Daily Papers

Imitation learning (IL) with generative models, such as diffusion and flow matching, has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks. However, distribution shifts from unseen environments or compounding action errors can still cause unpredictable and unsafe behavior, leading to task failure. Early failure prediction during runtime is therefore essential for deploying robots in human-centered and safety-critical environments. We propose FIPER, a general framework for Failure Prediction at Runtime for generative IL policies that does not require failure data. FIPER identifies two key indicators of impending failure: (i) out-of-distribution (OOD) observations detected via random network distillation in the policy's embedding space, and (ii) high uncertainty in generated actions measured by a novel action-chunk entropy score. Both failure prediction scores are calibrated using a small set of successful rollouts via conformal prediction. A failure alarm is triggered when both indicators, aggregated over short time windows, exceed their thresholds. We evaluate FIPER across five simulation and real-world environments involving diverse failure modes. Our results demonstrate that FIPER better distinguishes actual failures from benign OOD situations and predicts failures more accurately and earlier than existing methods. We thus consider this work an important step towards more interpretable and safer generative robot policies. Code, data and videos are available at https://tum-lsy.github.io/fiper_website.

Proactive interventions by LLM critic models are often assumed to improve reliability, yet their effects at deployment time are poorly understood. We show that a binary LLM critic with strong offline accuracy (AUROC 0.94) can nevertheless cause severe performance degradation, inducing a 26 percentage point (pp) collapse on one model while affecting another by near zero pp. This variability demonstrates that LLM critic accuracy alone is insufficient to determine whether intervention is safe. We identify a disruption-recovery tradeoff: interventions may recover failing trajectories but also disrupt trajectories that would have succeeded. Based on this insight, we propose a pre-deployment test that uses a small pilot of 50 tasks to estimate whether intervention is likely to help or harm, without requiring full deployment. Across benchmarks, the test correctly anticipates outcomes: intervention degrades performance on high-success tasks (0 to -26 pp), while yielding a modest improvement on the high-failure ALFWorld benchmark (+2.8 pp, p=0.014). The primary value of our framework is therefore identifying when not to intervene, preventing severe regressions before deployment.

Heart diseases remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide, implying approximately 18 million deaths according to the WHO. In particular, heart failures (HF) press the healthcare industry to develop systems for their early, rapid, and effective prediction. This work presents an automatic system based on a novel framework which combines Modal Decomposition and Masked Autoencoders (MAE) to extend the application from heart disease classification to the more challenging and specific task of heart failure time prediction, not previously addressed to the best of authors' knowledge. This system comprises two stages. The first one transforms the data from a database of echocardiography video sequences into a large collection of annotated images compatible with the training phase of machine learning-based frameworks and deep learning-based ones. This stage includes the use of the Higher Order Dynamic Mode Decomposition (HODMD) algorithm for both data augmentation and feature extraction. The second stage builds and trains a Vision Transformer (ViT). MAEs based on a combined scheme of self-supervised (SSL) and supervised learning, so far barely explored in the literature about heart failure prediction, are adopted to effectively train the ViT from scratch, even with scarce databases. The designed neural network analyses in real-time images from echocardiography sequences to estimate the time of happening a heart failure. This approach demonstrates to improve prediction accuracy from scarce databases and to be superior to several established ViT and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures. The source code will be incorporated into the next version release of the ModelFLOWs-app software (https://github.com/modelflows/ModelFLOWs-app).

LLM-based agents execute multi-step tasks, but their behavioral structure remains opaque: long unstructured traces resist the safety auditing and runtime monitoring that deployment requires. Existing approaches operate per-trace or success-only, so they miss the cross-run topology that links next-step and failure prediction. To recover that shared structure, we collapse an entire trace corpus into a single, compact finite-state machine (FSM) that serves as a structural substrate for the otherwise unpredictable behavior of LLM agents. Across twelve public datasets, the FSMs are compact (7-43 states), replay held-out data at >=0.997 fitness with near-identical topology across splits, and build in milliseconds. This substrate addresses both prediction goals. For next-step prediction, FSM-state context outperforms Agent Workflow Memory on every ground-truth-matched dataset. For failure prediction, per-state behavioral features reach held-out AUROC up to 0.94, and an online monitor ranks failing runs above passing ones from a partial trace, triggering early stopping well before completion. Behavioral topology thus appears shaped more by the deployment harness than by the LLM, providing a model-agnostic structural primitive for safety auditing and runtime monitoring.

LLM-based multi-agent systems are increasingly deployed on long-horizon tasks, but a single decisive error is often accepted by downstream agents and cascades into trajectory-level failure. Existing work frames this as post-hoc failure attribution, diagnosing the responsible agent and step after the trajectory has ended. However, this paradigm forfeits any opportunity to intervene while trajectory is still unfolding. In this work, we introduce AgentForesight, a framework that reframes this problem as online auditing: at each step of an unfolding trajectory, an auditor observes only the current prefix and must either continue the run or alarm at the earliest decisive error, without access to future steps. To this end, we curate AFTraj-2K, a corpus of agentic trajectories across Coding, Math, and Agentic domains, in which safe trajectories are retained under a strict curation pipeline and unsafe trajectories are annotated at the step of their decisive error via consensus among multiple LLM judges. Built on that, we develop AgentForesight-7B, a compact online auditor trained with a coarse-to-fine reinforcement learning recipe that first equips it with a risk-anticipation prior at the failure boundary on adjacent safe/unsafe prefix pairs, then sharpens this prior into precise step-level localization under a three-axis reward jointly targeting the what, where, and who of an audit verdict. Across AFTraj-2K and an external Who\&When benchmark, AgentForesight-7B outperforms leading proprietary models, including GPT-4.1 and DeepSeek-V4-Pro, achieving up to +19.9% performance gain and 3times lower step localization error, opening the loop from post-hoc failures detection to enabling deployment-time intervention. Project page: https://zbox1005.github.io/agent-foresight/

Robotic manipulation is a fundamental component of automation. However, traditional perception-planning pipelines often fall short in open-ended tasks due to limited flexibility, while the architecture of a single end-to-end Vision-Language-Action (VLA) offers promising capabilities but lacks crucial mechanisms for anticipating and recovering from failure. To address these challenges, we propose FPC-VLA, a dual-model framework that integrates VLA with a supervisor for failure prediction and correction. The supervisor evaluates action viability through vision-language queries and generates corrective strategies when risks arise, trained efficiently without manual labeling. A dual-stream fusion module further refines actions by leveraging past predictions. Evaluation results on multiple simulation platforms (SIMPLER and LIBERO) and robot embodiments (WidowX, Google Robot, Franka) show that FPC-VLA outperforms state-of-the-art models in both zero-shot and fine-tuned settings. Successful real-world deployments on diverse, long-horizon tasks confirm FPC-VLA's strong generalization and practical utility for building more reliable autonomous systems.

Objective: To transform heterogeneous clinical data from electronic health records into clinically meaningful constructed features using data driven method that rely, in part, on temporal relations among data. Materials and Methods: The clinically meaningful representations of medical concepts and patients are the key for health analytic applications. Most of existing approaches directly construct features mapped to raw data (e.g., ICD or CPT codes), or utilize some ontology mapping such as SNOMED codes. However, none of the existing approaches leverage EHR data directly for learning such concept representation. We propose a new way to represent heterogeneous medical concepts (e.g., diagnoses, medications and procedures) based on co-occurrence patterns in longitudinal electronic health records. The intuition behind the method is to map medical concepts that are co-occuring closely in time to similar concept vectors so that their distance will be small. We also derive a simple method to construct patient vectors from the related medical concept vectors. Results: For qualitative evaluation, we study similar medical concepts across diagnosis, medication and procedure. In quantitative evaluation, our proposed representation significantly improves the predictive modeling performance for onset of heart failure (HF), where classification methods (e.g. logistic regression, neural network, support vector machine and K-nearest neighbors) achieve up to 23% improvement in area under the ROC curve (AUC) using this proposed representation. Conclusion: We proposed an effective method for patient and medical concept representation learning. The resulting representation can map relevant concepts together and also improves predictive modeling performance.

Controlling an acting LLM agent means deciding, at each step of a long-horizon task, whether to trust its next action, abstain, or hand off to a human. That decision needs a per-step confidence signal predicting whether the current rollout will eventually succeed. The agent's own self-reported verbalized confidence is the natural candidate, but existing reinforcement learning methods calibrate it against the correctness of a decision at the current step. We propose a method to calibrate it against the eventual outcome of a multi-step episode: under GRPO, the group of rollouts for a task supplies success labels, and a proper scoring rule scores each step's confidence against the realized outcome. In offline RL on recorded trajectories of a Qwen2.5-7B agent in ALFWorld, TextWorld, and WebShop environments, the AUROC of step confidence against episode outcome rises from near chance to 0.68-0.85, and the top-10% of steps the agent is most confident about succeed ~4.3x more often than average. In online RL on the live ALFWorld agent, four calibration rewards improve early-step AUROC, expected calibration error goes from 0.42 to below 0.12, and selective execution improves over both the untrained agent and a format-only RL control, without degrading task success. We also introduce an evaluation protocol that separates episode depth, task difficulty, and attempt-level foresight, which shows where the gain lies: the trained agent recognizes from its first step which tasks it will fail, while telling a succeeding attempt from a failing one at the same task is harder, with some early-window signal emerging on TextWorld.

We introduce FailureSensorIQ, a novel Multi-Choice Question-Answering (MCQA) benchmarking system designed to assess the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to reason and understand complex, domain-specific scenarios in Industry 4.0. Unlike traditional QA benchmarks, our system focuses on multiple aspects of reasoning through failure modes, sensor data, and the relationships between them across various industrial assets. Through this work, we envision a paradigm shift where modeling decisions are not only data-driven using statistical tools like correlation analysis and significance tests, but also domain-driven by specialized LLMs which can reason about the key contributors and useful patterns that can be captured with feature engineering. We evaluate the Industrial knowledge of over a dozen LLMs-including GPT-4, Llama, and Mistral-on FailureSensorIQ from different lens using Perturbation-Uncertainty-Complexity analysis, Expert Evaluation study, Asset-Specific Knowledge Gap analysis, ReAct agent using external knowledge-bases. Even though closed-source models with strong reasoning capabilities approach expert-level performance, the comprehensive benchmark reveals a significant drop in performance that is fragile to perturbations, distractions, and inherent knowledge gaps in the models. We also provide a real-world case study of how LLMs can drive the modeling decisions on 3 different failure prediction datasets related to various assets. We release: (a) expert-curated MCQA for various industrial assets, (b) FailureSensorIQ benchmark and Hugging Face leaderboard based on MCQA built from non-textual data found in ISO documents, and (c) LLMFeatureSelector, an LLM-based feature selection scikit-learn pipeline. The software is available at https://github.com/IBM/FailureSensorIQ.

Robot world models support policy evaluation, planning, and synthetic data generation, but these applications require predictions that distinguish successful actions from failures. Across four released checkpoints from two architecture families, we observe weak sensitivity to action changes and success-like predictions on verified failures. Although recent work incorporates failures into model training, which data can repair released checkpoints without changing their architecture or training objective still remains underexplored. To this end, we introduce CureWM, which constructs alternative actions from successful demonstrations across a severity grid, verifies their outcomes through execution in simulation or on hardware, and fine-tunes released models on the resulting failures and surviving successes alongside nominal demonstrations. This construction provides controlled action contrasts from shared starting contexts. On 484 held-out LIBERO failure counterfactuals, optimism falls from 80\% after fine-tuning on the official data to 30--43\% across four independently fine-tuned CureWM models (38\% mean). In two separate evaluations on a physical robot arm, failure predictions scored as success-like by a latent-distance diagnostic decrease from 90\% after fine-tuning on successful demonstrations alone to 33\% with CureWM. With failure counts per task, successful replay data, and training budget matched, counterfactual failures yield a success--failure value gap of 0.124, compared with 0.014 for freshly collected on-policy failures. These findings support execution-verified counterfactual replay for post-hoc repair and show why reduced optimism must be evaluated alongside success--failure discrimination. Code is available at https://github.com/jiuyixu25/CureWM.

Uncertainty in perception, actuation, and the environment often require multiple attempts for a robotic task to be successful. We study a class of problems providing (1) low-entropy indicators of terminal success / failure, and (2) unreliable (high-entropy) data to predict the final outcome of an ongoing task. Examples include a robot trying to connect with a charging station, parallel parking, or assembling a tightly-fitting part. The ability to restart after predicting failure early, versus simply running to failure, can significantly decrease the makespan, that is, the total time to completion, with the drawback of potentially short-cutting an otherwise successful operation. Assuming task running times to be Poisson distributed, and using a Markov Jump process to capture the dynamics of the underlying Markov Decision Process, we derive a closed form solution that predicts makespan based on the confusion matrix of the failure predictor. This allows the robot to learn failure prediction in a production environment, and only adopt a preemptive policy when it actually saves time. We demonstrate this approach using a robotic peg-in-hole assembly problem using a real robotic system. Failures are predicted by a dilated convolutional network based on force-torque data, showing an average makespan reduction from 101s to 81s (N=120, p<0.05). We posit that the proposed algorithm generalizes to any robotic behavior with an unambiguous terminal reward, with wide ranging applications on how robots can learn and improve their behaviors in the wild.

Large language model (LLM) agents often waste inference compute by continuing multi-step trajectories that are already doomed to fail. We study early failure prediction and inference-time early stopping for LLM agents using hidden-state probes. Lightweight linear probes on internal activations predict eventual task failure from the first interaction round, substantially earlier than agent-monitoring methods based only on observable behavior. We turn this signal into a recall-controlled abort cascade for reducing LLM agent inference costs. The cascade applies a distribution-free calibrated failure detector at each early interaction round and jointly optimizes per-round recall budgets. This design ensures that eventually successful episodes survive all early-stopping gates at a user-specified global recall rate. After selection, the cascade is frozen and certified on independent data, providing an exact post-selection recall guarantee. We evaluate the method on TextCraft and WebShop with Qwen-2.5-7B, Llama-3.2-3B, and Qwen3-1.7B. The proposed LLM agent early-stopping cascade outperforms the best single-gate baseline in every model-environment pair, saving 1.5-8.8 times more compute at a 90% recall target. Achieved recall remains within one standard deviation of its target in all 24 configurations. The strongest settings reduce generated tokens by 60.2% on TextCraft and 54.9% on WebShop at 90% recall, while retaining savings of 45.0% and 41.5% at 95% recall. Behavior-only monitoring is consistently weaker, and adding behavioral features to hidden-state probes provides no further gain. We also characterize the sample complexity required to certify high-recall early-stopping policies. The code will be released soon.

Expressing confidence is challenging for embodied agents navigating dynamic multimodal environments, where uncertainty arises from both perception and decision-making processes. We present the first work investigating embodied confidence elicitation in open-ended multimodal environments. We introduce Elicitation Policies, which structure confidence assessment across inductive, deductive, and abductive reasoning, along with Execution Policies, which enhance confidence calibration through scenario reinterpretation, action sampling, and hypothetical reasoning. Evaluating agents in calibration and failure prediction tasks within the Minecraft environment, we show that structured reasoning approaches, such as Chain-of-Thoughts, improve confidence calibration. However, our findings also reveal persistent challenges in distinguishing uncertainty, particularly under abductive settings, underscoring the need for more sophisticated embodied confidence elicitation methods.

Action-conditioned video models offer a promising path to building general-purpose robot simulators that can improve directly from data. Yet, despite training on large-scale robot datasets, current state-of-the-art video models still struggle to predict physically consistent robot-object interactions that are crucial in robotic manipulation. To close this gap, we present PlayWorld, a simple, scalable, and fully autonomous pipeline for training high-fidelity video world simulators from interaction experience. In contrast to prior approaches that rely on success-biased human demonstrations, PlayWorld is the first system capable of learning entirely from unsupervised robot self-play, enabling naturally scalable data collection while capturing complex, long-tailed physical interactions essential for modeling realistic object dynamics. Experiments across diverse manipulation tasks show that PlayWorld generates high-quality, physically consistent predictions for contact-rich interactions that are not captured by world models trained on human-collected data. We further demonstrate the versatility of PlayWorld in enabling fine-grained failure prediction and policy evaluation, with up to 40% improvements over human-collected data. Finally, we demonstrate how PlayWorld enables reinforcement learning in the world model, improving policy performance by 65% in success rates when deployed in the real world.

Can one graph represent every kind of LLM agent's run? A trace records what each step did, never what it relied on, the state it read, and the results it reused. GRADE recovers that missing layer: it models any run as one graph over its step nodes with two edge layers, execution edges (what ran in what order) read from the trace for free, and dependency edges (what each step relied on) rarely logged, so each is graded by how it is known, observed, declared, or inferred. One representation, and each layer earns its place. Across six corpora of LLM agents spanning tool use, coding, and the web, the dependency layer can predict failure where run size is weak and, under leave-one-corpus-out transfer, stays above chance on every held-out class while run size fails. Meanwhile, the execution layer localizes the faulting step in a failed multi-agent run. This work also provides a more in-depth analysis of why generic graph neural networks may misread the dependency layer, unlike our feature-based alternative. The same graph representation opens further uses, carrying from failure diagnosis in a single run to efficiency and robustness optimization at scale.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce answers with high certainty even when they are incorrect, making reliable confidence estimation essential for deployment in real-world scenarios. Verbalized confidence, where models explicitly state their confidence in natural language, provides a flexible and user-facing uncertainty signal that can be applied even when token logits are unavailable. However, existing verbalized-confidence methods often optimize answer generation and confidence generation jointly, which can cause confidence-alignment objectives to interfere with answer accuracy. In this work, we propose a decoupled and order-aware framework for verbalized confidence calibration. Our method first generates an answer and then estimates confidence conditioned on the fixed question--answer pair, allowing confidence optimization without directly perturbing the answer-generation process. To align confidence with correctness likelihood, we construct a sampling-based surrogate from multiple model completions and optimize rank-based reinforcement learning objectives that encourage responses with higher estimated correctness likelihood to receive higher verbalized confidence. Experiments on reasoning and knowledge-intensive benchmarks show that our method improves calibration and failure prediction performance while largely preserving answer accuracy. These results demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be more reliably aligned by decoupling confidence estimation from answer generation and optimizing the relative ordering of confidence across responses.

Uncertainty estimation is critical for cost-sensitive deep-learning applications (i.e. disease diagnosis). It is very challenging partly due to the inaccessibility of uncertainty groundtruth in most datasets. Previous works proposed to estimate the uncertainty from softmax calibration, Monte Carlo sampling, subjective logic and so on. However, these existing methods tend to be over-confident about their predictions with unreasonably low overall uncertainty, which originates from the imbalance between positive (correct classifications) and negative (incorrect classifications) samples. For this issue, we firstly propose the distributional imbalance to model the imbalance in uncertainty estimation as two kinds of distribution biases, and secondly propose Balanced True Class Probability (BTCP) framework, which learns an uncertainty estimator with a novel Distributional Focal Loss (DFL) objective. Finally, we evaluate the BTCP in terms of failure prediction and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection on multiple datasets. The experimental results show that BTCP outperforms other uncertainty estimation methods especially in identifying incorrect classifications.

Recently, diffusion policy has shown impressive results in handling multi-modal tasks in robotic manipulation. However, it has fundamental limitations in out-of-distribution failures that persist due to compounding errors and its limited capability to extrapolate. One way to address these limitations is robot-gated DAgger, an interactive imitation learning with a robot query system to actively seek expert help during policy rollout. While robot-gated DAgger has high potential for learning at scale, existing methods like Ensemble-DAgger struggle with highly expressive policies: They often misinterpret policy disagreements as uncertainty at multi-modal decision points. To address this problem, we introduce Diff-DAgger, an efficient robot-gated DAgger algorithm that leverages the training objective of diffusion policy. We evaluate Diff-DAgger across different robot tasks including stacking, pushing, and plugging, and show that Diff-DAgger improves the task failure prediction by 39.0%, the task completion rate by 20.6%, and reduces the wall-clock time by a factor of 7.8. We hope that this work opens up a path for efficiently incorporating expressive yet data-hungry policies into interactive robot learning settings. The project website is available at: https://diffdagger.github.io.

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the state-of-the-art performance and show great potential. However, there are two limitations for current methods. First, their predictions are not trustworthy for failure-sensitive applications. This is especially harmful for the tail classes where the wrong predictions is basically frequent. Second, they assign unified numbers of experts to all samples, which is redundant for easy samples with excessive computational cost. To address these issues, we propose a Trustworthy Long-tailed Classification (TLC) method to jointly conduct classification and uncertainty estimation to identify hard samples in a multi-expert framework. Our TLC obtains the evidence-based uncertainty (EvU) and evidence for each expert, and then combines these uncertainties and evidences under the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (DST). Moreover, we propose a dynamic expert engagement to reduce the number of engaged experts for easy samples and achieve efficiency while maintaining promising performances. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on the tasks of classification, tail detection, OOD detection and failure prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed TLC outperforms existing methods and is trustworthy with reliable uncertainty.

Understanding agent behavior requires methods that scale to thousands of trajectories and surface new patterns in long, often unfamiliar tasks where pre-built classifiers fall short. We propose to bring grounded theory into agent trajectory analysis: a six-decade-old qualitative method from the social sciences, with a principled saturation criterion and an auditable trail from data to theory. We propose AutoTraceGT (Automated Trace analysis through Grounded Theory), the first multi-agent pipeline that automates grounded theory on agent trajectories. It iteratively performs open, axial, and theoretical coding until saturation, producing a behavioral taxonomy tailored to each task. Across six trajectory corpora, AutoTraceGT produces codebooks that recover 73-91 percent of the failure modes in human-annotated taxonomies and surface additional patterns that those taxonomies miss. The emergent theoretical narrative aligns with prior expert accounts. Used as a deductive feature space, the codebook outperforms zero-shot and few-shot LLM baselines on downstream failure prediction. These results suggest Grounded Theory offers a scalable analytic tool for ML researchers and agent developers studying what agents actually do.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is a principled, scalable alternative to RLHF for aligning large language models from pairwise preferences, but its internal geometric footprint remains undercharacterized, limiting audits, checkpoint comparisons, and failure prediction. We introduce SPINAL (Scaling-law and Preference Integration in Neural Alignment Layers), a diagnostic that measures how alignment reshapes representations across depth by tracing localized structural change layer by layer. Across model families, DPO produces a layerwise calibration effect concentrated in the final decoder blocks (often layers 21-30), where preference gradients most directly affect the next-token distribution. SPINAL encodes each checkpoint as a depth trace over (layer index, contraction score, transport score). The contraction score summarizes how quickly the tail of a layer's spectrum decays (how fast small modes vanish); higher values indicate stronger contraction into fewer effective directions. The transport score summarizes how much the token distribution shifts between adjacent layers using a bounded overlap measure; lower values indicate shorter, smoother steps through representation space. Aligned checkpoints show a late-layer ramp-up in contraction and a smooth reduction in transport, consistent with tightened and stabilized policy mass, while unaligned models trace higher-curvature, more entropic, and geometrically incoherent depth paths. Overall, alignment is geometrically localized: the final layers encode the dominant preference-induced corrections. SPINAL turns this localization into a practical audit signal, quantifying where alignment concentrates, how strongly it manifests, and when it begins to destabilize during training.

With the rapid evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) and their large-scale experimentation in cloud-computing spaces, the challenge of guaranteeing their security and efficiency in a failure scenario has become a main issue. To ensure the reliability and availability of large-scale language models in cloud computing scenarios, such as frequent resource failures, network problems, and computational overheads, this study proposes a novel adaptive fault tolerance mechanism. It builds upon known fault-tolerant mechanisms, such as checkpointing, redundancy, and state transposition, introducing dynamic resource allocation and prediction of failure based on real-time performance metrics. The hybrid model integrates data driven deep learning-based anomaly detection technique underlining the contribution of cloud orchestration middleware for predictive prevention of system failures. Additionally, the model integrates adaptive checkpointing and recovery strategies that dynamically adapt according to load and system state to minimize the influence on the performance of the model and minimize downtime. The experimental results demonstrate that the designed model considerably enhances the fault tolerance in large-scale cloud surroundings, and decreases the system downtime by 30%, and has a better modeling availability than the classical fault tolerance mechanism.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are critical for automating complex tasks, yet their practical deployment is severely hampered by the challenge of failure attribution. Current diagnostic tools, which rely on statistical correlations, are fundamentally inadequate; on challenging benchmarks like Who\&When, state-of-the-art methods achieve less than 15\% accuracy in locating the root-cause step of a failure. To address this critical gap, we introduce the first failure attribution framework for MAS grounded in multi-granularity causal inference. Our approach makes two key technical contributions: (1) a performance causal inversion principle, which correctly models performance dependencies by reversing the data flow in execution logs, combined with Shapley values to accurately assign agent-level blame; (2) a novel causal discovery algorithm, CDC-MAS, that robustly identifies critical failure steps by tackling the non-stationary nature of MAS interaction data. The framework's attribution results directly fuel an automated optimization loop, generating targeted suggestions whose efficacy is validated via counterfactual simulations. Evaluations on the Who\&When and TRAIL benchmarks demonstrate a significant leap in performance. Our method achieves up to 36.2\% step-level accuracy. Crucially, the generated optimizations boost overall task success rates by an average of 22.4\%. This work provides a principled and effective solution for debugging complex agent interactions, paving the way for more reliable and interpretable multi-agent systems.

AI evaluation can support the wrong inference when an in-domain benchmark success does not survive distribution shift, or when the benchmark endpoint is entangled with a design factor. We study this problem in CRISPRi perturbation-effect prediction, evaluating a frozen Geneformer representation under a locked, pre-registered protocol: heads and model selection were frozen before test evaluation; the protocol required external outcome labels to remain withheld until final unblinding; and analysis-governing decisions were fixed before the evaluations they govern. In-distribution on the Virtual Cell Challenge (VCC), the frozen representation carries measurable predictive information beyond a dimension-matched random-feature control (Delta R^2 = +0.1645, 95% CI [+0.1375, +0.1920]), satisfying the pre-registered informativeness gate required before interpreting transfer. It then fails zero-shot transfer on both external screens (Spearman rho = -0.139 and -0.267), lying below that control on each. Adding a predefined magnitude block improves the representation externally (Delta rho = +0.032 and +0.143) but, under the frozen primary head, does not rescue transfer: both remain negative. A pre-registered, count-adjusted max-response secondary is positively associated with the outcome on both screens; we report it as correlational and secondary, not as a recovered magnitude signal. Finally, the VCC endpoint is strongly sample-size associated: a count-only linear model reaches R^2 = +0.4325, versus +0.2589 for the four magnitude scalars; adding those scalars to cell count improves R^2 by only +0.0017, so much of the aggregate-magnitude signal overlaps with cell count. This case study shows how locking the evaluation, harmonizing the measured endpoint, and separating primary from secondary evidence can change the inference supported by an AI benchmark.

Long-horizon tasks are common in real-world robotic deployments, yet failure detection for such tasks remains underexplored. Detecting failures in long-horizon robotic tasks is particularly challenging because failure onset is often ambiguous and dense temporal annotations are typically unavailable. We present Foresight, a failure detection framework that monitors manipulation trajectories using latent representations from an action-conditioned world model. Foresight is trained using only final task-level success or failure labels. By leveraging predictive world-model embeddings, our method provides a unified framework for failure detection across different policies. We further use functional conformal prediction (FCP) to calibrate detection thresholds adaptively. We evaluate Foresight with state-of-the-art vision-language-action policies in simulation on LIBERO-Long, ManiSkill-Long, and BEHAVIOR-1K, compare it against state-of-the-artfailure detection methods, and validate it on real robots with three long-horizon tasks on a ReactorX-200 arm and one task on a Franka arm. Our results suggest that action-conditioned world-model embeddings provide a scalable representation for reliable failure monitoring in long-horizon manipulation.

Recent world-action models (WAMs) show that co-training policies with future prediction can provide physical priors for action generation. Building on the future-prediction ability of video models, many WAMs generate future videos and recover actions with inverse-dynamics models, or use these predicted videos as goal conditions for action generation. In both cases, the world model is trained mostly on successful demonstrations and has little reason to predict the consequences of bad actions. We introduce FACT, a causal World-Action Model that predicts future video and task progress conditioned on the executed action. This action-conditioned interface allows failure rollouts to supervise action consequences, turning bad actions into valid future targets rather than being discarded. Failure-aware training makes the progress predictor aware of both successful and failed action outcomes, which can optionally be used to score sampled action candidates at inference. Extensive experiments on simulation and real-world bimanual manipulation tasks show that FACT outperforms many existing baselines, improves as failure data are incorporated into training, and reduces success-biased future hallucination under bad actions. See more details at https://fact-wam.github.io/

Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as the standard paradigm for improving reasoning capability of large language models, while Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) has been a widely adopted module in pretraining. Combining them is a natural approach, yet current RL practices detach MTP gradients because joint training degrades the performance. We revisit this failure from an optimization perspective. We show that the per-step effect of MTP on the RL objective can be decomposed into two terms: a first-order correlation and a second-order perturbation penalty. This decomposition unifies three MTP training regimes: Detach, Cross-Entropy loss, and Policy loss, and explains why each succeeds or fails. Further analysis of policy loss reveals that, although it aligns with intuition, performance still degrades: the correlation term decays while the quadratic penalty persists. Guided by the analysis, we propose Optimal Coefficient Calibration (OCC), an adaptive scheme that tracks the optimal coefficient online via a log-probability proxy at negligible cost. Across six competition-level mathematical reasoning benchmarks, OCC consistently matches or exceeds the detach baseline, delivering improved joint MTP-RL training performance.

Imitation learning (IL) policies in robotics deliver strong performance in controlled settings but remain brittle in real-world deployments: rare events such as hardware faults, defective parts, unexpected human actions, or any state that lies outside the training distribution can lead to failed executions. Vision-based Anomaly Detection (AD) methods emerged as an appropriate solution to detect these anomalous failure states but do not distinguish failures from benign deviations. We introduce FIDeL (Failure Identification in Demonstration Learning), a policy-independent failure detection module. Leveraging recent AD methods, FIDeL builds a compact representation of nominal demonstrations and aligns incoming observations via optimal transport matching to produce anomaly scores and heatmaps. Spatio-temporal thresholds are derived with an extension of conformal prediction, and a Vision-Language Model (VLM) performs semantic filtering to discriminate benign anomalies from genuine failures. We also introduce BotFails, a multimodal dataset of real-world tasks for failure detection in robotics. FIDeL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, yielding +5.30% percent AUROC in anomaly detection and +17.38% percent failure-detection accuracy on BotFails compared to existing methods.

Online conformal prediction can fail when predictions shape actions and actions determine which outcomes enter calibration. Standard adaptive methods may retain marginal coverage while systematically miscovering the counterfactual outcomes of rarely selected actions. This paper formalizes the failure through counterfactual coverage and introduces Propensity-Weighted Online Conformal Prediction, an inverse-propensity-weighted recursion that debiases calibration. A doubly robust variant further reduces nuisance bias to the product of outcome-model and propensity errors. Under positivity, the resulting coverage rate matches an information-theoretic lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments on synthetic decision tasks, open bandit data, and financial rebalancing show that PW-OCP and DR-OCP improve counterfactual coverage and downstream regret without sacrificing prediction-set sharpness.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

Saliency maps are increasingly used as design guidance in siRNA efficacy prediction, yet attribution methods are rarely validated before motivating sequence edits. We introduce a pre-synthesis gate: a protocol for counterfactual sensitivity faithfulness that tests whether mutating high-saliency positions changes model output more than composition-matched controls. Cross-dataset transfer reveals two failure modes that would otherwise go undetected: faithful-but-wrong (saliency valid, predictions fail) and inverted saliency (top-saliency edits less impactful than random). Strikingly, models trained on mRNA-level assays collapse on a luciferase reporter dataset, demonstrating that protocol shifts can silently invalidate deployment. Across four benchmarks, 19/20 fold instances pass; the single failure shows inverted saliency. A biology-informed regularizer (BioPrior) strengthens saliency faithfulness with modest, dataset-dependent predictive trade-offs. Our results establish saliency validation as essential pre-deployment practice for explanation-guided therapeutic design. Code is available at https://github.com/shadi97kh/BioPrior.

Clinical early warning systems built on irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS) from electronic health records must deliver continuous risk scores for patient triage as well as interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify. Large language models (LLMs) are uniquely positioned for both, deriving risk from their output probabilities and rationales from their medical knowledge. However, we find that conventional LLM reasoning collapses graded risk into overconfident predictions and thereby undermines the cross-patient comparability on which triage depends. We refer to this failure mode as risk polarization and identify two underlying behaviors: early commitment to a single outcome, and one-sided reasoning that focuses only on the evidence for that outcome. To address this, we propose TRIAGE, a framework that trains an LLM to reason dialectically over competing clinical outcomes by eliciting outcome-specific rationales. This dialectical formulation mitigates risk polarization, enabling a single LLM to jointly provide explicit clinical rationales and risk scores comparable across patients. Across five ISMTS benchmarks, TRIAGE improves mean AUPRC by 17.0% and reduces mean calibration error by 82.8% relative to the competitive LLM-based baseline, while surpassing the strongest ISMTS baseline by 3.5% in mean AUPRC.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

As the focus in LLM-based coding shifts from static single-step code generation to multi-step agentic interaction with tools and environments, understanding which tasks will challenge agents and why becomes increasingly difficult. This is compounded by current practice: agent performance is typically measured by aggregate pass rates on benchmarks, but single-number metrics obscure the diversity of tasks within a benchmark. We present a framework for predicting success or failure on individual tasks tailored to the agentic coding regime. Our approach augments Item Response Theory (IRT) with rich features extracted from tasks, including issue statements, repository contexts, solutions, and test cases, and introduces a novel decomposition of agent ability into LLM and scaffold ability components. This parameterization enables us to aggregate evaluation data across heterogeneous leaderboards and accurately predict task-level performance for unseen benchmarks, as well as unseen LLM-scaffold combinations. Our methods have practical utility for benchmark designers, who can better calibrate the difficulty of their new tasks without running computationally expensive agent evaluations.

World Action Models (WAMs) jointly learn environmental dynamics and robot actions, introducing priors over physical evolution into embodied control. However, finite-horizon prediction and action generation are insufficient for complex embodied tasks that require global planning, cross-stage state maintenance, execution verification, and failure recovery. We refer to this mismatch as the prediction-deliberation gap of WAMs. To address this gap, we propose HarnessWAM, an agentic framework for WAMs. HarnessWAM employs a vision-language-model-based Task Manager to maintain an evidence-grounded scene belief and a structured task graph. A capability-conditioned executable-space projection further constrains open-ended semantic plans into sequences of atomic skills that satisfy task dependencies, embodiment-state constraints, and the capability boundary of the underlying WAM. During execution, HarnessWAM operates through an event-driven, dual-timescale feedback loop: a lightweight progress estimator continuously provides high-frequency execution evidence, while the Task Manager deliberates at salient milestones by jointly considering the current observation, task state, and interaction history to determine whether to advance the task, acquire additional observations, revise the plan, or initiate local recovery. This mechanism enables the robot to recover its state after a subtask failure and resume execution without discarding previously acquired scene knowledge. HarnessWAM achieves state-of-the-art full-task and subtask success rates of 59.6% and 69.9% on RoboMemArena, and an SR of 23.7% on RoboCerebra Ideal. These results demonstrate that model-external structured state maintenance and closed-loop agentic decision making can effectively extend the local control capabilities of WAMs into embodied task execution that is plannable, verifiable, and recoverable.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have emerged as generalist robotic controllers capable of mapping visual observations and natural language instructions to continuous action sequences. However, VLAs provide no calibrated measure of confidence in their action predictions, thus limiting their reliability in real-world settings where uncertainty and failures must be anticipated. To address this problem we introduce ReconVLA, a reliable conformal model that produces uncertainty-guided and failure-aware control signals. Concretely, our approach applies conformal prediction directly to the action token outputs of pretrained VLA policies, yielding calibrated uncertainty estimates that correlate with execution quality and task success. Furthermore, we extend conformal prediction to the robot state space to detect outliers or unsafe states before failures occur, providing a simple yet effective failure detection mechanism that complements the action-level uncertainty. We evaluate ReconVLA in both simulation and real robot experiments across diverse manipulation tasks. Our results show that conformalized action predictions consistently improve failure anticipation, reduce catastrophic errors, and provide a calibrated measure of confidence without retraining or modifying the underlying VLA.

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of ball bearings is an active area of research, where novel machine learning techniques are continuously being applied to predict degradation trends and anticipate failures before they occur. However, few studies have explicitly addressed the challenge of handling censored data, where information about a specific event (\eg mechanical failure) is incomplete or only partially observed. To address this issue, we introduce a novel and flexible method for early fault detection using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and RUL estimation using survival analysis that naturally supports censored data. We demonstrate our approach in the XJTU-SY dataset using a 5-fold cross-validation strategy across three different operating conditions. When predicting the time to failure for bearings under the highest load (C1, 12.0 kN and 2100 RPM) with 25% random censoring, our approach achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.7 minutes (95% CI = 13.6-15.8) using a linear CoxPH model, and an MAE of 12.6 minutes (95% CI = 11.8-13.4) using a nonlinear Random Survival Forests model, compared to an MAE of 18.5 minutes (95% CI = 17.4-19.6) using a linear LASSO model that does not support censoring. Moreover, our approach achieves a mean cumulative relative accuracy (CRA) of 0.7586 over 5 bearings under the highest load, which improves over several state-of-the-art baselines. Our work highlights the importance of considering censored data as part of the model design when building predictive models for early fault detection and RUL estimation.

The main objective of Prognostics and Health Management is to estimate the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL), namely, the time that a system or a piece of equipment is still in working order before starting to function incorrectly. In recent years, numerous machine learning algorithms have been proposed for RUL estimation, mainly focusing on providing more accurate RUL predictions. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in the problem, such as inherent randomness of systems failure, lack of knowledge regarding their future states, and inaccuracy of the underlying predictive models, making it infeasible to predict the RULs precisely. Hence, it is of utmost importance to quantify the uncertainty alongside the RUL predictions. In this work, we investigate the conformal prediction (CP) framework that represents uncertainty by predicting sets of possible values for the target variable (intervals in the case of RUL) instead of making point predictions. Under very mild technical assumptions, CP formally guarantees that the actual value (true RUL) is covered by the predicted set with a degree of certainty that can be prespecified. We study three CP algorithms to conformalize any single-point RUL predictor and turn it into a valid interval predictor. Finally, we conformalize two single-point RUL predictors, deep convolutional neural networks and gradient boosting, and illustrate their performance on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) data sets.

Recent multimodal large language models have shown great promise in clinical image reasoning, but existing post-training pipelines remain predominantly outcome-centric, relying on final answer correctness or sequence-level preferences. This suffers from sparse credit assignment, making it difficult to optimize the reasoning process essential for clinical applications. Our analysis reveals that cascading errors from early-stage reasoning failures are a leading cause of incorrect predictions in medical visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks. Motivated by this, we propose Medical Reasoning-aware Policy Optimization (MRPO), an RL algorithm that incorporates step-wise process rewards. When the final answer is incorrect, MRPO assigns exponentially larger penalties to tokens in earlier invalid reasoning steps, breaking failure cascades without compromising successful paths. Across three multimodal LLM backbones, MRPO consistently outperforms standard GRPO and a recent RL baseline, and on Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct even surpasses substantially larger medical MLLMs such as HuatuoGPT-Vision-34B by 2.79 points. Moreover, MRPO reduces early-stage reasoning failures from 64.0% to 13.0%, showing that targeted mitigation of cascading failures improves both reasoning quality and final answer accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/dmis-lab/MRPO

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

Large language model-driven multi-agent systems (LLM-MAS) excel at complex tasks, yet unreliable agents remain a key bottleneck to system-level reliability. Automatic failure attribution is therefore critical, but existing approaches, such as direct prediction of agent-error pairs and agent-first failure attribution, rely on local logs of agents and miss global failures that only manifest over full interaction trajectories, such as cross-step inconsistencies and inter-agent coordination errors. Moreover, directly predicting failures induces a large combinatorial search space, hindering fine-grained attribution. To address these challenges, we propose VerifyMAS, a hypothesis verification framework for agent failure attribution. Instead of directly predicting faulty agents and error types, VerifyMAS formulates and verifies failure hypotheses against full trajectories. This verification-based approach decomposes attribution into trajectory-level error validation and fine-grained agent localization, providing an error-first attribution approach that captures global failure patterns while substantially reducing the search space. We further introduce a hypothesis-based data construction strategy grounded in a structured error taxonomy and fine-tune a specialized LLM verifier model for trajectory-level failure verification and agent attribution. Experiments on Aegis-Bench and Who&When show that VerifyMAS consistently improves diverse backbone models, including open-source Qwen and API-based GPT models, outperforming prior methods without sacrificing inference efficiency for long multi-agent trajectories.

As the demand to integrate Artificial Intelligence into high-stakes environments continues to grow, explaining the reasoning behind neural-network predictions has shifted from a theoretical curiosity to a strict operational requirement. Our work is motivated by the explanations of autoregressive neural predictions on dynamic physical fields, as in weather forecasting. Gradient-based feature attribution methods are widely used to explain the predictions on such data, in particular due to their scalability to high-dimensional inputs. It is also interesting to remark that gradient-based techniques such as SmoothGrad are now standard on images to robustify the explanations using pointwise averages of the attribution maps obtained from several noised inputs. Our goal is to efficiently adapt this aggregation strategy to dynamic physical fields. To do so, our first contribution is to identify a fundamental failure mode when averaging perturbed attribution maps on dynamic physical fields: stochastic input perturbations do not induce stationary amplitude noise in attribution maps, but instead cause a geometric displacement of the attributions. Consequently, pointwise averaging blurs these spatially misaligned features. To tackle this issue, we introduce WassersteinGrad, which extracts a geometric consensus of perturbed attribution maps by computing their entropic Wasserstein barycenter. The results, obtained on regional weather data and a meteorologist-validated neural model, demonstrate promising explainability properties of WassersteinGrad over gradient-based baselines across both single-step and autoregressive forecasting settings.

We show how perceptual embeddings of the visual system can be constructed at inference-time with no training data or deep neural network features. Our perceptual embeddings are solutions to a weighted least squares (WLS) problem, defined at the pixel-level, and solved at inference-time, that can capture global and local image characteristics. The distance in embedding space is used to define a perceptual similarity metric which we call LASI: Linear Autoregressive Similarity Index. Experiments on full-reference image quality assessment datasets show LASI performs competitively with learned deep feature based methods like LPIPS (Zhang et al., 2018) and PIM (Bhardwaj et al., 2020), at a similar computational cost to hand-crafted methods such as MS-SSIM (Wang et al., 2003). We found that increasing the dimensionality of the embedding space consistently reduces the WLS loss while increasing performance on perceptual tasks, at the cost of increasing the computational complexity. LASI is fully differentiable, scales cubically with the number of embedding dimensions, and can be parallelized at the pixel-level. A Maximum Differentiation (MAD) competition (Wang & Simoncelli, 2008) between LASI and LPIPS shows that both methods are capable of finding failure points for the other, suggesting these metrics can be combined.

Machine learning models are often personalized with categorical attributes that are protected, sensitive, self-reported, or costly to acquire. In this work, we show models that are personalized with group attributes can reduce performance at a group level. We propose formal conditions to ensure the "fair use" of group attributes in prediction tasks by training one additional model -- i.e., collective preference guarantees to ensure that each group who provides personal data will receive a tailored gain in performance in return. We present sufficient conditions to ensure fair use in empirical risk minimization and characterize failure modes that lead to fair use violations due to standard practices in model development and deployment. We present a comprehensive empirical study of fair use in clinical prediction tasks. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of fair use violations in practice and illustrate simple interventions to mitigate their harm.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Imitation learning has enabled robots to acquire complex visuomotor manipulation skills from demonstrations, but deployment failures remain a major obstacle, especially for long-horizon action-chunked policies. Once execution drifts off the demonstration manifold, these policies often continue producing locally plausible actions without recovering from the failure. Existing runtime monitors either require failure data, over-trigger under benign feature drift, or stop at failure detection without providing a recovery mechanism. We present Rewind-IL, a training-free online safeguard framework for generative action-chunked imitation policies. Rewind-IL combines a zero-shot failure detector based on Temporal Inter-chunk Discrepancy Estimate (TIDE), calibrated with split conformal prediction, with a state-respawning mechanism that returns the robot to a semantically verified safe intermediate state. Offline, a vision-language model identifies recovery checkpoints in demonstrations, and the frozen policy encoder is used to construct a compact checkpoint feature database. Online, Rewind-IL monitors self-consistency in overlapping action chunks, tracks similarity to the checkpoint library, and, upon failure, rewinds execution to the latest verified safe state before restarting inference from a clean policy state. Experiments on real-world and simulated long-horizon manipulation tasks, including transfer to flow-matching action-chunked policies, demonstrate that policy-internal consistency coupled with semantically grounded respawning offers a practical route to improved reliability in imitation learning. Supplemental materials are available at https://sjay05.github.io/rewind-il

Reinforcement learning holds great promise for improving robot policies beyond the limits of imitation learning. However, its practical adoption remains bottlenecked by the lack of reliable vision-language reward models that provide dense and informative feedback. Two key challenges remain: acquiring diverse failure data at scale and obtaining fine-grained reward signals beyond sparse trajectory-level success labels. Collecting failure trajectories typically requires laborious human effort, while pseudo-failures constructed by relabeling successful demonstrations fail to capture the diverse physical failure modes that arise during robot execution. Meanwhile, existing reward models often predict sparse binary or trajectory-level rewards, which provide limited guidance for efficient policy optimization. We introduce DenseReward, a dense robotic reward model that addresses both challenges. To train DenseReward, we develop an automated failure data generation pipeline that synthesizes physically realistic failure trajectories in simulation without human labeling, covering diverse failure modes such as collisions, missed grasps, object drops, and recovery behaviors. DenseReward predicts dense frame-level reward scores from visual observations and language instructions, enabling fine-grained estimation of task progress throughout an episode. Experiments show that DenseReward outperforms general-purpose VLMs and existing robotic reward models in dense reward prediction across both simulated and real-world manipulation. We further demonstrate that DenseReward provides effective reward guidance for downstream model predictive control and reinforcement learning. We release the dataset, trained reward models, and evaluation suite to support the development of failure-aware dense reward modeling for robot learning.

A social highlighter's most useful signal -- which passages a crowd of readers marks -- exists only for documents people have already read. Can the aggregate crowd salience of a document be predicted from its text before its marks accumulate? Prior work on this data found that zero-shot language models recover highlight locations worse than a trivial lead (position) baseline, so we ask whether a model trained on the highlight corpus can beat that baseline. Using a pre-registered ladder of models and a by-document cluster bootstrap, we find a small but robust edge: a logistic ranker over sentence embeddings and positional/contextual features beats the lead baseline by +0.044 average precision (95% CI [+0.029, +0.058]; clears a pre-registered margin delta=0.03 in 97% of resamples, and stable across pipeline re-runs). Two unsupervised extractive baselines (centroid, LexRank-style centrality) lose to lead, and the trained model beats them by +0.108, so the edge is not recovered by generic unsupervised proxies -- it reflects learning from real reader marks. In product terms, precision@3 rises from 0.25 to 0.39 (+55% relative) and the model beats lead on 69% of documents. An ablation attributes the edge to the raw embedding (+0.014) and training augmentation (+0.010), each with a positive CI. The edge is not a temporal-generalization failure, and we find no evidence that content drift or near-duplicate leakage explains it. A standardized regression shows the advantage is governed mainly by document popularity (lower popularity, larger edge) and by label reliability. It nearly vanishes only on the most popular content; there it is the lead baseline that strengthens, not the model that weakens. Because our evaluation conditions on documents that eventually accumulated readers, these results are a retrospective cold-start simulation.

Clinical trials in the UK can cost up to £1.3 million, with approximately 90% drug failure rate. Toxicity is a major contributing factor in drug failure. Testing is time and cost intensive. In recent years, the use of artificial intelligence has been increasingly explored to aid in the prediction of drug toxicity, with extensive use of large language models (LLMs). However, LLMs can show considerable variation when minor changes are made to prompts, which raises concerns about their sensitivity to prompt engineering. Prompt engineering is used to optimise a prompt given to an LLM to generate the desired output. This paper proposes a method to analyse prompt engineering for drug toxicity prediction. The aim of the paper is to investigate the importance of prompt phrasing for drug toxicity prediction. LLMs were prompted to identify chemical properties of significance when predicting drug toxicity. Prompts were constructed to investigate; job role, prompt structuring, and rule interpretation. LLMs were then used to generate datasets, using the identified features from initial prompting, which were then passed to machine learning algorithms. The experiments show that the natural variance which occurs in LLMs outweighs any fine-tuning of prompts. There were, however, substantial improvements in model performance when using chemoinformatic code to extract features instead of using LLM-generated values. The proposed analysis methodology is applicable to a wide range of prompt types across different areas of bioinformatics.

Standard behavior cloning supervises actions without explicitly constraining the future representation paired with each demonstrated action chunk. We introduce JEPA Policy, a diffusion-free framework that uses the action chunk and its observed future representation as paired training targets. Action and future-representation tokens interact in a shared Transformer and are refined through two forward passes. Future prediction can therefore shape the representation used to generate actions. Dual-branch and gradient-routing controls attribute the gain to this shared topology rather than to an auxiliary prediction head alone. Across nine simulated tasks, JEPA Policy improves mean success over the action-only MIP baseline and outperforms Diffusion Policy under the evaluated configurations, while adding 0.29 ms to MIP's model latency. A five-task, 630-episode physical-robot study produces the same pooled ranking. Further audits find no complete representation collapse under action supervision and identify a task-conditioned failure-ranking signal in future-prediction error. These results support paired future-representation supervision as a practical approach to low-latency visuomotor imitation without iterative generative sampling.

Despite extensive diagnostics and debugging by developers, AI systems sometimes exhibit harmful unintended behaviors. Finding and fixing these is challenging because the attack surface is so large -- it is not tractable to exhaustively search for inputs that may elicit harmful behaviors. Red-teaming and adversarial training (AT) are commonly used to improve robustness, however, they empirically struggle to fix failure modes that differ from the attacks used during training. In this work, we utilize latent adversarial training (LAT) to defend against vulnerabilities without leveraging knowledge of what they are or using inputs that elicit them. LAT makes use of the compressed, abstract, and structured latent representations of concepts that the network actually uses for prediction. Here, we use it to defend against failure modes without examples that elicit them. Specifically, we use LAT to remove trojans and defend against held-out classes of adversarial attacks. We show in image classification, text classification, and text generation tasks that LAT usually improves both robustness to novel attacks and performance on clean data relative to AT. This suggests that LAT can be a promising tool for defending against failure modes that are not explicitly identified by developers.

While vision-language-action models (VLAs) have shown promising robotic behaviors across a diverse set of manipulation tasks, they achieve limited success rates when deployed on novel tasks out-of-the-box. To allow these policies to safely interact with their environments, we need a failure detector that gives a timely alert such that the robot can stop, backtrack, or ask for help. However, existing failure detectors are trained and tested only on one or a few specific tasks, while VLAs require the detector to generalize and detect failures also in unseen tasks and novel environments. In this paper, we introduce the multitask failure detection problem and propose SAFE, a failure detector for generalist robot policies such as VLAs. We analyze the VLA feature space and find that VLAs have sufficient high-level knowledge about task success and failure, which is generic across different tasks. Based on this insight, we design SAFE to learn from VLA internal features and predict a single scalar indicating the likelihood of task failure. SAFE is trained on both successful and failed rollouts, and is evaluated on unseen tasks. SAFE is compatible with different policy architectures. We test it on OpenVLA, pi_0, and pi_0-FAST in both simulated and real-world environments extensively. We compare SAFE with diverse baselines and show that SAFE achieves state-of-the-art failure detection performance and the best trade-off between accuracy and detection time using conformal prediction. More qualitative results can be found at https://vla-safe.github.io/.

When can an agent failure be caught? An audit is usually limited by the record rather than by the method. CatchBench therefore puts one auditor's question to three information states: the declared configuration before a run (PRE), a growing prefix of its trace (LIVE), and the finished trace (POST). Prior benchmarks fix one of these states or vary the telemetry; to our knowledge none scores all three under one task-method interface. Each state admits different questions, so seven task contracts carry their own labels and metrics rather than one leaderboard. Four are evidential; three are Gold-derived mechanism diagnostics. The release scores 72 entrants, from rule scanners and structural models to eleven LLM judges across nine model families (GPT, Claude, Gemini, Gemma, Llama, Qwen, DeepSeek, Mistral, Nova), over 1187 declared configurations and 1162 recorded runs. Most of the arena does not order: 56 of 138 registered contrasts separate, and the rest are published unresolved rather than ranked. The two sharpest results cut against our own data. One rule ignores every name and permission; it flags each capability declared after the first. On one of six configuration sources it reaches a perfect F1, so a score there measures how the corpus was built rather than how well a method reasons. Our admissibility bar then rejected one injected substrate and withheld evidential status from the other. A benchmark number is therefore not interpretable until the process behind its labels is published and tested for the shortcut it may leave. We report both, and regenerate every ordering from released predictions with no model call.

Central to our understanding of chemical reactivity is the principle of mass conservation, which is fundamental for ensuring physical consistency, balancing equations, and guiding reaction design. However, data-driven computational models for tasks such as reaction product prediction rarely abide by this most basic constraint. In this work, we recast the problem of reaction prediction as a problem of electron redistribution using the modern deep generative framework of flow matching. Our model, FlowER, overcomes limitations inherent in previous approaches by enforcing exact mass conservation, thereby resolving hallucinatory failure modes, recovering mechanistic reaction sequences for unseen substrate scaffolds, and generalizing effectively to out-of-domain reaction classes with extremely data-efficient fine-tuning. FlowER additionally enables estimation of thermodynamic or kinetic feasibility and manifests a degree of chemical intuition in reaction prediction tasks. This inherently interpretable framework represents a significant step in bridging the gap between predictive accuracy and mechanistic understanding in data-driven reaction outcome prediction.

Climate-vulnerable road networks require a paradigm shift from reactive, fix-on-failure repairs to predictive, decision-ready maintenance. This paper introduces ST-ResGAT, a novel Spatio-Temporal Residual Graph Attention Network that fuses residual graph-attention encoding with GRU temporal aggregation to forecast pavement deterioration. Engineered for resource-constrained deployment, the framework translates continuous Pavement Condition Index (PCI) forecasts directly into the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM)-compliant maintenance priorities. Using a real-world inspection dataset of 750 segments in Sylhet, Bangladesh (2021-2024), ST-ResGAT significantly outperforms traditional non-spatial machine learning baselines, achieving exceptional predictive fidelity (R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 2.72). Crucially, ablation testing confirmed the mathematical necessity of modeling topological neighbor effects, proving that structural decay acts as a spatial contagion. Uniquely, we integrate GNNExplainer to unbox the model, demonstrating that its learned priorities align perfectly with established physical engineering theory. Furthermore, we quantify classification safety: achieving 85.5% exact ASTM class agreement and 100% adjacent-class containment, ensuring bounded, engineer-safe predictions. To connect model outputs to policy, we generate localized longitudinal maintenance profiles, perform climate stress-testing, and derive Pareto sustainability frontiers. ST-ResGAT therefore offers a practical, explainable, and sustainable blueprint for intelligent infrastructure management in high-risk, low-resource geological settings.

Nucleotide sequence variation can induce significant shifts in functional fitness. Recent nucleotide foundation models promise to predict such fitness effects directly from sequence, yet heterogeneous datasets and inconsistent preprocessing make it difficult to compare methods fairly across DNA and RNA families. Here we introduce NABench, a large-scale, systematic benchmark for nucleic acid fitness prediction. NABench aggregates 162 high-throughput assays and curates 2.6 million mutated sequences spanning diverse DNA and RNA families, with standardized splits and rich metadata. We show that NABench surpasses prior nucleotide fitness benchmarks in scale, diversity, and data quality. Under a unified evaluation suite, we rigorously assess 29 representative foundation models across zero-shot, few-shot prediction, transfer learning, and supervised settings. The results quantify performance heterogeneity across tasks and nucleic-acid types, demonstrating clear strengths and failure modes for different modeling choices and establishing strong, reproducible baselines. We release NABench to advance nucleic acid modeling, supporting downstream applications in RNA/DNA design, synthetic biology, and biochemistry. Our code is available at https://github.com/mrzzmrzz/NABench.

Evaluating LLM agents is essential for guiding their development, yet it has grown prohibitively expensive: a single pass of a frontier model over an agentic benchmark can cost hundreds to thousands of dollars, a price paid repeatedly across iterative development cycles. Prior efforts, centered on benchmark distillation, reduce the number of evaluation tasks but leave the cost of executing each retained task untouched. In this work, we introduce early outcome prediction, a complementary axis of efficiency that instead cuts cost within each task. Our key insight is that an agent's final outcome is often evident from its intermediate behavior well before execution completes. We instantiate this idea in EarlyEval, a lightweight framework that trains a pair of LightGBM success and failure classifiers over behavioral, textual, and reference-solution features, and halts an agent run the moment either classifier crosses a calibrated confidence threshold, adding negligible per-step overhead. Across three benchmarks, SWE-bench Verified, TerminalBench, and Toolathlon, EarlyEval can eliminate 13%-26% of agent steps and up to 44.1% input tokens and 29.4% output tokens at 89%-97% prediction accuracy, while perturbing per-agent resolve rates by only one to two percentage points on average.

Molecular dynamics (MD) provides insights into atomic-scale processes by integrating over time the equations that describe the motion of atoms under the action of interatomic forces. Machine learning models have substantially accelerated MD by providing inexpensive predictions of the forces, but they remain constrained to minuscule time integration steps, which are required by the fast time scale of atomic motion. In this work, we propose FlashMD, a method to predict the evolution of positions and momenta over strides that are between one and two orders of magnitude longer than typical MD time steps. We incorporate considerations on the mathematical and physical properties of Hamiltonian dynamics in the architecture, generalize the approach to allow the simulation of any thermodynamic ensemble, and carefully assess the possible failure modes of such a long-stride MD approach. We validate FlashMD's accuracy in reproducing equilibrium and time-dependent properties, using both system-specific and general-purpose models, extending the ability of MD simulation to reach the long time scales needed to model microscopic processes of high scientific and technological relevance.

Embodied navigation for long-horizon tasks, guided by complex natural language instructions, remains a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Existing agents often struggle with robust long-term planning about unseen environments, leading to high failure rates. To address these limitations, we introduce NavForesee, a novel Vision-Language Model (VLM) that unifies high-level language planning and predictive world model imagination within a single, unified framework. Our approach empowers a single VLM to concurrently perform planning and predictive foresight. Conditioned on the full instruction and historical observations, the model is trained to understand the navigation instructions by decomposing the task, tracking its progress, and formulating the subsequent sub-goal. Simultaneously, it functions as a generative world model, providing crucial foresight by predicting short-term environmental dynamics and long-term navigation milestones. The VLM's structured plan guides its targeted prediction, while the imagined future provides rich context to inform the navigation actions, creating a powerful internal feedback loop of perception-planning/prediction-action. We demonstrate through extensive experiments on the R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmark that NavForesee achieves highly competitive performance in complex scenarios. Our work highlights the immense potential of fusing explicit language planning with implicit spatiotemporal prediction, paving the way for more intelligent and capable embodied agents.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models enable robots to follow natural language instructions and generalize across diverse tasks, but they remain vulnerable to execution failures that compromise reliability in real-world deployment. Detecting such failures during execution is therefore critical for the robust deployment of embodied systems. Existing failure detection methods either rely on expensive action resampling or external models, while alternatives propagate trajectory-level labels uniformly across every timestep, obscuring localized failure signals. In this paper, we propose Hide-and-Seek, a framework that formulates VLA failure detection as a coarsely supervised learning problem. By combining inter-trajectory and intra-trajectory contrastive objectives, Hide-and-Seek localizes failure-indicative actions and induces temporally structured failure signals from trajectory-level supervision alone, without any step-level annotation. We evaluate Hide-and-Seek on LIBERO, VLABench, and a real-world robotic platform across three representative VLA policies: OpenVLA, π_0, and π_{0.5}.Our method achieves state-of-the-art multi-task failure detection performance with a practical accuracy--timeliness trade-off under conformal prediction, and generalizes well to both seen and unseen tasks.

Heart failure (HF) affects 11.8% of adults aged 65 and older, reducing quality of life and longevity. Preventing HF can reduce morbidity and mortality. We hypothesized that artificial intelligence (AI) applied to 24-hour single-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) data could predict the risk of HF within five years. To research this, the Technion-Leumit Holter ECG (TLHE) dataset, including 69,663 recordings from 47,729 patients, collected over 20 years was used. Our deep learning model, DeepHHF, trained on 24-hour ECG recordings, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 that outperformed a model using 30-second segments and a clinical score. High-risk individuals identified by DeepHHF had a two-fold chance of hospitalization or death incidents. Explainability analysis showed DeepHHF focused on arrhythmias and heart abnormalities, with key attention between 8 AM and 3 PM. This study highlights the feasibility of deep learning to model 24-hour continuous ECG data, capturing paroxysmal events and circadian variations essential for reliable risk prediction. Artificial intelligence applied to single-lead Holter ECG is non-invasive, inexpensive, and widely accessible, making it a promising tool for HF risk prediction.

Background and Objective: Clinicians expect recurrence risk to climb with cancer severity. In a UK multicentre trial, an unconstrained XGBoost model learnt that higher tumour stage and carcinoma in situ predicted lower recurrence risk, and discrimination, calibration, and SHAP were all blind to it. We developed a counterfactual testing framework to detect this inversion and a monotonic-constraint framework to remove it without hurting performance. Methods: BOXIT enrolled 472 patients with protocol-mandated cystoscopy across 51 UK sites (2007-2012); 435 had at least two years' follow-up (153 recurrences, 35.2%). We developed a counterfactual direction test and a monotonic-constraint correction, with constraint directions drawn from the EORTC and EAU risk systems, and evaluated both against unconstrained XGBoost and logistic regression on 18 predictors (seven directed) over 50 cross-validation folds. The test worsened each patient on one directed feature at a time to check whether risk fell; SHAP direction and calibration were also assessed. Key Findings and Limitations: Tumour stage and carcinoma in situ were associated with lower recurrence, opposite to medical intuition; the unconstrained model reversed carcinoma in situ counterfactuals in 90.2% of cases and stage in 74.3%. Discrimination (ΔAUC 0.005, p=0.47), calibration, and SHAP magnitude were all blind to the inversion. Monotonic constraints eliminated every violation at no cost to discrimination (0.723 vs 0.718) and outperformed EORTC (p=8.9e-16). Limitations: single trial, internal-external validation only. Conclusions and Clinical Implications: A model that had learned this inversion passed every conventional check. A counterfactual direction test, run as a single refit with pre-specified monotonic constraints, catches this failure at no cost to performance and should be routine before clinical deployment.

Failure attribution in multi-agent systems -- pinpointing the exact step where a decisive error occurs -- is a critical yet unsolved challenge. Current methods treat this as a pattern recognition task over long conversation logs, leading to critically low step-level accuracy (below 17\%), which renders them impractical for debugging complex systems. Their core weakness is a fundamental inability to perform robust counterfactual reasoning: to determine if correcting a single action would have actually averted the task failure. To bridge this counterfactual inference gap, we introduce Abduct-Act-Predict (A2P) Scaffolding, a novel agent framework that transforms failure attribution from pattern recognition into a structured causal inference task. A2P explicitly guides a large language model through a formal three-step reasoning process within a single inference pass: (1) Abduction, to infer the hidden root causes behind an agent's actions; (2) Action, to define a minimal corrective intervention; and (3) Prediction, to simulate the subsequent trajectory and verify if the intervention resolves the failure. This structured approach leverages the holistic context of the entire conversation while imposing a rigorous causal logic on the model's analysis. Our extensive experiments on the Who\&When benchmark demonstrate its efficacy. On the Algorithm-Generated dataset, A2P achieves 47.46\% step-level accuracy, a 2.85times improvement over the 16.67\% of the baseline. On the more complex Hand-Crafted dataset, it achieves 29.31\% step accuracy, a 2.43times improvement over the baseline's 12.07\%. By reframing the problem through a causal lens, A2P Scaffolding provides a robust, verifiable, and significantly more accurate solution for automated failure attribution. Ours code are released at https://github.com/ResearAI/A2P.

Current evaluation protocols for Vision-Language Models (VLMs) in Radiology Report Generation (RRG) rely on report-level metrics that measure lexical overlap or aggregate clinical correctness. However, such metrics do not test whether individual diagnostic statements stem from the actual pathological evidence visible in the image. This allows models to achieve competitive scores by exploiting learned priors or spurious correlations, a failure mode we refer to as vision shortcut. We introduce SHOVIR, a benchmark for evaluating vision shortcut behavior in RRG. SHOVIR extends two spatially annotated chest X-ray datasets, MIMIC-CXR and PadChest-GR, with per-box CheXpert labels, and defines image-level and disease-level occlusion experiments that contrast baseline performance on clean images against localized, region-specific perturbations. Comparing predictions across these conditions isolates two failure modes at the disease-class level: direct shortcuts, where a finding persists after its visual evidence is removed, and contextual shortcuts, where detection degrades once co-occurring pathologies are occluded despite the target region remaining intact. Benchmarking eight state-of-the-art VLMs, we find that shortcut behavior varies substantially across architectures and datasets. Models achieving the highest baseline report quality do not necessarily rank highest in spatial grounding, revealing that clinically fluent generation can coexist with shallow reliance on visual evidence. These findings expose a blind spot in current RRG evaluation and motivate region-aware assessment protocols.

BraTS-GoAT evaluates tumor segmentation across heterogeneous populations. We trained a conventional 3D nnU-Net on 1,351 labeled cases using five-fold cross-validation and 1,000 epochs per fold. The final predictor averaged all folds and applied test-time mirroring. On pooled official validation, global DSC values were 0.7805, 0.8288, and 0.8854 for enhancing tumor (ET), tumor core (TC), and whole tumor (WT). Under matched fold-0 inference, mean regional Dice decreased from 0.9058 on source out-of-fold (OOF) cases to 0.8310 on pooled validation (difference--0.0747). Mirroring gave small single-fold gains but no clear ensemble benefit; a residual-encoder alternative reached 0.8282 mean Dice. In labeled OOF predictions, failure cases had substantially smaller reference ET volumes; after adjustment for ET and WT volume, lower Dice remained associated with more disconnected ET components and a smaller fraction of ET contained in the largest component.

We present the Leuven Art Personalized Image Set (LAPIS), a novel dataset for personalized image aesthetic assessment (PIAA). It is the first dataset with images of artworks that is suitable for PIAA. LAPIS consists of 11,723 images and was meticulously curated in collaboration with art historians. Each image has an aesthetics score and a set of image attributes known to relate to aesthetic appreciation. Besides rich image attributes, LAPIS offers rich personal attributes of each annotator. We implemented two existing state-of-the-art PIAA models and assessed their performance on LAPIS. We assess the contribution of personal attributes and image attributes through ablation studies and find that performance deteriorates when certain personal and image attributes are removed. An analysis of failure cases reveals that both existing models make similar incorrect predictions, highlighting the need for improvements in artistic image aesthetic assessment. The LAPIS project page can be found at: https://github.com/Anne-SofieMaerten/LAPIS

Thanks to the large pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs) like CLIP, we can craft a zero-shot classifier by "prompt", e.g., the confidence score of an image being "[CLASS]" can be obtained by using the VLM provided similarity measure between the image and the prompt sentence "a photo of a [CLASS]". Therefore, prompt shows a great potential for fast adaptation of VLMs to downstream tasks if we fine-tune the prompt-based similarity measure. However, we find a common failure that improper fine-tuning may not only undermine the prompt's inherent prediction for the task-related classes, but also for other classes in the VLM vocabulary. Existing methods still address this problem by using traditional anti-overfitting techniques such as early stopping and data augmentation, which lack a principled solution specific to prompt. We present Prompt-aligned Gradient, dubbed ProGrad, to prevent prompt tuning from forgetting the the general knowledge learned from VLMs. In particular, ProGrad only updates the prompt whose gradient is aligned (or non-conflicting) to the "general direction", which is represented as the gradient of the KL loss of the pre-defined prompt prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate the stronger few-shot generalization ability of ProGrad over state-of-the-art prompt tuning methods. Codes are available at https://github.com/BeierZhu/Prompt-align.

Many decision-support settings require systems that adapt to individual users, but evaluation data for this problem remain limited. Existing benchmarks for user understanding often rely on simulated users or model-generated behavior, even though recent work cautions that model-based simulations can diverge systematically from human behavior. We introduce BehaviorBench, a benchmark for evaluating personalized decision modeling from real-world behavioral traces. BehaviorBench reconstructs wallet-level decision histories from observed public prediction-market and on-chain records, and organizes them into two complementary task layers: Belief prediction, which predicts a user's final revealed stance and confidence in a market, and Trade prediction, which predicts the direction and amount of individual transactions. Across 2,000 evaluation wallets, the benchmark contains 141,445 Belief instances and 1,485,972 Trade instances, with disjoint support pools for retrieval-based evaluation. We evaluate frontier and open-weight generative models under four history interfaces: no personalization, direct recent history, generated user profiles, and retrieved support-wallet evidence. Personalization improves Belief prediction more consistently than Trade prediction, model rankings change across task layers and metrics, and different history interfaces expose different failure modes. BehaviorBench provides an evaluation setting for studying whether personalized methods can use real-world behavioral evidence rather than simulated users alone.

Active Speaker Detection (ASD) aims to identify who is speaking in complex visual scenes. While humans naturally rely on lip-audio synchronization, existing ASD models often misclassify non-speaking instances when lip movements and audio are unsynchronized. To address this, we propose Lip landmark Assisted Speaker dEtection for Robustness (LASER), which explicitly incorporates lip landmarks during training to guide the model's attention to speech-relevant regions. Given a face track, LASER extracts visual features and encodes 2D lip landmarks into dense maps. To handle failure cases such as low resolution or occlusion, we introduce an auxiliary consistency loss that aligns lip-aware and face-only predictions, removing the need for landmark detectors at test time. LASER outperforms state-of-the-art models across both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks. To further evaluate robustness in realistic conditions, we introduce LASER-bench, a curated dataset of modern video clips with varying levels of background noise. On the high-noise subset, LASER improves mAP by 3.3 and 4.3 points over LoCoNet and TalkNet, respectively, demonstrating strong resilience to real-world acoustic challenges.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

Despite the rapid progress of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), their ability to perform reliable visual grounding in high-stakes clinical software environments remains underexplored. Existing GUI benchmarks largely focus on isolated, single-step grounding queries, overlooking the sequential, workflow-driven reasoning required in real-world medical interfaces, where tasks evolve across independent steps and dynamic interface states. We introduce MedSPOT, a workflow-aware sequential grounding benchmark for clinical GUI environments. Unlike prior benchmarks that treat grounding as a standalone prediction task, MedSPOT models procedural interaction as a sequence of structured spatial decisions. The benchmark comprises 216 task-driven videos with 597 annotated keyframes, in which each task consists of 2 to 3 interdependent grounding steps within realistic medical workflows. This design captures interface hierarchies, contextual dependencies, and fine-grained spatial precision under evolving conditions. To evaluate procedural robustness, we propose a strict sequential evaluation protocol that terminates task assessment upon the first incorrect grounding prediction, explicitly measuring error propagation in multi-step workflows. We further introduce a comprehensive failure taxonomy, including edge bias, small-target errors, no prediction, near miss, far miss, and toolbar confusion, to enable systematic diagnosis of model behavior in clinical GUI settings. By shifting evaluation from isolated grounding to workflow-aware sequential reasoning, MedSPOT establishes a realistic and safety-critical benchmark for assessing multimodal models in medical software environments. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/Tajamul21/MedSPOT.

Occlusion perception, a critical foundation for human-level spatial understanding, embodies the challenge of integrating visual recognition and reasoning. Though multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities, their performance on occlusion perception remains under-explored. To address this gap, we introduce O-Bench, the first visual question answering (VQA) benchmark specifically designed for occlusion perception. Based on SA-1B, we construct 1,365 images featuring semantically coherent occlusion scenarios through a novel layered synthesis approach. Upon this foundation, we annotate 4,588 question-answer pairs in total across five tailored tasks, employing a reliable, semi-automatic workflow. Our extensive evaluation of 22 representative MLLMs against the human baseline reveals a significant performance gap between current MLLMs and humans, which, we find, cannot be sufficiently bridged by model scaling or thinking process. We further identify three typical failure patterns, including an overly conservative bias, a fragile gestalt prediction, and a struggle with quantitative tasks. We believe O-Bench can not only provide a vital evaluation tool for occlusion perception, but also inspire the development of MLLMs for better visual intelligence. Our benchmark will be made publicly available upon paper publication.

Deploying safety-critical agents requires anticipating the consequences of actions before they are executed. While world models offer a paradigm for this proactive foresight, current approaches relying on visual simulation incur prohibitive latencies, often exceeding several seconds per step. In this work, we challenge the assumption that visual processing is necessary for failure prevention. We show that a trained policy's latent state, combined with its planned actions, already encodes sufficient information to anticipate action outcomes, making visual simulation redundant for failure prevention. To this end, we introduce DILLO (DIstiLLed Language-ActiOn World Model), a fast steering layer that shifts the paradigm from "simulate-then-act" to "describe-then-act." DILLO is trained via cross-modal distillation, where a privileged Vision Language Model teacher annotates offline trajectories and a latent-conditioned Large Language Model student learns to predict semantic outcomes. This creates a text-only inference path, bypassing heavy visual generation entirely, achieving a 14x speedup over baselines. Experiments on MetaWorld and LIBERO demonstrate that DILLO produces high-fidelity descriptions of the next state and is able to steer the policy, improving episode success rate by up to 15 pp and 9.3 pp on average across tasks.

Multimodal LLMs are increasingly used to assist scientific peer review, where a core requirement is verifying whether claims in a paper are supported by its evidence. Prior work has shown that models perform substantially better at this task when the evidence is a table than when it is a chart of the same underlying data. This raises the question of whether models fail to extract information from charts, or do they extract it but fail to use it when forming their prediction? We study this question through layer-wise linear probing and attention analysis on three open-weight VLMs over table and chart evidence, representing the same underlying data. We find consistent evidence for the latter. Chart information is encoded in the models' intermediate representations but does not reach the prediction position, a gap that is absent for tables and holds across all conditions tested. Attention analysis further reveals that this disconnect takes two architecturally distinct forms across model families. These findings reframe the table-chart gap as a failure of how encoded visual information is routed at prediction time, rather than a failure of encoding itself.

Continual learning treats degradation on previously seen data as evidence of failure, a convention inherited from settings with a stationary prediction target, where a correct label remains correct indefinitely. World models do not satisfy this condition. Their prediction target is the environment, which changes, so knowledge that was accurate when acquired may later become false, and discarding it is required behavior rather than a defect. Non-stationary ground truth is well studied in the concept drift literature and in the temporal factuality of language models, but has not been formulated for world models, which are distinctive in that they also encode knowledge that must never be revised. We argue that continual world models require retention stratified by invariance timescale, separating invariants such as physics and object permanence, which must never be revised, from instance-level facts that should be revised as soon as the environment changes. Standard forgetting metrics cannot distinguish a world model that has correctly revised outdated knowledge from one that has suffered catastrophic forgetting, and consequently rank a frozen model highest, while existing physical-reasoning benchmarks evaluate only frozen checkpoints. We propose differential retention, which reports invariant regression testing across the adaptation stream jointly with revision latency, without aggregation.

Skin lesion datasets provide essential information for understanding various skin conditions and developing effective diagnostic tools. They aid the artificial intelligence-based early detection of skin cancer, facilitate treatment planning, and contribute to medical education and research. Published large datasets have partially coverage the subclassifications of the skin lesions. This limitation highlights the need for more expansive and varied datasets to reduce false predictions and help improve the failure analysis for skin lesions. This study presents a diverse dataset comprising 12,345 dermatoscopic images with 38 subclasses of skin lesions collected in Turkiye which comprises different skin types in the transition zone between Europe and Asia. Each subgroup contains high-resolution photos and expert annotations, providing a strong and reliable basis for future research. The detailed analysis of each subgroup provided in this study facilitates targeted research endeavors and enhances the depth of understanding regarding the skin lesions. This dataset distinguishes itself through a diverse structure with 5 super classes, 15 main classes, 38 subclasses and its 12,345 high-resolution dermatoscopic images.

CLIP-based prompt tuning enables pretrained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to efficiently adapt to downstream tasks. Although existing studies have made significant progress, they pay limited attention to changes in the internal attention representations of VLMs during the tuning process. In this paper, we attribute the failure modes of prompt tuning predictions to shifts in foreground attention of the visual encoder, and propose Foreground View-Guided Prompt Tuning (FVG-PT), an adaptive plug-and-play foreground attention guidance module, to alleviate the shifts. Concretely, FVG-PT introduces a learnable Foreground Reliability Gate to automatically enhance the foreground view quality, applies a Foreground Distillation Compensation module to guide visual attention toward the foreground, and further introduces a Prior Calibration module to mitigate generalization degradation caused by excessive focus on the foreground. Experiments on multiple backbone models and datasets show the effectiveness and compatibility of FVG-PT. Codes are available at: https://github.com/JREion/FVG-PT

Localized Representation Steering (LRS) is widely used to correct reasoning pathologies in large language models. However, standard benchmark evaluations can easily be fooled by superficial label overrides, creating a false impression of reasoning circuit repairs. In this work, we propose Cross-Rule Transfer (CRT), a diagnostic framework that audits representational interventions by evaluating them on rule families where the model is natively competent. Evaluating late-layer LRS for a widespread logical failure, contradiction blindness, reveals that the intervention merely injects a global label bias: applying the steering vector to rules the model already handles correctly (99.6% baseline) degrades performance to 40.4% by forcing false contradiction predictions. We support this diagnosis with four complementary controls (direct logit bias equivalence, control vector label-flipping, cross-model grafting, and early-layer steering checks), providing a rigorous methodology to distinguish genuine reasoning repairs from superficial label overrides.

In reinforcement learning for large language models, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) commonly uses a critic to estimate state values and reduce the variance of policy updates. However, we uncover a systematic failure mode in PPO critics, which we call Value Flattening: state values, estimated from multiple Monte Carlo continuations, change sharply across intermediate states while critic predictions remain comparatively flat. We further observe this phenomenon in a controlled FrozenLake environment and find that it becomes more pronounced as the state space grows. Our theoretical and empirical analyses relate Value Flattening to an implicit variance penalty in the critic loss and redundant updates from temporally correlated states with similar gradients. Motivated by these findings, we introduce SParse Proximal Policy Optimization (SP^3O), which applies the value loss to only a few well-separated states in each response to mitigate both effects. Experiments on Qwen3-Base show that SP^3O with only three states supervised per response can mitigate Value Flattening and consistently improve the learned policy across model sizes and evaluation suites. Together, our results identify Value Flattening as an important yet overlooked failure mode of critic learning in standard PPO and show that a simple sparse supervision strategy can mitigate it.

This paper describes our submission for the End-to-end Multi-domain Task Completion Dialog shared task at the 9th Dialog System Technology Challenge (DSTC-9). Participants in the shared task build an end-to-end task completion dialog system which is evaluated by human evaluation and a user simulator based automatic evaluation. Different from traditional pipelined approaches where modules are optimized individually and suffer from cascading failure, we propose an end-to-end dialog system that 1) uses Generative Pretraining 2 (GPT-2) as the backbone to jointly solve Natural Language Understanding, Dialog State Tracking, and Natural Language Generation tasks, 2) adopts Domain and Task Adaptive Pretraining to tailor GPT-2 to the dialog domain before finetuning, 3) utilizes heuristic pre/post-processing rules that greatly simplify the prediction tasks and improve generalizability, and 4) equips a fault tolerance module to correct errors and inappropriate responses. Our proposed method significantly outperforms baselines and ties for first place in the official evaluation. We make our source code publicly available.

We introduce Mosaic, a probabilistic weather forecasting model that addresses two distinct failure modes of spectral degradation in ML-based weather prediction: (1) spectral damping caused by deterministic training against ensemble means; and (2) aliasing artifacts caused by compressive encoding onto a coarse latent grid. Mosaic generates ensemble members through learned functional perturbations and operates on native-resolution grids via mesh-aligned block-sparse attention, a hardware-aligned mechanism that captures long-range dependencies at linear cost by sharing keys and values across spatially adjacent queries. At 1.5° resolution with 214M parameters, Mosaic matches or outperforms models trained on 6times finer resolution on key variables and achieves state-of-the-art results among 1.5° models, producing well-calibrated ensembles whose individual members exhibit near-perfect spectral alignment across all resolved frequencies. A 24-member, 10-day forecast takes under 12\,s on a single H100~GPU. Code is available at https://github.com/maxxxzdn/mosaic.

Visual in-context learning (ICL) enables vision-language models (VLMs) to adapt at test time via demonstration examples, but its effectiveness depends critically on the examples selected. Recent counterfactual selection methods improve ICL by constructing demonstrations that expose how individual attribute changes affect the answer. However, they require multi-stage pipelines involving attribute extraction, caption engineering, and composed image matching. We propose a simpler alternative grounded in a key observation: a model's own prediction errors are natural counterfactual demonstrations that directly encode its failure modes. Our method, SMILE (Self-Mined Visual In-Context Learning from Errors), builds a model-specific pool of hard negatives offline by recording the target VLM's own mistakes. At test time, the prediction serves as a direction signal that surfaces, in the semantic embedding space, the past mistakes most likely to recur for the current query. This prediction-conditioned identification provides a unified mechanism for both closed-set classification and open-ended visual question answering without task-specific design. Across four benchmarks and four VLMs, SMILE delivers an average task-score gain of +3.09 points over the SOTA baseline at 5x lower latency. Project page: https://tree-shu-zhao.github.io/SMILE/

Although AI systems have been applied in various fields and achieved impressive performance, their safety and reliability are still a big concern. This is especially important for safety-critical tasks. One shared characteristic of these critical tasks is their risk sensitivity, where small mistakes can cause big consequences and even endanger life. There are several factors that could be guidelines for the successful deployment of AI systems in sensitive tasks: (i) failure detection and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection; (ii) overfitting identification; (iii) uncertainty quantification for predictions; (iv) robustness to data perturbations. These factors are also challenges of current AI systems, which are major blocks for building safe and reliable AI. Specifically, the current AI algorithms are unable to identify common causes for failure detection. Furthermore, additional techniques are required to quantify the quality of predictions. All these contribute to inaccurate uncertainty quantification, which lowers trust in predictions. Hence obtaining accurate model uncertainty quantification and its further improvement are challenging. To address these issues, many techniques have been proposed, such as regularization methods and learning strategies. As vision and language are the most typical data type and have many open source benchmark datasets, this thesis will focus on vision-language data processing for tasks like classification, image captioning, and vision question answering. In this thesis, we aim to build a safeguard by further developing current techniques to ensure the accurate model uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.

Real-world robot learning is constrained by the cost of collecting experience and evaluating candidate behaviors. Video generation models offer a scalable foundation for visual simulators that predict action outcomes before physical execution. Yet they often favor visual plausibility over accurate action following and coherent robot--object dynamics, while action-conditioned simulators depend on scarce, embodiment-specific data that are difficult to share across incompatible control spaces. We introduce WorldLine, an action-driven visual simulator that decouples transferable dynamics learning from heterogeneous action grounding. WorldLine learns manipulation dynamics from more than 10,000 hours of action-free robot videos and grounds them using over 2,000 hours of action trajectories across more than ten embodiments. An image-space action representation provides a shared control interface across embodiments, while multi-view and failure-enriched training with relational regularization improves interaction-sensitive prediction. Robot-focused few-step distillation enables efficient causal rollout while preserving action-critical motion. Across held-out and out-of-domain settings, WorldLine maintains strong visual quality and robot-motion agreement; on failed trajectories, it improves robot-mask IoU by 0.1626 over the strongest baseline. It predicts trajectory success with 74% mean accuracy across RoboTwin and AgiBot, one percentage point above the strongest baseline. Without RoboTwin training or adaptation, its rollouts improve task success by up to 21.4 percentage points over direct policy execution. Together, these capabilities make WorldLine a scalable and efficient visual simulator for policy evaluation and embodied planning. More results are available at https://zhengsh123.github.io/WorldLine/{project page}.

The executable harness surrounding a GUI model determines how observations are assembled, actions are executed, and verification, recovery, and termination are controlled. Compared with harness optimization for non-GUI agents, automatically optimizing this harness poses three coupled challenges: reconciling model intent with observed visual effects, diagnosing failures under variable execution outcomes, and identifying recurrent failure patterns across tasks and translating them into reusable runtime changes. We introduce GUI-HARVEST, an automatic harness optimizer that enables self-improving GUI agents with frozen backbone models. First, to ground diagnosis in observed action effects, it aligns model outputs and executed actions with before-and-after screenshots, tying findings to specific interface transitions. Second, to account for execution variability, it treats repeated runs of the same task as a joint evidence unit, using within-task comparisons to locate outcome-relevant behavioral differences. Third, it consolidates verified findings across tasks into recurring failure patterns, maps them to bounded source-code edits with predictions recorded before evaluation, and checks the predicted behavioral effects alongside task performance through repeated execution. Experiments on OSWorld-Verified show consistent held-out gains across six general-purpose open, GUI-specialized open, and proprietary backbone models; Qwen3-VL-32B-Instruct gains 12.33 points on the full suite. Frozen-harness transfer improves GPT-5 by 13.87 percentage points on WindowsAgentArena at 50 steps without further optimization. With the same backbone and initial harness, GUI-HARVEST outperforms Self-Harness and Meta-Harness, suggesting that GUI-specific diagnosis and validation help harness improvements generalize to unseen tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/GaryYang12345/GUI-HARVEST.

Building robots that can perceive, reason, and act in dynamic, unstructured environments remains a core challenge. Recent embodied systems often adopt a dual-system paradigm, where System 2 handles high-level reasoning while System 1 executes low-level control. In this work, we refer to System 2 as the embodied brain, emphasizing its role as the cognitive core for reasoning and decision-making in manipulation tasks. Given this role, systematic evaluation of the embodied brain is essential. Yet existing benchmarks emphasize execution success, or when targeting high-level reasoning, suffer from incomplete dimensions and limited task realism, offering only a partial picture of cognitive capability. To bridge this gap, we introduce RoboBench, a benchmark that systematically evaluates multimodal large language models (MLLMs) as embodied brains. Motivated by the critical roles across the full manipulation pipeline, RoboBench defines five dimensions-instruction comprehension, perception reasoning, generalized planning, affordance prediction, and failure analysis-spanning 14 capabilities, 25 tasks, and 6092 QA pairs. To ensure realism, we curate datasets across diverse embodiments, attribute-rich objects, and multi-view scenes, drawing from large-scale real robotic data. For planning, RoboBench introduces an evaluation framework, MLLM-as-world-simulator. It evaluate embodied feasibility by simulating whether predicted plans can achieve critical object-state changes. Experiments on 14 MLLMs reveal fundamental limitations: difficulties with implicit instruction comprehension, spatiotemporal reasoning, cross-scenario planning, fine-grained affordance understanding, and execution failure diagnosis. RoboBench provides a comprehensive scaffold to quantify high-level cognition, and guide the development of next-generation embodied MLLMs. The project page is in https://robo-bench.github.io.

Cross-modal alignment (CA) and cross-modal prediction (CP) are the dominant paradigms for multimodal representation learning, yet there is no systematic understanding of when each succeeds, when each fails, and when cross-modal training helps at all -- a gap that leaves practitioners, especially in scientific domains like biomedicine or astrophysics, with heterogeneous instruments and multiple levels of organization and measurement, unable to diagnose why standard methods underperform the best single modality. We develop a unified linear framework that addresses both questions. Under a spiked signal-plus-noise model with structured cross-modal nuisance correlation, we derive separation ratios for both objectives that expose complementary failure modes: alignment whitens each modality and fails when nuisance is strongly correlated across views; prediction encodes whatever is cross-predictable through a one-sided whitening, with recovery governed by source-modality quality. The resulting phase diagram partitions multimodal problems into four regimes: Both, CA only, CP only, and Neither. We present a data-driven procedure to locate real-world datasets in this diagram using a small labeled subsample, identifying the preferred objective and prediction direction before any cross-modal training. Experiments on synthetic data, stereo-vision benchmarks, image-caption pairs, and real astrophysical data validate the predictions in the nonlinear regime, including the Neither regime where cross-modal training is actively harmful. Our framework lets practitioners diagnose their multimodal problem and choose the right objective before committing to training. Code to reproduce the results is available at https://github.com/IlayMalinyak/mm_align_vs_pred.

World Action Models (WAMs) generate actions together with predicted futures, offering a powerful interface for robot decision making. In contact-rich manipulation, however, visually plausible futures can be physically incomplete: insertion, assembly, search, and reorientation often depend on slip, jamming, contact normals, or small alignment errors that are weakly visible or hidden in RGB. A natural solution is to predict future tactile states, however, we identify tactile pollution, a failure mode where unconstrained tactile-token injection degrades video and action prediction by forcing a visual dynamics model to absorb sparse, local, event-driven contact signals. To address this, we propose Tactile-WAM, a touch-aware WAM with a Tactile Asymmetric Attention Mechanism (TAAM). TAAM combines a VideoClean mask, which blocks video-query access to tactile key/value tokens while preserving action-query access, with a touch-aware bias for action attention. The VideoClean mask protects visual prediction while keeping contact information available for action generation; the touch-aware bias is derived from predicted touch changes and modulates action attention to tactile tokens during denoising. On ManiFeel, Tactile-WAM improves the mean success rate by 38.9% overall and by 86% on contact-rich tasks.

We introduce Mitra-v2, a tabular foundation model that delivers state-of-the-art performance on real-world classification and regression problems, from credit-risk scoring and clinical prediction to equipment-failure detection and house-price estimation. Mitra-v2 is trained only on synthetic data, with a pretraining distribution that is much larger and more diverse than Mitra-v1's. Built on a small 2D Transformer backbone, Mitra-v2 supports longer contexts and larger feature spaces. Improved optimization lets it learn from this larger task distribution. We evaluate Mitra-v2 on the TabArena and TALENT benchmarks, comprising more than 300 real-world datasets under two evaluation protocols. On the full TabArena benchmark, Mitra-v2 delivers state-of-the-art performance at the level of the industry-scale TabFM and EXAONE Tabular models, while surpassing TabPFN-3 by a wide margin in both classification and regression. Mitra-v2 matches the 1.6B-parameter TabFM with only 5% of its size (77M parameters), delivering frontier performance at a fraction of the cost. On TALENT, Mitra-v2 remains among the leading models, clearly outperforming TabPFN-3 and TabICLv2. It also ranks first on classification tasks with more than ten classes, even though it was pretrained only on tasks with at most ten classes. These results make Mitra-v2 one of the strongest and most broadly applicable open tabular foundation models released to date. We release the model weights, the inference and fine-tuning code, and our evaluation results under the Apache-2.0 license.

Reliable pattern recognition systems should exhibit consistent behavior across similar inputs, and their explanations should remain stable. However, most Explainable AI evaluations remain instance centric and do not explicitly quantify whether attribution patterns are consistent across samples that share the same class or represent small variations of the same input. In this work, we propose a novel metric aimed at assessing the consistency of model explanations, ensuring that models consistently reflect the intended objectives and consistency under label-preserving perturbations. We implement this metric using a pre-trained BERT model on the SST-2 sentiment analysis dataset, with additional robustness tests on RoBERTa, DistilBERT, and IMDB, applying SHAP to compute feature importance for various test samples. The proposed metric quantifies the cosine similarity of SHAP values for inputs with the same label, aiming to detect inconsistent behaviors, such as biased reliance on certain features or failure to maintain consistent reasoning for similar predictions. Through a series of experiments, we evaluate the ability of this metric to identify misaligned predictions and inconsistencies in model explanations. These experiments are compared against standard fidelity metrics to assess whether the new metric can effectively identify when a model's behavior deviates from its intended objectives. The proposed framework provides a deeper understanding of model behavior by enabling more robust verification of rationale stability, which is critical for building trustworthy AI systems. By quantifying whether models rely on consistent attribution patterns for similar inputs, the proposed approach supports more robust evaluation of model behavior in practical pattern recognition pipelines. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/anmspro/ESS-XAI-Stability.

Generating executable CAD programs from images requires alignment between visual geometry and symbolic program representations, a capability that current methods fail to learn reliably as design complexity increases. Existing fine-tuning approaches rely on either limited supervised datasets or expensive post-training pipelines, resulting in brittle systems that restrict progress in generative CAD design. We argue that the primary bottleneck lies not in model or algorithmic capacity, but in the scarcity of diverse training examples that align visual geometry with program syntax. This limitation is especially acute because the collection of diverse and verified engineering datasets is both expensive and difficult to scale, constraining the development of robust generative CAD models. We introduce Geometric Inference Feedback Tuning (GIFT), a data augmentation framework that leverages geometric feedback to turn test-time compute into a bootstrapped set of high-quality training samples. GIFT combines two mechanisms: Soft-Rejection Sampling (GIFT-REJECT), which retains diverse high-fidelity programs beyond exact ground-truth matches, and Failure-Driven Augmentation (GIFT-FAIL), which converts near-miss predictions into synthetic training examples that improve robustness on challenging geometries. By amortizing inference-time search into the model parameters, GIFT captures the benefits of test-time scaling while reducing inference compute by 80%. It improves mean IoU by 12% over a strong supervised baseline and remains competitive with more complex multimodal systems, without requiring additional human annotation or specialized architectures.

I describe my solution to the LeHome Challenge 2026, an ICRA 2026 competition on bimanual garment folding. The system placed 1st of 62 teams in the online (simulation) round and 2nd in the real-world final. It improves a vision-language-action (VLA) policy with a reinforcement-learning loop. The policy is its own value function: the same network that predicts actions also predicts success, progress, and a few task-relevant future quantities, and those predictions drive advantage estimation, live failure detection, and candidate selection. The work mostly recombines existing RL ideas with engineering and optimization contributions that can be used together as one recipe or individually: AWR + RECAP combined for flow-matching VLA; an asynchronous distributed training / rollout pipeline through HuggingFace Hub; inference-time hyperparameters optimization via Thompson sampling; a sim-to-real recipe with camera-alignment tooling, heavy augmentation and DAgger-like HIL data collection.

Optical microscopy (OM) enables rapid, label-free imaging of live bacteria and is the standard instrument for species identification across clinical, environmental, and industrial microbiology. Real samples, however, are routinely polymicrobial and may contain organisms never seen during training, and no computer-vision benchmark evaluates multi-label species identification from phase-contrast microscopy (PCM) of such mixtures. We introduce Phase-contrast Optical bEnchmark for Bacterial Identification (PHOEBI), a wet-lab-prepared dataset of 120{,}000 PCM images covering 40 combinations of six rod-shaped species, together with a leave-combinations-out (LCO) protocol that holds out entire species combinations, mirroring a model trained on catalogued mixtures that must recognise new ones. Under LCO, gradient-trained per-image classifiers, from fine-tuned backbones to attention-based multiple-instance learning, collapse on unseen combinations despite high in-distribution accuracy, and the failure lies in how per-image predictions are aggregated rather than in the visual representation. We propose three lightweight anchor-based decoders that read each species' presence against fixed geometric prototypes over a shared frozen tile-feature pool, and they remain stable under the same shift. Without additional training, the same features also support open-set rejection of unseen species and the discovery of a new class from unlabeled test images, with negligible disruption to the known classes.

Clinical trials are pivotal for developing new medical treatments but typically carry risks such as patient mortality and enrollment failure that waste immense efforts spanning over a decade. Applying artificial intelligence (AI) to predict key events in clinical trials holds great potential for providing insights to guide trial designs. However, complex data collection and question definition requiring medical expertise have hindered the involvement of AI thus far. This paper tackles these challenges by presenting a comprehensive suite of 23 meticulously curated AI-ready datasets covering multi-modal input features and 8 crucial prediction challenges in clinical trial design, encompassing prediction of trial duration, patient dropout rate, serious adverse event, mortality rate, trial approval outcome, trial failure reason, drug dose finding, design of eligibility criteria. Furthermore, we provide basic validation methods for each task to ensure the datasets' usability and reliability. We anticipate that the availability of such open-access datasets will catalyze the development of advanced AI approaches for clinical trial design, ultimately advancing clinical trial research and accelerating medical solution development.

Time series forecasting (TSF) increasingly drives decisions in transportation, energy, finance, healthcare, and infrastructure, yet current evaluation remains overly narrow: standard benchmarks reward low held-out error, while robustness studies typically reduce failure to Gaussian noise, random masking, or bounded adversarial perturbations. This obscures the real failure modes of deployed forecasting systems. Input-side anomalies are not merely noisier inputs: they often reflect structured events that alter temporal dynamics, break cross-variable dependencies, induce regime shifts, or propagate from faulty sensors to downstream decisions. These semantic, causal, and system-level failures cannot be faithfully captured by i.i.d. perturbations alone. The rise of TSF foundation models makes this evaluation gap more urgent, as unauditable pretraining corpora make held-out generalization increasingly unreliable. We therefore advocate scenario-grounded stress testing. Each test instance should include historical inputs and future targets, together with a semantic scenario, an explicit failure operator, and a measurable difficulty level. This shift makes evaluation interpretable, attributable, and deployment-relevant and friendly, enabling the community to ask not only which model is accurate, but under what conditions it fails and why.

Generalization, the ability to perform well beyond the training context, is a hallmark of biological and artificial intelligence, yet anticipating unseen failures remains a central challenge. Conventional approaches often take a ``bottom-up'' mechanistic route by reverse-engineering interpretable features or circuits to build explanatory models. While insightful, these methods often struggle to provide the high-level, predictive signals for anticipating failure in real-world deployment. Here, we propose using a ``top-down'' approach to studying generalization failures inspired by medical biomarkers: identifying system-level measurements that serve as robust indicators of a model's future performance. Rather than mapping out detailed internal mechanisms, we systematically design and test network markers to probe structure, function links, identify prognostic indicators, and validate predictions in real-world settings. In image classification, we find that task-relevant geometric properties of in-distribution (ID) object manifolds consistently forecast poor out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. In particular, reductions in two geometric measures, effective manifold dimensionality and utility, predict weaker OOD performance across diverse architectures, optimizers, and datasets. We apply this finding to transfer learning with ImageNet-pretrained models. We consistently find that the same geometric patterns predict OOD transfer performance more reliably than ID accuracy. This work demonstrates that representational geometry can expose hidden vulnerabilities, offering more robust guidance for model selection and AI interpretability.

As modern microservice systems grow increasingly popular and complex-often consisting of hundreds or even thousands of fine-grained, interdependent components-they are becoming more susceptible to frequent and subtle failures. Ensuring system reliability therefore hinges on accurate and efficient failure localization. Traditional failure localization approaches based on small models lack the flexibility to adapt to diverse failure scenarios, while recent LLM-based methods suffer from two major limitations: they often rely on rigid invocation workflows that constrain the model's ability to dynamically explore optimal localization paths, and they require resource-intensive inference, making them cost-prohibitive for real-world deployment. To address these challenges, we explore the use of reinforcement fine-tuning to equip lightweight LLMs with reasoning and self-refinement capabilities, significantly improving the cost-effectiveness and adaptability of LLM-based failure localization. We begin with an empirical study to identify three key capabilities essential for accurate localization. Building on these insights, we propose a progressive multi-stage GRPO fine-tuning framework, which integrates a multi-factor failure localization grader and a recursion-of-thought actor module. The resulting model, ThinkFL, not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art LLMs and baseline methods in localization accuracy but also reduces end-to-end localization latency from minutes to seconds, demonstrating strong potential for real-world applications.

Solving problems through repeated attempts is a sequential modeling task: at each step, the solver receives feedback and decides how to revise their solutions. Predicting whether performance improves, plateaus, or regresses across attempts is central to understanding any iterative problem-solving process in both human learners and autonomous agents. Beyond outcomes, modeling what errors persist and how strategies shift across attempts provides deeper insight into the mechanics of sequential learning. Studying these dynamics requires observing many solvers as they attempt, receive feedback, and revise. Programming courses with automated grading provide this setting, as students iteratively submit code to test suites and receive feedback on every attempt. We therefore curate CodeInsight, a large-scale dataset of over 3 million submissions from 3,286 undergraduates across 2 introductory C++ courses in 2 academic years, with test-case-level outcomes, timestamps, and source code. On this dataset, we build a benchmark that evaluates models spanning parametric, sequential, and generative traditions under a shared calibration-and-scoring protocol, including a Recurrent State Space Model (RSSM) adapted to track solver characteristics through discrete latent variables and an LLM-based predictor that generates explicit solutions. The adapted RSSM achieves the strongest predictive accuracy on three of the four courses. The LLM predictor is less accurate but produces full submissions at each attempt, enabling direct analysis of failure modes. We find that the model's coding proficiency is inversely related to predictive performance in this setting, with the LLM better understood as a generative solver conditioned on context rather than a faithful predictor of solver behavior. We publicly release our code and the dataset on request to facilitate future research.

Failure attribution for LLM-based agentic systems, i.e., identifying which steps in a failure trajectory caused the task to fail, is critical for debugging and improving these systems. Existing approaches either rely on prompting-based pipelines, which are computationally expensive, or require post-training on failure trajectories with step-level error annotations, which are costly to collect and difficult to scale. We argue that a practical failure attribution model should be lightweight and trainable without step-level supervision on failure data. To this end, we address unsupervised failure attribution, i.e., training exclusively on successful trajectories and identifying error steps at inference time given a failure trajectory. We propose OAT, which casts this problem as one-class learning with neural controlled differential equations, modeling the dynamical pattern of successful trajectories in latent space. At inference time, each step in a failure trajectory is assigned an anomaly score based on its deviation from the dynamics learned on successful trajectories, which is then used to form a set of error steps. With training on only 100 successful trajectories, experiments show that OAT is 200--5000 times faster than prompting-based baselines, and, at the same time, consistently outperforms them in both in-domain and out-of-distribution datasets with +20% and +7% F1 scores, respectively, demonstrating that OAT is a promising and efficient direction for diagnosing agentic system failures.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly used to evaluate robot manipulation outcomes, but existing benchmarks offer limited evidence of cross-domain generalization. We introduce FailBench, a benchmark for robot failure detection comprising 2,197 manipulation attempts across 14 public sources (12 real-world, 2 simulated). In FailBench, 75% of failures occur naturally, and six real-world sources come from non-failure-detection datasets. Evaluating 13 VLM-based detectors, we find the best model achieves only 0.77 mean balanced accuracy. Notably, models fine-tuned for failure detection consistently underperform general-purpose VLMs and their own pretrained baselines. Performance depends heavily on required visual evidence: models approach saturation when outcomes depend on observable object motion, but degrade to near-chance (<0.60 balanced accuracy) on contact-intensive assembly tasks. Error analysis reveals a systematic bias toward predicting success under ambiguous evidence, which persists even with increased reasoning effort. Finally, we show that input-level intervention--spatially localizing and cropping outcome-relevant regions--improves the top detector by 2.4 percentage points without extra training.

The deployment of embodied agents in self-driving laboratories could accelerate scientific discovery, yet their reliability is constrained by the irreversible and safety-critical nature of chemical experiments. Progress is further hindered by scarce failure data and the lack of fine-grained evaluation protocols. To address these challenges, we introduce LabRobFail, a failure-centric framework for learning and evaluating robotic failure analysis in chemical laboratories. LabRobFail-Sim injects controllable failures at the control, physics, and semantic levels, enabling the construction of LabRobFail-Data, which contains over 20,000 trajectories across 70+ task scenarios, five failure categories, and 11 fine-grained failure types. LabRobFail-Bench evaluates six capabilities spanning task understanding, failure detection, temporal localization, severity assessment, failure classification, and actionable correction. We further develop LabRobFail-VLM, a domain-specialized vision-language model that generates structured failure diagnoses and recovery instructions. On seen environments, it achieves 90.83% failure-detection accuracy and 77.21% temporal-localization accuracy, substantially outperforming general-purpose VLMs. When integrated as a real-time supervisor, it improves downstream task success rates by 4-16 percentage points, demonstrating the value of fine-grained failure understanding for closed-loop recovery and reliable laboratory autonomy. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/Su-ISE-2001/SciRobo

Deployed multimodal systems can fail in ways that evaluators did not anticipate. In order to find these failures before deployment, we introduce MultiMon, a system that automatically identifies systematic failures -- generalizable, natural-language descriptions of patterns of model failures. To uncover systematic failures, MultiMon scrapes a corpus for examples of erroneous agreement: inputs that produce the same output, but should not. It then prompts a language model (e.g., GPT-4) to find systematic patterns of failure and describe them in natural language. We use MultiMon to find 14 systematic failures (e.g., "ignores quantifiers") of the CLIP text-encoder, each comprising hundreds of distinct inputs (e.g., "a shelf with a few/many books"). Because CLIP is the backbone for most state-of-the-art multimodal systems, these inputs produce failures in Midjourney 5.1, DALL-E, VideoFusion, and others. MultiMon can also steer towards failures relevant to specific use cases, such as self-driving cars. We see MultiMon as a step towards evaluation that autonomously explores the long tail of potential system failures. Code for MULTIMON is available at https://github.com/tsb0601/MultiMon.

Robust robotic manipulation requires reliable failure detection and recovery. Although recent Vision-Language Models (VLMs) show promise in robot failure detection, their generalization is severely limited by the scarcity and narrow coverage of failure data. To address this bottleneck, we propose an automatic framework for generating diverse robotic planning and execution failures across both simulated and real-world environments. Our approach perturbs successful manipulation trajectories to synthesize failures that reflect realistic failure distributions, and leverages VLMs to produce structured step-by-step reasoning traces. This yields FailCoT, a large-scale failure reasoning dataset built upon the RLBench simulator and the BridgeDataV2 real-robot dataset. Using FailCoT, we train Guardian, a multi-view reasoning VLM for unified planning and execution verification. Guardian achieves state-of-the-art performance on three unseen real-world benchmarks: RoboFail, RoboVQA, and our newly introduced UR5-Fail. When integrated with a state-of-the-art LLM-based manipulation policy, it consistently boosts task success rates in both simulation and real-world deployment. These results demonstrate that scaling high-quality failure reasoning data is critical for improving generalization in robotic failure detection. Code, Data, and Models available at https://www.di.ens.fr/willow/research/guardian/.

Reliable application of machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning methods. A fundamental challenge is that models are often unreliable due to overconfidence. In this paper, we estimate a model's reliability by measuring the agreement between its latent space, and the latent space of a foundation model. However, it is challenging to measure the agreement between two different latent spaces due to their incoherence, \eg, arbitrary rotations and different dimensionality. To overcome this incoherence issue, we design a neighborhood agreement measure between latent spaces and find that this agreement is surprisingly well-correlated with the reliability of a model's predictions. Further, we show that fusing neighborhood agreement into a model's predictive confidence in a post-hoc way significantly improves its reliability. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on failure detection across various datasets verify the effectiveness of our method on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings.

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

Long-horizon LLM multi-agent systems face reliability risks invisible to infrastructure monitoring. We propose the ADE Predictive Reliability Framework (ADE-PRF), enabling proactive health trajectory prediction from passive degradation detection. ADE-PRF aggregates 20 heterogeneous signals across five layers into a Trust Margin (TM) metric (39.2-point dynamic range). Triple-method parallel prediction enables 8-hour forecasts: the Exponential method achieves MAE=1.228, Direction Accuracy=76.8%, with 99.65% within +/-10-point tolerance. Production validation spans 380,227 predictions and 280,579 validations across six agent profiles over 15 continuous days, plus seven sandbox-controlled experiments. Key findings include detection of "false prosperity" -- degradation concealed by normal surface metrics -- and immediate TM coupling with ground-truth states upon ADE plugin integration, with 16/20 factors relying on ADE-collected data. Exponential consistently outperforms Kalman. ADE-PRF provides among the earliest reliability quantification with forward-looking warnings for production LLM agents.

Automated detection of software vulnerabilities is a fundamental problem in software security. Existing program analysis techniques either suffer from high false positives or false negatives. Recent progress in Deep Learning (DL) has resulted in a surge of interest in applying DL for automated vulnerability detection. Several recent studies have demonstrated promising results achieving an accuracy of up to 95% at detecting vulnerabilities. In this paper, we ask, "how well do the state-of-the-art DL-based techniques perform in a real-world vulnerability prediction scenario?". To our surprise, we find that their performance drops by more than 50%. A systematic investigation of what causes such precipitous performance drop reveals that existing DL-based vulnerability prediction approaches suffer from challenges with the training data (e.g., data duplication, unrealistic distribution of vulnerable classes, etc.) and with the model choices (e.g., simple token-based models). As a result, these approaches often do not learn features related to the actual cause of the vulnerabilities. Instead, they learn unrelated artifacts from the dataset (e.g., specific variable/function names, etc.). Leveraging these empirical findings, we demonstrate how a more principled approach to data collection and model design, based on realistic settings of vulnerability prediction, can lead to better solutions. The resulting tools perform significantly better than the studied baseline: up to 33.57% boost in precision and 128.38% boost in recall compared to the best performing model in the literature. Overall, this paper elucidates existing DL-based vulnerability prediction systems' potential issues and draws a roadmap for future DL-based vulnerability prediction research. In that spirit, we make available all the artifacts supporting our results: https://git.io/Jf6IA.

Repositories of large software systems have become commonplace. This massive expansion has resulted in the emergence of various problems in these software platforms including identification of (i) bug-prone packages, (ii) critical bugs, and (iii) severity of bugs. One of the important goals would be to mine these bugs and recommend them to the developers to resolve them. The first step to this is that one has to accurately detect the extent of severity of the bugs. In this paper, we take up this task of predicting the severity of bugs in the near future. Contextualized neural models built on the text description of a bug and the user comments about the bug help to achieve reasonably good performance. Further information on how the bugs are related to each other in terms of the ways they affect packages can be summarised in the form of a graph and used along with the text to get additional benefits.

Recent advances in inference-time scaling have significantly improved the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). However, these methods typically rely on repeated generation or external verification. To address this limitation, we introduce CritICL, a novel inference-time framework that improves reasoning while maintaining high efficiency. Our key insight is that LLM failure modes exhibit structured patterns across model scales within the same family. Instead of treating failures as undesirable outputs, CritICL leverages them as a source of guidance. Specifically, we utilize failure modes derived from weaker models and incorporate them into inference through critique-based in-context examples. We propose two variants: CritICL-dynamic, which adaptively predicts input-specific failure modes and retrieves critiques, and CritICL-static, which uses a global failure mode profile to provide stable guidance. Experimental results show that CritICL consistently outperforms standard in-context learning and achieves performance competitive with or superior to test-time scaling methods, while requiring significantly fewer generations and lower token cost. Code available at: https://github.com/umwyf/CRITICL

Trajectories in complex systems often contain structure that is not captured by the population-averaged, scalar statistics traditionally used to describe them. Here we reconstruct, through independent numerical re-simulation rather than literature review, a systematic search across representational forms - from single scalar statistics, through two independent discrete multi-feature classification attempts, to a trajectory-level structural representation and a diagnostic surrogate test, to a continuous low-dimensional compression - applied to the same underlying trajectory ensemble in a critical complex system. Predictive failure is not explained by insufficient correlation: one discrete representation's own strongest individual feature correlates with the target more strongly (r=0.588) than the eventual successful representation's own headline statistic (r=0.540), yet fails to separate the ensemble's two most consequential cases - while the continuous representation succeeds, robustly, across eight independent scale-removal folds (r=0.677-0.717, all p<0.001). The determining factor was not correlation strength but whether the representation preserved the structure relevant to prediction. These results indicate that the choice of representation determines whether predictive structure in complex systems becomes accessible - a scientific variable in its own right, not a downstream analysis choice.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Reward modeling (RM), which captures human preferences to align large language models (LLMs), is increasingly employed in tasks such as model finetuning, response filtering, and ranking. However, due to the inherent complexity of human preferences and the limited coverage of available datasets, reward models often fail under distributional shifts or adversarial perturbations. Existing approaches for identifying such failure modes typically rely on prior knowledge about preference distributions or failure attributes, limiting their practicality in real-world settings where such information is unavailable. In this work, we propose a tractable, preference-distribution agnostic method for discovering reward model failure modes via reward guided controlled decoding. Building on this, we introduce REFORM, a self-improving reward modeling framework that enhances robustness by using the reward model itself to guide the generation of falsely scored responses. These adversarial examples are then used to augment the training data and patch the reward model's misaligned behavior. We evaluate REFORM on two widely used preference datasets Anthropic Helpful Harmless (HH) and PKU Beavertails and demonstrate that it significantly improves robustness without sacrificing reward quality. Notably, REFORM preserves performance both in direct evaluation and in downstream policy training, and further improves alignment quality by removing spurious correlations.

The continuous delivery of modern software requires the execution of many automated pipeline jobs. These jobs ensure the frequent release of new software versions while detecting code problems at an early stage. For TELUS, our industrial partner in the telecommunications field, reliable job execution is crucial to minimize wasted time and streamline Continuous Deployment (CD). In this context, flaky job failures are one of the main issues hindering CD. Prior studies proposed techniques based on machine learning to automate the detection of flaky jobs. While valuable, these solutions are insufficient to address the waste associated with the diagnosis of flaky failures, which remain largely unexplored due to the wide range of underlying causes. This study examines 4,511 flaky job failures at TELUS to identify the different categories of flaky failures that we prioritize based on Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) measures. We identified 46 flaky failure categories that we analyzed using clustering and RFM measures to determine 14 priority categories for future automated diagnosis and repair research. Our findings also provide valuable insights into the evolution and impact of these categories. The identification and prioritization of flaky failure categories using RFM analysis introduce a novel approach that can be used in other contexts.

Autonomous systems, such as self-driving cars and drones, have made significant strides in recent years by leveraging visual inputs and machine learning for decision-making and control. Despite their impressive performance, these vision-based controllers can make erroneous predictions when faced with novel or out-of-distribution inputs. Such errors can cascade into catastrophic system failures and compromise system safety. In this work, we compute Neural Reachable Tubes, which act as parameterized approximations of Backward Reachable Tubes to stress-test the vision-based controllers and mine their failure modes. The identified failures are then used to enhance the system safety through both offline and online methods. The online approach involves training a classifier as a run-time failure monitor to detect closed-loop, system-level failures, subsequently triggering a fallback controller that robustly handles these detected failures to preserve system safety. For the offline approach, we improve the original controller via incremental training using a carefully augmented failure dataset, resulting in a more robust controller that is resistant to the known failure modes. In either approach, the system is safeguarded against shortcomings that transcend the vision-based controller and pertain to the closed-loop safety of the overall system. We validate the proposed approaches on an autonomous aircraft taxiing task that involves using a vision-based controller to guide the aircraft towards the centerline of the runway. Our results show the efficacy of the proposed algorithms in identifying and handling system-level failures, outperforming methods that rely on controller prediction error or uncertainty quantification for identifying system failures.

Since large language models have approached human-level performance on many tasks, it has become increasingly harder for researchers to find tasks that are still challenging to the models. Failure cases usually come from the long-tail distribution - data that an oracle language model could assign a probability on the lower end of its distribution. Current methodology such as prompt engineering or crowdsourcing are insufficient for creating long-tail examples because humans are constrained by cognitive bias. We propose a Logic-Induced-Knowledge-Search (LINK) framework for systematically generating long-tail knowledge statements. Grounded by a symbolic rule, we search for long-tail values for each variable of the rule by first prompting a LLM, then verifying the correctness of the values with a critic, and lastly pushing for the long-tail distribution with a reranker. With this framework we construct a dataset, Logic-Induced-Long-Tail (LINT), consisting of 200 symbolic rules and 50K knowledge statements spanning across four domains. Human annotations find that 84% of the statements in LINT are factually correct. In contrast, ChatGPT and GPT4 struggle with directly generating long-tail statements under the guidance of logic rules, each only getting 56% and 78% of their statements correct. Moreover, their "long-tail" generations in fact fall into the higher likelihood range, and thus are not really long-tail. Our findings suggest that LINK is effective for generating data in the long-tail distribution while enforcing quality. LINT can be useful for systematically evaluating LLMs' capabilities in the long-tail distribution. We challenge the models with a simple entailment classification task using samples from LINT. We find that ChatGPT and GPT4's capability in identifying incorrect knowledge drop by ~3% in the long-tail distribution compared to head distribution.

Large language models (LLMs) possess impressive linguistic capabilities but often fail to faithfully retain factual knowledge, leading to hallucinations and unreliable outputs. Understanding LLMs' knowledge deficiencies by exhaustively evaluating against full-scale knowledge bases is computationally prohibitive, especially for closed-weight models. We propose stochastic error ascent (SEA), a scalable and efficient framework for discovering knowledge deficiencies (errors) in closed-weight LLMs under a strict query budget. Rather than naively probing all knowledge candidates, SEA formulates error discovery as a stochastic optimization process: it iteratively retrieves new high-error candidates by leveraging the semantic similarity to previously observed failures. To further enhance search efficiency and coverage, SEA employs hierarchical retrieval across document and paragraph levels, and constructs a relation directed acyclic graph to model error propagation and identify systematic failure modes. Empirically, SEA uncovers 40.7x more knowledge errors than Automated Capability Discovery and 26.7% more than AutoBencher, while reducing the cost-per-error by 599x and 9x, respectively. Human evaluation confirms the high quality of generated questions, while ablation and convergence analyses validate the contribution of each component in SEA. Further analysis on the discovered errors reveals correlated failure patterns across LLM families and recurring deficits, highlighting the need for better data coverage and targeted fine-tuning in future LLM development.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

In industrial settings, surface defects on steel can significantly compromise its service life and elevate potential safety risks. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low efficiency and high costs. Although automated defect detection approaches based on Convolutional Neural Networks(e.g., Mask R-CNN) have advanced rapidly, their reliability remains challenged due to data annotation uncertainties during deep model training and overfitting issues. These limitations may lead to detection deviations when processing the given new test samples, rendering automated detection processes unreliable. To address this challenge, we first evaluate the detection model's practical performance through calibration data that satisfies the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) condition with test data. Specifically, we define a loss function for each calibration sample to quantify detection error rates, such as the complement of recall rate and false discovery rate. Subsequently, we derive a statistically rigorous threshold based on a user-defined risk level to identify high-probability defective pixels in test images, thereby constructing prediction sets (e.g., defect regions). This methodology ensures that the expected error rate (mean error rate) on the test set remains strictly bounced by the predefined risk level. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the average prediction set size and the risk level on the test set, establishing a statistically rigorous metric for assessing detection model uncertainty. Furthermore, our study demonstrates robust and efficient control over the expected test set error rate across varying calibration-to-test partitioning ratios, validating the method's adaptability and operational effectiveness.