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2018-01-03 | 2016-12-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-13", 0.39], ["2016-12-14", 0.307], ["2016-12-14", 0.278], ["2016-12-14", 0.298], ["2016-12-15", 0.341], ["2016-12-15", 0.347], ["2016-12-18", 0.331], ["2016-12-20", 0.335], ["2016-12-20", 0.335], ["2016-12-21", 0.335], ["2016-12-21", 0.355], ["2016-12-21", 0.364], ["2016-12-22", 0.364], ["2016-12-22", 0.364]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/400/ | Amazon has recently launched an "Alexa Prize" competition toward developing an effective "Socialbot" that can "[Engage] customers in a conversation about popular topics such as Entertainment, Fashion, Politics, Sports, and Technology."
Twelve sponsored university teams and some number of additional teams will compete f... | Science & Tech | If and only if the Entrant Team that wins the 2017 Prize has a mean Finals Score equal to 4.0 or higher and maintains a conversation with at least two of the three Interactors for twenty (20) minutes without being stopped by the Judges, Sponsor will provide $1,000,000 U.S. dollars...
so, Will Amazon award the $1M prize... | true | 2017-11-15 | Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-02-25 | 2016-12-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-23", 0.57], ["2016-12-23", 0.605], ["2016-12-24", 0.673], ["2016-12-24", 0.705], ["2016-12-24", 0.705], ["2016-12-24", 0.726], ["2016-12-25", 0.726], ["2016-12-25", 0.762], ["2016-12-25", 0.726], ["2016-12-25", 0.726], ["2016-12-25", 0.762], ["2016-12-26", 0.74], ["2016-12-26", 0.74], ["2016-12-27", 0.74], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/407/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The question of whether large-scale quantum effects could be in operation in the brain is quite controversial (see for example this argument that decoherence in the brain is ultra fast and this recent question about slower decoherence). Yet it's clear that quantum mechanics operates in the brain, and that many biologic... | true | 2017-05-01 | Seeing single photons: more research to come? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-04-25 | 2016-12-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-23", 0.425], ["2016-12-24", 0.31], ["2016-12-24", 0.348], ["2016-12-24", 0.348], ["2016-12-24", 0.336], ["2016-12-24", 0.32], ["2016-12-24", 0.322], ["2016-12-24", 0.32], ["2016-12-24", 0.35], ["2016-12-25", 0.333], ["2016-12-25", 0.35], ["2016-12-26", 0.351], ["2016-12-26", 0.376], ["2016-12-27", 0.376], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/408/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Astronomers may have observed vacuum birefringence, a quantum effect predicted by the theory of quantum electrodynamics (QED) in the 1930s, by studying light behavior in the highly magnetized empty space around neutron star RX J1856.5-3754.
Ordinary space is generally thought to be empty with no effect on the path trav... | true | 2017-04-01 | Vacuum birefringence probably found near neutron stars: more research to come? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-03-01 | 2016-12-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-23", 0.33], ["2016-12-23", 0.37], ["2016-12-24", 0.37], ["2016-12-24", 0.315], ["2016-12-24", 0.315], ["2016-12-24", 0.422], ["2016-12-24", 0.435], ["2016-12-24", 0.428], ["2016-12-25", 0.456], ["2016-12-25", 0.414], ["2016-12-25", 0.4], ["2016-12-26", 0.408], ["2016-12-26", 0.39], ["2016-12-27", 0.389], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/409/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In a recent paper submitted to arXiv, Dutch physicist Erik Verlinde supported the Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) model of gravity, which does not require dark matter, to explain phenomena such as the observed rotational curve of stars.
Two days after Verlinde's submission, on Nov 9, 2016, another paper (S. McGaugh ... | true | 2017-02-01 | A resurgence in interest in modified gravity vs. dark matter? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-06-25 | 2016-12-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-23", 0.55], ["2016-12-23", 0.44], ["2016-12-23", 0.44], ["2016-12-24", 0.297], ["2016-12-24", 0.325], ["2016-12-24", 0.325], ["2016-12-24", 0.325], ["2016-12-25", 0.31], ["2016-12-25", 0.292], ["2016-12-26", 0.293], ["2016-12-26", 0.293], ["2016-12-27", 0.277], ["2016-12-27", 0.277], ["2016-12-28", 0.26], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/410/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Breakthrough Listen project, together with SETI, is now investigating odd pulsating light signals observed by astronomers from Laval University, who suggest the signals may originate from extraterrestrial civilizations. Of the 2.5 million stars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, the team claimed that 234 of them exhi... | true | 2017-03-01 | How will recent claims of 234 SETI signals in SDSS data be treated by the community? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-03 | 2016-12-28 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-28", 0.15], ["2016-12-28", 0.362], ["2016-12-28", 0.382], ["2016-12-29", 0.396], ["2016-12-29", 0.431], ["2016-12-30", 0.445], ["2016-12-30", 0.445], ["2016-12-31", 0.421], ["2017-01-01", 0.425], ["2017-01-01", 0.439], ["2017-01-02", 0.45], ["2017-01-06", 0.459], ["2017-01-06", 0.472], ["2017-01-17", 0.472],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/411/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | From looking at a list of predictions by major banks, it would appear that there is a high degree of consensus and a low degree of uncertainty regarding where the US stock market will stand at the end of 2017. The median S&P 500 index prediction from these prognosticators for a year from now is 2,325, with a low estima... | true | 2017-06-30 | Will 2017 be an up year from the US Stock Market? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-01-03 | 2017-01-06 | [] | binary | [["2017-01-08", 0.33], ["2017-01-10", 0.222], ["2017-01-11", 0.222], ["2017-01-12", 0.217], ["2017-01-14", 0.206], ["2017-01-21", 0.214], ["2017-01-22", 0.21], ["2017-01-25", 0.21], ["2017-01-25", 0.201], ["2017-01-29", 0.201], ["2017-02-05", 0.191], ["2017-02-07", 0.187], ["2017-02-09", 0.195], ["2017-02-11", 0.193], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/416/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The game of Go originated in China over 2,500 years ago. While similar to chess in many ways, Go is much more minimalist in its ruleset and more esoteric in strategy. The aspect of pattern recognition and the huge state space of possible moves in Go (vastly greater than chess) has traditionally challenged computers, an... | true | 2017-12-31 | Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-03-01 | 2017-01-11 | [] | binary | [["2017-01-25", 0.59], ["2017-01-25", 0.59], ["2017-01-25", 0.617], ["2017-01-25", 0.562], ["2017-01-25", 0.562], ["2017-01-26", 0.61], ["2017-01-26", 0.597], ["2017-01-26", 0.597], ["2017-01-26", 0.562], ["2017-01-27", 0.574], ["2017-01-27", 0.565], ["2017-01-27", 0.565], ["2017-01-29", 0.545], ["2017-01-29", 0.559], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/419/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | President Trump, along with leadership in both congressional houses, have repeatedly called for a repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). It is unclear whether such a repeal would replace the law with a new system or simply "revert" to standing law prior to the ACA, perhaps after some time delay for development of a r... | true | 2017-02-15 | Will the Affordable Care Act be repealed before March 1, 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2017-01-12 | ["https://astronomy.com/news/2018/09/two-stars-will-not-merge-and-explode-into-red-fury-in-2022"] | binary | [["2017-01-18", 0.88], ["2017-01-18", 0.495], ["2017-01-18", 0.613], ["2017-01-18", 0.613], ["2017-01-18", 0.658], ["2017-01-19", 0.698], ["2017-01-19", 0.693], ["2017-01-20", 0.672], ["2017-01-20", 0.678], ["2017-01-20", 0.648], ["2017-01-21", 0.633], ["2017-01-22", 0.639], ["2017-01-22", 0.639], ["2017-01-23", 0.64],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/420/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted (technical paper) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a "luminous red nova", a type of nova produced by star collisions. News reports say it could be the brightest object in the ... | true | 2018-01-01 | Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-02-23 | 2017-01-13 | [] | binary | [["2017-01-13", 0.3], ["2017-01-13", 0.3], ["2017-01-13", 0.2], ["2017-01-13", 0.2], ["2017-01-14", 0.184], ["2017-01-14", 0.213], ["2017-01-14", 0.203], ["2017-01-16", 0.228], ["2017-01-16", 0.209], ["2017-01-16", 0.209], ["2017-01-17", 0.203], ["2017-01-17", 0.203], ["2017-01-17", 0.203], ["2017-01-17", 0.203], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/421/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Although no legislation regarding artificial intelligence appears to be on the immediate horizon in the US (see pertinent question), this may not be the case in the EU. Per This Guardian article (among other reports), a proposed European Parliament motion would include a number of provisions including a call to:
Create... | true | 2017-02-01 | Will the European Parliament pass rules granting AI personhood, among other provisions? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-06-05 | 2017-01-24 | [] | binary | [["2017-01-25", 0.12], ["2017-01-25", 0.275], ["2017-01-25", 0.275], ["2017-01-25", 0.24], ["2017-01-25", 0.24], ["2017-01-25", 0.368], ["2017-01-26", 0.312], ["2017-01-26", 0.31], ["2017-01-26", 0.326], ["2017-01-26", 0.334], ["2017-01-26", 0.316], ["2017-01-27", 0.322], ["2017-01-27", 0.328], ["2017-01-28", 0.328], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/425/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | According to the official website, five finalists have been chosen in the Google Lunar X-Prize, which is a challenge to successfully send an operating vehicle that lands on the moon, travels 500 meters, and returns images to Earth.
Will the $20 million X-prize be awarded for a mission launched in 2017?
Resolution by of... | true | 2017-07-01 | Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-07-18 | 2017-01-30 | [] | binary | [["2017-01-31", 0.065], ["2017-01-31", 0.077], ["2017-01-31", 0.108], ["2017-01-31", 0.118], ["2017-01-31", 0.118], ["2017-01-31", 0.118], ["2017-02-01", 0.182], ["2017-02-01", 0.169], ["2017-02-01", 0.168], ["2017-02-02", 0.168], ["2017-02-02", 0.168], ["2017-02-02", 0.168], ["2017-02-02", 0.179], ["2017-02-02", 0.179... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/427/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Solid metallic hydrogen has apparently been recently created in the lab. If verified (see some doubts raised here), this could be a big deal (see accompanying question on citations), as the substance has been theorized for decades and may have very interesting properties.
Along with superconductivity (see accompanying ... | true | 2017-06-15 | Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-03-27 | 2017-02-01 | [] | binary | [["2017-02-01", 0.76], ["2017-02-02", 0.675], ["2017-02-02", 0.643], ["2017-02-02", 0.643], ["2017-02-03", 0.712], ["2017-02-03", 0.678], ["2017-02-04", 0.67], ["2017-02-05", 0.67], ["2017-02-05", 0.696], ["2017-02-05", 0.705], ["2017-02-09", 0.693], ["2017-02-09", 0.682], ["2017-02-09", 0.682], ["2017-02-15", 0.656], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/429/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The Case-Schiller 20-city composite housing index is a well-reference tracker of US home prices.
Published monthly, the index was (arguably) in decline from its inception in late 2006 until mid 2012. Since then it has seen a steady rise (underlying seasonal fluctuations) from a low of 134, to 192 as of November 2016.
T... | true | 2017-12-01 | Higher US housing prices in 2017? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-03-30 | 2017-02-03 | [] | binary | [["2017-02-03", 0.83], ["2017-02-04", 0.79], ["2017-02-04", 0.79], ["2017-02-04", 0.743], ["2017-02-04", 0.814], ["2017-02-04", 0.814], ["2017-02-04", 0.778], ["2017-02-04", 0.786], ["2017-02-04", 0.808], ["2017-02-05", 0.811], ["2017-02-05", 0.797], ["2017-02-05", 0.793], ["2017-02-05", 0.801], ["2017-02-06", 0.78], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/430/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the world wondered "What happens next?" The vote, although a referendum vote to assess the will of the people, did not by itself cause the UK to leave the European Union. The mechanism for doing so is Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, and Brexit does not formally begin unt... | true | 2017-03-01 | Article 50 triggered by UK by end of March 2017? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-12-20 | 2017-02-08 | [] | binary | [["2017-02-09", 0.835], ["2017-02-12", 0.677], ["2017-02-15", 0.645], ["2017-02-24", 0.625], ["2017-02-27", 0.594], ["2017-03-01", 0.603], ["2017-03-04", 0.589], ["2017-03-06", 0.607], ["2017-03-07", 0.607], ["2017-03-13", 0.616], ["2017-03-29", 0.612], ["2017-03-31", 0.609], ["2017-04-01", 0.609], ["2017-04-13", 0.604... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/432/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | 2017 began with an assertion by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that his military was ready to test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at "any time, any place." South Korean observers confirmed that such a launch may be imminent.
ICBMs are typically defined as capable of traveling more than 5,500 km (3... | true | 2018-03-01 | Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-01-04 | 2017-02-11 | [] | binary | [["2017-02-11", 0.36], ["2017-02-13", 0.266], ["2017-02-13", 0.178], ["2017-02-15", 0.19], ["2017-02-18", 0.18], ["2017-03-03", 0.209], ["2017-03-03", 0.226], ["2017-03-06", 0.228], ["2017-03-08", 0.22], ["2017-03-13", 0.212], ["2017-03-13", 0.215], ["2017-03-24", 0.214], ["2017-05-06", 0.243], ["2017-05-07", 0.225], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/434/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Set in 2014, the world record for a standard 26.2 marathon is 2:02:57. Looking to push the limits of human performance, Nike announced in December 2016 a concerted effort, called Breaking2, to complete a marathon in under two hours in 2017. The Oregon company enlisted the help of three of the world's best marathoners: ... | true | 2017-12-13 | Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2017-02-11 | [] | binary | [["2017-02-14", 0.37], ["2017-02-15", 0.287], ["2017-02-16", 0.288], ["2017-02-17", 0.308], ["2017-02-18", 0.289], ["2017-02-18", 0.297], ["2017-02-23", 0.303], ["2017-02-24", 0.332], ["2017-03-04", 0.327], ["2017-03-09", 0.319], ["2017-03-10", 0.306], ["2017-03-10", 0.31], ["2017-03-13", 0.306], ["2017-03-13", 0.304],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/435/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | In February 2017, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis reiterated a commitment to diplomacy in the South China Sea - a region recognized as one of the world’s most volatile international hotspots - while asserting that China has overstepped its bounds in the region.
The sea is known by different names in the countrie... | true | 2018-03-15 | Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-03-21 | 2017-02-11 | [] | binary | [["2017-02-13", 0.81], ["2017-02-18", 0.695], ["2017-02-23", 0.72], ["2017-02-28", 0.714], ["2017-03-09", 0.701], ["2017-03-20", 0.705], ["2017-03-22", 0.706], ["2017-03-28", 0.684], ["2017-04-18", 0.676], ["2017-04-25", 0.639], ["2017-05-08", 0.617], ["2017-05-14", 0.635], ["2017-05-21", 0.629], ["2017-06-09", 0.634],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/436/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The terms of Great Britain's exit ("Brexit") from the European Union state that once the nation delivers notice of intent to leave the union, a two-year negotiation period commences for the nation to redefine its relationship with the remaining member states. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union sets forth the ex... | true | 2019-02-01 | Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-05-08 | 2017-03-09 | [] | binary | [["2017-03-18", 0.45], ["2017-03-18", 0.325], ["2017-03-18", 0.325], ["2017-03-19", 0.432], ["2017-03-19", 0.438], ["2017-03-19", 0.438], ["2017-03-20", 0.368], ["2017-03-20", 0.368], ["2017-03-20", 0.317], ["2017-03-20", 0.362], ["2017-03-20", 0.348], ["2017-03-20", 0.332], ["2017-03-20", 0.343], ["2017-03-20", 0.33],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/448/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The French presidential election will be held on 23rd April (first round) and 7th May (second round). Marine le Pen is a candidate for the "Front National" party.
More information, including recent polls, is available on on Wikipedia.
Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the French president... | true | 2017-04-22 | Will Marine le Pen win the French presidential Election ? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-30 | 2017-03-10 | [] | binary | [["2017-03-13", 0.25], ["2017-03-13", 0.233], ["2017-03-13", 0.313], ["2017-03-14", 0.3], ["2017-03-14", 0.289], ["2017-03-14", 0.297], ["2017-03-15", 0.319], ["2017-03-16", 0.313], ["2017-03-20", 0.32], ["2017-03-21", 0.32], ["2017-03-28", 0.345], ["2017-03-29", 0.376], ["2017-03-30", 0.376], ["2017-03-30", 0.387], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/449/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Until 1991, the Soviet Union encompassed 22.4 million square kilometers, clearly claiming the title of the largest nation on Earth. That title is retained today by the Russian Federation, although diminished by the independence of the 14 nations that broke away from the Soviet Union in the 1990s.
A degree of nostalgia ... | true | 2017-09-15 | Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-08-27 | 2017-03-12 | [] | binary | [["2017-03-13", 0.6], ["2017-03-13", 0.62], ["2017-03-13", 0.62], ["2017-03-13", 0.49], ["2017-03-13", 0.458], ["2017-03-14", 0.458], ["2017-03-14", 0.41], ["2017-03-14", 0.42], ["2017-03-15", 0.431], ["2017-03-16", 0.432], ["2017-03-16", 0.432], ["2017-03-17", 0.421], ["2017-03-18", 0.471], ["2017-03-19", 0.471], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/451/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Season 6 of HBO's hit drama Game of Thrones ended with Daenerys Targaryen leading an invading fleet (and three rather large dragons) toward Westeros. Meanwhile Jon Snow has declared himself "King in the North."
There is arguably some momentum toward Snow and Targaryan emerging as the two strong and sympathetic characte... | true | 2017-04-15 | Will there be a Game of Thrones episode airing in 2017, in which Jon Snow bends the knee to Daenerys Targaryen? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-10-30 | 2017-03-22 | [] | binary | [["2017-03-22", 0.15], ["2017-03-22", 0.153], ["2017-03-23", 0.269], ["2017-03-23", 0.3], ["2017-03-24", 0.292], ["2017-03-26", 0.292], ["2017-03-26", 0.315], ["2017-03-27", 0.31], ["2017-03-28", 0.31], ["2017-03-29", 0.318], ["2017-03-30", 0.3], ["2017-03-31", 0.311], ["2017-03-31", 0.307], ["2017-04-01", 0.288], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/453/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The ongoing reports that Russia acted to influence the 2016 US Presidential Election in Trump's favor reached a dramatic new point in mid-March 2017, with FBI director announcing during a senate hearing that the FBI is continuing investigation into Russia's election interference and that
That includes investigating the... | true | 2017-07-23 | Any charges by end of 2017 by FBI's investigation of Russia-Trump campaign ties? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-06-21 | 2017-04-19 | [] | binary | [["2017-04-19", 0.9], ["2017-04-19", 0.775], ["2017-04-20", 0.775], ["2017-04-21", 0.738], ["2017-04-21", 0.738], ["2017-04-22", 0.718], ["2017-04-23", 0.719], ["2017-04-23", 0.713], ["2017-04-23", 0.713], ["2017-04-23", 0.654], ["2017-04-25", 0.681], ["2017-04-25", 0.681], ["2017-04-25", 0.67], ["2017-04-28", 0.668], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/460/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The February 2016 detection of gravitational waves by the earth-bound LIGO observatory heralded the beginning of gravitational-wave astronomy. Much as other forms of astronomy collect information by observing visible light, infrared, or x-rays, gravitational-wave astronomy observes the universe via the ripples in space... | true | 2017-05-15 | LISA chosen by ESA to move forward? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-02-03 | 2017-04-19 | [] | binary | [["2017-04-19", 0.72], ["2017-04-19", 0.72], ["2017-04-20", 0.505], ["2017-04-21", 0.495], ["2017-04-21", 0.495], ["2017-04-22", 0.444], ["2017-04-23", 0.42], ["2017-04-25", 0.429], ["2017-04-26", 0.438], ["2017-05-01", 0.438], ["2017-05-01", 0.45], ["2017-05-02", 0.475], ["2017-05-02", 0.488], ["2017-05-08", 0.488], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/461/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Sepsis, also known as blood poisoning, is an infection that spans multiple systems of the body, often leading to loss of blood pressure, organ failure, and death. Sepsis is the leading cause of death in hospitals, claiming around 300,000 people per year in the United States. Paul Marik, a doctor in Norfolk, VA developi... | true | 2018-02-19 | Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-05-16 | 2017-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2017-04-27", 0.125], ["2017-04-27", 0.125], ["2017-04-27", 0.133], ["2017-04-27", 0.148], ["2017-04-27", 0.178], ["2017-04-27", 0.189], ["2017-04-28", 0.186], ["2017-04-28", 0.187], ["2017-04-28", 0.206], ["2017-04-29", 0.206], ["2017-04-30", 0.208], ["2017-04-30", 0.208], ["2017-05-01", 0.185], ["2017-05-01", 0.185... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/463/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | A recent stunning and controversial claim by a group led by Tom Deméré, has emerged that a site in California contains fossil mammoth bones dating to ~130,000 BC that appear to have been broken and manipulated by human (or possibly other hominid) tools. This would predate by more than 1000 centuries the current general... | true | 2017-11-15 | Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-05-16 | 2017-05-13 | [] | binary | [["2017-05-13", 0.93], ["2017-05-13", 0.915], ["2017-05-13", 0.917], ["2017-05-13", 0.92], ["2017-05-13", 0.92], ["2017-05-14", 0.938], ["2017-05-14", 0.927], ["2017-05-14", 0.927], ["2017-05-14", 0.893], ["2017-05-14", 0.888], ["2017-05-14", 0.888], ["2017-05-14", 0.894], ["2017-05-14", 0.844], ["2017-05-15", 0.833], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/465/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | There are numerous stories in the news about a giant slimy unidentified sea creature that has washed up on shore in Indonesia.
There is speculation as to whether the creature is (a) a giant squid or octopus, (b) a whale, (c) Cthulu's tiny spawn, or (d) some other unknown creature.
Will the unidentified carcass turn out... | true | 2017-05-15 | Is the giant rotting sea thing just a whale? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-01 | 2017-05-17 | [] | binary | [["2017-05-17", 0.6], ["2017-05-20", 0.552], ["2017-05-21", 0.467], ["2017-05-22", 0.464], ["2017-05-24", 0.471], ["2017-05-26", 0.48], ["2017-05-27", 0.475], ["2017-05-29", 0.477], ["2017-05-30", 0.476], ["2017-06-01", 0.473], ["2017-06-03", 0.468], ["2017-06-04", 0.462], ["2017-06-11", 0.462], ["2017-06-12", 0.458], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/466/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Donald J. Trump is the President of the US as of May 2017. However his term thus far has been beset by a certain level of chaos on many fronts. As a followup to a standing but closed question on whether Trump will still be President in two years, here we extend the timeline to 2019 and the beginning of the next Preside... | true | 2017-12-01 | Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-01-10 | 2017-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2017-05-20", 0.16], ["2017-05-20", 0.12], ["2017-05-20", 0.187], ["2017-05-20", 0.187], ["2017-05-20", 0.214], ["2017-05-20", 0.217], ["2017-05-20", 0.217], ["2017-05-20", 0.203], ["2017-05-20", 0.215], ["2017-05-20", 0.215], ["2017-05-20", 0.286], ["2017-05-20", 0.28], ["2017-05-20", 0.255], ["2017-05-21", 0.255], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/467/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | NASA’s Kepler Mission revealed that the star KIC 8462852, a.k.a. "Tabby's Star" displays severe, aperiodic dips in brightness that have so far defied conventional astrophysical explanations.
Several explanations for this behavior have been put forward, ranging from a family of comets, to the indigestive aftereffects of... | true | 2017-06-30 | Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-05-26 | 2017-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2017-05-24", 0.64], ["2017-05-24", 0.57], ["2017-05-24", 0.397], ["2017-05-24", 0.397], ["2017-05-24", 0.255], ["2017-05-24", 0.255], ["2017-05-24", 0.214], ["2017-05-24", 0.214], ["2017-05-24", 0.171], ["2017-05-24", 0.171], ["2017-05-24", 0.139], ["2017-05-24", 0.145], ["2017-05-24", 0.145], ["2017-05-25", 0.136],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/470/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | The last several years have seen stunning advances by artificial Go contestants. Google's AlphaGo program has seen particular success. After sealing a stunning 4-1 victory over Go grandmaster Lee Sedol, an updated version of Alphago, playing in online forums using the account name 'Master', has swept through the Go fie... | true | 2017-05-26 | OK, fine, can FIVE human Go masters defeat AlphaGo? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-31 | 2017-05-29 | [] | binary | [["2017-06-01", 0.68], ["2017-06-09", 0.546], ["2017-06-14", 0.645], ["2017-06-20", 0.672], ["2017-06-26", 0.641], ["2017-07-01", 0.621], ["2017-07-09", 0.618], ["2017-07-17", 0.609], ["2017-07-22", 0.58], ["2017-07-28", 0.579], ["2017-08-03", 0.562], ["2017-08-09", 0.519], ["2017-08-14", 0.513], ["2017-08-19", 0.519],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/471/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Bitcoin (BTC), the first significant blockchain-based "cryptocurrency" has grown from near zero at its advent in 2013 to a market capitalization of about $38B USB as of June 2017 question launch. (see current market cap and time series here.) While Bitcoin is still the largest, hundreds of other blockchain-based curren... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-06-09 | 2017-06-04 | [] | binary | [["2017-06-06", 0.79], ["2017-06-06", 0.8], ["2017-06-06", 0.8], ["2017-06-06", 0.8], ["2017-06-07", 0.8], ["2017-06-07", 0.77], ["2017-06-07", 0.75], ["2017-06-07", 0.763], ["2017-06-07", 0.763], ["2017-06-07", 0.776], ["2017-06-07", 0.786], ["2017-06-08", 0.786]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/474/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Conservative party headed by Prime Minister May called a snap election for June 8 and initially were predicted to win in a landslide as polls showed them getting a share of the votes 20 to 25 percent higher than the Labour party.
This has changed in the last few weeks with the most recent polls showing the percenta... | true | 2017-06-08 | Will the UK elections lead to an absolute majority for one party in parliament? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2017-06-06 | [] | binary | [["2017-06-09", 0.255], ["2017-06-15", 0.201], ["2017-06-19", 0.198], ["2017-06-24", 0.207], ["2017-07-01", 0.205], ["2017-07-17", 0.194], ["2017-07-22", 0.218], ["2017-07-26", 0.218], ["2017-08-04", 0.218], ["2017-08-10", 0.169], ["2017-08-15", 0.166], ["2017-08-18", 0.164], ["2017-08-29", 0.164], ["2017-09-02", 0.153... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/475/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Mash together drones, Uber, and driverless cars – hallmarks of our age – and you get flying autonomous taxis. Flying cars are almost a cliche in futuristic fiction, but have never been closer to reality.
Multiple companies are developing flying passenger vehicles, including Ehang, E-volo, Airbus AeroMobil, Lilium Aviat... | true | 2019-05-15 | Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2017-06-09 | [] | binary | [["2017-06-13", 0.7], ["2017-06-13", 0.687], ["2017-06-13", 0.687], ["2017-06-13", 0.653], ["2017-06-13", 0.656], ["2017-06-14", 0.67], ["2017-06-15", 0.674], ["2017-06-15", 0.659], ["2017-06-15", 0.667], ["2017-06-16", 0.65], ["2017-06-16", 0.652], ["2017-06-19", 0.642], ["2017-06-19", 0.642], ["2017-06-21", 0.606], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/478/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Industry "disruption" is a Silicon Valley buzzword. Companies like Netflix and Uber have upended (or just plain ended, in the case of movie rentals) entire industries. Such disruption rarely comes without pushback or controversy, however.
Rentberry is an auction-style market for rental properties. Users submit bids of ... | true | 2018-04-15 | Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-29 | 2017-06-11 | [] | binary | [["2017-06-18", 0.25], ["2017-06-19", 0.545], ["2017-06-20", 0.554], ["2017-06-21", 0.557], ["2017-06-22", 0.55], ["2017-06-23", 0.558], ["2017-06-24", 0.561], ["2017-06-28", 0.559], ["2017-06-29", 0.533], ["2017-06-30", 0.535], ["2017-07-01", 0.532], ["2017-07-02", 0.525], ["2017-07-07", 0.52], ["2017-07-14", 0.525], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/479/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Self-driving trucks are advancing quickly toward reality, and both the economic and the environmental arguments in their favor are quite strong. Major tech-industry players, notably Google and Uber, are making rapid progress. The consensus (as of 6/2017) on this currently open Metaculus question predicts that the first... | true | 2018-06-30 | Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-07-03 | 2017-06-19 | [] | binary | [["2017-06-19", 0.33], ["2017-06-20", 0.476], ["2017-06-20", 0.462], ["2017-06-20", 0.487], ["2017-06-21", 0.487], ["2017-06-21", 0.411], ["2017-06-22", 0.396], ["2017-06-22", 0.401], ["2017-06-23", 0.388], ["2017-06-24", 0.382], ["2017-06-25", 0.376], ["2017-06-27", 0.375], ["2017-06-27", 0.371], ["2017-06-28", 0.37],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/481/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In mid-January of 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- kicked the news media into high gear by predicting the existence of Planet Nine, a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. Their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years, and a super-Earth ma... | true | 2017-12-31 | Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-08 | 2017-06-28 | [] | binary | [["2017-07-01", 0.55], ["2017-07-02", 0.765], ["2017-07-03", 0.827], ["2017-07-04", 0.826], ["2017-07-05", 0.862], ["2017-07-06", 0.758], ["2017-07-06", 0.666], ["2017-07-09", 0.678], ["2017-07-11", 0.678], ["2017-07-11", 0.675], ["2017-07-14", 0.599], ["2017-07-15", 0.574], ["2017-07-17", 0.574], ["2017-07-17", 0.597]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/484/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | No astronaut has launched into space from American soil since the final flight of the space shuttle in 2011. Although the development of commercial space carriers has seen numerous successful launches of cargo, crewed human spaceflight remains the next major milestone.
When NASA's commercial crew development program be... | true | 2018-02-01 | First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-19 | 2017-07-10 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_controversies#Boycotts"] | binary | [["2017-07-13", 0.625], ["2017-07-13", 0.625], ["2017-07-13", 0.747], ["2017-07-14", 0.77], ["2017-07-14", 0.77], ["2017-07-14", 0.787], ["2017-07-15", 0.81], ["2017-07-16", 0.81], ["2017-07-16", 0.798], ["2017-07-17", 0.781], ["2017-07-17", 0.755], ["2017-07-17", 0.723], ["2017-07-17", 0.723], ["2017-07-17", 0.742], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/490/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.
The decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA... | true | 2018-01-01 | Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-02-04 | 2017-07-20 | [] | binary | [["2017-07-23", 0.895], ["2017-07-24", 0.847], ["2017-07-24", 0.847], ["2017-07-24", 0.723], ["2017-07-24", 0.633], ["2017-07-25", 0.616], ["2017-07-26", 0.616], ["2017-07-27", 0.603], ["2017-07-28", 0.578], ["2017-07-30", 0.578], ["2017-07-30", 0.578], ["2017-08-01", 0.531], ["2017-08-01", 0.53], ["2017-08-02", 0.521]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/494/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | One of the goals of Metaculus is to produce well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts. According to the Metaculus FAQ: "Like many mental capabilities, prediction is a talent that persists over time and is a skill that can be developed. By giving steady quantitative feedback and assessment, predictors can improve their sk... | true | 2017-10-15 | Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-12 | 2017-07-20 | [] | binary | [["2017-07-22", 0.85], ["2017-07-22", 0.85], ["2017-07-22", 0.9], ["2017-07-22", 0.885], ["2017-07-22", 0.845], ["2017-07-23", 0.81], ["2017-07-23", 0.81], ["2017-07-23", 0.77], ["2017-07-23", 0.675], ["2017-07-24", 0.639], ["2017-07-24", 0.639], ["2017-07-24", 0.636], ["2017-07-25", 0.636], ["2017-07-25", 0.628], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/496/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Metaculus prediction uses a sophisticated model to calibrate and weight each user, ideally resulting in a prediction that's better than the best of the community.
Over the next 50 questions to resolve, will it achieve that goal?
This question will resolve positive if the Brier score of the Metaculus prediction is l... | true | 2017-10-20 | Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-05 | 2017-07-21 | [] | binary | [["2017-07-22", 0.6], ["2017-07-22", 0.447], ["2017-07-22", 0.447], ["2017-07-22", 0.358], ["2017-07-23", 0.413], ["2017-07-23", 0.426], ["2017-07-23", 0.426], ["2017-07-24", 0.374], ["2017-07-24", 0.438], ["2017-07-25", 0.438], ["2017-07-25", 0.459], ["2017-07-25", 0.432], ["2017-07-25", 0.448], ["2017-07-25", 0.462],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/497/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The U.S. presidential campaign of Donald J. Trump is currently under investigation by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III. Mueller was appointed Special Counsel by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, in the wake of President Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey. (Rosenstein's boss, Attorney General James Se... | true | 2017-09-01 | Will Trump (try to) fire Mueller? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-18 | 2017-07-24 | [] | binary | [["2017-07-27", 0.59], ["2017-07-28", 0.59], ["2017-07-28", 0.493], ["2017-07-28", 0.493], ["2017-07-28", 0.516], ["2017-07-28", 0.506], ["2017-07-29", 0.506], ["2017-07-29", 0.497], ["2017-07-30", 0.442], ["2017-07-30", 0.442], ["2017-07-30", 0.443], ["2017-07-30", 0.446], ["2017-07-30", 0.437], ["2017-07-30", 0.437],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/499/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Since 2005, Florida citrus growers have been plagued by a disease affect their trees called citrus greening disease, or huanglongbing. The disease, which has dramatically impacted the state's citrus production, is carried by two species of psyllid, a flying sap-sucking insect.
To protect the groves, the company Intelle... | true | 2017-12-15 | Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-08-02 | 2017-07-27 | [] | binary | [["2017-07-30", 0.9], ["2017-07-30", 0.695], ["2017-07-31", 0.695], ["2017-07-31", 0.697], ["2017-07-31", 0.703], ["2017-08-01", 0.682], ["2017-08-01", 0.682], ["2017-08-01", 0.694], ["2017-08-02", 0.694], ["2017-08-03", 0.692], ["2017-08-03", 0.692], ["2017-08-04", 0.7], ["2017-08-04", 0.709], ["2017-08-04", 0.754], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/501/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The endeavor known as "Sci-Hub" has been archiving and making freely available scholarly articles from a wide swath of publishers. Several publishers have sued, decrying this as copyright infringement and piracy.
Recent research estimates that 69% of all scholarly articles ever published are archived on Sci-Hub, includ... | true | 2017-11-27 | Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-11-06 | 2017-08-07 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-10", 0.08], ["2017-08-10", 0.22], ["2017-08-10", 0.182], ["2017-08-10", 0.205], ["2017-08-10", 0.211], ["2017-08-10", 0.211], ["2017-08-11", 0.203], ["2017-08-11", 0.193], ["2017-08-11", 0.219], ["2017-08-11", 0.225], ["2017-08-11", 0.23], ["2017-08-11", 0.21], ["2017-08-11", 0.223], ["2017-08-12", 0.218], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/508/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Trump's presidency has had a rough start. Already starting with a small electoral vote victory, successive scandals and policy defeats have dropped Trump's approval rating down to below 40% as of August 5th 2017, according to most pollsters. Mueller's investigation will likely put further pressure on the Administration... | true | 2017-11-08 | Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2017-08-09 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-13", 0.1], ["2017-08-16", 0.233], ["2017-08-19", 0.237], ["2017-08-23", 0.233], ["2017-08-27", 0.252], ["2017-08-29", 0.245], ["2017-09-02", 0.242], ["2017-09-06", 0.249], ["2017-09-12", 0.25], ["2017-09-16", 0.245], ["2017-09-20", 0.246], ["2017-10-01", 0.248], ["2017-10-04", 0.251], ["2017-10-09", 0.252], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/509/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Tensions are high in the Korean peninsula, with bellicose rhetoric emanating from both North Korean and US governments.
Will North Korea attack another country, causing greater than one hundred fatalities in a single day before the end of 2020?
This question will resolve positive if greater than 100 deaths in a single ... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-15 | 2017-08-11 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-14", 0.1], ["2017-08-14", 0.125], ["2017-08-14", 0.317], ["2017-08-14", 0.288], ["2017-08-14", 0.292], ["2017-08-14", 0.292], ["2017-08-14", 0.302], ["2017-08-14", 0.296], ["2017-08-14", 0.283], ["2017-08-14", 0.287], ["2017-08-14", 0.296], ["2017-08-15", 0.296], ["2017-08-15", 0.289], ["2017-08-15", 0.289],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/510/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The ongoing investigation into the potential role of Russia in the 2016 US Presidential Election has continued to heat up, with appointment by deputy Attorney General Rosenstein of former FBI director Robert Mueller to investigate
any links and/or coordination between Russian government and individuals associated with ... | true | 2017-11-15 | Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-09-14 | 2017-08-12 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-12", 0.4], ["2017-08-12", 0.187], ["2017-08-12", 0.187], ["2017-08-12", 0.265], ["2017-08-12", 0.278], ["2017-08-12", 0.278], ["2017-08-12", 0.333], ["2017-08-12", 0.371], ["2017-08-12", 0.346], ["2017-08-12", 0.344], ["2017-08-13", 0.344], ["2017-08-13", 0.319], ["2017-08-13", 0.32], ["2017-08-13", 0.311], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/511/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the "fear gauge". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.
To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corre... | true | 2017-08-31 | A jump in market volatility over the coming month? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-10-30 | 2017-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-16", 0.3], ["2017-08-16", 0.3], ["2017-08-16", 0.283], ["2017-08-16", 0.283], ["2017-08-16", 0.336], ["2017-08-16", 0.33], ["2017-08-16", 0.354], ["2017-08-16", 0.354], ["2017-08-16", 0.359], ["2017-08-17", 0.333], ["2017-08-17", 0.333], ["2017-08-17", 0.345], ["2017-08-18", 0.33], ["2017-08-18", 0.336], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/515/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The ongoing investigation into the potential role of Russia in the 2016 US Presidential Election has continued to heat up, with appointment by deputy Attorney General Rosenstein of former FBI director Robert Mueller.
Paul Manafort was Trump's campaign manager from June to mid-August 2016, and was reportedly present at ... | true | 2017-09-15 | Will Paul Manafort be charged with a crime by Halloween? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-06 | 2017-08-15 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-16", 0.1], ["2017-08-17", 0.425], ["2017-08-19", 0.504], ["2017-08-22", 0.521], ["2017-08-23", 0.519], ["2017-08-26", 0.52], ["2017-08-28", 0.542], ["2017-08-31", 0.556], ["2017-09-03", 0.565], ["2017-09-05", 0.569], ["2017-09-07", 0.576], ["2017-09-13", 0.571], ["2017-09-13", 0.571], ["2017-09-22", 0.574], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/516/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Ice cream melts faster than it used to.
In 2016, the average global temperature, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis, was the warmest on record, besting the previous mark which was set in 2015. Earth has something of a streak going -- the last three years have all been global... | true | 2018-08-01 | Will 2018 be the warmest year on record? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-16 | 2017-08-15 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-21", 0.455], ["2018-09-23", 0.392], ["2018-09-25", 0.498], ["2018-09-28", 0.555], ["2018-10-01", 0.575], ["2018-10-02", 0.574], ["2018-10-06", 0.576], ["2018-10-09", 0.575], ["2018-10-10", 0.58], ["2018-10-13", 0.577], ["2018-10-15", 0.577], ["2018-10-17", 0.578], ["2018-10-19", 0.578], ["2018-10-21", 0.579]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1455/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Ice cream melts faster than it used to.
In 2016, the average global temperature, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis, was the warmest on record, besting the previous mark which was set in 2015. Earth has something of a streak going -- the last three full calendar years have c... | true | 2019-08-01 | Will 2019 be the warmest year on record? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-11-12 | 2017-08-17 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-20", 0.15], ["2017-08-20", 0.15], ["2017-08-20", 0.133], ["2017-08-20", 0.133], ["2017-08-20", 0.112], ["2017-08-20", 0.152], ["2017-08-20", 0.128], ["2017-08-20", 0.111], ["2017-08-20", 0.111], ["2017-08-20", 0.12], ["2017-08-21", 0.12], ["2017-08-22", 0.118], ["2017-08-22", 0.153], ["2017-08-22", 0.153], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/517/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The ongoing investigation into the potential role of Russia in the 2016 US Presidential Election has continued to heat up, with appointment by deputy Attorney General Rosenstein of former FBI director Robert Mueller.
Michael Flynn was Trump's national security advisor for about three weeks starting Jan 20, 2017. Per Wi... | true | 2017-09-30 | Will Michael Flynn be charged with a crime by Veteran's day? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-07-01 | 2017-08-18 | ["https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=russia"] | binary | [["2017-08-20", 0.4], ["2017-08-20", 0.35], ["2017-08-20", 0.3], ["2017-08-20", 0.288], ["2017-08-20", 0.288], ["2017-08-20", 0.243], ["2017-08-20", 0.243], ["2017-08-20", 0.259], ["2017-08-21", 0.301], ["2017-08-21", 0.301], ["2017-08-21", 0.301], ["2017-08-22", 0.311], ["2017-08-22", 0.335], ["2017-08-22", 0.357], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/518/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Google trends, according to Wikipedia, "is a public web facility of Google Inc., based on Google Search, that shows how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume." Numbers are recorded since 2004. For the search term "russia" the month with the highest search volume in "russia" was F... | true | 2017-12-30 | Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-06-13 | 2017-08-19 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-26", 0.3], ["2017-08-26", 0.3], ["2017-08-26", 0.267], ["2017-08-27", 0.267], ["2017-08-27", 0.198], ["2017-08-28", 0.19], ["2017-08-28", 0.191], ["2017-08-28", 0.191], ["2017-08-28", 0.191], ["2017-08-28", 0.186], ["2017-08-29", 0.162], ["2017-08-29", 0.166], ["2017-08-29", 0.165], ["2017-08-31", 0.19], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/519/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Carrington Event, the strongest solar storm on record, was no joke.
Shortly before Noon on September 1, 1859, amateur solar observers in England noticed an intense burst of light from a large sunspot group. Less than 20 hours later, a cloud of hot plasma ejected by the flare slammed into Earth's magnetosphere. Auro... | true | 2018-01-20 | Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-08-22 | 2017-08-20 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-20", 0.86], ["2017-08-20", 0.805], ["2017-08-20", 0.805], ["2017-08-20", 0.79], ["2017-08-20", 0.782], ["2017-08-20", 0.817], ["2017-08-20", 0.786], ["2017-08-20", 0.786], ["2017-08-21", 0.808], ["2017-08-21", 0.817], ["2017-08-21", 0.817], ["2017-08-21", 0.817], ["2017-08-21", 0.82], ["2017-08-21", 0.828], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/521/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | A popular (but frustratingly long-resolution) question on Metaculus asks whether the total solar eclipse of June 25, 2522 will occur. Current odds stand at 95%...
Of more immediate concern is not whether the eclipse of August 21, 2017 (which will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to S... | true | 2017-08-21 | Clear skies during totality at the Grand Tetons? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-11-14 | 2017-08-20 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-21", 0.69], ["2017-08-22", 0.69], ["2017-08-22", 0.73], ["2017-08-22", 0.71], ["2017-08-22", 0.71], ["2017-08-22", 0.688], ["2017-08-22", 0.707], ["2017-08-22", 0.703], ["2017-08-22", 0.703], ["2017-08-22", 0.689], ["2017-08-23", 0.686], ["2017-08-23", 0.695], ["2017-08-23", 0.695], ["2017-08-23", 0.685], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/522/ | Kinetic lethal autonomous offensive weapons systems (KLAOWS) are a potential new stage in global armaments and warfare, as well as a new potential weapon of mass destruction.
Many current weapons systems, such as military drones, are moving toward autonomy, and autonomous "swarms" of aircraft have been tested. Meanwhil... | Security & Defense | Will a meeting of the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) already established by the UN begin formal meetings at some point in November 2017?
Resolution is positive if formal discussions at the UN commence at some point prior to the end of November. | true | 2017-10-15 | Will the UN host a meeting in November to continue discussions regarding lethal autonomous weapons? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-09-01 | 2017-08-24 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-25", 0.42], ["2017-08-25", 0.374], ["2017-08-25", 0.33], ["2017-08-25", 0.322], ["2017-08-25", 0.322], ["2017-08-25", 0.352], ["2017-08-26", 0.298], ["2017-08-26", 0.286], ["2017-08-26", 0.283], ["2017-08-27", 0.262], ["2017-08-27", 0.262], ["2017-08-27", 0.258], ["2017-08-27", 0.25], ["2017-08-27", 0.255], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/524/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | As detailed in this collection, Elon musk has a lot going on. In addition to being CEO of Tesla, he:
Is CEO of SpaceX;
Heads the "Boring company" digging tunnels for traffic and/or Hyperloop;
Provides some level of indirect support to Hyperloop;
Co-founded and oversees "Neuralink," an effort toward direct brain interfa... | true | 2017-12-15 | Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-10-17 | 2017-08-25 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-26", 0.89], ["2017-08-26", 0.89], ["2017-08-26", 0.883], ["2017-08-26", 0.883], ["2017-08-26", 0.888], ["2017-08-26", 0.873], ["2017-08-26", 0.858], ["2017-08-26", 0.838], ["2017-08-26", 0.838], ["2017-08-27", 0.841], ["2017-08-27", 0.837], ["2017-08-27", 0.837], ["2017-08-27", 0.838], ["2017-08-27", 0.851],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/525/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Twitter is not necessarily the first-choice medium for publishing scientific results, but sometimes rumors turn out to be true. On August 18th, J. Craig Wheeler of UT Austin tweeted: "New LIGO. Source with optical counterpart. Blow your sox off." Peter Yoachim at the University of Washington followed with tweets sugges... | true | 2017-10-01 | LIGO announcement of a neutron star merger in NGC 4993? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-10-06 | 2017-08-27 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-28", 0.25], ["2017-08-28", 0.1], ["2017-08-28", 0.1], ["2017-08-28", 0.15], ["2017-08-28", 0.15], ["2017-08-28", 0.237], ["2017-08-28", 0.425], ["2017-08-28", 0.425], ["2017-08-28", 0.405], ["2017-08-28", 0.383], ["2017-08-28", 0.267], ["2017-08-28", 0.259], ["2017-08-28", 0.258], ["2017-08-28", 0.258], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/527/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Pokemon Go was the first highly-successful augmented reality (AR) game, being downloaded more than 500 millions times. But it will surely not be the last.
In the near future is a "Last Jedi" AR game launching Sept. 1 2017. Unlike Pokemon Go, this game is largely marketing for the upcoming film, and the app has to be ta... | true | 2017-09-12 | Will the upcoming "Last Jedi" augmented reality game be a success? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-07-04 | 2017-08-27 | [] | binary | [["2017-08-29", 0.33], ["2017-08-29", 0.266], ["2017-08-29", 0.215], ["2017-08-31", 0.234], ["2017-09-01", 0.218], ["2017-09-02", 0.216], ["2017-09-03", 0.205], ["2017-09-03", 0.194], ["2017-09-04", 0.194], ["2017-09-04", 0.186], ["2017-09-05", 0.196], ["2017-09-06", 0.196], ["2017-09-06", 0.201], ["2017-09-14", 0.207]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/528/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Cold fusion of the late 1980's Fleischmann-Pons variety has long since fallen into disrepute, but it is interesting to recall that the coinage of the term actually dates to a 1956 New York Times article describing the phenomenon of muon-catalyzed fusion.
In a nutshell, a muon replaces one of the electrons in a hydrogen... | true | 2019-01-01 | A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-11-12 | 2017-08-29 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-15", 0.95], ["2017-09-15", 0.96], ["2017-09-15", 0.965], ["2017-09-15", 0.958], ["2017-09-15", 0.958], ["2017-09-15", 0.948], ["2017-09-15", 0.949], ["2017-09-15", 0.954], ["2017-09-15", 0.954], ["2017-09-15", 0.954], ["2017-09-16", 0.958], ["2017-09-16", 0.961], ["2017-09-16", 0.969], ["2017-09-16", 0.969],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/529/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | As of question launch, the top two cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are Bitcoin and Ethereum (by a significant margin) according to coinmarketcap.com.
This question resolves negative if on Dec. 1 the one-month plot of coin market capitalization plot here covering the month of November shows any currency other ... | true | 2017-11-01 | Will Bitcoin and Ethereum be the two highest market-cap cryptocurrencies for all of November 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-12-01 | 2017-08-30 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-15", 0.85], ["2017-09-15", 0.85], ["2017-09-15", 0.74], ["2017-09-15", 0.697], ["2017-09-15", 0.664], ["2017-09-15", 0.703], ["2017-09-15", 0.715], ["2017-09-15", 0.684], ["2017-09-15", 0.67], ["2017-09-15", 0.686], ["2017-09-15", 0.707], ["2017-09-16", 0.702], ["2017-09-16", 0.702], ["2017-09-16", 0.717], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/533/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The SEC has recently stepped in to the cryptocurrency and particularly Initial Coin offering (ICO) space with several public statements and two "alerts" issued on July 25 and August 28 regarding these offerings.
Will one or more additional SEC alerts be issued during November 2017?
Resolution is positive if the above-l... | true | 2017-10-25 | Another ICO-related SEC alert published in November 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-12-01 | 2017-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-15", 0.35], ["2017-09-15", 0.253], ["2017-09-15", 0.245], ["2017-09-15", 0.288], ["2017-09-15", 0.25], ["2017-09-15", 0.25], ["2017-09-15", 0.214], ["2017-09-15", 0.214], ["2017-09-16", 0.234], ["2017-09-16", 0.234], ["2017-09-16", 0.226], ["2017-09-16", 0.226], ["2017-09-16", 0.249], ["2017-09-16", 0.233], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/534/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | As of question launch, ETH is at less than 50% of Bitcoin's market cap, after coming as close as 80% in mid-June.
Will ETH be above 75% of BTC's market value at some point between Nov. 1 and Nov. 30, inclusive?
Resolution is positive if the chart at coinmarketcap shows the ratio of ETH/BTC market share to bet greater t... | true | 2017-10-20 | Will Ethereum hit 75% of Bitcoin's market cap during November 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-11-20 | 2017-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-15", 0.9], ["2017-09-15", 0.843], ["2017-09-15", 0.757], ["2017-09-15", 0.807], ["2017-09-15", 0.807], ["2017-09-15", 0.778], ["2017-09-15", 0.748], ["2017-09-15", 0.77], ["2017-09-15", 0.736], ["2017-09-15", 0.699], ["2017-09-15", 0.699], ["2017-09-15", 0.644], ["2017-09-15", 0.642], ["2017-09-15", 0.642], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/536/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The general crytocurrency market has been on a roll for quite a while, as exhibited for example by Smith & Crown's capitalization-weighted index. But of late (in early September) there have been some signs of a selloff.
Will the overall upward movement continue for the next several months or are we due for a downturn?
... | true | 2017-10-01 | A downturn in the cryptocurrency market as a whole? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-12-05 | 2017-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-15", 0.11], ["2017-09-15", 0.11], ["2017-09-15", 0.227], ["2017-09-15", 0.214], ["2017-09-15", 0.166], ["2017-09-16", 0.228], ["2017-09-16", 0.246], ["2017-09-16", 0.246], ["2017-09-16", 0.219], ["2017-09-16", 0.237], ["2017-09-16", 0.229], ["2017-09-16", 0.179], ["2017-09-16", 0.204], ["2017-09-17", 0.206],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/537/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In the relatively short history of cryptocurrencies there have been two major "splits": Ethereum into Ethereum and Ethereum Classic, and Bitcoin into Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.
With there be another major split in November 2017?
Resolution is positive if between Nov. 1 and Nov. 30 inclusive, a split of any of the follow... | true | 2017-10-15 | Another significant cryptocurrency split during November 2017? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-11-16 | 2017-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-15", 0.99], ["2017-09-15", 0.712], ["2017-09-16", 0.733], ["2017-09-16", 0.742], ["2017-09-16", 0.672], ["2017-09-17", 0.672], ["2017-09-17", 0.666], ["2017-09-17", 0.643], ["2017-09-18", 0.631], ["2017-09-18", 0.628], ["2017-09-19", 0.6], ["2017-09-19", 0.596], ["2017-09-19", 0.596], ["2017-09-20", 0.57], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/538/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The split of Bitcoin into Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash was occasioned by two irreconcilable factions in disagreement over how Bitcoin should scale in the future.
After an initial rally, as of question launch Bitcoin cash has been on a steady downslide while Bitcoin itself has been gaining.
Will Bitcoin cash continue to fad... | true | 2017-11-01 | Will Bitcoin Cash fade into oblivion? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-10-16 | 2017-09-01 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-15", 0.19], ["2017-09-15", 0.19], ["2017-09-15", 0.137], ["2017-09-15", 0.137], ["2017-09-15", 0.242], ["2017-09-15", 0.242], ["2017-09-15", 0.282], ["2017-09-15", 0.302], ["2017-09-15", 0.322], ["2017-09-15", 0.322], ["2017-09-15", 0.342], ["2017-09-15", 0.332], ["2017-09-15", 0.222], ["2017-09-15", 0.212],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/541/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Regulation of virtual currencies and "initial coin offerings" by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a matter of considerable importance and concern.
In late July 2017, the S.E.C. released an investigative report that established that DAO tokens, a digital asset, are securities, and additionally commun... | true | 2017-10-01 | More stories in the NY times about SEC regulation of initial coin offerings? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-11-21 | 2017-09-01 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-15", 0.15], ["2017-09-15", 0.223], ["2017-09-15", 0.223], ["2017-09-15", 0.223], ["2017-09-15", 0.156], ["2017-09-15", 0.132], ["2017-09-15", 0.114], ["2017-09-15", 0.112], ["2017-09-15", 0.121], ["2017-09-16", 0.129], ["2017-09-16", 0.139], ["2017-09-16", 0.131], ["2017-09-17", 0.137], ["2017-09-17", 0.137]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/542/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Despite its being carefully designed for security, piles of hundred of millions of dollars lying around "in the bits" are bound to attract some clever schemes, and there have been a few quite notable thefts/swindles/heists of cryptocurrencies.
Biggest and most famous, probably, was Mt. Gox, in which per Wikipedia,
appr... | true | 2017-11-01 | A major "theft" of cryptocurrency in November 2017? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-11-02 | 2017-09-02 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-15", 0.02], ["2017-09-15", 0.11], ["2017-09-15", 0.09], ["2017-09-15", 0.092], ["2017-09-15", 0.105], ["2017-09-15", 0.118], ["2017-09-15", 0.118], ["2017-09-15", 0.105], ["2017-09-15", 0.105], ["2017-09-15", 0.134], ["2017-09-15", 0.228], ["2017-09-16", 0.198], ["2017-09-16", 0.177], ["2017-09-16", 0.169], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/544/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The NASDAQ stock market, which opened for trading in 1971, was the world's first electronic stock market. Its well known benchmark, the NASDAQ Composite Index, is a market capitalization-weighted measure of the value of all the domestic and internationally based common stocks listed on the NASDAQ market. The index incl... | true | 2017-09-30 | Passing the torch: Will a Bitcoin's dollar value exceed the Nasdaq Index value? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-01-01 | 2017-09-06 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-09", 0.05], ["2017-09-09", 0.078], ["2017-09-10", 0.061], ["2017-09-10", 0.061], ["2017-09-11", 0.1], ["2017-09-12", 0.1], ["2017-09-12", 0.106], ["2017-09-13", 0.103], ["2017-09-14", 0.121], ["2017-09-15", 0.116], ["2017-09-15", 0.14], ["2017-09-18", 0.14], ["2017-09-19", 0.146], ["2017-09-20", 0.142], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/549/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Ted Koppel, of ABC News and Nightline fame, has been sounding the alarm about the vulnerability of the electrical grids in the U.S. to intentional sabotage.
In his book Lights Out, Koppel argues that the U.S. grid(s) are both so interconnected and so fragile that a well-crafted attack could knock out power for a multi-... | true | 2018-02-15 | Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-10-17 | 2017-09-14 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-14", 0.12], ["2017-09-14", 0.12], ["2017-09-14", 0.445], ["2017-09-14", 0.445], ["2017-09-14", 0.363], ["2017-09-14", 0.293], ["2017-09-14", 0.23], ["2017-09-14", 0.314], ["2017-09-15", 0.294], ["2017-09-15", 0.294], ["2017-09-15", 0.291], ["2017-09-15", 0.298], ["2017-09-15", 0.294], ["2017-09-15", 0.294], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/553/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the "fear gauge". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.
To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corre... | true | 2017-10-01 | Short-term increase in Market Volatility? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-12-05 | 2017-09-14 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-24", 0.37], ["2017-09-24", 0.37], ["2017-09-24", 0.285], ["2017-09-24", 0.268], ["2017-09-24", 0.268], ["2017-09-24", 0.274], ["2017-09-24", 0.274], ["2017-09-24", 0.327], ["2017-09-24", 0.299], ["2017-09-24", 0.299], ["2017-09-24", 0.267], ["2017-09-24", 0.245], ["2017-09-24", 0.236], ["2017-09-24", 0.242],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/554/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | All of the largest, and probably all, cryptocurrency exchange in China have as of question writing announced that they will shut down, due to China's ban on cryptocurrency trading and ICOs.
Other countries seem be less willing (and may be less able) to ban cryptocurrency exchanges, but it could happen. We ask:
Will a m... | true | 2017-10-15 | Will a country other than China shut down a cryptocurrency exchange by Dec. 1? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2017-09-22 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes#Landfalls", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes#Landfalls", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/weather/hurricane-ian-florida-path-wednesday/index.html"] | binary | [["2017-09-25", 0.6], ["2017-10-01", 0.514], ["2017-10-04", 0.514], ["2017-10-09", 0.522], ["2017-10-13", 0.537], ["2017-10-18", 0.537], ["2017-11-14", 0.526], ["2017-11-24", 0.526], ["2017-12-13", 0.532], ["2018-01-04", 0.532], ["2018-01-10", 0.545], ["2018-01-18", 0.556], ["2018-01-30", 0.541], ["2018-02-06", 0.541],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/557/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only 18 Category 4 and five Category 5 storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and F... | true | 2019-11-30 | Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-21 | 2017-09-22 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-25", 0.495], ["2017-09-25", 0.495], ["2017-09-26", 0.473], ["2017-09-26", 0.468], ["2017-09-26", 0.47], ["2017-09-26", 0.455], ["2017-09-26", 0.504], ["2017-09-27", 0.478], ["2017-09-29", 0.478], ["2017-10-01", 0.479], ["2017-10-04", 0.485], ["2017-10-04", 0.485], ["2017-10-08", 0.505], ["2017-10-09", 0.505]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/558/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | The vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus) is the most endangered cetacean species, with recent estimates of population around 30 individuals. The species is located exclusively in the Gulf of California, limiting its potential habitats, and has been decimated by fishermen who employ highly effective gillnets to catch the t... | true | 2018-06-30 | Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-12-04 | 2017-09-22 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-23", 0.32], ["2017-09-23", 0.26], ["2017-09-23", 0.483], ["2017-09-23", 0.483], ["2017-09-23", 0.55], ["2017-09-23", 0.55], ["2017-09-23", 0.588], ["2017-09-23", 0.636], ["2017-09-23", 0.64], ["2017-09-23", 0.64], ["2017-09-23", 0.746], ["2017-09-23", 0.746], ["2017-09-23", 0.754], ["2017-09-24", 0.684], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/559/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | There has long been tension between ride-share company Uber and many of the municipalities in which it operates. This had risen to a head recently as the city of London has declined to renew Uber's license.
Very quickly, a petition has been launched to restore the license (and service). How will it all shake out. To be... | true | 2017-10-15 | Will Uber be operating in London on Dec. 1? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-12-01 | 2017-09-23 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-24", 0.27], ["2017-09-24", 0.27], ["2017-09-24", 0.29], ["2017-09-24", 0.33], ["2017-09-24", 0.33], ["2017-09-24", 0.448], ["2017-09-24", 0.622], ["2017-09-24", 0.627], ["2017-09-24", 0.661], ["2017-09-24", 0.688], ["2017-09-24", 0.699], ["2017-09-24", 0.699], ["2017-09-24", 0.722], ["2017-09-24", 0.762], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/560/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | There are a number of technologies that may fundamentally rework society over the next few decades that are, nonetheless, having almost little to no attention paid to them by US policymakers.
One of them may be cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies. As of question launch, a search of Trump's speech transcripts a... | true | 2017-10-15 | Will Trump go two more months without uttering the words "Bitcoin" or "Cryptocurrency"? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-04-10 | 2017-09-23 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-26", 0.84], ["2017-09-26", 0.84], ["2017-09-26", 0.87], ["2017-09-26", 0.86], ["2017-09-26", 0.814], ["2017-09-26", 0.812], ["2017-09-26", 0.817], ["2017-09-27", 0.817], ["2017-09-27", 0.802], ["2017-09-27", 0.786], ["2017-09-27", 0.808], ["2017-09-27", 0.804], ["2017-09-27", 0.804], ["2017-09-27", 0.737], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/561/ | There are a number of technologies that may fundamentally rework society over the next few decades that are, nonetheless, having almost little to no attention paid to them by US policymakers.
One of them is almost certainly Artificial Intelligence. As of question launch, a search of Trump's speech transcripts at FactCh... | Science & Tech | Will this continue until Dec. 31 2017?
Resolution is positive if "Artificial Intelligence" does not show up in FactCheck.org's transcripts on Dec. 31, 2017. | true | 2017-11-01 | Will Trump finish the year without mentioning the phrase "Artificial Intelligence"? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2017-09-25 | ["https://www.ft.com/content/60ef876f-5b83-43d5-bf32-ea102e542545"] | binary | [["2017-09-28", 0.085], ["2017-10-01", 0.158], ["2017-10-04", 0.183], ["2017-10-06", 0.171], ["2017-10-09", 0.183], ["2017-10-12", 0.183], ["2017-10-15", 0.19], ["2017-10-18", 0.185], ["2017-10-22", 0.173], ["2017-10-24", 0.177], ["2017-10-28", 0.175], ["2017-11-01", 0.171], ["2017-11-04", 0.186], ["2017-11-11", 0.185]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/562/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | In 1936, the last known thylacine (also called a Tasmanian tiger) died in a zoo in Hobart, Tasmania. After that the species was presumed extinct, but sightings of thylacines persisted in the following decades, suggesting that some thylacines may have survived.
Several sightings have allegedly captured footage of the an... | true | 2019-01-01 | A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2017-09-25 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-27", 0.24], ["2017-09-27", 0.292], ["2017-09-28", 0.204], ["2017-09-28", 0.218], ["2017-09-28", 0.242], ["2017-09-28", 0.237], ["2017-09-28", 0.237], ["2017-09-29", 0.268], ["2017-09-29", 0.271], ["2017-09-29", 0.269], ["2017-09-29", 0.271], ["2017-09-29", 0.271], ["2017-09-29", 0.288], ["2017-09-30", 0.287]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/563/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Ever-heightening rhetoric on both the North Korean and US side is creating a dangerous situation in North Korea, with both sides flat-out threatening to obliterate the other.
While most analysts believe that an unprovoked nuclear strike is unlikely, there are concerns about many pathways to an steady escalation that co... | true | 2017-11-15 | Will the US take military action in N. Korea? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-11-24 | 2017-09-25 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-28", 0.2], ["2017-09-28", 0.225], ["2017-09-28", 0.26], ["2017-09-28", 0.258], ["2017-09-28", 0.352], ["2017-09-28", 0.385], ["2017-09-28", 0.363], ["2017-09-28", 0.4], ["2017-09-28", 0.421], ["2017-09-29", 0.428], ["2017-09-29", 0.428], ["2017-09-29", 0.418], ["2017-09-29", 0.408], ["2017-09-29", 0.417], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/564/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Since mining cryptocurrency can essentially convert CPU/GPU time into money, and browsers will tend to run whatever javascript programs are handed to them, there is the possibility of sites using visitors' computers to mine cryptocurrency.
In two recent incidents, the Pirate Bay was revealed to be mining bitcoin in lie... | true | 2017-10-15 | Will another significant website be outed for on-the-sly in-browser cryptocoin mining By Nov. 15? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-10-03 | 2017-09-28 | [] | binary | [["2017-09-28", 0.3], ["2017-09-28", 0.25], ["2017-09-28", 0.282], ["2017-09-28", 0.326], ["2017-09-28", 0.326], ["2017-09-28", 0.317], ["2017-09-28", 0.329], ["2017-09-28", 0.329], ["2017-09-28", 0.312], ["2017-09-28", 0.311], ["2017-09-29", 0.311], ["2017-09-29", 0.342], ["2017-09-29", 0.342], ["2017-09-29", 0.367], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/565/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | It's been a big couple of years for gravitational waves, with their first direct discovery announced by LIGO in February 2016, and a host of nice followup results. Most (and very) recently, a detection of merging black holes using LIGO plus Virgo. There's also lots of speculation (and predictions here) that soon a neut... | true | 2017-10-03 | 2017 Physics Nobel Prize in Physics for Gravitational Waves? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-11-13 | 2017-09-30 | [] | binary | [["2017-10-15", 0.1], ["2017-10-15", 0.1], ["2017-10-15", 0.07], ["2017-10-15", 0.157], ["2017-10-15", 0.258], ["2017-10-15", 0.258], ["2017-10-15", 0.258], ["2017-10-15", 0.277], ["2017-10-16", 0.266], ["2017-10-16", 0.266], ["2017-10-16", 0.282], ["2017-10-16", 0.282], ["2017-10-16", 0.267], ["2017-10-16", 0.257], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/567/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Amazon recently announced plans to build "HQ2", a second headquarters in North America. As detailed in a number of news articles, cities across the continent are scrambling to promote themselves as the ideal location; the selected region will absorb a $5 billion investment and see the creation of up to 50,000 new jobs ... | true | 2017-11-01 | Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-02 | 2017-10-02 | [] | binary | [["2017-10-05", 0.37], ["2017-10-09", 0.292], ["2017-10-11", 0.299], ["2017-10-15", 0.277], ["2017-10-18", 0.284], ["2017-10-23", 0.284], ["2017-10-26", 0.277], ["2017-10-29", 0.311], ["2017-10-31", 0.299], ["2017-11-04", 0.292], ["2017-11-06", 0.283], ["2017-11-09", 0.274], ["2017-11-13", 0.274], ["2017-11-15", 0.274]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/568/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.
News reports suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.
With talk of a unilat... | true | 2018-09-30 | By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-03-21 | 2017-10-04 | [] | binary | [["2017-10-17", 0.2], ["2017-10-23", 0.246], ["2017-10-29", 0.246], ["2017-11-03", 0.262], ["2017-11-09", 0.261], ["2017-11-19", 0.258], ["2017-12-07", 0.251], ["2017-12-12", 0.245], ["2018-01-09", 0.245], ["2018-01-10", 0.265], ["2018-01-18", 0.265], ["2018-03-03", 0.258], ["2018-03-08", 0.258], ["2018-03-12", 0.243],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/569/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | When a massive solar storm hit the earth in 1859, it produced auroras bright enough to wake Colorado miners and threw sparks off of telegraph wires. Were such a storm to strike today, however, the consequences to our technology-dependent society would be catastrophic. Such storms are the subject of several other questi... | true | 2019-12-31 | Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2017-10-09 | ["https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/earthquakes", "https://twitter.com/szendehnam/status/1604079759373111296"] | binary | [["2017-11-21", 0.435], ["2017-12-02", 0.501], ["2017-12-09", 0.497], ["2017-12-31", 0.498], ["2018-01-10", 0.516], ["2018-02-05", 0.516], ["2018-02-07", 0.51], ["2018-02-25", 0.51], ["2018-03-10", 0.509], ["2018-03-17", 0.514], ["2018-03-30", 0.514], ["2018-04-06", 0.523], ["2018-04-14", 0.523], ["2018-04-23", 0.517],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/570/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | The major earthquakes in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of highest seismic hazard, with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the New ... | true | 2021-04-15 | A major United States earthquake by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-10-05 | 2017-10-17 | [] | binary | [["2017-10-22", 0.09], ["2017-10-22", 0.09], ["2017-10-22", 0.277], ["2017-10-22", 0.268], ["2017-10-22", 0.268], ["2017-10-22", 0.228], ["2017-10-22", 0.228], ["2017-10-22", 0.215], ["2017-10-22", 0.215], ["2017-10-22", 0.224], ["2017-10-22", 0.227], ["2017-10-22", 0.225], ["2017-10-22", 0.225], ["2017-10-22", 0.228],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/572/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Since September 2016, Chinese space officials have known that their space station, Tiangong 1, was going to crash into earth, its orbit not-so-slowly decaying. The station, which has been in orbit since 2011, could burn up in the Earth's atmosphere any time between now and April 2018. The time and location of the stati... | true | 2018-01-01 | Will (some of) China's space station land on land? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-12-01 | 2017-10-26 | [] | binary | [["2017-10-26", 0.25], ["2017-10-26", 0.185], ["2017-10-26", 0.14], ["2017-10-26", 0.14], ["2017-10-27", 0.108], ["2017-10-27", 0.136], ["2017-10-27", 0.136], ["2017-10-27", 0.122], ["2017-10-27", 0.122], ["2017-10-27", 0.106], ["2017-10-27", 0.096], ["2017-10-27", 0.102], ["2017-10-27", 0.102], ["2017-10-27", 0.101], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/576/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Rumors are swirling that Amazon might start to accept Bitcoin payments. This would be a huge shift in the cryptocurrency world.
We ask:
By Dec. 1, will it either be possible to make purchases on Amazon, of at least some goods or services, using Bitcoin, OR will there be a firm date announced by Amazon prior to Jan. 1, ... | true | 2017-11-15 | Amazon to accept, or set a date to accept, Bitcoin payment by Dec. 1? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-04-17 | 2017-11-12 | [] | binary | [["2017-11-14", 0.13], ["2017-11-14", 0.228], ["2017-11-14", 0.253], ["2017-11-15", 0.252], ["2017-11-15", 0.252], ["2017-11-15", 0.232], ["2017-11-15", 0.235], ["2017-11-15", 0.235], ["2017-11-16", 0.254], ["2017-11-16", 0.244], ["2017-11-16", 0.244], ["2017-11-16", 0.26], ["2017-11-17", 0.279], ["2017-11-18", 0.279],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/580/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The investigation by CIA lead Robert Mueller heated up dramatically with the charging of Paul Manafort. It's hard – but interesting – to try to predict where the investigation will go next. There has been much discussion of Michael Flynn, with one report that Mueller has in-hand enough evidence to charge him, but has n... | true | 2018-01-15 | Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-01 | 2017-11-12 | [] | binary | [["2017-11-17", 0.4], ["2017-11-17", 0.4], ["2017-11-17", 0.523], ["2017-11-17", 0.597], ["2017-11-17", 0.59], ["2017-11-17", 0.535], ["2017-11-17", 0.533], ["2017-11-17", 0.533], ["2017-11-17", 0.535], ["2017-11-17", 0.539], ["2017-11-18", 0.539], ["2017-11-18", 0.554], ["2017-11-18", 0.555], ["2017-11-18", 0.555], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/581/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.
We can use Google trends to analyze the interest in a topic over time. We are go... | true | 2017-12-31 | Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2017-11-16 | [] | binary | [["2017-11-21", 0.82], ["2017-11-21", 0.705], ["2017-11-21", 0.729], ["2017-11-22", 0.699], ["2017-11-22", 0.687], ["2017-11-22", 0.687], ["2017-11-22", 0.659], ["2017-11-22", 0.652], ["2017-11-23", 0.634], ["2017-11-23", 0.625], ["2017-11-24", 0.602], ["2017-11-25", 0.606], ["2017-11-26", 0.606], ["2017-11-26", 0.608]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/584/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Copyright law gives the authors of creative works the exclusive right, for a period of time, to create and distribute copies of those works. After that time expires, the ownership of the works reverts to the "public domain," which means that anyone can freely copy, use, and expand upon the original work.
In the United ... | true | 2018-05-16 | Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-01-01 | 2017-11-20 | [] | binary | [["2017-11-23", 0.47], ["2017-11-23", 0.47], ["2017-11-23", 0.342], ["2017-11-23", 0.304], ["2017-11-23", 0.27], ["2017-11-24", 0.27], ["2017-11-24", 0.31], ["2017-11-24", 0.328], ["2017-11-24", 0.345], ["2017-11-24", 0.336], ["2017-11-24", 0.336], ["2017-11-25", 0.353], ["2017-11-25", 0.353], ["2017-11-26", 0.387], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/588/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | In a study published in Geophysical Research Letters, Bilham and Bendick predict that, because of Earth’s slowing rotation, Earth will see a significant increase in large earthquakes in 2018.
“The inference is clear,” Bilham told the Guardian. “Next year we should see a significant increase in numbers of severe earthqu... | true | 2018-02-01 | A surge in large earthquakes in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2017-11-20 | [] | binary | [["2017-11-24", 0.05], ["2017-11-25", 0.107], ["2017-11-25", 0.131], ["2017-11-26", 0.149], ["2017-11-27", 0.147], ["2017-11-28", 0.145], ["2017-11-29", 0.143], ["2017-11-29", 0.141], ["2017-11-30", 0.143], ["2017-12-01", 0.143], ["2017-12-02", 0.152], ["2017-12-02", 0.152], ["2017-12-03", 0.152], ["2017-12-04", 0.154]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/589/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Some industry analysts including Former GM boss Bob Lutz predict that the electric vehicle and solar energy producer will go out of business before 2019.
The company is having difficulty with mass-producing the Model 3 and has been spending about 1 billion a quarter on R and D. There is increasing competition from othe... | true | 2018-04-01 | Will Tesla go out of business before 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-09 | 2017-11-21 | ["https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2022/", "https://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/DI-final-version-report.pdf?mkt_tok=NzUzLVJJUS00MzgAAAGJ9L0FPtq8HK8Ht7N74Y32MrHV2l2fYWmP-Ff8lsYKIDfh8WyCqk0QclKBkMBz0phBFoRvmAGOowxp9lx_Lz_Xb2OuTXaYVoyENlO7-Krsvi-Hsg"] | binary | [["2017-11-24", 0.2], ["2017-11-24", 0.3], ["2017-11-24", 0.3], ["2017-11-24", 0.37], ["2017-11-24", 0.382], ["2017-11-24", 0.382], ["2017-11-24", 0.346], ["2017-11-25", 0.379], ["2017-11-25", 0.406], ["2017-11-25", 0.405], ["2017-11-25", 0.403], ["2017-11-25", 0.403], ["2017-11-25", 0.408], ["2017-11-26", 0.408], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/590/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and anothe... | true | 2018-03-02 | Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2017-11-23 | [] | binary | [["2017-11-23", 0.1], ["2017-11-24", 0.422], ["2017-11-24", 0.39], ["2017-11-25", 0.404], ["2017-11-25", 0.402], ["2017-11-26", 0.402], ["2017-11-26", 0.396], ["2017-11-27", 0.393], ["2017-11-27", 0.41], ["2017-11-28", 0.41], ["2017-11-28", 0.41], ["2017-11-29", 0.422], ["2017-11-29", 0.417], ["2017-11-30", 0.417], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/592/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The astronomical community, and increasingly, the broader public, have been abuzz over the recent passage of an interstellar asteroid through the solar system. The interloping object, now officially known as 'Oumuamua (Hawaiian for "messenger from the distant past") was discovered by the PanSTARRS monitoring system on ... | true | 2018-07-01 | Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-01 | 2017-11-28 | [] | binary | [["2017-12-01", 0.25], ["2017-12-01", 0.25], ["2017-12-01", 0.26], ["2017-12-01", 0.268], ["2017-12-01", 0.268], ["2017-12-01", 0.242], ["2017-12-01", 0.278], ["2017-12-01", 0.277], ["2017-12-01", 0.272], ["2017-12-01", 0.27], ["2017-12-02", 0.285], ["2017-12-02", 0.299], ["2017-12-02", 0.305], ["2017-12-02", 0.308], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/595/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | One of the 50 predictions made by Fortune magazine in November 2017 began as follows: "A snowballing sexual harassment scandal in Parliament and divisions over Brexit will coalesce into a force strong enough to bring down Theresa May’s government. The Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn will become U.K. Prime Minister and wil... | true | 2018-03-01 | Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-20 | 2017-11-28 | [] | binary | [["2017-12-05", 0.5], ["2017-12-05", 0.556], ["2017-12-06", 0.567], ["2017-12-06", 0.552], ["2017-12-06", 0.569], ["2017-12-07", 0.565], ["2017-12-07", 0.581], ["2017-12-07", 0.605], ["2017-12-07", 0.598], ["2017-12-09", 0.589], ["2017-12-09", 0.592], ["2017-12-10", 0.597], ["2017-12-11", 0.597], ["2017-12-11", 0.587],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/597/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | One of the 50 predictions made by Fortune magazine in November 2017 runs as follows: "The court’s key swing vote, Anthony Kennedy, has a flair for the dramatic. He will cast the deciding vote in a 5–4 ruling in Gill v. Whitford that will declare the serpentine redrawing of election districts for political purposes to b... | true | 2018-03-01 | Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-21 | 2017-12-03 | [] | binary | [["2017-12-06", 0.22], ["2017-12-06", 0.291], ["2017-12-07", 0.314], ["2017-12-07", 0.312], ["2017-12-07", 0.324], ["2017-12-07", 0.316], ["2017-12-08", 0.304], ["2017-12-08", 0.304], ["2017-12-08", 0.294], ["2017-12-09", 0.297], ["2017-12-09", 0.306], ["2017-12-09", 0.312], ["2017-12-11", 0.312], ["2017-12-11", 0.313]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/599/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Dominos continue to fall in Mueller's investigation of involvement of Russia in the 2016 presidential election.
As of question writing, Papadopoulos was charged, pled guilty, and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. Paul Manafort has been charged but pled innocent. Michael Flynn has pled guilty to a single charge of... | true | 2018-02-15 | Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2017-12-06 | [] | binary | [["2017-12-11", 0.35], ["2017-12-11", 0.235], ["2017-12-11", 0.235], ["2017-12-11", 0.217], ["2017-12-11", 0.217], ["2017-12-11", 0.24], ["2017-12-11", 0.22], ["2017-12-11", 0.203], ["2017-12-11", 0.19], ["2017-12-11", 0.191], ["2017-12-11", 0.192], ["2017-12-11", 0.185], ["2017-12-11", 0.185], ["2017-12-11", 0.187], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/601/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Tesla has promised revolutionary new technology to the auto industry, but it has also had trouble scaling up production and has consistently posted losses.
Despite this, Tesla has a market cap of over 50 billion dollars as of the writing of this question. It is unclear how this number will evolve in the future, though.... | true | 2017-12-31 | Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-02-04 | 2017-12-08 | [] | binary | [["2017-12-08", 0.47], ["2017-12-08", 0.56], ["2017-12-08", 0.573], ["2017-12-08", 0.573], ["2017-12-08", 0.508], ["2017-12-08", 0.547], ["2017-12-08", 0.522], ["2017-12-08", 0.479], ["2017-12-08", 0.479], ["2017-12-09", 0.469], ["2017-12-09", 0.471], ["2017-12-09", 0.471], ["2017-12-09", 0.473], ["2017-12-09", 0.473],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/602/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Dating back to 1896, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has become almost synonymous with the overall value of the stock market. The index includes major industrial stocks such as DuPont, GE, Goldman Sachs, and ExxonMobile.
Recently, the DJIA has been on a tear, and as of question writing stands at 24,211.
The ong... | true | 2017-12-20 | Passing the torch part 2: Will a Bitcoin's dollar value exceed the Dow Jones Industrial Index value? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-26 | 2017-12-31 | [] | binary | [["2018-01-04", 0.58], ["2018-01-05", 0.613], ["2018-01-06", 0.619], ["2018-01-07", 0.631], ["2018-01-07", 0.631], ["2018-01-08", 0.631], ["2018-01-09", 0.63], ["2018-01-10", 0.647], ["2018-01-11", 0.647], ["2018-01-14", 0.631], ["2018-01-14", 0.635], ["2018-01-18", 0.633], ["2018-01-18", 0.629], ["2018-01-24", 0.63], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/613/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Hubble Space Telescope was launched into low Earth orbit in 1990 and, after a servicing mission in 1993 in order to correct the telescope's optics, it began delivering pictures of the universe of unprecedented quality.
The question of what Hubble's replacement should be was soon posed and in 1996 the planning for H... | true | 2018-07-21 | Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-07-01 | 2018-01-20 | [] | binary | [["2018-01-23", 0.25], ["2018-01-26", 0.237], ["2018-01-29", 0.235], ["2018-02-01", 0.244], ["2018-02-05", 0.243], ["2018-02-08", 0.239], ["2018-02-11", 0.229], ["2018-02-20", 0.227], ["2018-03-02", 0.227], ["2018-03-05", 0.225], ["2018-03-06", 0.229], ["2018-03-10", 0.229], ["2018-03-12", 0.234], ["2018-03-17", 0.234]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/618/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Two years ago, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- kicked the news media into high gear by predicting the existence of Planet Nine, a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. Their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years, and a super-Earth mass more t... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-13 | 2018-01-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-01-24", 0.44], ["2018-01-24", 0.44], ["2018-01-24", 0.42], ["2018-01-24", 0.38], ["2018-01-25", 0.38], ["2018-01-25", 0.36], ["2018-01-25", 0.308], ["2018-01-25", 0.308], ["2018-01-25", 0.296], ["2018-01-25", 0.296], ["2018-01-25", 0.315], ["2018-01-25", 0.315], ["2018-01-25", 0.302], ["2018-01-25", 0.297], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/619/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Amazon recently announced plans to build "HQ2", a second headquarters in North America. As detailed in a number of news articles, cities across the continent scrambled to promote themselves as the ideal location; the selected region will absorb a $5 billion investment and see the creation of up to 50,000 new jobs over ... | true | 2018-03-01 | Will Amazon choose either Austin or Boston for its HQ2? | metaculus | 0 |
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