Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.186,0.041,0.338
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.248,0.115,0.362
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.159,0.433
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.206,0.102,0.299
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.161,0.062,0.245
 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.283,0.482
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.113,-0.2,-0.049
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.092,-0.2,-0.014
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.041,-0.079,-0.004
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.091,-0.23,0.021
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.041,-0.083,-0.003
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.061,-0.167,0.014
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.045,-0.189,0.075
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.078,-0.208,0.042
 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.184,0.077
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.019,-0.125,0.057
@@ -101,14 +124,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.041,-0.012,0.105
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.017,-0.147,0.157
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.09,-0.083,0.223
 Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.154,-0.033,0.28
-Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.093,0.302
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.273,0.167,0.374
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.175,0.087,0.257
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.128,0.018,0.212
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.355,0.212,0.48
 AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.169,-0.018
 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.126,-0.004
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.105,0.066
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.07,-0.17,0.018
+AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.022,-0.104,0.067
 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.116,0.043
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.025,-0.104,0.06
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.057,-0.126,0.021
 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.105,0.064
 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.06,0.111
 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
@@ -116,14 +140,15 @@ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.059,-0.034,0.15
 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.035,-0.082,0.151
 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.108,-0.026,0.227
 AutoETS,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,-0.016,0.334
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322
-AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.287,0.148,0.417
+AutoETS,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.191,0.101,0.272
+AutoETS,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.144,0.059,0.224
 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.368,0.243,0.486
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.161,-0.309,-0.053
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.138,-0.282,-0.032
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.085,-0.173,-0.026
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.137,-0.321,0.009
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.086,-0.178,-0.024
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.107,-0.259,0.002
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.089,-0.262,0.063
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.124,-0.287,0.023
 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.084,-0.251,0.061
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.043,-0.118,0.012
 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.063,-0.177,0.033
@@ -131,14 +156,15 @@ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.025,-0.226,0.141
 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.119,0.187
 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.118,-0.083,0.257
-Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.185,0.061,0.279
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.242,0.127,0.337
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.14,0.039,0.227
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.091,-0.029,0.185
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.328,0.183,0.456
 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.132,-0.294,0.008
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.282,0.034
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.222,0.079
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.109,-0.235,-0.02
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.222,0.077
 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.079,-0.228,0.068
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.062,-0.215,0.054
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.096,-0.252,0.016
 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.057,-0.109,0.0
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.017,-0.187,0.128
 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.178,0.076
@@ -146,14 +172,15 @@ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.025,-0.164,0.185
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.075,-0.043,0.214
 AutoARIMA,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.139,-0.024,0.304
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.205,0.026,0.344
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.26,0.092,0.423
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.161,0.025,0.281
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.113,-0.028,0.232
 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.225,0.467
 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.224,-0.476,-0.017
 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.426,0.006
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.144,-0.358,0.044
+AutoTheta,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.199,-0.378,-0.063
+AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.36,0.045
 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.167,-0.401,0.046
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.148,-0.309,-0.024
+AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.185,-0.351,-0.05
 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.289,-0.038
 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.099,-0.286,0.076
 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.293,0.025
@@ -161,14 +188,15 @@ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.054,-0.229,0.106
 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.081,-0.273,0.041
 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.07,-0.028,0.226
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.141,0.015,0.293
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.318
+AutoTheta,DeepAR,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.093,-0.048,0.214
+AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.041,-0.076,0.139
 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.222,0.357
 Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.315,-0.628,-0.04
 Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.29,-0.643,-0.01
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.23,-0.461,0.005
+Drift,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.289,-0.52,-0.114
+Drift,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.231,-0.465,0.006
 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.254,-0.6,0.027
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.234,-0.546,-0.031
+Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.274,-0.581,-0.061
 Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.228,-0.511,-0.043
 Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.182,-0.389,0.032
 Drift,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.5,0.015
@@ -176,44 +204,47 @@ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.133,-0.347,0.076
 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.162,-0.437,0.023
 Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.075,-0.292,0.027
 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.076,-0.217,0.284
-Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.141,0.034,0.242
+Drift,DeepAR,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.025,-0.175,0.187
+Drift,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.031,-0.213,0.102
 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.238,0.002,0.366
-Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.424,-0.613,-0.258
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.557,-0.264
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.332,-0.509,-0.153
-Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.528,-0.222
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.532,-0.181
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.33,-0.567,-0.13
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.279,-0.433,-0.103
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.474,-0.159
-Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.227,-0.387,-0.066
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.258,-0.524,-0.027
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.164,-0.415,-0.015
-Sundial-Base,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.083,-0.397,0.178
-Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.07,-0.096,0.23
-Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.175,0.01,0.298
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.889,-0.283
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.501,-0.89,-0.236
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.431,-0.708,-0.233
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.459,-0.846,-0.192
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.746,-0.219
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.765,-0.19
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.375,-0.598,-0.2
-Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.402,-0.715,-0.174
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.319,-0.508,-0.145
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.352,-0.732,-0.102
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.251,-0.466,-0.096
-Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.164,-0.32,-0.035
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.075,-0.298,0.087
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.114,-0.095,0.248
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.349,-0.545,-0.2
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.498,-0.178
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.501,-0.169
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.262,-0.437,-0.113
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.286,-0.474,-0.126
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.307,-0.498,-0.126
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.26,-0.426,-0.114
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.212,-0.345,-0.096
+DeepAR,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.236,-0.374,-0.112
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.163,-0.293,-0.041
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.192,-0.391,-0.026
+DeepAR,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.103,-0.272,0.045
+DeepAR,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.026,-0.23,0.149
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.057,-0.184,0.06
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.219,0.07,0.365
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.276,-0.442,-0.119
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.407,-0.088
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.366,-0.172
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.194,-0.347,-0.043
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.217,-0.382,-0.048
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.236,-0.363,-0.126
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.192,-0.324,-0.067
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.146,-0.268,-0.018
+CatBoost,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.169,-0.288,-0.063
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.1,-0.228,0.029
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.127,-0.302,0.027
+CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.043,-0.161,0.071
+CatBoost,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.03,-0.113,0.175
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.054,-0.063,0.155
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.261,0.126,0.384
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.204,-0.402
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.694,-1.116,-0.391
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.615,-1.022,-0.312
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.692,-1.082,-0.407
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.616,-1.022,-0.311
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.647,-1.071,-0.346
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.938,-0.393
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.672,-1.007,-0.432
 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.931,-0.394
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.551,-0.924,-0.269
 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.581,-0.947,-0.321
@@ -221,6 +252,6 @@ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.488,-0.838,-0.223
 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.875,-0.291
 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.411,-0.556,-0.286
 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.313,-0.578,-0.002
-Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.213,-0.424,-0.01
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.128,-0.33,0.087
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.28,-0.576,-0.076
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.353,-0.625,-0.144
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,91.20879120879124,35.398352594765115,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,75.41208791208793,25.111125985019022,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,74.17582417582418,24.470577245081294,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,70.05494505494507,24.79493117234646,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,67.03296703296704,28.931010322468566,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,65.65934065934066,23.276855755353097,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0
-Sundial-Base,64.69780219780219,25.973734598235776,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
-Toto-1.0,64.56043956043956,22.175386726803193,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,39.83516483516484,5.123802463450922,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385
-AutoARIMA,36.53846153846153,3.34881134283036,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385
-Seasonal Naive,30.35714285714285,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,28.57142857142857,1.1815957493498508,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,17.857142857142858,-34.975498607867614,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0
-Naive,17.44505494505494,-44.77392099300393,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0
-Drift,6.593406593406594,-52.299123287549286,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,90.00000000000001,35.398351985937104,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,74.23076923076923,25.111125954829205,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,73.26923076923076,24.470577229456005,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,73.07692307692307,29.948417313219487,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,69.61538461538461,24.79493112223894,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,67.5,24.74097538777954,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,66.53846153846153,23.276855703905884,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0
+Sundial-Base,64.61538461538461,25.973733886600225,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
+Toto-1.0,63.46153846153847,22.17352687153604,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+TFT,54.61538461538462,24.332626654075018,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,50.480769230769226,20.515410969632153,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538
+PatchTST,47.11538461538461,18.853426287300014,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,47.11538461538461,17.15191259995018,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,43.269230769230774,14.854815383201469,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,36.0576923076923,4.447406228151163,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925
+AutoARIMA,34.13461538461538,2.212327431466543,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925
+Seasonal Naive,27.307692307692307,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,26.730769230769237,1.1815956958414753,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,18.076923076923077,-34.97549884253801,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0
+Naive,16.057692307692307,-44.773921203129,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0
+Drift,6.730769230769232,-52.29912347479908,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,93.13186813186815,43.69603844728434,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,82.28021978021978,34.44791487661235,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,75.82417582417582,33.04019456805117,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,73.62637362637363,38.076295973948326,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,70.6043956043956,32.88168947733126,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,68.13186813186815,31.522824785428526,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0
-Toto-1.0,67.03296703296705,31.075422556050736,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0
-Sundial-Base,55.35714285714286,28.52842382801387,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
-AutoARIMA,39.28571428571428,9.387893004882919,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385
-Stat. Ensemble,37.08791208791208,7.135433823240489,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385
-Seasonal Naive,25.96153846153846,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,24.725274725274723,-30.21022947475347,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,20.05494505494506,-10.643501735785609,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0
-Naive,13.873626373626374,-60.57154436477256,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0
-Drift,3.0219780219780215,-67.3016516015588,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,92.11538461538463,43.696037899366445,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,80.96153846153847,34.44791484004565,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,78.07692307692308,38.63838178079146,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,75.57692307692308,33.040194549839576,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,71.34615384615385,32.881689430291104,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,70.96153846153847,32.4100685185642,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,68.84615384615384,31.52282472603488,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0
+Toto-1.0,68.26923076923077,31.112045696230428,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+TFT,61.73076923076925,32.085719324643314,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,55.96153846153846,28.52842311909273,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
+DeepAR,53.17307692307692,26.66949092254881,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538
+PatchTST,51.34615384615384,25.60679591439182,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,39.13461538461539,9.139931178596383,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925
+Stat. Ensemble,35.67307692307692,6.196332966589502,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925
+CatBoost,32.69230769230768,8.874064288365757,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,29.038461538461537,6.34745033907752,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,25.769230769230774,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,22.307692307692303,-30.210229740669558,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,20.769230769230766,-10.643501874241924,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0
+Naive,12.019230769230766,-60.57154490567112,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0
+Drift,4.230769230769231,-67.3016518958006,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,88.73626373626375,37.55790132014533,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,69.78021978021978,26.657949622489184,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0
-TiRex,69.36813186813188,27.32266216368823,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,65.93406593406594,26.60685234340968,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,65.38461538461539,30.329432122077236,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,64.01098901098902,25.999880752887982,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0
-Sundial-Base,60.85164835164834,28.26554433861671,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
-Toto-1.0,58.79120879120878,24.17115830675096,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,44.23076923076924,6.664281180112875,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385
-AutoARIMA,33.51648351648351,2.7340402546184417,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385
-AutoTheta,29.670329670329664,4.200265512517798,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0
-Naive,27.884615384615387,-29.595393684781012,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,27.609890109890113,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,27.472527472527474,-24.061974944434183,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0
-Drift,16.75824175824176,-36.91555350097882,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,87.30769230769232,37.557901536977845,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,68.65384615384616,27.322662354204475,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,68.46153846153847,26.65794953458317,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,67.5,30.36322876478197,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,65.76923076923077,26.606852502371968,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,64.61538461538461,25.99988075597758,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0
+FlowState,61.53846153846153,26.89142712985859,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+Sundial-Base,60.57692307692307,28.265544600882,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
+Toto-1.0,58.84615384615385,24.207524581618266,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+TFT,55.38461538461539,26.59412613673687,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,49.423076923076934,20.65325504182872,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,48.46153846153848,20.63835609604817,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,48.36538461538463,21.82047445619971,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538
+CatBoost,47.30769230769232,20.174610152005823,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,42.019230769230774,8.430993583997726,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925
+AutoARIMA,32.019230769230774,3.8316800542679386,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925
+AutoTheta,28.46153846153846,4.200265666572001,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0
+Naive,26.82692307692308,-29.595393529303713,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,26.538461538461544,-24.06197476117884,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,25.0,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0
+Drift,16.923076923076923,-36.91555319026642,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,93.6813186813187,45.99295406512989,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,80.35714285714286,37.01592382634481,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,75.54945054945054,39.82364919499898,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,75.27472527472527,35.74711031825937,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,69.78021978021978,35.346534617319236,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,67.85714285714288,34.54029719816187,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0
-Toto-1.0,65.10989010989012,33.6346956535905,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0
-Sundial-Base,54.807692307692314,31.42058530075822,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,40.10989010989011,9.81188536974501,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385
-AutoARIMA,38.18681318681318,9.717573374612886,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385
-AutoETS,23.626373626373624,-24.269495265740982,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,23.214285714285715,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,21.7032967032967,-4.896832263246642,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0
-Naive,14.972527472527469,-50.97673020090387,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0
-Drift,5.769230769230769,-57.44553174606462,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,92.5,45.99295404026385,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,78.46153846153847,37.015923795326046,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,76.34615384615384,39.634990899313024,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,73.84615384615384,35.74711028493935,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,70.38461538461537,35.346534587472554,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,70.38461538461537,35.238708603025636,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,68.46153846153847,34.54029716114274,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0
+Toto-1.0,66.34615384615385,33.68160197994784,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0
+TFT,62.11538461538463,34.858358688960024,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,55.19230769230769,31.420585268607393,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0
+PatchTST,52.88461538461539,28.17762114987711,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,50.86538461538462,28.82551876839535,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538
+Stat. Ensemble,38.75,11.001763956139254,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925
+LightGBM,38.46153846153847,13.804281918946282,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,37.01923076923076,10.956865003323434,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925
+CatBoost,33.84615384615384,13.30060154143199,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,22.692307692307693,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,21.538461538461537,-4.896832310667398,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,20.769230769230766,-24.269495322854407,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0
+Naive,12.98076923076923,-50.976730476610335,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0
+Drift,6.153846153846154,-57.44553171159505,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.137,0.066,0.203
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.078,0.038,0.118
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.145,0.072,0.212
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.141,0.078,0.202
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.091,0.047,0.134
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.142,0.073,0.202
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.158,0.092,0.222
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.127,0.069,0.195
 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.17,0.105,0.237
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.319,0.239,0.385
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.249,0.404
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.146,0.077,0.225
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.187,0.124,0.248
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.204,0.133,0.276
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.22,0.157,0.289
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.241,0.177,0.312
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.324,0.247,0.39
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.354,0.278,0.422
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.278,0.408
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.521,0.418,0.612
-Chronos-2,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.554,0.468,0.626
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.494,0.643
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.159,-0.255,-0.07
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.069,-0.171,0.013
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.519,0.327,0.731,0.008,-0.015,0.033
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.558,0.385,0.731,0.004,-0.021,0.032
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.054,-0.16,0.039
+TiRex,FlowState,0.481,0.308,0.654,0.005,-0.022,0.033
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.558,0.365,0.731,0.024,-0.003,0.056
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,-0.012,-0.103,0.066
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.038,0.01,0.068
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.211,0.152,0.27
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.225,0.159,0.292
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.038,0.011,0.068
+TiRex,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.01,-0.1,0.105
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.058,-0.036,0.136
+TiRex,PatchTST,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.077,-0.032,0.158
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.096,0.01,0.19
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.12,0.039,0.216
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.216,0.159,0.275
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.251,0.191,0.308
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.194,0.299
-TiRex,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.445,0.339,0.543
-TiRex,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.483,0.403,0.556
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.431,0.578
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.084,-0.133,-0.039
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.065,-0.014,0.146
+TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.073,-0.003,0.152
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.069,0.002,0.143
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.069,-0.011,0.143
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.087,0.008,0.169
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.054,-0.036,0.143
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.1,0.022,0.181
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.074,0.009,0.144
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.119,0.054,0.187
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.137,0.066,0.207
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.154,0.078,0.242
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.177,0.104,0.259
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.267,0.186,0.336
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.299,0.216,0.373
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.169,-0.269,-0.077
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.481,0.269,0.673,-0.009,-0.034,0.014
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.078,-0.179,0.003
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.769,-0.004,-0.033,0.024
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.063,-0.171,0.028
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.004,-0.035,0.027
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.808,0.016,-0.028,0.057
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.02,-0.113,0.062
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.692,0.519,0.846,0.029,-0.006,0.071
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.204,0.139,0.271
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.219,0.146,0.291
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.692,0.519,0.846,0.03,-0.006,0.071
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.847,0.002,-0.108,0.104
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.05,-0.044,0.13
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.069,-0.047,0.159
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.088,-0.003,0.185
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.113,0.028,0.215
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.21,0.15,0.274
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.245,0.182,0.306
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.18,0.299
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.44,0.337,0.539
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.478,0.392,0.555
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.424,0.577
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.164,-0.254,-0.085
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.442,0.269,0.615,-0.004,-0.034,0.02
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.074,-0.167,-0.002
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.231,0.596,0.004,-0.025,0.032
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.058,-0.158,0.022
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.001,-0.035,0.028
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.423,0.731,0.02,-0.022,0.064
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.558,0.365,0.731,-0.016,-0.106,0.062
 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.034,-0.001,0.072
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.207,0.148,0.271
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.154,0.29
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.006,-0.09,0.099
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.054,-0.045,0.134
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.073,-0.045,0.164
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.092,0.002,0.189
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.117,0.036,0.209
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.213,0.154,0.273
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.248,0.188,0.306
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.19,0.297
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.443,0.333,0.545
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.481,0.396,0.556
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.425,0.578
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.1,-0.155,-0.049
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.051,-0.04,0.138
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.059,-0.029,0.146
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.055,-0.023,0.137
-TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.074,-0.012,0.16
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.04,-0.055,0.135
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.087,0.004,0.175
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.251,0.16,0.326
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.265,0.165,0.351
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.289,0.198,0.368
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.281,0.201,0.352
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.473,0.356,0.578
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.509,0.418,0.588
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.533,0.444,0.61
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.165,-0.253,-0.079
+FlowState,TiRex,0.519,0.346,0.692,-0.005,-0.034,0.022
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.074,-0.167,0.011
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.004,-0.027,0.034
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.001,-0.029,0.034
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.307,0.635,0.019,-0.019,0.062
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.017,-0.106,0.06
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.033,-0.002,0.073
+FlowState,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.847,0.005,-0.1,0.104
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.053,-0.045,0.139
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.073,-0.04,0.158
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.092,0.001,0.19
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.654,0.5,0.846,0.116,0.033,0.216
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.212,0.146,0.276
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.247,0.177,0.309
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.188,-0.285,-0.101
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.442,0.269,0.635,-0.024,-0.059,0.003
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.095,-0.203,-0.008
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.558,-0.016,-0.061,0.027
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.577,-0.02,-0.068,0.021
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.08,-0.19,0.012
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.693,-0.019,-0.066,0.018
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.462,0.789,-0.036,-0.136,0.048
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.462,0.788,0.014,-0.011,0.043
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.191,0.118,0.256
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.206,0.128,0.282
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.462,0.788,0.014,-0.01,0.043
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.014,-0.134,0.091
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.035,-0.058,0.115
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.055,-0.05,0.136
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.074,-0.016,0.165
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.099,0.014,0.195
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.197,0.124,0.263
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.233,0.167,0.293
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.224,0.168,0.284
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.432,0.314,0.538
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.47,0.388,0.545
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.418,0.568
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.146,-0.242,-0.074
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.25,0.096,0.404,0.012,-0.071,0.093
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.057,-0.166,0.035
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.02,-0.066,0.101
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.442,0.269,0.635,0.016,-0.066,0.096
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.042,-0.156,0.052
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.016,-0.064,0.096
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.365,0.211,0.538,0.035,-0.051,0.119
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.481,0.308,0.654,0.049,-0.032,0.129
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.22,0.136,0.296
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.234,0.147,0.311
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.481,0.308,0.654,0.049,-0.031,0.129
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.022,-0.092,0.137
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.069,-0.036,0.16
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.088,-0.042,0.196
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.106,0.014,0.193
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.131,0.035,0.224
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.225,0.145,0.3
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.26,0.177,0.334
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.251,0.176,0.319
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.452,0.336,0.538
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.489,0.393,0.575
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.421,0.597
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.205,-0.311,-0.117
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.039,-0.073,-0.01
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.154,0.481,-0.03,-0.077,0.006
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.205,-0.31,-0.117
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.039,-0.073,-0.011
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.111,-0.221,-0.022
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.154,0.481,-0.03,-0.076,0.006
 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.035,-0.078,0.001
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.095,-0.212,-0.004
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.212,0.538,-0.014,-0.045,0.011
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.519,0.346,0.692,-0.051,-0.148,0.031
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.034,-0.078,0.002
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.212,0.538,-0.014,-0.045,0.01
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.519,0.346,0.692,-0.051,-0.149,0.03
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.18,0.109,0.243
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.195,0.122,0.268
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.222,0.159,0.279
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.212,0.153,0.276
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.423,0.311,0.528
-Toto-1.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.462,0.385,0.537
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.414,0.559
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.469,-0.625,-0.314
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.267,-0.369,-0.179
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.256,-0.371,-0.162
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.262,-0.372,-0.173
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.335,-0.483,-0.19
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.237,-0.345,-0.134
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.282,-0.419,-0.158
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.219,-0.322,-0.123
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.029,-0.148,0.074
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.021,-0.073,0.101
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.041,-0.081,0.135
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.061,-0.023,0.15
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.086,0.008,0.18
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.186,0.116,0.251
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.222,0.159,0.278
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.171,-0.291,-0.083
+TFT,TiRex,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.01,-0.118,0.091
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.08,-0.168,-0.009
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.153,0.5,-0.002,-0.117,0.097
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.006,-0.11,0.082
+TFT,FlowState,0.308,0.153,0.5,-0.005,-0.117,0.091
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.014,-0.1,0.118
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.022,-0.158,0.084
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.028,-0.08,0.129
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,DeepAR,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.048,-0.02,0.118
+TFT,PatchTST,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.068,-0.003,0.135
+TFT,CatBoost,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.087,-0.039,0.193
+TFT,LightGBM,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.111,0.003,0.212
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.208,0.11,0.288
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.243,0.154,0.321
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.23,-0.329,-0.141
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.061,-0.157,0.035
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.135,-0.23,-0.057
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.052,-0.15,0.043
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.057,-0.154,0.043
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.056,-0.161,0.043
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.036,-0.129,0.055
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.074,-0.191,0.035
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.021,-0.112,0.068
+DeepAR,TFT,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.05,-0.133,0.019
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.02,-0.053,0.083
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.041,-0.044,0.124
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.066,-0.013,0.16
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.712,0.538,0.885,0.168,0.084,0.253
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.827,0.692,0.942,0.205,0.122,0.287
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.256,-0.381,-0.154
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.084,-0.187,0.031
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.158,-0.261,-0.071
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.074,-0.189,0.045
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.079,-0.196,0.043
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.078,-0.188,0.038
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.058,-0.158,0.047
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.096,-0.245,0.04
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.043,-0.156,0.075
+PatchTST,TFT,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.072,-0.156,0.003
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.021,-0.091,0.051
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.021,-0.104,0.133
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.047,-0.072,0.159
+PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.151,0.054,0.243
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.189,0.084,0.286
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.282,-0.407,-0.186
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.106,-0.235,-0.01
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.183,-0.319,-0.084
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.097,-0.227,0.003
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.102,-0.233,-0.002
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.101,-0.235,-0.001
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.08,-0.197,0.015
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.119,-0.239,-0.014
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.065,-0.176,0.022
+CatBoost,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.095,-0.239,0.038
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.042,-0.141,0.042
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.021,-0.153,0.094
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.027,-0.007,0.063
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.133,0.007,0.229
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.172,0.062,0.26
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.318,-0.454,-0.215
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.137,-0.276,-0.041
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.215,-0.349,-0.116
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.127,-0.274,-0.029
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.132,-0.264,-0.038
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.346,0.154,0.5,-0.131,-0.276,-0.034
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.11,-0.242,-0.014
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.15,-0.289,-0.036
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.094,-0.22,-0.008
+LightGBM,TFT,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.125,-0.269,-0.003
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.071,-0.19,0.013
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.049,-0.189,0.067
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.028,-0.067,0.007
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.109,-0.03,0.212
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.149,0.03,0.24
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.479,-0.638,-0.327
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.276,-0.38,-0.189
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.364,-0.507,-0.229
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.265,-0.377,-0.177
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.271,-0.376,-0.181
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.27,-0.381,-0.171
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.245,-0.356,-0.141
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.291,-0.429,-0.169
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.228,-0.335,-0.131
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.263,-0.404,-0.124
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.288,0.115,0.462,-0.202,-0.338,-0.092
+Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.178,-0.32,-0.057
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.153,-0.297,-0.007
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.122,-0.269,0.029
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.018,-0.016,0.053
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.051,0.016,0.084
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.04,0.001,0.079
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.297,0.19,0.407
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.345,0.25,0.433
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.377,0.289,0.468
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.679,-0.332
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.291,-0.413,-0.189
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.28,-0.41,-0.171
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.409,-0.182
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.36,-0.541,-0.198
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.26,-0.393,-0.147
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.306,-0.451,-0.172
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.242,-0.366,-0.139
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.019,-0.056,0.015
-AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.033,0.006,0.059
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.022,-0.033,0.071
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.284,0.172,0.395
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.332,0.237,0.426
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.365,0.272,0.453
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.519,0.865,0.044,0.003,0.082
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.548,-0.729,-0.384
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.335,-0.445,-0.237
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.428,-0.596,-0.276
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.324,-0.441,-0.223
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.33,-0.44,-0.232
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.407,-0.582,-0.246
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.329,-0.447,-0.215
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.303,-0.415,-0.201
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.351,-0.501,-0.215
 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.285,-0.386,-0.189
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.054,-0.092,-0.016
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.035,-0.063,-0.006
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.322,-0.473,-0.182
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.173,0.058,0.308,-0.258,-0.402,-0.139
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.232,-0.4,-0.091
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.207,-0.351,-0.067
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.174,-0.316,-0.031
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.308,0.135,0.481,-0.047,-0.09,-0.003
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.012,-0.067,0.043
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.259,0.139,0.381
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.309,0.211,0.405
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.343,0.25,0.435
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.689,-0.384
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.427,-0.24
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.308,-0.427,-0.22
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.423,-0.234
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.39,-0.542,-0.251
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.288,-0.396,-0.202
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.335,-0.468,-0.214
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.27,-0.38,-0.18
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.042,-0.085,-0.001
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.022,-0.077,0.032
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.012,-0.045,0.062
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.268,0.146,0.396
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.317,0.221,0.409
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.351,0.259,0.44
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.089,-1.579,-0.717
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.802,-1.187,-0.513
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.787,-1.17,-0.507
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.795,-1.196,-0.5
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.899,-1.372,-0.554
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.759,-1.164,-0.458
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.823,-1.166,-0.506
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.734,-1.118,-0.451
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.423,-0.687,-0.234
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.397,-0.654,-0.208
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.35,-0.615,-0.161
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.366,-0.655,-0.17
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,Naive,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.068,-0.078,0.212
-AutoETS,Drift,0.577,0.385,0.732,0.114,-0.03,0.253
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.241,-1.671,-0.879
-Naive,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.933,-1.254,-0.676
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.917,-1.248,-0.645
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.925,-1.252,-0.656
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.037,-1.429,-0.718
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.887,-1.2,-0.635
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.956,-1.353,-0.646
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.86,-1.159,-0.625
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.526,-0.765,-0.333
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.498,-0.742,-0.31
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.448,-0.68,-0.267
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.465,-0.692,-0.283
-Naive,AutoETS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.073,-0.269,0.072
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.049,0.03,0.073
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.358,-1.804,-0.976
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.369,-0.759
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.016,-1.363,-0.736
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.025,-1.372,-0.739
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.143,-1.562,-0.797
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.985,-1.317,-0.718
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.057,-1.483,-0.728
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.957,-1.265,-0.707
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.605,-0.879,-0.406
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.576,-0.828,-0.373
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.523,-0.771,-0.333
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.541,-0.784,-0.35
-Drift,AutoETS,0.423,0.268,0.615,-0.128,-0.339,0.029
-Drift,Naive,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.052,-0.078,-0.031
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.141,0.072,0.204
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.082,0.044,0.12
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.159,0.083,0.225
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.091,0.05,0.131
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.161,0.096,0.219
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.167,0.099,0.227
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.178,0.111,0.242
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.183,0.115,0.25
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.183,0.115,0.249
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.171,0.1,0.25
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.212,0.157,0.275
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.297,0.45
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.317,0.461
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.232,0.166,0.297
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.243,0.162,0.32
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.299,0.452
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.321,0.466
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.331,0.438
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.368,0.497
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.468,0.65
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.407,0.574
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.573,0.716
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.663,0.591,0.728
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.164,-0.257,-0.078
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.068,-0.171,0.014
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.673,0.481,0.846,0.021,-0.002,0.045
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.059,-0.164,0.029
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.577,0.885,0.023,-0.005,0.052
+TiRex,FlowState,0.635,0.461,0.808,0.03,0.003,0.06
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.043,0.014,0.075
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.049,0.024,0.077
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.048,0.024,0.076
+TiRex,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.035,-0.07,0.132
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.635,0.923,0.083,0.009,0.153
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.277,0.21,0.351
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.294,0.229,0.365
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.106,0.011,0.184
+TiRex,PatchTST,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.119,0.006,0.204
+TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.279,0.212,0.354
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.301,0.231,0.376
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.281,0.212,0.353
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.286,0.404
-TiRex,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.497,0.4,0.581
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.321,0.5
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.513,0.666
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.608,0.534,0.676
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.09,-0.136,-0.046
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.064,-0.014,0.146
+TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.084,0.006,0.167
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.086,0.022,0.16
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.092,0.015,0.166
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.104,0.024,0.189
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.109,0.026,0.194
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.096,0.03,0.168
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.141,0.058,0.225
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.163,0.093,0.233
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.175,0.093,0.252
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.325,0.235,0.412
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.259,0.424
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.261,0.398
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.308,0.462
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.189,-0.291,-0.09
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.519,-0.021,-0.047,0.002
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.091,-0.2,-0.006
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.081,-0.195,0.009
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.002,-0.028,0.029
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.04
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.808,0.022,-0.023,0.067
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.029,-0.01,0.069
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.028,-0.012,0.068
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.014,-0.1,0.121
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.635,0.923,0.063,-0.021,0.143
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.191,0.336
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.279,0.207,0.357
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.087,-0.014,0.169
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.1,-0.022,0.197
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.194,0.338
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.286,0.211,0.364
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.265,0.191,0.344
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.269,0.394
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.486,0.387,0.574
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.304,0.497
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.5,0.659
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.6,0.521,0.672
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.1,-0.15,-0.052
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.055,-0.03,0.141
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.075,-0.009,0.163
-TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.077,0.005,0.156
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.096,0.014,0.181
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.102,0.017,0.189
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.134,0.048,0.222
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.317,0.222,0.406
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.333,0.243,0.417
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.298,0.457
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.524,0.416,0.616
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.342,0.539
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.614,0.529,0.691
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.63,0.547,0.702
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.192,-0.28,-0.106
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.115,0.423,-0.024,-0.055,0.005
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.094,-0.19,-0.023
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.002,-0.03,0.027
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.084,-0.185,-0.005
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.007,-0.03,0.039
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.327,0.654,0.02,-0.025,0.07
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.026,-0.012,0.068
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.026,-0.013,0.068
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.012,-0.089,0.108
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.061,-0.024,0.136
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.191,0.333
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.277,0.211,0.349
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.085,-0.018,0.167
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.098,-0.023,0.194
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.191,0.335
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.284,0.214,0.358
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.263,0.189,0.342
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.273,0.388
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.485,0.384,0.576
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.304,0.492
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.5,0.654
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.52,0.667
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.2,-0.294,-0.11
+FlowState,TiRex,0.365,0.192,0.539,-0.031,-0.064,-0.003
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.102,-0.199,-0.015
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.042,0.022
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.007,-0.041,0.029
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.384,0.712,0.013,-0.029,0.059
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.269,0.596,0.019,-0.019,0.059
+FlowState,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.005,-0.107,0.109
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.712,0.538,0.885,0.054,-0.029,0.13
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.078,-0.024,0.167
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.091,-0.027,0.182
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.256,0.181,0.338
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.279,0.201,0.363
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.258,0.184,0.339
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.324,0.259,0.389
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.216,-0.319,-0.125
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.045,-0.081,-0.014
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.116,-0.233,-0.025
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.558,-0.023,-0.071,0.023
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.106,-0.221,-0.014
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.346,0.673,-0.02,-0.075,0.025
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.616,-0.013,-0.062,0.029
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.423,0.75,0.006,-0.016,0.035
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.423,0.75,0.006,-0.016,0.034
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.008,-0.129,0.098
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.042,-0.051,0.124
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.244,0.163,0.328
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.263,0.18,0.345
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.066,-0.029,0.147
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.08,-0.033,0.167
+Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.246,0.167,0.331
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.27,0.187,0.356
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.249,0.177,0.322
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.315,0.249,0.385
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.474,0.366,0.571
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.381,0.287,0.48
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.574,0.491,0.651
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.511,0.663
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.224,-0.333,-0.13
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.051,-0.084,-0.025
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.029,-0.075,0.01
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.113,-0.232,-0.018
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.027,-0.073,0.012
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.577,-0.007,-0.036,0.016
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.224,-0.332,-0.13
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.051,-0.082,-0.024
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.123,-0.241,-0.027
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.029,-0.073,0.011
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.026,-0.072,0.013
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.577,0.404,0.731,-0.019,-0.063,0.019
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.577,-0.006,-0.035,0.016
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.014,-0.138,0.092
 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.036,-0.053,0.113
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.239,0.163,0.318
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.258,0.178,0.337
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.311,0.247,0.377
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.471,0.366,0.564
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.377,0.277,0.477
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.49,0.645
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.51,0.658
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.061,-0.039,0.142
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.074,-0.05,0.169
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.242,0.164,0.324
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.266,0.185,0.346
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.244,0.176,0.316
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.311,0.248,0.377
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.206,-0.334,-0.111
+TFT,TiRex,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.036,-0.151,0.066
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.107,-0.202,-0.031
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.014,-0.138,0.091
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.012,-0.121,0.082
+TFT,FlowState,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.005,-0.122,0.097
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.008,-0.108,0.114
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.014,-0.102,0.121
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.05,-0.077,0.156
+TFT,DeepAR,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.074,-0.014,0.155
+TFT,PatchTST,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.087,0.008,0.164
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.253,0.134,0.349
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.276,0.161,0.373
+TFT,CatBoost,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.255,0.15,0.342
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.321,0.223,0.403
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.269,-0.379,-0.186
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.365,-0.09,-0.18,-0.009
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.165,-0.29,-0.062
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.212,0.077,0.365,-0.067,-0.168,0.021
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.154,-0.285,-0.05
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.065,-0.157,0.023
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.288,0.115,0.462,-0.057,-0.15,0.028
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.044,-0.142,0.048
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.037,-0.127,0.05
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.038,-0.127,0.05
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.052,-0.184,0.071
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.211,0.119,0.291
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.23,0.145,0.306
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.025,-0.089,0.128
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.577,0.385,0.731,0.039,-0.107,0.161
+Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.213,0.123,0.293
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.238,0.15,0.314
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.216,0.13,0.293
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.285,0.209,0.359
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.451,0.336,0.535
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.354,0.246,0.448
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.555,0.46,0.641
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.573,0.482,0.653
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-0.817,-0.423
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.382,-0.541,-0.266
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.505,-0.237
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.463,-0.683,-0.285
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.499,-0.236
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.323,-0.488,-0.195
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.315,-0.466,-0.195
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.268,-0.41,-0.135
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.302,-0.423,-0.199
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.119,-0.226,-0.011
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.195,-0.304,-0.103
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.095,-0.204,0.014
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.093,-0.201,0.018
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.085,-0.201,0.023
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.071,-0.172,0.029
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.064,-0.165,0.037
+DeepAR,TFT,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.08,-0.184,0.014
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.026,-0.147,0.082
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.014,-0.074,0.094
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.193,0.082,0.302
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.218,0.111,0.323
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.195,0.119,0.274
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.827,0.692,0.942,0.267,0.17,0.363
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.321,-0.471,-0.193
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.135,-0.257,-0.006
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.212,-0.338,-0.103
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.111,-0.245,0.021
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.108,-0.241,0.022
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.101,-0.222,0.027
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.086,-0.2,0.032
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.08,-0.204,0.048
+PatchTST,TFT,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.095,-0.196,-0.008
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.423,0.269,0.615,-0.041,-0.192,0.097
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.014,-0.103,0.069
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.181,0.048,0.308
+PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.207,0.087,0.325
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.184,0.07,0.283
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.256,0.142,0.364
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.823,-0.426
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.386,-0.548,-0.268
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.481,-0.701,-0.308
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.511,-0.24
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.503,-0.236
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.344,-0.51,-0.221
+AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.327,-0.494,-0.2
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.319,-0.48,-0.197
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.338,-0.537,-0.155
+AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.271,-0.414,-0.14
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.239,-0.433,-0.089
+AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.221,-0.446,-0.05
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.615,0.423,0.788,0.024,-0.008,0.057
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.769,0.962,0.094,0.068,0.121
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.304,0.194,0.406
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.181,0.078,0.284
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.436,0.348,0.519
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.458,0.375,0.539
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.854,-0.464
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.417,-0.575,-0.297
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.387,-0.556,-0.262
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.5,-0.715,-0.32
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.384,-0.536,-0.268
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.356,-0.526,-0.219
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.347,-0.509,-0.217
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.299,-0.441,-0.169
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.385,0.212,0.577,-0.025,-0.061,0.008
+AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.615,0.423,0.788,0.031,-0.004,0.067
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.003,-0.142,0.14
+AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.769,0.981,0.091,0.061,0.123
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-0.873,-0.473
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.431,-0.603,-0.3
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.736,-0.349
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.401,-0.573,-0.268
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.398,-0.558,-0.272
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.388,-0.57,-0.252
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.37,-0.554,-0.23
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.362,-0.529,-0.227
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.381,-0.594,-0.192
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.312,-0.459,-0.176
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.279,-0.478,-0.124
+Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.261,-0.481,-0.096
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.385,0.212,0.577,-0.032,-0.071,0.004
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.577,0.865,0.071,0.03,0.11
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.287,0.178,0.394
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.161,0.074,0.253
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.422,0.329,0.507
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.445,0.359,0.526
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.029,-0.187,0.124
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.558,0.885,0.062,0.012,0.107
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.78,-0.496
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.39,-0.545,-0.269
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.66,-0.354
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.361,-0.525,-0.236
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.358,-0.52,-0.234
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.348,-0.513,-0.225
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.331,-0.476,-0.215
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.323,-0.463,-0.214
+CatBoost,TFT,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.342,-0.52,-0.176
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.275,-0.415,-0.15
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.243,-0.378,-0.134
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.225,-0.395,-0.075
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.003,-0.163,0.124
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.029,-0.141,0.157
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.089,-0.041,0.198
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-0.987,-0.581
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.526,-0.679,-0.401
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.858,-0.445
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.493,-0.65,-0.368
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.841,-0.425
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.633,-0.376
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.48,-0.638,-0.35
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.46,-0.627,-0.331
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.451,-0.605,-0.329
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.452,-0.604,-0.33
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.472,-0.675,-0.286
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.399,-0.56,-0.264
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.038,0.231,-0.104,-0.138,-0.073
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.135,0.423,-0.077,-0.124,-0.031
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.173,0.058,0.308,-0.364,-0.571,-0.205
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.344,-0.571,-0.166
+Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.019,0.231,-0.101,-0.14,-0.065
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.115,0.442,-0.066,-0.12,-0.012
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.097,-0.246,0.04
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.615,0.423,0.77,0.232,0.1,0.359
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.096,-0.022,0.215
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.865,0.75,0.962,0.377,0.284,0.463
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.311,0.485
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.313,-1.857,-0.881
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.986,-1.387,-0.666
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.945,-1.345,-0.631
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.103,-1.606,-0.713
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.94,-1.357,-0.624
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.902,-1.33,-0.578
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.889,-1.292,-0.576
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.822,-1.149,-0.507
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.437,-0.684,-0.241
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.402,-0.651,-0.217
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.385,0.23,0.577,-0.302,-0.559,-0.111
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.177,-0.448,0.013
-AutoETS,Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.189,0.022,0.343
-AutoETS,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.222,0.059,0.368
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.965,-1.35,-0.685
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.688,-0.999,-0.474
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-0.988,-0.437
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.168,-0.519
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.648,-0.97,-0.437
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.616,-0.923,-0.402
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.605,-0.913,-0.384
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.548,-0.811,-0.327
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.221,-0.397,-0.085
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.191,-0.339,-0.08
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.106,-0.273,0.022
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.15,-0.013,0.309
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.311,0.19,0.426
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.339,0.219,0.449
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.852,-2.524,-1.341
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.45,-1.993,-1.054
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.398,-1.932,-1.0
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.593,-2.233,-1.123
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.392,-1.887,-1.001
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.345,-1.866,-0.964
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.33,-1.815,-0.961
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.247,-1.782,-0.853
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.772,-1.079,-0.535
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.729,-1.027,-0.491
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.135,0.038,0.25,-0.606,-0.862,-0.397
-Naive,AutoETS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.233,-0.521,-0.023
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.451,-0.743,-0.234
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.04,0.025,0.057
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.971,-2.673,-1.447
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.552,-2.088,-1.148
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.499,-2.051,-1.089
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.702,-2.354,-1.208
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.493,-2.007,-1.085
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.443,-1.963,-1.045
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.427,-1.926,-1.041
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.341,-1.884,-0.929
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.846,-1.169,-0.599
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.802,-1.111,-0.559
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.942,-0.452
-Drift,AutoETS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.285,-0.583,-0.063
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.512,-0.816,-0.28
-Drift,Naive,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.042,-0.06,-0.026
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.149,0.075,0.214
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.103,0.035,0.178
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.141,0.074,0.204
+Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.149,0.075,0.214
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.149,0.081,0.219
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.104,0.034,0.174
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.156,0.089,0.221
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.146,0.079,0.202
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.13,0.071,0.194
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.177,0.109,0.245
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.331,0.242,0.409
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.358,0.267,0.438
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.348,0.276,0.418
-Chronos-2,Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.518,0.403,0.613
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.176,0.109,0.244
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.149,0.061,0.236
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.213,0.112,0.302
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.201,0.118,0.276
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.213,0.142,0.288
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.218,0.15,0.293
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.318,0.232,0.398
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.376,0.282,0.449
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.497,0.365,0.605
-Chronos-2,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.544,0.439,0.636
-TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.175,-0.273,-0.081
-TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.442,0.25,0.635,-0.009,-0.043,0.023
-TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.674,0.001,-0.039,0.042
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.053,-0.161,0.048
-TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.046,0.062
-TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.022,-0.12,0.067
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.033,-0.012,0.081
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.615,0.962,0.214,0.126,0.294
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.246,0.159,0.324
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.234,0.168,0.307
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.434,0.317,0.538
-TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.267,0.184,0.338
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.409,0.27,0.532
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.464,0.352,0.562
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.115,-0.216,-0.036
+TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.042,-0.07,0.138
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.047,0.137
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.035,0.132
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.059,-0.056,0.163
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.047,-0.06,0.132
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.029,-0.086,0.132
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.081,-0.022,0.177
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.615,0.462,0.808,0.051,-0.037,0.133
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.122,0.043,0.201
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.109,0.04,0.174
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.692,0.538,0.847,0.123,0.035,0.22
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.128,0.017,0.234
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.24,0.135,0.332
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.304,0.213,0.381
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.164,-0.256,-0.08
-TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.558,0.365,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.041
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.044,-0.161,0.065
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.558,0.365,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.041
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.481,0.308,0.673,0.01,-0.028,0.06
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.043,-0.165,0.065
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.442,0.269,0.615,0.018,-0.013,0.051
+TiRex,FlowState,0.519,0.346,0.692,0.006,-0.029,0.041
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.462,0.808,-0.013,-0.12,0.076
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.712,0.538,0.885,0.042,0.009,0.077
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.221,0.134,0.303
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.253,0.169,0.337
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.179,0.313
-TiRex,Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.439,0.321,0.545
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.712,0.538,0.885,0.041,0.009,0.076
+TiRex,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.01,-0.106,0.113
+TiRex,PatchTST,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.084,-0.054,0.194
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.07,-0.044,0.169
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.084,-0.01,0.187
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.09,-0.003,0.186
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.206,0.125,0.286
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.273,0.184,0.352
-TiRex,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.414,0.268,0.54
-TiRex,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.469,0.354,0.568
+TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.175,-0.273,-0.081
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.053,-0.159,0.045
+TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.442,0.25,0.635,-0.009,-0.043,0.023
+TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.674,0.001,-0.039,0.042
+TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.046,0.062
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.003,-0.048,0.038
+TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.022,-0.12,0.067
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.032,-0.012,0.081
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.001,-0.117,0.102
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.076,-0.062,0.182
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.062,-0.049,0.157
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.076,-0.014,0.181
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.081,-0.011,0.182
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.615,0.962,0.199,0.119,0.279
+TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.267,0.184,0.338
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.175,-0.28,-0.089
-Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.326,0.673,-0.001,-0.044,0.038
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.054,-0.152,0.034
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.519,0.327,0.692,-0.01,-0.064,0.027
+Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.326,0.673,-0.001,-0.044,0.038
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.053,-0.157,0.036
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.731,0.008,-0.066,0.068
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.327,0.673,-0.004,-0.072,0.041
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.519,0.327,0.692,-0.023,-0.128,0.067
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.032,-0.022,0.081
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.214,0.122,0.3
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.245,0.16,0.331
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.234,0.166,0.312
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.434,0.311,0.538
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.032,-0.022,0.08
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.0,-0.101,0.094
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.075,-0.054,0.176
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.061,-0.05,0.151
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.075,-0.017,0.18
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.081,-0.023,0.185
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.198,0.108,0.286
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.266,0.183,0.339
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.408,0.263,0.533
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.464,0.347,0.563
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.116,-0.211,-0.035
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.05,-0.05,0.139
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.041,-0.07,0.142
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.037,0.135
-TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.059,-0.054,0.165
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.029,-0.091,0.135
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.081,-0.023,0.177
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.254,0.151,0.343
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.284,0.181,0.375
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.273,0.178,0.359
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.462,0.33,0.57
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.303,0.205,0.384
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.438,0.285,0.563
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.491,0.367,0.59
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.185,-0.284,-0.098
-Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.067,0.044
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.063,-0.195,0.053
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.558,0.385,0.731,-0.018,-0.054,0.013
+Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.067,0.044
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.596,-0.008,-0.073,0.062
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.062,-0.197,0.052
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.012,-0.065,0.03
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.769,-0.032,-0.143,0.065
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.024,-0.008,0.058
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.207,0.115,0.288
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.239,0.149,0.328
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.228,0.162,0.3
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.429,0.314,0.532
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.024,-0.008,0.056
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.008,-0.137,0.101
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.067,-0.064,0.182
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.053,-0.06,0.152
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.068,-0.023,0.17
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.073,-0.022,0.166
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.192,0.1,0.274
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.26,0.164,0.341
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.404,0.253,0.532
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.46,0.35,0.554
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.171,-0.253,-0.086
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.05,-0.152,0.056
+FlowState,TiRex,0.481,0.308,0.654,-0.006,-0.043,0.028
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.003,-0.04,0.046
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.673,0.004,-0.043,0.067
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.012,-0.031,0.061
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.558,0.385,0.75,-0.019,-0.118,0.069
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.327,0.692,0.035,-0.006,0.084
+FlowState,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.004,-0.109,0.108
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.079,-0.054,0.187
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.065,-0.053,0.17
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.615,0.462,0.808,0.079,-0.013,0.187
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.084,-0.012,0.181
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.202,0.112,0.282
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.269,0.178,0.347
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.149,-0.241,-0.077
-Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.022,-0.072,0.107
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.03,-0.153,0.08
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.365,0.192,0.538,0.013,-0.083,0.107
+Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.022,-0.072,0.107
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.481,0.308,0.673,0.023,-0.072,0.113
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.03,-0.156,0.083
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.404,0.231,0.577,0.031,-0.069,0.125
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.442,0.25,0.615,0.019,-0.074,0.106
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.519,0.327,0.712,0.054,-0.039,0.141
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.231,0.132,0.318
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.262,0.168,0.346
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.251,0.169,0.332
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.446,0.316,0.562
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.519,0.327,0.712,0.054,-0.039,0.14
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.023,-0.095,0.144
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.577,0.346,0.769,0.096,-0.054,0.224
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.082,-0.036,0.188
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.096,-0.017,0.204
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.101,0.012,0.187
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.217,0.12,0.307
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.283,0.183,0.364
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.422,0.278,0.534
-Sundial-Base,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.476,0.35,0.586
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.214,-0.324,-0.122
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.034,-0.089,0.012
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.288,0.115,0.462,-0.043,-0.084,-0.009
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.033,-0.088,0.021
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.088,-0.216,0.022
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.025,-0.061,0.008
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.481,0.288,0.673,-0.057,-0.164,0.038
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.214,-0.323,-0.123
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.088,-0.215,0.022
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.288,0.115,0.462,-0.043,-0.083,-0.009
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.033,-0.088,0.012
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.033,-0.087,0.021
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.024,-0.06,0.008
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.308,0.673,-0.037,-0.092,0.006
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.481,0.288,0.673,-0.057,-0.163,0.038
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.188,0.094,0.273
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.22,0.129,0.309
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.208,0.137,0.284
-Toto-1.0,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.415,0.296,0.517
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.033,-0.162,0.081
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.045,-0.102,0.164
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.031,-0.093,0.134
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.045,-0.045,0.146
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.051,-0.041,0.142
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.172,0.083,0.258
 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.654,0.962,0.242,0.151,0.321
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.389,0.242,0.513
-Toto-1.0,Drift,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.446,0.337,0.542
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.495,-0.692,-0.319
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.192,0.038,0.385,-0.273,-0.416,-0.144
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.284,-0.434,-0.154
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.272,-0.429,-0.139
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.34,-0.522,-0.178
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.261,-0.405,-0.13
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.301,-0.467,-0.152
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.231,-0.376,-0.104
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.176,-0.309,-0.065
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.538,-0.054,-0.153,0.036
+TFT,TiRex,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.01,-0.127,0.096
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.001,-0.113,0.105
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.0,-0.104,0.092
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.008,-0.113,0.12
+TFT,FlowState,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.004,-0.121,0.098
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.023,-0.169,0.087
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.031,-0.088,0.139
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,PatchTST,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.075,-0.01,0.157
+TFT,DeepAR,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.061,-0.017,0.142
+TFT,LightGBM,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.075,-0.048,0.188
+TFT,CatBoost,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.08,-0.062,0.204
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.198,0.093,0.282
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.266,0.174,0.342
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.271,-0.432,-0.126
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.139,-0.252,-0.045
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.092,-0.241,0.051
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.082,-0.222,0.059
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.081,-0.214,0.051
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.072,-0.223,0.06
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.085,-0.231,0.051
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.423,0.231,0.654,-0.106,-0.288,0.051
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.047,-0.196,0.093
+PatchTST,TFT,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.081,-0.187,0.01
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.015,-0.084,0.06
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.0,-0.137,0.131
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.006,-0.154,0.155
+PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.133,0.012,0.248
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.576,0.885,0.207,0.106,0.306
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.252,-0.381,-0.134
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.123,-0.21,-0.042
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.076,-0.203,0.042
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.066,-0.187,0.047
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.065,-0.177,0.047
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.056,-0.179,0.057
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.069,-0.205,0.051
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.09,-0.232,0.035
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.031,-0.155,0.085
+DeepAR,TFT,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.065,-0.166,0.017
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.015,-0.063,0.078
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.015,-0.082,0.12
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.021,-0.093,0.134
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.596,0.423,0.769,0.146,0.036,0.25
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.827,0.692,0.942,0.218,0.128,0.307
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.271,-0.405,-0.166
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.308,0.153,0.462,-0.14,-0.282,-0.037
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.092,-0.23,0.01
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.082,-0.221,0.014
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.081,-0.219,0.017
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.072,-0.205,0.023
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.385,0.192,0.538,-0.086,-0.23,0.013
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.106,-0.256,0.016
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.047,-0.171,0.043
+LightGBM,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.081,-0.232,0.046
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.0,-0.15,0.12
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.015,-0.137,0.075
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.006,-0.055,0.061
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.133,-0.007,0.243
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.615,0.923,0.206,0.082,0.307
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.278,-0.415,-0.177
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.146,-0.306,-0.017
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.098,-0.228,0.003
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.088,-0.222,0.01
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.088,-0.228,0.022
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.079,-0.199,0.022
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.092,-0.221,0.012
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.113,-0.23,-0.012
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.053,-0.166,0.039
+CatBoost,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.087,-0.256,0.059
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.006,-0.184,0.134
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.021,-0.155,0.085
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.006,-0.065,0.052
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.128,-0.008,0.238
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.202,0.07,0.303
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.466,-0.661,-0.303
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.315,-0.496,-0.157
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.26,-0.4,-0.143
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.192,0.038,0.385,-0.249,-0.387,-0.135
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.248,-0.4,-0.121
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.237,-0.377,-0.111
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.253,-0.393,-0.126
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.276,-0.443,-0.136
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.208,-0.348,-0.091
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.247,-0.393,-0.103
+Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.154,-0.33,-0.012
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.404,0.231,0.577,-0.171,-0.333,-0.037
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.154,-0.322,0.007
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.147,-0.313,0.008
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.654,0.481,0.827,0.04,0.008,0.076
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.026,-0.029,0.075
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.28,0.162,0.399
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.067,0.029,0.103
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.248,0.12,0.381
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.318,0.206,0.435
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.558,-0.781,-0.363
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.326,-0.48,-0.19
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.338,-0.509,-0.203
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.325,-0.496,-0.19
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.396,-0.601,-0.222
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.314,-0.489,-0.175
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.356,-0.529,-0.202
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.283,-0.447,-0.148
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.346,0.173,0.519,-0.042,-0.082,-0.008
-AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.015,-0.079,0.04
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.249,0.12,0.379
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.519,0.846,0.027,-0.012,0.062
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.216,0.079,0.35
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.29,0.167,0.413
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.534,-0.718,-0.381
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.306,-0.443,-0.202
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.318,-0.455,-0.218
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.305,-0.452,-0.2
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.375,-0.561,-0.216
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.295,-0.428,-0.193
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.335,-0.496,-0.204
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.263,-0.397,-0.158
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.026,-0.081,0.029
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.015,-0.042,0.073
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.261,0.138,0.381
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.042,-0.02,0.097
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.228,0.087,0.37
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.3,0.184,0.415
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-1.075,-1.586,-0.674
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.767,-1.166,-0.465
-Naive,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.783,-1.198,-0.474
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.766,-1.162,-0.452
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.86,-1.326,-0.492
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.751,-1.137,-0.458
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.807,-1.283,-0.462
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.709,-1.072,-0.42
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.388,-0.664,-0.193
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.332,-0.611,-0.137
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.353,-0.616,-0.16
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.404,0.231,0.558,-0.296,-0.551,-0.107
-Naive,AutoETS,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.045,-0.271,0.122
-Naive,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.053,0.032,0.078
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.558,0.885,0.084,0.037,0.13
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.601,-0.814,-0.393
-Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.511,-0.225
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.436,-0.616,-0.27
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.376,-0.544,-0.225
+Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.511,-0.225
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.513,-0.225
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.435,-0.622,-0.257
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.351,-0.517,-0.196
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.368,-0.532,-0.217
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.394,-0.572,-0.225
 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.346,-0.319,-0.473,-0.178
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.071,-0.115,-0.03
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.308,0.154,0.481,-0.028,-0.066,0.012
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.044,-0.107,0.019
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.596,0.442,0.769,0.228,0.097,0.355
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.362,-0.521,-0.21
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.269,0.115,0.424,-0.26,-0.44,-0.119
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.173,0.058,0.308,-0.279,-0.443,-0.147
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.192,0.077,0.385,-0.26,-0.442,-0.09
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.253,-0.434,-0.075
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.115,0.442,-0.092,-0.149,-0.038
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.194,0.048,0.336
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.692,0.538,0.885,0.27,0.146,0.393
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.987,-1.529,-0.575
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.692,-1.136,-0.369
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.707,-1.173,-0.365
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.69,-1.143,-0.356
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.781,-1.288,-0.399
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.677,-1.137,-0.34
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.729,-1.145,-0.385
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.636,-1.055,-0.318
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.329,-0.614,-0.136
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.275,-0.538,-0.086
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.295,-0.587,-0.095
-AutoETS,Naive,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.043,-0.139,0.213
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.241,-0.505,-0.051
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,Drift,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.094,-0.078,0.255
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.193,-1.748,-0.782
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.867,-1.283,-0.544
-Drift,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.884,-1.313,-0.548
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.866,-1.29,-0.531
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.965,-1.439,-0.579
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.85,-1.241,-0.539
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.909,-1.417,-0.539
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.806,-1.183,-0.509
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.467,-0.771,-0.259
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.408,-0.704,-0.2
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.429,-0.71,-0.225
-Drift,Naive,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.056,-0.085,-0.033
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.308,0.115,0.462,-0.369,-0.648,-0.171
-Drift,AutoETS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.104,-0.342,0.073
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.143,0.076,0.204
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.103,0.043,0.165
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.105,0.046,0.172
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.159,0.086,0.224
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.165,0.099,0.23
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.166,0.098,0.224
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.175,0.108,0.243
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.186,0.119,0.253
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.186,0.119,0.252
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.171,0.091,0.255
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.212,0.16,0.273
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.322,0.47
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.319,0.474
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.565,0.464,0.652
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.248,0.158,0.33
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.241,0.168,0.309
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.318,0.434
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.316,0.461
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.313,0.464
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.384,0.522
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.417,0.553
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.642,0.566,0.711
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.583,0.723
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.166,-0.256,-0.083
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.047,-0.16,0.056
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.043,-0.153,0.057
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.02,-0.015,0.053
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.712,0.538,0.865,0.026,-0.018,0.077
+TiRex,FlowState,0.596,0.404,0.769,0.027,-0.013,0.066
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.577,0.904,0.038,0.007,0.071
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.827,0.673,0.962,0.051,0.023,0.082
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.788,0.635,0.942,0.05,0.022,0.081
+TiRex,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.033,-0.083,0.135
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.635,0.923,0.082,-0.005,0.162
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.302,0.222,0.379
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.302,0.222,0.38
-TiRex,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.493,0.379,0.594
+TiRex,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.123,-0.007,0.223
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.115,0.006,0.208
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.269,0.192,0.351
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.292,0.22,0.369
+TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.293,0.215,0.367
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.299,0.439
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.33,0.472
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.496,0.662
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.6,0.519,0.674
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.114,-0.198,-0.045
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.045,-0.06,0.138
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.118,-0.207,-0.048
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.042,-0.06,0.132
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.063,-0.03,0.15
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.069,-0.012,0.148
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.081,-0.022,0.18
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.093,-0.007,0.189
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.123,0.016,0.219
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.333,0.245,0.415
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.333,0.24,0.418
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.516,0.398,0.612
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.321,0.473
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.336,0.513
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.601,0.507,0.685
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.618,0.526,0.695
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.061,-0.032,0.147
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.066,-0.013,0.144
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.068,-0.037,0.15
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.078,-0.027,0.177
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.09,-0.012,0.186
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.615,0.462,0.808,0.073,-0.017,0.157
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.12,0.014,0.215
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.16,0.077,0.241
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.152,0.078,0.221
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.3,0.226,0.38
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.322,0.232,0.407
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.322,0.231,0.409
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.322,0.469
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.19,-0.289,-0.094
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.02,-0.056,0.015
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.068,-0.177,0.029
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.064,-0.172,0.031
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.006,-0.031,0.046
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.008,-0.042,0.052
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.018,-0.038,0.072
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.032,-0.016,0.081
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.031,-0.017,0.08
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.014,-0.101,0.121
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.063,-0.029,0.147
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.288,0.209,0.366
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.212,0.365
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.483,0.376,0.581
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.105,-0.029,0.21
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.097,-0.015,0.186
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.255,0.176,0.34
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.278,0.204,0.356
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.206,0.354
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.288,0.423
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.31,0.47
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.483,0.657
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.507,0.67
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.197,-0.299,-0.11
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.288,0.135,0.462,-0.027,-0.084,0.018
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.074,-0.174,0.012
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.071,-0.168,0.013
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.006,-0.048,0.03
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.326,0.674,0.002,-0.072,0.05
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.308,0.635,0.012,-0.062,0.076
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.026,-0.03,0.079
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.442,0.769,0.025,-0.03,0.078
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.007,-0.099,0.108
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.057,-0.039,0.142
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.283,0.207,0.358
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.284,0.204,0.362
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.48,0.368,0.58
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.1,-0.031,0.201
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.092,-0.024,0.18
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.25,0.171,0.336
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.274,0.199,0.348
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.274,0.199,0.354
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.287,0.417
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.384,0.307,0.466
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.485,0.651
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.506,0.663
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.199,-0.288,-0.109
+FlowState,TiRex,0.404,0.231,0.596,-0.028,-0.071,0.013
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.073,-0.177,0.036
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.008,-0.055,0.04
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.326,0.674,-0.002,-0.052,0.067
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.011,-0.039,0.061
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.023,-0.024,0.072
+FlowState,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.006,-0.108,0.111
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.056,-0.036,0.14
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.098,-0.033,0.201
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.654,0.5,0.808,0.09,-0.021,0.192
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.846,0.731,0.962,0.249,0.172,0.34
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.272,0.194,0.35
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.273,0.193,0.353
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.352,0.275,0.427
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.212,-0.32,-0.122
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.096,0.423,-0.039,-0.077,-0.007
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.088,-0.219,0.022
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.084,-0.216,0.026
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.019,-0.077,0.037
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.692,-0.012,-0.082,0.058
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.011,-0.066,0.037
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.014,-0.016,0.046
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.013,-0.016,0.045
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.005,-0.135,0.104
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.654,0.923,0.045,-0.054,0.134
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.274,0.181,0.36
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.275,0.183,0.363
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.473,0.354,0.58
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.089,-0.033,0.194
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.08,-0.029,0.172
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.241,0.166,0.326
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.264,0.177,0.349
+Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.265,0.176,0.35
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.345,0.266,0.421
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.376,0.293,0.457
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.566,0.482,0.648
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.502,0.661
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.229,-0.339,-0.136
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.173,0.038,0.327,-0.054,-0.089,-0.024
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.103,-0.233,0.007
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.033,-0.088,0.016
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.026,-0.086,0.029
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.014,-0.048,0.016
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.228,-0.337,-0.135
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.212,0.058,0.365,-0.053,-0.088,-0.023
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.099,-0.228,0.012
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.032,-0.087,0.017
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.231,0.558,-0.026,-0.085,0.029
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.024,-0.078,0.023
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.013,-0.047,0.016
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.712,0.557,0.865,0.032,-0.064,0.118
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.264,0.176,0.347
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.265,0.173,0.351
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.466,0.343,0.573
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.336,0.258,0.412
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.367,0.282,0.45
-Toto-1.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.56,0.475,0.64
-Toto-1.0,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.578,0.497,0.654
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.018,-0.153,0.095
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.712,0.557,0.865,0.033,-0.063,0.118
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.077,-0.07,0.195
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.068,-0.058,0.164
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.231,0.157,0.313
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.255,0.167,0.337
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.255,0.168,0.34
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.337,0.259,0.412
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.206,-0.343,-0.101
+TFT,TiRex,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.034,-0.156,0.076
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.538,-0.079,-0.186,0.017
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.014,-0.138,0.092
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.008,-0.122,0.09
+TFT,FlowState,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.006,-0.125,0.097
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.005,-0.116,0.119
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.018,-0.106,0.133
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.05,-0.088,0.161
+TFT,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.093,0.014,0.17
+TFT,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.085,-0.006,0.172
+TFT,LightGBM,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.244,0.14,0.339
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.268,0.164,0.356
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.268,0.156,0.363
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.349,0.256,0.43
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.27,-0.375,-0.19
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.365,-0.089,-0.193,0.005
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.14,-0.281,-0.016
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.136,-0.274,-0.015
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.067,-0.172,0.029
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.061,-0.166,0.037
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.059,-0.163,0.035
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.212,0.077,0.346,-0.048,-0.154,0.052
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.288,0.135,0.443,-0.033,-0.133,0.06
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.288,0.135,0.443,-0.034,-0.134,0.059
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.053,-0.193,0.081
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.24,0.14,0.328
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.24,0.142,0.324
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.448,0.328,0.539
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.462,0.269,0.615,0.045,-0.112,0.174
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.036,-0.09,0.144
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.204,0.101,0.303
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.229,0.136,0.314
+Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.23,0.14,0.313
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.314,0.227,0.393
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.346,0.251,0.424
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.546,0.446,0.638
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.467,0.653
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.67,-0.887,-0.475
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.432,-0.61,-0.286
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.499,-0.711,-0.324
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.404,-0.576,-0.265
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.395,-0.558,-0.261
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.378,-0.563,-0.221
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.359,-0.531,-0.214
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.315,-0.489,-0.162
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.33,-0.493,-0.187
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.14,-0.287,0.007
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.19,-0.317,-0.084
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.118,-0.267,0.028
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.111,-0.252,0.03
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.109,-0.251,0.032
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.097,-0.241,0.032
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.083,-0.243,0.066
+PatchTST,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.103,-0.205,-0.014
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.538,0.385,0.731,-0.047,-0.211,0.101
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.009,-0.094,0.076
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.167,0.045,0.276
+PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.193,0.071,0.314
+PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.692,0.538,0.885,0.193,0.062,0.32
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.282,0.177,0.386
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.318,-0.448,-0.201
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.13,-0.262,-0.006
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.179,-0.284,-0.085
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.108,-0.228,0.015
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.101,-0.219,0.023
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.346,0.192,0.5,-0.099,-0.237,0.021
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.087,-0.208,0.028
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.073,-0.196,0.054
+DeepAR,TFT,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.093,-0.208,0.006
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.038,-0.168,0.082
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.009,-0.082,0.086
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.174,0.092,0.267
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.635,0.461,0.827,0.2,0.09,0.31
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.596,0.404,0.769,0.201,0.084,0.315
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.827,0.692,0.942,0.288,0.189,0.384
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.767,-0.466
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.369,-0.541,-0.237
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.428,-0.612,-0.293
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.342,-0.516,-0.213
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.333,-0.505,-0.207
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.154,0.038,0.269,-0.331,-0.516,-0.208
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.317,-0.484,-0.199
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.3,-0.456,-0.186
+LightGBM,TFT,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.323,-0.514,-0.162
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.257,-0.435,-0.112
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.2,-0.381,-0.047
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.211,-0.363,-0.101
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.031,-0.135,0.165
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.032,-0.137,0.173
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.138,-0.001,0.25
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.648,-0.856,-0.462
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.413,-0.584,-0.282
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.474,-0.686,-0.302
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.385,-0.552,-0.256
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.377,-0.535,-0.249
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.374,-0.538,-0.241
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.36,-0.537,-0.214
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.342,-0.507,-0.201
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.366,-0.553,-0.197
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.298,-0.457,-0.157
+Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.239,-0.458,-0.077
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.365,0.173,0.539,-0.25,-0.45,-0.099
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.033,-0.197,0.119
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.001,-0.03,0.03
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.274,0.156,0.394
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.673,0.923,0.098,0.062,0.134
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.14,0.054,0.228
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.403,0.302,0.5
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.427,0.332,0.521
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.672,-0.901,-0.469
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.433,-0.614,-0.285
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.5,-0.719,-0.316
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.574,-0.269
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.396,-0.568,-0.256
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.379,-0.569,-0.224
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.36,-0.54,-0.209
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.316,-0.48,-0.166
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.001,-0.031,0.029
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.327,0.692,0.001,-0.03,0.029
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.942,0.11,0.065,0.15
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.867,-0.455
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.414,-0.58,-0.274
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.475,-0.693,-0.301
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.386,-0.548,-0.259
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.377,-0.548,-0.248
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.375,-0.547,-0.239
+AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.36,-0.538,-0.214
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.343,-0.514,-0.202
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.367,-0.569,-0.185
+AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.298,-0.456,-0.163
+AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.308,0.115,0.462,-0.24,-0.47,-0.066
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.404,0.231,0.596,-0.251,-0.46,-0.092
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.033,-0.209,0.12
+AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.308,0.673,-0.001,-0.03,0.029
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.273,0.152,0.393
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.712,0.962,0.097,0.065,0.133
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.139,0.048,0.225
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.402,0.299,0.502
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.427,0.331,0.523
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.301,-1.876,-0.865
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.973,-1.463,-0.611
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.065,-1.575,-0.661
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.934,-1.389,-0.604
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.922,-1.378,-0.581
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.898,-1.383,-0.547
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.873,-1.342,-0.522
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.812,-1.168,-0.489
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.378,-0.651,-0.185
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.376,-0.647,-0.18
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.243,-0.498,-0.059
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.185,-0.496,0.024
-AutoETS,Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.177,-0.005,0.343
-AutoETS,Drift,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.211,0.031,0.372
+AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.769,0.981,0.11,0.072,0.147
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.852,-1.093,-0.622
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.782,-0.427
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.662,-0.896,-0.473
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.882,-0.476
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.734,-0.404
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.547,-0.716,-0.403
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.544,-0.745,-0.38
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.528,-0.727,-0.362
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.507,-0.7,-0.348
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.508,-0.7,-0.35
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.535,-0.756,-0.344
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.458,-0.646,-0.293
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.077,0.327,-0.109,-0.155,-0.066
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.154,0.038,0.288,-0.108,-0.153,-0.069
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.195,0.055,0.332
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.392,-0.628,-0.215
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.173,0.058,0.308,-0.405,-0.624,-0.234
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.16,-0.333,0.001
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.058,0.346,-0.124,-0.176,-0.069
+Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.019,0.231,-0.123,-0.173,-0.077
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.047,-0.058,0.151
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.596,0.885,0.338,0.225,0.448
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.365,0.257,0.469
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.942,-1.236,-0.714
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-0.895,-0.491
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.743,-1.051,-0.506
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.633,-0.887,-0.449
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.622,-0.874,-0.442
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.602,-0.84,-0.415
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.581,-0.819,-0.392
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.53,-0.735,-0.335
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.163,-0.296,-0.057
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.162,-0.29,-0.05
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.156,-0.025,0.332
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.049,-0.178,0.054
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.305,0.169,0.434
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.334,0.2,0.458
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.796,-2.464,-1.302
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.397,-1.954,-0.985
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.509,-2.175,-1.028
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.35,-1.917,-0.935
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.335,-1.866,-0.941
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.306,-1.84,-0.93
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.275,-1.776,-0.904
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.201,-1.761,-0.804
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.674,-1.0,-0.432
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.672,-1.007,-0.426
-Naive,AutoETS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.215,-0.523,0.005
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.115,0.404,-0.51,-0.811,-0.291
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.439,-0.768,-0.203
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.041,0.026,0.058
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.915,-2.609,-1.396
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.5,-2.068,-1.08
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.616,-2.276,-1.108
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.45,-2.03,-1.028
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.435,-1.97,-1.024
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-1.953,-1.008
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.372,-1.889,-0.986
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.296,-1.882,-0.876
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.746,-1.089,-0.497
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.744,-1.097,-0.495
-Drift,AutoETS,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.267,-0.592,-0.032
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.574,-0.885,-0.347
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.501,-0.843,-0.25
-Drift,Naive,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.043,-0.062,-0.027
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,74.99999999999999,31.785976470244737,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,74.99999999999999,32.87474900010455,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,70.0,32.475887751126365,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,68.57142857142857,30.065972963196263,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,65.35714285714286,33.79488514595498,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0
-Toto-1.0,60.71428571428571,31.61987589396246,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,56.785714285714285,30.041136141125392,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,50.71428571428572,29.22957519821191,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,49.28571428571429,28.071655389223615,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,48.57142857142857,22.707876070444478,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,36.42857142857142,5.881738788340107,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,30.71428571428571,15.209167110886634,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,21.78571428571429,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0
-Naive,21.071428571428573,0.30982946320681215,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0
-Drift,20.0,7.491051478030797,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,75.5,32.87474894024488,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,73.0,31.78597649489514,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,70.5,32.47588770643868,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,70.0,34.55373879766452,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,68.5,27.93729353213241,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,66.75000000000001,33.79488506711863,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0
+LightGBM,63.0,33.38915880315173,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,61.999999999999986,33.16623383500657,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,60.750000000000014,30.041136052707273,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,60.00000000000001,31.700573837170467,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,53.0,29.22979017092695,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,52.000000000000014,22.70787609837541,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,52.0,28.071655328734924,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,39.0,5.881738752268506,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0
+TFT,34.0,8.056299346355855,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,31.999999999999996,15.20916710141943,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,27.999999999999993,12.927869318522445,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,26.5,8.848833829469338,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,22.249999999999996,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0
+Naive,20.749999999999996,0.30982947391161586,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0
+Drift,20.5,7.491051482058886,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,81.42857142857143,38.088755291215016,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,76.42857142857142,38.03594076932182,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,70.71428571428572,36.908809578202614,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,69.64285714285714,38.69101656633476,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0
-Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,37.84147796075432,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,65.71428571428571,35.21500006276798,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,61.07142857142858,36.49963485983284,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,52.85714285714287,31.12404362920507,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,49.285714285714285,31.66665055693333,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,38.57142857142858,23.555776015856367,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,37.857142857142854,8.155432249884543,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,26.42857142857143,17.733419423817608,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,21.071428571428573,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0
-Naive,17.5,-7.297793633399574,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0
-Drift,15.0,0.4041900778196994,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,83.0,38.08875531260849,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,79.5,38.03594071146331,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,75.75,38.69101646514035,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0
+TiRex,72.5,36.908809542631595,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,72.5,37.79500412291329,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,69.25000000000001,36.49963478571547,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,67.5,37.78506660666954,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,63.000000000000014,32.77403706037661,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,56.50000000000001,31.12404358258436,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,52.500000000000014,31.666899122864876,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,46.00000000000001,24.996902028028057,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,43.0,24.745890887412404,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,41.99999999999999,23.555776042271713,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,40.0,8.15543220497067,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0
+TFT,38.49999999999999,13.487049535026774,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,32.99999999999999,17.70708962424181,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,32.0,17.733419411019135,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,27.0,13.730380882991922,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,21.749999999999996,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0
+Naive,17.75,-7.297793646802875,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0
+Drift,17.0,0.404190086867684,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-TimesFM-2.5,72.14285714285714,30.23643324970241,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,67.14285714285715,29.759653338440085,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,67.14285714285714,29.12048426647892,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,66.07142857142858,31.59592125809332,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0
-Toto-1.0,64.2857142857143,28.503622669499972,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,57.85714285714286,29.695571630620133,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,57.85714285714286,22.16773042840192,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,57.50000000000001,25.88326333574207,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,57.14285714285714,29.452418664318316,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,47.14285714285714,16.462367071514482,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,35.0,15.909991992310612,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,30.0,14.265515884511814,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0
-Naive,24.642857142857146,0.09410339815076885,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,23.92857142857143,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0
-Drift,22.142857142857146,6.9951032330727525,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,75.0,30.236433011588616,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,69.0,29.759653720585042,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,69.0,29.12048347898083,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,68.5,25.714346434991153,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,67.75,31.595921669939887,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0
+Toto-1.0,62.0,28.753205083598854,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,62.0,29.45241897965094,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,61.5,29.1761523445201,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,61.5,29.6956210738891,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,58.75,25.883263022341175,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,56.49999999999999,28.23998648969035,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,49.500000000000014,16.462366143379946,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,46.5,24.80079887494443,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,41.0,15.90999185953288,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,34.0,14.265515876146328,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,31.999999999999996,4.835755105983619,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0
+Naive,27.749999999999993,0.09410405602899852,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0
+Drift,27.500000000000004,6.995102476216641,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,27.24999999999999,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0
+TFT,26.999999999999996,-0.6246028567987283,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,25.999999999999996,2.754946880183251,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571428,40.552489915488046,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,73.57142857142857,40.42137769720644,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,71.78571428571428,41.64215769175597,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0
-TiRex,67.85714285714286,38.88592211612176,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,40.23878103293733,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,61.78571428571429,38.083893012167536,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,57.85714285714286,34.096239445747244,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,57.857142857142854,33.50700504489347,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,52.85714285714286,32.19312845196244,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,41.42857142857143,19.92503103258492,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,39.28571428571429,24.248203686038707,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,29.999999999999993,18.14389549105302,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,21.071428571428577,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0
-Drift,18.571428571428577,0.8421348585152089,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0
-Naive,17.5,-6.552998309491742,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,78.49999999999999,40.552489916172874,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,78.0,40.421377709866235,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,77.25000000000001,41.64215770095807,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0
+TiRex,71.0,38.88592212674449,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,66.75,38.083893021927985,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,66.5,40.320844847410996,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,65.5,36.31335951896396,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,64.50000000000001,38.14282869293443,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,60.00000000000001,33.50707751988894,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,59.00000000000001,32.19312847125849,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,43.50000000000001,19.925031039747566,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,41.99999999999999,24.248203702135108,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,41.49999999999999,25.255259089696292,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,36.5,15.68929320376099,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,35.50000000000001,21.67302472205549,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,35.0,18.143895495008643,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,32.5,15.548311275264371,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0
+TFT,29.999999999999993,6.246826522995086,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,24.25,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0
+Drift,21.5,0.8421348846480603,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0
+Naive,20.749999999999996,-6.552998310854519,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
-Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.124,0.085
-Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.01,-0.052,0.023
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.082,0.154
-Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.03,-0.114,0.028
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.002,-0.046,0.041
-Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.04,0.08
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.036,-0.098,0.168
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.052,-0.07,0.182
-Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.117,-0.048,0.245
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.275,0.078,0.425
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.196,0.073,0.308
-Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.318,0.17,0.455
-Chronos-2,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.185,0.434
-Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.263,0.17,0.344
-TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.093,0.11
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.093,0.11
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.088,0.075
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.118,0.212
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.069,-0.018,0.168
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.026,-0.178,0.069
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.014,-0.094,0.036
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.018,-0.087,0.112
-TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.041,-0.026,0.112
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.151,0.132
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.004,-0.149,0.123
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.017,-0.09,0.111
 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.052,-0.167,0.215
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.067,-0.126,0.221
+TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.041,-0.026,0.112
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.132,0.016,0.262
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.287,0.092,0.44
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.208,0.083,0.346
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.27,0.092,0.435
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.204,0.472
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.222,0.447
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.274,0.174,0.382
-TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.01,-0.024,0.049
+Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.124,0.085
+Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.01,-0.052,0.023
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.053,-0.056,0.143
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.042,-0.101,0.001
+Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.03,-0.114,0.028
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.024,-0.166,0.118
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.154,0.112
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.048,0.039
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.036,-0.098,0.168
+Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.052,-0.07,0.182
+Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.04,0.08
+Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.117,-0.048,0.245
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.275,0.078,0.425
+Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.071,0.437
+Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.318,0.17,0.455
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.081,0.081
+TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.01,-0.024,0.049
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.063,0.166
+TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.026,0.146
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.032,-0.085,0.006
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.02,-0.063,0.015
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.041,0.064
-TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.013,0.085
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.129,0.119
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.12,0.112
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.011,-0.041,0.062
 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,-0.108,0.181
 TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.066,0.191
+TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.013,0.085
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.126,-0.013,0.252
 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.283,0.074,0.447
-TiRex,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.083,0.322
+TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.266,0.076,0.443
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.184,0.464
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.206,0.44
-TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.27,0.185,0.358
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.182,0.076
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.269,0.106
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.199,0.059
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.074,-0.201,0.018
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.056,-0.167,0.053
+FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.171,0.025
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.239,0.014
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.088,-0.212,0.013
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.082,-0.303,0.107
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.078,-0.28,0.101
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.055,-0.212,0.078
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.018,-0.264,0.186
+FlowState,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.002,-0.238,0.201
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.03,-0.119,0.052
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.068,-0.006,0.133
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.234,-0.021,0.43
+FlowState,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.216,0.059,0.362
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.279,0.18,0.379
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.025,-0.074,0.151
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.041,-0.001,0.091
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.031,-0.006,0.079
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.014,0.193
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.056,-0.246,0.044
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.023,-0.229,0.1
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.0,-0.134,0.098
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.012,-0.177,0.177
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.028,-0.177,0.192
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.095,-0.01,0.208
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.257,-0.028,0.458
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.083,0.263
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.198,0.415
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.214,0.407
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.18,0.308
-Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.029,-0.029,0.102
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.055,0.076
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.017,-0.098,0.134
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.021,-0.082,0.123
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.042,-0.023,0.102
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.075,-0.039,0.191
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.019,0.206
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.002,0.145
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.153,-0.001,0.292
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.305,0.079,0.471
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.288,0.088,0.478
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.194,0.48
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.037,0.086
+Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.029,-0.029,0.102
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.02,-0.015,0.059
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.053,-0.046,0.197
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.081,-0.013,0.175
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.082,0.052
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.032,-0.035,0.104
-Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.054,0.003,0.111
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.006,-0.097,0.128
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.086,0.121
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.031,-0.034,0.103
 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.09,0.204
 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.08,-0.053,0.206
+Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.054,0.003,0.111
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.143,0.011,0.27
 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.297,0.077,0.458
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.219,0.09,0.349
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.28,0.082,0.456
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.203,0.482
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.218,0.457
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.284,0.196,0.383
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.002,-0.043,0.044
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.019,-0.126,0.08
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.013,-0.068,0.039
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.022,-0.111,0.187
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.033,-0.116,0.033
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.152,0.131
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.024,-0.134,0.142
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.136,0.114
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.076,-0.119,0.233
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.018,-0.155,0.089
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.006,-0.147,0.089
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.02,0.028
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.025,-0.107,0.126
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.132,0.216
+LightGBM,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.074,-0.097,0.22
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.118,0.168
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.138,-0.086,0.314
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.292,0.018,0.468
+LightGBM,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.276,0.001,0.488
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.334,0.122,0.504
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.004,-0.14,0.129
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.127,0.134
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.01,-0.126,0.107
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.073,-0.112,0.218
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.14,0.076
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.137,0.079
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.029,0.019
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.021,-0.101,0.119
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.056,-0.114,0.205
+CatBoost,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.071,-0.088,0.211
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.045,-0.115,0.157
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.135,-0.079,0.306
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.29,0.021,0.474
+CatBoost,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.015,0.482
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.332,0.125,0.498
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.017,-0.125,0.082
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.041,0.045
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.011,-0.066,0.039
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.052,-0.085,0.175
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.044,-0.113,0.022
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.032,-0.115,0.033
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.025,-0.145,0.096
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.135,0.092
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.023,-0.058,0.095
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.097,0.147
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.049,-0.059,0.159
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.115,-0.073,0.269
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.084,0.416
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.194,0.057,0.332
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.149,0.472
-Toto-1.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.314,0.165,0.452
-Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.261,0.159,0.368
-Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.087,0.038
-Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.127,0.025
-Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.092,0.013
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.0,-0.108,0.118
-Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.057,-0.125,-0.003
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.023,-0.104,0.055
-Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.011,-0.158,0.153
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.124,0.167
-Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.095,-0.022,0.198
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.257,0.058,0.42
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.078,0.273
-Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.183,0.423
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.2,0.397
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.181,0.314
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.037,-0.202,0.089
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.035,-0.091,0.147
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.05,-0.056,0.159
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.024,-0.058,0.096
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.116,-0.071,0.268
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.274,0.083,0.418
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.257,0.054,0.451
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.317,0.15,0.473
 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.054,-0.274,0.143
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.037,-0.202,0.089
 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.222,0.098
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.215,0.151
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.018,-0.228,0.209
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.081,-0.236,0.037
 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.256,0.083
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.035,-0.173,0.089
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.181,0.137
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.062,-0.275,0.117
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.059,-0.258,0.103
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.172,0.083
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.021,0.046
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.181,0.137
 Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.19,0.289
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.248,0.049,0.443
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.165,-0.004,0.322
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.23,-0.021,0.457
 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.292,0.066,0.47
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.29,0.09,0.457
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.235,0.093,0.356
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.222,0.065
 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.072,-0.284,0.112
+AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.222,0.065
 AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.236,0.062
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.029,-0.238,0.15
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.002,-0.251,0.192
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.099,-0.259,0.018
 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.26,0.051
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.052,-0.188,0.055
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.2,0.11
+AutoETS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.08,-0.282,0.088
+AutoETS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.076,-0.267,0.08
+AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.053,-0.189,0.053
 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.048,0.02
 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.2,0.11
 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.069,-0.2,0.272
 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.236,0.04,0.428
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.152,-0.014,0.31
+AutoETS,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.218,-0.031,0.436
 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.281,0.048,0.466
-AutoETS,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.278,0.077,0.448
-AutoETS,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.222,0.081,0.353
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.133,-0.325,0.046
+Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.127,0.025
+Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.087,0.038
+Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.092,0.013
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.029,-0.055,0.107
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.169,0.002
+Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.057,-0.125,-0.003
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.05,-0.201,0.106
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.047,-0.186,0.103
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.024,-0.106,0.054
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.011,-0.158,0.153
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.124,0.167
+Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.095,-0.022,0.198
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.257,0.058,0.42
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.239,0.078,0.39
+Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.183,0.423
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.151,-0.355,-0.017
+Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.133,-0.325,0.046
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.145,-0.337,0.012
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.105,-0.262,0.01
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.073,-0.154,0.006
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.181,-0.413,0.001
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.167,-0.37,-0.011
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.13,-0.368,0.068
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.105,-0.246,0.021
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.16,-0.459,0.079
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.156,-0.441,0.073
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.132,-0.366,0.066
 Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.406,0.159
 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.075,-0.373,0.167
+Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.105,-0.246,0.021
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.179,-0.134,0.405
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.088,-0.017,0.19
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.159,0.014,0.284
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.227,0.146,0.302
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.225,0.152,0.28
-Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.164,0.052,0.258
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.38,-0.738,-0.085
 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.402,-0.787,-0.101
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.38,-0.738,-0.085
 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.394,-0.807,-0.08
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.346,-0.845,0.027
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.306,-0.754,0.021
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.438,-0.89,-0.086
 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.422,-0.846,-0.083
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.711,-0.092
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.345,-0.725,-0.062
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.413,-0.88,-0.018
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.408,-0.902,-0.021
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.378,-0.718,-0.091
 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.33,-0.795,-0.052
 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.309,-0.748,-0.041
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.345,-0.725,-0.062
 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.218,-0.682,0.118
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.11,-0.447,0.155
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.024,-0.336,0.22
 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.309,0.333
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.056,-0.275,0.304
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.017,-0.354,0.225
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.243,-0.445,-0.079
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.263,-0.53,-0.09
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.476,-0.09
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.356,-0.09
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.281,-0.536,-0.099
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.24,-0.497,-0.061
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.375,-0.084
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.198,-0.474,0.004
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.179,-0.449,0.013
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.234,0.017
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.099,-0.183,0.309
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.152,0.05,0.24
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.149,0.067,0.222
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.083,0.013,0.166
-Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.466,-0.835,-0.204
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.37,-0.769,-0.101
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.775,-0.077
+TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.362,-0.797,-0.083
+TFT,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.276,-0.567,-0.062
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.405,-0.916,-0.096
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.389,-0.837,-0.089
+TFT,LightGBM,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-0.953,-0.001
+TFT,CatBoost,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.929,-0.015
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.346,-0.821,-0.057
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.299,-0.842,0.02
+TFT,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.278,-0.773,0.03
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.314,-0.64,-0.085
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.19,-0.396,-0.014
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.023,-0.283,0.251
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.081,-0.027,0.177
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.893,-0.257
+Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.466,-0.835,-0.204
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.865,-0.226
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.711,-0.247
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.388,-0.61,-0.22
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.922,-0.241
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.93,-0.255
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.462,-0.893,-0.175
-Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.732,-0.224
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.501,-1.017,-0.14
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.496,-0.991,-0.143
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.464,-0.899,-0.177
 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.413,-0.885,-0.07
 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.39,-0.872,-0.051
+Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.732,-0.224
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.294,-0.433,-0.171
 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.062,-0.499,0.236
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.179,-0.315,-0.052
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.088,-0.216,0.026
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.056,0.041
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.23,0.043
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.461,-0.766,-0.226
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.807,-0.286
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.787,-0.259
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.686,-0.272
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.843,-0.278
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.458,-0.823,-0.197
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.659,-0.25
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.409,-0.84,-0.099
-Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.386,-0.812,-0.084
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.29,-0.39,-0.179
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.059,-0.436,0.215
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.176,-0.286,-0.072
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.043,0.053
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.078,-0.197,0.018
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.356,-0.526,-0.205
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.378,-0.618,-0.21
-Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.37,-0.559,-0.227
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.445,-0.22
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.397,-0.621,-0.244
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.353,-0.582,-0.189
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.458,-0.22
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.307,-0.552,-0.103
-Drift,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.286,-0.545,-0.088
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.197,-0.348,-0.055
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.017,-0.29,0.262
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.091,-0.199,-0.013
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.045,0.187
-Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.072,-0.018,0.164
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.091,0.094
-Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.019,-0.022,0.054
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.01,-0.086,0.045
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.004,-0.055,0.051
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.044,-0.04,0.15
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.005,-0.032,0.03
+Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.019,-0.022,0.054
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.035,0.08
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.005,-0.053,0.052
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,-0.021,0.16
 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.101,-0.023,0.231
 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.094,-0.039,0.227
-Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.19,0.034,0.308
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.175,0.055,0.3
 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.326,0.106,0.481
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.112,0.362
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.177,0.066,0.294
+Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.19,0.034,0.308
+Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.095,0.462
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.504
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.295,0.531
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.281,0.47
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.104,0.084
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.018,-0.05,0.072
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.011,-0.085,0.035
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.106,0.103
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.044,-0.078,0.182
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.096,0.075
+TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.018,-0.05,0.072
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.032,0.08
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.105,0.104
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.078,0.001,0.158
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.1,-0.086,0.252
 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.093,-0.113,0.257
-TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.189,0.085,0.301
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.174,0.054,0.302
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.325,0.109,0.484
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.117,0.377
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.177,0.057,0.294
+TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.189,0.085,0.301
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.284,0.108,0.444
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.264,0.511
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.325,0.529
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.277,0.474
-TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.019,-0.057,0.021
-TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.018,-0.077,0.048
-TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.073,0.009
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.015,-0.083,0.043
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.057,0.142
-TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.035,0.045
-TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.051,0.223
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.077,-0.082,0.222
-TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.175,0.044,0.286
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.313,0.094,0.48
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.103,0.354
-TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.24,0.497
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.3,0.518
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.268,0.464
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.01,-0.047,0.079
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.011,-0.036,0.078
-Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.068
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.052,0.084
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.054,-0.037,0.187
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.035,0.072
+Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.068
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.35,0.9,0.035,-0.011,0.083
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.052,0.084
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.088,-0.002,0.175
 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.11,-0.022,0.239
 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.103,-0.055,0.246
-Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.198,0.072,0.318
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.183,0.084,0.299
 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.332,0.099,0.498
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.121,0.388
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.185,0.091,0.295
+Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.198,0.072,0.318
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.291,0.086,0.467
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.253,0.522
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.316,0.541
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.384,0.286,0.486
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.004,-0.053,0.052
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.115,0.096
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.015,-0.045,0.076
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.091,0.05
-Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.041,-0.072,0.187
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.059,0.092
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.098,-0.011,0.205
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.032,0.205
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.187,0.002,0.333
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.323,0.113,0.478
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.09,0.388
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.213,0.526
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.279,0.544
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.265,0.49
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.046,-0.176,0.038
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.046,-0.222,0.072
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.165,0.054
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.057,-0.23,0.036
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.042,-0.23,0.067
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.005,-0.031,0.031
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.081,0.087
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.015,-0.077,0.034
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.02,-0.148,0.057
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.119,0.221
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.052,-0.127,0.215
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.153,0.046,0.252
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.295,0.03,0.49
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.116,0.292
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.249,0.449
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.308,0.49
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.271,0.429
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.023,0.052
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.02,-0.025,0.07
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.0,-0.071,0.059
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,-0.015,0.159
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.097,-0.022,0.22
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.09,-0.039,0.217
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.171,0.063,0.29
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.323,0.093,0.492
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.173,0.077,0.285
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.186,0.052,0.297
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.281,0.095,0.454
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.247,0.498
+TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.019,-0.057,0.021
+TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.018,-0.077,0.048
+TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.073,0.009
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.055,0.023
+TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.035,0.045
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.014,-0.082,0.044
+TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.062,-0.016,0.132
+TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.051,0.223
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.077,-0.082,0.222
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.159,0.041,0.292
+TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.313,0.094,0.48
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.162,0.05,0.286
+TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.175,0.044,0.286
+TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.271,0.083,0.442
+TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.24,0.497
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.086,0.033
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.087,0.031
-Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.048,0.033
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.1,0.65,-0.036,-0.091,0.01
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.101,0.055
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.02,-0.061,0.129
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.021,-0.075,0.024
+Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.048,0.033
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.1,0.057
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.055,-0.03,0.134
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.078,-0.063,0.207
 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.071,-0.088,0.209
-Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.169,0.052,0.27
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.153,0.032,0.287
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.309,0.096,0.471
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.114,0.336
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.156,0.036,0.284
+Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.169,0.052,0.27
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.266,0.092,0.423
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.247,0.481
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.306,0.509
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.279,0.456
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.005,-0.054,0.05
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.116,0.095
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.092,0.049
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.0,-0.063,0.066
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.014,-0.046,0.076
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.06,0.091
+Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.06,0.197
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.097,-0.011,0.203
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.032,0.203
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.171,0.07,0.277
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.323,0.112,0.478
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.173,0.076,0.273
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.186,0.0,0.333
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.281,0.068,0.478
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.214,0.526
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.191,0.02
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.085,-0.187,-0.001
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.213,0.002
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.081,-0.189,0.015
+FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.066,-0.152,0.016
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.059,-0.154,0.03
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.245,0.057
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.024,-0.199,0.224
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.016,-0.228,0.22
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.104,-0.092,0.273
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.268,0.006,0.467
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.107,-0.072,0.263
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.121,0.039,0.189
+FlowState,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.223,0.049,0.377
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.22,0.435
 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.112,-0.3,0.023
 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.112,-0.337,0.079
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.288,0.049
 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.123,-0.313,0.022
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.108,-0.257,0.011
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.284,0.107
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.107,-0.282,0.021
+AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.288,0.049
 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.085,-0.262,0.059
+AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.107,-0.254,0.011
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.025,-0.289,0.166
 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.047,0.04
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.099,-0.174,0.293
+AutoETS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.082,-0.113,0.254
 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.25,0.032,0.456
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.163,-0.008,0.327
+AutoETS,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.085,-0.101,0.243
+AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.099,-0.174,0.293
+AutoETS,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.204,-0.057,0.436
 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.311,0.076,0.492
-AutoETS,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.358,0.144,0.517
-AutoETS,Drift,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.308,0.137,0.456
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.104,-0.293,0.038
 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.103,-0.346,0.101
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.083,-0.285,0.076
 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.115,-0.326,0.052
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.099,-0.258,0.031
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.055,-0.273,0.112
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.099,-0.278,0.037
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.083,-0.285,0.076
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.076,-0.264,0.081
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.098,-0.254,0.031
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.283,0.185
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.041,0.045
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.106,-0.182,0.31
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.089,-0.123,0.263
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.256,0.052,0.456
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.169,-0.008,0.33
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.11,0.256
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.106,-0.182,0.31
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.21,-0.047,0.444
 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.317,0.085,0.492
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.363,0.152,0.52
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.314,0.147,0.458
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.235,-0.445,-0.035
-Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.234,-0.43,-0.092
-Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.212,-0.4,-0.046
-Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.247,-0.467,-0.078
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.23,-0.5,-0.002
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.18,-0.337,-0.049
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.204,-0.37,-0.055
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.11,-0.415,0.148
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.119,-0.45,0.154
-Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.168,-0.162,0.415
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.071,-0.052,0.191
-Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.236,0.136,0.326
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.288,0.193,0.375
-Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.232,0.091,0.354
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.211,-0.429,-0.058
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.21,-0.432,-0.057
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.223,-0.426,-0.092
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.206,-0.409,-0.067
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.189,-0.412,-0.042
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.181,-0.403,-0.033
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.206,-0.384,-0.075
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.116,-0.375,0.084
+LightGBM,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.089,-0.34,0.102
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.098,-0.356,0.11
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.183,-0.19,0.407
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.02,0.028
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.25,0.223
+LightGBM,TFT,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.133,-0.239,0.393
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.25,0.017,0.438
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.483,-0.928,-0.119
 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.482,-0.938,-0.122
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.456,-0.922,-0.104
 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.498,-0.991,-0.109
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.478,-0.916,-0.127
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.418,-0.959,-0.031
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.476,-0.968,-0.102
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.456,-0.922,-0.104
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.446,-0.89,-0.106
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.476,-0.916,-0.126
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.366,-0.877,-0.006
 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.333,-0.839,-0.033
 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.344,-0.837,-0.055
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.201,-0.711,0.14
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.225,-0.687,0.16
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.116,-0.482,0.162
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.22,-0.695,0.16
+AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.201,-0.711,0.14
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.062,-0.392,0.197
 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.082,-0.298,0.358
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.144,-0.212,0.398
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.078,-0.292,0.36
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.329,-0.568,-0.126
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.606,-0.133
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.548,-0.115
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.634,-0.137
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.635,-0.099
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.413,-0.132
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.507,-0.129
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.194,-0.485,0.008
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.204,-0.493,0.008
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.076,-0.235,0.049
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.104,-0.193,0.325
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.177,0.061,0.286
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.233,0.111,0.358
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.174,0.033,0.323
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.216,-0.417,-0.07
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.214,-0.417,-0.06
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.227,-0.419,-0.101
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.21,-0.398,-0.083
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.193,-0.401,-0.053
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.185,-0.397,-0.038
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.21,-0.376,-0.082
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.119,-0.358,0.067
+CatBoost,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.093,-0.321,0.092
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.345,0.099
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.029,0.019
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.181,-0.19,0.41
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.016,-0.24,0.213
+CatBoost,TFT,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.13,-0.224,0.383
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.247,0.025,0.432
+Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.235,-0.445,-0.035
+Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.234,-0.43,-0.092
+Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.247,-0.467,-0.078
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.229,-0.422,-0.055
+Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.212,-0.4,-0.046
+Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.204,-0.37,-0.055
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.229,-0.499,-0.0
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.137,-0.232,-0.04
+Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.11,-0.415,0.148
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.119,-0.45,0.154
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.287,0.2
+Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.168,-0.162,0.415
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.271,0.194
+Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.116,-0.051,0.26
+Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.236,0.136,0.326
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.858,-0.105
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.396,-0.797,-0.121
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.411,-0.876,-0.094
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.391,-0.831,-0.105
+TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.371,-0.791,-0.091
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.362,-0.733,-0.102
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.391,-0.914,-0.073
+TFT,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.287,-0.605,-0.052
+TFT,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.256,-0.773,0.054
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.266,-0.798,0.045
+TFT,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.153,-0.648,0.193
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.058,-0.245,0.281
+TFT,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.15,-0.622,0.183
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.132,-0.352,0.048
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.135,0.014,0.251
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-1.015,-0.319
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-1.045,-0.359
-Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.99,-0.316
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-1.091,-0.338
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-1.11,-0.271
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.815,-0.331
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.992,-0.328
+Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.99,-0.316
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.575,-0.927,-0.328
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.607,-1.108,-0.272
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.488,-0.769,-0.282
 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.452,-0.969,-0.082
 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.463,-0.968,-0.092
-Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.308,-0.483,-0.157
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.333,-0.779,-0.017
 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.089,-0.559,0.23
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.216,-0.4,-0.065
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.329,-0.759,-0.025
+Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.308,-0.483,-0.157
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.156,-0.336,-0.014
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.068,-0.011,0.163
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.004,-0.169,0.151
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.733,-1.133,-0.419
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.732,-1.123,-0.482
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.701,-1.073,-0.429
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.75,-1.179,-0.461
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.192,-0.388
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-0.96,-0.445
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.69,-1.037,-0.44
-Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.558,-1.07,-0.168
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.57,-1.084,-0.179
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.404,-0.6,-0.238
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.168,-0.661,0.175
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.304,-0.559,-0.124
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.073,-0.195,0.01
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.077,-0.195,0.018
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-0.888,-0.39
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.607,-0.901,-0.383
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.867,-0.367
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.624,-0.947,-0.401
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-0.96,-0.361
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.537,-0.751,-0.372
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.838,-0.388
-Drift,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.446,-0.837,-0.158
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.457,-0.847,-0.172
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.303,-0.549,-0.1
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.084,-0.562,0.226
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.211,-0.476,-0.034
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.004,-0.178,0.144
-Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.072,-0.018,0.163
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.108,0.137
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.063,0.073
+TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.108,0.137
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.02,-0.124,0.049
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.024,-0.091,0.142
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.057,0.195
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.095,0.138
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.166,0.152
 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.008,-0.184,0.15
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.104,-0.023,0.268
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.089,0.113
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.028,-0.115,0.163
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.059,-0.012,0.139
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.166,0.152
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.072,-0.078,0.192
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.165,0.037,0.307
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.17,0.027,0.288
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.186,0.053,0.339
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.302,0.168,0.445
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.302,0.151,0.466
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.25,0.135,0.374
-Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.159,0.097
-Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.092,0.059
-Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.144,0.052
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.009,-0.065,0.082
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.008,-0.16,0.126
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.089,-0.037,0.24
-Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.071,0.143
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.165,0.134
-Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.152,-0.069,0.311
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.157,-0.004,0.306
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.173,-0.029,0.334
-Chronos-2,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.291,0.073,0.451
-Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.291,0.052,0.471
-Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.238,0.053,0.37
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.078,0.059
-TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.062,0.084
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.062,0.084
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.087,0.031
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.018,-0.052,0.08
+TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.054,-0.089,0.201
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.053,0.073
+TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.139,0.133
 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.001,-0.156,0.132
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.098,-0.024,0.267
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.044,0.069
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.093,0.143
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.052,-0.028,0.146
-TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.139,0.133
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.066,-0.043,0.17
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.159,-0.02,0.324
 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.165,0.011,0.282
 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.181,0.01,0.351
-TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.297,0.113,0.463
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.298,0.098,0.478
-TiRex,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.245,0.092,0.382
+Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.159,0.097
+Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.092,0.059
+Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.144,0.052
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,-0.141,0.185
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.065,0.075
+Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.165,0.134
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.008,-0.16,0.126
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.001,-0.035,0.025
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.012,-0.131,0.145
+Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.071,0.143
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.057,-0.044,0.16
+Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.152,-0.069,0.311
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.157,-0.004,0.306
+Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.173,-0.029,0.334
+Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.291,0.052,0.471
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.052,0.11
-Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.055,0.126
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.032,0.08
+Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.055,0.126
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.043,-0.046,0.133
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.079,-0.061,0.204
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.045,0.126
+Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.03,-0.08,0.138
 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.027,-0.093,0.134
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.121,-0.021,0.28
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.034,-0.041,0.101
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.047,-0.06,0.159
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.077,-0.001,0.158
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.03,-0.08,0.138
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.09,-0.028,0.191
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.181,0.029,0.327
 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.187,0.016,0.325
 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.202,0.043,0.355
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.315,0.147,0.473
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.124,0.487
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.265,0.132,0.392
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.025,-0.166,0.083
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.009,-0.089,0.061
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.018,-0.087,0.05
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.045,-0.154,0.044
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.242,0.054
+FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.058,-0.251,0.082
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.227,0.124
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.086,-0.257,0.058
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.273,0.14
+FlowState,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.053,-0.274,0.151
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.057,-0.267,0.131
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.049,-0.208,0.096
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.035,-0.286,0.16
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.133,0.112
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.012,-0.213,0.185
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.111,0.02,0.203
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.117,-0.144,0.314
+FlowState,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.134,0.004,0.24
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.257,0.128,0.376
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.021,-0.161,0.087
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.014,-0.079,0.051
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.081,0.061
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.144,0.043
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.163,0.214
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.017,-0.182,0.121
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.081,-0.069,0.253
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.085,0.134
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.183,0.12
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.144,-0.085,0.321
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.15,0.026,0.263
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.166,-0.043,0.34
-Toto-1.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.284,0.062,0.453
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.285,0.047,0.473
-Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.231,0.045,0.375
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.17,0.12
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.172,0.119
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.006,-0.073,0.057
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.007,-0.126,0.133
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.039,-0.077,0.133
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.053,-0.053,0.162
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.147,-0.078,0.321
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.153,0.028,0.267
+Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.169,-0.036,0.343
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.288,0.053,0.476
+AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.011,-0.179,0.143
+AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.153,0.122
+AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.154,0.142
+AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.031,-0.16,0.074
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.05,-0.178,0.215
+AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.01,-0.136,0.145
+AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.04,0.045
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.146,0.122
+AutoETS,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.017,-0.124,0.154
+AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.082,0.166
+AutoETS,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.062,-0.075,0.18
+AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.155,-0.058,0.327
+AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.007,0.335
+AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.177,0.008,0.343
+AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.295,0.066,0.481
 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.008,-0.176,0.156
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.008,-0.145,0.138
 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.001,-0.153,0.135
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.008,-0.145,0.138
 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.028,-0.155,0.085
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.017,-0.137,0.154
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.054,-0.15,0.211
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.135,0.147
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.047,0.039
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.097,-0.079,0.244
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.134,0.123
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.02,-0.128,0.157
 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.051,-0.066,0.167
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.047,0.039
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.065,-0.063,0.186
 Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.158,-0.054,0.323
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.164,0.009,0.335
 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.18,0.025,0.327
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.296,0.108,0.458
 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.297,0.08,0.468
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.115,0.363
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.116,-0.366,0.023
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.098,-0.316,0.036
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.108,-0.365,0.024
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.138,-0.389,0.02
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.089,-0.339,0.064
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.107,-0.323,0.073
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.128,0.082
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.074,0.042
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.001,-0.026,0.034
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.035,-0.112,0.039
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.047,-0.106,0.172
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.006,-0.061,0.068
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.139,0.128
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.14,0.118
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.05,-0.196,0.049
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.103,-0.365,0.095
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.068,-0.063,0.168
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.074,-0.172,0.25
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.092,-0.02,0.181
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.221,0.082,0.328
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.222,0.075,0.338
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.163,0.055,0.248
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.115,0.145
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.043,0.124
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.058,-0.037,0.163
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.152,-0.041,0.301
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.158,0.004,0.297
+TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.174,0.001,0.322
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.292,0.081,0.459
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.029,-0.195,0.103
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.167,0.085
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.17,0.116
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.049,-0.189,0.057
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.034,-0.19,0.223
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.007,-0.153,0.112
+LightGBM,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.017,-0.182,0.11
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.021,-0.186,0.113
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.169,0.103
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.032,-0.148,0.159
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.046,0.001,0.094
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.141,-0.109,0.329
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.147,-0.07,0.303
+LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.163,-0.07,0.356
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.282,0.037,0.481
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.062,-0.161,0.011
-Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.167,0.066
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.055,-0.171,0.027
+Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.167,0.066
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.084,-0.188,0.001
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.037,-0.155,0.078
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.126,0.117
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.04,-0.154,0.072
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.051,-0.199,0.076
 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.201,0.062
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.048,-0.052,0.164
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.142,0.041
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.033,-0.189,0.129
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.051,-0.199,0.076
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.125,0.155
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.113,-0.012,0.219
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.119,-0.028,0.247
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.136,0.026,0.244
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.258,0.121,0.38
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.259,0.102,0.399
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.203,0.107,0.292
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.011,-0.179,0.143
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.154,0.142
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.153,0.122
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.031,-0.16,0.074
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.136,0.154
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.04,0.045
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.094,-0.105,0.267
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.082,0.166
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.155,-0.058,0.327
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.007,0.335
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.177,0.008,0.343
-AutoETS,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.294,0.094,0.464
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.295,0.066,0.481
-AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.241,0.094,0.377
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.078,-0.237,0.072
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.205,0.041
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.19,0.042
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.099,-0.237,0.027
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.012,-0.227,0.176
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.055,-0.193,0.05
+CatBoost,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.066,-0.219,0.07
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.07,-0.229,0.06
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.062,-0.195,0.036
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.048,-0.104,-0.001
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.184,0.111
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.1,-0.167,0.296
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.106,-0.092,0.266
+CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.123,-0.104,0.318
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.248,-0.011,0.457
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.197,-0.444,-0.038
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.179,-0.452,0.064
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.189,-0.48,0.02
+Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.179,-0.452,0.064
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.221,-0.487,-0.03
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.168,-0.472,0.078
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.125,-0.254,-0.021
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.173,-0.473,0.072
+Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.184,-0.486,0.055
 Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.188,-0.476,0.051
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.073,-0.201,0.059
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.18,-0.431,0.039
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.164,-0.489,0.099
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.127,-0.281,0.012
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.184,-0.486,0.055
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.111,-0.421,0.143
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.283,0.227
 Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.073,0.109
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.164,0.079,0.245
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.165,0.065,0.256
-Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.102,-0.013,0.203
 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.205,-0.404,-0.028
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.186,-0.441,0.004
 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.197,-0.394,-0.011
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.186,-0.441,0.004
 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.229,-0.482,-0.016
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.176,-0.356,-0.027
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.132,-0.457,0.126
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.18,-0.364,-0.029
+AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.504,-0.007
 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.196,-0.504,-0.009
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.08,-0.333,0.147
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.187,-0.423,-0.004
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.172,-0.435,0.066
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.135,-0.328,0.027
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.504,-0.007
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.118,-0.363,0.085
 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.294,0.221
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.198,0.22
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.158,-0.085,0.352
 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.159,-0.099,0.377
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.096,-0.116,0.293
 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.229,-0.512,-0.056
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.21,-0.501,0.029
 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.221,-0.54,-0.01
+AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.21,-0.501,0.029
 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.253,-0.55,-0.045
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.199,-0.516,0.041
+AutoTheta,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.154,-0.316,-0.004
+AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.203,-0.522,0.035
+AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.215,-0.521,-0.009
 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.219,-0.486,-0.025
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.102,-0.221,0.019
+AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.211,-0.476,-0.001
+AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.195,-0.552,0.066
 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.157,-0.323,-0.027
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.215,-0.521,-0.009
+AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.14,-0.466,0.094
 AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.122,0.068
 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.02,-0.282,0.166
 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.142,0.049,0.223
 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.143,0.04,0.238
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.078,0.006,0.16
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.432,-0.803,-0.201
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.41,-0.823,-0.079
-Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.422,-0.861,-0.127
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.461,-0.897,-0.172
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.397,-0.829,-0.066
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.421,-0.846,-0.12
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.284,-0.487,-0.089
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.348,-0.612,-0.138
-Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.416,-0.865,-0.104
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.196,-0.325,-0.085
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.188,-0.543,0.079
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.165,-0.287,-0.051
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.001,-0.064,0.06
-Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.074,-0.193,0.018
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.433,-0.874,-0.179
-Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.411,-0.889,-0.054
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.424,-0.915,-0.109
+Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.411,-0.889,-0.054
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.462,-0.951,-0.141
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.399,-0.898,-0.049
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.346,-0.602,-0.147
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.404,-0.91,-0.055
+Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.417,-0.928,-0.07
 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.422,-0.879,-0.087
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.285,-0.511,-0.082
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.412,-0.85,-0.089
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.394,-0.927,-0.038
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.349,-0.664,-0.113
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.417,-0.928,-0.07
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.33,-0.841,0.011
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.197,-0.344,-0.069
 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.189,-0.604,0.09
 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.166,-0.312,-0.041
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.001,-0.064,0.061
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.075,-0.224,0.057
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.333,-0.598,-0.156
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.312,-0.587,-0.056
-Drift,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.324,-0.617,-0.102
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.36,-0.644,-0.152
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.301,-0.601,-0.047
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.57,-0.129
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.195,-0.331,-0.059
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.255,-0.412,-0.12
-Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.318,-0.606,-0.104
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.113,-0.255,0.013
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.106,-0.414,0.104
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.19,-0.006
-Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.069,-0.018,0.162
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.07,-0.06,0.183
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
-TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.002,-0.105,0.106
-TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.109,0.043
-TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.023,0.085
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.109,0.12
-TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.04,-0.018,0.102
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.106,-0.099,0.28
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.098,-0.013,0.238
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.123,-0.074,0.306
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.258,0.079,0.398
-TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.215,0.091,0.339
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.274,0.122,0.417
-TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.261,0.536
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.4,0.286,0.502
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.332,0.543
-Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.119,0.095
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.119,0.095
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.021,-0.11,0.055
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.025,-0.055,0.099
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.003,-0.077,0.077
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.077,0.077
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.097,0.191
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.037,-0.004,0.081
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.038,-0.07,0.13
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.104,-0.054,0.262
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.096,-0.008,0.217
 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.121,-0.042,0.298
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.104,-0.054,0.262
 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.256,0.07,0.408
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.203,0.08,0.321
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.214,0.006,0.359
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.272,0.096,0.418
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.293,0.066,0.485
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.15,0.334
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.404,0.211,0.549
-Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.399,0.258,0.509
-Chronos-2,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.441,0.286,0.559
-Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.045,0.098
+TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.002,-0.105,0.106
+TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.109,0.043
+TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.023,0.085
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.109,0.114
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.067,-0.041,0.182
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.039,-0.028,0.11
+TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.04,-0.018,0.102
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.123,-0.074,0.306
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.106,-0.099,0.28
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.258,0.079,0.398
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.205,0.084,0.326
+TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.215,0.091,0.339
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.112,0.488
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.241,0.12,0.347
+TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.261,0.536
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.02,-0.058,0.099
+Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.045,0.098
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.045,-0.008,0.103
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.023,-0.061,0.104
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.059,0.098
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.084,-0.05,0.203
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.057,-0.016,0.126
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.951,0.057,-0.013,0.128
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.048,0.277
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.114,-0.014,0.258
 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.139,-0.02,0.311
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.048,0.277
 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.271,0.072,0.423
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.219,0.118,0.326
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.23,0.079,0.368
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.287,0.111,0.433
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.089,0.505
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.255,0.152,0.347
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.242,0.564
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.411,0.287,0.517
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.314,0.57
-TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.093,0.023
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.026,-0.11,0.052
+TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.093,0.023
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.047,-0.114,0.007
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.023,-0.099,0.044
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.024,-0.099,0.043
+TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.104,0.184
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.012,-0.046,0.072
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.067,0.096
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.081,-0.109,0.258
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.073,-0.044,0.227
 TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.099,-0.083,0.284
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.081,-0.109,0.258
 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.237,0.052,0.375
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.182,0.065,0.311
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.193,0.021,0.346
-TiRex,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.253,0.075,0.414
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.275,0.062,0.486
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.22,0.108,0.325
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.389,0.216,0.543
-TiRex,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.384,0.242,0.506
-TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.426,0.282,0.551
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.137,0.099
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.003,-0.084,0.072
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.024,-0.117,0.058
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.022,-0.046,0.09
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.084,0.072
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.128,0.098
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.109,0.056
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.023,-0.045,0.09
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.083,0.131
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.101,-0.064,0.273
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.093,-0.051,0.255
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.119,-0.053,0.302
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.254,0.091,0.389
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.211,-0.016,0.378
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.27,0.074,0.433
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.402,0.193,0.566
-Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.397,0.25,0.525
-Toto-1.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.439,0.269,0.573
-Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.113,0.018
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.138,0.234
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.035,-0.044,0.112
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.036,-0.076,0.13
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.12,-0.05,0.302
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.102,-0.06,0.272
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.255,0.091,0.39
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.202,0.1,0.306
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.212,-0.008,0.377
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.292,0.046,0.51
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.152,0.327
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.403,0.197,0.565
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.237,0.088
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.222,0.039
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.091,-0.255,0.048
+FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.225,0.094
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.305,0.121
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.03,-0.177,0.097
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.029,-0.166,0.091
+FlowState,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.186,0.293
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.042,-0.2,0.257
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.205,-0.072,0.407
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.148,-0.059,0.322
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.159,0.069,0.251
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.245,0.077,0.394
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.187,-0.009,0.337
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.363,0.225,0.479
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.038,-0.088,0.004
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.123,0.027
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.06,-0.144,0.016
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.077,0.044
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.126,0.043
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.029,-0.108,0.151
+TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.077,0.073
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.088,-0.08,0.261
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.07,-0.09,0.224
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.228,0.057,0.368
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.172,0.059,0.302
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.183,0.005,0.317
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.266,0.062,0.457
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.21,0.113,0.317
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.381,0.215,0.518
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.039,-0.149,0.066
+Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.113,0.018
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.049,0.5,-0.061,-0.147,0.013
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.013,-0.106,0.062
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.151,0.077
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.037,-0.15,0.071
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.028,-0.1,0.142
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.078,0.072
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.096,0.223
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.061,-0.042,0.173
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.087,-0.082,0.26
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.096,0.223
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.227,0.053,0.371
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.172,0.05,0.306
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.183,0.056,0.289
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.118,0.358
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.093,0.443
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.21,0.095,0.326
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.501
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.279,0.468
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.314,0.516
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.119,-0.389,0.09
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.116,-0.354,0.051
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.384,0.045
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.088,-0.347,0.099
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.113,-0.376,0.06
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.074,-0.287,0.088
-Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.248,0.165
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.04,0.075
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.17,0.016,0.344
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.169,0.322
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.188,0.027,0.341
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.335,0.128,0.5
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.329,0.182,0.458
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.376,0.191,0.523
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.109,-0.312,0.013
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.106,-0.278,0.008
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.129,-0.349,0.014
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.078,-0.294,0.042
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.103,-0.342,0.048
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.064,-0.21,0.04
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.198,0.199
-TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.028,-0.227,0.241
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.177,-0.059,0.349
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.13,-0.019,0.231
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.195,0.082,0.299
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.341,0.208,0.448
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.335,0.223,0.439
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.381,0.268,0.475
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.141,-0.442,0.069
 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.138,-0.424,0.04
+AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.141,-0.442,0.069
 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.162,-0.451,0.02
 AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.11,-0.396,0.077
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.135,-0.432,0.05
+AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.136,-0.432,0.047
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.065,-0.414,0.157
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.096,-0.352,0.074
 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.095,-0.352,0.076
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.02,-0.081,0.039
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.029,-0.317,0.185
 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.02,-0.081,0.039
 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.153,-0.023,0.348
+AutoETS,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.093,-0.145,0.277
 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.105,-0.213,0.319
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.172,-0.008,0.343
+AutoETS,DeepAR,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.196,-0.113,0.452
+AutoETS,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.134,-0.059,0.291
 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.322,0.097,0.505
-AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.316,0.144,0.468
-AutoETS,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.364,0.152,0.527
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.347,-0.661,-0.086
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.116,-0.354,0.051
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.119,-0.389,0.09
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.384,0.045
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.088,-0.347,0.099
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.114,-0.374,0.056
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.044,-0.346,0.167
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.075,-0.289,0.083
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.074,-0.287,0.088
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.04,0.075
+Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.17,0.016,0.344
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.11,-0.109,0.289
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.169,0.322
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.211,-0.07,0.437
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.151,-0.025,0.304
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.335,0.128,0.5
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.344,-0.689,-0.075
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.347,-0.661,-0.086
 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.372,-0.733,-0.077
 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.31,-0.6,-0.054
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.34,-0.636,-0.1
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.342,-0.64,-0.1
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.257,-0.686,0.068
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.295,-0.582,-0.06
 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.293,-0.591,-0.056
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.204,-0.524,-0.016
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.215,-0.536,0.055
 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.181,-0.533,0.023
+AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.204,-0.524,-0.016
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.071,-0.367,0.2
 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.057,-0.428,0.219
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.022,-0.198,0.228
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.05,-0.268,0.327
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.281,0.21
 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.199,-0.062,0.407
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.192,-0.037,0.404
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.248,-0.0,0.452
-Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.274,-0.513,-0.1
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.255,-0.472,-0.087
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.257,-0.483,-0.092
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.281,-0.483,-0.134
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.223,-0.451,-0.069
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.252,-0.44,-0.111
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.174,-0.474,0.056
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.208,-0.433,-0.063
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.207,-0.44,-0.052
+LightGBM,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.102,-0.382,0.126
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.124,-0.406,0.099
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.067,-0.249,0.268
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.013,-0.285,0.236
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.113,-0.266,0.397
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.046,0.001,0.094
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.253,-0.036,0.458
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.271,-0.561,-0.006
+Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.274,-0.513,-0.1
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.298,-0.582,-0.086
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.24,-0.529,-0.021
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.268,-0.607,0.016
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.269,-0.605,0.008
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.189,-0.335,-0.074
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.225,-0.464,-0.005
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.223,-0.407,-0.059
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.475,0.145
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.149,-0.301,0.019
 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.117,-0.469,0.175
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.475,0.145
 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.054,-0.28,0.3
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.013,-0.31,0.222
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.075,-0.067,0.212
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.102,-0.047,0.246
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.033,-0.254,0.258
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.242,0.118,0.351
-Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.236,0.085,0.374
-Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.289,0.182,0.393
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.377,-0.714,-0.139
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.374,-0.717,-0.106
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.403,-0.763,-0.124
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.339,-0.705,-0.081
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.37,-0.765,-0.08
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.558,-0.133
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.231,-0.518,-0.027
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.242,-0.427,-0.09
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.207,-0.523,0.008
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.295,0.166
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.081,-0.269,0.063
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.181,0.065,0.292
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.174,0.037,0.325
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.232,0.108,0.357
-Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.155,-0.354
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.415,-0.941,-0.07
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.952,-0.126
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.445,-1.02,-0.098
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.38,-0.945,-0.066
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.413,-1.041,-0.048
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.324,-0.65,-0.084
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.363,-0.841,-0.066
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.362,-0.795,-0.103
+DeepAR,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.243,-0.826,0.101
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.268,-0.778,0.065
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.053,-0.485,0.212
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.128,-0.659,0.21
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.113,-0.326,0.045
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.076,-0.576,0.233
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.157,0.03,0.272
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.5,-0.176
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.318,-0.532,-0.136
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.342,-0.53,-0.18
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.282,-0.482,-0.121
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.485,-0.179
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.23,-0.509,0.009
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.266,-0.463,-0.128
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.265,-0.484,-0.104
+CatBoost,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.155,-0.411,0.056
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.178,-0.437,0.024
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.022,-0.266,0.22
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.048,-0.104,-0.001
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.034,-0.347,0.202
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.071,-0.304,0.365
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.217,-0.068,0.419
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.678,-1.217,-0.268
+Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.155,-0.354
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-1.293,-0.32
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.636,-1.186,-0.275
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.673,-1.302,-0.239
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.676,-1.297,-0.246
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.57,-0.92,-0.291
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.617,-1.074,-0.273
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-1.006,-0.319
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.504,-0.999,-0.146
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.517,-0.812,-0.263
 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.475,-1.018,-0.108
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.504,-0.999,-0.146
 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.249,-0.686,0.058
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.338,-0.847,0.034
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.32,-0.542,-0.134
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.222,-0.412,-0.07
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.186,-0.374,-0.031
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.277,-0.722,0.064
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.008,-0.182,0.152
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.061,-0.035,0.162
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.668,-1.008,-0.4
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.664,-1.037,-0.348
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.699,-1.071,-0.402
-Drift,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.623,-1.022,-0.32
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.659,-1.105,-0.333
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.881,-0.387
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.491,-0.843,-0.222
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.505,-0.784,-0.286
-Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.462,-0.878,-0.168
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.238,-0.677,0.036
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.309,-0.597,-0.092
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.211,-0.481,-0.038
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.008,-0.179,0.154
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.069,-0.016,0.16
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.792,-1.189,-0.498
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.788,-1.27,-0.4
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.324,-0.458
-Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.744,-1.229,-0.393
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.783,-1.344,-0.368
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.066,-0.457
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.602,-1.098,-0.237
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.617,-0.905,-0.367
-Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.571,-1.116,-0.179
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.331,-0.826,0.0
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.407,-0.647,-0.222
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.302,-0.554,-0.121
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.066,-0.194,0.034
-Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.075,-0.191,0.016
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,95.91836734693878,31.297845857459595,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,88.77551020408163,30.089978096846835,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,86.73469387755102,28.869849444319463,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,65.3061224489796,24.574044447615496,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,64.28571428571429,23.393412727785645,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,25.54731526015246,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,5.872754086951614,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857
-AutoARIMA,31.63265306122449,2.7206673781491886,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857
-AutoTheta,28.57142857142857,2.2840445726052927,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,26.53061224489796,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-16.790213190879342,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0
-Naive,9.183673469387754,-40.74006375897996,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0
-Drift,1.0204081632653061,-55.8521959090168,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,95.0,31.297845826674763,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,89.28571428571429,30.08997810079499,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,85.0,28.869849458291053,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,84.28571428571429,28.358976057331542,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,63.57142857142857,25.573203950705693,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,62.5,25.335908970299936,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,62.5,25.335908970299936,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0
+TFT,61.42857142857143,21.59101828180743,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,60.0,24.532719864713304,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,58.57142857142858,23.393412693458927,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,48.57142857142858,20.158757124750093,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,45.714285714285715,19.233879992772206,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,45.00000000000001,18.807513597537383,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,45.00000000000001,16.989509965321957,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,35.71428571428571,7.694422260326506,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285
+AutoARIMA,28.57142857142857,3.300627782307375,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285
+AutoTheta,25.71428571428572,2.2840445944943277,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,24.28571428571429,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,20.0,-16.79021320144407,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0
+Naive,7.857142857142856,-40.74006367145597,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0
+Drift,1.4285714285714286,-55.85219582340872,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.025730182452186,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,42.67646308509806,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,87.75510204081634,42.05186472663197,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,69.38775510204081,37.208526302389004,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.018777793021975,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,33.55369924549565,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,39.79591836734694,9.230847183253665,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857
-Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,7.230158345242376,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857
-Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,24.489795918367346,-26.74094614085021,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-344.79628604120813,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0
-Naive,10.204081632653061,-146.71797661038454,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0
-Drift,3.061224489795918,-161.01029312352807,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,96.42857142857144,44.0257301550027,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,92.85714285714286,42.67646308976785,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,87.14285714285714,42.05186473784456,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,84.28571428571429,41.10947919178341,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0
+TFT,67.85714285714285,35.28274979848835,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,67.85714285714285,39.04058286932375,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,63.21428571428572,37.28267455060899,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,63.21428571428572,37.28267455060899,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,62.14285714285715,36.53371858952617,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,59.285714285714285,34.81362887689631,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,52.142857142857146,28.352379402273474,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,50.0,33.55369921291073,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,36.42857142857142,12.567557563101495,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285
+CatBoost,33.57142857142858,18.14162293295429,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,32.85714285714286,18.571486122225835,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,32.14285714285714,5.668302598674924,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285
+Seasonal Naive,23.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,21.428571428571427,-26.740946175062753,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,14.285714285714285,-344.79628797747506,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0
+Naive,7.142857142857142,-146.7179766143382,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0
+Drift,2.142857142857143,-161.010293113985,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,31.42661419654642,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,87.75510204081633,30.13802811893269,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,80.61224489795919,28.669799374404302,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,68.36734693877551,25.6785844710001,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,65.3061224489796,25.90099075182256,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,62.24489795918367,23.330206039824308,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,4.641393336578314,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857
-AutoARIMA,35.71428571428572,2.3947580894125298,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857
-Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,25.510204081632654,0.0437412996646791,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-23.08073844288401,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0
-Naive,9.183673469387754,-43.56382513496191,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0
-Drift,1.0204081632653061,-58.78908483912755,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,94.28571428571428,31.4266145251638,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,89.28571428571429,30.138028587482914,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,84.28571428571429,28.54102491089481,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,78.57142857142857,28.6697990451958,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,63.57142857142858,25.92723519256259,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0
+TFT,63.57142857142857,22.688998509483994,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,62.857142857142875,25.32355760868511,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,61.78571428571429,25.18849985695557,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,61.78571428571429,25.18849985695557,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,56.42857142857143,23.330206407241285,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,55.00000000000001,21.081187839834037,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,46.428571428571445,16.97148442691696,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,45.714285714285715,19.108828334469262,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,44.28571428571429,19.415152538379978,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,36.42857142857142,6.5098083173125705,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285
+AutoARIMA,31.428571428571434,2.9139047191151235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285
+Seasonal Naive,24.28571428571429,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,22.14285714285714,0.04374386375031181,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,18.571428571428573,-23.08073712658869,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0
+Naive,7.857142857142856,-43.56382539762269,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0
+Drift,1.4285714285714286,-58.78908533558298,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,43.233433897648524,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,84.6938775510204,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,70.40816326530613,38.56288334540934,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.79490314550572,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,40.81632653061225,9.557478558677035,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857
-Stat. Ensemble,35.71428571428572,5.698092718548208,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857
-Seasonal Naive,28.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,23.46938775510204,-35.07795159739386,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-351.4556695211341,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0
-Naive,10.204081632653061,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0
-Drift,3.061224489795918,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,95.00000000000001,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,92.14285714285715,43.23343389055629,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,83.57142857142857,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,82.85714285714286,41.75327825678771,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0
+TFT,70.71428571428572,36.840744132528904,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,68.57142857142857,39.810526410008265,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,65.00000000000001,37.74075942414697,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,63.57142857142858,36.14199113093005,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,63.21428571428572,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,63.21428571428572,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0
+PatchTST,49.999999999999986,28.980793211199895,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,49.28571428571428,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,37.142857142857146,12.839232215840235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285
+CatBoost,34.285714285714285,19.204492596603718,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,32.85714285714286,19.51045461394707,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,30.0,3.9294085240204057,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285
+Seasonal Naive,24.28571428571428,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,20.71428571428571,-35.07795159983096,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,14.285714285714285,-351.4556695151647,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0
+Naive,7.142857142857142,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0
+Drift,2.142857142857143,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv

@@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.024,0.061
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.034,0.009,0.076
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.049,0.126
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.041,0.003,0.083
+Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.027,0.265
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.14
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.09,0.05,0.128
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.061,0.146
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.141
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.176,0.353
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.204,0.364
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.185,0.384
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.052,0.228
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.172,0.064,0.287
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.093,0.204
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.154,0.087,0.216
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.172,0.327
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.233,0.391
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.237,0.543
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.402,0.614
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.451,0.653
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.065,0.024
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.021,0.051
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.04,0.109
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,0.01,0.038
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.108,0.007,0.239
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,-0.003,0.117
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.041,0.11
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.048,0.127
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,-0.003,0.118
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.15,0.359
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.184,0.367
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.17,0.391
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.124,0.041,0.194
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.068,0.25
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.085,0.179
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.084,0.192
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.15,0.334
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.39
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.219,0.542
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.37,0.621
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.43,0.659
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.082,-0.009
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.054,0.02
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.02,0.093
+TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.022,0.044
+TiRex,TFT,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.093,-0.014,0.239
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.044,0.016,0.075
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.024,0.087
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.071,0.027,0.116
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.016,0.076
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.144,0.332
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.179,0.342
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.155,0.369
+TiRex,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.041,0.174
+TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.143,0.053,0.243
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.119,0.045,0.186
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.124,0.052,0.194
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.138,0.31
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.214,0.356
-TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.205,0.532
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.375,0.603
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.435,0.643
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.144,-0.051
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.122,-0.042
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.102,-0.02
-TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.015,-0.02,0.054
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.013,-0.076,0.044
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.109,0.286
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.148,0.295
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.32
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.154,0.321
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.174,0.502
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.328,0.578
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.398,0.621
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.043,-0.09,-0.003
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.039,-0.01
+FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.046,0.022
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.086,-0.018,0.218
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.037,-0.027,0.09
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.002,0.079
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.002,0.079
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.051,0.026,0.083
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.032,0.097
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.103,0.016,0.176
+FlowState,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.137,0.045,0.232
+FlowState,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,0.057,0.162
+FlowState,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.058,0.171
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.132,0.31
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.193,0.366
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.36,-0.027
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.122,-0.315,-0.008
+TFT,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.102,-0.314,0.014
+TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.094,-0.279,0.017
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.054,-0.283,0.085
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.05,-0.267,0.086
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.05,-0.267,0.086
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.039,-0.214,0.071
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.024,-0.166,0.073
+TFT,DeepAR,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.018,-0.146,0.144
+TFT,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.055,-0.018,0.143
+TFT,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.029,-0.096,0.119
+TFT,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.034,-0.08,0.124
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.151,-0.073,0.305
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.216,0.01,0.356
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.083,-0.163,-0.031
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.133,0.003
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.046,-0.081,-0.016
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.039,-0.099,0.026
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.051,-0.093,0.221
+Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.045,0.069
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.028,-0.042,0.098
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.068,0.005,0.126
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.103,0.011,0.223
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.078,-0.027,0.17
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.083,-0.02,0.175
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.194,0.083,0.282
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.189,0.319
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.086,-0.002
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.048,-0.094,0.21
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.07,0.045
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.045,0.059
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.065,-0.038,0.147
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.101,-0.023,0.224
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.076,-0.002,0.147
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.08,0.006,0.157
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.105,0.277
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.086,-0.002
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.048,-0.094,0.21
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.07,0.045
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.045,0.059
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.065,-0.038,0.147
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.101,-0.023,0.224
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.076,-0.002,0.147
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.08,0.006,0.157
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.105,0.277
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.147,-0.053
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.124,-0.042
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.096,-0.025
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.09,-0.026
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.038,-0.077,0.177
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.074,0.043
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.062,0.043
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.062,0.043
+TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.015,-0.021,0.051
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.055,-0.033,0.139
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.091,-0.01,0.198
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.066,-0.012,0.13
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.071,-0.015,0.14
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.097,0.259
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.162,0.319
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.171,-0.065
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.096,-0.145,-0.05
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.077,-0.131,-0.027
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.016,-0.057,0.02
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.108,-0.033
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.023,-0.079,0.143
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.029,-0.109,0.04
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.015,-0.054,0.02
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.029,-0.108,0.041
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.186,0.072,0.282
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.123,0.291
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.123,0.313
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.041,-0.049,0.129
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.077,-0.018,0.169
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.052,-0.007,0.108
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.007,0.113
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,0.067,0.258
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.136,0.317
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.18,0.475
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.308,0.575
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.38,0.616
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.164,-0.031
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.134,0.003
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.082,-0.016
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.013,-0.046,0.07
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.028,-0.043,0.098
-Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.209,0.098,0.307
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.235,0.131,0.313
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.238,0.103,0.343
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.188,0.319
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.363,0.156,0.515
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.356,0.581
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.417,0.623
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.37,-0.546,-0.213
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.561,-0.177
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.497,-0.169
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.401,-0.122
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.229,-0.392,-0.077
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.264,-0.443,-0.109
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.295,-0.054
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.142,-0.24,-0.043
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.122,-0.21,-0.043
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.114,-0.214,-0.017
+DeepAR,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.018,-0.169,0.127
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.073,-0.144,-0.005
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.069,-0.172,0.036
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.069,-0.172,0.036
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.058,-0.161,0.032
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.042,-0.148,0.047
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.718,0.038,-0.028,0.124
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.102,0.11
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.017,-0.085,0.111
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.135,-0.035,0.28
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.202,0.094,0.302
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.208,-0.402,-0.069
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.334,-0.073
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.167,-0.321,-0.056
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.159,-0.303,-0.047
+PatchTST,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.059,-0.167,0.018
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.115,-0.287,-0.011
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.112,-0.289,0.022
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.112,-0.289,0.022
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.1,-0.246,0.01
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.084,-0.203,0.018
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.571,0.282,1.0,-0.04,-0.142,0.028
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.028,-0.148,0.069
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.022,-0.126,0.062
+PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.101,-0.123,0.266
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,-0.001,0.305
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.176,-0.257,-0.102
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.155,-0.218,-0.092
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.135,-0.228,-0.047
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.127,-0.193,-0.061
+LightGBM,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.03,-0.135,0.088
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.085,-0.205,0.026
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.082,-0.173,0.002
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.082,-0.173,0.002
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.07,-0.15,0.012
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.054,-0.121,0.007
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.123,0.093
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.027,-0.074,0.129
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.005,-0.015,0.025
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.125,-0.02,0.25
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.192,0.04,0.318
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.182,-0.276,-0.095
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.238,-0.092
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.141,-0.241,-0.055
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.133,-0.207,-0.062
+CatBoost,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.035,-0.142,0.074
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.091,-0.212,0.02
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.087,-0.187,-0.006
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.087,-0.187,-0.006
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.076,-0.163,0.015
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.128,0.007
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.017,-0.124,0.078
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.022,-0.067,0.112
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.005,-0.026,0.015
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.12,-0.041,0.257
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.188,0.037,0.318
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.487,-0.207
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.501,-0.176
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.45,-0.161
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.288,-0.45,-0.152
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.177,-0.438,0.068
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.24,-0.393,-0.09
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.384,-0.117
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.384,-0.117
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.35,-0.107
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.205,-0.348,-0.072
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.156,-0.389,0.033
+Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.112,-0.363,0.109
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.143,-0.333,0.019
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.137,-0.346,0.039
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.032,-0.002,0.079
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.085,0.148
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.059,-0.038,0.141
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.194,0.026,0.393
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.172,0.461
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.251,0.517
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.572,-0.256
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.581,-0.225
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.519,-0.218
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.29,-0.418,-0.174
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.41,-0.14
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.307,-0.455,-0.15
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.033,-0.085,0.002
-AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.104,0.098
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.214,0.857,0.027,-0.063,0.098
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.167,-0.0,0.353
-AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.141,0.448
-AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.227,0.503
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.624,-0.227
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.643,-0.205
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.586,-0.184
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.47,-0.147
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.456,-0.14
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.312,-0.523,-0.115
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.173,0.079
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.109,0.094
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.023,-0.109,0.143
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.163,0.016,0.312
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.306,0.133,0.424
-AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.233,0.477
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.077,-0.019,0.152
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.456,-0.641,-0.304
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.639,-0.257
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.554,-0.272
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.474,-0.182
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.396,-0.577,-0.238
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.275,-0.552,-0.01
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.468,-0.232
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.469,-0.194
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.465,-0.157
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.468,-0.232
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.062,-0.164,0.036
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.786,-0.028,-0.109,0.059
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.023,-0.167,0.098
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.252,-0.432,-0.104
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.205,-0.439,0.001
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.238,-0.466,-0.042
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.232,-0.467,-0.038
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.083,-0.179,0.019
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.144,-0.08,0.347
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.162,0.408
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.233,0.467
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.7,-1.189,-0.31
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-1.186,-0.281
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.642,-1.135,-0.258
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-1.007,-0.211
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.905,-0.219
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.569,-1.06,-0.185
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.241,-0.648,-0.027
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.201,-0.545,0.0
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.195,-0.452,-0.016
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.168,-0.531,0.074
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,-0.204,0.396
-AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.251,-0.069,0.449
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.592,-0.672
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.641,-0.586
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.979,-1.521,-0.601
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.866,-1.37,-0.488
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.837,-1.355,-0.444
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.385,-0.552
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.495,-0.856,-0.207
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.811,-0.164
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.44,-0.736,-0.153
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.689,-0.193
-Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.205,-0.655,0.169
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.063,0.13
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.88,-0.82
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.229,-1.932,-0.755
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.191,-1.804,-0.769
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.066,-1.636,-0.662
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.602,-0.613
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.093,-1.654,-0.714
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.07,-0.335
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-1.01,-0.294
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.913,-0.303
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.877,-0.304
-Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.334,-0.816,0.065
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.149,-0.068
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv

@@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.024,-0.013,0.065
 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.034,0.012,0.07
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.062,0.153
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.044,0.138
-Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.05,0.013,0.09
+Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.135,0.036,0.278
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.044,0.137
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172
+Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.065,0.171
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.056,0.225
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.069,0.379
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.126,0.193
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.26,0.478
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.273,0.489
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.246,0.436
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.316,0.26,0.368
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.261,0.362
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.347,0.521
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.343,0.711
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.86,0.51,0.958
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.719,0.816
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.732,0.829
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.069,0.013
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.028,0.042
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.05,0.119
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.016,0.038
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.114,0.011,0.253
 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.005,0.11
-TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139
+TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.142
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.121,0.027,0.196
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.057,0.354
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.137,0.109,0.169
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.245,0.471
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.255,0.481
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.235,0.424
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.252,0.344
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.251,0.335
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.314,0.522
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.33,0.709
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.856,0.492,0.957
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.709,0.815
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.724,0.826
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.035,-0.076,-0.012
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.044,0.027
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,0.027,0.129
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.03,0.074
-TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15
+TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.016,-0.011,0.051
+TiRex,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.105,0.005,0.253
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.049,0.029,0.073
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15
+TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.087,0.029,0.145
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.111,0.039,0.178
+TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.056,0.356
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.09,0.167
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.233,0.466
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.24,0.476
+TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.337,0.221,0.422
+TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.292,0.229,0.35
+TiRex,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.222,0.346
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.325,0.506
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.317,0.701
-TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.855,0.486,0.957
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.704,0.812
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.717,0.824
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.122,-0.181,-0.067
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.135,-0.052
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.147,-0.028
-TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.03,-0.107,0.041
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.032,0.082
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.199,0.416
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.209,0.425
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.269,0.467
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.278,0.671
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.463,0.955
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.691,0.79
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.759,0.706,0.803
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.16,-0.046
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.124,-0.005
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.08,-0.031
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.029,-0.042,0.096
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.099,-0.013
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.027,-0.039,-0.016
+FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.016,-0.053,0.01
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.02,0.235
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.034,-0.017,0.078
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.021,0.114
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.021,0.114
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.072,0.027,0.116
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.097,0.005,0.175
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.178,0.029,0.338
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.084,0.143
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.221,0.402
+FlowState,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.224,0.33
+FlowState,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.222,0.323
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.301,0.504
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.156,-0.385,-0.038
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.129,-0.339,-0.011
+TFT,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.117,-0.339,-0.005
+TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.307,0.019
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.062,-0.283,0.066
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.032,-0.249,0.122
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.032,-0.249,0.122
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.02,-0.156,0.074
+TFT,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.157,0.129
+TFT,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.097,0.031,0.172
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.026,-0.128,0.123
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.26,0.086,0.398
+TFT,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.209,0.104,0.29
+TFT,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.205,0.093,0.288
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.219,0.471
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.159,-0.046
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.063,-0.123,-0.005
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.079,-0.03
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.035,-0.085,0.017
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.058,-0.071,0.221
 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11
 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.082,0.022,0.136
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.328,0.187,0.44
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.343,0.196,0.453
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.039,-0.039,0.113
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.065,0.002,0.121
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.149,0.013,0.325
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.083,0.022,0.137
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.303,0.17,0.399
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.171,0.326
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.161,0.323
 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.294,0.473
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.277,0.683
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.849,0.443,0.955
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.683,0.804
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.697,0.817
-Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056
-Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046
-Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039
-Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416
-Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039
-Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.129,-0.022
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.031,-0.138,0.199
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.029,-0.124,0.038
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.012,-0.077,0.088
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.038,-0.102,0.142
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.125,-0.07,0.309
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416
+Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.173,0.358
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.171,0.299
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.167,0.29
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81
+Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056
+Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046
+Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.129,-0.022
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.031,-0.138,0.199
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.029,-0.124,0.038
+Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.012,-0.077,0.088
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.038,-0.102,0.142
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.125,-0.07,0.309
+Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.173,0.358
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.171,0.299
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.167,0.29
+Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.206,-0.07
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.165,-0.052
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.095,-0.17,-0.03
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.078,-0.131,-0.028
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.019,-0.08,0.135
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.041,-0.127,0.037
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.096,0.072
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.096,0.072
+TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.026,-0.075,0.123
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.114,-0.029,0.261
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.011,0.085
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.176,0.365
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.159,0.285
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.16,0.277
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.268,0.459
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.291,-0.059
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.137,-0.243,-0.028
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.125,-0.216,-0.041
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.107,-0.212,-0.005
+DeepAR,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.148,0.136
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.069,-0.138,-0.002
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.039,-0.166,0.093
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.039,-0.166,0.093
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.027,-0.141,0.069
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.09,-0.02,0.249
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.019,-0.081,0.107
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.254,0.068,0.388
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.204,0.11,0.287
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.199,0.1,0.286
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.232,0.448
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.28,-0.61,-0.074
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.548,-0.06
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.553,-0.059
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.217,-0.51,-0.029
+PatchTST,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.107,-0.208,-0.032
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.175,-0.481,-0.013
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.142,-0.448,0.066
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.142,-0.448,0.066
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.129,-0.354,0.028
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.099,-0.331,0.019
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.078,-0.315,0.092
+PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.181,-0.066,0.372
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.125,-0.054,0.249
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.12,-0.076,0.256
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.113,0.428
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.24,-0.145
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.159,-0.203,-0.122
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.147,-0.2,-0.098
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.089,-0.033
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.09,-0.158,-0.022
-Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.167,-0.091
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.027,-0.141,0.114
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.09,-0.158,-0.023
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0
+Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.092,-0.011
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.019,-0.12,0.075
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.073,-0.101,0.24
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.146,0.375
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.156,0.39
+Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.24,0.125,0.325
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.135,0.234
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.134,0.229
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.229,0.428
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.476,0.241,0.651
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.84,0.419,0.954
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.671,0.779
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.688,0.793
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.622,-0.916,-0.35
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.889,-0.325
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.871,-0.303
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.712,-0.248
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.488,-0.784,-0.23
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.6,-0.171
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.772,-0.326
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.736,-0.308
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.509,-0.729,-0.283
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.673,-0.284
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.351,-0.66,-0.094
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.434,-0.664,-0.205
+AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.394,-0.557,-0.21
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.394,-0.557,-0.21
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.378,-0.576,-0.214
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.341,-0.635,-0.073
+AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.22,-0.592,0.062
+AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.316,-0.481,-0.143
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.022,0.004,0.038
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.092,-0.059,0.197
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.084,0.465
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.253,0.937
-AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.632,0.558,0.691
-AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.58,0.71
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.956,-0.376
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.927,-0.342
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.908,-0.316
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.477,-0.74,-0.265
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.521,-0.829,-0.243
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.639,-0.185
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.022,-0.039,-0.004
-Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.072,-0.096,0.186
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.067,0.446
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.245,0.936
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.549,0.68
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.572,0.701
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.068,-0.26,0.11
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.074,-0.253,0.102
+AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.02,0.223
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.462,-0.581,-0.352
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.428,-0.524,-0.337
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.413,-0.539,-0.297
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.39,-0.492,-0.289
+CatBoost,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.265,-0.409,-0.116
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.484,-0.206
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.426,-0.206
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.426,-0.206
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.29,-0.399,-0.189
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.256,-0.402,-0.124
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.143,-0.332,0.051
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.232,-0.305,-0.156
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.064,-0.124,0.207
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.005,-0.026,0.015
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.181,0.004,0.329
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.566,-0.354
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.503,-0.335
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.53,-0.286
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.478,-0.285
+LightGBM,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.258,-0.405,-0.103
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.478,-0.192
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.408,-0.201
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.408,-0.201
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.383,-0.19
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.249,-0.401,-0.111
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.137,-0.344,0.07
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.298,-0.155
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.069,-0.114,0.202
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.005,-0.015,0.025
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.186,0.007,0.338
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.087,-0.531
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.744,-1.092,-0.458
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.023,-0.482
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.876,-0.368
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.64,-0.896,-0.416
-Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.698,-1.017,-0.431
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.545,-0.89,-0.28
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.64,-0.897,-0.416
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329
+Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.576,-0.849,-0.366
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.811,-0.303
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.747,-0.128
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.749,-0.296
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.102,-0.245,0.056
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.078,-0.228,0.088
+Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.144,-0.286,0.02
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.222,-0.489,-0.004
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.228,-0.511,-0.007
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.211,-0.037,0.4
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.775,0.199,0.936
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.537,0.639
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.555,0.664
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.264,-2.458,-0.521
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.211,-2.434,-0.492
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.187,-2.346,-0.464
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.018,-2.041,-0.385
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.078,-2.15,-0.384
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.907,-1.864,-0.318
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.868,-0.091
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.806,-0.072
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.267,-0.667,0.036
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.722,0.013,0.91
-AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.336,0.597
-AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.375,0.62
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.136,-22.624,-1.041
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.961,-22.389,-0.969
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.913,-22.04,-0.946
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.568,-21.334,-0.862
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.605,-21.234,-0.797
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.248,-20.643,-0.722
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.735,-14.953,-0.339
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-14.613,-0.324
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.448,-14.656,-0.248
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.591,-10.089,-0.013
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.129,-7.081,0.442
-AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.041,-6.801,0.465
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.408,-4.434,-2.563
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.304,-4.393,-2.438
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.258,-4.322,-2.38
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.929,-3.762,-2.238
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.046,-4.115,-2.158
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.713,-3.518,-2.044
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.718,-2.232,-1.263
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.659,-2.123,-1.216
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.467,-1.772,-1.16
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.947,-1.479,-0.505
-Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.53,-0.793,0.876
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-4.836,-2.73
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.553,-4.74,-2.617
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.504,-4.692,-2.529
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.157,-4.067,-2.401
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.28,-4.461,-2.302
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.928,-3.827,-2.2
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.876,-2.448,-1.382
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-2.34,-1.336
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-1.975,-1.248
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.629,-0.6
-Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.51,-0.87,0.872
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.018,-0.024,0.065
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.04,0.004,0.081
 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.011,0.084
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.047,0.108
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,0.018,0.255
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.03,0.134
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.049,0.113
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.03,0.134
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.06,0.154
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.182,0.366
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.206,0.369
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.131,0.048,0.222
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.062,0.296
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.152,0.084,0.214
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.09,0.203
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.178,0.34
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.232,0.391
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.201,0.401
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.261,0.591
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.402,0.632
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.454,0.667
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.019,-0.069,0.024
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,0.007,0.037
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.017,0.056
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.095
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.096,-0.01,0.224
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.057,-0.003,0.111
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.035,0.097
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.112
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.047,0.134
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.157,0.371
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.184,0.374
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.115,0.041,0.183
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.067,0.258
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.078,0.19
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.081,0.178
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.155,0.341
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.392
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.401
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.239,0.579
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.513,0.375,0.635
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.431,0.67
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.042,-0.088,-0.004
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.023,-0.039,-0.007
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.043,0.031
+FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.076,-0.033,0.205
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.035,-0.029,0.088
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.023,0.067
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.007,0.088
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.007,0.088
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.034,0.104
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.095,0.01,0.169
+FlowState,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.042,0.243
+FlowState,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.117,0.056,0.171
+FlowState,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.06,0.16
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.143,0.321
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.189,0.371
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.091,-0.011
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.059,0.016
+TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.031,0.041
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.04,-0.005,0.083
+TiRex,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.077,-0.044,0.226
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,0.012,0.063
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.045,0.01,0.078
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,0.013,0.064
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.07,0.022,0.12
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.153,0.343
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.176,0.345
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.096,0.033,0.157
+TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.051,0.248
+TiRex,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.118,0.043,0.189
+TiRex,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.115,0.041,0.182
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.146,0.318
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.21,0.357
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.173,0.377
-TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.225,0.575
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.378,0.619
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.436,0.656
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.12,-0.049
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.105,-0.024
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.042,-0.09,0.005
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.127,-0.342,-0.018
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.107,-0.289,0.01
+TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.082,-0.258,0.032
+TFT,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.084,-0.292,0.042
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.044,-0.269,0.099
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.035,-0.202,0.071
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.033,-0.24,0.101
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.033,-0.24,0.101
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.008,-0.139,0.08
+TFT,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.02,-0.136,0.153
+TFT,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.069,0.002,0.157
+TFT,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.044,-0.072,0.132
+TFT,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.041,-0.078,0.126
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.173,-0.047,0.327
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.227,0.023,0.368
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.155,-0.031
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.06,-0.125,0.003
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.037,-0.096,0.028
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.038,-0.067,-0.013
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.042,-0.11,0.212
+Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.008,-0.055,0.066
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.036,0.105
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.061,0.002,0.119
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.108,0.013,0.235
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.084,-0.014,0.172
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.081,-0.02,0.168
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.208,0.105,0.297
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.186,0.328
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.128,-0.052
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.108,-0.036
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.072,-0.023
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.047,-0.085,-0.01
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.034,-0.077,0.168
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.008,-0.071,0.052
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.074,0.064
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.031,-0.004,0.071
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.126,0.307
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.155,0.311
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.158,0.338
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.161,0.341
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.208,0.548
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.34,0.599
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.409,0.638
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.002,-0.05,0.054
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.002,-0.05,0.054
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.026,-0.003,0.06
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.054,-0.032,0.137
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.101,-0.002,0.212
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,-0.003,0.142
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.073,0.006,0.131
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.201,0.111,0.282
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.163,0.331
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.007
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.032,-0.112,0.193
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.083,0.042
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.002,-0.057,0.047
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.052,-0.051,0.139
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.099,-0.026,0.23
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.075,0.003,0.151
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.072,-0.001,0.143
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.116,0.287
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.007
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.032,-0.112,0.193
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.083,0.042
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.002,-0.057,0.047
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.052,-0.051,0.139
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.099,-0.026,0.23
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.075,0.003,0.151
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.072,-0.001,0.143
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.116,0.287
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.155,-0.031
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.061,-0.126,0.002
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.039,-0.068,-0.013
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.068,0.069
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076
-Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.037,0.105
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.223,0.115,0.32
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.241,0.135,0.323
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.186,0.327
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.134,0.355
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.398,0.183,0.558
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.484,0.361,0.601
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.424,0.639
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.182,-0.064
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.155,-0.049
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.116,-0.035
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.075,-0.137,-0.022
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.032,-0.076,0.004
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.008,-0.087,0.122
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.117,0.035
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.027,-0.064,0.003
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.117,0.036
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.196,0.075,0.293
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.214,0.116,0.296
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.028,-0.056,0.119
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.077,-0.02,0.174
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.052,-0.014,0.109
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.049,-0.009,0.105
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.18,0.071,0.27
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.129,0.32
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.2,0.517
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.307,0.593
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.382,0.63
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.576,-0.223
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.365,-0.59,-0.186
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.521,-0.181
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.442,-0.144
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.287,-0.47,-0.13
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.244,-0.415,-0.081
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.151,-0.285,-0.051
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.13,-0.224,-0.043
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.104,-0.204,-0.01
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.106,-0.186,-0.034
+DeepAR,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.021,-0.18,0.12
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.065,-0.135,-0.002
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.057,-0.159,0.031
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.055,-0.162,0.048
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.055,-0.162,0.048
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.029,-0.136,0.053
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.718,0.049,-0.024,0.144
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.079,0.111
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.021,-0.092,0.109
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.156,0.001,0.294
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.103,0.314
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.211,-0.42,-0.066
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.188,-0.348,-0.071
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.32,-0.044
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.164,-0.331,-0.054
+PatchTST,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.074,-0.187,-0.002
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.121,-0.306,-0.013
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.112,-0.269,0.002
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.11,-0.299,0.025
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.11,-0.299,0.025
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.083,-0.21,0.019
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.571,0.282,1.0,-0.052,-0.168,0.023
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.026,-0.149,0.068
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.03,-0.165,0.071
+PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.112,-0.123,0.276
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,-0.015,0.309
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.18,-0.272,-0.092
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.158,-0.234,-0.084
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.132,-0.206,-0.059
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.134,-0.234,-0.045
+CatBoost,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.046,-0.152,0.067
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.092,-0.208,0.014
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.083,-0.165,0.003
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.081,-0.177,-0.003
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.081,-0.177,-0.003
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.055,-0.123,0.014
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.025,-0.125,0.073
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.026,-0.073,0.13
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.004,-0.023,0.015
+CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.135,-0.027,0.273
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.191,0.039,0.324
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.255,-0.099
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.216,-0.088
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.191,-0.064
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.13,-0.222,-0.042
+LightGBM,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.144,0.073
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.088,-0.202,0.019
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.079,-0.151,-0.006
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.077,-0.167,0.001
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.077,-0.167,0.001
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.051,-0.118,0.009
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.021,-0.123,0.084
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.029,-0.077,0.142
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.004,-0.015,0.023
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.138,-0.011,0.265
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.194,0.043,0.323
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.363,-0.516,-0.216
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.338,-0.518,-0.184
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.308,-0.473,-0.167
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.466,-0.171
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.209,-0.485,0.045
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.262,-0.423,-0.117
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.252,-0.393,-0.125
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.402,-0.131
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.402,-0.131
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.219,-0.37,-0.076
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.185,-0.417,-0.001
+Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.126,-0.382,0.11
+Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.156,-0.376,0.027
+Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.16,-0.361,0.011
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.003,0.057
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.046,-0.053,0.122
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.046,-0.075,0.154
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,0.031,0.454
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.169,0.472
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.251,0.523
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.586,-0.259
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.599,-0.225
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.527,-0.214
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.452,-0.183
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.317,-0.478,-0.156
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.273,-0.421,-0.131
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.06,0.003
-AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.024,-0.078,0.095
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.083,0.116
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.207,0.025,0.416
-AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.141,0.464
-AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.232,0.514
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.065,-0.036,0.134
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.643,-0.303
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.644,-0.257
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.59,-0.233
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.555,-0.267
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.51,-0.187
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.293,-0.583,-0.023
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.487,-0.228
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.495,-0.195
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.486,-0.228
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.47,-0.149
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.049,-0.139,0.05
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.025,-0.106,0.072
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.267,-0.458,-0.115
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.204,-0.446,0.015
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.236,-0.479,-0.041
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.241,-0.476,-0.045
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.154,0.035
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.0,-0.126,0.117
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,-0.039,0.409
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.168,0.426
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.476
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.67,-0.251
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.67,-0.233
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.605,-0.209
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.517,-0.192
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.349,-0.549,-0.155
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.476,-0.161
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.048,-0.182,0.07
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.024,-0.132,0.076
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.0,-0.132,0.112
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,0.007,0.358
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.304,0.124,0.431
-AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.225,0.483
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.795,-1.442,-0.353
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.377,-0.314
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.355,-0.29
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.212,-0.263
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.661,-1.263,-0.224
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-1.069,-0.251
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.291,-0.831,-0.032
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.261,-0.713,-0.025
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.693,0.037
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.558,-0.007
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.143,-0.329,0.392
-AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,-0.164,0.446
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.094,-1.716,-0.672
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.055,-1.74,-0.6
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.625,-0.609
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.494,-0.515
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.937,-1.509,-0.564
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.455,-0.443
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.892,-0.203
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.866,-0.164
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.742,-0.202
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.436,-0.759,-0.141
-Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.166,-0.644,0.247
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.059,0.132
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.316,-2.005,-0.833
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.273,-2.03,-0.758
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.905,-0.772
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.137,-1.766,-0.692
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-1.769,-0.735
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.071,-1.702,-0.619
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-1.096,-0.335
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-1.057,-0.301
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.907,-0.322
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.589,-0.934,-0.291
-Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.29,-0.804,0.141
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.106,-0.152,-0.063
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv

@@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.013,0.065
 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.014,0.072
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.054,0.147
-Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,0.014,0.086
+Chronos-2,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.122,0.025,0.267
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.044,0.129
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.132,0.051,0.216
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.058,0.168
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.044,0.13
+Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.067,0.383
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.123,0.197
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.263,0.484
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.284,0.5
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.247,0.444
+Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.255,0.366
+Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.311,0.26,0.36
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.347,0.528
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.369,0.738
-Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.861,0.529,0.958
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.715,0.819
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.729,0.831
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.07,0.013
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.025,0.047
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.037,0.111
-TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.025,0.015,0.036
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.101,-0.006,0.24
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.004,0.105
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.111,0.022,0.187
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.042,0.134
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.005,0.106
+TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.054,0.359
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.104,0.173
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.245,0.478
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.27,0.494
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.237,0.43
+TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.247,0.342
+TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.249,0.333
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.315,0.529
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.351,0.739
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.858,0.504,0.958
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.703,0.819
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.781,0.718,0.829
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.078,-0.015
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.049,0.024
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.063,0.005,0.121
-TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156
+TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.016,0.046
+TiRex,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.023,0.237
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.026,0.064
+TiRex,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.098,0.032,0.162
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.075,0.013,0.139
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.044,0.026,0.064
+TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156
+TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.052,0.357
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.081,0.169
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.233,0.47
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.254,0.486
+TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.218,0.429
+TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.221,0.347
+TiRex,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.217,0.342
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.325,0.511
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.347,0.73
-TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.857,0.501,0.957
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.699,0.814
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.71,0.827
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.108,-0.173,-0.057
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.125,-0.038
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.067,-0.138,-0.005
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.05,-0.094,-0.014
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.037,-0.015
+FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.049,0.016
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.078,-0.035,0.221
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.032,-0.019,0.076
+FlowState,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.002,0.167
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.021,0.112
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.123
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.123
+FlowState,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.18,0.027,0.345
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.115,0.081,0.148
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.225,0.413
+FlowState,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.223,0.327
+FlowState,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.221,0.321
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.304,0.514
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.139,-0.364,-0.026
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.113,-0.315,0.006
+TFT,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.097,-0.311,0.022
+TFT,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.084,-0.283,0.034
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.049,-0.268,0.085
+TFT,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.149,0.139
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.142,0.075
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.221,0.136
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.221,0.136
+TFT,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.111,0.037,0.199
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,-0.101,0.132
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.275,0.102,0.414
+TFT,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.218,0.115,0.296
+TFT,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.215,0.104,0.294
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.241,0.486
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.149,-0.046
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.118,-0.004
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.068,-0.027
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.033,-0.083,0.019
+Toto-1.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.047,-0.093,0.211
+Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.057,-0.003,0.114
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.033,-0.05,0.11
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.037,0.12
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.037,0.12
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.152,0.015,0.332
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.086,0.022,0.142
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.309,0.177,0.408
+Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.172,0.326
+Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.165,0.322
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.296,0.483
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.152,-0.275,-0.053
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.125,-0.231,-0.023
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.109,-0.193,-0.033
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.096,-0.2,0.002
+DeepAR,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.162,0.13
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.061,-0.128,0.003
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.026,-0.144,0.07
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.026,-0.155,0.105
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.026,-0.155,0.105
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.101,-0.011,0.261
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.03,-0.076,0.115
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.267,0.087,0.403
+DeepAR,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.21,0.115,0.289
+DeepAR,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.207,0.105,0.288
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.239,0.468
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.202,-0.061
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.154,-0.044
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.081,-0.161,-0.013
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.126,-0.022
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.081,0.124
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.034,-0.124,0.047
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.025,-0.075,0.126
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.103,0.057
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.044,0.094
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.209,0.427
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.236,0.448
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.279,0.482
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.545,0.314,0.713
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.853,0.488,0.957
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.749,0.689,0.798
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.706,0.81
-Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052
-Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045
-Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05
-Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036
-Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428
-Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707
-Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.0,-0.087,0.086
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.0,-0.087,0.086
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.123,-0.021,0.271
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,0.021,0.093
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.182,0.383
+TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.167,0.289
+TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.171,0.281
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.276,0.476
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05
-Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.14,-0.021
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.158,0.181
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.035,-0.136,0.036
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.025,-0.117,0.134
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.0,-0.094,0.08
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036
+Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.123,-0.075,0.313
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.176,0.361
+Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.167,0.293
+Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.166,0.286
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.149,-0.046
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.118,-0.005
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.046,-0.068,-0.027
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.061,0.093
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12
-Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.142
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.448
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.362,0.222,0.465
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.296,0.483
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.316,0.717
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.852,0.474,0.956
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.754,0.681,0.808
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.693,0.821
+Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052
+Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045
+Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.14,-0.021
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.158,0.181
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.035,-0.136,0.036
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.025,-0.117,0.134
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.0,-0.094,0.08
+Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.123,-0.075,0.313
+Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102
+Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.176,0.361
+Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.167,0.293
+Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.166,0.286
+Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.62,-0.072
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.56,-0.057
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.555,-0.055
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.219,-0.527,-0.028
+PatchTST,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.124,-0.249,-0.038
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.18,-0.497,-0.015
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.112,-0.353,0.011
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.141,-0.372,0.021
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.141,-0.456,0.07
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.141,-0.456,0.07
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.079,-0.325,0.091
+PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.185,-0.072,0.38
+PatchTST,CatBoost,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.121,-0.071,0.255
+PatchTST,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.118,-0.089,0.255
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.29,0.12,0.434
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.246,-0.141
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.16,-0.209,-0.116
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.204,-0.088
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.104,-0.046
-Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.13,-0.173,-0.088
+Sundial-Base,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.152,0.092
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.094,-0.166,-0.023
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.031,-0.13,0.071
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.102,-0.021
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.093,-0.165,-0.022
+Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.073,-0.1,0.245
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.272,0.151,0.385
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.173,0.402
+Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.245,0.13,0.336
+Sundial-Base,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.133,0.232
+Sundial-Base,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.136,0.228
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.232,0.438
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.513,0.269,0.689
-Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.843,0.442,0.955
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.666,0.784
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.94,-0.357
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.914,-0.324
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.886,-0.304
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.472,-0.745,-0.264
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.502,-0.811,-0.236
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.374,-0.625,-0.178
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.799,-0.328
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.754,-0.311
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.752,-0.279
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.703,-0.29
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.38,-0.707,-0.114
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.448,-0.689,-0.215
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.365,-0.676,-0.095
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.621,-0.223
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.566,-0.214
+AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.566,-0.214
+AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.227,-0.612,0.067
+AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.324,-0.507,-0.149
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.714,1.0,0.041,0.015,0.069
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.096,-0.069,0.206
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.33,0.113,0.521
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.791,0.274,0.938
-AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.546,0.695
-AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.571,0.713
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.701,-0.999,-0.397
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.976,-0.371
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.638,-0.945,-0.341
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.813,-0.309
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.566,-0.87,-0.285
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.433,-0.671,-0.209
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.286,-0.043,-0.074,-0.015
-Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.057,-0.109,0.167
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.084,0.495
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.256,0.936
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.532,0.676
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.556,0.696
+AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.079,-0.283,0.109
+AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.083,-0.275,0.102
+AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.128,-0.03,0.229
+CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.457,-0.578,-0.342
+CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.52,-0.328
+CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.403,-0.531,-0.283
+CatBoost,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.387,-0.486,-0.287
+CatBoost,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.279,-0.421,-0.13
+CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.483,-0.208
+CatBoost,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.265,-0.406,-0.13
+CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.406,-0.201
+CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.415,-0.2
+CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.415,-0.2
+CatBoost,PatchTST,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.138,-0.342,0.066
+CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.302,-0.154
+CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.073,-0.122,0.221
+CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.004,-0.023,0.015
+CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.192,0.01,0.345
+LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.451,-0.563,-0.351
+LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.499,-0.332
+LightGBM,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.521,-0.277
+LightGBM,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.474,-0.284
+LightGBM,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.274,-0.417,-0.116
+LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.474,-0.197
+LightGBM,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.26,-0.404,-0.117
+LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.293,-0.391,-0.206
+LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.293,-0.401,-0.199
+LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.293,-0.401,-0.199
+LightGBM,PatchTST,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.133,-0.342,0.082
+LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.295,-0.158
+LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.077,-0.114,0.216
+LightGBM,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.004,-0.015,0.023
+LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.195,0.012,0.346
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.803,-1.12,-0.532
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.122,-0.461
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.737,-1.043,-0.481
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.628,-0.932,-0.386
-Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.717,-1.057,-0.436
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.946,-0.318
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.934,-0.421
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.879,-0.314
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.908,-0.381
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.933,-0.421
+Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.408,-0.765,-0.137
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.778,-0.301
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.106,-0.26,0.065
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.06,-0.2,0.098
+Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.147,-0.298,0.03
+Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.238,-0.526,-0.01
+Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.242,-0.529,-0.012
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.26,0.012,0.46
-Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.778,0.206,0.936
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.53,0.64
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.614,0.55,0.664
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.436,-2.82,-0.586
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.38,-2.827,-0.54
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.346,-2.701,-0.532
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.199,-2.482,-0.457
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.244,-2.536,-0.463
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.052,-2.216,-0.369
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.494,-1.086,-0.127
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.432,-0.982,-0.092
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.351,-0.851,-0.012
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.709,0.014,0.907
-AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.276,0.575
-AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.316,0.596
-AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.206,-22.787,-1.121
-AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.041,-22.595,-1.017
-AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.978,-22.199,-1.005
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.785,-22.0,-0.955
-AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789
-AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.741,-21.621,-0.902
-AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.386,-21.067,-0.793
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.792,-15.18,-0.376
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-14.743,-0.344
-AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.515,-14.714,-0.259
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.44,-9.777,-0.015
-AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.172,-7.111,0.408
-AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.082,-6.896,0.433
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.415,-4.522,-2.508
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.313,-4.533,-2.371
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.252,-4.38,-2.317
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.985,-3.944,-2.212
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.067,-4.197,-2.134
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.72,-3.631,-1.992
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.284,-1.203
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.596,-2.091,-1.136
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-1.777,-1.126
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.353,-0.382
-Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.54,-0.69,0.877
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-4.925,-2.692
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.563,-4.855,-2.551
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.499,-4.779,-2.453
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.216,-4.258,-2.402
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.303,-4.59,-2.253
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.935,-3.9,-2.148
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.864,-2.486,-1.33
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.747,-2.291,-1.255
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.59,-1.972,-1.221
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.918,-1.476,-0.462
-Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.52,-0.765,0.873
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,32.667973146499854,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,85.71428571428574,29.26035003209091,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,75.0,28.93605729975306,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571429,29.39415793791812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,65.71428571428571,27.758201124904257,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,27.39923273556282,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0
-Sundial-Base,64.28571428571426,27.294413131182793,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,17.869279200778998,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0
-TabPFN-TS,44.28571428571429,23.16876937964092,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,41.42857142857142,21.542038855355507,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,28.571428571428577,13.898849494465237,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0
-AutoETS,25.714285714285722,-29.62269544506979,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0
-Naive,20.0,7.79560161047943,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0
-Drift,12.85714285714286,4.07870004962435,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,8.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,93.0,32.66797317900995,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,88.00000000000001,29.260350065108376,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,81.0,29.357226912555344,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,80.5,28.93605738519158,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,78.0,29.394157929053712,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,72.50000000000001,27.399232776718353,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0
+Sundial-Base,72.0,27.294413166287423,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,72.0,27.802663844137786,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,60.999999999999986,23.420687735560985,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,57.999999999999986,23.98149756470208,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,53.99999999999999,21.542038924284434,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,41.99999999999999,17.97726241921238,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,33.0,-29.622695283539358,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0
+TFT,26.000000000000007,11.739357763049185,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0
+Naive,25.999999999999996,7.795601696116828,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,24.000000000000004,9.449688890714715,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0
+Drift,20.0,4.078700196776586,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,20.0,4.1721599099919455,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,18.0,4.184526702220593,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,17.0,3.384538751976529,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,14.000000000000002,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,40.14261348186017,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,88.57142857142858,37.438763337724154,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,77.14285714285715,37.18832201208502,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,75.00000000000001,36.03582794812101,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,67.85714285714286,34.853090715125255,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0
-Toto-1.0,67.14285714285715,35.98014019395901,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,59.999999999999986,32.14384784602691,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,52.85714285714286,30.909915121590082,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,13.94260028599177,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0
-AutoARIMA,38.57142857142858,17.778704714011372,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0
-AutoETS,27.142857142857153,-136.42889695356527,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,20.0,-2.8417921456300954,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,20.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0
-Naive,12.85714285714286,-23.56398392435097,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0
-Drift,4.2857142857142865,-28.213326844738162,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,94.0,40.14261361598851,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,91.00000000000001,37.43876342889425,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,82.0,37.188322050437485,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,80.5,36.03582808206656,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,80.0,36.31166826953211,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,74.5,34.85309081790271,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0
+Toto-1.0,74.0,35.99499337037837,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,70.0,32.757599647708304,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,61.999999999999986,30.90991527640704,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,48.999999999999986,17.231323121576647,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,48.0,22.423106139028192,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0
+TFT,43.00000000000001,18.511138237688506,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,39.0,17.09711611460085,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,34.0,9.609592105853038,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,28.999999999999996,-136.42889638840893,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,24.000000000000004,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,24.000000000000004,-2.841792105310592,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,19.0,-6.491295800307162,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,19.0,-6.505040508588555,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0
+Naive,10.0,-23.56398425913284,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0
+Drift,4.0,-28.21332719128542,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,87.14285714285714,47.03832907322194,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,81.42857142857144,45.265501615714086,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,80.0,45.61982323609455,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,75.71428571428572,45.23435046646812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,73.57142857142857,44.27099700478807,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,66.42857142857143,43.560110598131054,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,57.14285714285714,41.536751954528484,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,42.85714285714287,37.25192023085951,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,42.857142857142854,32.159160649999954,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,41.428571428571445,24.4398588876512,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0
-AutoETS,32.85714285714286,-7.089562721947629,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0
-Naive,24.28571428571429,25.36480685722543,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,21.428571428571427,2.7732156741662517,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0
-Drift,12.857142857142856,15.77773764677779,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,88.00000000000001,47.03832863128653,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,85.00000000000001,45.94421147950074,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,84.00000000000001,45.26550169523424,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,83.0,45.658876884431066,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,78.0,45.234350223405905,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,77.5,44.270996715968245,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,73.5,43.560110317907345,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,68.0,42.24241790735197,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,55.999999999999986,36.39656206472499,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,53.99999999999998,37.25191993036196,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,47.99999999999998,32.15916008390624,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
+TFT,39.0,31.89215730204118,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,38.0,32.26789204762996,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,35.0,-7.089563361203255,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,35.0,30.485156307041137,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,27.000000000000007,-5.351235687949107,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0
+Naive,24.0,25.364806013828144,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,16.0,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0
+Drift,15.0,15.777737575686047,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,13.999999999999998,9.204507505376158,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,12.000000000000002,-21.610796222594896,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,22 @@
 model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
-Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,65.09181820346713,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,65.02250890387694,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,80.00000000000001,64.38827870406145,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0
-TiRex,80.0,63.90155569021483,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0
-Chronos-Bolt,75.0,63.277941068455476,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,72.14285714285714,62.94483721241358,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,62.85714285714283,62.612284025823264,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,48.57142857142857,52.74866339373276,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,42.85714285714287,13.563254966732108,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0
-AutoARIMA,40.0,21.289551980691435,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0
-AutoETS,25.71428571428572,-162.51813043287368,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,25.71428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,15.714285714285717,-21.431026747836324,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0
-Naive,10.0,-59.16477242087295,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0
-Drift,2.857142857142857,-65.48141501493944,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,87.00000000000001,65.46785431424527,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-2,85.99999999999997,65.09181820451573,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0
+TimesFM-2.5,85.0,65.02250890932473,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,82.99999999999999,63.901555686088926,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,82.0,64.33412565306647,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,78.49999999999999,63.27794107878868,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,76.49999999999999,62.94483721709532,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0
+TabPFN-TS,68.0,62.22591860898127,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0
+Sundial-Base,51.99999999999999,52.74866339515212,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,50.99999999999999,56.14683480931129,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0
+TFT,46.0,54.31239646459889,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,42.00000000000001,53.40506481164482,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0
+AutoARIMA,42.00000000000001,26.636130811588664,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0
+Stat. Ensemble,41.0,10.0322967065957,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0
+CatBoost,27.999999999999996,28.559039675458386,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0
+Seasonal Naive,26.0,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0
+AutoETS,26.0,-162.5181303956725,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0
+LightGBM,20.0,4.312518151888689,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0
+AutoTheta,19.000000000000004,-21.431026745629268,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0
+Naive,8.0,-59.16477242026188,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0
+Drift,3.0000000000000004,-65.48141502161853,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv

@@ -1,226 +1,257 @@
 model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.005,0.089
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.047,-0.008,0.1
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.053,0.015,0.087
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.096
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.024,0.124
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.024,0.118
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.023,0.124
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.027,0.116
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.066,0.314
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.076,0.155
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.121,0.066,0.172
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.082,0.138
 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.1,0.196
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.121,0.333
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.121,0.232
 Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.137,0.781
 Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.18,0.35
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.207,0.379
+Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.222,0.251
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.263,0.388
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.005
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.061,0.046
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.016,0.023
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.053,0.035
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.028,0.066
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.026,0.004,0.054
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.028,0.065
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,-0.0,0.055
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.139,0.038,0.264
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.058,0.112
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.076,0.021,0.127
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.038,0.113
 TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.098,0.035,0.158
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.272
+TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.103,0.17
 TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.454,0.08,0.77
 TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.143,0.307
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.174,0.336
+TiRex,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.154,0.242
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.222,0.364
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.049,-0.111,0.008
+FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.049,0.058
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.045,0.063
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.036,0.025
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.007,0.071
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.031,0.061
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.028,-0.018,0.084
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.078,0.01,0.136
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.071,0.008,0.13
+FlowState,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.1,0.044,0.14
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.089,0.2
+FlowState,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.455,0.085,0.76
+FlowState,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.186,0.282
+FlowState,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.15,0.244
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.19,0.386
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.095,-0.016
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.024,0.015
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.067,0.043
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.064,0.045
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.034,0.074
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.021,0.0,0.042
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.035,0.074
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.002,0.045
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.135,0.035,0.262
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.054,0.096
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.072,0.022,0.115
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.04,0.092
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.038,0.147
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.106,0.27
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.106,0.161
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.452,0.092,0.768
 Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.131,0.311
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.165,0.342
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.159,0.23
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.231,0.351
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.106,0.001
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.037,0.05
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.025,0.035
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.06
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,0.004,0.038
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.068
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,0.003,0.038
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.029,0.08
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.14,0.001,0.301
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.032,0.13
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.078,-0.01,0.138
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.071,0.019,0.124
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.1,0.026,0.153
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.075,0.308
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.075,0.2
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.455,0.061,0.769
 TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.178,0.286
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.206,0.317
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.146,0.241
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.196,0.38
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.141,-0.025
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.07,0.027
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.017,-0.08,0.033
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.039,-0.004
-Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.05,0.053
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.063,0.06
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.12,-0.031,0.28
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.009,0.111
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.079,-0.01,0.149
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.045,0.292
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.443,0.023,0.768
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.157,0.276
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.185,0.308
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.18,0.365
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.057,-0.004
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.076,0.007
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.022,-0.044,0.0
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.072,0.016
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.056,0.048
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.057,0.048
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.02,0.027
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.116,0.011,0.247
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.055,0.015,0.089
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.052,-0.001,0.095
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.045,0.005,0.088
 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.023,0.127
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.157,0.091,0.259
+Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.115,0.091,0.143
 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.44,0.072,0.758
 Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.282
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.165,0.314
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.177,0.135,0.228
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.192,0.348
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.072,-0.141,-0.024
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.07,0.028
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.065,0.03
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.016,-0.08,0.034
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.039,-0.004
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.05,0.054
+Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.062,0.061
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,-0.044,0.122
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,-0.01,0.105
+Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.08,-0.01,0.149
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.12,0.045,0.185
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.443,0.023,0.768
+Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.158,0.276
+Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.114,0.225
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.18,0.366
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.131,-0.028
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.028,-0.058,0.0
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.029,-0.092,0.018
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.047,0.002
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.028
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.063,0.059
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.027,0.02
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.065,0.059
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.115,0.028,0.239
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.054,0.012,0.097
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.051,0.02,0.078
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.044,-0.001,0.091
 Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.031,0.114
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.091,0.251
+Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.089,0.135
 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.439,0.081,0.757
 Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.125,0.295
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.155,0.324
+Sundial-Base,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.176,0.138,0.215
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.344
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.459,-0.071
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.161,-0.359,-0.039
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.156,-0.354,-0.036
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.163,-0.431,-0.001
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.137,-0.389,0.03
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.131,-0.328,-0.011
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.13,-0.314,-0.029
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.137,-0.208,-0.071
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.083,-0.146,-0.021
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.084,-0.157,-0.01
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.131,-0.023
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.085,-0.16,0.01
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.106,0.001
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.139,0.042
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.084,-0.02
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.069,-0.271,0.059
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.047,-0.246,0.043
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.089
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.366,-0.049,0.726
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.109,-0.149,0.275
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.144,-0.11,0.307
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.179,0.074,0.286
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.183,-0.082
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.126,-0.062
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.106,-0.057
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.149,-0.033
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.009
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.058,-0.097,-0.016
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.057,-0.108,-0.012
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.065,-0.063,0.213
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.079,0.06
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.01,0.043
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,0.02,0.102
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.409,0.063,0.736
+Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.069,0.275
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.09,0.173
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.151,0.311
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.129,-0.16,-0.089
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.128,-0.04
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.076,-0.149,-0.008
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.101,-0.041
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.077,-0.141,-0.019
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.047,-0.097,-0.005
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.117,0.01
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.046,-0.101,0.001
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.064,0.073
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.021,-0.056,0.092
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.108,0.017,0.215
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.407,0.014,0.752
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.059,0.257
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.09,0.29
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.169,0.289
+TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.031,-0.039,0.097
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.017,0.126
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.414,0.029,0.754
+TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.176,0.066,0.268
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.105,0.178
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.181,0.294
 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.243,-0.112
 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.109,-0.187,-0.036
+AutoTheta,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.111,-0.162,-0.046
 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.173,-0.04
 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.111,-0.18,-0.027
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.086,-0.175,0.01
 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.146,-0.024
+AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.087,-0.176,0.01
 AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.128,-0.032
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.045,-0.044,0.197
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.021,-0.101,0.053
+AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.044,0.01
+AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.032,-0.107,0.038
 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.089,-0.018,0.224
+AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.018,0.103
 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.395,0.04,0.727
 AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.059,0.244
-AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.096,0.277
+AutoTheta,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.07,0.141
 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.115,0.304
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.5,-0.138
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.374,-0.115
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.37,-0.118
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.445,-0.081
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.412,-0.048
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.186,-0.349,-0.1
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.184,-0.335,-0.1
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.048,-0.098,0.001
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.121,-0.274,-0.017
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.289,0.018
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.218,-0.302,-0.138
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.16,-0.205,-0.115
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.25,-0.098
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.191,-0.118
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.249,-0.081
+AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.13,-0.166,-0.1
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.136,-0.227,-0.047
+AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.157,-0.098
+AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.114,-0.02
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.145,-0.017
+AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.115,0.018
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.336,-0.108,0.712
-AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,-0.165,0.208
-AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.102,-0.112,0.239
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.139,0.042,0.235
+AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.367,-0.021,0.723
+AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.11,-0.006,0.208
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.071,0.006,0.131
+AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.106,0.255
 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.925,-3.56,-0.159
 AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.832,-3.354,-0.087
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.835,-3.164,-0.092
 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.824,-3.308,-0.102
 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.836,-3.32,-0.065
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.794,-3.308,-0.023
 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.785,-3.132,-0.077
+AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.795,-3.312,-0.023
 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.783,-3.107,-0.088
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.578,-2.653,0.047
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.687,-3.038,-0.014
+AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.693,-2.794,-0.067
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.705,-3.06,-0.03
 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.652,-2.668,-0.041
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.505,-2.472,0.097
+AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.58,-2.614,0.02
 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 AutoETS,Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.406,-2.121,0.194
-AutoETS,Drift,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.351,-2.001,0.23
+AutoETS,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.469,-2.405,0.098
 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.296,-2.14,0.211
 Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.538,-0.219
 Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166
+Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.393,-0.228
 Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.451,-0.151
 Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.4,-0.217
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.381,-0.186
 Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.392,-0.151
+Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.382,-0.188
 Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.419,-0.143
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.123,-0.379,0.13
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.345,-0.063
+Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.379,-0.074
+Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.365,-0.071
 Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.322,-0.063
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.263,0.142
+Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.124,-0.263,0.006
 Naive,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.289,-0.24,0.68
 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.026,0.046
+Naive,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.045,-0.178,0.071
 Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.078,-0.115,0.244
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.61,-0.261
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.506,-0.211
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.519,-0.198
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.465,-0.26
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.445,-0.227
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.458,-0.198
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.319,-0.48,-0.183
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.168,-0.443,0.099
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.408,-0.099
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.384,-0.106
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.114,-0.314,0.101
-Drift,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.26,-0.298,0.667
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.048,-0.027
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.168,0.219
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.336,-0.285
+TFT,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.318,-0.181
+TFT,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.249,-0.322,-0.176
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.299,-0.189
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.318,-0.171
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.295,-0.156
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.222,-0.29,-0.129
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.214,-0.274,-0.16
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.209,-0.099
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.216,-0.118
+TFT,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.125,-0.164,-0.075
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.076,-0.151,-0.006
+TFT,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.319,-0.108,0.706
+TFT,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.043,-0.076,0.151
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.033,0.197
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.633,-0.357
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.572,-0.285
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.628,-0.234
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.541,-0.3
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.612,-0.244
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.384,-0.575,-0.22
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.534,-0.238
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.577,-0.22
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.525,-0.251
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.218,-0.4,-0.08
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.406,-0.203
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.451,-0.178
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.417,-0.221
 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.437,-0.13
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.161,-0.307,-0.044
+Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.342,-0.118
 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.229,-0.268,0.682
 Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.085,-0.323,0.104
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.043,-0.28,0.144
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.133,-0.246,-0.034
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0

tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv

@@ -3,224 +3,255 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.001,0.081
 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.001,0.095
 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.122
+Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.007,0.111
+Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.122
 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.081,0.019,0.139
-Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.021,0.121
-Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.143
+Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.11,0.078,0.134
 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.097,0.169
-Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.141,0.433
-Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.161,0.393
+Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.141,0.391
+Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.161,0.29
+Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.244,0.286
+Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.207,0.342
 Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.259,0.947
-Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.258,0.535
+Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.28,0.396
 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.327,0.459
-Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.431,0.6
-Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.447,0.617
 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.089,0.001
 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.048,0.043
 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.007,0.049
+TiRex,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.036,0.059
+TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.026,0.07
 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.066
-TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.025,0.069
-TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.056,0.109
+TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.07,0.036,0.109
 TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.065,0.123
-TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.126,0.395
-TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.146,0.351
+TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.244,0.109,0.36
+TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.139,0.239
+TiRex,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.186,0.279
+TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.146,0.342
 TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.217,0.947
-TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.245,0.505
+TiRex,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.235,0.388
 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.434
-TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.414,0.575
-TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.429,0.592
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.105,0.001
 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.045,0.045
 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.092
+TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.01,0.046
+TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,0.002,0.036
 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.101
-TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,0.003,0.034
-TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.029,0.118
+TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,0.015,0.111
 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.045,0.13
-TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.27,0.095,0.415
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.111,0.38
+TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.241,0.087,0.364
+TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.111,0.261
+TimesFM-2.5,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.177,0.277
+TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.177,0.332
 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.709,0.198,0.947
-TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.215,0.523
+TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.207,0.391
 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.265,0.447
-TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.396,0.574
-TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.413,0.592
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.011
 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.052,0.007
 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.101,0.049
 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.091,0.054
+Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.079,0.075
 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,0.0,0.036
-Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.078,0.075
-Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.09
+Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,-0.008,0.093
 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.025,0.114
-Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.129,0.366
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.148,0.314
+Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.11,0.341
+Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.141,0.216
+Chronos-Bolt,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.149,0.276
+Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.105,0.341
 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.221,0.947
-Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.249,0.485
+Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.292,0.226,0.375
 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.291,0.411
-Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.406,0.562
-Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.422,0.579
+FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.007
+FlowState,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.062,0.035
+FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.048,0.01
+FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.057,0.083
+FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.045,0.044
+FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.025,0.086
+FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.053,0.002,0.106
+FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.047,0.115
+FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.231,0.098,0.344
+FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.111,0.246
+FlowState,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.177,0.258
+FlowState,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.175,0.319
+FlowState,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.209,0.947
+FlowState,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.2,0.386
+FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.261,0.444
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.02
+Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.075,0.025
+Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.037,-0.002
+Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.081,0.073
+Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.046,0.043
+Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.054,0.084
+Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.019,0.099
+Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.014,0.117
+Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.227,0.053,0.357
+Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.175,0.081,0.251
+Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.152,0.265
+Toto-1.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.149,0.321
+Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.703,0.168,0.947
+Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.292,0.194,0.381
+Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.24,0.437
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.088,-0.161,-0.019
 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.07,-0.011
 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.112,0.024
 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.037,0.0
+Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.023,-0.095,0.025
+Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.091,0.051
 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.09,0.05
-Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.04,-0.002,0.081
+Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.031,-0.023,0.085
 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.1
-Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.243,0.114,0.353
-Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.208,0.128,0.307
+Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.213,0.088,0.32
+Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.12,0.192
+Moirai-2.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.14,0.263
+Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.097,0.331
 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.201,0.947
-Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.232,0.47
+Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.198,0.369
 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.271,0.409
-Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.396,0.548
-Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.412,0.566
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.138,-0.021
-Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.074,0.024
-Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.035,-0.003
-Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.081,0.073
-Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.053,0.083
-Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.106
-Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.015,0.116
-Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.256,0.07,0.405
-Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.221,0.086,0.367
-Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.703,0.17,0.947
-Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.377,0.192,0.514
-Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.241,0.436
-Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.38,0.569
-Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.398,0.588
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.167,-0.083
-TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.123,-0.06
-TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.134,-0.03
-TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.099,-0.016
-TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.088,0.002
-TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.06,-0.118,0.002
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.155,-0.085
+TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.123,-0.037
+TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.125,-0.015
+TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.102,0.008
+TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.056,-0.119,-0.002
+TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.11,0.019
+TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.032,-0.093,0.023
 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.034,0.06
-TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.212,0.042,0.347
-TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.063,0.298
-TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.689,0.159,0.945
-TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.182,0.468
-TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.242,0.372
-TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.357,0.535
-TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.375,0.554
+TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,-0.034,0.065
+TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.188,0.042,0.312
+TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.063,0.194
+TabPFN-TS,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.135,0.222
+TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.093,0.281
+TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.691,0.17,0.944
+TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.17,0.345
+TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.245,0.386
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.204,-0.107
 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.14,-0.07
 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.1,-0.149,-0.047
 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.129,-0.025
+Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.13,-0.049
+Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.133,-0.015
 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.111,-0.017
-Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.131,-0.016
-Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.063,0.033
+Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.07,0.032
 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.197,0.033,0.333
-Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.055,0.285
+Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.165,0.033,0.279
+Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.055,0.16
+Sundial-Base,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.152,0.118,0.187
+Sundial-Base,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.082,0.254
 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.688,0.16,0.945
-Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.165,0.457
+Sundial-Base,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.157,0.315
 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.223,0.39
-Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.364,0.517
-Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.382,0.539
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.765,-0.164
-Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.653,-0.145
-Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.37,-0.71,-0.105
-Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.577,-0.148
-Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.321,-0.545,-0.129
-Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.344,-0.681,-0.075
-Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.268,-0.532,-0.044
-Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.246,-0.5,-0.035
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.642,-0.164
+Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.323,-0.563,-0.122
+Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.318,-0.571,-0.095
+Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.294,-0.517,-0.124
+Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.3,-0.524,-0.108
+Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.293,-0.556,-0.056
+Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.27,-0.472,-0.096
+Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.231,-0.454,-0.044
+Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.198,-0.387,-0.035
 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.047,-0.183,0.047
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.089,0.941
-Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.118,0.21
-Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.139,-0.004,0.262
-Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.201,0.379
-Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.224,0.406
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.647,-0.191
-AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.54,-0.171
-AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.612,-0.125
-AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.459,-0.173
-AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.262,-0.444,-0.147
-AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.284,-0.579,-0.094
-AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.425,-0.067
-AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.399,-0.059
-AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.045,-0.049,0.155
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.067,-0.189,0.034
+Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.016,-0.209,0.146
+Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.246,0.206
+Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.658,0.124,0.942
+Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.084,-0.121,0.236
+Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.172,0.038,0.268
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.409,-0.191
+AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.24,-0.314,-0.161
+AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.235,-0.354,-0.125
+AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.275,-0.165
+AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.218,-0.327,-0.125
+AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.212,-0.335,-0.088
+AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.191,-0.237,-0.136
+AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.24,-0.067
+AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.191,-0.059
+AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.063,-0.035,0.159
 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.642,0.062,0.941
-AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.201,0.087,0.317
-AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.178,0.076,0.269
-AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.21,0.441
-AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.238,0.463
+AutoARIMA,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.048,-0.038,0.127
+AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.064,-0.086,0.187
+AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.662,0.092,0.943
+AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.142,0.036,0.254
+AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.153,0.289
+TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.4,-0.323
+TFT,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.386,-0.229
+TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.383,-0.215
+TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.274,-0.381,-0.176
+TFT,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.348,-0.215
+TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.273,-0.36,-0.179
+TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.357,-0.163
+TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.286,-0.156
+TFT,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.179,-0.23,-0.134
+TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.015,-0.172,0.173
+TFT,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.05,-0.145,0.036
+TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+TFT,PatchTST,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.061,0.087
+TFT,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.641,-0.011,0.94
+TFT,DeepAR,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.098,0.018,0.178
+TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.089,0.275
+PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.52,-0.261
+PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.52,-0.171
+PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.496,-0.215
+PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.517,-0.117
+PatchTST,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.468,-0.212
+PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.295,-0.474,-0.176
+PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.273,-0.494,-0.108
+PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.392,-0.102
+PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.341,-0.089
+PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.259,0.197
+PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.069,-0.231,0.079
+PatchTST,TFT,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.096,0.057
+PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+PatchTST,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.637,-0.086,0.939
+PatchTST,DeepAR,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.083,-0.009,0.199
+PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.171,0.003,0.313
 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.538,-17.795,-0.35
 AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.44,-17.904,-0.278
 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.436,-17.805,-0.247
 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.391,-17.776,-0.283
+AutoETS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.439,-17.747,-0.264
+AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.365,-17.71,-0.203
 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.363,-17.776,-0.252
-AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.366,-17.702,-0.205
-AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.219,-17.076,-0.19
+AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.237,-17.009,-0.205
 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.207,-17.119,-0.19
-AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-15.878,-0.098
-AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.791,-15.965,-0.066
+AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.926,-16.237,-0.142
+AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.958,-16.44,-0.102
+AutoETS,TFT,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.788,-15.578,0.01
+AutoETS,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-1.753,-15.268,0.079
 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.464,-14.889,0.062
+AutoETS,DeepAR,0.4,0.0,0.8,-1.503,-14.764,0.114
 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.364,-14.138,0.138
-AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.141,-13.92,0.256
-AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.083,-13.686,0.286
-AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.718,-1.152,-0.347
-AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.644,-1.02,-0.324
-AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-1.095,-0.274
-AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.941,-0.332
-AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.887,-0.303
-AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.606,-1.056,-0.237
-AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.516,-0.879,-0.222
-AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.489,-0.842,-0.197
-AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.265,-0.134
-AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.251,-0.464,-0.095
-AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.594,-0.066,0.937
-AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.028,-0.202,0.12
-AutoTheta,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.168,0.021,0.281
-AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.198,0.049,0.314
+DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.656,-0.388
+DeepAR,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.445,-0.635,-0.307
+DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.439,-0.641,-0.262
+DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.413,-0.599,-0.292
+DeepAR,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.419,-0.628,-0.25
+DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.412,-0.616,-0.241
+DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.387,-0.586,-0.247
+DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.526,-0.205
+DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.308,-0.459,-0.187
+DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.092,-0.308,0.108
+DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.165,-0.34,-0.037
+DeepAR,TFT,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.109,-0.216,-0.018
+DeepAR,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.09,-0.248,0.009
+DeepAR,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.601,-0.129,0.937
+DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
+DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.096,-0.021,0.206
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.848,-0.486
 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.768,-0.404
 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.807,-0.36
 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.563,-0.699,-0.411
+Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.797,-0.352
+Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.775,-0.315
 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.692,-0.371
-Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.773,-0.317
-Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.593,-0.319
+Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.63,-0.324
 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.639,-0.286
-Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.162,-0.355,0.004
-Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.216,-0.368,-0.082
+Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.208,-0.366,-0.039
+Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.289,-0.407,-0.181
+Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.227,-0.379,-0.097
+Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.206,-0.456,-0.003
 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.577,-0.16,0.934
-Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.137,0.168
+Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.106,-0.26,0.021
 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.191,0.023,0.331
-Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.22,0.045,0.362
-Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.064,-1.497,-0.756
-Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.352,-0.706
-Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.967,-1.345,-0.655
-Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.282,-0.683
-Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.215,-0.655
-Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.93,-1.321,-0.614
-Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.821,-1.152,-0.556
-Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.788,-1.071,-0.571
-Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.61,-0.252
-Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.79,-0.267
-Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.533,-0.345,0.933
-Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.201,-0.391,-0.021
-Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.236,-0.496,-0.024
-Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
-Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.023,0.046
-Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.142,-1.61,-0.808
-Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.449,-0.753
-Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.451,-0.704
-Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.004,-1.377,-0.729
-Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.968,-1.306,-0.701
-Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.426,-0.662
-Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.889,-1.241,-0.6
-Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.856,-1.169,-0.618
-Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.685,-0.288
-Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.864,-0.312
-Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.52,-0.401,0.932
-Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.247,-0.458,-0.051
-Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.282,-0.567,-0.048
-Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.048,-0.023
-Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0