diff --git a/pages/fev_bench.py b/pages/fev_bench.py index 65e6258a0e694c38b82c8b26b2368e9409bc61bc..0c952b2d5b15176ca70ca811c64519ced3b5efbe 100644 --- a/pages/fev_bench.py +++ b/pages/fev_bench.py @@ -38,14 +38,14 @@ SORT_COL = "win_rate" AVAILABLE_METRICS = ["SQL", "MASE", "WQL", "WAPE"] # Group type options -GROUP_TYPES = ["Full benchmark", "fev-bench-mini", "By frequency", "By domain"] +GROUP_TYPES = ["Full (100 tasks)", "Mini (20 tasks)", "By frequency", "By domain"] FREQUENCY_OPTIONS = list(FREQUENCY_GROUPS.keys()) DOMAIN_OPTIONS = list(DOMAIN_GROUPS.keys()) # Mapping from UI selections to table directory names GROUP_DIR_MAPPING = { - "Full benchmark": "full", - "fev-bench-mini": "mini", + "Full (100 tasks)": "full", + "Mini (20 tasks)": "mini", "Sub-hourly": "frequency_sub_hourly", "Hourly": "frequency_hourly", "Daily": "frequency_daily", @@ -80,13 +80,8 @@ def get_pivot_table(metric_name: str) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame, pd.Da with st.sidebar: - selected_metric = st.selectbox("Evaluation Metric", options=AVAILABLE_METRICS, format_func=format_metric_name) - st.caption(get_metric_description(selected_metric)) - - st.divider() - # Task group selection - selected_group_type = st.selectbox("Task Group", options=GROUP_TYPES) + selected_group_type = st.selectbox("Subset", options=GROUP_TYPES) # Conditional sub-selection for frequency/domain selected_subgroup = None @@ -96,9 +91,9 @@ with st.sidebar: selected_subgroup = st.selectbox("Domain", options=DOMAIN_OPTIONS) # Determine the directory to load tables from - if selected_group_type in ["Full benchmark", "fev-bench-mini"]: + if selected_group_type in ["Full (100 tasks)", "Mini (20 tasks)"]: group_dir = GROUP_DIR_MAPPING[selected_group_type] - task_list = ALL_TASKS if selected_group_type == "Full benchmark" else MINI_TASKS + task_list = ALL_TASKS if selected_group_type == "Full (100 tasks)" else MINI_TASKS else: group_dir = GROUP_DIR_MAPPING[selected_subgroup] if selected_group_type == "By frequency": @@ -108,6 +103,11 @@ with st.sidebar: st.caption(f"{len(task_list)} tasks") + st.divider() + + selected_metric = st.selectbox("Evaluation Metric", options=AVAILABLE_METRICS, format_func=format_metric_name) + st.caption(get_metric_description(selected_metric)) + cols = st.columns(spec=[0.025, 0.95, 0.025]) with cols[1] as main_container: diff --git a/src/task_groups.py b/src/task_groups.py index 81410d12cc5283e9e0368057f02ee9846e563789..715fb9375e53bf77e742612e27e7dddd91ac8429 100644 --- a/src/task_groups.py +++ b/src/task_groups.py @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ """Task groupings for filtering the leaderboard by subsets.""" -# All tasks in the benchmark +# All tasks in the benchmark (100 tasks) ALL_TASKS = [ "ETT_15T", "ETT_1D", "ETT_1H", "ETT_1W", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", @@ -41,56 +41,88 @@ ALL_TASKS = [ "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism", ] -# Mini benchmark - representative subset +# Mini benchmark - representative subset (20 tasks) MINI_TASKS = [ - "ETT_1H", "ETT_1D", - "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", - "entsoe_1H", - "epf_de", - "ercot_1D", - "favorita_stores_1D", - "hospital", "jena_weather_1H", - "m5_1D", + "M_DENSE_1D", + "bizitobs_l2c_5T", + "rohlik_orders_1D", + "boomlet_1282", "rossmann_1D", - "solar_1D", - "walmart", - "australian_tourism", - "gvar", + "rossmann_1W", + "boomlet_1676", + "solar_with_weather_1H", + "boomlet_619", + "uci_air_quality_1H", + "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", + "us_consumption_1Y", + "epf_np", + "world_co2_emissions", + "ETT_15T", + "ETT_1H", + "proenfo_gfc14", + "hospital_admissions_1D", + "hospital_admissions_1W", ] # Frequency-based groupings FREQUENCY_GROUPS = { "Sub-hourly": [ - "ETT_15T", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", "SZ_TAXI_15T", "bizitobs_l2c_5T", - "entsoe_15T", "entsoe_30T", "jena_weather_10T", "kdd_cup_2022_10T", - "kdd_cup_2022_30T", "redset_15T", "redset_5T", "solar_with_weather_15T", + # T (1 minute) + "boomlet_1225", "boomlet_1282", "boomlet_285", "boomlet_619", "boomlet_772", "boomlet_963", + # 5T (5 minutes) + "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", "bizitobs_l2c_5T", "redset_5T", + "boomlet_1062", "boomlet_1209", "boomlet_1230", "boomlet_1487", + # 10T (10 minutes) + "jena_weather_10T", "kdd_cup_2022_10T", + # 15T (15 minutes) + "ETT_15T", "SZ_TAXI_15T", "entsoe_15T", "redset_15T", "solar_with_weather_15T", + # 30T (30 minutes) + "entsoe_30T", "kdd_cup_2022_30T", "boomlet_1631", "boomlet_1676", ], "Hourly": [ "ETT_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "M_DENSE_1H", "SZ_TAXI_1H", - "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "entsoe_1H", "ercot_1H", "jena_weather_1H", + "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "entsoe_1H", "ercot_1H", + "epf_be", "epf_de", "epf_fr", "epf_np", "epf_pjm", + "jena_weather_1H", + "proenfo_gfc12", "proenfo_gfc14", "proenfo_gfc17", "redset_1H", "solar_with_weather_1H", "uci_air_quality_1H", + "boomlet_1855", "boomlet_1975", "boomlet_2187", ], "Daily": [ - "ETT_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "M_DENSE_1D", "ercot_1D", - "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_transactions_1D", "hierarchical_sales_1D", - "hospital_admissions_1D", "jena_weather_1D", "kdd_cup_2022_1D", - "m5_1D", "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rossmann_1D", - "solar_1D", "uci_air_quality_1D", "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", - "uk_covid_nation_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1D/new", + "ETT_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "M_DENSE_1D", + "ercot_1D", "kdd_cup_2022_1D", "solar_1D", + "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_transactions_1D", + "hierarchical_sales_1D", "m5_1D", + "restaurant", + "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rossmann_1D", + "jena_weather_1D", "uci_air_quality_1D", + "hospital_admissions_1D", + "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1D/new", ], "Weekly": [ - "ETT_1W", "ercot_1W", "favorita_stores_1W", "favorita_transactions_1W", - "hierarchical_sales_1W", "hospital_admissions_1W", "m5_1W", - "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1W", "rossmann_1W", "solar_1W", - "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new", - "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative", + "ETT_1W", "ercot_1W", "solar_1W", + "favorita_stores_1W", "favorita_transactions_1W", + "hierarchical_sales_1W", "m5_1W", + "hermes", "walmart", + "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1W", "rossmann_1W", + "ecdc_ili", + "hospital_admissions_1W", + "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new", "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative", ], "Monthly+": [ - "ercot_1M", "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_transactions_1M", "m5_1M", - "us_consumption_1M", "us_consumption_1Q", "us_consumption_1Y", - "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro", "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro", - "australian_tourism", "ecdc_ili", "gvar", "hospital", "restaurant", + # Monthly + "ercot_1M", + "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_transactions_1M", "m5_1M", + "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro", + "hospital", + "us_consumption_1M", + # Quarterly + "australian_tourism", "gvar", + "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro", + "us_consumption_1Q", + # Yearly + "us_consumption_1Y", "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism", ], } @@ -106,48 +138,47 @@ DOMAIN_GROUPS = { "proenfo_gfc12", "proenfo_gfc14", "proenfo_gfc17", "solar_1D", "solar_1W", "solar_with_weather_15T", "solar_with_weather_1H", ], + "Retail": [ + "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_stores_1W", + "favorita_transactions_1D", "favorita_transactions_1M", "favorita_transactions_1W", + "hermes", + "hierarchical_sales_1D", "hierarchical_sales_1W", + "m5_1D", "m5_1M", "m5_1W", + "restaurant", + "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rohlik_sales_1W", + "rossmann_1D", "rossmann_1W", + "walmart", + ], "Nature": [ "jena_weather_10T", "jena_weather_1D", "jena_weather_1H", "uci_air_quality_1D", "uci_air_quality_1H", - "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", ], "Cloud": [ "bizitobs_l2c_1H", "bizitobs_l2c_5T", + "boomlet_1062", "boomlet_1209", "boomlet_1225", "boomlet_1230", "boomlet_1282", + "boomlet_1487", "boomlet_1631", "boomlet_1676", "boomlet_1855", "boomlet_1975", + "boomlet_2187", "boomlet_285", "boomlet_619", "boomlet_772", "boomlet_963", "redset_15T", "redset_1H", "redset_5T", - "M_DENSE_1D", "M_DENSE_1H", - ], - "Mobility": [ - "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", - "SZ_TAXI_15T", "SZ_TAXI_1H", - "world_tourism", - ], - "Econ": [ - "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro", - "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro", - "us_consumption_1M", "us_consumption_1Q", "us_consumption_1Y", - "gvar", ], "Health": [ - "hospital", "hospital_admissions_1D", "hospital_admissions_1W", "ecdc_ili", + "hospital", "hospital_admissions_1D", "hospital_admissions_1W", "uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1D/new", "uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative", "uk_covid_nation_1W/new", "uk_covid_utla_1D/new", "uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative", ], - "Retail": [ + "Econ": [ "australian_tourism", - "favorita_stores_1D", "favorita_stores_1M", "favorita_stores_1W", - "favorita_transactions_1D", "favorita_transactions_1M", "favorita_transactions_1W", - "hierarchical_sales_1D", "hierarchical_sales_1W", - "m5_1D", "m5_1M", "m5_1W", - "restaurant", - "rohlik_orders_1D", "rohlik_orders_1W", "rohlik_sales_1D", "rohlik_sales_1W", - "rossmann_1D", "rossmann_1W", - "walmart", - "hermes", - "boomlet_1062", "boomlet_1209", "boomlet_1225", "boomlet_1230", "boomlet_1282", - "boomlet_1487", "boomlet_1631", "boomlet_1676", "boomlet_1855", "boomlet_1975", - "boomlet_2187", "boomlet_285", "boomlet_619", "boomlet_772", "boomlet_963", + "fred_md_2025/cee", "fred_md_2025/macro", + "fred_qd_2025/cee", "fred_qd_2025/macro", + "gvar", + "us_consumption_1M", "us_consumption_1Q", "us_consumption_1Y", + "world_co2_emissions", "world_life_expectancy", "world_tourism", + ], + "Mobility": [ + "LOOP_SEATTLE_1D", "LOOP_SEATTLE_1H", "LOOP_SEATTLE_5T", + "M_DENSE_1D", "M_DENSE_1H", + "SZ_TAXI_15T", "SZ_TAXI_1H", ], } diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv index bac1a185660b8f6ce0a1ed0cad6ac3f500376978..d8258af96f141a41570aa8f1c84cdc5491c72052 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.83673469387756,38.05245966764596,0.0,1.1918681776984126,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,90.81632653061226,36.140871018314456,0.0,5.796362790254237,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,72.44897959183675,28.401200313055885,0.0,0.5035950857142858,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,72.44897959183672,29.457840087014375,0.0,51.15623996325397,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.3469387755102,23.42201367210007,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,65.3061224489796,28.041386853187323,0.0,7.982507160666666,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,63.26530612244898,27.355195223904172,0.0,1.205957883968254,0.5714285714285714,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,48.9795918367347,15.519602291715417,0.0,0.5222312566666667,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,40.306122448979586,1.8933676693514423,0.0,537.2896767779606,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoARIMA,33.163265306122454,-1.7785743452331637,0.0,413.94069237515214,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoETS,29.59183673469387,3.9948381437565517,0.0,7.19858586,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Seasonal Naive,28.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.6601822176666666,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,22.448979591836736,-12.949758939559475,0.0,4.9961080071428565,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.387755102040813,-155.35963356905293,0.0,0.7404548423333334,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.081632653061225,-174.3872081501419,0.0,0.7429390493333333,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,91.42857142857143,41.8883400084654,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,89.64285714285714,42.5157996441094,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,40.26605685743614,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.14285714285714,38.09940067233815,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,35.579899495667256,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,61.07142857142858,34.44493255866505,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.285714285714285,30.890375999745544,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.857142857142854,31.63477113942893,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,33.75,10.28649321258931,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 +AutoARIMA,32.32142857142858,11.154754181413495,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,27.500000000000004,6.832233342669413,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,24.107142857142858,9.00813293024486,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 +Naive,23.214285714285715,-25.50199780067157,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.892857142857144,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 +Drift,8.928571428571429,-32.85429096552939,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 9a5bc85e4a9f4f501c020913bf2060c4be127819..29e578e2e0323a149a309b46650bc43f82f58ee6 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.87755102040816,49.490930346405136,0.0,1.1918681776984126,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,88.77551020408163,47.50014141652608,0.0,5.796362790254237,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.51020408163265,41.22969676780125,0.0,0.5035950857142858,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,73.46938775510203,41.85090900496293,0.0,51.15623996325397,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.40816326530611,40.949152552893196,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.28571428571426,38.16384284705047,0.0,1.205957883968254,0.5714285714285714,0.0 -Sundial-Base,62.244897959183675,38.72536792163377,0.0,7.982507160666666,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.020408163265316,29.529054869503735,0.0,0.5222312566666667,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,40.30612244897959,3.5776890137698247,0.0,537.2896767779606,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoARIMA,35.204081632653065,7.303665966467543,0.0,413.94069237515214,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoETS,26.530612244897956,-62.75686000684577,0.0,7.19858586,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Seasonal Naive,23.46938775510204,0.0,0.0,0.6601822176666666,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,19.387755102040813,-81.00666949062581,0.0,4.9961080071428565,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.387755102040813,-229.40102452200532,0.0,0.7404548423333334,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.122448979591836,-246.64002849728638,0.0,0.7429390493333333,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,91.78571428571428,63.05871546601058,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.42857142857143,63.92789671191335,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,83.57142857142857,61.98663044796851,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,80.35714285714285,60.87156591539495,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.21428571428572,58.41610987284718,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,59.64285714285715,56.647735223836015,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,58.57142857142858,54.85929055283013,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.50000000000001,53.05789136035014,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,38.03571428571428,32.58752067086065,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 +Stat. Ensemble,34.82142857142856,20.1052436267542,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 +AutoETS,28.035714285714285,-26.853793211441058,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,-2.1145171067117996,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.107142857142854,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.571428571428573,-102.14853969808834,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.214285714285715,-110.2431874466197,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 94f84059499865497642a7ad300630a561c61291..eec1c903a209835f36ed7d35dcf4684fe5178555 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,98.9795918367347,56.03346299319774,0.0,1.1918681776984126,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.63265306122449,48.21786745822298,0.0,5.796362790254237,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,81.63265306122447,48.7000590002878,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,71.42857142857142,43.82087074087539,0.0,1.205957883968254,0.5714285714285714,0.0 -Toto-1.0,68.36734693877553,41.61099035591892,0.0,51.15623996325397,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,66.32653061224491,43.211573262995806,0.0,0.5035950857142858,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,63.26530612244898,41.3524784258674,0.0,0.5222312566666667,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,63.26530612244898,44.73884694559522,0.0,7.982507160666666,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.183673469387756,14.464019735134869,0.0,537.2896767779606,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoETS,28.57142857142857,-14.23026831192631,0.0,7.19858586,0.0,28.57142857142857 -AutoARIMA,26.02040816326531,5.087762742948254,0.0,413.94069237515214,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Naive,21.428571428571423,-20.643758684236204,0.0,0.7404548423333334,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.408163265306122,0.0,0.0,0.6601822176666666,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,18.36734693877551,3.978899086144194,0.0,4.9961080071428565,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.1224489795918355,-31.5302295862653,0.0,0.7429390493333333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.78571428571428,50.572763239812836,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,91.07142857142858,47.121114882947566,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,81.42857142857142,46.247719637805126,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.49999999999999,44.52063533547439,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.5,42.792548583451826,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,66.78571428571429,43.22422155533027,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.71428571428571,39.893668788246494,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,60.71428571428571,41.96635843416393,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,32.32142857142857,15.58065226385924,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 +AutoARIMA,28.392857142857142,14.643401272886948,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 +AutoETS,23.75,5.6618608592632125,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,23.57142857142857,12.660865629460227,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 +Naive,23.21428571428571,4.49837332329478,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,12.321428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 +Drift,8.928571428571429,-1.7537851144645122,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv index a8ab38876830e3a2df4ca5a088d650d39d511405..a6c14636f7927ce24469253ce4f1eae74c16b4f7 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,98.9795918367347,65.98215550494277,0.0,1.1918681776984126,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.67346938775509,59.57802369715834,0.0,5.796362790254237,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,82.6530612244898,60.40100082559561,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.51020408163266,55.598937937465834,0.0,0.5035950857142858,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.40816326530611,55.32886174057864,0.0,1.205957883968254,0.5714285714285714,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.32653061224491,54.42827487532307,0.0,51.15623996325397,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,63.26530612244898,53.22642686457293,0.0,0.5222312566666667,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,59.18367346938776,55.40077093761375,0.0,7.982507160666666,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.183673469387756,10.25845553392335,0.0,537.2896767779606,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoARIMA,30.102040816326525,12.554876196379128,0.0,413.94069237515214,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Seasonal Naive,21.428571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.6601822176666666,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,19.387755102040813,-33.30969552158369,0.0,4.9961080071428565,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,18.36734693877551,-109.16593122552642,0.0,7.19858586,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Naive,18.36734693877551,-89.49216169864154,0.0,0.7404548423333334,0.0,0.0 -Drift,8.16326530612245,-99.7014127864285,0.0,0.7429390493333333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.5,66.94397676110452,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,90.35714285714286,64.45690397421868,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285712,63.753748722726,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,80.71428571428571,62.74382048051918,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.92857142857143,61.08750955081813,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.00000000000001,59.171399643395425,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.357142857142854,58.158162956775406,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,58.928571428571445,59.213728716592804,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,36.25,33.35224855510223,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 +Stat. Ensemble,32.67857142857142,20.842955409190168,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 +AutoETS,24.82142857142857,-39.99504769759261,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,7.361982670066736,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.035714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.214285714285715,-64.97889014234586,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.9285714285714293,-71.7471743876533,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv index 228f44ecce87fa4f850236eb6d2c54b0a7a3a4dc..07c4b8fd72cf2537cbdfe12a1cbf3d43aec91c4b 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.063,0.027 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.02,0.072 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.061,0.027,0.114 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.053,0.164 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.037,0.182 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.094,0.224 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.15,0.075,0.231 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.266,0.45 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.264,0.448 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.295,0.468 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.267,0.469 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.377,0.689 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.529 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.414,0.702 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.011,-0.028,0.059 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.03,-0.022,0.079 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.135,0.046,0.229 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.122,0.038,0.203 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.191,0.061,0.341 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.139,0.048,0.214 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.067,0.233 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.15,0.363 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.233,0.499 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.271,0.505 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.355,0.25,0.46 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.238,0.51 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.35,0.551 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.551,0.886 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.588,0.89 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.031,-0.085,0.022 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,0.009,0.071 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.022,0.128 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.168 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.123,0.07,0.182 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.101,0.231 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.092,0.234 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.272,0.454 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.266,0.453 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.296,0.47 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.281,0.468 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.386,0.689 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.331,0.534 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.421,0.704 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.078,0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.077,-0.009 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.108,0.049,0.176 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.095,0.034,0.149 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.166,0.024,0.347 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,-0.009,0.213 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.121,0.059,0.189 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.122,0.35 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.227,0.474 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.266,0.479 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.224,0.453 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.224,0.486 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.324,0.53 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.75,0.518,0.887 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.558,0.891 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.156,-0.297,-0.049 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.121,-0.213,-0.052 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.0,0.077 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.115 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.041,0.137 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.136,0.068,0.199 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.126,0.059,0.207 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.261,0.415 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.254,0.415 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.283,0.436 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.268,0.433 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.366,0.676 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.318,0.501 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.402,0.69 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.065,-0.129,-0.028 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.146,-0.022 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.083,0.0 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.015,-0.072,0.045 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.065,-0.129,0.262 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.005,-0.2,0.132 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.014,-0.031,0.05 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.152,-0.001,0.287 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.12,0.406 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.176,0.414 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.108,0.403 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.155,0.42 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.233,0.475 -TiRex,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.72,0.431,0.876 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.489,0.882 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.139,-0.254,-0.04 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.105,-0.176,-0.035 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.015,-0.047,0.067 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.079,-0.086,0.285 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.16,0.156 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.029,-0.053,0.092 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.165,-0.02,0.309 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.129,0.43 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.307,0.186,0.439 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.136,0.391 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.179,0.422 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.221,0.491 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.724,0.434,0.876 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.743,0.489,0.883 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.236,-0.517,-0.065 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.199,-0.53,-0.024 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.07,-0.356,0.114 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.086,-0.399,0.08 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.064,-0.24,0.078 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.054,-0.294,0.11 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.094,-0.113,0.281 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.219,-0.094,0.447 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.248,-0.066,0.455 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.202,-0.092,0.392 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.234,-0.09,0.436 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.322,0.125,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.48,0.83 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.526,0.84 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.162,-0.273,-0.05 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.127,-0.27,0.009 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.005,-0.152,0.166 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.184,0.138 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.06,-0.084,0.194 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.009,-0.115,0.172 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.148,-0.01,0.289 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.267,0.09,0.417 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.293,0.117,0.433 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.25,0.076,0.398 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.28,0.066,0.452 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.257,0.47 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.718,0.504,0.857 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.738,0.546,0.864 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.173,-0.304,-0.072 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.138,-0.233,-0.063 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.015,-0.053,0.03 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.03,-0.101,0.05 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.051,-0.124,0.227 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.208,0.103 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.039,0.014,0.065 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,-0.026,0.115 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.038,0.166 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.018,0.172 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.233,0.392 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.231,0.382 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.412 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.235,0.41 +TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.507,0.342,0.658 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.295,0.476 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.385,0.676 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.056 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.202,-0.056 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.13,-0.036 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.041,-0.07,-0.015 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.5,0.857,0.14,0.0,0.266 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.26,0.086,0.418 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.286,0.143,0.422 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.243,0.077,0.408 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.274,0.108,0.436 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.209,0.476 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.716,0.444,0.869 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.735,0.49,0.876 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.571,-0.176 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.538,-0.138 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.18,-0.403,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.198,-0.448,0.02 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.103,-0.392,0.101 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.174,-0.407,0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.143,0.5,-0.163,-0.362,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.017,-0.056,0.065 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.425,0.825,0.068,-0.002,0.135 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.02,0.138 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.282,0.201,0.366 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.275,0.203,0.354 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.237,0.386 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.292,0.208,0.382 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.487,0.322,0.638 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.356,0.268,0.451 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.369,0.657 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.223,-0.038 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.14,-0.222,-0.075 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.159,-0.043 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.059,-0.129,0.025 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.018,-0.069,0.053 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.051,-0.023,0.126 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.041,-0.034,0.11 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.269,0.182,0.361 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.262,0.175,0.353 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.22,0.377 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.379 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.322,0.626 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.344,0.246,0.453 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.358,0.646 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.288,-0.104 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.3,-0.112 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.157,-0.248,-0.073 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.198,-0.039 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.575,-0.073,-0.156,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.054,-0.144,0.022 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.139,-0.14,0.36 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.17,-0.089,0.376 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.12,-0.149,0.358 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.155,-0.161,0.412 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.033,0.435 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.669,0.403,0.834 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.463,0.841 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.584,-0.995,-0.304 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.536,-0.903,-0.294 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.37,-0.683,-0.137 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.756,-0.148 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.281,-0.808,0.086 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.363,-0.714,-0.099 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.35,-0.719,-0.094 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.161,-0.563,0.122 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.128,0.086 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.23,0.124,0.336 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.222,0.121,0.337 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.353 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.24,0.131,0.358 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.449,0.297,0.601 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.185,0.434 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.341,0.624 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.176,-0.301,-0.081 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.102 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.144,-0.261,-0.063 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.104,-0.208,-0.019 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.161,0.019 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.043,-0.123,0.033 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.095,0.114 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.095,0.36 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.231,0.096,0.351 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.266,0.154,0.375 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.249,0.114,0.367 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.455,0.285,0.6 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.316,0.178,0.443 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.485,0.326,0.621 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.817,-0.362 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.833,-0.374 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.502,-0.711,-0.353 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.449,-0.646,-0.304 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.393,-0.578,-0.251 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.369,-0.564,-0.223 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.298,-0.505,-0.141 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.312,-0.562,-0.106 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.036,-0.002,0.08 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.786,0.5,1.0,-0.022,-0.307,0.137 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.286,1.0,0.019,-0.25,0.205 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.131,0.062,0.216 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.616,0.223,0.838 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.642,0.294,0.848 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.643,-1.019,-0.372 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.92,-0.363 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.707,-0.213 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.443,-0.781,-0.229 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.329,-0.835,0.062 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.414,-0.762,-0.132 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.401,-0.729,-0.167 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.205,-0.603,0.082 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.037,-0.086,0.002 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.475,0.274,0.675,-0.01,-0.058,0.025 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,-0.013,0.087 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.014,-0.091,0.087 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.285,0.06,0.51 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.775,0.624,0.925,0.103,-0.009,0.19 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.325,0.11,0.536 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.811,-0.358 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.546,-0.83,-0.363 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.708,-0.341 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.619,-0.301 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.379,-0.548,-0.255 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.355,-0.545,-0.212 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.286,-0.508,-0.137 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.3,-0.541,-0.106 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.525,0.325,0.726,0.01,-0.026,0.055 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.06,-0.331,0.114 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.286,1.0,-0.018,-0.265,0.149 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.099,-0.004,0.2 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.601,0.194,0.836 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.629,0.256,0.844 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.55,-0.852,-0.333 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.828,-0.288 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.341,-0.675,-0.121 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.642,-0.158 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.254,-0.646,0.084 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.334,-0.661,-0.082 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.322,-0.688,-0.083 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.136,-0.557,0.13 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,0.021,-0.159,0.235 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.057,-0.129,0.248 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.04,-0.118,0.167 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.15,-0.034,0.329 -AutoETS,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.624,0.235,0.842 -AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.65,0.295,0.85 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-1.041,-0.312 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.947,-0.288 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.724,-0.183 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.729,-0.218 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.306,-0.774,0.082 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.39,-0.824,-0.071 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.377,-0.774,-0.121 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.184,-0.7,0.139 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.0,0.714,-0.019,-0.258,0.2 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.0,0.714,0.017,-0.176,0.209 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.042,-0.2,0.106 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.115,-0.146,0.312 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.608,0.1,0.842 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.636,0.176,0.852 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.823,-1.225,-0.538 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.127,-0.48 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.578,-0.905,-0.304 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.964,-0.284 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.475,-0.96,-0.142 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.885,-0.346 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.907,-0.264 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.769,-0.035 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.151,-0.275,-0.066 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.11,-0.25,0.004 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.176,-0.49,0.033 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.129,-0.453,0.128 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.046,-0.017,0.107 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.725,0.549,0.9,0.024,-0.086,0.103 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.292,0.063,0.513 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.675,0.95,0.112,0.008,0.197 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.331,0.115,0.536 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.603,-0.881,-0.419 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.887,-0.421 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.774,-0.394 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.701,-0.356 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.628,-0.31 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.606,-0.282 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.348,-0.546,-0.206 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.363,-0.6,-0.182 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.096,0.013 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.049,-0.12,0.017 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.558,0.164,0.798 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.588,0.228,0.807 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.122,-7.783,-1.228 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.999,-7.824,-1.076 -Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.567,-7.063,-0.758 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.62,-7.093,-0.765 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.335,-4.873,-0.923 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.549,-5.988,-1.015 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.515,-6.605,-0.798 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.023,-5.038,-0.675 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.603,-5.179,-0.287 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.509,-5.089,-0.241 -Naive,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.66,-5.31,-0.307 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.554,-5.327,-0.111 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.261,-3.954,-0.196 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.024,-0.139,0.055 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.258,0.05,0.468 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.068,-0.06,0.171 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.299,0.104,0.491 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.883,-0.364 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.881,-0.391 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.762,-0.366 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.695,-0.307 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.412,-0.619,-0.262 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.388,-0.611,-0.225 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.317,-0.559,-0.151 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.331,-0.581,-0.129 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.014,-0.096,0.083 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.1,0.451,-0.024,-0.115,0.079 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.058,0.122 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Naive,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.275,0.032,0.5 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.026,0.154 +AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.315,0.081,0.528 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.16,-2.211,-0.604 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.183,-2.214,-0.628 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.101,-2.085,-0.578 +Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.027,-1.923,-0.52 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.948,-1.762,-0.475 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.673,-0.476 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.816,-1.505,-0.423 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.836,-1.501,-0.399 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.399,-1.041,-0.063 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.413,-1.052,-0.067 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.347,-0.881,-0.053 +Naive,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.379,-1.0,-0.033 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.026,0.121 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.429,-8.131,-1.426 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.297,-8.213,-1.264 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.832,-7.478,-0.955 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.89,-7.513,-0.958 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.583,-5.236,-1.108 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.813,-6.342,-1.203 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.777,-7.089,-0.959 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.248,-5.291,-0.864 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.797,-5.563,-0.417 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.696,-5.426,-0.344 -Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.858,-5.652,-0.418 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.744,-5.776,-0.214 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.429,-4.187,-0.296 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.138,-0.027 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,-0.255,-0.874,0.087 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.031,0.085 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.122,-0.477 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.148,-0.496 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-1.003,-0.466 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.909,-0.418 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.552,-0.822,-0.365 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.525,-0.83,-0.326 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.447,-0.766,-0.228 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.463,-0.796,-0.216 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.075,0.376,-0.115,-0.235,0.009 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.175,0.05,0.325,-0.126,-0.245,-0.008 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.073,-0.206,0.057 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.181,-0.027 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,0.203,-0.096,0.466 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.247,-0.04,0.497 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.286,-2.359,-0.705 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.311,-2.381,-0.728 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.224,-2.223,-0.673 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.146,-2.086,-0.627 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.913,-0.584 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.828,-0.559 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.922,-1.659,-0.517 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.943,-1.639,-0.484 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.481,-1.157,-0.124 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.495,-1.156,-0.13 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.426,-0.966,-0.116 +Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.46,-1.12,-0.088 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.093,-0.032 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.329,-0.989,0.038 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv index abddc052c0ddc537ee0f5df6ecc55f429de47f15..7b9b57f258953de62b81deef979e11ae38ad66da 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.08,0.018 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.024,0.076 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,0.022,0.104 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.064,0.169 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.071,0.211 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.182,0.124,0.236 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.291 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.369,0.537 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.448,0.619 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.666,0.482,0.815 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.54,0.72 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.521,0.73 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.817,0.735,0.877 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.824,0.744,0.882 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.018,0.074 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.038,-0.013,0.083 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.141,0.045,0.25 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.131,0.049,0.216 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.145,0.064,0.222 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.183,0.08,0.301 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.176,0.087,0.25 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.156,0.383 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.357,0.605 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.362,0.547 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.689,0.409,0.903 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.41,0.577 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.554,0.828 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.847,0.671,0.926 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.854,0.688,0.929 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.039,-0.09,0.013 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.017,0.09 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.078,0.024,0.139 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.069,0.2 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.134,0.261 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.232,0.162,0.3 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.381,0.55 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.47,0.623 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.674,0.501,0.819 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.555,0.727 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.533,0.735 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.822,0.746,0.879 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.828,0.756,0.883 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.029,-0.082,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.099,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.107,0.042,0.193 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.097,0.031,0.159 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.111,0.016,0.222 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.056,0.255 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.143,0.031,0.235 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.119,0.358 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.335,0.58 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.349,0.516 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.675,0.381,0.9 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.475,0.393,0.554 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.71,0.524,0.828 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.841,0.644,0.926 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.849,0.665,0.928 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.164,-0.333,-0.047 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.119,-0.239,-0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.014,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.143 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.165 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.158,0.095,0.217 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.19,0.124,0.257 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.367,0.511 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.451,0.594 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.476,0.811 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.534,0.71 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.519,0.713 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.812,0.731,0.872 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.819,0.742,0.877 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.059,-0.116,-0.023 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.162,-0.025 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.086,0.013 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.07,0.045 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.005,-0.158,0.135 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.05,-0.011,0.106 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.041,-0.183,0.164 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.166,0.028,0.28 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.229,0.529 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.261,0.461 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.266,0.895 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.322,0.511 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.675,0.439,0.811 -TiRex,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.822,0.574,0.919 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.83,0.605,0.921 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.151,-0.275,-0.051 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.108,-0.189,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.048,0.066 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.015,-0.11,0.148 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.06,-0.039,0.143 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.051,-0.127,0.174 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.175,-0.003,0.312 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.238,0.545 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.263,0.479 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.288,0.894 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.345,0.504 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.679,0.445,0.81 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.823,0.583,0.919 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.832,0.605,0.922 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.169,-0.286,-0.069 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.125,-0.285,-0.016 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.005,-0.156,0.137 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.016,-0.174,0.099 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.045,-0.07,0.18 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.036,-0.064,0.119 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.162,0.017,0.303 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.388,0.23,0.557 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.363,0.235,0.492 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.637,0.269,0.893 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.409,0.281,0.516 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.674,0.495,0.785 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.821,0.612,0.909 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.83,0.64,0.913 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.224,-0.431,-0.087 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.178,-0.342,-0.06 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.052,-0.118,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.063,-0.167,0.038 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.047,-0.219,0.065 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.09 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.013,0.151 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.073,0.186 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.166,0.079,0.247 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.343,0.497 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.425,0.585 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.453,0.808 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.513,0.698 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.499,0.709 +TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.806,0.72,0.869 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.814,0.729,0.874 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.126,-0.203,-0.068 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.249,-0.074 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.167,-0.039 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.063,-0.099,-0.03 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,-0.009,-0.25,0.122 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.5,0.857,0.123,0.0,0.24 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.359,0.173,0.523 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.203,0.452 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.62,0.193,0.892 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.254,0.508 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.658,0.412,0.793 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.812,0.556,0.911 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.822,0.59,0.914 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.213,-0.333,-0.095 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.167,-0.307,-0.032 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.043,-0.196,0.155 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.054,-0.211,0.113 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.135,0.06 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,0.009,-0.139,0.2 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.041,-0.045,0.091 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.017,0.14 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.114,0.03,0.194 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.305,0.459 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.48,0.391,0.559 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.628,0.423,0.798 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.593,0.49,0.673 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.469,0.689 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.794,0.704,0.859 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.802,0.716,0.864 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.268,-0.077 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.14,-0.198,-0.085 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.108,-0.178,-0.013 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.043,-0.1,0.043 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.13,-0.06,0.302 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.23,0.506 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.227,0.45 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.262,0.887 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.265,0.493 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.661,0.48,0.781 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.814,0.612,0.904 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.823,0.641,0.91 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.395,-0.62,-0.185 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.559,-0.135 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.199,-0.389,-0.029 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.212,-0.453,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.193,-0.435,-0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.143,0.5,-0.14,-0.316,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.15,-0.432,0.056 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.037,0.117 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,0.006,0.138 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.281,0.436 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.378,0.534 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.404,0.793 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.487,0.657 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.454,0.668 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.704,0.848 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.794,0.716,0.854 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.31,-0.142 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.352,-0.155 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.187,-0.277,-0.105 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.229,-0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.162,-0.017 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.041,-0.133,0.036 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.269,0.043,0.463 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.24,0.05,0.401 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.567,0.067,0.881 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.295,0.076,0.483 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.611,0.35,0.762 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.786,0.537,0.893 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.797,0.571,0.897 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.909,-1.534,-0.555 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.837,-1.378,-0.504 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.641,-1.125,-0.296 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.658,-1.196,-0.312 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.633,-1.256,-0.298 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.559,-1.098,-0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.574,-1.026,-0.299 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.368,-0.862,-0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.04,-0.15,0.05 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.408,-0.284,0.823 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.036,-0.256,0.214 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.186,0.686 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.707,0.404,0.867 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.722,0.433,0.871 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.835,-1.206,-0.568 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.766,-1.068,-0.536 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.577,-0.855,-0.354 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.919,-0.356 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.57,-0.97,-0.308 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.499,-0.826,-0.255 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.818,-0.293 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.315,-0.669,-0.052 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.039,-0.053,0.13 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.038,-0.082,0.139 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.33,0.236,0.434 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.435,0.328,0.531 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.597,0.372,0.786 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.558,0.453,0.645 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.67 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.777,0.686,0.844 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.7,0.851 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.271,-0.41,-0.151 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.429,-0.193 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.235,-0.346,-0.141 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.2,-0.328,-0.086 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.129,-0.24,-0.03 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.083,-0.161,-0.006 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.04,-0.162,0.076 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.205,0.404 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.412,0.312,0.505 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.586,0.354,0.779 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.54,0.433,0.639 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.531,0.407,0.643 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.681,0.835 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.696,0.841 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.825,-1.161,-0.584 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.222,-0.615 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.773,-1.043,-0.58 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-0.989,-0.521 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.848,-0.438 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.773,-0.392 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.493,-0.768,-0.309 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.677,-0.258 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.43,-0.147,0.827 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.073,-0.106,0.208 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.488,0.194,0.692 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.719,0.393,0.871 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.733,0.428,0.875 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.219,-9.31,-0.693 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.074,-8.951,-0.617 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.767,-8.555,-0.363 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.799,-8.419,-0.405 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.756,-8.384,-0.369 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.632,-8.245,-0.239 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.656,-7.873,-0.356 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.31,-7.438,-0.072 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.688,-4.665,0.221 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.756,-4.782,0.128 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.875,0.156,0.073,0.244 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.434,0.08,0.713 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.476 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.326,0.18,0.457 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.667,0.521,0.764 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.679,0.545,0.773 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.625,-0.811 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.215,-1.654,-0.887 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.466,-0.82 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.042,-1.411,-0.739 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.921,-1.267,-0.642 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.843,-1.145,-0.609 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.77,-1.134,-0.488 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.702,-1.019,-0.454 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.125,0.475,-0.185,-0.323,-0.078 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.363,-0.063,0.684 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.089,0.375 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.201,-0.013,0.369 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.605,0.443,0.725 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.465,0.735 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.991,-4.394,-0.932 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.072,-4.534,-1.004 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.92,-4.291,-0.907 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.837,-4.196,-0.83 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.688,-3.95,-0.734 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.595,-3.825,-0.677 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.484,-3.678,-0.591 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.414,-3.528,-0.549 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.767,-2.48,-0.087 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.569,-2.162,0.059 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.628,-4.036,0.139 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.101,-2.03,0.639 -AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.506,-1.139,0.856 -AutoETS,Drift,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.53,-0.97,0.863 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.98,-1.367,-0.696 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.905,-1.245,-0.648 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.702,-1.046,-0.475 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.72,-1.016,-0.528 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.693,-1.067,-0.391 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-1.032,-0.341 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.632,-0.974,-0.36 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.419,-0.932,-0.082 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.272,0.204 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.079,-0.263,0.096 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.386,-0.161,0.801 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.448,0.054,0.678 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.696,0.264,0.868 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.712,0.302,0.875 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.584,-4.814,-1.242 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.448,-4.81,-1.1 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.08,-4.283,-0.781 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.113,-4.254,-0.802 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.065,-3.645,-0.982 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.927,-3.826,-0.699 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.954,-3.565,-0.923 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.569,-3.209,-0.539 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.877,-2.184,-0.228 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.953,-2.242,-0.241 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.112,-1.773,0.67 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.81,-2.102,-0.057 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.25,-1.708,0.289 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.269,-1.702,0.285 +AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.34,-0.612,0.679 +AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.363,-0.555,0.692 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.764,-2.575,-1.173 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.831,-2.661,-1.245 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.686,-2.451,-1.145 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.316,-1.054 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.456,-2.054,-0.962 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.355,-1.914,-0.951 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.262,-1.821,-0.828 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.175,-1.772,-0.765 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.515,-0.908,-0.255 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.278,-0.6,-0.097 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.2,-0.407,0.631 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.45,0.184,0.614 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.478,0.227,0.628 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.522,-12.534,-2.038 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.274,-12.423,-1.812 -Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-4.605,-11.349,-1.348 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.665,-11.417,-1.395 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.578,-9.958,-1.578 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-4.327,-10.207,-1.251 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.376,-9.408,-1.578 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-3.674,-8.348,-1.161 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.416,-6.491,-0.679 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.554,-6.751,-0.649 -Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-1.024,-5.956,0.533 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-2.294,-6.6,-0.359 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.82,-1.588,-0.226 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.021,-0.413,0.245 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.495,0.359,0.605 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.514,0.382,0.62 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.709,-1.086 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.77,-1.139 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.631,-2.486,-1.077 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.437,-0.997 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-2.214,-0.883 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.307,-2.016,-0.832 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.215,-2.027,-0.704 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.13,-1.801,-0.687 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.483,-0.841,-0.219 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.252,-0.585,0.013 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.212,-0.398,0.63 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.021,-0.325,0.292 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.505,0.274,0.671 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.524,0.302,0.688 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.472,-7.119,-2.772 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.604,-7.24,-2.94 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.318,-6.839,-2.721 +Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-4.166,-6.661,-2.569 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.861,-6.072,-2.376 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-5.597,-2.374 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.478,-5.427,-2.188 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.306,-5.057,-2.139 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.999,-3.24,-1.086 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.53,-2.642,-0.795 +Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.516,-2.117,0.38 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.98,-1.531,-0.56 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-1.021,-2.041,-0.378 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.02,0.089 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.863,-13.014,-2.205 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.603,-12.834,-1.982 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.898,-11.729,-1.534 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.961,-11.889,-1.529 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.87,-10.504,-1.78 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.606,-10.633,-1.441 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.657,-10.09,-1.786 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.919,-8.711,-1.333 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.595,-6.774,-0.764 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.74,-7.009,-0.748 -Drift,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.714,-1.13,-6.314,0.492 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-2.466,-6.978,-0.433 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.915,-1.691,-0.293 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.098,-0.02 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.057 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.691,-7.48,-2.9 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.828,-7.54,-3.102 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.531,-7.137,-2.871 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.373,-6.957,-2.696 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.056,-6.361,-2.518 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.85,-5.831,-2.522 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.658,-5.689,-2.332 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.479,-5.272,-2.287 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.119,-3.399,-1.198 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.632,-2.779,-0.87 +Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.569,-2.25,0.357 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.059,-1.634,-0.617 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-1.102,-2.206,-0.433 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.061,-0.024 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 93ccfb8123e3a8a54fec50ba9ab6de61e282d756..23a326d9739a05f6b7af9995b6ff438fc5e46b0f 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.143,0.073,0.258 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.151,0.044,0.279 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.079,0.395 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.105,0.4 -Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.074,0.415 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.25,0.114,0.416 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.204,0.15,0.253 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.352,0.613 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.409,0.773 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.385,0.676 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.563,0.714 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.364,0.726 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.424,0.654 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.666,0.598,0.736 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.167,-0.347,-0.079 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.009,-0.052,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.087,-0.001,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.121,0.026,0.223 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.097,-0.008,0.215 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.125,0.032,0.214 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.072,-0.049,0.162 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.278,0.551 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.31,0.74 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.317,0.624 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.464,0.682 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.311,0.666 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.362,0.592 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.61,0.53,0.699 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.178,-0.388,-0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.009,-0.051,0.049 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.078,0.009,0.172 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.113,0.034,0.196 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.004,0.199 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.05,0.198 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.063,-0.055,0.138 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.268,0.544 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.309,0.739 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.454,0.31,0.615 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.445,0.686 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.31,0.655 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.344,0.588 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.606,0.516,0.701 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.278,-0.654,-0.086 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.095,-0.234,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.085,-0.208,-0.009 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.038,-0.036,0.119 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.011,-0.014,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.5,0.857,0.042,0.0,0.081 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.017,-0.27,0.116 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.18,0.52 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.216,0.728 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.247,0.593 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.534,0.353,0.67 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.276,0.628 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.283,0.564 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.573,0.448,0.687 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.668,-0.117 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.138,-0.286,-0.026 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.128,-0.244,-0.036 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.039,-0.136,0.034 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.065,-0.014,0.173 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.03,0.14 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.109,0.032,0.209 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.059,0.226 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.129,0.084,0.186 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.259 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.099,0.198 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.319,0.51 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.312,0.531 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.341,0.599 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.333,0.532 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.382,0.572 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.388,0.617 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.42,0.599 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.07,-0.21,0.014 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.028,-0.117,0.054 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.111,0.096 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.057,-0.279,0.086 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.171,0.463 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.222,0.72 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.238,0.552 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.355,0.644 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.269,0.58 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.277,0.509 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.451,0.663 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.292,-0.708,-0.08 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.107,-0.273,0.008 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.097,-0.248,0.004 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.011,-0.037,0.014 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.027,-0.057,0.105 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.048,0.069 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,-0.0,0.1 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.076,0.017,0.14 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,-0.015,0.137 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.053,0.182 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.089,-0.011,0.164 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.473 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.29,0.482 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.315,0.574 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.314,0.488 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.353,0.545 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.581 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.397,0.565 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.162,-0.031 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.017,-0.074,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.009,0.083 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.101 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.053,0.014,0.094 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.065,0.148 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.024,0.112 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.285,0.453 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.28,0.472 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.307,0.558 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.303,0.473 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.35,0.527 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.364,0.568 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.472,0.391,0.548 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.264,-0.033 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.091,0.009 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.032,-0.024,0.081 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.028,-0.31,0.12 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.336,0.169,0.515 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.503,0.197,0.728 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.239,0.583 -TiRex,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.529,0.338,0.668 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.275,0.621 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.272,0.554 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.434,0.684 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.334,-0.712,-0.129 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.143,-0.273,-0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.133,-0.247,-0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.143,0.5,-0.044,-0.089,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.106,0.1 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.033,-0.089,0.024 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,0.004,0.056 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.05,0.081 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.124 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,0.95,0.044,-0.063,0.112 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.258,0.427 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.265,0.443 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.412,0.283,0.547 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.286,0.45 +TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.419,0.321,0.511 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.35,0.545 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.377,0.533 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.292,-0.062 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.162,-0.017 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.064,-0.112,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.008,-0.075,0.05 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.003,0.096 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.014,-0.074,0.068 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.239,0.411 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.244,0.426 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.265,0.533 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.268,0.435 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.401,0.311,0.491 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.333,0.532 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.36,0.513 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.149,-0.229,-0.091 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.159,0.015 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.056,-0.103,-0.015 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.023,-0.089,0.048 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.008,-0.053,0.07 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.055,-0.022,0.125 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.022,-0.044,0.083 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.226,0.427 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.224,0.447 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.398,0.258,0.535 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.35,0.246,0.448 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.295,0.51 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.311,0.55 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.337,0.534 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.349,-0.115 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.137,-0.223,-0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.174,-0.069 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.083,-0.141,-0.031 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.106,-0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.143,0.022 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.061,-0.315,0.078 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.149,0.506 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.176,0.713 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.222,0.572 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.514,0.325,0.662 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.22,0.62 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.252,0.546 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.421,0.679 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.338,-0.176 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.077,-0.194,0.046 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.067,-0.16,0.052 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.016,-0.131,0.213 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.054,-0.094,0.218 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.027,-0.137,0.237 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.058,-0.084,0.239 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.036,-0.131,0.028 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.207,0.384 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.204,0.41 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.23,0.509 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.234,0.407 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.464 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.512 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.333,0.49 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.247,-0.11 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.196,0.011 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.126,-0.024 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.05,0.3,-0.046,-0.126,0.059 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.014,-0.073,0.069 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.022,-0.09,0.042 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.034,-0.029,0.116 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.211,0.501 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.278,0.71 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.253,0.577 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.447,0.641 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.447,0.235,0.637 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.298,0.546 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.489,0.675 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.945,-1.584,-0.543 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.667,-1.228,-0.385 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-1.193,-0.367 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-1.081,-0.22 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.465,-0.863,-0.207 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.506,-1.06,-0.203 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-1.024,-0.175 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-1.004,-0.267 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.227,0.408 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.224,0.423 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.251,0.518 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.245,0.426 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.306,0.478 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.312,0.53 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.347,0.507 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.708,-1.042,-0.469 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.898,-0.404 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.828,-0.398 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.746,-0.348 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.699,-0.314 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.746,-0.292 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.624,-0.261 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.688,-0.293 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.251,-0.089,0.59 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.099,0.04,0.168 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.291,0.111,0.457 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.145,-0.022,0.297 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.065,0.156 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.35,0.197,0.488 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.598,-3.4,-0.691 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-2.843,-0.449 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.206,-2.835,-0.447 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.033,-2.679,-0.276 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-2.566,-0.285 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.012,-2.671,-0.245 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.948,-2.49,-0.213 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.067,-2.451,-0.385 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.335,-1.439,0.081 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.204,-1.249,0.206 -AutoETS,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.053,-0.64,0.366 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.142,-1.244,0.281 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.19,-1.086,0.162 -AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.132,-0.519,0.422 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.159,-2.083,-0.626 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.659,-0.465 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.833,-1.598,-0.45 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.689,-1.455,-0.327 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-1.233,-0.313 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-1.397,-0.314 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-1.338,-0.285 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.718,-1.366,-0.338 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.202,-0.041 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.169,-0.259,0.555 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.011,-0.045,0.063 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.105,-0.033,0.285 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.033,-0.007,0.072 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.116,0.037,0.193 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.156,0.072,0.236 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.17,0.096,0.237 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.133,-0.453 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.93,-0.408 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.895,-0.389 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.797,-0.361 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.744,-0.323 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.808,-0.289 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.694,-0.256 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.734,-0.288 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.011,-0.067,0.043 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.213,-0.059,0.433 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.051,-0.11,0.186 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.012,-0.104,0.097 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.278,0.031,0.461 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.744,-2.501,-1.289 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.352,-2.14,-0.866 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.33,-2.188,-0.802 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.147,-2.033,-0.547 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.066,-1.806,-0.551 -Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.124,-2.011,-0.509 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.057,-1.958,-0.481 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.183,-1.785,-0.809 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.41,-0.84,-0.125 -Naive,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.056,-0.578,0.39 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.271,-0.765,0.055 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.095,-0.068,0.276 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.023,-0.039,0.083 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.106,-0.005,0.204 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.146,0.061,0.226 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.161,0.062,0.25 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.909,-1.495,-0.517 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.784,-1.345,-0.461 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.755,-1.264,-0.444 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.7,-1.21,-0.394 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-1.141,-0.36 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.662,-1.151,-0.347 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-1.035,-0.299 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-1.074,-0.334 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.117,-0.399,0.032 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.105,-0.381,0.063 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.08,-0.32,0.051 +AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.012,-0.2,0.142 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.057,-0.196,0.202 +AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.073,-0.137,0.197 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.135,-0.5 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-0.955,-0.458 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.898,-0.434 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.574,-0.817,-0.401 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.527,-0.77,-0.366 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.538,-0.812,-0.326 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.453,-0.687,-0.305 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.741,-0.324 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.035,-0.077,0.007 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.023,-0.09,0.037 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.074,-0.054,0.242 +AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.085,0.008,0.16 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.127,0.043,0.209 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.077,0.202 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.338,-0.617 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.806,-1.198,-0.545 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.777,-1.112,-0.538 +Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.721,-1.045,-0.472 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.669,-0.964,-0.452 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.039,-0.417 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.589,-0.866,-0.392 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.646,-0.915,-0.441 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.131,-0.239,-0.038 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.119,-0.256,0.005 +Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.012,-0.166,0.167 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.093,-0.19,-0.008 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.206,-0.723,0.161 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.256,-0.611,0.007 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.023,0.169 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.274,-2.646,-0.572 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.949,-1.993,-0.45 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.931,-1.902,-0.449 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.78,-1.688,-0.381 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.713,-1.383,-0.368 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.761,-1.636,-0.38 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.705,-1.63,-0.282 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.81,-1.758,-0.308 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.169,-0.423,0.021 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.125,-0.391,0.554 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.228,0.099 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.171,-0.191,0.42 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,0.045,-0.064,0.152 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.032,0.1 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.023,-1.609,-0.634 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.891,-1.385,-0.588 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.313,-0.572 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.802,-1.198,-0.539 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.748,-1.138,-0.499 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.761,-1.22,-0.452 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-1.049,-0.418 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.13,-0.453 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.185,-0.309,-0.078 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.172,-0.293,-0.065 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.252,0.164 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.145,-0.264,-0.045 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,-0.047,-0.179,0.06 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.041,-0.261,0.126 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.24,-0.1,0.453 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.892,-0.736 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.448,-0.566 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.854,-1.43,-0.524 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.709,-1.292,-0.396 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.035,-0.382 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.691,-1.241,-0.374 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-1.201,-0.336 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.738,-1.202,-0.425 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.185,-0.069 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.159,-0.193,0.521 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.012,-0.107,0.095 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.204,-0.007,0.379 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.04,-0.144,0.207 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.27,0.119,0.414 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.992,-2.789,-1.486 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.564,-2.319,-1.127 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.54,-2.349,-1.066 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.341,-2.19,-0.813 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.253,-1.965,-0.822 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.316,-2.16,-0.765 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.243,-2.11,-0.727 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.38,-2.08,-0.956 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.538,-0.954,-0.246 -Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.151,-0.731,0.341 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.386,-0.854,-0.032 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.09,-0.204,-0.024 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.315,-0.828,0.091 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.37,-0.705,-0.135 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.017,-0.096,0.115 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.492,-0.723 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.924,-1.3,-0.659 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.893,-1.214,-0.641 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.834,-1.143,-0.606 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.054,-0.562 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.792,-1.147,-0.508 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.96,-0.5 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.753,-1.028,-0.532 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.205,-0.311,-0.106 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.192,-0.333,-0.066 +Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.245,0.12 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.165,-0.253,-0.083 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.111,-0.033 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.018,-0.129,0.088 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv index d91a3460821b46bbcb4852dbd5a4ce67dff02940..faf977f75a96a53de0af8f206f61f2bc55c4d5d7 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.158,0.043,0.301 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.07,0.248 -Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.066,0.44 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.081,0.442 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.095,0.423 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.116,0.461 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.176,0.3 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.621,0.505,0.718 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.469,0.728 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.518,0.784 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.662,0.803 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.836,0.613,0.945 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.82,0.76,0.862 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.83,0.773,0.869 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.188,-0.43,-0.044 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.07,-0.014,0.185 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.088,0.033,0.155 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.113,0.032,0.222 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.066,0.248 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.134,0.247 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.134,0.3 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.145,0.236 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.412,0.597 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.505,0.655 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.573,0.855 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.566,0.707 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.669,0.582,0.746 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.8,0.757,0.837 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.808,0.765,0.845 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.075,-0.227,0.013 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.019,-0.047,0.073 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.0,0.095 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.03,0.145 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.024,0.218 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.21 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.024,0.201 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.398,0.544 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.473,0.628 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.535,0.843 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.616,0.541,0.683 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.562,0.725 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.726,0.829 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.793,0.736,0.838 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.097,-0.183,-0.034 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.02,-0.079,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.021,-0.079,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.007,0.207 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.095,0.015,0.207 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.113,0.03,0.202 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.054,0.235 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.094,-0.049,0.187 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.434,0.665 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.423,0.656 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.596,0.478,0.721 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.588,0.781 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.803,0.518,0.937 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.787,0.675,0.848 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.798,0.698,0.855 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.164,-0.329,-0.075 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.02,-0.044,0.073 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.108,-0.007,0.257 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.114,0.004,0.261 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.131,0.027,0.239 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.153,0.034,0.286 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.112,0.012,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.448,0.667 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.416,0.665 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.604,0.48,0.73 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.608,0.775 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.811,0.538,0.939 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.791,0.695,0.848 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.802,0.717,0.856 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.785,-0.071 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.098,-0.261,0.007 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.121,-0.347,0.007 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.018,0.086 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.116 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,0.044,0.188 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.092,0.179 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.111,0.06,0.148 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.384,0.539 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.468,0.619 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.704,0.532,0.841 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.535,0.678 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.557,0.714 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.727,0.825 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.739,0.832 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.127,-0.285,-0.033 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.105,-0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.095,0.018 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.006,-0.015,0.026 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.026,-0.065,0.105 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.051,-0.006,0.102 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.004,-0.311,0.159 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.348,0.638 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.356,0.628 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.436,0.696 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.667,0.5,0.768 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.428,0.936 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.607,0.845 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.637,0.852 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.793,-0.088 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.105,-0.261,-0.015 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.128,-0.353,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.006,-0.027,0.015 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.043,0.019,0.07 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.087,-0.014,0.174 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.11,0.064,0.155 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,-0.025,0.153 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.376,0.512 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.452,0.602 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.514,0.839 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.598,0.521,0.663 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.627,0.54,0.71 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.712,0.821 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.783,0.724,0.829 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.177,-0.33,-0.071 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.169,-0.031 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.074,-0.131,-0.029 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.044,-0.075,-0.02 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.02,-0.073,0.112 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.5,0.857,0.045,0.0,0.086 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,-0.002,-0.318,0.152 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.345,0.643 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.353,0.631 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.432,0.699 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.496,0.769 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.426,0.936 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.764,0.605,0.843 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.637,0.849 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.735,-0.106 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.127,-0.253,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.151,-0.315,-0.028 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.026,-0.117,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.02,-0.127,0.068 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.026,-0.104,0.134 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.022,-0.267,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.353,0.615 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.352,0.593 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.442,0.668 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.658,0.504,0.757 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.782,0.435,0.933 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.603,0.842 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.772,0.634,0.848 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.856,-0.131 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.308,-0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.181,-0.401,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.053,-0.114,0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.143,0.5,-0.047,-0.095,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.026,-0.155,0.094 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.047,-0.055,0.137 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,0.975,0.07,0.023,0.118 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.046,-0.056,0.104 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.347,0.496 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.423,0.589 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.494,0.835 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.498,0.651 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.523,0.693 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.764,0.7,0.813 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.715,0.821 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.235,-0.329,-0.154 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.149,-0.279,-0.025 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.126,-0.232,-0.046 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.096,-0.211,0.014 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.049,-0.159,0.053 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.024,-0.094,0.121 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.093,0.08 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.387,0.274,0.491 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.484,0.39,0.568 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.676,0.465,0.829 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.468,0.641 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.483,0.685 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.698,0.798 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.762,0.711,0.806 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.429,-0.154 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.266,-0.097 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.218,-0.101 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.123,-0.183,-0.069 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.025,0.301,-0.075,-0.134,-0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.025,-0.137,0.086 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.049,-0.364,0.121 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.332,0.621 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.332,0.614 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.395,0.691 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.48,0.764 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.408,0.935 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.596,0.83 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.629,0.838 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.428,-0.214 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.103,-0.23,0.047 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.126,-0.234,-0.012 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.004,-0.189,0.237 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,0.002,-0.18,0.241 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.136,0.211 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.046,-0.138,0.267 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.026,-0.135,0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.287,0.466 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.385,0.561 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.664,0.456,0.823 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.464,0.625 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.486,0.675 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.698,0.805 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.309,-0.169 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.251,-0.025 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.125,-0.173,-0.063 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.095,-0.18,0.025 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.048,-0.116,0.053 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.086,0.085 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.048,0.119 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.382,0.61 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.49,0.347,0.613 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.401,0.692 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.562,0.745 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.787,0.484,0.931 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.679,0.824 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.699,0.835 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.638,-2.549,-1.019 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.982,-0.767 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.266,-2.003,-0.812 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-1.759,-0.534 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.009,-1.797,-0.527 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.969,-1.597,-0.546 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.639,-0.498 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.012,-1.565,-0.619 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.026,-0.137,0.079 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.137,0.273 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.129,0.506 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.571,-0.123,0.874 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.526,0.309,0.661 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.346,0.676 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.571,-2.67,-0.884 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.91,-0.732 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.208,-1.987,-0.714 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.969,-1.687,-0.553 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.958,-1.712,-0.546 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.457,-0.544 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.87,-1.59,-0.497 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.961,-1.586,-0.531 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.026,-0.086,0.12 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.302,0.48 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.404,0.566 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.475,0.826 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.48,0.633 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.504,0.674 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.702,0.798 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.715,0.808 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.016,-1.48,-0.701 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.195,-0.66 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.168,-0.623 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.05,-0.601 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.713,-0.984,-0.532 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.632,-0.965,-0.378 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.873,-0.403 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.922,-0.434 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.016,0.237 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.344,0.113,0.535 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.582,-0.076,0.877 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.539,0.261,0.693 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.562,0.308,0.706 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.94,-3.623,-1.073 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.474,-2.58,-0.915 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.525,-2.706,-0.924 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.252,-2.289,-0.773 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.239,-2.318,-0.76 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.194,-2.015,-0.792 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.138,-2.239,-0.653 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.242,-2.242,-0.669 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.114,-0.376,0.12 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.144,-0.311,0.016 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.25,-0.111,0.492 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.522,-0.233,0.857 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.472,0.081,0.676 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.499,0.138,0.694 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.919,-4.075,-1.959 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.298,-3.568,-1.429 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.366,-3.443,-1.552 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.002,-3.313,-1.0 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.984,-3.334,-0.983 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.925,-3.109,-1.016 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.85,-3.232,-0.923 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.989,-2.914,-1.285 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-1.025,-0.148 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.524,-1.15,-0.128 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.333,-0.969,0.1 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.363,-0.461,0.761 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.296,0.088,0.445 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.332,0.147,0.469 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.088,-17.122,-1.586 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.089,-14.995,-1.073 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.282,-15.397,-1.163 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.67,-14.714,-0.747 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.642,-14.63,-0.741 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.581,-13.954,-0.769 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.433,-14.301,-0.69 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.69,-13.577,-0.939 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-1.331,-6.945,0.109 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.714,-1.392,-7.151,0.071 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,-1.092,-5.975,0.189 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.569,-3.185,0.315 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.158,0.066,0.258 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.493,0.136,0.747 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.281,0.178,0.381 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.334,0.206,0.456 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.596,0.479,0.687 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.612,0.496,0.7 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.395,-1.901,-1.02 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.689,-0.897 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.624,-0.88 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.125,-1.511,-0.826 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.432,-0.734 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.939,-1.317,-0.639 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.892,-1.278,-0.626 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.941,-1.304,-0.678 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.188,-0.348,-0.07 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.432,0.004,0.725 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.146,0.088,0.213 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.208,-0.0,0.366 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.52,0.395,0.624 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.421,0.64 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.71,-5.874,-1.34 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.437,-5.367,-1.149 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.382,-5.287,-1.137 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.298,-5.196,-1.056 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.171,-5.048,-0.977 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.09,-4.847,-0.87 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.974,-4.644,-0.837 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.046,-4.752,-0.906 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.971,-2.951,-0.157 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.759,-2.642,-0.004 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.104,-2.134,0.59 -AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.047,-1.991,0.607 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.57,-6.236,-3.164 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.688,-5.601,-2.08 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.785,-5.587,-2.277 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.268,-5.471,-1.541 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.242,-5.379,-1.534 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.158,-5.33,-1.519 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.051,-4.881,-1.477 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.249,-4.689,-2.112 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.112,-1.946,-0.447 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.167,-2.26,-0.353 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.895,-2.089,-0.088 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.421,-0.8,-0.096 -Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.094,-1.439,0.681 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.532,-2.194,0.136 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.4,-1.897,0.22 +AutoETS,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.097,-1.154,0.533 +AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.128,-1.084,0.55 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.802,-2.419,-1.302 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.606,-2.154,-1.18 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.107,-1.153 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.487,-1.971,-1.087 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.381,-1.863,-0.992 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.786,-0.878 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.214,-1.668,-0.867 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.271,-1.728,-0.922 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.39,-0.615,-0.216 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.17,-0.271,-0.097 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.347,-0.157,0.687 +AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.074,-0.208,0.273 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.438,0.308,0.555 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.461,0.336,0.574 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.025,-2.936,-1.394 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.813,-2.641,-1.285 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.759,-2.495,-1.259 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.684,-2.448,-1.175 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-2.259,-1.095 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-2.176,-0.936 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.073,-0.945 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.452,-2.065,-1.017 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.5,-0.839,-0.259 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.263,-0.577,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.286,-0.282,0.655 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.079,-0.376,0.172 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.394,0.19,0.555 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.418,0.219,0.575 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.991,-5.118,-3.118 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.642,-4.863,-2.647 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.552,-4.721,-2.668 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.428,-4.591,-2.469 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.24,-4.339,-2.329 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.041,-3.961,-2.314 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.943,-3.911,-2.141 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.045,-3.943,-2.361 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.475,-2.196,-0.918 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.084,-1.66,-0.654 +Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.107,-1.141,0.536 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.781,-1.246,-0.445 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-0.65,-1.249,-0.234 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.051,0.019,0.095 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.87,-6.635,-3.397 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.94,-5.907,-2.31 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.043,-5.924,-2.539 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.498,-5.77,-1.756 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.47,-5.631,-1.752 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.382,-5.586,-1.731 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.27,-5.155,-1.698 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.478,-5.044,-2.324 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.225,-2.087,-0.528 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.284,-2.398,-0.445 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.997,-2.273,-0.16 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.498,-0.882,-0.172 -Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.045,-1.547,0.666 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.054,-0.105,-0.02 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.06 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.196,-5.431,-3.251 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.832,-5.185,-2.788 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.738,-4.957,-2.832 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.61,-4.86,-2.621 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.414,-4.579,-2.506 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.207,-4.157,-2.457 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.105,-4.13,-2.31 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.211,-4.217,-2.506 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.577,-2.334,-0.985 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.17,-1.781,-0.726 +Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.147,-1.224,0.52 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.854,-1.347,-0.507 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.717,-1.355,-0.28 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.064,-0.024 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv index da8cdc7fa48d5705cada0b7803cee75f18a5c93d..515da64f17b35ad4ecad2c6b6e1609866e3f91e2 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Stat. Ensemble,90.17857142857143,45.72271417010185,0.0,122.9322408277356,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.67857142857143,44.68528567939526,0.0,0.18221935274193551,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,75.0,43.8562914987522,0.0,5.3983249310847565,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,72.32142857142857,43.03907891600834,0.0,7.622120549525617,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-2,71.42857142857143,43.58823324343927,0.0,0.16078357790322584,0.0,0.0 -Drift,54.46428571428571,39.92981801659404,0.0,0.5798891508064516,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,52.67857142857143,40.48569891732045,0.0,22.892829618333334,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,51.78571428571429,39.29970062283895,0.0,1.519237516948134,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,50.89285714285714,40.2381308594362,0.0,0.3558541395777989,0.25,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,50.0,38.98358451041862,0.0,0.23928379935483873,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,45.535714285714285,39.07806454283599,0.0,0.20812267177419355,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,26.785714285714285,31.96593439462625,0.0,31.315901102580646,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,16.964285714285715,27.148269806722414,0.0,8.033898541935486,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.839285714285715,25.907009582259498,0.0,0.6308955793548388,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,0.4464285714285714,0.0,0.0,0.6923838372580645,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,86.30952380952381,38.477174892111854,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.5952380952381,36.87592043229662,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,72.61904761904762,36.307128150625054,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,70.23809523809524,35.90887063284529,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,62.5,32.38399314015735,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoTheta,55.952380952380956,32.52926187728524,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,55.35714285714286,33.893658153503736,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 +Drift,54.76190476190476,29.639454010750132,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,50.5952380952381,32.83344752168508,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,44.04761904761905,28.784283550853363,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,40.476190476190474,30.133730037212626,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,39.285714285714285,28.236498726371508,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Sundial-Base,21.428571428571434,19.709514878708077,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.69047619047619,15.593612409564518,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 175d21571990824392d7b422db84051927d16615..26bac4fb6c7604998bff6213ed6a2c881da42f08 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,90.17857142857143,45.89296124228933,0.0,0.18221935274193551,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,44.83531465181275,0.0,0.16078357790322584,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,78.57142857142857,43.917307786456576,0.0,7.622120549525617,0.25,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,77.67857142857143,44.003964088540535,0.0,122.9322408277356,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,68.75,42.51990893939105,0.0,5.3983249310847565,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,58.03571428571429,40.589714436687586,0.0,0.3558541395777989,0.25,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.46428571428571,39.72839855687115,0.0,0.23928379935483873,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,53.57142857142857,40.67928797448308,0.0,0.20812267177419355,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,44.642857142857146,37.817317026771654,0.0,22.892829618333334,0.0,0.0 -Drift,41.07142857142857,36.80178041975791,0.0,0.5798891508064516,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,36.607142857142854,35.9096442302903,0.0,1.519237516948134,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,33.92857142857143,35.64829103376008,0.0,31.315901102580646,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,13.392857142857142,22.9740045287535,0.0,8.033898541935486,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.946428571428573,22.54165568761486,0.0,0.6308955793548388,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,0.4464285714285714,0.0,0.0,0.6923838372580645,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,86.30952380952381,38.167872268859085,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.11904761904762,37.73601239308477,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,78.57142857142858,37.11985318962454,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,65.47619047619048,33.46942523050611,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoETS,62.5,29.185864234223647,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,54.761904761904766,32.77207032704751,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,31.721452512923896,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,50.000000000000014,31.399100116246935,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.0,31.818155351289157,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 +Drift,43.45238095238095,25.58270358587049,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,43.45238095238095,29.079628772649933,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoTheta,42.26190476190476,29.618968091908858,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,16.666666666666668,14.51026077809361,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.69047619047619,11.510639986489046,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index a1d7fc7dcce80d40f7d1fb85e499c95e16f90ad6..7a7abe93047aa3eccde63e89008ed80f0976daab 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,83.92857142857143,46.98885754022878,0.0,0.18221935274193551,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,77.67857142857143,45.23136019790227,0.0,7.622120549525617,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-2,72.32142857142857,45.44326979757438,0.0,0.16078357790322584,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,67.85714285714286,43.912437498598024,0.0,122.9322408277356,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.96428571428571,44.549103435681026,0.0,0.3558541395777989,0.25,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,60.71428571428571,40.41824623531372,0.0,0.23928379935483873,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,58.92857142857143,41.531861389854654,0.0,0.20812267177419355,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,55.35714285714286,42.0098616544033,0.0,5.3983249310847565,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,46.42857142857143,37.52064439642875,0.0,31.315901102580646,0.0,0.0 -Drift,45.535714285714285,35.93207741626288,0.0,0.5798891508064516,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,43.75,42.36950034572045,0.0,22.892829618333334,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.714285714285715,34.9733628053867,0.0,1.519237516948134,0.0,0.0 -Naive,21.875,27.215123726980593,0.0,0.6308955793548388,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,12.5,26.36278133837574,0.0,8.033898541935486,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,0.4464285714285714,0.0,0.0,0.6923838372580645,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.5952380952381,37.758720420324885,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,72.02380952380952,38.17771635240618,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,67.26190476190477,36.55873563764085,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.66666666666667,33.97027771884091,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.09523809523808,35.892561173334556,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoETS,58.92857142857143,34.84116701303258,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.333333333333336,34.28532719607597,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,35.73217052389407,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,49.404761904761905,30.47814442259772,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 +Drift,48.214285714285715,28.435825322795704,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,47.023809523809526,28.27751413794253,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoTheta,45.83333333333333,31.81292365948549,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.833333333333332,15.872311480991785,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,17.261904761904763,17.737236553561875,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,8.928571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv index a629964c59bbd0185cd1a4b5214a6556bc8c22ac..a887713caa7d8583136f60bb22ec5ed1cb01c858 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,88.39285714285714,51.91477926789758,0.0,0.18221935274193551,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,83.92857142857143,50.15772831185203,0.0,7.622120549525617,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-2,83.03571428571429,50.35490090839225,0.0,0.16078357790322584,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.0,49.42198208023613,0.0,0.3558541395777989,0.25,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.53571428571429,45.62669510318664,0.0,0.23928379935483873,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,66.07142857142857,47.23739479366008,0.0,0.20812267177419355,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,55.35714285714286,45.99017074595535,0.0,5.3983249310847565,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,52.67857142857143,43.99921543221276,0.0,31.315901102580646,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,51.78571428571429,44.05004183245015,0.0,122.9322408277356,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.607142857142854,40.963713207000154,0.0,22.892829618333334,0.0,0.0 -Drift,29.464285714285715,33.203638309970195,0.0,0.5798891508064516,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.0,32.478533527609585,0.0,1.519237516948134,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,18.75,29.140422145178178,0.0,8.033898541935486,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.946428571428573,24.05130462838899,0.0,0.6308955793548388,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,0.4464285714285714,0.0,0.0,0.6923838372580645,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,83.33333333333334,42.09146585989647,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,76.78571428571426,40.960757226189024,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,70.83333333333334,38.07263005492061,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.07142857142857,39.26649292250398,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.5,38.29459805551885,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,61.9047619047619,37.99224244127147,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,58.33333333333333,35.53495230927829,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,55.35714285714286,36.76571975679717,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.976190476190474,32.793225134905136,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoARIMA,46.42857142857143,34.4461529963365,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,36.90476190476191,29.146207716766202,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 +Drift,33.92857142857143,23.82864899904751,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,19.642857142857142,17.532849713917752,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +Naive,15.47619047619048,11.37195841028552,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.523809523809524,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv index b78913f73171d6f7ad792439b76901eb42cf562c..283475720c5aa1ca288473e6da03053c9c9b4363 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.019,-0.012,0.054 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.033,0.009,0.064 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.047,-0.014,0.12 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.038,-0.002,0.092 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.058,0.137 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.088,0.022,0.181 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.063,0.149 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.048,0.146 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.11,0.041,0.184 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.109,0.047,0.179 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.141,0.276 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.179,0.34 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.164,0.373 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.368,0.548 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.019,-0.057,0.012 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.025,-0.023,0.072 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.034,-0.014,0.087 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,0.016,0.067 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.417,1.0,0.09,0.025,0.15 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.053,0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.069,0.021,0.135 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.051,0.221 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.03,0.143 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.054,0.213 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.068,0.168 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.143,0.081,0.197 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.302 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.195,0.346 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.289,0.476 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.026,-0.078,0.023 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.015,-0.005,0.035 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.029,-0.058,0.124 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.019,-0.013,0.052 -TiRex,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.079,0.038,0.12 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.071,-0.023,0.187 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.089,0.044,0.131 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.074,0.022,0.145 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.093,0.024,0.173 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.092,0.035,0.162 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.131,0.263 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.18,0.305 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.156,0.35 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.447,0.355,0.542 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.034,-0.069,-0.009 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.015,-0.036,0.005 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.009,-0.026,0.043 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.015,-0.013,0.045 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.066,-0.018,0.15 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.064,-0.009,0.126 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.033,0.133 +TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.002,0.214 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.06,0.02,0.109 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.114,0.033,0.194 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.149 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.12,0.05,0.194 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.214,0.149,0.271 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.163,0.335 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.261,0.466 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.035,-0.095,0.014 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.009,-0.045,0.026 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.027,0.041 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.037,0.145 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.056,-0.023,0.124 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.037,-0.046,0.122 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.095,-0.024,0.22 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,0.004,0.099 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,0.025,0.194 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.044,0.143 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.045,0.186 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.156,0.255 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.159,0.328 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.264,0.451 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.042,-0.072,-0.016 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.015,-0.047,0.013 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.043,0.026 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.014,-0.068,0.102 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.005,-0.024,0.037 -AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.065,0.023,0.104 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.057,-0.034,0.166 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.075,0.031,0.117 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.061,0.003,0.126 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.08,0.018,0.149 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.078,0.025,0.144 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.114,0.251 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.163,0.299 -AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.148,0.338 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.343,0.531 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.049,-0.137,0.014 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.03,-0.142,0.055 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.015,-0.114,0.064 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.025,0.122 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.003,0.1 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.036,0.112 +AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.089,-0.005,0.196 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.046,-0.003,0.098 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.1,0.02,0.183 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.041,0.127 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.107,0.05,0.164 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.132,0.262 +AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.162,0.316 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.256,0.456 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.583,-0.099,-0.177,-0.025 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.071,-0.176,0.018 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.062,-0.17,0.035 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.139,0.024 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.01,-0.115,0.087 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.052,-0.03,0.115 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.043,-0.012,0.089 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.062,-0.023,0.129 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.047,0.012,0.088 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.066,0.008,0.138 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.065,0.015,0.138 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.163,0.034,0.281 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.107,0.332 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.124,0.348 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.354,0.51 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.039,-0.102,0.002 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.02,-0.055,0.013 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.005,-0.038,0.024 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.01,-0.095,0.103 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.061,0.004,0.113 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.052,-0.054,0.162 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.071,0.011,0.129 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.497,1.0,0.056,-0.007,0.123 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.015,0.154 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.033,0.13 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.099,0.262 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.162,0.282 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.146,0.325 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.354,0.523 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.158,-0.061 -Drift,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.086,-0.137,-0.04 -Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.116,-0.024 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.055,-0.13,0.029 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.065,-0.127,-0.004 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.009,-0.116,0.096 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.01,0.001,0.023 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.005,-0.061,0.051 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.016,-0.048,0.074 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.014,-0.047,0.077 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.117,0.031,0.204 -Drift,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.116,0.251 -Drift,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.106,0.28 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.313,0.491 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.096,-0.22,-0.022 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.076,-0.23,0.022 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.06,-0.199,0.033 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.045,-0.098,0.011 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.055,-0.193,0.051 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.009,-0.106,0.104 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.02,-0.1,0.116 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.004,-0.057,0.058 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.122,0.75,0.025,-0.067,0.124 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.023,-0.06,0.108 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.125,-0.025,0.229 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.183,0.046,0.304 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.197,0.073,0.328 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.335,0.483 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.175,-0.068 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.097,-0.151,-0.046 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.081,-0.132,-0.032 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.066,-0.148,0.023 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.076,-0.148,-0.011 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.01,-0.023,-0.001 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.02,-0.131,0.091 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.002,-0.089,0.077 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.108,0.048 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.065,0.133 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,-0.007,-0.103,0.063 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.107,0.186 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.032,-0.034,0.096 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.058,0.018,0.106 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.158,0.042,0.265 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.116,0.285 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.324,0.199,0.433 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.144,-0.056 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.144,0.009 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.142,0.022 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.111,0.003 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.002,-0.083,0.082 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.016,-0.076,0.043 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.005,-0.067,0.068 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.004,-0.067,0.072 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.108,0.023,0.192 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.107,0.241 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.181,0.091,0.276 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.302,0.487 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.171,-0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.08,-0.169,-0.022 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.064,-0.144,-0.003 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.049,-0.096,-0.012 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.503,-0.059,-0.14,0.007 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.005,-0.053,0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.004,-0.062,0.054 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.015,-0.045,0.071 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.102,0.059 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.041,-0.014,0.136 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.005,-0.086,0.079 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.053,-0.043,0.132 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.034,-0.034,0.1 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.011,0.123 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.076,0.236 +AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.136,0.266 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.231,0.412 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.075,-0.156,-0.022 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.154,0.032 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.038,-0.139,0.044 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.126,0.035 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.051,0.097 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.063,0.093 +AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.06,-0.052,0.172 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.016,-0.047,0.078 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.072,-0.036,0.171 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.054,-0.009,0.113 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.079,-0.006,0.156 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.177,0.068,0.264 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.217,0.128,0.295 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.256,0.422 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.284,-0.054 +Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.115,-0.273,0.002 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.105,-0.282,0.024 +Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.098,-0.244,0.005 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.041,-0.153,0.061 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.043,-0.158,0.014 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.064,-0.208,0.05 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.048,-0.227,0.071 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.012,-0.193,0.142 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.119,0.086 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.02,-0.09,0.108 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.124,-0.064,0.234 +Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.241 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.296,0.127,0.41 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.167,-0.031 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.064,-0.122,-0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.11,-0.004 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.048,-0.109,0.003 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,0.007,-0.067,0.093 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.005,-0.086,0.079 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.016,-0.085,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.045,-0.076,0.185 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.021,-0.033,0.083 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.019,-0.022,0.064 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.122,0.008,0.224 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.09,0.271 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.095,0.294 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.33,0.473 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.124,-0.225,-0.043 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.103,-0.209,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.087,-0.175,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.16,-0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.182,-0.015 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.016,-0.08,0.046 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.878,-0.025,-0.142,0.063 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.005,-0.073,0.063 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.021,-0.09,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.002,-0.046,0.031 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.103,-0.033,0.224 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.162,0.077,0.242 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.176,0.102,0.254 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.308,0.462 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.122,-0.218,-0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.101,-0.194,-0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.085,-0.169,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.16,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.149,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.014,-0.084,0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.024,-0.121,0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.004,-0.077,0.063 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.019,-0.069,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.002,-0.032,0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.105,-0.018,0.22 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.164,0.084,0.233 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.1,0.255 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.323,0.455 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.253,-0.381,-0.164 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.357,-0.151 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.335,-0.129 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.194,-0.391,-0.035 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.206,-0.355,-0.11 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.133,-0.257,-0.032 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.143,-0.298,0.024 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.121,-0.238,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.138,-0.288,-0.008 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.115,-0.289,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.117,-0.282,0.018 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.057,-0.034,0.15 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.039,-0.007,0.091 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.064,-0.008,0.143 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.095,0.228 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.109,0.293 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.226,0.415 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.271,-0.057 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.128,-0.241,-0.034 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.118,-0.241,-0.026 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.111,-0.224,-0.02 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.228,0.097 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.056,-0.153,0.042 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.077,-0.207,0.035 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.012,-0.165,0.162 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.06,-0.177,0.033 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.066,-0.055,0.176 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.082,-0.09,0.231 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.172,0.453 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.515,-0.218 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.317,-0.439,-0.22 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.428,-0.195 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.498,-0.12 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.393,-0.193 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.335,-0.131 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.224,-0.437,-0.048 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.318,-0.12 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.372,-0.099 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.194,-0.319,-0.084 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.196,-0.304,-0.092 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.071,-0.214,0.052 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.019,-0.156,0.089 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.146,0.14 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.113,0.02,0.191 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.156,0.023,0.274 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.181,0.389 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.136,-0.202,-0.073 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.175,-0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.167,-0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.09,-0.145,-0.043 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.033,-0.107,0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.112,0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.057,-0.128,0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.094,0.106 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.04,-0.1,0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.019,-0.097,0.135 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.026,-0.016,0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.036,0.202 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.107,0.235 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.301,0.198,0.389 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.245,-0.088 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.137,-0.24,-0.053 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.229,-0.048 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.196,-0.053 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.061,-0.118,-0.018 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.141,0.011 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.086,-0.185,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.02,-0.121,0.083 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.068,-0.166,0.008 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.163,0.127 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.086,0.015 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,-0.0,0.194 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.15,0.086,0.21 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.282,0.162,0.388 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.305,-0.434,-0.185 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.272,-0.372,-0.176 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.342,-0.184 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.253,-0.356,-0.153 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.187,-0.361,-0.044 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.19,-0.309,-0.083 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.215,-0.358,-0.073 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.141,-0.305,0.06 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.296,-0.104 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.127,-0.237,-0.021 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.254,-0.037 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.119,-0.24,0.0 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.017,-0.052,0.083 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.165,0.375 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.365,-0.596,-0.196 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.537,-0.185 -Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.511,-0.173 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.301,-0.534,-0.142 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.482,-0.171 -Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.389,-0.118 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.245,-0.487,-0.079 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.221,-0.38,-0.1 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.24,-0.417,-0.105 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.214,-0.341,-0.114 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.342,-0.111 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.089,-0.3,0.083 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.017,-0.091,0.05 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.049,-0.051,0.164 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.082,0.299 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.529,-0.242 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.504,-0.194 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.488,-0.189 +Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.317,-0.462,-0.193 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.398,-0.131 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.362,-0.157 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.277,-0.419,-0.147 +Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.318,-0.098 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.257,-0.415,-0.122 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.185,-0.377,-0.024 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.208,-0.307,-0.119 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.265,-0.094 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.051,-0.197,0.049 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.812,1.0,0.259,0.172,0.333 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.842,-1.212,-0.582 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.808,-1.182,-0.551 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.781,-1.13,-0.523 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.756,-1.042,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.773,-1.098,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-0.963,-0.455 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.68,-0.933,-0.504 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.647,-0.95,-0.433 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.899,-0.493 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.639,-0.86,-0.445 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.641,-0.835,-0.478 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.828,-0.208 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.6,-0.197 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.062,0.0,0.188,-0.35,-0.5,-0.207 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.156,0.021,0.261 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.907,-0.407 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.584,-0.872,-0.353 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.821,-0.358 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.837,-0.345 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.479,-0.763,-0.248 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.7,-0.301 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.73,-0.344 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.421,-0.694,-0.146 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.489,-0.709,-0.292 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.637,-0.222 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.431,-0.638,-0.246 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.393,-0.634,-0.193 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.245,-0.427,-0.09 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.185,-0.353,-0.022 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv index 0860026155123bdd6c7342be92e56624dcd1152b..8375cb48b5a40499437894864f4c74ca2af9eb12 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.019,-0.006,0.042 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.035,-0.046,0.121 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.034,-0.005,0.066 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.059,0.031,0.083 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.048,0.145 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.102,0.039,0.177 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.088,0.037,0.151 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.13,0.037,0.246 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.144,0.1,0.19 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.105,0.209 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.116,0.216 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.237,0.361 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.212,0.389 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.384,0.538 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.02,-0.044,0.006 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.007,-0.028,0.036 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.034,0.06 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.071,-0.005,0.143 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.127,0.025,0.268 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.08,0.038,0.122 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.094,0.019,0.181 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.05,0.141 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.099,0.031,0.166 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.063,0.197 +TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.169,0.055,0.293 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.053,0.185 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.209,0.334 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.213,0.382 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.467 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.007,-0.037,0.027 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.016,-0.071,0.099 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.015,-0.034,0.053 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.04,0.01,0.068 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.071,0.027,0.126 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.085,0.03,0.157 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.07,0.031,0.123 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.113,0.012,0.224 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.127,0.074,0.179 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.078,0.196 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.143,0.091,0.217 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.214,0.346 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.199,0.371 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.377,0.523 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.037,-0.138,0.044 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.017,-0.11,0.066 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.002,-0.068,0.05 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.024,-0.062,0.096 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.056,0.016,0.105 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.07,0.01,0.141 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.055,0.007,0.122 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.098,0.043,0.152 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.113,0.047,0.169 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.125,0.052,0.187 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.128,0.023,0.225 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.158,0.381 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.177,0.381 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.372,0.505 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.035,-0.071,0.005 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.015,-0.056,0.033 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.002,-0.053,0.064 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.01,-0.042,0.051 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.02,0.141 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.121,0.02,0.261 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.039,0.111 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.088,0.009,0.174 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.043,0.142 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.092,0.031,0.161 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.059,0.192 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.036,0.303 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.046,0.178 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.215,0.324 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.202,0.388 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.286,0.457 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.064,0.033 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.01,-0.053,0.04 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.026,-0.006,0.061 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.057,0.018,0.101 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.071,0.004,0.139 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.056,-0.001,0.12 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.099,0.033,0.193 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.074,0.158 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.126,0.078,0.178 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.082,0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.19,0.358 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.18,0.378 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.365,0.515 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.062,-0.091,-0.032 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.042,-0.073,-0.01 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.025,-0.106,0.058 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.027,-0.065,0.006 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.055,-0.011,0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.112,0.011,0.257 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.065,0.013,0.121 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.079,0.03,0.146 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.078,0.024,0.131 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.023,0.143 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.113,0.048,0.171 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.061,0.279 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.07,0.148 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.191,0.329 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.206,0.375 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.288,0.452 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.076,-0.167,0.005 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.164,0.019 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.133,0.011 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.06,-0.086,0.229 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.01,-0.075,0.075 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.06,0.101 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.024,-0.031,0.081 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.103,0.146 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.062,0.022,0.109 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.106,-0.014,0.216 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.055,-0.028,0.135 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.222,0.115,0.321 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.157,0.335 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.216,0.435 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.367,-0.025 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.137,-0.354,-0.02 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.126,-0.345,-0.012 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.064,-0.297,0.08 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.032,-0.021,0.089 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.046,-0.015,0.11 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.031,-0.021,0.092 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.076,-0.024,0.189 -AutoETS,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.09,0.045,0.133 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.103,0.052,0.155 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.063,0.167 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.18,0.327 -AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.348 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.344,0.503 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.17,-0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.077,-0.144,-0.028 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.059,-0.118,-0.016 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.061,-0.113,-0.018 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.034,-0.098,0.02 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.053,-0.259,0.072 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.037,-0.271,0.112 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.039,-0.251,0.086 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.032,-0.263,0.102 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.001,-0.211,0.131 +AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.048,-0.2,0.237 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.006,-0.228,0.119 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.002,0.286 +AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.2,0.001,0.337 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.084,0.43 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.087,-0.139,-0.039 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.124,-0.041 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.137,-0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.01,-0.081,0.07 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.051,-0.077,0.205 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.014,-0.031,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,-0.002,-0.036,0.03 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.045,-0.03,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.06,0.011,0.109 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.073,0.018,0.126 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.077,-0.011,0.152 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.143,0.31 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.148,0.319 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.349,0.463 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.114,-0.215,-0.041 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.093,-0.186,-0.031 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.075,-0.165,-0.01 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.076,-0.162,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.049,-0.124,0.015 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.014,-0.072,0.03 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.375,0.875,-0.016,-0.06,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.031,-0.089,0.127 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.046,-0.008,0.096 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.06,0.003,0.12 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.063,-0.05,0.167 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.134,0.293 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.159,0.291 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.33,0.457 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.096,-0.178,-0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.14,-0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.058,-0.139,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.059,-0.136,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.032,-0.101,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,0.002,-0.03,0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.125,0.625,0.016,-0.011,0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.046,-0.052,0.132 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.061,-0.002,0.119 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.074,0.004,0.142 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.078,-0.02,0.173 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.142,0.301 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.16,0.305 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.345,0.46 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.149,-0.326,-0.039 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.127,-0.289,-0.013 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.109,-0.179,-0.045 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.11,-0.239,-0.034 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.082,-0.233,0.023 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.047,-0.134,0.029 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.032,-0.145,0.081 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.048,-0.152,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.015,-0.066,0.089 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.014,-0.034,0.072 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.059,0.098 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.014,0.127 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.097,-0.046,0.255 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.045,-0.043,0.116 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.15,0.272 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.136,0.34 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.224,0.407 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.104,-0.221,-0.019 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.21,-0.009 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.086,-0.171,-0.031 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.026,-0.112,0.056 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.036,-0.126,0.213 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.016,-0.097,0.062 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.016,-0.111,0.118 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.03,-0.098,0.134 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.034,-0.126,0.133 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.193,0.04,0.327 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.197,0.071,0.331 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.309,0.456 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.168,-0.235,-0.111 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.146,-0.218,-0.08 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.127,-0.203,-0.049 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.129,-0.187,-0.08 -Drift,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.099,-0.153,-0.047 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.064,-0.122,-0.011 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.049,-0.107,0.008 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.065,-0.135,0.002 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.016,-0.134,0.1 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.08,0.069 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.005,-0.101,0.09 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.037,-0.064,0.125 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.049,0.224 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.03,-0.058,0.107 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.201,0.09,0.294 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.322 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.242,0.396 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.164,-0.052 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.165,-0.044 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.084,-0.151,-0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.025,-0.088,0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.037,-0.094,0.201 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.014,-0.077,0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.074,0.074 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.093,0.108 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.001,0.09 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.084,-0.028,0.199 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.031,-0.044,0.102 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.109,0.273 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.158,0.296 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.318,0.219,0.402 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.109,-0.2,-0.031 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.102,-0.192,-0.032 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.091,-0.167,-0.023 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.171,0.093 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.031,-0.114,0.208 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.02,-0.109,0.056 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.005,-0.099,0.092 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.121,0.085 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.033,-0.089,0.147 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.078,-0.057,0.251 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.025,-0.038,0.091 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.198,0.122,0.263 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.225,0.109,0.337 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.229,0.401 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.245,-0.067 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.139,-0.237,-0.063 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.206,-0.05 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.066,-0.123,-0.022 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.002,-0.151,0.175 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.145,0.014 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.039,-0.142,0.06 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.04,-0.099,0.001 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.034,-0.173,0.082 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.047,-0.076,0.17 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.087,0.069 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,0.072,0.253 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.199,0.12,0.272 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.291,0.176,0.391 +Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.204,-0.414,-0.058 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.435,-0.037 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.386,-0.065 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.119,-0.276,0.014 +Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.051,-0.31,0.166 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.107,-0.342,0.044 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.09,-0.289,0.047 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.091,-0.248,0.027 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.085,-0.334,0.054 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.049,-0.204,0.07 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.014,-0.006,0.032 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.018,-0.059,0.091 -Drift,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.113,0.263 -Drift,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.101,0.272 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.287,0.448 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.185,-0.264,-0.117 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.244,-0.085 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.143,-0.23,-0.055 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.145,-0.217,-0.085 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.115,-0.183,-0.055 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.079,-0.144,-0.018 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.063,-0.137,-0.003 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.08,-0.165,-0.004 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.031,-0.154,0.09 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.014,-0.033,0.006 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,0.917,-0.057,-0.232,0.028 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,-0.097,0.26 +Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.082,0.234 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.256,0.054,0.378 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.227,-0.056 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.13,-0.217,-0.048 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.119,-0.173,-0.075 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.058,-0.156,0.027 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.006,-0.136,0.186 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.047,-0.131,0.041 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.031,-0.12,0.055 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.032,-0.114,0.042 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.026,-0.101,0.037 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.075,0.08 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.083,0.5,0.054,-0.029,0.188 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.004,-0.075,0.077 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.104,0.248 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.086,0.262 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.28,0.441 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.189,-0.275,-0.131 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.167,-0.278,-0.1 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.147,-0.29,-0.024 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.229,-0.09 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.201,-0.067 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.083,-0.18,0.011 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.068,-0.2,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.085,-0.21,0.019 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.035,-0.153,0.112 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.018,-0.1,0.055 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.004,-0.084,0.07 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.165,0.071,0.255 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.169,0.038,0.288 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.356,0.248,0.457 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.565,-0.31 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.396,-0.53,-0.272 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.614,-0.188 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.557,-0.235 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.485,-0.22 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.449,-0.167 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.278,-0.415,-0.155 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.43,-0.165 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.239,-0.486,-0.042 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.356,-0.128 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.202,-0.33,-0.116 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.197,-0.343,-0.077 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.177,0.099,0.254 +AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.205,0.128,0.291 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.216,0.375 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.501,-0.264 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.48,-0.274 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.36,-0.49,-0.236 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.285,-0.472,-0.13 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.207,-0.401,-0.002 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.272,-0.374,-0.176 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.252,-0.417,-0.099 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.376,-0.123 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.246,-0.357,-0.139 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.339,-0.077 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.351,0.088 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.215,-0.341,-0.11 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.006,-0.061,0.078 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.127,0.332 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.432,-0.636,-0.269 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.589,-0.248 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.381,-0.615,-0.215 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.608,-0.219 -Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.535,-0.206 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.469,-0.174 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.41,-0.189 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.438,-0.191 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.246,-0.495,-0.077 -Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.226,-0.374,-0.113 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.355,-0.095 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.204,-0.405,-0.039 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.006,-0.085,0.057 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.034,-0.089,0.177 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.145,0.018,0.25 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.619,-0.27 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.633,-0.253 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.6,-0.259 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.503,-0.186 +Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.25,-0.508,-0.001 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.316,-0.515,-0.157 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.296,-0.475,-0.146 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.42,-0.188 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.29,-0.508,-0.122 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.248,-0.374,-0.137 +Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.089 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.41,-0.146 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.035,-0.215,0.082 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.812,1.0,0.225,0.143,0.295 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.848,-1.165,-0.623 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.096,-0.604 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.783,-1.021,-0.592 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.786,-1.062,-0.574 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.013,-0.523 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.683,-0.861,-0.535 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.659,-0.843,-0.492 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-0.851,-0.528 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.837,-0.447 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.582,-0.812,-0.403 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.788,-0.39 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.554,-0.842,-0.33 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.498,-0.146 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.062,0.0,0.188,-0.291,-0.419,-0.167 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.115,-0.055,0.229 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.877,-0.392 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.842,-0.401 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.824,-0.404 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.503,-0.771,-0.275 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.755,-0.091 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.487,-0.686,-0.288 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.465,-0.656,-0.319 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.467,-0.673,-0.28 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.668,-0.296 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.41,-0.643,-0.214 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.344,-0.607,-0.057 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.599,-0.275 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.17,-0.333,-0.019 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.13,-0.297,0.052 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv index aa3c8e094b98af8e6902538f85b8b08da448d810..5a672381746bc44ade14788e1e3feab93b0199db 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.032,-0.035,0.102 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.028,-0.002,0.062 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.055,0.022,0.089 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.044,0.002,0.085 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.11,0.011,0.236 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.093,0.02,0.179 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.086,0.033,0.143 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.152,0.09,0.215 -TiRex,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.173,0.077,0.276 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.08,0.008,0.148 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.185,0.087,0.288 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.107,0.432 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.369 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.345,0.563 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.033,-0.113,0.034 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.004,-0.072,0.077 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.024,-0.024,0.073 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.012,-0.061,0.076 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.081,0.012,0.171 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.938,0.063,0.018,0.114 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.056,0.013,0.106 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.123,0.023,0.214 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.145,0.054,0.226 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.05,-0.066,0.128 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.158,0.067,0.238 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.089,0.39 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.159,0.335 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.354,0.533 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.029,-0.066,0.002 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.004,-0.083,0.067 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.027,-0.01,0.058 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.016,-0.035,0.069 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.084,-0.019,0.205 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.067,-0.01,0.143 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.059,0.019,0.105 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.127,0.033,0.216 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.148,0.041,0.25 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.053,-0.028,0.123 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.161,0.051,0.261 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.25,0.076,0.41 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.161,0.347 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.454,0.32,0.553 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.058,-0.097,-0.022 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.024,-0.078,0.024 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.028,-0.062,0.01 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.118,0.073 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.019,-0.026,0.055 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.013,0.132 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.066 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.022,0.113 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.053,-0.079,0.157 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.032,-0.075,0.116 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.043,0.176 +TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.13,-0.069,0.279 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.132,0.04,0.235 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.087,-0.092,0.23 +TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.26,0.135,0.394 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.243,0.154,0.322 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.378,0.252,0.503 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.079,0.105 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.011,-0.05,0.027 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.059,-0.022,0.18 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.041,-0.016,0.119 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.033,-0.001,0.078 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.102,0.013,0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.125,0.025,0.224 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.027,-0.047,0.081 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.137,0.03,0.238 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.043,0.39 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.137,0.328 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.32,0.532 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.046,-0.093,-0.002 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.012,-0.082,0.058 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.016,-0.074,0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.011,-0.028,0.048 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.026,-0.052,0.124 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.026,0.153 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.036,-0.044,0.138 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.051,0.006,0.104 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.059,-0.02,0.135 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.038,-0.015,0.077 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.111,0.016,0.202 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.017,0.263 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.138,0.035,0.235 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.006,0.186 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.136,0.387 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.339 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.284,0.478 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.019,-0.059,0.025 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.142,0.05 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.05,0.132 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.01,-0.025,0.05 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.04,0.085 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.035,-0.112,0.148 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.013,-0.106,0.11 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.087,0.014,0.175 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.114,-0.101,0.291 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.115,0.018,0.219 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.07,-0.127,0.214 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.246,0.102,0.391 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.153,0.304 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.366,0.237,0.489 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.061,-0.152,0.013 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.025 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.041,-0.152,0.047 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.14,0.051 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.013,-0.1,0.063 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.164,0.134 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.14,0.072 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.092 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.077,-0.097,0.197 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.079,0.026,0.142 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.032,-0.139,0.166 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.104,0.331 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.07,0.294 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.463 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.03,-0.071,0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.037,-0.161,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.011,-0.052,0.025 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.054,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.188,0.812,0.069,-0.02,0.209 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.052,-0.011,0.149 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.044,-0.025,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.112,0.02,0.209 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.134,0.026,0.246 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.038,-0.014,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.147,0.036,0.262 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.238,0.051,0.413 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.145,0.343 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.329,0.541 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.124,-0.309,-0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.088,-0.207,-0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.092,-0.259,0.019 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.062,-0.219,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.188,0.812,-0.074,-0.264,0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.375,0.875,-0.019,-0.077,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.027,-0.126,0.045 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.046,-0.136,0.187 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.07,0.008,0.14 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,-0.034,-0.273,0.081 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.084,0.018,0.161 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.181,0.051,0.286 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.102,0.276 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.311,0.486 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.103,-0.218,-0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.062,0.5,-0.068,-0.128,-0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.072,-0.167,0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.042,-0.135,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.054,-0.175,0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.125,0.625,0.019,-0.013,0.071 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.008,-0.053,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.064,-0.065,0.18 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.087,0.018,0.151 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.375,1.0,-0.015,-0.186,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.101,0.03,0.172 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.197,0.044,0.318 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.206,0.126,0.284 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.315,0.497 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.094,-0.167,-0.034 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.059,-0.119,-0.013 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.063,-0.117,-0.019 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.034,-0.085,0.001 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.046,-0.134,0.025 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.027,-0.047,0.112 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.008,-0.038,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.016,-0.058,0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.024,-0.121,0.142 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.002,-0.108,0.082 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.078,0.002,0.167 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.104,-0.116,0.272 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.106,0.001,0.216 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.138,0.209 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.238,0.088,0.384 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.142,0.296 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.235,0.479 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.127,0.022 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.115,-0.006 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.093,0.039 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.013,-0.067,0.091 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.016,-0.095,0.055 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.072,-0.04,0.176 -AutoETS,Drift,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.095,0.01,0.173 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,0.875,-0.006,-0.136,0.078 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.108,0.02,0.19 -AutoETS,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.203,0.028,0.345 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.12,0.291 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.301,0.513 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.179,-0.274,-0.099 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.141,-0.272,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.145,-0.276,-0.034 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.114,-0.241,-0.013 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.127,-0.264,-0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.049,-0.23,0.12 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.069,-0.22,0.061 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.077,-0.214,0.038 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.008,-0.094,0.112 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.014,-0.108,0.063 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.063,-0.003,0.135 +AutoETS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.09,-0.071,0.231 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.092,0.012,0.167 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.044,-0.086,0.148 +AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.099,0.346 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.127,0.279 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.248,0.455 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.056,-0.187,0.073 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.063,-0.156,0.019 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.174,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.155,0.141 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.025,-0.165,0.108 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.009,-0.126,0.086 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.025,-0.108,0.146 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.084,-0.235,0.05 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.039,-0.084,0.157 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.142,-0.026,0.327 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.152,0.046,0.252 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.244,0.48 -Drift,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.209,-0.38,-0.083 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.17,-0.292,-0.057 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.174,-0.333,-0.043 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.142,-0.289,-0.025 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.155,-0.326,-0.027 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.075,-0.163,-0.008 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.096,-0.178,-0.018 -Drift,AutoETS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.105,-0.21,-0.01 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.025,-0.172,0.098 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,1.0,-0.112,-0.342,0.039 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.015,0.005,0.026 -Drift,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.12,0.021,0.215 -Drift,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.076,0.181 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.283,0.426 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.087,-0.173,-0.008 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.052,-0.147,0.062 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.056,-0.14,0.028 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.028,-0.089,0.045 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.039,-0.086,0.014 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,0.033,-0.089,0.215 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.625,0.014,-0.083,0.157 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.375,0.125,0.75,0.006,-0.085,0.12 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.078,-0.052,0.19 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.375,0.0,0.75,0.1,-0.041,0.255 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.023,-0.135,0.081 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.055,-0.107,0.185 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.234 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.084,-0.089,0.226 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.036,-0.065,0.138 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.073,0.351 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.308 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.242,0.437 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.033,-0.131,0.07 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.04,-0.084,0.014 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.013,-0.124,0.096 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.027,-0.077,0.123 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.003,-0.089,0.098 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.014,-0.067,0.097 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.022,-0.089,0.119 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.375,0.0,0.75,0.114,-0.035,0.267 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.208,-0.015,0.416 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.217,0.079,0.347 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.289,0.534 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.227,-0.404,-0.095 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.187,-0.312,-0.072 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.192,-0.354,-0.054 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.159,-0.312,-0.031 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.173,-0.354,-0.037 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.091,-0.192,-0.019 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.112,-0.207,-0.031 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.121,-0.234,-0.021 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.041,-0.186,0.077 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.015,-0.027,-0.005 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.25,1.0,-0.128,-0.364,0.034 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.076,-0.037,0.184 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.102,-0.037,0.249 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.104,-0.025,0.23 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.057,-0.064,0.19 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.236,0.084,0.383 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.084,0.33 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.24,0.471 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.213,-0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.125,-0.253,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.096,-0.213,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.101,-0.006 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.084,-0.2,-0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.067,-0.156,0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.058,-0.227,0.097 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.082,-0.226,0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.15,0.149 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.031,-0.022,0.094 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.02,-0.201,0.115 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.174,0.068,0.284 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.026,0.239 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.305,0.17,0.432 +Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.15,-0.388,0.065 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.356,-0.017 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.128,-0.41,0.092 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.084,-0.246,0.088 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.116,-0.374,0.104 +Drift,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.098,-0.3,0.066 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.089,-0.305,0.063 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.114,-0.332,0.036 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.175,0.13 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.002,-0.146,0.163 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.05,-0.184,0.016 +Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.045,0.251 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.13,-0.09,0.296 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.11,0.391 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.152,-0.307,-0.042 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.16,-0.308,-0.037 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.131,-0.281,-0.018 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.086,-0.166,-0.027 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.119,-0.275,-0.001 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.101,-0.201,-0.012 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.091,-0.291,0.082 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.116,-0.299,0.024 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.032,-0.104,0.022 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.002,-0.195,0.127 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.052,-0.228,0.084 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.147,0.051,0.248 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.128,-0.003,0.227 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.283,0.152,0.405 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.096,-0.299,0.084 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.229,-0.006 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.075,-0.273,0.113 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.033,-0.199,0.122 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.263,0.122 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.046,-0.174,0.079 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.038,-0.16,0.061 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.061,-0.235,0.061 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.019,-0.13,0.167 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.047,-0.016,0.156 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.049,-0.092,0.186 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.107,0.014,0.202 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.117,0.063,0.17 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.272,0.417 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.76,-0.12 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.329,-0.641,-0.097 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.334,-0.695,-0.082 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.64,-0.045 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.313,-0.702,-0.054 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.222,-0.402,-0.054 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.245,-0.467,-0.046 -Naive,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.255,-0.526,-0.029 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.165,-0.487,0.025 -Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.136,-0.273,-0.021 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.263,-0.713,0.014 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.119,-0.253,-0.014 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.189,0.084,0.29 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.171,0.057,0.303 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.237,0.391 +Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.352,-0.649,-0.156 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.631,-0.157 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.326,-0.642,-0.113 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.274,-0.494,-0.116 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.312,-0.623,-0.097 +Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.291,-0.53,-0.11 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.54,-0.079 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.5,-0.309,-0.62,-0.092 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.21,-0.396,-0.073 +Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.335,-0.047 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.173,-0.33,-0.053 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.234,-0.408,-0.092 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.012,-0.134,0.122 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.812,1.0,0.272,0.17,0.364 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.584,-0.225 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.504,-0.189 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.531,-0.191 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.488,-0.158 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.521,-0.17 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.382,-0.113 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.259,-0.397,-0.144 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.411,-0.137 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.179,-0.338,-0.049 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.22,-0.082 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.278,-0.532,-0.086 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.132,-0.204,-0.067 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.012,-0.139,0.118 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.218,0.11 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.159,0.001,0.281 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.476,-0.182 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.513,-0.171 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.436,-0.181 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.246,-0.416,-0.075 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.421,-0.165 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.262,-0.386,-0.145 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.445,-0.097 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.493,-0.091 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.315,-0.026 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.149,-0.421,0.082 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.147,-0.294,0.002 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.206,-0.435,-0.061 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.123,0.179 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.155,0.342 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.886,-1.288,-0.526 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.143,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.833,-1.236,-0.47 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.783,-1.139,-0.471 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.803,-1.18,-0.49 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.678,-0.946,-0.452 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.71,-0.99,-0.46 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.724,-1.054,-0.43 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.922,-0.324 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.741,-0.394 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.735,-1.146,-0.406 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.715,-0.374 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.062,0.0,0.188,-0.374,-0.573,-0.205 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.52,-0.183 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.177,0.057,0.284 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.607,-1.014,-0.337 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.915,-0.396 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.576,-0.957,-0.311 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.514,-0.863,-0.255 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.92,-0.308 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.834,-0.33 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.522,-0.775,-0.319 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.891,-0.315 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.438,-0.76,-0.205 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.397,-0.643,-0.124 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.394,-0.681,-0.179 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.467,-0.643,-0.311 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.189,-0.391,-0.001 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.216,-0.396,-0.06 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv index 889c5eaa08ecccc2d0bb2fe0b5882595f4c167ca..aacab92ade6d42a196177723655f8cd48184593f 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.035,-0.022,0.094 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.75,0.031,-0.002,0.07 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.049,0.013,0.083 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.116,0.02,0.244 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.089,0.026,0.167 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.11,0.065,0.159 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.085,0.196 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.083,0.218 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.185,0.084,0.309 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.38 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.183,0.394 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.218,0.415 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.225,0.504 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.402,0.614 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.037,-0.103,0.021 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.004,-0.062,0.064 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.015,-0.043,0.068 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.083,0.014,0.179 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.688,1.0,0.055,0.021,0.096 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.077,0.039,0.119 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.11,0.034,0.182 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.109,0.047,0.177 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.156,0.024,0.276 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.184,0.323 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.183,0.338 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.202,0.378 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.222,0.462 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.406,0.578 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.875,-0.032,-0.075,0.002 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.004,-0.068,0.058 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.019,-0.029,0.058 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.065,0.009,0.127 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.047,0.005,0.084 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.062,-0.038,0.149 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.066,-0.055,0.161 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.102,0.047,0.167 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.017,0.145 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.138,0.051,0.236 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.117,-0.008,0.227 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.183,0.017,0.322 +TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.039,0.386 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.205,0.38 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.221,0.471 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.287,0.546 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.02,-0.062,0.028 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.018,-0.03,0.067 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.25,0.878,0.087,-0.005,0.199 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.497,1.0,0.059,-0.007,0.121 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.046,0.113 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.113,0.037,0.187 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.046,0.202 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.159,0.034,0.29 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.158,0.352 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.156,0.367 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.201,0.39 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.203,0.477 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.375,0.601 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.052,-0.09,-0.013 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.015,-0.073,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.019,-0.072,0.029 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.047,-0.03,0.132 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.028,-0.008,0.061 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.043,-0.066,0.134 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.048,-0.082,0.141 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.084,0.014,0.167 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.004,0.112 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.122,0.031,0.22 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.099,-0.035,0.22 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.167,-0.006,0.299 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.01,0.391 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.209,0.358 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.471 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.41,0.281,0.527 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.145,-0.009 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.049,-0.152,0.029 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.115,0.049 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.004,-0.135,0.114 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.133,0.109 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.039,0.004,0.074 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.071,0.095 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.079,0.025,0.148 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.055,-0.086,0.182 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.046,0.264 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.187,-0.005,0.316 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.249,0.132,0.337 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.415 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.381,0.238,0.505 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.049,-0.092,-0.005 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.029,-0.064,0.008 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.052,0.103 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.188,0.812,0.07,-0.014,0.203 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,0.041,-0.015,0.124 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.064,0.002,0.121 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.097,0.023,0.179 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.096,0.036,0.166 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.143,0.048,0.256 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.151,0.344 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.15,0.356 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.181,0.384 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.193,0.475 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.383,0.589 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.131,-0.323,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.091,-0.217,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.375,0.122,0.75,-0.095,-0.249,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.188,0.812,-0.075,-0.255,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.312,0.875,-0.031,-0.102,0.01 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.007,-0.119,0.071 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.029,-0.132,0.151 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.028,-0.154,0.148 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.079,-0.192,0.249 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.186,0.129,0.249 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.128,0.265 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.156,0.313 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.195,0.368 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.362,0.537 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.097,-0.201,-0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.312,-0.059,-0.106,-0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.503,-0.063,-0.138,0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.688,-0.043,-0.142,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.125,0.688,0.03,-0.01,0.093 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.023,-0.025,0.07 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.058,-0.035,0.148 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.057,-0.05,0.151 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.106,-0.078,0.249 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.149,0.272 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.145,0.293 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.176,0.33 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.192,0.412 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.472,0.376,0.553 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.189,-0.069 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.084,-0.135,-0.041 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.127,-0.048 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.068,-0.138,-0.002 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.007,-0.076,0.106 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.024,-0.076,0.024 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.0,0.75,0.036,-0.051,0.126 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.035,-0.041,0.122 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.085,-0.071,0.226 -AutoETS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.096,0.278 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.096,0.293 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.127,0.331 -AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.138,0.422 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.335,0.555 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.243,-0.093 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.124,-0.223,-0.035 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.128,-0.23,-0.039 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.107,-0.217,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.03,-0.178,0.117 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.061,-0.173,0.034 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.625,0.25,1.0,-0.037,-0.144,0.049 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.016,-0.106,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.12,0.113 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.015,0.143 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,-0.045,0.104 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.096,-0.002,0.206 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.074,-0.073,0.186 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.143,-0.049,0.286 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.203,-0.028,0.375 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.182,0.346 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.315,0.161,0.458 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.393,0.257,0.517 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.066,-0.175,0.037 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.045,-0.154,0.062 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.004,-0.129,0.119 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.016,-0.134,0.096 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.001,-0.128,0.13 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.051,-0.107,0.222 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.162,0.046,0.279 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.171,0.05,0.292 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.119,0.306 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.263,0.122,0.415 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.317,0.549 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.164,-0.278,-0.091 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.123,-0.214,-0.049 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.253,-0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.106,-0.199,-0.037 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.174,0.133 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.06,-0.178,0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.036,-0.14,0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.001,-0.149,0.113 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.084,0.091 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.043,-0.082,0.159 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.024,-0.064,0.095 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.207 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.059,-0.057,0.177 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.129,0.023,0.236 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.19,0.03,0.353 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.154,0.347 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.18,0.427 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.282,0.484 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.192,0.052 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.05,-0.164,0.076 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.123,0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.127,0.107 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.1,0.077 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.052,-0.027,0.119 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.162,0.069,0.266 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.071,0.278 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.21,0.053,0.333 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.096,0.424 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.321,0.534 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.228,-0.446,-0.091 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.184,-0.38,-0.024 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.189,-0.408,-0.035 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.167,-0.345,-0.05 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.086,-0.332,0.161 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.119,-0.331,0.073 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.093,-0.293,0.067 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.054,-0.285,0.097 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.055,-0.135,0.027 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.038,-0.083,0.155 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.068,0.095 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.077,-0.064,0.201 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.054,-0.0,0.099 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.037,0.224 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.186,0.041,0.338 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.248,0.115,0.362 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.159,0.433 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.283,0.482 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.113,-0.2,-0.049 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.092,-0.2,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.041,-0.079,-0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.061,-0.167,0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.045,-0.189,0.075 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.184,0.077 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.019,-0.125,0.057 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.041,-0.012,0.105 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.017,-0.147,0.157 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.09,-0.083,0.223 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.154,-0.033,0.28 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.093,0.302 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.273,0.167,0.374 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.355,0.212,0.48 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.169,-0.018 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.126,-0.004 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.105,0.066 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.116,0.043 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.025,-0.104,0.06 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.105,0.064 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.06,0.111 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.059,-0.034,0.15 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.035,-0.082,0.151 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.108,-0.026,0.227 +AutoETS,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,-0.016,0.334 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322 +AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.287,0.148,0.417 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.368,0.243,0.486 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.161,-0.309,-0.053 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.138,-0.282,-0.032 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.085,-0.173,-0.026 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.107,-0.259,0.002 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.089,-0.262,0.063 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.084,-0.251,0.061 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.043,-0.118,0.012 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.063,-0.177,0.033 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.025,-0.226,0.141 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.119,0.187 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.118,-0.083,0.257 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.185,0.061,0.279 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.242,0.127,0.337 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.328,0.183,0.456 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.132,-0.294,0.008 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.282,0.034 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.222,0.079 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.079,-0.228,0.068 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.062,-0.215,0.054 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.057,-0.109,0.0 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.017,-0.187,0.128 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.178,0.076 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.025,-0.164,0.185 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.625,0.25,1.0,0.116,-0.034,0.285 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.125,0.875,0.126,-0.03,0.293 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.167,-0.05,0.347 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.223,-0.005,0.436 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.275,0.532 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.613,-0.226 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.478,-0.226 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.543,-0.187 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.525,-0.178 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.331,-0.147 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.374,-0.175 -Drift,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.237,-0.386,-0.106 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.193,-0.387,-0.048 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.194,-0.363,-0.075 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.0,0.75,-0.131,-0.398,0.033 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.011,-0.011,0.031 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.057,-0.048,0.135 -Drift,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.121,0.02,0.215 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.256,0.392 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.65,-0.223 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.511,-0.224 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.36,-0.58,-0.184 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.335,-0.554,-0.176 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.361,-0.147 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.28,-0.415,-0.169 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.414,-0.107 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.206,-0.411,-0.053 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.207,-0.384,-0.076 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.125,0.875,-0.144,-0.414,0.029 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.011,-0.032,0.011 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.075,-0.043,0.214 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.139,-0.024,0.304 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.205,0.026,0.344 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.26,0.092,0.423 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.225,0.467 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.224,-0.476,-0.017 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.426,0.006 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.144,-0.358,0.044 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.167,-0.401,0.046 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.148,-0.309,-0.024 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.289,-0.038 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.099,-0.286,0.076 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.293,0.025 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.054,-0.229,0.106 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.081,-0.273,0.041 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.375,1.0,0.047,-0.056,0.12 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.875,0.625,1.0,0.111,0.028,0.201 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.26,0.38 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.71,-0.278 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.608,-0.252 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.64,-0.251 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.623,-0.221 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.456,-0.184 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.492,-0.213 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.495,-0.146 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.265,-0.441,-0.135 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.266,-0.499,-0.056 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.2,-0.532,0.047 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.061,-0.156,0.046 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.049,-0.136,0.053 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.07,-0.028,0.226 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.141,0.015,0.293 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.318 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.222,0.357 +Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.315,-0.628,-0.04 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.29,-0.643,-0.01 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.23,-0.461,0.005 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.254,-0.6,0.027 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.234,-0.546,-0.031 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.228,-0.511,-0.043 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.182,-0.389,0.032 +Drift,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.5,0.015 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.133,-0.347,0.076 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.162,-0.437,0.023 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.075,-0.292,0.027 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.076,-0.217,0.284 +Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.141,0.034,0.242 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.238,0.002,0.366 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.424,-0.613,-0.258 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.557,-0.264 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.332,-0.509,-0.153 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.528,-0.222 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.532,-0.181 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.33,-0.567,-0.13 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.279,-0.433,-0.103 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.474,-0.159 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.227,-0.387,-0.066 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.258,-0.524,-0.027 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.164,-0.415,-0.015 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.083,-0.397,0.178 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.625,0.25,0.875,0.067,-0.024,0.165 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.193,0.391 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-1.015,-0.29 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.524,-0.858,-0.286 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.912,-0.255 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.502,-0.904,-0.239 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.581,-0.242 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.439,-0.701,-0.237 -Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.729,-0.161 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.356,-0.71,-0.139 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.736,-0.106 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.625,-0.286,-0.774,0.005 -Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.137,-0.274,-0.02 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.125,0.0,0.375,-0.125,-0.251,-0.028 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.375,0.125,0.75,-0.072,-0.198,0.024 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.07,-0.096,0.23 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.175,0.01,0.298 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.889,-0.283 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.501,-0.89,-0.236 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.431,-0.708,-0.233 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.459,-0.846,-0.192 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.746,-0.219 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.765,-0.19 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.375,-0.598,-0.2 +Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.402,-0.715,-0.174 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.319,-0.508,-0.145 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.352,-0.732,-0.102 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.251,-0.466,-0.096 +Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.164,-0.32,-0.035 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.075,-0.298,0.087 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.812,1.0,0.241,0.149,0.32 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.08,-1.59,-0.671 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.006,-1.368,-0.685 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.014,-1.503,-0.6 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.977,-1.43,-0.62 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.161,-0.569 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.895,-1.235,-0.603 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.852,-1.246,-0.504 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.786,-1.217,-0.464 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.148,-0.473 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.694,-1.137,-0.379 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.497,-0.645,-0.344 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.612,-0.352 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.411,-0.643,-0.239 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.062,0.0,0.188,-0.317,-0.47,-0.175 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.114,-0.095,0.248 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.204,-0.402 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.694,-1.116,-0.391 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.615,-1.022,-0.312 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.647,-1.071,-0.346 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.938,-0.393 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.931,-0.394 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.551,-0.924,-0.269 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.581,-0.947,-0.321 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.488,-0.838,-0.223 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.875,-0.291 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.411,-0.556,-0.286 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.313,-0.578,-0.002 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.213,-0.424,-0.01 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.128,-0.33,0.087 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 22b149405ce01ce39fe66ac606bbad1f43541686..ea2ddae1bb0dc0d6ab85e07c32db8bb6975225dd 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,90.47619047619048,22.491484624334955,0.0,0.26784322794871795,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,79.76190476190476,21.288270041647138,0.0,0.26115691663789,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,72.61904761904762,20.340171911148776,0.0,0.7936244461538462,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.85714285714286,19.296786950554633,0.0,52.37668190762821,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,19.57366854063398,0.0,24.157588808205134,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,56.54761904761904,16.7501542380026,0.0,0.20589281349358973,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.35714285714285,16.732852664181774,0.0,1.7026751536335043,0.8333333333333334,0.0 -Sundial-Base,51.1904761904762,12.142829552531376,0.0,7.8157010582409505,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.04761904761906,6.0859849264475745,0.0,28.261405801640862,0.0,33.33333333333333 -AutoTheta,39.28571428571429,5.560116179069641,0.0,1.7578207659544929,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,39.28571428571429,3.511020388587349,0.0,13.813905255526317,0.0,33.33333333333333 -Seasonal Naive,29.166666666666668,0.0,0.0,0.1546446881304136,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,28.57142857142857,-18.72817524266548,0.0,4.8025043967024885,0.0,0.0 -Drift,17.857142857142854,-30.331940880835084,0.0,0.14687456285464573,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.690476190476192,-23.849674243208028,0.0,0.15513795943548064,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,95.91836734693878,31.297845857459595,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,88.77551020408163,30.089978096846835,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,86.73469387755102,28.869849444319463,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.3061224489796,24.574044447615496,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,64.28571428571429,23.393412727785645,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,25.54731526015246,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,5.872754086951614,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 +AutoARIMA,31.63265306122449,2.7206673781491886,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 +AutoTheta,28.57142857142857,2.2840445726052927,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,26.53061224489796,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-16.790213190879342,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.183673469387754,-40.74006375897996,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.0204081632653061,-55.8521959090168,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv index d4784c1f26469cfdfd36bbc0f80cec9a04810450..cceb194f5d2e6d057c843289f20af746e68afd41 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,90.47619047619048,35.58787936204444,0.0,0.26784322794871795,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.14285714285714,34.53851918169612,0.0,0.26115691663789,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.19047619047619,32.48574600837375,0.0,0.7936244461538462,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.23809523809523,30.439643747943656,0.0,52.37668190762821,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,61.90476190476192,31.991168200458866,0.0,24.157588808205134,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.11904761904761,28.156281905326587,0.0,0.20589281349358973,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.35714285714286,27.784248749062858,0.0,1.7026751536335043,0.8333333333333334,0.0 -AutoARIMA,46.42857142857144,6.61529754700757,0.0,13.813905255526317,0.0,33.33333333333333 -Stat. Ensemble,45.23809523809524,5.453467246975352,0.0,28.261405801640862,0.0,33.33333333333333 -Sundial-Base,39.285714285714285,20.76097880985013,0.0,7.8157010582409505,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.71428571428573,-11.90147576720375,0.0,1.7578207659544929,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,30.357142857142865,0.0,0.0,0.1546446881304136,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,23.80952380952381,-205.05655001362152,0.0,4.8025043967024885,0.0,0.0 -Drift,19.047619047619044,-119.36994598641353,0.0,0.14687456285464573,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.690476190476192,-118.20697665885001,0.0,0.15513795943548064,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.025730182452186,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,42.67646308509806,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,87.75510204081634,42.05186472663197,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,69.38775510204081,37.208526302389004,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.018777793021975,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,33.55369924549565,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,39.79591836734694,9.230847183253665,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 +Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,7.230158345242376,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 +Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.489795918367346,-26.74094614085021,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-344.79628604120813,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.204081632653061,-146.71797661038454,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.061224489795918,-161.01029312352807,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 5f50e2a6841d58534428d35dd5a14072a2230954..4b36d23a0364583253f8c3e79d747a2e3635e0af 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,83.33333333333334,21.324710763820896,0.0,0.26784322794871795,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,78.57142857142856,20.85333057264023,0.0,0.26115691663789,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,72.61904761904762,20.363401785223758,0.0,0.7936244461538462,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.23809523809523,24.025327260859054,0.0,52.37668190762821,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.66666666666667,19.95962232581897,0.0,24.157588808205134,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.547619047619044,16.170926676832266,0.0,1.7026751536335043,0.8333333333333334,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,55.35714285714285,15.802884680588313,0.0,0.20589281349358973,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,50.0,10.084443983533431,0.0,7.8157010582409505,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,42.85714285714287,9.403612409193551,0.0,28.261405801640862,0.0,33.33333333333333 -AutoARIMA,40.476190476190474,6.515361175222156,0.0,13.813905255526317,0.0,33.33333333333333 -AutoTheta,38.0952380952381,11.488387532362754,0.0,1.7578207659544929,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,32.73809523809524,0.0,0.0,0.1546446881304136,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,28.57142857142857,-21.961397745126266,0.0,4.8025043967024885,0.0,0.0 -Drift,17.857142857142854,-22.032645241338678,0.0,0.14687456285464573,0.0,0.0 -Naive,16.071428571428573,-23.914241845272176,0.0,0.15513795943548064,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,31.42661419654642,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,87.75510204081633,30.13802811893269,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,80.61224489795919,28.669799374404302,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,68.36734693877551,25.6785844710001,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,65.3061224489796,25.90099075182256,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,62.24489795918367,23.330206039824308,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,4.641393336578314,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 +AutoARIMA,35.71428571428572,2.3947580894125298,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 +Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.510204081632654,0.0437412996646791,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-23.08073844288401,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.183673469387754,-43.56382513496191,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.0204081632653061,-58.78908483912755,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv index f2c1eab610836cab8524fdf861da32939168a130..4175c9cd517194a3be14d018d7ed81295c4261ed 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,83.33333333333334,35.204274552047885,0.0,0.26784322794871795,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,83.33333333333333,34.7246344700893,0.0,0.26115691663789,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.19047619047619,32.919263458775205,0.0,0.7936244461538462,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.23809523809523,33.67977167229876,0.0,52.37668190762821,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,32.650044473354214,0.0,24.157588808205134,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.738095238095234,27.880696156865582,0.0,0.20589281349358973,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.547619047619044,27.806121580738196,0.0,1.7026751536335043,0.8333333333333334,0.0 -AutoARIMA,46.42857142857144,10.009918487007152,0.0,13.813905255526317,0.0,33.33333333333333 -Stat. Ensemble,44.04761904761906,8.30704949044635,0.0,28.261405801640862,0.0,33.33333333333333 -Sundial-Base,39.285714285714285,18.821645377219486,0.0,7.8157010582409505,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,36.90476190476191,-6.590864483593606,0.0,1.7578207659544929,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,32.73809523809524,0.0,0.0,0.1546446881304136,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,23.80952380952381,-198.1123633616785,0.0,4.8025043967024885,0.0,0.0 -Drift,19.047619047619044,-103.02469270449221,0.0,0.14687456285464573,0.0,0.0 -Naive,16.071428571428573,-115.43969504137333,0.0,0.15513795943548064,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,43.233433897648524,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,84.6938775510204,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,70.40816326530613,38.56288334540934,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.79490314550572,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,40.81632653061225,9.557478558677035,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 +Stat. Ensemble,35.71428571428572,5.698092718548208,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 +Seasonal Naive,28.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.46938775510204,-35.07795159739386,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-351.4556695211341,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.204081632653061,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.061224489795918,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv index 594919a5be50590bd082c45c9d9bc37e9ae0c27c..579bf81f394c68737063aa6bd2234bffe7831925 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.015,0.009,0.023 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.061 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.04,-0.033,0.1 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.014,0.065 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.027,0.113 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.027,0.113 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.058,0.175 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.175,-0.0,0.32 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.197,0.038,0.332 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.179,0.015,0.321 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.129,0.322 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.347,0.112,0.558 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.405,0.171,0.552 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.236,0.486 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.016,-0.023,-0.009 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.012,-0.036,0.048 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.025,-0.049,0.084 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.021,-0.0,0.047 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.016,0.097 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.016,0.097 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.104,0.045,0.16 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.162,-0.012,0.305 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.184,0.024,0.321 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.167,-0.0,0.307 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.12,0.307 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.337,0.103,0.547 -TiRex,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.396,0.159,0.544 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.227,0.477 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.028,-0.065,0.016 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.012,-0.05,0.035 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.024,0.061 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.034,0.009,0.076 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.049,0.126 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.061,0.146 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.141 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.176,0.353 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.204,0.364 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.185,0.384 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.233,0.391 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.237,0.543 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.402,0.614 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.451,0.653 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.065,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.013,-0.08,0.077 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.01,-0.046,0.077 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.043,-0.016,0.106 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.043,-0.016,0.106 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.048,0.139 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.152,-0.047,0.322 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.174,-0.012,0.329 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.157,-0.024,0.303 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.203,0.082,0.328 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.329,0.086,0.55 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.389,0.127,0.552 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.357,0.192,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.112,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.025,-0.091,0.047 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.013,-0.084,0.074 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.021,0.051 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.04,0.109 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.048,0.127 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,-0.003,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.15,0.359 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.184,0.367 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.17,0.391 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.39 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.219,0.542 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.37,0.621 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.43,0.659 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.082,-0.009 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.054,0.02 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.02,0.093 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.071,0.027,0.116 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.016,0.076 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.144,0.332 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.179,0.342 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.155,0.369 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.214,0.356 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.205,0.532 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.375,0.603 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.435,0.643 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.144,-0.051 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.122,-0.042 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.102,-0.02 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.003,-0.076,0.063 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.031,-0.025,0.088 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.031,-0.025,0.089 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.081,-0.002,0.181 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.141,0.015,0.267 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.164,0.049,0.277 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.145,0.029,0.254 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.113,0.282 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.111,0.518 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.381,0.179,0.531 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.226,0.47 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.069,-0.014 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.022,-0.049,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.01,-0.083,0.044 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.003,-0.067,0.071 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.034,-0.006,0.08 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.034,-0.006,0.08 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.085,0.009,0.154 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.144,-0.028,0.285 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.166,0.008,0.295 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.148,-0.028,0.296 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.196,0.11,0.283 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.323,0.083,0.533 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.383,0.153,0.527 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.218,0.458 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.074,-0.128,-0.028 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.045,-0.119,0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.032,-0.097,0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.035,-0.087,0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.5,0.75,0.0,0.0,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.052,-0.022,0.122 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.114,-0.052,0.244 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.137,-0.01,0.261 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.118,-0.047,0.26 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.168,0.065,0.259 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.299,0.066,0.517 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.361,0.108,0.52 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.328,0.179,0.459 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.074,-0.128,-0.028 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.045,-0.119,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.032,-0.097,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.035,-0.087,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.5,-0.0,-0.001,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.015,-0.02,0.054 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.013,-0.076,0.044 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.109,0.286 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.148,0.295 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.32 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.154,0.321 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.174,0.502 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.328,0.578 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.398,0.621 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.052,-0.022,0.121 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.113,-0.052,0.244 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.137,-0.011,0.261 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.118,-0.048,0.26 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.167,0.064,0.259 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.299,0.066,0.517 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.361,0.107,0.52 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.328,0.179,0.459 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.212,-0.061 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.116,-0.191,-0.047 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.162,-0.05 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.089,-0.22,0.002 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.092,-0.183,-0.009 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.055,-0.138,0.022 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.055,-0.138,0.022 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.171,-0.065 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.096,-0.145,-0.05 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.077,-0.131,-0.027 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.016,-0.057,0.02 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.064,-0.19,0.242 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.089,-0.136,0.252 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.07,-0.155,0.21 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.121,-0.023,0.249 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.26,-0.004,0.472 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.326,0.02,0.512 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.291,0.09,0.451 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.212,-0.47,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.193,-0.438,0.012 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.179,-0.475,0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.164,-0.363,-0.016 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.168,-0.398,0.027 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.128,-0.322,0.049 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.128,-0.322,0.05 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.069,-0.32,0.16 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.029,-0.108,0.041 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.186,0.072,0.282 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.123,0.291 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.123,0.313 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.136,0.317 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.18,0.475 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.308,0.575 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.38,0.616 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.164,-0.031 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.134,0.003 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.082,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.013,-0.046,0.07 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.028,-0.043,0.098 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.209,0.098,0.307 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.235,0.131,0.313 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.238,0.103,0.343 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.188,0.319 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.363,0.156,0.515 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.356,0.581 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.417,0.623 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.37,-0.546,-0.213 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.561,-0.177 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.497,-0.169 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.401,-0.122 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.229,-0.392,-0.077 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.264,-0.443,-0.109 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.027,-0.002,0.067 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.006,-0.121,0.136 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.061,-0.035,0.14 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.209,0.02,0.444 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.279,0.101,0.44 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.117,0.379 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.245,-0.497,-0.039 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.226,-0.472,-0.024 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.211,-0.49,0.012 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.196,-0.382,-0.052 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.2,-0.418,-0.009 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.159,-0.353,0.01 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.159,-0.353,0.011 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.098,-0.337,0.12 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.027,-0.072,0.002 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.032,-0.002,0.079 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.085,0.148 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.059,-0.038,0.141 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.194,0.026,0.393 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.172,0.461 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.251,0.517 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.572,-0.256 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.581,-0.225 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.519,-0.218 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.29,-0.418,-0.174 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.41,-0.14 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.307,-0.455,-0.15 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.033,-0.085,0.002 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.022,-0.132,0.084 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.035,-0.058,0.12 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.187,0.016,0.4 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.26,0.085,0.44 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.099,0.374 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.218,-0.472,-0.015 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.2,-0.443,0.0 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.186,-0.436,0.023 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.17,-0.341,-0.03 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.174,-0.42,0.028 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.134,-0.351,0.045 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.134,-0.351,0.046 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.075,-0.266,0.134 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.006,-0.157,0.108 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.021,-0.092,0.117 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.104,0.098 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.214,0.857,0.027,-0.063,0.098 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.167,-0.0,0.353 +AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.141,0.448 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.227,0.503 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.624,-0.227 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.643,-0.205 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.586,-0.184 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.47,-0.147 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.456,-0.14 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.312,-0.523,-0.115 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.173,0.079 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.109,0.094 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.056,-0.093,0.175 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.205,0.043,0.362 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.275,0.114,0.439 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.237,0.09,0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.29,-0.475,-0.148 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.443,-0.137 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.255,-0.487,-0.09 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.239,-0.393,-0.127 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.243,-0.394,-0.124 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.201,-0.349,-0.069 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.201,-0.349,-0.068 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.138,-0.331,0.022 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.065,-0.163,0.034 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.036,-0.137,0.055 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.059,-0.212,0.085 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.023,-0.109,0.143 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.163,0.016,0.312 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.306,0.133,0.424 +AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.233,0.477 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.456,-0.641,-0.304 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.639,-0.257 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.554,-0.272 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.474,-0.182 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.465,-0.157 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.468,-0.232 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.062,-0.164,0.036 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.786,-0.028,-0.109,0.059 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.023,-0.167,0.098 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.158,-0.064,0.399 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.233,0.014,0.39 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.193,0.082,0.319 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.532,-1.262,-0.126 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.508,-1.208,-0.115 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.49,-1.22,-0.094 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-1.076,-0.125 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.476,-1.143,-0.09 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.426,-1.071,-0.071 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.426,-1.071,-0.07 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.351,-0.892,0.004 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.264,-0.799,-0.02 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.23,-0.668,-0.016 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.257,-0.567,-0.045 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.187,-0.665,0.06 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.144,-0.08,0.347 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.162,0.408 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.233,0.467 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.7,-1.189,-0.31 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-1.186,-0.281 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.642,-1.135,-0.258 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-1.007,-0.211 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.905,-0.219 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.569,-1.06,-0.185 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.241,-0.648,-0.027 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.201,-0.545,0.0 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.195,-0.452,-0.016 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.168,-0.531,0.074 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.089,-0.262,0.37 -AutoETS,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.041,-0.415,0.332 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.682,-1.232,-0.206 -Drift,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.656,-1.193,-0.19 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.636,-1.234,-0.146 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.615,-1.133,-0.218 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.621,-1.116,-0.18 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.566,-1.082,-0.121 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.565,-1.082,-0.12 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.483,-1.048,-0.02 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.388,-0.787,-0.113 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.351,-0.786,-0.093 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.38,-0.783,-0.129 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.303,-0.639,-0.014 -Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.098,-0.587,0.208 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.052,-0.156,0.084 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.946,-0.31 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.573,-0.913,-0.293 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.555,-0.961,-0.238 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.885,-0.292 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.54,-0.845,-0.278 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.488,-0.849,-0.219 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.487,-0.849,-0.218 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.41,-0.821,-0.098 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.319,-0.609,-0.133 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.284,-0.599,-0.11 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.311,-0.63,-0.098 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.238,-0.468,-0.089 -Naive,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.043,-0.498,0.294 -Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.05,-0.092,0.135 +AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,-0.204,0.396 +AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.251,-0.069,0.449 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.592,-0.672 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.641,-0.586 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.979,-1.521,-0.601 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.866,-1.37,-0.488 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.837,-1.355,-0.444 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.385,-0.552 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.495,-0.856,-0.207 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.811,-0.164 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.44,-0.736,-0.153 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.689,-0.193 +Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.205,-0.655,0.169 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.063,0.13 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.88,-0.82 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.229,-1.932,-0.755 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.191,-1.804,-0.769 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.066,-1.636,-0.662 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.602,-0.613 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.093,-1.654,-0.714 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.07,-0.335 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-1.01,-0.294 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.913,-0.303 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.877,-0.304 +Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.334,-0.816,0.065 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.149,-0.068 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv index 5a621bb86c1ed6fdf5800f945da28caf7fc974dd..42171efdf26c4d5ed45583c455a0621643dd36ce 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.016,0.008,0.024 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.046,-0.006,0.097 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.074,-0.004,0.147 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.053,0.037,0.069 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.045,0.174 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.052,0.176 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.31,0.118,0.474 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.319,0.121,0.484 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.13,0.243 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.424,0.155,0.639 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.356,0.212,0.487 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.761,0.348,0.939 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.706,0.467,0.821 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.524,0.806 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.016,-0.025,-0.008 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.03,-0.026,0.084 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.059,-0.015,0.13 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.025,0.051 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.035,0.155 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.041,0.157 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.299,0.108,0.461 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.308,0.11,0.471 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.117,0.233 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.415,0.146,0.632 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.201,0.476 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.758,0.34,0.938 -TiRex,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.702,0.464,0.817 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.519,0.802 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.048,-0.107,0.006 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.031,-0.092,0.025 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.024,-0.013,0.065 +Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.034,0.012,0.07 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.062,0.153 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.044,0.138 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.126,0.193 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.26,0.478 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.273,0.489 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.347,0.521 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.343,0.711 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.86,0.51,0.958 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.719,0.816 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.732,0.829 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.069,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.084,0.108 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.007,-0.053,0.066 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.018,0.135 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.065,-0.007,0.135 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.277,0.055,0.463 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.286,0.058,0.472 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.116,0.18 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.397,0.077,0.632 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.325,0.145,0.483 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.751,0.301,0.937 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.692,0.415,0.815 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.691,0.471,0.801 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.08,-0.172,0.004 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.063,-0.149,0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.03,-0.122,0.078 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.028,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.05,0.119 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.005,0.11 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.137,0.109,0.169 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.245,0.471 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.255,0.481 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.314,0.522 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.33,0.709 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.856,0.492,0.957 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.709,0.815 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.724,0.826 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.035,-0.076,-0.012 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.044,0.027 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,0.027,0.129 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.03,0.074 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.09,0.167 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.233,0.466 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.24,0.476 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.325,0.506 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.317,0.701 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.855,0.486,0.957 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.704,0.812 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.717,0.824 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.122,-0.181,-0.067 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.135,-0.052 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.147,-0.028 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.023,-0.117,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.032,-0.059,0.098 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.037,-0.059,0.107 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.255,0.095,0.414 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.264,0.104,0.421 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.045,0.229 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.378,0.128,0.599 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.188,0.437 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.751,0.337,0.937 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.683,0.455,0.792 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.681,0.514,0.776 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.056,-0.074,-0.039 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.039,-0.054,-0.026 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.007,-0.071,0.05 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.022,-0.06,0.105 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.03,-0.107,0.041 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.032,0.082 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.199,0.416 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.209,0.425 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.269,0.467 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.278,0.671 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.463,0.955 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.691,0.79 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.759,0.706,0.803 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.16,-0.046 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.124,-0.005 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.08,-0.031 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.029,-0.042,0.096 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.053,-0.003,0.125 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.058,0.005,0.13 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.272,0.072,0.436 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.281,0.075,0.454 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.083,0.201 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.392,0.111,0.61 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.32,0.174,0.45 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.75,0.314,0.937 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.69,0.441,0.81 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.688,0.498,0.794 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.211,-0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.184,-0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.156,0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.033,-0.109,0.055 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.056,-0.143,0.003 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.082,0.022,0.136 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.328,0.187,0.44 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.343,0.196,0.453 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.294,0.473 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.277,0.683 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.849,0.443,0.955 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.683,0.804 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.697,0.817 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.5,0.75,0.005,0.0,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.231,0.046,0.387 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.24,0.048,0.394 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.093,0.001,0.177 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.358,0.078,0.579 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.282,0.122,0.42 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.736,0.275,0.933 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.672,0.413,0.799 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.671,0.476,0.782 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.214,-0.054 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.187,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.156,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.038,-0.12,0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.062,-0.149,-0.005 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.5,-0.005,-0.016,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.227,0.036,0.387 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.236,0.038,0.394 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.089,0.001,0.168 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.355,0.07,0.579 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.278,0.113,0.42 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.735,0.264,0.933 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.671,0.404,0.799 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.669,0.468,0.782 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.45,-0.9,-0.134 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.427,-0.855,-0.121 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.383,-0.861,-0.059 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.342,-0.706,-0.106 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.373,-0.774,-0.078 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.3,-0.631,-0.048 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.293,-0.631,-0.037 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.24,-0.145 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.159,-0.203,-0.122 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.147,-0.2,-0.098 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.089,-0.033 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.09,-0.158,-0.022 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.146,0.375 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.156,0.39 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.229,0.428 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.476,0.241,0.651 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.84,0.419,0.954 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.671,0.779 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.688,0.793 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.622,-0.916,-0.35 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.889,-0.325 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.871,-0.303 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.712,-0.248 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.488,-0.784,-0.23 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.6,-0.171 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.012,-0.009,0.032 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.179,-0.569,0.106 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.165,0.01,0.331 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.066,-0.106,0.183 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.681,0.151,0.924 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.574,0.355,0.703 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.414,0.681 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.468,-0.939,-0.137 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.444,-0.89,-0.124 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.4,-0.893,-0.061 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.359,-0.726,-0.116 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.39,-0.83,-0.081 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.316,-0.649,-0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.309,-0.649,-0.04 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.012,-0.033,0.008 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.022,0.004,0.038 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.092,-0.059,0.197 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.084,0.465 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.253,0.937 +AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.632,0.558,0.691 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.58,0.71 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.956,-0.376 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.927,-0.342 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.908,-0.316 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.477,-0.74,-0.265 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.521,-0.829,-0.243 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.639,-0.185 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.022,-0.039,-0.004 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.193,-0.583,0.103 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.155,-0.001,0.323 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.055,-0.131,0.172 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.68,0.142,0.924 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.569,0.349,0.695 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.421,0.671 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.321,-0.149 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.21,-0.303,-0.132 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.219,-0.131 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.139,-0.298,-0.047 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.251,-0.09 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.103,-0.215,-0.001 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.202,-0.001 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.151,-0.118,0.363 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.162,-0.115,0.368 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.292,-0.052,0.56 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.208,-0.0,0.378 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.719,0.178,0.932 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.639,0.305,0.778 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.637,0.372,0.761 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.737,-1.768,-0.183 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.709,-1.715,-0.172 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.657,-1.72,-0.083 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.609,-1.491,-0.146 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.645,-1.566,-0.125 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.558,-1.378,-0.085 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.55,-1.377,-0.076 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.198,-0.494,-0.011 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.184,-0.477,0.001 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.412,-1.274,0.049 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.119,-0.453,0.102 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.643,-0.009,0.923 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.49,0.234,0.64 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.294,0.613 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.553,-0.949,-0.27 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.907,-0.252 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.481,-0.932,-0.17 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.776,-0.232 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.47,-0.818,-0.21 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.392,-0.723,-0.138 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.385,-0.723,-0.127 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.071,-0.223,0.096 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.208,0.116 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.262,-0.608,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.106,-0.113,0.312 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.072,-0.096,0.186 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.067,0.446 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.245,0.936 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.549,0.68 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.572,0.701 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.087,-0.531 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.744,-1.092,-0.458 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.023,-0.482 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.876,-0.368 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.64,-0.896,-0.416 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.749,-0.296 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.102,-0.245,0.056 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.078,-0.228,0.088 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.672,0.112,0.925 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.544,0.278,0.667 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.542,0.358,0.64 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.183,-15.408,-0.533 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.129,-15.177,-0.515 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.02,-14.891,-0.43 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.015,-14.814,-0.508 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.995,-14.89,-0.458 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.794,-13.898,-0.38 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.775,-13.824,-0.358 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.138,-12.22,-0.178 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.124,-12.185,-0.166 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.552,-13.802,-0.217 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.833,-1.8,-11.907,0.009 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.051,-12.263,-0.126 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.211,-0.037,0.4 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.775,0.199,0.936 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.537,0.639 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.555,0.664 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.264,-2.458,-0.521 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.211,-2.434,-0.492 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.187,-2.346,-0.464 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.018,-2.041,-0.385 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.078,-2.15,-0.384 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.907,-1.864,-0.318 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.868,-0.091 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.806,-0.072 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.267,-0.667,0.036 +AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.722,0.013,0.91 +AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.336,0.597 +AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.375,0.62 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.136,-22.624,-1.041 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.961,-22.389,-0.969 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.913,-22.04,-0.946 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.568,-21.334,-0.862 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.605,-21.234,-0.797 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.248,-20.643,-0.722 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.735,-14.953,-0.339 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-14.613,-0.324 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.448,-14.656,-0.248 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.591,-10.089,-0.013 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.716,-8.372,0.458 -AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,-0.698,-8.492,0.445 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.406,-4.59,-0.877 -Drift,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.351,-4.472,-0.864 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.249,-4.4,-0.709 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.154,-3.801,-0.836 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.226,-4.267,-0.79 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.053,-3.967,-0.703 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.038,-3.967,-0.677 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.349,-2.372,-0.55 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.32,-2.278,-0.535 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.768,-3.508,-0.438 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.96,-1.777,-0.305 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.194,-2.003,-0.385 -Drift,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.417,-0.844,0.893 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.005,-0.083,0.11 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.388,-4.154,-1.102 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.333,-4.046,-1.079 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.232,-4.027,-0.892 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.137,-3.467,-1.059 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.209,-3.857,-0.994 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.037,-3.586,-0.908 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.022,-3.586,-0.881 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.337,-2.134,-0.705 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.308,-2.042,-0.727 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.754,-3.191,-0.593 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.95,-1.587,-0.416 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.182,-1.774,-0.557 -Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.0,0.667,0.411,-0.8,0.895 -Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.005,-0.123,0.076 +AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.129,-7.081,0.442 +AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.041,-6.801,0.465 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.408,-4.434,-2.563 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.304,-4.393,-2.438 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.258,-4.322,-2.38 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.929,-3.762,-2.238 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.046,-4.115,-2.158 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.713,-3.518,-2.044 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.718,-2.232,-1.263 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.659,-2.123,-1.216 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.467,-1.772,-1.16 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.947,-1.479,-0.505 +Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.53,-0.793,0.876 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-4.836,-2.73 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.553,-4.74,-2.617 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.504,-4.692,-2.529 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.157,-4.067,-2.401 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.28,-4.461,-2.302 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.928,-3.827,-2.2 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.876,-2.448,-1.382 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-2.34,-1.336 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-1.975,-1.248 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.629,-0.6 +Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.51,-0.87,0.872 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 67dc6a5eb4b086df9c1e09415287f6430fef91b7..7b073f0bd9bbbaf6cdbe78e76ec2d1b42f4fbd3a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.006,-0.021,0.025 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.012,-0.024,0.046 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.036,-0.297,0.1 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.038,0.062 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.061,0.005,0.123 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.066,0.014,0.123 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.059,0.188 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.132,-0.151,0.327 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.158,-0.091,0.336 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.111,-0.26,0.324 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.213,0.093,0.324 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.355,0.057,0.594 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.355,-0.073,0.554 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.365,0.203,0.488 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.006,-0.026,0.021 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.006,-0.043,0.041 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,1.0,-0.042,-0.273,0.081 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.011,-0.02,0.043 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.056,0.013,0.105 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.06,0.018,0.106 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.12,0.044,0.191 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.136,0.312 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.153,-0.073,0.318 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.106,-0.237,0.307 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.209,0.108,0.309 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.351,0.071,0.583 -TiRex,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.351,-0.05,0.544 -TiRex,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.361,0.218,0.476 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.012,-0.048,0.023 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.006,-0.043,0.041 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.018,-0.024,0.065 +Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.011,0.084 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.047,0.108 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.03,0.134 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.06,0.154 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.182,0.366 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.206,0.369 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.232,0.391 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.201,0.401 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.261,0.591 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.402,0.632 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.454,0.667 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.019,-0.069,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.048,-0.297,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.005,-0.062,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.05,-0.014,0.119 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.054,-0.003,0.119 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.053,0.178 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.121,-0.181,0.336 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.148,-0.121,0.339 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.1,-0.264,0.314 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.204,0.075,0.334 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.347,0.061,0.594 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.347,-0.077,0.556 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.357,0.19,0.497 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.034,-0.111,0.229 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,0.04,-0.088,0.214 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.046,-0.087,0.229 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.017,0.056 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.095 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.112 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.047,0.134 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.157,0.371 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.184,0.374 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.392 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.401 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.239,0.579 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.513,0.375,0.635 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.431,0.67 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.091,-0.011 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.059,0.016 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.04,-0.005,0.083 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,0.013,0.064 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.07,0.022,0.12 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.153,0.343 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.176,0.345 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.21,0.357 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.173,0.377 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.225,0.575 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.378,0.619 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.436,0.656 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.12,-0.049 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.105,-0.024 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.042,-0.09,0.005 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.051,-0.076,0.203 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.094,-0.018,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.098,-0.018,0.252 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.155,0.0,0.356 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.161,0.055,0.276 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.093,0.285 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.142,0.013,0.258 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.133,0.334 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.17,0.563 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.377,0.166,0.529 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.29,0.489 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.066,0.036 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.011,-0.045,0.02 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.005,-0.087,0.059 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.054,-0.255,0.07 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.045,-0.002,0.091 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.049,0.001,0.097 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.11,0.012,0.208 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.117,-0.129,0.29 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.144,-0.065,0.301 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.096,-0.229,0.302 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.116,0.286 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.344,0.069,0.576 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.344,-0.034,0.527 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.231,0.454 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.066,-0.14,-0.005 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.117,-0.013 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.053,-0.135,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.103,-0.32,0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.047,-0.1,0.002 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.074,0.064 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.031,-0.004,0.071 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.126,0.307 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.155,0.311 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.158,0.338 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.161,0.341 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.208,0.548 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.34,0.599 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.409,0.638 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.5,0.75,0.004,0.0,0.013 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.068,-0.03,0.163 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.075,-0.162,0.243 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.119,0.258 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.053,-0.299,0.255 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.162,0.051,0.258 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.313,0.038,0.557 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.313,-0.106,0.521 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.323,0.175,0.453 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.14,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.064,-0.119,-0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.057,-0.135,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.108,-0.337,0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.052,-0.107,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.25,0.5,-0.004,-0.013,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.064,-0.03,0.152 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.071,-0.177,0.243 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.099,-0.129,0.258 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.049,-0.316,0.255 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.158,0.041,0.258 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.31,0.029,0.557 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.31,-0.12,0.521 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.321,0.164,0.453 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.232,-0.062 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.136,-0.236,-0.046 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.129,-0.216,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.183,-0.552,-0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.123,-0.262,-0.012 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.073,-0.195,0.03 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.068,-0.18,0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.155,-0.031 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.061,-0.126,0.002 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.039,-0.068,-0.013 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.068,0.069 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.037,0.105 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.223,0.115,0.32 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.241,0.135,0.323 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.186,0.327 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.134,0.355 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.398,0.183,0.558 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.484,0.361,0.601 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.424,0.639 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.182,-0.064 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.155,-0.049 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.075,-0.137,-0.022 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.032,-0.076,0.004 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.117,0.036 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.008,-0.395,0.248 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.038,-0.314,0.256 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.016,-0.513,0.217 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.101,-0.09,0.245 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.263,-0.071,0.518 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.263,-0.283,0.514 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.274,0.032,0.451 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.152,-0.486,0.132 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.454,0.12 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.138,-0.505,0.153 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.192,-0.381,-0.058 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.132,-0.408,0.115 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.081,-0.322,0.139 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.076,-0.322,0.15 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.008,-0.33,0.283 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.196,0.075,0.293 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.214,0.116,0.296 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.129,0.32 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.2,0.517 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.307,0.593 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.382,0.63 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.576,-0.223 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.365,-0.59,-0.186 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.521,-0.181 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.442,-0.144 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.287,-0.47,-0.13 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.244,-0.415,-0.081 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.031,-0.001,0.067 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.024,-0.166,0.127 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.094,-0.051,0.233 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.257,0.028,0.51 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.258,0.025,0.439 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.121,0.396 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.188,-0.505,0.084 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.181,-0.467,0.068 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.174,-0.512,0.108 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.399,-0.103 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.168,-0.43,0.061 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.115,-0.348,0.106 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.348,0.114 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.04,-0.344,0.239 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.032,-0.072,0.001 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.003,0.057 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.046,-0.053,0.122 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.046,-0.075,0.154 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,0.031,0.454 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.169,0.472 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.251,0.523 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.586,-0.259 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.599,-0.225 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.527,-0.214 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.452,-0.183 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.317,-0.478,-0.156 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.273,-0.421,-0.131 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.06,0.003 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.056,-0.207,0.083 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.065,-0.072,0.196 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.233,0.024,0.48 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.234,-0.003,0.435 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.101,0.385 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.125,-0.479,0.207 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.118,-0.443,0.192 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.111,-0.458,0.209 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.165,-0.347,-0.014 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.106,-0.432,0.186 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.056,-0.342,0.23 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.051,-0.342,0.24 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.016,-0.277,0.339 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.023,-0.145,0.143 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.053,-0.091,0.172 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.115,-0.103,0.307 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.274,0.067,0.457 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.275,0.111,0.436 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.286,0.089,0.433 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.271,-0.478,-0.102 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.263,-0.447,-0.122 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.256,-0.501,-0.081 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.316,-0.502,-0.153 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.249,-0.401,-0.132 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.193,-0.348,-0.054 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.188,-0.348,-0.043 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.112,-0.324,0.082 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.104,-0.303,0.049 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.07,-0.244,0.067 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.13,-0.443,0.093 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.024,-0.078,0.095 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.083,0.116 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.207,0.025,0.416 +AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.141,0.464 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.232,0.514 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.643,-0.303 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.644,-0.257 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.555,-0.267 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.51,-0.187 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.486,-0.228 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.47,-0.149 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.049,-0.139,0.05 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.025,-0.106,0.072 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.18,-0.084,0.457 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.181,-0.198,0.392 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.193,0.079,0.318 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.55,-1.461,-0.061 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.541,-1.4,-0.077 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.531,-1.465,-0.065 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-1.289,-0.205 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.524,-1.36,-0.074 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.455,-1.256,-0.039 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.449,-1.256,-0.03 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.356,-1.074,0.066 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.346,-1.041,-0.029 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.305,-0.921,-0.024 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.378,-0.841,-0.072 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.22,-0.841,0.078 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.0,-0.126,0.117 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,-0.039,0.409 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.168,0.426 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.476 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.67,-0.251 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.67,-0.233 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.605,-0.209 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.517,-0.192 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.349,-0.549,-0.155 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.476,-0.161 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.048,-0.182,0.07 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.024,-0.132,0.076 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.0,-0.132,0.112 +AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,0.007,0.358 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.304,0.124,0.431 +AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.225,0.483 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.795,-1.442,-0.353 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.377,-0.314 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.355,-0.29 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.212,-0.263 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.661,-1.263,-0.224 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-1.069,-0.251 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.291,-0.831,-0.032 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.261,-0.713,-0.025 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.693,0.037 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.558,-0.007 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.001,-0.5,0.336 -AutoETS,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.016,-0.556,0.328 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.551,-1.244,0.068 -Drift,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.542,-1.191,0.048 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.532,-1.251,0.071 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.606,-1.122,-0.199 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.525,-1.116,0.033 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.456,-1.088,0.096 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.449,-1.088,0.108 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.357,-1.058,0.22 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.347,-0.783,-0.026 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.305,-0.77,0.003 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.379,-0.772,-0.125 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.22,-0.646,0.165 -Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.001,-0.506,0.333 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.015,-0.161,0.255 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.575,-0.952,-0.254 -Naive,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.566,-0.909,-0.279 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.556,-0.988,-0.234 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.956,-0.408 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-0.833,-0.301 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.478,-0.827,-0.212 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.472,-0.827,-0.197 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.378,-0.821,-0.034 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.654,-0.138 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.626,-0.112 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.4,-0.764,-0.097 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.239,-0.467,-0.086 -Naive,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.016,-0.489,0.357 -Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.015,-0.342,0.138 +AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.143,-0.329,0.392 +AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,-0.164,0.446 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.094,-1.716,-0.672 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.055,-1.74,-0.6 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.625,-0.609 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.494,-0.515 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.937,-1.509,-0.564 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.455,-0.443 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.892,-0.203 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.866,-0.164 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.742,-0.202 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.436,-0.759,-0.141 +Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.166,-0.644,0.247 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.059,0.132 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.316,-2.005,-0.833 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.273,-2.03,-0.758 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.905,-0.772 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.137,-1.766,-0.692 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-1.769,-0.735 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.071,-1.702,-0.619 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-1.096,-0.335 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-1.057,-0.301 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.907,-0.322 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.589,-0.934,-0.291 +Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.29,-0.804,0.141 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.106,-0.152,-0.063 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv index 9cff9b973db82059603690fb1e4fe07ea6c137b6..d8a19f9aad22a4725a1ca441981f6047861bfec6 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.007,-0.023,0.028 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.034,-0.009,0.071 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.023,-0.172,0.15 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.038,0.004,0.066 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.102,0.034,0.185 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.102,0.035,0.185 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.28,0.009,0.477 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.293,0.012,0.502 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.132,0.272 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.392,-0.011,0.646 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.352,0.188,0.494 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.752,0.299,0.939 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.681,0.322,0.822 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.699,0.498,0.807 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.007,-0.028,0.022 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.027,-0.028,0.08 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.016,-0.147,0.128 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.031,0.019,0.046 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.095,0.038,0.165 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.039,0.165 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.275,0.03,0.462 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.288,0.027,0.486 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.196,0.118,0.288 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.388,-0.001,0.64 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.193,0.482 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.752,0.306,0.939 -TiRex,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.678,0.337,0.817 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.509,0.801 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.035,-0.077,0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.833,-0.028,-0.087,0.027 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.013,0.065 +Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.014,0.072 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.054,0.147 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.044,0.13 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.123,0.197 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.263,0.484 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.284,0.5 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.347,0.528 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.369,0.738 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.861,0.529,0.958 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.715,0.819 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.729,0.831 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.07,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.011,-0.23,0.111 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.066 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.07,-0.008,0.146 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.071,-0.006,0.146 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.255,-0.032,0.469 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.268,-0.035,0.481 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.121,0.238 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.371,-0.057,0.643 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.329,0.139,0.492 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.746,0.267,0.938 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.67,0.274,0.815 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.689,0.464,0.803 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.024,-0.176,0.146 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.016,-0.147,0.128 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.011,-0.125,0.187 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.025,0.047 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.037,0.111 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.005,0.106 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.104,0.173 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.245,0.478 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.27,0.494 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.315,0.529 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.351,0.739 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.858,0.504,0.958 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.703,0.819 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.781,0.718,0.829 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.078,-0.015 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.049,0.024 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.063,0.005,0.121 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.044,0.026,0.064 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.081,0.169 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.233,0.47 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.254,0.486 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.325,0.511 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.347,0.73 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.857,0.501,0.957 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.699,0.814 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.71,0.827 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.108,-0.173,-0.057 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.125,-0.038 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.067,-0.138,-0.005 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.015,-0.12,0.156 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.08,-0.05,0.208 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.081,-0.05,0.21 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.263,0.098,0.418 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.277,0.111,0.435 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.183,0.05,0.37 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.378,0.09,0.614 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.337,0.228,0.45 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.36,0.94 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.673,0.41,0.792 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.563,0.776 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.039,-0.071,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.032,-0.048,-0.019 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.004,-0.071,0.059 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.016,-0.184,0.107 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.066,0.009,0.141 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.067,0.011,0.142 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.252,-0.001,0.445 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.265,-0.005,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.087,0.268 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.368,-0.029,0.624 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.327,0.174,0.459 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.745,0.286,0.938 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.668,0.32,0.811 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.687,0.496,0.795 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.113,-0.227,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.105,-0.198,-0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.075,-0.171,0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.087,-0.262,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.164,-0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.5,0.75,0.001,0.0,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.199,-0.031,0.384 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.213,-0.038,0.406 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.112,-0.005,0.231 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.323,-0.077,0.589 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.279,0.104,0.427 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.728,0.239,0.933 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.645,0.267,0.797 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.665,0.45,0.783 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.114,-0.227,-0.037 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.106,-0.198,-0.041 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.076,-0.171,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.089,-0.266,0.048 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.072,-0.166,-0.011 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.5,-0.001,-0.003,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.103,0.057 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.044,0.094 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.209,0.427 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.236,0.448 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.279,0.482 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.545,0.314,0.713 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.853,0.488,0.957 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.749,0.689,0.798 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.706,0.81 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.198,-0.035,0.384 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.213,-0.04,0.406 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.111,-0.005,0.228 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.323,-0.079,0.589 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.278,0.103,0.427 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.728,0.237,0.933 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.644,0.265,0.797 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.665,0.448,0.783 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.389,-0.914,-0.009 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.379,-0.859,-0.031 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.342,-0.882,0.031 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.357,-0.719,-0.108 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.336,-0.802,0.001 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.248,-0.622,0.031 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.247,-0.622,0.034 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.149,-0.046 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.118,-0.005 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.046,-0.068,-0.027 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.061,0.093 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.142 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.448 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.362,0.222,0.465 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.296,0.483 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.316,0.717 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.852,0.474,0.956 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.754,0.681,0.808 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.693,0.821 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.246,-0.141 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.16,-0.209,-0.116 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.204,-0.088 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.104,-0.046 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.093,-0.165,-0.022 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.272,0.151,0.385 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.173,0.402 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.232,0.438 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.513,0.269,0.689 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.843,0.442,0.955 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.666,0.784 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.94,-0.357 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.914,-0.324 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.886,-0.304 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.472,-0.745,-0.264 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.502,-0.811,-0.236 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.374,-0.625,-0.178 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.019,-0.018,0.061 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.109,-0.566,0.253 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.156,-0.044,0.35 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.1,-0.094,0.239 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.683,0.184,0.924 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.557,0.28,0.705 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.451,0.681 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.415,-1.006,-0.012 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.405,-0.945,-0.028 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.367,-0.928,0.034 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.383,-0.769,-0.125 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.361,-0.87,0.005 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.271,-0.684,0.036 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.27,-0.684,0.038 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.019,-0.064,0.018 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.714,1.0,0.041,0.015,0.069 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.096,-0.069,0.206 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.33,0.113,0.521 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.791,0.274,0.938 +AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.546,0.695 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.571,0.713 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.701,-0.999,-0.397 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.976,-0.371 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.638,-0.945,-0.341 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.813,-0.309 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.566,-0.87,-0.285 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.433,-0.671,-0.209 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.286,-0.043,-0.074,-0.015 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.13,-0.601,0.243 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.14,-0.038,0.335 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.083,-0.124,0.234 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.683,0.188,0.925 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.548,0.288,0.687 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.454,0.665 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.253,-0.374,-0.152 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.244,-0.405,-0.134 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.21,-0.312,-0.137 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.224,-0.588,-0.052 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.366,-0.095 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.126,-0.3,0.005 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.124,-0.296,0.005 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.098,-0.339,0.362 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.115,-0.32,0.375 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.238,-0.28,0.565 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.188,-0.079,0.382 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.704,0.085,0.93 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.6,0.067,0.776 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.623,0.311,0.761 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.645,-1.824,0.011 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.633,-1.777,0.001 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.589,-1.799,0.054 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.607,-1.589,-0.099 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.583,-1.658,0.029 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.478,-1.434,0.072 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.476,-1.434,0.073 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.184,-0.538,0.043 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.162,-0.504,0.037 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-0.313,-1.297,0.219 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.066,-0.477,0.204 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.667,0.167,1.0,0.654,0.026,0.921 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.475,0.209,0.627 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.354,0.614 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.543,-0.975,-0.231 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.93,-0.239 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.491,-0.968,-0.161 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.508,-0.818,-0.295 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.485,-0.849,-0.211 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.387,-0.746,-0.116 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.385,-0.746,-0.115 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.111,-0.314,0.086 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.091,-0.306,0.11 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.232,-0.619,0.073 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.062,-0.256,0.323 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.057,-0.109,0.167 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.084,0.495 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.256,0.936 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.532,0.676 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.556,0.696 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.803,-1.12,-0.532 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.122,-0.461 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.737,-1.043,-0.481 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.628,-0.932,-0.386 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.933,-0.421 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.778,-0.301 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.106,-0.26,0.065 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.06,-0.2,0.098 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.667,0.333,1.0,0.665,0.116,0.923 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,0.507,0.116,0.661 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.536,0.351,0.634 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.037,-15.271,-0.426 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-3.027,-15.358,-0.44 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.931,-15.116,-0.364 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.096,-15.531,-0.563 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.918,-15.088,-0.401 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.679,-13.834,-0.315 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.675,-13.819,-0.31 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.159,-12.225,-0.225 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.159,-12.252,-0.232 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.0,0.667,-2.379,-13.371,-0.093 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.333,0.0,0.833,-1.892,-11.649,-0.027 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.0,0.667,-1.981,-12.033,-0.132 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.26,0.012,0.46 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.778,0.206,0.936 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.53,0.64 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.614,0.55,0.664 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.436,-2.82,-0.586 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.38,-2.827,-0.54 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.346,-2.701,-0.532 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.199,-2.482,-0.457 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.244,-2.536,-0.463 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.052,-2.216,-0.369 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.494,-1.086,-0.127 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.432,-0.982,-0.092 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.351,-0.851,-0.012 +AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.709,0.014,0.907 +AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.276,0.575 +AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.316,0.596 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.206,-22.787,-1.121 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.041,-22.595,-1.017 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.978,-22.199,-1.005 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.785,-22.0,-0.955 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.741,-21.621,-0.902 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.386,-21.067,-0.793 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.792,-15.18,-0.376 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-14.743,-0.344 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.515,-14.714,-0.259 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.44,-9.777,-0.015 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.807,-8.666,0.454 -AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.333,1.0,-0.675,-8.314,0.436 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.133,-4.611,-0.475 -Drift,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.11,-4.46,-0.507 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.027,-4.414,-0.378 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.061,-3.816,-0.695 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.014,-4.284,-0.47 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.815,-3.923,-0.365 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.812,-3.923,-0.36 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.256,-2.387,-0.39 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.214,-2.191,-0.405 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.501,-3.469,-0.072 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.5,-0.905,-1.681,-0.264 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.03,-1.948,-0.132 -Drift,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.446,-0.833,0.897 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.167,0.0,0.5,0.058,-0.083,0.268 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.325,-4.17,-0.994 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.3,-4.031,-1.035 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.212,-4.075,-0.867 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.248,-3.474,-1.286 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-2.199,-3.87,-0.984 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.987,-3.6,-0.818 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.984,-3.6,-0.812 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.394,-2.135,-0.823 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.35,-1.984,-0.831 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.5,-1.654,-3.189,-0.451 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-1.589,-0.549 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.154,-1.731,-0.541 -Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.0,0.667,0.403,-0.772,0.893 -Naive,Drift,0.833,0.5,1.0,-0.061,-0.366,0.077 +AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.172,-7.111,0.408 +AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.082,-6.896,0.433 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.415,-4.522,-2.508 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.313,-4.533,-2.371 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.252,-4.38,-2.317 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.985,-3.944,-2.212 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.067,-4.197,-2.134 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.72,-3.631,-1.992 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.284,-1.203 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.596,-2.091,-1.136 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-1.777,-1.126 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.353,-0.382 +Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.54,-0.69,0.877 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-4.925,-2.692 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.563,-4.855,-2.551 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.499,-4.779,-2.453 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.216,-4.258,-2.402 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.303,-4.59,-2.253 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.935,-3.9,-2.148 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.864,-2.486,-1.33 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.747,-2.291,-1.255 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.59,-1.972,-1.221 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.918,-1.476,-0.462 +Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.52,-0.765,0.873 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 284ecd5776a268ea7001a1208214c531431be107..ea525ad20f89e563a3a015d1dcd3009a50a72830 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.75510204081634,30.497126962065213,0.0,1.2207885477272729,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,87.75510204081634,28.929993008935707,0.0,0.22086016883116882,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.3877551020408,27.897712615827363,0.0,3.029942118181818,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061223,26.1953757312394,0.0,0.2863284199134199,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.204081632653065,23.116505027318457,0.0,22.23460966136364,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,54.08163265306123,19.483181611552936,0.0,326.0961104430194,0.0,14.285714285714285 -TabPFN-TS,53.06122448979591,24.364747788672158,0.0,82.75914924545454,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.53061224489795,21.62561301743583,0.0,0.30303544404761906,0.42857142857142855,0.0 -Sundial-Base,51.02040816326531,21.824543473624225,0.0,8.178181660238096,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,46.93877551020408,20.695726985214247,0.0,3.516469010952381,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.734693877551024,16.580678081858668,0.0,45.50572387840909,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoETS,34.69387755102041,-12.099205356952947,0.0,7.976041772727273,0.0,0.0 -Drift,26.530612244897956,7.623192159303982,0.0,0.9546919150000002,0.0,0.0 -Naive,16.3265306122449,5.632467591646206,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,8.16326530612245,0.0,0.0,0.9169890385714287,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,32.667973146499854,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,85.71428571428574,29.26035003209091,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,75.0,28.93605729975306,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571429,29.39415793791812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,65.71428571428571,27.758201124904257,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,27.39923273556282,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 +Sundial-Base,64.28571428571426,27.294413131182793,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,17.869279200778998,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 +TabPFN-TS,44.28571428571429,23.16876937964092,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,41.42857142857142,21.542038855355507,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,28.571428571428577,13.898849494465237,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 +AutoETS,25.714285714285722,-29.62269544506979,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.0,7.79560161047943,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.85714285714286,4.07870004962435,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,8.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 7497407307d3bbf467608f137d477694b3ea36a5..b5539aed90e1af1cf3776701f7075e0fa7fa4e6d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.85714285714288,36.382587745113646,0.0,1.2207885477272729,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,91.83673469387756,35.0706905436059,0.0,0.22086016883116882,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,70.40816326530611,33.26259738148211,0.0,3.029942118181818,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,69.89795918367346,31.785831178509618,0.0,0.2863284199134199,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.32653061224491,30.553466306238843,0.0,82.75914924545454,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,62.24489795918367,29.92819999698506,0.0,22.23460966136364,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.61224489795919,27.592638035700944,0.0,0.30303544404761906,0.42857142857142855,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,52.04081632653062,16.34131324477024,0.0,326.0961104430194,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoARIMA,44.89795918367347,18.654282393699383,0.0,45.50572387840909,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Sundial-Base,42.85714285714285,22.97655424697571,0.0,8.178181660238096,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,28.57142857142857,-100.14545865598201,0.0,7.976041772727273,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.530612244897956,2.844580213482706,0.0,3.516469010952381,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.346938775510203,0.0,0.0,0.9169890385714287,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.3265306122449,-14.734289645185616,0.0,0.9546919150000002,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.244897959183671,-16.315361039765854,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,40.14261348186017,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,88.57142857142858,37.438763337724154,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,77.14285714285715,37.18832201208502,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,75.00000000000001,36.03582794812101,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.85714285714286,34.853090715125255,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 +Toto-1.0,67.14285714285715,35.98014019395901,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.999999999999986,32.14384784602691,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,52.85714285714286,30.909915121590082,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,13.94260028599177,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 +AutoARIMA,38.57142857142858,17.778704714011372,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 +AutoETS,27.142857142857153,-136.42889695356527,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,20.0,-2.8417921456300954,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,20.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.85714285714286,-23.56398392435097,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.2857142857142865,-28.213326844738162,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index b6edb98b2d4389bbb397ea4af0f124bc7e783f1c..d34e8c72620be7ccaa9b98a25361344c7398e0b6 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,79.59183673469387,40.186105154065274,0.0,0.22086016883116882,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,78.57142857142857,40.705400799173944,0.0,1.2207885477272729,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,72.44897959183673,39.71301301045573,0.0,3.029942118181818,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,71.42857142857142,38.015338187520356,0.0,22.23460966136364,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.79591836734696,37.474958160131976,0.0,0.2863284199134199,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.244897959183675,37.3159595613183,0.0,82.75914924545454,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,53.06122448979591,23.729471306196494,0.0,326.0961104430194,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Moirai-2.0,50.51020408163266,33.75926497739168,0.0,0.30303544404761906,0.42857142857142855,0.0 -AutoTheta,46.938775510204074,32.22717023498179,0.0,3.516469010952381,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,42.857142857142854,1.699868730786347,0.0,7.976041772727273,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.71428571428573,8.157108575448458,0.0,45.50572387840909,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Sundial-Base,35.71428571428572,25.06871812266033,0.0,8.178181660238096,0.0,0.0 -Drift,25.510204081632647,15.503053940810641,0.0,0.9546919150000002,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.40816326530612,18.858044072466562,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.20408163265306,0.0,0.0,0.9169890385714287,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,87.14285714285714,47.03832907322194,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,81.42857142857144,45.265501615714086,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,80.0,45.61982323609455,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.71428571428572,45.23435046646812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,73.57142857142857,44.27099700478807,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.42857142857143,43.560110598131054,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.14285714285714,41.536751954528484,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,42.85714285714287,37.25192023085951,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,42.857142857142854,32.159160649999954,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,41.428571428571445,24.4398588876512,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 +AutoETS,32.85714285714286,-7.089562721947629,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 +Naive,24.28571428571429,25.36480685722543,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,21.428571428571427,2.7732156741662517,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 +Drift,12.857142857142856,15.77773764677779,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 2740fb454b74ec107b2a90a12f011762af7bc6df..eed2f91d23116d2a586feab37cd071153220dde3 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,83.67346938775509,55.845887240463945,0.0,0.22086016883116882,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.63265306122449,56.29067190301464,0.0,1.2207885477272729,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.51020408163265,55.93935384077703,0.0,3.029942118181818,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,73.46938775510203,54.33015876380617,0.0,22.23460966136364,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,71.9387755102041,53.88724931110583,0.0,0.2863284199134199,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.36734693877553,54.38713321564093,0.0,82.75914924545454,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,55.61224489795919,51.33483781629431,0.0,0.30303544404761906,0.42857142857142855,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,53.06122448979592,15.451233242065076,0.0,326.0961104430194,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoARIMA,48.979591836734706,20.43246116076548,0.0,45.50572387840909,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Sundial-Base,38.775510204081634,41.11912582586918,0.0,8.178181660238096,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,29.59183673469387,-93.15158001036382,0.0,7.976041772727273,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.46938775510204,-9.985676915157615,0.0,3.516469010952381,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,22.448979591836736,0.0,0.0,0.9169890385714287,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.244897959183671,-38.89991385039795,0.0,0.9546919150000002,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.224489795918368,-39.372276784080775,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,65.09181820346713,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,65.02250890387694,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,80.00000000000001,64.38827870406145,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,80.0,63.90155569021483,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,75.0,63.277941068455476,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,72.14285714285714,62.94483721241358,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.85714285714283,62.612284025823264,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,48.57142857142857,52.74866339373276,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,42.85714285714287,13.563254966732108,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 +AutoARIMA,40.0,21.289551980691435,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 +AutoETS,25.71428571428572,-162.51813043287368,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,25.71428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,15.714285714285717,-21.431026747836324,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.0,-59.16477242087295,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.857142857142857,-65.48141501493944,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv index 846bdf8f64f2ecf69c8e360246908adfe6e4395d..94b6f57952a7e441a67d67a51670154b2993254a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.022,-0.026,0.067 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.036,-0.006,0.077 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.025,0.085 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.096,0.023,0.177 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.137,0.043,0.249 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.081,0.015,0.138 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,0.042,0.192 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.054,0.161 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.124,0.074,0.169 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.069,0.271 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.092,0.666 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.248,0.149,0.335 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.185,0.334 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.228,0.366 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.072,0.025 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.005,0.089 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.053,0.015,0.087 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.096 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.024,0.124 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.024,0.118 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.027,0.116 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.066,0.314 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.076,0.155 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.1,0.196 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.121,0.333 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.137,0.781 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.18,0.35 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.207,0.379 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.263,0.388 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.005 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.014,-0.028,0.045 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,-0.005,0.088 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.076,-0.005,0.187 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.117,0.034,0.21 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.06,0.031,0.092 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.015,0.201 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.091,0.017,0.162 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.104,0.042,0.159 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.082,0.227 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.366,0.082,0.652 -TiRex,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.231,0.144,0.31 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.162,0.325 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.211,0.364 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.037,-0.084,0.006 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.015,-0.047,0.027 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.023,-0.03,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.062,-0.007,0.162 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.105,-0.005,0.227 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,-0.007,0.103 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.08,-0.001,0.179 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.078,0.006,0.139 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.091,0.018,0.148 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.136,0.042,0.246 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.357,0.046,0.646 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.219,0.122,0.292 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.165,0.302 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.183,0.362 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.062,-0.093,-0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.038,-0.096,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.024,-0.077,0.029 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.016,0.023 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.053,0.035 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.028,0.066 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.026,0.004,0.054 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,-0.0,0.055 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.139,0.038,0.264 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.058,0.112 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.098,0.035,0.158 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.272 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.454,0.08,0.77 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.143,0.307 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.174,0.336 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.222,0.364 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.095,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.024,0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.04,-0.024,0.115 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.083,-0.01,0.191 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.049,0.08 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,0.929,0.058,0.01,0.126 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,0.015,0.106 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.069,0.019,0.12 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.115,0.018,0.215 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.342,0.033,0.644 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.201,0.097,0.296 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.146,0.287 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.19,0.325 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.106,-0.216,-0.023 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.082,-0.23,0.005 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.066,-0.194,0.007 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.042,-0.13,0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.064,0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.034,0.074 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.021,0.0,0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.002,0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.135,0.035,0.262 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.054,0.096 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.038,0.147 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.106,0.27 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.452,0.092,0.768 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.131,0.311 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.165,0.342 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.231,0.351 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.106,0.001 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.037,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.06 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,0.004,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.068 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.029,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.14,0.001,0.301 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.032,0.13 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.1,0.026,0.153 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.075,0.308 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.455,0.061,0.769 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.178,0.286 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.206,0.317 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.196,0.38 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.141,-0.025 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.07,0.027 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.017,-0.08,0.033 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.039,-0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.045,-0.131,0.204 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.017,-0.179,0.083 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.019,-0.027,0.054 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.072,0.097 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.031,-0.075,0.11 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.078,-0.093,0.222 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.314,-0.082,0.635 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.168,0.047,0.265 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.131,0.246 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.138,0.317 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.158,-0.332,-0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.133,-0.265,-0.036 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.117,-0.293,0.005 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.091,-0.236,0.01 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.047,-0.257,0.116 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.065,-0.185,0.034 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.027,-0.211,0.122 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.03,-0.195,0.098 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,-0.015,-0.159,0.063 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.035,-0.0,0.071 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.282,-0.034,0.607 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.128,-0.031,0.253 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.147,-0.032,0.269 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.195,0.11,0.286 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.088,-0.16,-0.016 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.064,-0.101,-0.033 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.114,0.007 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.025,-0.087,0.046 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.016,-0.09,0.152 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.061,-0.035,0.156 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.035,-0.072,0.161 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.032,-0.071,0.134 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.046,-0.026,0.118 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.093,0.029,0.17 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.325,0.026,0.631 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.181,0.088,0.266 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.097,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.171,0.314 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.128,-0.237,-0.044 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.252,-0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.087,-0.217,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.071,0.429,-0.062,-0.144,-0.01 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.019,-0.057,0.026 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.027,-0.139,0.175 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.036,-0.191,0.067 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.05,0.053 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.063,0.06 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.12,-0.031,0.28 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.009,0.111 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.079,-0.01,0.149 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.045,0.292 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.443,0.023,0.768 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.157,0.276 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.185,0.308 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.18,0.365 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.057,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.022,-0.044,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.072,0.016 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.056,0.048 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.074,0.058 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.012,-0.083,0.093 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.06,-0.106,0.197 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.301,-0.089,0.62 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.152,0.014,0.269 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.101,0.243 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.12,0.308 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.125,-0.192,-0.057 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.1,-0.193,-0.018 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.161,-0.006 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.118,-0.015 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.108,0.067 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.029,-0.109,0.163 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.034,-0.155,0.067 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.062,0.069 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.02,0.027 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.116,0.011,0.247 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.055,0.015,0.089 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.023,0.127 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.157,0.091,0.259 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.44,0.072,0.758 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.282 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.165,0.314 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.192,0.348 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.131,-0.028 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.028,-0.058,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.047,0.002 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.028 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.063,0.059 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.027,0.02 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.014,-0.089,0.087 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.063,-0.074,0.185 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.303,-0.051,0.619 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.154,0.001,0.274 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.172,0.073,0.259 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.218,0.1,0.309 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.141,-0.203,-0.08 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.116,-0.189,-0.044 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.1,-0.174,-0.019 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.075,-0.136,-0.019 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.031,-0.124,0.069 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,0.015,-0.067,0.137 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.049,-0.133,0.026 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.012,-0.102,0.077 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.014,-0.096,0.081 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.115,0.028,0.239 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.054,0.012,0.097 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.031,0.114 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.091,0.251 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.439,0.081,0.757 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.125,0.295 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.155,0.324 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.344 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.459,-0.071 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.161,-0.359,-0.039 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.156,-0.354,-0.036 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.163,-0.431,-0.001 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.137,-0.389,0.03 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.131,-0.328,-0.011 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.13,-0.314,-0.029 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.069,-0.271,0.059 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.047,-0.246,0.043 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.089 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.366,-0.049,0.726 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.109,-0.149,0.275 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.144,-0.11,0.307 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.179,0.074,0.286 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.183,-0.082 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.126,-0.062 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.106,-0.057 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.149,-0.033 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.009 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.058,-0.097,-0.016 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.057,-0.108,-0.012 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.065,-0.063,0.213 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.021,-0.056,0.092 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.108,0.017,0.215 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.407,0.014,0.752 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.059,0.257 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.09,0.29 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.169,0.289 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.243,-0.112 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.109,-0.187,-0.036 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.173,-0.04 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.111,-0.18,-0.027 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.086,-0.175,0.01 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.146,-0.024 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.128,-0.032 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.045,-0.044,0.197 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.021,-0.101,0.053 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.049,-0.048,0.167 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.293,-0.013,0.601 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.142,0.066,0.229 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.089,0.232 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.135,0.276 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.372,-0.074 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.294,-0.089 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.157,-0.326,-0.044 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.13,-0.275,-0.018 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.085,-0.285,0.085 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.036,-0.076,0.0 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.103,-0.204,-0.03 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.064,-0.245,0.096 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.067,-0.227,0.069 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.201,0.045 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.089,-0.018,0.224 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.395,0.04,0.727 +AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.059,0.244 +AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.096,0.277 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.115,0.304 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.5,-0.138 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.374,-0.115 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.37,-0.118 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.445,-0.081 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.412,-0.048 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.186,-0.349,-0.1 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.184,-0.335,-0.1 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.048,-0.098,0.001 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.121,-0.274,-0.017 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.289,0.018 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.256,-0.074,0.59 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.097,-0.053,0.207 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.116,-0.06,0.238 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.166,0.08,0.26 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-1.993,-0.101 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.577,-1.874,-0.089 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.555,-1.828,-0.048 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.519,-1.806,-0.034 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.458,-1.738,0.076 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.392,-1.546,0.033 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.482,-1.711,-0.027 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.43,-1.633,0.082 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.434,-1.623,0.049 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.414,-1.504,0.013 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.344,-1.441,0.069 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.336,-0.108,0.712 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,-0.165,0.208 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.102,-0.112,0.239 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.139,0.042,0.235 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.925,-3.56,-0.159 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.832,-3.354,-0.087 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.824,-3.308,-0.102 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.836,-3.32,-0.065 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.794,-3.308,-0.023 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.785,-3.132,-0.077 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.783,-3.107,-0.088 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.578,-2.653,0.047 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.687,-3.038,-0.014 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.652,-2.668,-0.041 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.505,-2.472,0.097 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.213,-1.059,0.185 -AutoETS,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.188,-1.084,0.218 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,-0.121,-1.109,0.231 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.329,-0.503,-0.176 -Drift,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.3,-0.449,-0.169 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.281,-0.412,-0.138 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.252,-0.42,-0.107 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.202,-0.361,-0.049 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.147,-0.339,0.03 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.221,-0.362,-0.096 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.179,-0.368,-0.014 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.182,-0.378,-0.001 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.165,-0.297,-0.07 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.107,-0.261,0.05 -Drift,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.176,-0.226,0.514 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.021,-0.043,0.093 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.076,-0.076,0.197 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.502,-0.227 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.481,-0.193 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.432,-0.198 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.402,-0.171 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.227,-0.327,-0.15 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.172,-0.369,0.031 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.41,-0.108 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.322,-0.112 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.207,-0.349,-0.078 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.301,-0.098 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.131,-0.312,0.057 -Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.158,-0.278,0.52 -Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.022,-0.102,0.042 +AutoETS,Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.406,-2.121,0.194 +AutoETS,Drift,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.351,-2.001,0.23 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.296,-2.14,0.211 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.538,-0.219 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.451,-0.151 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.4,-0.217 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.381,-0.186 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.392,-0.151 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.419,-0.143 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.123,-0.379,0.13 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.345,-0.063 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.322,-0.063 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.263,0.142 +Naive,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.289,-0.24,0.68 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.056,-0.071,0.183 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.439,-0.578,-0.295 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.572,-0.267 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.387,-0.568,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.482,-0.234 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.301,-0.464,-0.16 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.242,-0.401,-0.123 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.459,-0.206 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.444,-0.137 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.279,-0.446,-0.112 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.382,-0.156 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.199,-0.352,-0.087 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,0.108,-0.3,0.526 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.083,-0.245,0.071 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.06,-0.224,0.066 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.026,0.046 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.078,-0.115,0.244 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.61,-0.261 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.506,-0.211 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.519,-0.198 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.465,-0.26 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.445,-0.227 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.458,-0.198 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.319,-0.48,-0.183 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.168,-0.443,0.099 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.408,-0.099 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.384,-0.106 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.114,-0.314,0.101 +Drift,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.26,-0.298,0.667 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.048,-0.027 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.168,0.219 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.633,-0.357 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.572,-0.285 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.541,-0.3 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.612,-0.244 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.384,-0.575,-0.22 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.534,-0.238 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.525,-0.251 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.218,-0.4,-0.08 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.406,-0.203 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.437,-0.13 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.161,-0.307,-0.044 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.229,-0.268,0.682 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.085,-0.323,0.104 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.043,-0.28,0.144 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv index 9ea209905ea5becf110eb904ccc1a407fec2384d..439fe51a458665716073ae96eef164830e7a8125 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.025,0.063 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.047,0.009,0.083 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.067,0.026,0.106 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.084,0.031,0.128 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.025,0.167 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.121,0.041,0.203 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.097,0.36 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.112,0.33 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.12,0.228 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.656,0.251,0.896 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.186,0.467 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.281,0.428 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.286,0.562 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.332,0.546 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.067,0.025 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.001,0.081 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.001,0.095 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.122 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.081,0.019,0.139 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.021,0.121 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.143 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.097,0.169 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.141,0.433 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.161,0.393 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.259,0.947 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.258,0.535 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.327,0.459 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.431,0.6 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.447,0.617 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.089,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.027,-0.019,0.062 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.048,0.007,0.093 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.043,0.094 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.073,-0.001,0.174 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.027,0.207 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.224,0.102,0.336 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.121,0.296 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.157,0.086,0.227 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.653,0.245,0.896 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.193,0.443 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.272,0.416 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.285,0.54 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.335,0.53 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.049,-0.091,-0.009 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.028,-0.066,0.019 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.048,0.043 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.007,0.049 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.066 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.025,0.069 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.056,0.109 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.065,0.123 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.126,0.395 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.146,0.351 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.217,0.947 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.245,0.505 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.434 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.414,0.575 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.429,0.592 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.105,0.001 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.045,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.022,-0.039,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.039,-0.017,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,-0.01,0.127 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.078,-0.008,0.171 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.202,0.049,0.339 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.18,0.065,0.302 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.075,0.186 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.644,0.214,0.893 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.313,0.142,0.441 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.228,0.415 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.418,0.239,0.54 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.296,0.525 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.072,-0.119,-0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.051,-0.103,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.022,-0.081,0.037 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.092 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.101 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,0.003,0.034 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.029,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.045,0.13 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.27,0.095,0.415 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.111,0.38 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.709,0.198,0.947 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.215,0.523 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.265,0.447 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.396,0.574 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.413,0.592 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.052,0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.101,0.049 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.018,-0.043,0.072 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.027,-0.043,0.101 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,0.929,0.058,0.007,0.126 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.185,0.05,0.301 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.161,0.064,0.258 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.114,0.056,0.174 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.638,0.194,0.893 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.146,0.416 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.24,0.386 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.243,0.522 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.291,0.509 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.092,-0.147,-0.032 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.104,-0.045 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.041,-0.101,0.016 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.018,-0.077,0.041 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.009,-0.086,0.126 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.041,-0.06,0.162 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.17,0.045,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.066,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.098,0.002,0.189 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.633,0.191,0.891 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.151,0.403 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.234,0.365 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.251,0.51 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.296,0.492 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.201,-0.026 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.079,-0.21,0.001 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.05,-0.145,0.01 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.027,-0.112,0.041 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.009,-0.144,0.079 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.032,-0.024,0.079 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.162,-0.048,0.317 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.139,-0.035,0.285 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.09,0.02,0.161 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.626,0.125,0.89 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.279,0.065,0.427 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.182,0.398 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.389,0.191,0.528 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.249,0.512 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.138,-0.255,-0.043 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.261,-0.028 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.085,-0.206,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.071,0.429,-0.061,-0.144,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.043,-0.193,0.056 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.033,-0.086,0.023 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,0.0,0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.078,0.075 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.09 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.025,0.114 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.129,0.366 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.148,0.314 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.221,0.947 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.249,0.485 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.291,0.411 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.406,0.562 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.422,0.579 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.088,-0.161,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.07,-0.011 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.112,0.024 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.037,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.134,-0.076,0.282 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.11,-0.066,0.245 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.06,-0.009,0.127 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.618,0.116,0.888 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.255,0.047,0.399 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.161,0.375 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.369,0.156,0.507 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.217,0.493 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.563,-0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.288,-0.506,-0.114 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.254,-0.513,-0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.226,-0.432,-0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.205,-0.41,-0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.194,-0.464,0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.155,-0.393,0.071 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.09,0.05 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.04,-0.002,0.081 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.1 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.243,0.114,0.353 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.208,0.128,0.307 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.201,0.947 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.232,0.47 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.271,0.409 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.396,0.548 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.412,0.566 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.138,-0.021 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.074,0.024 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.035,-0.003 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.081,0.073 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.053,0.083 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.106 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.015,0.116 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.256,0.07,0.405 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.221,0.086,0.367 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.703,0.17,0.947 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.377,0.192,0.514 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.241,0.436 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.38,0.569 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.398,0.588 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.167,-0.083 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.123,-0.06 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.134,-0.03 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.099,-0.016 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.088,0.002 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.06,-0.118,0.002 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.034,0.06 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.212,0.042,0.347 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.063,0.298 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.689,0.159,0.945 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.182,0.468 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.242,0.372 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.357,0.535 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.375,0.554 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.204,-0.107 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.14,-0.07 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.1,-0.149,-0.047 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.129,-0.025 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.111,-0.017 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.131,-0.016 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.063,0.033 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.197,0.033,0.333 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.055,0.285 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.688,0.16,0.945 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.165,0.457 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.223,0.39 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.364,0.517 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.382,0.539 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.765,-0.164 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.653,-0.145 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.37,-0.71,-0.105 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.577,-0.148 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.321,-0.545,-0.129 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.344,-0.681,-0.075 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.268,-0.532,-0.044 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.246,-0.5,-0.035 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.714,-0.028,-0.116,0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.086,-0.327,0.118 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.589,0.09,0.885 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.093,0.182 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.163,0.058,0.26 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.166,0.371 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.207,0.351 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.494,-0.127 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.253,-0.42,-0.138 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.219,-0.434,-0.07 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.193,-0.347,-0.068 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.171,-0.319,-0.071 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.161,-0.4,0.033 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.123,-0.325,0.062 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.286,0.929,0.028,-0.04,0.104 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.047,-0.183,0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.089,0.941 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.118,0.21 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.139,-0.004,0.262 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.201,0.379 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.224,0.406 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.647,-0.191 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.54,-0.171 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.612,-0.125 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.459,-0.173 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.262,-0.444,-0.147 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.284,-0.579,-0.094 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.425,-0.067 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.399,-0.059 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.045,-0.049,0.155 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.056,-0.263,0.103 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.585,0.08,0.883 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.163,0.065,0.254 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.187,0.1,0.269 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.291,0.164,0.404 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.199,0.395 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.211,-0.295,-0.137 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.186,-0.294,-0.094 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.228,-0.081 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.129,-0.21,-0.06 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.109,-0.233,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.099,-0.192,-0.021 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.064,-0.146,0.009 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.079,-0.134,0.247 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.053,-0.115,0.208 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.597,0.102,0.882 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.207,-0.021,0.369 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.23,0.092,0.339 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.329,0.092,0.484 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.338,0.15,0.464 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.908,-8.587,-0.336 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.882,-8.575,-0.325 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.81,-8.326,-0.273 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.759,-8.369,-0.241 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.723,-8.173,-0.237 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-1.673,-8.072,-0.143 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.618,-7.942,-0.131 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.434,-7.693,-0.099 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.409,-7.564,-0.087 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.714,-1.481,-7.453,-0.114 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.642,0.062,0.941 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.201,0.087,0.317 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.178,0.076,0.269 +AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.21,0.441 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.238,0.463 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.538,-17.795,-0.35 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.44,-17.904,-0.278 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.436,-17.805,-0.247 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.391,-17.776,-0.283 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.363,-17.776,-0.252 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.366,-17.702,-0.205 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.219,-17.076,-0.19 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.207,-17.119,-0.19 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-15.878,-0.098 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.791,-15.965,-0.066 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,-1.164,-7.054,0.053 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.861,-1.001,-6.709,0.153 -AutoETS,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.903,-6.375,0.23 -AutoETS,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.864,-6.246,0.242 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.527,-0.877,-0.228 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.795,-0.239 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.456,-0.79,-0.165 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.713,-0.172 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.675,-0.177 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.387,-0.746,-0.069 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.342,-0.664,-0.05 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.223,-0.102 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.194,-0.341,-0.07 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.261,-0.584,0.02 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.538,-0.056,0.876 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.464,-14.889,0.062 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.364,-14.138,0.138 +AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.141,-13.92,0.256 +AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.083,-13.686,0.286 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.718,-1.152,-0.347 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.644,-1.02,-0.324 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-1.095,-0.274 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.941,-0.332 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.887,-0.303 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.606,-1.056,-0.237 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.516,-0.879,-0.222 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.489,-0.842,-0.197 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.265,-0.134 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.251,-0.464,-0.095 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.594,-0.066,0.937 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.028,-0.11,0.146 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.153,0.039,0.267 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.165,0.062,0.256 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.749,-0.391 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.54,-0.714,-0.373 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.498,-0.709,-0.295 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.629,-0.316 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.574,-0.306 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.66,-0.222 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.381,-0.6,-0.193 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.195,-0.351,-0.062 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.229,-0.369,-0.111 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.298,-0.513,-0.101 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.139,0.714,0.5,-0.18,0.87 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.029,-0.171,0.099 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.028,-0.202,0.12 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.168,0.021,0.281 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.198,0.049,0.314 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.848,-0.486 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.768,-0.404 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.807,-0.36 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.563,-0.699,-0.411 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.692,-0.371 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.773,-0.317 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.593,-0.319 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.639,-0.286 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.162,-0.355,0.004 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.216,-0.368,-0.082 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.577,-0.16,0.934 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.137,0.168 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.128,-0.048,0.276 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.14,0.006,0.261 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.804,-1.284,-0.4 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.175,-0.398 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.719,-1.175,-0.314 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.092,-0.321 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-1.041,-0.334 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.637,-1.118,-0.236 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.585,-1.029,-0.186 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.371,-0.591,-0.199 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.41,-0.678,-0.195 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.49,-0.937,-0.101 -Drift,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.474,-0.299,0.864 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.181,-0.365,-0.041 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.147,-0.382,0.046 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.041,0.071 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.828,-1.202,-0.496 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.791,-1.128,-0.503 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.743,-1.103,-0.421 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.705,-1.037,-0.411 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.675,-0.97,-0.42 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.66,-1.05,-0.332 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.974,-0.277 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.39,-0.54,-0.261 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.653,-0.249 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.51,-0.867,-0.177 -Naive,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.464,-0.32,0.862 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.197,-0.345,-0.066 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.163,-0.354,-0.006 -Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.076,0.04 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.191,0.023,0.331 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.22,0.045,0.362 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.064,-1.497,-0.756 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.352,-0.706 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.967,-1.345,-0.655 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.282,-0.683 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.215,-0.655 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.93,-1.321,-0.614 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.821,-1.152,-0.556 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.788,-1.071,-0.571 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.61,-0.252 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.79,-0.267 +Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.533,-0.345,0.933 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.201,-0.391,-0.021 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.236,-0.496,-0.024 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.023,0.046 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.142,-1.61,-0.808 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.449,-0.753 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.451,-0.704 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.004,-1.377,-0.729 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.968,-1.306,-0.701 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.426,-0.662 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.889,-1.241,-0.6 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.856,-1.169,-0.618 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.685,-0.288 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.864,-0.312 +Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.52,-0.401,0.932 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.247,-0.458,-0.051 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.282,-0.567,-0.048 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.048,-0.023 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 3b2c12964e50546b8037d97b658846366031a2d7..ab72a41d924bb16897202c76d002e92572f240ed 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.571,0.143,0.861,-0.009,-0.051,0.03 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.022,0.032 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.035,-0.048,0.13 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.043,0.001,0.09 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.046,0.019,0.074 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.216,0.043,0.416 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.097,0.017,0.207 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.117,0.045,0.188 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.392,0.087,0.672 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.349,0.103,0.553 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.202,0.1,0.305 -TiRex,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.292,0.171,0.381 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.206,0.317 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.228,0.55 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.429,0.139,0.857,0.009,-0.031,0.049 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.016,-0.03,0.065 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.043,-0.043,0.133 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.052,0.015,0.084 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.054,-0.002,0.104 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.223,0.053,0.418 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.105,0.028,0.193 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.125,0.055,0.185 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.397,0.081,0.688 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.354,0.111,0.553 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.209,0.124,0.298 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.298,0.156,0.402 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.202,0.329 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.237,0.545 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.008,-0.033,0.022 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.017,-0.069,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.027,-0.036,0.112 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.036,-0.019,0.09 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.038,-0.001,0.083 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.21,0.021,0.429 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.004,0.19 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.11,0.031,0.181 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.387,0.063,0.672 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.344,0.082,0.547 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.195,0.083,0.298 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.287,0.153,0.393 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.204,0.301 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.211,0.545 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.036,-0.15,0.046 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.045,-0.154,0.042 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.028,-0.126,0.034 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.008,0.069 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.026,-0.059,0.112 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.03,0.091 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.01,0.084 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.062,0.015,0.106 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.059,0.123 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.106,0.207 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.105,0.34 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.119,0.515 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.142,0.803 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.225,0.347 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.196,0.651 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.301,0.439 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.277,0.613 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.074,0.008 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.07,0.05 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.044,0.032 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.055 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,0.002,0.06 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.043,0.09 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.062,0.196 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.193,0.054,0.34 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.276,0.057,0.511 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.489,0.099,0.792 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.219,0.303 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.152,0.648 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.287,0.421 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.224,0.614 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.027,-0.126,0.056 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.053,0.066 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.009,-0.071,0.085 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.011,-0.12,0.102 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.187,-0.041,0.432 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,-0.008,0.123 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.085,-0.014,0.171 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.369,-0.015,0.67 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.325,0.019,0.551 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.173,0.024,0.299 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.266,0.128,0.388 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.187,0.276 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.169,0.548 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.045,-0.099,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.054,-0.092,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.037,-0.098,0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.009,-0.093,0.066 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.025,0.038 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.07,0.117 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,-0.046,0.124 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.07,0.009,0.134 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.133,0.026,0.21 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.198,0.016,0.364 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.28,0.021,0.54 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.492,0.069,0.794 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.254,0.288 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.441,0.118,0.658 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.285,0.456 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.212,0.632 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.1,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.034,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.04,0.025 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.042,0.095 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.029,0.101 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.063,0.029,0.107 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.127,0.039,0.206 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.193,0.04,0.341 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.275,0.033,0.533 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.489,0.089,0.791 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.233,0.292 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.139,0.646 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.266,0.446 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.216,0.62 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.092,-0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.059,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.133,0.065 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.105,0.041 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.003,-0.065,0.062 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.18,0.002,0.384 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,0.929,0.056,0.005,0.13 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,0.007,0.147 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.364,0.035,0.664 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.319,0.058,0.542 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.166,0.075,0.273 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.26,0.127,0.359 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.168,0.288 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.197,0.528 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.048,-0.08,-0.019 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.057,-0.116,0.002 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.04,-0.091,0.001 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.011,-0.114,0.107 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.003,-0.066,0.061 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.178,0.01,0.379 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.054,-0.05,0.18 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.075,0.002,0.149 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.362,0.048,0.659 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.317,0.08,0.519 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.163,0.057,0.255 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.258,0.151,0.346 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.166,0.294 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.205,0.517 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.275,-0.713,-0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.286,-0.717,-0.056 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.265,-0.751,-0.021 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.23,-0.76,0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.22,-0.624,-0.002 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.217,-0.611,-0.01 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.151,-0.606,0.1 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.125,-0.499,0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.224,-0.318,0.631 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.17,0.016,0.382 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.018,-0.315,0.165 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.097,-0.096,0.244 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,-0.311,0.244 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.237,0.112,0.389 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.107,-0.261,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.117,-0.239,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.235,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.069,-0.14,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.071,0.429,-0.059,-0.149,-0.005 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.057,-0.22,0.048 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.132,-0.111,0.378 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,0.0,0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,0.009,0.086 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.045,0.179 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.057,0.325 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.072,0.481 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.48,0.113,0.787 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.175,0.308 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.154,0.639 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.286,0.398 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.234,0.607 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.066,-0.119,-0.015 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.064,-0.002 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.038,-0.141,0.044 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.112,0.028 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.026,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.023,-0.097,0.13 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.326,-0.08,0.648 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.279,-0.04,0.528 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.116,-0.021,0.248 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.216,0.042,0.351 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.184,0.095,0.265 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.338,0.123,0.517 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.133,-0.231,-0.047 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.143,-0.226,-0.058 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.124,-0.221,-0.032 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.093,-0.207,0.014 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.173,-0.007 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.081,-0.175,-0.002 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.111,-0.053,0.333 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.023,-0.15,0.088 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.035,0.001,0.076 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.027,0.179 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.168,0.033,0.319 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.253,0.051,0.481 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.473,0.1,0.782 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.173,0.294 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.137,0.639 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.276,0.39 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.216,0.604 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.141,-0.063 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.099,-0.045 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.075,-0.155,-0.009 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.12,-0.03 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.094,-0.009 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.036,-0.082,-0.001 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.068,-0.003,0.154 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.138,0.01,0.274 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.226,0.006,0.473 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.454,0.046,0.781 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.157,0.269 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.111,0.613 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.22,0.385 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.189,0.58 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.185,-0.261,-0.118 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.146,-0.244,-0.066 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.154,-0.266,-0.027 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.146,-0.259,-0.041 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.126,-0.219,-0.047 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.112,-0.218,-0.028 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.073,-0.182,0.003 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.311,-0.014,0.632 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.262,-0.013,0.483 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.096,-0.035,0.212 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.198,0.087,0.312 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.165,0.103,0.227 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.145,0.469 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.643,-2.052,-0.095 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.658,-2.204,-0.088 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.631,-2.048,-0.067 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.586,-2.027,0.015 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.572,-1.98,-0.036 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.568,-1.934,-0.051 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.289,-1.708,0.241 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.484,-1.839,0.074 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.45,-1.715,0.013 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.075,-0.094,0.236 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.17,-0.04,0.439 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.414,0.031,0.756 +AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.08,0.246 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.355,0.02,0.592 +AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.138,0.359 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.124,0.551 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.514,-0.118 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.239,-0.515,-0.058 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.248,-0.572,-0.016 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.239,-0.516,-0.041 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.481,-0.06 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.202,-0.469,-0.034 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.16,-0.378,-0.01 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.081,-0.309,0.086 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.102,-0.154,0.356 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.367,-0.107,0.752 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.091,-0.163,0.262 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.302,0.104,0.465 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.195,-0.036,0.319 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.196,0.44 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-1.06,-0.136 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-1.043,-0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.389,-1.175,-0.022 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-1.143,-0.034 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.928,-0.077 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.339,-0.928,-0.053 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.292,-0.899,-0.006 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.204,-0.783,0.038 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.114,-0.552,0.134 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.294,-0.491,0.752 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.012,-0.576,0.256 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.223,0.017,0.48 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.103,-0.193,0.288 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.079,0.437 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.022,-4.086,-0.165 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.957,-3.819,-0.11 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.969,-3.864,-0.074 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.955,-3.785,-0.098 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.922,-3.687,-0.128 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.897,-3.581,-0.111 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.832,-3.56,-0.049 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.707,-3.104,-0.032 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.579,-3.026,0.096 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.417,-3.027,0.329 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.07,-1.236,0.419 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.312,-1.61,0.14 -AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.163,-1.191,0.239 -AutoETS,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.211,-1.231,0.21 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.017,-1.093,0.418 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.535,-1.237,-0.115 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.549,-1.239,-0.125 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.523,-1.209,-0.09 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.482,-1.229,-0.019 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.469,-1.184,-0.062 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.465,-1.078,-0.087 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.204,-0.619,-0.016 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.387,-1.118,0.038 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.355,-0.933,0.013 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.066,-0.722,0.553 +AutoETS,Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.435,-2.462,0.2 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.101,-2.153,0.506 +AutoETS,Drift,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.272,-2.166,0.294 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.071,-2.122,0.478 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.532,-0.291 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.434,-0.28 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.405,-0.341 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.363,-0.413,-0.304 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.445,-0.212 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.416,-0.209 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.369,-0.186 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.189,-0.326,-0.087 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.1,-0.355,0.14 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.012,-0.344,0.365 +Naive,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.303,-0.249,0.711 +Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.232,-0.216,0.538 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.031,0.248 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.254,-0.107,0.5 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.836,-1.868,-0.243 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-1.839,-0.179 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.788,-1.924,-0.133 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.775,-1.821,-0.161 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.773,-0.182 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.773,-0.159 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.663,-1.583,-0.125 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.549,-1.452,-0.021 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.433,-0.868,-0.116 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.287,-0.923,-0.017 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.092,-1.026,0.683 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.303,-1.164,0.178 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.226,-0.6,0.049 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.087,-0.561,0.178 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.132,-0.67,0.197 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.082,-0.025,0.173 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.253,-0.44,-0.111 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.264,-0.424,-0.142 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.243,-0.425,-0.091 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.209,-0.427,-0.024 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.198,-0.376,-0.081 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.195,-0.342,-0.06 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.018,-0.198,0.239 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.131,-0.33,0.021 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.106,-0.269,0.034 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.238,-0.162,0.617 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.184,-0.052,0.375 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.113,-0.079,0.27 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.077,-0.095,0.217 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.251,0.105,0.384 -Drift,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.413,-0.615,-0.206 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.425,-0.673,-0.185 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.402,-0.647,-0.181 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.363,-0.635,-0.146 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.351,-0.559,-0.146 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.348,-0.528,-0.178 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.108,-0.324,0.088 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.276,-0.541,-0.044 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.247,-0.453,-0.096 -Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.14,-0.314,0.544 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.08,-0.217,0.359 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.128,-0.37,0.073 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.154,-0.935,0.218 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.028,-0.096,0.124 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.781,-0.431 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.727,-0.403 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.549,-0.839,-0.398 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.806,-0.362 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.511,-0.662,-0.4 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.64,-0.381 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.441,-0.627,-0.282 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.56,-0.16 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.241,-0.467,0.035 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.115,-0.405,0.162 +Drift,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.214,-0.417,0.684 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.33,-0.032 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.134,-0.278,0.483 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.041,-0.231,0.077 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.155,-0.058,0.354 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.464,-0.26 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.491,-0.254 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.43,-0.257 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.381,-0.231 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.404,-0.202 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.294,-0.416,-0.199 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.323,0.237 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.225,-0.361,-0.105 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.197,-0.293,-0.114 -Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.175,-0.266,0.552 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.117,-0.246,0.401 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.083,-0.277,0.087 -Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.04,-0.083,0.188 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.189,-0.062,0.396 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.672,-1.224,-0.296 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-1.197,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.659,-1.2,-0.267 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-1.211,-0.204 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.599,-1.121,-0.246 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-1.069,-0.258 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.311,-0.637,-0.127 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.51,-1.071,-0.14 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.884,-0.169 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.017,-0.718,0.522 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.089,-0.21,0.024 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.335,-0.624,-0.117 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.183,-0.548,0.055 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.232,-0.655,0.058 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.158,-0.156,0.42 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.888,-1.587,-0.384 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.827,-1.591,-0.288 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.721,-0.27 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.634,-0.276 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.545,-0.305 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.772,-1.526,-0.276 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.71,-1.38,-0.233 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-1.226,-0.141 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.786,-0.244 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.777,-0.086 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.066,-0.917,0.68 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.34,-1.001,0.097 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.029,-0.142,0.088 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.187,-0.724,0.135 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv index 41eb375d33f88e4e7d4b1a63249ea7a7fbcba99f..621198599b5086f10bd143e22c04781dcf628b91 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.571,0.143,0.861,-0.01,-0.054,0.033 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.002,-0.087,0.051 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.033,-0.048,0.127 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.042,-0.004,0.091 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.032,0.002,0.056 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.093,0.011,0.201 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.478,0.153,0.697 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.445,0.145,0.674 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.25,0.151,0.364 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.304,0.917 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.243,0.81 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.316,0.731 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.682,0.421,0.841 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.683,0.446,0.836 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.429,0.139,0.857,0.01,-0.034,0.051 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.008,-0.065,0.065 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.043,-0.037,0.124 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.052,0.015,0.086 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.042,0.001,0.084 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.102,0.031,0.189 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.483,0.157,0.709 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.451,0.156,0.683 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.185,0.349 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.755,0.295,0.916 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.603,0.244,0.813 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.317,0.733 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.42,0.843 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.686,0.451,0.839 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.002,-0.053,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.008,-0.069,0.061 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.112,0.084 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.011,0.074 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.02,-0.065,0.099 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.015,0.087 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.058,0.021,0.1 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.021,0.108 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.165,0.385 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.596,0.289,0.786 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.248,0.769 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.412,0.8 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.851,0.447,0.96 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.389,0.882 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.781,0.608,0.893 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.626,0.897 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.091,0.101 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.035,-0.029,0.096 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,-0.018,0.104 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.034,-0.014,0.091 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.095,0.006,0.182 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.479,0.12,0.721 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.446,0.112,0.701 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.145,0.363 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.756,0.281,0.922 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.599,0.211,0.824 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.286,0.75 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.683,0.397,0.851 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.684,0.424,0.848 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.034,-0.145,0.045 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.045,-0.141,0.036 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.037,-0.106,0.028 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.031,-0.031,0.124 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.031,0.066 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.034,0.132 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.056,-0.012,0.133 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.016,0.123 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.26,0.114,0.407 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.595,0.249,0.809 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.186,0.792 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.65,0.373,0.816 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.854,0.428,0.963 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.712,0.366,0.888 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.575,0.902 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.594,0.906 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.08,0.011 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.032,-0.142,0.03 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.083,0.045 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.018,0.051 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.005,0.056 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.034,-0.006,0.062 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.12,0.391 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.582,0.262,0.777 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.197,0.764 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.379,0.8 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.849,0.438,0.96 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.375,0.877 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.582,0.889 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.782,0.601,0.893 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.02,-0.11,0.061 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.071,0.03 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.047,0.077 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.01,-0.066,0.069 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.101,0.071 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.062,-0.004,0.114 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.46,0.074,0.711 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.426,0.064,0.688 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.224,0.095,0.351 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.747,0.24,0.916 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.585,0.176,0.815 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.245,0.739 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.671,0.364,0.848 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.396,0.844 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.044,-0.1,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.055,-0.094,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.116,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.01,-0.074,0.062 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,-0.058,0.099 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.039,-0.038,0.101 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.008,0.093 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.246,0.087,0.423 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.588,0.233,0.794 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.548,0.166,0.782 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.644,0.359,0.812 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.851,0.418,0.962 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.707,0.353,0.887 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.566,0.898 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.585,0.902 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.096,-0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.152,0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.054,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.109,0.055 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.011,-0.06,0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,0.929,0.052,0.006,0.123 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.455,0.117,0.693 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.42,0.103,0.667 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.139,0.317 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.746,0.275,0.914 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.581,0.207,0.803 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.274,0.721 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.668,0.388,0.835 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.669,0.41,0.832 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.033,-0.059,-0.002 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.044,-0.092,-0.001 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.035,-0.1,0.014 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.076,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.011,-0.032,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.063,-0.017,0.173 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.461,0.119,0.695 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.427,0.115,0.673 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.123,0.329 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.75,0.272,0.916 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.585,0.215,0.807 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.29,0.723 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.406,0.836 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.673,0.426,0.832 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.102,-0.252,-0.011 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.113,-0.233,-0.032 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.105,-0.223,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.066,-0.129,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.071,0.429,-0.055,-0.141,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.067,-0.209,0.017 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.009,0.0,0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.011,0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.223,0.116,0.358 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.258,0.778 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.197,0.76 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.633,0.366,0.794 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.434,0.96 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.698,0.368,0.878 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.58,0.887 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.599,0.891 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.062,-0.111,-0.021 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.059,-0.154,0.012 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.059,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.113,0.037 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.009,-0.022,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.424,0.037,0.688 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.388,0.016,0.66 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.173,0.054,0.294 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.733,0.181,0.911 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.558,0.137,0.797 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.513,0.217,0.719 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.65,0.323,0.833 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.651,0.359,0.831 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.915,-2.3,-0.18 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.934,-2.44,-0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.919,-2.585,-0.137 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.851,-2.459,-0.079 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.834,-2.257,-0.132 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.854,-2.28,-0.135 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.737,-2.205,-0.039 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.009,-0.011,0.031 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.102,0.357 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.245,0.776 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.185,0.759 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.629,0.357,0.794 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.847,0.427,0.96 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.695,0.362,0.878 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.572,0.887 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.591,0.891 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.121,-0.022 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.14,-0.016 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.067,0.006 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.102,0.008 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.048,0.011 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.009,-0.032,0.011 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.209,0.084,0.36 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.567,0.227,0.78 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.161,0.763 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.346,0.795 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.411,0.959 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.345,0.878 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.562,0.889 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.582,0.893 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.627,-0.197 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.351,-0.685,-0.128 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.642,-0.136 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.327,-0.734,-0.095 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.287,-0.558,-0.132 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.554,-0.113 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.264,-0.562,-0.092 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.453,0.145,0.692 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.087,0.676 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.284,0.714 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.808,0.284,0.953 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.269,0.825 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.519,0.848 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.541,0.854 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.476,-3.677,-0.406 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.471,-4.234,-0.332 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.394,-3.477,-0.355 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.427,-3.85,-0.304 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.354,-3.502,-0.348 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.333,-3.474,-0.324 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.312,-3.54,-0.294 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.829,-2.252,-0.17 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.143,0.857,-0.063,-0.172,0.032 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.436,-1.441,0.061 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.571,0.093,0.875 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.104,0.367 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.155,0.051,0.254 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.243,0.512 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.28,0.491 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.802,-2.065,-0.17 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.82,-2.155,-0.185 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.806,-2.345,-0.126 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.742,-2.208,-0.068 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.725,-1.999,-0.115 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.744,-2.057,-0.13 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.635,-1.942,-0.016 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.143,0.857,0.059,-0.033,0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.098,-0.253,0.033 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.136,-0.006,0.263 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.679,0.122,0.942 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.141,0.431 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.381,0.525 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.402,0.547 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.255,-3.321,-0.329 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.25,-3.81,-0.229 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.18,-3.234,-0.246 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.21,-3.591,-0.199 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-3.167,-0.246 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.124,-3.155,-0.227 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.105,-3.225,-0.192 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-2.082,-0.095 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.089,-0.034,0.202 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.351,-1.288,0.062 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.578,0.086,0.877 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.101,0.416 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.204,0.116,0.303 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.269,0.538 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.313,0.519 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.334,-0.572,-0.178 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.347,-0.537,-0.228 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.569,-0.169 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.289,-0.542,-0.106 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.464,-0.162 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.49,-0.141 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.21,-0.415,-0.058 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.304,-0.064,0.59 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.26,-0.066,0.563 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.681,0.079,0.898 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.465,0.049,0.74 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.411,0.133,0.629 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.576,0.257,0.781 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.578,0.29,0.774 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.092,-11.018,-0.437 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.078,-10.921,-0.418 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-3.104,-11.774,-0.391 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-2.951,-10.911,-0.316 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.943,-10.653,-0.38 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.995,-10.863,-0.374 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.744,-10.286,-0.22 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.329,-7.014,-0.103 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.714,-1.372,-7.152,-0.094 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.137,-8.832,-0.086 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.085,0.322 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.69,0.14,0.945 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.163,0.498 +AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.439,0.55 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.461,0.571 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.865,-3.998,-0.7 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.859,-4.429,-0.596 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.77,-3.99,-0.611 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.808,-4.323,-0.561 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.723,-3.847,-0.577 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.699,-3.847,-0.554 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.675,-3.872,-0.53 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.116,-2.499,-0.396 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.157,-0.357,0.006 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.27,-0.475,-0.093 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.619,-0.191,0.934 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.176,-0.119,0.407 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.263,0.474 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.285,0.498 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.72,-23.987,-0.809 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-5.843,-25.798,-0.747 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.624,-24.278,-0.78 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-5.702,-25.133,-0.719 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.569,-23.796,-0.768 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.529,-23.796,-0.746 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.472,-23.681,-0.697 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-4.218,-20.183,-0.396 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.12,-16.234,-0.139 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.23,-17.179,-0.162 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-1.625,-14.209,0.161 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.854,-6.04,0.103 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.932,-5.893,0.162 -AutoETS,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.524,-5.012,0.36 -AutoETS,Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.509,-4.989,0.352 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.491,-4.261,-0.321 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.516,-4.346,-0.323 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.496,-4.691,-0.268 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.408,-4.392,-0.214 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.385,-4.079,-0.26 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.411,-4.181,-0.274 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.26,-3.938,-0.159 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.301,-0.58,-0.116 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.714,-0.113 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.868,-2.852,-0.051 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.46,-0.114,0.858 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.332,-14.278,0.126 +AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.858,-12.363,0.398 +AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.804,-12.205,0.425 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.479,-7.506,-0.637 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.472,-7.959,-0.578 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.364,-7.162,-0.601 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.41,-7.837,-0.546 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.307,-7.179,-0.581 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.277,-7.179,-0.567 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.248,-7.22,-0.527 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-4.717,-0.367 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.758,-0.164 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.992,-0.195 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.214,-0.687,0.106 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.571,-0.144,0.935 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.1,-0.419,0.137 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.208,0.058,0.36 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.211,0.087,0.342 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.265,-2.715,-0.461 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.288,-2.746,-0.464 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.27,-2.993,-0.4 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.19,-2.836,-0.324 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.583,-0.377 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.192,-2.604,-0.408 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.055,-2.553,-0.277 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.183,-0.34,-0.054 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.257,-0.435,-0.131 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.698,-1.692,-0.153 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.482,-0.194,0.855 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.091,-0.159,0.295 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.28,0.079,0.433 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.857,0.714,1.0,0.282,0.128,0.41 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.146,-5.283,-0.727 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.178,-5.372,-0.725 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-2.152,-5.704,-0.659 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.041,-5.587,-0.572 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.012,-5.07,-0.634 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.045,-5.099,-0.682 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-1.854,-5.005,-0.476 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.643,-1.048,-0.321 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-1.166,-0.367 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.359,-3.572,-0.346 -Drift,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.344,-0.562,0.834 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.263,-0.564,-0.062 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.389,-0.765,-0.086 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.003,-0.044,0.058 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.156,-5.1,-0.806 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.189,-5.229,-0.82 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.163,-5.559,-0.735 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.052,-5.393,-0.654 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.022,-4.966,-0.695 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.056,-4.965,-0.741 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.864,-4.914,-0.56 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.648,-0.965,-0.389 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-1.077,-0.456 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.367,-3.427,-0.408 -Naive,AutoETS,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.337,-0.544,0.833 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.267,-0.519,-0.095 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.143,0.0,0.286,-0.394,-0.694,-0.147 -Naive,Drift,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.003,-0.061,0.042 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.237,0.048,0.39 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.266,0.077,0.417 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.56,-8.328,-1.553 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.55,-9.211,-1.351 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.409,-7.988,-1.391 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.469,-8.786,-1.303 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.334,-7.847,-1.379 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.295,-7.822,-1.337 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.257,-7.97,-1.283 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.368,-5.581,-1.081 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.841,-1.107,-0.615 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.022,-1.221,-0.784 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.903,-0.356 +Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.462,-0.661,0.925 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.311,-0.64,-0.051 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.038,0.023,0.048 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.74,-8.702,-1.674 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.731,-9.61,-1.462 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.584,-8.339,-1.504 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.647,-9.168,-1.412 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.506,-8.192,-1.492 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.466,-8.166,-1.447 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.426,-8.32,-1.391 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.502,-5.838,-1.177 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.209,-0.671 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.33,-0.857 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.655,-0.991,-0.399 +Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.446,-0.738,0.924 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.363,-0.714,-0.083 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.023 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 8975dd2f103ca6c357950ce5862d39241b5de829..fa4193fa03f19c9c7e69b496eb71711ba7801b24 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.06349206349208,37.031984410801556,0.0,1.0048769279378604,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,79.56349206349206,31.756842876803205,0.0,0.634193638575108,0.1111111111111111,0.0 -TiRex,77.9761904761905,30.959901636708754,0.0,0.12270568949778277,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,69.64285714285711,29.797350941959134,0.0,20.37693309206464,0.05555555555555555,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,61.80555555555555,27.986857930755637,0.0,0.23139575766001647,0.1388888888888889,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.61507936507935,27.25662897823846,0.0,0.12904372020784313,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,54.86111111111111,27.785725472538402,0.0,74.43424249856537,0.0,5.555555555555555 -Sundial-Base,53.17460317460318,25.706657478917826,0.0,7.843398798997882,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,46.230158730158735,13.650725907512317,0.0,70.18682178316327,0.0,8.333333333333332 -AutoTheta,36.30952380952381,11.931051692995487,0.0,2.783008451220238,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,33.53174603174603,12.77263280798463,0.0,13.86779602162245,0.0,5.555555555555555 -AutoETS,31.8452380952381,9.802249190218026,0.0,1.6747289355714285,0.0,2.7777777777777777 -Naive,22.916666666666664,-2.2214112262656016,0.0,0.3094170634187266,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.154761904761905,0.0,0.0,0.3065547085,0.0,0.0 -Drift,11.30952380952381,-7.154463652128329,0.0,0.3101577249,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,93.92857142857142,31.501656677015877,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.57142857142857,23.432210853887824,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 +TiRex,77.14285714285715,22.162040254473435,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,60.535714285714285,19.71091545425906,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.464285714285715,19.675877583589962,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,56.07142857142857,13.027815355863082,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 +TabPFN-TS,53.75,21.87830321957843,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 +Toto-1.0,52.142857142857146,16.413339138501282,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,46.07142857142858,16.038005246480637,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,40.71428571428572,10.280766781650541,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,38.21428571428571,9.26831193284996,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,33.92857142857142,10.226042531476098,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 +Naive,23.750000000000004,-6.914332478799268,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,22.857142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.85714285714286,-11.344894423586283,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 2f6863e235d744af919b695bf4dab87c95f57c9a..afe39a7bc19c7e4d6a527c0e13e32e6f5f4d4fc5 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.65079365079364,55.24682827655452,0.0,1.0048769279378604,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,84.32539682539681,51.00585678432055,0.0,0.12270568949778277,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.93650793650794,51.08225428496542,0.0,0.634193638575108,0.1111111111111111,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.0079365079365,49.61649635854898,0.0,20.37693309206464,0.05555555555555555,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.77380952380952,48.097908032351434,0.0,0.23139575766001647,0.1388888888888889,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.57539682539681,47.296169590199945,0.0,0.12904372020784313,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.63888888888891,45.19532334571175,0.0,74.43424249856537,0.0,5.555555555555555 -Sundial-Base,47.023809523809526,43.45016102867775,0.0,7.843398798997882,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,43.25396825396825,24.891865755341,0.0,70.18682178316327,0.0,8.333333333333332 -AutoARIMA,40.87301587301587,31.114106259154717,0.0,13.86779602162245,0.0,5.555555555555555 -AutoETS,31.051587301587297,-32.36813529355611,0.0,1.6747289355714285,0.0,2.7777777777777777 -AutoTheta,30.555555555555554,18.482830077885538,0.0,2.783008451220238,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.353174603174605,0.0,0.0,0.3065547085,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.20238095238095,-41.01504225828758,0.0,0.3094170634187266,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.777777777777778,-46.081590937812635,0.0,0.3101577249,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,95.35714285714285,43.96240642608832,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,86.07142857142858,36.823555756781786,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,83.21428571428572,37.10811211763772,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,69.46428571428571,34.10760588639609,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,64.46428571428572,33.491148656047734,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 +Toto-1.0,59.64285714285714,30.939728300714854,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.464285714285715,35.43634457814382,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 +Stat. Ensemble,48.92857142857142,23.85904743187437,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,41.42857142857143,23.978096972410967,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.57142857142858,25.74930746838757,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,35.35714285714286,19.31393356433696,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,32.142857142857146,-30.072080218522256,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.750000000000002,-24.765318851224837,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.571428571428571,-28.889461313877618,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 32cda88b279df821ee4e6ea9a337733ed9a644e6..c1b777a944f601f37cba932b354bc52cec51900d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.46825396825398,40.54860569361472,0.0,1.0048769279378604,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.74603174603175,34.500793105822616,0.0,0.634193638575108,0.1111111111111111,0.0 -TiRex,80.15873015873015,34.10940650365518,0.0,0.12270568949778277,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,72.02380952380952,32.22183933140553,0.0,20.37693309206464,0.05555555555555555,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.37698412698413,34.68279303354718,0.0,74.43424249856537,0.0,5.555555555555555 -Moirai-2.0,61.40873015873015,30.029444673809046,0.0,0.23139575766001647,0.1388888888888889,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.02777777777777,28.253812271379864,0.0,0.12904372020784313,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,54.96031746031746,28.622701207577784,0.0,7.843398798997882,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.24603174603174,15.228466626283888,0.0,70.18682178316327,0.0,8.333333333333332 -AutoARIMA,34.72222222222222,15.377840140911314,0.0,13.86779602162245,0.0,5.555555555555555 -AutoTheta,32.142857142857146,12.983523765758987,0.0,2.783008451220238,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,29.464285714285715,10.976143469139254,0.0,1.6747289355714285,0.0,2.7777777777777777 -Naive,20.535714285714285,-1.6943912697446217,0.0,0.3094170634187266,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.37698412698413,0.0,0.0,0.3065547085,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.34126984126984,-7.00840889544434,0.0,0.3101577249,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.85714285714288,36.379613913489294,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,81.07142857142857,26.676884863739826,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,80.71428571428572,26.63143268920436,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,67.67857142857142,31.495409904169957,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.464285714285715,21.34999371322177,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,59.10714285714285,21.832707013778197,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 +Toto-1.0,55.714285714285715,19.746861195373988,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,51.42857142857142,15.056774830590047,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 +Sundial-Base,50.0,19.631923145741638,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,37.142857142857146,13.94268827584597,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,35.71428571428571,11.9856769445434,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,33.92857142857142,9.663626183996287,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.178571428571423,-5.797213358383746,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.42857142857143,-11.068952925850128,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv index d3ccbb0e374a3592ce86bda9b9d4f34b9acc1e24..661a4e32c76c425846175bca2578eb980b0d84f5 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.06349206349208,56.12499628981607,0.0,1.0048769279378604,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.53968253968253,51.557156334970514,0.0,0.12270568949778277,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285712,51.89340757189349,0.0,0.634193638575108,0.1111111111111111,0.0 -Toto-1.0,75.39682539682539,50.13124153601284,0.0,20.37693309206464,0.05555555555555555,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.77380952380955,49.833203877280994,0.0,74.43424249856537,0.0,5.555555555555555 -Moirai-2.0,65.37698412698411,48.40913888769081,0.0,0.23139575766001647,0.1388888888888889,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,62.00396825396825,46.61389713095968,0.0,0.12904372020784313,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,50.39682539682539,44.118577564497876,0.0,7.843398798997882,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,41.86507936507936,25.75379339303633,0.0,70.18682178316327,0.0,8.333333333333332 -AutoARIMA,41.07142857142856,32.95200891092176,0.0,13.86779602162245,0.0,5.555555555555555 -AutoTheta,30.15873015873015,18.427133883750948,0.0,2.783008451220238,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,29.861111111111104,-34.83182100069757,0.0,1.6747289355714285,0.0,2.7777777777777777 -Seasonal Naive,17.36111111111111,0.0,0.0,0.3065547085,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.21031746031746,-41.394737237440005,0.0,0.3094170634187266,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.777777777777778,-46.75544698298395,0.0,0.3101577249,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,93.21428571428572,48.70640032243877,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,84.28571428571426,41.29715572696604,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,81.78571428571428,41.64654333985731,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,70.53571428571429,44.77960188404002,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 +Chronos-Bolt,65.17857142857143,37.464866804831296,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,64.82142857142857,37.53610716017488,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 +Toto-1.0,61.428571428571445,35.67337775117804,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,46.78571428571428,26.910379403137718,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 +Sundial-Base,44.28571428571429,30.894178482978774,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,41.785714285714285,28.45447313005621,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,33.92857142857143,21.431184897649857,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,30.0,-32.00072832424261,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.42857142857143,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.964285714285715,-25.330360744270486,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.571428571428572,-29.953276469478407,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv index 75cce887670f307f75e81254a0f096d9d591c529..f542562325a40e7c893d57269dfd5f395e9d86b8 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.611,0.889,0.077,0.039,0.121 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.088,0.046,0.134 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.639,0.472,0.778,0.103,0.055,0.154 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.126,0.085,0.172 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.134,0.096,0.178 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.128,0.079,0.177 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.152,0.112,0.196 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.209,0.334 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.225,0.347 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.221,0.341 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.302,0.237,0.373 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.384,0.31,0.456 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.304,0.437 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.343,0.479 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.111,0.389,-0.084,-0.137,-0.041 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.105,0.047,0.172 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.12,0.057,0.189 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.085,0.21 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.091,0.208 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.133,0.285 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.123,0.048,0.207 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.181,0.119,0.241 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.184,0.124,0.243 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.161,0.309 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.16,0.324 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.167,0.305 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.251,0.452 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.234,0.388 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.282,0.471 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.118,-0.208,-0.049 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.611,0.472,0.778,0.012,-0.003,0.027 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.528,0.375,0.681,0.028,-0.009,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.778,0.639,0.903,0.052,0.03,0.077 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.806,0.681,0.917,0.062,0.039,0.088 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.055,-0.023,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.081,0.061,0.104 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.21,0.146,0.271 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.225,0.167,0.283 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.218,0.166,0.274 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.243,0.176,0.31 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.332,0.261,0.397 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.318,0.25,0.383 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.363,0.295,0.424 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.096,-0.155,-0.048 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.389,0.222,0.528,-0.012,-0.028,0.003 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.016,-0.005,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.046,0.019,0.078 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.047,0.027,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.12,0.049,0.2 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.02,-0.113,0.124 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.084,0.044,0.129 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.088,0.058,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.079,0.223 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.156,0.075,0.244 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.089,0.208 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.181,0.37 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.306 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.312,0.214,0.394 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.136,-0.233,-0.061 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.017,-0.039,0.005 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.017,-0.024,0.055 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.041,0.019,0.063 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.051,0.027,0.078 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.044,-0.036,0.109 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.722,0.944,0.071,0.048,0.095 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.2,0.138,0.262 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.216,0.158,0.276 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.209,0.159,0.261 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.235,0.169,0.3 -TiRex,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.325,0.257,0.388 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.31,0.241,0.375 -TiRex,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.356,0.291,0.414 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.361,0.222,0.528,-0.115,-0.182,-0.058 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.472,0.319,0.625,-0.029,-0.072,0.009 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.017,-0.058,0.023 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.514,0.806,0.025,-0.014,0.068 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.417,0.722,0.035,-0.005,0.077 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.528,0.806,0.028,-0.061,0.106 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.055,0.014,0.097 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.583,0.889,0.187,0.1,0.262 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.203,0.127,0.274 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.195,0.122,0.267 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.222,0.132,0.3 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.313,0.23,0.39 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.298,0.212,0.377 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.345,0.268,0.417 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.144,-0.208,-0.093 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.222,0.097,0.361,-0.055,-0.084,-0.031 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.043,-0.067,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.194,0.486,-0.026,-0.073,0.014 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.031,-0.001,0.062 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.031,0.001,0.057 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.033,0.185 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.004,-0.126,0.108 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.113 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.073,0.039,0.107 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.132,0.066,0.208 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.142,0.061,0.233 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.08,0.189 +TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.272,0.172,0.357 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.222,0.146,0.292 +TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.301,0.208,0.38 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.265,-0.093 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.049,-0.084,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.031,-0.066,0.001 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.597,0.444,0.736,0.01,-0.014,0.035 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.003,-0.086,0.077 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.722,0.583,0.861,0.031,0.002,0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.166,0.1,0.227 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.182,0.123,0.241 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.174,0.121,0.229 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.202,0.134,0.267 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.296,0.223,0.361 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.28,0.21,0.343 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.328,0.259,0.388 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.155,-0.216,-0.106 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.194,0.083,0.319,-0.066,-0.096,-0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.054,-0.084,-0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.278,0.583,-0.036,-0.083,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.403,0.264,0.556,-0.01,-0.036,0.014 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.0,-0.019,0.019 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.077,0.005,0.152 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.028,-0.162,0.088 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.039,0.012,0.077 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.044,0.014,0.075 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.105,0.04,0.176 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.115,0.033,0.196 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.106,0.046,0.164 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.249,0.143,0.338 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.197,0.115,0.268 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.279,0.178,0.362 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.173,-0.262,-0.1 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.049,-0.074,-0.027 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.032,-0.061,-0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.0,-0.019,0.019 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.556,0.389,0.722,-0.007,-0.098,0.069 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.611,0.444,0.75,0.021,-0.011,0.049 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.583,0.889,0.158,0.094,0.217 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.174,0.116,0.23 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.166,0.111,0.224 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.194,0.125,0.261 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.288,0.215,0.352 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.273,0.202,0.337 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.321,0.253,0.383 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.147,-0.215,-0.086 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.058,-0.134,0.022 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.046,-0.122,0.034 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.194,0.472,-0.029,-0.118,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.003,-0.083,0.079 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.444,0.278,0.611,0.007,-0.074,0.089 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.076,0.002,0.156 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.85,-0.028,-0.163,0.085 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.01,0.078 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.043,0.016,0.072 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.105,0.038,0.179 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.115,0.031,0.204 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.045,0.167 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.249,0.14,0.338 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.197,0.112,0.272 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.279,0.178,0.363 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.399,-0.153 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.136,-0.25,-0.052 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.117,-0.227,-0.035 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.083,-0.179,-0.005 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.083,-0.185,-0.002 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.525,0.325,0.725,-0.113,-0.269,0.033 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.041,-0.11,0.022 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.036,-0.131,0.043 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.031,0.009,0.052 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.041,0.013,0.071 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.031,-0.011,0.072 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.187,0.106,0.265 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.13,0.09,0.168 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.219,0.144,0.293 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.14,-0.261,-0.051 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.02,-0.142,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.004,-0.121,0.112 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.027,-0.097,0.14 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.15,0.6,0.027,-0.092,0.14 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.475,0.275,0.675,0.102,-0.034,0.212 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.556,0.389,0.722,0.028,-0.042,0.102 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.625,0.472,0.778,0.164,0.076,0.251 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.528,0.806,0.18,0.093,0.265 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.172,0.096,0.249 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.199,0.104,0.29 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.294,0.193,0.392 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.278,0.19,0.365 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.326,0.232,0.419 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.18,-0.243,-0.127 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.089,-0.116,-0.065 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.167,0.056,0.278,-0.076,-0.105,-0.05 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.058,-0.107,-0.014 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.278,0.139,0.417,-0.032,-0.058,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.389,0.25,0.556,-0.021,-0.052,0.011 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.444,0.278,0.611,-0.029,-0.114,0.04 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.065,-0.055,0.173 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.07,-0.034,0.168 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,-0.007,0.242 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.139,-0.001,0.256 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.13,0.022,0.225 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.269,0.12,0.394 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.625,0.925,0.219,0.088,0.326 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.298,0.155,0.423 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.22,-0.318,-0.135 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.092,-0.148,-0.046 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.074,-0.128,-0.029 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.041,-0.083,-0.012 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.084,-0.01 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.039,-0.022,0.099 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.07,-0.21,0.052 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.004,-0.04,0.038 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,0.015,0.12 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,0.008,0.144 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.069,0.019,0.118 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.218,0.111,0.301 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.164,0.088,0.227 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.249,0.152,0.325 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.226,-0.321,-0.141 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.097,-0.134,-0.061 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.079,-0.12,-0.04 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.046,-0.081,-0.014 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.045,-0.077,-0.016 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.035,-0.045,0.116 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.075,-0.201,0.033 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.004,-0.04,0.038 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.14,0.07,0.204 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.156,0.093,0.219 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.148,0.091,0.204 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.176,0.104,0.249 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.273,0.196,0.343 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.257,0.182,0.326 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.861,0.722,0.944,0.307,0.236,0.372 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.371,-0.501,-0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.265,-0.373,-0.172 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.251,-0.355,-0.161 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.111,0.417,-0.23,-0.354,-0.111 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.199,-0.293,-0.112 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.111,0.417,-0.187,-0.278,-0.103 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.222,0.528,-0.196,-0.335,-0.082 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.162,-0.256,-0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.02,-0.005,0.042 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.611,0.458,0.764,0.01,-0.022,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.043,0.012,0.069 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.833,0.722,0.944,0.155,0.098,0.214 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.903,0.819,0.972,0.137,0.104,0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.194,0.14,0.247 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.532,-0.29 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.291,-0.395,-0.2 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.276,-0.382,-0.188 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.254,-0.378,-0.145 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.223,-0.318,-0.14 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.211,-0.299,-0.131 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.194,0.472,-0.22,-0.36,-0.103 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.185,-0.28,-0.103 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.02,-0.044,0.005 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.064,-0.009,0.142 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.075,-0.013,0.163 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.065,0.006,0.122 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.215,0.092,0.312 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.16,0.068,0.237 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.246,0.133,0.337 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.447,-0.191 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.287,-0.085 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.153,-0.263,-0.071 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.117,-0.214,-0.042 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.218,-0.039 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.032,-0.054,-0.009 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.148,-0.32,0.007 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.073,-0.137,-0.015 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.069,-0.166,0.009 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.361,0.639,-0.01,-0.049,0.029 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.556,0.416,0.695,0.024,0.003,0.046 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.138,0.083,0.193 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.119,0.082,0.157 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.178,0.129,0.228 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.517,-0.284 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.278,-0.378,-0.199 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.263,-0.353,-0.189 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.243,-0.365,-0.139 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.211,-0.297,-0.137 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.199,-0.288,-0.125 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.208,-0.332,-0.107 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.174,-0.256,-0.101 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.389,0.236,0.542,-0.01,-0.044,0.021 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.361,0.639,0.01,-0.03,0.046 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.583,0.417,0.722,0.033,-0.01,0.077 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.147,0.086,0.207 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.861,0.75,0.958,0.128,0.09,0.166 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.186,0.127,0.244 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.432,-0.594,-0.311 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.322,-0.449,-0.213 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.306,-0.429,-0.204 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.285,-0.428,-0.152 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.253,-0.364,-0.154 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.24,-0.353,-0.143 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.249,-0.409,-0.116 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.214,-0.332,-0.116 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.045,-0.074,-0.013 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.444,0.305,0.584,-0.024,-0.049,-0.003 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.278,0.583,-0.034,-0.083,0.009 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.011,-0.014,0.04 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.001,-0.04,0.048 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.161,0.08,0.236 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.103,0.062,0.142 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.194,0.124,0.261 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.48,-0.19 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.185,-0.323,-0.081 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.166,-0.303,-0.065 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.13,-0.244,-0.035 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.13,-0.256,-0.032 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.043,-0.076,-0.013 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.161,-0.344,0.001 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.168,-0.009 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.081,-0.194,0.013 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.011,-0.041,0.014 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.118,0.058,0.178 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.819,0.681,0.931,0.098,0.06,0.135 -AutoETS,Drift,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.158,0.105,0.215 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.623,-0.837,-0.45 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.498,-0.658,-0.353 -Naive,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.481,-0.634,-0.347 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.456,-0.638,-0.299 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.419,-0.566,-0.286 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.405,-0.544,-0.273 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.416,-0.644,-0.239 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.376,-0.523,-0.244 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.056,0.278,-0.184,-0.273,-0.109 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.161,-0.239,-0.091 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.172,-0.261,-0.094 -Naive,AutoETS,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.133,-0.217,-0.062 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.011,-0.069,0.042 +AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.151,0.064,0.232 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.093,0.047,0.135 +AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.257 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.439,-0.2 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.263,-0.097 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.153,-0.233,-0.087 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.196,-0.049 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.201,-0.047 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.032,-0.077,0.011 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.149,-0.291,-0.022 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.074,-0.134,-0.019 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.069,-0.139,-0.006 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.001,-0.051,0.039 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.011,-0.044,0.064 +AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.072,0.243 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.102,0.056,0.141 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.194,0.113,0.268 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.826,-0.336 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.396,-0.588,-0.221 +Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.374,-0.555,-0.208 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.332,-0.51,-0.167 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.331,-0.511,-0.163 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.229,-0.361,-0.119 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.369,-0.651,-0.136 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.279,-0.43,-0.125 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.273,-0.454,-0.101 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.192,-0.309,-0.087 +Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.178,-0.301,-0.068 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.191,-0.321,-0.078 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.486,0.361,0.611,-0.022,-0.083,0.03 -Naive,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.046,0.032,0.061 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.776,-0.436 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.465,-0.62,-0.333 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.448,-0.601,-0.318 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.424,-0.605,-0.27 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.389,-0.523,-0.266 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.375,-0.509,-0.254 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.385,-0.574,-0.234 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.346,-0.484,-0.223 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.097,0.028,0.181,-0.158,-0.206,-0.116 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.135,-0.186,-0.089 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.139,0.042,0.25,-0.146,-0.199,-0.098 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.181,0.069,0.319,-0.109,-0.155,-0.064 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.514,0.389,0.639,0.022,-0.031,0.076 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.375,0.225,0.525,-0.069,-0.161,0.001 +Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.04,0.025,0.058 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.46,-0.635,-0.305 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.306,-0.442,-0.185 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.285,-0.413,-0.17 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.245,-0.366,-0.13 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.245,-0.374,-0.126 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.15,-0.202,-0.099 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.075,0.375,-0.28,-0.484,-0.097 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.196,-0.294,-0.096 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.191,-0.311,-0.073 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.115,-0.166,-0.066 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.102,-0.156,-0.049 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.114,-0.165,-0.06 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.625,0.475,0.775,0.065,-0.001,0.139 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.067,0.014,0.122 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.702,-0.919,-0.522 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.57,-0.735,-0.418 -Drift,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.552,-0.707,-0.41 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.526,-0.716,-0.366 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.488,-0.635,-0.35 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.473,-0.62,-0.338 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.484,-0.722,-0.301 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.139,0.056,0.278,-0.442,-0.592,-0.309 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.241,-0.328,-0.163 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.217,-0.295,-0.148 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.228,-0.323,-0.146 -Drift,AutoETS,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.188,-0.273,-0.117 -Drift,Naive,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.048,-0.065,-0.033 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.072,-0.139,-0.014 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.102,0.042,0.167 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-0.892,-0.394 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.454,-0.651,-0.273 +Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.43,-0.613,-0.262 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.387,-0.568,-0.217 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.386,-0.569,-0.217 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.28,-0.414,-0.168 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.425,-0.733,-0.183 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.332,-0.481,-0.179 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.326,-0.508,-0.153 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.241,-0.353,-0.142 +Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.227,-0.346,-0.122 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.24,-0.366,-0.127 +Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.041,-0.061,-0.025 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.113,-0.201,-0.044 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv index fd9290e9934e8345748082631098d972ce626279..a8808c5bc6bc6776490cbb7c781ca64a0eb56e4b 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.087,0.046,0.131 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.085,0.047,0.127 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.528,0.806,0.112,0.062,0.161 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.138,0.096,0.184 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.151,0.11,0.193 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.183,0.126,0.242 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.209,0.17,0.251 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.327,0.481 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.281,0.418 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.457,0.749 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.367,0.525 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.552,0.458,0.641 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.683,0.601,0.744 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.694,0.617,0.753 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.095,-0.151,-0.049 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.113,0.05,0.183 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.174 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.15,0.091,0.211 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.095,0.219 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.189,0.119,0.253 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.132,0.051,0.216 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.185,0.334 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.19,0.335 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.186,0.302 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.219,0.389 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.291,0.735 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.349,0.516 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.436,0.64 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.454,0.651 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.127,-0.224,-0.052 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.472,0.306,0.639,-0.002,-0.017,0.015 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.611,0.444,0.778,0.028,-0.012,0.066 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.056,0.036,0.077 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.07,0.048,0.098 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.106,0.024,0.181 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.134,0.112,0.158 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.348,0.265,0.428 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.224,0.357 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.589,0.404,0.728 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.311,0.478 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.418,0.605 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.653,0.57,0.718 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.586,0.729 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.093,-0.145,-0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.528,0.361,0.694,0.002,-0.015,0.017 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.02,0.012 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.019,0.066 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.05,0.022,0.081 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.046,0.129 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.021,-0.113,0.133 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.103,0.244 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.119,0.221 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.116,0.183 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.146,0.291 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.191,0.704 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.285,0.444 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.386,0.578 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.406,0.593 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.122,-0.211,-0.053 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.012,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.528,0.375,0.681,0.029,-0.009,0.07 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.708,0.931,0.057,0.037,0.082 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.708,0.931,0.072,0.051,0.096 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.806,0.667,0.944,0.107,0.029,0.176 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.135,0.115,0.155 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.349,0.265,0.428 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.226,0.355 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.59,0.403,0.728 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.4,0.313,0.48 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.419,0.602 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.653,0.572,0.718 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.587,0.728 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.194,0.472,-0.126,-0.192,-0.066 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.389,0.222,0.556,-0.028,-0.07,0.012 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.472,0.319,0.625,-0.03,-0.075,0.009 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.514,0.806,0.029,-0.009,0.071 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.417,0.722,0.044,-0.0,0.089 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.639,0.472,0.806,0.081,-0.018,0.169 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.109,0.074,0.144 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.329,0.225,0.426 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.269,0.18,0.353 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.58,0.385,0.725 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.382,0.276,0.474 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.496,0.388,0.597 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.643,0.546,0.714 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.655,0.561,0.724 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.16,-0.225,-0.106 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.059,-0.084,-0.037 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.069,0.292,-0.061,-0.09,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.194,0.486,-0.03,-0.076,0.009 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.569,0.417,0.708,0.015,-0.009,0.039 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.5,0.806,0.053,-0.035,0.129 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.082,0.058,0.105 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.309,0.22,0.393 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.247,0.177,0.318 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.569,0.375,0.718 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.363,0.27,0.447 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.481,0.382,0.578 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.632,0.541,0.702 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.645,0.558,0.713 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.178,-0.239,-0.124 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.076,-0.108,-0.051 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.069,0.292,-0.077,-0.106,-0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.278,0.583,-0.046,-0.098,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.431,0.292,0.583,-0.015,-0.041,0.009 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.046,0.027,0.067 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.054,0.028,0.086 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.089,0.048,0.136 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.026,-0.105,0.134 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.254 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.118,0.229 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.125,0.183 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.141,0.299 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.489,0.194,0.705 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.452 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.383,0.581 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.404,0.595 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.176,-0.268,-0.1 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.071,-0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.048,-0.072,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.694,0.528,0.833,0.038,-0.049,0.116 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.861,0.75,0.945,0.068,0.036,0.097 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.298,0.213,0.378 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.235,0.165,0.303 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.562,0.363,0.715 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.353,0.262,0.432 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.473,0.379,0.57 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.626,0.538,0.694 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.557,0.706 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.225,-0.319,-0.144 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.119,-0.22,-0.024 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.194,0.056,0.333,-0.12,-0.214,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.361,0.194,0.528,-0.088,-0.204,0.017 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.194,0.5,-0.056,-0.148,0.034 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.306,0.167,0.472,-0.04,-0.132,0.047 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.8,0.009,-0.005,0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.046,0.016,0.087 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.021,-0.159,0.096 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.135,0.059,0.211 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.133,0.079,0.19 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.085,0.14 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.183,0.106,0.259 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.468,0.158,0.691 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.341,0.248,0.419 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.472,0.356,0.561 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.376,0.575 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.187,-0.28,-0.105 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.053,-0.088,-0.023 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.058,-0.094,-0.029 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.2,0.575,-0.009,-0.026,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.037,0.009,0.076 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.03,-0.173,0.09 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.127,0.05,0.204 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.125,0.069,0.182 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.104,0.077,0.13 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.176,0.099,0.252 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.466,0.154,0.691 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.24,0.415 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.467,0.348,0.557 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.484,0.368,0.573 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.339,-0.135 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.148,-0.048 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.098,-0.158,-0.05 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.048,-0.095,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.038,-0.083,-0.009 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.07,-0.211,0.053 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,0.03,0.155 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.092,0.047,0.141 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.07,0.026,0.106 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.144,0.083,0.205 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.447,0.124,0.688 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.224,0.379 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.446,0.331,0.535 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.464,0.352,0.552 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.152,-0.275,-0.053 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.022,-0.153,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.027,-0.155,0.095 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.02,-0.106,0.137 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.029,-0.099,0.148 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.065,-0.056,0.174 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.556,0.389,0.694,0.031,-0.049,0.106 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.792,0.667,0.917,0.27,0.183,0.352 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.204,0.124,0.282 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.545,0.336,0.708 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.328,0.231,0.415 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.833,0.986,0.452,0.342,0.559 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.611,0.522,0.681 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.625,0.539,0.693 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.264,-0.335,-0.204 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.154,-0.188,-0.126 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.156,-0.184,-0.13 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.122,-0.168,-0.079 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.09,-0.117,-0.061 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.139,0.055,0.25,-0.073,-0.107,-0.038 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.444,0.306,0.611,-0.032,-0.118,0.046 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.5,0.806,0.247,0.148,0.342 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.179,0.104,0.254 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.532,0.317,0.694 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.306,0.203,0.401 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.435,0.329,0.536 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.599,0.503,0.675 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.613,0.52,0.687 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.678,-0.928,-0.485 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.533,-0.748,-0.361 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.535,-0.748,-0.361 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.491,-0.741,-0.29 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.447,-0.647,-0.283 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.425,-0.608,-0.27 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.208,0.083,0.333,-0.37,-0.543,-0.224 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.194,0.5,-0.328,-0.521,-0.173 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.875,0.152,0.038,0.257 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.151,0.04,0.249 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.13,0.03,0.224 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.2,0.065,0.321 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.475,0.164,0.703 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.354,0.221,0.462 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.483,0.342,0.595 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.499,0.364,0.61 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.501,-0.227 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.323,-0.115 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.211,-0.34,-0.113 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.156,-0.267,-0.062 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.145,-0.256,-0.052 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.103,-0.183,-0.031 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.125,0.525,-0.179,-0.346,-0.04 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.528,0.361,0.694,-0.09,-0.168,-0.023 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.421,0.152,0.63 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.079,0.041,0.112 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.764,0.958,0.249,0.151,0.346 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.382,0.546 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.403,0.562 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.718,-0.39 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.554,-0.288 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.408,-0.55,-0.291 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.367,-0.545,-0.22 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.327,-0.465,-0.216 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.307,-0.435,-0.198 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.257,-0.393,-0.142 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.218,-0.341,-0.116 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.472,0.306,0.639,0.083,0.023,0.143 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.002,-0.063,0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.025,-0.123,0.055 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,0.003,0.105 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.399,0.052,0.666 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.239,0.176,0.293 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.284,0.48 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.307,0.497 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.504,-0.234 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.203,-0.284,-0.135 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.298,-0.134 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.154,-0.235,-0.086 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.143,-0.222,-0.074 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.101,-0.164,-0.05 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.177,-0.331,-0.041 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.002,-0.049,0.059 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.451,0.202,0.644 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.778,0.639,0.889,0.155,0.09,0.225 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.931,1.0,0.311,0.23,0.401 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.424,0.589 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.443,0.606 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.658,-2.989,-0.841 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.436,-2.676,-0.678 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.437,-2.672,-0.675 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.379,-2.635,-0.627 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.32,-2.549,-0.599 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.283,-2.506,-0.569 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.222,0.083,0.361,-1.199,-2.422,-0.506 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.222,0.111,0.361,-1.137,-2.268,-0.464 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.726,-1.706,-0.179 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.821,-1.81,-0.253 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.417,0.75,-0.615,-1.543,-0.095 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.792,0.667,0.903,-0.324,-1.133,0.107 -AutoETS,Naive,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.035,-0.64,0.385 -AutoETS,Drift,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.063,-0.6,0.407 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.821,-1.104,-0.58 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-0.916,-0.452 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.666,-0.921,-0.457 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.618,-0.903,-0.382 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.571,-0.808,-0.371 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.547,-0.761,-0.355 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.487,-0.711,-0.301 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.442,-0.67,-0.255 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.085,-0.127,-0.043 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.222,0.111,0.361,-0.183,-0.29,-0.099 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.417,0.25,0.583,0.381,0.087,0.607 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.088,0.037 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.058,0.0,0.116 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.395,0.042,0.661 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.165,0.309 +AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.278,0.486 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.302,0.502 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.432,-0.229 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.223,-0.132 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.181,-0.224,-0.143 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.163,-0.093 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.116,-0.15,-0.084 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.075,-0.118,-0.027 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.15,-0.288,-0.031 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.059,0.109 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.039,0.081 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,-0.01,0.169 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.403,0.057,0.668 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.257,0.152,0.353 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.405,0.266,0.51 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.424,0.286,0.526 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.637,-0.281 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.411,-0.171 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.427,-0.164 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.225,-0.349,-0.118 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.213,-0.337,-0.11 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.168,-0.258,-0.09 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.25,-0.474,-0.07 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.06,-0.117,-0.003 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.061,-0.131,-0.0 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.203,0.01 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.185,0.08,0.288 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.422,0.336,0.498 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.442,0.359,0.518 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.234,-1.783,-0.846 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.533,-0.718 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.044,-1.511,-0.722 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.985,-1.482,-0.633 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.927,-1.368,-0.619 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.897,-1.324,-0.609 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.014,0.167,-0.825,-1.269,-0.519 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.768,-1.154,-0.49 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.042,0.236,-0.331,-0.528,-0.177 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.028,0.0,0.069,-0.452,-0.67,-0.298 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.208,0.097,0.333,0.245,-0.119,0.531 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.227,-0.404,-0.087 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.369,-0.012,0.652 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.193,0.137,0.247 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.353,0.251,0.43 +AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.277,0.447 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.192,-2.773,-0.411 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.953,-2.38,-0.237 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.958,-2.393,-0.241 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.881,-2.241,-0.188 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.872,-2.24,-0.181 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.809,-2.209,-0.142 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.905,-2.366,-0.197 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.665,-1.992,-0.055 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.653,-1.949,-0.043 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.676,-2.014,-0.06 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.586,-1.876,0.012 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.301,-1.412,0.175 +AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.043,-1.076,0.378 +AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.014,-1.022,0.397 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.067,-0.536 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.797,-0.399 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.825,-0.393 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.518,-0.722,-0.33 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.504,-0.709,-0.316 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.448,-0.611,-0.288 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.549,-0.858,-0.284 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.313,-0.414,-0.213 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.447,-0.197 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.347,-0.545,-0.179 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.239,-0.328,-0.159 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.231,-0.212,0.585 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.736,0.639,0.833,0.291,0.18,0.398 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.315,0.204,0.42 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.151,-2.911,-1.507 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.878,-2.551,-1.326 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.883,-2.548,-1.336 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.799,-2.5,-1.204 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.717,-2.358,-1.178 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.676,-2.27,-1.166 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.573,-2.136,-1.094 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.167,-1.494,-2.073,-1.011 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.877,-1.202,-0.618 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.047,-1.434,-0.736 -Naive,AutoETS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.036,-0.626,0.39 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.73,-0.994,-0.505 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.264,0.167,0.361,-0.41,-0.661,-0.22 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.725,0.6,0.85,0.198,0.091,0.295 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.122,0.317 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.776,-0.774 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.371,-0.63 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.984,-1.389,-0.621 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.893,-1.279,-0.553 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.876,-1.258,-0.534 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.807,-1.152,-0.495 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.932,-1.47,-0.519 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.639,-0.922,-0.397 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.641,-0.945,-0.386 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.68,-1.04,-0.362 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.546,-0.756,-0.335 +Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.041,-0.607,0.518 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.275,0.15,0.4,-0.248,-0.419,-0.101 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.035,0.025,0.045 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.264,-3.051,-1.612 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.982,-2.694,-1.413 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.986,-2.676,-1.419 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.899,-2.623,-1.28 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.815,-2.486,-1.265 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.398,-1.256 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.665,-2.253,-1.171 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.167,-1.583,-2.193,-1.083 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.945,-1.285,-0.674 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.121,-1.54,-0.796 -Drift,AutoETS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.067,-0.686,0.375 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.792,-1.074,-0.561 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.461,-0.725,-0.256 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.036,-0.047,-0.026 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.032,0.021,0.044 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.3,-1.866,-0.83 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.04,-1.458,-0.682 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.467,-0.677 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.356,-0.603 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.938,-1.342,-0.582 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.866,-1.232,-0.544 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.996,-1.564,-0.573 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.988,-0.444 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.695,-1.006,-0.433 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.736,-1.111,-0.401 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.597,-0.81,-0.383 +Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.014,-0.659,0.505 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.289,-0.465,-0.138 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.033,-0.046,-0.022 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv index a1ad1fa6515a735d3acf50e5bb89819fb38c4004..b5d270e1cda7f10c6a720fcf1b7ea0333e4944a4 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.611,0.889,0.092,0.049,0.143 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.098,0.053,0.148 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.123,0.071,0.178 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.09,0.049,0.133 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.15,0.102,0.204 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.171,0.12,0.225 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.167,0.122,0.215 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.234,0.365 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.241,0.36 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.254,0.382 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.261,0.407 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.415,0.342,0.486 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.339,0.475 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.376,0.508 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.111,0.389,-0.102,-0.166,-0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.006,-0.011,0.023 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.347,0.667,0.034,-0.006,0.077 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.722,0.556,0.861,-0.003,-0.094,0.065 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.722,0.931,0.064,0.04,0.093 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.087,0.055,0.122 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.082,0.058,0.106 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.227,0.156,0.296 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.226,0.167,0.286 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.247,0.179,0.315 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.264,0.186,0.341 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.356,0.279,0.429 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.345,0.278,0.415 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.388,0.317,0.454 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.108,-0.173,-0.056 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.006,-0.023,0.011 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.067,0.202 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.133,0.063,0.207 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.008,0.135 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.191,0.119,0.266 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.186,0.116,0.256 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.207,0.141,0.269 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.17,0.328 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.208,0.142,0.275 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.188,0.33 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.199,0.353 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.203,0.387 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.399,0.29,0.491 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.288,0.436 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.332,0.512 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.253,-0.072 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.611,0.444,0.778,0.028,-0.012,0.067 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.694,0.528,0.833,-0.009,-0.099,0.061 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.058,0.038,0.082 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.082,0.052,0.116 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.077,0.048,0.106 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.223,0.159,0.291 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.221,0.165,0.279 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.243,0.179,0.308 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.26,0.188,0.333 -TiRex,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.352,0.278,0.423 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.341,0.274,0.408 -TiRex,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.384,0.317,0.447 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.14,-0.216,-0.077 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.333,0.653,-0.035,-0.084,0.005 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.389,0.222,0.556,-0.029,-0.072,0.012 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.639,0.472,0.806,-0.038,-0.138,0.043 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.5,0.806,0.031,-0.006,0.072 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.694,0.542,0.833,0.055,0.009,0.103 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.05,0.003,0.092 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.2,0.108,0.282 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.199,0.122,0.275 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.221,0.14,0.298 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.239,0.148,0.323 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.334,0.244,0.415 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.322,0.232,0.406 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.367,0.288,0.442 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.099,-0.154,-0.051 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.278,0.139,0.444,0.003,-0.07,0.086 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.306,0.167,0.472,0.009,-0.065,0.09 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.361,0.194,0.528,0.036,-0.045,0.122 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.07,-0.215,0.048 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.068,0.037,0.103 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.062,0.034,0.095 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.086,0.053,0.125 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.137,0.052,0.228 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.088,0.049,0.127 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.077,0.221 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.167,0.09,0.251 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.188,0.087,0.297 +TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.307,0.2,0.396 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.19,0.34 +TiRex,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.34,0.247,0.421 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.261,-0.068 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.071,-0.223,0.052 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.037,0.101 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.061,0.032,0.094 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.086,0.043,0.132 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.045,0.232 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.087,0.052,0.122 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.068,0.228 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.166,0.08,0.258 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.079,0.303 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.307,0.194,0.403 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.266,0.186,0.344 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.339,0.237,0.429 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.156,-0.008 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.066,-0.051,0.177 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.066,-0.055,0.182 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.333,0.667,0.067,-0.013,0.148 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.556,0.389,0.722,0.09,0.009,0.171 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.639,0.472,0.806,0.085,0.012,0.159 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.847,0.722,0.944,0.229,0.152,0.306 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.228,0.162,0.298 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.249,0.173,0.326 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.266,0.181,0.352 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.358,0.267,0.448 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.875,1.0,0.347,0.269,0.421 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.39,0.306,0.472 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.177,-0.257,-0.113 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.069,0.278,-0.068,-0.102,-0.041 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.062,-0.089,-0.039 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.194,0.5,-0.032,-0.077,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.667,-0.071,-0.173,0.013 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.486,0.764,0.025,-0.002,0.054 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.639,0.472,0.806,0.02,-0.009,0.044 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.175,0.098,0.246 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.173,0.106,0.234 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.196,0.123,0.266 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.214,0.134,0.293 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.312,0.23,0.387 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.3,0.225,0.37 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.346,0.272,0.413 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.207,-0.291,-0.137 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.095,-0.139,-0.058 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.089,-0.131,-0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.306,0.167,0.458,-0.059,-0.115,-0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.444,0.278,0.611,-0.098,-0.206,-0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.236,0.514,-0.025,-0.057,0.002 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,0.005,0.24 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.008,0.231 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.146,0.042,0.24 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.194,0.085,0.292 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.148,0.034,0.25 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.101,0.291 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.222,0.109,0.322 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.242,0.11,0.353 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.352,0.228,0.461 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.315,0.215,0.405 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.383,0.264,0.482 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.236,-0.362,-0.135 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.073,-0.115,-0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.112,-0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.148,-0.317,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.417,0.75,-0.005,-0.045,0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.154,0.076,0.223 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.152,0.078,0.218 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.175,0.102,0.245 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.194,0.107,0.277 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.294,0.215,0.371 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.283,0.204,0.35 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.33,0.256,0.395 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.201,-0.274,-0.139 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.09,-0.119,-0.062 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.083,-0.119,-0.051 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.053,-0.102,-0.003 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.361,0.194,0.528,-0.093,-0.189,-0.013 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.361,0.194,0.528,-0.02,-0.046,0.009 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.583,0.005,-0.028,0.043 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.158,0.083,0.232 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.157,0.092,0.221 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.18,0.108,0.25 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.198,0.116,0.279 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.298,0.214,0.377 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.286,0.212,0.357 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.333,0.254,0.403 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.426,-0.574,-0.305 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.294,-0.421,-0.185 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.287,-0.41,-0.189 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.251,-0.393,-0.121 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.153,0.056,0.278,-0.298,-0.44,-0.18 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.212,-0.326,-0.108 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.182,-0.287,-0.082 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.188,-0.302,-0.09 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.475,0.3,0.65,-0.006,-0.032,0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.75,0.02,-0.025,0.064 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.074,-0.033,0.18 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.021,-0.011,0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.086,-0.014,0.17 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.008,0.208 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.129,0.008,0.253 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.257,0.121,0.363 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.119,0.299 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.176,0.39 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.229,-0.345,-0.131 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.066,-0.104,-0.036 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.065,-0.104,-0.033 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.141,-0.301,-0.008 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.35,0.7,0.006,-0.02,0.031 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.751,0.026,-0.01,0.064 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.08,-0.017,0.174 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.027,-0.001,0.058 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.092,0.002,0.17 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.112,0.023,0.2 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.135,0.024,0.244 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.261,0.134,0.365 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.218,0.132,0.3 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.296,0.187,0.39 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.261,-0.368,-0.164 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.095,-0.142,-0.056 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.094,-0.152,-0.045 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.172,-0.317,-0.044 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.675,-0.02,-0.068,0.025 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.249,0.675,-0.027,-0.068,0.009 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.055,-0.018,0.129 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.042,0.045 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.067,0.005,0.124 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.088,0.024,0.156 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.112,0.022,0.207 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.241,0.132,0.329 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.197,0.128,0.262 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.182,0.356 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.335,-0.487,-0.205 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.296,-0.055 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.302,-0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.24,-0.412,-0.093 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.08,-0.219,0.032 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.087,-0.211,0.016 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.058,-0.148,0.017 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.431,0.75,-0.002,-0.037,0.031 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.026,-0.002,0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.048,0.013,0.087 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.166,0.105,0.229 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.917,1.0,0.152,0.119,0.191 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.208,0.15,0.262 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.561,-0.318 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.292,-0.401,-0.201 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.284,-0.386,-0.198 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.249,-0.379,-0.139 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.296,-0.424,-0.193 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.209,-0.306,-0.119 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.179,-0.279,-0.085 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.186,-0.284,-0.102 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.25,0.569,0.002,-0.032,0.036 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.057,-0.184,0.045 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,-0.03,0.049 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.035,0.004,0.065 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.06,0.016,0.115 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.11,0.277 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.151,0.109,0.188 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.235,0.159,0.308 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.263,-0.379,-0.165 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.096,-0.146,-0.052 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.095,-0.139,-0.055 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.173,-0.334,-0.035 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.022,-0.055,0.011 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.028,-0.062,0.001 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.047,0.04 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.054,-0.047,0.156 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.066,-0.032,0.151 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.087,-0.006,0.183 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.11,-0.008,0.23 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.24,0.101,0.351 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.196,0.103,0.284 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.276,0.155,0.379 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.493,-0.231 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.174,-0.284,-0.083 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.173,-0.296,-0.073 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.41,-0.113 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.094,-0.205,0.014 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.101,-0.204,-0.002 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.072,-0.142,-0.005 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.052,0.029 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.071,-0.179,0.031 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.028,-0.011,0.066 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.611,0.444,0.75,0.049,0.0,0.101 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.611,0.861,0.168,0.103,0.23 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.833,0.986,0.154,0.112,0.194 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.209,0.147,0.266 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.464,-0.617,-0.34 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.329,-0.459,-0.217 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.321,-0.444,-0.219 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.284,-0.424,-0.163 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.332,-0.484,-0.21 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.244,-0.362,-0.141 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.213,-0.324,-0.113 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.219,-0.333,-0.121 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.026,-0.054,0.002 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.028,-0.071,0.011 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.022,-0.021,0.062 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.047,-0.015,0.12 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.187,0.107,0.262 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.139,0.1,0.176 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.155,0.292 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.546,-0.249 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.2,-0.335,-0.099 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.2,-0.348,-0.087 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.285,-0.475,-0.123 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.119,-0.263,-0.008 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.126,-0.25,-0.024 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.185,-0.024 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.036,-0.069,-0.004 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.095,-0.223,0.006 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.023,-0.066,0.021 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.556,0.389,0.694,0.023,-0.007,0.058 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.144,0.084,0.204 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.13,0.093,0.168 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.187,0.133,0.239 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.497,-0.687,-0.353 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.359,-0.519,-0.229 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.351,-0.499,-0.231 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.313,-0.477,-0.173 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.363,-0.542,-0.221 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.139,0.028,0.278,-0.272,-0.413,-0.155 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.241,-0.383,-0.12 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.247,-0.387,-0.131 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.05,-0.095,-0.013 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.389,0.25,0.556,-0.052,-0.112,-0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.444,0.306,0.611,-0.023,-0.061,0.007 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.026,-0.019,0.079 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.168,0.076,0.251 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.079,0.164 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.208,0.134,0.278 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.631,-0.254 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.232,-0.422,-0.095 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.231,-0.436,-0.086 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.319,-0.545,-0.124 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.149,-0.338,-0.008 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.156,-0.323,-0.025 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.126,-0.261,-0.023 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.063,-0.13,-0.016 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.124,-0.298,0.008 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.05,-0.137,0.015 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.026,-0.086,0.019 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.694,0.556,0.833,0.125,0.055,0.195 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.847,0.722,0.944,0.11,0.067,0.154 -AutoETS,Drift,0.806,0.667,0.944,0.168,0.105,0.232 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.711,-0.944,-0.52 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.553,-0.752,-0.386 -Naive,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.543,-0.732,-0.386 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.5,-0.71,-0.323 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.557,-0.81,-0.364 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.453,-0.632,-0.298 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.417,-0.59,-0.273 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.425,-0.605,-0.273 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.2,-0.298,-0.118 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.139,0.389,-0.202,-0.299,-0.115 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.169,-0.256,-0.091 -Naive,AutoETS,0.306,0.167,0.444,-0.142,-0.242,-0.058 +AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.146,0.035,0.239 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.028,0.152 +AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.187,0.093,0.267 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.663,-0.964,-0.408 +Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.443,-0.656,-0.25 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.442,-0.676,-0.24 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.544,-0.854,-0.296 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.345,-0.569,-0.138 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.353,-0.574,-0.155 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.318,-0.491,-0.152 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.246,-0.383,-0.124 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.316,-0.541,-0.112 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.229,-0.355,-0.12 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.202,-0.335,-0.082 +Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.171,-0.315,-0.037 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.486,0.361,0.611,-0.017,-0.086,0.04 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.033,0.067 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-0.903,-0.512 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.527,-0.71,-0.385 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.518,-0.689,-0.378 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.475,-0.682,-0.302 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.056,0.0,0.125,-0.531,-0.729,-0.368 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.429,-0.588,-0.29 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.394,-0.539,-0.256 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.401,-0.556,-0.269 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.042,0.0,0.083,-0.18,-0.236,-0.135 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.014,0.167,-0.182,-0.24,-0.127 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.149,-0.203,-0.103 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.153,0.056,0.278,-0.123,-0.182,-0.071 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.514,0.389,0.639,0.017,-0.042,0.079 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.375,0.225,0.525,-0.058,-0.148,0.031 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.026,0.071 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.772,-0.404 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.514,-0.235 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.363,-0.524,-0.228 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.46,-0.681,-0.274 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.271,-0.426,-0.135 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.279,-0.429,-0.152 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.246,-0.354,-0.147 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.177,-0.231,-0.122 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.244,-0.396,-0.115 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.162,-0.213,-0.111 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.136,-0.197,-0.086 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.179,-0.029 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.625,0.475,0.775,0.055,-0.032,0.129 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.065,0.009,0.124 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.8,-1.032,-0.603 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.634,-0.832,-0.463 -Drift,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.624,-0.808,-0.465 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.579,-0.792,-0.404 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.638,-0.895,-0.441 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.529,-0.705,-0.373 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.491,-0.654,-0.345 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.499,-0.675,-0.341 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.262,-0.355,-0.176 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.265,-0.363,-0.173 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.23,-0.313,-0.154 -Drift,AutoETS,0.194,0.056,0.333,-0.202,-0.303,-0.117 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.071,-0.034 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.07,-0.141,-0.01 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.1,0.03,0.167 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-1.051,-0.497 +Drift,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.515,-0.727,-0.327 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.514,-0.75,-0.311 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.621,-0.932,-0.359 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.638,-0.213 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.421,-0.639,-0.23 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.384,-0.552,-0.223 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.308,-0.445,-0.189 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.382,-0.61,-0.183 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.412,-0.184 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.262,-0.386,-0.155 +Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.23,-0.365,-0.103 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.076,-0.026 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.111,-0.2,-0.031 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv index 1923f8b568f00699f79d8ff9ad8ffa645e59b5c9..afeed17223ea90ccdf139cf6f287e297265d5c52 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.094,0.054,0.139 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.778,0.639,0.89,0.088,0.048,0.134 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.12,0.068,0.175 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.125,0.072,0.181 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.15,0.106,0.199 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.178,0.134,0.224 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.175,0.256 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.34,0.48 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.287,0.402 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.388,0.532 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.469,0.76 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.486,0.632 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.69,0.624,0.742 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.701,0.639,0.752 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.104,-0.161,-0.057 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.06,0.196 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.121,0.056,0.189 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.071,-0.006,0.147 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.114,0.243 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.179,0.113,0.245 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.203,0.132,0.268 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.215,0.374 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.199,0.314 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.211,0.352 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.255,0.432 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.332,0.765 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.404,0.561 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.488,0.669 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.505,0.682 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.244,-0.064 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.444,0.278,0.611,-0.007,-0.025,0.012 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.611,0.472,0.778,0.029,-0.01,0.067 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.722,0.583,0.861,0.034,-0.058,0.114 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.061,0.041,0.084 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.833,1.0,0.093,0.065,0.125 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.133,0.105,0.162 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.348,0.266,0.425 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.277,0.223,0.334 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.406,0.322,0.484 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.6,0.414,0.737 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.436,0.592 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.586,0.716 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.67,0.601,0.727 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.222,0.11,0.361,-0.096,-0.155,-0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.556,0.389,0.722,0.007,-0.012,0.025 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.063,-0.209,0.061 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.091 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.06,0.034,0.093 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,0.051,0.13 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.116,0.279 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.113,0.191 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.118,0.243 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.253,0.167,0.338 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.526,0.225,0.736 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.332,0.489 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.429,0.611 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.448,0.625 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.138,-0.233,-0.059 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.014,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.347,0.667,0.035,-0.006,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.722,0.556,0.861,0.041,-0.05,0.117 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.722,0.931,0.068,0.043,0.095 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.099,0.07,0.133 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.139,0.114,0.163 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.352,0.271,0.429 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.283,0.226,0.34 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.41,0.328,0.488 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.601,0.416,0.738 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.443,0.593 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.59,0.718 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.604,0.729 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.137,-0.211,-0.073 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.389,0.222,0.528,-0.029,-0.072,0.01 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.333,0.653,-0.037,-0.087,0.006 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.611,0.444,0.75,0.006,-0.1,0.099 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.639,0.486,0.778,0.033,-0.005,0.074 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.639,0.486,0.792,0.066,0.016,0.118 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.108,0.065,0.148 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.328,0.229,0.421 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.256,0.179,0.33 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.389,0.289,0.479 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.59,0.398,0.736 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.501,0.407,0.588 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.568,0.711 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.584,0.722 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.143,-0.22,-0.078 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.278,0.139,0.417,-0.036,-0.128,0.054 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.278,0.139,0.444,-0.043,-0.133,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.389,0.25,0.556,-0.006,-0.11,0.091 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.057,-0.2,0.063 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.038,0.097 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.066,0.036,0.099 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.093,0.047,0.143 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.202,0.117,0.289 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.156,0.12,0.192 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.184,0.119,0.251 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.257,0.165,0.346 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.527,0.231,0.737 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.331,0.495 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.428,0.616 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.45,0.629 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.077,-0.172,0.006 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.059,-0.065,0.173 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.054,-0.068,0.167 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.528,0.361,0.694,0.028,-0.065,0.117 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.333,0.667,0.06,-0.029,0.146 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.527,0.806,0.102,0.019,0.185 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.847,0.736,0.944,0.324,0.249,0.404 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.252,0.179,0.323 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.385,0.3,0.463 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.861,0.722,0.972,0.59,0.399,0.738 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.875,1.0,0.498,0.409,0.586 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.645,0.574,0.702 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.658,0.59,0.713 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.176,-0.249,-0.118 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.065,-0.092,-0.043 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.069,0.278,-0.072,-0.105,-0.045 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.361,0.222,0.514,-0.035,-0.08,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.472,0.306,0.639,-0.028,-0.132,0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.653,0.514,0.778,0.034,0.007,0.063 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.077,0.05,0.1 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.305,0.216,0.389 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.231,0.168,0.291 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.368,0.275,0.453 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.577,0.381,0.726 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.484,0.397,0.563 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.635,0.558,0.699 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.648,0.575,0.71 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.217,-0.289,-0.155 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.167,-0.102,-0.143,-0.069 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.11,-0.153,-0.075 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.361,0.208,0.514,-0.071,-0.133,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.667,-0.064,-0.171,0.028 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.347,0.222,0.486,-0.035,-0.068,-0.007 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.117,-0.005,0.229 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.116,-0.01,0.228 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.142,0.033,0.24 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.244,0.136,0.336 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.201,0.092,0.303 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.228,0.116,0.318 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.297,0.169,0.408 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.551,0.27,0.751 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.448,0.334,0.545 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.559,0.436,0.655 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.575,0.456,0.668 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.322,-0.129 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.1,-0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.107,-0.039 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.132,-0.296,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.722,0.583,0.861,0.045,0.007,0.078 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.281,0.19,0.364 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.204,0.138,0.269 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.346,0.252,0.43 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.889,0.778,0.972,0.563,0.36,0.716 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.466,0.38,0.546 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.622,0.547,0.685 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.636,0.563,0.697 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.274,-0.343,-0.212 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.154,-0.193,-0.118 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.162,-0.195,-0.129 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.121,-0.174,-0.07 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.194,0.473,-0.114,-0.227,-0.02 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.083,-0.111,-0.052 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.278,0.139,0.417,-0.047,-0.084,-0.007 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.611,0.889,0.247,0.146,0.343 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.167,0.095,0.234 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.315,0.213,0.411 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.544,0.328,0.706 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.441,0.349,0.526 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.605,0.521,0.676 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.619,0.537,0.688 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.692,-0.922,-0.515 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.533,-0.739,-0.362 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.543,-0.752,-0.372 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.489,-0.727,-0.298 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.153,0.056,0.264,-0.48,-0.678,-0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.439,-0.635,-0.275 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.391,-0.572,-0.235 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.111,0.389,-0.329,-0.523,-0.172 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.525,0.35,0.7,-0.001,-0.023,0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.028,-0.02,0.076 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.144,0.053,0.238 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.065,0.127 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.055,0.194 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.106,0.299 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.498,0.179,0.722 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.375,0.282,0.455 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.501,0.387,0.59 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.519,0.411,0.602 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.218,-0.324,-0.127 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.064,-0.102,-0.036 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.07,-0.11,-0.038 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.131,-0.295,0.009 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.475,0.3,0.65,0.001,-0.022,0.023 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.029,-0.012,0.07 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.145,0.063,0.23 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.096,0.066,0.128 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.065,0.19 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.205,0.115,0.291 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.501,0.186,0.725 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.375,0.287,0.452 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.502,0.387,0.587 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.519,0.41,0.603 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.366,-0.152 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.096,-0.149,-0.054 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.102,-0.167,-0.049 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.165,-0.316,-0.034 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.029,-0.082,0.019 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.03,-0.075,0.012 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.12,0.055,0.184 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.069,0.019,0.123 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.101,0.059,0.146 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.112,0.251 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.488,0.156,0.72 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.279,0.424 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.378,0.569 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.402,0.583 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.597,-0.273 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.387,-0.131 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.253,-0.406,-0.133 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.324,-0.506,-0.158 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.169,-0.313,-0.056 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.17,-0.298,-0.067 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.136,-0.226,-0.059 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.444,0.292,0.611,-0.107,-0.192,-0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.861,0.75,0.944,0.09,0.054,0.125 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.833,0.694,0.944,0.438,0.168,0.642 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.764,0.958,0.258,0.16,0.351 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.475,0.396,0.546 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.417,0.565 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.671,-0.403 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.384,-0.501,-0.287 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.394,-0.516,-0.292 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.344,-0.493,-0.219 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.111,0.028,0.222,-0.337,-0.477,-0.218 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.3,-0.41,-0.201 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.256,-0.368,-0.161 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.2,-0.306,-0.104 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.556,0.389,0.708,0.097,0.037,0.161 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.058,-0.181,0.048 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.022,-0.075,0.021 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.07,0.018,0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.429,0.064,0.691 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.269,0.21,0.321 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.417,0.314,0.502 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.339,0.519 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.347,-0.457,-0.248 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.236,-0.127 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.237,-0.136 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.251,-0.435,-0.101 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.145,-0.069 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.106,-0.147,-0.07 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.074,-0.14,-0.019 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.055,-0.05,0.154 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.034,-0.055,0.116 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.12,0.006,0.226 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.447,0.097,0.697 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.203,0.402 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.449,0.314,0.553 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.468,0.337,0.567 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.395,-0.544,-0.267 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.321,-0.134 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.226,-0.336,-0.135 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.296,-0.466,-0.132 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.241,-0.058 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.235,-0.069 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.112,-0.17,-0.062 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.021,-0.022,0.07 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.035,-0.131,0.052 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.778,0.639,0.917,0.178,0.113,0.248 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.806,0.667,0.917,0.473,0.226,0.662 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.972,0.931,1.0,0.33,0.255,0.414 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.526,0.45,0.596 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.469,0.612 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.859,-1.137,-0.633 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.684,-0.939,-0.476 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.696,-0.952,-0.488 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.636,-0.921,-0.407 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.626,-0.862,-0.429 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.581,-0.827,-0.38 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.528,-0.754,-0.338 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.46,-0.698,-0.271 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.139,0.056,0.25,-0.099,-0.142,-0.057 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.222,0.083,0.361,-0.217,-0.33,-0.127 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.089,0.037,0.149 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.435,0.075,0.691 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.219,0.346 +AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.327,0.513 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.449,0.355,0.529 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.759,-0.343 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.338,-0.51,-0.2 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.346,-0.529,-0.198 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.423,-0.689,-0.203 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.256,-0.426,-0.119 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.258,-0.411,-0.13 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.334,-0.126 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.075,-0.132,-0.018 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.137,-0.293,-0.006 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.098,-0.175,-0.038 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.417,0.25,0.583,0.392,0.104,0.615 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.806,1.0,0.184,0.071,0.284 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.423,0.342,0.498 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.444,0.366,0.516 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.744,-3.165,-0.884 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.498,-2.798,-0.707 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.508,-2.816,-0.713 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.438,-2.792,-0.661 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.139,0.028,0.278,-1.439,-2.811,-0.663 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.365,-2.647,-0.615 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.111,0.028,0.222,-1.29,-2.525,-0.563 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.056,0.306,-1.191,-2.396,-0.489 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.056,0.306,-0.779,-1.795,-0.201 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.194,0.083,0.333,-0.896,-1.963,-0.293 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.417,0.75,-0.646,-1.599,-0.116 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.392,-0.012,0.671 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.158,0.27 +AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.272,0.447 +AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.299,0.464 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.396,-3.252,-0.496 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.109,-2.782,-0.291 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.115,-2.802,-0.3 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-1.228,-3.019,-0.37 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.99,-2.591,-0.219 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.003,-2.631,-0.228 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.952,-2.567,-0.185 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.75,-2.233,-0.069 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.809,-2.3,-0.108 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.769,-2.239,-0.081 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.644,-2.042,0.012 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.764,0.639,0.889,-0.348,-1.17,0.105 -AutoETS,Naive,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.013,-0.682,0.376 -AutoETS,Drift,0.861,0.75,0.972,0.043,-0.642,0.398 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.279,-1.721,-0.947 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.064,-1.454,-0.774 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.079,-1.459,-0.794 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.005,-1.426,-0.687 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.056,0.0,0.125,-0.993,-1.413,-0.691 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.938,-1.289,-0.657 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.873,-1.201,-0.614 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.79,-1.11,-0.536 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.042,0.236,-0.347,-0.54,-0.19 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.028,0.0,0.069,-0.491,-0.705,-0.342 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.194,-0.226,-0.396,-0.076 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.236,0.111,0.361,0.258,-0.118,0.539 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.32,-1.467,0.188 +AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.053,-1.109,0.384 +AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.021,-1.06,0.404 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.95,-1.275,-0.677 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.703,-0.957,-0.497 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-0.982,-0.495 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.811,-1.198,-0.501 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.599,-0.835,-0.393 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.601,-0.824,-0.402 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.387 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.368,-0.473,-0.266 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.447,-0.673,-0.255 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.529,-0.28 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.273,-0.369,-0.188 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.242,-0.231,0.595 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.736,0.639,0.833,0.293,0.176,0.399 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.944,0.861,1.0,0.319,0.205,0.426 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.223,-2.877,-1.657 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.919,-2.524,-1.417 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.939,-2.551,-1.437 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.835,-2.456,-1.316 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.818,-2.357,-1.348 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.741,-2.319,-1.263 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.649,-2.175,-1.209 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.53,-2.083,-1.087 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.904,-1.202,-0.656 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.109,-1.478,-0.818 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.733,-0.992,-0.52 -Naive,AutoETS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.013,-0.603,0.405 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.264,0.167,0.361,-0.414,-0.663,-0.214 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.725,0.6,0.85,0.202,0.09,0.304 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.23,0.125,0.325 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.443,-2.025,-0.952 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.135,-1.569,-0.753 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.148,-1.606,-0.749 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.27,-1.898,-0.773 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.004,-1.437,-0.632 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.006,-1.422,-0.631 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.948,-1.319,-0.609 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.715,-1.009,-0.457 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.814,-1.235,-0.458 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-1.055,-0.486 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.807,-0.374 +Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.051,-0.623,0.526 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.275,0.15,0.4,-0.253,-0.437,-0.099 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.972,0.917,1.0,0.037,0.026,0.048 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.345,-3.032,-1.768 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.029,-2.657,-1.506 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.051,-2.684,-1.528 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.943,-2.592,-1.401 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.925,-2.483,-1.437 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.845,-2.446,-1.352 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.028,0.0,0.083,-1.749,-2.301,-1.291 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.056,0.0,0.139,-1.626,-2.201,-1.162 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.977,-1.297,-0.717 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.189,-1.576,-0.884 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.799,-1.065,-0.578 -Drift,AutoETS,0.139,0.028,0.25,-0.045,-0.66,0.391 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.056,0.0,0.139,-0.468,-0.743,-0.258 -Drift,Naive,0.028,0.0,0.083,-0.038,-0.05,-0.027 +Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.036,0.022,0.051 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.534,-2.145,-1.018 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.214,-1.665,-0.811 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.693,-0.82 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.353,-2.009,-0.838 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.078,-1.51,-0.697 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.08,-1.516,-0.696 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.02,-1.398,-0.672 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.778,-1.08,-0.514 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.88,-1.308,-0.508 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.816,-1.123,-0.55 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.654,-0.866,-0.426 +Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.021,-0.678,0.515 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.3,-0.481,-0.143 +Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.037,-0.053,-0.022 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 61f0b21f79034cdb684e07dfedce139b4b30521f..8ecc18bc63bac9b97163cbed6d474bebd94c16cd 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.59398496240601,32.78464875613191,0.0,0.3596606613432836,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,81.57894736842105,27.57437989399548,0.0,0.12988266882352942,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.20300751879697,28.82143712250208,0.0,0.597465887542373,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,71.2406015037594,27.5654560234301,0.0,0.2502934766666667,0.3684210526315789,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.60902255639098,26.40238750826901,0.0,0.15470306411764706,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.41353383458647,25.380773074933096,0.0,10.389540521333334,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -Sundial-Base,63.533834586466156,23.22198339111693,0.0,8.139341805,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,50.93984962406015,22.233156400772458,0.0,68.84249116642856,0.0,10.526315789473683 -Stat. Ensemble,43.98496240601503,18.848566093602017,0.0,153.52471474263552,0.0,5.263157894736842 -AutoETS,36.46616541353383,17.681236252986597,0.0,3.5267286662745096,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,34.58646616541354,14.10980737202614,0.0,74.68622603863636,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,32.70676691729323,13.835663521549623,0.0,3.1771899728377058,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.345864661654133,0.0,0.0,0.42818580019607844,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.406015037593985,-11.41575828657999,0.0,0.4454413803921568,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.390977443609022,-12.843541774596613,0.0,0.4046081805882353,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,87.5,32.33462583489032,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,82.14285714285714,27.393757851738563,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285714,28.58993577814578,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,71.07142857142857,27.327119457216774,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.57142857142856,26.21901130113915,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,25.161403711604645,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,64.28571428571429,23.2064084542026,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,51.25000000000001,22.24063378407398,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 +Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,19.015945347692732,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,36.07142857142858,17.603485534435016,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,33.92857142857143,14.206772558259006,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,32.85714285714285,14.04647577833794,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.392857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.142857142857146,-12.05830008930513,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.071428571428572,-13.72534923283335,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 38e24a6d8a0b95300770254a2240e7cbce900410..182b6536def361a147efb73ad650cdd6f03117e2 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.47368421052634,40.72202740438211,0.0,0.3596606613432836,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,85.71428571428571,35.962093804890515,0.0,0.12988266882352942,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,80.82706766917292,36.471293916922356,0.0,0.597465887542373,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,75.0,35.502197955574765,0.0,0.2502934766666667,0.3684210526315789,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,73.87218045112782,34.80798173837572,0.0,0.15470306411764706,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.9172932330827,33.82862396618327,0.0,10.389540521333334,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,56.954887218045116,30.792818876420668,0.0,68.84249116642856,0.0,10.526315789473683 -Sundial-Base,47.36842105263158,26.67026914523769,0.0,8.139341805,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,41.72932330827067,23.05686979280783,0.0,153.52471474263552,0.0,5.263157894736842 -AutoARIMA,38.34586466165414,21.117177798039243,0.0,74.68622603863636,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,36.46616541353384,21.215845684791667,0.0,3.5267286662745096,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.93984962406015,15.397822263122318,0.0,3.1771899728377058,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.85714285714286,0.0,0.0,0.42818580019607844,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.774436090225562,-42.68722213493872,0.0,0.4454413803921568,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.7593984962406015,-43.44842182927362,0.0,0.4046081805882353,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,89.28571428571429,40.241553662568045,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,86.07142857142858,35.70932539579903,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,81.78571428571428,36.215123642926486,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,75.0,35.235748261795464,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,73.92857142857142,34.57369587246277,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,33.56878978918307,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.32142857142858,30.731316106319685,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 +Sundial-Base,47.14285714285714,26.53990685654952,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,42.142857142857146,23.310736729304406,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,38.214285714285715,21.22121312418056,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,35.35714285714285,20.12076697801173,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,26.071428571428573,15.776905389926565,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.035714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.642857142857144,-43.69147280742762,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.571428571428571,-44.7554216841189,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 9db3e83f5b4d02cb833d94bdc00cd4af04d4ccd4..7a26151826a061e5f35bd24cb746b86860a3b6ec 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.96992481203009,35.17312881509809,0.0,0.3596606613432836,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.57894736842105,30.54536278105392,0.0,0.597465887542373,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -TiRex,80.07518796992483,30.263088692563134,0.0,0.12988266882352942,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.48872180451127,29.645021014181204,0.0,0.2502934766666667,0.3684210526315789,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,67.4812030075188,27.247500642971858,0.0,0.15470306411764706,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,63.90977443609023,27.341499943772085,0.0,10.389540521333334,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -Sundial-Base,60.90225563909774,24.785057960011926,0.0,8.139341805,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,56.57894736842105,25.96438655894233,0.0,68.84249116642856,0.0,10.526315789473683 -Stat. Ensemble,46.2406015037594,19.877790263543037,0.0,153.52471474263552,0.0,5.263157894736842 -AutoETS,36.84210526315789,18.906583814382373,0.0,3.5267286662745096,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.46616541353383,17.80299638057865,0.0,74.68622603863636,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,28.947368421052627,14.130105154815109,0.0,3.1771899728377058,0.0,0.0 -Naive,15.037593984962406,-11.021982498939442,0.0,0.4454413803921568,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.466165413533833,0.0,0.0,0.42818580019607844,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.015037593984962,-12.893233146761673,0.0,0.4046081805882353,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.21428571428572,34.73588594604664,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.5,30.331123145065753,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 +TiRex,80.35714285714286,30.04838154281978,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,70.0,29.395644929393384,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,67.14285714285715,27.11185183289192,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,62.85714285714287,27.120126304305725,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,61.78571428571429,24.782966216672285,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.321428571428555,25.898630077241936,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 +Stat. Ensemble,46.42857142857142,20.048347663551425,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,36.07142857142858,17.777947817676132,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,36.07142857142857,18.813705921644818,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,29.28571428571428,14.370876577265967,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 +Naive,14.64285714285714,-11.759514056529575,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.607142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 +Drift,5.714285714285714,-13.858459934925316,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 79aaef3d4815d28a49de29388934b2b89185f64e..c8c1c5778d270b691f9f71929822e85e04da66db 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.96992481203009,45.29856654701957,0.0,0.3596606613432836,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,84.21052631578948,40.94974112713733,0.0,0.12988266882352942,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.70676691729322,41.0218970729747,0.0,0.597465887542373,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,76.12781954887218,40.2743249336117,0.0,0.2502934766666667,0.3684210526315789,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.48872180451129,38.60134142004602,0.0,0.15470306411764706,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.9172932330827,38.52149108523811,0.0,10.389540521333334,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.09022556390977,36.87959299867466,0.0,68.84249116642856,0.0,10.526315789473683 -Sundial-Base,48.87218045112782,31.47325724719957,0.0,8.139341805,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,42.857142857142854,25.211002219656653,0.0,153.52471474263552,0.0,5.263157894736842 -AutoARIMA,41.35338345864661,25.867891976573688,0.0,74.68622603863636,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,34.21052631578947,22.633753236008815,0.0,3.5267286662745096,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,24.81203007518797,16.081197853860395,0.0,3.1771899728377058,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.849624060150376,0.0,0.0,0.42818580019607844,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.150375939849624,-42.95931711653955,0.0,0.4454413803921568,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.3834586466165413,-44.21938587611316,0.0,0.4046081805882353,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.21428571428571,44.77656337400558,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,84.28571428571429,40.60690863759879,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,83.57142857142857,40.69540369974936,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,75.71428571428572,39.91164248768357,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,70.35714285714286,38.313765874575154,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,38.175979444656846,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.96428571428571,36.67704253513349,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 +Sundial-Base,48.57142857142856,31.246086693430332,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,43.21428571428571,25.454460772291498,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,41.07142857142857,25.85193480620731,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,33.214285714285715,21.589312538875138,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.000000000000007,16.511025466699557,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.178571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.0,-44.1490350185211,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.214285714285714,-45.70449009907933,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv index 49df5ce72d6191136e4de511757a59670c2be9f9..4e1d6474d84d268a1dd4da8585ba42bfb8f1816d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.072,0.007,0.147 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.056,-0.005,0.12 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.072,0.01,0.139 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.087,0.033,0.147 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.099,0.033,0.164 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.125,0.051,0.21 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.136,0.054,0.222 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.172,0.11,0.231 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.183,0.115,0.243 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.144,0.287 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.22,0.152,0.291 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.256,0.413 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.306,0.486 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.32,0.486 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.078,-0.173,-0.007 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.018,-0.044,0.006 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.0,-0.027,0.023 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.016,-0.011,0.042 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.029,-0.008,0.059 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.057,0.005,0.134 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.069,-0.052,0.166 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.108,0.06,0.159 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.12,0.065,0.172 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.157,0.101,0.218 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.159,0.097,0.234 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.214,0.359 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.277,0.423 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.293,0.421 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.059,-0.136,0.005 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.017,-0.006,0.043 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.004,0.116 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.068,0.007,0.144 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.069,0.013,0.135 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.083,0.034,0.145 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.052,0.194 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.096,0.031,0.163 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.13,0.052,0.21 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.164,0.11,0.226 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.118,0.24 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.141,0.283 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.149,0.284 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.255,0.4 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.313,0.486 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.33,0.491 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.131,0.004 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.017,-0.0,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.553,0.895,0.033,0.007,0.068 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.046,0.022,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.789,0.632,0.947,0.073,0.018,0.159 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.842,0.683,1.0,0.085,-0.037,0.187 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.123,0.078,0.172 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.135,0.089,0.186 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.115,0.237 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.174,0.109,0.256 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.218,0.383 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.281,0.44 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.3,0.435 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.078,-0.161,-0.01 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.0,-0.024,0.026 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.018,-0.037,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.016,-0.004,0.041 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.017,0.001,0.034 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.032,0.008,0.064 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.07,0.017,0.151 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.046,0.022,0.07 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.082,-0.026,0.178 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.075,0.164 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.133,0.089,0.18 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.111,0.229 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.244 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.221,0.371 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.286,0.442 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.306,0.441 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.073,-0.169,-0.007 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.017,-0.043,0.004 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.001,-0.025,0.024 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.013,0.041 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,0.002,0.123 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,-0.002,0.059 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.066,-0.053,0.152 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.103,0.06,0.153 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.119,0.07,0.168 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.154,0.1,0.217 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.155,0.096,0.223 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.214,0.351 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.281,0.426 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.427 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.074,-0.156,-0.014 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.035,-0.001 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.001,-0.024,0.024 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.342,0.658,0.016,-0.006,0.045 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.029,0.005,0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.057,-0.005,0.145 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.069,-0.056,0.175 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.107,0.065,0.155 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.12,0.076,0.169 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.157,0.097,0.223 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.099,0.238 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.205,0.369 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.271,0.428 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.289,0.424 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.095,-0.173,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.016,-0.044,0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.105,0.447,-0.034,-0.072,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.342,0.658,-0.016,-0.048,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.015,-0.006,0.043 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.005,0.136 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,0.005,0.052 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.05,0.167 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.103,0.064,0.146 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.118,0.076,0.163 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.153,0.096,0.221 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.096,0.23 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.208,0.361 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.275,0.427 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.292,0.425 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.09,-0.169,-0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.033,-0.069,-0.008 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.016,-0.043,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.015,-0.045,0.006 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.632,0.421,0.816,0.014,-0.031,0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.041,-0.003,0.106 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.054,-0.06,0.149 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.093,0.044,0.146 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.106,0.048,0.162 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.143,0.08,0.211 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.098,0.206 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.207,0.343 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.269,0.408 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.286,0.409 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.11,-0.197,-0.034 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.03,-0.063,0.008 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.048,-0.078,-0.022 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.03,-0.058,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.368,0.184,0.579,-0.014,-0.049,0.03 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.028,-0.046,0.13 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.04,-0.094,0.159 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.08,0.032,0.129 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.094,0.046,0.139 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.131,0.074,0.197 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.134,0.067,0.223 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.178,0.36 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.253,0.415 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.272,0.407 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.142,-0.265,-0.053 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.06,-0.154,-0.005 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.368,-0.079,-0.189,-0.018 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.06,-0.169,0.005 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.043,-0.118,0.003 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.029,-0.15,0.044 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.039,-0.003,0.099 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.029,0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.051,-0.061,0.137 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.044,0.137 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.049,0.158 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.205 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.093,0.197 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.207,0.334 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.274,0.412 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.289,0.414 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.241,-0.055 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.075,-0.178,-0.018 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.058,-0.14,-0.002 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.157,0.005 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.041,-0.11,0.003 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.013,-0.099,0.085 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.054,-0.053,0.133 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.067,-0.05,0.153 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.106,-0.007,0.196 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.109,0.07,0.152 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.194,0.27 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.311,0.249,0.376 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.251,0.39 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.157,-0.286,-0.057 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.074,-0.199,0.049 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.0,0.317,-0.093,-0.229,0.036 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.074,-0.212,0.053 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.057,-0.175,0.056 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.042,-0.188,0.086 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.013,-0.092,0.09 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.026,-0.135,0.044 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.012,-0.089,0.08 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,-0.051,0.126 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.068,-0.047,0.15 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.0,0.193 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.107,0.069,0.148 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.197,0.268 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.253,0.381 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.263,0.394 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.106,-0.194,-0.032 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.048,-0.075,-0.022 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.062,0.002 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.055,-0.005 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.049,0.028 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.025,-0.046,0.119 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.038,-0.089,0.144 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.076,0.034,0.121 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.049,0.133 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.071,0.19 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.067,0.212 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.179,0.345 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.257,0.414 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.279,0.409 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.149,-0.266,-0.055 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.089,-0.216,0.025 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.18,0.05 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.2,0.047 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.158,0.058 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.013,-0.087,0.082 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.169,0.082 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.605,0.395,0.816,0.042,-0.084,0.154 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.055,-0.083,0.173 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.095,-0.023,0.199 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.097,0.003,0.193 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.763,1.0,0.222,0.146,0.306 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.302,0.198,0.414 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.311,0.203,0.424 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.207,-0.3,-0.123 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.12,-0.189,-0.064 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.14,-0.208,-0.084 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.12,-0.183,-0.069 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.103,-0.17,-0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.088,-0.148,-0.033 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.057,-0.154,0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.395,0.184,0.605,-0.044,-0.182,0.077 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.04,-0.078,0.149 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,-0.066,0.169 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.094,-0.021,0.202 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.008,0.198 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.222,0.153,0.304 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.306,0.21,0.425 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.316,0.22,0.434 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.197,-0.291,-0.123 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.197,-0.081 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.115,-0.18,-0.063 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.114,-0.171,-0.068 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.098,-0.159,-0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.055,-0.144,0.048 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.082,-0.137,-0.036 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.041,-0.175,0.072 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.014,-0.014,0.037 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.055,0.008,0.105 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.058,-0.003,0.147 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.868,0.711,1.0,0.188,0.097,0.3 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.272,0.174,0.369 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.281,0.19,0.364 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.225,-0.322,-0.13 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.137,-0.207,-0.069 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.157,-0.228,-0.098 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.136,-0.203,-0.082 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.118,-0.193,-0.05 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.103,-0.161,-0.048 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.072,-0.181,0.048 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.059,-0.209,0.077 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.014,-0.038,0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,-0.009,0.042 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,0.005,0.104 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.058,0.002,0.143 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.19,0.101,0.291 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.183,0.374 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.288,0.199,0.374 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.218,-0.316,-0.133 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.154,-0.22,-0.098 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.135,-0.202,-0.075 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.134,-0.195,-0.083 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.188,-0.052 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.073,-0.176,0.045 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.154,-0.052 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.06,-0.203,0.062 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.017,-0.044,0.009 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.042,-0.012,0.096 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.045,-0.017,0.139 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.177,0.082,0.298 -AutoETS,Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.261,0.162,0.365 -AutoETS,Drift,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.271,0.179,0.36 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.278,-0.403,-0.168 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.186,-0.278,-0.112 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.207,-0.31,-0.13 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.186,-0.288,-0.107 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.167,-0.268,-0.087 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.151,-0.245,-0.08 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.119,-0.243,0.007 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.104,-0.248,0.023 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.058,-0.117,-0.008 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.043,-0.107,0.012 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.04,-0.015,0.097 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.041,-0.018,0.131 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.176,0.084,0.283 +AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.265,0.161,0.361 +AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.275,0.183,0.363 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.395,-0.164 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.297,-0.125 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.182,-0.278,-0.111 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.181,-0.283,-0.106 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.163,-0.258,-0.083 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.239,-0.0 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.146,-0.234,-0.076 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.103,-0.253,0.021 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.115,-0.005 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.107,0.015 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.003,-0.086,0.108 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.141,0.029,0.258 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.229,0.118,0.341 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.239,0.135,0.338 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.282,-0.411,-0.18 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.19,-0.306,-0.108 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.211,-0.345,-0.122 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.313,-0.109 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.171,-0.26,-0.108 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.155,-0.288,-0.072 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.122,-0.179,-0.075 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.108,-0.239,-0.003 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.062,-0.172,0.003 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.047,-0.161,0.017 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.003,-0.122,0.079 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.093,0.103 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.039,0.25 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.121,0.342 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.246,0.141,0.346 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.397,-0.175 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.204,-0.323,-0.12 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.287,-0.106 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.183,-0.298,-0.106 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.245,-0.102 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.119,-0.174,-0.074 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.27,-0.071 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.105,-0.247,-0.008 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.061,-0.167,-0.002 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.043,-0.15,0.018 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.115,0.085 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.138,0.088,0.185 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.15,0.299 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.236,0.157,0.316 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.488,-0.703,-0.345 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.381,-0.561,-0.273 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.621,-0.279 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.381,-0.584,-0.259 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.521,-0.261 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.562,-0.216 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.37,-0.241 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.237,-0.286,-0.44,-0.171 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.132,0.0,0.289,-0.232,-0.429,-0.108 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.215,-0.424,-0.089 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.164,-0.348,-0.03 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.161,-0.227,-0.096 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.14,0.092,0.186 +AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.163,0.308 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.244,0.171,0.325 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.668,-0.342 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.591,-0.283 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.541,-0.272 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.565,-0.263 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.501,-0.261 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.366,-0.246 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.526,-0.217 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.286,-0.436,-0.18 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.235,-0.411,-0.113 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.214,-0.395,-0.092 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.333,-0.04 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.163,-0.229,-0.101 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.102,0.024,0.19 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.114,0.005,0.211 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.658,-0.945,-0.442 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.734,-0.383 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.565,-0.784,-0.39 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.748,-0.373 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.689,-0.368 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.493,-0.708,-0.339 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.451,-0.601,-0.332 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.433,-0.706,-0.248 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.373,-0.584,-0.21 -Naive,AutoETS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.353,-0.575,-0.193 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.297,-0.517,-0.133 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.293,-0.427,-0.177 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.114,-0.235,-0.025 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.108,0.029,0.194 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.121,0.027,0.218 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-0.945,-0.455 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.569,-0.792,-0.4 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.743,-0.391 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.542,-0.746,-0.38 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.699,-0.378 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.459,-0.615,-0.338 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.497,-0.706,-0.346 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.441,-0.74,-0.266 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.384,-0.597,-0.223 +Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.36,-0.565,-0.192 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.306,-0.52,-0.138 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.445,-0.195 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.121,-0.24,-0.03 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.013,-0.028,0.042 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.679,-0.947,-0.471 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.728,-0.414 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.77,-0.428 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.736,-0.407 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.533,-0.693,-0.4 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.685,-0.374 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.64,-0.335 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.451,-0.737,-0.255 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.391,-0.573,-0.235 -Drift,AutoETS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.371,-0.562,-0.219 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.314,-0.511,-0.155 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.31,-0.461,-0.186 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.128,-0.267,-0.005 -Drift,Naive,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.013,-0.044,0.027 +Naive,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.015,-0.023,0.042 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.681,-0.963,-0.492 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.79,-0.441 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.745,-0.427 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.565,-0.739,-0.413 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.541,-0.708,-0.406 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.65,-0.356 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.52,-0.691,-0.387 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.463,-0.768,-0.282 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.404,-0.599,-0.248 +Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.38,-0.569,-0.224 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.326,-0.529,-0.164 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.323,-0.481,-0.206 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.137,-0.279,-0.028 +Drift,Naive,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.015,-0.043,0.023 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv index ee9e5d60b20e2cf9927d071022fb052903187347..988182f661966d508cc6f5839047a89ba89d1b84 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.074,0.01,0.148 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.067,0.006,0.136 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.081,0.018,0.15 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.091,0.033,0.156 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.104,0.032,0.176 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.143,0.057,0.23 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.192,0.124,0.268 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.23,0.16,0.297 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.249,0.171,0.325 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.248,0.17,0.309 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.218,0.381 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.333,0.491 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.585,0.5,0.668 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.504,0.666 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.08,-0.173,-0.011 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.07,0.01,0.142 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,0.008,0.13 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.077,0.019,0.148 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.033,0.151 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.1,0.031,0.173 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.06,0.221 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.187,0.125,0.255 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.157,0.29 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.162,0.318 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.252,0.186,0.316 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.211,0.369 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.335,0.481 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.506,0.665 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.512,0.666 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.076,-0.166,-0.01 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.008,-0.028,0.011 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.007,-0.017,0.029 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.018,0.0,0.037 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.032,-0.003,0.06 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.075,-0.05,0.179 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.127,0.08,0.194 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.168,0.113,0.227 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.128,0.256 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.187,0.126,0.246 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.177,0.314 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.298,0.435 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.475,0.621 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.48,0.621 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.072,-0.157,-0.006 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.008,-0.011,0.027 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.008,-0.026,0.008 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.007,-0.014,0.029 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,0.0,0.036 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.032,-0.002,0.06 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,-0.049,0.161 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.078,0.184 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.162,0.107,0.218 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.123,0.25 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.195,0.141,0.254 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.173,0.305 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.297,0.424 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.486,0.622 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.49,0.623 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.149,-0.008 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.008,-0.008,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.015,-0.002,0.035 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.684,0.5,0.868,0.026,0.005,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.684,0.5,0.868,0.04,0.009,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.789,0.63,0.947,0.082,-0.043,0.187 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.086,0.205 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.174,0.119,0.235 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.195,0.132,0.266 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.194,0.136,0.253 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.249,0.174,0.328 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.298,0.444 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.555,0.475,0.627 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.557,0.482,0.629 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.088,-0.176,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.007,-0.03,0.017 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.015,-0.036,0.002 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.002,0.034 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.025,0.005,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.04,0.01,0.068 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.079,-0.034,0.172 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.085,0.2 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.116,0.224 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.19,0.129,0.256 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.149,0.259 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.172,0.316 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.435 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.485,0.629 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.492,0.628 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.084,-0.174,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.007,-0.03,0.014 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.035,0.002 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.447,0.263,0.632,0.011,-0.007,0.035 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.025,-0.003,0.052 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.068,-0.063,0.182 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.12,0.065,0.2 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.162,0.11,0.218 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.119,0.252 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.181,0.127,0.236 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.167,0.318 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.355,0.287,0.437 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.469,0.623 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.474,0.624 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.1,-0.185,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.018,-0.039,-0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.316,0.132,0.5,-0.026,-0.052,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.553,0.368,0.737,-0.011,-0.036,0.007 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.3,0.6,0.01,-0.007,0.033 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.025,-0.004,0.05 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.055,0.163 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.065,0.194 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.155,0.105,0.208 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.117,0.248 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.141,0.245 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.163,0.305 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.286,0.426 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.477,0.622 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.483,0.624 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.178,-0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.018,-0.037,-0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.026,-0.048,-0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.4,0.7,-0.01,-0.034,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.015,-0.03,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.058,-0.066,0.162 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.067,0.173 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.153,0.096,0.215 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.174,0.11,0.245 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.173,0.113,0.23 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.165,0.299 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.288,0.42 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.465,0.618 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.471,0.616 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.116,-0.214,-0.033 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.033,-0.064,0.003 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.316,0.132,0.5,-0.042,-0.074,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.026,-0.055,0.003 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.015,-0.051,0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.026,0.048 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,-0.061,0.144 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.067,0.168 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.093,0.203 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.24 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.126,0.24 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.223,0.164,0.288 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.288,0.41 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.545,0.475,0.615 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.481,0.617 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.112,-0.209,-0.032 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.033,-0.063,0.002 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.041,-0.073,-0.01 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.026,-0.053,0.004 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.05,0.026 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.044,-0.096,0.167 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.098,0.026,0.193 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.14,0.08,0.202 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.161,0.093,0.234 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.16,0.105,0.214 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.218,0.14,0.307 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.261,0.432 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.536,0.454,0.613 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.461,0.612 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.168,-0.299,-0.06 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.081,-0.218,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.37,-0.089,-0.23,0.042 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.073,-0.223,0.059 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.062,-0.193,0.061 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.046,-0.2,0.088 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,-0.096,0.148 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.096,0.027,0.182 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.078,0.19 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.157,0.094,0.227 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.211,0.14,0.297 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.42 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.462,0.612 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.471,0.61 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.159,-0.283,-0.064 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.192,0.047 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.086,-0.207,0.033 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.195,0.052 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.168,0.058 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.173,0.087 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.056,-0.041,0.155 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.658,0.447,0.868,0.101,-0.015,0.208 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.123,-0.006,0.239 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.122,-0.022,0.233 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.182,0.063,0.292 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.868,1.0,0.308,0.216,0.405 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.405,0.627 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.518,0.404,0.623 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.237,-0.366,-0.141 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.145,-0.24,-0.087 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.258,-0.094 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.137,-0.25,-0.07 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.125,-0.21,-0.072 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.108,-0.239,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.06,-0.184,0.039 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.057,-0.026,0.15 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.097,-0.01,0.203 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.121,0.004,0.235 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.133,0.012,0.244 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.178,0.076,0.291 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.307,0.228,0.4 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.518,0.42,0.627 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.422,0.63 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.229,-0.342,-0.143 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.226,-0.085 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.152,-0.249,-0.093 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.241,-0.069 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.202,-0.071 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.106,-0.223,-0.027 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.061,-0.176,0.025 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.047,-0.065,0.136 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.07,-0.041,0.169 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.069,-0.049,0.162 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.133,0.07,0.194 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.221,0.313 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.404,0.568 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.404,0.573 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.298,-0.422,-0.191 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.202,-0.294,-0.127 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.211,-0.308,-0.135 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.193,-0.278,-0.124 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.18,-0.274,-0.106 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.163,-0.253,-0.087 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.342,0.132,0.553,-0.112,-0.262,0.015 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.049,-0.158,0.061 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.042,-0.066,0.128 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,-0.04,0.165 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,-0.033,0.174 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.071,0.189 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.223,0.311 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.412,0.568 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.412,0.573 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.408,-0.187 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.193,-0.279,-0.12 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.288,-0.131 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.263,-0.118 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.172,-0.255,-0.103 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.235,-0.085 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.107,-0.254,0.01 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.044,-0.147,0.061 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.025,-0.049,0.085 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.023,-0.039,0.065 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.091,-0.001,0.196 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.868,0.711,1.0,0.231,0.138,0.336 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.461,0.352,0.553 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.464,0.359,0.553 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.481,-0.206 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.232,-0.344,-0.147 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.242,-0.362,-0.153 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.337,-0.135 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.21,-0.324,-0.124 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.192,-0.305,-0.103 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.14,-0.315,0.006 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.076,-0.204,0.04 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.025,-0.092,0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.027,-0.044,0.088 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,-0.021,0.097 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.007,0.184 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.233,0.144,0.329 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.466,0.366,0.559 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.47,0.376,0.559 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.318,-0.467,-0.193 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.334,-0.14 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.235,-0.345,-0.148 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.33,-0.132 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.204,-0.315,-0.12 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.186,-0.294,-0.104 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.137,-0.308,-0.004 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.072,-0.198,0.038 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.027,-0.096,0.042 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.632,0.421,0.842,-0.001,-0.074,0.062 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.789,0.632,0.947,0.068,-0.03,0.176 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.211,0.097,0.325 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.447,0.325,0.551 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.45,0.327,0.555 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.329,-0.448,-0.205 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.23,-0.326,-0.145 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.24,-0.339,-0.158 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.222,-0.309,-0.145 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.208,-0.299,-0.127 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.191,-0.272,-0.118 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.138,-0.304,0.021 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.074,-0.193,0.047 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.024,-0.069,0.038 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.368,0.158,0.579,0.001,-0.066,0.069 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.063,0.085 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.065,-0.037,0.17 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.108,0.317 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.452,0.342,0.553 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.456,0.348,0.554 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.337,-0.463,-0.228 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.242,-0.34,-0.164 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.349,-0.175 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.324,-0.164 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.316,-0.144 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.153,-0.323,-0.012 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.211,0.032 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.108,0.02 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.093,0.059 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.069,-0.004,0.176 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.212,0.11,0.325 -AutoETS,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.448,0.344,0.544 -AutoETS,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.451,0.347,0.542 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.616,-0.278 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.458,-0.215 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.332,-0.488,-0.21 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.466,-0.2 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.427,-0.197 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.279,-0.443,-0.163 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.222,-0.412,-0.068 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.154,-0.241,-0.075 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.1,-0.243,0.001 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.211,0.053,0.368,-0.073,-0.214,0.029 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.074,-0.214,0.004 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,-0.031,0.15 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.201,0.099,0.306 +AutoETS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.444,0.337,0.542 +AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.448,0.35,0.54 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.586,-0.267 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.439,-0.209 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.462,-0.208 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3,-0.438,-0.195 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.287,-0.404,-0.196 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.268,-0.423,-0.162 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.216,-0.41,-0.082 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.147,-0.233,-0.076 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.098,-0.226,-0.007 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.069,-0.205,0.036 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.177,0.03 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.154,0.098,0.207 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.407,0.313,0.494 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.41,0.309,0.502 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.687,-0.963,-0.498 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.769,-0.425 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.574,-0.798,-0.424 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.55,-0.777,-0.402 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.724,-0.404 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.511,-0.762,-0.353 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.132,-0.445,-0.682,-0.275 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.455,-0.283 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.132,0.0,0.289,-0.3,-0.507,-0.16 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.268,-0.481,-0.108 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.269,-0.482,-0.124 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.182,-0.261,-0.109 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.158,0.102,0.209 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.414,0.325,0.495 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.418,0.325,0.505 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.927,-0.503 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.422 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.771,-0.426 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.741,-0.401 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.695,-0.404 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.723,-0.357 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.444,-0.667,-0.295 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.451,-0.287 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.304,-0.49,-0.169 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.269,-0.465,-0.121 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.252,-0.441,-0.11 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.187,-0.263,-0.114 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.299,0.209,0.388 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.303,0.192,0.4 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.407,-2.016,-1.001 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.228,-1.642,-0.904 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.246,-1.684,-0.906 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.212,-1.653,-0.883 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.189,-1.615,-0.868 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.156,-1.584,-0.833 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.682,-0.682 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.946,-1.314,-0.678 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.854,-1.238,-0.543 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.809,-1.226,-0.482 -Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.811,-1.194,-0.525 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.687,-0.977,-0.455 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.427,-0.633,-0.264 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.304,0.226,0.392 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.309,0.214,0.403 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-1.983,-1.026 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.235,-1.643,-0.944 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.253,-1.698,-0.943 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.219,-1.644,-0.913 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.196,-1.597,-0.904 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.579,-0.858 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.074,-1.683,-0.724 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.314,-0.7 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.874,-1.265,-0.578 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.824,-1.239,-0.519 +Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.799,-1.184,-0.509 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.706,-0.979,-0.481 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.437,-0.644,-0.292 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.005,-0.034,0.028 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.42,-1.996,-1.016 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.24,-1.64,-0.923 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.258,-1.696,-0.93 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.224,-1.66,-0.902 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.2,-1.602,-0.889 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.168,-1.576,-0.855 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.073,-1.653,-0.677 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.342,-0.677 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.864,-1.237,-0.561 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.819,-1.247,-0.487 -Drift,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.821,-1.184,-0.531 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.696,-1.008,-0.446 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.434,-0.667,-0.238 -Drift,Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.005,-0.029,0.032 +Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.007,-0.028,0.029 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.422,-1.991,-1.048 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.252,-1.652,-0.959 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.689,-0.969 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.235,-1.657,-0.934 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.212,-1.613,-0.926 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.179,-1.566,-0.889 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.09,-1.705,-0.731 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.971,-1.341,-0.7 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.888,-1.266,-0.602 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.837,-1.24,-0.533 +Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.812,-1.174,-0.538 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.719,-1.02,-0.482 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.448,-0.674,-0.272 +Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.007,-0.03,0.027 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 37cad83ced1513471e48d1938c5190f82f42bf7e..fb1f27b5c0b885bea76843f8c54d726a8755d391 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.067,0.005,0.132 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.07,0.004,0.141 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.079,0.014,0.148 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.109,0.047,0.173 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.108,0.036,0.177 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.138,0.057,0.235 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.124,0.046,0.212 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.131,0.249 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.201,0.13,0.262 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.211,0.143,0.273 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.165,0.328 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.321,0.51 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.273,0.442 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.338,0.509 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.071,-0.153,-0.005 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.063,0.007,0.129 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.067,0.006,0.137 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.076,0.014,0.145 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.046,0.168 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.036,0.178 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.132,0.057,0.22 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.044,0.198 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.128,0.244 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.143,0.273 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.196,0.13,0.264 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.164,0.318 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.323,0.51 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.269,0.434 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.345,0.517 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.067,-0.148,-0.007 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.004,-0.016,0.022 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.816,0.013,-0.006,0.032 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,0.974,0.045,0.014,0.088 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.684,0.474,0.868,0.044,0.01,0.077 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.077,0.013,0.174 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.062,-0.059,0.177 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.133,0.089,0.182 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.144,0.092,0.197 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.11,0.206 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.191,0.119,0.278 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.291,0.455 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.231,0.402 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.313,0.455 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.076,-0.165,-0.004 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.004,-0.023,0.015 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.014,0.022 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.044,0.014,0.084 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.044,0.01,0.076 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.161 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.06,-0.063,0.159 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.084,0.171 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.107,0.202 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.142,0.094,0.191 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.186,0.118,0.269 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.298,0.459 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.233,0.39 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.318,0.46 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.072,-0.159,-0.006 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.023,0.014 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.009,-0.01,0.028 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.041,0.005,0.094 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.04,0.016,0.064 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.073,-0.001,0.18 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.058,-0.073,0.184 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.13,0.085,0.179 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.14,0.093,0.19 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.152,0.107,0.2 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.115,0.283 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.29,0.457 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.22,0.403 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.307,0.453 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.085,-0.174,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.368,0.184,0.579,-0.013,-0.033,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.009,-0.029,0.01 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.009,-0.01,0.028 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.04,0.005,0.087 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.04,0.016,0.061 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.07,-0.003,0.166 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.056,-0.077,0.163 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.083,0.169 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.106,0.2 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.138,0.094,0.184 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.183,0.115,0.269 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.294,0.463 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.223,0.394 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.316,0.461 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.082,-0.17,-0.014 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.009,-0.029,0.009 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.342,0.658,0.033,0.001,0.072 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.711,0.032,0.001,0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.065,-0.006,0.163 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.05,-0.075,0.166 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.122,0.081,0.165 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.132,0.086,0.177 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.144,0.099,0.195 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.181,0.109,0.266 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.286,0.445 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.223,0.391 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.306,0.443 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.122,-0.21,-0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.026,0.316,-0.047,-0.097,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.043,-0.104,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.342,0.658,-0.034,-0.078,-0.001 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.031,0.001,0.07 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,0.002,0.058 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.061,-0.007,0.152 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.047,-0.079,0.15 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.117,0.078,0.155 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.141,0.095,0.192 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.086,0.174 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.108,0.255 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.29,0.45 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.225,0.379 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.313,0.45 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.202,-0.048 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.046,-0.091,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.042,-0.096,-0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.032,-0.075,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,-0.001,-0.064,0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.033,-0.019,0.1 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.017,-0.105,0.11 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.092,0.046,0.142 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.103,0.04,0.162 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.115,0.055,0.171 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.099,0.216 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.272,0.416 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.212,0.346 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.356,0.29,0.418 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.121,-0.215,-0.037 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.316,0.132,0.526,-0.046,-0.084,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.042,-0.068,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.474,0.289,0.684,-0.033,-0.065,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.421,0.237,0.632,0.001,-0.046,0.06 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.0,-0.059,0.043 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.031,-0.019,0.097 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.016,-0.095,0.097 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.088,0.045,0.134 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.054,0.17 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,0.041,0.159 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.096,0.209 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.277,0.422 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.212,0.338 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.294,0.429 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.217,-0.037 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.046,-0.082,-0.01 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.042,-0.065,-0.017 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.062,-0.002 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.0,-0.045,0.056 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.034,-0.053,0.153 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.579,0.367,0.789,0.019,-0.118,0.157 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.093,0.04,0.146 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.104,0.052,0.155 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.116,0.072,0.161 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.154,0.072,0.252 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.346,0.262,0.435 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.187,0.379 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.356,0.283,0.43 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.16,-0.307,-0.061 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.083,-0.21,-0.013 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.079,-0.22,0.001 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.069,-0.195,0.006 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.034,-0.111,0.019 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.035,-0.18,0.051 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.031,-0.054,0.141 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.016,-0.127,0.134 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.088,0.039,0.137 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.114,0.07,0.156 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,0.052,0.148 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.074,0.246 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.348,0.267,0.434 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.19,0.369 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.29,0.434 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.153,-0.283,-0.06 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.08,-0.192,-0.012 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.075,-0.2,0.003 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.065,-0.179,0.007 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.032,-0.107,0.019 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.032,-0.165,0.051 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.016,-0.129,0.054 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.061,-0.048,0.14 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.072,-0.059,0.161 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.085,-0.045,0.174 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.124,0.079,0.172 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.323,0.248,0.392 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.248,0.199,0.293 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.334,0.259,0.406 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.142,-0.268,-0.048 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.066,-0.215,0.056 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.062,-0.226,0.068 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.052,-0.199,0.07 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.018,-0.124,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.211,0.633,-0.019,-0.186,0.106 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.016,-0.057,0.115 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.015,-0.117,0.048 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.059,-0.045,0.137 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.085,-0.04,0.18 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.074,-0.047,0.162 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.122,0.079,0.166 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.258,0.4 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.248,0.204,0.292 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.339,0.265,0.414 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.246,-0.046 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.064,-0.189,0.059 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.195,0.071 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.177,0.073 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.017,-0.107,0.087 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.017,-0.155,0.113 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.015,-0.051,0.104 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.658,0.447,0.843,0.076,-0.049,0.181 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.087,-0.056,0.201 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.099,-0.039,0.205 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.138,0.05,0.23 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.333,0.219,0.445 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.763,1.0,0.26,0.173,0.343 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.344,0.231,0.452 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.332,-0.15 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.154,-0.222,-0.098 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.149,-0.217,-0.093 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.139,-0.197,-0.089 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.101,-0.166,-0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.103,-0.171,-0.041 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.065,-0.163,0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.342,0.157,0.553,-0.082,-0.221,0.046 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.073,-0.034,0.175 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.099,-0.022,0.213 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.087,-0.038,0.2 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.135,0.057,0.227 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.337,0.236,0.452 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.259,0.182,0.338 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.349,0.251,0.462 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.323,-0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.206,-0.092 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.203,-0.091 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.132,-0.183,-0.084 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.097,-0.155,-0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.097,-0.159,-0.041 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.063,-0.159,0.043 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.079,-0.212,0.033 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.012,-0.024,0.038 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.314,0.737,0.025,-0.017,0.065 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.842,0.632,1.0,0.067,0.007,0.152 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.278,0.183,0.37 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.921,0.789,1.0,0.199,0.118,0.297 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.201,0.371 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.251,-0.355,-0.149 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.168,-0.246,-0.101 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.163,-0.235,-0.102 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.153,-0.216,-0.094 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.115,-0.194,-0.041 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.116,-0.183,-0.055 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.078,-0.192,0.056 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.095,-0.252,0.053 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.012,-0.039,0.023 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.013,-0.025,0.052 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.056,-0.004,0.152 -AutoETS,Naive,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.27,0.167,0.372 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.189,0.098,0.306 -AutoETS,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.282,0.19,0.371 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.268,-0.376,-0.167 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.183,-0.26,-0.124 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.179,-0.25,-0.12 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.168,-0.243,-0.11 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.13,-0.206,-0.059 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.131,-0.192,-0.078 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.093,-0.21,0.043 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.11,-0.257,0.038 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.474,0.263,0.686,-0.026,-0.069,0.017 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.014,-0.054,0.024 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.028,-0.014,0.066 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.015,-0.018,0.043 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.066,0.009,0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.285,0.196,0.376 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.2,0.121,0.291 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.212,0.383 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.26,-0.375,-0.167 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.254,-0.12 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.25,-0.118 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.165,-0.237,-0.105 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.205,-0.057 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.128,-0.185,-0.075 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.093,-0.22,0.039 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.11,-0.27,0.021 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.028,-0.071,0.013 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.043,-0.037,0.148 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.26,0.157,0.366 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.178,0.082,0.292 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.272,0.175,0.365 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.489,-0.198 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.236,-0.384,-0.135 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.231,-0.394,-0.13 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.221,-0.362,-0.123 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.275,-0.11 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.182,-0.337,-0.077 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.142,-0.207,-0.086 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.16,-0.298,-0.052 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.368,-0.072,-0.179,-0.007 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.059,-0.179,0.004 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.045,-0.174,0.036 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.013,-0.053,0.024 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.04,-0.042,0.142 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.264,0.165,0.37 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.178,0.083,0.287 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.278,0.186,0.37 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.244,-0.358,-0.15 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.165,-0.235,-0.104 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.161,-0.225,-0.103 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.15,-0.211,-0.094 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.114,-0.189,-0.043 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.114,-0.174,-0.055 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.193,0.045 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.096,-0.251,0.037 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.015,-0.045,0.018 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.025,0.05 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.008,0.143 +AutoETS,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.274,0.174,0.368 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.099,0.292 +AutoETS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.287,0.195,0.372 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.466,-0.197 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.229,-0.369,-0.134 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.224,-0.367,-0.13 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.343,-0.121 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.264,-0.106 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.175,-0.326,-0.08 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.199,-0.086 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.156,-0.293,-0.061 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.071,-0.173,-0.009 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.041,-0.165,0.04 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.167,0.008 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.227,0.146,0.302 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.141,0.09,0.189 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.239,0.159,0.32 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.713,-1.041,-0.473 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.836,-0.41 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.84,-0.408 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.578,-0.802,-0.4 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.526,-0.712,-0.373 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.528,-0.769,-0.355 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.476,-0.645,-0.33 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.5,-0.801,-0.281 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.386,-0.586,-0.224 -Naive,AutoETS,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.369,-0.593,-0.2 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.351,-0.578,-0.187 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.293,-0.432,-0.171 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.157,0.314 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.144,0.096,0.191 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.171,0.331 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.712,-1.04,-0.477 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.604,-0.849,-0.424 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.862,-0.417 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.819,-0.408 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.533,-0.729,-0.384 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.533,-0.766,-0.365 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.486,-0.666,-0.348 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.508,-0.823,-0.31 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.398,-0.602,-0.244 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.359,-0.588,-0.197 +Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.377,-0.582,-0.21 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.305,-0.458,-0.186 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.11,-0.231,-0.02 -Naive,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.017,-0.017,0.044 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.792,-0.376 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.671,-0.3 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.434,-0.676,-0.282 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.643,-0.287 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.528,-0.27 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.611,-0.23 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.33,-0.414,-0.249 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.237,-0.351,-0.523,-0.209 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.079,0.0,0.211,-0.248,-0.423,-0.133 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.233,-0.442,-0.109 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.217,-0.413,-0.089 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.165,-0.233,-0.099 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.099,0.02,0.187 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.118,-0.238,-0.028 +Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.018,-0.013,0.042 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.768,-0.369 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.641,-0.304 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.649,-0.287 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.61,-0.29 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.51,-0.269 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.584,-0.234 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.329,-0.412,-0.256 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.35,-0.512,-0.223 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.251,-0.411,-0.138 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.216,-0.403,-0.091 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.412,-0.11 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.168,-0.236,-0.106 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.105,0.027,0.192 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.114,0.016,0.209 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-1.036,-0.512 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.835,-0.455 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.619,-0.828,-0.442 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-0.797,-0.441 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.552,-0.718,-0.409 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.554,-0.753,-0.395 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.501,-0.683,-0.349 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.525,-0.824,-0.3 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.591,-0.251 -Drift,AutoETS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.392,-0.59,-0.235 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.373,-0.575,-0.212 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.315,-0.47,-0.188 -Drift,Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.017,-0.046,0.017 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.129,-0.265,-0.016 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.122,0.03,0.215 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.069,-0.526 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.85,-0.466 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.628,-0.854,-0.461 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.817,-0.455 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.751,-0.416 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.767,-0.408 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.514,-0.706,-0.361 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.537,-0.859,-0.335 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.62,-0.27 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.385,-0.587,-0.229 +Drift,AutoETS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.402,-0.593,-0.242 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.495,-0.206 +Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.019,-0.044,0.013 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.139,-0.274,-0.031 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv index fc567744e558a3110dc9b07039ab9875d74c3877..dcc49842ff98749f33fa351c0decc30cc33329bd 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.074,0.005,0.148 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.073,0.009,0.144 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.084,0.015,0.158 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.109,0.046,0.179 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.11,0.032,0.187 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.133,0.052,0.213 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.202,0.13,0.286 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.2,0.334 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.187,0.333 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.203,0.366 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.259,0.434 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.377,0.537 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.538,0.693 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.621,0.544,0.696 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.08,-0.173,-0.005 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,0.006,0.143 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.069,0.01,0.138 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.081,0.017,0.152 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.042,0.17 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.107,0.033,0.185 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.05,0.205 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.129,0.273 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.195,0.329 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.179,0.328 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.221,0.369 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.252,0.418 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.371,0.518 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.542,0.686 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.621,0.548,0.689 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.167,-0.006 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.001,-0.021,0.021 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.011,-0.005,0.028 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.038,0.008,0.078 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.039,0.014,0.063 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.064,-0.066,0.182 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.138,0.072,0.231 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.21,0.146,0.272 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.203,0.14,0.268 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.166,0.307 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.211,0.383 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.328,0.493 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.513,0.653 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.52,0.655 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.078,-0.168,-0.009 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.001,-0.021,0.021 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.005,0.029 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,0.007,0.075 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.039,0.014,0.062 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.062,-0.073,0.164 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.071,0.22 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.203,0.144,0.264 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.139,0.261 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.178,0.307 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.209,0.369 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.332,0.479 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.514,0.651 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.522,0.653 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.074,-0.161,-0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.447,0.816,0.013,-0.006,0.031 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,0.974,0.039,0.014,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.041,0.001,0.076 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.066,-0.055,0.171 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.139,0.084,0.222 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.211,0.149,0.27 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.204,0.14,0.271 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.238,0.162,0.307 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.217,0.38 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.335,0.486 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.517,0.654 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.52,0.656 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.092,-0.187,-0.015 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.011,-0.029,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.368,0.184,0.553,-0.013,-0.032,0.006 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.039,0.014,0.065 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.041,0.002,0.076 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.063,-0.06,0.158 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.084,0.213 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.204,0.146,0.262 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.2,0.139,0.261 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.244,0.177,0.311 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.21,0.366 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.34,0.474 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.518,0.65 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.593,0.524,0.653 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.179,-0.017 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.012,-0.03,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.553,0.394,0.711,0.027,0.0,0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.711,0.029,-0.004,0.059 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.054,-0.077,0.168 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.128,0.065,0.219 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.14,0.264 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.13,0.269 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.158,0.3 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.202,0.37 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.325,0.485 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.508,0.649 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.586,0.514,0.651 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.122,-0.219,-0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.04,-0.085,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.026,0.316,-0.041,-0.076,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.447,0.289,0.606,-0.028,-0.064,-0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.701,0.026,-0.0,0.057 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.004,0.056 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.051,-0.082,0.152 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.126,0.064,0.208 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.134,0.255 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.13,0.256 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.168,0.303 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.198,0.357 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.326,0.47 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.509,0.646 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.518,0.647 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.205,-0.044 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.081,-0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.04,-0.07,-0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.299,0.625,-0.027,-0.061,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.001,-0.059,0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.027,-0.097,0.128 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.104,0.052,0.174 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.179,0.119,0.24 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.172,0.106,0.239 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.206,0.128,0.276 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.268,0.196,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.32,0.454 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.5,0.636 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.505,0.64 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.124,-0.23,-0.033 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.041,-0.068,-0.014 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.042,-0.082,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.474,0.289,0.684,-0.029,-0.062,0.004 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.001,-0.048,0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.002,-0.054,0.044 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.026,-0.095,0.112 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.103,0.052,0.168 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.173,0.115,0.231 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.168,0.107,0.232 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.213,0.142,0.283 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.19,0.328 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.321,0.445 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.502,0.634 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.512,0.637 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.12,-0.228,-0.035 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.041,-0.067,-0.014 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.042,-0.083,-0.002 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.029,-0.059,0.004 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.046,0.051 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.579,0.367,0.789,0.026,-0.122,0.16 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.103,0.018,0.216 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.178,0.101,0.249 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.171,0.101,0.243 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.205,0.128,0.286 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.172,0.366 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.293,0.479 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.489,0.643 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.499,0.642 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.154,-0.271,-0.055 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.069,-0.222,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.07,-0.206,0.052 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.057,-0.202,0.071 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.028,-0.146,0.089 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.211,0.633,-0.027,-0.191,0.109 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.024,-0.13,0.138 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.101,0.02,0.206 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.171,0.103,0.244 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.166,0.1,0.238 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.139,0.288 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.169,0.351 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.296,0.466 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.493,0.638 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.499,0.637 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.257,-0.053 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.066,-0.197,0.068 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.068,-0.188,0.057 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.054,-0.18,0.076 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.027,-0.127,0.087 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.16,0.115 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.421,0.895,0.079,-0.007,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.711,0.5,0.895,0.156,0.039,0.259 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.149,0.012,0.263 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.184,0.036,0.298 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.248,0.125,0.358 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.868,1.0,0.369,0.265,0.467 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.454,0.664 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.455,0.669 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.253,-0.4,-0.15 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.16,-0.301,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.162,-0.286,-0.092 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.147,-0.281,-0.069 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.116,-0.21,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.115,-0.276,-0.018 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.579,-0.086,-0.215,0.007 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.079,0.008,0.166 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.151,0.042,0.258 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.146,0.021,0.264 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.192,0.062,0.31 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.242,0.133,0.346 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.367,0.276,0.452 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.46,0.657 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.468,0.662 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.375,-0.148 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.281,-0.077 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.159,-0.27,-0.092 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.144,-0.262,-0.068 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.115,-0.202,-0.054 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.112,-0.26,-0.02 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.086,-0.199,-0.009 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.084,-0.037,0.171 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.076,-0.059,0.179 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.114,-0.027,0.219 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.183,0.104,0.253 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.257,0.371 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.438,0.6 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.437,0.607 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.367,-0.501,-0.249 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.267,-0.373,-0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.268,-0.37,-0.175 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.252,-0.359,-0.163 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.218,-0.315,-0.135 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.217,-0.332,-0.113 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.289,0.105,0.5,-0.185,-0.35,-0.04 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.091,-0.207,0.036 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,-0.041,0.168 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.073,-0.055,0.172 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.123,-0.008,0.224 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.176,0.105,0.25 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.257,0.367 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.445,0.597 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.449,0.602 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.49,-0.242 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.255,-0.359,-0.168 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.257,-0.356,-0.171 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.241,-0.342,-0.154 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.208,-0.3,-0.13 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.206,-0.322,-0.114 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.177,-0.347,-0.044 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.084,-0.201,0.04 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.009,-0.065,0.035 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.033,-0.028,0.076 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.109,0.025,0.204 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.921,0.789,1.0,0.252,0.166,0.346 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.477,0.38,0.565 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.386,0.57 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.499,-0.23 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.255,-0.366,-0.162 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.257,-0.371,-0.163 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.241,-0.367,-0.149 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.207,-0.314,-0.118 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.206,-0.322,-0.112 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.174,-0.357,-0.012 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.082,-0.219,0.056 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.009,-0.036,0.061 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.005,-0.059,0.039 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.009,0.106 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.107,0.03,0.194 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.255,0.176,0.338 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.483,0.391,0.567 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.399,0.572 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.488,-0.218 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.354,-0.162 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.25,-0.353,-0.162 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.345,-0.149 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.202,-0.302,-0.12 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.199,-0.312,-0.111 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.171,-0.359,-0.021 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.078,-0.208,0.052 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.005,-0.04,0.055 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.042,-0.003,0.09 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.117,0.032,0.221 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.259,0.162,0.361 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.481,0.375,0.575 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.486,0.38,0.577 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.578,-0.254 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.444,-0.199 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.312,-0.444,-0.194 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.295,-0.429,-0.187 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.26,-0.382,-0.146 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.258,-0.4,-0.146 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.226,-0.425,-0.038 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.129,-0.281,0.026 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.034,-0.082,0.027 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.044,-0.099,0.003 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.054,0.005,0.11 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.112,0.026,0.209 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.259,0.166,0.35 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.486,0.386,0.577 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.491,0.395,0.58 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.584,-0.283 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.443,-0.216 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.451,-0.215 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.435,-0.202 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.271,-0.395,-0.165 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.268,-0.405,-0.162 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.238,-0.449,-0.066 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.14,-0.289,0.008 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.052,-0.118,0.009 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.057,-0.124,-0.005 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.078,0.003,0.188 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.226,0.132,0.336 -AutoETS,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.459,0.353,0.555 -AutoETS,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.464,0.358,0.555 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.765,-0.349 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.621,-0.268 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.613,-0.276 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.587,-0.253 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.367,-0.519,-0.244 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.365,-0.577,-0.208 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.33,-0.558,-0.142 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.225,-0.339,-0.116 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.122,-0.256,-0.026 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.132,-0.284,-0.033 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.085,-0.231,-0.003 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,-0.025,0.161 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.216,0.121,0.317 +AutoETS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.456,0.355,0.549 +AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.462,0.365,0.555 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.719,-0.337 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.585,-0.264 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.408,-0.577,-0.266 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.555,-0.247 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.488,-0.235 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.542,-0.204 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.318,-0.529,-0.154 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.214,-0.333,-0.118 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.12,-0.241,-0.031 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.126,-0.264,-0.027 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.065,-0.193,0.024 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.161,0.106,0.214 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.413,0.317,0.501 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.418,0.319,0.509 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.828,-1.159,-0.604 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.972,-0.489 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.696,-0.944,-0.503 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-0.941,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.629,-0.831,-0.47 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-0.919,-0.415 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.132,-0.584,-0.876,-0.361 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.459,-0.589,-0.345 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.079,0.0,0.211,-0.337,-0.529,-0.199 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.349,-0.564,-0.193 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.293,-0.506,-0.152 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.192,-0.272,-0.118 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.165,0.111,0.215 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.421,0.332,0.503 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.427,0.334,0.515 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.811,-1.075,-0.59 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.684,-0.918,-0.498 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-0.901,-0.515 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-0.888,-0.484 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.801,-0.472 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.872,-0.42 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.579,-0.824,-0.381 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.454,-0.579,-0.346 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.341,-0.512,-0.213 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.349,-0.539,-0.2 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.275,-0.464,-0.138 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.198,-0.273,-0.125 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.789,0.63,0.947,0.301,0.205,0.392 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.307,0.196,0.403 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.613,-2.255,-1.167 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.421,-1.884,-1.054 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.424,-1.888,-1.073 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.394,-1.849,-1.034 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.328,-1.749,-0.999 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.325,-1.801,-0.956 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.265,-1.98,-0.83 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.086,-1.497,-0.78 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.912,-1.298,-0.614 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.928,-1.352,-0.6 -Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.848,-1.246,-0.546 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.704,-1.003,-0.464 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.211,0.053,0.37,-0.43,-0.645,-0.258 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.306,0.221,0.392 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.314,0.217,0.405 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.18,-1.183 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.427,-1.861,-1.056 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.431,-1.857,-1.076 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.399,-1.824,-1.038 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.337,-1.735,-1.009 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.332,-1.759,-0.974 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.276,-1.915,-0.852 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.097,-1.48,-0.802 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.934,-1.31,-0.642 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.944,-1.364,-0.629 +Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.838,-1.216,-0.551 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.727,-1.011,-0.497 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.441,-0.644,-0.284 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.009,-0.025,0.029 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.636,-2.289,-1.195 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.442,-1.896,-1.082 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.445,-1.904,-1.084 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.415,-1.862,-1.056 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.349,-1.775,-1.019 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.346,-1.791,-0.994 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.285,-2.02,-0.835 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.105,-1.547,-0.776 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.928,-1.323,-0.628 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.945,-1.366,-0.613 -Drift,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.864,-1.249,-0.558 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.719,-1.035,-0.468 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.442,-0.675,-0.244 -Drift,Naive,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.009,-0.03,0.024 +Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.011,-0.019,0.03 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.638,-2.219,-1.211 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.453,-1.88,-1.093 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.457,-1.885,-1.102 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.425,-1.836,-1.076 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.362,-1.756,-1.048 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.357,-1.757,-0.995 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-1.962,-0.88 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.119,-1.512,-0.815 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.955,-1.336,-0.664 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.965,-1.381,-0.653 +Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.858,-1.247,-0.575 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.745,-1.06,-0.502 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.457,-0.679,-0.276 +Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.011,-0.031,0.019 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index bb1e8723d9372f7500c1d3794d69cc6543ae3191..5dcf72c974f33efc315fd97ee3b673ac24f01f21 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.20779220779221,33.03444054098604,0.0,1.2623113666666665,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.16883116883116,31.174565535523513,0.0,11.035949876,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.51948051948051,29.80147588033194,0.0,0.6131149173333332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,77.92207792207793,29.481211670380258,0.0,58.60443543071428,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,67.53246753246754,25.90130949603705,0.0,0.643690455,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.88311688311688,28.694133125144806,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.93506493506494,28.29583000399426,0.0,2.400801213333333,0.5454545454545454,0.0 -Sundial-Base,56.49350649350649,22.606038284311058,0.0,8.236894473214287,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.31168831168831,7.26050610060629,0.0,1797.7783497775001,0.0,9.090909090909092 -AutoARIMA,37.662337662337656,6.527104042847231,0.0,1510.8561669808928,0.0,9.090909090909092 -Seasonal Naive,30.519480519480517,0.0,0.0,0.8312760995238095,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,27.27272727272727,-0.1662594265253503,0.0,5.123867830357143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.636363636363635,-53.201511875184224,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,8.441558441558442,-62.864864819149126,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.493506493506494,-61.16245537117471,0.0,0.9363992514285715,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,93.18181818181819,43.27459392940457,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.5974025974026,32.8898005652727,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.78571428571429,33.495947984841536,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,72.4025974025974,37.03738049424087,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,71.91558441558443,32.91567356681183,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,67.04545454545455,30.36785516060497,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.72077922077922,31.366273254344446,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Sundial-Base,65.58441558441558,33.222788259935065,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,38.63636363636364,9.898493888478555,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 +AutoARIMA,33.11688311688313,5.982141659287521,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 +AutoTheta,29.220779220779225,3.9989847727641026,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,24.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 +Naive,14.935064935064934,-42.822027329975775,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,9.74025974025974,-40.06899253716452,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 +Drift,8.116883116883116,-48.09174159738534,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 1de36ff17e2926651a3224ad86856567fe3f0cb0..21ed1e463412b5a6156ad8dba01cd5cdde265b1e 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.15584415584416,46.68696578595334,0.0,1.2623113666666665,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,84.41558441558442,44.646227553017795,0.0,11.035949876,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,83.76623376623377,43.785118724558025,0.0,0.6131149173333332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,77.92207792207793,42.849014850365286,0.0,58.60443543071428,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,71.42857142857142,41.78820295092495,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.18181818181817,39.70132983650563,0.0,0.643690455,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.23376623376626,41.307705734415066,0.0,2.400801213333333,0.5454545454545454,0.0 -Sundial-Base,50.0,33.17207218207927,0.0,8.236894473214287,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,44.15584415584415,15.906930632020554,0.0,1510.8561669808928,0.0,9.090909090909092 -Stat. Ensemble,35.06493506493506,8.276801868083039,0.0,1797.7783497775001,0.0,9.090909090909092 -Seasonal Naive,25.324675324675326,0.0,0.0,0.8312760995238095,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,16.883116883116884,-41.56970845124237,0.0,5.123867830357143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.285714285714285,-97.30028234658556,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,12.337662337662337,-315.6990750464939,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.844155844155844,-104.46534319649818,0.0,0.9363992514285715,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,94.48051948051949,54.953226018906975,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,83.11688311688312,46.668743688275406,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,77.75974025974025,46.31983640086111,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,74.67532467532466,49.0537508694169,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,73.53896103896103,45.92776459924427,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.34415584415586,43.86628917011185,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.69480519480518,44.43807109311596,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Sundial-Base,58.11688311688312,42.15221432677937,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,40.909090909090914,15.192949434763204,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 +Stat. Ensemble,36.36363636363637,11.071814783556256,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 +Seasonal Naive,23.701298701298704,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,18.831168831168828,-18.399683257143185,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,16.233766233766236,-115.54487614262277,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.337662337662337,-88.45845966507049,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.896103896103896,-93.63270989430306,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index dc2c4c2be3484e14fbce52ab59b8978ea3d973a7..7904adb7d1c630d2a8d43415530a0877b7847612 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.6103896103896,43.957443271384754,0.0,1.2623113666666665,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.27272727272727,41.475691850681386,0.0,11.035949876,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,74.02597402597402,40.01598508389635,0.0,0.6131149173333332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.02597402597402,38.51309339421572,0.0,58.60443543071428,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.12987012987011,39.642361968089844,0.0,0.643690455,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,69.48051948051949,41.20476974196126,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.18181818181817,38.5593646677154,0.0,2.400801213333333,0.5454545454545454,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.40259740259741,29.576275845452827,0.0,8.236894473214287,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,37.662337662337656,14.902329458569142,0.0,1797.7783497775001,0.0,9.090909090909092 -AutoARIMA,30.519480519480517,1.5638202660959388,0.0,1510.8561669808928,0.0,9.090909090909092 -AutoTheta,27.272727272727277,8.879989853009995,0.0,5.123867830357143,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,27.272727272727277,0.0,0.0,0.8312760995238095,0.0,0.0 -Naive,23.376623376623368,-18.78587879193654,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,18.831168831168828,-70.06829999507424,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Drift,14.935064935064934,-24.93538234878965,0.0,0.9363992514285715,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.20779220779221,48.442211622642596,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,74.35064935064936,43.04207391797321,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,74.02597402597402,38.16990011187224,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.53896103896103,38.84505904491324,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.66883116883118,36.99654962186136,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.34415584415584,37.34153521192375,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,68.34415584415584,37.127692710312544,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Sundial-Base,61.68831168831168,37.11101321471857,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,39.285714285714285,13.827496123030514,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 +AutoARIMA,27.92207792207792,3.7229772082420842,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 +AutoTheta,27.597402597402592,8.112534719932462,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,22.727272727272723,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 +Naive,21.1038961038961,-23.683182625995535,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,17.207792207792206,-40.71283512465331,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.987012987012985,-28.29415186104791,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 15250995c97ecf9a0432553f6e3966e0701d5f85..ab09594c5da42cce2fd0615854b89e0a20df830d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.5064935064935,58.67458834348906,0.0,1.2623113666666665,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,85.06493506493506,56.56001454899429,0.0,11.035949876,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,81.81818181818183,55.45987167775909,0.0,0.6131149173333332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,76.6233766233766,53.956535583223996,0.0,58.60443543071428,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,72.72727272727273,55.377808611045374,0.0,187.34055617133333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,69.48051948051949,54.05437172613555,0.0,0.643690455,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.53246753246754,53.038692782251104,0.0,2.400801213333333,0.5454545454545454,0.0 -Sundial-Base,48.05194805194805,43.193179349391094,0.0,8.236894473214287,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,40.259740259740255,17.794252298978662,0.0,1510.8561669808928,0.0,9.090909090909092 -Stat. Ensemble,38.96103896103896,11.866994601483826,0.0,1797.7783497775001,0.0,9.090909090909092 -Seasonal Naive,27.272727272727277,0.0,0.0,0.8312760995238095,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,17.53246753246753,-33.5636659586497,0.0,5.123867830357143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.935064935064934,-76.4296739324673,0.0,1.0228832204761906,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,9.09090909090909,-377.5941280271277,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.142857142857142,-82.91704204922807,0.0,0.9363992514285715,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,94.48051948051949,59.682309139891906,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,82.14285714285714,51.65057902169086,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,77.11038961038962,51.631051239780376,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,76.2987012987013,54.56690402717588,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,70.94155844155841,50.29303698824681,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.99350649350649,50.06921700286738,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.01948051948051,49.586247339686665,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Sundial-Base,57.46753246753248,46.24435266062466,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,38.63636363636363,16.242226994766373,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 +Stat. Ensemble,38.311688311688314,13.067151299916691,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 +Seasonal Naive,23.701298701298704,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,19.155844155844157,-14.943560751678797,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,15.909090909090912,-129.66660309670814,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.311688311688313,-74.36309674872763,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 +Drift,5.51948051948052,-79.2278868482116,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv index 389fe44e3a49e4178c41817470a1f0faeabe9262..1b95f2b400adced536b4d705e6c0e0d82f72b6fa 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.027,-0.004,0.057 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.046,0.012,0.086 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.05,0.015,0.087 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.034,0.179 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.455,0.911,0.061,0.005,0.107 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.035,0.097 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.135,0.081,0.193 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.176,0.376 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.178,0.377 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.22,0.442 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.24,0.417 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.449,0.67 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.452,0.717 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.476,0.686 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.028,-0.061,0.004 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.02,-0.013,0.054 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.024,-0.015,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.071,-0.004,0.169 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.455,0.911,0.035,-0.027,0.086 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.04,0.007,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.111,0.062,0.164 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.152,0.362 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.264,0.157,0.365 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.191,0.424 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.215,0.403 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.431,0.665 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.447,0.701 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.573,0.458,0.68 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.048,-0.094,-0.012 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.02,-0.057,0.013 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.155,0.074,0.232 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.147,0.067,0.222 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.099,0.05,0.148 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.154,0.078,0.231 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.258 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.242 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.223 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.293,0.446 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.316,0.477 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.34,0.473 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.348,0.515 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.603,0.516,0.671 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.509,0.672 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.53,0.683 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.183,-0.301,-0.08 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.005,-0.02,0.027 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.727,0.455,0.911,0.053,-0.027,0.156 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.016,-0.059,0.074 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.021,-0.009,0.047 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.093,0.048,0.148 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.15,0.34 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.249,0.15,0.342 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.298,0.186,0.398 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.217,0.382 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.423,0.66 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.569,0.433,0.7 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.45,0.675 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.053,-0.095,-0.015 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.025,-0.071,0.014 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.005,-0.028,0.02 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.009,-0.042,0.022 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.317,0.727,-0.066,-0.195,0.026 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.0,-0.055,0.035 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.036,-0.009,0.097 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.022,-0.002,0.045 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,-0.005,-0.116,0.079 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.193,0.323 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.286,0.22,0.357 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.243,0.359 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.253,0.409 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.444,0.599 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.434,0.607 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.463,0.615 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.172,-0.285,-0.072 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.009,-0.023,0.041 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.056,-0.184,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.009,-0.035,0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.045,-0.004,0.102 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.705,0.523,0.864,0.031,-0.006,0.066 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.004,-0.108,0.094 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.262,0.183,0.343 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.293,0.213,0.37 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.307,0.236,0.376 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.248,0.422 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.442,0.606 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.435,0.616 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.462,0.621 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.11,-0.174,-0.053 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.683,0.062,-0.027,0.163 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.053,-0.039,0.156 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.061,-0.036,0.17 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.096,0.005,0.19 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.083,0.004,0.169 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.057,-0.042,0.158 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.301,0.219,0.379 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.33,0.242,0.418 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.344,0.271,0.413 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.286,0.455 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.454,0.636 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.463,0.634 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.474,0.648 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.183,-0.301,-0.084 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.0,-0.037,0.052 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.009,-0.045,0.034 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.065,-0.205,0.035 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.048,-0.028,0.157 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.011,-0.045,0.055 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.017,-0.015,0.043 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.089,0.039,0.149 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.157,0.324 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.158,0.332 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.194,0.392 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.213,0.374 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.54,0.421,0.655 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.43,0.698 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.449,0.673 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.217,-0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.077,-0.204,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.273,0.089,0.545,-0.056,-0.185,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.051,-0.186,0.028 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.037,-0.015,0.099 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.023,-0.02,0.084 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.005,-0.119,0.095 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.255,0.173,0.347 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.286,0.206,0.382 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.231,0.382 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.236,0.432 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.438,0.604 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.429,0.618 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.457,0.619 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.347,-0.122 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.038,-0.107,0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.047,-0.114,0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.106,-0.235,-0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.038,-0.11,0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.364,0.909,-0.039,-0.177,0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.033,-0.15,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.455,0.909,0.043,-0.09,0.141 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.201,0.057,0.325 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.207,0.07,0.328 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.259,0.099,0.396 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.26,0.134,0.375 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.411,0.623 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.545,0.366,0.699 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.54,0.436,0.645 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.273,0.089,0.545,-0.065,-0.12,-0.005 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.273,0.089,0.545,-0.036,-0.094,0.027 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.016,-0.08,0.056 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.011,-0.058,0.043 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.091,0.636,0.038,-0.06,0.15 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.006,-0.055,0.071 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.079,-0.004,0.168 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.231,0.122,0.34 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.237,0.138,0.343 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.184,0.391 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.288,0.173,0.387 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.535,0.4,0.659 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.416,0.694 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.431,0.675 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.107,-0.037 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.042,-0.087,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.021,-0.05,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.017,-0.045,0.015 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.032,-0.034,0.131 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.006,-0.077,0.052 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.015,-0.081,0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.545,0.364,0.773,-0.043,-0.163,0.058 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.227,0.141,0.313 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.259,0.171,0.342 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.275,0.196,0.348 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.817,1.0,0.304,0.206,0.4 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.43,0.581 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.503,0.396,0.601 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.448,0.597 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.21,-0.319,-0.113 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.023,-0.047,0.002 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.295,0.136,0.477,-0.032,-0.071,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.09,-0.203,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.023,-0.091,0.02 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.014,-0.033,0.075 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.074,0.027,0.129 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.132,0.325 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.233,0.133,0.328 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.283,0.166,0.393 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.194,0.375 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.412,0.651 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.422,0.692 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.555,0.438,0.666 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.156,-0.239,-0.089 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.124,-0.197,-0.067 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.103,-0.174,-0.051 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.097,-0.174,-0.041 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.273,0.091,0.545,-0.044,-0.165,0.083 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.085,-0.202,0.004 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.079,-0.148,-0.027 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.028,-0.134,0.055 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.238,0.176,0.304 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.27,0.203,0.337 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.227,0.342 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.314,0.236,0.392 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.431,0.592 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.424,0.595 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.451,0.605 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.177,-0.288,-0.097 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,0.005,-0.086,0.104 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.004,-0.104,0.098 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.061,-0.188,0.041 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.005,-0.105,0.107 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.227,0.636,0.041,-0.062,0.14 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.027,-0.058,0.119 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.165,0.067,0.26 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.172,0.07,0.264 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.226,0.098,0.345 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.152,0.31 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.371,0.618 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.393,0.663 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.52,0.401,0.633 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.603,-0.214 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.347,-0.568,-0.179 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.514,-0.176 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.48,-0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.252,-0.481,-0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.301,-0.515,-0.139 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.293,-0.481,-0.152 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.198,-0.351,-0.072 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.259,0.173,0.345 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.29,0.204,0.373 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.232,0.377 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.332,0.242,0.422 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.426,0.619 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.435,0.617 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.444,0.634 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.804,-0.414 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.478,-0.238 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.355,-0.523,-0.224 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.431,-0.609,-0.281 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.343,-0.532,-0.209 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.294,-0.456,-0.165 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.313,-0.436,-0.214 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.349,-0.527,-0.21 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.682,0.409,0.909,0.008,-0.04,0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.591,0.273,0.864,0.073,-0.025,0.17 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.074,0.015,0.136 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.253,0.533 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.248,0.603 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.289,0.555 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.396,-0.606,-0.216 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.358,-0.575,-0.187 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.332,-0.519,-0.176 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.497,-0.188 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.261,-0.487,-0.076 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.311,-0.522,-0.159 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.304,-0.488,-0.153 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.208,-0.358,-0.075 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.318,0.091,0.591,-0.008,-0.054,0.039 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.568,0.909,0.042,0.005,0.08 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.727,0.5,0.909,0.061,0.021,0.101 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.591,0.909,0.099,0.047,0.156 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.369,0.266,0.458 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.247,0.481 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.392,0.29,0.477 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.913,-0.462 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.401,-0.556,-0.282 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.414,-0.588,-0.271 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.493,-0.717,-0.319 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.401,-0.618,-0.26 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.35,-0.519,-0.207 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.37,-0.508,-0.254 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.408,-0.596,-0.256 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.091,0.432,-0.043,-0.088,-0.005 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.591,0.318,0.864,0.065,-0.01,0.147 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.067,0.005,0.135 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.39,0.238,0.531 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.242,0.6 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.273,0.55 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.493,-0.793,-0.282 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.453,-0.736,-0.237 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.425,-0.662,-0.229 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.644,-0.241 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.35,-0.656,-0.109 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.642,-0.226 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.395,-0.648,-0.198 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.292,-0.527,-0.108 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.409,0.136,0.727,-0.078,-0.205,0.024 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.409,0.136,0.682,-0.07,-0.173,0.01 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.002,-0.137,0.118 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.347,0.127,0.521 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.386,0.141,0.583 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.38,0.169,0.543 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.715,-0.316 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.675,-0.274 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.619,-0.277 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.597,-0.27 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.352,-0.6,-0.154 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.405,-0.632,-0.209 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.601,-0.24 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.294,-0.45,-0.179 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.08,-0.158,-0.015 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.072,-0.156,-0.005 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.002,-0.133,0.121 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.021,-0.031,0.069 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.705,0.5,0.864,0.06,0.013,0.109 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.342,0.226,0.439 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.329,0.203,0.458 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.365,0.252,0.46 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.692,-0.897,-0.515 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.56,-0.32 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.444,-0.603,-0.308 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.525,-0.703,-0.371 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.617,-0.3 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.379,-0.534,-0.243 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.519,-0.293 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.605,-0.302 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.065,-0.112,-0.022 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.021,-0.075,0.03 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.346,0.193,0.491 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.197,0.57 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.378,0.238,0.512 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.288,-2.032,-0.813 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.987,-0.756 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.182,-1.94,-0.732 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.172,-1.898,-0.726 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.068,-1.654,-0.698 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.149,-1.929,-0.667 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.137,-1.865,-0.699 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.98,-1.618,-0.59 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-1.141,-0.339 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.639,-1.133,-0.312 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.532,-1.086,-0.145 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.529,-0.966,-0.239 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.04,-0.036,0.112 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.328,0.221,0.419 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.315,0.196,0.441 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.352,0.248,0.441 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.763,-1.06,-0.534 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.49,-0.691,-0.338 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.73,-0.33 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.835,-0.401 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.491,-0.761,-0.31 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.183,-0.436,-0.667,-0.26 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.457,-0.645,-0.309 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.498,-0.73,-0.32 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.091,0.409,-0.11,-0.184,-0.05 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.295,0.136,0.5,-0.064,-0.122,-0.013 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.042,-0.126,0.035 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.3,0.152,0.419 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.286,0.145,0.428 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.325,0.178,0.442 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.518,-2.04,-1.064 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.128,-1.496,-0.798 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.148,-1.535,-0.793 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.268,-1.745,-0.83 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.129,-1.528,-0.778 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.051,-1.384,-0.754 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.081,-1.448,-0.758 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.139,-1.625,-0.741 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.585,-0.844,-0.362 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.519,-0.781,-0.293 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.488,-0.722,-0.283 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.428,-0.722,-0.18 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.059,-0.435,0.413 -Naive,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.049,0.022,0.081 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.432,-2.535,-0.825 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.366,-2.339,-0.809 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.32,-2.333,-0.764 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.31,-2.308,-0.756 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.198,-2.324,-0.577 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.284,-2.272,-0.713 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.271,-2.244,-0.731 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.104,-1.971,-0.646 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.756,-1.518,-0.33 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.742,-1.502,-0.319 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.629,-1.398,-0.164 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-1.328,-0.245 -AutoETS,Naive,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.063,-0.703,0.303 +Naive,AutoETS,0.545,0.364,0.727,-0.02,-0.276,0.204 +Naive,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.036,0.019,0.055 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.469,-2.047,-1.037 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.548,-0.767 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.106,-1.604,-0.771 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.225,-1.732,-0.861 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.088,-1.617,-0.75 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.012,-1.506,-0.657 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.467,-0.735 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.098,-1.611,-0.77 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.926,-0.328 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.49,-0.845,-0.255 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.459,-0.79,-0.244 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.401,-0.748,-0.169 +AutoETS,Naive,0.455,0.273,0.636,0.019,-0.257,0.216 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.011,-0.611,0.327 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.407,-2.187,-0.907 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.342,-2.128,-0.846 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.296,-2.077,-0.819 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.285,-2.056,-0.815 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.175,-1.818,-0.773 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.26,-2.08,-0.756 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.248,-1.996,-0.78 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.082,-1.722,-0.67 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.738,-1.247,-0.407 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.724,-1.224,-0.375 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.612,-1.188,-0.204 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.609,-1.05,-0.312 -Drift,Naive,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.052,-0.089,-0.023 -Drift,AutoETS,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.01,-0.485,0.379 +AutoETS,Drift,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.054,-0.22,0.246 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.611,-2.152,-1.128 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.207,-1.595,-0.861 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.637,-0.858 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.352,-1.839,-0.901 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.208,-1.624,-0.841 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.127,-1.479,-0.81 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.158,-1.532,-0.822 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.218,-1.736,-0.799 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.644,-0.912,-0.408 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.575,-0.851,-0.337 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.543,-0.788,-0.33 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.481,-0.792,-0.216 +Drift,Naive,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.037,-0.058,-0.02 +Drift,AutoETS,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.057,-0.326,0.181 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv index 68918d2ddf2719e4417270c481f558c9bbbd96a2..9e7619a74e79be44efcf2559bee57b79c0a236a8 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.037,0.007,0.066 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.052,0.016,0.09 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.067,0.031,0.104 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.084,0.035,0.129 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.116,0.062,0.185 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.061,0.123 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.136,0.27 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.278,0.45 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.344,0.489 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.386,0.546 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.623,0.521,0.707 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.639,0.8 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.856,0.65,0.949 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.648,0.809 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.038,-0.07,-0.007 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.015,-0.016,0.049 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.031,-0.002,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.455,0.911,0.049,-0.005,0.096 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.082,0.019,0.162 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.057,0.026,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.172,0.115,0.235 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.246,0.433 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.314,0.472 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.358,0.528 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.493,0.7 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.719,0.624,0.797 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.851,0.639,0.948 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.729,0.634,0.805 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.054,-0.099,-0.016 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.016,-0.052,0.015 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.155,0.076,0.23 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.161,0.079,0.235 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.681,0.955,0.116,0.064,0.166 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.167,0.09,0.247 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.125,0.266 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.118,0.257 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.221,0.162,0.292 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.401,0.535 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.431,0.55 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.483,0.612 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.56,0.676 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.638,0.877 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.761,0.708,0.807 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.713,0.813 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.184,-0.299,-0.082 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.016,0.001,0.032 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.034,-0.037,0.089 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.727,0.455,0.911,0.068,-0.007,0.157 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.042,0.01,0.071 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.114,0.218 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.245,0.417 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.315,0.453 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.353,0.51 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.603,0.494,0.691 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.715,0.615,0.794 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.849,0.634,0.948 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.625,0.803 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.072,-0.116,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.032,-0.071,0.002 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.017,-0.034,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.018,-0.045,0.069 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.052,-0.021,0.149 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.026,-0.007,0.052 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.095,0.205 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.241,0.399 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.309,0.439 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.348,0.5 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.596,0.489,0.685 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.71,0.609,0.79 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.847,0.633,0.947 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.72,0.62,0.798 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.092,-0.148,-0.037 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.273,0.089,0.545,-0.052,-0.106,0.005 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.036,-0.098,0.035 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.019,-0.074,0.043 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.006,-0.026,0.038 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.047,-0.184,0.054 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.014,-0.036,0.044 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.05,0.008,0.102 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.04,0.019,0.062 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.078,-0.015,0.15 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.298,0.444 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.331,0.468 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.393,0.537 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.47,0.622 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.579,0.857 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.643,0.777 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.651,0.782 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.192,-0.308,-0.086 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.007,-0.039,0.025 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.054,-0.192,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.007,-0.035,0.039 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.044,-0.001,0.096 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.568,0.909,0.034,-0.006,0.07 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.072,-0.029,0.158 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.284,0.448 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.316,0.471 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.463,0.379,0.539 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.457,0.627 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.737,0.575,0.858 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.715,0.64,0.775 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.649,0.783 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.319,-0.131,-0.2,-0.069 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.045,-0.058,0.156 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.051,-0.052,0.161 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.035,-0.057,0.139 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.008,-0.056,0.074 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.129,0.042,0.228 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.308,0.21,0.408 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.272,0.45 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.333,0.496 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.461,0.687 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.605,0.784 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.625,0.947 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.715,0.616,0.794 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.131,-0.227,-0.066 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.089,-0.193,-0.02 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.273,0.089,0.545,-0.073,-0.186,0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.055,-0.175,0.02 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.036,-0.162,0.054 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.058,-0.055,0.174 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.092,-0.008,0.19 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.083,-0.009,0.179 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.119,0.017,0.225 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.399,0.318,0.479 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.358,0.495 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.421,0.56 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.492,0.643 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.591,0.864 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.668,0.784 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.737,0.675,0.791 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.2,-0.328,-0.099 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.014,-0.046,0.035 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.007,-0.041,0.033 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.061,-0.211,0.053 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.037,-0.012,0.093 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.027,-0.014,0.083 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.065,-0.035,0.153 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.279,0.448 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.313,0.472 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.371,0.544 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.455,0.623 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.736,0.568,0.859 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.636,0.773 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.644,0.779 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.246,-0.363,-0.143 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.053,-0.114,-0.008 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.046,-0.106,0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.102,-0.235,0.008 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.038,-0.103,0.012 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,-0.027,-0.132,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.098,-0.029,0.205 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.283,0.169,0.385 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.343,0.228,0.437 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.397,0.276,0.497 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.459,0.671 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.694,0.602,0.767 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.84,0.606,0.946 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.611,0.777 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.14,-0.065 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.06,-0.101,-0.026 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.044,-0.076,-0.01 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.027,-0.055,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.008,-0.08,0.053 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.273,0.636,0.027,-0.038,0.116 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,-0.01,-0.07,0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.03,-0.083,0.123 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.338,0.256,0.419 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.369,0.287,0.445 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.439,0.356,0.522 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.526,0.446,0.602 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.726,0.541,0.853 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.702,0.636,0.761 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.71,0.644,0.769 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.346,-0.133 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.042,-0.066,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.091,0.432,-0.035,-0.076,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.091,-0.218,0.009 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.028,-0.09,0.014 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,0.01,-0.033,0.065 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.066,0.186 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.302,0.214,0.387 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.29,0.425 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.325,0.494 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.585,0.477,0.675 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.607,0.783 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.618,0.947 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.616,0.791 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.254,-0.371,-0.158 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.207,-0.308,-0.129 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.189,-0.278,-0.128 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.169,-0.257,-0.105 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.148,-0.295,-0.044 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.108,-0.258,0.028 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.139,-0.229,-0.071 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.04,-0.054,0.117 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.271,0.422 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.307,0.444 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.371,0.518 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.449,0.604 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.556,0.852 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.63,0.767 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.64,0.774 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.284,-0.412,-0.193 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.085,-0.177,0.014 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.078,-0.187,0.028 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.135,-0.29,-0.017 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.07,-0.181,0.034 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.031,-0.141,0.076 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.041,-0.133,0.051 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.205,0.109,0.305 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.193,0.35 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.235,0.421 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.389,0.639 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.661,0.548,0.755 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.827,0.575,0.942 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.673,0.558,0.767 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.577,-0.817,-0.384 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.764,-0.327 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.716,-0.324 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.663,-0.317 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.445,-0.69,-0.266 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.395,-0.625,-0.203 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.433,-0.632,-0.272 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.258,-0.438,-0.122 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.318,0.235,0.4 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.349,0.276,0.422 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.422,0.34,0.501 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.435,0.59 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.722,0.535,0.847 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.693,0.608,0.759 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.701,0.618,0.766 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.883,-1.149,-0.669 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.8,-0.425 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.58,-0.811,-0.396 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.665,-0.918,-0.467 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.811,-0.387 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.511,-0.72,-0.345 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.526,-0.73,-0.371 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.466,-0.666,-0.308 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.083,0.032,0.139 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.159,0.103,0.219 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.265,0.515 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.446,0.676 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.79,0.442,0.932 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.461,0.689 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.72,-0.955,-0.524 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.894,-0.457 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.632,-0.828,-0.46 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-0.784,-0.447 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.576,-0.819,-0.375 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.521,-0.775,-0.295 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.563,-0.741,-0.409 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.538,-0.24 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.091,-0.161,-0.033 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.659,0.455,0.819,0.046,0.011,0.086 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.977,0.932,1.0,0.152,0.113,0.193 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.284,0.193,0.375 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.955,0.818,1.0,0.6,0.32,0.795 +AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.459,0.621 +AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.472,0.633 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.974,-1.221,-0.757 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.667,-0.879,-0.494 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.89,-0.461 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-0.982,-0.557 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-0.894,-0.456 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.584,-0.802,-0.402 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.798,-0.442 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.537,-0.731,-0.381 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.341,0.181,0.545,-0.049,-0.094,-0.012 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.682,0.409,0.909,0.083,-0.01,0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.212,0.469 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.535,0.393,0.653 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.395,0.929 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.412,0.666 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.876,-1.2,-0.628 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.807,-1.117,-0.558 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.043,-0.546 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.75,-1.001,-0.533 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.718,-0.985,-0.5 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.658,-0.989,-0.381 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.704,-0.978,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.728,-0.307 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.189,-0.281,-0.115 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.318,0.091,0.591,-0.09,-0.207,0.01 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.568,0.909,0.111,0.052,0.166 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.249,0.164,0.334 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.955,0.818,1.0,0.586,0.296,0.789 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.432,0.605 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.446,0.616 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.574,-0.932 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.161,-0.647 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.863,-1.171,-0.61 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.963,-1.27,-0.726 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.193,-0.59 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.781,-1.092,-0.552 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.8,-1.075,-0.59 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.729,-1.003,-0.515 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.023,0.0,0.068,-0.179,-0.239,-0.127 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.091,0.432,-0.125,-0.199,-0.055 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.294,0.076,0.448 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.493,0.303,0.629 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.759,0.353,0.925 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.511,0.321,0.645 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.655,-2.417,-1.087 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.558,-2.336,-0.971 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.518,-2.239,-0.977 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.477,-2.174,-0.956 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.432,-2.196,-0.856 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.348,-2.036,-0.847 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.412,-2.08,-0.911 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.118,-1.768,-0.637 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.683,-1.06,-0.36 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.884,-0.27 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.416,-0.811,-0.082 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.155,0.024,0.273 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.536,0.196,0.768 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.469,0.348,0.562 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.484,0.361,0.575 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.628,-2.087,-1.274 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.647,-0.887 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.206,-1.679,-0.841 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.324,-1.798,-0.967 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.19,-1.652,-0.835 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.109,-1.514,-0.805 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.131,-1.525,-0.815 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.047,-1.438,-0.769 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.396,-0.6,-0.239 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.331,-0.502,-0.196 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.184,-0.375,-0.025 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.282,0.086,0.439 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.675,0.126,0.903 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.308,0.111,0.466 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.701,-3.988,-1.772 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.564,-3.929,-1.661 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.51,-3.858,-1.599 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.452,-3.756,-1.559 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.389,-3.625,-1.535 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.272,-3.287,-1.512 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.362,-3.605,-1.546 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.952,-3.08,-1.211 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.346,-2.088,-0.806 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.151,-1.881,-0.647 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.973,-1.697,-0.436 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.394,-0.781,-0.095 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.594,-0.202,0.887 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.035,0.02,0.053 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.926,-18.783,-1.854 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.724,-18.416,-1.769 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.629,-18.126,-1.731 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.547,-17.81,-1.727 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.565,-18.036,-1.663 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.234,-17.65,-1.54 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.434,-17.783,-1.619 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.781,-16.216,-1.352 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.771,-13.632,-0.793 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.502,-13.091,-0.652 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.182,0.0,0.455,-3.157,-12.292,-0.546 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.455,0.182,0.727,-2.075,-9.328,-0.144 -AutoETS,Naive,0.455,0.182,0.727,-1.465,-7.811,0.168 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.463,0.076,0.728 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.372,0.238,0.472 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.389,0.258,0.487 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.51,-7.126,-1.763 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.827,-5.973,-1.374 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.799,-6.046,-1.351 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.057,-6.34,-1.448 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.782,-6.109,-1.315 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.652,-5.817,-1.18 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.698,-5.771,-1.254 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.592,-5.554,-1.151 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.045,0.0,0.182,-1.497,-3.867,-0.47 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.182,-1.416,-3.74,-0.42 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.091,0.455,-1.155,-3.309,-0.244 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.863,-2.675,-0.082 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.636,0.364,0.909,-1.41,-7.674,0.192 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.835,-4.244,-1.841 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.694,-4.135,-1.731 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.637,-4.067,-1.67 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.578,-3.958,-1.632 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.512,-3.843,-1.601 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.391,-3.49,-1.571 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.484,-3.789,-1.601 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.06,-3.286,-1.262 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.431,-2.217,-0.855 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.229,-1.997,-0.7 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.182,0.0,0.455,-1.045,-1.819,-0.473 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.444,-0.872,-0.125 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.036,-0.056,-0.02 -Drift,AutoETS,0.364,0.091,0.636,0.585,-0.237,0.885 +AutoETS,Naive,0.636,0.453,0.818,-0.237,-1.691,0.327 +AutoETS,Drift,0.818,0.636,0.955,-0.212,-1.644,0.34 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.184,-4.178,-2.423 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.534,-3.481,-1.8 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.511,-3.442,-1.777 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.699,-3.63,-2.013 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.485,-3.404,-1.748 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.357,-3.188,-1.75 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.392,-3.295,-1.702 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.258,-3.142,-1.552 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.222,-1.635,-0.847 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.119,-1.531,-0.761 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.885,-1.283,-0.533 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.592,-0.894,-0.312 +Naive,AutoETS,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.192,-0.485,0.628 +Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.016,0.038 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.298,-4.338,-2.49 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.631,-3.597,-1.865 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.607,-3.598,-1.847 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.801,-3.79,-2.081 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.581,-3.531,-1.812 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.449,-3.324,-1.805 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.485,-3.427,-1.775 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.347,-3.282,-1.615 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.283,-1.725,-0.895 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.177,-1.607,-0.806 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.936,-1.355,-0.565 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.635,-0.95,-0.348 +Drift,AutoETS,0.182,0.045,0.364,0.175,-0.515,0.622 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.027,-0.039,-0.017 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index fa4e087b59e6d9d01d1d19a03258350cfdf54536..7af69288d170dfcd64c28fbb5efcd25ca646cbd8 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.042,0.0,0.084 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.116 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.089,0.032,0.166 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.071,0.035,0.111 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.047,-0.034,0.096 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.088,0.045,0.129 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.204,0.129,0.282 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.341,0.186,0.484 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.248,0.594 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.44,0.256,0.605 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.249,0.518 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.528,0.363,0.664 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.67,0.472,0.788 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.551,0.388,0.679 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.044,-0.092,-0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.024,-0.022,0.078 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.048,-0.01,0.114 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.03,-0.01,0.076 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.005,-0.066,0.061 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.047,0.001,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.169,0.101,0.246 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.163,0.456 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.405,0.221,0.566 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.238,0.584 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.222,0.488 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.507,0.341,0.649 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.656,0.466,0.774 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.532,0.368,0.668 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.07,-0.131,-0.024 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.025,-0.085,0.022 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.095,0.037,0.145 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.238 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.157,0.08,0.228 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.182,0.113,0.247 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.18,0.099,0.262 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.177,0.11,0.243 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.18,0.113,0.248 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.31,0.486 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.363,0.551 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.358,0.517 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.484,0.381,0.579 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.583,0.476,0.661 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.634,0.529,0.73 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.598,0.496,0.675 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.105,-0.17,-0.039 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.079,-0.011,0.168 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.069,-0.014,0.155 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.096,0.019,0.171 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.094,-0.006,0.199 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.091,0.013,0.172 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.094,-0.014,0.184 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.246,0.428 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.408,0.307,0.497 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.291,0.46 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.327,0.53 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.437,0.619 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.487,0.692 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.455,0.635 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.199,-0.312,-0.097 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.086,-0.202,0.011 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.024,-0.013,0.069 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.006,-0.038,0.047 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.455,0.911,-0.02,-0.146,0.06 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.024,-0.004,0.053 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.148,0.066,0.235 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.295,0.143,0.433 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.391,0.202,0.553 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.4,0.209,0.57 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.209,0.471 -TiRex,Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.495,0.317,0.639 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.647,0.431,0.772 -TiRex,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.52,0.345,0.66 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.097,-0.199,-0.034 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.051,-0.129,0.01 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.025,-0.074,0.013 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.011,-0.05,0.023 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.019,-0.004,0.039 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.017,-0.042,0.058 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.013,-0.016,0.042 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.017,-0.108,0.123 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.282,0.193,0.37 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.358,0.255,0.456 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.245,0.406 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.382,0.279,0.484 +TiRex,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.5,0.401,0.587 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.561,0.429,0.669 +TiRex,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.518,0.418,0.604 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.186,-0.295,-0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.074,-0.183,0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.011,-0.023,0.047 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.029,-0.011,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.659,0.027,-0.021,0.073 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.341,0.705,0.024,-0.007,0.059 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.028,-0.096,0.132 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.29,0.194,0.39 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.365,0.258,0.465 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.246,0.421 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.28,0.499 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.506,0.404,0.594 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.565,0.443,0.674 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.523,0.423,0.609 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.222,-0.328,-0.127 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.106,-0.206,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.019,-0.041,0.004 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.03,-0.074,0.011 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.66,-0.002,-0.067,0.049 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.006,-0.036,0.022 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.002,-0.122,0.099 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.269,0.182,0.355 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.346,0.24,0.446 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.236,0.392 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.37,0.264,0.475 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.491,0.391,0.578 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.552,0.426,0.662 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.509,0.409,0.595 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.219,-0.354,-0.11 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.104,-0.249,0.006 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.017,-0.062,0.04 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.523,0.341,0.705,-0.028,-0.079,0.021 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.34,0.705,0.002,-0.051,0.063 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.364,0.909,-0.019,-0.081,0.025 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.046,-0.178,0.047 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.364,0.909,-0.001,-0.065,0.042 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.127,0.031,0.224 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.277,0.148,0.399 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.375,0.203,0.531 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.385,0.22,0.54 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.214,0.438 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.482,0.322,0.624 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.638,0.434,0.765 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.508,0.348,0.645 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.077,-0.125,-0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.031,-0.083,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.006,-0.049,0.037 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.091,0.636,0.018,-0.025,0.075 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,-0.003,-0.05,0.044 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.0,-0.139,0.12 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.27,0.176,0.374 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.347,0.238,0.456 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.316,0.229,0.403 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.371,0.259,0.488 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.492,0.389,0.58 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.553,0.411,0.67 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.51,0.406,0.597 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.215,-0.32,-0.123 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.1,-0.207,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.013,-0.043,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.659,-0.025,-0.062,0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.005,-0.022,0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,0.003,-0.046,0.048 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.027,-0.119,0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.018,-0.015,0.055 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.143,0.06,0.237 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.291,0.141,0.433 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.387,0.203,0.553 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.396,0.212,0.568 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.203,0.472 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.492,0.322,0.638 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.645,0.444,0.767 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.517,0.352,0.657 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.049,-0.106,0.033 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.005,-0.065,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.273,0.089,0.545,0.02,-0.064,0.128 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.044,-0.049,0.151 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.026,-0.041,0.106 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.043,-0.038,0.138 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.165,0.076,0.257 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.16,0.465 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.403,0.225,0.565 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.237,0.582 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.355,0.21,0.497 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.355,0.646 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.654,0.478,0.774 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.383,0.662 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.096,-0.148,-0.047 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.05,-0.112,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.024,-0.056,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.091,0.636,0.001,-0.044,0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.018,-0.058,0.015 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.045,-0.16,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.128,0.05,0.215 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.278,0.126,0.421 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.376,0.182,0.547 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.386,0.195,0.562 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.192,0.461 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.483,0.307,0.628 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.639,0.427,0.764 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.508,0.337,0.65 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.393,-0.149 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.203,-0.327,-0.112 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.174,-0.307,-0.071 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.145,-0.289,-0.032 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.167,-0.311,-0.064 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.198,-0.345,-0.082 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.146,-0.274,-0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.004,-0.123,0.11 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.273,0.185,0.365 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.349,0.245,0.453 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.237,0.403 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.373,0.266,0.484 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.493,0.391,0.584 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.555,0.43,0.666 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.512,0.409,0.6 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.22,-0.33,-0.127 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.104,-0.226,0.014 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.017,-0.14,0.098 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.028,-0.152,0.088 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.002,-0.109,0.109 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.0,-0.137,0.122 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.004,-0.124,0.11 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.172,-0.013,0.339 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.285,0.117,0.452 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.296,0.123,0.481 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.227,0.054,0.389 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.407,0.2,0.573 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.586,0.353,0.731 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.436,0.233,0.594 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.518,-0.937,-0.229 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.454,-0.84,-0.195 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.419,-0.764,-0.166 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.384,-0.665,-0.173 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.41,-0.765,-0.164 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.868,-0.19 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.385,-0.726,-0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.208,-0.513,0.013 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.27,0.157,0.38 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.347,0.251,0.438 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.316,0.213,0.415 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.371,0.263,0.473 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.492,0.358,0.604 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.553,0.427,0.666 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.51,0.378,0.619 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.945,-0.449 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.749,-0.326 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.394,-0.587,-0.239 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.409,-0.639,-0.24 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.368,-0.55,-0.223 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.371,-0.596,-0.214 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.375,-0.575,-0.227 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.37,-0.614,-0.186 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.773,0.544,1.0,0.136,0.012,0.287 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.682,0.409,0.909,0.149,0.02,0.284 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.066,-0.002,0.137 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.284,0.152,0.409 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.5,0.226,0.692 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.319,0.181,0.445 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.756,-1.462,-0.33 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.682,-1.302,-0.284 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.641,-1.237,-0.253 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.601,-1.134,-0.255 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.631,-1.239,-0.255 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.674,-1.3,-0.291 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.602,-1.207,-0.222 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.398,-0.825,-0.132 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.227,0.0,0.456,-0.157,-0.403,-0.013 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.795,0.614,0.955,0.105,0.036,0.203 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.727,0.544,0.909,0.062,0.019,0.105 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.636,0.955,0.138,0.07,0.222 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.303,0.203,0.393 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.388,0.219,0.54 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.328,0.229,0.417 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.867,-1.229,-0.57 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.69,-0.989,-0.443 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.557,-0.838,-0.343 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.574,-0.869,-0.347 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.528,-0.804,-0.316 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.531,-0.838,-0.312 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.537,-0.827,-0.324 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.531,-0.778,-0.336 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.045,0.386,-0.117,-0.254,-0.037 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.682,0.409,0.909,0.016,-0.047,0.077 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.08,-0.355,0.089 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.171,-0.14,0.388 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.421,0.032,0.665 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.212,-0.082,0.42 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.784,-1.534,-0.344 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.709,-1.402,-0.312 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.667,-1.325,-0.265 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.626,-1.173,-0.283 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.657,-1.315,-0.27 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.701,-1.393,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.628,-1.282,-0.242 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.42,-0.925,-0.14 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.318,0.091,0.591,-0.175,-0.396,-0.02 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.318,0.091,0.591,-0.016,-0.083,0.045 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.097,-0.345,0.075 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.158,-0.147,0.376 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.412,0.031,0.657 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.2,-0.092,0.41 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-1.073,-0.332 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.557,-0.955,-0.285 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.889,-0.264 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.781,-0.272 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.894,-0.255 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.55,-0.989,-0.266 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.483,-0.856,-0.238 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.294,-0.636,-0.057 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.071,-0.159,0.002 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.074,-0.098,0.262 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.089,-0.081,0.257 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.409,0.182,0.592,-0.048,-0.193,0.046 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.545,0.909,0.037,-0.013,0.084 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.222,0.036,0.352 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.316,0.103,0.497 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.25,0.065,0.38 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.782,-1.071,-0.558 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.85,-0.411 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.486,-0.683,-0.324 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.728,-0.327 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.645,-0.309 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.461,-0.676,-0.297 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.675,-0.31 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.461,-0.709,-0.271 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.273,0.091,0.456,-0.066,-0.117,-0.019 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.591,0.408,0.818,0.046,-0.049,0.162 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.233,0.066,0.368 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.464,0.191,0.656 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.271,0.105,0.401 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.12,-1.976,-0.569 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.03,-1.845,-0.517 -Naive,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.98,-1.771,-0.465 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.932,-1.659,-0.474 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.968,-1.764,-0.474 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.02,-1.825,-0.55 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.933,-1.688,-0.444 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.687,-1.343,-0.25 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.396,-0.691,-0.18 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.207,-0.635,0.123 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.188,-0.602,0.128 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.304,-0.582,-0.071 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.081,-0.008,0.185 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.257,0.148,0.355 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.347,0.171,0.503 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.284,0.177,0.38 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.94,-1.374,-0.616 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.756,-1.125,-0.485 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.617,-0.937,-0.386 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.635,-0.996,-0.389 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.587,-0.905,-0.359 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.591,-0.954,-0.349 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.596,-0.938,-0.363 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.59,-0.896,-0.357 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.045,0.364,-0.16,-0.285,-0.075 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.091,0.455,-0.039,-0.092,0.013 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.088,-0.227,0.008 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.191,0.008,0.328 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.289,0.066,0.473 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.221,0.038,0.355 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.399,-1.946,-0.908 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.171,-1.624,-0.777 +Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.0,-1.421,-0.669 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.022,-1.461,-0.678 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.963,-1.368,-0.643 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.967,-1.38,-0.637 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.974,-1.401,-0.642 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.967,-1.522,-0.557 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.435,-0.649,-0.254 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.285,-0.543,-0.037 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.346,-0.549,-0.174 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.237,-0.487,-0.008 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.302,-0.079,0.564 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.049,0.022,0.082 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.273,-2.035,-3.709,-0.895 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.906,-3.421,-0.871 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.835,-3.385,-0.758 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.766,-3.261,-0.768 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.818,-3.285,-0.798 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.893,-3.43,-0.915 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.768,-3.239,-0.745 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.0,0.455,-1.415,-2.714,-0.545 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.999,-2.245,-0.292 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.728,-1.985,-0.033 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.701,-1.917,-0.032 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.866,-1.904,-0.236 -AutoETS,Naive,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.432,-1.294,0.073 +Naive,AutoETS,0.545,0.363,0.727,0.121,-0.128,0.347 +Naive,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.036,0.02,0.055 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.729,-2.697,-1.123 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.47,-2.244,-0.949 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.276,-2.025,-0.753 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.301,-2.071,-0.797 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.233,-1.956,-0.742 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.238,-2.026,-0.699 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.246,-1.995,-0.754 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.237,-1.993,-0.744 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.633,-1.173,-0.281 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.462,-0.986,-0.115 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.531,-1.013,-0.206 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.407,-0.899,-0.071 +AutoETS,Naive,0.455,0.273,0.637,-0.138,-0.532,0.113 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.361,-1.198,0.124 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.229,-2.114,-0.634 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.135,-2.016,-0.582 -Drift,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.083,-1.937,-0.526 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.032,-1.819,-0.534 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.07,-1.917,-0.542 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.125,-1.958,-0.62 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.033,-1.856,-0.509 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.774,-1.466,-0.304 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.468,-0.803,-0.221 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.269,-0.724,0.075 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.249,-0.694,0.084 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.371,-0.668,-0.117 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.089,-0.022 -Drift,AutoETS,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.265,-0.142,0.545 +AutoETS,Drift,0.591,0.364,0.774,-0.097,-0.461,0.145 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.488,-2.076,-0.985 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.252,-1.74,-0.834 +Drift,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.075,-1.525,-0.719 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.098,-1.556,-0.734 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.036,-1.468,-0.692 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.041,-1.478,-0.685 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.048,-1.501,-0.693 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.04,-1.623,-0.608 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.489,-0.716,-0.298 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.333,-0.614,-0.069 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.396,-0.613,-0.215 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.283,-0.551,-0.039 +Drift,Naive,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.037,-0.058,-0.02 +Drift,AutoETS,0.409,0.226,0.636,0.088,-0.17,0.316 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 3934bf732741e57f979a2ce274a0c78d8a85ad82..563b8ed78709a16ad21ec8f52208e1d729fd32bb 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.049,0.008,0.09 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.072,0.023,0.127 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.102,0.038,0.185 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.074,0.013,0.126 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.065,0.138 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.12,0.077,0.161 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.194,0.353 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.497,0.351,0.632 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.394,0.652 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.437,0.714 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.691,0.583,0.771 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.68,0.823 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.902,0.767,0.965 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.691,0.831 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.051,-0.099,-0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.025,-0.022,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.057,-0.002,0.123 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.026,-0.03,0.078 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.055,0.024,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.075,0.033,0.125 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.235,0.162,0.318 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.472,0.324,0.602 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.371,0.628 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.419,0.695 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.675,0.555,0.764 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.754,0.663,0.815 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.898,0.754,0.963 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.673,0.824 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.078,-0.145,-0.023 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.025,-0.088,0.021 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.166,0.087,0.238 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.166,0.089,0.237 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.113,0.056,0.166 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.189,0.107,0.27 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.127,0.256 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.134,0.264 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.25,0.186,0.313 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.439,0.59 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.536,0.462,0.603 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.597,0.518,0.669 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.58,0.71 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.813,0.696,0.893 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.721,0.809 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.775,0.727,0.815 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.199,-0.312,-0.095 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.033,-0.001,0.075 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.455,0.911,0.002,-0.109,0.078 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.727,0.455,0.911,0.031,-0.029,0.08 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.052,0.019,0.083 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.138,0.306 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.458,0.299,0.592 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.495,0.341,0.619 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.555,0.392,0.685 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.667,0.549,0.757 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.748,0.647,0.814 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.895,0.744,0.963 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.657,0.82 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.114,-0.227,-0.039 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.06,-0.141,0.002 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.034,-0.081,0.001 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.273,0.818,-0.032,-0.16,0.059 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.364,0.909,-0.002,-0.076,0.056 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.02,-0.051,0.066 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.189,0.094,0.295 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.287,0.567 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.478,0.327,0.602 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.54,0.382,0.665 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.655,0.535,0.748 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.637,0.807 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.892,0.736,0.962 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.748,0.645,0.816 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.08,-0.145,-0.013 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.091,0.636,-0.027,-0.084,0.029 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.273,0.089,0.545,-0.002,-0.085,0.098 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.455,0.182,0.727,0.031,-0.062,0.138 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.0,-0.041,0.034 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.064,-0.187,0.043 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.027,-0.023,0.065 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.032,-0.001,0.06 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.041,0.019,0.061 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.101,-0.006,0.194 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.332,0.508 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.444,0.353,0.531 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.424,0.603 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.579,0.488,0.66 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.629,0.88 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.654,0.778 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.662,0.785 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.2,-0.31,-0.098 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.0,-0.035,0.039 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.065,-0.186,0.034 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.34,0.727,0.027,-0.022,0.072 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.659,0.477,0.818,0.031,0.0,0.062 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.705,0.523,0.886,0.041,-0.001,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.1,-0.019,0.195 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.325,0.514 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.345,0.536 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.416,0.61 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.579,0.484,0.664 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.626,0.879 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.655,0.78 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.664,0.786 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.127,-0.199,-0.06 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.06,-0.045,0.158 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.061,-0.035,0.157 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.029,-0.024,0.082 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.05,-0.025,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.114,0.315 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.457,0.304,0.594 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.352,0.618 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.403,0.686 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.666,0.542,0.751 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.747,0.668,0.805 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.898,0.758,0.963 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.679,0.813 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.112,-0.16,-0.069 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.058,-0.102,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.273,0.089,0.545,-0.032,-0.086,0.028 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.091,0.636,0.002,-0.059,0.07 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.03,-0.089,0.024 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.086,-0.028,0.2 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.408,0.818,0.09,0.007,0.178 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.099,0.012,0.183 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.155,0.052,0.247 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.458,0.364,0.539 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.477,0.39,0.552 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.458,0.624 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.522,0.676 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.793,0.665,0.884 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.686,0.787 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.747,0.693,0.792 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.233,-0.369,-0.12 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.028,-0.07,0.022 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.273,0.66,-0.028,-0.078,0.021 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.094,-0.251,0.027 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.004,-0.046,0.053 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.014,-0.037,0.071 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.075,-0.049,0.183 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.407,0.308,0.503 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.428,0.328,0.525 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.399,0.603 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.467,0.656 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.771,0.618,0.876 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.715,0.641,0.772 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.723,0.651,0.779 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.344,-0.145 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.033,-0.064,0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.341,0.182,0.523,-0.032,-0.066,-0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.182,0.592,-0.099,-0.217,-0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.005,-0.056,0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.022,-0.018,0.067 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.103,0.288 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.287,0.58 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.335,0.607 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.384,0.678 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.656,0.534,0.746 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.74,0.648,0.804 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.893,0.744,0.962 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.749,0.656,0.812 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.136,-0.191,-0.084 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.081,-0.142,-0.034 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.054,-0.091,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.02,-0.071,0.049 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.182,0.727,-0.052,-0.157,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.022,-0.072,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.01,-0.019,0.041 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.071,-0.042,0.169 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.313,0.494 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.333,0.516 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.404,0.593 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.476,0.649 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.771,0.615,0.876 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.646,0.768 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.656,0.775 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.358,-0.155 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.043,-0.066,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.295,0.114,0.477,-0.042,-0.087,0.001 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.11,-0.224,-0.012 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.014,-0.076,0.036 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.01,-0.042,0.019 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.097,0.258 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.268,0.571 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.467,0.317,0.599 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.366,0.673 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.648,0.523,0.743 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.734,0.629,0.803 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.891,0.731,0.962 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.743,0.642,0.811 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.547,-0.241 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.308,-0.467,-0.193 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.441,-0.16 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.234,-0.418,-0.104 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.273,-0.461,-0.129 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.405,-0.115 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.21,-0.347,-0.107 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.062,-0.043,0.153 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.306,0.484 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.42,0.325,0.51 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.401,0.584 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.472,0.645 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.612,0.876 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.711,0.643,0.766 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.719,0.65,0.774 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.333,-0.455,-0.229 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.112,-0.241,0.006 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.111,-0.243,0.018 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.183,-0.328,-0.055 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.081,-0.225,0.047 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.077,-0.204,0.041 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.066,-0.181,0.041 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.818,0.545,1.0,0.309,0.157,0.458 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.355,0.212,0.486 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.432,0.275,0.579 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.43,0.682 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.678,0.57,0.754 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.872,0.675,0.957 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.689,0.581,0.765 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.989,-1.715,-0.54 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.892,-1.512,-0.479 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.846,-1.449,-0.427 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.309,-0.402 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.842,-1.462,-0.437 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.379,-0.403 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.75,-1.33,-0.365 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.0,0.455,-0.447,-0.847,-0.187 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.358,0.266,0.443 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.382,0.29,0.462 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.462,0.369,0.545 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.445,0.608 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.593,0.869 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.617,0.752 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.627,0.759 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.077,-1.437,-0.782 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.732,-1.032,-0.496 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.732,-1.059,-0.482 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.844,-1.171,-0.573 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.685,-1.011,-0.446 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.677,-0.975,-0.455 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.937,-0.441 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.558,-0.796,-0.363 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.682,0.409,0.909,0.067,0.002,0.132 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.178,0.114,0.242 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.385,0.241,0.508 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.534,0.395,0.633 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.821,0.539,0.943 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.551,0.41,0.651 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.133,-1.876,-0.651 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.029,-1.691,-0.589 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.979,-1.623,-0.516 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.914,-1.515,-0.487 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.617,-0.544 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.918,-1.542,-0.504 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.877,-1.496,-0.465 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.551,-0.947,-0.269 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.318,0.091,0.591,-0.072,-0.152,-0.002 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.614,0.409,0.818,0.037,-0.004,0.081 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.977,0.932,1.0,0.162,0.119,0.205 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.271,0.178,0.367 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.628,0.353,0.808 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.52,0.418,0.593 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.533,0.43,0.607 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.156,-1.518,-0.859 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.798,-1.131,-0.546 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.797,-1.156,-0.526 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.913,-1.234,-0.639 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.749,-1.105,-0.488 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-1.067,-0.499 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.724,-1.04,-0.482 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.617,-0.859,-0.409 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.386,0.182,0.591,-0.038,-0.088,0.004 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.773,0.545,1.0,0.119,0.041,0.2 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.189,0.473 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.5,0.376,0.602 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.815,0.522,0.942 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.518,0.393,0.621 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.42,-2.498,-0.777 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.302,-2.279,-0.721 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.245,-2.176,-0.644 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.172,-1.988,-0.619 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.241,-2.188,-0.674 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.176,-2.103,-0.624 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.129,-2.062,-0.578 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.76,-1.375,-0.379 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.216,-0.32,-0.129 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.227,0.0,0.455,-0.135,-0.25,-0.043 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.636,0.955,0.131,0.076,0.182 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.244,0.157,0.337 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.955,0.818,1.0,0.621,0.344,0.806 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.411,0.575 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.423,0.589 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.48,-2.023,-1.074 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.068,-1.516,-0.736 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.067,-1.562,-0.712 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.201,-1.657,-0.845 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.012,-1.517,-0.665 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.456,-0.678 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.984,-1.407,-0.67 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.86,-1.199,-0.585 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.023,0.0,0.068,-0.194,-0.258,-0.135 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.045,0.364,-0.15,-0.223,-0.082 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.251,0.048,0.417 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.433,0.244,0.553 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.791,0.441,0.936 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.909,0.727,1.0,0.453,0.263,0.573 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.232,-3.366,-1.4 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.075,-3.238,-1.247 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.999,-3.12,-1.218 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.901,-2.966,-1.152 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.993,-3.017,-1.184 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.907,-2.939,-1.146 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.844,-2.885,-1.095 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.351,-2.143,-0.755 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.625,-1.032,-0.317 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.515,-0.898,-0.233 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.336,-0.715,-0.05 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.13,0.003,0.249 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.565,0.229,0.782 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.426,0.302,0.517 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.442,0.315,0.534 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.851,-2.443,-1.382 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.377,-1.943,-0.953 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.376,-1.975,-0.938 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.53,-2.088,-1.092 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.312,-1.907,-0.876 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.302,-1.85,-0.907 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.28,-1.816,-0.895 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.138,-1.551,-0.801 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.372,-0.58,-0.216 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.322,-0.507,-0.187 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.149,-0.331,-0.003 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.243,0.032,0.412 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.735,0.278,0.92 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.727,0.455,1.0,0.27,0.06,0.437 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.269,-4.653,-2.123 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.061,-4.419,-1.963 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.961,-4.368,-1.831 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.832,-4.168,-1.754 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.954,-4.12,-2.01 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.84,-4.104,-1.843 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.757,-4.064,-1.695 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.106,-3.059,-1.323 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.146,-1.728,-0.652 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.002,-1.511,-0.603 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.764,-1.238,-0.323 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.321,-0.7,-0.033 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.636,0.364,0.909,0.685,0.148,0.909 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.035,0.02,0.053 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-9.161,-27.196,-3.292 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-8.756,-25.759,-3.062 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-8.543,-25.846,-2.912 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-8.282,-25.0,-2.786 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-8.804,-25.98,-3.13 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-8.336,-25.509,-2.9 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-8.145,-25.111,-2.719 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.808,-21.991,-2.078 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.579,-16.661,-1.167 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.4,-16.184,-1.094 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.091,0.0,0.273,-3.776,-14.679,-0.788 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.364,0.091,0.636,-2.769,-11.458,-0.385 -AutoETS,Naive,0.364,0.091,0.636,-2.171,-10.021,-0.174 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.513,0.154,0.751 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.341,0.203,0.442 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.359,0.225,0.46 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.341,-8.33,-2.287 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.481,-7.326,-1.692 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.473,-7.238,-1.675 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.838,-7.63,-1.983 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-3.371,-7.047,-1.615 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.359,-7.036,-1.597 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.32,-7.05,-1.576 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.117,-6.616,-1.457 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.687,-4.221,-0.546 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.182,-1.637,-4.154,-0.525 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.091,0.455,-1.297,-3.597,-0.296 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.409,0.227,0.636,-1.051,-3.024,-0.182 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.455,0.182,0.727,-2.099,-9.845,-0.141 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.426,-4.917,-2.233 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.211,-4.673,-2.055 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.107,-4.57,-1.915 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.973,-4.444,-1.818 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.099,-4.34,-2.112 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.981,-4.308,-1.91 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.895,-4.292,-1.793 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.22,-3.26,-1.384 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.273,-1.225,-1.863,-0.694 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.075,-1.637,-0.648 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.091,0.0,0.273,-0.829,-1.344,-0.357 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.273,0.0,0.545,-0.37,-0.778,-0.063 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.037,-0.056,-0.021 -Drift,AutoETS,0.545,0.273,0.818,0.677,0.123,0.908 +AutoETS,Naive,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.426,-2.047,0.201 +AutoETS,Drift,0.727,0.545,0.909,-0.396,-1.976,0.224 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.325,-4.244,-2.585 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.606,-3.512,-1.888 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.605,-3.539,-1.902 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.838,-3.69,-2.18 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-2.508,-3.387,-1.786 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.492,-3.309,-1.826 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.459,-3.282,-1.803 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.244,-3.03,-1.61 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.082,-1.456,-0.718 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.006,-1.354,-0.699 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.744,-1.072,-0.432 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.517,-0.793,-0.255 +Naive,AutoETS,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.299,-0.251,0.672 +Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.017,0.038 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.445,-4.405,-2.661 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.707,-3.646,-1.958 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.705,-3.677,-1.978 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.945,-3.816,-2.253 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-2.606,-3.534,-1.862 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.59,-3.437,-1.903 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.555,-3.429,-1.858 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.334,-3.151,-1.678 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.14,-1.548,-0.753 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.431,-0.732 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.792,-1.144,-0.46 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.559,-0.851,-0.29 +Drift,AutoETS,0.273,0.091,0.455,0.284,-0.288,0.664 +Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.028,-0.04,-0.017 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv index d987620cbb79fc36b0e9b3ce415fe4c93e95289e..896c1953a14b52112fc5188aec02f4b7de6d1e6c 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,80.45112781954887,30.346486054383714,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,79.32330827067668,29.611119567140264,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.18796992481202,29.649794036624343,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,63.53383458646616,27.442672378029464,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -AutoETS,63.15789473684211,26.971289813940867,0.0,1.1830381996774193,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.75187969924813,25.16397233295049,0.0,4.826311428846155,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.37593984962406,23.908920054849215,0.0,5.559256408064516,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,50.0,23.095448181188814,0.0,19.6151431922549,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,48.49624060150376,23.379368758202435,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,42.4812030075188,23.438494471781567,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,42.4812030075188,21.75073668058396,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.21052631578947367,0.0 -Drift,40.97744360902255,11.29733850126442,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,28.195488721804512,15.967924529775656,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.488721804511272,3.045358974169443,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.097744360902254,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,84.87394957983193,31.60425731862634,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.41176470588235,30.532536224691174,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,73.94957983193277,29.907299796780073,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,68.90756302521008,29.300272942864037,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,59.243697478991585,27.04334067358627,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoARIMA,53.781512605042,26.95504973130829,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,50.84033613445379,24.962106226025238,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,50.0,23.870081464197433,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,47.47899159663866,22.54132876098356,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 +Drift,45.378151260504204,14.172808093870426,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,40.54621848739495,23.41596396885234,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,39.285714285714285,21.200363608688978,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +Sundial-Base,23.529411764705873,14.82873276930089,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.168067226890756,4.657015263286168,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,12.605042016806726,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv index d5591656d232e88b48eec9b4f15b64d87454c95f..0614712ed0bc83215d17c37d25276e9d4874ead3 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.72180451127818,32.8024392637604,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,86.09022556390977,32.03837957497889,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,71.42857142857143,29.072780832850576,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.54135338345866,28.45791389946951,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.5187969924812,26.155271455138063,0.0,19.6151431922549,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,56.76691729323308,25.862617784260568,0.0,5.559256408064516,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -AutoETS,56.390977443609025,21.242284943391574,0.0,1.1830381996774193,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,53.00751879699249,26.012035965365634,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,48.87218045112781,24.22608104210344,0.0,4.826311428846155,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,46.61654135338346,23.456164964713956,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.21052631578947367,0.0 -AutoTheta,40.60150375939849,21.636844975599345,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Drift,28.19548872180452,3.866494305180501,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,20.67669172932331,11.561747973955438,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.473684210526311,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.097744360902254,-4.917644371540275,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.65546218487397,32.50619250795804,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,86.1344537815126,31.864956176489333,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,75.63025210084032,30.619627501999513,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,62.60504201680671,27.45388712084713,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,62.18487394957981,23.938814370075377,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,56.30252100840336,25.30688806869693,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,55.46218487394958,25.26055614118038,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.470588235294116,25.546718740107966,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,50.0,25.353548217105605,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,43.487394957983184,22.311614614421458,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoTheta,42.85714285714285,22.773093517189103,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 +Drift,31.092436974789923,7.532134668823886,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,17.64705882352941,9.65596394521091,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.445378151260504,-2.479358196357717,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.025210084033615,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 1fe1fefcad77f9d1a6fd28255cb2192343535a76..7b00215fa6623e9da0823f7d46afc2d5be2eee1d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,74.43609022556392,29.523594429021582,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,74.06015037593986,30.95436596954737,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,70.30075187969925,28.454311605631943,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,69.92481203007517,29.85981745634828,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.53383458646616,28.750949881881127,0.0,19.6151431922549,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.14285714285714,24.16137611115601,0.0,5.559256408064516,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -AutoETS,56.015037593984964,26.46333760138987,0.0,1.1830381996774193,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,47.74436090225564,21.3650702369657,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,47.744360902255636,19.854065470377403,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.21052631578947367,0.0 -AutoARIMA,46.99248120300751,26.723021007447723,0.0,4.826311428846155,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,39.47368421052632,22.46591594625198,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Drift,34.96240601503759,9.174749002035632,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,25.563909774436087,11.84467808911236,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,25.375939849624057,3.1196594939971845,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.729323308270676,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,73.52941176470587,31.77346976331744,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,73.52941176470587,30.081050594899338,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,71.42857142857143,31.178074231641617,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,67.64705882352942,28.807732865723988,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.344537815126046,28.918186440902517,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,61.344537815126046,28.748363751928274,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,57.14285714285714,24.73773635509896,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoARIMA,50.4201680672269,28.81554946179643,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,46.42857142857142,21.77797102351108,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,46.00840336134453,19.902282110003313,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoTheta,40.7563025210084,23.951462461638883,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 +Drift,38.23529411764706,12.008595721613913,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 +Naive,25.630252100840334,4.816376607059247,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,21.008403361344538,11.581561125483809,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.546218487394956,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 4df328f180b8026e905586b8f61c327bc04bbfdc..8e48cf7025eb964c4f05e81e4966a6a24d0d1f68 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,81.57894736842105,35.74146068136137,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.82706766917293,34.6952467355472,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.30827067669173,33.48150727790168,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.796992481203,33.72103742130523,0.0,19.6151431922549,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,62.78195488721804,30.569773480784534,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,62.78195488721804,29.816809246980625,0.0,5.559256408064516,0.10526315789473684,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,55.63909774436091,27.972482299427035,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.75939849624059,26.015398583229288,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.21052631578947367,0.0 -AutoETS,51.50375939849624,27.259206957948823,0.0,1.1830381996774193,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,46.616541353383454,26.709174019986737,0.0,4.826311428846155,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.71428571428572,21.562709399925495,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Drift,22.932330827067673,0.5535497915392207,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,22.93233082706767,12.332792870212616,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.977443609022558,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.849624060150376,-6.490580144019575,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,80.67226890756302,34.840937215984916,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.83193277310924,35.31685135274234,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,71.00840336134455,33.16119954820973,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,66.80672268907563,33.27760916396566,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,65.12605042016808,31.993310800171226,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,63.025210084033624,29.78720066477729,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,56.722689075630264,30.176887545915974,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,54.83193277310924,27.870116986324867,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.890756302521,25.33039827401239,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoARIMA,47.47899159663865,27.948988113145624,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,37.81512605042017,22.68721175922429,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 +Drift,24.78991596638655,4.105439058231363,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,20.168067226890756,11.21483343362134,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.126050420168067,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 +Naive,14.705882352941174,-4.030261224151066,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv index 9940fecb11f740b56ce4a89d042b7665aa4f2337..fcd8b3c62a01ecfa7fea823edf88eba031f4e8fc 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.01,-0.042,0.071 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.01,-0.018,0.036 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.04,0.007,0.076 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.046,0.001,0.103 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.069,0.009,0.138 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.085,0.02,0.147 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.094,0.04,0.15 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.091,0.033,0.144 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.09,0.053,0.132 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.11,0.06,0.162 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.215,0.08,0.349 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.125,0.214 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.282,0.18,0.39 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.224,0.382 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.011,-0.076,0.04 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.632,0.421,0.842,-0.001,-0.058,0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.03,-0.043,0.092 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.036,0.019,0.056 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.059,0.026,0.106 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.075,0.005,0.135 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.085,0.0,0.155 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.081,0.05,0.111 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.081,0.023,0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.1,0.034,0.157 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.206,0.092,0.335 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.162,0.082,0.228 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.274,0.169,0.385 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.296,0.206,0.386 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.01,-0.038,0.018 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.368,0.158,0.579,0.001,-0.048,0.055 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.015,-0.023,0.058 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.024,-0.009,0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.033,0.013,0.053 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.02,0.109 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.064,0.031,0.113 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.089,0.057,0.118 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.102,0.05,0.15 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.117,0.063,0.18 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.083,0.363 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.107,0.064,0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.132,0.084,0.175 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.197,0.139,0.26 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.283,0.17,0.419 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.316,0.229,0.413 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.016,-0.062,0.023 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.009,-0.022,0.037 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.017,-0.009,0.042 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,0.01,0.084 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.049,-0.011,0.112 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.074,0.014,0.122 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.088,0.015,0.151 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.763,1.0,0.103,0.044,0.169 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.191,0.047,0.356 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.054,0.135 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.064,0.171 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.14,0.229 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.157,0.409 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.224,0.397 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.025,-0.064,0.009 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.009,-0.038,0.022 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.03,-0.002,0.07 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.037,-0.004,0.089 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.06,0.001,0.125 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.075,0.023,0.132 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.085,0.026,0.142 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.842,0.683,1.0,0.082,0.025,0.133 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.081,0.046,0.117 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.101,0.052,0.151 -TiRex,Drift,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.207,0.084,0.34 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.163,0.11,0.212 -TiRex,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.274,0.176,0.383 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.204,0.386 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.042,-0.082,-0.007 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.031,-0.101,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.031,-0.076,0.002 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.006,-0.058,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.03,-0.028,0.091 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.046,-0.009,0.107 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.057,-0.005,0.12 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.053,-0.018,0.116 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.526,0.921,0.052,0.013,0.089 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.789,0.605,0.922,0.073,0.022,0.125 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.182,0.044,0.327 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.137,0.09,0.183 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.252,0.142,0.367 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.274,0.192,0.349 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.048,-0.114,-0.001 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.038,-0.059,-0.019 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.038,-0.097,0.004 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.006,-0.085,0.055 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.015,0.032 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.039,0.007,0.081 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.04,-0.017,0.107 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.066,0.011,0.111 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.079,0.016,0.137 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.095,0.035,0.159 +TiRex,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.183,0.05,0.346 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.048,0.123 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.11,0.06,0.164 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.177,0.123,0.234 +TiRex,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.265,0.146,0.405 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.202,0.402 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.034,-0.057,-0.013 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.018,-0.043,0.009 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.009,-0.033,0.015 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.024,-0.021,0.079 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.04,-0.038,0.112 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.05,-0.041,0.127 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.047,0.002,0.086 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.046,-0.014,0.099 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.067,-0.006,0.131 -AutoETS,Drift,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.177,0.052,0.314 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.131,0.048,0.194 -AutoETS,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.247,0.14,0.368 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.27,0.174,0.365 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.074,-0.161,-0.009 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.063,-0.118,-0.027 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.064,-0.143,-0.001 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.031,-0.1,0.027 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.025,-0.085,0.021 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.031,-0.008,0.074 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.032,-0.015,0.092 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.058,0.013,0.096 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.071,0.011,0.13 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.087,0.03,0.153 +AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.176,0.045,0.346 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.077,0.039,0.114 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.103,0.052,0.148 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.17,0.116,0.226 +AutoETS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.258,0.141,0.394 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.204,0.392 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.067,-0.122,-0.021 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.05,-0.091,-0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.041,-0.088,-0.007 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.032,-0.08,0.008 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.001,-0.051,0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.028,-0.04,0.082 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.676,0.042,-0.021,0.105 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.058,-0.01,0.13 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.15,-0.005,0.332 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.047,0.009,0.085 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.074,0.016,0.131 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.143,0.095,0.2 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.235,0.11,0.382 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.27,0.182,0.363 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.068,-0.128,-0.032 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.051,-0.126,0.011 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.042,-0.12,0.016 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.033,-0.101,0.015 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.001,-0.045,0.049 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.016,-0.051,0.076 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.027,-0.059,0.107 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.023,-0.033,0.071 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.526,0.314,0.737,0.023,-0.037,0.073 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.044,-0.033,0.11 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.156,0.022,0.295 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.109,0.022,0.188 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.228,0.116,0.349 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.252,0.164,0.331 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.092,-0.173,-0.021 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.081,-0.156,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.082,-0.152,-0.024 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.049,-0.12,0.009 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.042,-0.126,0.037 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.017,-0.082,0.049 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.027,-0.031,0.078 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.041,-0.016,0.093 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.017,0.131 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.149,0.004,0.327 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.046,-0.003,0.093 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.073,0.008,0.132 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.142,0.065,0.22 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.234,0.106,0.381 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.184,0.362 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.097,-0.134,-0.06 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.08,-0.139,-0.014 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.071,-0.125,-0.011 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.061,-0.106,-0.013 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.029,-0.09,0.038 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.027,-0.085,0.03 +AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.014,-0.047,0.067 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.03,0.098 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.126,0.009,0.287 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.02,-0.036,0.072 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,-0.004,0.093 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.119,0.053,0.188 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.213,0.105,0.343 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.25,0.156,0.35 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.113,-0.177,-0.052 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.096,-0.177,-0.015 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.086,-0.159,-0.017 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.077,-0.15,-0.011 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.324,0.765,-0.043,-0.117,0.021 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.042,-0.102,0.016 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.015,-0.072,0.045 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.011,-0.088,0.102 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.007,-0.059,0.072 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.006,-0.05,0.056 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.028,-0.004,0.062 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.142,0.023,0.27 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.094,0.008,0.175 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.215,0.111,0.321 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.239,0.131,0.337 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.104,-0.176,-0.042 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.093,-0.183,-0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.093,-0.166,-0.027 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.06,-0.137,0.005 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.053,-0.145,0.039 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.028,-0.12,0.056 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.011,-0.113,0.081 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.017,-0.078,0.122 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.113,-0.022,0.272 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.006,-0.053,0.066 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.034,-0.001,0.074 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.106,0.015,0.205 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.202,0.083,0.337 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.239,0.127,0.357 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.133,-0.219,-0.067 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.237,-0.115,-0.203,-0.046 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.105,-0.189,-0.037 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.096,-0.181,-0.031 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.062,-0.149,0.01 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.06,-0.151,0.017 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.108,0.029 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.017,-0.139,0.072 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.004,-0.078,0.069 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.004,-0.093,0.068 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.017,-0.079,0.096 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.133,-0.019,0.277 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.085,0.018,0.143 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.207,0.084,0.319 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.231,0.142,0.315 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.1,-0.168,-0.034 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.089,-0.125,-0.053 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.317,-0.089,-0.153,-0.025 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.056,-0.131,0.018 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.049,-0.095,-0.002 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.024,-0.076,0.032 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.007,-0.077,0.056 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.004,-0.075,0.073 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.001,-0.064,0.057 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.021,-0.042,0.076 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.136,0.023,0.262 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.088,0.012,0.161 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.842,0.632,1.0,0.21,0.116,0.309 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.234,0.144,0.321 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.099,-0.153,-0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.088,-0.15,-0.023 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.088,-0.132,-0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.079,0.474,-0.055,-0.097,-0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.048,-0.109,0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.474,0.263,0.686,-0.023,-0.079,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.006,-0.06,0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.004,-0.072,0.085 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.001,-0.06,0.06 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.098,-0.068,0.274 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.011,-0.112,0.063 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.017,-0.098,0.096 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.023,0.155 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.188,0.042,0.333 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.225,0.131,0.323 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.255,-0.571,-0.09 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.236,-0.554,-0.05 +Drift,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.224,-0.528,-0.053 +Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.214,-0.529,-0.047 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.176,-0.496,0.005 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.175,-0.485,-0.004 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.144,-0.403,-0.009 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.127,-0.373,0.021 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.108,-0.378,0.064 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.121,-0.412,0.04 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.089,-0.335,0.061 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.008,-0.301,0.168 +Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.1,0.022,0.18 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.142,-0.129,0.318 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.12,-0.172,-0.068 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.102,-0.156,-0.057 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.093,-0.141,-0.051 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.083,-0.129,-0.041 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.05,-0.093,-0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.048,-0.103,0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.021,-0.077,0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.206,0.647,-0.006,-0.07,0.05 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.011,-0.068,0.101 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.108,-0.042,0.292 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.368,0.184,0.553,0.022,-0.016,0.064 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.137,0.001,0.286 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.089,0.028,0.141 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.842,0.632,1.0,0.21,0.1,0.332 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.234,0.146,0.317 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.193,-0.064 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.112,-0.186,-0.035 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.112,-0.177,-0.055 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.078,0.395,-0.078,-0.143,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.071,-0.15,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.046,-0.124,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.028,-0.066,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.017,-0.106,0.074 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.021,-0.083,0.04 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.632,0.447,0.816,-0.022,-0.069,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.382,0.176,0.588,0.028,-0.011,0.071 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,0.039,0.16 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.197,0.072,0.344 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.234,0.137,0.333 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.152,-0.212,-0.091 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.206,-0.068 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.124,-0.196,-0.064 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.115,-0.174,-0.055 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.08,-0.151,-0.016 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.079,-0.152,-0.008 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.05,-0.103,0.004 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.035,-0.08,0.001 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.017,-0.106,0.089 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.082,-0.065,0.251 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.618,0.412,0.824,-0.029,-0.077,0.011 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.118,-0.013,0.256 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.069,-0.003,0.129 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.842,0.632,1.0,0.193,0.093,0.3 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.218,0.123,0.308 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.273,-0.536,-0.088 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.26,-0.504,-0.101 -Drift,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.261,-0.516,-0.092 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.223,-0.485,-0.046 -Drift,AutoETS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.215,-0.458,-0.055 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.185,-0.418,-0.022 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.166,-0.37,-0.023 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.153,-0.382,0.019 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.158,-0.355,-0.024 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.159,-0.4,-0.001 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.134,-0.344,0.013 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.632,0.421,0.842,-0.056,-0.315,0.121 -Drift,Naive,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.085,0.013,0.155 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.113,-0.133,0.281 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.206,-0.272,-0.142 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.194,-0.295,-0.09 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.194,-0.269,-0.124 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.158,-0.224,-0.098 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.151,-0.241,-0.051 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.123,-0.231,-0.022 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.104,-0.212,-0.008 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.093,-0.167,-0.019 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.097,-0.192,-0.012 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.098,-0.165,-0.029 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.074,-0.148,0.003 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.368,0.158,0.579,0.053,-0.137,0.24 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.075,0.002,0.145 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.174,0.063,0.305 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.212,0.107,0.323 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.245,-0.352,-0.161 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.226,-0.297,-0.163 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.215,-0.305,-0.14 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.205,-0.291,-0.131 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.167,-0.25,-0.105 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.166,-0.282,-0.07 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.135,-0.232,-0.055 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.119,-0.258,-0.016 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.183,-0.023 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.008,-0.202,0.231 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.112,-0.19,-0.041 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.081,-0.17,-0.002 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.133,0.003,0.279 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.16,0.077,0.241 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.392,-0.64,-0.22 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.377,-0.626,-0.204 -Naive,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.378,-0.621,-0.214 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.336,-0.581,-0.166 -Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.328,-0.583,-0.162 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.296,-0.536,-0.131 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.274,-0.473,-0.125 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.261,-0.468,-0.092 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.158,0.0,0.368,-0.265,-0.447,-0.132 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.368,-0.266,-0.496,-0.111 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.158,0.0,0.368,-0.239,-0.428,-0.102 -Naive,Drift,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.093,-0.183,-0.013 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.154,-0.387,-0.003 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.107,-0.039,0.286 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.148,0.059,0.245 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.394,-0.722,-0.204 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.693,-0.187 +Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.36,-0.682,-0.171 +Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.349,-0.649,-0.164 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.307,-0.618,-0.124 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.305,-0.614,-0.118 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.271,-0.522,-0.118 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.252,-0.509,-0.09 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.231,-0.498,-0.044 +Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.111,-0.219,-0.023 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.245,-0.524,-0.077 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.21,-0.44,-0.067 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.119,-0.401,0.038 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.658,0.474,0.816,0.03,-0.172,0.172 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.617,-0.289 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.421,-0.628,-0.26 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.628,-0.257 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.378,-0.536,-0.238 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.369,-0.575,-0.21 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.336,-0.494,-0.197 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.314,-0.508,-0.151 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.3,-0.459,-0.166 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.305,-0.473,-0.168 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.306,-0.464,-0.171 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.278,-0.445,-0.141 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.127,-0.39,0.118 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.19,-0.317,-0.083 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.342,0.184,0.526,-0.031,-0.207,0.147 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.047,-0.198,0.201 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.462,-0.703,-0.297 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.659,-0.288 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.672,-0.253 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.645,-0.256 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.371,-0.571,-0.222 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.566,-0.225 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.333,-0.538,-0.184 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.314,-0.555,-0.145 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.291,-0.476,-0.15 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.165,-0.467,0.114 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.306,-0.5,-0.158 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.269,-0.477,-0.12 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.174,-0.324,-0.063 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.049,-0.251,0.166 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv index 48bccf70a0f9bb281b4e78801602d1506977537d..0767415a55a4e445c962ba03d9cce010f6e17aa2 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.011,-0.013,0.039 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.053,0.002,0.115 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.061,0.031,0.095 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.09,0.045,0.14 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.789,0.632,0.947,0.094,0.032,0.154 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.147,0.061,0.263 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.051,0.137 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.113,0.053,0.184 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.07,0.176 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.142,0.087,0.196 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.301,0.165,0.422 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.194,0.284 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.254,0.399 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.26,0.451 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.011,-0.041,0.013 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.018,0.04 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.027,-0.014,0.065 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.07,0.036,0.102 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.113,0.036,0.23 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.096,0.028,0.159 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.763,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.149 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.051,0.143 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.096,0.034,0.161 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.131,0.076,0.187 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.126,0.071,0.172 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.27,0.122,0.415 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.207,0.298 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.341,0.235,0.459 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.249,0.408 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.01,-0.042,0.018 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.042,-0.006,0.097 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.05,0.016,0.085 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.08,0.036,0.124 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.789,0.632,0.947,0.083,0.035,0.135 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.137,0.05,0.248 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.081,0.046,0.116 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.103,0.047,0.168 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.112,0.065,0.16 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.133,0.078,0.181 -TiRex,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.293,0.17,0.41 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.18,0.279 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.236,0.397 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.26,0.439 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.056,-0.13,-0.002 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.044,-0.107,0.006 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.018,-0.02,0.052 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.061,0.026,0.097 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.104,0.026,0.221 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.088,0.031,0.141 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.088,0.04,0.138 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.047,0.123 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.087,0.031,0.154 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.123,0.074,0.174 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.118,0.069,0.161 +TiRex,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.263,0.132,0.401 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.193,0.298 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.234,0.447 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.319,0.231,0.411 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.028,-0.07,0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.018,-0.055,0.02 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.009,-0.067,0.071 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.04,-0.035,0.1 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.043,-0.031,0.103 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.099,0.023,0.2 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.041,-0.019,0.091 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.064,0.03,0.111 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.073,-0.0,0.133 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.095,0.063,0.128 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.262,0.132,0.388 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.198,0.117,0.262 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.291,0.208,0.371 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.324,0.217,0.421 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.065,-0.105,-0.032 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.053,-0.093,-0.017 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.009,-0.076,0.063 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.044,0.004,0.088 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.088,0.015,0.204 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.071,0.018,0.123 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.072,0.031,0.118 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.068,0.028,0.108 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.037,0.121 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.107,0.058,0.153 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.102,0.07,0.134 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.25,0.118,0.4 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.176,0.291 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.219,0.449 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.225,0.392 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.075,-0.114,-0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.065,-0.107,-0.027 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.046,-0.096,-0.004 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.031,-0.021,0.083 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.035,-0.021,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.092,-0.016,0.218 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.526,0.921,0.033,-0.008,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.056,-0.007,0.121 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.921,0.065,0.014,0.117 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.087,0.019,0.149 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.256,0.106,0.394 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.146,0.232 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.285,0.205,0.354 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.318,0.211,0.421 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.099,-0.162,-0.047 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.087,-0.141,-0.037 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.041,-0.111,0.034 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.032,-0.09,0.021 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.004,-0.077,0.08 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.737,0.062,-0.059,0.198 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.002,-0.071,0.064 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.025,-0.047,0.098 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.035,-0.042,0.102 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.058,0.001,0.115 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.232,0.086,0.364 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.165,0.115,0.213 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.185,0.336 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.296,0.185,0.395 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.368,-0.103,-0.182,-0.034 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.368,-0.091,-0.156,-0.036 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.045,-0.115,0.03 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.036,-0.101,0.02 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.004,-0.086,0.071 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.059,-0.067,0.192 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.002,-0.051,0.044 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.022,-0.045,0.088 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.579,0.368,0.763,0.031,-0.0,0.066 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.054,-0.013,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.229,0.102,0.349 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.162,0.078,0.236 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.683,1.0,0.259,0.157,0.35 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.293,0.2,0.382 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.172,-0.356,-0.065 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.159,-0.33,-0.052 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.11,-0.25,-0.024 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.101,-0.278,0.015 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.526,0.263,0.737,-0.067,-0.247,0.055 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.062,-0.238,0.063 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.046,-0.046,0.181 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.676,0.029,-0.036,0.091 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.029,-0.028,0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.026,-0.013,0.066 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.028,-0.029,0.079 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.066,0.01,0.122 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.061,0.0,0.111 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.215,0.056,0.38 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.197,0.153,0.247 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.292,0.176,0.424 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.275,0.193,0.356 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.127,-0.299,-0.038 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.116,-0.284,-0.026 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.096,-0.256,-0.016 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.048,-0.22,0.044 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.632,0.421,0.842,-0.064,-0.225,0.049 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.039,-0.179,0.074 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,-0.029,-0.197,0.092 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.632,0.421,0.842,-0.005,-0.147,0.093 -AutoETS,Drift,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.181,-0.03,0.336 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.109,-0.037,0.213 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.632,1.0,0.212,0.05,0.33 -AutoETS,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.249,0.075,0.384 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.158,-0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.089,-0.132,-0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.043,-0.1,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.079,0.474,-0.034,-0.076,0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.002,-0.068,0.067 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.002,-0.046,0.049 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,0.061,-0.051,0.183 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.018,-0.214,0.088 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.018,-0.199,0.087 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.022,-0.206,0.069 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.019,-0.198,0.09 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.021,-0.153,0.117 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.015,-0.155,0.106 +AutoETS,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.177,-0.054,0.366 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.158,0.016,0.246 +AutoETS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.258,0.073,0.414 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.239,0.062,0.359 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.107,-0.189,-0.028 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.096,-0.164,-0.032 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.077,-0.141,-0.018 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.324,0.765,-0.03,-0.101,0.035 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.018,-0.097,0.176 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.001,-0.082,0.091 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.735,-0.003,-0.058,0.054 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.063,0.061 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.039,0.004,0.077 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.033,-0.026,0.095 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.192,0.063,0.332 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.173,0.092,0.263 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.271,0.173,0.387 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.253,0.145,0.364 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.237,-0.107,-0.175,-0.052 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.097,-0.16,-0.042 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.077,-0.134,-0.032 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.03,-0.095,0.028 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.017,-0.095,0.166 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.001,-0.1,0.076 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.082,0.057 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.07,0.066 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.038,-0.052,0.104 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.032,-0.019,0.075 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.192,0.04,0.354 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.173,0.118,0.227 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.271,0.152,0.396 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.171,0.336 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.166,-0.054 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.093,-0.14,-0.05 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.073,-0.121,-0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.026,-0.071,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.021,-0.074,0.171 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.265,0.706,0.003,-0.057,0.054 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.061,0.076 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.024,-0.032,0.082 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.526,0.342,0.737,0.033,-0.002,0.075 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.056,-0.003,0.115 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.23,0.097,0.37 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.163,0.101,0.215 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.26,0.179,0.338 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.295,0.198,0.395 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.128,-0.226,-0.055 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.115,-0.202,-0.049 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.068,-0.125,-0.031 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.059,-0.138,0.007 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.026,-0.109,0.045 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.022,-0.097,0.043 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.038,-0.08,0.152 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.024,-0.089,0.031 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.003,-0.054,0.058 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.559,0.353,0.765,0.042,0.006,0.081 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.036,-0.02,0.092 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.195,0.05,0.353 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.176,0.114,0.235 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.273,0.173,0.401 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.255,0.166,0.347 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.106,-0.192,-0.035 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.096,-0.182,-0.032 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.138,-0.038 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.029,-0.086,0.028 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.019,-0.099,0.165 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.065,0.059 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.07,0.066 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.003,-0.061,0.051 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.01,-0.074,0.081 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.033,-0.025,0.084 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.212,0.063,0.351 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.143,0.053,0.223 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.163,0.312 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.278,0.165,0.385 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.139,-0.213,-0.075 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.126,-0.19,-0.07 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.079,-0.154,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.079,0.474,-0.07,-0.132,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.037,-0.114,0.04 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.237,0.632,-0.032,-0.071,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,0.028,-0.102,0.164 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.474,0.263,0.658,-0.035,-0.081,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.01,-0.088,0.069 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.039,-0.039,0.105 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.033,-0.028,0.089 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.193,0.041,0.366 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.174,0.091,0.254 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.272,0.149,0.408 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.174,0.333 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.151,-0.23,-0.082 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.14,-0.211,-0.08 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.12,-0.181,-0.062 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.071,-0.14,-0.01 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.021,-0.133,0.133 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.04,-0.083,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.116,0.049 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.441,0.235,0.647,-0.043,-0.088,-0.006 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.041,-0.118,0.038 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.023,-0.038,0.086 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.204,0.069,0.337 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.134,0.067,0.192 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.235,0.142,0.319 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.27,0.177,0.362 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.166,-0.243,-0.095 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.153,-0.221,-0.085 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.105,-0.147,-0.067 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.095,-0.174,-0.02 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.061,-0.129,-0.001 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.057,-0.136,0.013 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,0.005,-0.103,0.128 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.059,-0.13,0.003 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.034,-0.091,0.025 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.024,-0.094,0.037 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.006,-0.057,0.049 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.16,0.013,0.314 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.14,0.073,0.208 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.242,0.146,0.359 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.223,0.125,0.328 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.144,-0.208,-0.076 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.133,-0.193,-0.074 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.113,-0.155,-0.075 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.065,-0.125,-0.0 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.015,-0.118,0.134 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.034,-0.105,0.025 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.033,-0.081,0.019 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.037,-0.101,0.019 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.035,-0.098,0.027 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.006,-0.052,0.054 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.185,0.052,0.32 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.114,0.038,0.184 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.216,0.138,0.293 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.253,0.154,0.349 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.431,-0.731,-0.198 -Drift,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.415,-0.694,-0.204 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.355,-0.634,-0.152 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.344,-0.65,-0.118 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.302,-0.572,-0.094 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.297,-0.536,-0.114 -Drift,AutoETS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.221,-0.507,0.029 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.299,-0.587,-0.107 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.269,-0.542,-0.067 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.256,-0.508,-0.074 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.227,-0.47,-0.055 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.165,0.024,0.317 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.145,0.082,0.211 +AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.148,0.371 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.228,0.148,0.317 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.37,-0.711,-0.139 +Drift,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.357,-0.671,-0.152 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.333,-0.665,-0.134 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.275,-0.613,-0.059 +Drift,AutoETS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.216,-0.578,0.052 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.238,-0.497,-0.067 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.237,-0.547,-0.042 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.242,-0.546,-0.053 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.239,-0.577,-0.043 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.19,-0.458,-0.013 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.197,-0.465,-0.024 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.632,0.421,0.842,-0.087,-0.354,0.11 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.039,-0.222,0.23 -Drift,Naive,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.084,0.016,0.15 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.316,-0.397,-0.24 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.301,-0.387,-0.219 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.247,-0.355,-0.132 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.303,-0.171 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.198,-0.271,-0.13 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.193,-0.308,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.123,-0.27,0.036 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.195,-0.273,-0.112 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.167,-0.287,-0.056 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.155,-0.238,-0.071 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.129,-0.226,-0.04 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.368,0.158,0.579,0.08,-0.123,0.261 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.024,-0.32,0.166 +Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.098,0.021,0.176 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.075,-0.217,0.272 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.424,-0.261 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.426,-0.24 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.411,-0.214 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.245,-0.328,-0.181 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.188,-0.327,-0.016 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.21,-0.357,-0.102 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.209,-0.293,-0.134 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.213,-0.307,-0.129 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.21,-0.341,-0.1 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.163,-0.262,-0.079 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.17,-0.268,-0.09 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.023,-0.198,0.242 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.116,0.027,0.2 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.157,0.015,0.291 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.488,-0.665,-0.34 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.659,-0.308 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.41,-0.589,-0.263 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.398,-0.547,-0.258 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.506,-0.228 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.317,-0.349,-0.539,-0.187 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.158,0.0,0.368,-0.27,-0.492,-0.053 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.352,-0.51,-0.218 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.454,-0.195 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.306,-0.468,-0.166 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.276,-0.415,-0.161 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.04,-0.299,0.182 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.131,-0.25,-0.028 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.447,0.263,0.632,0.047,-0.129,0.214 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.823,-0.352 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.783,-0.351 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.479,-0.726,-0.277 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.467,-0.726,-0.267 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.421,-0.654,-0.227 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.415,-0.618,-0.25 -Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.332,-0.623,-0.081 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.418,-0.653,-0.246 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.385,-0.627,-0.197 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.371,-0.567,-0.215 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.339,-0.536,-0.182 -Naive,Drift,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.091,-0.177,-0.016 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.186,-0.411,-0.015 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.553,0.368,0.737,-0.049,-0.272,0.114 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.118,-0.026,0.284 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.097,-0.0,0.199 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.518,-0.849,-0.307 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.808,-0.305 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.477,-0.814,-0.281 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.413,-0.737,-0.214 +Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.347,-0.706,-0.079 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.372,-0.632,-0.209 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.371,-0.656,-0.179 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.376,-0.669,-0.209 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.373,-0.688,-0.175 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.319,-0.559,-0.171 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.589,-0.174 +Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.108,-0.214,-0.022 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.134,-0.396,0.025 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.794,-0.025,-0.289,0.149 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.689,-0.331 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.468,-0.697,-0.301 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.441,-0.645,-0.29 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.378,-0.553,-0.239 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.315,-0.56,-0.066 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.339,-0.573,-0.17 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.338,-0.506,-0.207 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.343,-0.531,-0.199 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.5,-0.211 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.287,-0.488,-0.143 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.295,-0.464,-0.174 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.081,-0.374,0.178 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.107,-0.248,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.412,0.206,0.647,0.024,-0.175,0.224 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 360b910a275d99b2a08b2b72f7b95fb38a0d4a07..bfb56577d9ad1c587acf7f6cf2eecbdcd9ff5b1a 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.021,-0.078,0.022 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.015,-0.014,0.044 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.005,-0.092,0.059 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.011,-0.102,0.096 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.071,0.024,0.12 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.042,-0.018,0.101 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.121,0.057,0.187 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.104,0.055,0.15 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.038,-0.049,0.113 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.091,-0.031,0.18 -TiRex,Drift,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.224,0.062,0.373 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.201,0.134,0.263 -TiRex,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.273,0.133,0.405 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.295,0.187,0.391 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.02,-0.023,0.073 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.025,-0.112,0.041 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.016,-0.075,0.03 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.018,-0.018,0.05 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.016,-0.101,0.105 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.038,0.072 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.071,0.016,0.12 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.018,-0.076,0.095 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.106,0.053,0.159 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.127,0.058,0.195 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.081,-0.052,0.175 +TiRex,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.205,0.015,0.38 +TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.099,0.427 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.209,0.136,0.275 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.301,0.182,0.409 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.024,-0.042,0.101 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.009,-0.05,0.086 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.042,-0.027,0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.04,-0.018,0.102 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.042,0.01,0.084 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.093,0.016,0.162 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.042,0.002,0.075 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.128,0.047,0.207 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.148,0.066,0.23 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.103,0.036,0.164 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.225,0.074,0.398 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.283,0.133,0.437 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.145,0.31 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.224,0.401 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.016,-0.031,0.069 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.009,-0.095,0.047 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.035,-0.009,0.091 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.016,-0.07,0.08 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.031,-0.067,0.102 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.09,0.019,0.157 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.061,0.002,0.12 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.139,0.061,0.209 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.122,0.053,0.199 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.058,-0.026,0.127 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.109,-0.019,0.192 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.24,0.066,0.394 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.151,0.285 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.287,0.148,0.418 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.31,0.215,0.398 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.015,-0.046,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.036,-0.1,0.009 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.033,-0.017,0.094 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.032,-0.07,0.112 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.011,0.074 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.002,0.159 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.033,-0.056,0.101 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.12,0.04,0.2 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.141,0.054,0.225 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.095,-0.037,0.184 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.218,0.025,0.397 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.277,0.123,0.428 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.148,0.287 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.312,0.203,0.41 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.018,-0.052,0.018 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.043,-0.145,0.026 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.034,-0.104,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.02,-0.119,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.004,-0.131,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.057,-0.005,0.12 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.027,-0.041,0.093 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.552,0.921,0.107,0.036,0.178 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.789,0.605,0.947,0.09,0.036,0.146 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.024,-0.074,0.099 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.077,-0.057,0.174 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.212,0.032,0.375 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.13,0.244 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.842,0.683,1.0,0.262,0.107,0.404 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.285,0.184,0.378 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.005,-0.063,0.085 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.016,-0.087,0.065 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.02,-0.053,0.106 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.016,-0.058,0.086 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.075,0.007,0.149 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.046,0.015,0.084 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.125,0.049,0.204 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.108,0.029,0.188 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.043,0.009,0.074 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.095,0.034,0.154 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.842,0.683,1.0,0.228,0.089,0.373 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.204,0.117,0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.276,0.14,0.407 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.299,0.21,0.38 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.011,-0.107,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.032,-0.114,0.063 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.004,-0.102,0.116 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.016,-0.094,0.054 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.134,0.098 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.066,0.058 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.054,-0.015,0.12 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,-0.0,-0.106,0.079 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.09,0.032,0.151 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.111,0.034,0.186 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.064,-0.08,0.169 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.191,-0.023,0.382 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.252,0.061,0.423 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.131,0.257 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.288,0.174,0.389 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.017,-0.117,0.092 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.042,-0.113,0.018 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.033,-0.126,0.065 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.108,0.118 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.061,-0.044,0.151 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.031,-0.056,0.113 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.111,-0.004,0.209 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.094,-0.022,0.199 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.028,-0.055,0.104 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.081,0.008,0.146 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.216,0.065,0.362 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.192,0.1,0.283 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.265,0.135,0.392 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.288,0.204,0.362 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.076,-0.136,-0.024 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.098,-0.187,-0.019 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.06,-0.136,0.005 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.081,-0.175,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.064,-0.178,0.042 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.474,0.211,0.684,-0.031,-0.111,0.043 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.816,0.054,0.012,0.1 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.632,0.421,0.816,0.036,-0.017,0.08 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.035,-0.127,0.048 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.022,-0.093,0.111 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.165,0.016,0.309 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.14,0.044,0.216 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.217,0.082,0.344 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.242,0.126,0.344 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.043,-0.112,0.018 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.065,-0.136,-0.002 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.028,-0.102,0.04 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.048,-0.092,-0.015 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.032,-0.127,0.053 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.526,0.316,0.789,0.03,-0.045,0.1 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.091,0.08 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.056,-0.064,0.153 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.079,0.066 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.091,-0.037,0.205 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.113,-0.016,0.222 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.065,-0.011,0.131 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.192,0.03,0.374 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.253,0.103,0.41 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.196,0.1,0.291 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.188,0.371 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.019,-0.078,0.036 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.044,-0.092,-0.01 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.08,0.011 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.062,0.062 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.087,0.083 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.082,0.007,0.152 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.065,-0.004,0.137 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.004,-0.065,0.053 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.052,-0.038,0.118 -AutoETS,Drift,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.19,0.029,0.349 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.166,0.088,0.231 -AutoETS,Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.241,0.102,0.383 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.265,0.176,0.355 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.137,-0.229,-0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.161,-0.264,-0.065 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.079,0.448,-0.12,-0.216,-0.037 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.143,-0.256,-0.051 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.125,-0.265,0.003 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.184,0.579,-0.057,-0.111,-0.012 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.09,-0.179,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.632,0.421,0.789,-0.019,-0.073,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.094,-0.223,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.034,-0.161,0.06 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.118,-0.055,0.277 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.091,0.01,0.164 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.173,0.028,0.307 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.199,0.086,0.308 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.116,-0.177,-0.058 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.139,-0.249,-0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.395,-0.099,-0.171,-0.037 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.121,-0.232,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.104,-0.249,0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.184,0.579,-0.037,-0.087,0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.069,-0.159,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.368,0.211,0.579,0.019,-0.025,0.068 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.073,-0.193,0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.737,0.526,0.895,-0.014,-0.149,0.088 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.134,-0.055,0.307 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.789,0.632,0.947,0.108,0.028,0.174 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.188,0.023,0.338 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.214,0.091,0.326 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.04,-0.127,0.047 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.061,-0.145,0.026 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.024,-0.109,0.069 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.045,-0.08,-0.009 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.028,-0.116,0.052 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.034,-0.05,0.113 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.004,-0.056,0.061 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.086,-0.014,0.182 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.068,-0.032,0.162 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.053,-0.018,0.117 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.079,0.056 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.089,0.022,0.15 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.11,0.04,0.175 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,-0.033,0.131 +AutoETS,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.19,0.012,0.377 +AutoETS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.251,0.094,0.41 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.194,0.124,0.256 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.198,0.376 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.076,-0.136,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.103,-0.193,-0.017 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.189,-0.002 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.057,-0.136,0.015 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.059,-0.181,0.06 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.056,-0.132,0.018 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.057,-0.158,0.035 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.038,-0.019,0.086 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.06,0.016,0.112 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.01,-0.111,0.11 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.145,-0.034,0.312 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.209,0.051,0.359 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.149,0.044,0.234 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.247,0.11,0.364 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.018,-0.105,0.071 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.043,-0.081,-0.002 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.034,-0.112,0.053 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,0.0,-0.086,0.096 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.071,0.073 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.059,0.073 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.054,-0.036,0.136 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.055,-0.027,0.137 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.193,0.039,0.349 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.472,0.895,0.169,0.062,0.264 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.244,0.093,0.39 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.267,0.162,0.367 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.1,-0.22,0.03 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.123,-0.238,0.019 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.084,-0.21,0.054 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.105,-0.182,-0.036 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.088,-0.17,-0.008 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.022,-0.125,0.085 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.054,-0.133,0.037 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.033,-0.064,0.139 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.263,0.105,0.474,0.014,-0.097,0.13 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.058,-0.159,0.026 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.09,-0.01,0.191 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.111,0.002,0.22 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.064,-0.025,0.147 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.191,0.029,0.372 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.252,0.083,0.423 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.195,0.085,0.298 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.288,0.178,0.39 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.119,-0.19,-0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.147,-0.26,-0.049 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.137,-0.25,-0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.099,-0.177,-0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.1,-0.257,0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.098,-0.177,-0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.039,-0.094,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.099,-0.236,0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.382,0.205,0.588,0.023,-0.024,0.076 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.941,-0.029,-0.171,0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.111,-0.104,0.312 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.178,-0.02,0.361 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.115,0.028,0.191 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.218,0.087,0.337 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.146,-0.243,-0.062 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.174,-0.299,-0.07 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.164,-0.291,-0.058 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.125,-0.228,-0.035 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.127,-0.285,0.015 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.124,-0.212,-0.042 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.064,-0.127,-0.016 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.125,-0.281,-0.002 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.618,0.412,0.795,-0.024,-0.082,0.023 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.053,-0.183,0.053 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.09,-0.107,0.279 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.158,-0.004,0.315 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.094,0.002,0.179 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.199,0.073,0.326 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.088,-0.212,0.049 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.115,-0.197,-0.037 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.105,-0.226,0.035 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.068,-0.203,0.074 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.07,-0.151,0.011 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.151,0.032 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.01,-0.124,0.1 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.068,-0.173,0.024 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.059,0.529,0.028,-0.085,0.146 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.051,-0.056,0.155 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.146,0.018,0.288 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.12,0.023,0.225 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.2,0.071,0.33 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.789,0.632,0.947,0.225,0.138,0.307 -Drift,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.289,-0.595,-0.066 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.315,-0.651,-0.07 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.269,-0.601,-0.033 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.317,-0.295,-0.594,-0.097 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.275,-0.568,-0.07 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.198,-0.448,-0.016 -Drift,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.235,-0.536,-0.03 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.133,-0.383,0.052 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.155,-0.444,0.052 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.239,-0.536,-0.041 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.171,-0.405,-0.018 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.136,0.003,0.317 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.201,0.065,0.356 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.14,0.037,0.255 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.24,0.146,0.322 +Drift,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.258,-0.613,-0.015 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.29,-0.662,-0.08 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.279,-0.657,-0.025 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.236,-0.619,0.023 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.238,-0.598,-0.03 +Drift,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.235,-0.606,-0.012 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.169,-0.454,0.033 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.236,-0.593,-0.03 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.125,-0.453,0.094 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.099,-0.387,0.097 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.157,-0.465,-0.003 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.03,-0.332,0.17 -Drift,Naive,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.063,-0.027,0.155 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.092,-0.176,0.266 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.251,-0.357,-0.155 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.399,-0.178 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.232,-0.322,-0.15 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.257,-0.398,-0.133 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.237,-0.394,-0.111 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.162,-0.276,-0.046 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.199,-0.3,-0.097 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.1,-0.196,-0.01 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.211,0.053,0.368,-0.121,-0.211,-0.029 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.316,0.105,0.528,-0.203,-0.359,-0.066 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.137,-0.29,-0.023 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.029,-0.205,0.249 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.09,-0.095,0.268 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.737,0.526,0.896,0.118,0.017,0.205 -Naive,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.375,-0.68,-0.153 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.403,-0.719,-0.174 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.0,0.317,-0.354,-0.678,-0.12 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.381,-0.685,-0.163 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.36,-0.645,-0.155 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.277,-0.525,-0.09 -Naive,AutoETS,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.317,-0.62,-0.114 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.209,-0.443,-0.029 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.232,-0.511,-0.023 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.322,-0.64,-0.103 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.25,-0.492,-0.077 -Naive,Drift,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.067,-0.183,0.026 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.099,-0.366,0.087 +Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.076,-0.02,0.179 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.005,-0.347,0.218 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.12,-0.22,0.302 +Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.746,-0.11 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.395,-0.775,-0.154 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.383,-0.747,-0.141 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.337,-0.733,-0.065 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.339,-0.696,-0.115 +Naive,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.336,-0.695,-0.104 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.265,-0.559,-0.054 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.337,-0.733,-0.091 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.217,-0.564,0.02 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.188,-0.46,0.004 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.252,-0.553,-0.069 +Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.082,-0.218,0.019 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.658,0.474,0.816,0.031,-0.206,0.198 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.419,-0.641,-0.229 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.448,-0.661,-0.274 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.398,-0.607,-0.226 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.426,-0.612,-0.266 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.404,-0.567,-0.256 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.319,-0.525,-0.144 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.36,-0.551,-0.214 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.248,-0.444,-0.094 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.272,-0.483,-0.101 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.365,-0.579,-0.193 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.211,0.053,0.368,-0.29,-0.444,-0.161 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.101,-0.363,0.15 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.263,0.104,0.474,-0.134,-0.258,-0.017 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.342,0.184,0.526,-0.032,-0.247,0.171 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.077,-0.413,0.123 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.048,-0.261,0.223 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.265,-0.38,-0.158 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.449,-0.17 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.403,-0.174 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.346,-0.151 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.244,-0.411,-0.111 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.241,-0.343,-0.141 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.175,-0.305,-0.046 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.242,-0.425,-0.093 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.13,-0.236,-0.029 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.104,-0.218,-0.002 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.163,-0.342,-0.038 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.005,-0.279,0.257 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.071,-0.14,0.292 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.116,0.004,0.214 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.43,-0.693,-0.222 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.669,-0.289 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.453,-0.695,-0.255 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.405,-0.637,-0.211 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.591,-0.232 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.403,-0.603,-0.246 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.329,-0.572,-0.124 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.405,-0.639,-0.217 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.278,-0.508,-0.095 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.248,-0.484,-0.078 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.315,-0.475,-0.171 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.136,-0.432,0.18 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.051,-0.288,0.207 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.131,-0.272,-0.004 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv index 603dc6e7c4c614cdaa11db69fe49124f67df9333..9fd9f09950c2c7d281c14073e95bf6ab2bf58a10 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.016,-0.022,0.057 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.632,0.42,0.842,0.034,0.003,0.066 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.03,-0.05,0.095 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.074,-0.014,0.151 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.084,0.026,0.145 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.108,0.051,0.166 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.131,0.065,0.196 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.117,0.049,0.182 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.123,0.031,0.211 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.181,0.066,0.271 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.354,0.193,0.484 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.207,0.325 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.357,0.26,0.451 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.397,0.276,0.5 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.016,-0.061,0.022 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.018,-0.016,0.05 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.015,-0.071,0.085 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.059,-0.026,0.132 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.07,0.031,0.112 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.093,0.051,0.136 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.117,0.057,0.183 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.102,0.033,0.169 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.737,0.526,0.947,0.109,0.02,0.194 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.167,0.055,0.258 -TiRex,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.343,0.194,0.466 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.255,0.186,0.317 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.238,0.443 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.274,0.487 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.58,-0.035,-0.07,-0.003 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.019,-0.053,0.016 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.049,0.033 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.025,-0.013,0.059 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.023,-0.072,0.097 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.042,-0.043,0.121 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.072,0.024,0.114 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.067,0.006,0.121 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.145 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.127,0.062,0.194 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.096,0.004,0.19 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.157,0.032,0.256 +TiRex,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.321,0.158,0.466 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.266,0.192,0.336 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.233,0.457 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.25,0.493 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.034,0.046 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.032,-0.002,0.067 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.031,-0.057,0.101 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.049,-0.039,0.124 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.079,0.013,0.143 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,0.025,0.113 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.103,0.039,0.168 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.134,0.06,0.206 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.102,0.007,0.196 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.163,0.042,0.254 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.143,0.481 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.208,0.332 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.353,0.247,0.456 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.378,0.248,0.505 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.026,-0.063,0.013 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.033,-0.072,0.002 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.004,-0.106,0.077 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.042,-0.058,0.119 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.052,-0.005,0.111 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.737,0.526,0.921,0.076,0.022,0.13 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.737,0.552,0.921,0.101,0.032,0.169 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.086,0.005,0.16 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.789,0.63,0.947,0.092,-0.005,0.178 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.152,0.026,0.245 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.331,0.161,0.467 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.184,0.296 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.335,0.235,0.426 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.375,0.248,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.031,-0.105,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.015,-0.093,0.066 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.004,-0.083,0.096 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.108,0.081 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.017,-0.083,0.093 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.048,-0.014,0.112 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.043,-0.024,0.097 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.073,0.017,0.133 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.105,0.031,0.181 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.072,-0.031,0.164 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.135,-0.004,0.235 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.303,0.116,0.462 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.189,0.313 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.332,0.221,0.436 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.358,0.218,0.492 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.024,-0.108,0.067 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.032,-0.112,0.054 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.088,0.097 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.045,-0.03,0.123 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.056,-0.031,0.132 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.08,-0.018,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.684,0.474,0.842,0.104,0.007,0.189 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.089,-0.001,0.172 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.096,0.012,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.155,0.082,0.227 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.334,0.188,0.456 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.163,0.324 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.337,0.257,0.411 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.378,0.261,0.479 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.08,-0.178,0.014 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.063,-0.153,0.025 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.044,-0.135,0.055 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.048,-0.141,0.029 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.019,-0.046,0.083 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.05,-0.051,0.133 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.044,-0.032,0.109 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.075,-0.031,0.169 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.106,-0.004,0.203 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.074,-0.011,0.151 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.137,0.063,0.203 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.304,0.145,0.456 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.165,0.338 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.234,0.423 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.359,0.234,0.484 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.044,-0.138,0.041 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.051,-0.141,0.037 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.017,-0.102,0.077 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.019,-0.09,0.044 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.011,-0.079,0.098 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.474,0.263,0.684,0.036,-0.057,0.125 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.062,-0.043,0.157 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.579,0.316,0.789,0.046,-0.019,0.105 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.053,0.018,0.088 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.115,0.055,0.178 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.302,0.152,0.439 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.683,1.0,0.208,0.113,0.301 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.218,0.386 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.213,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.092,-0.169,-0.027 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.075,-0.126,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.055,-0.125,0.005 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.059,-0.152,0.03 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.011,-0.109,0.074 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.066,0.119 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.026,-0.041,0.082 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.038,0.142 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.089,-0.017,0.186 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.056,0.018,0.09 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.12,0.056,0.188 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.291,0.134,0.447 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.234,0.133,0.333 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.228,0.405 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.214,0.48 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.078,-0.129,-0.025 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.166,-0.013 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.05,-0.126,0.014 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.052,-0.154,0.048 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.135,0.062 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.684,0.474,0.868,0.026,-0.023,0.067 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.632,0.447,0.816,0.051,0.006,0.099 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.035,-0.051,0.118 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.042,-0.061,0.138 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.105,-0.007,0.197 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.294,0.148,0.41 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.199,0.107,0.272 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.298,0.177,0.398 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.341,0.239,0.433 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.121,-0.2,-0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.103,-0.157,-0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.079,0.474,-0.083,-0.149,-0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.087,-0.204,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.526,0.316,0.737,-0.037,-0.142,0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.316,0.132,0.526,-0.026,-0.072,0.022 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.006,-0.092,0.065 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.027,-0.031,0.073 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.06,0.011,0.115 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.026,-0.082,0.134 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.092,-0.025,0.197 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.268,0.112,0.402 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.209,0.113,0.289 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.298,0.157,0.418 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.219,0.432 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.072,-0.137,-0.007 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.079,-0.127,-0.026 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.045,-0.107,0.024 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.046,-0.123,0.031 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.027,-0.089,0.039 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.006,-0.069,0.084 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.032,-0.045,0.099 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.065,-0.018,0.148 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.031,-0.058,0.119 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.097,-0.001,0.182 +AutoETS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.272,0.096,0.444 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.214,0.135,0.291 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.302,0.195,0.407 +AutoETS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.329,0.189,0.468 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.107,-0.17,-0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.115,-0.201,-0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.079,-0.154,-0.017 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.081,-0.203,0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.166,0.037 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.027,-0.078,0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.033,-0.11,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.421,0.237,0.605,0.026,-0.017,0.075 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.01,-0.084,0.093 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.017,-0.094,0.122 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.082,-0.041,0.179 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.276,0.117,0.413 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.178,0.1,0.238 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.28,0.162,0.381 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.324,0.208,0.434 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.151,-0.243,-0.07 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.133,-0.225,-0.061 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.079,0.448,-0.112,-0.204,-0.033 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.316,0.158,0.526,-0.116,-0.233,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.066,-0.186,0.041 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.184,0.553,-0.054,-0.11,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.579,0.395,0.763,-0.027,-0.082,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.441,0.235,0.647,0.034,-0.012,0.086 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.124,0.116 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.067,-0.065,0.176 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.074,0.409 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.188,0.105,0.254 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.279,0.156,0.396 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.307,0.183,0.438 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.146,-0.241,-0.066 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.154,-0.26,-0.064 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.117,-0.221,-0.032 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.119,-0.255,0.004 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.098,-0.228,0.017 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.063,-0.13,-0.011 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.069,-0.173,0.018 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.559,0.353,0.765,-0.035,-0.094,0.012 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.579,0.368,0.789,-0.017,-0.119,0.083 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,-0.009,-0.141,0.111 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.057,-0.06,0.155 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.256,0.103,0.383 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.156,0.081,0.222 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.26,0.15,0.367 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.305,0.202,0.404 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.132,-0.222,-0.052 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.114,-0.203,-0.034 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.094,-0.19,-0.005 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.097,-0.207,0.001 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.421,0.211,0.684,-0.048,-0.118,0.019 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.036,-0.133,0.049 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.01,-0.103,0.077 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.421,0.211,0.632,0.017,-0.09,0.106 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.632,0.421,0.842,0.008,-0.086,0.1 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.073,-0.027,0.159 -AutoETS,Drift,0.842,0.632,1.0,0.269,0.1,0.411 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.17,0.067,0.257 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.273,0.166,0.38 -AutoETS,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.317,0.179,0.441 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.141,-0.267,-0.032 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.263,0.053,0.474,-0.122,-0.24,-0.021 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.211,0.053,0.37,-0.102,-0.216,0.005 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.106,-0.212,-0.012 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.056,-0.096,-0.018 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.044,-0.161,0.057 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.018,-0.139,0.086 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.368,0.158,0.579,0.009,-0.125,0.124 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.368,0.158,0.579,-0.008,-0.111,0.079 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.036,-0.188,0.094 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.087,0.145 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.221,0.051,0.376 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.159,0.071,0.237 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.253,0.126,0.377 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.282,0.165,0.399 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.106,-0.235,-0.004 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.114,-0.244,-0.007 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.078,-0.197,0.03 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.08,-0.177,0.01 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.059,-0.099,-0.019 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.026,-0.154,0.076 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.032,-0.135,0.055 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.131,0.111 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.035,-0.104,0.158 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.066,-0.014,0.155 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.789,0.579,0.947,0.263,0.095,0.404 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.164,0.044,0.278 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.947,0.842,1.0,0.267,0.167,0.364 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.312,0.161,0.439 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.221,-0.372,-0.071 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.201,-0.348,-0.058 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.179,-0.324,-0.027 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.183,-0.294,-0.09 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.13,-0.217,-0.058 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.118,-0.245,0.007 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.089,-0.218,0.04 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.06,-0.183,0.057 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.078,-0.189,0.026 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.07,-0.184,0.014 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.068,-0.02,0.16 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.249,0.079,0.417 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.188,0.058,0.315 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.279,0.174,0.381 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.307,0.155,0.461 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.187,-0.343,-0.033 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.195,-0.34,-0.044 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.157,-0.307,0.004 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.159,-0.254,-0.067 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.137,-0.231,-0.059 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.101,-0.246,0.024 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.107,-0.222,0.001 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.072,-0.214,0.061 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.169,0.08 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.073,-0.191,0.019 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.211,0.059,0.356 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.105,0.001,0.228 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.842,0.684,1.0,0.216,0.139,0.288 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.895,0.737,1.0,0.263,0.137,0.378 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.548,-0.936,-0.239 -Drift,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.523,-0.874,-0.241 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.495,-0.876,-0.192 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.5,-0.839,-0.232 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.432,-0.783,-0.179 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.417,-0.694,-0.173 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.381,-0.704,-0.133 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.344,-0.621,-0.114 -Drift,AutoETS,0.158,0.0,0.368,-0.367,-0.698,-0.111 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.357,-0.678,-0.106 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.268,-0.554,-0.063 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.194,0.039,0.357 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.129,0.019,0.249 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.227,0.144,0.299 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.257,0.129,0.393 +Drift,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.472,-0.873,-0.188 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.483,-0.929,-0.166 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.435,-0.859,-0.131 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.437,-0.838,-0.17 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.41,-0.81,-0.155 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.366,-0.673,-0.126 +Drift,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.373,-0.799,-0.106 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.329,-0.691,-0.079 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.284,-0.602,-0.053 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.331,-0.715,-0.086 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.24,-0.555,-0.041 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.474,0.263,0.684,-0.134,-0.469,0.1 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.006,-0.298,0.214 -Drift,Naive,0.579,0.368,0.789,0.066,-0.016,0.154 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.482,-0.261 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.342,-0.464,-0.229 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.318,-0.42,-0.226 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.478,-0.195 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.158,0.0,0.317,-0.263,-0.431,-0.127 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.249,-0.374,-0.119 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.217,-0.312,-0.111 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.185,-0.285,-0.088 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.205,-0.345,-0.072 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.196,-0.385,-0.046 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.118,-0.295,-0.001 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.526,0.316,0.737,0.118,-0.112,0.319 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.08,-0.452,0.16 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.041,-0.302,0.25 +Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,-0.013,0.174 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.363,-0.507,-0.238 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.497,-0.263 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.457,-0.233 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.511,-0.197 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.306,-0.499,-0.154 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.265,-0.406,-0.127 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.272,-0.41,-0.156 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.231,-0.341,-0.117 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.189,-0.311,-0.077 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.232,-0.461,-0.061 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.148,-0.331,-0.02 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.074,-0.19,0.311 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.737,0.526,0.895,0.123,0.011,0.224 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.684,0.474,0.895,0.177,0.011,0.335 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.556,-0.821,-0.352 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.531,-0.795,-0.312 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.503,-0.742,-0.308 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.509,-0.699,-0.346 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.628,-0.279 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.425,-0.661,-0.216 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.388,-0.615,-0.193 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.352,-0.58,-0.177 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.211,0.053,0.421,-0.375,-0.614,-0.199 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.364,-0.573,-0.201 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.275,-0.404,-0.162 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.006,-0.272,0.229 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.263,0.105,0.474,-0.141,-0.289,-0.012 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.112,-0.011,0.234 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.147,-0.031,0.333 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.842,-0.303 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.546,-0.839,-0.328 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.496,-0.772,-0.283 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.499,-0.733,-0.305 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.681,-0.296 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.424,-0.718,-0.186 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.432,-0.685,-0.243 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.386,-0.655,-0.185 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.339,-0.606,-0.144 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.388,-0.617,-0.211 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.293,-0.426,-0.168 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.333,0.232 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.126,-0.306,0.01 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.447,0.263,0.632,0.061,-0.136,0.253 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.657,-1.001,-0.381 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.951,-0.378 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.601,-0.961,-0.331 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.607,-0.921,-0.353 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.868,-0.271 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.053,0.0,0.158,-0.517,-0.762,-0.315 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.478,-0.768,-0.262 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.158,0.0,0.316,-0.439,-0.678,-0.253 -Naive,AutoETS,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.464,-0.788,-0.218 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.453,-0.783,-0.192 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.105,0.0,0.263,-0.358,-0.607,-0.159 -Naive,Drift,0.421,0.211,0.632,-0.071,-0.182,0.016 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.316,0.105,0.526,-0.215,-0.503,-0.011 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.553,0.368,0.737,-0.065,-0.339,0.119 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.412,0.206,0.647,0.039,-0.185,0.265 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.597,-0.971,-0.333 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.608,-1.02,-0.329 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.556,-0.967,-0.279 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.559,-0.938,-0.306 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.923,-0.273 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.482,-0.759,-0.28 +Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.49,-0.879,-0.233 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.442,-0.779,-0.224 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.393,-0.663,-0.198 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.444,-0.855,-0.183 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.346,-0.648,-0.148 +Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.211,0.013 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.172,-0.5,0.03 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.794,-0.04,-0.36,0.156 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index e11b64d8dedef534256271d0604f7fad45cb4d86..1b091ba8412b3034080cdcb255a392ddb58d7981 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,97.0238095238095,32.83165990960906,0.0,1.373316168392857,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,77.08333333333333,25.81412419737319,0.0,64.03550444473557,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.48809523809524,26.62190910717712,0.0,11.690689039259063,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -TiRex,75.89285714285712,24.65042558993312,0.0,0.5667000547235674,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.23809523809524,23.844815231642112,0.0,2.623775925297619,0.5,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,63.09523809523808,18.98486506099093,0.0,0.5371254556785986,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,60.41666666666667,20.85431804834711,0.0,7.999364937594171,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.52380952380951,18.18138390179136,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,32.44047619047619,-3.3357850071152217,0.0,269.4231966164286,0.0,58.333333333333336 -AutoTheta,30.95238095238095,-2.3201555466303203,0.0,5.676713813157764,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,30.35714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.5228482035820895,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.86904761904762,-5.48714744625185,0.0,20.245989468571427,0.0,58.333333333333336 -AutoETS,21.428571428571427,-32.735718920516035,0.0,19.26142615130952,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Naive,20.238095238095237,-70.66668539615273,0.0,0.48930624529661015,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.9523809523809526,-84.8980432072044,0.0,0.5398865223507463,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.85714285714286,36.605677387649834,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,87.05357142857144,34.31440963476917,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,79.61309523809524,33.08143144251301,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,76.9345238095238,32.09191406128986,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.45238095238095,30.491645603453122,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,62.500000000000014,26.492402114565415,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,60.5654761904762,27.748908020810514,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,56.8452380952381,25.64075867979405,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,31.99404761904762,4.953841003733173,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 +AutoARIMA,31.99404761904762,6.157935798308323,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 +AutoTheta,31.250000000000007,5.870699140858715,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,22.172619047619047,-9.418472845195168,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 +Seasonal Naive,21.875,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 +Naive,19.94047619047619,-29.01179677799075,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 +Drift,5.9523809523809526,-38.47295911331854,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 615af4d8e601779d0fc14bc0b29b087804db2d1e..524549b227554ea385c289e0aac448fe4817ffcc 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,97.0238095238095,42.689670216690864,0.0,1.373316168392857,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,79.4642857142857,34.707868655326834,0.0,0.5667000547235674,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -Toto-1.0,78.86904761904762,35.362908267455495,0.0,64.03550444473557,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.27380952380952,36.1466721241805,0.0,11.690689039259063,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,69.64285714285714,31.059541182175955,0.0,2.623775925297619,0.5,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.07142857142858,32.06829314490637,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,61.60714285714286,27.195736300216645,0.0,7.999364937594171,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.738095238095234,26.25085414643896,0.0,0.5371254556785986,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,33.63095238095239,-4.77416102076984,0.0,269.4231966164286,0.0,58.333333333333336 -AutoARIMA,31.25,-3.3713112188460848,0.0,20.245989468571427,0.0,58.333333333333336 -Seasonal Naive,28.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.5228482035820895,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.80952380952381,-43.03595115812095,0.0,5.676713813157764,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,20.238095238095237,-54.25876783273844,0.0,19.26142615130952,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Naive,19.047619047619047,-121.14093690133059,0.0,0.48930624529661015,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.761904761904762,-134.5081539985221,0.0,0.5398865223507463,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,94.04761904761905,56.38130532139749,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,87.64880952380955,54.02589153177224,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,81.69642857142856,53.090548134983905,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,80.50595238095238,52.71089296427414,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,70.83333333333333,50.17769224138213,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.52380952380951,45.24211890278741,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,59.375,46.75728702656884,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.22619047619049,46.36871724725341,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,35.56547619047619,23.569195904321717,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 +Stat. Ensemble,32.291666666666664,12.2011691174994,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 +AutoTheta,24.404761904761905,-8.679221660647052,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,23.958333333333336,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,23.363095238095237,-57.991658816184334,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 +Naive,14.583333333333332,-93.34435518152173,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.9761904761904767,-103.16658797824996,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index a4c00bce4bddc5e7f3fb0085be4c829201d480ae..45ecd74cd9247bc17cf338f50dd57e231f8282da 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,95.83333333333333,44.92067649284822,0.0,1.373316168392857,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,78.27380952380952,37.3275632707379,0.0,64.03550444473557,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,72.32142857142857,36.34574997830586,0.0,11.690689039259063,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -TiRex,71.13095238095238,35.78158638676992,0.0,0.5667000547235674,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,69.04761904761905,35.93844209729697,0.0,2.623775925297619,0.5,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.90476190476192,32.00915629989635,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.9047619047619,31.34345417887825,0.0,0.5371254556785986,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,56.25,31.891368823369724,0.0,7.999364937594171,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -AutoTheta,31.54761904761905,15.363538705435909,0.0,5.676713813157764,0.0,0.0 -Naive,31.547619047619037,-1.9234917457632061,0.0,0.48930624529661015,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,30.654761904761905,4.431753382180004,0.0,269.4231966164286,0.0,58.333333333333336 -AutoETS,26.785714285714285,-12.209473417753781,0.0,19.26142615130952,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Seasonal Naive,25.000000000000007,0.0,0.0,0.5228482035820895,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,22.91666666666667,-1.0842869400838229,0.0,20.245989468571427,0.0,58.333333333333336 -Drift,14.880952380952381,-15.502813082648291,0.0,0.5398865223507463,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.26190476190477,43.79122175187925,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,88.24404761904762,40.846554891357655,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.7202380952381,39.02958949514069,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,75.14880952380952,38.49953271528147,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.1547619047619,37.402148758086064,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.20238095238094,34.649030144920836,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.82142857142857,32.82212435964361,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,58.1845238095238,34.275371714631554,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,31.39880952380953,9.182669245800245,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 +AutoTheta,29.166666666666664,14.492192307942386,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,28.720238095238088,9.221427219349588,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 +Naive,25.0,0.53431759331386,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,24.25595238095238,0.5636979140183129,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 +Seasonal Naive,18.60119047619047,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.119047619047619,-9.202826200764115,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 8af71de96d4d4b897c25c9c999d3feebcf65d757..27a2e37064db93777a11bb517c79b21990d5f1a3 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,98.2142857142857,56.02794944392979,0.0,1.373316168392857,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,78.86904761904762,47.95429014000393,0.0,0.5667000547235674,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -Toto-1.0,78.27380952380952,49.15904915012804,0.0,64.03550444473557,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.2738095238095,48.80356356883732,0.0,11.690689039259063,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,72.02380952380952,46.50527956553564,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,71.42857142857142,47.03745973118688,0.0,2.623775925297619,0.5,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.90476190476192,42.640999043193695,0.0,0.5371254556785986,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.63095238095239,42.42653655833058,0.0,7.999364937594171,0.08333333333333333,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,30.654761904761905,-0.048634842276285006,0.0,269.4231966164286,0.0,58.333333333333336 -AutoARIMA,29.464285714285715,-0.24259511726671956,0.0,20.245989468571427,0.0,58.333333333333336 -AutoTheta,26.190476190476193,-21.85393883837554,0.0,5.676713813157764,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,26.190476190476193,0.0,0.0,0.5228482035820895,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,16.071428571428577,-50.7732928006019,0.0,19.26142615130952,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Naive,16.071428571428566,-70.6786376339137,0.0,0.48930624529661015,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.738095238095237,-80.95007097701074,0.0,0.5398865223507463,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,94.04761904761905,60.60556778506621,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,88.24404761904762,58.16751894020451,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,81.99404761904762,56.94649552407227,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,79.61309523809524,56.5455202719779,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,70.83333333333333,55.07707058833018,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.47619047619045,52.15616003488769,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.52380952380951,50.66033388093718,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,58.1845238095238,51.22975427213352,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +AutoARIMA,34.67261904761905,24.140201566101073,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 +Stat. Ensemble,30.80357142857143,12.751170671675593,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 +AutoTheta,25.297619047619047,-2.5446445013498797,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,22.767857142857146,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,20.982142857142858,-58.590060894645916,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 +Naive,13.095238095238097,-70.46841679118427,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.464285714285714,-79.14417548576023,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv index ae2c222f297f77ccd839898b15cba86100c84c58..05a33a9280fc9dc08e82491038a29457cba835d3 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.047,0.151 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.037,0.13 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.109,0.052,0.17 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.118,0.057,0.18 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.104,0.241 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.21 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.1,0.276 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.272,0.431 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.25,0.438 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.255,0.406 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.282,0.445 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.321,0.64 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.606,0.41,0.766 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.637,0.461,0.784 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.104,-0.178,-0.049 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.035,0.0,0.072 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.053,0.021,0.086 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.033,0.106 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.088,0.052,0.13 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.138,0.089,0.187 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.123,0.078,0.166 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.147,0.093,0.203 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.266,0.382 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.275,0.395 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.258,0.392 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.316,0.527 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.309,0.438 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.509,0.388,0.627 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.429,0.651 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.036,-0.078,-0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.011,-0.086,0.054 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.625,0.333,0.875,0.015,-0.038,0.058 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.542,0.25,0.793,0.026,-0.041,0.078 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.458,0.917,0.084,-0.004,0.161 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.792,0.542,1.0,0.063,-0.049,0.141 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.093,-0.028,0.221 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.282,0.193,0.379 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.275,0.17,0.377 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.191,0.326 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.212,0.387 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.266,0.593 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.356,0.74 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.407,0.761 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.092,-0.15,-0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.011,-0.057,0.079 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.018,-0.021,0.056 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.033,0.003,0.058 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.055,0.016,0.09 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.106,0.053,0.155 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.091,0.038,0.138 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.117,0.049,0.183 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.247,0.357 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.249,0.373 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.302,0.232,0.374 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.302,0.504 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.283,0.416 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.37,0.615 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.526,0.416,0.638 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.056,-0.094,-0.021 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.396,0.208,0.583,-0.019,-0.059,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.458,0.208,0.75,0.026,-0.038,0.095 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.374,0.875,0.036,-0.042,0.111 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.458,0.958,0.094,0.007,0.181 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.708,0.458,0.917,0.073,-0.008,0.15 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.006,0.235 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.29,0.203,0.38 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.188,0.383 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.266,0.189,0.343 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.217,0.388 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.447,0.277,0.601 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.353,0.752 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.603,0.407,0.77 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.122,-0.205,-0.055 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.667,-0.016,-0.061,0.036 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.542,0.25,0.792,-0.027,-0.105,0.036 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.562,0.354,0.751,0.015,-0.02,0.051 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.037,-0.005,0.079 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.09,0.038,0.144 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.074,0.031,0.119 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.1,0.03,0.172 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.287,0.234,0.342 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.296,0.239,0.359 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.226,0.357 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.291,0.496 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.331,0.27,0.404 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.36,0.607 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.402,0.633 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.119,-0.034 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.034,-0.062,-0.003 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.438,0.249,0.646,-0.015,-0.053,0.019 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.542,0.25,0.792,0.011,-0.023,0.046 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.458,0.958,0.07,0.007,0.14 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.792,0.542,1.0,0.048,-0.08,0.13 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.079,-0.045,0.205 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.179,0.362 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.173,0.355 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.172,0.318 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.202,0.373 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.244,0.594 -TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.558,0.339,0.738 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.395,0.761 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.22,-0.06 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.458,0.207,0.75,-0.027,-0.085,0.039 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.626,-0.038,-0.125,0.04 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.458,0.208,0.75,-0.011,-0.048,0.023 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.688,0.5,0.855,0.023,0.001,0.046 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.076,0.031,0.122 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.688,0.958,0.06,0.002,0.106 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.087,0.02,0.153 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.223,0.332 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.228,0.349 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.214,0.343 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.268,0.493 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.261,0.394 +TiRex,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.474,0.348,0.6 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.394,0.626 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.096,-0.149,-0.055 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.058,-0.099,-0.016 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.039,-0.085,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.312,0.145,0.5,-0.024,-0.048,-0.001 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.06,0.004,0.121 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.792,0.582,1.0,0.038,-0.086,0.125 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.069,-0.05,0.185 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.263,0.156,0.365 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.16,0.357 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.238,0.14,0.33 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.278,0.176,0.379 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.426,0.219,0.598 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.554,0.331,0.729 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.388,0.753 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.206,-0.317,-0.116 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.292,0.083,0.542,-0.092,-0.192,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.042,0.542,-0.104,-0.221,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.292,0.042,0.542,-0.075,-0.162,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.064,-0.138,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.499,0.833,0.054,0.016,0.096 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.812,0.667,0.958,0.038,-0.019,0.084 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.065,-0.001,0.127 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.259,0.2,0.32 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.269,0.205,0.338 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.198,0.332 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.365,0.247,0.489 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.305,0.241,0.381 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.461,0.333,0.588 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.498,0.381,0.614 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.16,-0.229,-0.098 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.119,-0.184,-0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.098,-0.168,-0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.082,-0.138,-0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.501,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.542,0.25,0.792,-0.024,-0.145,0.062 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.01,-0.101,0.105 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.216,0.1,0.312 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.208,0.133,0.286 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.19,0.065,0.299 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.232,0.118,0.326 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.39,0.139,0.582 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.525,0.307,0.706 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.37,0.724 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.178,-0.265,-0.098 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.208,0.0,0.458,-0.067,-0.164,0.047 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.083,0.542,-0.079,-0.176,0.008 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.208,0.0,0.458,-0.05,-0.149,0.074 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.0,0.418,-0.039,-0.143,0.079 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.208,0.75,0.023,-0.067,0.127 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.521,0.312,0.708,-0.017,-0.085,0.037 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.708,0.011,-0.063,0.077 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.217,0.151,0.273 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.227,0.166,0.284 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.171,0.269 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.328,0.209,0.46 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.265,0.197,0.334 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.43,0.306,0.55 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.355,0.58 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.14,-0.199,-0.085 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.1,-0.161,-0.039 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.08,-0.134,-0.032 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.146,0.042,0.312,-0.064,-0.119,-0.002 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.188,0.042,0.333,-0.039,-0.092,0.019 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.479,0.292,0.688,0.017,-0.038,0.078 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.033,-0.078,0.141 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.234,0.114,0.336 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.226,0.122,0.329 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.209,0.091,0.317 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.25,0.13,0.351 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.404,0.212,0.564 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.536,0.344,0.707 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.393,0.731 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.218,-0.381,-0.111 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.103,-0.283,0.027 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.115,-0.307,0.006 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.086,-0.258,0.043 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.074,-0.227,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.01,-0.118,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.034,-0.164,0.072 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.028,-0.047,0.089 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.23,0.167,0.289 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.24,0.173,0.307 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.232,0.165,0.299 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.34,0.233,0.45 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.277,0.209,0.353 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.322,0.564 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.371,0.591 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.173,-0.255,-0.103 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.132,-0.224,-0.051 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.111,-0.208,-0.031 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.095,-0.18,-0.02 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.07,-0.145,0.001 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.292,0.667,-0.012,-0.083,0.059 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.029,-0.098,0.045 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.026,0.349 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.2,0.063,0.339 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.182,0.0,0.301 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.224,0.045,0.363 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.384,0.11,0.583 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.31,0.683 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.557,0.366,0.708 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.758,-0.373 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.393,-0.609,-0.239 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.408,-0.614,-0.254 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.371,-0.566,-0.217 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.357,-0.576,-0.185 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.276,-0.453,-0.111 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.306,-0.507,-0.129 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.263,-0.537,-0.027 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.208,0.105,0.301 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.218,0.116,0.313 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.21,0.115,0.302 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.32,0.18,0.47 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.256,0.158,0.358 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.875,0.749,1.0,0.424,0.293,0.545 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.463,0.342,0.574 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.48,-0.619,-0.362 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.555,-0.328 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.402,-0.52,-0.305 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.496,-0.287 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.35,-0.471,-0.249 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.277,-0.376,-0.177 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.299,-0.406,-0.201 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.262,-0.432,-0.118 +AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.562,0.417,0.729,0.013,-0.018,0.052 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.003,-0.071,0.077 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.688,0.5,0.875,0.142,-0.001,0.282 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.062,-0.022,0.144 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.273,0.105,0.457 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.322,0.167,0.494 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.499,-0.653,-0.379 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.595,-0.332 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.42,-0.56,-0.314 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.536,-0.295 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.367,-0.51,-0.258 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.293,-0.396,-0.199 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.315,-0.443,-0.209 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.278,-0.456,-0.131 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.438,0.271,0.583,-0.013,-0.055,0.017 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.01,-0.13,0.099 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.542,0.375,0.708,-0.033,-0.189,0.073 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.458,0.792,0.02,-0.006,0.054 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.221,-0.067,0.439 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.395,0.094,0.66 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.441,0.171,0.687 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.779,-0.334 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.379,-0.605,-0.206 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.394,-0.621,-0.232 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.551,-0.21 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.556,-0.19 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.263,-0.401,-0.153 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.293,-0.489,-0.139 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.251,-0.513,-0.067 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.01,-0.109,0.115 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.01,-0.076,0.058 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.131,-0.017,0.283 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.05,-0.037,0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.263,0.087,0.448 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.314,0.149,0.483 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.645,-0.347 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.433,-0.597,-0.302 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.556,-0.292 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.386,-0.523,-0.272 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.496,-0.247 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.368,-0.206 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.303,-0.427,-0.198 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.266,-0.433,-0.13 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.003,-0.083,0.067 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.01,-0.061,0.071 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.231,0.133 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.03,-0.091,0.138 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.229,-0.101,0.473 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.4,0.134,0.635 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.447,0.213,0.664 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.489,-0.684,-0.343 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.484,-0.237 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.363,-0.522,-0.234 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.465,-0.207 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.313,-0.492,-0.163 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.234,-0.426,-0.069 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.263,-0.465,-0.1 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.222,-0.43,-0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.458,0.292,0.625,0.032,-0.078,0.159 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.023,-0.154,0.188 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.542,0.375,0.708,0.052,-0.036,0.162 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.247,0.022,0.442 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.414,0.091,0.674 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.459,0.171,0.702 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.802,-0.394 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.632,-0.269 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.438,-0.634,-0.277 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.594,-0.253 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.385,-0.61,-0.214 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.302,-0.485,-0.134 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.333,-0.542,-0.15 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.289,-0.57,-0.047 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.208,0.542,-0.021,-0.057,0.006 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.031,-0.16,0.083 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.458,0.292,0.625,-0.055,-0.193,0.035 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.542,0.25,0.792,0.205,-0.081,0.424 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.382,0.072,0.653 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.429,0.149,0.683 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.976,-1.779,-0.472 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.458,-0.363 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.809,-1.505,-0.384 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.46,-0.322 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.743,-1.49,-0.28 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.638,-1.393,-0.162 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.677,-1.293,-0.27 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.622,-1.396,-0.123 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.285,-0.782,0.063 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.297,-0.898,0.092 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.327,-0.791,-0.023 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.458,0.208,0.75,-0.258,-0.735,0.075 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.14,-0.017,0.299 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.059,-0.044,0.146 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.27,0.117,0.437 +AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.178,0.469 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.116,-0.462 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-1.015,-0.432 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.635,-0.983,-0.41 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.611,-0.972,-0.366 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.574,-0.958,-0.328 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.489,-0.851,-0.264 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.514,-0.819,-0.304 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.471,-0.887,-0.22 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.125,0.5,-0.166,-0.394,0.001 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.312,0.146,0.5,-0.151,-0.395,0.017 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.162,-0.427,0.017 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.222,-0.247,0.593 -AutoETS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.282,-0.149,0.623 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.541,-3.271,-0.694 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-2.853,-0.553 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.326,-3.033,-0.547 -Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.265,-2.812,-0.513 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.241,-2.687,-0.496 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.107,-2.399,-0.444 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.156,-2.417,-0.524 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.086,-2.158,-0.45 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.652,-1.944,-0.104 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.668,-1.741,-0.155 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.707,-2.072,-0.1 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.618,-1.881,-0.078 -Naive,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.286,-1.46,0.198 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.094,-0.311,0.064 +AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.333,0.708,0.152,-0.065,0.379 +AutoETS,Drift,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.21,0.008,0.422 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.577,-0.781,-0.448 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.522,-0.712,-0.396 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.494,-0.677,-0.37 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.473,-0.65,-0.354 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.439,-0.616,-0.317 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.36,-0.502,-0.245 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.384,-0.547,-0.264 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.345,-0.557,-0.187 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.066,-0.169,0.022 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.052,-0.144,0.036 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.062,-0.171,0.042 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.086,-0.068,0.237 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.225,0.015,0.419 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.278,0.081,0.454 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.035,-1.682,-0.634 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.964,-1.6,-0.586 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.928,-1.544,-0.562 +Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.9,-1.501,-0.535 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.856,-1.426,-0.499 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.755,-1.223,-0.441 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.786,-1.296,-0.474 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.251,-0.735,-1.2,-0.415 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.375,-0.842,-0.118 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.357,-0.81,-0.095 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.371,-0.776,-0.132 +Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.292,0.667,-0.179,-0.609,0.061 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.29,-0.721,-0.015 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.077,0.046,0.109 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.753,-3.628,-0.856 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.492,-3.178,-0.686 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.52,-3.353,-0.686 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.454,-3.178,-0.652 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.428,-3.041,-0.633 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.282,-2.617,-0.586 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.336,-2.713,-0.648 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.26,-2.421,-0.577 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.789,-2.196,-0.207 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.807,-1.972,-0.271 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.849,-2.354,-0.206 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.753,-2.155,-0.175 -Drift,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.393,-1.65,0.13 -Drift,Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.083,-0.122,-0.048 +Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.068,0.046,0.091 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.861,-0.752 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.108,-1.762,-0.712 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.069,-1.724,-0.671 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.039,-1.672,-0.651 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.992,-1.592,-0.615 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.884,-1.38,-0.549 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.917,-1.444,-0.589 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.862,-1.347,-0.52 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.476,-0.974,-0.201 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.457,-0.935,-0.175 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.884,-0.217 +Drift,AutoETS,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.266,-0.731,-0.008 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.385,-0.831,-0.088 +Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.073,-0.101,-0.048 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv index eda53d177082eb55ff71db58032ab5ede6342343..f4c4fdee696d82af0ea5262d3c23b6aafff87475 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.122,0.057,0.194 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.113,0.056,0.176 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.102,0.048,0.151 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.169,0.095,0.246 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.11,0.206 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.213,0.147,0.273 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.223,0.156,0.296 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.384,0.539 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.388,0.506 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.372,0.475 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.447,0.728 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.51,0.727 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.741,0.587,0.846 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.612,0.854 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.139,-0.241,-0.06 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.667,-0.01,-0.055,0.042 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.333,0.834,-0.023,-0.112,0.043 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.708,0.458,0.917,0.053,0.007,0.105 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.039,-0.069,0.132 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.667,1.0,0.103,-0.032,0.193 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.667,1.0,0.115,0.056,0.18 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.286,0.472 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.304,0.432 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.303,0.393 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.368,0.685 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.425,0.696 -TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.705,0.518,0.828 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.722,0.547,0.836 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.213,-0.06 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.625,0.333,0.875,0.01,-0.044,0.052 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.051,0.013,0.092 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.07,0.031,0.113 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.078,0.039,0.126 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.125,0.077,0.179 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.203,0.145,0.271 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.181,0.138,0.225 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.137,0.239 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.371,0.493 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.435,0.572 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.511,0.679 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.457,0.67 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.691,0.54,0.811 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.699,0.836 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.712,0.844 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.054,-0.102,-0.013 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.458,0.208,0.708,-0.012,-0.094,0.055 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.374,0.875,0.062,-0.007,0.125 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.048,-0.049,0.136 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.667,1.0,0.112,-0.006,0.192 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.542,0.958,0.124,0.042,0.197 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.288,0.484 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.307,0.446 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.304,0.403 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.548,0.367,0.695 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.581,0.444,0.689 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.708,0.52,0.829 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.724,0.552,0.838 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.114,-0.178,-0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.375,0.166,0.667,0.022,-0.045,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.542,0.292,0.792,0.012,-0.059,0.086 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.02,-0.023,0.06 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.028,-0.002,0.052 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.077,0.038,0.115 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.16,0.086,0.237 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.137,0.085,0.181 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.143,0.095,0.189 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.341,0.461 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.402,0.552 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.577,0.482,0.664 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.54,0.422,0.655 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.673,0.513,0.803 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.762,0.679,0.83 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.695,0.838 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.075,-0.127,-0.032 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.02,-0.064,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.374,0.875,0.074,-0.018,0.169 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.019,0.151 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.667,1.0,0.123,0.046,0.192 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.458,0.958,0.134,0.045,0.226 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.313,0.487 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.322,0.449 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.315,0.412 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.385,0.7 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.586,0.464,0.697 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.711,0.536,0.836 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.728,0.566,0.845 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.203,-0.327,-0.105 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.292,0.083,0.542,-0.056,-0.118,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.626,-0.067,-0.143,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.626,-0.08,-0.203,0.018 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.008,-0.031,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.058,0.01,0.11 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.143,0.071,0.211 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.119,0.082,0.158 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.125,0.072,0.178 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.336,0.442 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.393,0.535 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.475,0.655 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.422,0.639 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.668,0.502,0.797 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.674,0.826 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.69,0.834 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.084,-0.144,-0.04 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.029,-0.055,0.002 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.008,-0.052,0.03 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.051,0.022,0.082 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.136,0.061,0.211 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.112,0.051,0.16 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.158 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.329,0.441 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.39,0.534 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.471,0.649 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.41,0.643 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.499,0.798 +TiRex,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.755,0.673,0.823 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.687,0.832 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.142,-0.219,-0.084 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.084,-0.13,-0.039 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.062,-0.123,-0.01 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.054,-0.09,-0.023 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.015,-0.128,0.074 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.708,0.458,0.917,0.053,-0.098,0.162 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.065,0.015,0.123 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.342,0.238,0.446 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.256,0.411 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.311,0.233,0.38 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.518,0.335,0.662 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.553,0.38,0.688 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.688,0.496,0.811 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.706,0.531,0.821 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.185,-0.259,-0.124 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.04,-0.152,0.064 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.051,-0.158,0.047 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.177,0.018 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.015,-0.08,0.114 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.582,0.917,0.09,0.014,0.159 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.064,-0.006,0.122 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.667,0.917,0.071,0.037,0.111 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.293,0.408 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.433,0.355,0.507 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.542,0.448,0.629 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.382,0.622 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.65,0.47,0.791 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.742,0.66,0.811 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.755,0.677,0.82 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.255,-0.372,-0.169 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.191,-0.311,-0.094 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.167,-0.267,-0.077 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.158,-0.267,-0.065 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.083,0.418,-0.099,-0.189,-0.014 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.067,-0.025,0.15 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.079,0.008,0.168 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.352,0.252,0.466 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.343,0.255,0.43 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.321,0.244,0.391 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.362,0.668 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.56,0.395,0.687 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.693,0.518,0.81 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.71,0.549,0.821 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.27,-0.376,-0.172 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.333,-0.115,-0.239,0.031 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.333,-0.126,-0.238,0.006 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.333,-0.14,-0.237,-0.048 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.292,0.083,0.542,-0.056,-0.194,0.089 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.072,-0.176,0.024 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.028,-0.117,0.049 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.021,-0.107,0.061 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.284,0.206,0.357 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.376,0.292,0.462 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.496,0.395,0.59 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.452,0.326,0.577 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.619,0.419,0.775 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.63,0.787 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.648,0.798 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.221,-0.29,-0.159 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.158,-0.221,-0.093 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.135,-0.187,-0.09 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.126,-0.191,-0.053 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.069,-0.139,0.006 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.028,-0.051,0.105 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.542,0.292,0.833,0.013,-0.111,0.142 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.208,0.414 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.216,0.378 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.198,0.355 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.491,0.309,0.643 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.399,0.644 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.671,0.498,0.8 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.69,0.53,0.812 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.287,-0.42,-0.185 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.333,-0.13,-0.219,-0.059 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.208,0.042,0.458,-0.141,-0.245,-0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.042,0.542,-0.155,-0.293,-0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.07,-0.141,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.086,-0.202,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.458,0.167,0.708,-0.013,-0.166,0.1 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.007,-0.059,0.076 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.246,0.365 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.317,0.47 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.51,0.41,0.6 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.468,0.341,0.593 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.447,0.776 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.639,0.796 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.738,0.654,0.807 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.314,-0.158 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.167,-0.232,-0.105 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.143,-0.217,-0.078 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.134,-0.188,-0.083 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.083,0.333,-0.076,-0.125,-0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.021,-0.065,0.096 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.007,-0.083,0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.296,0.197,0.388 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.287,0.207,0.355 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.263,0.186,0.331 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.484,0.305,0.635 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.522,0.329,0.666 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.667,0.474,0.794 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.686,0.51,0.805 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.828,-1.169,-0.623 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-0.894,-0.401 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.937,-0.404 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.641,-0.95,-0.455 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.52,-0.805,-0.313 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.542,-0.873,-0.337 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.439,-0.705,-0.263 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.421,-0.633,-0.245 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.458,0.292,0.625,-0.014,-0.086,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.542,0.375,0.708,-0.048,-0.226,0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.267,0.02,0.51 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.792,0.583,1.0,0.321,0.04,0.525 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.526,0.283,0.718 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.332,0.734 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.804,-1.025,-0.633 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.759,-0.437 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.599,-0.806,-0.444 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.619,-0.816,-0.475 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.499,-0.698,-0.345 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.522,-0.755,-0.342 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.607,-0.275 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.402,-0.55,-0.262 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.542,0.375,0.708,0.013,-0.045,0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.298,0.239,0.36 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.389,0.311,0.462 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.507,0.407,0.593 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.464,0.336,0.589 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.624,0.431,0.78 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.723,0.636,0.795 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.736,0.653,0.805 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-0.971,-0.589 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.662,-0.856,-0.517 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.629,-0.792,-0.507 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.616,-0.788,-0.49 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.69,-0.414 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.396,-0.556,-0.26 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.575,-0.326 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.425,-0.563,-0.314 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.542,0.375,0.708,-0.034,-0.138,0.046 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.277,0.013,0.515 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.708,0.458,0.917,0.33,0.093,0.514 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.533,0.281,0.721 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.559,0.328,0.738 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-0.906,-0.593 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.647,-0.434 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.547,-0.676,-0.437 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.702,-0.46 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.451,-0.612,-0.305 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.472,-0.641,-0.322 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.551,-0.247 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.356,-0.494,-0.229 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.458,0.292,0.625,0.046,-0.081,0.184 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.458,0.292,0.625,0.033,-0.048,0.122 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.301,0.017,0.527 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.352,0.13,0.522 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.548,0.264,0.738 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.574,0.308,0.755 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.496,-2.682,-0.807 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.191,-2.175,-0.582 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.213,-2.282,-0.58 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.24,-2.336,-0.626 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.075,-1.962,-0.503 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.106,-2.013,-0.567 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.965,-1.804,-0.446 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.939,-1.742,-0.44 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.083,0.5,-0.365,-1.039,-0.02 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.384,-1.063,-0.014 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.43,-1.114,-0.017 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.129,0.055,0.205 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.297,0.16,0.424 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.236,0.077,0.386 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.49,0.22,0.713 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.605,0.485,0.708 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.624,0.512,0.723 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.336,-0.769 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.91,-1.233,-0.673 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.153,-0.646 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.857,-1.146,-0.639 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.762,-1.028,-0.55 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.603,-0.858,-0.412 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.887,-0.465 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.637,-0.86,-0.452 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.149,-0.259,-0.058 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.192,0.06,0.335 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.604,0.458,0.771,0.122,-0.066,0.298 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.439,0.12,0.689 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.546,0.41,0.66 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.442,0.676 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.492,-2.115,-1.044 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.364,-1.976,-0.929 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.317,-1.896,-0.904 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.298,-1.852,-0.889 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.181,-1.693,-0.812 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.985,-1.437,-0.652 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.041,-1.499,-0.695 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.026,-1.454,-0.688 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.422,-0.736,-0.191 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.238,-0.503,-0.064 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.073,-0.64,0.461 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.353,0.136,0.514 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.39,0.185,0.54 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.692,-2.66,-1.042 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.363,-2.292,-0.738 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.387,-2.216,-0.798 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.416,-2.303,-0.866 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.238,-2.203,-0.612 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.271,-2.192,-0.653 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.119,-1.806,-0.664 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-1.092,-1.991,-0.489 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.0,0.417,-0.472,-1.103,-0.042 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.292,0.083,0.542,-0.492,-1.059,-0.103 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.543,-1.09,-0.149 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.078,-0.856,0.39 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.087,-0.425,0.187 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.316,-0.143,0.641 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.438,0.307,0.552 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.465,0.339,0.573 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.293,-2.033,-0.842 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.175,-1.896,-0.731 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.132,-1.771,-0.729 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.115,-1.799,-0.695 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.007,-1.647,-0.618 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.826,-1.363,-0.485 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.878,-1.458,-0.518 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.865,-1.431,-0.507 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.308,-0.63,-0.084 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.396,0.229,0.542,-0.139,-0.424,0.062 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.08,-0.23,0.298 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.367,-0.065,0.652 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.604,0.875,0.483,0.284,0.63 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.508,0.311,0.652 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.236,-4.298,-1.173 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.063,-4.072,-1.052 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.013,-3.932,-1.009 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.989,-3.958,-0.997 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.854,-3.795,-0.887 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-1.626,-3.45,-0.721 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.685,-3.458,-0.809 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.658,-3.552,-0.759 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.962,-2.481,-0.281 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.782,-2.221,-0.137 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.461,-1.784,0.125 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.58,-1.874,0.061 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.302,-0.212,0.644 -AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.342,-0.146,0.661 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.859,-5.499,-1.419 -Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-2.387,-4.807,-1.073 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.421,-4.853,-1.084 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.463,-5.105,-1.154 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-2.208,-4.296,-0.983 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.255,-4.259,-1.073 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.037,-4.008,-0.991 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.999,-3.859,-0.901 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-1.111,-2.552,-0.396 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-1.139,-2.581,-0.391 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.0,0.5,-1.211,-2.823,-0.358 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.546,-1.057,-0.157 -Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.434,-1.806,0.175 +AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.148,-0.751,0.525 +AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.186,-0.679,0.554 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.433,-5.103,-2.32 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.206,-4.867,-2.12 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.122,-4.734,-2.067 +Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-3.089,-4.662,-2.056 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-2.881,-4.277,-1.937 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.531,-3.704,-1.702 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.631,-3.909,-1.771 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-2.605,-3.867,-1.745 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.53,-2.43,-0.943 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.202,-1.944,-0.696 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.779,-1.234,-0.443 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.125,0.396,-0.933,-1.702,-0.396 +Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.174,-1.107,0.429 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.057,0.034,0.082 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.092,-5.827,-1.577 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.592,-5.1,-1.209 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.628,-5.184,-1.233 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.673,-5.451,-1.302 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.402,-4.589,-1.132 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.452,-4.601,-1.216 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.221,-4.325,-1.126 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.18,-4.118,-1.04 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.238,-2.757,-0.497 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.269,-2.814,-0.488 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.345,-3.075,-0.445 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.64,-1.176,-0.226 -Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.52,-1.948,0.128 -Drift,Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.06,-0.089,-0.035 +Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.048,0.034,0.064 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.658,-5.424,-2.472 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.419,-5.171,-2.279 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.331,-5.04,-2.224 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.296,-4.958,-2.2 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.078,-4.557,-2.092 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.71,-3.948,-1.839 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.816,-4.184,-1.894 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.788,-4.116,-1.88 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.658,-2.609,-1.05 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.314,-2.087,-0.791 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.869,-1.342,-0.513 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.032,-1.871,-0.452 +Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.229,-1.244,0.404 +Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.051,-0.068,-0.035 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 32e12140c393cf48ba87e1cd2393662873458972..d8ac1656651264c5812fe91e3e6eee5f7f6aa1e6 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.121,0.022,0.258 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.135,0.055,0.228 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.044,0.281 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.14,0.033,0.274 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.073,0.309 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.085,0.335 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.136,0.245 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.242,0.46 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.46,0.335,0.571 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.332,0.521 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.509,0.337,0.67 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.449,0.325,0.571 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.357,0.551 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.422,0.62 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.138,-0.348,-0.023 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.458,0.25,0.625,0.05,-0.007,0.129 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.078,0.031,0.134 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.032,0.169 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.102,0.045,0.179 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.21 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.093,0.245 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.101,0.189 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.313,0.444 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.27,0.421 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.31,0.444 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.435,0.349,0.527 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.327,0.548 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.356,0.517 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.412,0.562 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.542,0.375,0.75,-0.052,-0.147,0.007 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.333,0.875,0.015,-0.086,0.097 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.458,0.208,0.708,0.024,-0.038,0.081 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.022,-0.047,0.086 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.078,-0.065,0.217 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.333,0.875,0.087,-0.001,0.177 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.792,0.542,1.0,0.08,-0.076,0.188 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.26,0.185,0.332 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.385,0.253,0.508 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.233,0.462 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.255,0.627 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.263,0.484 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.267,0.488 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.356,0.556 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.156,-0.295,-0.058 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.667,-0.016,-0.107,0.079 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.729,0.542,0.875,0.03,-0.017,0.075 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.038,0.005,0.07 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.055,0.014,0.094 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.024,0.166 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.119,0.063,0.179 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.1,0.031,0.158 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.28,0.421 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.241,0.381 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.282,0.415 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.405,0.322,0.502 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.296,0.525 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.333,0.489 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.458,0.388,0.541 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.085,-0.155,-0.032 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.125,0.458,-0.031,-0.081,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.375,0.125,0.667,0.009,-0.072,0.102 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.374,0.875,0.006,-0.096,0.1 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.064,-0.052,0.187 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.458,0.958,0.073,-0.015,0.161 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.708,0.458,0.917,0.065,-0.031,0.154 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.174,0.319 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.375,0.215,0.508 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.334,0.214,0.455 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.433,0.241,0.626 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.363,0.243,0.486 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.37,0.256,0.479 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.449,0.326,0.558 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.391,-0.046 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.542,0.292,0.792,-0.025,-0.088,0.036 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.333,0.875,-0.009,-0.114,0.067 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.037,0.053 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.026,-0.032,0.075 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.067,0.002,0.132 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.092,0.041,0.148 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.812,0.625,0.958,0.072,0.025,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.329,0.257,0.399 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.229,0.356 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.328,0.263,0.389 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.387,0.296,0.48 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.387,0.275,0.513 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.39,0.31,0.47 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.442,0.365,0.521 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.203,-0.033 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.04,-0.075,-0.005 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.056,0.035 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.458,0.208,0.708,-0.002,-0.044,0.041 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.055,-0.109,0.202 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.375,0.875,0.065,-0.008,0.158 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.792,0.542,1.0,0.057,-0.118,0.166 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.176,0.312 -TiRex,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.37,0.205,0.519 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.328,0.194,0.443 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.428,0.218,0.628 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.358,0.241,0.468 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.365,0.244,0.47 -TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.444,0.315,0.556 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.163,-0.378,-0.034 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.022,-0.094,0.045 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.125,0.626,-0.006,-0.111,0.087 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.542,0.292,0.792,0.002,-0.042,0.042 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.018,-0.01,0.044 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.059,-0.026,0.14 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.085,0.033,0.141 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.688,0.958,0.064,-0.011,0.122 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.323,0.249,0.397 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.222,0.349 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.323,0.256,0.387 +TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.382,0.285,0.485 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.382,0.261,0.518 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.385,0.308,0.467 +TiRex,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.437,0.36,0.522 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.114,-0.218,-0.047 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.058,-0.104,-0.014 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.027,-0.081,0.031 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.018,-0.046,0.01 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.058,-0.108,0.21 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.067,-0.006,0.176 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.792,0.582,1.0,0.059,-0.106,0.172 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.169,0.32 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.371,0.213,0.522 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.33,0.206,0.436 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.219,0.633 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.359,0.237,0.475 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.366,0.248,0.47 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.445,0.321,0.56 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.447,-0.079 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.085,-0.277,0.061 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.068,-0.23,0.049 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.253,0.098 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.061,-0.265,0.097 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.042,-0.044,0.134 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.542,0.854,0.068,0.018,0.135 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.048,-0.026,0.109 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.311,0.238,0.386 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.268,0.205,0.337 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.31,0.242,0.375 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.371,0.278,0.472 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.245,0.51 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.374,0.293,0.452 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.427,0.351,0.51 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.163,-0.266,-0.084 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.2,-0.025 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.072,-0.152,-0.002 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.063,-0.163,0.025 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.044,-0.155,0.042 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.01,-0.14,0.125 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.002,-0.189,0.139 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.051,0.32 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.333,0.135,0.505 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.289,0.173,0.401 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.394,0.144,0.613 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.205,0.444 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.327,0.221,0.432 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.411,0.242,0.552 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.247,-0.503,-0.093 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.667,-0.095,-0.215,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.042,0.542,-0.079,-0.193,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.375,0.125,0.625,-0.069,-0.188,0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.072,-0.214,0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.01,-0.143,0.122 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.027,-0.056,0.108 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.006,-0.091,0.086 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.28,0.199,0.364 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.236,0.148,0.328 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.28,0.207,0.356 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.343,0.227,0.464 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.343,0.203,0.492 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.26,0.44 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.402,0.302,0.503 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.324,-0.102 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.136,-0.218,-0.067 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.102,-0.173,-0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.092,-0.165,-0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.292,0.146,0.458,-0.073,-0.156,-0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.028,-0.121,0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.625,0.333,0.875,-0.008,-0.188,0.124 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.189,0.099,0.273 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.326,0.146,0.495 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.282,0.135,0.413 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.388,0.139,0.607 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.313,0.187,0.439 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.321,0.197,0.441 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.406,0.264,0.542 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.237,-0.324,-0.158 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.208,0.0,0.458,-0.087,-0.232,0.07 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.083,0.542,-0.07,-0.182,0.03 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.208,0.0,0.458,-0.061,-0.199,0.106 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.0,0.418,-0.063,-0.208,0.096 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.002,-0.161,0.159 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.125,0.667,0.008,-0.141,0.158 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.022,-0.121,0.051 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.26,0.184,0.328 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.214,0.16,0.268 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.26,0.187,0.327 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.325,0.227,0.428 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.324,0.192,0.475 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.328,0.255,0.4 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.385,0.3,0.471 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.169,-0.234,-0.113 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.111,-0.188,-0.033 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.375,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.146,0.042,0.312,-0.069,-0.138,0.011 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.05,-0.122,0.026 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.006,-0.094,0.083 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.022,-0.054,0.108 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.195,0.065,0.315 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.332,0.17,0.458 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.287,0.183,0.39 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.393,0.19,0.582 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.319,0.188,0.454 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.326,0.215,0.43 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.41,0.288,0.516 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.537,-0.854,-0.32 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.498,-0.227 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.33,-0.469,-0.211 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.318,-0.453,-0.213 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.471,-0.203 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.245,-0.471,-0.054 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.233,-0.376,-0.11 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.243,-0.459,-0.069 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.276,0.209,0.352 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.231,0.155,0.314 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.276,0.209,0.338 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.339,0.25,0.433 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.339,0.22,0.463 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.343,0.265,0.426 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.398,0.327,0.477 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.616,-0.799,-0.455 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.728,-0.388 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.49,-0.665,-0.345 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.477,-0.657,-0.332 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.451,-0.628,-0.313 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.39,-0.572,-0.248 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.352,-0.488,-0.225 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.382,-0.542,-0.265 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.667,0.499,0.833,-0.062,-0.175,0.023 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.479,0.312,0.625,-0.0,-0.054,0.039 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.087,-0.041,0.202 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.688,0.5,0.875,0.087,-0.067,0.272 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.092,0.023,0.17 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.168,0.068,0.262 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.521,-0.728,-0.371 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.616,-0.318 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.553,-0.297 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.39,-0.535,-0.285 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.366,-0.509,-0.258 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.308,-0.488,-0.174 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.273,-0.366,-0.191 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.301,-0.458,-0.184 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.167,0.501,0.058,-0.023,0.149 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.17,-0.002,0.336 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.114,-0.035,0.28 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.246,-0.012,0.488 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.154,-0.0,0.31 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.163,0.038,0.307 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.267,0.129,0.396 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.85,-1.331,-0.503 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.626,-1.034,-0.34 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.601,-1.034,-0.274 -Naive,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.587,-1.077,-0.258 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.591,-1.091,-0.27 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.499,-1.018,-0.157 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.485,-0.978,-0.171 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.496,-0.846,-0.204 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.204,-0.505,0.002 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.058,-0.042,0.153 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.14,0.042,0.242 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.14,-0.001,0.316 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.145,0.062,0.228 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.217,0.141,0.309 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.798,-0.45 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.71,-0.394 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.489,-0.637,-0.356 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.476,-0.632,-0.343 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.45,-0.6,-0.319 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.389,-0.554,-0.261 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.351,-0.486,-0.23 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.381,-0.51,-0.264 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.521,0.375,0.688,0.0,-0.041,0.051 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.062,-0.18,0.04 +AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.087,-0.045,0.211 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.087,-0.076,0.266 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.092,0.015,0.176 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.169,0.065,0.265 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.77,-1.113,-0.537 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.681,-1.01,-0.475 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.631,-0.924,-0.421 +Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.617,-0.941,-0.398 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.589,-0.896,-0.386 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.522,-0.864,-0.294 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.481,-0.749,-0.294 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.513,-0.764,-0.333 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.095,-0.254,0.039 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.163,-0.32,-0.044 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.096,-0.267,0.043 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.066,-0.34,0.169 -Naive,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.092,-0.107,0.274 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.019,-0.318,0.219 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.269,0.204 -Naive,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.118,0.05,0.19 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.735,-1.089,-0.497 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.859,-0.304 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.501,-0.835,-0.273 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.488,-0.795,-0.24 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.492,-0.774,-0.26 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.406,-0.669,-0.21 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.392,-0.705,-0.156 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.403,-0.64,-0.224 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.129,-0.389,0.034 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.062,-0.203,0.254 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.542,0.25,0.792,0.148,-0.178,0.431 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.542,0.375,0.708,0.044,-0.064,0.161 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.708,0.583,0.833,0.055,0.015,0.101 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.173,-0.004,0.32 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.037,-2.031,-0.508 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.79,-1.681,-0.342 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.763,-1.671,-0.317 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.747,-1.689,-0.279 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-1.726,-0.281 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.65,-1.585,-0.168 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.634,-1.542,-0.161 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.648,-1.394,-0.235 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.326,-0.953,0.012 -AutoETS,Naive,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.101,-0.377,0.096 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.458,0.208,0.75,-0.174,-0.758,0.151 +Naive,AutoETS,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.0,-0.124,0.118 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.333,0.667,0.005,-0.133,0.133 +Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.089,0.051,0.129 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.213,-0.486 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.681,-1.106,-0.42 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.631,-1.051,-0.38 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.617,-1.073,-0.353 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-1.04,-0.325 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.522,-0.967,-0.255 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.48,-0.905,-0.238 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.513,-0.863,-0.282 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.312,0.125,0.5,-0.095,-0.373,0.062 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.163,-0.463,0.001 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.095,-0.362,0.07 +AutoETS,Naive,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.0,-0.133,0.11 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.122,-0.698,0.19 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.542,0.292,0.793,-0.11,-0.653,0.193 -AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.232,0.203 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.816,-1.333,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.938,-0.356 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.571,-0.945,-0.322 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.557,-0.88,-0.318 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.561,-0.906,-0.31 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.8,-0.258 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.457,-0.781,-0.23 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.468,-0.831,-0.232 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.182,-0.448,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.019,-0.28,0.241 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.458,0.292,0.625,-0.046,-0.192,0.06 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.109,-0.235,0.411 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.006,-0.257,0.171 +AutoETS,Drift,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.089,-0.045,0.19 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.072,-0.552 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.691,-0.957,-0.498 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.64,-0.885,-0.449 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.626,-0.875,-0.445 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.597,-0.825,-0.415 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.785,-0.352 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.489,-0.667,-0.342 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.521,-0.743,-0.36 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.101,-0.204,-0.023 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.169,-0.295,-0.066 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.102,-0.214,-0.015 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.333,0.667,-0.005,-0.153,0.117 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.396,0.208,0.583,-0.006,-0.206,0.205 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.542,0.375,0.708,0.011,-0.092,0.106 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.134,-0.078,0.301 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.835,-1.227,-0.555 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.953,-0.365 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.588,-0.918,-0.343 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.574,-0.886,-0.323 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.578,-0.887,-0.33 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.487,-0.761,-0.284 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.472,-0.789,-0.245 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.484,-0.754,-0.274 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.194,-0.442,-0.039 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.256,0.212 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.292,0.167,0.417,-0.058,-0.113,-0.015 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.458,0.207,0.708,0.099,-0.239,0.395 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.458,0.292,0.625,-0.011,-0.119,0.085 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.125,-0.054,0.283 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.097,-1.631,-0.731 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.843,-1.25,-0.552 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.815,-1.263,-0.483 -Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.799,-1.253,-0.46 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.803,-1.274,-0.472 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.699,-1.233,-0.318 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.682,-1.183,-0.359 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.696,-1.068,-0.404 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.365,-0.654,-0.148 -Drift,Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.133,-0.235,-0.053 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.209,-0.47,0.004 -Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.255,0.188 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.155,-0.43,0.072 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.143,-0.394,0.051 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.667,0.5,0.875,0.084,-0.026,0.185 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.943,-1.284,-0.701 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.846,-1.177,-0.635 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.791,-1.089,-0.574 +Drift,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.776,-1.091,-0.562 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.745,-1.041,-0.542 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.671,-1.012,-0.432 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.626,-0.891,-0.429 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.662,-0.913,-0.485 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.202,-0.356,-0.073 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.277,-0.446,-0.164 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.203,-0.361,-0.069 +Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.098,-0.149,-0.054 +Drift,AutoETS,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.098,-0.235,0.043 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.125,0.5,-0.092,-0.227,0.025 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 21366d848eff7874cc9abb1691f6772ff115be17..1cbae5c2d629974e639c9fae77a676073e3bda4d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.05,0.303 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.141,0.043,0.247 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.135,0.036,0.281 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.075,0.283 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.17,0.053,0.319 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.114,0.386 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.181,0.288 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.446,0.672 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.45,0.676 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.434,0.683 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.501,0.757 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.708,0.591,0.805 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.742,0.651,0.824 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.672,0.835 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.184,-0.434,-0.053 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.333,0.875,-0.017,-0.132,0.069 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.542,0.292,0.792,-0.024,-0.083,0.034 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.027,-0.157,0.173 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.708,0.458,0.917,0.017,-0.025,0.068 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.542,1.0,0.093,0.021,0.179 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.667,1.0,0.096,-0.091,0.21 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.344,0.613 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.356,0.612 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.354,0.614 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.573,0.409,0.723 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.655,0.497,0.78 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.695,0.549,0.802 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.712,0.578,0.813 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.164,-0.328,-0.045 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.375,0.125,0.667,0.016,-0.074,0.117 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.542,0.292,0.792,-0.007,-0.098,0.089 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.043,-0.071,0.159 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.708,0.458,0.917,0.033,-0.07,0.138 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.583,1.0,0.107,0.018,0.198 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.792,0.542,1.0,0.111,0.006,0.204 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.343,0.64 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.357,0.636 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.352,0.637 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.42,0.735 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.507,0.785 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.561,0.81 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.591,0.818 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.156,-0.39,-0.037 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.458,0.208,0.708,0.023,-0.035,0.077 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.458,0.208,0.708,0.007,-0.098,0.089 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.058,-0.002,0.142 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.085,0.032,0.149 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.093,0.035,0.184 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.123,0.058,0.212 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.177,0.114,0.244 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.13,0.286 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.192,0.152,0.235 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.399,0.555 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.47,0.617 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.616,0.529,0.688 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.606,0.517,0.691 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.59,0.832 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.708,0.815 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.72,0.824 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.062,-0.165,0.002 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.105,0.18 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.374,0.875,0.04,-0.028,0.098 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.542,0.958,0.114,0.033,0.194 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.875,0.667,1.0,0.117,-0.048,0.22 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.354,0.63 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.368,0.628 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.363,0.633 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.415,0.735 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.663,0.516,0.784 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.702,0.561,0.808 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.719,0.591,0.818 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.394,-0.081 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.028,-0.209,0.136 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.045,-0.188,0.066 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.052,-0.219,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.01,-0.197,0.152 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.067,-0.073,0.196 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.071,-0.095,0.197 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.333,0.606 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.466,0.331,0.608 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.338,0.612 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.388,0.717 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.476,0.774 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.687,0.541,0.801 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.704,0.575,0.809 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.204,-0.468,-0.056 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.292,0.083,0.542,-0.018,-0.074,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.083,0.542,-0.034,-0.16,0.066 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.125,0.626,-0.042,-0.109,0.027 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.01,-0.18,0.165 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.028,-0.023,0.077 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.037,0.006,0.068 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.667,0.958,0.069,0.029,0.107 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.126,0.041,0.204 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.152,0.1,0.209 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.142,0.072,0.2 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.449,0.377,0.525 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.439,0.597 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.499,0.671 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.485,0.667 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.55,0.825 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.755,0.683,0.809 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.697,0.818 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.093,-0.175,-0.033 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.029,-0.083,0.022 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.041,0.061 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.042,-0.014,0.094 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.1,0.023,0.178 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.078,0.178 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.117,0.068,0.164 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.354,0.516 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.417,0.587 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.484,0.664 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.569,0.475,0.66 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.541,0.82 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.747,0.668,0.803 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.684,0.813 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.103,-0.226,-0.036 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.039,-0.073,-0.006 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.065,0.04 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.033,0.003,0.064 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.092,-0.009,0.176 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.119,0.072,0.172 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.109,0.026,0.171 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.355,0.502 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.419,0.576 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.486,0.653 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.466,0.651 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.695,0.534,0.818 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.67,0.801 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.687,0.81 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.14,-0.27,-0.061 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.333,-0.074,-0.12,-0.03 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.043,-0.104,0.014 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.034,-0.068,-0.003 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.625,0.875,0.077,0.008,0.173 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.792,0.582,1.0,0.08,-0.115,0.204 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.325,0.615 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.472,0.343,0.609 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.329,0.613 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.399,0.721 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.488,0.776 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.69,0.544,0.797 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.707,0.574,0.809 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.628,-0.129 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.208,0.0,0.458,-0.102,-0.218,-0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.246,-0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.208,0.042,0.458,-0.128,-0.24,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.072,-0.244,0.068 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.125,0.375,-0.083,-0.21,-0.008 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.061,-0.04,0.152 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.792,0.958,0.09,0.044,0.153 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.079,-0.011,0.145 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.335,0.49 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.398,0.564 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.467,0.645 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.451,0.641 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.518,0.816 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.736,0.662,0.793 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.749,0.679,0.803 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.214,-0.323,-0.129 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.144,-0.256,-0.043 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.111,-0.216,-0.023 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.101,-0.214,0.009 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.065,-0.179,0.038 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.03,-0.074,0.124 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.625,0.458,0.833,0.019,-0.087,0.113 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.369,0.268,0.469 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.452,0.352,0.535 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.425,0.626 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.407,0.63 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.671,0.49,0.808 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.719,0.637,0.779 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.733,0.655,0.791 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.252,-0.4,-0.15 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.179,-0.264,-0.111 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.104,0.0,0.25,-0.146,-0.216,-0.084 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.135,-0.208,-0.077 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.042,0.208,-0.098,-0.181,-0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.031,-0.141,0.069 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.625,0.333,0.875,0.004,-0.204,0.148 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.427,0.266,0.585 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.428,0.277,0.585 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.28,0.588 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.343,0.704 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.43,0.766 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.664,0.497,0.785 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.683,0.529,0.797 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.405,-0.221 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.333,-0.106,-0.266,0.083 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.0,0.458,-0.125,-0.257,-0.006 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.333,-0.132,-0.282,0.046 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.076,-0.246,0.087 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.0,0.418,-0.087,-0.256,0.103 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.125,0.667,-0.004,-0.174,0.169 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.521,0.333,0.729,-0.012,-0.116,0.069 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.35,0.261,0.445 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.434,0.331,0.52 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.407,0.609 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.401,0.604 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.468,0.8 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.711,0.623,0.773 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.641,0.784 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.307,-0.18 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.166,-0.251,-0.077 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.133,-0.196,-0.073 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.122,-0.206,-0.026 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.086,-0.17,0.011 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.167,0.542,-0.019,-0.127,0.08 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.479,0.271,0.667,0.012,-0.074,0.104 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.274,0.569 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.282,0.574 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.266,0.58 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.528,0.356,0.681 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.618,0.476,0.735 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.663,0.543,0.771 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.682,0.571,0.784 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.275,-2.053,-0.806 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.922,-1.584,-0.524 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.954,-1.775,-0.523 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.968,-1.7,-0.548 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.87,-1.538,-0.499 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.889,-1.601,-0.483 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.744,-1.41,-0.362 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.738,-1.319,-0.377 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.458,0.292,0.625,0.002,-0.071,0.065 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.542,0.375,0.708,-0.0,-0.169,0.136 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.179,-0.004,0.338 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.792,0.583,1.0,0.336,0.074,0.542 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.414,0.254,0.53 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.447,0.307,0.553 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.28,-2.091,-0.817 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.926,-1.58,-0.552 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.958,-1.75,-0.556 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.972,-1.686,-0.582 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.874,-1.55,-0.495 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.893,-1.556,-0.521 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.748,-1.407,-0.382 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-1.345,-0.393 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.542,0.375,0.708,-0.002,-0.069,0.066 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.268,0.443 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.345,0.529 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.524,0.422,0.615 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.407,0.612 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.495,0.8 +Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.637,0.772 +Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.728,0.651,0.783 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.926,-1.246,-0.665 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.106,-0.604 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.064,-0.548 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-1.009,-0.55 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.689,-0.963,-0.504 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.586,-0.884,-0.365 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.538,-0.802,-0.353 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.796,-0.367 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.458,0.292,0.625,-0.002,-0.109,0.094 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.177,-0.032,0.346 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.708,0.458,0.917,0.335,0.09,0.531 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.413,0.231,0.55 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.446,0.282,0.572 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.274,-2.153,-0.766 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.921,-1.592,-0.549 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.953,-1.756,-0.542 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.967,-1.726,-0.569 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.579,-0.51 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.888,-1.587,-0.49 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.743,-1.424,-0.389 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.737,-1.382,-0.363 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.458,0.292,0.625,0.0,-0.157,0.145 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.542,0.375,0.708,0.002,-0.104,0.098 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.5,0.248,0.75,0.179,-0.079,0.37 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.337,0.082,0.529 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.414,0.175,0.577 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.447,0.231,0.598 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.771,-3.123,-1.006 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.341,-2.608,-0.691 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.38,-2.771,-0.725 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.397,-2.778,-0.708 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.278,-2.537,-0.635 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-2.586,-0.663 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.124,-2.377,-0.522 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.25,-1.116,-2.134,-0.553 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.218,-0.51,0.004 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.216,-0.529,0.031 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.25,0.752,-0.219,-0.586,0.073 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.131,0.049,0.214 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.26,0.148,0.365 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.241,0.096,0.38 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.496,0.217,0.718 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.555,0.441,0.644 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.577,0.472,0.662 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.215,-1.609,-0.886 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.086,-1.481,-0.781 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.42,-0.714 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.008,-1.359,-0.721 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.942,-1.292,-0.662 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.824,-1.152,-0.542 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.768,-1.083,-0.494 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.125,-0.527 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.15,-0.272,-0.051 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.149,0.058,0.238 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.604,0.458,0.771,0.128,-0.061,0.301 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.447,0.138,0.694 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.488,0.377,0.585 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.513,0.411,0.604 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.603,-2.208,-1.121 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.451,-2.038,-0.996 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.382,-1.975,-0.939 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.36,-1.878,-0.944 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.283,-1.816,-0.876 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-1.675,-0.74 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.078,-1.557,-0.686 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.103,-1.596,-0.73 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.352,-0.574,-0.173 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.175,-0.313,-0.061 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.192,-0.23,0.505 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.286,0.061,0.451 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.327,0.115,0.478 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.429,-4.136,-1.444 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.897,-3.537,-0.99 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.945,-3.659,-1.028 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.966,-3.62,-1.065 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.818,-3.432,-0.907 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.847,-3.47,-0.955 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.629,-3.269,-0.753 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.619,-2.778,-0.91 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.0,0.417,-0.507,-1.185,-0.08 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.292,0.083,0.542,-0.504,-1.134,-0.099 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.508,-1.125,-0.089 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.237,-1.019,0.187 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.625,0.417,0.792,-0.025,-0.272,0.203 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.361,-0.06,0.657 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.398,0.256,0.517 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.428,0.294,0.544 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.538,-2.236,-1.07 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.005,-0.94 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.323,-1.938,-0.904 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-1.867,-0.874 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.784,-0.822 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.09,-1.7,-0.688 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.526,-0.668 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.05,-1.579,-0.686 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.318,-0.612,-0.106 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.396,0.229,0.542,-0.146,-0.431,0.057 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.375,0.208,0.583,0.025,-0.254,0.214 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.369,-0.057,0.653 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.604,0.875,0.413,0.237,0.548 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.442,0.271,0.571 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.605,-4.936,-1.437 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.384,-4.698,-1.224 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.297,-4.569,-1.178 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.273,-4.506,-1.145 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.178,-4.422,-1.073 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-2.04,-4.217,-0.961 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.914,-4.006,-0.881 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.944,-4.004,-0.981 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.983,-2.549,-0.278 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.81,-2.272,-0.16 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.564,-1.912,0.056 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.586,-1.883,0.054 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.117,-0.256,0.404 -AutoETS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.167,-0.194,0.439 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.882,-4.695,-1.864 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.279,-4.038,-1.216 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.334,-4.275,-1.28 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.357,-4.213,-1.276 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.191,-4.018,-1.179 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.223,-3.928,-1.192 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.976,-3.654,-0.988 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.965,-3.363,-1.187 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.706,-1.127,-0.341 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.703,-1.224,-0.3 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.707,-1.363,-0.213 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.401,-0.822,-0.065 -Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.132,-0.678,0.204 +AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.02,-0.976,0.445 +AutoETS,Drift,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.064,-0.899,0.47 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.327,-4.403,-2.425 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.075,-4.234,-2.15 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.959,-4.08,-2.014 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.923,-4.014,-2.031 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.795,-3.832,-1.957 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.563,-3.533,-1.755 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.455,-3.414,-1.649 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.495,-3.377,-1.752 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.247,-1.812,-0.79 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.954,-1.412,-0.605 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.662,-1.07,-0.345 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.125,0.396,-0.705,-1.211,-0.31 +Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.02,-0.8,0.494 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.057,0.033,0.085 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.115,-5.071,-2.05 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.477,-4.336,-1.367 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.534,-4.489,-1.445 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.559,-4.493,-1.448 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.383,-4.225,-1.355 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.417,-4.23,-1.346 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.155,-3.922,-1.124 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.143,-3.63,-1.333 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.809,-1.239,-0.443 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.805,-1.339,-0.392 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.81,-1.486,-0.3 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.485,-0.915,-0.13 -Drift,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.2,-0.782,0.163 -Drift,Naive,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.06,-0.093,-0.034 +Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.048,0.034,0.064 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.547,-4.693,-2.565 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.282,-4.507,-2.296 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.161,-4.336,-2.16 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.123,-4.25,-2.191 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.988,-4.069,-2.118 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.744,-3.775,-1.899 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.631,-3.629,-1.789 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.673,-3.602,-1.867 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.362,-1.957,-0.894 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.053,-1.524,-0.698 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.747,-1.191,-0.416 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.791,-1.331,-0.372 +Drift,AutoETS,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.068,-0.886,0.473 +Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.051,-0.069,-0.035 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 99e0a467d850c3b6a6867f63fef9584ff88b0f0f..9981c80beae16e0be8fe13586ff06d9a450b152b 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,81.12244897959184,27.206010033027304,0.0,0.44146215657684895,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.91836734693878,21.52234963425933,0.0,0.19182607306497784,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.89795918367346,20.890325041524484,0.0,0.2769178695670531,0.14285714285714285,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.204081632653065,20.784877689823677,0.0,0.19740793887791613,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.693877551020414,24.433691225926147,0.0,24.624325844824455,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,58.6734693877551,17.302688474526384,0.0,40.822360837031404,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.530612244897966,18.41985480737933,0.0,0.267575623774152,0.14285714285714285,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.02040816326531,17.627273450652037,0.0,5.732170726769722,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,46.93877551020408,15.194099927292559,0.0,0.6280832075307411,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,41.3265306122449,14.85103303835814,0.0,8.1217004438639,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.714285714285715,8.559547840314153,0.0,1.0524198915719507,0.0,0.0 -Naive,33.67346938775511,0.0,0.0,0.3303760166094175,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,33.67346938775511,0.0,0.0,0.3545002829053957,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,33.16326530612245,1.268381723307832,0.0,3.837938836493251,0.0,0.0 -Drift,22.448979591836736,-0.26312879053229654,0.0,0.3803918226849864,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,84.03361344537814,31.481794451725598,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.94957983193277,26.52900086602983,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,72.6890756302521,26.261371917757693,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,63.44537815126049,28.503438987326348,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.344537815126046,24.789294507776617,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.20168067226891,22.723384164617542,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,53.361344537815135,15.365311043980789,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.68067226890757,20.2421879515411,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,44.537815126050425,19.731530492164218,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,40.33613445378151,11.57581735742166,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,34.03361344537815,3.6737220914351054,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,34.033613445378144,7.803844369279123,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 +Naive,31.722689075630246,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,31.722689075630246,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 +Drift,18.907563025210084,-1.4487951551292788,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 683714a7a8c9e8b8bd6d383fb4467790c8da9dd2..27d728683e0b48fa6482be99fc31082279545857 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.24489795918367,37.89814333417299,0.0,0.44146215657684895,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,79.08163265306122,33.16897553986128,0.0,0.2769178695670531,0.14285714285714285,0.0 -TiRex,77.04081632653062,33.02469775949653,0.0,0.19182607306497784,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.3673469387755,33.074780727148415,0.0,0.19740793887791613,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.77551020408162,35.38951892536581,0.0,24.624325844824455,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.71428571428573,30.230119395520305,0.0,5.732170726769722,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,58.16326530612245,29.635927638398595,0.0,0.267575623774152,0.14285714285714285,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,54.08163265306122,26.842651942892214,0.0,40.822360837031404,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,47.448979591836725,-4.359797652687147,0.0,0.6280832075307411,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,40.816326530612244,12.720875339213322,0.0,3.837938836493251,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,34.18367346938776,21.81163085229436,0.0,8.1217004438639,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,28.061224489795922,18.513661297251083,0.0,1.0524198915719507,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.89795918367347,0.0,0.0,0.3303760166094175,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.89795918367347,0.0,0.0,0.3545002829053957,0.0,0.0 -Drift,11.224489795918368,0.8533028334134163,0.0,0.3803918226849864,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,89.07563025210085,43.08495823445069,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,81.5126050420168,39.40546078196011,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,77.7310924369748,38.66421195014754,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.4873949579832,37.8955057470284,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,66.80672268907564,40.4501363806809,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,59.66386554621849,35.084488727551175,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,59.663865546218474,33.816247574403114,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,49.99999999999999,26.73938046367741,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,41.17647058823529,17.165725601006145,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,40.33613445378151,-34.43610777026744,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.23529411764705,28.13662869222201,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,27.310924369747898,18.597473231459126,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 +Naive,19.957983193277308,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.957983193277308,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.084033613445378,-0.43479898554135143,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 94d174f77c588137b9e9e6a73708bfd2ab67e832..ce1c977feec822c8f89db6cd71bc4bd2963d901f 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,76.53061224489797,27.902317818651024,0.0,0.44146215657684895,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.91836734693878,22.035595406480734,0.0,0.19182607306497784,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,68.36734693877551,21.51037252155025,0.0,0.2769178695670531,0.14285714285714285,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.73469387755102,25.75508990476133,0.0,24.624325844824455,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,59.693877551020414,17.7458998127607,0.0,40.822360837031404,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.693877551020414,21.4540081629101,0.0,0.19740793887791613,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.06122448979591,17.20630498775534,0.0,5.732170726769722,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,52.551020408163254,15.766244813880093,0.0,0.6280832075307411,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,49.489795918367356,19.033122742718145,0.0,0.267575623774152,0.14285714285714285,0.0 -Sundial-Base,43.36734693877551,15.731775780846824,0.0,8.1217004438639,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,38.26530612244898,9.283359854362615,0.0,1.0524198915719507,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,37.244897959183675,6.435723173798202,0.0,3.837938836493251,0.0,0.0 -Naive,29.081632653061224,0.0,0.0,0.3303760166094175,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,29.081632653061224,0.0,0.0,0.3545002829053957,0.0,0.0 -Drift,20.918367346938776,-0.15393437894877238,0.0,0.3803918226849864,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.67226890756302,33.033168227019026,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,72.6890756302521,27.26832437632678,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,71.84873949579831,27.337795666708587,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.54621848739495,30.55368652274818,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.344537815126046,25.51157354409269,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,55.042016806722685,15.743089812031885,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,53.78151260504202,20.258967855985233,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.10084033613446,23.083039753958012,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Sundial-Base,45.79831932773109,19.8798541280895,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,43.27731092436974,10.432170599418688,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,36.134453781512605,8.27094240114572,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,36.1344537815126,7.846800330751369,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 +Naive,28.361344537815125,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,28.361344537815125,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 +Drift,18.90756302521008,-1.418173352182306,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index b2e717404ba3d4c788e63e513d189c1a09b09f3b..ef6237b49da70b883ac2380d6e28803c3e46c870 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,82.6530612244898,41.135920747584876,0.0,0.44146215657684895,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,74.48979591836735,35.76190142212779,0.0,0.19182607306497784,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,72.95918367346938,36.29062057972634,0.0,0.2769178695670531,0.14285714285714285,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.91836734693878,36.65306328936775,0.0,0.19740793887791613,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.32653061224491,39.666401086956526,0.0,24.624325844824455,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.204081632653065,33.176747111748504,0.0,5.732170726769722,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.693877551020414,33.44582227482354,0.0,0.267575623774152,0.14285714285714285,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,54.08163265306123,29.02862277018613,0.0,40.822360837031404,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,45.408163265306115,-7.751047529296118,0.0,0.6280832075307411,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,40.816326530612244,20.123998373100438,0.0,3.837938836493251,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.79591836734695,26.04131530817504,0.0,8.1217004438639,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,31.122448979591834,20.532173463005176,0.0,1.0524198915719507,0.0,0.0 -Naive,18.877551020408166,0.0,0.0,0.3303760166094175,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.877551020408166,0.0,0.0,0.3545002829053957,0.0,0.0 -Drift,13.775510204081629,0.9803385086404104,0.0,0.3803918226849864,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,46.95158936276389,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.63025210084034,41.67847001395525,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.63025210084032,42.705288955262354,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,70.58823529411764,41.418152536422134,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,69.74789915966386,45.19356656769271,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,60.50420168067227,38.68049112544482,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,59.2436974789916,37.025124965614744,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,50.84033613445379,28.908056466103393,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,42.85714285714285,31.75917388658207,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,41.17647058823529,23.59314903701112,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,38.65546218487395,-38.47401258640348,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,29.411764705882348,20.289228155537774,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 +Naive,18.697478991596633,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.697478991596633,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.605042016806726,-0.2604826926005721,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv index c62f2afeb659dd8480df5e29e6343d21cac40d07..9f4e37eed09cfe2dfc4644a81ba64f5c16149a02 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.072,0.007,0.144 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.643,0.427,0.857,0.08,-0.012,0.173 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.081,0.009,0.159 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.037,-0.052,0.14 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.12,-0.018,0.247 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.108,0.018,0.203 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.116,0.048,0.189 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.142,0.012,0.262 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.145,0.015,0.246 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.204,0.101,0.32 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.272,0.151,0.394 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.272,0.151,0.394 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.263,0.106,0.397 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.274,0.158,0.389 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.078,-0.168,-0.007 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.214,0.714,0.008,-0.041,0.07 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.009,-0.029,0.051 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.039,-0.181,0.086 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.051,-0.071,0.179 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.038,-0.008,0.094 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.088 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.075,-0.033,0.193 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.078,-0.03,0.172 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.142,0.057,0.248 -TiRex,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.215,0.107,0.333 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.215,0.107,0.333 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.205,0.033,0.36 -TiRex,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.217,0.12,0.314 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.357,0.143,0.573,-0.087,-0.209,0.012 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.286,0.786,-0.008,-0.075,0.039 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.067,-0.014,0.151 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.014,0.137 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.042,-0.034,0.118 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.089,0.026,0.157 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.113,0.024,0.197 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.19,0.058,0.305 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.141,0.077,0.214 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.146,0.042,0.232 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.225,0.091,0.344 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.164,0.388 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.257,0.153,0.352 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.315,0.207,0.413 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.315,0.207,0.413 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.214,0.423 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.072,-0.177,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.643,0.429,0.857,0.001,-0.039,0.035 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.284,0.786,-0.047,-0.218,0.097 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.429,0.857,0.043,-0.118,0.19 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.03,-0.04,0.096 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.04,-0.038,0.112 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.067,-0.08,0.198 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.071,-0.011,0.134 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.135,0.052,0.236 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.209,0.113,0.31 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.209,0.113,0.31 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.199,0.034,0.339 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.211,0.111,0.31 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.088,-0.189,-0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.009,-0.053,0.028 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.357,0.143,0.571,-0.001,-0.036,0.037 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.048,-0.202,0.08 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.042,-0.099,0.182 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.286,0.75,0.029,-0.036,0.109 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.643,0.429,0.857,0.038,-0.02,0.101 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.066,-0.055,0.19 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.07,-0.013,0.14 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.786,0.571,0.93,0.134,0.041,0.24 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.208,0.099,0.321 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.208,0.099,0.321 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.198,0.043,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.21,0.103,0.314 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.038,-0.163,0.05 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.037,-0.094,0.153 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.214,0.716,0.045,-0.107,0.179 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.046,-0.087,0.168 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.046,0.044 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.028,-0.168,0.084 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.023,-0.016,0.059 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.528,0.882,0.049,-0.007,0.105 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.528,0.941,0.132,-0.023,0.265 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.079,0.006,0.147 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.133 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.169,0.019,0.303 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.237,0.105,0.358 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.101,0.303 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.17,0.36 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.17,0.36 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.276,0.17,0.371 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.158,-0.014 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.046,0.044 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.031,-0.156,0.07 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.02,-0.019,0.053 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.046,0.001,0.092 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.129,0.001,0.247 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.075,0.029,0.123 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.081,-0.002,0.15 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.166,0.031,0.288 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.234,0.098,0.356 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.2,0.103,0.295 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.263,0.158,0.367 +TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.263,0.158,0.367 +TiRex,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.175,0.367 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.134,0.033 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.027,-0.091,0.144 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.03,-0.076,0.135 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.086,-0.074,0.23 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.074,-0.071,0.208 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.083,-0.044,0.202 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.109,-0.038,0.239 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.643,0.357,0.859,0.113,-0.021,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.174,0.021,0.301 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.244,0.066,0.385 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.244,0.066,0.385 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.235,0.031,0.395 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.786,0.57,1.0,0.246,0.077,0.378 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.136,-0.329,0.018 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.054,-0.218,0.066 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.357,0.143,0.571,-0.045,-0.235,0.106 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.044,-0.223,0.09 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.094,-0.299,0.069 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.286,0.714,-0.014,-0.156,0.096 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.004,-0.144,0.092 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.025,-0.007,0.056 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.029,-0.166,0.197 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.096,0.014,0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.173,0.036,0.326 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.173,0.036,0.326 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.162,0.012,0.346 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.175,0.084,0.27 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.121,-0.255,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.04,-0.103,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.031,-0.106,0.039 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.714,-0.03,-0.123,0.034 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.08,-0.262,0.067 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.286,0.714,0.014,-0.106,0.135 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.049,-0.057,0.149 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.075,-0.039,0.186 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.155,0.006,0.275 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.104,-0.001,0.207 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.109,0.003,0.207 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.191,0.047,0.312 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.258,0.09,0.383 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.225,0.096,0.333 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.285,0.141,0.403 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.285,0.141,0.403 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.295,0.151,0.414 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.098,-0.186,-0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.024,-0.063,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.02,-0.056,0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.052,-0.175,0.054 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.324,0.735,0.027,-0.023,0.093 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.111,-0.025,0.234 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.057,0.001,0.117 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,0.003,0.116 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.149,0.016,0.27 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.219,0.086,0.338 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.184,0.084,0.281 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.342 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.342 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.259,0.152,0.354 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.128,-0.245,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.472,-0.052,-0.117,0.007 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.048,-0.102,-0.001 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.081,-0.229,0.038 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.265,0.676,-0.027,-0.103,0.022 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.214,0.714,0.01,-0.046,0.069 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.286,0.714,0.038,-0.08,0.153 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.042,-0.094,0.146 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.108,0.021,0.209 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.184,0.063,0.306 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.184,0.063,0.306 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.174,-0.019,0.346 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.186,0.092,0.277 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.132,-0.234,-0.051 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.05,-0.096,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.041,-0.127,0.036 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.357,0.143,0.571,-0.04,-0.112,0.02 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.09,-0.254,0.042 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.004,-0.102,0.126 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,0.786,-0.01,-0.074,0.044 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.087,-0.039,0.204 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.022,0.087 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.037,-0.073,0.115 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.126,-0.009,0.247 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.198,0.043,0.332 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.162,0.065,0.256 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.227,0.117,0.329 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.227,0.117,0.329 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.238,0.143,0.326 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.235,-0.439,-0.061 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.472,-0.152,-0.361,0.022 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.148,-0.328,-0.001 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.184,-0.38,-0.006 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.125,-0.305,0.025 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.095,-0.256,0.037 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.186,0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.054,-0.255,0.114 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.043,0.009,0.076 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.121,-0.012,0.275 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.082,0.014,0.167 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.154,0.042,0.274 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.154,0.042,0.274 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.166,0.086,0.243 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.164,-0.272,-0.083 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.086,-0.172,-0.006 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.082,-0.14,-0.03 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.116,-0.261,0.001 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.06,-0.132,-0.001 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.095,0.022 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.048,0.157 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.214,0.714,0.029,-0.07,0.142 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.033,-0.121,0.142 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.099,0.008,0.206 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.176,0.05,0.306 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.176,0.05,0.306 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.166,0.002,0.322 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.178,0.075,0.281 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.165,-0.355,-0.012 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.081,-0.239,0.032 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.072,-0.247,0.074 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.071,-0.235,0.052 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.122,-0.313,0.036 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.025,-0.059,0.007 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.286,0.714,-0.04,-0.181,0.074 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.286,0.786,-0.03,-0.166,0.066 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.004,-0.181,0.164 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.286,0.786,0.073,-0.005,0.178 -AutoETS,Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.152,0.029,0.293 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.152,0.029,0.293 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.141,-0.014,0.315 -AutoETS,Drift,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.154,0.067,0.242 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.17,-0.326,-0.015 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.085,-0.207,0.03 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.076,-0.154,0.011 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.075,-0.162,0.013 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.141,0.643,-0.127,-0.319,0.02 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.03,-0.245,0.143 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.044,-0.171,0.086 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.034,-0.166,0.108 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.004,-0.197,0.153 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.006,-0.108,0.103 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.098,-0.013,0.21 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.172,0.041,0.293 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.135,0.052,0.22 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.202,0.099,0.305 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.202,0.099,0.305 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.214,0.125,0.296 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.171,-0.303,-0.044 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.093,-0.154,-0.023 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.177,0.002 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.123,-0.261,-0.003 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.132,-0.003 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.129,0.068 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.052,-0.129,0.203 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.006,-0.115,0.098 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.5,0.286,0.786,0.069,-0.059,0.196 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.149,0.011,0.26 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.149,0.011,0.26 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.138,-0.062,0.304 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.151,-0.006,0.29 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.256,-0.471,-0.113 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.165,-0.33,-0.061 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.156,-0.308,-0.055 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.07,0.429,-0.154,-0.315,-0.043 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.21,-0.43,-0.022 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.106,-0.265,-0.014 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.121,-0.265,-0.021 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.11,-0.259,-0.008 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.214,0.714,-0.078,-0.216,0.005 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.214,0.714,-0.074,-0.244,0.055 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.092,-0.08,0.24 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.167,0.001,0.308 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.129,-0.002,0.242 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.197,0.082,0.298 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.197,0.082,0.298 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.209,0.078,0.323 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.291,-0.524,-0.1 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.204,-0.435,-0.019 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.199,-0.405,-0.032 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.237,-0.454,-0.049 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.176,-0.37,-0.016 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.144,-0.328,0.009 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.045,-0.082,-0.009 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.109,-0.266,0.013 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.102,-0.315,0.074 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.082,-0.066,0.241 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.041,-0.038,0.125 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.116,0.011,0.232 +AutoETS,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.116,0.011,0.232 +AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.128,0.052,0.207 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.406,-0.633,-0.196 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.311,-0.557,-0.117 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.306,-0.553,-0.109 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.347,-0.621,-0.099 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.281,-0.511,-0.094 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.247,-0.498,-0.045 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.138,-0.379,0.012 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.208,-0.415,-0.043 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.2,-0.445,-0.001 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.089,-0.317,0.062 +AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.045,-0.204,0.064 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.037,-0.118,0.141 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.037,-0.118,0.141 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.05,-0.122,0.172 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.346,-0.542,-0.181 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.255,-0.435,-0.112 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.25,-0.419,-0.115 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.29,-0.499,-0.106 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.226,-0.391,-0.092 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.193,-0.345,-0.07 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.2,-0.014 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.156,-0.282,-0.054 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.149,-0.32,0.002 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.043,-0.143,0.036 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.043,-0.069,0.169 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.086,0.005,0.161 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.086,0.005,0.161 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.074,-0.061,0.213 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.088,0.025,0.154 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.374,-0.651,-0.178 -Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.274,-0.5,-0.12 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.264,-0.45,-0.128 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.262,-0.473,-0.11 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.323,-0.627,-0.07 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.209,-0.483,-0.037 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.226,-0.441,-0.067 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.214,-0.44,-0.052 -Naive,AutoETS,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.179,-0.415,-0.03 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.174,-0.352,-0.012 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.094,-0.192,-0.005 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.013,-0.177,0.142 -Naive,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.003,-0.097,0.078 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.374,-0.651,-0.178 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.274,-0.5,-0.12 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.264,-0.45,-0.128 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.262,-0.473,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.323,-0.627,-0.07 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.209,-0.483,-0.037 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.226,-0.441,-0.067 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.214,-0.44,-0.052 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.179,-0.415,-0.03 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.174,-0.352,-0.012 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.094,-0.192,-0.005 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,0.015,0.139 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,0.015,0.139 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.041,0.143 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.459,-0.705,-0.26 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.399,-0.675,-0.165 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.33,-0.521,-0.172 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.294,-0.489,-0.132 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.182,-0.377,-0.044 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.254,-0.439,-0.11 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.246,-0.424,-0.09 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.131,-0.302,-0.011 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.038,-0.164,0.105 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.161,-0.015 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.013,-0.177,0.142 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.003,-0.097,0.078 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.356,-0.658,-0.119 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.258,-0.562,-0.034 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.248,-0.513,-0.035 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.246,-0.519,-0.045 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.307,-0.652,-0.032 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.194,-0.529,-0.012 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.21,-0.529,0.018 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.199,-0.474,-0.002 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.164,-0.459,0.013 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.16,-0.436,0.059 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.08,-0.271,0.057 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.013,-0.165,0.15 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.013,-0.165,0.15 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.015,-0.193,0.171 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.377,-0.636,-0.188 -Drift,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.278,-0.459,-0.136 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.267,-0.449,-0.125 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.266,-0.459,-0.115 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.214,0.0,0.43,-0.327,-0.608,-0.083 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.212,-0.37,-0.092 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.229,-0.383,-0.101 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.217,-0.39,-0.082 -Drift,AutoETS,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.182,-0.32,-0.072 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.178,-0.409,0.005 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.096,-0.182,-0.026 -Drift,Naive,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.003,-0.085,0.089 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.003,-0.085,0.089 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.016,-0.206,0.162 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.014,-0.057,0.077 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.459,-0.705,-0.26 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204 +Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.399,-0.675,-0.165 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.33,-0.521,-0.172 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.294,-0.489,-0.132 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.182,-0.377,-0.044 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.254,-0.439,-0.11 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.246,-0.424,-0.09 +Naive,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.131,-0.302,-0.011 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.038,-0.164,0.105 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.161,-0.015 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.014,-0.057,0.077 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.481,-0.733,-0.273 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.381,-0.589,-0.205 +Drift,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.58,-0.212 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.419,-0.706,-0.178 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.349,-0.548,-0.18 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.313,-0.485,-0.166 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.199,-0.321,-0.094 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.272,-0.421,-0.143 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.264,-0.478,-0.085 +Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.147,-0.262,-0.055 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.053,-0.208,0.109 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.167,-0.043 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.014,-0.084,0.054 +Drift,Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.014,-0.084,0.054 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv index 6027ded0509e3ee3beb310ccf0b1580504917026..4db239384c2369277961057c72489edd8a273e78 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.071,-0.012,0.153 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.073,0.017,0.137 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.072,0.008,0.14 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.039,-0.035,0.125 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.11,0.043,0.181 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.117,0.033,0.209 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.151,0.036,0.263 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.405,0.114,0.617 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.288,0.128,0.428 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.206,0.085,0.302 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.148,0.334 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.269,0.485 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.269,0.485 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.27,0.472 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.076,-0.18,0.012 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.061,-0.011,0.135 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.072,0.024,0.128 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.084,0.024,0.141 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.044,-0.015,0.106 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.14,0.075,0.214 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.123,0.039,0.2 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.223,0.102,0.33 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.313,0.185,0.417 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.547,0.245,0.764 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.208,0.107,0.287 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.201,0.393 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.322,0.528 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.065,-0.157,0.011 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.002,-0.046,0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.643,0.429,0.857,0.001,-0.04,0.037 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.643,0.357,0.857,-0.034,-0.175,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.042,-0.043,0.114 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.05,-0.02,0.121 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.086,-0.063,0.221 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.36,0.034,0.597 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.234,0.062,0.382 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.145,0.064,0.205 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.106,0.272 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.242,0.418 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.242,0.418 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.235,0.411 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.078,-0.159,-0.017 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.002,-0.043,0.044 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.012,-0.027,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.024,-0.016,0.062 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.018,-0.134,0.078 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.084,0.01,0.153 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.067,0.011,0.124 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.173,0.029,0.303 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.136,0.394 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.519,0.197,0.751 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.157,0.099,0.203 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.153,0.356 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.29,0.494 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.078,-0.147,-0.025 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.012,-0.048,0.026 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.786,0.571,1.0,-0.001,-0.041,0.034 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.037,-0.164,0.077 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.04,-0.011,0.09 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.048,-0.001,0.109 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.085,-0.035,0.205 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.358,0.04,0.594 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.233,0.052,0.385 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.143,0.041,0.227 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.104,0.273 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.232,0.425 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.232,0.425 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.235,0.415 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.078,-0.163,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.357,0.143,0.571,-0.001,-0.038,0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.214,0.0,0.429,0.001,-0.036,0.039 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.012,-0.027,0.045 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.03,-0.14,0.061 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.073,0.02,0.129 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.055,0.006,0.109 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.163,0.042,0.281 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.26,0.125,0.379 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.515,0.198,0.749 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.146,0.07,0.209 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.147,0.343 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.281,0.484 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.091,-0.164,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.013,-0.047,0.026 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.036,-0.163,0.071 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.041,-0.022,0.108 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.356,0.821,0.049,-0.014,0.136 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.085,-0.042,0.21 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.359,0.047,0.585 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.233,0.063,0.387 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.144,0.065,0.211 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.179,0.095,0.272 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.236,0.421 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.236,0.421 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.231,0.416 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.04,-0.143,0.034 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.357,0.143,0.643,0.033,-0.095,0.149 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.035,-0.084,0.141 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.035,-0.077,0.14 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.043,-0.144,0.047 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,0.001,0.127 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.043,-0.008,0.116 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.152,0.031,0.269 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.25,0.113,0.373 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.511,0.189,0.746 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.136,0.078,0.191 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.237,0.137,0.329 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.278,0.477 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.046,-0.119,0.015 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.017,-0.085,0.118 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.029,-0.065,0.123 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.041,-0.049,0.126 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.074,-0.038,0.186 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.082,-0.046,0.202 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.286,0.787,0.117,-0.022,0.239 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.787,0.381,0.062,0.608 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.26,0.068,0.414 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.174,0.05,0.284 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.207,0.095,0.311 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.354,0.208,0.471 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.354,0.208,0.471 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.348,0.206,0.462 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.123,-0.221,-0.045 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.044,-0.129,0.041 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.042,-0.099,0.011 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.043,-0.121,0.022 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.08,-0.228,0.036 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.1,0.003,0.193 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.083,-0.022,0.187 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.187,0.056,0.297 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.281,0.126,0.401 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.527,0.21,0.753 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.171,0.074,0.257 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.161,0.361 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.405,0.276,0.506 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.405,0.276,0.506 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.407,0.28,0.518 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.163,-0.272,-0.082 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.092,-0.181,-0.01 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.079,-0.147,-0.021 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.145,-0.001 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.111,-0.239,-0.003 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,0.786,0.008,-0.045,0.058 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.046,-0.042,0.151 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.643,0.427,0.857,0.331,0.009,0.583 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.201,0.025,0.365 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.108,-0.038,0.217 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.144,0.055,0.245 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.302,0.178,0.412 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.302,0.178,0.412 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.296,0.201,0.39 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.133,-0.265,-0.034 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.053,-0.138,0.02 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.051,-0.123,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.179,0.644,-0.051,-0.158,0.013 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.089,-0.253,0.044 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.214,0.714,-0.009,-0.062,0.043 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.02,-0.081,0.035 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.097,0.004,0.19 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.201,0.063,0.334 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.484,0.142,0.738 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.079,-0.03,0.175 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.187,0.1,0.277 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.338,0.23,0.436 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.338,0.23,0.436 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.341,0.244,0.429 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.141,-0.249,-0.04 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.071,-0.142,-0.011 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.058,-0.123,-0.006 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.045,-0.131,0.008 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.09,-0.231,0.021 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.019,-0.036,0.075 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.038,-0.091,0.156 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.326,-0.008,0.58 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.194,-0.014,0.372 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.1,-0.039,0.205 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.136,0.035,0.24 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.296,0.168,0.406 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.296,0.168,0.406 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.29,0.184,0.385 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.178,-0.358,-0.038 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.095,-0.283,0.059 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.092,-0.258,0.034 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.093,-0.265,0.04 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.213,0.714,-0.132,-0.314,0.021 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.049,-0.178,0.041 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.04,-0.184,0.083 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.114,-0.014,0.233 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.216,0.053,0.355 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.492,0.147,0.742 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.097,-0.012,0.174 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.099,0.303 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.351,0.227,0.454 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.351,0.227,0.454 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.354,0.239,0.452 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.287,-0.493,-0.114 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.209,-0.435,-0.03 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.194,-0.391,-0.044 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.18,-0.367,-0.032 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.23,-0.422,-0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.107,-0.235,-0.004 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.129,-0.304,0.014 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.299,0.002,0.546 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.162,0.009,0.352 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.064,-0.126,0.225 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.102,0.016,0.218 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.268,0.126,0.396 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.268,0.126,0.396 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.262,0.151,0.36 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.68,-1.609,-0.128 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.562,-1.482,-0.035 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.558,-1.466,-0.042 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.559,-1.407,-0.049 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.213,0.714,-0.615,-1.55,-0.067 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.357,0.143,0.573,-0.496,-1.4,-0.009 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.483,-1.379,0.008 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.427,-1.203,-0.002 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.196,-1.006,0.265 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.787,-0.335,-1.119,0.125 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.643,0.429,0.857,-0.281,-1.009,0.137 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,-0.044,-0.608,0.297 -AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,-0.044,-0.608,0.297 -AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,-0.053,-0.61,0.275 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.405,-0.749,-0.146 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.306,-0.619,-0.066 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.303,-0.626,-0.055 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.304,-0.63,-0.067 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.351,-0.705,-0.073 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.251,-0.575,-0.025 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.24,-0.593,0.013 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.193,-0.544,-0.009 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.164,-0.36,0.502 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,-0.022,0.273 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.438,0.038,0.713 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.019,-0.221,0.144 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.1,0.028,0.186 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.267,0.141,0.378 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.267,0.141,0.378 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.271,0.171,0.359 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.455,-0.716,-0.227 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.65,-0.157 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.351,-0.61,-0.143 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.334,-0.595,-0.128 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.391,-0.67,-0.144 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.252,-0.502,-0.067 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.276,-0.551,-0.056 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.376,0.022 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.786,-0.116,-0.405,0.11 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.643,0.357,0.929,-0.071,-0.27,0.073 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.127,-0.081,0.286 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.127,-0.081,0.286 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.12,-0.115,0.295 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.259,-0.433,-0.093 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.17,-0.258,-0.069 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.167,-0.293,-0.043 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.168,-0.267,-0.07 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.21,-0.397,-0.053 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.121,-0.277,0.037 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.111,-0.257,0.038 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.069,-0.29,0.112 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.429,0.213,0.714,0.251,-0.143,0.528 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.214,0.714,0.104,-0.124,0.288 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.358,-0.097,0.681 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.153,-0.417,0.05 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.018,-0.19,0.101 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,-0.011,0.302 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,-0.011,0.302 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.175,-0.025,0.321 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-1.208,-3.239,-0.325 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.08,-3.015,-0.246 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.06,-2.983,-0.248 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-1.045,-2.936,-0.233 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-1.113,-3.044,-0.267 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.937,-2.814,-0.166 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.967,-2.881,-0.173 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.78,-2.483,-0.04 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.558,-2.133,0.088 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.776,-2.496,-0.056 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.62,-2.269,0.042 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.344,-1.76,0.201 +AutoETS,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.344,-1.76,0.201 +AutoETS,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.347,-1.747,0.191 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.263,-0.402,-0.12 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.186,-0.255,-0.109 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.172,-0.265,-0.075 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.157,-0.236,-0.085 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.207,-0.346,-0.08 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.086,-0.211,0.029 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.107,-0.211,0.012 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.019,-0.168,0.181 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.132,-0.052,0.294 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.437,0.053,0.714 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.429,0.214,0.714,0.04,-0.084,0.153 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.218,0.095,0.322 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.218,0.095,0.322 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.211,0.066,0.336 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.5,-0.174 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.373,-0.118 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.375,-0.115 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.218,-0.374,-0.105 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.261,-0.45,-0.105 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.168,-0.324,-0.058 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.158,-0.315,-0.036 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.114,-0.279,-0.017 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.357,0.143,0.571,0.219,-0.159,0.502 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.643,0.066,-0.079,0.213 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.786,-0.042,-0.181,0.077 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.117,-0.014,0.233 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.281,0.162,0.385 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.281,0.162,0.385 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.284,0.14,0.401 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.647,-0.251 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.553,-0.181 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.523,-0.172 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.311,-0.49,-0.159 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.565,-0.192 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.23,-0.383,-0.111 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.254,-0.434,-0.109 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.111,-0.229,-0.029 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.017,-0.112,0.159 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.383,-0.044,0.694 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.133,-0.304,0.014 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.185,0.078,0.283 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.185,0.078,0.283 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.178,0.067,0.287 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.94,-0.368 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.717,-0.319 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.493,-0.739,-0.303 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.494,-0.727,-0.308 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.548,-0.89,-0.262 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.433,-0.702,-0.216 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.421,-0.684,-0.201 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.367,-0.654,-0.144 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.357,0.042,-0.422,0.378 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.146,-0.4,0.075 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.279,-0.475,-0.105 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.227,-0.395,-0.084 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.186,0.095,0.268 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.186,0.095,0.268 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.189,0.096,0.275 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.679,-1.026,-0.381 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.773,-0.299 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.54,-0.831,-0.293 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.365,-0.608,-0.165 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.432,0.011 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.256,-0.252,0.638 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.392,-0.627,-0.194 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.228,-0.365,-0.105 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,-0.009,-0.1,0.061 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.94,-0.368 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.717,-0.319 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.493,-0.739,-0.303 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.494,-0.727,-0.308 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.548,-0.89,-0.262 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.433,-0.702,-0.216 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.421,-0.684,-0.201 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.367,-0.654,-0.144 -Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.357,0.042,-0.422,0.378 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.146,-0.4,0.075 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.279,-0.475,-0.105 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.227,-0.395,-0.084 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.061 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.679,-1.026,-0.381 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.773,-0.299 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.54,-0.831,-0.293 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.365,-0.608,-0.165 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.432,0.011 +Naive,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.256,-0.252,0.638 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.392,-0.627,-0.194 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.228,-0.365,-0.105 Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,-0.009,-0.1,0.061 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.597,-0.893,-0.369 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.484,-0.697,-0.307 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.48,-0.709,-0.307 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.711,-0.3 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.535,-0.858,-0.259 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.421,-0.638,-0.252 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.409,-0.627,-0.225 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.355,-0.561,-0.178 -Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.357,0.05,-0.38,0.379 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.136,-0.418,0.103 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.268,-0.506,-0.071 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.217,-0.402,-0.072 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.143,0.0,0.357,0.009,-0.064,0.091 -Drift,Naive,0.143,0.0,0.357,0.009,-0.064,0.091 +Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.061 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.765,-1.118,-0.476 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.977,-0.407 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-0.937,-0.391 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.911,-0.385 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.687,-1.076,-0.389 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.518,-0.75,-0.322 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.547,-0.824,-0.314 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.371,-0.559,-0.206 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.212,-0.472,0.024 +Drift,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.257,-0.236,0.636 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.398,-0.669,-0.163 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.234,-0.379,-0.107 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.004,-0.065,0.058 +Drift,Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.004,-0.065,0.058 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index bb3eede40bd65b2555d95b79f7a29c95919612a3..57b65d5643da627470c5fa373f7e3cf2328e6395 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.075,-0.006,0.162 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.786,0.571,0.929,0.081,-0.037,0.186 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.284,0.786,0.029,-0.047,0.106 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.123,-0.04,0.273 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.082,-0.021,0.178 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.129,0.055,0.205 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.144,-0.02,0.294 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.11,0.001,0.216 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.144,-0.011,0.263 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.205,0.058,0.342 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.229,0.09,0.365 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.279,0.117,0.436 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.279,0.117,0.436 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.28,0.126,0.413 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.081,-0.194,0.006 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.079,0.01,0.153 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.078,-0.026,0.172 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.036,-0.025,0.098 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,0.008,0.183 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.205,0.042,0.342 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.16,0.091,0.233 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.129,0.027,0.216 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.164,0.033,0.263 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.252,0.076,0.401 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.377 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.27,0.125,0.39 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.33,0.175,0.45 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.33,0.175,0.45 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.34,0.195,0.456 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.086,-0.181,-0.01 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.007,-0.048,0.058 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.05,-0.197,0.066 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.052,-0.092,0.202 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.007,-0.043,0.054 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.058,0.006,0.109 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.074,-0.07,0.222 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.037,-0.021,0.097 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.075,-0.039,0.165 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.141,0.026,0.267 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.167,0.031,0.304 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.22,0.087,0.356 -TiRex,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.22,0.087,0.356 -TiRex,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.222,0.098,0.34 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.214,0.071,0.429,-0.089,-0.228,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.007,-0.062,0.046 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.047,0.039 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.047,-0.172,0.047 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.024,-0.025,0.068 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,-0.009,0.28 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.088,0.031,0.14 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.054,-0.002,0.105 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.092,-0.002,0.161 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.188,0.025,0.349 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.211,0.096,0.313 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.207,0.08,0.327 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.141,0.389 +TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.141,0.389 +TiRex,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.283,0.156,0.394 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.085,-0.208,0.026 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.041,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.057,-0.217,0.061 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.046,-0.114,0.198 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.321,0.821,0.001,-0.047,0.047 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.052,-0.025,0.14 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.068,-0.085,0.215 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.031,-0.059,0.105 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.069,-0.011,0.128 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.135,0.041,0.257 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.161,0.025,0.29 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.215,0.102,0.333 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.215,0.102,0.333 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.216,0.108,0.325 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.214,0.716,-0.03,-0.118,0.044 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.048,-0.071,0.165 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.054,-0.065,0.178 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.046,-0.183,0.057 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.025,-0.018,0.07 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.138,-0.021,0.285 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.089,0.007,0.161 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.055,-0.013,0.117 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.093,0.028,0.144 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.189,0.018,0.35 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.212,0.092,0.312 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.208,0.092,0.326 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.383 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.383 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.284,0.162,0.394 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.037,-0.108,0.024 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.045,-0.05,0.147 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.044,-0.06,0.154 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.286,0.786,0.097,-0.085,0.255 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.213,0.714,0.055,-0.053,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.103,-0.011,0.217 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.786,0.119,-0.068,0.276 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.083,-0.051,0.213 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.119,-0.008,0.235 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.182,0.037,0.318 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.206,0.06,0.335 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.258,0.099,0.401 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.258,0.099,0.401 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.259,0.101,0.4 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.141,-0.376,0.038 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.055,-0.253,0.084 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.048,-0.247,0.102 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.214,0.714,-0.108,-0.343,0.078 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.643,-0.047,-0.235,0.096 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.007,-0.17,0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.024,-0.006,0.054 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.357,0.787,-0.016,-0.18,0.094 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.024,-0.187,0.199 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.093,0.013,0.21 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.121,0.012,0.267 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.177,0.041,0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.177,0.041,0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.179,0.091,0.272 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.089,-0.217,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.007,-0.057,0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.179,0.679,-0.001,-0.049,0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.787,-0.058,-0.204,0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.357,0.857,0.045,-0.106,0.19 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.068,-0.029,0.172 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.176,0.009,0.315 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.129,0.034,0.228 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.097,-0.023,0.211 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.133,0.027,0.235 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.225,0.045,0.374 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.246,0.126,0.342 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.243,0.106,0.362 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.306,0.156,0.418 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.306,0.156,0.418 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.315,0.168,0.437 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.112,-0.225,-0.008 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.024,-0.073,0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.025,-0.075,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.073,-0.208,0.028 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.286,0.786,0.051,-0.011,0.126 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.571,0.357,0.857,0.068,-0.079,0.21 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.357,0.821,0.03,-0.052,0.113 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.068,-0.016,0.141 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.134,0.028,0.254 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.161,0.044,0.288 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.215,0.097,0.34 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.215,0.097,0.34 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.216,0.103,0.333 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.148,-0.258,-0.058 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.062,-0.123,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.055,-0.163,0.024 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.115,-0.277,0.011 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.007,-0.149,0.146 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.214,0.714,-0.054,-0.144,0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,-0.03,0.257 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.066,0.005,0.131 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.032,-0.033,0.1 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.07,0.007,0.125 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.168,0.007,0.325 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.192,0.082,0.289 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.188,0.071,0.302 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.255,0.129,0.366 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.255,0.129,0.366 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.266,0.142,0.372 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.258,-0.521,-0.043 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.158,-0.389,0.009 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.16,-0.399,0.02 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.213,-0.459,-0.009 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.346,0.029 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.057,-0.228,0.078 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.095,-0.28,0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.052,-0.265,0.121 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.059,0.01,0.119 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.086,-0.015,0.202 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.081,0.016,0.167 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.157,0.048,0.277 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.157,0.048,0.277 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.169,0.092,0.247 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.191,-0.305,-0.1 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.096,-0.162,-0.032 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.097,-0.192,-0.007 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.148,-0.295,-0.035 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.071,-0.15,-0.005 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.054,-0.085,0.186 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.429,0.213,0.643,0.017,-0.137,0.172 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,0.786,-0.023,-0.102,0.042 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.017,-0.155,0.137 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.087,-0.046,0.221 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.115,0.0,0.248 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.172,0.003,0.322 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.172,0.003,0.322 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.173,0.038,0.299 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.168,-0.416,0.02 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.08,-0.285,0.065 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.073,-0.274,0.078 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.214,0.714,-0.135,-0.382,0.063 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.024,-0.057,0.006 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.643,-0.072,-0.266,0.073 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.357,0.787,-0.017,-0.208,0.12 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.357,0.787,-0.04,-0.213,0.076 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.786,0.0,-0.196,0.174 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.214,0.714,0.071,-0.011,0.186 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.429,0.857,0.1,-0.025,0.246 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.158,0.032,0.311 -AutoETS,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.158,0.032,0.311 -AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.159,0.07,0.256 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.123,-0.276,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.039,-0.107,0.021 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.032,-0.117,0.056 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.091,-0.271,0.049 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.213,0.643,0.016,-0.103,0.153 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.179,0.643,-0.031,-0.127,0.049 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.214,0.714,0.022,-0.044,0.093 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.429,0.213,0.643,0.039,-0.082,0.175 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.037,-0.109,0.027 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.005,-0.124,0.108 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.11,-0.051,0.257 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.135,0.04,0.231 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.131,0.002,0.237 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.203,0.059,0.321 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.203,0.059,0.321 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.214,0.085,0.322 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.149,-0.276,-0.028 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.058,-0.117,0.002 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.059,-0.133,0.012 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.108,-0.267,0.023 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.033,-0.111,0.032 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.087,-0.049,0.219 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.035,-0.028,0.098 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.039,-0.104,0.16 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.107,-0.002,0.24 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.135,-0.023,0.293 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.19,0.038,0.345 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.19,0.038,0.345 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.643,0.429,0.857,0.192,0.076,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.169,-0.356,0.011 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.081,-0.197,0.037 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.074,-0.147,0.011 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.135,-0.307,0.008 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.024,-0.249,0.158 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.073,-0.164,0.016 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.018,-0.159,0.134 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.429,0.214,0.714,-0.0,-0.211,0.164 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.041,-0.191,0.094 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.04,-0.075,0.129 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.141,-0.014,0.287 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.165,0.035,0.283 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.161,0.04,0.278 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.231,0.095,0.358 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.231,0.095,0.358 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.242,0.121,0.352 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.196,-0.356,-0.034 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.102,-0.192,0.002 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.103,-0.168,-0.029 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.154,-0.307,-0.027 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.076,-0.143,-0.007 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.049,-0.137,0.209 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.005,-0.121,0.11 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.042,-0.148,0.07 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.5,0.286,0.786,0.071,-0.065,0.213 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.099,-0.069,0.234 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.157,0.023,0.283 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.157,0.023,0.283 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.159,0.004,0.301 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.258,-0.521,-0.062 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.164,-0.364,-0.027 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.156,-0.345,-0.043 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.222,-0.467,-0.039 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.103,-0.266,-0.014 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.155,-0.34,-0.029 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.096,-0.284,0.044 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.786,-0.077,-0.228,0.011 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.12,-0.315,0.002 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.214,0.714,-0.077,-0.271,0.061 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.787,0.03,-0.058,0.124 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.498,0.929,0.093,0.008,0.172 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.714,0.498,0.929,0.093,0.008,0.172 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.714,0.498,0.929,0.094,0.032,0.161 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.298,-0.574,-0.099 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.2,-0.438,-0.032 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.192,-0.409,-0.026 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.26,-0.503,-0.064 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.138,-0.364,-0.012 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.191,-0.405,-0.046 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.13,-0.331,-0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.357,0.143,0.571,-0.111,-0.326,0.025 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.156,-0.414,0.023 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.11,-0.306,0.065 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.429,0.213,0.714,-0.031,-0.141,0.055 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.105,-0.087,0.272 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.131,-0.011,0.246 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.127,-0.006,0.254 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.199,0.069,0.311 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.199,0.069,0.311 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.21,0.069,0.34 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.337,-0.668,-0.083 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.231,-0.536,-0.025 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.233,-0.539,-0.018 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.29,-0.597,-0.047 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.202,-0.482,-0.007 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.063,-0.134,-0.01 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.123,-0.345,0.049 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.164,-0.403,0.014 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.118,-0.373,0.08 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.028,-0.117,0.166 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.024,-0.083,0.123 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.104,-0.022,0.236 +AutoETS,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.104,-0.022,0.236 +AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.117,0.025,0.207 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.604,-0.186 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.267,-0.455,-0.106 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.268,-0.454,-0.101 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.327,-0.521,-0.144 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.237,-0.407,-0.089 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.094,-0.254,0.015 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.156,-0.3,-0.041 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.198,-0.394,-0.036 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.15,-0.326,0.011 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.029,-0.199,0.105 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.064,-0.062,0.17 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.064,-0.062,0.17 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.066,-0.065,0.178 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.387,-0.772,-0.132 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.283,-0.552,-0.095 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.274,-0.5,-0.113 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.347,-0.669,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.216,-0.497,-0.043 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.273,-0.516,-0.107 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.208,-0.475,-0.003 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.187,-0.451,-0.033 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.235,-0.527,-0.04 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.187,-0.395,-0.023 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.071,0.502,-0.102,-0.208,-0.008 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.069,-0.205,0.059 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.005,-0.106,0.067 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.078,-0.04,0.162 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.078,-0.04,0.162 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.091,-0.023,0.183 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.37,-0.64,-0.144 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.261,-0.485,-0.087 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.262,-0.483,-0.101 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.321,-0.569,-0.119 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.231,-0.433,-0.076 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.089,-0.2,-0.016 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.15,-0.311,-0.002 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.193,-0.385,-0.041 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.145,-0.341,0.006 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.024,-0.14,0.077 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.005,-0.072,0.096 +AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.083,0.013,0.148 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.083,0.013,0.148 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.096,0.044,0.148 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.493,-0.817,-0.213 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.375,-0.636,-0.164 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.621,-0.186 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.44,-0.719,-0.185 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.342,-0.578,-0.148 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.187,-0.383,-0.051 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.254,-0.474,-0.063 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.3,-0.559,-0.105 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.248,-0.45,-0.074 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.116,-0.309,0.022 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.193,0.039 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.09,-0.174,-0.013 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.002,-0.103,0.082 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.387,-0.772,-0.132 -Naive,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.283,-0.552,-0.095 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.274,-0.5,-0.113 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.347,-0.669,-0.11 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.216,-0.497,-0.043 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.273,-0.516,-0.107 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.208,-0.475,-0.003 -Naive,AutoETS,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.187,-0.451,-0.033 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.235,-0.527,-0.04 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.187,-0.395,-0.023 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.286,0.071,0.502,-0.102,-0.208,-0.008 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.069,-0.205,0.059 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.014,-0.061,0.08 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.493,-0.817,-0.213 +Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.375,-0.636,-0.164 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.621,-0.186 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.44,-0.719,-0.185 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.342,-0.578,-0.148 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.187,-0.383,-0.051 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.254,-0.474,-0.063 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.3,-0.559,-0.105 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.248,-0.45,-0.074 +Naive,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.116,-0.309,0.022 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.193,0.039 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.09,-0.174,-0.013 Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.002,-0.103,0.082 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.389,-0.703,-0.145 -Drift,TiRex,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.285,-0.515,-0.109 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.276,-0.481,-0.121 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.349,-0.666,-0.112 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.218,-0.374,-0.1 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.275,-0.5,-0.114 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.21,-0.428,-0.039 -Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.189,-0.345,-0.075 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.571,-0.237,-0.451,-0.082 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.189,-0.43,-0.004 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.286,0.071,0.502,-0.104,-0.191,-0.033 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.07,-0.216,0.061 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.002,-0.09,0.094 -Drift,Naive,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.002,-0.09,0.094 +Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.014,-0.061,0.08 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.514,-0.837,-0.243 +Drift,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.394,-0.65,-0.185 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.396,-0.65,-0.194 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.46,-0.777,-0.203 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.362,-0.593,-0.165 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.204,-0.328,-0.102 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.272,-0.474,-0.093 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.319,-0.542,-0.138 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.266,-0.515,-0.074 +Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.132,-0.26,-0.025 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.101,-0.224,0.022 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.106,-0.174,-0.046 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.014,-0.087,0.057 +Drift,Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.014,-0.087,0.057 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 77e6442473c43d5256b8ad50ab70ab5e379a9b7d..2cc1218c6177acc4694f642de538a7efa6cb184d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.084,0.011,0.158 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.076,-0.025,0.164 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.071,-0.021,0.152 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.284,0.786,0.024,-0.039,0.092 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.119,0.046,0.192 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.116,0.015,0.213 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.171,0.041,0.294 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.454,0.128,0.684 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.263,0.129,0.39 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.204,0.058,0.315 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.259,0.148,0.365 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.411,0.285,0.526 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.411,0.285,0.526 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.406,0.284,0.51 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.091,-0.187,-0.011 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.008,-0.055,0.026 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,0.929,-0.014,-0.07,0.033 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.065,-0.192,0.044 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.039,-0.026,0.099 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.035,-0.037,0.108 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.095,-0.047,0.232 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.404,0.045,0.657 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.196,0.056,0.326 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.131,0.019,0.215 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.192,0.093,0.304 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.358,0.253,0.457 -TiRex,Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.358,0.253,0.457 -TiRex,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.351,0.241,0.448 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.082,-0.196,0.025 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.008,-0.027,0.052 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,-0.013,0.155 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.09,0.029,0.154 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.094,0.007,0.17 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.032,-0.019,0.085 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.135,0.041,0.217 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.158,0.087,0.23 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.254,0.121,0.374 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.223,0.102,0.311 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.306,0.193,0.402 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.583,0.277,0.786 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.334,0.21,0.443 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.471,0.345,0.573 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.183,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.321,0.821,-0.006,-0.051,0.035 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.357,0.857,-0.056,-0.193,0.052 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.643,0.429,0.857,0.047,-0.03,0.128 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.5,0.929,0.043,-0.041,0.12 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.102,-0.042,0.238 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.409,0.054,0.656 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.202,0.065,0.325 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.139,0.059,0.2 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.198,0.116,0.297 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.269,0.452 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.269,0.452 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.357,0.262,0.442 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.076,-0.18,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,0.014,-0.035,0.065 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.179,0.679,0.006,-0.037,0.049 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.013,0.055 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.022,-0.021,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.045,-0.165,0.048 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.066,0.003,0.129 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.09,0.009,0.166 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.194,0.052,0.328 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.16,0.096,0.212 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.25,0.13,0.351 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.552,0.23,0.773 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.281,0.166,0.396 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.429,0.318,0.531 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.099,-0.182,-0.03 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.058,0.013 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.004,-0.049,0.05 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.064,-0.173,0.025 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.049,-0.016,0.111 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.134 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.18,0.039,0.314 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.145,0.058,0.21 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.237,0.118,0.336 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.546,0.218,0.771 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.157,0.384 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 +TiRex,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 +TiRex,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.418,0.302,0.522 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.104,-0.205,-0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.022,-0.074,0.02 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.004,-0.052,0.047 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.787,-0.05,-0.18,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.052,-0.017,0.13 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.643,0.393,0.857,0.048,-0.032,0.14 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.107,-0.023,0.239 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.412,0.073,0.651 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.207,0.081,0.333 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.143,0.064,0.213 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.203,0.113,0.307 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.273,0.458 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.273,0.458 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.267,0.447 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.214,0.716,-0.025,-0.101,0.037 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.061,-0.046,0.161 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.643,0.053,-0.055,0.162 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.213,0.714,0.048,-0.05,0.153 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.069,-0.189,0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.045,-0.019,0.121 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.07,0.004,0.14 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.176,0.046,0.302 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.142,0.079,0.197 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.233,0.12,0.33 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.547,0.218,0.773 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.265,0.158,0.37 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.311,0.512 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.033,-0.093,0.019 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.043,-0.05,0.142 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.06,-0.026,0.148 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.064,-0.027,0.159 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.214,0.786,0.097,-0.01,0.206 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.093,-0.036,0.22 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.15,-0.007,0.277 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.44,0.096,0.674 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.245,0.104,0.358 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.184,0.06,0.29 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.241,0.13,0.336 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.397,0.271,0.508 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.397,0.271,0.508 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.391,0.253,0.501 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.135,-0.238,-0.048 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.04,-0.11,0.026 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.357,0.143,0.571,-0.049,-0.147,0.029 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.055,-0.15,0.017 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.214,0.786,-0.108,-0.259,0.01 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.004,-0.069,0.053 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.286,0.786,0.058,-0.05,0.183 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.643,0.427,0.857,0.38,0.015,0.643 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.163,0.037,0.297 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.096,-0.07,0.213 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.159,0.05,0.27 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.332,0.197,0.445 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.332,0.197,0.445 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.325,0.212,0.426 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.131,-0.271,-0.015 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.036,-0.121,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.071,0.5,-0.045,-0.136,0.039 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.357,0.143,0.607,-0.051,-0.163,0.031 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.103,-0.283,0.034 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.004,-0.056,0.064 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.106,-0.008,0.214 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.13,0.035,0.223 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.229,0.083,0.352 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.197,0.086,0.291 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.283,0.174,0.367 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.57,0.25,0.783 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.312,0.194,0.414 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.452,0.325,0.553 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.452,0.325,0.553 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.453,0.326,0.558 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.156,-0.277,-0.042 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.07,-0.148,-0.003 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.051,-0.125,0.016 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.047,-0.138,0.018 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.119,-0.272,0.008 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.062,-0.066,0.19 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.382,0.024,0.643 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.167,-0.005,0.324 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.1,-0.045,0.217 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.163,0.044,0.278 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.334,0.198,0.456 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.334,0.198,0.456 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.328,0.212,0.429 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.206,-0.416,-0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.105,-0.302,0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.114,-0.313,0.04 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.12,-0.314,0.023 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.176,-0.384,0.006 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.214,0.714,-0.062,-0.224,0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.066,-0.235,0.062 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.026,-0.034,0.083 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,0.008,0.263 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,-0.014,0.191 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.197,0.061,0.317 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.528,0.182,0.766 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.231,0.116,0.341 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.387,0.259,0.495 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.387,0.259,0.495 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.388,0.271,0.491 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.187,-0.299,-0.095 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.099,-0.199,-0.009 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.154,-0.012 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.075,-0.162,-0.004 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.149,-0.287,-0.036 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.027,-0.091,0.033 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.114,0.007,0.225 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.077,-0.049,0.18 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.176,0.076,0.271 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.518,0.172,0.758 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.21,0.105,0.308 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.475 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.475 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.372,0.261,0.465 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.34,-0.597,-0.138 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.241,-0.488,-0.055 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.219,-0.459,-0.041 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.214,-0.433,-0.048 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.297,-0.543,-0.09 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.159,-0.358,-0.008 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.129,-0.291,-0.007 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.341,0.009,0.627 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.429,0.857,0.111,0.002,0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.286,0.786,0.04,-0.164,0.212 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.107,0.027,0.221 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.29,0.15,0.413 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.29,0.15,0.413 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.929,0.786,1.0,0.283,0.176,0.377 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.831,-2.166,-0.147 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.677,-1.911,-0.047 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.691,-1.909,-0.057 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.701,-1.866,-0.079 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.786,-2.07,-0.106 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.357,0.143,0.573,-0.612,-1.798,-0.016 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.619,-1.801,-0.025 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.518,-1.682,-0.009 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.214,0.716,-0.349,-1.293,0.175 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.214,0.714,-0.457,-1.496,0.097 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.643,0.429,0.857,-0.356,-1.294,0.136 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,-0.078,-0.777,0.309 -AutoETS,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,-0.078,-0.777,0.309 -AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,-0.088,-0.772,0.285 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.357,-0.639,-0.149 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.243,-0.483,-0.059 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.254,-0.482,-0.07 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.261,-0.5,-0.088 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.324,-0.557,-0.117 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.195,-0.423,-0.038 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.2,-0.48,0.005 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.357,0.143,0.571,-0.125,-0.36,-0.002 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.284,0.786,0.259,-0.213,0.564 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.357,0.143,0.643,-0.08,-0.291,0.107 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.643,0.357,0.929,-0.005,-0.113,0.081 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.201,0.058,0.319 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.201,0.058,0.319 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.857,0.643,1.0,0.193,0.045,0.329 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.256,-0.461,-0.061 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.151,-0.274,-0.019 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.161,-0.25,-0.063 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.168,-0.27,-0.069 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.226,-0.409,-0.064 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.107,-0.27,0.066 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.111,-0.277,0.043 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.214,0.714,-0.042,-0.27,0.141 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.571,0.286,0.786,0.314,-0.108,0.599 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.643,0.357,0.857,0.074,-0.12,0.225 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.042,-0.256,0.132 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.07,-0.035,0.195 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.467,0.051,0.734 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.108,0.041,0.196 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.169,0.395 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.169,0.395 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.291,0.192,0.377 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.286,-0.452,-0.114 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.191,-0.269,-0.106 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.17,-0.266,-0.062 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.165,-0.245,-0.086 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.245,-0.41,-0.094 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.113,-0.236,0.014 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.084,-0.22,0.047 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.04,-0.152,0.204 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.643,0.357,0.859,0.069,-0.066,0.195 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.26,0.148,0.361 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.26,0.148,0.361 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.253,0.101,0.37 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.35,-0.575,-0.174 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.237,-0.436,-0.103 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.247,-0.423,-0.132 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.254,-0.442,-0.127 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.317,-0.505,-0.15 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.189,-0.371,-0.053 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.194,-0.386,-0.046 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.12,-0.284,-0.027 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.357,0.143,0.571,0.262,-0.157,0.564 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.357,0.071,0.643,0.005,-0.089,0.101 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.357,0.141,0.643,-0.074,-0.243,0.062 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.107,-0.056,0.237 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.475,0.09,0.736 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.144,0.008,0.266 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.318,0.194,0.423 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.318,0.194,0.423 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.319,0.181,0.442 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.44,-0.673,-0.239 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.334,-0.542,-0.149 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.31,-0.505,-0.134 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.304,-0.493,-0.136 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.394,-0.58,-0.21 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.246,-0.465,-0.065 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.213,-0.372,-0.082 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.075,-0.242,0.034 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.12,-0.31,0.053 +AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.42,-0.002,0.715 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.041,-0.062,0.118 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.236,0.096,0.346 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.236,0.096,0.346 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.238,0.1,0.354 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.4,-3.668,-0.383 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.233,-3.406,-0.299 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-1.201,-3.366,-0.279 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.206,-3.408,-0.279 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.326,-3.6,-0.333 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.121,-3.271,-0.223 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.074,-3.125,-0.207 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.877,-2.759,-0.053 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.903,-2.791,-0.099 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.724,-2.513,0.002 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.694,-2.439,0.032 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.529,0.882,-0.385,-1.856,0.2 +AutoETS,Naive,0.706,0.529,0.882,-0.385,-1.856,0.2 +AutoETS,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.39,-1.866,0.187 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.503,-0.796,-0.266 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.391,-0.657,-0.2 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.624,-0.186 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.361,-0.587,-0.187 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.454,-0.706,-0.24 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.3,-0.517,-0.131 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.266,-0.446,-0.117 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.121,-0.244,-0.043 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.168,-0.362,-0.008 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.043,-0.134,0.059 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.41,-0.033,0.709 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.205,0.101,0.303 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.786,0.571,1.0,0.205,0.101,0.303 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.714,0.498,0.929,0.197,0.09,0.305 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.699,-1.108,-0.398 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.557,-0.841,-0.34 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.824,-0.368 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.844,-0.375 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.657,-1.035,-0.372 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.496,-0.8,-0.246 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.503,-0.837,-0.247 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.409,-0.704,-0.177 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.214,0.0,0.429,0.072,-0.446,0.437 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.252,-0.469,-0.062 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.352,-0.565,-0.173 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.258,-0.434,-0.112 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.203,0.105,0.29 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.203,0.105,0.29 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.205,0.11,0.297 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.825,-1.236,-0.481 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.631,-0.979,-0.35 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.588,-0.905,-0.322 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.653,-0.204 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.465,-0.735,-0.241 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.309,-0.53,-0.106 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.471,0.278,-0.25,0.65 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.255,-0.407,-0.117 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,-0.01,-0.106,0.064 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.699,-1.108,-0.398 -Naive,TiRex,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.557,-0.841,-0.34 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.824,-0.368 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.844,-0.375 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.657,-1.035,-0.372 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.496,-0.8,-0.246 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.503,-0.837,-0.247 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.409,-0.704,-0.177 -Naive,AutoETS,0.214,0.0,0.429,0.072,-0.446,0.437 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.252,-0.469,-0.062 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.352,-0.565,-0.173 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.258,-0.434,-0.112 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.003,-0.067,0.061 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 +Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.825,-1.236,-0.481 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.631,-0.979,-0.35 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.588,-0.905,-0.322 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.653,-0.204 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.465,-0.735,-0.241 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.309,-0.53,-0.106 +Naive,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.471,0.278,-0.25,0.65 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.255,-0.407,-0.117 Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.786,0.571,1.0,-0.01,-0.106,0.064 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.682,-1.039,-0.397 -Drift,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.541,-0.811,-0.317 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.554,-0.791,-0.354 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.563,-0.807,-0.364 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.641,-1.005,-0.339 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.482,-0.742,-0.269 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.488,-0.75,-0.269 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.071,0.0,0.214,-0.395,-0.605,-0.214 -Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.357,0.081,-0.399,0.436 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.357,-0.24,-0.49,-0.047 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.214,0.0,0.429,-0.339,-0.587,-0.112 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.286,0.071,0.502,-0.246,-0.439,-0.099 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.214,0.0,0.429,0.01,-0.068,0.096 -Drift,Naive,0.214,0.0,0.429,0.01,-0.068,0.096 +Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.003,-0.067,0.061 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.89,-1.34,-0.527 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.75,-1.131,-0.465 +Drift,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.719,-1.091,-0.433 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-1.05,-0.451 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.829,-1.263,-0.484 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.635,-0.965,-0.372 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.592,-0.871,-0.352 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.41,-0.606,-0.237 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.469,-0.793,-0.221 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.312,-0.548,-0.111 +Drift,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.28,-0.23,0.651 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.258,-0.422,-0.124 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.003,-0.065,0.063 +Drift,Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.003,-0.065,0.063 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 3a3ada8f387b2e6a4731c0f710def3a8d69e681e..d68782060dafacb45b6f583bc7c8e847d084dbb9 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,90.47619047619048,35.31864350472376,0.0,1.08294497375,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.19047619047619,28.651390012941047,0.0,0.5551602780518202,0.06666666666666667,0.0 -TiRex,80.95238095238095,27.582298462837386,0.0,0.17625203404761905,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.80952380952382,31.096632699353677,0.0,98.93934134882414,0.0,6.666666666666667 -Chronos-Bolt,61.42857142857142,24.81890864231864,0.0,0.22118076285714286,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,60.476190476190496,22.723234089572074,0.0,7.933164657840405,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.238095238095234,23.56448690221421,0.0,19.075102728891704,0.06666666666666667,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,58.57142857142858,24.154918690356443,0.0,0.27573823033707867,0.4,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,49.523809523809526,13.683099961146695,0.0,121.20207073902469,0.0,13.333333333333334 -AutoARIMA,40.476190476190474,12.6715558627288,0.0,83.91780603107307,0.0,6.666666666666667 -AutoTheta,35.23809523809525,11.659059322241683,0.0,2.5074080114285713,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,30.0,2.613720093978855,0.0,2.685501590582647,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.904761904761905,0.0,0.0,0.1833711297810219,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.142857142857142,-13.472112752876075,0.0,0.1727326724087591,0.0,0.0 -Drift,8.571428571428571,-18.909112160242316,0.0,0.23385420832116788,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.92857142857142,40.35527520955049,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.0,31.3787871700961,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.74999999999999,32.34128407289347,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 +Toto-1.0,72.32142857142857,30.925782737555462,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,63.57142857142859,35.10126239252123,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,62.142857142857125,30.06698753539797,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.64285714285714,28.430405155187888,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,58.57142857142858,29.84835021519502,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,48.21428571428572,21.102265046417777,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 +AutoARIMA,41.428571428571445,20.38664272330395,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 +AutoTheta,33.214285714285715,14.792523576771243,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,31.785714285714278,2.3088190733359215,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.928571428571432,-17.371605733693517,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.500000000000004,-17.19495252915997,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 2c0c08b7a96f5287fa7163a3c7b8f1ace68ae66a..d762ad67358f49a0c2cc5e3d7d2fadf390d33f88 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.80952380952381,45.10333245238329,0.0,1.08294497375,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,84.28571428571429,38.39554914177622,0.0,0.17625203404761905,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.09523809523809,39.03364323758747,0.0,0.5551602780518202,0.06666666666666667,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.95238095238096,41.07508160163653,0.0,98.93934134882414,0.0,6.666666666666667 -Chronos-Bolt,66.19047619047619,35.20887711202613,0.0,0.22118076285714286,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.95238095238095,34.738606640952995,0.0,19.075102728891704,0.06666666666666667,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,63.33333333333332,34.69258480634239,0.0,0.27573823033707867,0.4,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.142857142857146,28.97918023783157,0.0,7.933164657840405,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,18.569320516499886,0.0,121.20207073902469,0.0,13.333333333333334 -AutoARIMA,41.904761904761905,22.132972815425113,0.0,83.91780603107307,0.0,6.666666666666667 -AutoETS,31.904761904761912,-30.58435666800463,0.0,2.685501590582647,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,21.428571428571434,4.2619460037092605,0.0,2.5074080114285713,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.238095238095237,0.0,0.0,0.1833711297810219,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.190476190476192,-40.93975619977721,0.0,0.1727326724087591,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.285714285714286,-46.04090534252294,0.0,0.23385420832116788,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.78571428571428,51.11726197861597,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,80.35714285714286,43.412654839288344,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,74.82142857142857,43.97585098003665,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 +Toto-1.0,74.10714285714286,42.97306853626257,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,67.14285714285715,46.24923686371321,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,65.0,41.66951873570546,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.42857142857142,40.39825912219498,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,50.000000000000014,37.623889675747435,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,45.714285714285715,27.34922619892346,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 +AutoARIMA,44.28571428571429,30.565231601448495,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 +AutoETS,32.85714285714285,-9.388090977202147,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.71428571428572,8.46720438230043,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.42857142857143,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.85714285714286,-36.92812113307396,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.5,-36.00664551250195,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 7763d629f12b426c96a2216db8b3d96e0e74b99d..4b145df858cc3690229cfdddd1a2f88313a865d9 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.14285714285712,38.859397919475455,0.0,1.08294497375,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.8095238095238,32.39870558205842,0.0,0.5551602780518202,0.06666666666666667,0.0 -TiRex,76.1904761904762,31.036949386046974,0.0,0.17625203404761905,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.23809523809526,34.339572900947616,0.0,98.93934134882414,0.0,6.666666666666667 -Chronos-Bolt,62.85714285714287,27.752627025451925,0.0,0.22118076285714286,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,60.95238095238095,27.436020339282084,0.0,0.27573823033707867,0.4,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.38095238095238,25.965176079515885,0.0,19.075102728891704,0.06666666666666667,0.0 -Sundial-Base,52.85714285714287,23.431023066651658,0.0,7.933164657840405,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,52.85714285714286,15.899443452778705,0.0,121.20207073902469,0.0,13.333333333333334 -AutoTheta,37.61904761904762,14.83645294792627,0.0,2.5074080114285713,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,37.14285714285714,5.916165287171848,0.0,2.685501590582647,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,31.428571428571434,7.793158185022464,0.0,83.91780603107307,0.0,6.666666666666667 -Naive,18.333333333333336,-9.457031576354646,0.0,0.1727326724087591,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.857142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.1833711297810219,0.0,0.0 -Drift,13.333333333333334,-14.967353580047305,0.0,0.23385420832116788,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,84.28571428571428,46.429455786437416,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.75,37.92043808590599,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 +Toto-1.0,71.96428571428574,35.778831965851445,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,71.07142857142856,41.95874727359017,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,68.92857142857143,36.44667253780616,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,62.85714285714285,34.00276486111785,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.64285714285714,32.04345477073951,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,52.5,32.56219074595378,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,47.142857142857146,25.87488858437059,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 +AutoARIMA,42.5,22.038096719942146,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 +AutoETS,35.71428571428572,11.232208535480337,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,30.35714285714285,18.487358814453003,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 +Naive,18.928571428571427,-7.338384818262655,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 +Drift,15.357142857142861,-6.9443177598616845,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv index eaa859031a9649816fd1b283dff659fba77d8c78..93aadcede063b3ed81d35eb51bea2e72318a3086 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,16 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.85714285714286,50.921164816119855,0.0,1.08294497375,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.09523809523809,45.4764046578702,0.0,0.5551602780518202,0.06666666666666667,0.0 -TiRex,81.42857142857144,44.47214801038905,0.0,0.17625203404761905,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,71.90476190476191,47.197535911929535,0.0,98.93934134882414,0.0,6.666666666666667 -Chronos-Bolt,66.66666666666666,40.8439556848757,0.0,0.22118076285714286,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.23809523809524,40.48078748183856,0.0,0.27573823033707867,0.4,0.0 -Toto-1.0,63.09523809523808,40.3265903932254,0.0,19.075102728891704,0.06666666666666667,0.0 -Sundial-Base,46.66666666666667,33.06531208415598,0.0,7.933164657840405,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.76190476190475,18.689810400591746,0.0,121.20207073902469,0.0,13.333333333333334 -AutoARIMA,38.57142857142858,21.738468451857962,0.0,83.91780603107307,0.0,6.666666666666667 -AutoETS,31.90476190476191,-31.905343312999435,0.0,2.685501590582647,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.333333333333336,2.6992928402022165,0.0,2.5074080114285713,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.238095238095237,0.0,0.0,0.1833711297810219,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.047619047619047,-44.91577949662495,0.0,0.1727326724087591,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.190476190476191,-50.39541709520632,0.0,0.23385420832116788,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.92857142857142,57.23698538544018,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,78.21428571428574,49.10426514594376,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.60714285714285,50.016127718460055,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 +Toto-1.0,74.10714285714288,48.55676262651899,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,71.07142857142857,53.494037454973565,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.42857142857143,46.50676316081979,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.7857142857143,45.16312334798593,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,47.85714285714286,41.57117440400828,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,47.14285714285714,29.950996586481104,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 +AutoARIMA,47.14285714285714,33.733406325438665,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 +AutoETS,30.35714285714285,-0.6607123551083394,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.928571428571427,9.363488981349711,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.21428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.428571428571429,-33.75682103916535,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.7857142857142865,-32.08602588008633,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv index 8da51810f3bfacb55366ae2a0774029cd5abcc6e..0259ee05dcb1b1ada773f2b92f2e49aca76fd387 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.093,0.007,0.196 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.107,0.013,0.214 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.061,0.006,0.114 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.055,0.237 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.163,0.076,0.259 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.154,0.056,0.257 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.062,0.239 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.251,0.145,0.359 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.259,0.153,0.371 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.268,0.16,0.374 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.336,0.197,0.469 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.269,0.44 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.305,0.55 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.456,0.328,0.574 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.103,-0.244,-0.007 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.533,0.267,0.8,0.015,-0.001,0.031 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.333,0.867,-0.035,-0.221,0.099 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.767,0.533,0.933,0.051,0.018,0.089 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.077,0.041,0.12 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.633,1.0,0.067,0.028,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.633,1.0,0.059,0.023,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.173,0.09,0.266 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.183,0.106,0.271 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.192,0.118,0.279 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.267,0.145,0.402 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.228,0.349 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.267,0.474 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.4,0.29,0.501 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.12,-0.271,-0.014 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.467,0.2,0.733,-0.015,-0.032,0.001 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.131,0.053,0.212 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.118,0.039,0.207 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.137,0.052,0.225 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.081,0.012,0.148 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.07,0.228 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.095,0.241 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.15,0.066,0.228 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.156,0.333 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.251,0.169,0.33 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.3,0.213,0.381 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.389,0.257,0.524 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.32,0.476 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.389,0.595 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.491,0.387,0.599 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.15,-0.269,-0.056 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.4,0.867,-0.051,-0.257,0.09 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.037,0.009,0.065 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.063,0.024,0.11 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.053,0.025,0.087 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.045,0.014,0.08 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.161,0.077,0.252 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.171,0.097,0.254 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.18,0.108,0.266 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.256,0.137,0.39 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.219,0.336 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.267,0.462 -TiRex,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.391,0.288,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.065,-0.129,-0.006 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.133,0.667,0.034,-0.11,0.181 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.133,0.6,0.049,-0.099,0.204 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.014,-0.062,0.022 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.007,-0.025,0.037 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.057,-0.225,0.074 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.019,-0.006,0.046 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.01,0.074 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.022,-0.117,0.12 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.13,0.072,0.208 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.138,0.09,0.191 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.12,0.277 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.156,0.442 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.314,0.237,0.395 +TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.415,0.317,0.505 +TiRex,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.414,0.326,0.502 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.134,-0.261,-0.041 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.014,-0.022,0.058 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.02,-0.008,0.053 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.043,-0.219,0.093 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.033,-0.006,0.073 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.055,0.011,0.104 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.036,-0.106,0.138 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.08,0.218 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.15,0.096,0.208 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.122,0.3 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.307,0.168,0.445 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.242,0.409 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.335,0.513 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.423,0.334,0.508 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.158,-0.29,-0.054 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.007,-0.039,0.024 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.021,-0.056,0.008 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.064,-0.239,0.077 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.012,-0.023,0.044 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.035,-0.01,0.085 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.124,0.125 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.125,0.057,0.207 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.132,0.079,0.187 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.189,0.104,0.29 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.293,0.148,0.438 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.226,0.399 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.314,0.507 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.411,0.321,0.501 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.088,-0.174,-0.012 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.054,-0.08,0.184 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.041,-0.103,0.179 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.06,-0.083,0.193 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.084,-0.054,0.224 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.108,-0.024,0.241 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.099,-0.048,0.24 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.092,-0.047,0.227 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.467,0.933,0.202,0.048,0.344 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.733,0.467,0.933,0.211,0.055,0.359 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.733,0.467,0.933,0.22,0.073,0.365 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.292,0.113,0.458 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.733,1.0,0.311,0.186,0.429 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.393,0.228,0.543 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.421,0.249,0.562 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.31,-0.058 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.233,0.067,0.467,-0.054,-0.098,-0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.038,-0.069,-0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.091,-0.288,0.052 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.072,-0.064,0.201 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.349,0.8,0.093,-0.027,0.214 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.075,-0.054,0.19 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.177,0.049,0.304 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.185,0.068,0.296 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.125,0.347 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.336,0.149,0.489 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.351,0.263,0.435 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.447,0.327,0.56 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.446,0.321,0.564 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.296,-0.075 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.049,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.034,-0.078,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.012,-0.046,0.023 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.078,-0.252,0.06 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.023,-0.016,0.067 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.003,-0.129,0.111 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.114,0.044,0.201 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.122,0.058,0.186 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.179,0.096,0.273 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.284,0.138,0.433 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.301,0.218,0.39 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.404,0.3,0.498 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.403,0.302,0.499 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.317,-0.105 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.08,-0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.058,-0.116,-0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.036,-0.093,0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.2,0.651,-0.103,-0.273,0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.023,-0.072,0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.533,0.267,0.733,0.027,-0.03,0.093 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.567,0.3,0.8,0.016,-0.008,0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.533,0.333,0.733,0.009,-0.007,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.129,0.04,0.227 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.139,0.061,0.232 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.149,0.072,0.24 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.228,0.1,0.371 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.248,0.185,0.314 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.337,0.237,0.451 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.368,0.257,0.475 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.195,-0.349,-0.083 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.083,-0.137,-0.043 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.067,-0.124,-0.024 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.122,-0.318,0.024 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.467,0.267,0.733,-0.028,-0.103,0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.02,-0.16,0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.093,0.041,0.153 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.101,0.053,0.152 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.16,0.103,0.229 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.267,0.12,0.42 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.284,0.225,0.352 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.39,0.293,0.482 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.389,0.3,0.484 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.176,-0.296,-0.07 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.136,0.105 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.037,-0.16,0.096 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.016,-0.142,0.11 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.081,-0.235,0.051 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.003,-0.125,0.114 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.02,-0.085,0.138 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.533,0.267,0.733,-0.011,-0.08,0.044 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.467,0.2,0.733,-0.019,-0.09,0.04 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.105,0.025,0.181 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.115,0.045,0.179 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.125,0.051,0.192 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.206,0.092,0.326 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.175,0.278 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.319,0.21,0.422 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.35,0.237,0.45 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.182,-0.345,-0.059 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.367,-0.071,-0.123,-0.028 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.055,-0.095,-0.026 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.109,-0.316,0.046 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.433,0.2,0.7,-0.017,-0.043,0.008 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.467,0.267,0.733,0.011,-0.046,0.074 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.567,0.333,0.8,-0.008,-0.029,0.012 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.114,0.034,0.208 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.125,0.052,0.214 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.135,0.068,0.22 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.215,0.095,0.354 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.236,0.176,0.299 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.229,0.433 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.357,0.252,0.462 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.173,-0.314,-0.066 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.367,-0.063,-0.112,-0.024 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.047,-0.087,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.101,-0.294,0.045 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.467,0.267,0.667,-0.009,-0.025,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.533,0.267,0.8,0.019,-0.042,0.083 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.433,0.2,0.667,0.008,-0.012,0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.121,0.038,0.213 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.131,0.056,0.22 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.141,0.073,0.226 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.221,0.097,0.36 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.242,0.183,0.303 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.231,0.437 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.362,0.257,0.465 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.334,-0.561,-0.17 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.21,-0.362,-0.099 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.192,-0.336,-0.083 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.067,0.533,-0.253,-0.524,-0.05 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.148,-0.294,-0.042 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.117,-0.221,-0.026 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.129,-0.263,-0.035 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.138,-0.271,-0.04 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.111,-0.023,0.246 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.119,-0.012,0.256 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.177,0.08,0.288 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.282,0.087,0.452 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.209,0.391 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.402,0.297,0.533 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.401,0.276,0.545 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.499,-0.185 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.15,-0.262,-0.077 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.166,-0.28,-0.087 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.142,-0.261,-0.061 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.216,-0.437,-0.051 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.128,-0.251,-0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.102,-0.18,-0.043 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.125,-0.327,0.022 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.467,0.933,0.012,-0.022,0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.023,-0.014,0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.114,0.038,0.196 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.867,0.7,0.967,0.137,0.082,0.193 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.159,0.331 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.185,0.361 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.35,-0.589,-0.181 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.224,-0.372,-0.119 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.206,-0.34,-0.107 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.267,0.067,0.533,-0.267,-0.56,-0.059 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.162,-0.303,-0.065 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.13,-0.218,-0.048 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.143,-0.272,-0.054 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.151,-0.282,-0.059 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.067,0.533,-0.012,-0.05,0.021 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.776,0.009,-0.04,0.05 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.074,-0.0,0.155 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.192,0.055,0.351 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.211,0.122,0.301 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.221,0.426 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.232,0.422 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.335,-0.493,-0.204 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.16,-0.237,-0.099 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.177,-0.263,-0.106 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.153,-0.23,-0.086 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.227,-0.42,-0.072 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.138,-0.228,-0.061 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.112,-0.179,-0.056 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.135,-0.345,0.012 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.224,0.6,-0.009,-0.053,0.039 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.011,-0.028,0.048 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.103,0.033,0.188 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.733,1.0,0.127,0.08,0.174 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.144,0.324 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.266,0.174,0.352 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.366,-0.597,-0.19 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.238,-0.386,-0.134 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.22,-0.362,-0.121 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.267,0.067,0.533,-0.282,-0.576,-0.078 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.175,-0.316,-0.078 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.143,-0.238,-0.054 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.156,-0.283,-0.073 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.165,-0.292,-0.078 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.023,-0.053,0.013 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.012,-0.051,0.027 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.066,-0.014,0.158 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.185,0.034,0.342 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.204,0.115,0.294 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.322,0.212,0.425 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.321,0.227,0.417 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.429,-0.615,-0.27 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.384,-0.137 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.259,-0.429,-0.138 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.234,-0.409,-0.117 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.313,-0.532,-0.143 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.218,-0.376,-0.106 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.191,-0.297,-0.115 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.215,-0.405,-0.086 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.08,-0.183,0.0 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.07,-0.188,0.013 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.802,0.093,0.016,0.183 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.117,0.066,0.17 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.144,0.302 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.257,0.173,0.338 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.506,-0.882,-0.246 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.365,-0.673,-0.17 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.345,-0.641,-0.159 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.413,-0.846,-0.127 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.295,-0.589,-0.111 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.26,-0.484,-0.101 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.274,-0.549,-0.104 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.284,-0.562,-0.107 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.128,-0.244,-0.04 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.115,-0.232,-0.034 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.4,0.198,0.6,-0.102,-0.225,-0.016 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.128,-0.064,0.315 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.088,0.2 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.274,0.184,0.368 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.273,0.182,0.37 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.638,-1.102,-0.346 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.424,-0.791,-0.184 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.444,-0.803,-0.203 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.414,-0.78,-0.173 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.505,-0.957,-0.175 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.397,-0.764,-0.16 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.365,-0.725,-0.136 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.393,-0.824,-0.095 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.238,-0.54,-0.059 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.227,-0.519,-0.035 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.147,-0.46,0.06 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.4,0.868,0.026,-0.11,0.128 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.142,0.042,0.243 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.181,0.079,0.281 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.546,-0.787,-0.368 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.536,-0.296 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.381,-0.507,-0.28 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.267,-0.451,-0.751,-0.229 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.33,-0.458,-0.227 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.294,-0.385,-0.212 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.308,-0.427,-0.214 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.318,-0.435,-0.223 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.133,0.033,0.3,-0.159,-0.24,-0.089 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.267,-0.145,-0.21,-0.087 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.132,-0.204,-0.071 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.132,0.6,-0.027,-0.147,0.099 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.279,0.233 +AutoETS,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.168,-0.073,0.351 +AutoETS,Drift,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.166,-0.056,0.342 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.677,-0.909,-0.471 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.457,-0.653,-0.311 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.692,-0.32 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.448,-0.665,-0.292 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.541,-0.77,-0.357 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.43,-0.64,-0.278 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.397,-0.544,-0.29 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.425,-0.642,-0.265 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.267,-0.431,-0.139 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.256,-0.417,-0.13 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.25,-0.096 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.024,-0.304,0.218 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.633,0.4,0.867,0.119,-0.006,0.244 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.159,0.027,0.278 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.754,-1.224,-0.439 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.901,-0.365 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.567,-0.859,-0.364 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.647,-1.19,-0.295 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.509,-0.822,-0.311 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.468,-0.729,-0.266 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.763,-0.297 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.778,-0.3 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.494,-0.189 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.299,-0.48,-0.168 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.284,-0.432,-0.168 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.165,-0.321,-0.044 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.367,0.133,0.6,-0.135,-0.323,0.005 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.6,0.4,0.775,0.148,0.005,0.284 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.147,0.006,0.293 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.968,-1.469,-0.636 +Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.71,-1.022,-0.464 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.735,-1.055,-0.504 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.699,-1.028,-0.458 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.809,-1.274,-0.485 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.678,-0.994,-0.428 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.64,-0.931,-0.415 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.673,-1.142,-0.422 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.488,-0.741,-0.284 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.474,-0.74,-0.269 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.377,-0.582,-0.225 +Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.201,-0.54,0.068 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.225,0.6,-0.174,-0.396,-0.005 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.046,0.015,0.075 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.838,-1.347,-0.488 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.667,-1.004,-0.409 -Drift,TiRex,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.642,-0.961,-0.404 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.726,-1.285,-0.332 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.582,-0.905,-0.346 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.539,-0.817,-0.31 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.556,-0.859,-0.336 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.568,-0.868,-0.346 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.378,-0.566,-0.227 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.362,-0.544,-0.211 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.346,-0.512,-0.209 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.221,-0.391,-0.086 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.189,-0.385,-0.028 -Drift,Naive,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.048,-0.082,-0.015 +Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.002,-0.052,0.045 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.965,-1.493,-0.631 +Drift,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.708,-1.01,-0.484 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.732,-1.033,-0.5 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.697,-1.005,-0.474 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.806,-1.295,-0.473 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.676,-0.994,-0.432 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.637,-0.937,-0.428 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.671,-1.196,-0.381 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.485,-0.731,-0.303 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.472,-0.715,-0.294 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.375,-0.588,-0.223 +Drift,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.2,-0.519,0.053 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.172,-0.415,-0.006 +Drift,Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.002,-0.047,0.05 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv index b48d596cfee30c4ff8800a02dbe1b28e9ba1b06a..f99b84187fdb19a71b16e89ca10e7dfb129610e3 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.109,0.014,0.216 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.1,0.014,0.201 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.068,0.002,0.14 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.07,0.247 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.159,0.055,0.266 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.074,0.25 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.144,0.318 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.219,0.426 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.183,0.404 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.28,0.76 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.296,0.552 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.354,0.544 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.61,0.497,0.712 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.511,0.723 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.122,-0.276,-0.014 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.136,0.06,0.217 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.127,0.049,0.215 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.143,0.056,0.234 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.091,0.024,0.158 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.162,0.082,0.243 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.104,0.255 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.216,0.139,0.287 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.248,0.403 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.296,0.22,0.371 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.541,0.378,0.703 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.381,0.543 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.425,0.58 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.567,0.719 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.641,0.56,0.72 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.158,-0.277,-0.063 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.467,0.2,0.733,-0.01,-0.028,0.007 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.4,0.867,-0.045,-0.26,0.108 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.049,0.022,0.078 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.056,0.03,0.089 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.057,0.027,0.091 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.133,0.09,0.183 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.243,0.155,0.342 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.209,0.128,0.303 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.494,0.213,0.734 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.237,0.476 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.384,0.308,0.465 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.45,0.657 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.578,0.462,0.671 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.111,-0.252,-0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.533,0.267,0.8,0.01,-0.007,0.027 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.066,0.03 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.008,-0.031,0.042 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.053,-0.216,0.076 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.03,-0.001,0.062 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.051,0.02,0.085 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,-0.028,0.186 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.148,0.295 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.185,0.141,0.234 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.47,0.277,0.659 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.465 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.349,0.509 +TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.587,0.503,0.656 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.501,0.656 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.146,-0.274,-0.051 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.031,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.333,0.867,-0.035,-0.237,0.108 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.767,0.533,0.933,0.059,0.024,0.096 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.767,0.533,0.967,0.066,0.028,0.109 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.633,1.0,0.066,0.029,0.109 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.103,0.189 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.251,0.16,0.352 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.135,0.312 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.498,0.215,0.738 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.241,0.484 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.313,0.474 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.448,0.666 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.461,0.678 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.073,-0.163,-0.002 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.333,0.133,0.6,0.043,-0.121,0.206 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.133,0.667,0.033,-0.121,0.192 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.4,0.868,0.091,-0.065,0.236 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.097,-0.073,0.254 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.4,0.868,0.098,-0.056,0.241 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.17,0.029,0.307 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.733,1.0,0.276,0.13,0.408 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.243,0.078,0.391 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.514,0.201,0.747 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.385,0.197,0.533 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.967,0.9,1.0,0.411,0.274,0.528 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.582,0.44,0.7 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.597,0.453,0.713 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.328,-0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.052,-0.084,-0.023 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.233,0.067,0.467,-0.063,-0.106,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.132,0.6,-0.1,-0.309,0.061 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.267,0.733,0.007,-0.026,0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.533,0.333,0.733,0.008,-0.007,0.023 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.088,0.032,0.155 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.204,0.111,0.303 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.168,0.086,0.263 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.471,0.175,0.72 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.323,0.199,0.442 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.352,0.268,0.434 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.54,0.422,0.639 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.44,0.655 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.189,-0.362,-0.058 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.059,-0.098,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.233,0.033,0.467,-0.07,-0.123,-0.028 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.108,-0.34,0.068 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.267,0.733,-0.007,-0.04,0.025 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.018,-0.018,0.058 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.042,-0.218,0.092 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.04,-0.01,0.096 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.06,0.009,0.121 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,-0.022,0.189 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.229,0.15,0.307 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.193,0.134,0.252 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.476,0.285,0.662 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.388,0.288,0.479 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.354,0.52 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.512,0.66 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.588,0.509,0.663 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.167,-0.305,-0.06 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.008,-0.044,0.03 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.018,-0.061,0.018 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.567,0.333,0.8,0.001,-0.027,0.029 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.081,0.026,0.144 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.199,0.102,0.302 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.162,0.082,0.26 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.473,0.175,0.723 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.318,0.196,0.447 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.271,0.42 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.421,0.636 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.436,0.651 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.334,-0.079 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.06,-0.1,-0.028 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.367,-0.071,-0.122,-0.03 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.132,0.6,-0.108,-0.318,0.053 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.467,0.267,0.667,-0.008,-0.024,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.433,0.2,0.667,-0.001,-0.03,0.026 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.061,-0.244,0.087 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.022,-0.016,0.061 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.043,-0.009,0.098 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.086,-0.048,0.191 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.215,0.135,0.297 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.179,0.122,0.233 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.466,0.267,0.659 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.27,0.474 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.339,0.517 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.501,0.655 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.581,0.501,0.653 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.1,-0.188,-0.024 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.05,-0.083,0.178 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.041,-0.101,0.179 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.057,-0.096,0.196 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.079,-0.064,0.204 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.098,-0.026,0.214 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.138,0.011,0.249 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.26,0.135,0.372 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.226,0.114,0.333 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.499,0.281,0.68 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.413,0.306,0.507 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.355,0.55 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.607,0.512,0.693 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.501,0.696 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.193,-0.321,-0.09 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.031,-0.066,0.001 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.041,-0.106,0.009 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.023,-0.065,0.016 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.085,-0.256,0.061 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.08,0.028,0.143 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.198,0.107,0.292 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.161,0.084,0.253 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.47,0.177,0.718 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.318,0.2,0.434 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.347,0.267,0.424 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.42,0.633 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.438,0.648 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.294,-0.467,-0.168 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.153,-0.225,-0.099 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.233,-0.115 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.205,-0.443,-0.029 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.096,-0.183,-0.034 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.088,-0.168,-0.026 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.087,-0.167,-0.028 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.021,-0.019,0.068 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.065,-0.067,0.167 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.197,0.115,0.28 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.16,0.099,0.221 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.456,0.251,0.651 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.363,0.256,0.456 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.417,0.325,0.5 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.574,0.481,0.65 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.571,0.477,0.649 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.342,-0.117 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.053,-0.093,-0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.064,-0.137,-0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.045,-0.108,0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.109,-0.272,0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.022,-0.073,0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.044,-0.092,0.148 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.18,0.111,0.25 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.097,0.188 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.443,0.237,0.648 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.349,0.248,0.437 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.324,0.474 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.565,0.479,0.636 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.476,0.639 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.276,-0.403,-0.161 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.102,-0.229,0.027 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.113,-0.233,0.022 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.094,-0.237,0.046 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.16,-0.331,-0.011 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.2,0.063 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.047,-0.174,0.085 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.128,0.027,0.229 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.088,0.007,0.178 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.423,0.107,0.708 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.258,0.118,0.393 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.29,0.205,0.376 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.496,0.363,0.611 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.514,0.379,0.627 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.483,-0.741,-0.281 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.322,-0.52,-0.184 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.336,-0.543,-0.19 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.267,-0.382,-0.688,-0.15 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.257,-0.435,-0.125 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.248,-0.434,-0.114 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.247,-0.412,-0.12 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.147,-0.297,-0.028 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.141,-0.003,0.27 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,-0.03,0.236 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.42,0.173,0.64 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.319,0.205,0.422 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.376,0.278,0.468 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.544,0.446,0.644 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.541,0.431,0.645 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.486,-0.675,-0.329 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.284,-0.419,-0.174 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.297,-0.444,-0.177 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.274,-0.422,-0.157 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.352,-0.592,-0.156 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.246,-0.388,-0.13 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.219,-0.333,-0.124 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.165,-0.369,0.003 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.433,0.2,0.667,-0.046,-0.113,0.012 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.355,0.032,0.661 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.149,0.05,0.238 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.867,0.7,0.967,0.186,0.116,0.253 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.422,0.314,0.532 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.331,0.55 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.678,-0.225 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.264,-0.435,-0.147 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.453,-0.156 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.321,-0.643,-0.084 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.202,-0.357,-0.094 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.193,-0.351,-0.089 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.192,-0.339,-0.091 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.096,-0.217,-0.007 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.567,0.333,0.8,0.044,-0.012,0.101 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.046,-0.11,0.011 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.34,0.109,0.584 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.206,0.119,0.291 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.273,0.165,0.37 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.469,0.372,0.556 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.371,0.555 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.42,-0.589,-0.283 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.227,-0.306,-0.164 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.239,-0.336,-0.155 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.218,-0.304,-0.139 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.292,-0.499,-0.129 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.19,-0.283,-0.109 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.165,-0.231,-0.108 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.308,0.029 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.044,-0.011,0.099 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.376,0.081,0.666 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.187,0.098,0.273 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.967,0.9,1.0,0.221,0.155,0.293 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.336,0.55 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.354,0.569 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.204,-3.164,-0.388 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.976,-2.759,-0.271 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.991,-2.821,-0.274 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-1.056,-2.956,-0.251 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.89,-2.568,-0.212 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.896,-2.61,-0.212 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.886,-2.546,-0.214 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.734,-2.427,-0.12 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.55,-1.946,-0.033 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.602,-1.995,-0.088 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.36,0.124,0.595 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.241,0.139,0.334 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.306,0.199,0.4 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.493,0.39,0.578 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.489,0.393,0.574 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.177,-2.364,-0.607 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.888,-1.935,-0.384 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.908,-1.961,-0.399 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.874,-1.929,-0.365 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.995,-2.122,-0.391 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.84,-1.865,-0.335 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.796,-1.839,-0.31 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.725,-1.781,-0.209 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.515,-1.402,-0.122 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.564,-1.47,-0.141 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,-0.335,-1.539,0.086 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.333,0.867,-0.306,-1.609,0.155 -AutoETS,Naive,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.073,-0.997,0.442 -AutoETS,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.1,-0.948,0.458 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.744,-1.234,-0.42 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.554,-0.907,-0.311 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.937,-0.318 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.625,-1.14,-0.245 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.478,-0.792,-0.249 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.467,-0.808,-0.243 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.466,-0.767,-0.249 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.348,-0.647,-0.134 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.176,-0.312,-0.053 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.23,-0.376,-0.109 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.133,0.0,0.333,0.251,-0.095,0.606 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.216,-0.997,0.152 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.094,-0.891,0.27 +AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.178,-0.412,0.473 +AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.171,-0.441,0.461 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.19,-0.615 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.87,-0.393 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.634,-0.92,-0.405 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-0.903,-0.37 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.703,-1.03,-0.441 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.569,-0.838,-0.344 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.536,-0.778,-0.33 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.467,-0.731,-0.257 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.26,-0.411,-0.135 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.318,-0.501,-0.161 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.178,-0.18,0.499 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.4,0.933,0.043,-0.111,0.158 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.321,0.189,0.439 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.344,0.208,0.463 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.822,-1.192,-0.547 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.623,-0.87,-0.444 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.64,-0.899,-0.455 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.033,0.0,0.1,-0.697,-1.118,-0.377 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.543,-0.767,-0.366 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.725,-0.371 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.531,-0.735,-0.364 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.408,-0.603,-0.257 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.133,0.033,0.3,-0.228,-0.339,-0.131 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.033,0.0,0.1,-0.284,-0.414,-0.183 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.133,0.667,0.234,-0.184,0.617 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.333,0.067,0.6,-0.045,-0.187,0.1 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.085,-0.091,0.214 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.332,0.212,0.436 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.327,0.202,0.436 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.046,-1.382,-0.739 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.038,-0.536 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.083,-0.548 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.754,-1.07,-0.513 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.222,-0.549 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-1.001,-0.481 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.678,-0.902,-0.479 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.603,-0.879,-0.386 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.376,-0.587,-0.198 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.44,-0.667,-0.248 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.086,-0.371,0.471 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.093,-0.272,0.084 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.833,0.633,1.0,0.29,0.152,0.414 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.315,0.172,0.439 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.567,-2.469,-0.989 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.288,-1.916,-0.818 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.312,-1.993,-0.811 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.392,-2.335,-0.786 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.175,-1.774,-0.731 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.16,-1.745,-0.727 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.158,-1.727,-0.725 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.984,-1.57,-0.571 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.731,-1.138,-0.458 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.81,-1.222,-0.505 -Naive,AutoETS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.079,-0.794,0.499 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.472,-0.783,-0.233 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.167,0.0,0.367,-0.409,-0.707,-0.18 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.27,0.133,0.386 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.265,0.114,0.397 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.801,-2.561,-1.309 +Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.42,-1.907,-1.013 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.444,-1.943,-1.05 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.401,-1.895,-1.005 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.547,-2.26,-1.05 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.347,-1.858,-0.926 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.297,-1.75,-0.918 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.195,-1.805,-0.806 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.885,-1.253,-0.593 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.972,-1.372,-0.64 +Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.217,-0.898,0.292 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.496,-0.774,-0.269 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-0.369,-0.629,-0.153 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.035,0.014,0.054 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.66,-2.611,-1.046 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.371,-2.043,-0.859 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.395,-2.105,-0.856 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.478,-2.481,-0.828 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.254,-1.894,-0.784 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.238,-1.863,-0.772 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.236,-1.841,-0.779 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.056,-1.683,-0.61 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.793,-1.221,-0.494 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.876,-1.32,-0.549 -Drift,AutoETS,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.111,-0.844,0.487 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.525,-0.862,-0.262 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.46,-0.782,-0.208 -Drift,Naive,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.036,-0.057,-0.015 +Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.007,-0.056,0.035 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.782,-2.572,-1.273 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.403,-1.908,-1.003 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.428,-1.966,-1.036 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.385,-1.884,-1.004 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.53,-2.286,-1.004 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.332,-1.849,-0.913 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.282,-1.772,-0.909 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.18,-1.816,-0.759 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.247,-0.591 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.959,-1.348,-0.648 +Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.206,-0.854,0.306 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.486,-0.774,-0.253 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.36,-0.657,-0.129 +Drift,Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.007,-0.037,0.053 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 1771db1bee7968a0f98c33564d13ede897b64ca2..458b5b50b74ae5db9a8772e5e4c1c4a79789b405 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.096,0.01,0.196 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.113,0.025,0.214 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.069,0.01,0.122 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.154,0.068,0.248 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.157,0.072,0.245 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.174,0.069,0.28 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.273,0.16,0.386 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.109,0.291 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.282,0.163,0.392 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.35,0.19,0.498 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.337,0.214,0.468 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.308,0.567 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.389,0.284,0.488 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.468,0.33,0.589 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.106,-0.244,-0.01 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.137,0.05,0.233 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.166,0.066,0.268 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.077,-0.013,0.171 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.157,0.058,0.271 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.188,0.089,0.289 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.118,0.303 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.206,0.107,0.294 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.277,0.174,0.377 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.313,0.193,0.434 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.397,0.241,0.536 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.226,0.444 +Chronos-2,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.501,0.379,0.603 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.499,0.377,0.608 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.464,0.359,0.555 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.159,-0.304,-0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.533,0.267,0.8,0.02,-0.001,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.333,0.867,-0.03,-0.208,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.467,0.9,0.064,0.013,0.122 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.467,0.933,0.068,0.018,0.126 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.767,0.533,0.967,0.087,0.036,0.144 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.196,0.1,0.304 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.117,0.056,0.19 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.206,0.115,0.309 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.281,0.129,0.444 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.267,0.153,0.399 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.382,0.256,0.504 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.231,0.423 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.412,0.28,0.534 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.128,-0.272,-0.026 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.467,0.2,0.733,-0.02,-0.044,0.001 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.333,0.867,-0.05,-0.234,0.081 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.045,0.007,0.088 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.733,0.467,0.933,0.05,0.014,0.091 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.069,0.03,0.113 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.18,0.082,0.289 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.099,0.031,0.182 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.19,0.102,0.291 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.267,0.112,0.432 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.252,0.134,0.388 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.252,0.489 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.214,0.414 -TiRex,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.4,0.277,0.517 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.074,-0.139,-0.01 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.133,0.667,0.029,-0.102,0.173 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.133,0.667,0.048,-0.088,0.19 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.033,-0.008,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.07,-0.251,0.076 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.023,-0.02,0.079 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.4,0.825,0.059,-0.004,0.127 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.086,0.029,0.152 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,-0.074,0.199 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.091,0.253 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.108,0.318 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.301,0.158,0.452 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.238,0.142,0.342 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.422,0.313,0.52 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.42,0.319,0.513 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.274,0.476 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.199,-0.366,-0.071 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.034,-0.087,0.008 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.106,-0.297,0.055 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.011,-0.046,0.024 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.027,-0.016,0.074 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.055,-0.005,0.12 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.048,-0.117,0.184 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.134,0.048,0.24 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.176,0.075,0.298 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.122,0.444 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.109,0.322 +Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.402,0.285,0.506 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.5 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.358,0.245,0.461 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.083,-0.206,0.013 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.065,-0.082,0.201 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.096,-0.058,0.229 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.091,-0.044,0.223 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.095,-0.039,0.224 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.113,-0.038,0.254 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.767,0.567,0.967,0.219,0.065,0.357 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.142,0.017,0.265 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.229,0.068,0.372 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.733,0.467,0.933,0.302,0.102,0.472 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.288,0.129,0.436 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.4,0.219,0.555 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.733,1.0,0.343,0.208,0.461 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.429,0.25,0.579 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.182,-0.329,-0.073 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.533,-0.069,-0.139,-0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.048,-0.096,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.1,-0.287,0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.533,0.333,0.733,0.004,-0.025,0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.567,0.3,0.8,0.024,-0.01,0.06 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.467,0.867,0.141,0.027,0.264 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.333,0.802,0.056,-0.044,0.158 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.152,0.049,0.263 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.232,0.065,0.407 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.216,0.079,0.367 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.34,0.22,0.47 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.278,0.164,0.394 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.372,0.25,0.496 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.187,-0.324,-0.078 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.067,0.533,-0.073,-0.144,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.267,0.067,0.533,-0.052,-0.1,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.105,-0.289,0.037 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.467,0.267,0.667,-0.004,-0.036,0.025 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.087,-0.07,0.221 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.121,-0.022,0.246 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.801,0.146,0.026,0.259 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.139,0.017,0.248 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.6,0.9,0.217,0.089,0.337 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.256,0.114,0.395 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.346,0.157,0.502 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.288,0.166,0.392 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.336,0.581 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.457,0.334,0.579 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.325,0.506 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.186,-0.372,-0.061 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.024,-0.085,0.019 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.025,0.044 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.095,-0.283,0.065 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.037,-0.006,0.1 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.005,0.127 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.113,0.2 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.143,0.068,0.24 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.185,0.09,0.304 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.284,0.128,0.449 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.123,0.325 +TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.408,0.283,0.514 +TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.406,0.297,0.506 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.364,0.252,0.462 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.232,-0.406,-0.098 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.6,-0.063,-0.146,0.004 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.028,-0.079,0.016 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.137,-0.325,0.021 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.038,-0.111,0.006 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.267,0.733,0.02,-0.017,0.06 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.467,0.867,0.137,0.046,0.245 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.533,0.267,0.8,0.052,-0.036,0.142 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.148,0.064,0.244 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.229,0.079,0.392 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.213,0.086,0.357 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.337,0.224,0.455 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.274,0.173,0.381 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.369,0.255,0.483 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.211,-0.389,-0.074 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.233,0.033,0.467,-0.095,-0.168,-0.037 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.074,-0.127,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.128,-0.34,0.037 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.433,0.2,0.7,-0.025,-0.063,0.01 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.267,0.733,-0.02,-0.063,0.017 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.533,0.333,0.8,0.12,0.014,0.242 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.533,0.267,0.8,0.033,-0.07,0.141 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.131,0.041,0.245 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.467,0.867,0.213,0.054,0.384 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.197,0.063,0.355 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.324,0.201,0.454 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.26,0.153,0.378 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.356,0.234,0.483 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.376,-0.629,-0.191 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.244,-0.437,-0.111 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.22,-0.406,-0.089 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.233,0.033,0.433,-0.281,-0.555,-0.069 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.133,0.533,-0.164,-0.359,-0.027 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.133,0.533,-0.159,-0.325,-0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.467,0.2,0.667,-0.136,-0.319,-0.015 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.067,0.535,-0.098,-0.23,0.015 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.012,-0.029,0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.106,0.017,0.2 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.467,0.933,0.088,-0.007,0.216 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.128,0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.867,0.7,0.967,0.159,0.084,0.261 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.268,0.164,0.37 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.252,-0.41,-0.122 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.133,-0.235,-0.059 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.11,-0.222,-0.032 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.166,-0.361,-0.017 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.198,0.667,-0.06,-0.188,0.042 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.467,0.2,0.733,-0.055,-0.166,0.035 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.467,0.2,0.733,-0.034,-0.164,0.065 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.465,0.933,0.09,-0.015,0.187 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.029,-0.025,0.087 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.021,-0.14,0.15 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.11,0.007,0.226 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.153,0.023,0.293 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.257,0.088,0.427 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.19,0.096,0.301 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.385,0.269,0.494 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.383,0.267,0.491 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.34,0.237,0.445 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.269,-0.434,-0.134 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.095,-0.179,-0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.058,-0.136,0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.199,0.6,-0.171,-0.349,-0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.069,-0.145,-0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.03,-0.095,0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.008,-0.161,0.112 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.083,0.015,0.164 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.128,0.006,0.261 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.234,0.075,0.406 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.166,0.105,0.235 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.367,0.27,0.462 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.365,0.272,0.465 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.32,0.239,0.401 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.259,-0.417,-0.119 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.086,-0.248,0.069 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.225,0.105 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.162,-0.33,-0.017 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.249,0.101 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.177,0.122 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.008,-0.126,0.139 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.101,-0.01,0.197 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.186,0.034,0.343 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.17,0.084,0.268 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.3,0.153,0.427 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.867,0.732,1.0,0.234,0.166,0.303 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.334,0.18,0.462 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.393,-0.645,-0.195 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.26,-0.447,-0.13 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.235,-0.411,-0.113 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.297,-0.592,-0.073 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.179,-0.356,-0.051 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.174,-0.323,-0.068 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.15,-0.324,-0.042 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.013,-0.05,0.028 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.112,-0.245,0.01 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.533,0.267,0.8,0.095,0.004,0.199 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.4,0.933,0.076,-0.024,0.218 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.222,0.125,0.313 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.148,0.065,0.258 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.259,0.158,0.35 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.539,-0.993,-0.234 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.392,-0.799,-0.148 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.364,-0.761,-0.126 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.267,0.067,0.533,-0.433,-0.893,-0.114 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.302,-0.686,-0.069 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.297,-0.645,-0.085 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.133,0.533,-0.271,-0.624,-0.058 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.119,-0.249,-0.017 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.229,-0.522,-0.035 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.467,0.2,0.733,-0.105,-0.249,-0.004 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.333,0.867,-0.02,-0.215,0.148 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.14,0.007,0.259 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.733,0.467,0.933,0.059,-0.117,0.204 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.182,0.058,0.29 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.508,-0.88,-0.273 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.364,-0.665,-0.18 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.337,-0.634,-0.154 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.404,-0.772,-0.148 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.276,-0.579,-0.086 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.271,-0.554,-0.094 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.245,-0.551,-0.068 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.067,0.533,-0.096,-0.276,0.007 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.204,-0.365,-0.091 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.333,0.067,0.6,-0.083,-0.278,0.024 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.133,0.667,0.02,-0.173,0.177 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.09,-0.072,0.252 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.135,-0.037,0.297 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.24,0.014,0.431 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.173,0.043,0.303 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.372,0.23,0.522 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.369,0.212,0.532 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.326,0.226,0.43 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.384,-0.606,-0.211 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.194,-0.339,-0.1 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.154,-0.316,-0.05 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.4,-0.277,-0.508,-0.097 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.166,-0.316,-0.073 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.123,-0.292,-0.007 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.091,-0.196,-0.015 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.099,-0.336,0.067 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.049,-0.048,0.165 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.165,0.022,0.341 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.091,0.006,0.177 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.183,0.42 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.307,0.199,0.408 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.259,0.152,0.355 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.455,-0.767,-0.239 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.466,-0.121 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.214,-0.425,-0.081 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.343,-0.653,-0.129 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.227,-0.436,-0.099 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.181,-0.414,-0.024 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.147,-0.354,-0.006 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.156,-0.422,0.035 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.198,0.045 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.158,-0.042,0.305 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.767,0.533,0.933,0.078,0.016,0.136 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.733,0.467,0.933,0.198,-0.001,0.341 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.79,-1.307,-0.446 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.619,-1.015,-0.344 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.587,-0.957,-0.337 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.667,-1.248,-0.281 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.515,-0.887,-0.283 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.508,-0.834,-0.289 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.478,-0.832,-0.251 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.497,-0.147 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.43,-0.744,-0.18 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.285,-0.455,-0.143 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.163,-0.35,-0.007 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.187,-0.438,0.04 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.122,-0.095,0.307 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.044,-0.151,0.191 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.274,0.07,0.418 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.271,0.094,0.405 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.22,0.099,0.335 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.657,-1.155,-0.318 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.43,-0.826,-0.188 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.382,-0.8,-0.138 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.529,-1.008,-0.186 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.397,-0.815,-0.147 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.345,-0.746,-0.096 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.306,-0.685,-0.082 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.316,-0.757,-0.014 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.198,-0.518,-0.022 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.139,-0.443,0.087 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.089,-0.429,0.126 +AutoETS,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.173,-0.101,0.36 +AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.17,-0.077,0.35 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.112,-0.185,0.312 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.799,-0.292 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.313,-0.52,-0.165 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.269,-0.476,-0.123 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.404,-0.646,-0.199 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.482,-0.14 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.235,-0.432,-0.106 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.199,-0.307,-0.117 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.209,-0.434,-0.045 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.1,-0.215,-0.006 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.046,-0.236,0.131 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.082,-0.144,0.3 +AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.241,0.134,0.346 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.135,0.347 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.185,0.112,0.262 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.004,-1.516,-0.611 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.729,-1.085,-0.455 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.671,-1.026,-0.398 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.389,-0.506 +Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.689,-1.057,-0.394 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.626,-0.975,-0.368 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.58,-0.86,-0.37 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.592,-1.092,-0.299 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.448,-0.725,-0.225 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.377,-0.719,-0.076 +Naive,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.209,-0.562,0.092 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.317,-0.528,-0.155 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.433,0.2,0.667,-0.095,-0.311,0.1 -Naive,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.048,0.021,0.076 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.636,-0.953,-0.398 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.734,-0.301 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.45,-0.706,-0.272 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.267,-0.523,-0.857,-0.263 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.384,-0.649,-0.196 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.378,-0.615,-0.21 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.351,-0.607,-0.18 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.133,0.033,0.3,-0.189,-0.352,-0.091 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.133,0.0,0.268,-0.306,-0.435,-0.199 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.174,-0.348,-0.069 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.267,0.067,0.533,-0.063,-0.256,0.105 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.233,0.067,0.467,-0.085,-0.158,-0.016 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.567,0.333,0.8,0.086,-0.111,0.237 -Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.13,-0.066,0.281 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.88,-1.433,-0.492 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.701,-1.147,-0.39 -Drift,TiRex,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.667,-1.069,-0.383 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.751,-1.374,-0.334 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.591,-0.984,-0.333 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.584,-0.934,-0.342 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.553,-0.934,-0.306 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.367,-0.586,-0.196 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.501,-0.86,-0.219 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.35,-0.538,-0.187 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.222,-0.408,-0.061 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.267,0.067,0.533,-0.247,-0.517,0.001 -Drift,Naive,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.05,-0.082,-0.021 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.15,-0.391,0.062 +Naive,Drift,0.8,0.65,0.95,-0.004,-0.072,0.057 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.073,-0.301,0.102 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.996,-1.554,-0.606 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.723,-1.054,-0.468 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.665,-1.002,-0.419 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.843,-1.376,-0.501 +Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.683,-1.026,-0.423 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.62,-0.963,-0.364 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.574,-0.869,-0.374 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.586,-1.136,-0.27 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.443,-0.69,-0.249 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.372,-0.681,-0.104 +Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.205,-0.539,0.071 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.312,-0.532,-0.156 +Drift,Naive,0.2,0.05,0.35,0.004,-0.06,0.067 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.069,-0.295,0.105 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.867,-1.248,-0.559 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.611,-0.907,-0.377 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.557,-0.855,-0.325 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.025,-0.481 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.573,-0.859,-0.336 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.515,-0.802,-0.311 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.472,-0.669,-0.315 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.483,-0.755,-0.292 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.349,-0.551,-0.18 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.283,-0.504,-0.11 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.127,-0.454,0.156 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.227,-0.354,-0.126 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.068,-0.113,0.231 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.065,-0.118,0.228 +Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv index b1cca3b831a3d1e200cda5d1d5e1ba18932e24c5..e50dfe3244abbee87a6b7d6f4cc8cf5036bde361 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,226 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.1,0.016,0.198 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.667,0.467,0.867,0.116,0.025,0.216 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.071,0.006,0.131 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.087,0.26 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.091,0.261 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.178,0.07,0.286 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.181,0.352 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.275,0.52 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.266,0.49 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.341,0.782 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.355,0.621 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.509,0.392,0.618 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.661,0.547,0.757 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.674,0.562,0.764 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.111,-0.247,-0.016 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.533,0.267,0.8,0.018,-0.002,0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.333,0.867,-0.033,-0.218,0.096 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.767,0.533,0.933,0.078,0.029,0.132 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.767,0.533,0.967,0.084,0.039,0.138 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.767,0.533,0.967,0.086,0.034,0.145 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.123,0.261 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.329,0.192,0.464 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.191,0.431 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.548,0.267,0.765 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.289,0.583 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.333,0.573 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.5,0.718 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.637,0.514,0.73 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.333,0.133,0.533,-0.131,-0.276,-0.025 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.467,0.2,0.733,-0.018,-0.041,0.002 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.056,0.281 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.144,0.056,0.239 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.169,0.068,0.279 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,-0.003,0.162 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.201,0.1,0.304 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.125,0.322 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.268,0.181,0.348 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.355,0.239,0.479 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.39,0.277,0.503 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.384,0.732 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.423,0.621 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.466,0.653 +Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.68,0.599,0.752 +Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.676,0.591,0.751 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.19,-0.391,-0.06 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.533,0.267,0.8,-0.052,-0.252,0.091 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.061,0.025,0.1 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.067,0.034,0.106 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.069,0.03,0.115 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.17,0.101,0.254 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.317,0.179,0.457 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.176,0.421 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.541,0.251,0.76 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.429,0.274,0.575 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.319,0.564 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.498,0.713 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.513,0.725 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.076,-0.151,-0.006 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.133,0.667,0.032,-0.106,0.179 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.467,0.2,0.733,0.049,-0.1,0.201 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.018,-0.087,0.027 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.011,-0.027,0.047 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.094,-0.278,0.056 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.006,0.11 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.072,0.015,0.129 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,-0.034,0.265 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.232,0.148,0.339 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.273,0.162,0.4 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.482,0.276,0.68 +TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.319,0.55 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.374,0.588 +TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.619,0.524,0.699 +TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.521,0.691 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.169,-0.315,-0.06 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.018,-0.028,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.028,-0.02,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.075,-0.25,0.059 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.066,-0.001,0.134 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.825,0.65,0.975,0.088,0.032,0.151 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.145,0.003,0.26 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.246,0.148,0.36 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.286,0.17,0.408 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.492,0.284,0.687 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.449,0.323,0.554 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.5,0.386,0.596 +TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.541,0.697 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.622,0.534,0.693 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.203,-0.388,-0.073 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.011,-0.049,0.026 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.029,-0.087,0.02 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.106,-0.302,0.056 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.4,0.801,0.038,-0.011,0.085 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.062,-0.004,0.131 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.12,-0.043,0.257 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.224,0.121,0.342 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.266,0.138,0.404 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.477,0.258,0.683 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.308,0.552 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.363,0.591 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.52,0.694 +Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.516,0.689 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.193,0.003 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.086,-0.059,0.218 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.07,-0.063,0.2 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.096,-0.059,0.232 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.4,0.868,0.107,-0.04,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.4,0.868,0.113,-0.033,0.249 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.115,-0.051,0.265 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.211,0.078,0.337 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.733,1.0,0.351,0.201,0.493 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.325,0.169,0.468 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.56,0.267,0.772 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.457,0.273,0.604 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.967,0.9,1.0,0.472,0.321,0.6 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.636,0.494,0.747 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.649,0.508,0.758 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.351,-0.095 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.233,0.067,0.467,-0.085,-0.152,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.065,-0.111,-0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.132,0.6,-0.12,-0.32,0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.533,0.333,0.733,0.006,-0.023,0.037 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.567,0.3,0.8,0.009,-0.035,0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.116,0.022,0.217 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.272,0.116,0.421 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.244,0.118,0.383 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.515,0.209,0.748 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.392,0.22,0.539 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.408,0.269,0.534 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.473,0.695 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.607,0.487,0.706 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.354,-0.1 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.233,0.033,0.467,-0.092,-0.159,-0.04 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.072,-0.119,-0.035 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.132,0.6,-0.127,-0.331,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.467,0.267,0.667,-0.006,-0.038,0.022 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.131,-0.008,0.256 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.152,0.033,0.266 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.204,0.086,0.312 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.298,0.163,0.427 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.336,0.202,0.467 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.528,0.318,0.71 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.381,0.591 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.535,0.427,0.629 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.568,0.736 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.648,0.554,0.736 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.251,-0.437,-0.111 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.051,-0.124,-0.006 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.07,-0.155,0.001 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.199,0.6,-0.04,-0.093,0.011 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.15,-0.343,0.008 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.433,0.2,0.667,0.003,-0.038,0.047 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.111,0.029,0.197 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.268,0.124,0.411 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.239,0.124,0.368 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.515,0.217,0.75 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.388,0.224,0.536 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.405,0.271,0.526 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.472,0.687 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.604,0.489,0.7 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.216,-0.4,-0.076 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.233,0.033,0.467,-0.094,-0.169,-0.035 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.075,-0.13,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.13,-0.361,0.049 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.433,0.2,0.7,-0.009,-0.053,0.034 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.567,0.333,0.8,-0.003,-0.049,0.037 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.108,0.007,0.216 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.266,0.104,0.427 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.238,0.101,0.386 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.517,0.2,0.752 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.387,0.211,0.547 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.403,0.265,0.536 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.588,0.462,0.695 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.603,0.478,0.708 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.544,-0.221 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.352,-0.14 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.205,-0.34,-0.112 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.268,-0.509,-0.084 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.131,-0.277,-0.023 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.125,-0.246,-0.03 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.122,-0.276,-0.007 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.025,-0.037,0.088 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.084,-0.068,0.209 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.193,0.069,0.319 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.236,0.104,0.374 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.458,0.223,0.665 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.41,0.288,0.527 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.355,0.565 +Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.6,0.501,0.677 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.595,0.489,0.678 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.282,-0.474,-0.143 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.077,-0.148,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.175,0.025,0.35,-0.097,-0.178,-0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.066,-0.151,0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.179,-0.362,-0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.025,-0.096,0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,-0.094,0.187 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.172,0.067,0.289 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.217,0.103,0.342 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.444,0.218,0.665 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.28,0.512 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.356,0.542 +Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.59,0.501,0.668 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.585,0.495,0.666 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.366,-0.534,-0.221 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.361,0.033 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.169,-0.351,-0.003 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.136,-0.346,0.041 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.256,-0.453,-0.094 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.092,-0.264,0.064 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.066,-0.229,0.086 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.177,0.062,0.288 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.733,0.533,0.933,0.145,0.058,0.241 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.454,0.146,0.716 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.733,0.467,0.933,0.312,0.161,0.45 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.331,0.214,0.436 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.538,0.403,0.646 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.555,0.419,0.659 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-1.082,-0.379 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.491,-0.867,-0.238 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.464,-0.841,-0.218 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.267,-0.54,-0.973,-0.252 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.375,-0.728,-0.131 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.366,-0.697,-0.141 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.363,-0.745,-0.116 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.215,-0.404,-0.066 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.567,0.333,0.8,-0.039,-0.109,0.025 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.357,0.039,0.659 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.164,0.068,0.253 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.867,0.7,0.967,0.187,0.117,0.258 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.323,0.548 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.343,0.569 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.959,-0.362 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.758,-0.236 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.728,-0.214 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.482,-0.881,-0.203 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.323,-0.621,-0.134 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.315,-0.582,-0.141 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.311,-0.629,-0.112 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.267,0.067,0.467,-0.169,-0.318,-0.061 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.433,0.2,0.667,0.037,-0.025,0.098 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.118,-0.062,0.29 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.166,-0.005,0.329 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.41,0.131,0.645 +Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.355,0.224,0.471 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.416,0.303,0.513 +Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.563,0.462,0.66 +Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.558,0.442,0.666 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.55,-0.918,-0.314 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.302,-0.512,-0.173 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.326,-0.562,-0.174 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.288,-0.52,-0.138 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.425,-0.746,-0.194 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.239,-0.468,-0.075 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.208,-0.407,-0.071 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.134,-0.409,0.058 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.667,0.4,0.867,0.372,0.069,0.67 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.196,0.096,0.294 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.767,1.0,0.217,0.13,0.309 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.46,0.335,0.57 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.48,0.359,0.59 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.444,-3.589,-0.517 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.212,-3.251,-0.365 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.18,-3.172,-0.335 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-1.274,-3.381,-0.365 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.062,-2.965,-0.264 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.064,-2.994,-0.278 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-1.068,-3.028,-0.25 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.833,-2.518,-0.171 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.556,-1.933,-0.041 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.133,0.6,-0.593,-2.029,-0.074 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.325,0.775,0.054,-0.008,0.118 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.336,0.112,0.584 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.269,0.156,0.362 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.337,0.206,0.439 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.505,0.387,0.593 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.498,0.394,0.581 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.638,-1.011,-0.383 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.376,-0.668,-0.194 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.401,-0.688,-0.205 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.362,-0.677,-0.159 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.506,-0.876,-0.254 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.309,-0.598,-0.115 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.277,-0.519,-0.115 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.199,-0.491,0.005 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.225,0.675,-0.057,-0.133,0.008 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.309,0.093,0.565 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.227,0.137,0.316 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.3,0.19,0.395 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.476,0.373,0.567 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.374,0.556 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.289,-2.732,-0.624 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.932,-2.129,-0.381 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.968,-2.195,-0.396 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.911,-2.157,-0.347 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.121,-2.449,-0.466 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.844,-1.986,-0.288 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.797,-1.983,-0.279 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.696,-1.814,-0.151 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.507,-1.405,-0.126 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.447,-1.3,-0.103 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,-0.317,-1.527,0.109 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.333,0.867,-0.319,-1.609,0.144 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.09,-0.947,0.456 -AutoETS,Drift,0.867,0.667,1.0,0.117,-0.911,0.476 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.983,-1.637,-0.551 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.398,-0.407 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.752,-1.351,-0.378 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.843,-1.522,-0.376 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.645,-1.167,-0.282 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.635,-1.154,-0.288 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.631,-1.209,-0.268 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.267,0.067,0.533,-0.454,-0.817,-0.193 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.197,-0.339,-0.073 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.243,-0.415,-0.106 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.4,0.241,-0.122,0.604 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.132,-0.873,0.197 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.007,-0.774,0.314 +AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.225,-0.349,0.489 +AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.213,-0.358,0.477 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.12,-1.64,-0.733 +AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.781,-1.224,-0.469 +AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.813,-1.244,-0.477 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.232,-0.445 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.949,-1.445,-0.615 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.694,-1.113,-0.405 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.653,-1.05,-0.388 +AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.551,-0.891,-0.288 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.368,-0.568,-0.185 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.294,-0.462,-0.159 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.116,-0.246,0.466 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.333,0.867,0.027,-0.12,0.152 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.733,0.467,0.933,0.329,0.186,0.454 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.353,0.208,0.478 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.038,-1.619,-0.645 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.834,-1.341,-0.5 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.801,-1.296,-0.468 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.033,0.0,0.1,-0.894,-1.498,-0.473 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.69,-1.148,-0.369 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.68,-1.11,-0.372 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.676,-1.157,-0.361 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.494,-0.772,-0.273 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.133,0.033,0.3,-0.23,-0.348,-0.132 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.233,-0.278,-0.448,-0.149 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.133,0.667,0.242,-0.168,0.617 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.133,0.667,-0.028,-0.179,0.107 +AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.094,-0.072,0.217 +AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.322,0.188,0.435 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.314,0.173,0.433 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.338,-1.884,-0.874 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.965,-1.426,-0.596 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.001,-1.473,-0.629 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.944,-1.447,-0.57 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.15,-1.695,-0.745 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.298,-0.551 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.824,-1.184,-0.553 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.711,-1.051,-0.434 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.509,-0.784,-0.26 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.428,-0.653,-0.235 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.007,-0.459,0.436 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.103,-0.277,0.067 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.467,0.9,0.31,0.169,0.428 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.335,0.194,0.45 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.953,-3.109,-1.206 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.658,-2.552,-1.0 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.489,-0.992 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.744,-2.956,-0.976 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.45,-2.277,-0.896 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.435,-2.199,-0.894 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.428,-2.276,-0.858 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.165,-1.824,-0.675 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.782,-1.212,-0.478 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.852,-1.328,-0.505 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.099,-0.839,0.486 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.267,0.067,0.533,-0.489,-0.832,-0.228 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.1,0.533,-0.449,-0.747,-0.203 +Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.6,0.9,0.252,0.104,0.375 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.243,0.079,0.379 +Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.128,-3.026,-1.495 +Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.628,-2.324,-1.101 +Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.676,-2.301,-1.181 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.6,-2.263,-1.082 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.876,-2.787,-1.317 +Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.5,-2.099,-1.004 +Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.439,-2.013,-1.005 +Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.289,-1.944,-0.858 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.018,-1.454,-0.631 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.909,-1.312,-0.594 +Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.29,-0.958,0.259 +Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.476,-0.769,-0.232 +Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.4,-0.338,-0.599,-0.116 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.933,0.8,1.0,0.036,0.02,0.055 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.064,-3.24,-1.282 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.758,-2.709,-1.059 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.708,-2.633,-1.055 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.848,-3.129,-1.032 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.542,-2.397,-0.951 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.527,-2.332,-0.956 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.52,-2.421,-0.916 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.067,0.0,0.2,-1.247,-1.93,-0.722 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.323,-0.522 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.922,-1.439,-0.561 -Drift,AutoETS,0.133,0.0,0.333,-0.132,-0.908,0.477 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.546,-0.915,-0.263 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.504,-0.819,-0.24 -Drift,Naive,0.067,0.0,0.2,-0.038,-0.058,-0.02 +Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.013,-0.074,0.037 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.089,-3.018,-1.445 +Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.595,-2.236,-1.088 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.643,-2.256,-1.147 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.568,-2.216,-1.066 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.84,-2.79,-1.244 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.469,-2.108,-0.956 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.409,-1.99,-0.979 +Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.261,-1.99,-0.791 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.993,-1.387,-0.651 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.886,-1.253,-0.598 +Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.271,-0.912,0.264 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.457,-0.763,-0.209 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.321,-0.61,-0.086 +Drift,Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.012,-0.039,0.069 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0