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Five figures: the latency frontier, the per-type matrix, knapsack, the advantage chart, and cost

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  1. README.md +29 -1
  2. accuracy-vs-cost-11.png +3 -0
  3. advantage.png +3 -0
  4. by-decision-type.png +2 -2
  5. knapsack.png +3 -0
README.md CHANGED
@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ All nine systems on all 1,710 questions, 90 per decision type.
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  | `deepseek-v4.1-flash` | 0.511 | ~4 | ~800 ms |
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  | `deepseek-v4-pro` | 0.470 | ~4 | ~900 ms |
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  | `this-that-model-1.0` | 0.406 | 0 | 30.9 ms |
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- | `laya-typed-decisions` | 0.310 | 0 | **25 ms** |
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  | chance | 0.258 | — | — |
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  ## By decision type
@@ -87,6 +87,34 @@ All nine systems on all 1,710 questions, 90 per decision type.
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  | `but_for_cause` | 0.200 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.944 | 1.000 | 0.967 | 0.711 | 0.733 | 0.411 | 0.467 |
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  | `value_of_information` | 0.050 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.844 | 1.000 | 0.944 | 0.922 | 0.689 | 0.033 |
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  ## What the table says that the ranking does not
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  **One decision type defeats almost everything.** On `knapsack_subset` — choose the group that fits
 
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  | `deepseek-v4.1-flash` | 0.511 | ~4 | ~800 ms |
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  | `deepseek-v4-pro` | 0.470 | ~4 | ~900 ms |
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  | `this-that-model-1.0` | 0.406 | 0 | 30.9 ms |
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+ | `laya-typed-decisions` | 0.310 | 0 | **28.5 ms** |
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  | chance | 0.258 | — | — |
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  ## By decision type
 
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  | `but_for_cause` | 0.200 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.944 | 1.000 | 0.967 | 0.711 | 0.733 | 0.411 | 0.467 |
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  | `value_of_information` | 0.050 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.844 | 1.000 | 0.944 | 0.922 | 0.689 | 0.033 |
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+ ## One decision type defeats almost everything
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+
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+ ![knapsack subset](knapsack.png)
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+
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+ `knapsack_subset` asks for the group of items that fits a budget and maximises value. Greedy
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+ selection fails on it about half the time, so it cannot be answered by taking the best-looking
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+ option. Eight of the nine systems land between 0.067 and 0.267 against a chance rate of 0.084. The
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+ ninth is 1.88 B parameters and returns no tokens.
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+
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+ ## Where a small model wins and where it does not
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+
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+ ![advantage over the frontier](advantage.png)
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+
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+ Each bar is `this-that-model-1.1` minus the better of `claude-opus-5` and `gpt-5.6` on that decision
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+ type. Four types go the small model's way, two are a tie at 1.000, and three more are inside a tenth.
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+ The nine that go the other way are worth as much attention: judging that a state does not contain
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+ enough to decide (−0.389) and iterating a cascade to its fixed point (−0.300) are where the gap is
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+ widest.
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+
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+ ## What one decision costs
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+
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+ ![accuracy against cost](accuracy-vs-cost-11.png)
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+
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+ The horizontal axis is not like for like and the chart says so: a hosted system's figure is its
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+ published price, which must cover serving and margin; ours is electricity at 80 W and $0.30/kWh for
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+ the 30.9 ms the card is busy. Read the distance as one order of magnitude rather than five. What it
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+ does show is that one of these is a rounding error on a machine you already own.
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+
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  ## What the table says that the ranking does not
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  **One decision type defeats almost everything.** On `knapsack_subset` — choose the group that fits
accuracy-vs-cost-11.png ADDED

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