[{"question": "Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17316/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "As of 1. June the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive has not yet happened. In preparation for this counter offensive, the Ukrainian army allegedly has formed several new battalions, several of them with western tanks and AFVs. Accordingly, the Russian side has reacted to this threat by building defensive fortifications in territories it controls. The counteroffensive itself seems to be quite imminent or might have already even have begun.\nAs the city of Polohy is about 20 km from the frontline and in the direction towards which it is \"most obvious\" the counteroffensive would take place towards it is apparent to ask - will the Ukrainian army manage to retake Polohy with this summer offensive?", "date_begin": "2023-06-01", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map.\nThe question will resolve Yes if, at any point before or by 1. Oct 2023, ISW shows the the following two locations:\n(Polohy Train station 47.47675302706511, 36.2585252900517\nHouse of Culture \"Miner\" 47.49121534220172, 36.191507899530706\nunder any of the following categories:\nUkrainian Control\nClaimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\nAny other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location\nThe question will resolve No if by 1. Oct 2023 the aforementioned places are assessed to be still be within the following categories:\nAssessed Russian Control\nAssessed Russian Advance\nClaimed Russian Control\nAny other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building\nThe exact location of these places on ISW map can be found by clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"Budynok Kul\u02b9tury \"Hirnyk\", Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 70600\" for the House of Culture. The train station couldn't be searched for easily, but it is quite distinctly findable on the map because of the surrounding railways.\nThe spirit of the question is to assess a possible summer offensives possibility of retaking Polohy. As summer offensives can lead into fall/autumn and it takes time for information to be known with any degree of certainty, the success of this possible summer offensive question was extended to 1. October.\nFine Print\nThis question is about whether the Ukraine manages to take back Polohy, not whether they are still holding it by 1 Oct. As such this question can be resolved as a Yes the moment aforementioned conditions are satisfied.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-09\", 0.75], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.618], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.659], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.594], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.598], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.675], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.675], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.67], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.634], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.614], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.552], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.552], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.471], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.456], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.453], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.434], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.428], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.428], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.404], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.388], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.386], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.351], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.349], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.349], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.351], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.348], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.346], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.327], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.327], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.327], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.326], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.322], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.319], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.312], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.307], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.307], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.304], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.299], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.281], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.263], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.263], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.226], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.22], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.219], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.219], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.216], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.216], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.214], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.214], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.199], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.199], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.183], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.183], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.181], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.181], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.179], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.176], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.174], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.169], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.171], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.159], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.157], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.139], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.131], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.124], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.119], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.117], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.116], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.109], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.106], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.104], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.103], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.096]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17316/ukraine-retakes-polohy-by-1-oct-2023/#comment-126532\", \"https://podcastaddict.com/war-on-the-rocks/episode/160489209\", \"https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/47.5737/36.1821\"]"}, {"question": "Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17323/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The AI Act is a proposed law in the European Union to regulate artificial intelligence. If approved, the Act would impose new rules governing the deployment of AI systems.\nThe current proposal would base rules on a risk classification system, with four levels of risk:\nUnacceptable risk AI. Harmful uses of AI that contravene EU values (such as social scoring by governments) will be banned because of the unacceptable risk they create;\nHigh-risk AI. A number of AI systems (listed in an Annex) that are creating adverse impact on people's safety or their fundamental rights are considered to be high-risk. In order to ensure trust and consistent high level of protection of safety and fundamental rights, a range of mandatory requirements (including a conformity assessment) would apply to all high-risks systems;\nLimited risk AI. Some AI systems will be subject to a limited set of obligations (e.g. transparency);\nMinimal risk AI. All other AI systems can be developed and used in the EU without additional legal obligations than existing legislation.\nOn May 11th, the EU Parliament\u2019s Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs and Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection adopted a negotiating mandate for the AI Act.\nBefore the final law can be negotiated, the EU Parliament needs to endorse this negotiating mandate. Parliament is in session June 12-15, with debate on the AI act scheduled for June 13th.", "date_begin": "2023-06-02", "date_close": "2023-06-16", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as Yes if the EU Parliament endorses a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-03\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.812], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.812], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.777], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.766], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.726], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.726], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.696], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.696], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.678], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.677], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.667], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.669], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.669], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.673], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.677], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.677], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.669], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.67], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.649], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.649], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.685], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.688], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.681], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.681], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.682], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.682], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.668], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.665], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.665], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.663], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.668], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.668], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.662], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.662], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.658], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.657], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.657], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.66], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.657], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.657], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.663], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.665], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.665], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.648], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.648], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.646], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.646], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.634], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.632], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.628], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.624], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.609], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.609], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.609], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.625], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.621], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.621], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.621], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.62], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.618], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.619], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.621], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.619], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.622], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.625], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.622], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.622], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.619], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.616], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.616], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.621]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/14/technology/europe-ai-regulation.html\", \"https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/consensus-crumbles-on-ai-act-after-epp-amendments/\"]"}, {"question": "Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17324/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Ukraine is widely expected to launch a counteroffensive this spring.\nOn June 2, 2023, President Zelenskyy said:\nThis isn\u2019t a movie. It\u2019s difficult for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive. The main thing is that Russia sees it, and that it doesn\u2019t just see it, but also feels it. And we mean the troops that have occupied our territory in particular. The result of the counteroffensive is the liberation of our territories. When that happens, you'll know it's happening.\nPreparations for the offensive are reportedly underway, and Ukrainian officials have said the offensive could come \"soon.\"", "date_begin": "2023-06-02", "date_close": "2023-06-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if two of the following sources publish reports, prior to 11:59pm UTC on Tuesday, June 20, that unequivocally state the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun.\nBBC News\nThe Economist\nThe New York Times\nThe Wall Street Journal\nFor the purposes of this resolution, only these sources will be considered.\nTo meet the threshold for a Yes resolution, a report must rely on sourced reporting. Sourced reporting can include government sources quoted on condition of anonymity, but the report must not be an opinion piece.\nFor example:\nThe hypothetical statement \"A high-level official in the US intelligence community stated, on the condition of anonymity, that Ukraine's counteroffensive began on June 9th\" would be sufficient for a Yes resolution.\nThe hypothetical statements \"Ukraine's much-anticipated offensive may begin at any moment\" or \"It appears Ukraine's offensive may have begun\" would not be sufficient for a Yes resolution.\nIf there is ambiguity about whether a statement meets this threshold, a team of three Metaculus moderators will make the final determination.\nFine Print\nIt is possible the actual start date of the offensive is before June 21, 2023 and that there is evidence available attesting to an earlier start date, but that the question resolves No because that evidence has not been reported definitively in one of the four listed outlets.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-03\", 0.875], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.788], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.81], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.782], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.782], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.718], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.63], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.619], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.619], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.619], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.586], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.586], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.592], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.58], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.554], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.566], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.557], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.557], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.595], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.597], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.615], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.638], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.638], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.656], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.685], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.694], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.693], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.708], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.708], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.747], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.756], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.758], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.759], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.799], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.803], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.815], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.83], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.828], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.835], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.855], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.857], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.861], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.861], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.863], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.862], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.865], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.866], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.866], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.873], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.878], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.878], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.881], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.881], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.883], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.884], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.883], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.879], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.879], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.874], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.873], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.872], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.872], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.87], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.872], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.875], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.855], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.855], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.855], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.855], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.853], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.853], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.852], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.851], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.852], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.854], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.854], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.856], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.856], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.856], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.856], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.853], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.853], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.856], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.856], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.858], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.862], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.862], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.863], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.865], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.865], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.867], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.868], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.868], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.868], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.869], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.866], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.869], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.873], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.876]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/08/ukraine-strikes-back\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-visits-flood-hit-kherson-as-battle-rages-nearby-1dc05260?mod=world_lead_pos1\", \"https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1666839787850825728?s=20\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65845441\", \"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-launches-counteroffensive-russia-zaporizhzhia-rcna88332\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-visits-flood-hit-kherson-as-battle-rages-nearby-1dc05260?mod=world_lead_pos1\", \"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/08/ukraine-strikes-back\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-visits-flood-hit-kherson-as-battle-rages-nearby-1dc05260?mod=hp_lead_pos2\", \"https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1666716085171699712\", \"https://www.newsweek.com/zaporizhzhia-ukraine-counteroffensive-heavy-fighting-1805218\", \"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/08/ukraine-strikes-back)\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/05/world/russia-ukraine-news\", \"https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/05/ukraines-counter-offensive-appears-to-have-begun\", \"https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1666526298129289228\", \"https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/06/07/ukraines-counter-offensive-is-gathering-pace\", \"https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1664912910923997190\", \"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-11/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-halts-operations-in-ukraine/101427770\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/06/counteroffensive-ukraine-russia-dam-sabotage/\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65818705\", \"https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1665908749205409795\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65813560\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/05/world/russia-ukraine-news\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65806152\", \"https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1665504364289740800\"]"}, {"question": "Will Lionel Messi next join Futbol Club Barcelona as a club player?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17327/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Lionel Messi is regarded as one of the best footballers of all time.\nIn June, Lionel Messi announced his departure of French Ligue 1 club, Paris Saint-German (PSG) having spent two seasons there after joining in August 2021.\nAs well as being considered one of the greatest footballers of all time, Messi is also one of a highest paid athletes in the world, and has an occult status as a result of his immense success at a club level with FC Barcelona, and at an international level with Argentina1. As such, there is a significant amount of speculation on what club Messi will join next.\nMost speculation lies with a return to:\nhis former La Liga club Barcelona, and\nhis boyhood Primera Division club Newell\u2019s Old Boys.\nAs well as a move to:\nSaudi Pro League club Al-Hilal;\nPremier League club Manchester City; and\nMajor League Soccer club Inter Miami.\nMost clubs in all of the major leagues are restricted in expressing a realistic interest in Messi due to his inevitably significant salary. An exception is his boyhood club Newell\u2019s Old Boys, where Messi would be expected to join with a significantly lower salary compared to his former clubs.\nNote 1: Lionel Messi\u2019s Wikipedia page provides an extensive chronological timeline of both his club and international career.", "date_begin": "2023-06-03", "date_close": "2025-06-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes for the club that Lionel Messi has joined as a club player.\nIt will resolve No for all other clubs.\nConfirmation of Messi joining a new club will come from reliable and trustworthy sport news sources such as:\nSky Sports;\nBBC News; and\nFabrizio Romano\u2019s official Twitter page.\nIn the case that Messi announces retirement or his intention to take an indefinite period of rest, this question will resolve No for all clubs.\nIf Messi joins a club in a role that is not a club player (e.g. as a coach), the question will resolve No for that club and all other clubs; a role of player-manager would resolve Yes for that club.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-06\", 0.38], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.38], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.353], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.452], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.452], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.422], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.296], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.292], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.214], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.214], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.172], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.156], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.141], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.14], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.128], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.128], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.128], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.052], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.049], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.046], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.014], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.013], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.014], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.016], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.016], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.014], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.014], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Lionel Messi next join Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club as a club player?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17328/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Lionel Messi is regarded as one of the best footballers of all time.\nIn June, Lionel Messi announced his departure of French Ligue 1 club, Paris Saint-German (PSG) having spent two seasons there after joining in August 2021.\nAs well as being considered one of the greatest footballers of all time, Messi is also one of a highest paid athletes in the world, and has an occult status as a result of his immense success at a club level with FC Barcelona, and at an international level with Argentina1. As such, there is a significant amount of speculation on what club Messi will join next.\nMost speculation lies with a return to:\nhis former La Liga club Barcelona, and\nhis boyhood Primera Division club Newell\u2019s Old Boys.\nAs well as a move to:\nSaudi Pro League club Al-Hilal;\nPremier League club Manchester City; and\nMajor League Soccer club Inter Miami.\nMost clubs in all of the major leagues are restricted in expressing a realistic interest in Messi due to his inevitably significant salary. An exception is his boyhood club Newell\u2019s Old Boys, where Messi would be expected to join with a significantly lower salary compared to his former clubs.\nNote 1: Lionel Messi\u2019s Wikipedia page provides an extensive chronological timeline of both his club and international career.", "date_begin": "2023-06-03", "date_close": "2025-06-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes for the club that Lionel Messi has joined as a club player.\nIt will resolve No for all other clubs.\nConfirmation of Messi joining a new club will come from reliable and trustworthy sport news sources such as:\nSky Sports;\nBBC News; and\nFabrizio Romano\u2019s official Twitter page.\nIn the case that Messi announces retirement or his intention to take an indefinite period of rest, this question will resolve No for all clubs.\nIf Messi joins a club in a role that is not a club player (e.g. as a coach), the question will resolve No for that club and all other clubs; a role of player-manager would resolve Yes for that club.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-06\", 0.25], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.317], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.35], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.332], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.332], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.23], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.233], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.193], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.192], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.164], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.145], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.129], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.121], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.106], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.106], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.089], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.089], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.089], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.089], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.089], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.089], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.088], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.051], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.044], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.042], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Lionel Messi next join Manchester City Football Club as a club player?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17329/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Lionel Messi is regarded as one of the best footballers of all time.\nIn June, Lionel Messi announced his departure of French Ligue 1 club, Paris Saint-German (PSG) having spent two seasons there after joining in August 2021.\nAs well as being considered one of the greatest footballers of all time, Messi is also one of a highest paid athletes in the world, and has an occult status as a result of his immense success at a club level with FC Barcelona, and at an international level with Argentina1. As such, there is a significant amount of speculation on what club Messi will join next.\nMost speculation lies with a return to:\nhis former La Liga club Barcelona, and\nhis boyhood Primera Division club Newell\u2019s Old Boys.\nAs well as a move to:\nSaudi Pro League club Al-Hilal;\nPremier League club Manchester City; and\nMajor League Soccer club Inter Miami.\nMost clubs in all of the major leagues are restricted in expressing a realistic interest in Messi due to his inevitably significant salary. An exception is his boyhood club Newell\u2019s Old Boys, where Messi would be expected to join with a significantly lower salary compared to his former clubs.\nNote 1: Lionel Messi\u2019s Wikipedia page provides an extensive chronological timeline of both his club and international career.", "date_begin": "2023-06-03", "date_close": "2025-06-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes for the club that Lionel Messi has joined as a club player.\nIt will resolve No for all other clubs.\nConfirmation of Messi joining a new club will come from reliable and trustworthy sport news sources such as:\nSky Sports;\nBBC News; and\nFabrizio Romano\u2019s official Twitter page.\nIn the case that Messi announces retirement or his intention to take an indefinite period of rest, this question will resolve No for all clubs.\nIf Messi joins a club in a role that is not a club player (e.g. as a coach), the question will resolve No for that club and all other clubs; a role of player-manager would resolve Yes for that club.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-06\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.25], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.21], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.17], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.17], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.136], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.127], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.116], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.101], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.091], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.087], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.072], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.066], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.061], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.053], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.049], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.046], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.044], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.041], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.013], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.013], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.009], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.009]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Lionel Messi next join Club Internacional de F\u00fatbol Miami as a club player?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17330/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Lionel Messi is regarded as one of the best footballers of all time.\nIn June, Lionel Messi announced his departure of French Ligue 1 club, Paris Saint-German (PSG) having spent two seasons there after joining in August 2021.\nAs well as being considered one of the greatest footballers of all time, Messi is also one of a highest paid athletes in the world, and has an occult status as a result of his immense success at a club level with FC Barcelona, and at an international level with Argentina1. As such, there is a significant amount of speculation on what club Messi will join next.\nMost speculation lies with a return to:\nhis former La Liga club Barcelona, and\nhis boyhood Primera Division club Newell\u2019s Old Boys.\nAs well as a move to:\nSaudi Pro League club Al-Hilal;\nPremier League club Manchester City; and\nMajor League Soccer club Inter Miami.\nMost clubs in all of the major leagues are restricted in expressing a realistic interest in Messi due to his inevitably significant salary. An exception is his boyhood club Newell\u2019s Old Boys, where Messi would be expected to join with a significantly lower salary compared to his former clubs.\nNote 1: Lionel Messi\u2019s Wikipedia page provides an extensive chronological timeline of both his club and international career.", "date_begin": "2023-06-03", "date_close": "2025-06-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes for the club that Lionel Messi has joined as a club player.\nIt will resolve No for all other clubs.\nConfirmation of Messi joining a new club will come from reliable and trustworthy sport news sources such as:\nSky Sports;\nBBC News; and\nFabrizio Romano\u2019s official Twitter page.\nIn the case that Messi announces retirement or his intention to take an indefinite period of rest, this question will resolve No for all clubs.\nIf Messi joins a club in a role that is not a club player (e.g. as a coach), the question will resolve No for that club and all other clubs; a role of player-manager would resolve Yes for that club.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-06\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.25], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.204], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.204], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.332], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.347], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.343], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.343], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.473], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.473], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.475], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.547], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.72], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.72], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.824], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.82], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.837], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.838], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.855], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.867], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.867], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.868], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.868], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.933], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.938], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.948], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.951], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.951], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.977], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.977], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.977], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.981], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.981], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.982], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.982], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.982], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.982], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.982], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.976], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.977], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.978], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.978], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.978], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.978], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.976], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.976], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.977], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.977], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.977], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.978], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.973], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.973], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.974], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.974]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Lionel Messi next join Club Atl\u00e9tico Newell's Old Boys as a club player?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17331/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Lionel Messi is regarded as one of the best footballers of all time.\nIn June, Lionel Messi announced his departure of French Ligue 1 club, Paris Saint-German (PSG) having spent two seasons there after joining in August 2021.\nAs well as being considered one of the greatest footballers of all time, Messi is also one of a highest paid athletes in the world, and has an occult status as a result of his immense success at a club level with FC Barcelona, and at an international level with Argentina1. As such, there is a significant amount of speculation on what club Messi will join next.\nMost speculation lies with a return to:\nhis former La Liga club Barcelona, and\nhis boyhood Primera Division club Newell\u2019s Old Boys.\nAs well as a move to:\nSaudi Pro League club Al-Hilal;\nPremier League club Manchester City; and\nMajor League Soccer club Inter Miami.\nMost clubs in all of the major leagues are restricted in expressing a realistic interest in Messi due to his inevitably significant salary. An exception is his boyhood club Newell\u2019s Old Boys, where Messi would be expected to join with a significantly lower salary compared to his former clubs.\nNote 1: Lionel Messi\u2019s Wikipedia page provides an extensive chronological timeline of both his club and international career.", "date_begin": "2023-06-03", "date_close": "2025-06-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes for the club that Lionel Messi has joined as a club player.\nIt will resolve No for all other clubs.\nConfirmation of Messi joining a new club will come from reliable and trustworthy sport news sources such as:\nSky Sports;\nBBC News; and\nFabrizio Romano\u2019s official Twitter page.\nIn the case that Messi announces retirement or his intention to take an indefinite period of rest, this question will resolve No for all clubs.\nIf Messi joins a club in a role that is not a club player (e.g. as a coach), the question will resolve No for that club and all other clubs; a role of player-manager would resolve Yes for that club.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-06\", 0.45], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.4], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.41], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.34], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.288], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.24], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.202], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.137], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.137], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.128], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.088], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.088], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.069], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.069], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.058], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.058], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.057], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.057], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.047], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.041], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.041], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.039], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.009], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.009]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17370/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The NBA Finals and the Stanley Cup Finals both feature a best-of-seven series format, which means that a team must win four games to secure the championship. Historically, many series have been decided before reaching a game 7, but some have gone the distance, contributing to some of the most exciting moments in sports history.\nThe 2023 NBA Finals are being contested between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat. As of June 6th, the first two games have already been played with both teams winning one game each.\nIn the NHL, the Stanley Cup Finals are being played between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers. The Golden Knights currently lead the series 2-0.", "date_begin": "2023-06-06", "date_close": "2023-06-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 goes to a game 7.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-07\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.123], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.157], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.228], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.228], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.218], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.206], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.206], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.225], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.225], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.25], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.263], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.289], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.313], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.312], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.318], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.318], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.313], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.299], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.299], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.308], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.308], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.308], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.313], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.318], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.326], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.323], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.326], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.321], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.321], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.324], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.323], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.318], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.318], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.301], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.299], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.299], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.299], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.298], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.302], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.297], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.291], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.279], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.279], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.281], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.281], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.282], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.277], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.268], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.259], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.259], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.255], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.255], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.255], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.255], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.256], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.248], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.248], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.248], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.241], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.241], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.241], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.252], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.252], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.247], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.239], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.239], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.237], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.232], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.227], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.226], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.226], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.224], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.222], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.216], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.216], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.213], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.211], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.211], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.205], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.205], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.198], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.194], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.194], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.191], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.187], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.183], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.183], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.182], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.171], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.171]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.espn.com/nhl/boxscore/_/gameId/401550960\", \"https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/game-7-nba-playoff-records-stats-history/uzspg1tamcddem90lnpjehb1#:~:text=How%20many%20Game%207s%20have%20been%20played%20in%20the%20NBA,Cavaliers%20and%20Warriors%20in%202016.\", \"https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-stanley-cup-final-game-7-history/c-307799358\"]"}, {"question": "Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17372/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Sierra Leone's Presidential Elections are set for June 24, 2023, with the key contenders being current President Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People\u2019s Party (SLPP) and Samura Kamara of the All People\u2019s Congress (APC). Bio has formed a strategic alliance with Kandeh Yumkella of the National Grand Coalition (NGC), presenting Bio as the single candidate.\nTo win in the first round, a candidate must secure at least 55% of the total votes. Failing this, the election proceeds to a runoff between the top two candidates.", "date_begin": "2023-06-06", "date_close": "2023-06-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the June 24, 2023, Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone go to a second round. The question will resolve as No if any candidate secures 55% or more votes in the first round, thus preventing a runoff.\nThe resolution will be based on official announcements from the Electoral Commission for Sierra Leone (ECSL). If the ECSL announces that a runoff will be held, the question will resolve Yes. If the ECSL announces a winner after the first round of voting, the question will resolve No.\nIf the election is postponed or cancelled for any reason, the question will be annulled.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-08\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.68], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.61], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.66], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.66], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.665], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.63], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.63], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.642], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.621], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.621], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.594], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.588], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.586], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.584], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.584], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.576], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.572], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.579], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.557], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.554], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.548], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.546], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.546], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.546], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.547], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.547], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.547], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.545], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.548], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.549], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.549], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.568], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.568], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.568], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.567], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.553], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.553], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.552], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.552], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.553], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.553], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.566], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.567], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.565], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.561], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.562], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.563], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.567], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.57]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sierra-leone-president-wins-re-elecion-says-electoral-commission-2023-06-27/\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66030749?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_format=link&at_link_id=63BC6986-1509-11EE-8124-92C8D772BE90&at_link_origin=BBCAfrica&at_campaign_type=owned&at_medium=social&at_ptr_name=twitter&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_link_type=web_link&at_campaign=Social_Flow\", \"https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1673731018078167041\", \"https://www.thesierraleonetelegraph.com/sierra-leones-national-elections-watchdog-new-says-no-candidate-has-55-votes-needed-to-avoid-run-off/\", \"https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/66018125\", \"https://amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20230625-vote-tally-underway-in-sierra-leone-election\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/article/sierra-leone-election.html\", \"https://news.gallup.com/poll/507677/malaise-grips-sierra-leone-ahead-election.aspx?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=o_social&utm_term=gallupnews&utm_campaign=news-sierraleone062323\"]"}, {"question": "Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17376/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was taken down by the publisher. It is still available in the internet archive.\nThe interview included the following:\n\"2023: A stateful API \u2014 When you call the chat API today, you have to repeatedly pass through the same conversation history and pay for the same tokens again and again. In the future there will be a version of the API that remembers the conversation history.\"", "date_begin": "2023-06-07", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI releases an API to GPT-4 that \"remembers\" your history without explicitly passing it back in, and NO otherwise.\nIf unclear, we will defer to whether OpenAI calls the API \"stateful\", and this will be interpreted broadly.\n\"Releases\" here means available in a capacity where users can sign up. It may require an application or only allow a certain number of users, but members of the public must be able to at least request access with reasonable expectations of getting it soon.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-08\", 0.8], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.75], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.757], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.718], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.705], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.604], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.653], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.69], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.69], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.691], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.679], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.693], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.688], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.684], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.684], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.682], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.672], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.672], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.624], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.624], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.593], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.587], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.583], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.583], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.578], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.576], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.574], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.574], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.573], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.584], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.585], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.577], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.574], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.569], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.569], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.569], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.546], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.546], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.546], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.532], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.543], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.549], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.547], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.557], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.558], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.564], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.573], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.573], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.585], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.586]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://platform.openai.com/docs/assistants/how-it-works\", \"https://platform.openai.com/docs/assistants/overview\", \"https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/06/openai-launches-api-that-lets-developers-build-assistants-into-their-apps/\"]"}, {"question": "Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17378/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was taken down by the publisher. It is still available in the internet archive.\nThe interview included the following:\n\"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI\u2019s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.\n2023: Cheaper and faster GPT-4 \u2014 This is their top priority. In general, OpenAI\u2019s aim is to drive \u201cthe cost of intelligence\u201d down as far as possible and so they will work hard to continue to reduce the cost of the APIs over time.\"\nOpenAI has a history of dramatic price cuts, including a ~2/3 drop in GPT-3's price in August 2022, and a ~90% drop in GPT-3.5's price in March 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-06-07", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI announces a price of <= $0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context window GPT-4, and NO otherwise.\nIf the size of context windows change, this will use the lowest context window that is at least 8k tokens.\nIf pricing is no longer done by the number of prompt tokens, this question will resolve as ANNULLED. No pricing by sampled tokens or other methods will be considered.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-08\", 0.4], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.317], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.262], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.318], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.316], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.316], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.392], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.402], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.419], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.413], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.413], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.413], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.42], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.439], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.439], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.416], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.389], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.389], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.374], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.374], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.393], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.393], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.385], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.385], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.393], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.393], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.391], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.402], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.399], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.383], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.383], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.384], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.383], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.381], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.381], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.38], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.38], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.38], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.378], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.369], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.368], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.368], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.363], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.351], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.345], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.352], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.342], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.341], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.339], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.343], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.347], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.364], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.366], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.372], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.368], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.374], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.378], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.387], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.391], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.39]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://openai.com/pricing#gpt-4-turbo\", \"https://openai.com/pricing#gpt-4-turbo\"]"}, {"question": "Will OpenAI release a \"product\" after ChatGPT before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17379/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was taken down by the publisher. It is still available in the internet archive.\nThe interview included the following:\n\"Quite a few developers said they were nervous about building with the OpenAI APIs when OpenAI might end up releasing products that are competitive to them. Sam said that OpenAI would not release more products beyond ChatGPT. He said there was a history of great platform companies having a killer app and that ChatGPT would allow them to make the APIs better by being customers of their own product. The vision for ChatGPT is to be a super smart assistant for work but there will be a lot of other GPT use-cases that OpenAI won\u2019t touch.\"", "date_begin": "2023-06-07", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI launches a \"product\" that meets the following criteria, and NO otherwise:\nIt is not a version or rebrand of ChatGPT\nIt is a consumer product. For example, we count ChatGPT as a product because it is a web interface that has features like code highlighting, plugins, and back-and-forth chat. APIs (like Whisper), models (like DALLE-2), benchmarks (like Gym), or papers alone are not considered products.\nIt is generally available to the public. Betas qualify if they are open to the public. Restrictions are ok as long as most adults in at least the US can use it. (For example, an iOS-only app would qualify.)", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-08\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.307], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.268], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.264], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.322], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.338], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.338], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.308], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.299], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.272], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.277], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.269], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.269], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.281], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.278], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.278], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.269], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.264], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.264], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.263], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.263], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.266], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.267], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.267], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.264], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.258], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.253], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.248], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.251], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.251], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.251], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.254], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.254], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.247], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.247], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.251], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.251], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.251], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.248], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.243], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.241], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.227], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.227], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.217], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.212], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.207], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.207], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.207], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.204], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.203], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.202], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.201], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.199], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.197], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.191], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.191], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.187], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.184], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.181], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.177], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.174], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.173], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.166], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.168], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.167], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.164], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.163], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.159], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.142], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.142], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.142], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.138], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.136], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.128], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.128], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.128], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.128], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.128], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.125], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.124], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.124], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.122], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.122], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.117]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://openai.com/blog/introducing-gpts\"]"}, {"question": "Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17380/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was taken down by the publisher. It is still available in the internet archive.\nThe interview included the following:\n\"While Sam is calling for regulation of future models, he didn\u2019t think existing models were dangerous and thought it would be a big mistake to regulate or ban them. He reiterated his belief in the importance of open source and said that OpenAI was considering open-sourcing GPT-3. Part of the reason they hadn\u2019t open-sourced yet was that he was skeptical of how many individuals and companies would have the capability to host and serve large LLMs.\"", "date_begin": "2023-06-07", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if, by Dec 31, 2023, GPT-3 is freely available as open source software, and NO otherwise.\nThis means that both the weights of the model are open source, as well as the code for training the model. (It does not require the training data, or any code involved in creating or refining the training data, become open source.)", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.374], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.379], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.382], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.382], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.358], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.355], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.347], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.341], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.341], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.326], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.313], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.307], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.304], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.303], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.303], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.303], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.304], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.304], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.304], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.294], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.294], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.281], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.276], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.271], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.267], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.267], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.266], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.266], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.241], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.238], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.237], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.237], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.237], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.234], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.201], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.176], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.173], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.173], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.171], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.168], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.167], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.163], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.163], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.162], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.161], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.161], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.158], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.158], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.152], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.149], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.149], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.149], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.147], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.147], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.147], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.144], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.144], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.143], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.137], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.127], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.119], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.113], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.113], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.112], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.112], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.112], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.088]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/overview\"]"}, {"question": "Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17469/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its Application Programming Interface (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This led to an outcry from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.\nThe developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, leading to a coordinated protest involving more than 8,000 Reddit communities, including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.\nReddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has remained resolute regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's recent layoffs and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.\nBackground co-written with ChatGPT.", "date_begin": "2023-06-13", "date_close": "2023-06-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before July 1, 2023, Reddit announces changes or a delay of implementation to the pricing of its newly announced data API fees for apps that require higher usage. The pricing will be considered to have changed or delayed if Reddit announces any of the following:\nThat they will charge anything other than \"$0.24 per 1K API calls\" or an equivalent amount.\nAny change to their threshold for free API usage of \"100 queries per minute per OAuth client id if you are using OAuth authentication and 10 queries per minute if you are not using OAuth authentication\".\nThat the new pricing will take effect on a date later than July 1, 2023.\nOther rates or implementation dates reported to be negotiated with individual organizations do not qualify, this question is asking about the broader official fee structure policy. Metaculus will make the final determination as to whether an announcement qualifies and may annul the question in the event it is unclear whether an announcement meets these criteria.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.497], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.485], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.463], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.406], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.368], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.367], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.306], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.283], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.268], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.259], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.254], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.253], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.252], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.252], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.24], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.24], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.24], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.236], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.215], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.211], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.212], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.211], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.226], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.234], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.235], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.23], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.223], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.224], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.222], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.222], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.221], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.221], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.212], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.196], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.185], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.177], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.173], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.167], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.156], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.157], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.146], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.143], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.159], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.156], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.154], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.153], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.152], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.149], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.149], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.148], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.146], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.145], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.144], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.141], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.139], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.134], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.134], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.124], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.123], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.122], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.122], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.119], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.116], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.114], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.114], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.112], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.109], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.109], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.109], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.106], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.106], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.102], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.093], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.092], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.092], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.092], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.086], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.085], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.082], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.075]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/26/google-execs-hope-new-search-feature-will-help-amid-reddit-blackouts.html\", \"https://www.redditinc.com/blog/topic/product-design\", \"https://apolloapp.io/pro-ultra/\", \"https://www.macrumors.com/2023/06/15/reddit-threatens-to-remove-subreddit-moderators/\", \"https://media.tenor.com/nI27fD5MfzIAAAAd/scottpilgrim-window.gif\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17516/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The International Math Olympiad (IMO) is the oldest international science Olympiad for pre-college students. China's team has dominated the last few years. At last year's (63rd) IMO competition, China had the top score of 252 points achieving the maximum allowed score. South Korea came in second with 208 and the US team had 207 for 3rd.\nThe 2023 IMO will be held from July 2 to July 13, 2023 in Chiba, Japan.\nThe competition consists of 6 problems. The competition is held over two consecutive days with 3 problems each; each day the contestants have four-and-a-half hours to solve three problems. Each problem is worth 7 points for a maximum total score of 42 points. Calculators are not allowed. The problems chosen are from various areas of secondary school mathematics, broadly classifiable as geometry, number theory, algebra, and combinatorics. They require no knowledge of higher mathematics such as calculus and analysis, and solutions are often elementary. However, they are usually disguised so as to make the solutions difficult. The problems given in the IMO are largely designed to require creativity and the ability to solve problems quickly. Thus, the prominently featured problems are algebraic inequalities, complex numbers, and construction-oriented geometrical problems, though in recent years, the latter has not been as popular as before because of the algorithmic use of theorems like Muirhead's Inequality, and Complex/Analytic Bash to solve problems. (Wikipedia)", "date_begin": "2023-06-17", "date_close": "2023-07-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Education & Research", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes if China has the most points or is tied for the highest point total at the end of the 2023 International Math Olympiad, as reported on the IMO website.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-20\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.68], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.777], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.818], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.814], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.814], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.781], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.779], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.779], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.801], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.789], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.789], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.795], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.769], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.769], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.762], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.737], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.737], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.736], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.732], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.738], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.738], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.727], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.747], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.755], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.752], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.755], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.756], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.756], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.757], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.762], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.767], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.767], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.767], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.762], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.759], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.763], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.763], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.764], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.766], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.766]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.imo-official.org/results.aspx\"]"}, {"question": "Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17517/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On January 18, 2022, Microsoft, manufacturer of the Xbox video game console, announced an agreement to acquire Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, which would make Microsoft the 3rd largest video game publisher in the world, behind Tencent and Sony. Activision Blizzard's key franchises are Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Overwatch League, Diablo, Hearthstone, and Candy Crush.\nAs of June 2023, the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard faces delays and uncertainties. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a lawsuit on June 12, 2023, to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, which led to a federal judge temporarily blocking the $69 billion purchase to allow more time for an antitrust review. This development is the latest in a series of antitrust challenges to the merger.\nThis is the link to the merger agreement, signed by Microsoft and Activision Blizzard.", "date_begin": "2023-06-18", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes based on a Microsoft press release stating that it has acquired Activision Blizzard. It resolves as No immediately upon an announcement by Microsoft that the acquisition deal has been terminated. Otherwise if no deal has been completed by December 31, 2023, this resolves as No.\nFine Print\nThe merger contract", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-01\", 0.22], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.407], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.368], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.414], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.418], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.418], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.444], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.459], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.459], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.478], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.508], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.508], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.518], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.521], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.521], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.497], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.491], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.506], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.502], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.498], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.502], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.502], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.513], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.678], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.707], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.744], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.773], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.786], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.789], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.794], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.796], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.798], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.811], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.811], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.816], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.824], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.829], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.828], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.828], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.831], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.839], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.839], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.841], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.841], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.843], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.843], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.845], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.846], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.853], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.853], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.853], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.853], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.856], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.856], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.856], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.854], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.852], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.854], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.854], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.854], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.854], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.854], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.854], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.855], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.855], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.858], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.858], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.86], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.861], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.861], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.863], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.862], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.862], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.863], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.864], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.866], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.866], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.868], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.869], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.872], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.872], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.873], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.873], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.875]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/satyanadella/status/1712816639404916947\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-13/microsoft-completes-69-billion-activision-purchase?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&leadSource=uverify%20wall\", \"https://microsoft.gcs-web.com/static-files/c341aabc-d0d9-4608-89e1-906895fd0e45\", \"https://www.streetinsider.com/Mergers+and+Acquisitions/Activision+Blizzard+(ATVI)+Said+It+Completed+Merger+With+Microsoft+(MSFT)/22270090.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/uk-antitrust-regulator-clears-microsofts-acquisition-activision-2023-10-13/\", \"https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/6/23905946/microsoft-activision-blizzard-deal-finalization-timing-cma\", \"https://apnews.com/article/microsoft-activision-deal-uk-regulator-2a6d87ca444e566035e99714944a8fa5?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-06/microsoft-xbox-chief-confident-about-closing-activision-deal?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-bloomberguk&utm_content=bloomberguk&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&leadSource=uverify%20wall\", \"https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/970333/CMA18_2021version-.pdf\", \"https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2023/08/21/microsoft-activision-restructure-acquisition/\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/ba6a13de-5318-4630-b8f8-9680d4529642\", \"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/us-ftc-official-withdraws-case-against-microsoft-activision-deal-internal-agency-judge-3644071\", \"https://twitter.com/BradSmi/status/1681650463022931968\", \"https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/16/23792215/sony-microsoft-call-of-duty-cod-deal-signed\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-13/microsoft-activision-weigh-sale-of-some-uk-cloud-gaming-rights?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/uks-cma-says-new-restructured-microsoft-activision-deal-could-require-new-probe-2023-07-12/\", \"https://twitter.com/BradSmi/status/1678796043545350144\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/11/business/microsoft-activision-deal-ftc.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20230711&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta&regi_id=69573273&segment_id=139014&user_id=bbdc542f0c2ef642f2820af0e3bfa40b\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?status=active&has_group=false&type=forecast&forecast_type=date_range&order_by=-activity&main-feed=true\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9797/will-microsoft-acquire-activision-blizzard/\", \"https://twitter.com/FOSSpatents/status/1670404951913250816\"]"}, {"question": "Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17530/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Voicebox is a generative AI model for speech developed by Meta AI. The model is unique in its ability to generalize to speech-generation tasks it was not specifically trained to accomplish. The model can synthesize speech across six languages, perform noise removal, content editing, style conversion, and diverse sample generation. Voicebox uses a method called Flow Matching, which significantly improves upon diffusion models and outperforms the current state of the art English model, VALL-E, on zero-shot text-to-speech.\nDespite its potential, Meta has decided not to make the Voicebox model or code publicly available \"because of the potential risks of misuse\". However, in March 2023, Meta's large language model, LLaMA, was leaked online within a week of it's release.", "date_begin": "2023-06-20", "date_close": "2023-06-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if by July 1, 2023, credible media or tech industry reports or the official statements from Meta AI confirm that the Voicebox AI model or its code has been made publicly available, through a leak, hack, or something similar. The final determination of resolution will be made by Metaculus admins based on the evidence available at the time of resolution.\nHere \"publicly available\" means some people not affiliated with Meta or Meta's partners can access Voicebox. Need not be legal access if access is attained due to a leak, as long as that access is widely available.\nFine Print\nIf the public thing is not called \"Voicebox\" but admins conclude it is Voicebox or directly derived from it, this still resolves positively.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-21\", 0.25], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.217], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.282], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.225], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.217], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.213], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.233], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.228], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.224], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.216], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.228], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.233], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.219], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.196], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.196], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.199], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.193], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.193], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.211], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.213], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.213], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.218], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.215], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.212], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.209], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.209], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.209], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.208], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.21], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.21], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.213], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.209], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.209], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.207], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.204], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.202], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.199], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.199], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.194], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.194], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.186], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.184], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.184], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.179], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.179], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.177], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.17], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.169], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.159], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.159], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.157], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.157], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.156], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.154], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.154], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.154], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.151], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.149], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.148], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.151], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.145], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.14], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.137], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.137], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.128], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.127], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.127], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.126], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.121], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.121], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.117], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.113], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.108], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.104], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.112], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.112], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.111], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.109], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.108], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.106], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.104], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.103], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.103], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.103], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.101], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.097], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.096], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.094], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.094], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.092]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17533/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Tesla Inc., the renowned electric vehicle (EV) maker, has seen a steady uptrend in its stock value, with a multi-week streak resulting in a 131% increase in share value within the year 2023. This upward surge has elevated the company's market capitalization to over $850 billion.\nHowever, this current valuation still falls short of Tesla's all-time high in 2021, when the company hit a staggering market cap of over $1.2 trillion.", "date_begin": "2023-06-20", "date_close": "2023-06-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the total market capitalization of Tesla (TSLA) is greater than $1 trillion (USD) at any time between June 20, 2023 to July 1, 2023.\nData for market capitalization will come from CompaniesMarketCap. If they do not report data for this full period, other credible sources like YahooFinance may be used.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-22\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.151], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.139], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.112], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.103], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.098], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.092], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.077], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.077], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.068], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.067], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.068], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.068], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.057], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.059], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.062], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.061], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.061], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.082], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.082], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.082], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.072], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.066], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.066], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.066], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.063], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.062], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.058], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.057], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.053], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.053], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.053], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.051], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.049], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.046], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.051], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.047], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.044], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.044], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.043], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.043], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.043], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.042], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.042], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.041], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.041], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.039], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.038], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.038], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.037], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.037], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.036], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.032], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.032], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.027], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.027], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.027], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.026], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.026], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.027], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.028], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.028], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.028], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.031], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.028], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.026], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.024], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.024], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.024], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.024], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.024], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.024], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.024], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.023], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.023], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.023]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/\", \"https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-elon-musk-ford-gm-wall-street-roth-2023-6\", \"https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-elon-musk-overvalued-goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-2023-6\", \"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-downgrade-goldman-sachs-ev-valuation-concerns-tsla-2023-6\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/22/longtime-tesla-bull-adam-jonas-downgrades-the-electric-vehicle-maker-cites-high-valuation-after-rally.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17547/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "From Wikipedia: On June 18, 2023, the Titan, a submersible operated by OceanGate Expeditions, went missing in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Newfoundland in Canada. The submersible, designed to carry five people, was carrying an expedition of tourists to view the wreckage of RMS Titanic.", "date_begin": "2023-06-21", "date_close": "2023-06-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if two credible media reports indicate the 'Titan' submersible has been recovered, intact, by noon ET on Thursday, June 22.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.227], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.238], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.226], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.226], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.169], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.136], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.086], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.079], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.073], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.073], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.071], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.087], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.086], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.086], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.086], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.073], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.063], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.063], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.084], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.076], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.074], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.074], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.073], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.099], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.092], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.091], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.086], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.081], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.067], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.069], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.066], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.063], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.062], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.059], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.059], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.059], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.059], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.059], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.059], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.058], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.057], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.057], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.057], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.057], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.057], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.054], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.054], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.054], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.053], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.053], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.052], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.052], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.052], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.051], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.051], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.049], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.047], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.047], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.046], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.046], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.046], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.046], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.046], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.043], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.042], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.042], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.042], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.041], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.041], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.041], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.041]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/BreakingNews/status/1671912364302557185?s=19\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17554/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine both countries agreed to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Wikipedia describes as follows:\nThe Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [2022] led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. Additionally Russia temporarily halted its grain exports, further exacerbating the situation. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia weaponizing food supplies. To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, valid for a period of 120 days. The July agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis. A joint coordination and inspection center was set up in Turkey, with the UN serving as secretariat.\n. . .\nThe original agreement was set to expire on 19 November 2022. Russia suspended its participation in the agreement for several days due to a drone attack on Russian naval ships elsewhere in the Black Sea, but rejoined following mediation. On 17 November 2022, the UN and Ukraine announced that the agreement had been extended for a further 120 days. In March 2023, Turkey and the UN announced that they secured a second extension for at least another 60 days. In May 2023, the deal was once again extended for 60 days, expiring on 18 July.\nAs July 18th approaches some have speculated on the continuation of the deal:\nRussia is 99.9% certain to quit a UN-brokered deal on the safe wartime passage of Black Sea grain next month because it no longer needs Ukrainian ports to export ammonia, a senior Ukrainian diplomat said.\n. . .\nMoscow has threatened not to extend the agreement beyond 18 July unless a series of demands, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertiliser exports, are met.\nThe Black Sea export deal also allows for the safe export of ammonia - an important ingredient in nitrate fertiliser - but none has been shipped under the initiative.\nRussia has been pushing for the resumption of ammonia supplies via a pipeline through Ukraine to the Black Sea port of Odesa that has lain idle since last year, Reuters reports.\nOlha Trofimtseva, Ukraine\u2019s foreign ministry ambassador at large, said Russian ammonia producer Uralchem had found an alternative route and does not need to export ammonia via Odesa.\n\u201cThe grain corridor. 99.9% that Russia will leave it in July,\u201d Trofimtseva was reported to have said on Telegram late on Wednesday.", "date_begin": "2023-06-22", "date_close": "2023-07-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before July 19, 2023, credible sources report that the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended beyond the current end date of July 18, 2023. To qualify, both Ukraine and Russia must agree to the extension; if it is reported that the deal has been extended but either Ukraine or Russia is no longer a party to the agreement then the question will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThis question will still resolve as Yes even if the extension is reported to alter the original terms, so long as credible sources refer to the Black Sea Grain Initiative as being extended. If there are conflicting reports or statements Metaculus will rely primarily on official statements from the United Nations and may resolve the question as Ambiguous if the situation is unclear.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-04\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.362], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.379], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.374], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.362], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.364], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.371], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.391], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.403], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.404], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.423], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.433], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.449], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.461], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.46], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.462], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.467], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.483], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.492], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.507], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.512], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.512], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.516], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.516], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.515], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.521], 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\"https://www.ft.com/content/c0c62c3c-54fa-49c7-9d5c-53deb91bf989\", \"https://ria.ru/20230717/zerno-1884581261.html\", \"https://twitter.com/financialjuice?s=21&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jul/17/russia-ukraine-war-live-crimean-bridge-emergency-traffic-stops-explosion\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1680689990576009216\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/world/europe/black-sea-grain-deal-deadline-looms.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/un-chief-sends-putin-proposal-keep-black-sea-grain-deal-alive-2023-07-12/\", \"https://www.trtworld.com/turkiye/president-erdogan-voices-hope-for-black-sea-grain-deal-extension-14039405\", \"https://www.interfax.ru/russia/911672\", \"https://twitter.com/Sputnik_India/status/1679863206771060738\", \"https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2023/07/14/erdogan-in-agreement-with-putin-that-grain-deal-should-be-extended\", \"https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1679839793029562368\", \"http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71667\", \"https://twitter.com/financialjuice?s=21&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17554/black-sea-grain-deal-extended-in-july-2023/#comment-126878\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/un-chief-sends-putin-proposal-keep-black-sea-grain-deal-alive-2023-07-12/\", \"https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1679179338741170198?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1679164763459272713?s=20\", \"https://www.politico.eu/article/moscow-russia-ukraine-war-threatens-to-walk-away-from-grain-deal-if-export-requests-arent-met/\", \"https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1678775154321813510?s=20\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66160319\", \"https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1678347625064546306\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/putin-erdogan-talks-only-hope-black-sea-grain-deal-extension-ria-2023-07-10/\", \"https://www.rt.com/news/579406-kremlin-kiev-ankara-deal/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/zelenskiy-erdogan-discuss-grain-deal-prisoner-swaps-turkish-official-2023-07-07/\", \"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/07/turkeys-erdogan-hosts-zelenskyy-says-ukraine-deserves-be-nato-member\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/un-aid-chief-russia-dont-chuck-away-black-sea-grain-deal-2023-07-07/\", \"https://tass.com/world/1643801?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/liveblog/2023/7/7/ukraine-russia-live-news-zelenskyy-set-to-visit-turkey-for-talks\", \"https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/zelenskyy-to-visit-turkiye-to-discuss-developments-grain-deal\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Sabah\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-no-final-decision-yet-black-sea-grain-deal-2023-07-05/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative\", \"https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-black-sea-grain-agreement-failure-russian-demands/32399463.html\", \"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/20/debt-ceiling-deadline-defense-biden-mccarthy-00098034\", \"https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1676206465432911872\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/question-writing/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17569/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On 23 June 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged that soldiers of the Russian Ministry of Defense were shelling his positions. Prigozhin promised to take revenge on the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin said the \"evil\" in the military leadership must be stopped and vowed to \"March for Justice\". (Wikipedia)\nSome Russia observers described Prigozhin's actions as an armed mutiny. Russian security services called for Prigozhin's arrest.", "date_begin": "2023-06-24", "date_close": "2023-06-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if, on June 30 at 7pm ET, Wikipedia lists Yevgeny Prigozhin as the primary active leader of the Wagner Group AND Prigozhin is not in Russian custody.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-24\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.66], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.677], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.674], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.691], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.624], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.621], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.605], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.586], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.557], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.564], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.54], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.537], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.537], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.523], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.532], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.526], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.522], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.518], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.521], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.521], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.529], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.532], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.538], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.538], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.539], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.542], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.542], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.537], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.546], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.546], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.575], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.575], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.585], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.618], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.626], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.626], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.622], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.626], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.632], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.634], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.636], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.64], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.651], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.651], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.679], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.686], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.691], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.705], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.716], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.718], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.722], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.718], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.719], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.719], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.72], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.721], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.723], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.727], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.728], 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"[\"https://www.nbcnews.com/video/prigozhin-appears-in-wagner-mercenary-group-recruitment-video-191318597657\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66599733\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1674526629186478081\", \"https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1674372478582558720\", \"https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1674154936978886658\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-moves-to-seize-control-of-wagners-global-empire-26d49286?redirect=amp\", \"https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1673782283654897664\", \"https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1673812135191748608\", \"https://www.barrons.com/news/lukashenko-says-told-putin-not-to-kill-wagner-chief-2764f92e?\", \"https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1673691962916872194\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE&ab_channel=SkyNews\", \"https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1673408879919525892\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/8c247cb9-c14b-4fd6-94d6-300655c35c1e\", \"https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673397136069632023\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673341974882004994\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673326118659579907\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17569/prigozhin-leads-wagner-on-june-30-2023/#comment-125936\", \"https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1673318133623341058\", \"https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1673257290349068295\", \"https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18116883?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share\", \"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/\", \"https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1672487248699305987\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672700070553059331?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1672693233011286016\", \"https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672657882117013504\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17571/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On 23 June 2023, the Russian private military company known as the Wagner Group initiated an armed conflict with the Russian Armed Forces, following increasing tensions between the organization's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). Wagner personnel have said that corruption and incompetency in the MoD has squandered progress after initial successes in the invasion of Ukraine, while Russian president Vladimir Putin and other officials have denounced the groups' attacks as treasonous acts of opportunism and seizure of power.\nPrigozhin described the rebellion as revenge for what he said was an attack on his forces by the ministry. He dismissed the Russian government's justification for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, blamed the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu for Russian military failures, and accused him of conducting the war for the benefit of Russian elites. Prigozhin's forces took Rostov-on-Don with its key military headquarters, and reportedly advanced towards Voronezh, and then Lipetsk, in the direction of Moscow.\nIn response, the Federal Security Service (FSB) opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for \"inciting an armed revolt\". In a televised address, President Putin called Wagner's actions 'treason' and vowed to suppress the mutiny\nPutin vowed to retain control yet additionally lamented a \"mortal blow\". (Wikipedia)\nFrom Jennifer Caferella with The Institute for the Study of War on Twitter:\nEarly SITREP as of approx 1000 EDT on June 24\n\n-Wagner controls #Rostov\n\n-#Wagner advancing north past Voronezh which they seem to have bypassed at least partially. En route to #Moscow\n\n-No major confirmed ground clashes yet. Some unconfirmed reports of airstrikes & at least one\u2026\n\u2014 Jennifer Cafarella (@JennyCafarella) June 24, 2023", "date_begin": "2023-06-24", "date_close": "2023-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if, before 8pm ET on June 30, 2023, any of the following sources state that the Wagner Group, or forces aligned with the Wagner Group, control any part of Moscow:\nThe Economist\nThe New York Times\nReuters\nThe Associated Press\nThe Guardian\nThe BBC\nAl Jazeera\nSouth China Morning Post\nThe Institute for the Study of War\nInternational Crisis Group\nFine Print\nFor the purposes of this question, \"any part of Moscow\" means an area equivalent to 1 city block.\nIf there are reports of Wagner control of part of Moscow, the question resolves Yes unless those reports specifically state that the area of control is obviously smaller than a city block (e.g. a single building). For instance, if credible reports state Wagner forces are cornered in a single building, the question does not resolve Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-24\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.586], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.564], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.314], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.254], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.209], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.188], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.174], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.171], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.167], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.146], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.134], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.13], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.126], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.106], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.093], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.083], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.079], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.076], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.069], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.067], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.065], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.066], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.065], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.062], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.061], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.058], 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[\"2023-06-28\", 0.036], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.034], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.033]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673607146598985728?s=20\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65871232\", \"https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/031/360/75a.png\", \"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/\", \"https://news.sky.com/video/russia-creates-roadblocks-amid-advance-of-wagner-rebel-troops-12909009\", \"https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1672693233011286016\", \"https://twitter.com/rprose/status/1672693903441444866?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672657882117013504\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672653544439136260\", \"https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1672640399553462272?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672643357590409217\", \"https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1672641810789724160\", \"https://twitter.com/Kasmicro/status/1672647001417351174\"]"}, {"question": "Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17580/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, announced on Saturday, June 24th, that his mercenaries will suspend their advance towards Moscow and return to Ukraine.\nAlexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a firm supporter of President Vladimir Putin, asserted his role in brokering this ceasefire.", "date_begin": "2023-06-24", "date_close": "2023-06-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves No if Yevgeny Prigozhin publicly states any of the following:\nThat Wagner forces will again mobilize within Russia with the goal of enacting change within Russian government.\nAnything equivalent to \"the deal is off\"\nThe question also resolves No based on credible reports of Wagner Group mobilizations within Russia with a goal of enacting change within a Russian governmental entity.\nIf none of the above happen before 8pm ET on June 30, 2023, the question resolves Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-24\", 0.82], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.599], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.606], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.663], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.708], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.728], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.728], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.761], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.779], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.779], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.779], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.802], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.803], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.808], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.809], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.818], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.822], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.823], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.831], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.83], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.831], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.833], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.833], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.833], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.836], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.842], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.84], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.841], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.841], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.839], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.838], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.837], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.844], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.846], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.835], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.835], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.831], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.832], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.832], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.823], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.826], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.827], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.826], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.827], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.826], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.827], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.831], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.834], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.837], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.847], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.854], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.854], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.856], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.861], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.862], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.864], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.867], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.866], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.867], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.87], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.87], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.871], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.872], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.874], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.872], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.872], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.877], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.88], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.883], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.886], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.887], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.889], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.89], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.891], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.891], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.891], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.892], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.893], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.893], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.894], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.894], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.894], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.895], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.896], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.895], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.897], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.897], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.897], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.898], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.899], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.902], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.902], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.904], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.904], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.906], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.907], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.907], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.911]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-27-2023\", \"https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673607146598985728?s=20\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/06/27/1184462527/russia-drops-charges-against-prigozhin-and-others-who-took-part-in-brief-rebelli\", \"https://www.rt.com/russia/578779-wagner-criminal-investigation-fsb/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE&ab_channel=SkyNews\", \"https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1673408879919525892\", \"https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673397136069632023\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/8c247cb9-c14b-4fd6-94d6-300655c35c1e\", \"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/)\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673341974882004994\", \"https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1673257290349068295\", \"https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18116883?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share\", \"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17581/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Twitter & Facebook have been abuzz regarding the interaction that occurred between the two high-profile tech billionaires - Elon Musk & Mark Zuckerberg.\nIt seems that both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have agreed to fight each other in a cage match, in not so many words at least, by the following exchange:\nMusk posted a message on his social media platform Twitter that he was \"up for a cage fight\" with Zuckerberg.\nZuckerberg, owner of Facebook and Instagram parent company Meta, then posted a screenshot of Musk's tweet, saying \"send me location\".\"\nMany news outlets have been discussing the two billionaires' competitive history with one another, their fighting abilities and strengths, and who has a better chance of winning. Social media is also in a frenzy of speculation regarding when (and if) the cage match will occur, and which of the two will win.", "date_begin": "2023-06-25", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes if a publicly-evident cage match occurs directly between Elon Musk & Mark Zuckerberg, before January 1, 2024.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-07\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.344], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.344], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.218], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.167], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.148], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.124], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.124], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.124], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.114], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.101], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.104], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.104], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.106], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.102], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.102], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.102], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.099], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.099], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.099], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.097], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.097], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.124], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.126], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.124], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.124], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.126], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.149], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.142], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.131], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.119], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.117], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.116], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.116], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.077], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.077]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1720705632033026102\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk_vs._Mark_Zuckerberg\", \"https://www.mmafighting.com/2023/8/13/23830500/mark-zuckerberg-its-time-to-move-on-from-potential-fight-with-elon-musk\", \"https://nypost.com/2023/06/30/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-can-fight-at-colosseum-italian-govt/\", \"https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1688377445957652480\", \"https://www.threads.net/@zuck/post/CvnechDSJeC?hl=en\", \"https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1688091377823895552\", \"https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1688087050527113216\", \"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2952\"]"}, {"question": "Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17584/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "A political rally on 14 October 2023 organised by Chain of Freedom Scotland aims to form a human chain spanning the width of Scotland, following the route of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Will this aim be achieved?\nThe rally is inspired by Baltic Way, a similar event that took place in 1989 and saw approximately 2 million people join hands in a continuous human chain running 430 miles across the Baltic States, which at the time were occupied by the Soviet Union.\nThe chain aims to be continuous with the exception that roads will not be blocked:\nThe Chain of Freedom will NOT close down any roads, nor cross any roads, which will disrupt the public. Should there be a road in your section. The Chain will stop at one side and then restart at the other.\nThe event organizers estimate that one person per meter is needed, and the Forth and Clyde canal is roughly 56 kilometers in length, meaning that roughly 56,000 people would to attend to complete the chain. A map of the planned route is here.", "date_begin": "2023-06-25", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before October 16, credible sources report that a \"continuous\" or \"nearly continuous\" human chain stretched across the length of the Forth and Clyde canal on October 14, 2023, with sufficient attendance for the chain to be unbroken for the full length or nearly the full length, with the exception of openings for roads.\nFine Print\nIf reports are unclear or sources conflict on whether the chain is at least \"nearly continuous\", the question will resolve as Yes if attendance is estimated to be 50,000 people or more. Where a range of attendance estimates is provided the median will be used.\nIn the event of conflicting reports or attendance estimates, Metaculus will make a determination of whether descriptions from credible sources meet these criteria, or resolve the question as Ambiguous.\nThis question will primarily rely on characterizations from credible sources, but the frequent use of flags, ropes, chains, or other objects to stretch between large gaps in humans will generally be considered to not count. For example, language like \"made nearly continuous through the use of numerous long flags\" will not qualify.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.501], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.532], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.514], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.519], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.527], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.517], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.506], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.503], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.493], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.484], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.494], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.498], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.487], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.477], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.478], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.483], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.486], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.476], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.487], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.491], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.49], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.487], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.481], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.478], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.478], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.476], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.463], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.463], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.458], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.458], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.439], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.434], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.429], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.401], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.391], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.386], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.391], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.391], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.382], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.383], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.38], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.381], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.376], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.376], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.371], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.368], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.359], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.361], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.361], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.357], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.356], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.354], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.352], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.352], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.352], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.352], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.354], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.352], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.346], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.344], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.344], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.348], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.343], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.343], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.344], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.343], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.343], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.336], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.331], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.329], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.319], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.318], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.313], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.311], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.311], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.306], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/news/people/in-pictures-crowds-turn-out-to-take-part-in-chain-of-freedom-at-falkirk-wheel-4373295\", \"https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/scottish-news/paltry-turnout-chain-freedom-large-31188534\", \"https://www.thenational.scot/news/23856095.chain-freedom-gives-yes-movement-boost-positive-energy/\", \"https://twitter.com/craigie_55/status/1713143848279343615\", \"https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/scottish-news/paltry-turnout-chain-freedom-large-31188534\", \"https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/scottish-news/paltry-turnout-chain-freedom-large-31188534\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17592/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Investopedia describes the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as follows:\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a stock market index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned blue-chip companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones is named after Charles Dow, who created the index in 1896 along with his business partner, Edward Jones. Also referred to as the Dow 30, the index is considered to be a gauge of the broader U.S. economy. . . . The DJIA launched in 1896 with just 12 companies, primarily in the industrial sector. They included railroads, cotton, gas, sugar, tobacco, and oil. The index grew to 30 components by 1928. Since then, it's changed many times\u2014the very first came three months after the 30-component index launched. The first large-scale change was in 1932 when eight stocks in the Dow were replaced.\nThe Dow is reevaluated on a regular basis. Companies are replaced when they no longer meet the index's listing criteria with those that do. Over time, the index became a bellwether of the U.S. economy, reflecting economic changes. For example, U.S. Steel was removed from the index in 1991 and replaced by building material company Martin Marietta.\nDJIA milestones are a popular subject of reports, particularly in increments of $5,000. The DJIA first hit $35,000 in July of 2021 but declined in early 2022 as markets fell amid high inflation and rising federal funds rates. The DJIA has not reached $35,000 since early 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-06-25", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after July 3, 2023 and before August 1, 2023, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closes at or above $35,000 according to Yahoo Finance.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-04\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.536], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.499], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.498], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.484], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.487], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.463], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.451], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.449], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.449], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.453], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.455], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.454], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.444], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.437], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.432], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.423], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.414], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.413], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.396], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.393], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.387], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.382], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.374], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.361], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.356], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.354], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.349], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.346], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.34], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.337], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.334], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.334], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.328], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.321], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.321], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.317], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.316], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.316], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.306], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.309], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.314], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.313], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.313], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.328], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.334], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.342], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.346], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.345], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.346], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.345], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.348], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.347], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.348], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.356], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.361], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.361], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.362], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.362], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.361], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.361], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.361], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.367], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.373], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.383], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.383], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.383], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.385], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.536], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.55], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.567], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.654]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://two-wrongs.com/forecasting-mistakes-dow-jones-random-walk-barrier\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14853/virginia-new-mpox-cases-in-q2-2023/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17592/dow-jones-reaches-35k-before-august-2023/\", \"https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/download-data?startDate=7/1/2022&endDate=07/17/2023\", \"https://mlsdev.com/blog/technology-in-warehousing\", \"https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1679105975742001152?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/options?date=1690502400\", \"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DJIA\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/question-writing/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17655/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "In late June 2023, Israel's public broadcasting network reported that the Palestinian Authority may need to declare bankruptcy. Representatives of the Palestinian Authority disputed this claim.", "date_begin": "2023-06-29", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2024, reputable sources report the Palestinian Authority is bankrupt.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-07\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.138], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.141], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.141], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.117], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.118], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.127], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.123], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.123], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.124], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.124], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.124], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.119], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.112], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.112], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.117], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.114], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.112], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.111], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.111], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.104], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.069]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-deduct-funds-palestinians-pay-down-electricity-debt-2023-09-05/\"]"}, {"question": "Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17660/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Hurricane season in Virginia runs from June 1 to November 30. Virginia uses a system known as \"Know Your Zone\" featuring four zones for at-risk areas which can be used for evacuation orders:\n\u201cKnow Your Zone\u201d serves roughly 1.25 million residents who live in Coastal Virginia, the region of the state most vulnerable to hurricanes and other tropical storms. Twenty-three localities participate in the tiered evacuation zones. Zones were developed in close coordination with local emergency managers throughout Hampton Roads, the Northern Neck, the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore based on the most up-to-date engineering data for the region.\nZones are designated A through D. Zones provide residents with clarity on whether they should evacuate in an emergency or shelter at home, based on their physical street address and the nature of the emergency event. When a serious storm is expected to threaten or impact Virginia\u2019s coastal regions, state and local emergency agencies will work with local news media outlets, as well as social media channels, that will then broadcast and publish evacuation directives to the public.\n. . .\nWhen a storm is approaching, emergency managers will determine which zones are most at risk considering the intensity, path, speed, tides and other meteorological factors. Emergency managers at the state and local level will work with local media and use social media and other tools to notify residents of impacted zones what they should do to stay safe.\nDepending on the emergency, being safe might mean staying at home, a short trip to higher ground, or traveling to a different region of the state.\nThe Governor, Virginia Emergency Management Officials, and Local Governments may order a mandatory evacuation.", "date_begin": "2023-06-29", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, the government of Virginia (either state or local) orders a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone.\nFine Print\nA mandatory evacuation need not be for an entire zone, a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone for a city or other region would also be sufficient to resolve as Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-30\", 0.525], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.308], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.287], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.287], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.298], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.302], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.302], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.309], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.308], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.306], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.323], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.323], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.322], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.331], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.338], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.339], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.334], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.344], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.341], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.316], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.322], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.313], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.313], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.344], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.344], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.324], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.324], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.313], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.302], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.303], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.306], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.308], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.303], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.319], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.319], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.302], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.308], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.304], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.304], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.296], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.291], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.288], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.273], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.303], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.307], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.307], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.246], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.242], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.241], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.232], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.219], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.221], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.214], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.214], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.21], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.206], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.199], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.192], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.192], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.192], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.192], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.191], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.191], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.211], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.196], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.196], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.195], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.191], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.191], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.191], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.186], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.181], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.177], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.173], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.173], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.173], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.173]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/2023/september/name-1014725-en.html\", \"https://richmond.com/news/local/government-politics/are-virginias-mandatory-hurricane-evacuations-really-mandatory/article_06c1a13c-9384-5695-b2e1-ab4aa2713627.html\", \"https://www.nbc12.com/2019/09/05/evacuations-issued-portions-va-dorian-approaches/\", \"https://www.pilotonline.com/2019/09/06/virginia-beach-orders-mandatory-evacuations-for-sandbridge-voluntary-evacuations-for-zone-a/\", \"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/\"]"}, {"question": "Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17701/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "General Sergei Surovikin, head of the Russian aerospace forces and former commander of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, has recently been detained amid speculation about loyalty and divisions within the country's leadership. Surovikin was reportedly aware in advance of the uprising led by mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin against top defense leaders. Following the uprising, Surovikin's name emerged in connection with the Wagner Group forces' seizure of Russia's southern regional military headquarters and their movement towards Moscow.", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-07-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes if there are official announcements, credible reports, or statements from authoritative sources\u2014before July 12, 2023\u2014confirming that General Sergei Surovikin is no longer the Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces. It will also resolve Yes if a new Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces is appointed.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-04\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.292], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.301], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.314], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.311], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.311], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.292], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.281], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.267], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.245], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.234], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.229], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.228], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.226], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.223], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.211], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.201], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.201], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.199], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.195], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.192], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.187], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.183], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.181], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.178], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.173], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.159], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.158], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.156], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.155], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.151], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.152], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.151], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.146], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.144], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.141], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.134], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.133], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.132], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.132], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.131], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.131], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.128], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.124], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.121], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.113], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.109], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.109], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.109], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.109], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.107], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.106], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.106], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.104], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.102], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.099], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.098], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.097], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.087], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.083], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.082], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.079], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.077], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.069], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.066], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.063], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.062], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.062], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.062], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.058]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17701/will-surovikin-be-stripped-of-command/#comment-131170\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/23/russia-removes-sergei-surovikin-as-head-of-aerospace-forces\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66183656\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-detained-several-senior-military-officers-in-wake-of-wagner-mutiny-35a696e4\", \"https://t.me/shot_shot/54031\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/world/europe/sergei-surovikin-russian-general-missing.html\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Aerospace_Forces\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/russian-general-surovikin-reportedly-released-084600703.html\", \"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12282715/General-Armageddon-absent-meeting-hes-interrogated-Wagner-uprising.html\", \"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/search.html?s=&authornamef=Will+Stewart\", \"https://asiatimes.com/2023/07/signs-of-a-top-rank-military-purge-in-russia/\", \"https://t.me/rybar/49102\", \"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12279617/Furious-Vladimir-Putin-sacks-general-charge-war-against-Ukraine.html\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html\", \"https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/28/russian-general-arrested-following-wagner-mutiny-mt-russian-a81685\", \"https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1673885227599495168\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/30/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-stephen-kotkin.html)\"]"}, {"question": "Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17725/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Tour de France is one of the most prestigious and iconic cycling races in the world, attracting top cyclists from around the globe.\nThe yellow jersey, or maillot jaune, is worn by the leader of the general classification, representing the cyclist with the lowest cumulative time. It is a coveted symbol of excellence and serves as a significant milestone in the race.\nStage 9 will be ridden on Sunday, July 9th and is a mountain climbing stage (on a volcano!) that hasn't been part of the Tour since 1988. The following day will be the first rest day of the Tour.", "date_begin": "2023-07-05", "date_close": "2023-07-09", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-09", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes if the cyclist who wins stage 9 of the 2023 Tour de France is also ranked first in the General Individual Rankings after stage 9.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-07\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.304], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.353], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.342], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.342], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.353], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.317], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.28], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.274], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.288], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.289], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.289], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.311], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.292], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.293], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.305], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.297], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.284], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.283], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.277], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.277], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.283], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.283], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.289], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.291], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.311], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.292], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.292], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.293], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.293], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.288], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.286], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.29], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.286], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.288], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.288], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.298], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.298], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.296], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.286], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.291], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.302], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.302], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.293], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.291], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.313], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.313], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.313], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.312], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.297], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.306], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.318], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.308], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.309], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.305], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.305], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.303], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.303], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.307], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.309], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.305], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.301], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.309], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.309], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.317], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.317], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.324], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.324], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.331], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.324], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.324], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.324], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.328], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.326], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.326], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.324], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.322], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.327], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.327], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.326]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/live/2023/jul/09/tour-de-france-2023-stage-nine-updates-on-race-to-to-puy-de-dome-live\", \"https://firstcycling.com/race.php?r=17&y=2023&e=all)\", \"https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-8\"]"}, {"question": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17742/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Previous Questions on Metaculus\nWill Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?\nWill Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?\nOn February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve rapidly taking the capital, deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east, where conditions were more favorable. This offensive also bogged down quickly, and Russia's offensive ambitions narrowed into the summer until they were focused around the town of Bakhmut, where operations were being conducted largely by the \"Wagner Group,\" a Russian paramilitary force.\nBy fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in trench warfare conditions and heavy casualties.\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders. On January 6th, Russia launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar. On January 16, Russian forces secured control of Soledar and began encircling Bakhmut.\nAfter months of fighting Russia made gains in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building falling to Russian troops in April.\nOn May 5, the head of the Wagner Group said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle because of lack of Russian support. Wagner then reversed course, before transferring the city to the Russian army.\nUkraine launched a counter-offensive in June 2023, and fierce fighting resumed near Bakhmut.", "date_begin": "2023-07-06", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map.\nThe question will resolve Yes if, when checked by Metaculus admins at 5pm ET on September 30, 2023, the map shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building\u2014located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500\u2014is under any of the following categories:\nUkranian Control\nClaimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\nAny other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukranian control of the location\nThe question will resolve No if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:\nAssessed Russian Control\nAssessed Russian Advance\nClaimed Russian Control\nReported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\nAny other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building\nForecasters can see the exact location of the administrative building by viewing the ISW Map, clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500\".\nFine Print\nIf the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building.\nCredit to GJOpen for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-07\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.405], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.409], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.422], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.431], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.438], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.445], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.437], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.434], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.431], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.427], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.432], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.433], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.437], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.436], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.432], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.434], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.437], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.431], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.437], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.429], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.427], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.423], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.412], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.414], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.408], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.405], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.396], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.392], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.391], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.389], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.387], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.361], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.353], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.344], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.318], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.308], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.301], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.297], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.288], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.277], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.263], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.256], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.253], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.251], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.216], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.202], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.202], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.202], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.201], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.199], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.193], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.192], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.189], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.187], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.186], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.184], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.184], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.182], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.179], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.174], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.172], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.168], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.168], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.167], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.167], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.162], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.158], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.153], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.153], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.153], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.152]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1702502497015812458\", \"https://twitter.com/rage_intel/status/1701704316632137824?t=3yrmaKDwiTOGl_MkZx0Svg&s=19\", \"https://twitter.com/arabnews/status/1699946480939802647?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1699946480939802647%7Ctwgr%5E14bfec9cadc56a55c71e7ea638e14abafab081fd%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcommunity.defconwarningsystem.com%2Fthreads%2FuaF09F87BAF09F87A6-ruF09F87B7F09F87BA-natoF09F87BAF09F87B3-reports.20315%2Fpage-7\", \"https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/10/europe/kupyansk-ukraine-evacuation-russia-intl/index.html\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2023/aug/10/how-bakhmut-became-a-pivot-in-the-ukraine-war\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74T7R1ybzu8\", \"https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-llpwzs/Bakhmut/?center=48.5796%2C38.00404&zoom=11\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bjl2CVwe4Yc&t=46s\", \"https://liveuamap.com/\", \"https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/07/25/russia-increase-ammo-production/\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/18/politics/ukraine-critical-ammo-shortage-us-nato-grapple/index.html\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-munitions-shortage-ukraine-joe-biden-pentagon-defense-military-congress-4e6d6576\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-24-2023\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-sustained-counteroffensive-denying-russia%E2%80%99s-prolongation-war\", \"https://liveuamap.com/\", \"https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1682919614248890373?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1682919614248890373%7Ctwgr%5E3e9b75ef5d4004838064058232e197d0d97782c2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcommunity.defconwarningsystem.com%2Fthreads%2FuaF09F87BAF09F87A6-ruF09F87B7F09F87BA-natoF09F87BAF09F87B3-reports.19811%2Fpage-14\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18-2023\", \"https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1678561277902471168\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17767/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Luna-25 is a planned lunar lander mission by the Russian space agency Roscosmos. If it succeeds, it will land in the lunar South Pole region near the Boguslavsky crater.\nAs the Russian-language Wikipedia article about Luna-25 says (translation by Google Translate):\nThe purpose of this project is to launch an automatic probe, the orbital part of which should carry out remote research and select suitable sites for subsequent descent vehicles, and the lander will explore the surface in the South Pole region , including cryogenic drilling to a depth of two meters (the main task is to search for water ).\nLuna-25 is the first lunar mission by Russia after the Soviet times. The last in the series of pioneering Soviet robotic lunar missions was Luna-24, which sent about 170 grams of moon material back to Earth in 1976.\nLuna-25 will launch atop a Soyuz-2.1b rocket, which in recent years has been very reliable.\nThe mission is currently set to launch from Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East on August 11, 2023, which is 47 years after Luna-24.\nThe mission launch was delayed multiple times in the past (see the table below which is translated by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian). Last time this happened at the end of May when the launch was moved from July to August.\nSource: Wikipedia, translation from Russian by Google Translate\nBecause of the delays in the past this question asks if they will launch the mission in the current launch window, which is July to August, however, the launch on September 1st local time for Vostochny Cosmodrome will still resolve the question as \"Yes\", if Luna-25 will reach Earth's orbit.\nFrom the recent video interview with Yuri Borisov, General Director of Roscosmos from 16th of June (automated translation based on automated transcription):\nWell, to begin with, the interest in the Moon arose after the possibility of water extraction was identified. If there is water, it means there is life and we can organize, including on the planets, a new station and think about industrial use of lunar resources. This is why interest in the Moon has been aroused recently, not only in our country, but in a number of other countries as well. We are actually, after a long break, 46 years to be exact, going back to the Lunar Program, Luna 25, which is our project to put a landing on the Moon. An automatic station at the South Pole. Taking soil and conducting a number of scientific experiments. Preparations for the launch are proceeding as planned. We actually had to postpone the launch from July 11 and move it to August. We cannot postpone it any further, unfortunately. The launch windows are the way the ballistics of reaching the Moon is set up. You know, this is a very responsible procedure, a soft landing. And so, of course, the experiment is quite expensive, you had to verify everything. You have probably heard that last year we refused because the personal characteristics of the laser number did not suit us and could lead to negative consequences. This experiment we postponed it. Now all the major technical difficulties have been overcome. According to the latest information, all the mathematical modelling, and we are doing almost a simulation, all the landings are going according to plan, preparations are underway to deliver the satellite to the launch site. And we hope that the launch will take place in August.\nMore recently, on June 30th, Russian media quoted Borisov reporting the mission's chances of success to Putin (automatic translation from Russian with Google Translate):\nBorisov said that the success of missions similar to Luna-25 is 70%\nAccording to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances\nMOSCOW, 30 June. /TASS/. The success of missions similar to the launch of the Luna-25 automatic apparatus in the world is 70%. This was reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin by the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov on Friday.\n\u201cWe are especially looking forward to the launch of a scientific satellite. We are returning to the Moon <\u2026>. This mission involves landing in the South Pole region, no one in the world has ever done such things <\u2026>. missions are estimated at about 70%,\" Borisov said.\nAccording to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances. \"I would like it (the mission - TASS note) to be successful,\" the general director of the state corporation stressed.\nThe first domestic device in modern Russia, which will go to the natural satellite of the Earth, should be the automatic station \"Luna-25\". The purpose of the project is to send an automatic probe for research in the region of the south pole of the moon. It is planned that the module will be landed near the Boguslavsky crater. Earlier, the press service of Roscosmos told journalists that the launch of the mission was postponed from July to August in order to achieve the required reliability of its implementation.\"", "date_begin": "2023-07-07", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the mission (like reaching the Moon's orbit or succeeding with a soft landing) is irrelevant to this question's resolution.\nIf the launch is delayed again beyond this question resolution deadline or cancelled, the question resolves as \"No\".\nIf any failure during the launch prevents Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit, this question resolves as \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.547], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.598], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.652], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.682], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.692], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.633], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.626], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.591], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.556], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.562], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.562], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.548], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.548], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.554], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.554], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.546], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.557], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.561], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.56], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.56], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.569], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.583], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.572], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.597], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.609], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.604], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.604], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.606], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.617], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.617], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.626], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.625], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.622], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.625], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.625], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.627], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.619], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.616], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.617], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.617], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.612], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.612], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.616], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.627], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.627], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.628], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.607], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.633], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.633], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.637], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.643], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.645], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.647], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.651], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.651], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.642], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.641], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.636], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.638], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.641], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.641], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.644], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.644], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.644], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.647], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.652], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.652], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.657], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.662], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.665], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.669], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.669], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.684], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.681], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.687], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.688], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.691], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.691], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.696], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.699], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.706], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.707], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.708], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.711], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.718], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.718], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.734], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.733], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.736], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.737]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/10/world/russia-luna-25-launch-scn/index.html\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/science/russia-moon-launch.html\", \"https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1689779161987002368\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgi2pIFrnW4&ab_channel=%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%A2%D0%92\", \"https://insiderpaper.com/russia-to-launch-lunar-mission-friday-first-in-nearly-50-years/\", \"https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/07/here-come-the-moon-landing-missions-probably/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17772/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Luna-25 mission is a planned lunar lander mission by Roscosmos. If everything goes according to the plan it will land near the lunar south pole near the Boguslavsky crater. Luna-25 is currently scheduled to be launched in August this year. The primary mission of Luna-25 is to prove the landing technology. The mission will carry 30 kg (66 lb) of scientific instruments, including a robotic arm for soil samples and possible drilling hardware.\nThe first human-made object to touch the Moon was the Soviet Union's Luna 2, on 13 September 1959. The final Soviet mission to the Moon was launched on Aug. 9, 1976, under the official name Luna-24. Luna-24 became the 11th Soviet attempt to return samples of the lunar soil back to Earth with a robotic probe and the third successful mission concluding the entire program.\nThe USA is to date the only country which landed astronauts on the Moon, but the last US Moon landing was 7 December 1972, so more than 50 years ago. NASA plans to return to the Moon have experienced delays, and Artemis 3 mission -the first crewed Moon landing mission in Artemis programme is currently scheduled to launch in December 2025, but there are already speculations about further delays.\nIn recent years, several countries and private companies have attempted to land softly on the moon with unmanned landers, but only China has succeeded so far - for the first time on 14 December 2013 with Chang'e 3. Currently, China appears to be accelerating its plans to land its astronauts on the Moon by 2030. India plans to give landing on the moon a second try with its Chandrayaan 3 mission, which has already launched on 14 July 2023 and the landing on the Moon is planned for 23 August 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-07-08", "date_close": "2040-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if Russia successfully lands on the Moon with their first attempt. As a first attempt, we count the first mission to achieve liftoff with a lunar lander on board and the stated intention to land the lander on the moon. This will be considered the \"first attempt\" even if Roscosmos decides at any point not to attempt the landing.\nIf there is a failure preventing liftoff from happening it will count as a failure of the mission and the question will resolve as No only if the spaceship or lander are destroyed or lost. If the launch is aborted or if there is a malfunction preventing the rocket from launching, but this first spaceship and first lander are intact and will be used in another launch, this next launch will still count as the first attempt.\nThe lander must touch the ground in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage all of its systems to the point of being inoperable. If some but not all systems are damaged during the landing, but the lander can still perform some of its tasks with its onboard equipment and Roscosmos is able to communicate with the lander after the landing, then it will qualify as a successful landing and the question will resolve Yes.\nThe landing must be confirmed by credible media sources.\nThis question resolves No if Russia\u2019s first attempt to land on the Moon fails.\nFine Print\nIn the unlikely case of Roscosmos or any Russian officials claiming that the landing was successful but this claim is being challenged by other countries' space agencies or by credible media sources, then the question will resolve ambiguously unless Metaculus Admins decide that the evidence provided by one side is proof which removes any reasonable doubt (something like NASA images of the crashed lander or images of the intact lander taken from orbit or from the surface of the Moon taken by the lander if their authenticity is independently confirmed).", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-15\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.697], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.734], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.653], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.646], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.609], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.609], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.579], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.579], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.592], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.592], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.582], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.573], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.536], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.543], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.543], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.531], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.545], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.556], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.557], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.557], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.557], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.557], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.574], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.574], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.577], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.577], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.59], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.591], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.591], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.591], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.593], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.596], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.598], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.584], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.584], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.584], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.584], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.591], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.592], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.592], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.591], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.598], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.584], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.586], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.583], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.583], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.591], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.592], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.593], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.593], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.596], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.596], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.594], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.594], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.576], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.576], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.572], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.564], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.556], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.556], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.544], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.525], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.525], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.519], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.517], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.484], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.484], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.476], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.459], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.446], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.441], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.441], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.421], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.42], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.414], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.407], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.393], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.392]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#fewpoints\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/help/markdown/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/help/markdown/#math\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaTeX\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#fewpoints\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/16616/the-global-push-to-return-to-the-moon-predicting-the-lunar-landings-and-trends-of-the-2020s/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#fewpoints\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66562629\", \"https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/10540\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66562629?at_campaign_type=owned&at_link_origin=BBCBreaking&at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_medium=social&at_link_id=9CFB9BDC-3F38-11EE-BCBA-99ABECABB293&at_ptr_name=twitter&at_link_type=web_link&at_format=link\", \"https://twitter.com/TitaniumSV5/status/1693184921182130662\", \"https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/10535):\", \"https://t.me/roscosmos_press/1438\", \"https://t.me/roscosmos_press/1441\", \"https://t.me/roscosmos_press/1442\", \"https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/08/russia-seems-to-have-lost-contact-with-its-first-lunar-probe-in-half-a-century/\", \"https://tass.com/science/1662579?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share\", \"https://twitter.com/cbs_spacenews/status/1692928079574761850?s=19\", \"https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1689779161987002368\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgi2pIFrnW4&ab_channel=%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%A2%D0%92\", \"https://insiderpaper.com/russia-to-launch-lunar-mission-friday-first-in-nearly-50-years/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036? (Sudan)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17778/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "A civil war refers to an armed conflict that takes place within a country, typically between different factions, regions, or political groups vying for power or independence. These internal conflicts are usually characterized by sustained, violent confrontations, significant casualties, and severe disruptions to social and economic systems. Several factors can contribute to the onset of a civil war, including political instability, economic disparities, ethnic or religious tensions, and the struggle over resources or territory. The impact of civil wars can be devastating, leading to widespread destruction, human displacement, and humanitarian crises.", "date_begin": "2023-07-10", "date_close": "2035-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes for each listed country that experiences a civil war before January 1, 2036.\nWhether a country experiences Civil War will be determined based on the Council of Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker. The question will resolve Yes for each nation that is listed as in a state of \"Civil War\". The term \"Civil War\" must appear in either the title of the conflict or the category assigned to the conflict.\nFine Print\nBecause of the difficulties in defining \"civil war\" this question will be annulled if the Council of Foreign Relations stops publishing the Global Conflict Tracker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-11\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.875], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.898], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.902], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.902], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.919], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.926], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.926], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.928], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.933], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.939], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.927], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.938], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.931], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.926], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.918], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.927], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.929], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.929], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.931], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.931], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.933], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.934], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.934], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.934], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.938], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.938], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.939], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.939], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.937], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.933], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.939], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.941], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.941], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.941], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.943], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.943], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.944], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.944], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.944], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.946], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.947], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.931], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.93], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.93], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.93], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.933], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.933], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.934], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.932], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.927], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.931], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.931], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.932], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.931], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.933], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.933], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.933], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.932], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.933], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.933], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.934], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.934], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.936], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.936], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.936], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.936], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.936], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.936], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.937], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.937], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.937], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.938], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.938], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.938], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.938], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.939], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.939], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.941], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.942], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.942], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.943], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.944], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.942], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.943]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17792/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Ohio Issue 1 (2023), also called \"the 60% Vote Requirement to Approve Constitutional Amendments Measure\", is on the ballot in Ohio for an election on August 8, 2023.\nA \"yes\" vote would amend the Ohio Constitution and increase the voter approval threshold for future constitutional amendments considered via ballot initiative to 60% (whereas currently the threshold is a simple majority of 50%+1). Issue 1 passing would also require citizen-initiated amendment campaigns to collect signatures from each of the state's 88 counties (whereas previously the threshold was only half of the counties) and eliminate a currently authorized 10 day \"cure\"/grace period for addressing invalid signatures. Generally this would make future ballot initiatives much harder to pass.\nA \"no\" vote would maintain the status quo.", "date_begin": "2023-07-11", "date_close": "2023-08-08", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-09", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves YES if, per credible media reporting, Ohio Issue 1 is passed following the August 2023 election.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-12\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.374], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.343], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.331], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.371], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.371], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.393], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.389], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.413], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.413], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.414], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.416], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.423], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.426], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.426], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.423], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.422], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.383], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.379], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.376], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.364], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.353], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.351], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.347], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.345], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.339], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.339], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.337], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.337], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.329], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.328], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.322], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.309], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.299], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.265], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.254], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.253], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.247], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.246], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.262], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.265], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.262], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.264], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.266], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.271], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.272], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.273], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.273], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.272], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.271], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.271], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.272], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.269], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.268], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.268], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.272], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.276], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.276], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.276], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.277], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.266], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.266], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.264], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.264], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.265], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.264], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.264], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.264], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.263], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.262], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.262], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.259], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.256]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.wcpo.com/news/government/elections-local/ohio-special-election-results-issue-1-fails\", \"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-issue-1-abortion-ballot-measures/\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/tale-two-polls-why-poll-100638222.html\", \"https://drive.google.com/file/d/17_phNkcIaWbzbalAWCdOzkttDm2O3GHN/view\", \"https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Issue_1,_60%25_Vote_Requirement_to_Approve_Constitutional_Amendments_Measure_(2023)#Campaign_finance\", \"https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1681489429075226630\", \"https://apnews.com/article/abortion-ohio-referendum-election-2023-7ea8656d35adce9dfb8d9a9bf8c69d60\", \"https://www.yahoo.com/news/issue-1-poll-most-ohio-020023481.html\", \"https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Issue_1,_60%25_Vote_Requirement_to_Approve_Constitutional_Amendments_Measure_(2023)\", \"https://twitter.com/afperspective76/status/1679145314979049473?s=61&t=MqahXWJdce9NB4o31du7ww\"]"}, {"question": "Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17793/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Colson Whitehead, is a Pulitzer and National Book Award-winning author who has penned various acclaimed works, such as \"The Underground Railroad,\" \"The Nickel Boys,\" and \"Harlem Shuffle,\" and received numerous accolades like the MacArthur Fellowship. His latest book Crook Manifesto, will be published on July 18th, 2023 and is considered one of the most anticipated books of the summer.", "date_begin": "2023-07-11", "date_close": "2023-07-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Crook Manifesto is listed in the top 15 books on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Hardcover Fiction for the list dated August 13th.\nFine Print\nDated lists generally include sales data ending about 2 weeks prior and are available online about 1 week prior.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-14\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.86], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.814], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.826], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.801], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.814], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.793], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.788], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.786], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.772], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.773], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.77], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.77], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.741], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.738], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.742], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.742], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.734], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.736], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.721], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.72], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.72], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.721], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.716], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.716], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.718], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.727], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.728], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.731], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.731], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.731], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.73], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.726], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.726], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.726], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.722], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.722], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.718], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.714], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.716], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.709], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.704], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.704], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.708], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.709], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.711], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.709], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.709], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.704], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.696], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.703], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.697], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.698], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.7], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.699], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.699], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.697], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.694], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.691], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.69], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.691], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.693], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.693], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.684], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.694], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.693], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.693], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.69], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.689], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.689], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.696], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.7], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.707], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.711], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.713], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.72], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.748], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.78], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.788], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.788], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.789], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.792], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.792], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.799], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.801]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/hardcover-fiction/\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/2023/08/06/hardcover-fiction/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14459/amazon-ratings-for-prince-harrys-book-spare/#comment-112894\"]"}, {"question": "Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17796/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Sphere, an impressive $2 billion venue at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, was fully illuminated for the first time on July 4, 2023. Covered in 580,000 square feet of programmable LED panels, The Sphere has become a striking addition to the Las Vegas skyline. With an 18,000-seat capacity, it is set to host its first concert on September 29, 2023, featuring the band U2.", "date_begin": "2023-07-11", "date_close": "2023-09-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes if the U2 concert at The Sphere in Las Vegas occurs as planned on September 29, 2023.\nFine Print\nIf the concert starts (but does not finish or is rescheduled mid-concert) this question will still resolve Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-13\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.884], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.863], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.853], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.854], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.852], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.854], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.845], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.847], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.839], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.839], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.837], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.837], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.839], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.839], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.841], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.841], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.841], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.841], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.846], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.846], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.847], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.848], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.849], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.849], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.856], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.858], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.858], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.858], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.858], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.861], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.861], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.861], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.863], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.867], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.868], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.869], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.871], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.872], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.878], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.881], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.895], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.895], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.901], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.903], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.903], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.91], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.911], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.927], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.928], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.928], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.929], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.929], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.931], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.931], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.93], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.931], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.931], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.932], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.932], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.932], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.931], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.933], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.933], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.936], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.936], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.936], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.938], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.938], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.936], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.937], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.938], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.938], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.939], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.939], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.937], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.937], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.94], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.94], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.941], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.943], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.942]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.youtube.com/live/VQhSKlIeK7s?feature=shared\", \"https://youtu.be/n3KMn2IxzBk?feature=shared\", \"https://youtu.be/dp3WH1lASGI?feature=shared\", \"https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cxy1QTBsSAC/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==\", \"https://youtu.be/YWt5mF0i-M0\", \"https://twitter.com/U2/status/1659590021077422081?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/edmtrainapp/status/1683312356019908609\"]"}, {"question": "Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17907/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Over the last few years, Sweden has had hotter and sunnier summers than usual, an experience shared with other places around the world. The hot and dry summers are bad for crop yields, but occasionally celebrated by people looking to enjoy their vacation and recharge on daylight after a long, dark winter.\nSo far, this summer has also been hot and dry and there's no real reason to think it would not continue to be. That said, exceeding 500 hours of sun in Stockholm has happened only four times in the past 20 years, with the normal amount of sun in recent history hovering in the 350-450 hour range.", "date_begin": "2023-07-15", "date_close": "2023-07-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if the total number of hours of sun (summation over the weeks 26-32 inclusive) listed for Stockholm by SVT Data Journalism Sun League exceeds 500.\nThe number of hours used to resolve this question will be the ones listed the first time the page is accessed after August 13th.\nFine Print\nIf the page is not available between August 14th and 17th, but SVT maintains an equivalent successor to that page, the successor will be used instead. If SVT does not publish any data on sun hours between the 14th and 17th, the question resolves ambiguously.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-18\", 0.216], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.389], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.356], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.363], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.363], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.396], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.416], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.422], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.422], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.419], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.418], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.423], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.423], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.421], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.419], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.421], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.421], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.429], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.432], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.423], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.413], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.412], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.413], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.414], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.414], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.416], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.419], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.416], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.412], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.407], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.408], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.407], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.408], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.409], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.408], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.409], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.406], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.406], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.406], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.409], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.408], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.416], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.414], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.413], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.412], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.412], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.412], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.411], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.408], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.407], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.404], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.406], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.412], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.412], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.416], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.435], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.432], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.433], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.434], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.434], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.434], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.433]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/solligan-2023/\", \"https://www.smhi.se/en/weather/q/Stockholm/2673730#tab=stim\", \"https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2022/clouds-and-sunshine-duration\", \"https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202307241200&epsgram=classical_15d_with_climate&lat=59.3326&lon=18.0649&station_name=Stockholm\", \"https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/sweden/stockholm/historic?month=7&year=2023\", \"https://www.weather.gov/bgm/forecast_terms\", \"https://www.smhi.se/en/weather/q/Aberdeen/2657832\", \"https://www.bbc.com/weather/2673730\", \"https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/solligan-2023/\", \"https://github.com/JoePater/datasets/blob/main/stockholm_sun.csv\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17914/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Chandrayaan-3 lander Vikram is a lunar lander designed by India's space program (ISRO).\nThe Chandrayaan-2 mission was launched in July 2019 and it resulted in a lander that crashed on the lunar surface in September of that year. The cause was attributed to a software glitch.\nIf the Chandrayaan-3 mission is successful India would only be the fourth country to soft land a lander on the moon after the Soviet Union, the US, and China.\nThe Chandrayaan-3 lander Vikram was launched on a GSLV Mark 3 rocket on July 14, 2023 and is expected to land on the moon on August 23 or 24 near Mutus crater.", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if the Vikram lander soft-lands on the surface of the moon.\nTo qualify as a soft-landing, the lander must touch the lunar surface in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage all of its systems to the point of being inoperable. If some but not all systems are damaged during the landing, but the lander can still perform some of its tasks with its onboard equipment and the Indian Space Research Organization is able to communicate with the lander after the landing, then it will qualify as a successful landing and the question will resolve Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-20\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.577], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.582], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.563], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.581], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.581], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.558], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.558], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.602], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.602], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.602], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.597], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.597], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.615], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.616], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.62], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.62], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.619], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.617], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.613], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.613], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.614], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.614], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.635], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.636], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.636], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.634], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.634], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.646], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.644], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.642], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.647], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.647], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.647], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.648], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.649], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.648], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.654], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.652], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.649], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.649], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.654], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.654], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.662], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.662], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.67], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.672], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.672], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.662], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.667], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.666], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.674], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.674], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.671], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.671], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.672], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.669], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.669], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.67], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.674], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.679], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.678], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.678], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.681], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.681], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.683], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.684], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.685], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.691], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.692], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.692], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.693], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.677], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.692], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.692], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.694], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.696], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.697], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.703], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.703], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.703]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/successful-indian-moon-landing-before-2027/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17955/india-lands-a-rover-on-moon/\"]"}, {"question": "Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17916/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "UPS and UPS union employees are in the midst of negotiations over a new contract. The current employee contract is set to expire on July 31, 2023. Negotiations deadlocked in early July.\nThe Teamsters Union said on Wednesday United Parcel Service \"walked away\" from negotiations over a new contract, a claim the shipping giant denied, lobbing its own accusation that the union had stopped negotiating.\nThe two sides traded salvos in early morning statements as they attempt an agreement to prevent a strike when the current contract, which covers some 340,000 workers, expires at the end of the month.\nWorkers of UPS have already authorized a strike should the talks break down. Such a labor action would be the first since 1997 for UPS workers, in a strike that lasted 15 days, cost the company $850 million and sent some customers to rivals Both the union and company officials have said before that they wanted a deal finalized to prevent a strike, which could put millions of daily deliveries at risk.\nTeamsters leaders have asked the White House not to intervene in the event of a strike.\nA UPS Teamsters strike would be the largest U.S. Labor strike in more than 60 years and could have broad reverberations in the economy.", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate the UPS Teamsters are on strike as of 12pm ET on August 4, 2023. Please note that this question resolves solely on the status of the strike on August 4. If a strike is declared prior to August 4, this question will not resolve based on that announcement.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-19\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.451], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.404], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.373], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.373], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.364], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.358], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.337], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.361], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.367], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.368], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.367], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.361], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.356], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.362], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.367], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.369], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.369], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.368], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.363], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.353], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.353], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.354], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.354], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.348], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.346], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.346], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.342], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.342], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.343], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.345], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.344], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.344], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.344], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.344], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.343], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.338], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.338], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.331], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.263], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.199], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.158], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.141], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.126], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.111], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.099], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.091], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.081], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.069], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.073], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.063], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.057], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.057], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.057], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.057], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.057], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.056], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.051], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.051], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.052], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.051], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.049], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.049], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.048], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.048], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.047], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.047]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://teamster.org/2023/07/ups-teamsters-local-unions-endorse-tentative-agreement/\", \"https://teamster.org/2023/07/weve-changed-the-game-teamsters-win-historic-ups-contract/\", \"https://youtu.be/Lal1JUxAtAE?t=366\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/25/ups-strike-deal-teamsters/\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ups-teamsters-contract-unions-agreement-part-time-pay-debate/\", \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000093176300000749/0000931763-00-000749.txt\", \"https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/ups-amazon-reduce-delivery-volume-revenue-ties-2023/643768/\", \"https://www.freightwaves.com/news/yellow-trucking-drivers-bankruptcy-potential\", \"https://teamster.org/2023/07/strike-averted-at-yrc-freight-holland/\", \"https://www.bls.gov/web/wkstp/monthly-listing.htm\", \"https://teamster.org/2023/07/weve-changed-the-game-teamsters-win-historic-ups-contract/\", \"https://twitter.com/business/status/1683871820255043586?s=20\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/22/leinenkugels-strike-brewery/\", \"https://teamster.org/2023/07/striking-teamsters-demand-fair-contract-from-leinenkugels/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/united-parcel-service-teamsters-union-resume-labor-talks-tuesday-2023-07-22/?taid=64bc2d166c0e1300019abf8c&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter\", \"https://www.teamsters117.org/teamsters_raise_practice_pickets_at_animal_supply\", \"https://www.teamsters117.org/teamsters_at_animal_supply_celebrate_newly_ratified_contract\", \"https://teamster.org/about/frequently-asked-questions-faq/\", \"https://olmsapps.dol.gov/query/orgReport.do?rptId=867623&rptForm=LM2Form)\", \"https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/07/teamsters-strike-against-ups-would-make-history.html\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/trucker-yellow-is-losing-customers-as-teamsters-strike-looms-2c47bcdc\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/20/ups-strike-deadline-union-teamsters/\", \"https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/letters-to-editor/strike-threats.htm\", \"https://www.bls.gov/web/wkstp/monthly-listing.htm\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-19/ups-to-restart-talks-with-union-to-head-off-potential-strike?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&in_source=embedded-checkout-banner\"]"}, {"question": "Will New Zealand win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17922/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.014]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Norway win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17923/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.077], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.073], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.073], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.079], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.079], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.078], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.066], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.053], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.051], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.051], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.039], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.037], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.037], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.037], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.036], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.015]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Philippines win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17924/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.001], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.001], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.049], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.049], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.049]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Switzerland win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17925/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.002], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.012]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Australia win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17926/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.062], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.084], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.099], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.084], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.089], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.084], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.084], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.083], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.083], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.084], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.077], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.077], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.068], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.068], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.062], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.062], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.057], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.059], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.056], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.058], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.059], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.059], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.059], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.064], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.059], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.066], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.066], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.066], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.066], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.066], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.066], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.064], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.067], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.067], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.087], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.091], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.091], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.087], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.089], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.083], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.083], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.083], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.083], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.084], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.082], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.082], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.091], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.094], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.141], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.143], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.161], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.162], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.166], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.164], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.167], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.166], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.166], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.168], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.168], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.173], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.177], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.179], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.184], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.172]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Republic of Ireland win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17927/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.014]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Nigeria win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17928/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.012]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Canada win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17929/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.039], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.039], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.039], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.039], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.039], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.032], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.019]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Spain win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17930/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.143], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.131], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.131], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.171], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.18], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.167], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.167], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.149], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.155], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.155], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.156], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.149], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.152], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.152], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.154], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.168], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.146], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.146], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.148], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.159], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.172], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.185], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.185], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.232], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.232], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.232], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.232], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.226], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.224], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.243], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.237], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.238], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.232], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.232], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.232], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.228], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.219], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.218], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.214], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.209], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.209], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.211], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.211], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.212], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.212], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.211], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.211], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.212], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.211], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.214], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.214], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.214], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.212], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.222], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.219], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.214], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.214], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.223], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.227], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.238], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.254], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.254], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.261], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.261], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.262], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.264], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.293], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.333], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.348], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.361], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.397], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.411], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.413], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.414], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.414], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.422], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.422], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.431], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.435], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.437], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.442], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.443], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.443]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Costa Rica win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17931/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.001], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.001], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.012]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Zambia win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17932/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.002], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.002], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.011]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Japan win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17933/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.073], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.083], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.083], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.062], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.062], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.063], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.054], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.054], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.052], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.052], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.054], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.053], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.053], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.053], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.053], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.052], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.053], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.056], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.064], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.059], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.063], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.072], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.076], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.078], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.078], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.078], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.084], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.087], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.087], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.099], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.099], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.098], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.098], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.102], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.111], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.113], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.114], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.118], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.118], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.118], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.119], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.127], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.127], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.136], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.136], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.138], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.141], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.138], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.139], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.137], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.138], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.144], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.144], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.144], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.144], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.144], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.172], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.172], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.171], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.171], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.171], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.177], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.181], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.179], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.179], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.179], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.172]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will England win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17934/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.168], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.149], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.191], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.187], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.188], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.183], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.18], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.187], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.186], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.178], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.182], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.182], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.182], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.182], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.182], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.177], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.188], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.188], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.174], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.174], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.174], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.173], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.174], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.172], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.173], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.174], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.174], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.172], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.172], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.172], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.172], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.168], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.172], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.169], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.169], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.172], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.203], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.203], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.217], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.219], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.219], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.231], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.232], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.232], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.233], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.234], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.234], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.234], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.239], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.244], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.254], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.258], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.254], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.256], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.257], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.254], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.254], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.261], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.259], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.265], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.266], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.278], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.266], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.266], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.267], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.267], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.267], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.263], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.279], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.298], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.298], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.302], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.302], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.302], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.304], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.309], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.308], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.308], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.307], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.334], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.334], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.342], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.382], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.42], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.435], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.438], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.439], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.439], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.445], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.448], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.465], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.468], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.469]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Haiti win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17935/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.008], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.008], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.007]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Denmark win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17936/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.008], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.032], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.032], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.037], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.032], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.012]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will China win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17937/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.018], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.016]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will United States win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17938/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.244], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.296], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.237], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.289], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.289], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.279], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.279], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.379], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.401], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.378], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.372], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.369], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.369], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.369], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.393], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.384], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.37], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.37], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.364], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.364], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.364], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.356], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.357], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.356], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.359], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.349], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.349], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.349], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.349], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.349], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.341], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.341], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.341], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.338], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.338], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.339], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.34], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.34], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.342], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.343], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.343], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.343], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.342], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.334], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.321], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.319], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.319], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.319], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.309], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.303], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.303], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.297], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.289], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.289], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.303], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.303], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.301], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.297], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.297], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.297], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.297], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.297], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.283], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.283], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.283], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.281], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.281], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.281], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.279]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Vietnam win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17939/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.001], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.001], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.063], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.009], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.009], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.008]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Netherlands win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17940/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.032], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.074], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.089], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.096], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.104], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.104], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.104], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.106], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.097], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.097], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.086], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.086], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.086], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.074], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.048], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.051], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.052], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.052], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.054], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.054], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.056], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.056], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.056], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.059], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.063], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.064], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.071], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.078], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.079], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.079], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.079], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.068], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.067], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.065]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Portugal win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17941/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.002], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will France win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17942/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.069], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.062], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.089], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.089], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.089], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.099], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.094], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.128], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.106], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.106], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.094], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.094], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.087], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.086], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.084], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.084], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.072], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.072], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.072], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.069], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.069], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.077], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.077], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.072], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.071], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.068], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.071], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.071], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.071], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.071], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.066], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.067], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.067], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.067], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.069], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.071], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.072], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.072], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.076], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.077], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.082], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.083], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.086], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.084], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.086], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.091], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.092], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.096], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.098], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.114], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.114]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Jamaica win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17943/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.001], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.001], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.01]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Brazil win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17944/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.097], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.086], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.086], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.084], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.084], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.076], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.068], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.041], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.041], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.043], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.039], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.039]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Panama win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17945/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.001], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Sweden win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17946/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.126], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.126], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.117], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.127], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.114], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.107], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.107], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.109], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.108], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.108], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.101], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.098], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.098], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.056], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.078], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.067], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.073], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.077], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.077], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.114], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.113], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.116], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.113], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.113], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.119], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.136], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.163], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.137], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.138], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.137], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.137], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.128], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.128], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.127], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.127], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.129], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.136], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.166], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.203], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.203], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.208], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.233], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.236], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.241], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.247], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.242]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will South Africa win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17947/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.002], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.009]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Italy win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17948/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.023], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.023]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Argentina win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17949/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Germany win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17950/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.101], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.101], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.102], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.118], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.134], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.118], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.123], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.123], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.123], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.123], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.123], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.123], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.123], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.169], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.159], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.159], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.169], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.192], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.192], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.178], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.184], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.188], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.188], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.188], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.182], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.183], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.183], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.183], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.189], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.217], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.217], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.217], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.217], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.217], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.217], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.227], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.214], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.215], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.211], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.211], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.211], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.211], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.211], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.207], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.207], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.208], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.208], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.203], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.203], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.195], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.196], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.196], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.195], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.186], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.186], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.181], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.168], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.168], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.181], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.162], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.163], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.163], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.163], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.159], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.157], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.152], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.152], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.148], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.145]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Morocco win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17951/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.002], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.002], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.008], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.008]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Colombia win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17952/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.024], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.018], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.018], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.019], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.019], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.019], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.019], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.019], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.022], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.022], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.022], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.022], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.023], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.032], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.031]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will South Korea win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17953/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023.\nPast Results\nEd. Year Host Final Champion Score Final Runner-up Third-place Third Score Third-place Fourth Num. Teams\n1 1991 China United States 2\u20131 Norway Sweden 4\u20130 Germany 12\n2 1995 Sweden Norway 2\u20130 Germany United States 2\u20130 China 12\n3 1999 United States United States 0\u20130 (a.e.t.) (5\u20134 p) China Brazil 0\u20130 [n 1] (5\u20134 p) Norway 16\n4 2003 United States Germany 2\u20131 (a.e.t.) Sweden United States 3\u20131 Canada 16\n5 2007 China Germany 2\u20130 Brazil United States 4\u20131 Norway 16\n6 2011 Germany Japan 2\u20132 (a.e.t.) (3\u20131 p) United States Sweden 2\u20131 France 16\n7 2015 Canada United States 5\u20132 Japan England 1\u20130 (a.e.t.) Germany 24\n8 2019 France United States 2\u20130 Netherlands Sweden 2\u20131 England 24\n9 2023 Australia, New Zealand TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD 32", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.002], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.019], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.032], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.012], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.01]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17955/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Chandrayaan Programme (Translation: Lunar Vehicle Programme), also known as the Indian Lunar Exploration Programme, is an ongoing series of outer space missions by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). Its four main parts are:\nOrbiter, which orbits the moon and sends data.\nImpactor, which crashes onto the moon\u2019s surface. It sends data before crashing. After the crash, Orbiter analyzes the debris and collects the data.\nLander - a vehicle that lands on the moon's surface such that the instruments inside it are safe.\nRover - a vehicle that moves around the surface of the moon and sends data back.\nChandrayaan-1 was launched on October 22, 2008. It had an orbiter and an impactor. The mission fulfilled all its objectives and even found water. Chandrayaan-2 was initially meant to be launched in 2013. It was planned as an Indian-made orbiter and a Russian-made lander. As the Indian Express explains:\nThe kind of lander and rover that Russia was preparing to send on Chandrayaan-2, however, developed problem on a different mission, forcing Roscosmos to make design corrections. But the new proposed design was found to be incompatible to Chandrayaan-2. Russia had to eventually pull itself out from the collaboration, which left ISRO to make efforts to develop its own lander and rover through research and development. This task took a few years to accomplish.\nThe launch finally happened six years later, on 22nd July, 2019. While Chandrayaan-2 successfully managed to orbit the moon, the lander lost contact just before touchdown and crashed on its surface. Chandrayaan-3 picks up where Chandrayaan-2 left off. It only has a lander and a rover.\nOn Friday, July 14 Chandrayaan-3 began with a successful launch.\nThe Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) said Friday afternoon that the Chandrayaan-3 mission had launched successfully and the rocket had entered \u201cprecise orbit.\u201d The vessel is now scheduled to travel for more than a month in orbit and then land at the moon\u2019s south pole on Aug. 23.\nIf the Chandrayaan\u2019s four-legged craft sticks its landing, it will deploy a 60-pound, solar-powered rover to scour the lunar surface for two weeks. It would also catapult India into a small group of countries, consisting of the United States, Russia and China, that have managed the feat.", "date_begin": "2023-07-17", "date_close": "2023-08-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if:\nIndia's Chandrayaan-3 mission's lander lands on the moon, and;\nThe Pragyan rover is able to exit the lander and establish communication with ISRO from the lunar surface.\nThe landing and rover exiting the lander must be confirmed by credible media sources.\nFine Print\nIn the unlikely case that ISRO claims the landing was successful but this claim is challenged by other countries' space agencies or by credible media sources, then the question will resolve ambiguously unless Metaculus Admins decide that the evidence provided by one side is proof which removes any reasonable doubt (something like NASA images of the crashed lander or images of the intact lander if their authenticity is independently confirmed).", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-20\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.602], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.581], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.572], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.576], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.573], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.571], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.583], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.584], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.586], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.584], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.586], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.589], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.593], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.594], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.594], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.592], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.596], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.596], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.597], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.601], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.601], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.596], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.594], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.594], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.598], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.598], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.599], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.588], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.588], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.587], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.587], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.592], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.587], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.589], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.591], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.593], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.596], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.597], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.601], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.602], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.604], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.604], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.603], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.602], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.603], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.604], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.603], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.606], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.611], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.604], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.612], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.611], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.616], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.616], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.621], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.622], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.624], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.626], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.626], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.627], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.628], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.626], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.626], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.627], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.635], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.637], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.639], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.639], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.638], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.637], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.639], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.643], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.642], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.647], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.648], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.651], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.658], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.662], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.66]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/isro/status/1694545322251571687\", \"https://twitter.com/isro/status/1694699791505322117\", \"https://www.timesnownews.com/india/as-india-dances-with-joy-after-chandrayaan-3-success-pragyan-rover-begins-historic-exploration-article-103010401\", \"https://news.abplive.com/science/chandrayaan-3-pragyan-rover-rolls-out-of-vikram-lander-explore-lunar-surface-for-14-days-1624994\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17914/indias-chandrayaan-3-soft-lands-on-moon/\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-india-66576580?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=64e5fca2b994ec6acab219ad%26India%20makes%20history%20with%20south%20pole%20Moon%20landing%262023-08-23T12%3A33%3A38.871Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:0a5594f5-9f47-4abf-8450-373b1151825e&pinned_post_asset_id=64e5fca2b994ec6acab219ad&pinned_post_type=share\", \"https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1694326999928443203\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLA_64yz8Ss\", \"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3153489/chinas-moon-research-bring-within-reach-chinese-home)\", \"https://davidson.weizmann.ac.il/en/online/sciencepanorama/what-happened-beresheet\", \"https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/trends/story/chandrayaan-2-mission-cost-india-rs-978-crore-avengers-endgame-film-made-rs-2443-crore-218488-2019-07-22\", \"https://davidson.weizmann.ac.il/en/online/sciencepanorama/what-happened-beresheet\", \"https://www.india.com/news/india/chandrayaan-3-budget-what-is-the-cost-of-isros-latest-lunar-mission-6245643/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting\", \"https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd\", \"https://metaculusextras.com/questions_chart\", \"https://metaculusextras.com/points_per_question?page=1\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/08/19/1194616447/russia-and-india-are-landing-on-the-moon-next-week-heres-what-you-need-to-know\", \"https://tass.com/science/1662579?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17914/indias-chandrayaan-3-soft-lands-on-moon/#comment-130184\", \"https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/chandrayaan-2-landing-40-lunar-missions-in-last-60-years-failed-finds-nasa-report-1596620-2019-09-07\", \"https://moon.nasa.gov/exploration/moon-missions/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17955/india-lands-a-rover-on-moon/#comment-128160\", \"https://twitter.com/chandrayaan_3/status/1687831700452098048\", \"https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/chandrayaan-3-has-covered-about-two-thirds-of-distance-to-moon-isro-mission/article67157706.ece\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17914/indias-chandrayaan-3-soft-lands-on-moon/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#:~:text=The%20resolution%20date%20is%20the,not%20binding%20in%20any%20way.\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hP0GbRNGMLk&t=3s&ab_channel=ScottManley\", \"https://twitter.com/isro\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon)\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan_programme\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISRO\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-1\", \"https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-chandrayaan-2-was-to-be-launched-by-india-and-russia-in-2011-its-delayed-but-better-5972440/\", \"https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/india-chandrayaan-2-landing-attempt-moon-lunar-south-pole\", \"https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2019/vikram-lander-found/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/14/india-moon-launch-space-chandrayaan/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan_programme\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISRO\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-1\", \"https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-chandrayaan-2-was-to-be-launched-by-india-and-russia-in-2011-its-delayed-but-better-5972440/\", \"https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/india-chandrayaan-2-landing-attempt-moon-lunar-south-pole\", \"https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2019/vikram-lander-found/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/14/india-moon-launch-space-chandrayaan/\"]"}, {"question": "Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17988/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "There have been two separate outbreaks of Marburg virus in Africa in 2023; one in Equatorial Guinea and one in Tanzania, but by June 8th, both outbreaks were reported over, \"after two consecutive incubation periods (42 days) without a new confirmed case reported\".\nThe Marburg virus is a filovirus (a cousin of Ebola viruses), causing a hemorrhagic fever similar to that of the Ebola virus. Like Ebola, it can be transmitted from person to person, typically through close contact with people who are very sick. Source\nIn mid July, there were preliminary reports of Marburg in Algeria, which the government has since denied.", "date_begin": "2023-07-19", "date_close": "2023-07-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Healthcare & Biology", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if there are credible reports by July 28th confirming a case of Marburg virus. Examples of credible reporting include (but are not limited to) the CDC, WHO, or the Algerian government.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-21\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.164], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.097], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.097], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.097], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.088], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.087], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.067], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.057], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.057], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.054], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.049], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.047], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.039], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.039], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.037], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.037], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.028], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.023], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.022], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.016]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/marburg/outbreaks/chronology.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17989/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "According to the bill, the act is intended \"to prevent States and local jurisdictions from interfering with the production and distribution of agricultural products in interstate commerce, and for other purposes.\"\nThe \u201cEnding Agricultural Trade Suppression Act\u201d (EATS) bill was introduced in the US Senate on June 15, 2023 by Senators Roger Marshall (R-KS), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), John Cornyn (R-TX), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Deb Fischer (R-NE), Joni Ernst (R-IA), and Eric Schmitt (R-MO).\nCritics and proponents alike say that the legislation is a response to the Supreme Court of the United States\u2019 recent decision to uphold Proposition 12, a law that prohibits \"the sale of eggs, pork, and/or veal from caged animals raised anywhere in the world\".\nCritics of the EATS Act argue that the bill would worsen animal welfare across the country:\nThe EATS Act, if passed, would increase suffering for the vast majority of land animals raised for food in the United States and reverse decades of progress for hens, pigs, and calves. It would invalidate crucial anti-confinement laws in numerous states throughout the country and could prevent other states from adopting similar policies in the future.\nProponents say that the act would preserve interstate agricultural trade and prevent undue interference by state and local governments:\nThe legislation prohibits state and local governments from interfering with agricultural production nationwide, while preserving their ability to regulate farming and ranching within their jurisdictions. [...] California's Proposition 12 imposes onerous standards on pork products sold in the state, regardless of where the pigs are raised. The policy would add significant costs to pork producers and consumers across the nation. Iowa was among 20 states to file an amicus brief opposing the law in 2021.", "date_begin": "2023-07-19", "date_close": "2024-01-02", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve 'Yes' if the US House of Representatives votes to approve the EATS Act by January 3, 2024.\nThis question will resolve 'No' if the US House of Representatives does not vote to approve the EATS Act by January 3, 2024.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-23\", 0.55], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.52], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.52], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.584], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.569], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.569], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.569], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.569], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.552], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.557], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.502], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.469], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.473], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.473], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.459], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.454], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.438], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.442], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.387], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.389], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.376], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.347], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.326], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.321], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.307], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.306], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.304], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.302], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.296], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.294], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.277], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.26], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.249], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.244], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.243], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.231], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.218], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.217]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/4417\"]"}, {"question": "Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17995/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Historically, the Black Sea has been the battleground of numerous conflicts resulting in the loss of Naval vessels. The most recent and on-going conflict is the Russo-Ukrainian war.\nFrom the onset of the war, most of the conflict has taken place on land, however the Black Sea has also seen significant naval conflict.\nThe region is host to the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet (BSF) which boasts a fleet of around 40 vessels ranging from large frigates (up to 5,400 tonne), smaller corvettes (up to 2,200 tonne), as well as submarines.\nNote: See here for Wikipedia's list of active Russian Navy vessels (sort for Black Sea Fleet)\nThe Ukrainian Navy on the other hand has a minuscule fleet, consisting mainly of auxiliary vessels and fast-attack crafts. All of Ukraine's larger vessels were lost as a result of the war; her final large surface vessel, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, was scuttled by Ukrainian forces to prevent her capture.\nNote: See here for Wikipedia's list of active Ukrainian Navy vessels\nWhilst a large proportion of Ukrainian Navy vessels have been lost, the Russian Navy has lost a large number of vessels. In the BSF\u2019s attempt to establish and maintain naval supremacy in the Black Sea, a number of smaller and larger vessels have been lost, perhaps most notably the fleet's ex-flagship vessel, the cruiser Moskva (Moscow) on 14 April 2022 as a result of Ukrainian land-based anti-ship missile strikes.\nThe Turkish Navy is another navy who operate in the Black Sea. Turkey has huge strategic influence over the region as they have a degree of control over the Bosporus Strait as a result of the Montreux Convention.\nThe US Navy has also frequently transited the Bosporus Strait and entered the region. In the Cold War, a ramming incident occurred between US and Soviet navies. More recent confrontation came about when a Russian Su-27 downed a US MQ-9 Reaper UAV over the Black Sea in March 2023.\nGiven the importance of the Black Sea, as well as the substantial amount of on-going military conflict, it is entirely possible that one or more navy vessel(s) operating in the area may be lost.\nN.B. Wikipedia's List of ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War provides an exhaustive list of navy and civilian ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War (as well as Russia's Invasion of Crimea).", "date_begin": "2023-07-20", "date_close": "2024-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if reputable sources report that a Navy vessel that displaces \u2265500 tonnes has either been:\nsunk;\ndestroyed;\nscuttled;\ncaptured; or\ncritically damaged\nwhilst operating in the Black Sea before Jan 1, 2025.\nAlternatively, if multiple smaller Navy vessels displacing <500 tonnes are lost, but their cumulative displacements are \u2265500 tonnes, this question will also resolve Yes. These vessels need not be lost in a single battle / event.\nFine Print\nFor the purposes of this question:\nA 'Navy' ship is a sea-going vessel which belongs to the Navy of a nation's Armed Forces.\nA Naval vessel belonging to any nation will be valid for this question.\nAccidental events as a result of 'friendly fire' (e.g. a vessel hitting it's own mine) count towards the resolution. Other accidental events such as a Navy vessel colliding with a merchant vessel or colliding with a harbour structure also count towards the resolution since such events are deemed to be highly unlikely.\nOfficially (stated by Navy sources) decommissioned vessels do not count towards the resolution.\nAuxiliary Navy vessels (including Floating Docks) do not count towards the resolution.\nMoreover:\nSunk. Ship is at the bottom of the Black Sea.\nDestroyed. Ship is catastrophically damaged and likely at the bottom of the Black Sea.\nScuttled. A ship deliberately destroyed / sunk by her own armed forces to prevent capture.\nCaptured. Taken over by opposing forces and successfully taken to a home or occupied port.\nCritically damaged. Damaged to the point where it cannot sail under it's own power (would likely require both a tow to port and be kept there for repairs for a substantial period of time).", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-01\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.637], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.582], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.597], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.597], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.644], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.651], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.682], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.694], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.694], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.678], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.724], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.748], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.744], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.763], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.763], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.784], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.784], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.795], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.754], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.754], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.742], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.734], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.734], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.704], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.701], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.741], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.746], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.756], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.766], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.767], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.776], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.776], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.78], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.778], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.778], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.798], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.798], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.803], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.807], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.809]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17921/winner-of-2023-fifa-womens-world-cup/?sub-question=17951\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-navy-vessel-damaged-drone-attack-ukrainian-source-2023-08-04/\", \"https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1687697529918373889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\", \"https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1687697529918373889\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-ship-olenegorsky-gornyak-drone-strike-novorossiysk-black-sea/\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1687603647591448576?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1687586445387509760\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing\", \"https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1687372189522169856\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-navy-vessel-damaged-drone-attack-ukrainian-source-2023-08-04/\", \"https://twitter.com/capt_navy/status/1687348313790586881?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1555479708778864640?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1686422953339113482?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\"]"}, {"question": "Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18007/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Most good universities in the US have required undergraduate applicants to write admissions essays. As of mid 2023, Harvard and Stanford require the \"first-year essay prompts\" in the Common Application; Harvard also requires a \"Personal Essay\"; Stanford requires 3 \"short essay questions\"; and MIT requires 4 short \"response questions\".\nWith the advent of OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude, and other LLMs, it has been widely reported that students assigned essays (that are not done proctored in the classroom) are commonly turning to AI to write their essays whole cloth, or to provide drafts, outlines, or revisions. There is some speculation that this will cause some universities to drop the essay requirement, though it is unclear whether they will, or when, or which universities.", "date_begin": "2023-07-22", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Education & Research", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT do not require any \"essays\" in their standard undergraduate application for admission for the school year starting in fall 2024.\nFine Print\n\"Essay\" here means at least 100 words of text in response to a question prompt. Doesn't count short entries for factual information such as \"describe your needs for financial support\".\n\"Standard\" here means the default application as seen on the admissions sites (links in background section). It is not relevant for this question if there are exceptional cases where some applicants do / don't have the same requirements.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-24\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.117], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.122], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.112], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.112], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.109], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.127], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.118], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.112], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.112], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.098], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.087], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.081], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.068], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.068], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.068], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.064], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.061], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.053], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.048], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.048], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.047], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.047], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.046], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.042], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.047], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.044], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.043], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.048], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.047], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.046], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.047], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.046], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.047], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.046], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://talk.collegeconfidential.com/t/mit-fall-2024-application-cycle/3643970/18\", \"https://admissions.blog/harvard-reveals-2023-2024-supplemental-short-essay-prompts/\", \"https://admission.stanford.edu/apply/first-year/apply.html\", \"https://mitadmissions.org/apply/firstyear/essays-activities-academics/\", \"https://admissions.blog/harvard-reveals-2023-2024-supplemental-short-essay-prompts/\", \"https://admission.stanford.edu/apply/first-year/apply.html\", \"https://www.teachingexpertise.com/technology/free-plagiarism-checking-sites-for-teachers/#:~:text=Turnitin,%2C%20you're%20in%20luck!\"]"}, {"question": "Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18059/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On July 17, 2023, Russia announced that it had quit the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The Black Sea grain deal had been in force since July of 2022, protecting maritime grain shipments leaving Ukrainian ports.\nFollowing the end of the deal Russia's defense ministry was reported as saying\n. . . that it would deem all ships travelling to Ukraine to be potentially carrying military cargo on behalf of Kyiv and \u201cthe flag countries of such ships will be considered parties to the Ukrainian conflict\u201d.\nDiscussing fallout from the end of the deal, Politico describes approaches Ukraine is undertaking to export grain:\nUkraine has been readying a backup plan to get its grain shipments out without the deal. This hinges in part on a $500 million guarantee fund to cover any damages or expenses incurred by ships moving through the Black Sea and in part on shipping more grain out through Europe\u2019s Danube river.\nBefore the war, a few hundred thousand tons per month were exported via this route. Over the last year, this has increased to 2 million, and there is potential to double this figure, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.\nIn an article for Bloomberg published on July 25, 2023, retired US Navy admiral James Stavridis proposed that US and NATO convoys should protect maritime shipments in the Black Sea.\nT\u00fcrkiye closed the Bosphorus Strait to warships in late February 2022, shortly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, invoking its authority under the 1936 Montreux Convention. Since that time US warships have not been reported to have entered the Black Sea, though in February of 2023 a US warship was reported to have passed through the Dardanelles Strait, entering the Sea of Marmara and stopping near Instanbul and the G\u00f6lc\u00fck Naval Base.\nImage Source: US Energy Information Administration", "date_begin": "2023-07-25", "date_close": "2023-09-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after July 25, 2023, and before September 25, 2023, credible sources report that a US warship has entered the Black Sea.\nFine Print\nTo be considered to have entered the Black Sea the warship must be credibly reported to have passed through the Bosphorus Strait into the Black Sea.\nFor the purposes of this question a \"warship\" will be a ship primarily intended for naval warfare and will include submarines.\nMetaculus may wait for confirmation from multiple sources to resolve the question. If reports conflict or the credibility or clarity of a report is suspect, Metaculus may make a determination as to the appropriate resolution and may resolve the question as Ambiguous.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-26\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.026], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.037], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.034], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.033], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.036], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.036], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.041], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.037], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.037], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.037], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.036], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.039], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.039], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.038], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.038], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.038], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.037], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.038], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.038], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.037], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.046], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.046], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.046], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.047], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.044], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.044], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.044], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.043], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.041], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.034], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.034], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.033], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.033], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.027], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.027], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.027], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.026], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.027], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.021]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_P-8_Poseidon\", \"https://tass.com/world/1671783\", \"https://www.navy.ro/comunicat.php?id=749\", \"https://news.usni.org/2023/07/25/no-pentagon-plans-to-send-assets-to-black-sea-over-collapsed-grain-deal\", \"https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com\", \"https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/News/Article/2369350/uss-roosevelt-completes-operations-in-black-sea/\", \"https://www.forces.net/qe-class-aircraft-carriers/hms-queen-elizabeth-prepares-lead-carrier-strike-group-after-arriving\", \"https://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1936-Convention-Regarding-the-Regime-of-the-Straits-1.pdf\", \"https://news.usni.org/2023/02/03/u-s-destroyer-operating-near-the-black-sea-for-first-time-since-russia-invaded-ukraine#:~:text=Since%20the%20closure%2C%20only%20warships,15%2C%202021.\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2023\"]"}, {"question": "Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18068/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg claimed 30 million users signed up.\nThreads launched on Android and iOS under the name \"Threads, an Instagram App\". As of July 25, there is no way to access Threads content without using iOS, Android, or an emulator of one of those on another operating system.", "date_begin": "2023-07-25", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if, before October 1, 2023 Meta makes available a website to access and post Threads content.\nFine Print\nThe website must be generally available to users of desktop computers using typical web browsers. Requiring emulation of Android or iOS doesn't qualify. The website must be an official Meta website, not a third party with a way of accessing Android or iOS content. The website must be distinctly for Threads, it isn't sufficient if Threads content becomes available from another existing Meta web property like facebook.com or instagram.com.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.458], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.435], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.582], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.582], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.571], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.575], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.579], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.584], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.609], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.624], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.654], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.666], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.665], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.665], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.667], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.668], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.677], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.678], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.672], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.666], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.666], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.666], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.681], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.691], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.718], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.724], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.728], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.733], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.739], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.748], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.748], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.757], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.759], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.762], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.764], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.766], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.767], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.771], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.771], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.773], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.778], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.78], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.78], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.78], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.78], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.776], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.776], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.777], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.778], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.778], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.781], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.781], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.787], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.789], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.789], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.789], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.789], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.789], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.791], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.791], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.791], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.802], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.802], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.801], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.801], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.802], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.802], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.802], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.801], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.802], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.801], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.804], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.803], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.806], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.826], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.834], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.84], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.836], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.839], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.84], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.843], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.848], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.848], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.848]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.threads.net/@mosseri/post/CwVfB2ohqNa\", \"https://www.yahoo.com/news/the-web-version-of-threads-is-finally-here-174909701.html\", \"https://www.threads.net/login\", \"https://www.threads.net/@zuck/post/CwP2yyiL15R/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==\", \"https://www.wsj.com/tech/metas-threads-app-to-launch-web-version-as-rivalry-with-x-enters-new-stage-706e8241?mod=e2tw\", \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/meta-launch-web-version-threads-app-early-next-week-wsj-2023-08-21/?taid=64e2b01757e3580001462d40&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/08/04/metas-threads-to-have-search-and-web-functions-zuckerberg-says-.html\", \"https://www.threads.net/@zuck/post/Cviggu9PdPx/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==\", \"https://piunikaweb.com/2023/07/24/threads-desktop-app-or-web-version-not-coming-anytime-soon/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18069/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Antarctic sea ice is a vital component of the Earth's climate system.\nThe 2023 Antarctic sea ice season set a record low in 2023, with the minimum sea ice extent for the year measuring 136,000 square kilometers less than the previous record low set in 2022.\nSeptember usually represents the maximum for Antarctic sea ice, which on typically covers an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent.\nHowever, the sea ice level in 2023 is at historic lows.\nAfter reaching a record-low summer minimum earlier this year, Antarctic sea ice continues to break records. In the midst of its winter growth phase, it has reached a record-low extent, far below the previous record, for this time of year.\nData archived by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) record Antarctic sea ice extent at 4.5 million square miles (11.7 million square kilometers) as of June 27, 2023. That\u2019s nearly a million square miles (2.6 million square kilometers) below the 1981\u20132010 average, and approaching a half a million square miles (1.2 million square kilometers) below the previous lowest extent for the day, observed in 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-07-25", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves based on the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent reported by the National Snow & Ice Data Center.\nThe question resolves Yes if the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is less on every single day from September 1st, 2023 to September 30th, 2023 compared to the same dates in all years since satellite tracking started in 1979.\nThe question immediately resolves No if the extent of Antarctic Sea Ice for any date between September 1, 2023 and September 30, 2023 exceeds the extent for the same day in any year between 1979 and 2022.\nFine Print\nForecasters exploring the data from the resolution source should be sure to switch the sea ice extent to \"Antarctic.\"", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-31\", 0.018], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.819], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.816], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.805], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.802], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.804], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.791], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.791], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.793], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.793], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.797], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.794], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.786], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.78], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.782], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.782], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.784], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.784], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.772], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.768], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.766], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.758], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.758], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.757], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.782], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.809], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.813], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.803], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.809], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.81], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.809], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.81], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.81], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.82], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.82], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.823], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.828], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.828], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.828], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.829], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.824], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.834], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.855], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.862], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.865], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.867], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.874], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.875], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.877], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.877], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.879], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.877], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.877], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.877], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.873], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.848], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.839], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.839], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.841], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.844], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.855], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.859], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.864], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.869], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.881], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.886], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.894], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.896], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.903], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.907], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.909], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.911], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.913], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.914], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.914], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.917], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.918], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.905], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.901], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.902], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.902], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.904], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.904]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/26/antarctic-sea-ice-hits-record-smashing-low-coverage-area-new-data-show\", \"https://t.co/y7LJie6xff\", \"https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/\", \"https://weatherspark.com/h/m/144751/2023/9/Historical-Weather-in-September-2023-in-McMurdo-Station-Antarctica#Figures-Temperature\", \"https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/antarctica/mcmurdo/ext)\", \"https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/antarctica/neumayer-station-iii/ext)\", \"https://imgur.com/gallery/qSUUcFM\", \"https://two-wrongs.com/update-on-antarctic-sea-ice.html\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18266/geoengineering-via-sulphur-dioxide/\", \"https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth\", \"https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth\", \"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL027057\", \"https://www.climate.gov/media/10322\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katabatic_wind\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynya\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upwelling\", \"https://windy.app/forecast2/spot/373678/Antarctica/statistics\", \"https://windy.app/forecast2/spot/373678/Antarctica\", \"https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/sea-surface-temp_download2_2021.png\", \"https://www.neefusa.org/story/water/warming-ocean\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Circumpolar_Current\", \"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/Thermohaline_circulation.svg\", \"https://salinity.oceansciences.org/smap-salinity.htm\", \"https://salinity.oceansciences.org/maps-global.htm\", \"https://salinity.oceansciences.org/images/maps/smap_RSS_SSS_monthly_sh_2022_05_v5.0.png\", \"https://salinity.oceansciences.org/images/maps/smap_RSS_SSS_monthly_sh_2015_04_v5.0.png\", \"https://www.climate.gov/media/14344\", \"https://youtu.be/InhMCJro6hA\", \"https://discoveringantarctica.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/carbon_dioxide_global_temp-1536x1133.png\", \"https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150967/why-methane-surged-in-2020\", \"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/antarctic-ozone-hole-slightly-smaller-in-2022\", \"https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/Ozone\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/22/black-carbon-pollution-from-tourism-and-research-increasing-antarctic-snowmelt-study-says\", \"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28560-w\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/08/fears-over-antarctic-sea-ice-as-yearly-ozone-layer-hole-forms-very-early\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/29/something-weird-is-going-on-search-for-answers-as-antarctic-sea-ice-stays-at-historic-lows\", \"https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/\", \"https://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-september-2022\", \"https://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-june-2023\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/30/world/antarctic-sea-ice-winter-record-low-climate-intl/index.html\", \"https://noaadata.apps.nsidc.org/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/\", \"https://two-wrongs.com/forecasting-antarctic-sea-ice.html\", \"https://i.xkqr.org/arctic-ice-extent-min.csv\", \"https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1683535568268050432\"]"}, {"question": "Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18090/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called \"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.", "date_begin": "2023-07-26", "date_close": "2024-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if the first attempted replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that is published (pre-print acceptable) confirms the main findings. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.\nA confirmatory replication would have to include the following:\nReproduction of the synthesis of LK-99\nConfirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (126.85C) \u2014 the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting\nConfirmation that the resistivity drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 \u03a9\u00b7cm \u2014 true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature\nTo be considered an attempted replication the research must attempt to replicate all of the above, or demonstrate that one or more of these claims is false through independent testing.\nFine Print\nResolves ambiguous if there are no credible reports of an attempted replication before July 1, 2024\nIf the pre-print is withdrawn from arxiv and a new version of this paper, by one or more of the original authors and which satisfies these resolution criteria, is not published before July 1, 2024, and no independent replication has been performed before July 1, 2024, this question will resolve as NO. A new version of the original paper, as described, will not be considered to be a replication. If the paper is withdrawn and then the first independent replication is published before a new version of the paper is published, this question will resolve according to the results of the independent replication.\nMetaculus will make a determination as to whether a replication satisfies these criteria and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-26\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.329], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.305], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.324], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.322], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.302], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.338], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.343], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.352], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.366], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.347], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.337], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.321], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.323], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.34], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.339], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.324], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.297], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.273], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.279], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.285], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.291], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.284], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.281], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.282], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.283], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.285], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.281], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.278], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.274], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.273], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.274], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.271], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.266], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.263], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.261], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.258], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.256], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.256], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.256], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.254], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.253], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.249], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.246], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.248], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.248], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.247], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.242], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.243], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.238], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.237], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.234], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.234], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.236], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.234], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.233], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.234], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.234], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.236], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.236], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.237], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.239], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.238], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.237], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.238], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.238], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.237], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.236], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.237], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.239], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.238], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.238], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.239], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.239], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.241], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.239], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.239], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.241], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.239], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.238], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.237], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.236], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.237]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/MichaelSFuhrer/status/1686267690770739200\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16892\", \"https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1686215574177841152\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18177/room-temp-superconductor-replicated-by-2025/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13668/high-temperature-superconductor-progress/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18170/commercial-use-of-room-temp-superconductor/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18169/date-for-room-temp-superconductivity/\", \"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.16402\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16802\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13668/high-temperature-superconductor-progress/\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16892\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16802\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16802\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16402\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13668/high-temperature-superconductor-progress/\", \"https://forums.spacebattles.com/threads/claims-of-room-temperature-and-ambient-pressure-superconductor.1106083/page-11?post=94266395#post-94266395\", \"https://eirifu.wordpress.com/2023/07/30/lk-99-superconductor-summary/#sbtable\", \"https://twitter.com/lixiao63191695/status/1685699051638177792?s=46&t=TSqHSGzRC21Ucgl6dIkfpQ\", \"https://twitter.com/TajQuantum/status/1685411936555368449\", \"https://patentcenter.uspto.gov/applications/17249094\", \"https://www.facebook.com/AwanaVPS\", \"https://youtu.be/PLr95AFBRXI,\", \"https://www.newscientist.com/article/2384782-room-temperature-superconductor-breakthrough-met-with-scepticism/\", \"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20230728146700017\", \"https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-we-know-whether-the-room)\", \"https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre?r=amFjaw\", \"https://v.daum.net/v/20230728182738637\", \"https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/viral-new-superconductivity-claims-leave-many-scientists-skeptical/\", \"https://namu.wiki/w/LK-99\", \"https://qcentre.co.kr/)\", \"https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-etymology-of-avatars-unobtanium-180981347/\", \"https://xkcd.com/955/\", \"https://twitter.com/Nas_oqui/status/1684818008848703488\", \"https://twitter.com/bombonthebrain/status/1684823134040363009\", \"https://www.mml2023.org/main/ci_overview.htm)\", \"https://twitter.com/TeraTom_S/status/1684808086547238912\", \"https://www.ntis.go.kr/en/GpIndex.do\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwang_Woo-suk\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korea_University)\", \"https://www.kci.go.kr/kciportal/landing/article.kci?arti_id=ART002955269#none\", \"https://gist.github.com/ConcurrentSquared/c65cbec8a05e72e3e49b91f2ec92236b\", \"https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684691666999951360\", \"https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684635183943659521\", \"https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684538384243458048/photo/1\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14479/predict-01999-with-decimal-forecasting/#:~:text=Forecasters%20have%20long%20sought%20the,of%20a%20percent%20in%20between.\", \"https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684622263339884544?t=TVLgQa4Wq7-mPPxfRFdK4g&s=19\", \"https://twitter.com/Nuuuuuuc/status/1684256044300787712\", \"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\", \"https://twitter.com/andrewmccalip/status/1684433849781202944?s=46&t=nkNF5XvEPFXchpxvubgkQw\", \"https://blog.fefe.de/?ts=9a3f8740\", \"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36888541\", \"https://www.newscientist.com/article/2384782-room-temperature-superconductor-breakthrough-met-with-scepticism/\", \"https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation/#High_temperature_superconductors\", \"https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/breaking-superconductor-news\", \"https://www.wm.edu/as/physics/people/researchfaculty/kim_h.php\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037\", \"https://www.newscientist.com/article/2384782-room-temperature-superconductor-breakthrough-met-with-scepticism/\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_applications_of_superconductivity\", \"https://inews.co.uk/news/science/room-temperature-superconductors-latest-breakthrough-nonsense-2506774\", \"https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18102/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The oil storage vessel FSO Safer holds more than 1.1 million barrels of oil (four times that of Exxon Valdez), and has for the past few years been moored off the coast of Yemen. An operation began on July 25th to remove the oil from the vessel:\nAn international team began siphoning oil out of a decrepit oil tanker off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, the United Nations chief said, a crucial step in a complex salvage operation.\nHowever,\nThe vessel has not been maintained for eight years and its structural integrity is compromised, making it at risk of breaking up or exploding.\nAs of July 25, the oil is,\nbeing moved to another vessel which had been purchased by the UN. The oil transfer came after months of on-site preparatory work and is scheduled to be completed in less than three weeks.\nThe United Nations (UN) says the transfer\nwill continue round-the-clock over the next 19 days.\nThis puts the estimated last date of transfer on August 13.", "date_begin": "2023-07-26", "date_close": "2023-08-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that the oil transfer is completed before August 14, 2023. It resolves No otherwise.\nFine Print\nThis question is concerned with reports about the transfer of oil being completed, cleaning residue from tanks and other follow-up operations are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.\nThis question will resolve as Yes if there are credible reports that the transfer has been completed, regardless of whether an oil leak or other disaster occurs.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-29\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.662], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.625], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.609], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.604], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.607], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.633], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.638], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.634], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.635], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.639], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.633], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.651], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.652], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.662], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.659], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.655], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.657], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.659], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.663], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.667], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.667], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.669], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.677], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.681], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.683], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.683], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.683], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.699], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.734], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.769], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.795], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.805], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.806], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.814], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.814], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.819], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.839], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.841], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.843], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.847], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.848], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.853], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.853], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.859], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.859], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.86], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.864], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.864], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.867], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.866], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.866], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.867], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.867], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.867], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.872], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.879], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.884], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.892], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.894], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.894], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.896], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.899], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.9], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.9], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.905], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.905], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.905], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.907], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.907], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.905], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.906], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.903], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.903], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.903], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.905], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.91], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.907], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.908], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.908], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.908], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.908], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.914], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.915], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.915], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.916], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.918], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.919], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.909], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.91], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.91], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.909], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.908], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.905], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.905]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.undp.org/press-releases/united-nations-completes-removal-oil-decaying-tanker-red-sea\", \"https://twitter.com/DavidGressly/status/1690020660406349825\", \"https://bnn.network/breaking-news/climate-environment/yemens-safer-oil-tanker-rescue-in-final-stages-report-flags-houthi-exploitation-concerns/\", \"https://www.arabnews.com/node/2352391/middle-east\", \"https://arab.news/6ca93\", \"https://www.arabnews.com/node/2352391/middle-east\", \"https://english.almayadeen.net/news/environment/unloading-oil-from-yemens-safer-tanker-in-final-stages:-un\", \"https://twitter.com/ASteiner/status/1687929206326398976?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/ASteiner/status/1686841245312614401?s=20\", \"https://gcaptain.com/un-secures-euronav-tanker-to-offload-decaying-fso-safer-in-red-sea/\", \"https://gcaptain.com/un-secures-euronav-tanker-to-offload-decaying-fso-safer-in-red-sea/\", \"https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/asia/news/marine/industry-finalises-coverage-binding-for-fso-safer-oil-transfer-operation-449010.aspx\", \"https://twitter.com/UNDP_Sweden/status/1686668372929318912?s=20\", \"https://www.barrons.com/news/most-oil-removed-from-decaying-tanker-off-yemen-un-793569af\", \"https://boskalis.com/safer\"]"}, {"question": "Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18133/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called \"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.\nBackground information copied from this related question", "date_begin": "2023-07-28", "date_close": "2023-08-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before August 4, 2023, credible sources report that a preprint or paper describing a complete replication attempt of the LK-99 results has been published. To be considered a complete replication attempt the paper must test the main findings of the original paper, including all of the following:\nThe synthesis of LK-99\nTesting whether the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (127 C) \u2014 the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting\nTesting whether the resistance drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 \u03a9\u00b7cm \u2014 true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature\nThe results of the replication are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.\nFine Print\nTo be considered a preprint or a paper for the purposes of this question the attempted replication must be complete and the methodology and results must be published in a manuscript accessible by the public.\nLater retractions or claims questioning the veracity of the replication attempt will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question, it will resolve according to the first assessment made by Metaculus.\nMetaculus may rely on reporting from credible sources to assess whether these criteria have been met, and for papers not published in English Metaculus may use credible reporting or machine translation as appropriate. In the event it is unclear whether a paper has met these requirements Metaculus will make a determination as to the appropriate resolution, including waiting for further confirmation, as needed, or may resolve the question as Ambiguous.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-29\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.463], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.288], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.394], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.451], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.477], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.519], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.489], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.489], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.473], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.458], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.463], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.461], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.458], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.453], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.459], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.475], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.472], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.473], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.471], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.468], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.463], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.463], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.463], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.456], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.46], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.459], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.457], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.461], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.461], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.455], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.455], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.451], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.448], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.452], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.451], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.444], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.447], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.447], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.449], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.446], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.432], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.423], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.421], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.428], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.427], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.419], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.417], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.421], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.421], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.408], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.403], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.403], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.402], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.394], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.394], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.393], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.391], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.391], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.391], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.388], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.386], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.383], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.388], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.389], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.385], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.385], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.386], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.381], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.379], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.378], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.374], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.373], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.376], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.374], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.373], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.374], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.372], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.371], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.369], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.368], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.365], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.363], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.363], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.366], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.382]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/Robert_Palgrave/status/1686394147773530112\", \"https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.12037.pdf.)\", \"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.16402\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16802\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18177/room-temp-superconductor-replicated-by-2025/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13668/high-temperature-superconductor-progress/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18170/commercial-use-of-room-temp-superconductor/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18169/date-for-room-temp-superconductivity/\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16802\", \"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16402\", \"https://forums.spacebattles.com/threads/claims-of-room-temperature-and-ambient-pressure-superconductor.1106083/page-11?post=94266395#post-94266395\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law\", \"https://freakonomics.com/podcast/season-12-episode-36/\", \"https://www.twitch.tv/andrewmccalip/videos)\"]"}, {"question": "Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18161/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On July 26, 2023, Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum was deposed in a military coup. According to Al Jazeera:\nWest African countries have imposed sanctions on Niger\u2019s new military leaders, threatening to use force if they fail to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum within a week, after the latest coup in the Sahel region raised alarm on the continent.\n. . .\nAnd the African Union has given the military in Niger two weeks to restore \u201cconstitutional authority\u201d.", "date_begin": "2023-07-30", "date_close": "2023-08-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that Mohamed Bazoum has been effectively re-instated as President of Niger before August 31, 2023, otherwise it will resolve No.\nFine Print\nFor the purposes of this question \"effectively re-instated\" will be defined as credible sources reporting that Mohamed Bazoum holds the presidency and is capable of exerting presidential authority. Metaculus will make an assessment of whether Bazoum is capable of exerting presidential authority based on reports from credible sources. Characterizations from credible sources similar to those listed below may be considered as strong evidence. Note that this list is not exhaustive:\nBazoum has returned to power\nThe coup has failed\nThe constitution has been reinstated\nIn the event reports conflict or are unclear Metaculus may resolve the question as ambiguous.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.154], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.178], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.182], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.199], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.202], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.178], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.172], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.162], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.147], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.147], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.138], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.123], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.119], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.113], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.108], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.098], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.096], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.096], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.089], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.092], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.091], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.087], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.082], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.078], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.078], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.077], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.077], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.077], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.076], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.073], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.077], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.076], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.076], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.077], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.077], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.076], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.076], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.073], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.063], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.063], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.063], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.063], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.062], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.049], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.049], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.049], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.048], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.048], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.047], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.047], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.047], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.047], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.043], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.043], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.043], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.044], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.044], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.043], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.043], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.043], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.043], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.041], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.041], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.041], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.041], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.041], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.039], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.039]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/west-african-leaders-meet-niger-options-military-junta-102157735\", \"https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1689671385642147840?s=20\", \"https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-jihadis-west-africa-9032a0e1161551ffcfde4b785f6cf74a?taid=64d5091599e3c900016ca6cc&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-10/niger-coup-leaders-cut-off-food-water-power-supplies-to-ousted-president?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&in_source=embedded-checkout-banner\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_Nigerien_general_election\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/03/mohamed-bazoum-coup-niger-democracy/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Niger#Ethnic_groups\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/aug/08/explainer-whats-behind-the-niger-coup\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/10/17/josep-borrell-eu-racist-gardener\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/07/politics/niger-military-junta-nuland-meeting/index.html\", \"https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/08/07/after-nigers-coup-the-drums-of-war-are-growing-louder\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66430113\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1687514678505721872\", \"https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1687245357145550848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1687245357145550848%7Ctwgr%5Ea69b99091496649266c53a0c1411e1c5649fb08e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaculus.com%2Fquestions%2F18181%2Fecowas-intervention-2023%2F\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/28/niger-general-tchiani-named-head-of-transitional-government-after-coup\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup/\"]"}, {"question": "Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years))", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18179/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "PEPFAR -- the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief -- is summarized by Wikipedia as follows:\nThe United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic and help save the lives of those suffering from the disease. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, as of May 2020, PEPFAR has provided about $90 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic.[1] PEPFAR is implemented by a combination of U.S. government agencies in over 50 countries and overseen by the Global AIDS Coordinator at the United States Department of State.[2] As of 2023, PEPFAR has saved over 25 million lives,[3][4] primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.[1][5]\nSince its inception, it has been repeatedly extended on bipartisan grounds, most recently for five years by the PEPFAR Extension Act of 2018. That extension is due to expire on September 30th, 2023. Controversy has arisen on account of perceived concerns that the Biden Administration may try to use PEPFAR to fund or promote its own ideological priorities:\nLaunched by President George W. Bush in 2003, PEPFAR aims at delivering antiretroviral (ARV) drugs to people with HIV/AIDS and preventing further transmission. It has resulted in a dramatic increase in life expectancy in Africa. Absent a cure for the disease, people on ARVs generally must remain on the drugs the rest of their lives. The United States currently provides treatment for 20 million people, mostly in Africa, through the program.\nPEPFAR has long had pro-life support from Catholics and Protestants, including from African faith-based health providers. But debates about terms like \u201cfamily planning\u201d and \u201creproductive health\u201d in language around PEPFAR have always been sticking points.\nThey appear to be especially sticky now. Some pro-life groups reacted strongly to a recent PEPFAR document that said the program would integrate \u201csexual reproductive health\u201d into efforts to build up local health systems for HIV/AIDS treatment.\nThis week, the Biden administration added a footnote in the document to clarify that reproductive health under PEPFAR meant only \u201cHIV prevention, testing, and treatment services,\u201d \u201ceducation, testing and treatment for sexually transmitted infections,\u201d cancer screening and treatment, and \u201cgender-based violence prevention and care.\u201d\nOrganizations like the Family Research Council and the Heritage Foundation have argued against a simple extension on the above grounds, as well as on grounds of perceived political discrimination:\nPEPFAR has also become increasingly politicized, with the Biden administration and PEPFAR partners seeking to add their domestic social priorities (such as abortion on demand and the promotion of radical gender ideology) to a program intended to provide lifesaving assistance for the poorest and most marginalized. Using the massive financial power of PEPFAR in poor countries to force an alien social agenda on unwilling and marginalized communities amounts to cultural imperialism and neocolonialism. It also severely damages the soft-power relationships needed to combat a rising China, which is expanding in Africa and doesn\u2019t require its partners to violate their core beliefs to receive aid.\nAn analysis of political contribution data from the Federal Elections Committee explains why supposedly nonpartisan development agencies and government-funded development contractors and NGOs all seem to promote this leftist agenda, even at the expense of the overall health of the most marginalized. Almost all employee contributions from PEPFAR implementers went to Democratic Party candidates and causes. State Department employees gave 93 percent of their contributions to Democrats, USAID employees gave them 96 percent, and the largest PEPFAR contractor, Chemonics, gave 97 percent to Democrats, while the large non-profits involved gave 99.8 percent.\nThis massive disparity suggests systemic and institutionalized political discrimination.\n...\nBefore providing further funding to PEPFAR, Congress should require reform that transitions this 20-year emergency program into a development program focused on creating local capacity to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS. Congress should require that the U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator (who is responsible for managing PEPFAR) provide an explanation for the political discrimination in hiring by these agencies and organizations and a plan to redress the imbalance.\nAll of this has created concern that PEPFAR may either fail to be extended, or may be extended, but only for a shorter term than the previous five years.", "date_begin": "2023-08-01", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based upon whether PEPFAR is extended by an act of Congress which is then signed into law by the President of the United States before September 30th, 2023. It will resolve YES for a \"short-term extension\" if the duration of the approved extension is less than five years, YES for a \"full extension\" if the duration of the approved extension is five years or more, and NO for both otherwise.\nFine Print\nIt should be noted that \"short-term extension\" and \"full extension\" are mutually exclusive with regards to a potential positive resolution.\nAn act of Congress may be considered an extension of PEPFAR so long as it amends Section 101 of the United States Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Act of 2003 (22 U.S.C. 7611) by striking the expiration year and/or date and inserting a new one, AND leaves intact its legal mechanism for the provision of HIV/AIDS relief in the original act. Other alterations are compatible with a positive resolution.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-11\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.229], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.252], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.281], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.281], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.291], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.313], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.322], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.321], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.321], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.321], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.339], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.339], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.364], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.364], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.364], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.369], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.369], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.322], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.322], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.323], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.322]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years))", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18180/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "PEPFAR -- the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief -- is summarized by Wikipedia as follows:\nThe United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic and help save the lives of those suffering from the disease. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, as of May 2020, PEPFAR has provided about $90 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic.[1] PEPFAR is implemented by a combination of U.S. government agencies in over 50 countries and overseen by the Global AIDS Coordinator at the United States Department of State.[2] As of 2023, PEPFAR has saved over 25 million lives,[3][4] primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.[1][5]\nSince its inception, it has been repeatedly extended on bipartisan grounds, most recently for five years by the PEPFAR Extension Act of 2018. That extension is due to expire on September 30th, 2023. Controversy has arisen on account of perceived concerns that the Biden Administration may try to use PEPFAR to fund or promote its own ideological priorities:\nLaunched by President George W. Bush in 2003, PEPFAR aims at delivering antiretroviral (ARV) drugs to people with HIV/AIDS and preventing further transmission. It has resulted in a dramatic increase in life expectancy in Africa. Absent a cure for the disease, people on ARVs generally must remain on the drugs the rest of their lives. The United States currently provides treatment for 20 million people, mostly in Africa, through the program.\nPEPFAR has long had pro-life support from Catholics and Protestants, including from African faith-based health providers. But debates about terms like \u201cfamily planning\u201d and \u201creproductive health\u201d in language around PEPFAR have always been sticking points.\nThey appear to be especially sticky now. Some pro-life groups reacted strongly to a recent PEPFAR document that said the program would integrate \u201csexual reproductive health\u201d into efforts to build up local health systems for HIV/AIDS treatment.\nThis week, the Biden administration added a footnote in the document to clarify that reproductive health under PEPFAR meant only \u201cHIV prevention, testing, and treatment services,\u201d \u201ceducation, testing and treatment for sexually transmitted infections,\u201d cancer screening and treatment, and \u201cgender-based violence prevention and care.\u201d\nOrganizations like the Family Research Council and the Heritage Foundation have argued against a simple extension on the above grounds, as well as on grounds of perceived political discrimination:\nPEPFAR has also become increasingly politicized, with the Biden administration and PEPFAR partners seeking to add their domestic social priorities (such as abortion on demand and the promotion of radical gender ideology) to a program intended to provide lifesaving assistance for the poorest and most marginalized. Using the massive financial power of PEPFAR in poor countries to force an alien social agenda on unwilling and marginalized communities amounts to cultural imperialism and neocolonialism. It also severely damages the soft-power relationships needed to combat a rising China, which is expanding in Africa and doesn\u2019t require its partners to violate their core beliefs to receive aid.\nAn analysis of political contribution data from the Federal Elections Committee explains why supposedly nonpartisan development agencies and government-funded development contractors and NGOs all seem to promote this leftist agenda, even at the expense of the overall health of the most marginalized. Almost all employee contributions from PEPFAR implementers went to Democratic Party candidates and causes. State Department employees gave 93 percent of their contributions to Democrats, USAID employees gave them 96 percent, and the largest PEPFAR contractor, Chemonics, gave 97 percent to Democrats, while the large non-profits involved gave 99.8 percent.\nThis massive disparity suggests systemic and institutionalized political discrimination.\n...\nBefore providing further funding to PEPFAR, Congress should require reform that transitions this 20-year emergency program into a development program focused on creating local capacity to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS. Congress should require that the U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator (who is responsible for managing PEPFAR) provide an explanation for the political discrimination in hiring by these agencies and organizations and a plan to redress the imbalance.\nAll of this has created concern that PEPFAR may either fail to be extended, or may be extended, but only for a shorter term than the previous five years.", "date_begin": "2023-08-01", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based upon whether PEPFAR is extended by an act of Congress which is then signed into law by the President of the United States before September 30th, 2023. It will resolve YES for a \"short-term extension\" if the duration of the approved extension is less than five years, YES for a \"full extension\" if the duration of the approved extension is five years or more, and NO for both otherwise.\nFine Print\nIt should be noted that \"short-term extension\" and \"full extension\" are mutually exclusive with regards to a potential positive resolution.\nAn act of Congress may be considered an extension of PEPFAR so long as it amends Section 101 of the United States Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Act of 2003 (22 U.S.C. 7611) by striking the expiration year and/or date and inserting a new one, AND leaves intact its legal mechanism for the provision of HIV/AIDS relief in the original act. Other alterations are compatible with a positive resolution.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-05\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.893], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.918], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.932], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.932], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.879], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.871], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.842], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.851], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.851], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.851], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.851], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.829], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.829], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.825], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.811], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.811], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.811], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.805], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.805], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.697], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.672], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.653], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.645], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.645], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.648], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.643], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.643], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.638], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.628], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.623], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.575]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18181/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On 26 July 2023, a coup occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS issued an ultimatum on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.", "date_begin": "2023-08-01", "date_close": "2023-08-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before August 12, 2023, ECOWAS has announced a military intervention in Niger to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule, and there are credible media reports of troops acting as part of an ECOWAS mission entering or attempting to enter the territory of Niger.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.139], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.118], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.128], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.137], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.154], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.178], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.183], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.186], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.197], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.207], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.283], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.283], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.288], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.291], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.308], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.343], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.352], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.385], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.379], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.332], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.317], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.309], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.302], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.294], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.287], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.283], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.274], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.274], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.271], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.265], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.263], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.263], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.247], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.254], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.252], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.252], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.241], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.241], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.239], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.244], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.238], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.221], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.216], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.199], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.189], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.189], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.19], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.183], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.183], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.184], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.183], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.183], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.178], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.177], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.172], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.168], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.169], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.166], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.164], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.156], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.156], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.153], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.153], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.154], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.152], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.146], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.142], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.138], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.141], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.147], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.139], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.133], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.121], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.116], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.103], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.1]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66478430\", \"https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/615504-niger-coup-ecowas-court-asked-to-stop-tinubu-other-west-african-leaders-from-deploying-military-troops.html\", \"https://www.arise.tv/civil-group-invokes-ecowas-court-protocals-against-tinubu-seeks-to-stop-military-action-against-niger-republic/\", \"https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1689761982461734912\", \"https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1689729867984560129\", \"https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1689671385642147840?s=20\", \"https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-jihadis-west-africa-9032a0e1161551ffcfde4b785f6cf74a?taid=64d5091599e3c900016ca6cc&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-10/niger-coup-leaders-cut-off-food-water-power-supplies-to-ousted-president?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&in_source=embedded-checkout-banner\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66436797\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1689007258846498824\", \"https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1688548583216156672?s=20\", \"https://ecowas.int/authority-of-heads-of-states/\", \"https://ecowas.int/institutions/the-commission/\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1688324475731742721?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1688299731934412801\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/deadline-for-niger-coup-leaders-to-back-down-passes-without-intervention-c6e85794?mod=world_lead_pos2\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1688285318158458880\", \"https://twitter.com/AJABreaking/status/1688282975090118657\", \"https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1687949602035806208\", \"https://fb.watch/memFydO4xF/\", \"https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/614494-niger-coup-nigerian-senators-reject-tinubus-request-for-troops-deployment.html\", \"https://twitter.com/felixtiih/status/1687835733736775680\", \"https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230805-pressure-mounts-on-niger-coup-leaders-as-deadline-nears\", \"https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1687832443896692736\", \"https://ng.opera.news/ng/en/politics/baa11183ae0b25b4fc156ae61a0c38a7\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/8/1/timeline-a-history-of-ecowas-military-interventions-in-three-decades\", \"https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1687579062984675333?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1687514678505721872\", \"https://leadership.ng/niger-atiku-cautions-against-military-engagement-advocates-dialogue/\", \"https://fij.ng/article/explainer-does-tinubu-need-senate-approval-before-deploying-nigerian-troops-to-niger/\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1687465196724359169\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/04/nigeria-ecowas-ready-to-flex-muscle-niger-coup-russia\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/04/diplomatic-mission-to-niger-fails-to-secure-release-of-ousted-president\", \"https://twitter.com/ShehuSani/status/1685933594504577024?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1687263703513600000?s=20\", \"https://www.dw.com/en/niger-how-might-an-ecowas-military-intervention-unfold/a-66431072\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1687239248603209728?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1687245357145550848\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1687241210576941056?s=20\", \"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2oWJl6WYAInMkm?format=jpg&name=large\", \"https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1686815733999616009?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1686961929254731776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1686961929254731776%7Ctwgr%5E58c6e8cb0e5c2f71cb4cf99bbfebd8e9ecb02a7f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcommunity.defconwarningsystem.com%2Fthreads%2Fniger-coup.20050%2Fpage-2\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1686126177159659521?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1686126177159659521%7Ctwgr%5E82f9a6c245bcf068b5fa778cbc133ef7e3084780%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcommunity.defconwarningsystem.com%2Fthreads%2Fniger-coup.20050%2Fpage-2\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup/\"]"}, {"question": "Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18186/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The resolution criteria and some of the background have been copied and edited from this shorter term question.\nOn 26 July 2023, a coup occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS issued an ultimatum on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.\nECOWAS has a history of military intervention in local conflicts with a potential for regional destabilization, including in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and The Gambia.\nOn August 6th the deadline had passed, and as of August 9, 2023, ECOWAS has not launched a military intervention, saying it will hold a second emergency summit on Thursday August 10th.", "date_begin": "2023-08-01", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before October 1, 2023, ECOWAS has announced a military intervention in Niger to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule, and there are credible media reports of troops acting as part of an ECOWAS mission entering or attempting to enter the territory of Niger.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.668], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.621], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.587], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.576], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.56], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.549], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.546], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.546], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.527], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.512], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.509], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.497], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.481], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.472], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.47], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.472], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.474], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.471], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.465], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.445], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.438], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.428], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.418], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.399], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.393], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.372], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.364], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.363], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.356], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.339], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.311], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.292], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.279], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.279], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.265], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.263], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.259], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.253], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.249], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.249], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.246], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.245], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.212], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.201], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.197], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.196], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.193], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.193], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.188], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.184], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.177], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.177], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.176], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.176], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.167], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.167], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.166], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.166], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.166], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.164], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.162], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.147], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.142], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.141], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.139], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.139], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.139], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.136], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.136], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.131], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.126], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.126], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.123]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mali-niger-burkina-faso-sign-sahel-security-pact-2023-09-16/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/french-ambassador-niger-being-held-hostage-by-junta-macron-says-2023-09-15/?taid=6504a9bdfee5c1000188087d&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/14/us-military-resumes-drone-crewed-aircraft-operations-in-post-coup-niger\", \"https://ng.usembassy.gov/readout-of-president-bidens-engagement-with-nigerian-president-bola-tinubu/\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/10/niger-says-france-amassing-troops-equipment-in-ecowas-states\", \"https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1696746367656305130?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1696746367656305130%7Ctwgr%5E6dfdb0fad4ca7bf4c9ebc83361837861f2378032%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metaculus.com%2Fquestions%2F17829%2Fcoup-detat-likelihood%2Fcomments\", \"https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695936749942219167\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountains_of_Kong\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-22/no-one-wants-to-go-to-war-over-niger-crisis-ecowas-envoy-says#xj4y7vzkg\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/west-african-militaries-meet-finalise-possible-niger-intervention-2023-08-18/\", \"https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1691738496904339953?s=20\", \"https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-leaders-president-bazoum-treason-1e54fa565ec0c659fc233cc695d7de21\", \"https://www.euronews.com/2023/08/10/ecowas-orders-deployment-of-force-to-restore-constitutional-order-in-niger\", \"https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/615504-niger-coup-ecowas-court-asked-to-stop-tinubu-other-west-african-leaders-from-deploying-military-troops.html\", \"https://www.arise.tv/civil-group-invokes-ecowas-court-protocals-against-tinubu-seeks-to-stop-military-action-against-niger-republic/\", \"https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1689761982461734912\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1689731265019129856\", \"https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1689671385642147840?s=20\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18181/ecowas-intervention-2023/\"]"}, {"question": "Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18190/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Former President Donald Trump was indicted for the third time on August 1, 2023, on felony charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Six anonymous co-conspirators are listed in the indictment. While the co-conspirators are anonymous, the details in the indictment are sufficient to allege their identities. CNN alleges that the known co-conspirators are as follows:\nCo-conspirator 1: Rudy Giuliani\nCo-conspirator 2: John Eastman\nCo-conspirator 3: Sidney Powell\nCo-conspirator 4: Jeffrey Clark\nCo-conspirator 5: Kenneth Chesebro\nCo-conspirator 6: identity unknown", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-08-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after August 2, 2023 and before August 11, 2023, credible sources report that any of the following people have been indicted for a federal felony:\nRudy Giuliani\nJohn Eastman\nSidney Powell\nJeffrey Clark\nKenneth Chesebro\nAny federal felony indictment qualifies, and need not be directly related to Donald Trump's election interference indictment.\nFine Print\nWhether the indictment is sealed or not is immaterial, only whether credible sources report that one of the listed persons has been indicted.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-03\", 0.49], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.553], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.514], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.479], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.466], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.459], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.422], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.422], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.418], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.393], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.358], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.348], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.338], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.346], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.343], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.343], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.344], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.338], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.326], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.311], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.299], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.273], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.264], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.258], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.233], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.227], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.224], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.217], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.207], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.194], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.179], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.173], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.173], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.168], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.166], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.164], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.163], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.162], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.159], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.159], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.153], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.146], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.146], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.141], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.131], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.127], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.117], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.117], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.116], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.114], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.113], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.113], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.109], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.109], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.109], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.108], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.106], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.106], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.103], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.102], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.102], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.087], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.086], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.086], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.083], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.082], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.082], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.079], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.078], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.074]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/07/eastman-trump-disbarment-postpone-00110131\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/08/03/1191587086/jan-6-trump-case-co-conspirators\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the \"reasonableness\" law before October 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18191/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On July 24, 2023, Israel passed a new law that weakens the power of the courts. Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\nThe new law amends Israel's Basic Law regarding the judiciary. Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the Knesset has passed a series of Basic Laws that \"established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual.\" The translated full text of the new law reads:\nNotwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be heard on September 12, 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before October 1, 2023, credible sources report that the Israeli High Court has issued a ruling on the \"reasonableness\" law. The ruling must either uphold or strike down the law in whole or in part; a ruling not on the merits, such as freezing or delaying implementation, does not qualify.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-03\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.44], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.464], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.477], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.461], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.458], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.458], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.456], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.449], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.438], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.433], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.417], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.397], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.403], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.415], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.415], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.405], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.404], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.403], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.407], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.407], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.402], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.396], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.395], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.394], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.396], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.396], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.398], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.398], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.392], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.393], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.382], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.374], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.379], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.37], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.37], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.365], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.364], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.364], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.364], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.361], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.362], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.344], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.342], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.338], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.338], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.333], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.332], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.32], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.32], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.317], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.319], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.313], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.312], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.31], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.311], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.311], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.307], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.308], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.307], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.307], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.307], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.301], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.302], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.303], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.297], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.294], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.293], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.292], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.291], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.288], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.287], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.209], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.188], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.181], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.178], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.177], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.169], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.168], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.168], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.162], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.156], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.151], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.151], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.149], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.148], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.148], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.149], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.137], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.133]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-780303\", \"https://www.heritagefl.com/story/2023/09/22/news/what-you-need-to-know-as-israels-supreme-court-begins-debating-law-limiting-its-power/18828.html\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/supreme-court-rejects-gender-divider-for-yom-kippur-prayers-at-central-tel-aviv-square\", \"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israels-supreme-court-delays-controversial-judicial-overhaul-hearing-after-attorney-general-opposes-plan\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/at-crucial-hearing-judges-challenge-assertion-they-cant-intervene-in-basic-laws/\", \"https://www.dw.com/en/israel-contentious-judicial-reforms-have-their-day-in-court/a-66763427\", \"https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ruling\", \"https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-756046\", \"https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-08-22/ty-article/.premium/high-court-rejects-governments-request-to-delay-hearing-on-key-judicial-overhaul-bill/0000018a-1c4a-df73-a5eb-5d7b3a2d0000#:~:text=Israel%27s%20High%20Court%20of%20Justice,repeal%20of%20the%20reasonableness%20standard.\", \"https://twitter.com/edrormba/status/1692647524241207463?s=20\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/\", \"https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-08-20/ty-article/.premium/netanyahus-govt-seeks-to-delay-high-court-hearing-on-key-judicial-coup-legislation/0000018a-0f51-d773-af9a-3fd392690000\", \"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4rg4n9vr\", \"https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1253265\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_cascade\", \"https://www.calcalist.co.il/local_news/article/sk6dhvrsh\", \"https://www.mei.edu/publications/amid-long-hot-summer-israel-finds-itself-uncharted-territory)\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_Israel#Current_judges\", \"https://supreme.court.gov.il/sites/en/Pages/home.aspx\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/high-court-issues-procedural-injunction-against-governments-reasonableness-law/\", \"https://versa.cardozo.yu.edu/\", \"https://versa.cardozo.yu.edu/opinions/adalah-legal-center-arab-minority-rights-israel-v-state-attorney%E2%80%99s-office-%E2%80%93-cyber\", \"https://versa.cardozo.yu.edu/opinions/ben-meir-v-prime-minister-0\", \"https://versa.cardozo.yu.edu/opinions/movement-quality-government-israel-v-speaker-knesset\", \"https://versa.cardozo.yu.edu/opinions/gabber-v-attorney-general\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Israeli High Court uphold the \"reasonableness\" law?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18192/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On July 24, 2023, Israel passed a new law that weakens the power of the courts. Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\nThe new law amends Israel's Basic Law regarding the judiciary. Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the Knesset has passed a series of Basic Laws that \"established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual.\" The translated full text of the new law reads:\nNotwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be heard on September 12, 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-12-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that the High Court of Israel upholds the \"reasonableness\" law. To be considered upheld the court must reject the petitions against the law or otherwise issue a final ruling that allows the law to remain in effect. An interim ruling not directly on the merits, such as freezing or delaying implementation, does not qualify.\nFine Print\nIf no such ruling is issued before October 1, 2024, this question will be annulled.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-11\", 0.333], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.534], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.534], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.547], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.497], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.497], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.497], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.513], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.508], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.484], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.484], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.546], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.512], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.508], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.508], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.499], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.496], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.469], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.413], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.401], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.372], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.362], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.356], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.356], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.336], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.324], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.309], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.295], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.272], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.269], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.269], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.266], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.259], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.262], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.256], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.256], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.241], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.254], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.24], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.235], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.233], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.227], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.219], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.219], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.217], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.217], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.226], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.219], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.219], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.219], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.241], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.241], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.238], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.239], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.253], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.251], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.248], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.247], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.247], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.244], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.235], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.233], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.227], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.227], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.227], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.224], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.221], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.219], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.218], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.217], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.218], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.228], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.228], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.246], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.248], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.242], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.239], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.237]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/01/middleeast/israel-court-judicial-overhaul-intl/index.html\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/01/middleeast/israel-court-judicial-overhaul-intl/index.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-supreme-court-strikes-down-disputed-law-that-limited-court-oversight-2024-01-01/\", \"https://www.gov.il/he/departments/news/spokesmenmessage01012024\", \"https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-780303\", \"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-780355\", \"https://www.swiftcentre.org/israeli-judicial-reform-and-protests/\", \"https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/benjamin-netanyahu-yair-lapid-and-benny-gantz-poised-to-form-unity-government-3hIEjV3nQ1XmO9SR0xPuOp\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prX5ctVAI1w\"]"}, {"question": "Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18231/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "In the midst of increasing legal challenges, Donald Trump remains the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024.\nTrump can win the nomination via the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary.\nThe first major event of the Primary is the first sanctioned debate. Seven candidates have qualified, including Trump. However, Trump has not said whether he will participate in the debate. In July, he said in an interview:\nRonald Reagan didn\u2019t do it and a lot of other people didn\u2019t do it. When you have a big lead, you don\u2019t do it.\nWe have a lead of 50 and 60 points in some cases. \u2026 You\u2019re leading people by 50 and 60 points, you say why would you be doing a debate? It\u2019s actually not fair. Why would you let somebody that\u2019s at zero or one or two or three be popping you with questions?", "date_begin": "2023-08-04", "date_close": "2023-08-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if Donald Trump is on the debate stage as a participant for the first Republican presidential debate, which is currently scheduled for August 23, 2023 in Milwaukee, WI.\nFine Print\nIf the date of the debate is moved, or if the scheduled debate is cancelled, the question resolves based on whether Trump participates in the first debate of the 2024 presidential election season that is sanctioned by the Republican National Committee.\nIf no debates are held, the question is annulled.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.326], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.322], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.346], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.316], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.316], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.331], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.332], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.329], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.332], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.338], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.343], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.337], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.329], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.329], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.326], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.327], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.336], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.336], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.339], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.342], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.341], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.341], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.347], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.348], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.348], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.346], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.346], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.346], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.348], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.346], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.347], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.346], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.342], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.337], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.337], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.341], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.332], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.333], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.333], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.333], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.334], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.333], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.331], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.329], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.328], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.321], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.311], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.307], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.296], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.286], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.272], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.262], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.234], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.222], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.211], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.207], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.201], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.196], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.182], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.177], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.172], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.171], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.167], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.166], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.163], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.156], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.153], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.152], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.152], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.148], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.141], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.131], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.129], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.126], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.126], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.126], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.124], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.124], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.122], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.118], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.117], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.117]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1694051583099592957\", \"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110924112193729328\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/trump-debate-tucker-carlson.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230818&instance_id=100383&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=213435118&segment_id=142378&te=1&user_id=69684976bf071ca3ad9df51a3088a8f2\", \"https://apnews.com/article/debate-republican-president-trump-pence-haley-desantis-d3192137ee265d8455ff8af64a5f88ef\", \"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110907855329090048\", \"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110907680862750579\", \"https://abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-legal-advisers-urge-cancel-press-conference-refute/story?id=102336380&cid=social_twitter_abcn\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/16/politics/trump-debate-counterprogramming/index.html\", \"https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110893712805150244\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/15/us/politics/trump-georgia-indictment-annotated.html\", \"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-georgia-indictment-rcna98900\", \"https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1691295137425440768\", \"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/gop-candidates-prepare-possibility-trump-first-debate-rcna99351\", \"https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1689426340951281665\", \"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/09/trump-2024-debate-00110442\", \"https://twitter.com/alx/status/1688986847769161728\"]"}, {"question": "Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18311/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "CNBC reports:\nRussian President Vladimir Putin is weighing whether to attend his first in-person meeting with Western leaders since his forces invaded Ukraine in 2022, a Kremlin source tells NBC News.\nPutin still hasn\u2019t ruled out appearing in person at the G20 meeting of major economies on Sept. 9-10 in the Indian capital, New Delhi, according to a Kremlin official who did not want to be named because he does not make public statements.", "date_begin": "2023-08-10", "date_close": "2023-09-08", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves Yes if credible media report that Putin has attended for the G20 summit in person, even if he is not present for the entire duration of the event. Joining via video conference would not qualify for a positive resolution.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-12\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.395], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.298], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.303], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.294], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.277], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.274], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.271], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.265], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.258], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.256], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.256], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.259], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.259], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.259], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.259], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.258], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.257], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.258], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.253], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.248], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.248], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.246], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.246], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.242], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.244], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.244], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.236], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.228], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.224], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.221], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.216], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.212], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.172], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.151], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.144], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.112], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.111], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.109], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.106], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.097], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.096], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.094], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.091], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.088], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.087], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.086], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.084], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.081], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.082], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.073], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.073], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.072], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.074], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.074], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.074], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.069], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.07], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.07], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.068]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.nalandaopenuniversity.com/g20-summit-2023-schedule-venue-dates/\", \"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/09/biden-takes-putin-xi-g20-00114870\", \"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/09/biden-takes-putin-xi-g20-00114870\", \"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/09/biden-takes-putin-xi-g20-00114870\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-putin-discusses-bilateral-ties-brics-with-indias-modi-phone-call-2023-08-28/\", \"https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/russian-president-vladimir-putin-will-not-attend-g20-summit-in-india-2426556-2023-08-25\", \"https://www.rt.com/russia/581817-putin-g20-leaders-india/\"]"}, {"question": "Will New England Patriots advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18328/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.073], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.073], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.232], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.208], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.208], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.194], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.164], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.123], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.117], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.121], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.119], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.049]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will New York Jets advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18329/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.404], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.404], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.403], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.362], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.364], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.369], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.369], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.342], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.31], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.266], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.261], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.261], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.236], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.236], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.232], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.224], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.21], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.209], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.207], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.206], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.207], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.203], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.204], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.204], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.206], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.207], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.207], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.207], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.208], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.208], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.207], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.199], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.197], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.197], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.197], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.196], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.186], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.173], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.173], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.166], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.162], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.162], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.162], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.162], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.159], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.159], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.151], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.151], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.144], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.138], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.13]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Baltimore Ravens advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18330/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.312], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.381], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.381], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.387], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.376], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.382], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.382], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.386], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.386], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.411], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.43], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.405], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.411], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.404], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.391], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.391], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.402], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.413], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.419], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.431], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.422], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.412], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.413], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.412], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.407], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.408], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.409], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.418], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.427], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.427], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.431], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.431], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.466], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.467], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.469], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.472], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.479], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.479], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.479], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.482], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.484], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.479], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.486], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.486], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.486], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.489], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.484], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.479], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.481], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.487], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.476], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.481], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.481], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.484], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.493], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.496], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.499], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.484], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.484], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.484], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.477], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.504], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.506], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.513], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.526], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.523], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.524], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.523], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.559], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.559], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.563], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.571], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.577], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.578], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.584], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.582], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.583], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.584], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.595], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.612], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.618], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.634]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Cincinnati Bengals advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18331/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.532], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.532], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.532], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.574], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.592], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.592], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.643], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.643], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.636], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.592], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.539], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.529], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.529], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.527], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.527], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.503], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.489], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.489], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.431], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.411], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.401], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.391], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.392], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.391], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.398], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.389], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.394], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.397], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.397], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.405], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.397], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.397], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.398], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.387], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.394], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.394], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.406], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.408], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.412], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.404], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.404], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.404], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.388], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.386], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.386], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.368], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.364], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.364], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.362], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.362], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.355], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.355], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.355], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.359], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.361], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.361], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.361], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.351], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.354], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.351], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.339], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.336], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.336], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.342], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.345], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.347], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.351], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.349], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.352], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.354], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.354], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.351], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.348], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.329], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.327], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.324], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.323], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.324], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.324], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.314], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.314], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.309], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.309]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Indianapolis Colts advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18335/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.223], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.223], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.199], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.187], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.187], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.19], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.088], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.121], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.131], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.127], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.121], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.123], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.123], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.121], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.117], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.118], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.118], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.118], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.118], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.119], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.119], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.119], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.123], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.123], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.129], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.129], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.129], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.123], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.119], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.117], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.115], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.113], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.11], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.107], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.114], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.115], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.115], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.112], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.112], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.109]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Jacksonville Jaguars advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18336/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.22], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.293], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.323], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.292], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.334], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.353], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.357], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.357], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.38], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.352], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.358], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.358], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.317], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.296], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.283], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.281], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.283], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.287], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.294], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.297], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.296], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.298], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.296], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.297], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.308], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.32], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.328], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.328], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.329], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.347], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.389], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.403], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.401], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.414], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.418], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.419], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.418], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.382], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.377], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.377], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.416], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.409], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.411], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.392], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.393], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.393], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.399], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.402], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.409], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.409], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.409], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.391], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.38], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.378], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.378], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.378], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.366], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.361], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.364], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.372], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.372], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.362], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.361], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.363], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.355], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.352], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.349], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.347], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.347], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.328], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.334], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.331], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.331], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.331], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.331], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.331], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.331], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.331], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.344], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.344], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.331], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.33], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.333], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.335], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.321], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.325]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Tennessee Titans advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18337/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.188], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.178], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.178], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.13], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.133], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.139], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.139], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.138], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.142], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.139], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.134], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.121], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.117], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.118], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.118], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.111], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.111], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.109], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.109], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.109], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.106], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.106], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.106], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.069], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.068], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.067], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.065]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Denver Broncos advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18338/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.129], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.206], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.192], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.192], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.164], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.136], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.138], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.119], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.111], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.111], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.106], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.099], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.101], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.104], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.092], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.088], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.088], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.086]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Las Vegas Raiders advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18340/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.056], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.233], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.233], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.169], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.139], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.138], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.131], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.133], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.124], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.124], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.121], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.117], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.112], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.112], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.112], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.112], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.112], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.101], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.069], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.069], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.069], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.062], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.062], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.058], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.042], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.043], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.043], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.042], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.042]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Los Angeles Chargers advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18341/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.323], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.323], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.239], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.239], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.261], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.256], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.256], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.231], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.231], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.241], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.241], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.246], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.254], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.256], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.255], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.257], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.259], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.261], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.261], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.259], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.258], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.259], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.247], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.238], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.237], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.233], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.234], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.234], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.244], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.244], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.239], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.239], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.239], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.221], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.221], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.208], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.208], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.208], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.208], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.208], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.208], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.208], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.207], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.214], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.199], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.197], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.173], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.163], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.152], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.138], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.138], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.138], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.128]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will New York Giants advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18343/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.232], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.232], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.209], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.194], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.194], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.156], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.171], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.171], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.183], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.124], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.131], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.131], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.117], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.117], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.101], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.101], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.101], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.099], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.099], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.067], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.058], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.059], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.042], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.041], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.041]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Washington Commanders advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18345/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.076], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.248], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.248], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.13], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.108], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.138], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.138], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.13], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.101], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.101], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.092], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.068], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.051]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Chicago Bears advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18346/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.242], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.219], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.219], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.158], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.158], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.117], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.117], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.096], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.087], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.033], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.031], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.029], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.029], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.03], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.03]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Minnesota Vikings advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18349/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.186], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.283], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.283], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.282], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.224], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.261], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.261], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.289], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.244], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.227], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.213], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.213], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.217], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.212], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.212], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.209], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.206], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.201], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.204], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.203], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.204], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.201], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.202], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.203], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.202], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.201], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.203], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.208], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.209], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.211], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.207], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.207], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.211], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.211], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.216], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.212], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.211], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.218], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.218], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.218], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.219], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.219], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.213], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.213], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.209], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.209], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.209], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.209], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.207], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.191], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.192], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.192], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.193], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.195], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.193], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.193], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.194], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.182], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.179], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.179], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.174], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.172], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.169], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.169], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.162], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.154], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.154], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.146], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.141], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.134], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.13], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.129], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.124], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.122], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.116], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.116], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.112], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.108], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.102], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.102], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.102]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Atlanta Falcons advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18350/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.212], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.212], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.147], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.133], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.151], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.163], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.158], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.153], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.156], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.151], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.142], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.148], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.152], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.153], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.154], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.152], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.152], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.151], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.151], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.144], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.141], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.139], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.141], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.138], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.138], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.138], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.138], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.138], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.135], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.135], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.143], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.143], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.143], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.136], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.128], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.129], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.129], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.119], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.118], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.114], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.07], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.07], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.075], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.071], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.071], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.069], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.069], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.068], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.068], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.067], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.066], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.066], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.064], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.064], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.062], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.06], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.06], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.059], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.059]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Carolina Panthers advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18351/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.213], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.188], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.166], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.166], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.182], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.103], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.103], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.091], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.033]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will New Orleans Saints advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18352/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.229], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.314], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.314], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.304], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.321], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.254], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.291], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.273], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.252], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.225], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.257], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.257], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.239], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.263], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.264], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.264], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.261], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.261], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.251], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.243], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.242], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.242], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.246], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.248], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.244], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.238], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.228], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.225], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.228], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.228], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.234], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.233], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.233], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.248], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.249], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.249], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.248], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.248], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.248], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.242], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.236], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.218], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.213], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.204], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.204], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.211], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.208], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.204], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.201], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.197], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.207], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.203], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.201], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.191], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.192], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.178], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.178], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.167], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.162], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.161], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.161], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.148], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.148], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.143], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.144], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.144], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.139], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.141], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.14], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.14], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.139], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.136], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.136], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.136], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.134], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.128], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.125], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.125], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.111]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Arizona Cardinals advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18354/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.019], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.096], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.096], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.042], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.042], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.032]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will San Francisco 49ers advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18356/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.716], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.751], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.801], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.793], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.794], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.804], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.804], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.775], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.775], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.789], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.765], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.759], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.742], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.742], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.748], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.748], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.755], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.767], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.779], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.779], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.793], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.797], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.799], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.797], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.802], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.802], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.809], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.808], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.809], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.817], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.812], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.811], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.811], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.807], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.807], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.809], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.801], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.802], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.802], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.802], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.803], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.812], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.811], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.813], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.816], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.816], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.816], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.817], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.818], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.812], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.817], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.823], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.823], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.825], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.824], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.824], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.824], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.824], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.821], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.822], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.836], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.839], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.843], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.843], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.847], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.849], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.849], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.851], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.852], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.851], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.857], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.857], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.857], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.861], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.863], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.864], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.863], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.862], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.867], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.867]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Seattle Seahawks advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18357/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.\n32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.\nThe results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.229], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.229], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.314], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.314], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.306], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.242], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.277], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.277], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.248], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.229], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.219], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.219], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.225], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.216], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.203], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.208], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.204], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.206], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.208], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.21], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.221], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.228], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.227], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.224], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.222], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.218], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.221], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.227], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.227], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.239], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.239], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.242], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.242], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.218], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.218], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.218], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.207], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.207], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.204], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.204], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.202], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.188], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.184], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.179], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.177], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.172], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.171], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.173], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.177], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.182], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.177], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.181], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.184], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.184], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.178], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.168], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.166], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.166], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.17], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.162], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.164], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.163], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.163], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.163], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.16], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.155], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.155], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.151], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.142], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.148], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.14], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.138], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.135], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.135], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.134], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.128], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.13], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.128], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.126], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.125], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.114]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18385/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On May 17, 2023, Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved. Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"muerte cruzada\" to dissolve the assembly as he was facing impeachment proceedings, but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held on August 20, 2023. If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place on October 15, 2023.\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of two local politicians as well as the murder of a presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso declared a state of emergency for 60 days, scheduled to end on October 9.\nInSight Crime estimates that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-08-15", "date_close": "2023-10-07", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-09", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before the existing national state of emergency lapses, credible sources report that the state of emergency in Ecuador has been extended beyond the initial 60 days without lapsing. This question will resolve as No if either there is no such reporting before October 10, 2023 or if credible sources report that the national state of emergency in Ecuador has ended.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-17\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.47], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.504], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.509], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.509], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.501], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.504], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.504], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.504], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.465], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.472], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.472], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.473], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.473], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.472], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.489], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.489], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.488], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.489]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://x.com/comunicacionec/status/1711191064646660503?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://x.com/comunicacionec/status/1711191064646660503?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://x.com/comunicacionec/status/1711191064646660503?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\"]"}, {"question": "Will Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18386/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On May 17, 2023, Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved. Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"muerte cruzada\" to dissolve the assembly as he was facing impeachment proceedings, but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held on August 20, 2023. If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place on October 15, 2023.\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of two local politicians as well as the murder of a presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso declared a state of emergency for 60 days.\nInSight Crime estimates that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.\nPolling shows Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez, candidate from the Citizen Revolution Movement party, in the lead, though as of August 15 Wikipedia currently does not report any polls following the death of Villavicencio.", "date_begin": "2023-08-15", "date_close": "2023-08-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez receives the most votes in the first round of Ecuador's election, according to reports from credible sources.\nFine Print\nIf it is not obvious that Gonz\u00e1lez has received the most votes, such as in the event of a close election, this question will resolve according to the final results as first reported directly by the National Electoral Council of Ecuador or via secondary credible sources. Later recounts or disputes are immaterial for the purposes of this question.\nIf final official results are not reported before October 1, 2023, this question will be annulled.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-16\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.715], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.788], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.77], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.806], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.806], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.716], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.716], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.796], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.763], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.723], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.723], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.714], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.729], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.721], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.696], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.699], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.708], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.726], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.724], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.713], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.708], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.707], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.707], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.724], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.723], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.724], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.717], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.722], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.729], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.731], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.733], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.733], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.731], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.732], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.734], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.737], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.738], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.739], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.739], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.736], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.726], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.718], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.721], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.723], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.719], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.719], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.715], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.715], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.714], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.714], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.712], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.712], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.712], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.711], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.711], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.711], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.712], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.713], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.713], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.716], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.717], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.717], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.716], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.718], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.718], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.719], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.721], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.726], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.726], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.729], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.718], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.721], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.721], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.721], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.724], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.726], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.726], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.726], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.723], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.723], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.721], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.728], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.728], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.729], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.729], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.727], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.726], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.729]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://elecciones2023.cne.gob.ec/\", \"https://elecciones2023.cne.gob.ec/\", \"https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-ecuadors-2023-presidential-election\", \"https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez win Ecuador\u2019s 2023 presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18395/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The nation of Ecuador is having a general election on Sunday, August 20, 2023. This question is about the presidential election only.\nThe current candidates are:\nBol\u00edvar Armijos (of the \"AMIGO Movement\")\nLuisa Gonz\u00e1lez (of the \"Citizen's Revolution Movement\")\nXavier Hervas (of the \"RETO Movement\")\nDaniel Noboa Az\u00edn (of the \"ADN\" alliance)\nYaku P\u00e9rez Guartambel (of the \"Claro Que Se Puede\" alliance, as well as of Pachakutik)\nOtto Sonnenholzner (of the \"Actuemos\" alliance, as well as of the \"Democratic Left\")\nJan Topi\u0107 (of the \"Por Un Pa\u00eds Sin Miedo\" alliance)\n(There was another candidate, namely Fernando Villavicencio, but he was assassinated on August 9.)\nThis question is intended to mimic a Manifold market created by the question's author, and the two should resolve similarly.", "date_begin": "2023-08-16", "date_close": "2023-10-16", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The subquestion corresponding to the person who is elected to be the next president of Ecuador shall resolve Yes, and all other subquestions shall resolve No. This question shall resolve based on reporting of the results from credible sources. If the election does not occur at all by the end of 2023, or it is impossible to know the result of the election before January 1, 2024, then all subquestions shall be annulled. If someone other than the listed candidates is elected then all subquestions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIn the event that credible sources report that a candidate has won the election prior to official vote counts being finalized and the question is resolved, and then official results later report that a different candidate has won (including as a result of a recount or legal disputes), this question will be re-resolved to the final results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-17\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.517], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.55], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.607], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.607], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.607], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.613], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.636], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.661], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.667], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.668], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.668], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.674], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.674], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.696], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.591], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.591], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.584], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.584], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.586], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.584], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.584], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.618], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.611], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.616], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.614], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.612], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.617], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.617], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.619], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.608], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.608], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.607], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.608], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.602], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.602], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.596], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.596], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.604], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.607], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.61], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.601], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.601], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.601], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.601], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.613], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.613], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.598], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.598], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.593], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.576], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.576], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.585], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.584], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.579], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.579], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.578], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.577], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.576], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.577], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.573], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.573], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.573], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.566], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.567], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.566], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.563], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.561], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.558], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.557], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.552], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.55], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.557], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.556], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.554], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.552], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.539], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.528]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Daniel Noboa Az\u00edn win Ecuador\u2019s 2023 presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18397/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The nation of Ecuador is having a general election on Sunday, August 20, 2023. This question is about the presidential election only.\nThe current candidates are:\nBol\u00edvar Armijos (of the \"AMIGO Movement\")\nLuisa Gonz\u00e1lez (of the \"Citizen's Revolution Movement\")\nXavier Hervas (of the \"RETO Movement\")\nDaniel Noboa Az\u00edn (of the \"ADN\" alliance)\nYaku P\u00e9rez Guartambel (of the \"Claro Que Se Puede\" alliance, as well as of Pachakutik)\nOtto Sonnenholzner (of the \"Actuemos\" alliance, as well as of the \"Democratic Left\")\nJan Topi\u0107 (of the \"Por Un Pa\u00eds Sin Miedo\" alliance)\n(There was another candidate, namely Fernando Villavicencio, but he was assassinated on August 9.)\nThis question is intended to mimic a Manifold market created by the question's author, and the two should resolve similarly.", "date_begin": "2023-08-16", "date_close": "2023-10-16", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The subquestion corresponding to the person who is elected to be the next president of Ecuador shall resolve Yes, and all other subquestions shall resolve No. This question shall resolve based on reporting of the results from credible sources. If the election does not occur at all by the end of 2023, or it is impossible to know the result of the election before January 1, 2024, then all subquestions shall be annulled. If someone other than the listed candidates is elected then all subquestions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIn the event that credible sources report that a candidate has won the election prior to official vote counts being finalized and the question is resolved, and then official results later report that a different candidate has won (including as a result of a recount or legal disputes), this question will be re-resolved to the final results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-17\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.052], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.061], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.056], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.056], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.054], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.232], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.279], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.249], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.272], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.272], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.309], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.318], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.332], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.332], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.338], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.372], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.369], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.374], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.401], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.404], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.404], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.432], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.435], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.428], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.453], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.453], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.453], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.443], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.443], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.437], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.437], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.439], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.446], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.446], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.446], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.446], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.44], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.44], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.436], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.436], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.436], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.436], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.437], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.436], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.421], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.433], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.448], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.456], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.458], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.458], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.472], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.462], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.464], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.463], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.451], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.451], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.451], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.455], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.457], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.459], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.479], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.483], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.477], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.478], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.479], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.507]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Christian Zurita win Ecuador\u2019s 2023 presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18442/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The nation of Ecuador is having a general election on Sunday, August 20, 2023. This question is about the presidential election only.\nThe current candidates are:\nBol\u00edvar Armijos (of the \"AMIGO Movement\")\nLuisa Gonz\u00e1lez (of the \"Citizen's Revolution Movement\")\nXavier Hervas (of the \"RETO Movement\")\nDaniel Noboa Az\u00edn (of the \"ADN\" alliance)\nYaku P\u00e9rez Guartambel (of the \"Claro Que Se Puede\" alliance, as well as of Pachakutik)\nOtto Sonnenholzner (of the \"Actuemos\" alliance, as well as of the \"Democratic Left\")\nJan Topi\u0107 (of the \"Por Un Pa\u00eds Sin Miedo\" alliance)\n(There was another candidate, namely Fernando Villavicencio, but he was assassinated on August 9.)\nThis question is intended to mimic a Manifold market created by the question's author, and the two should resolve similarly.", "date_begin": "2023-08-20", "date_close": "2023-10-16", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The subquestion corresponding to the person who is elected to be the next president of Ecuador shall resolve Yes, and all other subquestions shall resolve No. This question shall resolve based on reporting of the results from credible sources. If the election does not occur at all by the end of 2023, or it is impossible to know the result of the election before January 1, 2024, then all subquestions shall be annulled. If someone other than the listed candidates is elected then all subquestions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIn the event that credible sources report that a candidate has won the election prior to official vote counts being finalized and the question is resolved, and then official results later report that a different candidate has won (including as a result of a recount or legal disputes), this question will be re-resolved to the final results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-20\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.019], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.012], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.058]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18523/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "According to Nature, \"Researchers are racing to determine whether a highly mutated coronavirus variant that has popped up in three continents will be a global concern \u2014 or much ado about nothing.\"\nOn August 17th, the WHO labeled BA.2.86 a \"Variant Under Monitoring,\" noting \"mutations relative to putative ancestor BA.2\" and \"Only 3 sequences available. Added as VUM based on the large number of mutations identified.\"\nWHO could designate BA.2.86 a \"Variant of Interest,\" a designation used for:\nA SARS-CoV-2 variant with genetic changes that are predicted or known to affect virus characteristics such as transmissibility, virulence, antibody evasion, susceptibility to therapeutics and detectability; AND\nidentified to have a growth advantage over other circulating variants in more than one WHO region with increasing relative prevalence alongside increasing number of cases over time, or other apparent epidemiological impacts to suggest an emerging risk to global public health.\nArs Technica reports that BA.2.86 has gained attention because of \" 34 mutations in its spike gene relative to BA.2, the omicron sublineage from which it descended. This number of spike mutations between BA.2.86 and BA.2 is chillingly similar to the number of mutations seen between the original omicron (BA.1) and the ancestral Wuhan strain.\"", "date_begin": "2023-08-23", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Healthcare & Biology", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before October 1, 2023, the WHO lists BA.2.86 as a \"Variant of Interest\" on their \"Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants\" page.\nFine Print\nFor the purposes of this question, BA.2.86 includes any BA.2.86.x pango lineage. Variants that include genetic features of BA.2.86, but which are not classified as a BA.2.86.x pango lineages, are not sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.312], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.324], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.322], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.314], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.323], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.341], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.338], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.334], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.333], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.332], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.332], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.336], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.331], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.331], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.328], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.326], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.328], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.331], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.326], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.326], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.324], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.318], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.317], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.315], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.31], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.309], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.31], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.304], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.295], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.269], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.253], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.235], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.207], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.194], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.186], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.162], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.153], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.149], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.142], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.142], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.148], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.148], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.133], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.126], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.123], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.121], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.121], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.121], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.117], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.111], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.106], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.106], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.099], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.099], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.099], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.097], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.097], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.092], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.092], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.087], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.087], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.087], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.085]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-epidemiological-update---29-september-2023\", \"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings/sars-cov-2-variant-surveillance-and-assessment-technical-briefing-55\", \"https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/covid-19-variant-update-2023-09-08.html\", \"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#maps_percent-covid-deaths\", \"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_select_00\", \"https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/call-for-expression-of-interest-for-reference-laboratories-of-the-who-coronavirus-network-(covinet)\", \"https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/ezd/eoi_covinet.pdf?sfvrsn=23947c0a_1\", \"https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20230901_weekly_epi_update_158.pdf\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/03/health/covid-new-variant-pirola-early-lab-results/index.html\", \"https://twitter.com/outbreakupdates/status/1699182269141762356\", \"https://two-wrongs.com/forecasting-covid-19-variants.html\", \"https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-757546\", \"https://www.wymt.com/2023/09/04/latest-covid-19-variant-is-less-contagious-lab-tests-suggest/\", \"https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/covid-19-variant.html\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17684/-sites-with-high-levels-of-sars-cov-2/\", \"https://twitter.com/SSI_dk/status/1693964048662995318\", \"https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/covid-19-variant.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18525/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Chatbot Arena is a benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs). It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.\nAs of August 22, 2023, the top five models on the leaderboard, as ranked by Elo, are all proprietary:\nModel \u2b50 Arena Elo rating \ud83d\udcc8 MT-bench (score) MMLU License\nGPT-4 1206 8.99 86.4 Proprietary\nClaude-1 1166 7.9 77 Proprietary\nClaude-instant-1 1138 7.85 73.4 Proprietary\nClaude-2 1135 8.06 78.5 Proprietary\nGPT-3.5-turbo 1122 7.94 70 Proprietary\nVicuna-33B 1096 7.12 59.2 Non-commercial\nVicuna-13B 1051 6.57 55.8 Llama 2 Community\nMPT-30B-chat 1046 6.39 50.4 CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0\nWizardLM-13B-v1.1 1040 6.76 50 Non-commercial\nGuanaco-33B 1038 6.53 57.6 Non-commercial", "date_begin": "2023-08-23", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if, at noon ET on September 30, 2023, an LLM that is listed as having any non-proprietary license is listed in the top 5 models on the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard.\nThe question resolves No if each of the top 5 models is listed as having a \"proprietary\" license.\nThe leaderboard will be sorted by \"Arena ELO rating.\"", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.433], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.456], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.464], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.459], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.457], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.444], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.446], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.445], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.448], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.435], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.433], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.435], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.44], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.427], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.426], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.418], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.422], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.41], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.416], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.406], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.403], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.405], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.404], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.403], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.396], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.403], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.407], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.406], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.405], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.402], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.396], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.394], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.391], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.394], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.397], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.396], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.389], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.386], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.373], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.366], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.344], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.342], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.328], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.324], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.314], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.31], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.269], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.251], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.242], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.213], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.209], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.204], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.202], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.199], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.199], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.193], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.192], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.19], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.187], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.181], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.179], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.173], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.169], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.162], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.163], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.147], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.147], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.139], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.133], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.133], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.131], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.126], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.123], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.121], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.119], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.119], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.119], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.113]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://x.com/lmsysorg/status/1707098135712219497?s=46&t=DiWAZAfrAEpw4d6PfxTVWA\", \"https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/\", \"https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard\", \"https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard/blob/b1245be37bbef2ce5feb36b05bc15784d46c36ed/app.py#L310-L316\", \"https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard/tree/main\", \"https://twitter.com/mattshumer_/status/1699405371138326560?s=20\", \"https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/\", \"https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard\", \"https://paperswithcode.com/sota/multi-task-language-understanding-on-mmlu\"]"}, {"question": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18530/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "According to the New York Times:\nYevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia\u2019s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023], killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities.\nAnd further:\nRussian media have reported that the plane that crashed on Wednesday was an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with the tail number RA-02795. Past news reports have linked the plane to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.\nRussian media reported that eight bodies had so far been recovered.", "date_begin": "2023-08-23", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources state before November 1, 2023 that Yevgeny V. Prigozhin is confirmed to be dead (due to any cause). This question will resolve as No if Prigozhin makes any public appearance before November 1, 2023, or if his health or whereabouts remain unconfirmed at that time.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-24\", 0.91], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.785], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.841], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.841], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.868], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.88], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.927], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.931], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.929], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.927], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.937], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.939], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.947], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.945], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.948], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.949], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.955], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.957], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.958], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.963], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.963], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.964], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.966], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.966], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.964], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.964], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.963], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.963], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.963], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.963], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.961], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.951], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.952], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.953], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.953], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.955], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.955], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.955], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.956], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.957], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.957], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.956], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.957], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.957], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.961], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.961], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.962], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.962], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.966], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.966], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.966], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.966], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.967], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.968], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.968]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://apnews.com/article/2c77567908c73e538f9f1c76ae406f8f\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/24/russia-vladimir-putin-yevgeniy-prigozhin-foes/\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/24/russia-vladimir-putin-yevgeniy-prigozhin-foes/\", \"https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3504670/pentagon-press-secretary-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-a-press-briefing/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/dc62a2919f7cfb2d0e63321f6bc1fa1a\", \"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12456817/amp/Prigozhin-alive-plotting-revenge-Putin.html\", \"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4124106/amp/Is-Elvis-hanging-home-Conspiracy-fans-claim-star-ALIVE-visited-Graceland-82nd-birthday.html\", \"https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B5_%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B1%D0%B8%D1%89%D0%B5\", \"https://zona.media/news/2023/08/29/proshhanie\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2vslwfSBck\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/27/world/europe/russia-wagner-prigozhin-future.html\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/27/russia-confirms-prigozhin-dead-crash/\", \"https://youtu.be/va3UtYl6PUs?si=_AmIuq9WlE57w0Fg\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-obituary\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66632924\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/second-russian-plane-reportedly-linked-prigozhin-had-no-connection-wagner-group-2023-08-25/\", \"https://nypost.com/2023/08/24/second-jet-spotted-after-prigozhin-crash-sparks-conspiracy-theories/\", \"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/16/mystery-plane-carrying-russian-arms-smugglers-crashes-congo/\", \"https://www.congress.gov/116/meeting/house/110854/witnesses/HHRG-116-FA14-Wstate-MartenK-20200707.pdf\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/24/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-news\", \"https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694744520565354821\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/a6d28537-3a77-5702-be52-1f29950090b9?smid=url-share\"]"}, {"question": "Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden\u2019s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18535/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer has requested that the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) provide special access to then-Vice President Joe Biden\u2019s records concerning his tenure and activities overlapping with his son\u2019s dealings in Ukraine. This request pertains to unredacted documents and communications, specifically those in which then-Vice President Joe Biden used a pseudonym, along with several other associated names, and drafts of a specific speech made in December 2015.\nThe Committee is investigating meetings and communications between President Biden, certain family members, and their business associates during his tenure as Vice President. The Committee\u2019s stated objective is to address potential deficiencies in the existing legal framework concerning ethics laws and disclosure of financial interests related to the immediate family of Vice Presidents and Presidents.\nThe House Oversight Committee claims to have evidence suggesting that the Biden family has been involved in schemes, essentially capitalizing on their 'brand', which reportedly garnered millions from foreign nationals.\nThe full text of the letter.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-08-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as:\n\"Yes\" if, before September 1, 2023, there is official confirmation from either the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), the Committee on Oversight and Accountability, or credible news sources, stating that the Committee on Oversight and Accountability was granted access to any of the records mentioned in Chairman James Comer's letter, in response to the letter. The phrase \u201cunrestricted special access\u201d does not need to appear.\nAny subset of the following relevant documents, per Comer's letter, can be provided for positive resolution:\nComplete, unredacted versions of all documents from Case Number 2023-0022-F;\nAny document or communication in which a pseudonym for Vice President Joe Biden was included either as a sender, recipient, copied or was included in the contents of the document or communication, including but not limited to Robert Peters, Robin Ware, and JRB Ware;\nAny document or communication in which Hunter Biden, Eric Schwerin, or Devon Archer was included either as a sender, recipient, copied, or was included in the contents of the document or communication; and\nAll drafts from November 1, 2015 to December 9, 2015 of then-Vice President Biden\u2019s speech delivered to the Ukrainian Rada on December 9, 2015.\n\"No\" if, before September 1, 2023, no confirmation as described above appears or if there is confirmation that the request was denied.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.324], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.324], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.342], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.322], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.322], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.331], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.314], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.307], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.289], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.282], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.273], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.254], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.206], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.181], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.192], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.174], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.156], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.149], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.148], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.149], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.146], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.143], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.142], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.137], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.136], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.158], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.153], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.146], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.144], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.141], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.137], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.136], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.136], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.142], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.137], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.133], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.138], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.137], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.134], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.131], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.126], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.131], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.131], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.129], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.131], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.128], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.127], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.121], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.119], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.119], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.118], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.117], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.117], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.117], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.116], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.114], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.114], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.103], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.098]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/GOPoversight/status/1697390580488196142\", \"https://goldrushcam.com/sierrasuntimes/index.php/news/local-news/49243-ranking-member-of-the-committee-on-oversight-and-accountability-jamie-raskin-urges-chairman-comer-to-subpoena-kushner-s-investment-firm-for-key-documents-illuminating-billions-in-funding-from-saudi-arabia-and-other-gulf-monarchies\", \"https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/obama-biden-aides-reviewing-emails-house-oversight\", \"https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/national-archives-acknowledges-5400-biden-pseudonym-emails-faces-lawsuit\", \"https://themessenger.com/politics/national-archives-wont-say-whether-it-plans-to-give-gop-special-access-to-biden-emails\", \"https://www.archives.gov/about/laws/presidential-records.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will Javier Milei win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18536/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Argentine general election for President is scheduled to be held on October 22, 2023.\nIn a surprise performance, Javier Milei placed first in the August 13th Argentina presidential primary with >30% of the total votes.\nPrior to the primary, Reuters provided an overview of the main candidates:\nSERGIO MASSA\nThe current Minister of Economy, Massa is the main 'unity' candidate for the Peronist coalition's Union por la Patria grouping and the distant favorite to win its nomination despite inflation hitting 116% and reserves dwindling under his watch.\nA pragmatist and deal maker, Massa, 51, represents the centrist wing of Peronism, Argentina's main political force for decades, though has a mixed relationship with the powerful left-wing of the coalition, despite getting its eventual backing.\nMassa is the single most popular candidate in most opinion polls, though his Peronist coalition is overall seen just behind the main conservative opposition bloc.\nPATRICIA BULLRICH\nBullrich, 67, a former security minister, represents the more conservative wing of the center-right Together for Change coalition. She is pledging tough austerity measures to stabilize the economy and a tough-on-crime law and order approach.\nBullrich, who faces a fight in the primaries against moderate rival Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Larreta, wants to quickly remove capital controls, cut spending to tackle inflation and lower taxes on farm exports, Argentina's top economic engine.\nJAVIER MILEI\nWith tousled hair, histrionics and regular diatribes against the \"thieving\" political elite, Milei is the biggest political surprise in recent years in Argentina, being propelled by voters disenchanted with the political status quo.\nThe 52-year-old economist, who often sports leather jackets and sings rock songs at his boisterous political rallies, has proposed to dollarize the economy, shutter the central bank and eradicate various ministries to shrink the state.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes for the person who wins the 2023 presidential election in Argentina. This question resolves as No for all others. This will resolve on the basis of credible sources reporting the election results.\nThis question is Annulled if the election is postponed past 2023 or otherwise cancelled.\nIf the election is simply moved backwards or forwards within 2023, this question resolves as outlined above", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.525], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.564], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.578], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.578], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.578], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.561], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.58], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.546], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.549], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.549], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.552], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.562], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.61], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.614], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.615], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.637], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.637], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.671], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.672], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.672], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.673], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.673], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.685], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.692], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.692], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.702], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.713], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.713], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.698], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.706], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.711], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.711], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.713], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.716], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.716], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.718], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.719], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.718], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.718], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.722], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.726], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.726], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.728], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.723], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.723], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.722], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.722], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.723], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.725], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.718], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.718], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.718], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.707], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.618], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.609], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.602], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.604], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.589], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.588], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.586], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.569], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.568], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.566], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.548], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.541], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.539], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.541], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.544], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.548], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.536], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.537], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.537], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.533], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.534], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.528], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.528], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.529], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.544], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.543], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.541], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.536], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.537], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.536], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.537], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.547], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.549], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.549], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.547]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Sergio Massa win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18537/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Argentine general election for President is scheduled to be held on October 22, 2023.\nIn a surprise performance, Javier Milei placed first in the August 13th Argentina presidential primary with >30% of the total votes.\nPrior to the primary, Reuters provided an overview of the main candidates:\nSERGIO MASSA\nThe current Minister of Economy, Massa is the main 'unity' candidate for the Peronist coalition's Union por la Patria grouping and the distant favorite to win its nomination despite inflation hitting 116% and reserves dwindling under his watch.\nA pragmatist and deal maker, Massa, 51, represents the centrist wing of Peronism, Argentina's main political force for decades, though has a mixed relationship with the powerful left-wing of the coalition, despite getting its eventual backing.\nMassa is the single most popular candidate in most opinion polls, though his Peronist coalition is overall seen just behind the main conservative opposition bloc.\nPATRICIA BULLRICH\nBullrich, 67, a former security minister, represents the more conservative wing of the center-right Together for Change coalition. She is pledging tough austerity measures to stabilize the economy and a tough-on-crime law and order approach.\nBullrich, who faces a fight in the primaries against moderate rival Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Larreta, wants to quickly remove capital controls, cut spending to tackle inflation and lower taxes on farm exports, Argentina's top economic engine.\nJAVIER MILEI\nWith tousled hair, histrionics and regular diatribes against the \"thieving\" political elite, Milei is the biggest political surprise in recent years in Argentina, being propelled by voters disenchanted with the political status quo.\nThe 52-year-old economist, who often sports leather jackets and sings rock songs at his boisterous political rallies, has proposed to dollarize the economy, shutter the central bank and eradicate various ministries to shrink the state.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes for the person who wins the 2023 presidential election in Argentina. This question resolves as No for all others. This will resolve on the basis of credible sources reporting the election results.\nThis question is Annulled if the election is postponed past 2023 or otherwise cancelled.\nIf the election is simply moved backwards or forwards within 2023, this question resolves as outlined above", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.273], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.284], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.274], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.266], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.266], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.284], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.306], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.306], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.302], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.308], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.308], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.285], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.282], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.28], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.272], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.272], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.269], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.252], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.237], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.231], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.23], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.23], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.226], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.217], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.217], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.244], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.244], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.222], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.224], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.231], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.233], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.233], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.254], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.253], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.257], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.251], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.255], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.254], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.256], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.258], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.253], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.273], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.412], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.423], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.44], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.437], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.455], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.456], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.461], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.481], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.504], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.514], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.514], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.514], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.514], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.511], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.505], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.518], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.516], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.529], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.537], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.536], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.537], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.535], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.519], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.519], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.509], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.51], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.509], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.508], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.512], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.511], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.511], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.511], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.506], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.502], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.502]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18538/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Argentine general election for President is scheduled to be held on October 22, 2023.\nIn a surprise performance, Javier Milei placed first in the August 13th Argentina presidential primary with >30% of the total votes.\nPrior to the primary, Reuters provided an overview of the main candidates:\nSERGIO MASSA\nThe current Minister of Economy, Massa is the main 'unity' candidate for the Peronist coalition's Union por la Patria grouping and the distant favorite to win its nomination despite inflation hitting 116% and reserves dwindling under his watch.\nA pragmatist and deal maker, Massa, 51, represents the centrist wing of Peronism, Argentina's main political force for decades, though has a mixed relationship with the powerful left-wing of the coalition, despite getting its eventual backing.\nMassa is the single most popular candidate in most opinion polls, though his Peronist coalition is overall seen just behind the main conservative opposition bloc.\nPATRICIA BULLRICH\nBullrich, 67, a former security minister, represents the more conservative wing of the center-right Together for Change coalition. She is pledging tough austerity measures to stabilize the economy and a tough-on-crime law and order approach.\nBullrich, who faces a fight in the primaries against moderate rival Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Larreta, wants to quickly remove capital controls, cut spending to tackle inflation and lower taxes on farm exports, Argentina's top economic engine.\nJAVIER MILEI\nWith tousled hair, histrionics and regular diatribes against the \"thieving\" political elite, Milei is the biggest political surprise in recent years in Argentina, being propelled by voters disenchanted with the political status quo.\nThe 52-year-old economist, who often sports leather jackets and sings rock songs at his boisterous political rallies, has proposed to dollarize the economy, shutter the central bank and eradicate various ministries to shrink the state.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes for the person who wins the 2023 presidential election in Argentina. This question resolves as No for all others. This will resolve on the basis of credible sources reporting the election results.\nThis question is Annulled if the election is postponed past 2023 or otherwise cancelled.\nIf the election is simply moved backwards or forwards within 2023, this question resolves as outlined above", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.344], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.303], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.303], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.251], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.251], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.251], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.256], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.256], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.247], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.247], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.24], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.235], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.229], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.229], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.226], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.226], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.217], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.214], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.204], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.202], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.194], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.178], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.178], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.176], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.173], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.168], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.168], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.164], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.156], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.156], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.149], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.149], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.147], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.141], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.14], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.13], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.13], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.121], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.121], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.112], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.112], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.112], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.112], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.111], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.105], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.099], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.091], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.088], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.064]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18539/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Argentine general election for President is scheduled to be held on October 22, 2023.\nIn a surprise performance, Javier Milei placed first in the August 13th Argentina presidential primary with >30% of the total votes.\nPrior to the primary, Reuters provided an overview of the main candidates:\nSERGIO MASSA\nThe current Minister of Economy, Massa is the main 'unity' candidate for the Peronist coalition's Union por la Patria grouping and the distant favorite to win its nomination despite inflation hitting 116% and reserves dwindling under his watch.\nA pragmatist and deal maker, Massa, 51, represents the centrist wing of Peronism, Argentina's main political force for decades, though has a mixed relationship with the powerful left-wing of the coalition, despite getting its eventual backing.\nMassa is the single most popular candidate in most opinion polls, though his Peronist coalition is overall seen just behind the main conservative opposition bloc.\nPATRICIA BULLRICH\nBullrich, 67, a former security minister, represents the more conservative wing of the center-right Together for Change coalition. She is pledging tough austerity measures to stabilize the economy and a tough-on-crime law and order approach.\nBullrich, who faces a fight in the primaries against moderate rival Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Larreta, wants to quickly remove capital controls, cut spending to tackle inflation and lower taxes on farm exports, Argentina's top economic engine.\nJAVIER MILEI\nWith tousled hair, histrionics and regular diatribes against the \"thieving\" political elite, Milei is the biggest political surprise in recent years in Argentina, being propelled by voters disenchanted with the political status quo.\nThe 52-year-old economist, who often sports leather jackets and sings rock songs at his boisterous political rallies, has proposed to dollarize the economy, shutter the central bank and eradicate various ministries to shrink the state.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes for the person who wins the 2023 presidential election in Argentina. This question resolves as No for all others. This will resolve on the basis of credible sources reporting the election results.\nThis question is Annulled if the election is postponed past 2023 or otherwise cancelled.\nIf the election is simply moved backwards or forwards within 2023, this question resolves as outlined above", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.054], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.049], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.044], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.044], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.044], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.082], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.066], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.063], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.048], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.048], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.042], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.041], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.036], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.036], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.019], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.019], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.04]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Myriam Bregman win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18540/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Argentine general election for President is scheduled to be held on October 22, 2023.\nIn a surprise performance, Javier Milei placed first in the August 13th Argentina presidential primary with >30% of the total votes.\nPrior to the primary, Reuters provided an overview of the main candidates:\nSERGIO MASSA\nThe current Minister of Economy, Massa is the main 'unity' candidate for the Peronist coalition's Union por la Patria grouping and the distant favorite to win its nomination despite inflation hitting 116% and reserves dwindling under his watch.\nA pragmatist and deal maker, Massa, 51, represents the centrist wing of Peronism, Argentina's main political force for decades, though has a mixed relationship with the powerful left-wing of the coalition, despite getting its eventual backing.\nMassa is the single most popular candidate in most opinion polls, though his Peronist coalition is overall seen just behind the main conservative opposition bloc.\nPATRICIA BULLRICH\nBullrich, 67, a former security minister, represents the more conservative wing of the center-right Together for Change coalition. She is pledging tough austerity measures to stabilize the economy and a tough-on-crime law and order approach.\nBullrich, who faces a fight in the primaries against moderate rival Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Larreta, wants to quickly remove capital controls, cut spending to tackle inflation and lower taxes on farm exports, Argentina's top economic engine.\nJAVIER MILEI\nWith tousled hair, histrionics and regular diatribes against the \"thieving\" political elite, Milei is the biggest political surprise in recent years in Argentina, being propelled by voters disenchanted with the political status quo.\nThe 52-year-old economist, who often sports leather jackets and sings rock songs at his boisterous political rallies, has proposed to dollarize the economy, shutter the central bank and eradicate various ministries to shrink the state.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes for the person who wins the 2023 presidential election in Argentina. This question resolves as No for all others. This will resolve on the basis of credible sources reporting the election results.\nThis question is Annulled if the election is postponed past 2023 or otherwise cancelled.\nIf the election is simply moved backwards or forwards within 2023, this question resolves as outlined above", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.018], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.037], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.034], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.034], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.071], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.049], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.048], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.048], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.043], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.041], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.039], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.038], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.038], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.036], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.036], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.036], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.031], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.031], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.031], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.031], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.019], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.018], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.018], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.039]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18607/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On August 28, 2023, Offshore Alliance \u2014 an Australian workers union \u2014 announced that they had notified the oil company Chevron that the union would be commencing industrial actions beginning on September 7, 2023. Under Australia's Fair Work Act employees may take protected industrial actions, such as strikes, go-slows, or protests, when certain conditions are met.\nOffshore Alliance announced that the industrial actions would affect three of Chevron's sites in western Australia: Gorgon, Wheatstone downstream, and Wheatstone platform facilities.", "date_begin": "2023-08-29", "date_close": "2023-09-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before September 25, 2023, credible sources report that Chevron and Offshore Alliance have reached an agreement which either avoids the commencement of industrial actions currently scheduled for September 7th or ends the industrial actions after they have begun.\nFine Print\nIf Chevron and Offshore Alliance reach an agreement to delay the commencement of industrial actions until after September 25, 2023, for any reason, this question will resolve as Yes.\nA limited end to industrial actions, such as at one of the three Australian Chevron facilities, does not qualify. Only a broad agreement between Offshore Alliance and Chevron that avoids or ends the industrial actions qualifies.\nAn announced agreement that ends or avoids the industrial actions is sufficient to resolve as Yes, a full agreement, such as an Enterprise Bargaining Agreement, need not be agreed to or ratified.\nBoth parties signing a contract that ends the industrial actions as described above, even one mandated by the government or other intermediator, will result in the question resolving as Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-31\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.642], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.643], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.641], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.628], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.644], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.654], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.656], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.658], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.655], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.654], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.654], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.67], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.662], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.654], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.654], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.656], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.639], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.642], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.642], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.668], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.668], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.672], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.672], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.681], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.681], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.692], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.726], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.739], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.74], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.744], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.719], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.706], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.682], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.634], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.603], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.599], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.594], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.586], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.564], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.565], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.569], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.567], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.569], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.567], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.566], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.556], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.539], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.536], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.533], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.511], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.497], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.463], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.445], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.427], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.391], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.378], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.361], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.354], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.343], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.341], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.321], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.318], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.309], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.303], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.291], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.288], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.287], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.286], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.281], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.278], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.28], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.282], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.279], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.278], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.281], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.281], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.277], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.277], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.279], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.279], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.281], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.281], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.287], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.288], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.298], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.404], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.453]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-unions-agree-end-australia-234734545.html\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-21/chevron-and-unions-agree-deal-to-end-australia-lng-strikes\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australia-lng-union-accept-industrial-umpire-terms-chevron-dispute-source-2023-09-21/\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-21/chevron-and-unions-agree-deal-to-end-australia-lng-strikes?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter?sref=jXrLXj0B&leadSource=uverify%20wall\", \"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/timeline-chevron-accepts-australian-labour-121808195.html\", \"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/lng/092123-offshore-alliance-endorses-deal-with-woodside-considers-fwc-recommendation-for-chevron-lng-facilities\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-17/australian-unions-extend-24-hour-stoppages-at-chevron-lng-plants?srnd=premium-asia&leadSource=uverify%20wall\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-can-australias-labour-tribunal-do-chevrons-dispute-with-lng-workers-2023-09-13/?taid=6501811c79887800015de587&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-appeals-workplace-tribunal-halt-australia-lng-strike-action-2023-09-11/\", \"https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/game-on-chevron-unions-strike-at-lng-plants-as-talks-go-bust-20230908-p5e35q\", \"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chevron-lng-workers-in-australia-to-further-delay-planned-strikes-union-rep\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/chevron-lng-workers-extend-talks-delaying-strike-to-friday?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter&leadSource=uverify%20wall\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-lng-workers-australia-pause-strike-action-until-friday-2023-09-06/\", \"https://offshorealliance.org.au/news/12472/\"]"}, {"question": "Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18609/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Gabonese military has announced a coup in the wake of Ali Bongo's election victory this month.\nAli Bongo has been placed under house arrest following military leaders appearing on TV channel Gabon 24 saying, \u201cWe have decided to defend peace by putting an end to the current regime.\u201d\nThe coup in the former French colony has followed a string of other coups in Africa this year.\nFrance has adjusted its foreign policy towards former colonies in the past years, taking a less active role.", "date_begin": "2023-08-30", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, the French government announces that it is taking military action in Gabon to intervene against the coup and credible sources report that French soldiers are undertaking such a military operation within the borders of Gabon. This includes military aid or support to other organizations like ECOWAS acting against the coup.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-08\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.184], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.147], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.148], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.112], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.112], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.112], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.084], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.067], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.063], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.063], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.043], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.041], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.041], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.036], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.036], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.031], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.028], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.028], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.027], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.026], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.026], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.026], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.025]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18186/ecowas-intervention-in-niger-by-oct-1-2023/\"]"}, {"question": "Will General Brice Oligui Nguema be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18614/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "A coup is underway in Gabon, following the disputed re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba over his primary challenger Albert Ondo Ossa.\nAccording to the BBC, the army has replaced Mr. Bongo with the head of the presidential guard, General Brice Oligui Nguema.\nThe BBC has an ongoing simple guide to the Gabon coup.", "date_begin": "2023-08-30", "date_close": "2023-09-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes for the individual who is acting as the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023 according to credible sources. It will resolve No for all other individuals. If there is no consensus on the current de facto leader of Gabon, all sub-questions will resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-31\", 0.83], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.806], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.821], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.876], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.901], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.899], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.902], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.902], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.898], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.898], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.903], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.903], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.904], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.911], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.911], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.913], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.914], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.915], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.919], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.919], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.924], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.924], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.925], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.923], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.925], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.926], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.926], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.927], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.927], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.924], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.924], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.925], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.925], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.926], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.927], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.927], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.927], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.928], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.931], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.931], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.933], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.934], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.934], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.935], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.936], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.936], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.944], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.945], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.945], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.946], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.946], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.947], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.944], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.945], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.945], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.946], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.946], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.947], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.947], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.948], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.948], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.948], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.95], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.95], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.95], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.95], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.95], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.95], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.952], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.952], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.952], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.952], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.952], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.952], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.953], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.953], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.954], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.954], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.954], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.957], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.957], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.957], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.957], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.957], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.957], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.957], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.957], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.959], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.961], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.962], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.962], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.963]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will President Ali Bongo Ondimba be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18615/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "A coup is underway in Gabon, following the disputed re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba over his primary challenger Albert Ondo Ossa.\nAccording to the BBC, the army has replaced Mr. Bongo with the head of the presidential guard, General Brice Oligui Nguema.\nThe BBC has an ongoing simple guide to the Gabon coup.", "date_begin": "2023-08-30", "date_close": "2023-09-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes for the individual who is acting as the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023 according to credible sources. It will resolve No for all other individuals. If there is no consensus on the current de facto leader of Gabon, all sub-questions will resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-31\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.097], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.038], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.036], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.038], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.036], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.03], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.03], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.029], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.029], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.023], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.018], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.018], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.018], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.018], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.013], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.013], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.016]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Albert Ondo Ossa be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18641/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "A coup is underway in Gabon, following the disputed re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba over his primary challenger Albert Ondo Ossa.\nAccording to the BBC, the army has replaced Mr. Bongo with the head of the presidential guard, General Brice Oligui Nguema.\nThe BBC has an ongoing simple guide to the Gabon coup.", "date_begin": "2023-08-31", "date_close": "2023-09-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes for the individual who is acting as the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023 according to credible sources. It will resolve No for all other individuals. If there is no consensus on the current de facto leader of Gabon, all sub-questions will resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-31\", 0.14], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.067], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.049], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.049], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.047], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.046], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.046], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.043], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.042], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.041], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.039], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.037], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.021], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.019], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.018], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.017]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18680/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The United Auto Workers (UAW) union represents more than 400,000 active members primarily from \"autos and auto parts, health care, casino gambling, and higher education.\"\nOn August 25, 2023, following negotiations with the Big Three US automobile manufacturers, General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis (formerly Chrysler; all three are headquartered in Detroit) the UAW announced that\nthe union\u2019s strike authorization vote passed with near universal approval from the 150,000 union workers at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. . . The vote does not guarantee a strike will be called, only that the union has the right to call a strike if the Big Three refuse to reach a fair deal.\nThe existing UAW contracts with the Big Three expire at 11:59 PM on September 14.", "date_begin": "2023-09-06", "date_close": "2023-09-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before September 19, 2023, credible sources report that the United Auto Workers (UAW) union has announced that they have called a strike against one or more of the Big Three Detroit automakers: General Motors, Ford, or Stellantis.\nFine Print\nAn announcement of a called strike is sufficient to resolve as Yes, even if the strike is later cancelled or delayed before taking place.\nA strike must be called by UAW to be sufficient, members of UAW conducting limited strikes that have not been called by UAW do not qualify.\nA strike authorization does not qualify, the strike must actually be called.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-07\", 0.8], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.507], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.494], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.558], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.582], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.573], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.561], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.561], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.552], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.559], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.561], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.557], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.568], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.569], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.579], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.578], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.578], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.58], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.568], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.564], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.558], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.557], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.548], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.548], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.544], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.544], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.544], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.546], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.546], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.542], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.543], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.543], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.543], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.543], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.543], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.542], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.537], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.538], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.536], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.536], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.532], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.532], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.539], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.597], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.602], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.591], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.592], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.604], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.604], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.603], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.603], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.608], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.61], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.61], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.612], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.612], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.609], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.611], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.614], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.613], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.613], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.613], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.616], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.62], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.621], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.622], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.622], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.622], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.624], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.622], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.629], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.625], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.626], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.626], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.626], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.637], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.655], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.656], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.663], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.668], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.673], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.669], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.671], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.677], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.681], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.682], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.688], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.702], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.717]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uaw-automakers-resume-labor-talks-stellantis-hikes-wage-offer-2023-09-16/\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/14/uaw-strikes-ford-gm-stellantis.html\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/14/uaw-strikes-ford-gm-stellantis.html\", \"https://twitter.com/UAW/status/1702533419148706021\", \"https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/uaw-strike-deadline-looms-as-talks-continue-with-gm-ford-and-stellantis-69b04c95\", \"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/live-blog/uaw-strike-ford-general-motors-stellantis-live-updates-rcna105134\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/15/business/auto-workers-strike/index.html\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/09/13/1199385180/uaw-strikes-big-three-ford-stellantis-gm-shawn-fain\", \"https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1702417885908381915\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/detroit-three-strike-deadline-nears-sides-remain-far-apart-2023-09-14/\", \"https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1702071755865514229\", \"https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1702071595898953897\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/uaw-offers-slightly-lower-raise-demand-to-detroit-s-automakers?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter\", \"https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1701321952151867623\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4E_tdlLyvI\", \"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uaw-strike-ford-gm-stellantis-stock-c3b4050c\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-10/even-a-brief-uaw-strike-seen-causing-billions-in-damage-to-us-economy?leadSource=uverify%20wall\", \"https://twitter.com/UAW/status/1699895846232592723\", \"https://apnews.com/article/auto-strike-gm-stellantis-ford-fain-uaw-d11dfb266ce962d1e3a4582d404ba27f\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/united-auto-workers-strike-uaw-demands-update\"]"}, {"question": "Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18681/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "In early September, India issued invitations to a state dinner at the G20 summit, which it is hosting, that referred to the President of India, Droupadi Murmu, as \"president of Bharat\". This sparked rumors that India may change its official name.\nAccording to the Guardian:\n[Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi] himself typically refers to India as Bharat, a word dating back to ancient Hindu scriptures written in Sanskrit, and one of two official names for the country under its constitution.\nMembers of his Hindu nationalist ruling party, Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), have previously campaigned against using the name India, which has its roots in western antiquity and was imposed during the British conquest.\nThe government has called a special session of parliament for later in the month, but remains tight-lipped about its legislative agenda, but the broadcaster News18 said unnamed government sources had told it that BJP lawmakers would put forward a special resolution to give precedence to the name Bharat.\nThe special session of Parliament is scheduled to run from September 18 to September 22.", "date_begin": "2023-09-06", "date_close": "2023-09-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after September 7, 2023 and before September 23, 2023, credible sources report that a bill has been introduced in the Parliament of India that would change the name of the country to Bharat. If India remains an official name in the proposed bill (including if the proposed bill would leave the wording referring to the official names in India's constitution unchanged) but the bill would make Bharat the more prominent official name to be used in most aspects of governance this would resolve as Yes. If such a bill would make the name India no longer an official name, leaving the name Bharat as the only official name, this question will also resolve as Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-07\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.541], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.458], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.477], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.424], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.379], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.402], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.41], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.407], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.401], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.405], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.409], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.407], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.407], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.403], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.413], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.414], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.407], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.407], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.404], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.404], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.401], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.399], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.399], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.401], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.398], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.387], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.384], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.389], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.389], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.389], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.383], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.39], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.39], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.391], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.391], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.389], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.37], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.358], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.328], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.299], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.284], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.268], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.239], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.231], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.222], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.221], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.219], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.219], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.222], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.223], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.228], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.228], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.223], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.221], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.227], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.232], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.237], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.238], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.239], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.238], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.233], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.235], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.236], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.239], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.237], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.24], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.245], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.247], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.244], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.249], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.244], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.242], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.242], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.241], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.24], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.225], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.216], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.205], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.184], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.173], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.151], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.148], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.142], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.121]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/modi-promises-historic-decisions-at-special-parliament-session?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&leadSource=uverify%20wall\", \"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/special-session-of-parliament-pm-modi-chandrayaan-3-success-g20-summit-india-presidency/articleshow/103746915.cms?from=mdr\", \"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/parliament-special-session-live-updates/liveblog/103742897.cms\", \"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/special-session-of-parliament-set-to-begin-on-monday-amid-buzz-over-surprise-agenda/articleshow/103734434.cms?from=mdr\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganesh_Chaturthi?useskin=vector\", \"https://sundayguardianlive.com/top-five/constituent-assembly-debated-bharat-india-on-18-sept-1949-special-session-on-18-sept-2023\", \"https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-poll/todays-poll/article67273239.ece\", \"https://odishabytes.com/governments-tentative-list-for-parliaments-special-session-4-bills-no-mention-of-india-vs-bharat/\", \"https://www.indy100.com/news/india-name-change-bharat-pakistan\", \"https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1700453929618677836\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions\", \"https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/easier-said-than-done-what-it-will-take-to-change-indias-name-to-bharat-13083972.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18684/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The potential for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve an exchange-traded fund (ETF) directly tracking the price of the cryptocurrency Ethereum has generated enthusiasm within the investment community. Such a product would offer conventional retail investors straightforward exposure to this emergent digital asset by trading on public stock exchanges like existing ETFs.\nAn SEC-approved Ethereum ETF would constitute a watershed moment for increased mainstream and institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. By providing a regulated on-ramp for retail investors to gain price exposure to Ethereum, an ETF could rapidly multiply investment flows. The resulting supply-demand imbalance would likely apply significant appreciation pressure on ETH prices.\nSee https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/09/06/cathy-woods-ark-invest-files-for-first-spot-ether-etf/", "date_begin": "2023-09-07", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if a statement appears on the SEC's official website https://www.sec.gov/news/pressreleases stating that a US Ethereum spot ETF has been approved before January 1, 2024.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-08\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.342], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.359], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.359], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.379], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.398], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.394], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.377], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.371], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.368], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.349], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.363], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.359], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.347], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.342], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.316], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.298], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.286], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.276], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.281], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.282], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.271], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.281], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.264], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.257], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.254], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.261], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.261], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.266], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.283], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.261], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.252], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.239], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.234], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.226], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.226], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.218], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.211], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.211], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.197], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.196], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.188], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.186], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.184], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.177], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.171], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.164], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.163], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.152], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.141], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.136], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.121], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.118], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.109], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/09/06/cathy-woods-ark-invest-files-for-first-spot-ether-etf/\", \"https://www.sec.gov/news/pressreleases\", \"https://twitter.com/SenLummis/status/1745199815221272716\", \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-sec-delays-decision-listing-grayscale-ethereum-futures-trust-etf-2023-12-18/\", \"https://cryptoslate.com/sec-opens-comment-period-for-fidelitys-proposed-ethereum-etf/\", \"https://cryptoslate.com/sec-opens-comment-period-for-fidelitys-proposed-ethereum-etf/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IalCpNwQpxs\", \"https://cointelegraph.com/news/fidelity-spot-ethereum-etf\", \"https://tinyurl.com/2u6em78d\", \"https://blockworks.co/news/blackrock-ishares-ether-etf\", \"https://cointelegraph.com/news/clarification-sharing-false-spot-bitcoin-etf-news\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18690/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The background has been copied and updated from this previous question.\nFollowing the Russian invasion of Ukraine both countries agreed to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Wikipedia describes as follows:\nThe Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [2022] led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. Additionally Russia temporarily halted its grain exports, further exacerbating the situation. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia weaponizing food supplies. To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, valid for a period of 120 days. The July agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis. A joint coordination and inspection center was set up in Turkey, with the UN serving as secretariat.\n. . .\nThe original agreement was set to expire on 19 November 2022. Russia suspended its participation in the agreement for several days due to a drone attack on Russian naval ships elsewhere in the Black Sea, but rejoined following mediation. On 17 November 2022, the UN and Ukraine announced that the agreement had been extended for a further 120 days. In March 2023, Turkey and the UN announced that they secured a second extension for at least another 60 days. In May 2023, the deal was once again extended for 60 days, expiring on 18 July.\nThe grain deal expired in July after Russia withdrew. In early September, T\u00fcrkiye (formerly Turkey) has been in talks with Russia to revive the deal, though as of September 7, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far held firm to demands such as only returning to the deal when western nations lift restrictions on banking and logistics.", "date_begin": "2023-09-07", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before October 1, 2023, credible sources report that the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been reinstated. To qualify, both Ukraine and Russia must agree to the reinstatement; if it is reported that the deal has been reinstated but either Ukraine or Russia is no longer a party to the agreement then the question will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThis question will still resolve as Yes even if the reinstatement is reported to alter the original terms, so long as credible sources refer to the Black Sea Grain Initiative as being revived or reimplemented, even under a different name. If there are conflicting reports or statements Metaculus will rely primarily on official statements from the United Nations and may resolve the question as Ambiguous if the situation is unclear.\nThis question will resolve as No if an agreement is announced but the start date of the renewed agreement is not before October 1, 2023.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-08\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.216], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.174], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.174], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.206], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.206], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.198], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.184], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.183], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.181], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.182], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.182], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.183], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.182], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.182], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.182], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.142], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.14], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.137], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.124], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.117], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.099], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.097], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.092], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.092], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.092], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.092], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.092], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.084], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.081], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.074], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.072], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.072], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.069], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.069], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.063], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.056]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18693/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Republican primary debates are an opportunity for candidates to present themselves to US voters. As of the creation of this question, the Republican field has a lot of candidates hoping to secure the nomination from the DNC.\nThe current polling favorite is Donald Trump, with 50%+ average polling, with Ron Desantis, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy and others hoping to increase their percentages. This polling advantage has likely encouraged Trump to skip the first Republican debate on August 23rd 2023.\nAs a result however, it appears that according to several media sources such as FiveThirtyEight, Trump has lost some support in the GOP primary.\nIn the first debate, Trump participated in an interview with Tucker Carlson on X (twitter), and his mughshot was posted by the Fulton County Jail department, which allowed him to dominate the headlines, potentially taking media attention away from other GOP candidates. However, the next time around, he may not be subject to major news events, therefore risking his fall into the background after the 2nd debate.\nIt's possible to assume that considering the relative fractionalization of the Republican voter base, the more debates Trump doesn't show up, the more GOP voters and party get used to considering an alternative candidate.\nThis raises the question, \"Will Trump participate in the 2nd Republican presidential debate on September 27th?\"", "date_begin": "2023-09-07", "date_close": "2023-09-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if Donald Trump is on the debate stage as a participant for the second Republican presidential debate on September 27th, 2023.\nFine Print\nIf the date of the debate is moved, or if the scheduled debate is cancelled, the question resolves based on whether Trump participates in the second debate of the 2024 presidential election season that is sanctioned by the Republican National Committee.\nIf the second debate is not held, the question is annulled.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-13\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.214], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.187], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.174], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.206], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.184], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.191], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.196], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.196], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.179], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.184], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.184], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.171], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.172], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.172], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.174], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.178], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.178], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.171], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.171], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.189], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.189], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.183], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.183], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.177], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.177], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.173], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.166], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.149], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.139], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.142], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.132], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.132], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.126], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.108], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.106], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.091], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.086], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.086], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.081], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.081], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.081], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.074], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.069], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.067], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.067], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.067], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.063], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.051]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#who-resolves\", \"https://apnews.com/article/republican-second-presidential-debate-2024-46ce9209b5150d577d5ff361522f6bed\", \"https://www.c-span.org/video/?530700-1/fmr-pres-trump-holds-rally-detroit\", \"https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/09/18/donald-trump-skip-gop-debate-auto-workers/70890013007/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18696/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 is an extraordinary piece of legislation which contains the following passages:\nNON-HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.\u2014The term \u2018\u2018non-human intelligence\u2019\u2019 means any sentient intelligent non-human lifeform regardless of nature or ultimate origin that may be presumed responsible for unidentified anomalous phenomena or of which the Federal Government has become aware.\n...\nTECHNOLOGIES OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN.\u2014 The term \u2018\u2018technologies of unknown origin\u2019\u2019 means any materials or meta-materials, ejecta, crash de- bris, mechanisms, machinery, equipment, assemblies or sub-assemblies, engineering models or processes, damaged or intact aerospace vehicles, and damaged or intact ocean-surface and undersea craft associated with unidentified anomalous phenomena or incorporating science and technology that lacks prosaic attribution or known means of human manufacture.\n...\nSEC. ll10. DISCLOSURE OF RECOVERED TECHNOLOGIES OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN AND BIOLOGICAL EVIDENCE OF NON-HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.\nIntroduced on a bipartisan basis, it passed the US Senate as part of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. It now awaits action in the House, pending the end of the federal fiscal year on September 30, 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-09-07", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if the US Congress passes, and President Biden signs, a bill which includes the language of the proposed Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023. The bill must be signed into law by the end of the day on September 30, 2023, the end of the current federal fiscal year, for a Yes resolution to occur.\nThe Disclosure Act may be contained within another bill. For instance, the language is currently part of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. If that bill passes, with the Disclosure Act language intact, the question resolves Yes.\nThe question may resolve Yes if amendments are made to the proposed language, as long as the following core components remain in the legislation:\nDefinitions of \"non-human intelligence\" and \"technologies of unknown origin,\" or similarly equivalent phrases\nReferences to objects which lack prosaic attribution due to performance characteristics and properties not previously known to be achievable based upon commonly accepted physical principles.\nA requirement that the US government have eminent domain over recovered technologies of unknown origin and biological evidence of non-human intelligence\nThe creation of an independent agency that will rule on disclosure of pertinent items\nFine Print\nIn the event of amendments, Metaculus administrators may use judgement in evaluating whether the core component remain in the legislation.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-13\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.482], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.489], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.47], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.47], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.464], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.433], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.422], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.423], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.419], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.418], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.418], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.418], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.41], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.41], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.41], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.379], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.368], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.369], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.363], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.353], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.353], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.331], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.334], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.316], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.309], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.307], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.301], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.301], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.295], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.291], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.291], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.287], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.287], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.286], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.272], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.244], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.241], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.203], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.189], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.179], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.161], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.153], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.153], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.144], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.126], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.091], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.105], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.106], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.109], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.109], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.096], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.096], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.099], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.099], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.096], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.097], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.088], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.086], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.085]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670?s=3&r=6\", \"https://www.heritage.org/defense/report/the-best-outcome-the-us-military-and-us-security-recommendations-the-fy-2024\", \"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670/text\", \"https://keating.house.gov/policy-work/legislative-process\", \"https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/fall-congressional-outlook\"]"}, {"question": "Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18854/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "See the previous edition of this question here.\nKevin McCarthy was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives on January 7, 2023, after 15 ballots, the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and concessions to the House Freedom Caucus \u2014 including rules that allow any member of the House to call for a vote that would oust the Speaker by simple majority \u2014 have weakened his position as Speaker.\nThe rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt those of the 117th Congress with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The amended rules remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).\n1. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.\n2. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.\n(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.\n(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.\n(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn.\nOn September 19, 2023, journalist Matt Laslo claimed to have discovered a draft motion to vacate the office of Speaker of the House in a bathroom in the US Capitol, with Matt Gaetz as the member to submit the resolution.", "date_begin": "2023-09-19", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before October 1, 2023, a member of the Republican Party introduces a resolution to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House and a vote on the resolution is held. Both the introduction of the resolution and the vote must occur before October 1, 2023. Otherwise this question resolves as No. The outcome of the vote and any such resolutions introduced by representatives who are not Republicans are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-20\", 0.66], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.241], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.138], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.132], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.126], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.121], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.076], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.076], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.066], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.049], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.046], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.046], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.046], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.042], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.037]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.businessinsider.com/mccarthy-bring-it-republican-critics-speaker-ouster-stopgap-spending-bill-2023-9\", \"https://twitter.com/RepMattGaetz/status/1705056966723162295\", \"https://twitter.com/rachaelmbade/status/1704929503594586612\"]"}, {"question": "Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18859/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region that has been the location of ongoing conflict - and two wars - between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia.\nAzerbaijan dubbed its actions \"anti-terrorist activities.\" Armenia's Prime Minister accused Azerbaijan of trying to draw Armenia into a military conflict.\nFrance condemned Azerbaijan's actions and called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Armenian media reported the meeting would convene on September 21st. A previous emergency meeting in August did not result in a Security Council resolution.\nRussia holds a permanent seat on the Security Council, and Russian peacekeeping troops are in Nagorno-Karbakh. Historically Armenia has been one of Russia's closest allies, but last week Armenia conducted joint drills with US soldiers. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told Politico:\n\u201cOur strategy should be to try in this situation to maximally decrease our dependency on others. We want to have an independent country, a sovereign country, but we have to have ways to avoid ending up in the center of clashes between West and East, North and South \u2026 There cannot be a case when Armenia becomes a \u2018proxy.\u2019 This is not permissible.\u201d", "date_begin": "2023-09-19", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if the UN Security Council adopts a resolution related to the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes before October 1, 2023. A Security Council resolution that does not mention Nagorno-Karabakh, but mentions both Armenia and Azerbaijan, will also be sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-20\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.284], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.281], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.209], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.172], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.161], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.148], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.142], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.13], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.114], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.104], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.098], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.106], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.097], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.097], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.087], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.086], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.086], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.088], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.083], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.083], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.083], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.074], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.073], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.073], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.072], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.072], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.082], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.081], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.086], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.088], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.091], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.083], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.082], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.082], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.082], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.082], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.073], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.073], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.07], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.068], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.063], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.066], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.066], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.066], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.066], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.063], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.063], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.053], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.051], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.051]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://ambasadat.gov.al/united-nations/plan-of-work-of-the-security-council-for-september-2023-albanian-presidency/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Nations_Security_Council_resolutions_on_the_Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict?wprov=sfla1\", \"https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3804775.html\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/28/nagorno-karabakh-separatist-government-says-dissolve-azerbaijan-armenia\", \"https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/events/programme-work\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66905581\", \"https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1704521610491732044?s=20\", \"https://x.com/Caucasuswar/status/1704446459314114793?s=20\", \"https://sputnikglobe.com/20230920/unsc-emergency-meeting-on-nagorno-karabakh-to-convene-on-september-21-says-yerevan-1113513775.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18860/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Stepanakert, also known as Khankendi, is the largest city in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The region is mostly ethnic Armenian, but is a de jure part of Azerbaijan, which has led to continuous disputes and two wars.\nThe region is accessible from Armenia via the Lachin corridor:\nAzerbaijan blockaded this route to Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022, leading to shortages of food and medical supplies.\nOn September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched an \"anti-terror\" operation in Nagorno-Karabakh and demanded \"'illegal Armenian military formations' to hand over arms and dissolve their 'illegal regime'.\" Azerbaijan's actions were condemed by Western nations, including the United States, which urged \"Azerbaijan to cease military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh immediately and deescalate the situation.\"", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if, on September 30, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Stepanakert / Khankendi is under de facto Azerbaijani control. It resolves No if the consensus of credible reports is that Stepanakert / Khankendi is under control of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh, or another breakaway entity. The question also resolves No if the consensus of credible reports is that control of the city is disputed.\nThe question resolves Ambiguously if there is no consensus of credible reports.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-20\", 0.66], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.532], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.762], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.848], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.871], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.877], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.887], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.912], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.912], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.93], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.932], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.933], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.919], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.918], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.914], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.915], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.916], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.913], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.913], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.912], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.906], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.905], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.907], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.907], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.907], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.907], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.905], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.901], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.903], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.888], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.884], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.886], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.885], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.881], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.882], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.882], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.873], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.872], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.865], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.863], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.848], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.851], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.851], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.852], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.852], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.855], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.847], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.841], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.841], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.837], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.843], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.844], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.846], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.848], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.849], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.848], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.849], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.849], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.851], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.854], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.856], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.86], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.86], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.86], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.861], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.864], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.866], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.867], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.87], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.874], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.877], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.877], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.878], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.878], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.883], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.885], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.888], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.894], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.898], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.899], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.902], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.902], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.902], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.903], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.905]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nagorno-karabakh-armenia-azerbaijan-refugees-b2421023.html\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axdKnZ4sYhA&list=FLf7mp4UMZGt7IHgbyBPjPrg&index=3\", \"https://apnews.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-separatist-4c5983327329e01c8647dffaddc486b6\", \"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/Macarthur_hirohito.jpg\", \"https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1707692438964305944\", \"https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1707694335980892482\", \"https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1708495391887376809\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepanakert\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/world/europe/nagorno-karabakh-government.html\", \"https://en.armradio.am/2023/10/01/artsakh-president-a-group-of-officials-will-stay-in-stepanskert-until-rescue-operations-are-completed/\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/20/asia/nagorno-karabakh-russia-ceasefire-intl/index.html\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/28/europe/nagorno-karabakh-officially-dissolve-intl/index.html\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/30/asia/un-mission-nagorno-karabakh-intl-hnk/index.html\", \"https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1707692438964305944\", \"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nagorno-karabakh-population-flees-separatist-state-dissolve-rcna117791\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/27/more-than-a-third-of-nagorno-karabakhs-ethnic-armenians-flee-says-yerevan?traffic_source=rss\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/armenia-calls-un-mission-monitor-rights-nagorno-karabakh-2023-09-24/\", \"https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1120478\", \"https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1706324226242756670\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/24/world/europe/armenians-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan.html\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1706013935407698424\", \"https://news.sky.com/story/120000-karabakh-armenians-to-leave-region-after-azerbaijan-regains-control-12968794?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/23/nagorno-karabakh-talks-separatists-lay-down-arms-amid-fears-of-refugee-crisis\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/us-calls-azerbaijan-halt-karabakh-attack-russia-urges-return-ceasefire-2023-09-20/?taid=650b48422f3b2d000145636e&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter\", \"https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1704534912563351771\", \"https://x.com/Caucasuswar/status/1704446459314114793?s=20\"]"}, {"question": "Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19089/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Bob Menendez, a Democratic U.S. Senator from New Jersey, has had a long-standing political career, serving in the Senate since 2006. Before his tenure in the Senate, Menendez held various other political positions, including serving in the House of Representatives from 1993 to 2006.\nOn September 22, 2023, Menendez was federally indicted on bribery charges along with his wife, Nadine Menendez. The Department of Justice alleges that Menendez and his wife were indicted for accepting bribes from three New Jersey businessmen, Wael Hana, Jose Uribe, and Fred Daibes:\naccepted hundreds of thousands of dollars of bribes from HANA, URIBE, and DAIBES in exchange for MENENDEZ\u2019s agreement to use his official position to protect and enrich them and to benefit the Government of Egypt. Among other things, MENENDEZ agreed and sought to pressure a senior official at the U.S. Department of Agriculture in an effort to protect a business monopoly granted to HANA by Egypt, disrupt a criminal case undertaken by the New Jersey Attorney General\u2019s Office related to associates of URIBE, and disrupt a federal criminal prosecution brought by the U.S. Attorney\u2019s Office for the District of New Jersey against DAIBES.\nA number of Senate Democrats have recently called for Menendez to resign, including a call on September 26 from Senator Cory Booker, who holds the other Senate seat from New Jersey.", "date_begin": "2023-09-26", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before October 1, 2023, US Senator Bob Menendez has announced that he will resign from his Senate seat.\nFine Print\nMenendez need not actually vacate his seat before October 1, 2023, only an announcement that he will resign is required.\nAn announcement that he will not seek reelection does not qualify.\nThe announcement must be unequivocal and not an announcement that he is considering resignation or similar.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-27\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.042], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.109], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.108], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.108], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.153], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.194], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.179], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.177], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.178], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.172], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.166], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.166], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.171], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.172], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.164], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.156], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.157], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.153], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.151], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.149], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.147], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.145], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.144], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.137], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.123], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.124], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.123], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.121], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.123], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.104], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.101], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.097], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.088], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.084], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.084], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.082], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.079], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.074], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.074], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.073], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.07], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.068], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.057], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.052], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.049], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.047], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.046], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.046], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.045]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://nypost.com/2023/09/28/menendez-tells-colleagues-he-wont-resign-day-after-bribery-arraignment/\", \"https://michiganadvance.com/2023/09/28/menendez-to-address-u-s-senate-democrats-thursday-about-his-indictment/\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/27/bob-menendez-pleads-not-guilty-bribery\", \"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1707057064202158542\"]"}, {"question": "Will VVD win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19094/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The fall of the Rutte IV cabinet on the 7th of July has further exacerbated an already turbulent period in Dutch politics. Though the fall was triggered by immigration issues, it comes after various high profile scandals and policy disputes, the most important of which is the nitrogen emission policy. This triggered widespread farmers' demonstrations and gave rise to the agrarian BBB party, which won the States-Provincial elections of 2023, gaining the highest number of seats in every province.\nThe political situation is made further unstable by a remarkable exodus among established figures across the ruling coalition. Three out of four party leaders announced their retirement from national politics, with many more prominent members following suit. At the same time, the two mainstream leftwing parties, PvdA and GL, announced they would participate in the elections as one alliance, with one list of candidates and one candidate for prime minister. Lastly, Pieter Omtzigt, a popular former CDA member, started the Christian Democratic NSC party, focusing on issues of parliamentary oversight over the government and social security.\nCustomarily, party leaders are put forward as candidates for prime minister, but to date Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) and Caroline van der Plas (BBB) both stated they would remain in parliament. The former of the two has not put forward an alternative candidate and the latter has put forward former CDA State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Mona Keijzer.", "date_begin": "2023-09-27", "date_close": "2023-11-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The listed party which wins the highest number of seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections will resolve as Yes. All other parties will resolve as No. If two parties have the same number of seats, both of them will resolve as Yes. If a party which is not listed wins the highest number of seats, all questions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf two parties announce that they will participate in the elections with a shared list of candidates (e.g. PvdA-GL), they will be considered as one party for the purposes of this question. For example, if two of the listed parties announce a shared list and the joined party wins the most seats, both of the listed parties would resolve as Yes. In case of any ambiguity the grouping of Politico will be followed.\nIf no parliamentary election occurs before January 1, 2024, all questions will be Annulled. If there are two or more parliamentary elections in 2023, only the first election will be considered by this question.\nThis question will resolve according to reports from credible sources. In the event credible media reports indicate that a certain party has won but official results later contradict the initial reports the question will be re-resolved according to the official results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.363], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.342], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.322], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.307], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.298], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.291], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.303], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.303], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.298], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.306], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.318], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.311], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.311], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.326], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.326], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.327], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.327], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.337], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.336], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.339], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.346], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.342], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.343], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.341], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.341], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.341], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.338], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.338], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.342], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.342], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.342], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.351], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.351], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.351], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.374], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.374], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.374], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.376], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.376], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.377], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.376], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.377], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.377], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.377], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.378], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.378], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.387], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.409], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.409], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.388], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.388], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.391], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.392], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.396], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.396], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.395], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.396], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.394], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.394], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.394], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.401], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.401], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.401], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.401], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.394], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.396], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.397], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.397]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will PvdA-GL win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19095/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The fall of the Rutte IV cabinet on the 7th of July has further exacerbated an already turbulent period in Dutch politics. Though the fall was triggered by immigration issues, it comes after various high profile scandals and policy disputes, the most important of which is the nitrogen emission policy. This triggered widespread farmers' demonstrations and gave rise to the agrarian BBB party, which won the States-Provincial elections of 2023, gaining the highest number of seats in every province.\nThe political situation is made further unstable by a remarkable exodus among established figures across the ruling coalition. Three out of four party leaders announced their retirement from national politics, with many more prominent members following suit. At the same time, the two mainstream leftwing parties, PvdA and GL, announced they would participate in the elections as one alliance, with one list of candidates and one candidate for prime minister. Lastly, Pieter Omtzigt, a popular former CDA member, started the Christian Democratic NSC party, focusing on issues of parliamentary oversight over the government and social security.\nCustomarily, party leaders are put forward as candidates for prime minister, but to date Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) and Caroline van der Plas (BBB) both stated they would remain in parliament. The former of the two has not put forward an alternative candidate and the latter has put forward former CDA State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Mona Keijzer.", "date_begin": "2023-09-27", "date_close": "2023-11-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The listed party which wins the highest number of seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections will resolve as Yes. All other parties will resolve as No. If two parties have the same number of seats, both of them will resolve as Yes. If a party which is not listed wins the highest number of seats, all questions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf two parties announce that they will participate in the elections with a shared list of candidates (e.g. PvdA-GL), they will be considered as one party for the purposes of this question. For example, if two of the listed parties announce a shared list and the joined party wins the most seats, both of the listed parties would resolve as Yes. In case of any ambiguity the grouping of Politico will be followed.\nIf no parliamentary election occurs before January 1, 2024, all questions will be Annulled. If there are two or more parliamentary elections in 2023, only the first election will be considered by this question.\nThis question will resolve according to reports from credible sources. In the event credible media reports indicate that a certain party has won but official results later contradict the initial reports the question will be re-resolved according to the official results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.49], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.44], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.473], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.397], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.368], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.331], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.313], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.314], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.308], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.308], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.303], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.304], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.301], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.301], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.301], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.313], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.319], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.319], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.314], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.311], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.308], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.307], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.307], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.297], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.297], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.298], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.303], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.288], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.287], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.287], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.279], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.273], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.261], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.258], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.258], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.258], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.258], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.258], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.258], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.257], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.257], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.251], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.244], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.233], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.232], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.232], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.232], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.229], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.229], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.241], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.24]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will BBB win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19096/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The fall of the Rutte IV cabinet on the 7th of July has further exacerbated an already turbulent period in Dutch politics. Though the fall was triggered by immigration issues, it comes after various high profile scandals and policy disputes, the most important of which is the nitrogen emission policy. This triggered widespread farmers' demonstrations and gave rise to the agrarian BBB party, which won the States-Provincial elections of 2023, gaining the highest number of seats in every province.\nThe political situation is made further unstable by a remarkable exodus among established figures across the ruling coalition. Three out of four party leaders announced their retirement from national politics, with many more prominent members following suit. At the same time, the two mainstream leftwing parties, PvdA and GL, announced they would participate in the elections as one alliance, with one list of candidates and one candidate for prime minister. Lastly, Pieter Omtzigt, a popular former CDA member, started the Christian Democratic NSC party, focusing on issues of parliamentary oversight over the government and social security.\nCustomarily, party leaders are put forward as candidates for prime minister, but to date Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) and Caroline van der Plas (BBB) both stated they would remain in parliament. The former of the two has not put forward an alternative candidate and the latter has put forward former CDA State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Mona Keijzer.", "date_begin": "2023-09-27", "date_close": "2023-11-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The listed party which wins the highest number of seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections will resolve as Yes. All other parties will resolve as No. If two parties have the same number of seats, both of them will resolve as Yes. If a party which is not listed wins the highest number of seats, all questions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf two parties announce that they will participate in the elections with a shared list of candidates (e.g. PvdA-GL), they will be considered as one party for the purposes of this question. For example, if two of the listed parties announce a shared list and the joined party wins the most seats, both of the listed parties would resolve as Yes. In case of any ambiguity the grouping of Politico will be followed.\nIf no parliamentary election occurs before January 1, 2024, all questions will be Annulled. If there are two or more parliamentary elections in 2023, only the first election will be considered by this question.\nThis question will resolve according to reports from credible sources. In the event credible media reports indicate that a certain party has won but official results later contradict the initial reports the question will be re-resolved according to the official results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.082], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.048]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will NSC win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19097/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The fall of the Rutte IV cabinet on the 7th of July has further exacerbated an already turbulent period in Dutch politics. Though the fall was triggered by immigration issues, it comes after various high profile scandals and policy disputes, the most important of which is the nitrogen emission policy. This triggered widespread farmers' demonstrations and gave rise to the agrarian BBB party, which won the States-Provincial elections of 2023, gaining the highest number of seats in every province.\nThe political situation is made further unstable by a remarkable exodus among established figures across the ruling coalition. Three out of four party leaders announced their retirement from national politics, with many more prominent members following suit. At the same time, the two mainstream leftwing parties, PvdA and GL, announced they would participate in the elections as one alliance, with one list of candidates and one candidate for prime minister. Lastly, Pieter Omtzigt, a popular former CDA member, started the Christian Democratic NSC party, focusing on issues of parliamentary oversight over the government and social security.\nCustomarily, party leaders are put forward as candidates for prime minister, but to date Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) and Caroline van der Plas (BBB) both stated they would remain in parliament. The former of the two has not put forward an alternative candidate and the latter has put forward former CDA State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Mona Keijzer.", "date_begin": "2023-09-27", "date_close": "2023-11-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The listed party which wins the highest number of seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections will resolve as Yes. All other parties will resolve as No. If two parties have the same number of seats, both of them will resolve as Yes. If a party which is not listed wins the highest number of seats, all questions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf two parties announce that they will participate in the elections with a shared list of candidates (e.g. PvdA-GL), they will be considered as one party for the purposes of this question. For example, if two of the listed parties announce a shared list and the joined party wins the most seats, both of the listed parties would resolve as Yes. In case of any ambiguity the grouping of Politico will be followed.\nIf no parliamentary election occurs before January 1, 2024, all questions will be Annulled. If there are two or more parliamentary elections in 2023, only the first election will be considered by this question.\nThis question will resolve according to reports from credible sources. In the event credible media reports indicate that a certain party has won but official results later contradict the initial reports the question will be re-resolved according to the official results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.38], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.39], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.363], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.363], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.342], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.342], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.339], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.342], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.383], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.356], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.358], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.356], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.357], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.364], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.355], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.359], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.354], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.353], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.352], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.353], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.353], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.361], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.361], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.361], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.361], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.361], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.361], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.361], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.359], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.359], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.366], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.368], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.368], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.368], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.366], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.356], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.355], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.358], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.358], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.358], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.362], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.361], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.361], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.362], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.362], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.362], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.361], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.361], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.362], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.364], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.395], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.407], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.411], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.411], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.416], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.422], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.421], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.421], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.421], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.418], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.426], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.427], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.427], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.418], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.422], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.421], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.424], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.419], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.424], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.419], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.411], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.411], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.411], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.404], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.396], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.392], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.392]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will D66 win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19098/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The fall of the Rutte IV cabinet on the 7th of July has further exacerbated an already turbulent period in Dutch politics. Though the fall was triggered by immigration issues, it comes after various high profile scandals and policy disputes, the most important of which is the nitrogen emission policy. This triggered widespread farmers' demonstrations and gave rise to the agrarian BBB party, which won the States-Provincial elections of 2023, gaining the highest number of seats in every province.\nThe political situation is made further unstable by a remarkable exodus among established figures across the ruling coalition. Three out of four party leaders announced their retirement from national politics, with many more prominent members following suit. At the same time, the two mainstream leftwing parties, PvdA and GL, announced they would participate in the elections as one alliance, with one list of candidates and one candidate for prime minister. Lastly, Pieter Omtzigt, a popular former CDA member, started the Christian Democratic NSC party, focusing on issues of parliamentary oversight over the government and social security.\nCustomarily, party leaders are put forward as candidates for prime minister, but to date Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) and Caroline van der Plas (BBB) both stated they would remain in parliament. The former of the two has not put forward an alternative candidate and the latter has put forward former CDA State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Mona Keijzer.", "date_begin": "2023-09-27", "date_close": "2023-11-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The listed party which wins the highest number of seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections will resolve as Yes. All other parties will resolve as No. If two parties have the same number of seats, both of them will resolve as Yes. If a party which is not listed wins the highest number of seats, all questions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf two parties announce that they will participate in the elections with a shared list of candidates (e.g. PvdA-GL), they will be considered as one party for the purposes of this question. For example, if two of the listed parties announce a shared list and the joined party wins the most seats, both of the listed parties would resolve as Yes. In case of any ambiguity the grouping of Politico will be followed.\nIf no parliamentary election occurs before January 1, 2024, all questions will be Annulled. If there are two or more parliamentary elections in 2023, only the first election will be considered by this question.\nThis question will resolve according to reports from credible sources. In the event credible media reports indicate that a certain party has won but official results later contradict the initial reports the question will be re-resolved according to the official results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.027], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.082], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.046]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will PVV win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19099/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The fall of the Rutte IV cabinet on the 7th of July has further exacerbated an already turbulent period in Dutch politics. Though the fall was triggered by immigration issues, it comes after various high profile scandals and policy disputes, the most important of which is the nitrogen emission policy. This triggered widespread farmers' demonstrations and gave rise to the agrarian BBB party, which won the States-Provincial elections of 2023, gaining the highest number of seats in every province.\nThe political situation is made further unstable by a remarkable exodus among established figures across the ruling coalition. Three out of four party leaders announced their retirement from national politics, with many more prominent members following suit. At the same time, the two mainstream leftwing parties, PvdA and GL, announced they would participate in the elections as one alliance, with one list of candidates and one candidate for prime minister. Lastly, Pieter Omtzigt, a popular former CDA member, started the Christian Democratic NSC party, focusing on issues of parliamentary oversight over the government and social security.\nCustomarily, party leaders are put forward as candidates for prime minister, but to date Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) and Caroline van der Plas (BBB) both stated they would remain in parliament. The former of the two has not put forward an alternative candidate and the latter has put forward former CDA State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Mona Keijzer.", "date_begin": "2023-09-27", "date_close": "2023-11-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The listed party which wins the highest number of seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections will resolve as Yes. All other parties will resolve as No. If two parties have the same number of seats, both of them will resolve as Yes. If a party which is not listed wins the highest number of seats, all questions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf two parties announce that they will participate in the elections with a shared list of candidates (e.g. PvdA-GL), they will be considered as one party for the purposes of this question. For example, if two of the listed parties announce a shared list and the joined party wins the most seats, both of the listed parties would resolve as Yes. In case of any ambiguity the grouping of Politico will be followed.\nIf no parliamentary election occurs before January 1, 2024, all questions will be Annulled. If there are two or more parliamentary elections in 2023, only the first election will be considered by this question.\nThis question will resolve according to reports from credible sources. In the event credible media reports indicate that a certain party has won but official results later contradict the initial reports the question will be re-resolved according to the official results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.104], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.104], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.098], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.098], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.079]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will CDA win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19100/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The fall of the Rutte IV cabinet on the 7th of July has further exacerbated an already turbulent period in Dutch politics. Though the fall was triggered by immigration issues, it comes after various high profile scandals and policy disputes, the most important of which is the nitrogen emission policy. This triggered widespread farmers' demonstrations and gave rise to the agrarian BBB party, which won the States-Provincial elections of 2023, gaining the highest number of seats in every province.\nThe political situation is made further unstable by a remarkable exodus among established figures across the ruling coalition. Three out of four party leaders announced their retirement from national politics, with many more prominent members following suit. At the same time, the two mainstream leftwing parties, PvdA and GL, announced they would participate in the elections as one alliance, with one list of candidates and one candidate for prime minister. Lastly, Pieter Omtzigt, a popular former CDA member, started the Christian Democratic NSC party, focusing on issues of parliamentary oversight over the government and social security.\nCustomarily, party leaders are put forward as candidates for prime minister, but to date Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) and Caroline van der Plas (BBB) both stated they would remain in parliament. The former of the two has not put forward an alternative candidate and the latter has put forward former CDA State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Mona Keijzer.", "date_begin": "2023-09-27", "date_close": "2023-11-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The listed party which wins the highest number of seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections will resolve as Yes. All other parties will resolve as No. If two parties have the same number of seats, both of them will resolve as Yes. If a party which is not listed wins the highest number of seats, all questions will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nIf two parties announce that they will participate in the elections with a shared list of candidates (e.g. PvdA-GL), they will be considered as one party for the purposes of this question. For example, if two of the listed parties announce a shared list and the joined party wins the most seats, both of the listed parties would resolve as Yes. In case of any ambiguity the grouping of Politico will be followed.\nIf no parliamentary election occurs before January 1, 2024, all questions will be Annulled. If there are two or more parliamentary elections in 2023, only the first election will be considered by this question.\nThis question will resolve according to reports from credible sources. In the event credible media reports indicate that a certain party has won but official results later contradict the initial reports the question will be re-resolved according to the official results.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.157], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.067], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.061]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19104/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Tokmak is a city in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast in Ukraine. It has a population of nearly 30,000. At the time of writing, it lies about 20km from the frontlines. The general purportedly leading Ukraine\u2019s counteroffensive has said that liberating Tokmak is \"the minimum goal\u201d of the Ukrainian counteroffensive that started in June, 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-09-28", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War's map shows the Velikiy Tokmak railway station in Tokmak (47.234273433498416, 35.71907485774982) as not under either \"assessed Russian advance\" or \"assessed Russian control\". Notably, the railway station is on the southern end of the town.\nIf the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for the assessed territory, then Metaculus will decide according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources.\nIf, at the time of resolution, the Velikiy Tokmak railway station no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will be resolved based on control of the area where the building was located on the 21st of February 2022, the latest Google Earth image of the station available at the time of writing.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-06\", 0.001], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.132], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.129], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.158], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.179], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.158], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.153], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.153], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.148], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.133], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.133], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.131], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.101], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.082], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.067], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.043], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.043], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.042], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.041], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.041], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.041], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.036]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15849/ukrainian-control-of-mariupol-jan-1-2024/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File%3A%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%96%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BB_3747374.jpeg\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/\", \"https://deepstatemap.live\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15412/ukraine-control-of-melitopol-at-end-of-2023/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Rep. Barbara Lee (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19116/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.113], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.172], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.172], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.127], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.064], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.059], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.058], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.054], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.061], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.078], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.077], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.051]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Rep. Adam Schiff (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19117/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.074], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.069], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.027], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.039], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.123], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.111], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.119], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.119], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.119], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.076]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Rep. Katie Porter (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19118/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.093], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.106], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.106], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.097], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.056], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.062], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.049], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.103], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.094], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.081], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.081], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.104], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.102], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.082], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.069]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19119/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.283], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.288], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.262], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.262], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.312], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.273], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.288], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.288], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.304], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.304], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.304], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.304], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.291], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.291], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.263], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.263], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.263], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.263], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.258], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.269], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.269], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.269], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.243], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.236], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.217], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.232], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.237], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.237], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.216], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.201], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.206], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.253], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.253], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.263], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.247], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.233], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.236], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.233], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.193], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.184], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.172], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.172], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.172]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Rep. Maxine Waters (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19120/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.175], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.254], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.254], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.262], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.273], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.273], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.26], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.266], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.235], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.217], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.214], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.214], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.218], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.218], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.218], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.207], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.201], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.201], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.197], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.199], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.198], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.211], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.214], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.202], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.188], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.171], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.171], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.174], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.172], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.172], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.164], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.144]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Mayor Karen Bass (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19121/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.103], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.182], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.185], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.163], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.163], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.158], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.158], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.158], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.156], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.156], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.154], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.149], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.129], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.127], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.148], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.151], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.132], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.159], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.163], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.163], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.168], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.168], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.182], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.178], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.177], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.167], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.157], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.147], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.147], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.147]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19122/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.047], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.172], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.148], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.123], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.117], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.128], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.128], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.147], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.114], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.114], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.106]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Holly Mitchell (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19124/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.233], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.143], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.159], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.159], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.151], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.151], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.151], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.134], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.118], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.082], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.052]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19128/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On September 29, 2023, NATO announced that it was increasing troop presence in Kosovo after violence between Serbian insurgents and Kosovan police in Kosovo on September 24, 2023.\nAdditionally, John Kirby of the White House National Security Council stated on September 29:\nWe are monitoring a large Serbian military deployment along the border that includes unprecedented staging of advanced Serbian artillery, tanks, and mechanized infantry units. We believe that this is a very destabilizing development.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after September 28, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that one or more of the following have occurred:\nAt least 100 overtly flagged members of the Serbian military have entered Kosovan territory.\nAt least 100 overtly flagged members of the Kosovan military have entered Serbian territory.\nCombat between overtly flagged forces of the Serbian and Kosovan militaries has resulted in an estimated 50 or more military deaths within a 30 day period.\nFine Print\nWhere estimates of deaths are provided as a range the median will be used. If sources provide conflicting estimates or if it is unclear if the specified threshold has been met Metaculus may resolve the question as Ambiguous.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-30\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.333], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.458], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.502], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.405], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.323], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.238], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.234], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.209], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.164], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.129], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.127], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.092], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.092], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.07], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.07], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.067], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.066], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.066], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.066], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.066]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1708901563735875909?s=20\", \"https://x.com/kos_data/status/1708451478933741928?s=46&t=cXdD8mr2aUd1iK-SVi8Sdw\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1707841072083112429\"]"}, {"question": "Will Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19129/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.03], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.104], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.146], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.159], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.129], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.111], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.111], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.121], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.092], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.048]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Hunter Biden (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19130/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.016], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.014], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.014], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.011], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.009], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.004], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.004], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.004]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Angela Glover Blackwell (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19137/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-30", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.103], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.103], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.152], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.153], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.164], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.164], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.152], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.159], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.162], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.164], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.164], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.184], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.161], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.159], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.147], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.147], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.137]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Lateefah Simon (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19138/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-30", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.112], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.123], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.101], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.059]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Mayor London Breed (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19139/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-30", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.107], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.158], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.133], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.129], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.073]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Laphonza Butler (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19140/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-30", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.122], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.101], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.188], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.261], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.341], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.261], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.341], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.261], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.414], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.475]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Malia Cohen (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19141/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-30", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.054]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Justice Leondra Kruger (D) the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19142/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein died on September 28, 2023.\nCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom will select a temporary replacement, who will serve the remainder of Feinstein's term.\nNewsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, but he recently said that if Feinstein did not complete her term he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman who is running for Feinstein\u2019s seat.\nNewsome has also said he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter. The primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-09-30", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-question resolves Yes for the individual selected to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein by the Governor of California (currently, Gavin Newsom), and No for all other sub-questions.\nThe question resolves on the basis of an announcement from the Office of the Governor, or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.03], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.028], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.071], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.123], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.092], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.083]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Atlanta Braves win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19152/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.287], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.287], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.272], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.284], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.244], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.268], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.268], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.267], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.284], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.278], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.277], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.267], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.263], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.277], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.278], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.296], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.288], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.287]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19153/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.198], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.193], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.174], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.206], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.206], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.202], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.189], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.188], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.182], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.176], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.167], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.158], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.124]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19154/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.046]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19155/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.133], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.133], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.151], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.148], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.148], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.154], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.156], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.161], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.168], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.182], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.219], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.258], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.259], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.269], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.268], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.273], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.276], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.294], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.298], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.324], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.338], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.338], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.343], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.346], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.338], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.34], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.347], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.347], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.347], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.347], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.347], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.347], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.338], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.337], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.343], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.348], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.348], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.349], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.352], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.353], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.358], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.358], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.364], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.342], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.332], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.326], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.321], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.316], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.312], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.306], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.302]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Miami Marlins win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19156/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.013], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.013], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.012], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.018]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19157/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.119], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.123], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.129], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.121], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.117], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.134], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.134], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.142], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.138], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.138], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.138], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.123], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.176], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.147], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.158], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.161], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.168], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.211], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.222], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.241], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.272], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.354], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.374], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.378], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.377], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.377], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.373], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.374], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.369], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.363], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.317], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.312], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.308], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.316], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.331], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.331], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.333], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.332], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.334], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.326], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.312], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.304], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.304], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.296], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.296], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.281], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.281], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.249], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.236], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.224], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.215]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19158/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.132], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.148], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.132], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.169], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.169], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.163], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.153], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.147], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.139], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.135]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19159/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.064]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Houston Astros win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19160/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.193], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.193], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.181], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.186], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.188], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.182], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.169], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.202], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.202], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.207], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.212], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.209], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.203], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.208], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.211], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.212], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.219], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.226], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.256], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.261], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.272], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.273], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.282], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.314], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.319], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.319], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.301], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.309], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.303], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.272], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.257], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.258], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.243], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.233], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.221], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.217], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.222], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.242], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.243], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.244], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.257], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.257], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.257], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.257], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.257], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.257], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.263], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.279], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.292], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.286], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.287], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.286], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.292], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.293], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.286], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.282], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.273], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.273], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.286], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.287], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.288], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.288], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.271], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.258]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Texas Rangers win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19161/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.092], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.134], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.129], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.132], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.151], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.152], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.152], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.153], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.158], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.159], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.162], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.174], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.168], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.164], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.173], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.189], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.193], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.193], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.236], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.238], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.234], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.238], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.238], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.237], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.253], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.258], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.256], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.241], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.254], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.234], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.227], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.221], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.222], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.219], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.208], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.221], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.235], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.236], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.236], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.256], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.282], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.312], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.342], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.385], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.394], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.402], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.479], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.486], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.492], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.519], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.521], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.522], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.515], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.506], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.502], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.501], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.501], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.499], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.498], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.506], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.518], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.518], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.526], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.547], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.588], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.611], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.626]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19162/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.046]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Minnesota Twins win the 2023 World Series?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19163/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the team that wins the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, and No for all other teams.\nHere is the playoff bracket:", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.128], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.128], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.123], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.122], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.119], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.112], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.101]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Kevin McCarthy (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19179/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.114], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.114], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.112], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.101], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.101], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.086]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Jim Jordan (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19180/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.162], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.163], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.172], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.171], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.174], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.268], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.372], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.405], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.527], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.551], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.548], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.566], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.564], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.564], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.568], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.566], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.561], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.557], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.556], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.557], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.554], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.562], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.562], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.553], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.553], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.553], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.553], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.549], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.492], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.388], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.38], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.336], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.322], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.394], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.433], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.506], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.503], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.507], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.508], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.502], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.494], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.494], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.497], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.503], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.498], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.498], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.508], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.508], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.511], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.504], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.488], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.474], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.445], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.433], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.426], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.421], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.412], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.382], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.379], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.374], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.376], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.369], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.336], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.312], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.304], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.294], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.293], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.287], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.279], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.271], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.269], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.264], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.259], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.258], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.256], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.252], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.242], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.236], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.229]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Andy Biggs (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19181/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.027], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.034]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Jim Banks (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19182/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.037]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Patrick McHenry (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19183/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.151], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.141], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.082], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.092], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.092], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.151], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.163], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.182], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.208], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.204], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.207], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.209], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.226], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.232], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.228], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.234], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.233], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.236], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.236], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.236], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.232], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.232], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.228], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.222], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.197]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Elise Stefanik (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19184/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.041]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Hakeem Jeffries (D) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19185/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.052]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Don Bacon (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19186/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.037]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Steve Scalise (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19187/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.539], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.542], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.572], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.584], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.576], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.548], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.517], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.463], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.441], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.433], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.417], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.388], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.381], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.378], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.377], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.379], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.379], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.379], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.387], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.389], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.39], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.392], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.399], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.402], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.404], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.405], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.405], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.404], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.407], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.469], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.588], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.624], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.632], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.632], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.467], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.376], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.294], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.266], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.233], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.222], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.202], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.187], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.181], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.179], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.177], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.176], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.176], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.174], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.166], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.163], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.162], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.157], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.156], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.144], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.141], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.139], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.138], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.138], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.138], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.138], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.134], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.132], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.131], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.123]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Donald Trump (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19188/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.114], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.046]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Byron Donalds (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19189/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.044]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Fred Upton (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19190/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.035]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Kevin Hern (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19191/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.054]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19192/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Since 1999, the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) has been active in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to aid in stabilizing the region during and after the Second Congo War. The original mission was known as the United Nations Organization Mission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC) until 2010 when it was replaced by MONUSCO. According to the UN:\nThe new mission has been authorized to use all necessary means to carry out its mandate relating, among other things, to the protection of civilians, humanitarian personnel and human rights defenders under imminent threat of physical violence and to support the Government of the DRC in its stabilization and peace consolidation efforts.\nMONUSCO has been planning for a withdrawal from the DRC, however in September of 2023 DRC President Felix-Antoine Tshisekedi insisted that the start of MONUSCO's \"accelerated retreat\" should begin a year sooner, at the end of December 2023. Following Tshisekedi's statement, the UN Security Council \"expressed its readiness to decide, by the end of this year and as a matter of priority, the future of MONUSCO and its gradual, responsible and sustainable withdrawal, as well as realistic and concrete steps to be taken in that regard.\"\nThe UN had extended the MONUSCO mandate for one year on December 20, 2022, authorizing a troop ceiling as follows:\n. . . MONUSCO\u2019s authorised troop ceiling will comprise 13,500 military personnel, 660 military observers and staff officers, 591 police personnel, and 1,410 personnel of formed police units, and invites the Secretariat to consider further reduction of MONUSCO\u2019s level of military deployment, in line with the joint strategy on the progressive and phased drawdown of MONUSCO (S/2020/1041).\nAn August 2023 Report of the Secretary-General](https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-repub\u2026) described options for the future of the mission and included the following paragraph:\nAs a first step towards the Mission\u2019s full withdrawal, the force would consolidate its presence in the 13 high-risk territories of Ituri, as well as North and South Kivu. This would be accompanied by a rationalization of permanent and temporary bases that would allow the force to reduce its reliance on framework battalions in favour of units that are more fit for purpose in the current context. All units from South Kivu (southern sector) would subsequently be repatriated together with one static framework battalion from North Kivu (central sector) and some specialist units, military observers and staff officers, resulting in a reduction of its current deployed strength from 12,500 to approximately 10,500 military personnel. As the Mission\u2019s focus shifts to North Kivu and Ituri, it would nonetheless retain projection capacity for South Kivu. The generation of heavy artillery and attack helicopters to enable MONUSCO to support FARDC and maintain a credible posture vis-\u00e0-vis armed groups, both foreign and Congolese, would remain a priority.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after November 15, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, MONUSCO's mission has been renewed or extended with a troop ceiling of 11,000 \"military personnel\" or more.\nFine Print\nOnly the troop ceiling for \"military personnel\" will be counted for this question, other personnel such as military observers and staff officers, police personnel, or personnel of formed police units will be immaterial.\nActual deployed strength is immaterial to the question, this question only refers to the the authorized troop ceiling on \"military personnel\".\nIf the mandate is not renewed or otherwise extended this question will resolve as No.\nThe question will still resolve as Yes if the renewal or extension is referred to as something other than a mandate, so long as MONUSCO's mission in the DRC is extended for any period of time with a qualifying troop ceiling.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-15\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.449], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.419], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.392], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.443], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.429], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.427], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.425], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.444], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.464], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.459], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.453], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.449], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.451], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.469], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.473], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.471], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.466], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.491], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.486], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.484], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.481], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.471], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.443], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.448], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.432], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.422], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.394], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.347], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.315], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.251], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.248], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.242], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.239], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.233], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.227], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.224], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.228], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.227], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.227], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.227], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.227], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.227], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.227], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.231], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.232], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.229], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.225], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.229], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.227], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.227], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.232], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.232], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.259], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.261], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.277], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.281], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.286], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.288], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.297], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.297], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.291], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.287], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.291], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.296], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.317], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.323], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.324], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.334], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.336], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.342], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.351], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.354], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.354], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.359], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.359], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.361], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.364], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.364], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.376], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.381], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.382], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.382], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.382], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.382], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.383], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.509]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-repub\\u2026)\", \"https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15538.doc.htm\", \"https://undocs.org/Home/Mobile?FinalSymbol=S%2FRES%2F2717(2023)&Language=E&DeviceType=Desktop&LangRequested=False\", \"https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15538.doc.htm\", \"https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/12/1144952\", \"https://onu.delegfrance.org/the-protection-of-civilians-must-remain-the-priority\", \"https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2023/12/democratic-republic-of-the-congo-vote-on-monusco-mandate-renewal.php\", \"https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/monusco-withdrawal-starts-january-in-south-kivu/\", \"https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2284.pdf\", \"https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N17/191/58/PDF/N1719158.pdf?OpenElement\", \"https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/monusco-withdrawal-starts-january-in-south-kivu/\", \"https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3895770?ln=en\", \"https://minusma.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/res_2690_2023_en.pdf\", \"https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2284.pdf\", \"https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N16/084/94/PDF/N1608494.pdf?OpenElement\", \"https://monusco.unmissions.org/en/pr-government-democratic-republic-congo-and-monusco-sign-disengagement-plan-withdrawal-mission\", \"https://monusco.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/pr-the_government_of_the_democratic_republic_of_the_congo_and_monusco_sign_a_disengagement_plan_for_the_withdrawal_of_the_mission.pdf\", \"https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/pr-government-of-democratic-republic-of-congo-and-monusco-sign-disengagement-plan-withdrawal-of\"]"}, {"question": "Will Nancy Mace (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19193/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.063], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.027], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.033]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Tom Emmer (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19195/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.229], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.197], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.121], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.096], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.093], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.102], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.107], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.104], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.119], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.149], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.164], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.182], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.192], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.199], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.201], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.208], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.223], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.226], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.231], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.232], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.235], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.234], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.239], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.241], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.242], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.269], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.193], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.169], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.129], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.117], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.112]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19297/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Mid Bedfordshire constituency in Bedfordshire, UK has been held by the Conservatives since 1931, with Nadine Dorries as MP since 2005. On June 9, 2023, Dorries unexpectedly announced she was resigning as MP \"with immediate effect\", triggering a by-election. However, she then delayed formally resigning until August 29, with the by-election now being scheduled for October 19, 2023.\nThe Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Greens and others have all selected candidates: The Conservatives have selected Bedfordshire Police Commissioner Festus Akinbusoye as their candidate. Labour chose Alistair Strathern, a former math teacher, London councillor and Bank of England climate lead. The Liberal Democrats selected local councillor Emma Holland-Lindsay. Other candidates include Reform UK's Dave Holland, independent councillor Gareth Mackey, and candidates from the Greens and other parties.\nThe seat is expected to be closely fought, with polling form early September showing Conservatives and Labour at 29% and Lib Dems at 22%. At the last election (2019 general election), Dorries won the constituency with a majority of 24,664 votes, that being 59.8% of the votes.", "date_begin": "2023-10-06", "date_close": "2023-10-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a candidate for the UK Conservative party is declared the winner of the 2023 Mid Bedfordshire election, as reported by the BBC.\nFine Print\nThis question will resolve as the first by-election being held before 2024. If there is a re-run for whatever reason, or if there is a second by-election, replacing the candidate winning the first one, the results of the first run will determine the resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.388], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.407], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.433], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.455], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.467], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.458], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.44], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.454], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.464], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.458], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.466], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.473], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.465], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.463], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.461], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.456], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.453], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.452], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.452], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.459], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.461], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.465], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.466], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.466], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.467], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.467], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.464], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.466], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.461], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.467], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.464], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.462], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.464], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.464], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.466], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.465], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.464], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.464], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.469], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.469], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.471], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.477], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.478], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.479], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.479], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.479], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.481], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.479], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.479], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.479], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.481], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.487], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.488], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.489], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.487], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.486], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.483], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.488], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.487], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.486], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.486], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.483], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.483], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.481], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.481], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.481], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.489], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.489], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.491], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.491], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.492], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.492]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-67147435\", \"https://members.parliament.uk/member/5000/contact\", \"https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3603/overview\", \"https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3603/election/416\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-67147435\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-67126173\", \"https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1715190707537813782\", \"https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1715152211309691267\", \"https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1714250238666404249\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/14/labour-and-lib-dems-in-bitter-battle-over-mid-bedfordshire-byelection-nadine-dorries\"]"}, {"question": "Will top institutions participating in the UK\u2019s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19306/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "This question was written in partnership with the Effective Institutions Project.\nThe UK AI Safety Summit is taking place November 1st and 2nd, 2023. According to Computerworld:\nThe five objectives of the UK government\u2019s summit are:\nDevelop a shared understanding of the risks posed by frontier AI and the need for action\nPut forward process for international collaboration on frontier AI safety, including how best to support national and international frameworks\nPropose appropriate measures which individual organisations should take to increase frontier AI safety\nIdentify areas for potential collaboration on AI safety research, including evaluating model capabilities and the development of new standards to support governance\nShowcase how ensuring the safe development of AI will enable AI to be used for good globally.\nArguably a large part of whether the summit is successful lies in whether or not leading AI labs, and the governments that regulate them, make commitments that they would not have made had the summit not been convened.", "date_begin": "2023-10-06", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if the UK AI Safety Summit results in a joint declaration or statement, endorsed by at least five of the top institutions cited in Effective Institutions Project\u2019s AI governance primer who are also participating parties (nations and/or labs) in the Summit, that includes at least three of the following commitments proposed by the Future of Life Institute:\nAn agreement to reconvene in six months (or less) to work on AI governance\nA commitment to increase public funding for AI safety research\nA commitment by signatory nations to develop a national-level AI strategy that contains at least two of the following measures:\nStandards for advanced AI, with associated benchmarks and thresholds for dangerous capabilities\nMandatory pre-deployment audits for potentially dangerous AI systems by independent third parties\nMonitoring of entities with large-scale AI compute concentrations\nSafety protocols to prevent systems with dangerous capabilities from being developed, deployed, or stolen\nRestrictions on open source AI based on capability thresholds\nImmediate enhancement of cybersecurity standards at leading AI companies\nAdaptation of national liability law to AI-specific challenges\nA post-summit working group with a mandate to develop a blueprint for international AI governance\nEncouragement of AI labs to share information with the UK Foundation Model Task Force\nThe question also resolves Yes if no such declaration is issued, but the Future of Life Institute issues a public statement indicating that the outcomes from the summit have nevertheless exceeded the organization\u2019s expectations.\nFine Print\nA joint declaration or statement endorsed by at least five of the following institutions or official representatives of the institutions attending the Summit is required for resolution:\nThe United States government\nThe Chinese government\nThe European Union\nOpenAI\nGoogle DeepMind\nAnthropic\nAlphabet\nMicrosoft\nAmazon\nMeta\nA joint statement meeting these criteria must be publicly available before November 10, 2023, or 168 hours following the end of the Summit, whichever is later.\nIf the UK AI Summit does not take place before March 1, 2024, this question will resolve as No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.343], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.408], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.456], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.488], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.499], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.519], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.517], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.515], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.497], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.497], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.509], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.508], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.487], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.477], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.477], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.467], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.467], [\"2023-10-17\", 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It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\nIn the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the Six-Day War in 1967, when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the Oslo Accords the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, Hamas, an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the 2007 clashes. Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the Palestinian Authority.\nOn October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.\nAccording to Foreign Policy:\nInitial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the 2014 and 2021 crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, using paragliders among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, \u201cWe are at war,\u201d and launched Operation Iron Swords, conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already claimed 232 lives in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.", "date_begin": "2023-10-08", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if at any point between Oct 7, 2023 and Dec 31, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Hamas no longer has de facto control of the majority of the land area of the Gaza Strip. 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\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_the_Gaza_Strip\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khan_Yunis\", \"https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1723386229675208739\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureij\", \"https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1723386229675208739/photo/2\", \"https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1723287892552712503\", \"https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Brk/status/1723000466257203543\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/7/the-gaza-strip-explained-in-maps\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-military-spokesperson-says-hamas-has-lost-control-northern-gaza-2023-11-08/\", \"https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1722331665425379487\", \"https://x.com/deitaone/status/1722320817625723015?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://bpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/sites.umassd.edu/dist/f/1316/files/2023/01/Defining-consensus-A-systematic-review-recommends-methodologic-criteria-for-reporting-of-Delphi-studies.pdf\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyo9TRBLIVg\", \"https://x.com/israelwarroom/status/1722126700551573667?s=46&t=Q8LD2QyLJFWE33bvny4qSQ\", \"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-usa-islamicstate/u-s-estimates-50000-islamic-state-fighters-killed-so-far-u-s-official-idUSKBN13X28N\", \"https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state#:~:text=ref_src%3Dtwsrc%5Etfw-,Dec.,the%20group%20two%20years%20ago.\", \"https://thehill.com/policy/defense/370150-experts-warn-isis-still-has-up-to-10000-loyalists-in-syria-iraq-report/\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/04/world/middleeast/isis-syria-al-qaeda.html\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/04/us/politics/israel-gaza-deaths-bombs.html\", \"https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1720154499619135581\", \"https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/gaza-strip-map-density-israel-hamas-conflict/assets/9qBF8wHiyh/scrolltwo-2-mobile-1080x1920.jpg\", 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\"https://graymirror.substack.com/p/gaza-and-the-nomos-of-the-earth\", \"https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/egypt-destroys-37-tunnels-which-infiltrated-from-gaza-in-2018-576410\", \"https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/10/anti-tunnel-flooding-and-barriers.html\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=5ij_KxKARkw\", \"https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/10/17/hamas-tunnels-under-gaza-will-be-a-key-battlefield-for-israel\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19308/hamas-loses-de-facto-control-of-gaza-by-2024/#comment-135231\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBfHf8browM&t=3s\", \"https://guide-humanitarian-law.org/content/article/3/proportionality/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20ICTY%2C%20the,the%20direct%20military%20advantage%20obtained.\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/17/world/gaza-news-israel-hamas-war/ff67e308-2511-5faa-9f6b-4c629f31a616?smid=url-share\", \"https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2023/10/17/did-hamas-rocket-misfire-just-take-out-a-hospital-in-gaza-city-n2629969\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/israel-hamas-war-gaza-live-updates-latest-news.html\", \"https://www.economist.com/international/2023/10/16/israel-needs-to-resist-irrational-retaliation\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1T3qS2Aicc\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_City\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip\", \"https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-war-c8b4fc20e4fd2ef381d5edb7e9e8308c#:~:text=JERUSALEM%20(AP)%20%E2%80%94%20Palestinians%20fled,the%20ruling%20Hamas%20militant%20group.\", \"https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/gaza-strip-map-density-israel-hamas-conflict/index.html\", \"https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/14/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-invasion.html\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/14/iran-warning-israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1713224508436258964\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg1OTmE_tCk\", \"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/gaza-ground-invasion-israel-00121452\", \"https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-hamas-war-iran-trap/675628/\", \"https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1712799104160444784\", \"https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1712798034478932312\", \"https://x.com/michaelh992/status/1712702290417627226?s=20\", \"https://x.com/michaelh992/status/1712704445157429347?s=20\", \"https://x.com/shashj/status/1712685287510286793?s=20\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel-gaza-hamas-evacuate-un-ground-operation\", \"https://tinyurl.com/FB-ISHAM-YT\", \"https://tinyurl.com/FB-ISHAM-YT\", \"https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1712198406167519373\", \"https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1712196510887113007?s=19\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Supreme_Leader_of_Iran_election#:~:text=As%20of%20October%202023%2C%20no,have%20written%20on%20potential%20candidates.&text=The%20succession%20of%20Ali%20Khamenei,considered%20a%20taboo%20in%20Iran.\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19308/hamas-loses-de-facto-control-of-gaza-by-2024/#comment-134821\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/project/isis-sanctuary-map\", \"https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/21/world/middleeast/how-isis-expands.html\", \"https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/israels-defence-minister-orders-complete-siege-of-gaza-power-to-be-cut-and-food-and-fuel-blocked-11502491.html\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1711322553506000899\", \"https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_War_(2008\\u20132009)\", \"https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1711311893166440793\", \"https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-689610\", \"https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1711158369552138326\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-08/israel-latest-fighting-continues-in-the-south-mortars-in-north?srnd=premium\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-44124396\", \"https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/article/israel-gaza-hamas-what-we-know.html\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67037895\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Gaza_War\"]"}, {"question": "Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19332/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.\nAccording to Foreign Policy:\nInitial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the 2014 and 2021 crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, using paragliders among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, \u201cWe are at war,\u201d and launched Operation Iron Swords, conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already claimed 232 lives in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The Wall Street Journal reported:\nIranian security officials helped plan Hamas\u2019s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\nOfficers of Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions\u2014the most significant breach of Israel\u2019s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War\u2014those people said.\nHowever, Iran has denied that it was involved and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated:\nIn this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That\u2019s something we\u2019re looking at very carefully, and we\u2019ve got to see where the facts lead.", "date_begin": "2023-10-09", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 9, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Israel has carried out an attack with damage occurring within the borders of the country of Iran that has killed at least five Iranians, and that either of the following is true:\nIsrael has explicitly acknowledged and taken credit for the attack\nIsrael performed the attack in an unobscured manner, such that credible sources report without ambiguity that the attack was carried out by Israel.\nFine Print\nThe attack need not involve Israeli forces within the borders of Iran, cross-border missile or ballistic attacks are sufficient.\nAn attack must be a kinetic attack, using weaponry or physical violence. A cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.\nIsrael will be considered to have explicitly acknowledged and taken credit for the attack if the Israeli government or any agency of the Israeli government publicly confirms that the attack was carried out by Israel.\nThe five deaths threshold must be met in the span of 24 hours, smaller events over a longer timespan would not count. The deaths do not need to occur in the same location, a coordinated strike on multiple targets in the country would be sufficient, as would multiple assassinations taking place in the same 24 hour span that Israel acknowledges and takes credit for.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.123], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.123], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.128], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.127], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.133], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.134], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.127], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.134], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.133], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.131], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.128], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.128], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.127], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.127], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.129], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.131], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.131], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.128], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.127], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.123], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.121], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.119], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.119], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.113], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.114], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.114], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.113], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.113], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.111], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.111], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.099], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.098], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.088], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.073]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2023-12-18/ty-article/70-of-irans-gas-stations-out-of-commission-pro-israel-hackers-claim-responsibility/0000018c-7c07-d55c-a7cc-ff07fddb0000>\", \"https://news.usni.org/2023/08/22/new-report-warns-u-s-allies-of-two-front-war-with-china-north-korea\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action\", \"https://twitter.com/SinaToossi/status/1714015183788523526\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/14/iran-warning-israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza\"]"}, {"question": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19333/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Gaza, also known as the Gaza Strip is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\nIn the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the Six-Day War in 1967, when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the Oslo Accords the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, Hamas, an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the 2007 clashes. Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the Palestinian Authority.\nOn October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.\nAccording to Foreign Policy:\nInitial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the 2014 and 2021 crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, using paragliders among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, \u201cWe are at war,\u201d and launched Operation Iron Swords, conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already claimed 232 lives in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\nYahya Sinwar is the Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip. Israel was previously reported to have threatened Sinwar in 2022 in response to his calls for violence against Israel, and some Israeli politicians have previously called for his assassination. Following the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel it was reported that Sinwar's home was bombed by Israel.", "date_begin": "2023-10-09", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Yahya Sinwar has either stepped down or been replaced as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip, been captured by Israel, or that he has died. The question will resolve as No if he continuously holds his position or if there is no reporting indicating a change in status.\nFine Print\nMetaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-09\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.597], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.625], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.627], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.611], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.611], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.611], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.614], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.617], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.607], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.607], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.606], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.602], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.596], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.581], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.577], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.557], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.549], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.549], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.549], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.551], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.549], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.548], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.544], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.546], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.547], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.551], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.539], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.536], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.529], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.532], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.527], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.528], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.526], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.526], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.526], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.532], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.527], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.521], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.509], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.502], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.489], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.489], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.488], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.479], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.473], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.466], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.436], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.422], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.404], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.393], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.387], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.383], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.38], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.379], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.38], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.379], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.373], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.374], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.373], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.384], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.401], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.399], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.397], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.397], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.399], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.396], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.397], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.397], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.387], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.376], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.345], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.337], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.332], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.321], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.314], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.297], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.292], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.271], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.261], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.258], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.258], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.255]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-yahya-sinwar-said-to-narrowly-evade-capture-by-idf-two-separate-times/\", \"https://archive.is/yrGQd\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/12/10/israel-hunt-most-wanted-person-in-gaza-hamas-war\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-considers-flooding-gaza-tunnels-with-seawater-wsj-2023-12-05/\", \"https://nationalpost.com/news/world/israel-middle-east/hamas-leaders-gaza-home-surrounded#:~:text=The%20Israel%20Defense%20Forces%20has,a%20statement%20on%20Wednesday%20night.\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-6-2023\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pm-idf-encircling-sinwars-home-israel-pressuring-for-icrc-visits-to-hostages/\", \"https://vxtwitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1732445091418226808?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1732443628667011142?s=19\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/sinwar-reportedly-visited-group-of-hostages-being-held-in-gaza-tunnel/\", \"https://nypost.com/2023/11/07/news/idf-reaches-heart-of-gaza-traps-senior-most-hamas-leader-in-bunker-israel/amp/\", \"https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1720858067716411815\", \"https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1714289932842488024\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1713637330299302058\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/14/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-invasion.html\", \"https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1712798034478932312\", \"https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1712198406167519373\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1711728067368964215\"]"}, {"question": "Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19336/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Gaza, also known as the Gaza Strip is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians. Before Hamas seized power, Gaza was governed by the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) whose headquarters was the the Palestinian Legislative Council building in the neighborhood of Rimal in Gaza City.\nIn the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the Six-Day War in 1967, when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the Oslo Accords the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, Hamas, an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the 2007 clashes. Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the Palestinian Authority.\nOn October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.\nAccording to Foreign Policy:\nInitial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the 2014 and 2021 crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, using paragliders among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, \u201cWe are at war,\u201d and launched Operation Iron Swords, conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already claimed 232 lives in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.", "date_begin": "2023-10-09", "date_close": "2023-11-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before the listed dates, credible sources report that explicitly flagged members of Israeli military ground forces performing a military operation in Gaza have reached the location of the Palestinian Legislative Council building, located at Omer El Mokhtar Street in Gaza.\nFine Print\nReports do not need to explicitly mention the building. The following would also be considered sufficient evidence:\nReports of nearby landmarks having been reached that characterize Israeli forces as present in the surrounding area encompassing the building location.\nA map indicating that Israeli forces are nearby and present in the surrounding area encompassing the building location.\nA map indicating that Israeli forces have control of the area at the building location.\nA peaceful or diplomatic visit to the building does not qualify, forces must reach the building as part of a military operation, or following the surrender of Hamas forces in the region.\nCovert operations where the presence of Israeli forces is unclear do not qualify, the forces must be explicitly flagged and their presence acknowledged by either Israel or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.512], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.507], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.512], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.515], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.522], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.502], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.513], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.518], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.509], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.516], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.527], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.541], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.542], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.551], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.557], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.553], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.554], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.554], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.558], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.558], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.561], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.561], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.559], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.553], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.551], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.549], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.547], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.539], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.542], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.538], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.534], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.525], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.521], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.518], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.497], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.497], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.49], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.443], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.434], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.373], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.346], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.326], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.322], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.311], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.307], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.307], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.304], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.299], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.298], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.293], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.286], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.276], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.274], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.271], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.264], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.273], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.277], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.277], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.276], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.276], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.273], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.274], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.272], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.269], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.269], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.269], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.266], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.269], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.269], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.263], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.249], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.249], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.249], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.244], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.242], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.203], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.201], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.201], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.194], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.192], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.189], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.187], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.188], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.186]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19337/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Gaza, also known as the Gaza Strip is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians. Before Hamas seized power, Gaza was governed by the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) whose headquarters was the the Palestinian Legislative Council building in the neighborhood of Rimal in Gaza City.\nIn the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the Six-Day War in 1967, when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the Oslo Accords the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, Hamas, an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the 2007 clashes. Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the Palestinian Authority.\nOn October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.\nAccording to Foreign Policy:\nInitial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the 2014 and 2021 crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, using paragliders among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, \u201cWe are at war,\u201d and launched Operation Iron Swords, conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already claimed 232 lives in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.", "date_begin": "2023-10-09", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before the listed dates, credible sources report that explicitly flagged members of Israeli military ground forces performing a military operation in Gaza have reached the location of the Palestinian Legislative Council building, located at Omer El Mokhtar Street in Gaza.\nFine Print\nReports do not need to explicitly mention the building. The following would also be considered sufficient evidence:\nReports of nearby landmarks having been reached that characterize Israeli forces as present in the surrounding area encompassing the building location.\nA map indicating that Israeli forces are nearby and present in the surrounding area encompassing the building location.\nA map indicating that Israeli forces have control of the area at the building location.\nA peaceful or diplomatic visit to the building does not qualify, forces must reach the building as part of a military operation, or following the surrender of Hamas forces in the region.\nCovert operations where the presence of Israeli forces is unclear do not qualify, the forces must be explicitly flagged and their presence acknowledged by either Israel or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.713], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.735], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.741], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.745], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.732], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.714], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.706], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.702], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.715], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.723], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.724], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.713], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.717], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.715], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.712], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.712], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.714], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.714], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.715], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.709], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.709], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.707], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.709], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.713], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.713], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.706], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.699], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.707], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.708], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.709], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.708], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.664], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.651], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.596], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.583], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.579], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.572], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.572], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.572], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.573], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.574], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.576], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.574], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.576], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.579], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.579], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.586], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.594], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.593], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.592], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.596], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.597], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.587], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.587], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.587], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.593], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.592], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.592], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.593], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.605], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.606], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.602], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.604], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.604], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.613], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.613], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.618], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.618], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.63], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.633], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.651], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.656], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.661], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.661], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.663], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.663], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.666], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.666], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.667], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.673], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.677], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.684], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.703], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.724], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.728], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.73]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19338/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Gaza, also known as the Gaza Strip is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians. Before Hamas seized power, Gaza was governed by the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) whose headquarters was the the Palestinian Legislative Council building in the neighborhood of Rimal in Gaza City.\nIn the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the Six-Day War in 1967, when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the Oslo Accords the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, Hamas, an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the 2007 clashes. Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the Palestinian Authority.\nOn October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.\nAccording to Foreign Policy:\nInitial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the 2014 and 2021 crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, using paragliders among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, \u201cWe are at war,\u201d and launched Operation Iron Swords, conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already claimed 232 lives in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.", "date_begin": "2023-10-09", "date_close": "2024-02-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before the listed dates, credible sources report that explicitly flagged members of Israeli military ground forces performing a military operation in Gaza have reached the location of the Palestinian Legislative Council building, located at Omer El Mokhtar Street in Gaza.\nFine Print\nReports do not need to explicitly mention the building. The following would also be considered sufficient evidence:\nReports of nearby landmarks having been reached that characterize Israeli forces as present in the surrounding area encompassing the building location.\nA map indicating that Israeli forces are nearby and present in the surrounding area encompassing the building location.\nA map indicating that Israeli forces have control of the area at the building location.\nA peaceful or diplomatic visit to the building does not qualify, forces must reach the building as part of a military operation, or following the surrender of Hamas forces in the region.\nCovert operations where the presence of Israeli forces is unclear do not qualify, the forces must be explicitly flagged and their presence acknowledged by either Israel or credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.798], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.827], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.836], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.822], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.831], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.836], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.826], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.824], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.824], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.828], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.828], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.829], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.831], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.827], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.824], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.828], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.828], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.829], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.824], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.817], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.802], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.807], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.806], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.807], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.806], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.793], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.76], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.728], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.719], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.717], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.718], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.714], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.712], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.714], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.715], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.714], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.718], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.722], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.722], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.723], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.717], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.726], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.732], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.732], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.734], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.734], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.734], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.739], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.737], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.726], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.729], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.729], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.738], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.738], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.738], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.743], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.747], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.754], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.76], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.758], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.756], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.756], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.762], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.772], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.774], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.774], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.782], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.784], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.794], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.794], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.799], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.799], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.801], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.801], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.802], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.803], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.806], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.813], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.824], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.826], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.841], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.842], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.842]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19358/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The U.S. federal funds target rate, often simply called the \"fed funds rate,\" is the interest rate at which depository institutions (primarily banks) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, this rate serves as a benchmark for various other interest rates in the economy, including those for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. The FOMC adjusts the rate to influence monetary conditions, aiming to achieve policy objectives such as full employment and stable prices. By raising or lowering the fed funds rate, the Federal Reserve can either cool down an overheated economy or stimulate economic activity, thereby indirectly influencing inflation, employment, and overall economic growth.\nSince July 26, 2023, the Federal Funds Rate has been at 5.25% to 5.50%. In late August, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech at Jackson Hole, where he emphasized the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target. Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has significantly tightened its monetary policy to combat persistently high inflation. While the inflation rate has declined from its peak, it remains elevated. Powell stated that the Fed is prepared to raise rates further if necessary and plans to maintain a restrictive policy stance until inflation is on a sustainable downward path. The speech also touched upon the complexities and uncertainties the Fed faces in balancing its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, particularly in the context of lingering pandemic-induced supply and demand dislocations.\nWhile there were no rate hikes in September, markets put an implied probability of 27.8% on the outcome of a rate rise before the end of the year, though much of this depends on economic factors that remain uncertain.", "date_begin": "2023-10-11", "date_close": "2023-12-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 17, 2023, and before December 18, 2023, the Federal Funds target range as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is higher than 5.25-5.50%.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.348], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.353], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.364], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.362], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.332], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.329], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.337], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.327], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.327], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.328], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.327], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.326], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.329], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.318], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.256], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.231], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.202], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.202], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.202], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.203], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.202], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.193], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.188], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.193], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.192], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.198], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.192], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.191], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.181], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.182], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.173], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.154], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.137], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.136], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.136], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.137], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.134], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.133], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.133], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.139], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.144], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.144], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.139], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.138], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.131], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.121], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.119], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.117], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.116], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.121], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.119], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.117], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.114], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.116], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.119], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.117], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.117], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.124], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.126], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.126], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.119], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.114], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.114], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.119], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.113]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7439/us-interest-rate-policy/\", \"https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1734971962105922013\", \"https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1735011787982929982\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-poised-hold-rates-steady-despite-economys-bullish-tone-2023-11-01/\", \"https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr\", \"https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\", \"https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting\"]"}, {"question": "Will Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee be invited to the APEC summit in November 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19361/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On July 27, 2023, the United States announced that it will bar Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, from attending the APEC summit, even though Hong Kong is an APEC member. Since then, the Hong Kong government has been appealing to the U.S. government to let him attend the trade talks.\nJohn Lee has been sanctioned by the US since August 2020 for suppressing pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Exiled activists from Hong Kong have been calling to ban him from APEC.\nChina has been vaguely hinting at the US to reconsider and invite John Lee to the APEC summit, but the US has not yield to China's demands.", "date_begin": "2023-10-12", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if a credible source reports that the Chief Executive of Hong Kong has received an invitation to attend the APEC summit from November 14-16, 2023 in the capacity of the leader of Hong Kong. It does not matter whether he accepts the invitation or not.\nThis question resolves No if there are no credible reports before November 14, 2023, that the Chief Executive of Hong Kong has received an invite to the APEC summit.\nFine Print\nThis question resolves Yes if the Chief Executive of Hong Kong changes and the new Chief Executive of Hong Kong is invited to the APEC summit.\nThe question is annulled if the 2023 APEC Summit is not held before December 31, 2023.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-27\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.27]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/hong-kong-leader-john-lee-miss-apec-meeting-104511553\", \"https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/hong-kong-leader-john-lee-miss-apec-meeting-104511553\", \"https://hongkongfp.com/2023/11/02/hong-kongs-john-lee-says-he-received-personal-invite-to-attend-apec-forum-in-us-despite-sanctions-row/\", \"https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3240040/sanctioned-hong-kong-leader-john-lee-did-get-invitation-apec-meeting-san-francisco-will-his-staying\", \"https://hongkongfp.com/2023/11/03/no-direct-answer-from-us-over-whether-hong-kongs-sanction-hit-john-lee-was-personally-invited-to-apec-in-san-fran/\", \"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3240574/us-lawmakers-ask-biden-explain-apec-invitation-hong-kongs-john-lee\"]"}, {"question": "Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19375/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, rocket and artillery fire was also exchanged between Israel and Hezbollah, a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war. The US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization.\nHezbollah has expressed support for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, raising concerns about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.", "date_begin": "2023-10-12", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-09", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that there have been 400 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.\nFine Print\nBoth combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.\nDeaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.\nIn the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.\nMetaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\nThe median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as Ambiguous if the estimates differ substantially.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-13\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.358], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.352], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.39], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.427], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.431], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.442], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.477], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.513], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.511], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.513], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.507], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.501], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.492], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.493], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.493], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.492], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.492], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.492], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.491], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.494], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.497], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.497], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.496], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.497], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.499], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.496], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.496], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.497], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.486], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.483], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.484], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.482], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.482], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.486], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.486], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.481], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.483], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.482], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.482], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.479], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.477], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.477], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.477], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.474], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.464], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.457], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.452], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.452], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.452], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.447], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.444], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.443], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.443], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.438], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.437], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.437], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.427], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.427], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.424], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.424], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.423], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.424], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.419], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.419], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.418], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.408], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.401], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.401], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.392], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.38], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.375], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.362], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.359], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.35], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.345], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.345], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.341], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.339], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.336], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.331], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.327], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.324], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.317], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.307], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.304], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.303]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hezbollah_conflict\", \"https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Lebanon_border_conflict#:~:text=At%20least%20110%20militants%20were,and%20three%20others%20were%20injured.\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waT_SN4TOxA\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/shelling-intensifies-lebanon-israel-border-2023-11-16/\", \"https://www.syriahr.com/en/316927/\", \"https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/hezbollah-details-israeli-losses-on-lebanese-border-since-oct-8/3039888\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Lebanon_border_clashes\", \"https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/10/iran-proxy-militias-syria-israel-hamas-war-irgc-escalation/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Lebanon_border_clashes\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Lebanon_border_clashes\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah#cite_note-Hezbollah_force-189\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah#cite_note-190\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/2023-10-27%20Iran%20Update.pdf\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/20/us/politics/biden-israel-hezbollah-war.html\", \"https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/germany-gives-austria-hungary-blank-check-assurance\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19492/israel-offensive-in-gaza-by-november-1-2023/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19308/hamas-loses-de-facto-control-of-gaza-by-2024/\", \"https://twitter.com/alishoeib1970/status/1715420561935872313?s=46\", \"https://twitter.com/AJABreaking/status/1714272930933440979?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7966/israel-hezbollah-war-by-2030/#comment-135390\", \"https://www.swiftcentre.org/israel-hamas-war-will-probably-be-the-deadliest-of-the-last-75-years-of-conflict/\", \"https://twitter.com/RealCynicalFox/status/1712883187267871094?t=36cDu9sMENaa7WWk24UaJA&s=19\"]"}, {"question": "Will Tom Cole (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19376/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-13", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.027], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.027], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.027], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.027], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.027]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Austin Scott (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19378/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-13", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-13\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.174], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.214], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.211], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.21], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.181], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.171], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.168], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.163], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.156], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.153], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.142], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.141], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.142], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.146], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.142], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.141], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.132], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.131], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.127], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.117], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.117], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.098], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.092], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.086], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.078], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.074], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.058], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.04]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19394/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Azerbaijiani President Ilham Aliyev has previously called on Armenia to open a \u201ccorridor\u201d along its southern border, linking mainland Azerbaijan to an exclave that borders Turkey and Iran. Aliyev has threatened to solve the issue \u201cby force.\u201d\nUS Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned lawmakers that his department is tracking the possibility that Azerbaijan could soon invade Armenia.\nAzerbaijan\u2019s operations against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region in the west of the country has resulted in Azerbaijani control of the region and there is the possibility of the conflict spreading.", "date_begin": "2023-10-14", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Each sub-question will resolve Yes if, between October 10, 2023, and January 1 of the year listed, either the Government of Azerbaijan or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that Azerbaijani ground troops have entered Armenian territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Azerbaijan and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Armenia or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and January 1 of the year indicated in the sub-question.\nFor the purpose of this question, Armenian territory is determined by the de jure border as of October 10, 2023 and does not include the Nagorno-Karabakh region or any other territory that is de jure part of Azerbaijan.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.405], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.383], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.233], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.214], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.191], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.226], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.226], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.226], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.226], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.226], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.218], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.218], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.206], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.194], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.194], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.182], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.184], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.172], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.151], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.154], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.154], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.146], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.146], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.141], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.141], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.136], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.126], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.123], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.118], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.112], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.107], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.064], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.064], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.064], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.062], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.062], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.06], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.059], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.058], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.058], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.058], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.058]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19406/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Booker Prize is an annual literary award for the best English-language novel published in the UK and Ireland. Established in 1969, it comes with a \u00a350,000 prize and is selected by a five-person expert panel. The award has broad cultural impact, often boosting the winner's book sales.\nThis year, the winner will be announced at an event at Old Billingsgate, London, on November 26, 2023. The short-listed books and authors are as follows.\nBook Title Author Summary\nThe Bee Sting Paul Murray A patch of ice on the road, a casual favour to a charming stranger, a bee caught beneath a bridal veil \u2013 can a single moment of bad luck change the direction of a life?\nWestern Lane Chetna Maroo Chetna Maroo's tender and moving debut novel about grief, sisterhood, a teenage girl's struggle to transcend herself \u2013 and squash.\nProphet Song Paul Lynch A mother faces a terrible choice, in Paul Lynch\u2019s exhilarating, propulsive and confrontational portrait of a society on the brink.\nThis Other Eden Paul Harding Full of lyricism and power, Paul Harding's spellbinding novel celebrates the hopes, dreams and resilience of those deemed not to fit in a world brutally intolerant of difference.\nIf I Survive You Jonathan Escoffery An exhilarating novel-in-stories that pulses with style, heart and barbed humour, while unravelling what it means to carve out an existence between cultures, homes and pay cheques.\nStudy for Obedience Sarah Bernstein In her accomplished and unsettling second novel, Sarah Bernstein explores themes of prejudice, abuse and guilt through the eyes of a singularly unreliable narrator.\nFor the first time in eight years, the shortlist for the Booker prize is male dominated, with two out of the four authors being women. Moreover, the past three prizes (2020, 2021, and 2022) have all been won by men too.\nAs the Guardian reports:\n\"Commenting on the fact that more men appear on the list than in recent years, Edugyan said that \u201cit\u2019s the strength and the quality of the work that landed these writers\u201d on the shortlist. Her fellow judge, the actor Robert Webb, joked that \u201cit was very much the work that we were concentrating on rather than whether or not they were called Paul\u201d.\"", "date_begin": "2023-10-15", "date_close": "2023-11-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if either Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize as announced by The Booker Prizes.\nIf either of them share the prize with any other author, this question will resolve as Yes too.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-09\", 0.333], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.35], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.342], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.364], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.354], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.371], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.384], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.371], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.366], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.364], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.349], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.353], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.35], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.339], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.337], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.342], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.342], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.341], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.346], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.342], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.341], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.339], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.341], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.339], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.333], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.333], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.333], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.333], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.337], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.337], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.336], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.337], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.337], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.337], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.337], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.331], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.331], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.332], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.331], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.328], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.329], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.329], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.329], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.327], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.329], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.33], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.332], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.328], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.325], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.328], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.324], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.324], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.324], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.323], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.323], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.322], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.319], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.312], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.309], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.312], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.312], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.313], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.307], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.309], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.306], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.314], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.314], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.315], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.318], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.317], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.316], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.314], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.312], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.314], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.313], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.315], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.315], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.316], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.314], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.312], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.311], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.31], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.308]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2023\", \"https://twitter.com/TheBookerPrizes/status/1728894668153184678\"]"}, {"question": "Will Brian Fitzpatrick (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19440/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-15", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.126], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.109], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.117], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.113], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.112], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.118], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.148], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.151], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.149], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.159], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.147], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.141], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.142], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.143], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.141], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.137], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.129], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.124], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.119], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.117], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.117], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.114], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.111], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.108], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.106], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.099], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.089], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.084], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.057], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.049], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.048]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19442/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Peter Bone, a British Conservative Party politician, served as Deputy Leader of the House of Commons in 2022 and has been representing Wellingborough as an MP since 2005. On 16 October 2023, he was recommended for suspension from the House of Commons by the Independent Expert Panel for multiple acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct against a staff member in 2012 and 2013. For the full report, see here.\nThe recommendation of the panel is a suspension of 6 weeks:\nThis is a serious case of misconduct. [\u2026] The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism. [\u2026]\nThis wilful pattern of bullying also included an unwanted incident of sexual misconduct, when the complainant was trapped in a room with the respondent in a hotel in Madrid, [\u2026]. This was a deliberate and conscious abuse of power using a sexual mechanism: indecent exposure.\nThis suspension, if approved, will trigger the Recall of MPs Act 2015, initiating a recall petition in Bone's constituency which, if signed by 10% of the electorate within six weeks, will lead to a by-election due to the seat being declared vacant.", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes, if Peter Bone MP is suspended from Parliament for any reason before January 1, 2024, as reported by credible sources.\nFine Print\nA suspension for any length of time is sufficient to resolve as Yes.\nRemoval from a party or other duties does not qualify, only being suspended as a MP from the House of Commons is sufficient.\nIf Peter Bone resigns from the House of Commons before he is suspended this question will resolve as No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.743], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.599], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.632], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.619], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.623], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.636], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.648], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.648], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.657], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.646], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.651], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.657], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.632], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.637], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.644], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.634], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.632], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.617], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.621], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.621], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.624], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.614], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.612], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.606], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.598], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.598], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.594], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.589], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.586], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.583], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.586], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.581], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.586], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.584], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.578], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.578], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.576], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.574], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.575], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.575], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.567], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.564], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.559], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.559], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.563], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.556], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.558], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.559], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.569], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.571], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.574], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.581], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.581], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.587], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.596], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.602], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.607], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.608], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.608], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.609], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.612], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.613], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.614], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.619], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.628], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.629], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.635], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.648], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.655], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.661], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.664], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.674], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.686], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.697], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.709], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.71]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67219553?at_bbc_team=editorial&at_link_origin=BBCBreaking&at_link_type=web_link&at_format=link&at_link_id=0D953F4C-735F-11EE-AD5A-2DD6D89D5CC3&at_ptr_name=twitter&at_medium=social&at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_campaign_type=owned\", \"https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/Document/82442/Pdf?subType=Standard\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/24/labour-prepares-to-force-byelection-if-tory-mp-peter-bone-suspended\", \"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12658035/Disgraced-ex-minister-Peter-Bone-accused-charging-taxpayers-hundreds-pounds-partners-travel-stripped-Tory-whip.html\", \"https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/yet-another-by-election-nightmare-looms-for-the-tories-361434/?fbclid=IwAR2Kgw4_JO51_SDKsFgP6m-q5bOrsTYtdBdCwtcLz1K174ZdP1ILSJZ2SX4\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67122669)\"]"}, {"question": "Will Mike Johnson (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19443/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.082], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.076], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.103], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.094], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.082], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.081], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.059], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.043], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.066], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.071], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.087], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.091], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.097], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.136], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.142], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.149], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.153], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.158], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.168], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.172], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.177], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.187], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.208], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.212], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.216], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.222], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.243], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.297], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.357], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.431]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Lee Zeldin (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19458/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Speaker of the House is an office established by Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution. It is the 3rd-highest role in American government, behind the President and the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.\nThe Speaker is chosen by a simple majority of House members who are voting.\nThe magic number is 218 \u2013 kind of.\nA candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.\nBut lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote \"present,\" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.\nThe Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress. On January 6, 2023, Kevin McCarthy was elected speaker of the House after 15 ballots. In order to win support of the fractured Republican caucus, McCarthy offered several concessions, including provisions making it easier to oust the speaker.\nOn September 30th, facing a looming government shutdown, McCarthy \"abandoned party hardliners' insistence that any bill pass the House with only Republican votes\" and passed a stopgap funding bill with \"overwhelming Democratic support.\" The bill averted a shutdown for 45 days, but angered the right wing of the Republican party.\nMcCarthy dismissed concerns that hardline Republicans could try to oust him as leader.\n\"I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,\" McCarthy told reporters. \"And you know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.\"\nOn October 2nd, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, \"the Donald Trump ally and conservative bomb-thrower who has been a nagging thorn in leadership\u2019s side, filed a resolution...to force a vote to overthrow his political nemesis, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker of the House.\"\nGaetz's resolution was successful, with Democrats voting overwhelmingly to remove McCarthy. It is the first time in U.S. history that a vote to vacate the speaker position has succeeded.", "date_begin": "2023-10-17", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate who is elected to fill the Speaker of the House position for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports. All other candidates will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe question will not resolve for the Speaker pro tempore, unless the individual who is named Speaker pro tempore is also elected as the Speaker.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-17\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.082], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.077], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.068], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.062], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.047], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.046], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.042], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.041], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.034], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.019], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.019], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.019], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.033], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.032], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.037], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.036], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.027], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.023], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.02]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19467/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On the 17th of October 2023, multiple agencies reported that the Al Ahli Hospital/Gaza City Hospital was rocked by an explosion. The number of fatalities is not clear. Palestinian officials said as many as 471 people were killed.\nHamas claims that the explosion was caused by an Israeli Defense Force airstrike on the hospital. The IDF disputes this and allege the explosion was caused by rockets fired by Islamic Jihad.", "date_begin": "2023-10-17", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2024.\nThe Israeli Government, the Israeli Defense Force, or a high elected official or civil servant of Israel acting in an official capacity says the explosion was caused by Israeli military action;\nThree of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council publicly attribute the attack to Israel;\nTwo reports have been published by credible sources, each quoting a separate government source from a Five Eyes country which attributes the attack to Israel. To meet the threshold, a given report must rely on a government source or document; independent investigations will not be sufficient for the purposes of this question. The reports must, together, provide at least two statements or documents that independently attribute the explosion to Israel.\nIf there is ambiguity about any of #1-3, a panel of three Metaculus admins will make the final determination by majority decision.\nThe question resolves No if the above does not occur before January 1, 2024. It also resolves No if any group other than Israel claims responsibility for the attack and that claim is validated by credible sources.\nFine Print\nFor #3, the reports may include a document obtained by the media, provided that the veracity of such a document is not subsequently disputed by the applicable government within 3 days of publication.\nMetaculus holds a high standard for credible sources which we will follow in assessing whether the threshold in #3 has been met:\nA \"credible source\" will be taken to be an online or in-print published story from a journalistic source, or information publicly posted on a the website of an organization by that organization making public information pertaining to that organization, or in another source where the preponderance of evidence suggests that the information is correct and that there is no significant controversy surrounding the information or its correctness. It will generally not include unsourced information found in blogs, Facebook or Twitter postings, or websites of individuals.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.048], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.053], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.043], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.046]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13638/poland-and-ukraine-settle-przewod%25C3%25B3w-by-2024/\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-al-shifa-hospital.html\", \"https://twitter.com/muhammadshehad2/status/1720454684031283647\", \"https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1720518481454498069\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/22/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/50704666\", \"https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=576600514&rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS978US978&sxsrf=AM9HkKmg9xQieYTp1HDfkShhZi1w6LxKoA:1698263827364&q=gaza+hospital+dead&tbm=isch&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiWuajh_ZGCAxUYEVkFHY9dA7cQ0pQJegQIDRAB&biw=1440&bih=684&dpr=2\", \"https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/10/21/world/politics/gaza-hospital-strike-focus/\", \"https://archive.ph/HcE2Q#selection-527.0-531.190\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/politics/us-intelligence-assessment-gaza-hospital-blast/index.html\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/18/the-wounded-started-stumbling-towards-us-the-chaos-after-gaza-hospital-blast\", \"https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Data-research-and-tools/US-Fire-Problem/Catastrophic-multiple-death-fires/Deadliest-single-building-or-complex-fires-and-explosions-in-the-US\", \"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/prehospital-and-disaster-medicine/article/abs/ems-response-to-the-oklahoma-city-bombing/95538353A863834D47D49A42ABF8471D\", \"https://twitter.com/HenMazzig/status/1714663225059393680/photo/1\", \"https://twitter.com/HenMazzig/status/1714663225059393680/photo/2\", \"https://twitter.com/HenMazzig/status/1714663225059393680/video/3\", \"https://videopress.com/v/BcRYtXJB\", \"https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/08/12/palestinian-rockets-may-killed-civilians-israel-gaza\", \"https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1714984258358391057?fbclid=IwAR2DtDI3K7Yx_yi3xdvrMkv0vYE5d6-nQNm9r9Mi0Lg0sdV1bHR8DaFGV3Y\", \"https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-hospital-rocket-gaza-e0fa550faa4678f024797b72132452e3\", \"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip/card/israeli-air-force-says-it-has-dropped-6-000-bombs-on-gaza-QK1aSnupiGqytMVO86PU\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/23/gaza-death-toll-exceeds-5000-as-israel-continues-daily-bombardments\", \"https://apnews.com/article/iron-dome-missile-defense-israel-palestinians-rockets-hamas-f57508d0e53945d1071d4582fcdae8d2\", \"https://apnews.com/article/iron-dome-missile-defense-israel-palestinians-rockets-hamas-f57508d0e53945d1071d4582fcdae8d2\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/20/what-have-open-source-videos-revealed-about-the-gaza-hospital-explosion\", \"https://twitter.com/ForensicArchi/status/1715422512350216329\", \"https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1714670301097660526?fbclid=IwAR1hdm_VJp-7gC1JJvr2NafsZIN5Z62TzBdnTBiF1J3yMqo0xfgmHMfpOII\", \"https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1714670301097660526\", \"https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1714984258358391057?fbclid=IwAR2DtDI3K7Yx_yi3xdvrMkv0vYE5d6-nQNm9r9Mi0Lg0sdV1bHR8DaFGV3Y\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeP9vFrTEzI&t=316s\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-intelligence-shows-gaza-militants-behind-hospital-blast/ar-AA1iqDrW?bncnt=BroadcastNews_BreakingNews&ocid=socialshare&FORM=BNC001&cvid=38a2cafec2bc4408bb7338656d6babe3&ei=20\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGG8R8t7cCo\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_burst\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_City_bombing\", \"https://x.com/talhagin/status/1715168901309321366?s=46\", \"https://www.sfu.ca/sonic-studio-webdav/cmns/Handbook%20Tutorial/Sound-Environment.html\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint\", \"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/gaza-hospital-bombing-what-know-experts-video-rcna121136\", \"https://x.com/talhagin/status/1714686150252646642?s=46\", \"https://x.com/MarkWarner/status/1714724709151940753?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1714747172787204535\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67144061\", \"https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2023/10/18/identifying-possible-crater-from-gaza-hospital-blast/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/18/biden-gaza-hospital-israel-other-team?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=social\", \"https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/finland-latvia-estonia-poland-call-for-investigation-after-bombing-of-gaza-hospital/3024759)\", \"https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1714571268484125066?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://x.com/bloombergradio/status/1714580987022053809?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\"]"}, {"question": "Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19492/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel, with reports stating that more than 1,400 Israeli civilians were killed. Following the attack media reports have suggested that an Israeli ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. On October 13, Politico reported::\nIsrael\u2019s ground invasion of Gaza is \u201cimminent,\u201d two Israeli officials said Friday, confirming that the much-anticipated operation will happen in the coming hours or days.\n. . .\nBut officials in Jerusalem and the Israel Defense Forces never confirmed that a ground invasion was in the works, even as Israel called up 300,000 reservists and, Friday, ordered the evacuation of 1.1 million people from northern Gaza.\nThe Israeli officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans, said the evacuation order was issued to save as many Palestinian lives as possible ahead of the ground operation. The short window of time for that evacuation was necessary so that Hamas wouldn\u2019t have much time to prepare, they said.\nHowever, on October 17 Israeli Defense Force Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht told Reuters:\nWe are preparing for the next stages of war. We haven't said what they will be. Everybody's talking about the ground offensive. It might be something different.", "date_begin": "2023-10-19", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 1, 2023, at least two of the internationally recognized media sources listed below publish reports that unequivocally state that a large-scale Israeli ground offensive into Gaza has begun. Operations characterized as raids will generally not qualify.\nBBC News\nThe Economist\nThe New York Times\nThe Wall Street Journal\nFine Print\nTo meet the threshold for a Yes resolution, a report must rely on sourced reporting. Sourced reporting can include government sources quoted on condition of anonymity, but the report must not be an opinion piece. For example:\nThe hypothetical statement \"A high-level official in the US intelligence community stated, on the condition of anonymity, that Israel's ground offensive began on October 25th\" would be sufficient for a Yes resolution.\nThe hypothetical statements \"Israel's much-anticipated ground offensive may begin at any moment\" or \"It appears Israel's ground offensive may have begun\" would not be sufficient for a Yes resolution.\nIt is possible the actual start date of the ground offensive is before November 1, 2023, and that there is evidence available attesting to such a start date, but that the question resolves No because the evidence has not been reported definitively in one of the four listed outlets.\nA raid, which does not qualify, will generally be considered a brief incursion with a specific goal after which troops will withdraw. Metaculus will defer to the characterization of the listed sources. In the event at least two sources state that a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza has begun but also use terminology such as \"raid\", the question will still resolve as Yes. For example, the 2006 Israeli operation in Beit Hanoun would be considered a raid.\nIf there is ambiguity about whether the criteria have been met, a team of three Metaculus admins will make the final determination.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.625], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.667], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.653], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.596], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.621], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.626], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.697], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.678], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.683], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.679], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.674], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.668], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.67], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.666], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.665], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.665], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.661], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.659], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.657], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.647], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.647], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.628], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.622], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.618], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.614], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.605], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.594], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.588], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.588], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.583], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.581], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.571], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.567], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.559], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.552], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.467], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.454], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.456], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.447], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.424], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.419], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.419], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.419], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.416], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.411], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.409], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.408], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.408], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.403], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.399], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.388], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.387], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.44], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.468], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.513], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.532], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.544], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.553], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.563], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.566], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.567], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.574], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.593], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.612], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.625], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.635], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.639], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.641], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.641], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.641], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.648], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.657], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.655], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.647], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.648], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.651], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.661], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.66], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.665], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.664], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.663], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.66], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.659], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.658]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-invasion-secrecy.html\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67258466?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6540dac5364b3f1612ec7582%26Hamas%20claims%20to%20have%20killed%20Israeli%20soldier%20in%20Gaza%262023-10-31T11%3A47%3A41.466Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:92d320b6-7e80-458d-a2ba-28ad6a57bed2&pinned_post_asset_id=6540dac5364b3f1612ec7582&pinned_post_type=share\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/briefing/israeli-forces-move-deeper-into-gaza.html\", \"https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-makes-major-advance-toward-gaza-city-2339a2b6?mod=mhp\", \"https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-ground-operation-pushes-deeper-into-gaza-a22739e6\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67248454\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/international/\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-invasion-secrecy.html\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67258466\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/f91e6d02-cc71-4f0a-8f4d-abf335dd91fd\", \"https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-makes-major-advance-toward-gaza-city-2339a2b6?mod=mhp\", \"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3d/October_2023_Gaza%E2%88%92Israel_conflict.svg\", \"https://archive.ph/qNliV#selection-609.0-609.222\", \"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/10/29/israel-faces-agonising-choices-in-the-battle-for-gaza\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/briefing/israel-gaza-ukraine.html?searchResultPosition=6\", \"https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-makes-major-advance-toward-gaza-city-2339a2b6\", \"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/10/29/israel-faces-agonising-choices-in-the-battle-for-gaza\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/29/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news\", \"https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-ground-operation-pushes-deeper-into-gaza-a22739e6\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoFiyMnf5JU\", \"https://www.google.com/search?q=is+it+likley+that+Iseral+launches+a+full+scale+invation+of+Gasa&oq=is+it+likley+that+Iseral+launches+a+full+scale+invation+of+Gasa&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjM2NjI1ajFqMTWoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67246761\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/28/world/israel-gaza-news-hamas-war)\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-28/israel-s-netanyahu-says-second-stage-of-hamas-war-has-begun?utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=bloomberguk&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-bloomberguk\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/27/israel-hamas-ground-invasion-gaza\", \"https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1718029223086973080\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-civilian-deaths-un-says-possible-war-crimes/\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1717998934432326131\", \"https://twitter.com/28MohamedAhmed/status/1717979265130512459\", \"https://twitter.com/AymanHsafadi/status/1717974727631761528\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67223217?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=653bf306364b3f1612ec6c10%26Israeli%20military%20tells%20Gaza%20City%20residents%20to%20move%20south%262023-10-27T17%3A27%3A34.427Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:de2bdc6c-42cc-40ac-a171-645322d03a64&pinned_post_asset_id=653bf306364b3f1612ec6c10&pinned_post_type=share\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-to-delay-gaza-invasion-to-allow-us-to-bolster-air-defenses-in-region/\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1717231654668808485\", \"https://manifold.markets/connorwilliams97/when-will-the-fullscale-israeli-gro\"]"}, {"question": "Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19525/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The 2023 Liberian election has led to a closely contested race between the incumbent President George Weah and opposition leader Joseph Boakai. The first round of the election, held on 10th October 2023, did not result in a clear winner as neither candidate secured the more than 50% of the votes required to avoid a runoff, with 99.93% of votes counted.\nGeorge Weah, the incumbent president, running with Jewel Taylor for the Coalition for Democratic Change, secured 803,674 votes (43.84%) in the 2023 Liberian general election's first round. Joseph Boakai, former vice president, alongside running mate Jeremiah Koung from the Unity Party, garnered 796,313 votes (43.44%). As the FT outlines:\nWeah had positioned himself as the plucky outsider who could shake things up in contrast to Boakai, an establishment figure, who had been vice-president for more than a decade and was a government minister in the 1980s.\nBoakai is running on an anti-Weah platform and campaigning to revive the economy by investing in infrastructure and agriculture projects. But the 78-year-old is dogged by questions over his health and has been dubbed \u201cSleepy Joe\u201d after falling asleep at events during his time as vice-president.\nLiberia is thus headed for a run-off election. This election has to be held within 15 days of finalising the vote count for the first election, making November 7 a likely date for the election.\nThe FT reports:\nA fresh run-off between the two men would mark a repeat of the 2017 elections. That time, Weah won the second round with 61.54 per cent of the vote.\nHowever, analysts believe the results of this year\u2019s are likely to be closer. \u201cThere\u2019s an opportunity for both candidates to win,\u201d said Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at UK think-tank Chatham House.", "date_begin": "2023-10-22", "date_close": "2023-11-05", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if George Weah is elected as president of Liberia in 2023 according to statements from the National Elections Commission (NEC).\nFine Print\nThe question may resolve early based on media calls/reports, but final resolution will be determined according to official results released by the NEC, and the question may be re-resolved if the official results differ from the initial calls.\nIf the expected run-off election has to be re-run in 2024 or the election is otherwise delayed into 2024, this question will be annulled. The question will also be annulled if the NEC does not officially declare a winner before 2024.\nIf George Weah drops out or does not participate in the run-off election for whatever reason, but the election happens in 2023 and/or a new president is announced by the NEC, this question resolves as No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-25\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.607], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.597], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.582], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.582], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.608], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.609], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.608], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.601], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.601], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.608], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.606], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.602], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.604], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.587], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.589], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.594], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.594], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.596], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.596], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.596], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.597], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.597], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.596], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.593], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.593], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.596], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.597], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.597], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.597], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.594], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.593], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.594], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.591], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.592], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.588], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.588], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.589], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.589], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.588], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.596], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.599], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.596], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.596], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.596], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.593], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.593], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.593], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.592], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.592], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.593], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.594], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.594], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.597], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.597], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.597], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.599]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/liberia-election-results-joseph-boakai-182009231.html\", \"https://results.necliberia.org/\", \"https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1725609617785295027\", \"https://results.necliberia.org/\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/31/liberia-president-george-weah-to-seek-second-term-in-october-poll\", \"https://database.earth/population/liberia/median-age\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy?useskin=vector#World_Bank_Group_(2021)\"]"}, {"question": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19590/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "According to an article published by the BBC on October 24, 2023:\nThe air quality in India's capital Delhi has fallen to poor levels and is expected to deteriorate further in the coming days, officials have said.\n. . .\nDelhi is one of the world's most polluted cities through the year.\nBut its air turns especially toxic in winter due to various factors, including burning of crop remains by farmers, low wind speeds and bursting of firecrackers during festivals.\n. . .\nEnvironment Minister Gopal Rai said that the second phase of a Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) has been implemented to combat the effect of increased pollution.\nAs part of the strategy, all public transport services, including the Delhi metro and electric bus services, have been instructed to increase their frequency to curb vehicle emissions in the city.\nAn overview of the GRAP is available here.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2023-11-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the air quality index (AQI) in the Indian city of New Delhi reaches a level of \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse for at least four of the seven days from October 29 to November 4, inclusive, according to AirNow.\nFine Print\nThe question will resolve according to the AQI values listed in the \"historical\" tab of the AirNow page for New Delhi. A day will be considered to have reached \"Very Unhealthy\" if at least one hour on that date is listed in the historical data as \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse (AQI value of 201 or higher).\nThe question will resolve according to the historical data shown on or after November 6, 2023, when first accessed by Metaculus.\nThe YTD values will take precedence over those shown in the MTD values in the event that they differ, and both files may be used to resolve the question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-27\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.722], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.657], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.654], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.673], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.683], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.704], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.699], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.698], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.698], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.706], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.717], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.741], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.751], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.759], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.755], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.755], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.755], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.757], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.758], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.757], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.757], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.756], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.756], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.756], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.754], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.771], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.771], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.773], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.772], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.774], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.776], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.777], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.782], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.782], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.783], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.783], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.786], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.771], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.792], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.797], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.799], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.799], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.804], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.806], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.829], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.866], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.867], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.873], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.888], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.909], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.912], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.919], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.925], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.926], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.928], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.928], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.928], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.931], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.933], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.937], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.937], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.938], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.939], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.941], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.941], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.941], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.942], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.943], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.948], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.949], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.949], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.951], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.948], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.948], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.946], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.946], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.947], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.948], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.951]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi\", \"https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/delhi-air-pollution-aqi-500-latest-b2441552.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19592/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Canada and India have been in an ongoing dispute following Canada's public allegation in September of 2023 that India was responsible for the killing of a Canadian citizen. Hardeep Singh Nijjar was a leader in the movement for an independent Sikh state to be established in the Punjab region of India. He was killed in Canada on June 18, 2023.\nCanada's statement led to escalating diplomatic tensions between the two countries, including India's expulsion of a top Canadian diplomat and a temporary suspension of Indian visas to Canadian nationals in the days after the accusation, as well as an ultimatum issued October 3 by India for Canada to remove 41 of its diplomats from India, which Canada complied with by recalling the diplomats on October 19.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 25, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that India has requested that at least one additional Canadian diplomat be recalled.\nFine Print\nThe diplomat need not actually be withdrawn or recalled from India, only a statement from India requesting that Canada recall one or more of its diplomats or expelling one or more Canadian diplomats is required.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-27\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.281], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.307], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.307], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.307], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.267], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.254], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.251], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.248], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.258], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.253], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.253], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.253], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.248], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.206], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.194], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.193], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.194], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.191], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.187], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.174], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.173], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.159], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.156], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.161], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.146], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.148], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.146], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.153], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.152], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.143], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.138], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.137], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.136], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.136], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.134], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.127], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.123], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.122], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.093], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.094], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.104], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.104], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.093], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.094], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.064], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.064], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.061], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.069]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/india-needs-take-canadas-allegations-seriously-trudeau-says-after-us-case-2023-11-29/?taid=6567bb75bc772c00013cfa00&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-thwarts-plot-kill-sikh-separatist-issues-warning-india-ft-2023-11-22/?taid=655e2ef6b0bd0500014dc5f0&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter\"]"}, {"question": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19593/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Mike Johnson has been elected the Speaker of the House of Representatives, securing 220 votes, amid a tumultuous period marked by intra-Republican discord. He is the fourth Republican to be nominated for the role since Kevin McCarthy's removal on October 3. Johnson's victory symbolizes a win for the conservative, Trump-aligned faction within the Republican Party. In his address, he outlined border security, inflation, and Middle East conflict as key priorities and pledged his first bill in support of Israel. The election also underlines looming challenges including an impending November 17 deadline to agree on government funding to avoid a shutdown. Johnson, known for his conservative stances on various policy issues, has raised concerns among some Democrats, especially with respect to his challenging the 2020 election results, underlining the political divisions and challenges ahead in finding bipartisan solutions.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Mike Johnson remains the Speaker of the US House of Representatives continuously until the end of 2023. This question will resolve as No if Mike Johnson ceases to be Speaker of the House for any reason (including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election loss, loss of majority party status, vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity) in 2023. Resolution will be determined according to reporting from credible sources.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.84], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.813], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.813], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.819], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.827], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.842], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.845], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.849], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.84], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.839], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.839], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.839], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.839], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.841], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.841], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.842], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.844], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.845], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.847], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.848], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.848], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.854], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.866], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.871], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.876], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.876], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.883], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.882], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.886], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.888], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.899], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.907], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.908], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.911], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.911], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.914], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.917], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.917], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.916], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.913], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.913], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.914], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.914], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.933], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.933], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.933], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.934], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.937], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.937], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.939], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.939], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.941], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.939], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.934], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.933], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.936], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.938], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.936], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.939], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.939], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.939], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.943], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.944], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.941], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.941], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.942], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.942], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.943], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.943], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.943], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.944], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.943], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.943], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.945], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.946], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.946], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.946], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.947], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.946], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.948]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.newsweek.com/will-republicans-oust-mike-johnson-speaker-over-federal-shutdown-bill-1843779\", \"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-bill-pass-government-shutdown-speaker-mike-johnson-rcna125008\", \"https://www.house.gov/leadership\", \"https://web.archive.org/web/20231021145010/https://www.house.gov/leadership\"]"}, {"question": "Will Sevilla win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19596/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.021], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.122], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.109], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.099], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.044]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Manchester United win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19598/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.041], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.112], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.099], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.149], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.113], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.106], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.104], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.026], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.026], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.027], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.024], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.024], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.023], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.019]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Newcastle United win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19599/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.124], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.124], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.128], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.114], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.041], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.029], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.029], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.029], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.031], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.021], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.021], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.018], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.017]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will AC Milan win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19606/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.114], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.114], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.127], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.109], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.101], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.063], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.063], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.063], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.043], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.059], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.059]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Union Berlin win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19610/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.067], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.041]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Lens win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19612/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.009], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.067], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.044]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Benfica win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19613/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.018], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.044]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Feyenoord win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19615/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.047]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will RB Salzburg win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19616/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.098], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.098], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.044]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Celtic win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19617/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.032]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Galatasaray win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19618/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.067], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.041], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.039], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.03]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Braga win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19621/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.009], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.041], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.021], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.021], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.021]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Young Boys win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19623/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.034]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Crvena Zvezda win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19624/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.044]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19625/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.009], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.019], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.019], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.019], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.012], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.009]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Antwerp win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19626/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The UEFA Champions League (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "date_begin": "2023-10-26", "date_close": "2024-06-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to UEFA. All other teams resolve \"No\".", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.104], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.06]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19700/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "An initial public offering (IPO) is the process by which a privately-held company goes public by offering a portion of its shares to public investors for the first time. So far in 2023, five Russian companies have IPO-ed on the MICEX trading floor according to PREQVECA.ru:\nIPO / SPO Name Industry Trading Floor Placement Volume (mln. USD) End of Placement\nHenderson Retail and Consumer Sector, Textiles and Clothing MICEX Not Provided 02.11.2023\nAstra Linux Technologies, Telecommunications and Media MICEX 36 13.10.2023\nSmartTechGroup Financial Services MICEX 11 03.07.2023\nGenetico Biotechnologies and Life Sciences, Healthcare MICEX 2 25.04.2023\nKaluga's distillery Kristall Food processing MICEX 31.12.2023", "date_begin": "2023-10-29", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if there is at least one additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023, based on data according to PREQVECA.ru. As of November 1, 2023, there have been five Russian IPOs in 2023, so this question asks whether there will be six or more in 2023.\nThe search criteria are:\nPlacement type: IPO\nTrading floor: MICEX\nCountry of operation: Russia\nEnd of Placement:\nfrom: January 1, 2023\nto: December 31, 2023\nAll other: Leave empty\nFor an IPO to count for this question, it has to have an \u2018End of placement\u2019 date between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023, inclusive. If 6 or more companies meet this criterion, this question resolves as Yes.\nFine Print\nPlacement volume does not impact resolution of this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.532], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.582], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.534], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.512], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.489], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.537], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.526], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.526], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.504], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.518], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.508], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.498], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.503], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.503], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.499], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.499], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.502], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.506], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.511], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.511], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.512], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.539], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.541], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.541], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.546], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.547], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.554], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.566], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.576], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.583], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.583], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.588], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.589], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.592], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.594], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.593], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.591], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.592], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.599], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.598], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.598], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.596], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.598], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.596], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.596], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.598], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.597], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.597], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.598], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.611], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.612], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.612], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.607], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.607], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.606], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.622], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.627], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.638], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.649], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.658], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.702], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.712], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.718], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.726], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.729], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.736], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.739], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.739], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.741], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.744], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.764], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.769], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.769], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.769], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.769], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.768], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.764], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.76], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.759], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.757], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.762], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.762], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.758], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.76], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.749], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.76], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.76], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.756], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.749], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.755]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"http://preqveca.ru/en/placements/?sf%5Bipo_t%5D=&sf%5Bipo%5D=0&sf%5Bstatus%5D=0&sf%5Bcountr%5D=2&sf%5Bspec%5D=0&sf%5Blisting%5D=9&sf%5Bpsf%5D=&sf%5Bpst%5D=&sf%5Bpt%5D=1&sf%5Bind%5D=0&sf%5Bpef%5D=01.01.2023&sf%5Bpet%5D=31.12.2023#search_r\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/russian-gold-miner-uzhuralzoloto-plans-moscow-ipo-this-year-three-sources-2023-10-16/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19764/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "SpaceX's first integrated flight took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad suffered significant damage and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.\nIn response, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) conducted a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review. The mishap investigation ended on September 8, requiring 63 corrective actions, and the safety investigation concluded on October 31. However, the environmental review is still pending. According to space.com, the FAA stated:\nThe FAA is continuing to work on the environmental review. As part of its environmental review, the FAA is consulting with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) on an updated Biological Assessment under the Endangered Species Act. The FAA and the USFWS must complete this consultation before the environmental review portion of the license evaluation is completed.", "date_begin": "2023-11-01", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, the second Starship integrated flight test occurs and Starship leaves the launchpad intact and under its own power.\nFine Print\nAn integrated flight test requires the Starship spacecraft to be stacked on top of the Super Heavy booster with both launched together.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-02\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.508], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.485], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.451], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.435], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.425], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.492], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.483], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.497], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.526], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.517], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.521], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.517], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.534], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.533], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.534], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.534], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.539], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.534], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.548], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.548], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.559], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.572], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.574], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.587], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.599], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.611], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.616], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.616], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.617], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.629], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.629], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.634], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.641], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.643], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.651], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.666], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.668], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.669], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.692], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.698], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.698], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.701], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.705], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.705], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.705], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.705], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.708], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.707], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.707], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.707], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.707], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.708], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.724], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.724], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.724], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.723], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.723], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.738], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.744], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.746], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.747], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.762], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.762], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.762], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.772], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.778], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.782], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.797], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.804], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.808], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.811], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.824], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.826], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.828], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.83], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.833], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.839], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.841], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.843], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.843], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.845], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.845]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/18/spacex-starship-second-rocket-launch.html\", \"https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1725863877680775229\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOI35G7cP7o\", \"https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1724899815686029329\", \"https://twitter.com/VisitBocaChica/status/1724897946217373973\", \"https://twitter.com/BCCarCounters/status/1724821868471808301\", \"https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1724271004044644800\", \"https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1723158118706839819\", \"https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/11/04/spacex-poised-for-mid-november-of-second-starship-test-launch/>\", \"https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-second-launch-possible-october-2023\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdGyRyXgcCU\"]"}, {"question": "Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19765/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Donald Trump is facing four indictments (in New York, Florida, Washington DC, and Georgia) as well as a civil case in New York.\nIn the New York civil case, Trump was fined twice, first for $5,000 on October 20 and then again for $10,000 on October 25, for violating a gag order against commenting publicly about Judge Arthur Engoron's staff.\nTrump was also subject to a gag order imposed in the DC case by Judge Tanya Chutkan on October 16th against commenting about court staff, prosecutors, or witnesses. That gag order was lifted on October 20th after Trump appealed, but was reinstated on October 29th.\nFollowing the reinstatement, Ty Cobb, former White House lawyer during Trump's presidency, said:\nWell, the New York judge fined him $10,000. That\u2019s in a civil case. That\u2019s not as consequential as Judge Chutkan\u2019s case. . . I think she\u2019ll come in with a much heavier penalty, and ultimately, I think he\u2019ll spend a night or a weekend in jail.", "date_begin": "2023-11-01", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Donald Trump has been confined to a jail or prison cell for at least one hour as a result of court proceedings.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-02\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.147], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.114], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.113], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.112], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.104], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.107], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.107], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.107], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.084], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.066], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.061], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.058], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.057], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.055], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.054], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.051]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1730325566958563622\"]"}, {"question": "Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19898/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "At the beginning of 2023 BTC traded at between $16,000 and $17,000 in the wake of the FTX collapse in late 2022 and a general crypto market downturn in 2022. Since then, BTC has surged to over $37,000, levels that had not been seen since early 2022. Whether or not BTC will reach the $40,000 threshold in 2023 has been a topic of recent discussion.", "date_begin": "2023-11-13", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of $40,000 or more before January 1, 2024. Whether or not the price is at or above $40,000 at the end of the year does not matter. This question resolves solely on the basis of whether BTC reaches or exceeds the $40,000 threshold. The primary resolution source is CoinMarketCap. If the resolution source is unavailable, other comparable sources may be used. However, if sources disagree, CoinMarketCap is the primary source.\nFine Print\nIn the case of uncertainty regarding whether the threshold has been met on CoinMarketCap, we will use the five minute increments available on the one day price view on the chart. Note that the most recent few minutes may use a smaller time increment, however, to resolve as Yes the threshold must be met or exceeded at the five minute or larger time increment when the resolution source is accessed at a later time by Metaculus.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-15\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.503], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.545], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.545], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.562], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.535], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.542], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.538], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.528], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.527], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.526], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.529], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.536], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.531], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.524], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.532], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.529], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.529], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.527], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.528], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.543], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.541], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.551], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.567], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.571], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.581], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.581], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.598], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.599], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.603], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.589], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.586], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.587], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.585], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.588], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.573], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.574], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.573], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.572], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.567], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.566], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.566], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.567], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.572], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.569], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.572], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.568], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.569], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.568], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.567], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.568], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.569], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.569], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.569], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.565], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.565], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.556], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.557], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.554], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.555], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.557], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.558], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.56], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.562], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.562], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.573], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.572], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.574], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.574], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.574], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.574], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.576], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.575], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.572], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.573], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.576], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.577], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.578], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.593], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.607], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.612], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.612], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.613], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.647], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.662], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.689], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.708], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.756], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.784]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14265/bitcoin-value-over-30000-on-january-1-2024/#comment-139496\", \"https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/\", \"https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdwa/pr/binance-and-ceo-plead-guilty-federal-charges-4b-resolution\"]"}, {"question": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19909/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "From the onset of the Gaza-Israel conflict, many pro-Israeli nations have shown their support for Israel via high profile visits including, US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.\nUkraine is another nation which is seen as pro-Israeli, however, in past and present times, the relationship between both nations has appeared tentative. Israel still maintains friendly relations with Russia, and Israel has yet to outright condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Israel has also, until recently, refused to send military aid to Ukraine which is in stark contrast to many of Israel's western allies.\nVolodymyr Zelenskyy initially indicated his intention to visit Israel in a show of support, however this was initially shot-down by Netanyahu, stating that the \"time is not right\".\nThis decision was short-lived, as it was recently reported that Zelenskyy's trip to Israel was in advanced stages of planning. Said reporting, however, was leaked (presumably by members of Netenyahu's government), and the trip was promptly cancelled:\nAccording to the diplomat, the Ukrainian president \"wanted the trip to be public when he stepped on Israeli soil.\" \"He's very disappointed,\" he added.", "date_begin": "2023-11-13", "date_close": "2023-12-04", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy steps foot in Israel, for any reason, before 23:59 IST, December 31, 2023.\nOtherwise, it will resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-15\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.345], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.356], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.379], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.402], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.394], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.392], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.399], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.399], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.371], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.383], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.386], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.379], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.38], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.381], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.374], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.372], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.372], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.366], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.362], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.356], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.349], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.344], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.326], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.308], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.291], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.303], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.272], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.251], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.242], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.243], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.244], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.237], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.232], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.232], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.225], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.222], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.221], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.222], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.219], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.219], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.218], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.217], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.217], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.213], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.212], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.211], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.207], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.204], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.194], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.189], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.178], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.177], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.176], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.174], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.169], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.163], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.162], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.157], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.157], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.157], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.157], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.158], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.158], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.157], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.156], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.154], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.151], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.151]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Volodymyr_Zelenskyy#2023\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-04/putin-to-visit-saudi-arabia-uae-in-rare-trip-abroad?leadSource=uverify%20wall\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/11/zelensky-israel-hamas-war-gaza-visit-netanyahu\", \"https://apnews.com/article/germany-ukraine-aid-military-9023a24fd21689eb1139f29818fbc75b\", \"https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/17/7429244/index.amp\"]"}, {"question": "Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19919/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "New Delhi, the capital of India, has been experiencing very poor air quality. According to data from AirNow, the majority of the month of November has been at an air quality index (AQI) level of \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse, and nearly half of the month has been at levels of \"Hazardous\".\nAccording to a November 10th Nature article:\nAs the Hindu festival of Diwali kicks off on 10 November, the Indian capital of Delhi, already blanketed in choking smog, is bracing for pollution to worsen. Over the past week, children struggling to breath the acrid air have flooded hospital emergency departments, and schools have been forced to close. . .\n\u201cEvery year it is a similar story,\u201d says Vinayak Sinha, an atmospheric chemist at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali.\nBut although Delhi\u2019s air is attracting attention now, scientists say that the spike is actually typical for this time of year. The post-monsoon season, which lasts from October to December, delivers an annual pollution bomb to Delhi, a megacity of more than 30 million people. Other cities in India are also plagued by poor air quality at this time of year.\nSinha says that atmospheric conditions after the monsoon exacerbate pollution. Rainfall that washes pollutants out of the air during the monsoon ceases. As temperatures fall, the upper boundary of the troposphere \u2014 the lowest layer of atmosphere \u2014 drops in altitude and the troposphere shrinks. That causes the soup of pollutants in the troposphere to become more concentrated, says Sinha. \u201cYou have a smaller container now into which your air emissions are being stored,\u201d he says.\nEven so, current conditions came as something of a surprise, says Karthik Ganesan, a policy researcher at the Council on Energy Environment and Water in New Delhi. That\u2019s because the amount of crop waste burnt in the neighbouring Punjab region was lower than usual this year, causing some people to expect a milder increase in pollution.\nBut as it turned out, air quality was as poor as ever because of changing meteorological conditions, including drops in wind speed on certain days. When wind speed falls, the air stagnates, trapping local emissions and leading to a pollution spike, says Ganesan.\nNew Delhi is reportedly considering new approaches to improve the air quality, such as cloud seeding. According to Wired:\nIndia\u2019s capital, New Delhi, is preparing a new weapon in the fight against deadly air pollution: cloud seeding. The experiment, which could take place as early as next week, would introduce chemicals like silver iodide into a cloudy sky to create rain and, it\u2019s hoped, wash away the fine particulate matter hovering over one of the world\u2019s largest cities.\nThe need is desperate. Delhi has already tried traffic restriction measures, multimillion-dollar air filtration towers, and the use of fleets of water-spraying trucks to dissolve the particulate matter in the air\u2014but to no avail.\n. . .\nNow, Delhi officials are seeking permission from federal agencies in India to try cloud seeding. The technique involves flying an aircraft to spray clouds with salts like silver or potassium iodide or solid carbon dioxide, also known as dry ice, to induce precipitation. The chemical molecules attach to moisture already in the clouds to form bigger droplets that then fall as rain. China has used artificial rain to tackle air pollution in the past\u2014but for cloud seeding to work properly, you need significant cloud cover with reasonable moisture content, which Delhi generally lacks during the winter. If weather conditions are favorable, scientists leading the project at the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur plan to carry out cloud seeding around November 20.", "date_begin": "2023-11-14", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after November 14, 2023, and before December 1, 2023, credible sources report that Delhi has performed cloud seeding.\nFine Print\nThe cloud seeding need not successfully produce rain or cut down on the smog. This question only asks whether cloud seeding will be performed.\nThe cloud seeding need not occur directly over the Delhi region, so long as reports indicate that it was carried out with approval from the Delhi regional or local government.\nThere is no requirement on the scope or scale of the cloud seeding, so long as credible sources report that cloud seeding has been performed.\nMetaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reporting is in doubt.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-15\", 0.35], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.555], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.538], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.521], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.517], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.522], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.531], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.531], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.519], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.544], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.563], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.577], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.576], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.583], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.583], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.576], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.575], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.579], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.578], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.569], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.568], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.568], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.563], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.568], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.565], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.572], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.564], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.568], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.567], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.558], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.553], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.548], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.511], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.51], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.512], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.518], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.518], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.502], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.489], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.462], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.433], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.423], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.416], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.407], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.406], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.399], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.391], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.388], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.38], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.372], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.371], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.367], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.362], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.353], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.343], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.329], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.326], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.325], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.32], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.316], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.315], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.314], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.298], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.296], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.291], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.293], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.277], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.276], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.274], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.267], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.263], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.259], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.232], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.226], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.214], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.213], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.198], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.193], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.189], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.18], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.172], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.167], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.163], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.154], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.147], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.138], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.136], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.127], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.125]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/mumbai-aqi-bmc-invites-eoi-for-cloud-seeding/articleshow/105653441.cms\", \"https://phys.org/news/2023-11-india-cloud-seeding-deadly-smog.html\", \"https://www.firstpost.com/india/16-flights-diverted-as-bad-weather-hits-delhi-airport-13437402.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social\", \"https://www.wired.com/story/delhi-smog-air-pollution-cloud-seeding/\", \"https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/clouds-over-delhi-govt-plan-to-induce-rain-101700416986444.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-scientists-hope-cloud-seeding-can-clean-delhis-toxic-air-2023-11-09/\", \"https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/environment/artificial-rain-cloud-seeding-in-delhi-wont-work-as-ineffective-as-the-smog-tower-say-experts-11764291.html\", \"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/get-nods-for-cloud-seeding-rai-to-cs/articleshow/105103810.cms\"]"}, {"question": "Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19960/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "George Santos, a U.S. Representative, faces scrutiny over fabrications in his background and potential legal issues. On the 16th of November, the House Ethics committee released a report into various aspects of Santos' conduct. Santos has not resigned, but has announced he will not seek reelection at the end of his term, at the end of the current session. Expulsion from the House requires a two-thirds majority vote, a high threshold historically rarely met. Only five members have been expelled in the House's history, typically for severe misconduct like treason or bribery.", "date_begin": "2023-11-16", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the House of Representatives expels Representative George Santos from the House of Representatives before January 1, 2024.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-16\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.66], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.738], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.542], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.548], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.538], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.503], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.488], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.454], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.449], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.413], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.419], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.407], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.39], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.383], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.399], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.377], [\"2023-11-17\", 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"[\"https://apnews.com/article/george-santos-expulsion-vote-ethics-investigation-fd0f1524065883c6b2fe3e6f9afd84db\", \"https://apnews.com/article/george-santos-expulsion-vote-ethics-investigation-fd0f1524065883c6b2fe3e6f9afd84db\", \"https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1730375292235968776\", \"https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1730214857968935271\", \"https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1729670939648950595\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/george-santos-expulsion-congress-robert-garcia-resolution/\", \"https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1729536353874972700\", \"https://apnews.com/article/george-santos-house-ethics-committee-bf33ec0df1997467617f5d19531a4b26?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter\", \"https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24170765-providing-for-the-expulsion-of-representative-george-santos-from-the-united-states-house-of-representatives-rep-michael-guest-11172023\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/11/17/house-ethics-chair-expel-george-santos-congress?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial\", \"https://twitter.com/MrSantosNY/status/1725346085332205656\", \"https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1725247463202660385\"]"}, {"question": "Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19969/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "See also: How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?\nBetween January 2022 and July 2023, the US has provided Ukraine with $46.6 billion in military aid, $3.9 billion in humanitarian aid and $26.4 billion in financial aid, totaling roughly $77 billion, according to a recent analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)\nDespite previous bipartisan support on September 30, 2023 the US Congress passed a bill that didn't include new foreign aid for Ukraine.", "date_begin": "2023-11-16", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as Yes if at any point in time between November 16, 2023 and January 1, 2024 credible sources report that the US Congress has approved an additional package of foreign aid for Ukraine. The foreign aid must be included in a bill (or bills) sent to President Biden for signature by the end of the day on December 31, 2023.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-28\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.717], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.575], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.503], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.506], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.554], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.534], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.524], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.554], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.554], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.558], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.558], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.516], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.516], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.493], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.496], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.496], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.499], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.472], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.434], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.413], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.413], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.397], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.392], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.387], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.388], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.367], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.326], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.324], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.318], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.309], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.309], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.329], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.336], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.338], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.324], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.314], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.293], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.293], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.307], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.302], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.316], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.323], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.317], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.307], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.304], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.303], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.293], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.284], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.261], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.254], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.253], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.24], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.24], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.233], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.229], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.219], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.216], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.211], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.207], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.201], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.197], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.191], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.186], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.178], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.183], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.178], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.176], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.192], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.184], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.18], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.176], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.177], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.177], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.161], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.158], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.156], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.157], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.161], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.157], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.154], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.148], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.151], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.153], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.151], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.149], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.158]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://x.com/PunchbowlNews/status/1737442725312729171?s=20\", \"https://www.congress.gov/amendment/118th-congress/senate-amendment/1371/text\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/congress-passes-886-billion-defense-policy-bill-biden-sign-into-law-2023-12-14/\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/13/politics/ndaa-defense-bill-what-is/index.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-plans-one-more-ukraine-aid-package-then-up-congress-2023-12-19/#:~:text=Senate%20Republicans%20earlier%20this%20month,at%20the%20U.S.%2DMexico%20border.\", \"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670\", \"https://whcuradio.com/news/030030-how-the-us-keeps-funding-ukraines-military-even-as-it-says-its-out-of-money/\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/13/politics/ndaa-defense-bill-what-is/index.html\", \"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040\", \"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/5692\", \"https://twitter.com/ruslanbes/status/1735381848497283258\", \"https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1735372252986646698\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/majority-us-senate-backs-mammoth-defense-policy-bill-voting-continues-2023-12-14/\", \"https://polymarket.com/event/us-congress-approve-more-ukraine-aid-in-2023\", \"https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1734991437962338570\", \"https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1734661279262888242\", \"https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-congress-aid-military-russia-002fde812843fc1fc0e969b653ce83a8\", \"https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4341897-ukraine-aid-senate-border-talks/\", \"https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/11/27/speaker-johnson-confident-israel-and-ukraine-aid-passes-before-2024-but-hard-right-has-demands/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19997/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is RESP-NET, which it describes as follows:\nThe Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as COVID-NET, RSV-NET, and FluSurv-NET, respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at this link.\nIn its Respiratory Disease Season Outlook for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The RESP-NET figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, the sum of the following rates for the three respiratory illnesses:\nCOVID-19: 9.3\nFlu: 8.7\nRSV: 4.2", "date_begin": "2023-11-17", "date_close": "2024-05-25", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Healthcare & Biology", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if all of COVID, influenza, and RSV show a hospitalization rate of 3.0 or higher in the same week for at least one week in the 2023-24 season, according to the CDC's RESP-NET. The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024.\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.\nFine Print\nThe following filters will be selected:\nChart Selection: \"Season\"\nView: \"Weekly Rates\"\nSeason: \"2023-24\"\nPathogen: \"All\"", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-02\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.454], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.438], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.492], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.454], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.414], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.387], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.387], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.417], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.418], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.417], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.383], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.377], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.393], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.368], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.363], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.334], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.329], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.306], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.294], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.273], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.266], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.253], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.263], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.252], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.225], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.249], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.249], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.278], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.274], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.283], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.294], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.273], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.272], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.264], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.258], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.258], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.279], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.275], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.272], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.291], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.286], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.286], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.282], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.264], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.279], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.282], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.264], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.269], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.272], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.297], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.302], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.312], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.331], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.341], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.397], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.426], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.424], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.401], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.389], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.407], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.433], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.434], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.434], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.443], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.437], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.439], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.476], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.514], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.563], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.565], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.565], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.589], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.602], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.606], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.607], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.636], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.639], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.651], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.651], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.695], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.681], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.681]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://web.archive.org/web/20231209013345/https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/nrevss/images/trend_images/RSV14Num_Nat.htm\", \"https://web.archive.org/web/20231230194356/https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/nrevss/images/trend_images/RSV14Num_Nat.htm\", \"https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18951/flu-hospitalizations-for-ca-202324/#comment-141901\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19961/peak-respiratory-timing-2023-2024/#comment-142050\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20334/respiratory-tripledemic-peaks-in-2023-24/#comment-141417\", \"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RB0IIzpUHgN-HFfjrCDdbDpcIodaQzRvrDzEmpcfWAU/edit#gid=1414380059\", \"https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data-research/dashboard/illness-severity.html\", \"https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2023/han00503.asp\", \"https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19954/peak-respiratory-magnitudes-2023-2024/#comment-140697\", \"https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/flu-southern-hemisphere.html\", \"https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/tripledemic-flu-rsv-and-covid-19\", \"https://www.news-medical.net/news/20230112/The-2022-US-RSV-surge-consisted-of-a-variety-of-pre-existing-viruses.aspx\", \"https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/nrevss/images/trend_images/RSV14Num_Nat.htm\"]"}, {"question": "Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19998/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI.\nIn a statement, OpenAI's board said:\nMr. Altman\u2019s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\nIn a tweet the same day, Altman said he loved his time at OpenAI.", "date_begin": "2023-11-17", "date_close": "2025-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if Sam Altman is announced as OpenAI's CEO and returns to the position before January 1, 2026.\nFine Print\nIf an announcement occurs before January 1, 2026, but Altman does not assume the role until after that date, the question resolves No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.123], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.164], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.229], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.198], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.193], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.198], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.198], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.283], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.38], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.422], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.471], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.543], 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\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/altman-openai-board-open-talks-to-negotiate-his-possible-return)\", \"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1727019242426646869\", \"https://metaculusplay.herokuapp.com/help/scores-faq/#baseline-score\", \"https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/20/23969586/sam-altman-plotting-return-open-ai-microsoft\", \"https://twitter.com/E0M/status/1726743918023496140\", \"https://twitter.com/lilianweng/status/1726634736943280270\", \"https://twitter.com/karaswisher/status/1726599700961521762\", \"https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1726590052392956028\", \"https://www.theinformation.com/articles/breaking-sam-altman-will-not-return-as-ceo-of-openai\", \"https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1726467995390943518\", \"https://twitter.com/tobyordoxford/status/1726347129759936973\", \"https://twitter.com/sama/status/1726345564059832609\", \"https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-execs-invite-altman-brockman-to-headquarters-in-push-to-reinstate-them?utm_campaign=Editorial&utm_content=Article&utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter\", \"https://twitter.com/alexeheath/status/1726055095341875545\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-18/openai-board-being-pressed-by-some-investors-to-reinstate-altman?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&leadSource=uverify%20wall\", \"https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo\", \"https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1726010786366067039\", \"https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-co-founder-altman-plans-new-venture?utm_campaign=Editorial&utm_content=Article&utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter\"]"}, {"question": "Will Mira Murati be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20001/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI.\nIn a statement, OpenAI's board said:\nMr. Altman\u2019s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\nMira Murati, the former CTO, was appointed interim CEO, effective immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-11-18", "date_close": "2024-03-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO, and No for all others. If the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO is not listed as an option, all options resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.433], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.398], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.416], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.403], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.425], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.432], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.429], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.434], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.432], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.427], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.407], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.406], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.399], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.394], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.389], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.383], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.391], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.386], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.386], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.387], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.392], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.383], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.378], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.373], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.368], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.352], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.349], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.341], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.297], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.281], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.277], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.276], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.276], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.269], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.268], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.207], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.18], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.172], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.168], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.167], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.163], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.157], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.147], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.146], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.146], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.161], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.148], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.148], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.146], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.142], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.142], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.137], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.134], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.131], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.131], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.131], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.124], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.121], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.117], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.117], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.113], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.109], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.109], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.098], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.092]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Ilya Sutskever be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20002/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI.\nIn a statement, OpenAI's board said:\nMr. Altman\u2019s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\nMira Murati, the former CTO, was appointed interim CEO, effective immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-11-18", "date_close": "2024-03-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO, and No for all others. If the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO is not listed as an option, all options resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.18], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.162], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.174], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.153], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.177], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.179], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.203], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.199], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.203], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.199], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.199], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.192], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.189], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.186], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.183], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.177], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.169], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.162], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.157], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.147], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.146], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.142], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.136], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.128], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.126], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.122], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.106], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.101], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.101], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.109], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.099], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.104], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.101], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.067], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.039], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.039], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.039], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.038]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Sam Altman be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20003/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI.\nIn a statement, OpenAI's board said:\nMr. Altman\u2019s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\nMira Murati, the former CTO, was appointed interim CEO, effective immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-11-18", "date_close": "2024-03-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO, and No for all others. If the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO is not listed as an option, all options resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.039], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.039], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.134], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.239], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.301], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.314], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.354], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.357], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.368], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.384], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.419], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.422], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.427], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.464], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.511], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.565], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.573], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.581], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.594], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.385], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.298], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.292], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.264], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.267], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.276], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.281], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.293], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.298], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.299], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.301], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.297], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.298], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.296], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.296], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.303], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.307], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.306], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.312], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.317], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.319], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.333], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.324], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.366], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.376], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.416], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.421], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.444], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.454], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.464], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.468], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.476], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.599], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.618], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.628], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.651], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.704], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.712], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.737], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.784], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.786], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.789], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.788], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.788], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.788], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.791], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.791], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.798], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.799], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.793], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.796], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.796], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.798], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.798], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.798], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.799], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.798]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Eric Schmidt be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20004/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI.\nIn a statement, OpenAI's board said:\nMr. Altman\u2019s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\nMira Murati, the former CTO, was appointed interim CEO, effective immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-11-18", "date_close": "2024-03-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO, and No for all others. If the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO is not listed as an option, all options resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.013], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.018], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.024], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.021], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.021], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.021], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.019]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Satya Nadella be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20006/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI.\nIn a statement, OpenAI's board said:\nMr. Altman\u2019s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\nMira Murati, the former CTO, was appointed interim CEO, effective immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-11-18", "date_close": "2024-03-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO, and No for all others. If the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO is not listed as an option, all options resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.024], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.021], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.018], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.022], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.021], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.024], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.024], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.024], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.023]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Andrej Karpathy be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20007/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI.\nIn a statement, OpenAI's board said:\nMr. Altman\u2019s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\nMira Murati, the former CTO, was appointed interim CEO, effective immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-11-18", "date_close": "2024-03-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO, and No for all others. If the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO is not listed as an option, all options resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.127], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.113], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.111], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.099], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.117], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.118], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.113], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.112], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.107], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.101], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.049], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.051], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.044], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.041], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.037], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.028]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Emmett Shear be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20030/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI.\nIn a statement, OpenAI's board said:\nMr. Altman\u2019s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\nMira Murati, the former CTO, was appointed interim CEO, effective immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2024-03-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes for the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO, and No for all others. If the individual named as OpenAI's next CEO is not listed as an option, all options resolve No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-20\", 0.35], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.312], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.392], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.393], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.438], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.414], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.347], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.319], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.313], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.284], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.291], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.297], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.292], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.297], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.292], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.289], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.301], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.301], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.309], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.31], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.306], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.306], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.301], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.294], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.291], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.292], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.288], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.273], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.272], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.272], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.268], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.282], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.279], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.271], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.268], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.267], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.264], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.258], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.253], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.247], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.231], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.226], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.222], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.222], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.216], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.228], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.224], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.218], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.212], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.203], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.183], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.178], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.139], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.132], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.123], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.117], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.114], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.113], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.107], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.091], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.072], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.062]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will OpenAI report having \u226599% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20038/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "ChatGPT's uptime has exceeded 99% for every month except the month of launch, with Feburary at 98.28%.\nSoftware reliability is often measured in \"number of 9\"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc.\nOpenAI's future is uncertain following the ouster of CEO Sam Altman, prompting speculation that ChatGPT may cease to work.", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, on January 1, 2024, OpenAI's status page for both ChatGPT and the API reports \u2265 99% uptime for the month of December 2023. It resolves No otherwise, including in cases where the status page ceases to exist.\nThe question also resolves No if OpenAI discontinues either ChatGPT or the API and the status page is not updated to reflect this.\nForecasters can find the uptime in grey text to the right of the relevant month. Forecasters will need to adjust the dropdown menu to see the status for both the API and ChatGPT.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-20\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.745], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.771], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.784], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.802], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.833], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.854], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.854], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.861], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.866], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.879], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.882], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.883], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.884], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.884], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.884], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.883], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.884], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.887], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.889], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.892], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.896], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.896], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.897], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.897], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.893], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.894], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.898], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.901], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.902], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.902], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.902], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.904], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.904], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.904], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.911], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.913], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.913], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.914], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.912], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.917], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.917], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.919], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.921], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.929], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.929], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.928], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.928], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.929], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.929], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.924], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.928], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.929], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.928], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.928], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.926], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.926], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.932], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.932], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.932], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.934], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.934], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.936], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.934], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.931], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.931], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.932], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.933], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.934], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.939], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.941], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.943], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.944], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.944], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.944], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.944], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.946], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.949], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.949], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.949], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.95]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69?page=1\", \"https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69>\", \"https://status.openai.com/\", \"https://status.openai.com\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/12/16/chatgpt-hacking-group-anonymous-sudan?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_source=twitter\", \"https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1735140991030473162\", \"https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69?page=1\"]"}, {"question": "Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving \u226520 Israelis and \u226520 Palestinians in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20042/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Per Reuters on October 20, Hamas has said it captured 200 hostages and that 50 more are held by other groups in Gaza, while public broadcaster Kan said 200 Israelis were being held in Gaza.\nOn October 26, Hamas said that \"almost 50\" of those held captive had died in Israeli strikes on Gaza. On 2 November, it said a further 7 had died in a strike on the Jabalia refugee camp. These numbers may change and may not be very accurate as intense bombing persists. (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/a\u2026)", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes based on credible reports that a hostage exchange has been carried out. Through the exchange:\nHamas must release at least 20 Israelis\nIsrael must release at least 20 Palestinians", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.93], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.827], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.813], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.797], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.807], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.892], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.897], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.897], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.797], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.822]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/a\\u2026)\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67477240\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-11-22-23/index.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20043/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "From The Washington Post.\nThe future of OpenAI was thrown into chaos Monday after nearly all employees at the artificial intelligence company threatened to quit and join ousted chief executive Sam Altman at Microsoft, extending the dramatic Silicon Valley boardroom saga.\nMore than 700 of the company\u2019s roughly 770 employees have signed a letter threatening to quit unless the current board resigns and reappoints Altman as CEO, according to a person familiar with the matter. In a bizarre twist, the letter included among the signatories Ilya Sutskever, the company\u2019s chief scientist and a key member of the company\u2019s four-person board, who voted to oust Altman on Friday.\n\u201cYour actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI,\u201d the employees wrote in the letter. \u201cWe are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgment and care for our mission and employees.\u201d", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if at least three of the following individuals leave the OpenAI board before December 1, 2023:\nIlya Sutskever\nAdam D'Angelo\nHelen Toner\nTasha McCauley", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.802], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.794], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.776], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.774], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.752], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.747], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.742], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.734], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.746], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.743], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.717], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.718], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.717], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.713], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.696], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.694], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.651], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.646], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.653], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.652], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.672], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.679], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.748], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.762], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.771], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.774], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.779], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.781], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.807], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.822], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.832], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.845], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.843], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.846], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.846], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.851], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.868], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.872], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.869], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.864], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.867], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.871], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.862], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.862], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.849], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.832], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.835], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.844], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.855], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.853], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.864], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.872], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.869], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.868], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.867], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.867], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.866], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.868], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.867], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.866], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.867], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.868], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.873], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.874], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.871], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.869], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.868], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.868], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.867], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.869], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.869], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.864], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.863], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.847], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.864], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.866], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.868], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.865]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://openai.com/blog/sam-altman-returns-as-ceo-openai-has-a-new-initial-board\", \"https://twitter.com/hlntnr/status/1730034022737125782\", \"https://twitter.com/hlntnr/status/1730034017435586920\", \"https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/29/23981848/sam-altman-back-open-ai-ceo-microsoft-board\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/sam-altmans-back-heres-whos-on-the-new-openai-board-and-whos-out.html\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#Participants\", \"https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-isnt-expected-to-offer-microsoft-other-investors-a-board-seat\", \"https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1727205556136579362?s=19\", \"https://twitter.com/karaswisher/status/1727071629556293935\", \"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1727019242426646869\"]"}, {"question": "Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (\u2264 100)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20045/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, OpenAI announced that it had fired CEO Sam Altman. Following the announcement there were reports that OpenAI leadership and its employees were unhappy with the move, and OpenAI President Greg Brockman announced he was quitting. According to NBC News:\nAltman, whose departure from OpenAI was announced Friday, joined Microsoft early Monday following a weekend of boardroom drama that sent shock waves across Silicon Valley. Altman will lead a new artificial intelligence project at Microsoft, the tech giant said early Monday after rumors swirled that he could make a dramatic return to the company he helped build into one of the world's hottest startups.\nHours later, a letter, which was first reported by Wired and journalist Kara Swisher and later shared with NBC News, said OpenAI employees would resign and possibly join Microsoft \"unless all current board members resign, and the board appoints two new lead independent directors, such as Bret Taylor and Will Hurd, and reinstates Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.\"\nAn OpenAI spokesperson said the letter had been shown to the board.\n\"Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI,\" the letter reads. \"We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgement and care for our mission and employees. We, the undersigned, may choose to resign from OpenAI and join the newly announced Microsoft subsidiary run by Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.\"\nAs of late Monday morning, more than 700 names appeared on the letter, though NBC News has not confirmed all had chosen to sign it. Many of them had published identical posts on X reading \"OpenAI is nothing without its people.\u201d\nOpenAI currently has about 770 employees, the spokesperson said.", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "These questions will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that the current number of employees at OpenAI is less than or equal to the listed number.\nFine Print\nIf there are no reports that employment has dropped significantly enough to meet the thresholds the subquestions will resolve as No. Metaculus may also use reports of the numbers of employees who have left and/or been hired to determine whether the thresholds have been met, based on the reports as of November 20, 2023, of around 770 employees.\nThe median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as Ambiguous if the estimates differ substantially.\nIf the entirety of OpenAI is acquired or undergoes a merger before credible sources report the following thresholds have been met, the unresolved subquestions will be annulled.\nIf a portion of OpenAI is sold or shut down, if OpenAI restructures (for example via chapter 11 bankruptcy), or if OpenAI acquires another company, the subquestions will still resolve based on the overall employment level of OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI changes its name and/or organizational structure but is still the same company these questions will still resolve based on the overall employment level of the company.\nWhere information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as Ambiguous.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-21\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.067], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.039], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.029], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.019], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.018], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.018], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.022], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.021], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.021], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.019], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.019], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.019], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.019], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.019], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.019], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.018], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.018], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.018], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.017], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.017], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.017], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.013], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.013], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.013], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.035]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (\u2264 300)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20046/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, OpenAI announced that it had fired CEO Sam Altman. Following the announcement there were reports that OpenAI leadership and its employees were unhappy with the move, and OpenAI President Greg Brockman announced he was quitting. According to NBC News:\nAltman, whose departure from OpenAI was announced Friday, joined Microsoft early Monday following a weekend of boardroom drama that sent shock waves across Silicon Valley. Altman will lead a new artificial intelligence project at Microsoft, the tech giant said early Monday after rumors swirled that he could make a dramatic return to the company he helped build into one of the world's hottest startups.\nHours later, a letter, which was first reported by Wired and journalist Kara Swisher and later shared with NBC News, said OpenAI employees would resign and possibly join Microsoft \"unless all current board members resign, and the board appoints two new lead independent directors, such as Bret Taylor and Will Hurd, and reinstates Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.\"\nAn OpenAI spokesperson said the letter had been shown to the board.\n\"Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI,\" the letter reads. \"We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgement and care for our mission and employees. We, the undersigned, may choose to resign from OpenAI and join the newly announced Microsoft subsidiary run by Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.\"\nAs of late Monday morning, more than 700 names appeared on the letter, though NBC News has not confirmed all had chosen to sign it. Many of them had published identical posts on X reading \"OpenAI is nothing without its people.\u201d\nOpenAI currently has about 770 employees, the spokesperson said.", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "These questions will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that the current number of employees at OpenAI is less than or equal to the listed number.\nFine Print\nIf there are no reports that employment has dropped significantly enough to meet the thresholds the subquestions will resolve as No. Metaculus may also use reports of the numbers of employees who have left and/or been hired to determine whether the thresholds have been met, based on the reports as of November 20, 2023, of around 770 employees.\nThe median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as Ambiguous if the estimates differ substantially.\nIf the entirety of OpenAI is acquired or undergoes a merger before credible sources report the following thresholds have been met, the unresolved subquestions will be annulled.\nIf a portion of OpenAI is sold or shut down, if OpenAI restructures (for example via chapter 11 bankruptcy), or if OpenAI acquires another company, the subquestions will still resolve based on the overall employment level of OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI changes its name and/or organizational structure but is still the same company these questions will still resolve based on the overall employment level of the company.\nWhere information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as Ambiguous.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-21\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.223], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.198], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.178], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.156], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.149], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.078], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.097], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.099], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.088], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.087], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.086], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.042], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.032], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.031], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.031], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.031], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.028], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.027], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.027], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.029], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.029], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.028], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.027], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.027], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.021], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.016], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.037]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (\u2264 600)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20054/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 17, 2023, OpenAI announced that it had fired CEO Sam Altman. Following the announcement there were reports that OpenAI leadership and its employees were unhappy with the move, and OpenAI President Greg Brockman announced he was quitting. According to NBC News:\nAltman, whose departure from OpenAI was announced Friday, joined Microsoft early Monday following a weekend of boardroom drama that sent shock waves across Silicon Valley. Altman will lead a new artificial intelligence project at Microsoft, the tech giant said early Monday after rumors swirled that he could make a dramatic return to the company he helped build into one of the world's hottest startups.\nHours later, a letter, which was first reported by Wired and journalist Kara Swisher and later shared with NBC News, said OpenAI employees would resign and possibly join Microsoft \"unless all current board members resign, and the board appoints two new lead independent directors, such as Bret Taylor and Will Hurd, and reinstates Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.\"\nAn OpenAI spokesperson said the letter had been shown to the board.\n\"Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI,\" the letter reads. \"We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgement and care for our mission and employees. We, the undersigned, may choose to resign from OpenAI and join the newly announced Microsoft subsidiary run by Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.\"\nAs of late Monday morning, more than 700 names appeared on the letter, though NBC News has not confirmed all had chosen to sign it. Many of them had published identical posts on X reading \"OpenAI is nothing without its people.\u201d\nOpenAI currently has about 770 employees, the spokesperson said.", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "These questions will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that the current number of employees at OpenAI is less than or equal to the listed number.\nFine Print\nIf there are no reports that employment has dropped significantly enough to meet the thresholds the subquestions will resolve as No. Metaculus may also use reports of the numbers of employees who have left and/or been hired to determine whether the thresholds have been met, based on the reports as of November 20, 2023, of around 770 employees.\nThe median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as Ambiguous if the estimates differ substantially.\nIf the entirety of OpenAI is acquired or undergoes a merger before credible sources report the following thresholds have been met, the unresolved subquestions will be annulled.\nIf a portion of OpenAI is sold or shut down, if OpenAI restructures (for example via chapter 11 bankruptcy), or if OpenAI acquires another company, the subquestions will still resolve based on the overall employment level of OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI changes its name and/or organizational structure but is still the same company these questions will still resolve based on the overall employment level of the company.\nWhere information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as Ambiguous.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.492], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.398], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.399], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.419], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.358], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.386], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.363], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.338], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.303], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.362], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.334], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.309], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.309], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.286], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.272], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.266], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.259], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.269], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.257], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.232], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.254], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.251], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.238], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.229], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.221], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.214], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.199], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.159], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.156], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.156], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.148], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.143], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.134], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.134], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.133], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.127], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.127], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.127], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.151], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.146], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.128], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.114], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.114], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.114], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.121], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.118], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.125], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.113], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.111], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.111], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.118], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.116], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.116], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.116], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.109], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.068], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.058], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.065], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.064], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.063], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.063], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.063], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.066], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.066], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.063], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.063], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.057], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.072]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20063/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 22, 2023, Qatar announced that Israel and Hamas had reached an agreement to implement a humanitarian pause. The announcement reads a follows:\nThe State of Qatar announces the success of its joint mediation efforts undertaken with the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), resulting in an agreement for a humanitarian pause. The starting time of the pause will be announced within the next 24 hours and last for four days, subject to extension.\nThe agreement includes the release of 50 civilian women and children hostages currently held in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of a number of Palestinian women and children detained in Israeli prisons, the number of those released will be increased in later stages of implementing the agreement.\nThe humanitarian pause will also allow the entry of a larger number of humanitarian convoys and relief aid, including fuel designated for humanitarian needs.\nThe State of Qatar affirms its commitment to ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions, stop the bloodshed, and protect civilians. In this regard, the State of Qatar appreciates the efforts of the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America in reaching this agreement.", "date_begin": "2023-11-22", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that the length of the November 2023 humanitarian pause between Israel and Hamas has been extended beyond the default length of four days and the extension has begun. If credible sources report that the humanitarian pause will not begin this question will be annulled. If the four-day humanitarian pause begins but credible sources report that it has ended before the default length was reached this question will resolve as No.\nFine Print\nThe extension or ending of the pause will be determined based on credible reports stating that the pause has officially been ended or has officially been extended. Media reports that one side is not respecting the pause will be immaterial. For example, if Hamas leadership were to criticize a strike taken by Israel during the pause, or vice versa, this question will still resolve as Yes so long as credible sources report that the pause was extended.\nThe extension must actually commence, an agreement to extend the pause is not sufficient. If the extension to the pause starts but is then called off by one or more sides, this still resolves as Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.464], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.444], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.444], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.468], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.481], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.488], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.483], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.481], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.486], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.49], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.481], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.476], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.474], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.477], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.457], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.458], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.454], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.452], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.444], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.446], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.446], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.448], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.444], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.443], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.442], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.437], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.438], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.438], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.442], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.436], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.432], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.425], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.421], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.419], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.418], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.417], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.414], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.413], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.418], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.408], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.413], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.413], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.418], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.422], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.428], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.429], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.432], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.435], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.435], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.443], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.458], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.461], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.462], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.471], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.473], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.474], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.483], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.484], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.487], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.494], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.495], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.501], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.504], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.507], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.521], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.522], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.536], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.542], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.542], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.543], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.546], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.558], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.574], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.594], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.638], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.663], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.768], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.789], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.807], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.812], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.819], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.827], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.836], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.837]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/qatar-announces-agreement-to-extend-truce-an-additional-two-days/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-11-25-2023-7d83895eb736c09fab3eada4c31524b0\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-receives-list-hostages-be-released-saturday-by-hamas-2023-11-24/\"]"}, {"question": "Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20092/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On November 21, 2023, the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED) published an alert regarding outbreaks of pneumonia with an unidentified cause in the city of Beijing and Liaoning Province in China. The alert quotes an article published by FTV News, a publication by the Taiwanese broadcasting company Formosa Television.\nProMED quoted the machine translated article as follows:\nWith the outbreak of pneumonia in China, children's hospitals in Beijing, Liaoning and other places were overwhelmed with sick children, and schools and classes were on the verge of suspension. Parents questioned whether the authorities were covering up the epidemic.\nIn the early morning, Beijing Children's Hospital was still overcrowded with parents and children whose children had pneumonia and came to seek treatment. Mr. [W], a Beijing citizen: \"Many, many are hospitalized. They don't cough and have no symptoms. They just have a high temperature (fever) and many develop pulmonary nodules.\"\nThe situation in Liaoning Province is also serious. The lobby of Dalian Children's Hospital is full of sick children receiving intravenous drips. There are also queues of patients at the traditional Chinese medicine hospitals and the central hospitals. A staff member of Dalian Central Hospital said: \"Patients have to wait in line for 2 hours, and we are all in the emergency department and there are no general outpatient clinics.\"\nSome school classes have even been canceled completely. Not only are all students sick, but teachers are also infected with pneumonia. ...\nMr. [W], a Beijing citizen: \"Now you are not allowed to report to school. If you have any symptoms such as fever, cold, cough and then you are hospitalized, you can ask for leave...\"\nSince China stopped adhering to the \"zero\" policy at the beginning of the year [2023], epidemics such as influenza, mycoplasma, and bronchopneumonia have broken out from time to time. ...\nA novel pathogen is generally considered to be one which has not previously been found to infect humans.", "date_begin": "2023-11-22", "date_close": "2023-12-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Healthcare & Biology", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before December 15, 2023, credible sources report that the pneumonia cases reportedly occurring in Beijing or Liaoning have been identified as being caused by a novel pathogen.\nFine Print\nA novel pathogen will be considered to be a pathogen which has previously not been found to have infected humans, and is not an immediate descendent of pathogens currently causing human disease, as described below.\nImmediate descendants of pathogens currently causing human disease, such as variants of SARS-CoV-2, do not count. An immediate descendent will be one which is characterized as being a descendent of a pathogen currently causing human disease and with only minor variations from known strains. However, novel pathogens that are the result of antigenic shift do count. Among pathogens that cause human disease, antigenic shift is currently only known to occur with influenza A and this process is described by the US CDC as an \"abrupt, major change in a flu A virus, resulting in new HA and/or new HA and NA proteins in flu viruses that infect humans\".\nIn the event all other criteria are met except that there is ambiguity regarding whether the pathogen is an immediate descendent of pathogens currently causing human disease Metaculus may wait for additional statements from credible sources describing the lineage of the pathogen, and may resolve the question as Ambiguous if information provided by credible sources is not clear.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-22\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.114], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.108], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.116], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.117], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.122], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.129], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.103], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.074], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.068], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.067], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.057], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.054], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.041], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.039], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.039], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.039], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.039], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.039], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.038], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.037], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.036], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.034], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.033], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.032]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/23/world/asia/who-china-respiratory-children.html\", \"https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON494\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycoplasma_pneumoniae\", \"https://twitter.com/BNOFeed/status/1727789994595496388\", \"https://focustaiwan.tw/society/201011200009\", \"https://www.who.int/news/item/22-11-2023-who-statement-on-reported-clusters-of-respiratory-illness-in-children-in-northern-china\"]"}, {"question": "Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20213/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Venezuela and Guyana have long had a rocky relationship. Their border defined by mutual agreement in 1897 began being questioned by Venezuela in 1962. In 2023, Venezuela drafted a public referendum on whether to further assert its claims. American officials are visiting the region and some are sounding the alarm that the dispute might escalate to war.", "date_begin": "2023-11-25", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Each sub-question will resolve Yes if, between October 10, 2023, and January 1 of the year listed, either the Government of Venezuela or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that Venezuelan ground troops have entered Guyanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Venezuela and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Guyana or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and January 1 of the year indicated in the sub-question.\nFor the purpose of this question, Guyanese territory is determined by the border as of October 10, 2023.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-29\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.111], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.104], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.118], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.124], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.117], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.118], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.121], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.118], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.122], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.118], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.113], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.134], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.154], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.163], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.145], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.133], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.124], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.117], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.117], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.117], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.117], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.113], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.111], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.109], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.091], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.088], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.072], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.072]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20218/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!\nCultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.\nThis question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:\nMETAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=\nThe standard allows for many optional components, but common components are\nThe reporting station (in this case UUEE, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble\nthe day and time of observation (in this case 050800Z meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)\nwind speed and direction (in this case 28003MPS meaning 280\u00b0, 3 m/s)\nvisibility (in this case 7000 meaning 7000 metres)\ncloud cover (in this case SCT006 meaning scattered at 600 feet)\ntemperature (in this case M11/M13 meaning temperature of -11 \u00b0C)\nair pressure (in this case Q1018 meaning 1018 millibar)\nrunway information, starting with R\na near-term forecast (in this case NOSIG meaning no significant change expected)\nBut! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's \"-SN\" for \"light snow\".\nHere are some other examples of reports indicating snow:\nMETAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`\nRESN means \"recent snow\"\nMETAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=\nSG means \"snow grains\"\nMETAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=\n-SHSN means \"light snow shower\"\nFor decoding reports, the web tool by Flight Plan Database can be a helpful assistant.", "date_begin": "2023-11-27", "date_close": "2023-12-16", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "The 10 largest cities in Europe according to Wikipedia are\nIstanbul\nMoscow\nLondon\nSaint Petersburg\nBerlin\nMadrid\nKyiv\nRome\nBucharest\nParis\nFor this question, we unfortunately have to exclude Kyiv due to the lack of standardised aerodrome weather reporting in the area.\nEach of the remaining 9 cities will have been considered to have had a white Christmas if, on either of the days 24 December or 25 December, there has been precipitation in the form of snow. The selection will be set to begin at hour 0 UTC on the 24th and end at hour 23 UTC on the 25th.\nIf four or more of them have had a white Christmas, then this question resolves as Yes. Otherwise, it resolves as No.\nFine Print\nTo determine whether there has been precipitation in these cities, the Ogimet METAR historic data for the dates given above will be consulted. If that source is down, a similar one will be located. If none can be found with reasonable effort, the question resolves Ambiguous.\nThe lookup will be made for the following airports (corresponding to the cities listed above, excluding Kyiv): LTFM, UUEE, EGLL, ULLI, EDDB, LEMD, LIRF, LROP, LFPG. Any reference to snow (SN), snow grains (SG), snow pellets (SP or GS), or snow shower (SW) will count as there being precipitation in the form of snow.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.575], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.586], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.587], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.564], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.479], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.439], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.431], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.416], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.406], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.396], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.386], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.348], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.328], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.324], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.322], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.323], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.311], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.334], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.326], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.328], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.328], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.338], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.334], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.331], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.323], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.324], 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[\"2023-12-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.304], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.303], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.298], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.298], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.297], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.298], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.298], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.306], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.296], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.293], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.292], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.292], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.286], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.286], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.284], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.284], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.287], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.292], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.292], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.291], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.291], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.291], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.286], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.286]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.ogimet.com/display_metars2.php?lang=en&lugar=ULLI&tipo=ALL&ord=REV&nil=SI&fmt=html&ano=2023&mes=12&day=24&hora=00&anof=2023&mesf=12&dayf=25&horaf=23&minf=59&send=send\", 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\"https://www.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin-brandenburg-airport/12529/december-weather/178453_poi\", \"https://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/saint-petersburg/5-295212_1_al/december-weather/5-295212_1_al\", \"https://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/moscow/294021/december-weather/294021\", \"https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/heathrow/tw6-2/december-weather/2532706\", \"https://www.accuweather.com/en/es/madrid/308526/december-weather/308526\", \"https://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/roissy-en-france/159190/december-weather/159190\", \"https://www.accuweather.com/en/it/fiumicino/2579432/december-weather/2579432\", \"https://www.accuweather.com/en/ro/otopeni/284576/december-weather/284576\", \"https://www.accuweather.com/en/tr/tayakadin/1285742/december-weather/1285742\", \"https://metro.co.uk/2023/11/24/last-white-christmas-london-19869810/\", \"https://www.ogimet.com/display_metars2.php?lang=en&lugar=LTFM&tipo=ALL&ord=REV&nil=SI&fmt=html&ano=2022&mes=12&day=24&hora=00&anof=2022&mesf=12&dayf=25&horaf=23&minf=59&send=send\"]"}, {"question": "Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20260/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "A Venezuelan referendum asking five questions is scheduled for December 3, 2023. The subject of the referendum is the territory of Guayana Esequiba, administered by Guyana but claimed by Venezuela. Guyana has asked the UN International Court of Justice to halt the referendum, but Venezuela's Vice President has stated \"Nothing will prevent the referendum scheduled for Dec. 3 from being held\".\nAccording to Demerara Waves the five questions asked in the referendum are as follows:\nDo you agree to reject by all means in accordance with the law the line fraudulently imposed by the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899 that seeks to deprive us of our Guayana Esequiba?\nDo you support the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only valid legal instrument to reach a practical and satisfactory solution for Venezuela and Guyana regarding the controversy over the territory of Guayana Esequiba?\nDo you agree with Venezuela\u2019s historical position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve the territorial controversy over Guayana Esequiba?\nDo you agree to oppose by all means in accordance with the law Guyana\u2019s claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation illegally and in violation of international law?\nDo you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for the comprehensive care of the current and future population of that territory that includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and Venezuelan identity card in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and international law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?", "date_begin": "2023-11-29", "date_close": "2023-12-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the fifth question in the December 3rd, 2023, Venezuelan referendum \u2014 regarding incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuelan territory \u2014 receives more votes in favor than opposed, according to the results published by Venezuela and as reported by credible sources.\nFine Print\nThis question asks specifically about the results of the following referendum question:\nDo you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for the comprehensive care of the current and future population of that territory that includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and Venezuelan identity card in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and international law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?\nThis question asks about the results that Venezuela reports. Whether those results are broadly seen as credible is immaterial.\nIf no referendum is held on December 3rd this question will be annulled.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-30\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.837], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.878], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.852], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.832], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.835], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.858], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.845], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.851], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.867], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.823], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.848], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.806], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.813], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.819], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.83], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.831], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.806], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.794], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.797], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.794], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.791], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.789], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.791], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.796], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.802], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.808], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.811], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.816], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.821], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.822], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.823], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.809], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.811], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.812], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.818], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.826], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.83], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.832], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.841], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.842], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.844], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.845], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.846], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.848], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.849], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.855], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.858], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.859], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.861], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.864], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.868], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.862], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.864], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.866], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.864], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.866], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.862], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.863], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.853], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.857], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.856], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.857], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.857], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.858], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.861], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.862], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.863], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.863], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.863], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.863], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.864], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.867], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.867], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.867], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.868], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.868], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.868], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.868], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.875], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.875], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.882], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.881], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.881], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.881], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.882], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.882], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.882], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.883]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://vxtwitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1731500493573165158?s=20\", \"https://www.elnacional.com/asamblea-nacional/asamblea-nacional-ratifico-la-soberania-de-venezuela-sobre-el-esequibo/\", \"https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/06/22/venezuela-increased-threats-free-elections)\"]"}, {"question": "Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20261/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Republican primary election will kick off on January 15, 2024, with the Iowa caucus, followed soon after by the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd. Several candidates have already dropped out, the most recent being Tim Scott on November 12th. FiveThirtyEight shows seven major candidates remaining though Donald Trump is polling at roughly 60% as of November 29th and has so far his lead has been stable.", "date_begin": "2023-11-29", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after November 29, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, any of the individuals below seeking the nomination as the Republican candidate for president announces that they are dropping out of the race:\nDonald Trump\nRon DeSantis\nNikki Haley\nVivek Ramaswamy\nChris Christie\nDoug Burgum\nAsa Hutchinson", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-30\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.327], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.422], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.418], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.382], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.448], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.436], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.446], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.434], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.499], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.532], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.533], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.522], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.497], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.518], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.529], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.527], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.521], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.497], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.504], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.506], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.48], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.497], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.482], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.488], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.483], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.48], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.477], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.477], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.472], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.482], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.466], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.466], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.471], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.48], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.478], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.479], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.469], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.466], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.459], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.462], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.466], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.477], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.479], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.479], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.479], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.472], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.47], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.469], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.468], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.477], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.478], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.478], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.483], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.483], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.482], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.489], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.491], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.487], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.487], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.484], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.484], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.472], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.469], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.48]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1731706249140396131\", \"https://x.com/emperoreaganite/status/1731705291719229937?s=46&t=GwupFDzirt2XLJhnOmYeuQ\", \"https://who13.com/news/presidential-candidate-asa-hutchinson-back-in-iowa-this-week/\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/video/doug-burgum-explains-why-hes-staying-in-2024-race/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2023 Dec 31st, \u2265 40%)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20275/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Approval rating is a key input in election predictions. Much policy is also focused around influencing public opinion.", "date_begin": "2023-12-01", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Each subquestion resolves Yes if Biden's 538 Approve rating is \u2265 the relevant number on the indicated date.\nThis is the Approve rating, as opposed to Disapprove or Net Approval. Currently there is only 1 value per day, but should this change it will be the value displaying on 17:00 UTC (ie the last value before that time) on the relevant day.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-17\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.225], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.167], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.188], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.348], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.398], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.348], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.348], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.348], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.348], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.349], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.349], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.345], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.345], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.308], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.308], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.299], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.299], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.28]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20383/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Union of German Train Drivers (Gewerkschaft Deutscher Lokomotivf\u00fchrer or GDL) represents workers in train companies in Germany. The GDL has been negotiating with the national rail company Deutsche Bahn, and underwent a \"warning strike\" in November due to a perceived lack of progress.", "date_begin": "2023-12-05", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after December 5, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) strike has begun.\nFine Print\nAn announcement that a strike will take place is not sufficient, the strike must actually begin.\nReports that the strike is underway are not strictly necessary. An announcement of a strike combined with an absence of reporting stating that the strike did not occur will be sufficient to resolve as Yes.\nThere is no requirement on the length of time or the size of the strike, so long as it is a GDL strike according to credible reporting.\nA \"warning strike\" will be sufficient to resolve as Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.48], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.774], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.583], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.537], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.632], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.618], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.596], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.552], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.635], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.666], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.661], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.664], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.662], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.665], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.664], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.692], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.714], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.731], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.733], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.728], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.704], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.737], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.742], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.745], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.732], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.725], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.737], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.737], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.753], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.765], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.771], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.771], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.758], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.766], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.766], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.773], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.774], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.774]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bahn-faces-overnight-strike-by-gdl-union-6b65382e?mod=newsviewer_click\", \"https://www.hna.de/wirtschaft/warnstreik-bei-der-deutschen-bahn-beginnt-gdl-tarifstreit-ticket-weselsky-zr-92715996.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-train-drivers-go-strike-thursday-friday-gdl-union-2023-12-06/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20560/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel Jack Smith filed a petition for a writ of certiorari before judgment to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\nWhether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference, following an attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision rejecting that argument. Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is scheduled to begin March 4, 2024, and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has responded to the petition with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th.", "date_begin": "2023-12-13", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court has issued a decision either granting or denying a writ of certiorari before judgment for the petition filed by US Special Counsel Jack Smith against Donald Trump.\nFine Print\nThe outcome of the decision is irrelevant, this question only asks whether such a decision has been issued.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-14\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.465], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.489], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.431], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.413], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.388], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.371], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.375], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.414], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.397], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.396], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.384], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.368], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.358], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.321], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.322], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.336], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.342], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.332], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.323], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.332], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.333], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.336], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.334], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.317], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.317], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.317], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.314], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.318], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.317], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.319], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.318], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.321], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.321], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.322], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.322], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.331], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.338], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.338], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.339], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.339], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.359], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.358], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.369], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.421], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.426], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.435], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.433], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.442], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.438], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.438], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.439], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.446], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.449], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.449], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.448], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.446], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.452], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.451], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.457], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.458], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.457], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.454], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.453], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.456], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.463], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.471], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.471], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.474], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.474], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.478], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.478], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.486], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.486], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.487], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.488], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.488], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.492], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.493], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.494], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.496], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.496], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.497], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.488], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.463], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.456]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1738282563821506572\", \"https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1738280187526009040\", \"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1738280076658065885\", \"https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/293970/20231221105032440_United%20States%20v.%20Trump_CBJ%20Reply.pdf\", \"https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/ndlr/vol95/iss1/3/\", \"https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/D8B4E4A98FA295DE852583AD00547CD5/$file/18-3052.pdf\", \"https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Miller-Stay.pdf\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20560/trump-immunity-cert-decision-before-2024/#comment-140860\", \"https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1737648294539727292\", \"https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/293864/20231220140217967_US%20v.%20Trump%20amicus%20final.pdf\", \"https://reason.com/volokh/2023/12/20/special-counsel-jack-smmiths-appointment-is-unconstitutional/\", \"https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/293865/20231220140543301_23-624%20-%20U.S.%20v.%20Trump%20-%20Brief%20in%20Opposition%20to%20Petition%20for%20Certiorari%20Before%20Judgment%20-%20Filed.pdf\", \"https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1737254880236933157\", \"https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1737247893726109940\", \"https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/ordersofthecourt/23\", \"https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1736869239653363731\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/us/supreme-court-dobbs-roe-abortion.html\", \"https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-supreme-court-presidential-immunity-election-fraud-trial-1851751\"]"}, {"question": "Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20568/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and Israel's military response, a number of protests were held at US universities, some of which included students making antisemitic threats. In November, the federal government opened civil rights investigations into a number of universities.\nIn late November the House Committee on Education and the Workforce announced a hearing to be held on December 5th featuring testimony on antisemitism on college campuses from Harvard President Claudine Gay, MIT President Sally Kornbluth and Penn President Liz Magill. Following the hearing all three were criticized for not providing clear answers in response to questions about whether antisemitic speech violated university policy. Penn President Liz Magill stepped down after receiving backlash for her responses during the hearing.\nClaudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth remain presidents of their respective universities, and on December 12th the Harvard board unanimously expressed their support for Gay. However, Gay has also faced accusations of plagiarism during the increased scrutiny, and on December 13th the US House of Representatives passed a resolution condemning antisemitism that included a call for Gay and Kornbluth to step down. According to Axios:\nThe resolution passed 303-126, with 84 Democrats voting in favor of it and 125 voting against it. All Republicans except Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) voted for it. . . The measure was voted on under a process known as suspension of the rules, meaning it needed two-thirds, or roughly 290 votes, to pass.", "date_begin": "2023-12-14", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Education & Research", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, it is announced by the respective president or university that either Harvard President Claudine Gay or Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) President Sally Kornbluth will vacate or have vacated the office of president at their university, for any reason.\nFine Print\nThe position need not be vacated before 2024, only an announcement is required.\nSuch announcement will resolve the question as Yes, even if it's later reversed.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-15\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.312], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.286], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.278], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.262], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.273], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.242], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.266], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.258], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.258], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.237], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.212], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.213], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.196], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.178], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.177], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.172], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.157], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.148], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.141], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.134], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.134], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.123], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.122], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.123], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.104], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.088], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.079], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.072], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.071], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.092], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.092], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.074], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.07], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.068], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.062], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.062], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.061], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.059], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.057], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.057], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.047]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20568/harvard-or-mit-presidents-vacate-before-2024/#comment-142620\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/02/business/claudine-gay-harvard-president-resigns/index.html\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/01/02/us/claudine-gay-harvard\", \"https://archive.is/p6VS1\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/20/business/harvard-president-claudine-gay-plagiarism/index.html\", \"https://freebeacon.com/campus/fresh-allegations-of-plagiarism-unearthed-in-official-academic-complaint-against-claudine-gay/\"]"}, {"question": "Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20569/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "The Voyager probes are the human-made machines that have gone both the fastest and the furthest away from Earth. They were launched in the late '70s,\nInitially designed to last five years, the Voyager probes are the two longest-operating spacecraft in history. Their exceptionally long lifespans mean that both spacecraft have provided additional insights about our solar system and beyond after achieving their preliminary goals of flying by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune decades ago.\nHowever, their continued operation relies on creative ways to shut down instruments to conserve power, and it's not always smooth sailing:\nAlong the way, both spacecraft have encountered unexpected issues and dropouts, including a seven-month period in 2020 when Voyager 2 couldn\u2019t communicate with Earth. In August, the mission team used a long-shot \u201cshout\u201d technique to restore communications with Voyager 2 after a command inadvertently oriented the spacecraft\u2019s antenna in the wrong direction.\nUnfortunately, now\nVoyager 1\u2019s flight data system now appears to be stuck on auto-repeat. The mission team first noticed the issue November 14, when the flight data system\u2019s telecommunications unit began sending back a repeating pattern of ones and zeroes, like it was trapped in a loop.\nA fix is unlikely to to implemented before the new year.\nIt could take several weeks for engineers to develop a new plan to remedy the issue. Finding solutions to challenges the probes encounter often entails consulting original, decades-old documents written by engineers who didn\u2019t anticipate the issues that are arising today. As a result, it takes time for the team to understand how a new command will affect the spacecraft\u2019s operations in order to avoid unintended consequences.\nThis question answers how unlikely, exactly?", "date_begin": "2023-12-15", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, before 1 January 2024, NASA or other credible sources reports that the communications or computer issue with Voyager 1 has been solved. If the solution does not involve the suspected flight data system (FDS), this still resolves Yes, as long as NASA starts receiving either of \"science or engineering data\".\nIn all other cases this question resolves No.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.126], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.111], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.125], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.163], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.159], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.188], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.188], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.169], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.169], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.168], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.16], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.158], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.156], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.163], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.159], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.154], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.152], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.152], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.151], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.133], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.133], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.127], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.129], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.122], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.122], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.119], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.109], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.104], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.113], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.111], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.109], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.109], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.106], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.104], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.104], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.101], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.111], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.091], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.099], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.097], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.093], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.093], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.092], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.092], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.092], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.092], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.088]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20592/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel Jack Smith filed a petition for a writ of certiorari before judgment to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\nWhether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference, following an attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision rejecting that argument. Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is scheduled to begin March 4, 2024, and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has responded to the petition with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th.", "date_begin": "2023-12-15", "date_close": "2024-01-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before February 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court has issued a decision granting a writ of certiorari before judgment for the petition filed by US Special Counsel Jack Smith against Donald Trump.\nFine Print\nA writ of certiorari granted to a successor case consisting of one or more cases merged with the petition filed by Jack Smith against Donald Trump will also resolve the question as Yes.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-16\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.683], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.683], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.692], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.653], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.633], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.633], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.625], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.635], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.646], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.638], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.653], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.674], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.685], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.691], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.701], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.714], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.726], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.728], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.723], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.709], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.642], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.637], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.668], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.687], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.632]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://abcnews.go.com/US/supreme-court-denies-special-counsels-request-trump-immunity/story?id=105879323\", \"https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1738282563821506572\", \"https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1738280187526009040\", \"https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/293864/20231220140217967_US%20v.%20Trump%20amicus%20final.pdf\", \"https://reason.com/volokh/2023/12/20/special-counsel-jack-smmiths-appointment-is-unconstitutional/\", \"https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/293865/20231220140543301_23-624%20-%20U.S.%20v.%20Trump%20-%20Brief%20in%20Opposition%20to%20Petition%20for%20Certiorari%20Before%20Judgment%20-%20Filed.pdf\", \"https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1736869239653363731\"]"}, {"question": "Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20707/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Most of the world's largest container and freight shipping companies have announced that they will pause shipments through the Red Sea due to ongoing attacks on vessels by Yemen's Houthi rebels.\nIn response to the attacks, the US has announced a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea, however it remains to be seen how effective the protection will be and how soon merchant shipping will resume.", "date_begin": "2023-12-19", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after December 19, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a major shipping company from the list below will resume shipments through the Red Sea.\nMediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)\nMaersk\nCMA CGM\nHapag-Lloyd\nEvergreen\nBP\nFine Print\nAn announcement that shipments through the Red Sea will resume is sufficient, so long as it's not conditional on other developments and, if a date or resumption is provided, the stated date of resumption is before January 15, 2024. For example, an announcement that shipments will resume when there are no Red Sea hostilities would not be sufficient, nor is an announcement that shipments will resume if the United States or another country provides additional protection above what it has committed to.\nAn announcement must be unambiguous and convey a planned course of action. For example \"we will resume shipments this week\" or \"we plan to. . .\" or \"we intend to. . .\" would all qualify. Statements or announcements that express a desire or goal will not qualify, for example \"we hope to resume shipments this week\" would not count. Metaculus may make a determination regarding the language used, and may resolve the question as Ambiguous in the event an announcement or statement is unclear.\nOnly a qualifying announcement is required, whether a company actually resumes shipping as announced is immaterial.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-20\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.268], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.258], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.296], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.264], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.298], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.303], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.348], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.341], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.341], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.341], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.323], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.323], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.301], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.293], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.286], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.296], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.294], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.307], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.287], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.281], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.277], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.279], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.279], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.278], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.274], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.277], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.282], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.276], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.268], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.261], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.259], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.273], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.273], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.272], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.273], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.274], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.271], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.271], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.272], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.271], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.267], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.278], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.278], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.277], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.278], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.275], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.277], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.276], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.295], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.322], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.327], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.339], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.381], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.424], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.453], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.452], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.464], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.47], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.478], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.482], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.487], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.511], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.519], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.543], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.554], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.559], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.555], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.576], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.578], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.578], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.583], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.581], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.571], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.592], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.592], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.587], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.589], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.602], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.604], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.599], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.597], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.601], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.607]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.marineinsight.com/know-more/10-largest-container-shipping-companies-in-the-world/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/hapag-lloyd-decide-wednesday-about-its-red-sea-routes-2023-12-26/\", \"https://www.cma-cgm.com/news/4548/cma-cgm-group-updates-on-the-red-sea-situation\", \"https://x.com/typesfast/status/1742226495542829310?s=20\", \"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Shed-2-As-Shippers-Gamble-on-Red-Sea.html\", \"https://archive.is/bXHp0\", \"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2023/12/22/red-sea-gulf-of-aden-situation\", \"https://www.voanews.com/a/vessel-near-yemen-said-to-report-drones-explosions-in-red-sea/7412804.html\", \"https://gcaptain.com/cma-cgm-planning-to-gradually-increase-sailings-through-the-red-sea/\", \"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2023/12/22/booking-acceptanceat-ports-around-red-sea-gulf-of-aden\", \"https://www.cma-cgm.com/news/4548/cma-cgm-group-updates-on-the-red-sea-situation\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67821796\", \"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2023/12/22/red-sea-gulf-of-aden-situation?exit=Newsletter\", \"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2023/12/22/booking-acceptanceat-ports-around-red-sea-gulf-of-aden?exit=Newsletter\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/4af8ca2f-a34c-42cc-b0f8-8f4d30d35c5c\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/shipping-giant-maersk-prepares-resume-operations-red-sea-2023-12-24/\", \"https://gcaptain.com/french-navy-quits-operation-prosperity-guardian/\", \"https://x.com/mercoglianos/status/1738198015167308002?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://x.com/marhelmdata/status/1737972005633188344?s=46&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://x.com/johnkonrad?s=21&t=_YmAecSVs2VA69S5x7G9OQ\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/shipping-industry-dark-over-us-led-red-sea-navy-force-2023-12-20/\"]"}, {"question": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20739/", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, Yemen's Houthi rebels have launched a series of ongoing attacks on vessels in the Red Sea including against US warships.\nIn response to the attacks, the US has announced a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea. According to reporting by the Guardian:\nOne analyst, Farea Al-Muslimi from the Chatham House thinktank, said they expected the Houthi attacks to continue for now despite the US announcement \u2013 and that commercial shipping was likely to remain wary of using the Red Sea.\n\u201cThe Houthis will carry on, they love attention and they have a wide degree of support in the Arab world,\u201d Al-Muslimi said. \u201cSo far nobody has died as a result of the Houthi attacks \u2013 if somebody is killed then there will likely have to be a response.\u201d", "date_begin": "2023-12-20", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after December 20, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a member of the US military has been killed in the Red Sea due to an attack.\nFine Print\nThis does not include non-combat deaths, such as those occurring during training or by accident.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-20\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.118], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.093], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.124], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.121], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.136], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.131], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.132], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.129], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.127], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.126], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.124], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.112], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.111], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.108], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.103], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.098], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.094], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.094], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.096], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.093], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.089], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.087], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.084], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.088], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.086], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.083], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.082], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.081], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.078], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.077], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.076], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.073], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.068], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.067], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.067], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.066], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.064], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.063], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.061], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.061], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.06], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.059], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.058], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.057], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.059], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.058], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.056], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.053], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.052], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.051], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.049], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.048], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.047], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.046], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.042]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_involvement_in_the_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#Attacks_on_shipping_in_the_Red_Sea_and_Indian_Ocean\", \"https://dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/app/summaryData/deaths/byYearManner\"]"}, {"question": "Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20741/", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "metaculus", "question_type": "binary", "background": "According to NPR:\nIn October [2023], the U.S. International Trade Commission ruled that some Apple Watches violated Masimo's patents for the the blood oxygen feature that Apple has included in most of its smartphone watches since 2020.\nOn December 18, Apple announced that it would halt sales of the Apple watches. According to the Verge:\n.The ban only affects the flagship Series 9 and Ultra 2 models. Since the Apple Watch SE does not have the SpO2 sensor, it remains unaffected. Previous models of the Apple Watch with the blood oxygen sensor will also not be impacted. The ITC ban also only impacts sales of the Series 9 and Ultra 2 within the US \u2014 the watches will still be available for sale abroad.\nThe patent disputes between Apple and Masimo have been thorny over the past few years. Masimo is most well known for its pulse oximeter. Masimo filed two separate cases \u2014 one with the US District Court in the Central District of California and a second with the ITC \u2014claiming that Apple infringed on its pulse oximetry tech. This particular import ban is a result of the latter.\n. . .\nRight now, it\u2019s unclear whether the ITC import ban will stand. It\u2019s currently undergoing a presidential review period, and President Joe Biden will have the opportunity to veto the ban. Presidential vetos, however, are uncommon, though Apple has benefitted from them in the past. In 2013, former President Barack Obama vetoed an ITC import ban on the iPhone 4 and certain iPad models. That said, Biden chose to uphold another ITC ruling that would see Apple Watch imports banned over the EKG feature. The presidential review period ends December 25th, so we\u2019ll have to see if things change between now and then.", "date_begin": "2023-12-20", "date_close": "2023-12-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before December 27, 2023, credible sources report that the ban on imports of some Apple watches containing blood oxygen sensors has taken effect.\nFine Print\nThe ban on imports will be considered to have taken effect if the International Trade Commission order becomes final, or in other words if after the presidential review period the President has not disapproved the order or if the President has affirmatively approved it.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-20\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.823], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.852], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.793], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.773], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.789], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.772], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.764], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.783], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.784], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.776], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.781], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.779], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.785], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.793], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.794], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.796], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.796], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.799], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.792], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.792], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.801], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.776], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.801], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.801], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.803], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.789], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.798], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.801], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.801], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.804], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.806], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.806], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.81], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.817], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.806], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.806], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.812], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.812], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.814], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.816], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.827], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.834], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.836], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.837], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.837], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.837], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.841], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.842], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.842], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.821], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.824], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.825], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.827], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.828], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.831], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.832], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.831], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.838], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.838], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.841], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.841], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.845], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.846], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.848], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.851], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.852], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.853], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.856], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.856], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.859], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.863], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.857], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.878], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.881], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.882], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.882], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.883], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.884], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.884], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.883], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.884], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.885], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.887], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.889], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.889], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.892], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.893], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.89]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reuters.com/technology/biden-administration-allows-us-trade-tribunals-ban-apple-watch-imports-2023-12-26/\", \"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RS/RS22188/30#:~:text=Since%20the%20founding%20of%20the,14.5%25)%20of%20these%20vetoes.&text=H.J.)\", \"https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics).\", \"https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2310-006a_3.pdf\"]"}, {"question": "Will US federal criminal charges be filed against Changpeng Zhao for actions related to the operation of Binance and/or Binance.US before 30 December 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2917", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Zhao, the founder of Binance, is already facing civil complaints from the CFTC and SEC related to the operation of the cryptocurrency exchange, though no criminal charges have yet been filed (<a href=\"https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/12/doj-divided-over-charging-binance-for-alleged-crypto-crimes-report-says/\" target=\"_blank\">Ars Technica</a>, <a href=\"https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-justice-department-investigating-binance-for-violating-russian-sanctions-report\" target=\"_blank\">Coin Telegraph</a>, <a href=\"https://cointelegraph.com/news/kevin-oleary-binance-sec-charges\" target=\"_blank\">Coin Telegraph</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8680-23\" target=\"_blank\">CFTC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-101\" target=\"_blank\">SEC</a>). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (<a href=\"https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/charge\" target=\"_blank\">Cornell</a>, see Definition (1), <a href=\"https://legalbeagle.com/6790439-sealed-indictment.html?ref=lz2020b\" target=\"_blank\">Legal Beagle</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-23", "date_close": "2023-11-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-23\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.545], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.3967], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.276], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.2467], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.2629], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.2675], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.3222], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.3067], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.2956], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.286], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.255], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.2483], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.396], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.37], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.432], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.369], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.372], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.353], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.343], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.343], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.362], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.364], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.409], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.408], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.347], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.357], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.342], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.341], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.339], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.337], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.329], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.346], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.353], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.352], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.312], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.308], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.306], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.314], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.316], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.312], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.302], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.289], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.279], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.277], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.271], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.279], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.369], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.269], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.269], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.268], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.264], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.184], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.168], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.188], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.27]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binance\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-justice-dept-is-split-over-charging-binance-crypto-world-falters-sources-2022-12-12/\"]"}, {"question": "Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 15 October 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2925", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>SpaceX is working to launch its next orbital flight test as soon as summer 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-outlines-major-upgrades-before-next-launch-of-super-heavy-rocket/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-25-engine-test-photo\" target=\"_blank\">Space.com</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (<a href=\"https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-14-engine-test-fire\" target=\"_blank\">Space.com</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-30\", 0.67], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.635], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.6233], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.635], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.628], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.69], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.6771], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.67], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.6322], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.6356], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.672], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.7018], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.7058], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.7108], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.7108], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.7092], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.6979], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.6971], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.704], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.6788], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.6725], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.6329], 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[\"2023-10-09\", 0.0232], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0186], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.0164], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.0164], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.0077], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.0077], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.0055], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0048], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0043], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0043], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0043], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0043]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230518-what-are-the-odds-of-a-successful-space-launch\", \"https://twitter.com/FelixSchlang/status/1704890443798872381?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1704890443798872381%7Ctwgr%5Ecc250848c964342cc0c4d11dfd3836f3f58ea50a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.astrospace.it%2F2023%2F09%2F23%2Fspacex-faa-a-che-punto-sono-i-permessi-per-il-secondo-lancio-di-starship%2F\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/spacex-starship-explosion-caused-3point5-acre-fire-us-fws-says-.html?\", \"https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/faa-nears-approval-for-spacexs-second-starship-launch/\", \"https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1700789411279966339\", \"https://www.faa.gov/media/70901\", \"https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/09/12/faa-closes-spacex-led-starship-mishap-investigation/\", \"https://www.cnet.com/science/space/next-flight-of-the-giant-spacex-starship-is-drawing-closer/\", \"https://futurism.com/the-byte/elon-musk-starship-explosion-odds\", \"https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/spacex-s-starship-still-needs-wildlife-agency-review-to-resume-launch-1.1973066\", \"https://gizmodo.com/environmental-review-delay-spacex-starship-launch-1850853128\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/technology/spacex-launch-of-starship-rocket-on-hold-amid-mishap-investigation/ar-AA1gnOKO\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/spacex-starship-explosion-caused-3point5-acre-fire-us-fws-says-.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&amp;par=sharebar\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/14/world/spacex-starship-faa-license-expected-october-scn/index.html\", \"https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/08/let-the-review-begin-spacex-takes-another-step-toward-launching-starship-again/?utm_source=nl&amp;utm_brand=ars&amp;utm_campaign=aud-dev&amp;utm_mailing=ARS_Rocket_081723&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;bxid=6026e1114c9727341c7c392a&amp;cndid=70539116&amp;hasha=210ed1c22df936546a7a05f489ca6ffd&amp;hashb=5b42d57a3da027dd8210287bbb5298a82f74c431&amp;hashc=61cb36390fcf409d22e9d66afa5d635a45b7b195587b2e6bba73c8dd765929d4&amp;esrc=&amp;utm_term=ARS_RocketReport\", \"https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/wildlife-approval\", \"https://apnews.com/article/spacex-starship-launch-accident-faa-a8d6cec63de579af4b6d5f040e51825d\", \"https://www.spacex.com/updates/index.html#:~:text=UPGRADES%20AHEAD%20OF%20STARSHIP%E2%80%99S%20SECOND%20FLIGHT%20TEST\", \"https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/09/faa-says-spacex-has-more-to-do-before-starship-can-fly-again/\", \"https://www.independent.co.uk/space/starship-launch-date-spacex-faa-b2415048.html\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/world/spacex-starship-launch-license-scn/index.html\", \"https://www.cnet.com/science/space/next-launch-of-spacex-starship-faces-more-potential-delays/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/faa-could-advance-spacex-starship-license-soon-october-2023-09-13/\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/spacex-s-starship-still-needs-fish-and-wildlife-review-to-start\", \"https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/08/elon-musk-says-starship-is-ready-to-launch-faa-says-not-yet/\"]"}, {"question": "Will North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit before 23 September 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2920", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>In May 2023, North Korea failed in an attempt to launch a spy satellite, but plans to try again (<a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/05/30/1178961618/north-korea-rocket-launch-military-satellite-south-korea\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-spy-satellite-ruling-party-c9f16baacd3a8bdb87d8393f481d0cb8\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (<a href=\"https://www.38north.org/2022/03/a-north-korean-satellite-launch-what-to-watch-for/\" target=\"_blank\">38 North</a>). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-23", "date_close": "2023-09-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-23\", 0.09], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.1025], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.142], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.1183], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1014], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.095], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.19], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.171], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1645], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1618], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1618], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1483], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.14], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1423], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1714], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1633], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1459], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.1459], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.1378], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.1305], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.1365], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.131], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1259], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1243], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1196], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1176], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1131], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1119], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1281], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1236], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0996], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.1083], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.1148], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.1142], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.1067], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.1567], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.1563], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.1537], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.1579], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.1616], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.1535], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.1605], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.1672], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.1839], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1878], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.2317], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.2221], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1963], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1915], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1975], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.2085], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.2055], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.202], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.2114], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.2076], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.2086], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.2186], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.2132], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.1868], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.1823], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.1732], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.1678], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.1691], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.1696], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.167], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.1608], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.1625], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.1563], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.1558], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.1558], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.1517], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.1513], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.1513], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.1521], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.1525], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.1521], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.146], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.146], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.152], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.1532], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.1572], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.1604], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.1608], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.1592], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.158], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.1558], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.1412], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.1385], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.1385], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.1377], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.1404], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.1385], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.1354], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1458], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.1454], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1492], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1454], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.1412], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.1408], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1415], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1412], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1408], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1408], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1581], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1577], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1563], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1559], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.163], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1626], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1622], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1585], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1574], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.1567], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.1567], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1552], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1541], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1541], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1526], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1441], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1433], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1444], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.1426], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.1389], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.1364], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.1357], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.1346], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.1357], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.1007], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.1004], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0996], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0989], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0993], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0989], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0986], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.0979], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0968], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.1021], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.1066], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.1059], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1024], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1034], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1066], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1062], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.1055], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.1048], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.1034], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.1059], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.1059], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.1048], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.1048], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.1213], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.1313], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.1513], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.148], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.1353], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.138], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.1557], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.1723], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.1793], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.1803], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.1633], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.1433], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.1217], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.1223], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.1057], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.1013], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0813], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0783], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0733], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.073], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0727], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.066], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0653], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0653], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0587], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.058], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0543], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.054], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0533], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0553], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0537], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0533], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0523], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0457], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.044], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0745], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0429], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0429], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.039], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.0387], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.0374], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.0374], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.0326], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.0316], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.0316], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.0122], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.0084], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.0082], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.0082], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.0106], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.0091], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.0079], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.0076], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0076], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0079], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0094], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0094], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0088], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0088], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0085], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0085], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0082], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0082], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0079], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0115], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0115], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0106], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0103], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0088], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.0103], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.0103], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.0103], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.0097], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.0097], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.0097], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.0097], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.0103], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.0088], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.0086], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.0086], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.0086], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.0092], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.01], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0075], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0075], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0072], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0072], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0031], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0031], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.0031]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://m.khan.co.kr/politics/north-korea/article/202306122056005\", \"https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230809006400325\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unha\", \"https://www.bolnews.com/international/2023/08/north-korea-to-launch-satellites-into-space-soon/\", \"https://thehill.com/policy/international/4157277-north-korea-preparing-icbm-tests-and-spy-satellite-launch/\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/north-korean-leader-orders-sharp-164447108.html\", \"https://sejong.org/web/boad/1/egoread.php?bd=3&amp;itm=&amp;txt=&amp;pg=1&amp;seq=7265\", \"https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-satellite-us-drills-summit-67262f21543d6e859f324b02dc29c75e\", \"https://m5dergi.com/one-cikan/86427/\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/article/north-korea-missile-launch.html\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng_program\", \"https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-appears-to-test-rocket-engine-as-it-preps-for-next-satellite-launch/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-govt-issues-emergency-warning-over-j-alert-broadcasting-system-2023-08-23/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-announces-it-will-launch-satellite-between-aug-24-31-into-yellow-sea-2023-08-21/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-rocket-launch-satellite-d9d686ca04466c3069ed2f07b2cd70d1\", \"https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/tr/news/20230822_07/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-spy-satellite-launch-21bbbbddadd46d5050c1792e7eb7984b\", \"https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-spy-satellite-ruling-party-c9f16baacd3a8bdb87d8393f481d0cb8\", \"https://www.geo.tv/latest/504127-north-korea-set-to-launch-its-satellites-into-space-yonhap\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malligyong-1\", \"https://www.npr.org/2022/05/18/1099874018/biden-asia-visit-north-korea-missile-nuclear-test\", \"https://sejong.org/web/boad/1/egoread.php?bd=3&amp;seq=7250\", \"https://youtu.be/V9xCq6RaNjQ?si=HlAEJBOmZiBeHGme\", \"https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-13-23/index.html\", \"https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/north-korean-leader-may-visit-russia-to-meet-with-putin-report/2983493#\"]"}, {"question": "Will the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) before 1 October 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2909", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Dock workers represented by the ILWU have been working without a contract since July 2022, and work stoppages at some West Coast ports have some looking to the White House to intervene (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-06-05/us-west-coast-labor-unrest-continues-amid-sparring-over-pay\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/02/west-coast-ports-shut-after-union-workers-walk-off-job-over-wages.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.porttechnology.org/news/pressure-mounts-on-white-house-as-us-west-coast-strikes-persist/\" target=\"_blank\">Port Technology</a>). The question would close upon the vote by the union members approving the new collective bargaining agreement.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-09", "date_close": "2023-08-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-09\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.965], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.6433], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.7325], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.716], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.7633], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.7743], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.74], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.7422], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.7533], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.7611], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.7633], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.777], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.684], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.683], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.691], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.771], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.772], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.793], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.793], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.773], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.769], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.764], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.814], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.824], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.729], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.727], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.722], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.717], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.694], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.689], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.589], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.584], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.584], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.574], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.654], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.654]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.ilwu63.net/50922-2/\", \"https://www.ilwu.org/coast-longshore-division-caucus-unanimously-votes-to-send-tentative-agreement-to-membership/\", \"https://www.ilwu.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DispatcherAPR2015lores-1.pdf\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/15/west-coast-port-deal-with-ilwu-will-take-months-to-be-union-ratified.html\", \"https://splash247.com/white-house-hails-progress-made-in-us-west-coast-port-contract-negotiations/\", \"https://www.dailybreeze.com/2023/06/21/longshore-delegates-to-meet-in-long-beach-in-july-to-weigh-new-labor-contract/amp/\", \"https://www.ilwu.org/negotiating-committee-reaches-tentative-agreement-on-new-longshore-contract/\"]"}, {"question": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 16 December 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2913", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement (<a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/13/blinken-previews-robust-package-for-ukraine-with-nato-secretary-general-00101734\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/nato-ukraine-russia-war-footing-1806011\" target=\"_blank\">Newsweek</a>). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 31 NATO member states (<a href=\"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52044.htm\" target=\"_blank\">NATO</a>). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered \"national military forces and/or law enforcement\" (e.g., <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-d0243a1708a3115e5ad0ac40aed99b9f\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60684749\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-16", "date_close": "2023-12-16", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-16\", 0.0], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.092], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.0783], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.0613], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.1544], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.0556], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.0955], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.0875], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.0854], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.0813], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.0769], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.0724], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.0739], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.0747], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.073], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.0725], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.069], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.0664], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0687], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0721], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0736], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0731], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0715], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0748], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0613], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0592], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0608], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0604], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0596], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.0815], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.0776], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.0789], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.0765], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.0919], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.094], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.1229], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.1323], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1539], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1892], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1828], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1815], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1888], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1819], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1827], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1763], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.18], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1775], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1782], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1759], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.17], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1652], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.1619], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.1619], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.1591], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.1794], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.23], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.2296], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.2417], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.2426], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.2388], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.2242], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1975], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.19], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1844], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1652], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.1627], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.1619], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.1246], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1212], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.1258], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.1215], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.1167], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.1193], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1196], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1166], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1131], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0959], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.093], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.0893], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.0893], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0917], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.092], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.0953], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.078], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.0755], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.0716], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.0726], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.069], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.0684], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.0652], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.0635], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.0623], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.0603], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.0588], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.0581], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.0591], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.0581], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.0564], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.0524], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.0539], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.0539], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.0524], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.0521], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.0579], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.0576], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.0518], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.0521], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.0518], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.0521], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.0521], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.0488], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.0485], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0485], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0515], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0557], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0554], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.0574], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.0574], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.0583], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.058], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.0577], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0589], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0594], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0597], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0597], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0594], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.0592], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.0592], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.0578], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.0575], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0562], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0603], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0597], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0597], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0597], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0518], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0503], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0508], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.0505], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.0505], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.0484], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0482], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0405], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0405], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0397], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0395], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0389], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0395], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.0382], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.0376], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.0376], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.0374], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.0372], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.0369], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.0364], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0341], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0341], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0341], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0338], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.048], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0478], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0483], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0575], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.0573], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.0573], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.0583], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.0583], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.0576], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.0574], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.0574], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.0571], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0571], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.0571], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.059], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.0586], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.0581], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.0581], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.0576], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.0574], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.0571], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.0571], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.0558], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.0563], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.0567], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.0567], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0574], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0574], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0563], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0563], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0555], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0555], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0555], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0555], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0555], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.0557], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.0557], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.0561], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0625], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0623], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0623], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0623], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0602], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0602], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0598], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0589], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0591], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0591], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0591], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0589], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0543], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0543], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0543], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0523], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0527], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0527], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0532], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0532], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0507], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.0507], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.0505], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.0495], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.0505], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.0511], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.0527], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.0527], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.0518], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.0547], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.0547], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.0547], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0546], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0533], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.0533], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.0528], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.0526], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.0526], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.0524], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.0524], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.0524], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.0522], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.0522], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.0522], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0517], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0515], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0515], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0515], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.0513], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.0513], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.0513], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.0513], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.0513], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.0517], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.0517], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0513], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0511], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0511], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0509], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0509], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0509], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0509], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0507], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0496], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0485], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0476], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0476], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0474], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0472], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0472], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.047], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0465], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.0389], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.0389], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.0389], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.0367], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.0367], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.0365], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.0365], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.0339], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.0337], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.0337], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0337], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0328], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0328], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0328], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0321], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0321], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0317], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0315], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0306], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0304], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0304], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0304], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0391], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0389], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0381], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0381], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0379], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0377], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.0377], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.0377], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.024], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.024], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.024], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.024], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.0213], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.021], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.021], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.0206], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0204], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0196], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0194], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0194], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0194], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0108], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0108], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0106], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0106], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0104], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0104], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.0098], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.0096], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.0096], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.0096], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.0094], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.0096], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.0096], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.0096], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.0096]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/16/7407196/\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/romanian-cargo-ship-falls-victim-121500997.html\", \"https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-warns-poland-attack-belarus-russia/\", \"https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/2/7413853/\", \"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50090.htm\", \"https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-belarus-helicopters-entered-polish-airspace-provocation-onet-report/\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO%E2%80%93Russia_relations#Rising_tensions,_suspension_of_cooperation,_sanctions_(2014%E2%80%932021\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lublin_Triangle\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham\", \"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-aims-offer-military-training-inside-ukraine-minister-says-2023-09-30/\", \"https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/nato-frmrchief-poland-baltics-forces-ukraine\", \"https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/07/nato-members-may-send-troops-to-ukraine-warns-former-alliance-chief\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/poland-deploys-attack-helicopters-border-141900475.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2921", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Fears remain that Russia may again invade the north of Ukraine via a renuclearized Belarus that is now providing sanctuary to the Wagner Group (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-prigozhin-wagner-belarus-ed3af6c3985242e69b07b6f9494cf117\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/06/25/Ukrainian-commander-on-possible-Wagner-attack-from-Belarus-Nothing-but-suicide-\" target=\"_blank\">Al-Arabiya</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-alexander-lukashenko-mistake-not-invade-ukraine-russia-2014-vladimir-putin/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://eng.belta.by/president/view/belarus-to-work-out-procedure-for-using-tactical-nukes-in-face-of-aggression-159891-2023/\" target=\"_blank\">Belta</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href=\"https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375\" target=\"_blank\">ISW</a>). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, \"Claimed Russian Control\" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but \"Assessed Russian Advance\" and \"Assessed Russian Control\" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-11-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-30\", 0.0], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.03], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.2225], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.188], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1683], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.18], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.2075], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1956], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.181], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1709], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1567], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1577], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1479], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1473], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1381], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.1318], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1329], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1312], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1339], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1268], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.124], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1186], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1145], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1174], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1146], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1124], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1085], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.1085], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1078], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1067], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1243], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1279], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1243], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1203], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1166], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.1159], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.1285], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.1262], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.1268], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.1279], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.1263], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.1228], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.1222], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.1189], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.0955], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.0926], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.0996], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.1014], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.103], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0981], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0956], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.1029], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0988], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0988], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0948], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0931], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.093], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0992], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.0954], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.071], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.0686], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0705], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0677], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0659], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0757], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0738], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0738], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0738], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0724], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0705], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.069], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.0695], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.0633], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.0633], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.0609], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.0614], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.0614], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.0609], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.0577], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.0614], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.0591], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.0559], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.0555], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.0555], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.0555], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.0552], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.0587], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.0587], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.0583], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.0575], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.0638], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.0629], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.0629], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.0616], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.0564], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.0564], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.058], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.0504], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.0544], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.0556], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.0584], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.0573], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.0577], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.0573], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.0804], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0773], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0762], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0758], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0769], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0765], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.0788], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.0785], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.0777], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0792], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0808], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0808], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0685], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0673], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0673], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0669], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0681], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0681], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0665], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.0638], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.0631], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0612], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0612], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0542], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0531], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0531], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0515], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0615], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0607], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0626], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0622], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.0615], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.0615], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.0581], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.0581], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0581], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.057], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0568], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0561], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0557], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0546], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.0536], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.0536], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.0532], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.0321], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.0318], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.0318], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.0318], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.0293], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.0296], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.0293], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.0283], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.0272], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.0252], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.0262], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.0262], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.0248], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.0252], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.0252], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.0245], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0233], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0233], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0242], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.0239], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.0171], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.0184], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.0184], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.0181], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.0177], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0177], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0174], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0174], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0174], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0174], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.0169], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.0169], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.0166], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.0163], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.0163], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.0166], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.0166], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.0169], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.0163], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.0156], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0125], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0122], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0122], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0122], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0119], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0116], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.0113], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.0106], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0097], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0097], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.0097], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0063], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0056], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0053], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0053], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0053], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0053], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0047], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0047], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0047], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0031], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0031], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0028], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0028], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0019], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0016], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0016], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0015], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0015], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0021], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0018], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.0018], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.0021], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.0021], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.0021], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.0021], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.0021], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.0021], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0021], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.0015]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/30/russia-ukraine-live-hrw-says-kyiv-used-banned-landmines\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66249551\", \"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/belarus-false-flag-ukraine-russia-b2387801.html\", \"https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14-2023\", \"https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-aleksander-lukashenko-improve-relations-poland/\", \"https://www.newsweek.com/tensions-simmer-between-poland-belarus-after-incursion-reported-1824178\", \"https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-group-prigozhin-mutiny-shoigu-belarus-update-1810416\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements\", \"https://kyivindependent.com/official-number-of-russian-troops-in-belarus-decreases-to-around-4-000/\", \"https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20451\"]"}, {"question": "Will federal legislation waiving Section 230 immunity with regard to the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) become law before 12 January 2024?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2918", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>The US Congress is considering various measures to regulate the growth and use of AI, including waiving immunity under Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 for generative AI (<a href=\"https://www.axios.com/2023/06/14/hawley-blumenthal-bill-section-230-ai\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-06-14/bipartisan-u-s-bill-would-end-section-230-immunity-for-generative-ai\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-blumenthal-introduce-bipartisan-legislation-protect-consumers-and-deny-ai-companies-section#\" target=\"_blank\">Senate.gov - Josh Hawley</a>). Section 230 is a statute that protects social media and other companies from liability for content their users post (<a href=\"https://www.theverge.com/21273768/section-230-explained-internet-speech-law-definition-guide-free-moderation\" target=\"_blank\">The Verge</a>, <a href=\"https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-230-an-expert-on-internet-law-and-regulation-explains-the-legislation-that-paved-the-way-for-facebook-google-and-twitter-164993\" target=\"_blank\">The Conversation</a>, <a href=\"https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230\" target=\"_blank\">Cornell</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-23", "date_close": "2024-01-12", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-23\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.0133], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.0086], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.0088], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.0078], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.087], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.0733], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.0831], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.0807], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.0853], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.09], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.0907], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.1007], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.1013], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.1007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.1154], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.0655], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.056], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.057], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.061], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.059], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.0627], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.0627], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0755], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.0775], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0792], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.0792], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.0675], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.0675], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.0633], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.0608], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.1008], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.0862], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.0885], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.0923], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0923], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0923], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0923], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0769], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0762], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.0714], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.0714], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0657], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0629], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0614], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.0614], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0614], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0614], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0614], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0293], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0293], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0236], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0221], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0214], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.0187], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.0187], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0173], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0087], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0087], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.0093], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0093], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.0093], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.0093], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.0087], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0087], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.008], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0073], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0073], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0073], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0073], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0073], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.0073], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.0053], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.0056], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0056], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0056], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.0056], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.0056], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0063], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0044], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.0044], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0044], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0044], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0044], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.0094], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.0094], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0094], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0089], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0089], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.0089], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.0089], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.0089], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.0083], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.0083], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0132], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.0132], [\"2024-01-12\", 0.0132]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://prime-writing.com/custom-papers-to-buy.php\", \"https://www.writinkservices.com/nr-621-literature-review/\", \"https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-rise-and-importance-of-secret?utm_source=url\", \"https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics\", \"https://sendwishonline.com/en/group-cards/sympathy\", \"https://www.csis.org/analysis/sen-chuck-schumer-launches-safe-innovation-ai-age-csis\", \"https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/02/shadow-congress-bipartisan-deals/622871/\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/01/16/almost-none-of-the-bills-introduced-into-congress-ever-becomes-a-law/\"]"}, {"question": "Before 1 November 2023, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and/or law enforcement of entering Kosovo without authorization?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2898", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Violence in Kosovo escalated in late May 2023 as Serb protesters clashed with NATO's KFOR peacekeeping forces while Serbia has put its forces on high alert amid domestic political protests of its own (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-tension-eu-us-cf2637072cd88f3bcf0d902236d3631b\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65725001\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://jfcnaples.nato.int/kfor/media-center/archive/news/2023/kfor-update-on-unprovoked-attacks-in-zvecan\" target=\"_blank\">NATO - KFOR</a>, <a href=\"https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/vucic-resigns-as-head-of-party-as-anti-government-anti-violence-protests-continue/\" target=\"_blank\">EURACTIV</a>). Serbia requested to deploy forces in December 2022, but KFOR declined (<a href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-denies-serbia-request-deploy-military-kosovo-aleksandar-vucic/\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-02", "date_close": "2023-11-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-02\", 0.8], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.44], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.2933], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.465], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.392], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.3467], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.3329], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.3663], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.4356], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.392], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.3745], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.3609], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.34], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.3292], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.3093], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.3079], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.2973], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.2788], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.2813], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.3235], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.3182], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.3153], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.3033], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.3053], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.289], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.2752], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.2723], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.2723], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.2471], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.2047], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.21], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.2219], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.2194], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.224], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.2308], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.1509], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.1482], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.1382], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.2017], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.2175], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.2042], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.1938], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.1931], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.2038], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.2123], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.2108], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.2123], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2115], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2023], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.1946], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.1946], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.1738], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.1731], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1385], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.1314], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.1214], 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0.08], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0744], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0741], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0738], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0726], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0512], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.0482], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.0469], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.0403], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.04]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-builds-up-forces-kosovo-prime-minister-albin-kurti-banjska-tensions-serbia-rise/\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/why-kosovos-standoff-with-serbs-continues-15-years-after-statehood\", \"https://balkaninsight.com/2023/10/09/in-kosovo-clash-new-bullets-and-freshly-repaired-mortars-from-serbia/\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/30/vucic-wants-war-kosovo-pm-accuses-belgrade-of-inciting-violence\", \"https://www.dw.com/en/no-breakthrough-in-latest-round-of-serbia-kosovo-talks/a-66816626\", \"https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/18/eu-usa-violence-vucic-serbia-kosovo/\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/30/europe/kosovo-tensions-military-buid-up-explainer-intl/index.html\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/29/nato-says-it-has-authorized-bolstering-of-forces-for-kosovo\", \"https://twitter.com/AeraofWars/status/1706011479689097531\", \"https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-dialogue-tensions-eu-us-eda7a7e4114b9f4005d218d34f5a9912\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/3/are-kosovo-and-serbia-on-the-brink-of-war\", \"https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-tension-eu-us-cf2637072cd88f3bcf0d902236d3631b\", \"https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-kfor-nato-tension-border-kurti-bf141c89dfd3a70dfa4a0c9efac9acb9\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/17/kosovo-serbia-leaders-talks-diplomacy\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/92e0416b-046a-47dd-a785-07091e63277a\", \"https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkamxy/kosovo-serbia-war-mitrovica-banjska-monastery-siege\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Force\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/30/world/europe/kosovo-serbia-troops-nato.html\", \"https://www.voanews.com/a/serbia-reduces-army-presence-near-kosovo-after-us-expressed-concern-/7293876.html\", \"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_216071.htm\", \"https://www.voanews.com/a/us-warns-of-large-serbian-military-buildup-near-kosovo-/7291193.html\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/29/us/politics/white-house-serbia-kosovo.html\", \"https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/kosovo-police-conduct-raids-serb-dominated-north-clashes-103589461\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Security_Force#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Law%20on,based%20on%20strategic%20defense%20reviews\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/european-leaders-urge-serbia-to-de-facto-recognise-kosovo/ar-AA1iYjCs\"]"}, {"question": "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) begin trading on a US exchange before 30 December 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2922", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    <p>Attempts to create a bitcoin ETF in the US continue, with asset manager BlackRock making an application with the SEC in June 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/blackrock-files-for-a-spot-bitcoin-etf-7547609\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2023-06-15/blackrock-close-to-filing-for-a-bitcoin-etf-coindesk\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-backed-bitcoin-etfs-174048113.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo</a>). ETFs for bitcoin derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-12-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.35], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.5125], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.515], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.5175], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.444], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.444], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.3833], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.3643], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.3629], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.3163], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.2811], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.253], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.231], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.2327], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.2267], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.2175], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.2569], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.2393], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.2386], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.2227], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.2173], [\"2023-07-03\", 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\"https://www.boerse-online.de/nachrichten/fonds/bitcoin-hammer-etf-auf-bitcoin-genehmigt-kurs-mit-krassen-spruengen-20341241.html\", \"https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etf-approval-window-sec-bloomberg-analysts\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Gensler\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/whats-stake-grayscales-spot-bitcoin-etf-case-against-sec-2023-08-29/\", \"https://blockworks.co/news/sec-delays-bitcoin-etfs-valkyrie-blackrock\", \"https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66681951/1218533001/grayscale-investments-llc-v-sec/\", \"https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/07/04/coinbase-suddenly-surges-after-reports-suggest-sec-is-poised-to-make-a-game-changing-decision-that-could-play-havoc-with-the-price-of-bitcoin-ethereum-bnb-and-xrp/?sh=234e2f061633\", \"https://www.heise.de/downloads/18/4/2/9/4/0/0/2/22-1142-2014527.pdf\", \"https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/grayscale-wins-lawsuit-against-sec-over-bitcoin-etf-1b305cfa?mod=hp_lead_pos6\", \"https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1713910892197249122\", \"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoin-tops-%2431000-blackrock-lists-ishares-bitcoin-trust:-will-institutional-investors\", \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/partnering-with-coinbase-could-hinder-bid-bitcoin-etf-approval-2023-07-13/\", \"https://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/devisen/bitcoin-preis-steigt-auf-35-000-dollar-nachdem-bitcoin-etf-ishares-von-blackrock-auf-der-dtcc-website-gelistet-wird-1032731135\", \"https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66681951/1218477074/grayscale-investments-llc-v-sec/\", \"https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66681951/1218460857/grayscale-investments-llc-v-sec/\", \"https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/10/10/sec-actively-engaging-with-spot-bitcoin-etf-issuers-signals-high-likelihood-of-year-end-approval/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/legal/court-set-hear-arguments-grayscales-lawsuit-against-sec-over-bitcoin-fund-2023-03-07/\", \"https://cointelegraph.com/news/spot-bitcoin-etf-january-approvals-possible-analysts\", \"https://cryptopotato.com/sec-holds-back-from-appealing-court-decision-on-grayscale-bitcoin-etf-report/\"]"}, {"question": "Between 9 June 2023 and 29 September 2023, will shares of Alphabet (Google) outperform shares of Microsoft?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2904", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>As the race to develop artificial intelligence heats up, both Alphabet and Microsoft are vying for position (<a href=\"https://observer.com/2023/04/google-microsofts-ceo-ai-progress/\" target=\"_blank\">Observer</a>, <a href=\"https://nypost.com/2023/05/10/google-integrates-more-ai-into-products-in-battle-with-microsoft/\" target=\"_blank\">NY Post</a>). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (<a href=\"https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOGL:NASDAQ?window=6M\" target=\"_blank\">Google Finance - Alphabet</a>, Class A shares, <a href=\"https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ\" target=\"_blank\">Google Finance - Microsoft</a>). The closing values of each stock for 29 September 2023 will be divided by their respective closing values for 9 June 2023 to determine the performance, or percentage change. The difference in percentage points of each calculation will determine the resolution. In the event of an exact tie, the stock with the greater percentage increase at any point between the close on 9 June 2023 to the close on 29 September 2023 would be deemed the outperformer. In the event that a company splits its shares, the price of shares will be adjusted accordingly (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia - Stock Split</a>).</p><p><i>This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click <a href=\"https://goodjudgment.com/ubs/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> for more details.</i></p>", "date_begin": "2023-06-09", "date_close": "2023-09-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.52], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.3467], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.2925], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.324], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.3886], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.4025], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.3933], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.454], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.457], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.4609], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.4725], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.4892], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5291], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.547], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.4973], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5509], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.501], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.486], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.43], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.4373], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.4017], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.4269], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.4125], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.4038], 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[\"2023-09-16\", 0.8693], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.8693], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.871], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.8717], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.8703], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.871], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.8637], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.8573], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.8797], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.8793], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.8797], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.881], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.8823], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.8823], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.8845], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8852], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8848], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8913], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8913], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8919], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8945], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.9026], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.9026], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.9106], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9106], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9116], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9119], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.9145], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9145], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9145], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9148], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9148], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9152], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.91], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9131], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9069], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9116], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.8803], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.8803], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.8809], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.8845], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.8906], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.8906], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.8912], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.8915], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.8915]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/alphabet-stock-up-after-better-than-expected-earnings.html\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-30/us-inflation-cools-spending-stagnates-as-economy-loses-steam\", \"https://www.newsday.com/business/google-rebounds-from-unprecedented-drop-in-ad-drop-with-a-resurgence-that-pushes-tock-higher-kb9deud5\", \"https://www.aol.com/finance/microsoft-earnings-preview-focus-cloud-134041612.html\", \"https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1672231319005282305?s=20\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/microsoft-stock-falls-as-analysts-digest-a-delayed-ai-ramp.html\", \"https://www.androidpolice.com/alphabet-new-antitrust-lawsuit-google-ads/\", \"https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/03/16/introducing-microsoft-365-copilot-your-copilot-for-work\", \"https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/MSFT/GOOG\", \"https://www.investing.com/analysis/microsoft-vs-alphabet-postearnings-showdown-cloud-ai-to-shape-h2-performance-200640378\", \"https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/google-facts/#conclusion\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/26/tech/google-antitrust/index.html\", \"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3989688-microsofts-generative-ai-push-revenue-tidal-wave-tech-giant\", \"https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Advertising_Revenue_Report_2022.pdf\", \"https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/\", \"https://www.hartfordfunds.com/insights/market-perspectives/equity/the-power-of-dividends.html\", \"https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-the-us-these-are-the-companies-making-cuts-2023?r=US&amp;IR=T#dropbox-16-of-staff-12\", \"https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share\", \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/alphabet-shares-soar-after-it-expands-ai-chatbot-internationally-2023-07-13/\", \"https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOGL:NASDAQ?comparison=NASDAQ%3AMSFT&amp;window=YTD\", \"https://www.statista.com/statistics/216573/worldwide-market-share-of-search-engines/\", \"https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-google-monopolizing-digital-advertising-technologies\", \"https://www.swingtradesystems.com/trading-days-calendars.html\", \"https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/microsoft-facts/#conclusion\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Harvard Crimson defeat the Yale Bulldogs in \"The Game\" in 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3098", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>The 139th playing of \"The Game,\" the annual college football game between the Harvard Crimson and Yale Bulldogs, is scheduled to take place at Yale Bowl Stadium on Saturday 18 November 2023 (<a href=\"https://alumni.harvard.edu/harvard-yale\" target=\"_blank\">Harvard Alumni</a>). Yale leads Harvard in wins since 1875 with an all-time record of 69-61-8 (<a href=\"https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-10-15/harvard-yale-football-memorable-moments-all-time-history\" target=\"_blank\">NCAA</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-11-07", "date_close": "2023-11-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-08\", 1.0], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.8167], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.8533], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.722], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6833], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6857], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6813], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6667], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6373], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6133], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6123], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6393], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6433], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6433], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.578], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.5706], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.5653], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.5672], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.5617], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.5553], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.5553], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.555], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.5286], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5386], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5413], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5188], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.532], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5346], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5426], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5304], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5369], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5373], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5426], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5428], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5385], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5432], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5444], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5406], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5531], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.557], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5608], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5631], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.5665], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.56], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.5411], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.5453], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.5526], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.552], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.5819], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.5985], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.6236], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.6256], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.6126], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.6336], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.6282], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.651], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.6485], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6652], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6645], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6639], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6571], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6708], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6604], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6627], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6658], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6508], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.656], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6628], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6631], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6669], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.677], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6752], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6779], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6752], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.689], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6936], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6893], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6897], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6867], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.6887], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.6903], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.6981], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.7026], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.7022], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.7075], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.6997], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.7027], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.7073], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.6997], [\"2023-11-15\", 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[\"2023-11-17\", 0.6233], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.6255], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.6133], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.6133]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.kolotv.com/sports/betting/2023/11/11/ivy-league-power-rankings-week-11-harvard/\", \"https://www.google.com/search?q=yale+football+record&amp;rlz=1C1ONGR_enID1012ID1012&amp;oq=yale+football+recor&amp;gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqDAgAEAAYFBiHAhiABDIMCAAQABgUGIcCGIAEMgwIARAAGBQYhwIYgAQyBwgCEAAYgAQyBggDEEUYOTIHCAQQABiABDIICAUQABgWGB4yCAgGEAAYFhgeMggIBxAAGBYYHjIICAgQABgWGB4yCAgJEAAYFhgeqAIAsAIA&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;ie=UTF-8\", \"https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/19812/mirror-mirror-on-the-wall-how-do-forecasters-fare-by-their-own-call/\", \"https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/ivy-league/scores\", \"https://www.warrennolan.com/fcs/2023/predict-winners?type1=Saturday,%20November%2018&amp;type2=FCS%20Top%2025&amp;date=2023-11-18\", \"https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/108\", \"https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf-game/harvard-yale-score-odds-november-20-2021/105074\", \"https://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa-football-predictions/6a570c55-ff95-5d75-b1db-6b83d31050af#scroll-spread\", \"https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-10-15/harvard-yale-football-memorable-moments-all-time-history\", \"https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2023/11/17/football-team-150-prepares-for-the-game/\", \"https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/11/16/harvard-chasing-ivy-title-in-showdown-with-yale/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard%E2%80%93Yale_football_rivalry#:~:text=He%20will%20get%20hurt.%22,more%20often%20than%20Harvard%2DYale\", \"https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/article/yale-at-harvard-odds-tips-and-betting-trends/\", \"https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/harvard-vs-yale-prediction-odds-2023-college-basketball-picks-feb-3-best-bets-from-proven-model/amp/\", \"https://www.westernmassnews.com/sports/betting/2023/11/18/harvard-yale-college-football-picks-predictions/\", \"https://www.westernmassnews.com/sports/betting/2023/11/11/harvard-pennsylvania-college-football-picks-predictions/\", \"https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/16/sports/harvard-yale-game/\", \"https://www.warrennolan.com/fcs/2023/predict-winners?type1=Saturday,%20November%2018&amp;amp;type2=FCS%20Top%2025&amp;amp;date=2023-11-18\", \"https://www.wfsb.com/sports/betting/2023/11/11/yale-princeton-college-football-picks-predictions/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard%E2%80%93Yale_football_rivalry\", \"https://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa-football-predictions/6a570c55-ff95-5d75-b1db-6b83d31050af\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard%E2%80%93Yale_football_rivalry#Game_results\", \"https://gocrimson.com/news/2023/11/13/footballs-craig-named-ivy-league-offensive-player-of-the-week.aspx\", \"https://www.espn.com/college-football/standings/_/group/22/view/fcs-i-aa\", \"https://yalebulldogs.com/sports/football/opponent-history/harvard-university/20\"]"}, {"question": "Before 9 April 2024, will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge a hostage/prisoner exchange with a group holding one or more Israelis captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3057", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    <p>Hamas, the de facto ruler of the Gaza Strip, has reportedly taken over 100 Israelis hostage during its attack on southern Israel in October 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/08/hamas-taken-israeli-hostages-into-gaza\" target=\"_blank\">Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/hamas-israel-hostage-attack-us-palestinian-rcna119375\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>). The exchange of persons must be completed to count, though it need not involve all captured Israelis. Releasing persons to third parties, including the transfer of jailed prisoners to other countries, in accordance with an agreement would count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-10-08", "date_close": "2023-11-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-09\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.55], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.3967], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4725], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.488], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4317], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5129], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5738], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5988], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5433], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.504], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5173], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5108], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5421], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5593], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5631], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5613], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5476], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5547], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5553], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5524], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5772], 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[\"2023-10-21\", 0.4386], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.4591], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.4614], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.4523], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.4773], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.4923], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.4918], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.4941], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.4782], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4652], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4617], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4804], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4604], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4613], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4646], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4642], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4383], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4267], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3938], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3854], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3854], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3854], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3729], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3771], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3733], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3729], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3625], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3668], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3528], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.3368], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.3408], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.3248], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.3296], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.3244], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.3368], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.354], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.358], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.326], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3376], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.3336], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.3336], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.3304], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.3056], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.3196], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.3352], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.3352], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.338], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.3456], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.3554], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.3669], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.3769], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.3769], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.3785], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.3746], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.3762], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.3715], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.3715], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.3696], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.3831], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.3846], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.3869], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3869], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3862], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3908], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3896], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.3896], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.3808], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.3738], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.3988], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.4092], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.4381], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.4335], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.4335], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.4304], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.4292], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.4315], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.4165], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.4165], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.4181], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.4322], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.433], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.4389], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.4452], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.4452], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.4533], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.4359], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.4381], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.4452], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.4337], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.4574], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.4674], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.4707], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.4856], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.5022], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.5204], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.5289], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.5567], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.56], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.5693], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.5707], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.5896], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6196], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6233], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6381], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6437], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6511], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6663], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6764], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6818], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.685], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.7132], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.7311], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.7468], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.7471], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.7489], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.7768], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.7911], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.7964], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.8164], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.8196], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.8211], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.8239], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.8361], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.8543], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.8721], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.8954], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.8961], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.8961]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-hostages-cease-fire-agreement-netanyahu-cabinet-meeting/\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/30/hamas-gaza-hostages-mossad-barnea-war-israel\", \"https://www.firstpost.com/world/hamas-chief-says-no-prisoner-exchange-before-the-end-of-war-13229982.html\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/8/why-are-so-many-palestinian-prisoners-in-israeli-jails\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/22/middleeast/israel-approves-hamas-hostage-deal-intl/index.html\", \"https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-interested-in-prisoner-swap-deal-israeli-media-claims/3050169#\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-hostage-deal.html\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/22/middleeast/israel-approves-hamas-hostage-deal-intl/index.html\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-releases-two-hostages-american-mother-and-daughter-judith-and-natalie-raanan/\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/24/middleeast/hostage-release-gaza-israel-hamas-truce-intl-hnk/index.html\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/10/hamas-says-will-kill-hostages-if-israeli-attacks-on-gaza-civilians-continue\", \"https://www.denverpost.com/2009/06/23/freeing-of-hamas-leader-stirs-talk-of-prisoner-swap/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-war-ed6875f15ea0d2bc196e4033b54b7194\", \"https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rjmjp2sqt\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-releases-two-us-hostages-for-humanitarian-reasons-response-qatari-efforts-2023-10-20/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/white-house-says-israel-hamas-hostage-deal-closer-than-before-2023-11-21/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-ceasefire-what-to-know-af1cfbc9dcaa1485ed7a9efaca7ec2b7\", \"https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c42bccea-67ab-11ee-a4e7-0fb10af55688?shareToken=b4a4cf3d6178528c49ac938fedeefdd1\", \"https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=p6Mfq7z_vHc&amp;si=_ZfNyE4f4f1REo_h\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/11/21/israel-hamas-hostage-ceasefire-deal-imminent\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-renews-call-gazans-flee-key-southern-city-2023-11-17/\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/11/07/1210775385/israel-hamas-gaza-hostages-prisoner-exchange\", \"https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201018-remembering-israels-gilad-shalit-prisoner-swap-deal/\", \"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip-2023-11-21?wsj_native_webview=android&amp;ace_environment=androidphone%2Cwebview&amp;ace_config=%7B%22wsj%22%3A%7B%22djcmp%22%3A%7B%22propertyHref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwsj.android.app%22%7D%7D%7D&amp;ns=prod/accounts-wsj\", \"https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201018-\"]"}, {"question": "Will the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected with votes from both Republicans and Democrats?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3068", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    <p>Republicans in the House of Representatives are looking at various paths forward to elect a new Speaker of the House (<a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4257076-jeffries-says-informal-conversations-taking-place-for-bipartisan-solution-to-speakership/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/politics/house-speaker-fight-jim-jordan/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). Only one or more representatives from each party must vote for the winner of next Speaker to count. If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.98], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.54], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4767], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.3575], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.294], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2917], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3111], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3955], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3667], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3615], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3592], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3371], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3407], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.326], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3106], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2953], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2928], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2826], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2775], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2738], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2705], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2596], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2565], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2871], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2871], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2856], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2958], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2885], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2885], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2818], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2818], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2468], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2539], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2793], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2703], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2713], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2648], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2597], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2645], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.263], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2609], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2682], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2606], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2546], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.254], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2626], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2723], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2746], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2683], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2719], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2839], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2897], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2932], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.293], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2908], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2908], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2908], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2935], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2895], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2892], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2897], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2903], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2866], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2866], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2933], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2885], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2939], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2821], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2905], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2942], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2583], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2458], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.241], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2542], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2556], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2604], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2528], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2383], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2708], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2717], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2782], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2567], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2594], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2583], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2589], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2528], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2517], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2511], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2539], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2539], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2678], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2542], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2458], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.2453], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.2468], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.2347], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.2353], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.2468], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.2758], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2742], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2663], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2637], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2453], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2347], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2389], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1953], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1821], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1821]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/jim-jordan-steve-scalise-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-house/story?id=103861244\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/19/jim-jordan-wont-be-next-speaker/\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/16/jim-jordan-house-speaker-endorsements\", \"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-democrats-gops-speaker-candidate/story?id=104254572\", \"https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1712648371364635067?t=l8CjS2FH5rIILvLNDjYskw&amp;s=19\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathaniel_P._Banks#Congress\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/politics/jordan-speaker-vote-house-floor/index.html\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/us/politics/jordan-speakership-holdouts.html\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jordan-pledges-to-bring-all-republicans-together-in-letter-to-house-gop-on-eve-of-speaker-election/ar-AA1ij95M\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_Party_System\"]"}, {"question": "Will the US civilian labor force participation rate be higher in December 2023 than it was in October 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2981", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>The labor force participation rate has been trending down since the beginning of the 21st century (<a href=\"https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/august/how-far-is-labor-force-participation-from-its-trend/\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco</a>, <a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/participationrate.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once figures for December 2023 are first released, expected in January 2024 (<a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART\" target=\"_blank\">FRED</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-08-17", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-18\", 0.98], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.78], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.52], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.515], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.532], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5267], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5283], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5417], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5786], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6063], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6075], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6067], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.602], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5955], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5833], 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"resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    <p>As the 2024 election cycle approaches, there are calls to consider whether Donald Trump is barred from the office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution due to actions on 6 January 2021 in Washington, DC (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/14th-amendment-section-3-new-legal-battle-trump/story?id=102547316\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-supporters-flood-nh-election-office-calls-false-claims-ballot-ac-rcna102252\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/25/14th-amendment-insurrection-00112777\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>). Section 3 states that no person who held federal or state office who \"engaged in insurrection or rebellion\" against the US can hold any federal or state office (<a href=\"https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxiv\" target=\"_blank\">Cornell</a>). Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement are immaterial. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state, and a ruling in either a state or federal court would count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-09-01", "date_close": "2023-12-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-01\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.3717], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.465], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.462], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.4142], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.4015], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.4353], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.4082], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3837], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.422], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.4076], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3765], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3642], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3632], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3624], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.353], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3474], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.335], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3534], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3597], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3788], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3957], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3731], 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\"https://www.reuters.com/legal/colorado-judges-allows-trump-primary-ballot-delays-decision-general-election-2023-11-18/\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/14th-amendment-cases-challenging-trump-eligibility-courts-unknown/\", \"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/15/maine-14th-amendment-trump-00132136\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/colorado-secretary-state-appeals-trump-ballot-ruling-colorado-supreme-court/\", \"https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/colorado-trump-14th-amendment-12-06-23/index.html\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/legal-experts-warn-trump-hyped-140357307.html\", \"https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/2023/11/27/trump-keeps-right-to-be-on-presidential-ballot-in-ri/71720185007/\", \"https://www.theusconstitution.org/blog/responding-to-mukasey-the-president-is-an-officer-under-section-3-of-the-fourteenth-amendment/\", \"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/constitutional-scholar-discusses-legal-battle-surrounding-trumps-ballot-eligibility\", \"https://webstersdictionary1828.com/\", \"https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/11/17/trump-cant-be-disqualified-from-colorado-ballot-under-14th-amendment-judge-rules/?sh=7b62eee12c58\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/17/politics/trump-colorado-ballot-14th-amendment-insurrection/index.html\", \"https://www.themainewire.com/2023/12/heres-what-happened-during-fridays-eight-hour-hearing-on-fmr-pres-trumps-ability-to-appear-on-maines-2024-primary-ballot/\", \"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/georgia-election-worker-tearfully-describes-fleeing-her-home-after-giulianis-false-claims-of-fraud\", \"https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/4318515-a-colorado-court-makes-it-official-trump-is-an-insurrectionist/\", \"https://lite.cnn.com/2023/11/21/politics/trump-critics-appeal-colorado-ruling/index.html\", \"https://lite.cnn.com/2023/11/18/politics/takeaways-from-the-blockbuster-trump-insurrectionist-ban-ruling/index.html\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/21/trump-appeals-january-6-ruling-colorado\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/12/06/colorado-supreme-court-trump-2024-ballot-lawsuit\", \"https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1737248992541524434\", \"https://coloradonewsline.com/briefs/colorado-supreme-court-trump/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 8 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2939", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Fighting over the ruins of the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region continues (<a href=\"https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-pushes-to-reclaim-bakhmut-fighting-on-fallen-city-s-flanks/ar-AA1dCtpu\" target=\"_blank\">MSN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/10/chechen-leaders-special-forces-deployed-in-ukraines-bakhmut-a81790\" target=\"_blank\">Moscow Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-counter-offensive-latest-updates-bakhmut-1811940\" target=\"_blank\">Newsweek</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href=\"https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375\" target=\"_blank\">ISW</a>). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution, and whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial. \"Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\" would count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-07-12", "date_close": "2023-08-08", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-18\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.195], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.4533], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.3875], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.3333], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.3143], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.2813], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.3311], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.298], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.2836], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2642], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2654], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2643], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2467], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2313], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2471], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2339], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2268], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2425], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2395], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2336], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2278], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2217], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.2136], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.2112], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.2148], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.2179], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.2219], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.2154], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.2124], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.2247], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.2273], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.2313], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.1457], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.1343], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.1343], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.1371], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.1321], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.1279], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1286], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1027], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1093], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.108], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1425], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1263], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1229], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1179], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.117], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1233], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1186], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.117], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.1135], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1161], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1457], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1417], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1364], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1336], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1285], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1342], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1323], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1319], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1518], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1638], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1647], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1732], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1725], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1718], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1726], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1763], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1742], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1738], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1771], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.1808], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.1866], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.1863], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.1833], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.1813], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.1768], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.1692], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.1692], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1764], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1718], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1724], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1749], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1776], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1722], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1679], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.1794], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.1645], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.1811], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.1771], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.1611], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1575], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1593], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1486], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1421], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1361], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1293], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.129], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1224], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1193], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1141], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1128], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1052], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1047], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.123], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.122], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1233], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1217], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1207], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1207], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1177], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1187], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1216], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1245], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1306], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.1294], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.1258], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.1229], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.1242], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.1235], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.1213], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.1171], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.1168], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.1152], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1152], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1139], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1106], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1103], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1135], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1084], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1081], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1065], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1094], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1059], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1025], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1022], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0997], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1009], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0997], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0991], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0972], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0975], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0834], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0809], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0709], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0638], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0613], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0603], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0556], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0553], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.0522], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.0416], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.0416], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.0403], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0394], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0391], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0369], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0369], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0366], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0341], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0313], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0318], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0312], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0309], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0309], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0576], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.0548], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0535], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0529], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0524], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0524], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0509], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0494], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0481], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0462], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0462], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0449], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0443], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0438], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0432], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0426], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0425], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0416], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0405], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0395], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0316], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0311], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0317], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0314], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0305], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0303], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.0297], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.029], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0338], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0295], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.029], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0285], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0283], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0281], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0281]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://worldcrunch.com/focus/russian-counteroffensive\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/kremlin%E2%80%99s-pyrrhic-victory-bakhmut-retrospective-battle-bakhmut\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut\", \"https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-bakhmut-drone-footage-ambush-donetsk-russia-1815239\", \"https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/the-era-of-urban-warfare-is-already-here/\", \"https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20July%2026%2C2023.png\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-armed-forces-continue-advance-112400587.html\", \"https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/10/chechen-leaders-special-forces-deployed-in-ukraines-bakhmut-a81790\", \"https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/17/ukraine-war-drone-attack-on-black-sea-fleet-crimea-bridge-explosion-reports-cluster-bomb-t\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/ukrainian-forces-appear-to-advance-closer-to-bakhmut\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-aims-retake-ground-by-bakhmut-russia-says-it-repelled-attacks-2023-08-04/\", \"https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/zooming-out-on-ukraines-offensive/\", \"https://militaryland.net/maps/russian-invasion/bakhmut-city/\"]"}, {"question": "Will \"Barbie\" win more Golden Globes than \"Oppenheimer?\"", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3177", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Barbie received the most Golden Globe nominations for 2024 with nine (three in the same category of Best Original Song - Motion Picture), and Oppenheimer came in second with eight (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-67646600\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). The awards ceremony is scheduled for 7 January 2024 (<a href=\"https://goldenglobes.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Golden Globes</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-12-21", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-22\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5275], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.492], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4086], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4825], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4333], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4727], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.5083], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.5462], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.5336], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.5513], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.5169], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.5065], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.5117], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.4825], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.597], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.553], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.4364], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.4709], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.4525], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.4177], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.3892], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.3892], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.4131], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.4233], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.4125], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.4118], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.4659], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.4683], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.4594], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.4676], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.4573], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.4519], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.4487], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.432], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.4613], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.4325], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.4275], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.4181], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.4171], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.4118], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.4024], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.3759], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.3717], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3967], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3828], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3905], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.4221], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.401], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.4005], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.415], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.3975], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.3855], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.381], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.3767], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.3571], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.341], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.341], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.3367], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.339], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.3381], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.3452], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.3438], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3438]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://goldenglobes.com/voting-member/\", \"https://www.goldderby.com/article/2024/2024-golden-globes-predictions/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Globe_Awards\"]"}, {"question": "Before 10 November 2023, will the US impose new export restrictions that would prohibit the export of Nvidia's current A800 microchips to Chinese entities or China without a license?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2926", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>The Wall Street Journal reported in late June 2023 that the US was considering imposing new restrictions on the export of microchips used in, among other things, the development of artificial intelligence (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-considers-new-curbs-on-ai-chip-exports-to-china-56b17feb\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-06-27/us-considering-new-restrictions-on-ai-chip-exports-to-china-wsj\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/8/23447886/nvidia-a800-china-chip-ai-research-slowed-down-restrictions\" target=\"_blank\">The Verge</a>). For the purposes of this question, \"Chinese entities\" are those on the \"Entity List\" maintained by the Commerce Department (<a href=\"https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C/part-744/appendix-Supplement%20No.%204%20to%20Part%20744\" target=\"_blank\">Code of Federal Regulations - Entity List</a>, see \"CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF,\" <a href=\"https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/lists-of-parties-of-concern/entity-list\" target=\"_blank\">Bureau of Industry and Security</a>). \"Current A800 microchips\" are those with the specifications laid out here as of the launch of this question: <a href=\"https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-introduces-a800-data-center-gpu-for-china\" target=\"_blank\">VideoCardz</a>. Restrictions would be considered imposed upon the effective date of a rule published by the US government (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file\" target=\"_blank\">Bureau of Industry and Security - Press Release 7 October 2022</a>). An outright ban on the export of A800 microchips to all Chinese firms would count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-07-06", "date_close": "2023-11-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-07\", 0.73], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.8433], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9033], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.8475], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.878], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.8986], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.9113], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.8878], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.864], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.8618], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.8067], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.7831], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.7379], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.7553], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7313], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7588], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7611], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7421], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.745], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.7271], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.7214], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.6904], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.6861], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.6358], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.6154], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.6345], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.6164], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.5483], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.5325], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.5283], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.5185], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.5092], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.4754], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.4664], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.4629], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.4843], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.4986], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.5571], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.5429], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5464], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5636], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5393], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5227], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.516], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5253], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5193], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.506], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.4967], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.4967], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4833], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4688], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4581], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4763], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.4825], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.4669], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.4894], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.49], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.4888], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.4919], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.4906], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5094], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.5219], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.5188], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.5194], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.5225], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.5275], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.5244], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.5181], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.5188], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.5106], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.5256], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.5163], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.5188], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.5044], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.5013], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.5056], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5044], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5212], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.5206], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.4941], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.4882], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.4824], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.4682], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.4741], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.4706], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5029], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5029], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5012], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.4947], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.4888], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.4818], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.4706], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.4665], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.4406], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.435], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.435], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4339], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.4283], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.4211], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.4128], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.41], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.3961], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3906], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.385], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3656], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.345], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3367], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3311], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.355], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.3533], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.3522], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.3083], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.3056], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3047], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.2968], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.2916], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.2779], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.2774], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.2711], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.2689], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.2679], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.2653], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.2568], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2521], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2389], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.2284], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.2263], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.2211], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.2111], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.2216], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2542], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.2595], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.2553], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.2563], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.2432], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.2505], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2563], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2553], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2574], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.2632], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.2605], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2642], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2647], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2768], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.2768], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2805], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.304], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.3055], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.3045], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3195], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2745], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2795], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.279], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.3125], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.336], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.346], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.351], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3635], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.339], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2895], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2345], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.241], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.233], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2245], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2225], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2225], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.196], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.1885], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.182], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1795], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.188], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.183], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.183], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.1815], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.172], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.162], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.162], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.1615], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.1205], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.123], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.1205], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.0975], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.096], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.064], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.0635], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.0635], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.062], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0585], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.0555], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.102], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.1019], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0976], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0976], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0976]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-01/china-curbs-exports-of-drone-equipment/102671444\", \"https://on.ft.com/3S3bZyl\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-planning-face-to-face-meeting-with-biden-xi-washington-post-2023-10-05/\", \"https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.amp.asp?newsIdx=360842\", \"https://swarajyamag.com/tech/chinese-tech-titans-move-to-stockpile-5-billion-of-nvidia-ai-chips-fearing-further-export-restrictions-by-us-this-time-targeting-a800-processors\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/us-bans-export-of-more-ai-chips-including-nvidia-h800-to-china.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-restricts-exports-some-nvidia-chips-middle-east-countries-filing-2023-08-30/\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/aug/31/us-restricts-exports-of-nvidia-ai-chips-to-middle-east\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-08/us-set-to-limit-scope-of-china-investment-ban-with-revenue-rule\", \"https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20231003VL200/china-ic-manufacturing-us-china-chip-war-us.html\", \"https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/10/ai-chip-wars-us-curbs-nvidia-gpu-chip-exports-sooner-than-expected/\", \"https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/27/business/us-commerce-secretary-raimondo-china-visit-intl-hnk/index.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-curbs-chip-tools-china-nearly-finalized-posting-2023-10-05/\", \"https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/everyone-wants-to-talk-to-gina-raimondoeven-china-38629492?mod=djemCapitalJournalDaybreak\", \"https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230828PD202.html\", \"https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20231016VL206/china-ic-manufacturing.html\", \"https://www.wsj.com/world/china/u-s-and-china-take-steps-to-ease-tensions-over-export-control-policies-raimondo-says-1c671436?mod=china_news_article_pos3\", \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/\", \"https://www.semianalysis.com/p/china-ai-and-semiconductors-rise?utm_campaign=email-half-post&amp;r=1miw1h&amp;utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\", \"https://www.theregister.com/2023/07/28/us_china_ai_chip/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-warned-china-expect-updated-export-curbs-october-us-official-2023-10-02/\", \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581023000221/nvda-20231023.htm\", \"https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581023000217/nvda-20231017.htm\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-china-agree-export-controls-information-exchange-2023-08-28/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-says-us-speeded-up-new-export-curbs-ai-chips-2023-10-24/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3170", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/International/houthi-missile-strikes-merchant-ship-red-sea-us/story?id=105570184\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-13/us-warship-shoots-down-houthi-drone-launched-from-yemen-us-official\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67607862\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). \"Stray\" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-12-15", "date_close": "2024-01-12", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.675], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.7833], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.8375], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.8083], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.7357], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7688], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7944], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.775], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7645], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7475], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.7475], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.7477], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.7121], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.7113], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.7231], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.7047], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.6956], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.6988], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.7144], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.7312], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.7239], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.6769], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.6831], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.6453], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.6482], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.6583], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.6156], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.6376], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.6411], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.6482], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.6456], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.6379], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.606], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.611], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.614], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.6205], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.6286], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.5832], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.5633], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.5776], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.559], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.559], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5642], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5555], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5505], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5529], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.5347], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.5044], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.5356], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.575], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5559], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5488], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5183], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5294], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5016], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5221], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.5611], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.5626], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.5632], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.5725], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.5725], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.565], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.575], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.5575], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.5355], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5386], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5057], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5236], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5009], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5009], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5241], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5032], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5059], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.4864], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5073], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5109], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5223], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5282], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5455], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5409], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5545], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5795], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5886], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5727], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5609], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6039], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.5829], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.5958], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.5925], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.5925], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.5967], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.5958], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6044], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.614], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6288], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6292], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.6312], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.6219], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.6258], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.6281], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.6615], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.6642], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.6738], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.67], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.6758], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.7042], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.7042], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.7085], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.7115], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.7133], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.7167], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.7407], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.75], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.75], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.75], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.7225], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.7225], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7143], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7032], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7061], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7043], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6986], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6914], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6762], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6693], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6641], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.6603], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.6603], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.6617], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.6634], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.6745], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.679], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.6852], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.6869], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.6852], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.6945], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.7014], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.7066], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.7083], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.7083], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.7134], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6963], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.684], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6507], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6516], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6694], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.671], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6613], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6613], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6629], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.671], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6788], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6803], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6872], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6975], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.7038], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.7256], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.7281], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.7297], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.7306], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.7341], [\"2024-01-12\", 0.7397], [\"2024-01-12\", 0.7397]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://yemendataproject.org/\", \"https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2024/01/arabian-peninsula-shipping-in-red-sea-remains-disrupted-as-of-jan-2-following-attacks-against-vessels-update-5\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/saudi-arabia-drone-attack-oil-infrastructure-ras-tanura-dhahran-houthis-yemen-iran/\", \"https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&amp;as_sdt=0%2C21&amp;q=houthi+drones&amp;oq=houthi+dro#d=gs_qabs&amp;t=1704573602923&amp;u=%23p%3D13bE6VPT93IJ\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/1975/06/06/archives/egyptians-reopen-canal-amid-pomp-sadat-leads-first-convoy-through.html)7\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/us/politics/gaza-houthi-yemen.html\", \"https://responsiblestatecraft.org/houthi-missiles-israel/\", \"https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1745559409323843620?t=kuuliojQoZqHD3FUwV5-6w&amp;s=19\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/06/business/red-sea-shipping-houthi.html\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/6/will-the-houthi-red-sea-attacks-destabilise-yemens-fragile-peace\", \"https://www.academia.edu/download/89184882/Yemen_s_Houthis_and_the_expansion_of_Iran_s_Axis_of_Resistance.pdf\", \"https://www.ajot.com/news/msc-announcement\", \"https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1743654060673093754?t=quvWiJItPHRjBHtvu7Mc3Q&amp;s=19\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/11/politics/us-strikes-houthis-yemen/index.html\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/05/shipping-maersk-to-extend-red-sea-diversion-for-foreseeable-future.html\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/8e9eb52c-cf78-4052-8c28-2c2cef8f9372\", \"https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containers/rewards-trump-risk-for-cma-cgm-as-liner-giant-continues-to-run-red-sea-gauntlet/2-1-1579017\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-europe/\", \"https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranian-spy-ship-helps-houthis-direct-attacks-on-red-sea-vessels-d6f7fd40\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/3/timeline-uae-drone-missile-attacks-houthis-yemen\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/yemen\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/business/red-sea-oil-houthis.html\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/689c4e66-fa37-49a6-9809-575c2d2ef44e#post-2ece5e11-66a7-40e2-9f6e-ddb3214f1547\", \"https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/yemen/#:~:text=More%20than%2019%2C200%20civilians%2C%20including,result%20of%20coalition%20airstrikes%20alone\", \"https://www.foreignaffairs.com/yemen/dont-bomb-houthis?utm_medium=newsletters&amp;utm_source=fatoday&amp;utm_campaign=Victory%20Is%20Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Only%20True%20Path%20to%20Peace&amp;utm_content=20240111&amp;utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017\"]"}, {"question": "Before 20 November 2023, will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3075", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    <p>Pressure is mounting on Egypt, which is the only country other than Israel to share a border with the Gaza Strip, to allow refugees from Gaza into the country (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/International/rafah-crossing-people-aid-stuck-egypt-border-gaza/story?id=104016070\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/doubts-fears-run-high-palestinian-americans-stuck-gaza-rcna120616\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.voanews.com/a/egypt-expresses-opposition-to-allowing-palestinians-from-gaza-into-sinai/7310915.html\" target=\"_blank\">Voice of America</a>). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-10-19", "date_close": "2023-11-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-20\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4833], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4125], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.418], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3483], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.3988], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.324], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2991], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2927], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2936], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.3018], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2727], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2608], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2493], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2493], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2744], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2819], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2894], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2782], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2794], [\"2023-10-23\", 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0.1388], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.1363], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.1258], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.1204], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1179], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1144], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1148], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1144], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1104], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1088], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.112], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1116], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1073], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1069], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1088], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1088], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1088], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1108], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1035], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1012], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1008], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0627], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0619], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0608], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0531], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0523], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0508], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0442], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0435], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0492], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0462], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0454], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0458], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0552], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0548], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0548], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0544], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0537], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0522], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0522]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67133675\", \"https://abc7chicago.com/egypt-jordan-refugees-palestinians/13935609/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/egypt-rejects-any-displacement-palestinians-into-sinai-says-sisi-2023-10-18/\", \"https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/palestine-israel/2023/11/12/rafah-crossing-reopens-for-gazans-entering-egypt/\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/15/rafah-border-crossing-could-egypt-open-it-to-fleeing-palestinians\", \"https://www.cissong.org/comunicato-stampa-ciss-1-novembre-2023-aperto-valico-di-rafah-tra-coloro-che-sono-usciti-il-capo-missione-ciss-jacopo-intini-e-la-responsabile-di-area-ciss-amal-khayal/\"]"}, {"question": "Before 1 January 2024, will American journalist Evan Gershkovich leave Russia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2941", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    <p>Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023 for espionage, a claim he denies (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/International/journalist-evan-gershkovich-100-days-detained-russia/story?id=100800017\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>). US officials have said that there have been discussions with Russia on a possible prisoner exchange (<a href=\"https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/4090458-evan-gershkovich-parents-say-biden-promised-to-do-whatever-it-takes-to-bring-son-home/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-07-14", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-14\", 0.18], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.0967], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.302], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.4183], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.4429], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.4063], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.3778], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.382], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.3973], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.4258], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.4267], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.4258], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.4392], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.4469], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.4457], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.4471], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.424], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.4256], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.4256], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.4176], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.4188], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.4039], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.4147], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.4188], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.4372], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.3835], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.3707], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.3338], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.3408], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.3485], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.277], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.287], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.283], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.2573], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.2482], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.2391], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.1936], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1973], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1791], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.1709], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1609], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.1655], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1609], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1591], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1609], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1882], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1636], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1573], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.1773], 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\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/14/russian-court-rejects-appeal-to-release-wsj-reporter-evan-gershkovich\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/28/world/europe/brazil-spy-russia-us.html\", \"https://www.voanews.com/a/press-freedom-wsj-gershkovich-beckett-russia/7326292.html\", \"https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/01/three-russians-arrested-in-new-york-for-shipping-arms-components-a82955\", \"https://apnews.com/article/evan-gershkovich-wsj-moscow-court-4c188cdf89e87528b9434c55c9f324ff\", \"https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/detained-wsj-reporters-sister-urges-biden-to-remain-focused-on-his-release-3207611\", \"https://www.wsj.com/world/white-house-warns-freeing-evan-gershkovich-potentially-tough-c273a00f\", \"https://www.thenation.com/article/world/us-russia-prisoner-exchange/\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-denies-u-s-extradition-request-for-alleged-russian-spy-e1d1cd77?st=uv65kr2lt2liuk9&amp;reflink=article_imessage_share\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/politics/trevor-reed-injured-ukraine/index.html\", \"https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-journalist-evan-gershkovich-be\", \"https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/how-russias-justice-system-stalls-movement-in-evan-gershkovich-case-d98a3b88?mod=hp_lead_pos10\", \"https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-upholds-detention-of-us-reporter-evan-gershkovich/7304319.html\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ambassador-meets-with-detained-wall-street-journal-reporter-257240ff?mod=hp_lead_pos3\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Daniloff\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-court-extends-pre-trial-detention-wsj-reporter-gershkovich-2023-11-28/\", \"https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-journalist-gershkovich-prisoner-exchange-biden-wsj-update/32502406.html\", \"https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-says-russia-rejected-proposal-release-paul-whelan-evan-gershkovich\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/politics/iran-us-prisoner-swap.html\", \"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-may-consider-prisoner-swap-after-trial-of-detained-u-s-reporter\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/radio-free-europe-says-russia-detains-us-journalist-with-dual-citizenship-2023-10-19/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ambassador-russia-meets-with-detained-journalist-gershkovich-wsj-2023-08-14/\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-american-prisoners-house-arrest/\", \"https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brittney_Griner\"]"}, {"question": "Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it has executed a military strike within the territory of the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or the West Bank before 30 October 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3053", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    <p>After Hamas' attack in southern Israel in early October 2023, the US has announced that it is sending naval forces to the Eastern Mediterranean (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-american-carrier-strike-force-mediterranean-db05d535a9ebb931f684f758c9b6f628\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3551716/statement-from-secretary-lloyd-j-austin-iii-on-us-force-posture-changes-in-the/\" target=\"_blank\">Defense.gov</a>). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on or over pertinent territory. A cyberattack alone would not count, and a strike in or over Gazan or Lebanese airspace or territorial waters would count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-10-08", "date_close": "2023-10-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-09\", 0.01], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0333], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0275], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.024], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0386], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0311], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.073], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0664], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0658], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0608], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1264], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1347], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.128], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1231], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1188], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1133], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1122], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1221], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.116], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1165], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1133], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.1127], 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\"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna121580\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/c494c04f-705d-4100-9a0d-574826e5fd67\", \"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3570798/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iiis-statement-on-us-military-strikes-in-ea/\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206832708/biden-israel-trip-mideast-peace\", \"https://www.state.gov/about-us-special-presidential-envoy-for-hostage-affairs/#:~:text=14078%20of%20July%2019%2C%202022,terrorist%20organizations%2C%20criminal%20groups%2C%20and\", \"https://apnews.com/article/syria-airstrikes-iran-revolutionary-guard-af3c7a0f069b8c8b08f6feaa0e165d6a\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/broken-lebanon-cannot-afford-war-hezbollah-knows-it-2023-10-26/\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-strikes-iranian-backed-militias-eastern-syria-retaliation-attacks-on-u-s-troops/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-gaza-health-ministry-health-death-toll-59470820308b31f1faf73c703400b033#:~:text=The%20total%20toll%20is%207%2C028,foreign%20journalists%20and%20humanitarian%20workers\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/28/israel-hamas-war-live-israeli-bombings-intensify-as-gaza-goes-dark\", \"https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-770137\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-asking-israel-hard-questions-gaza-military-assault-white-house-2023-10-29/\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-more-hostages-released/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OagYlYna75Y\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/21/world/middleeast/us-hostages-release-israel-hamas-qatar-raanan.html\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/22/us/politics/us-hostages-israel-gaza.html\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/politics/us-marines-pentagon-israel/index.html\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/20/us/politics/biden-israel-hezbollah-war.html\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/17/israel-news-us-military-hezbollah-attacks\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/20/1207526804/mother-daughter-american-hostages-released-israel-hamas\", \"https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-769795\"]"}, {"question": "Will the jury find Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of any federal crime in his trial that began on 3 October 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3045", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's federal trial in the Southern District of New York began on 3 October 2023, in which he is facing seven criminal charges (<a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/03/1202965753/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-sbf-trial-crypto\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/04/ftx-sbf-trial-updates-news-witness-list\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/04/investing/sam-bankman-fried-jury/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). A guilty or no contest plea without a verdict from the jury would not count. If the judge declares a mistrial or dismisses the charges, the question would close \"No.\" The granting of a motion for a judgment of acquittal after the jury reaches a verdict would be immaterial, and appeals and litigation subsequent to a trial are immaterial (<a href=\"https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcrmp/rule_29\" target=\"_blank\">Cornell</a>). If the trial is still underway as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-10-05", "date_close": "2023-11-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-06\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.775], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.814], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.8283], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.8514], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.8638], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.878], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.8845], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.8985], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.9062], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.9057], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.9113], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.8981], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.9011], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.8932], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.886], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8914], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8873], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8845], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8787], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8833], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8868], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8912], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8915], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8952], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8968], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8969], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.896], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8994], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9052], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8571], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9019], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9005], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.899], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8877], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8861], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9032], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9052], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.8622], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.8459], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.8512], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.8559], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.8535], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.8594], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8647], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8647], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8611], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8617], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8633], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.8494], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.8383], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.8389], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.8383], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.8383], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.8417], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.8417], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.8467], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8495], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.8458], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8463], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8384], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.8879], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.8889], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8884], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8895], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.8925], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.8925], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.8925], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.8885], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.886], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9005], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9105], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.911], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.918], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9255], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.926], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.926], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.919], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9086], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9086], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.909], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.911], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9124], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9105], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9105], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9105], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9068], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9077], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9086], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9141], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9168], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9155], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9148], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9165], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.917], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9209], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9226], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9235], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9235]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/federal-sentencing-statistics/state-district-circuit/2014/nys14.pdf\", \"https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/speech/prepared-remarks-us-attorney-preet-bharara-new-york-financial-writers-association\", \"https://www.geoffreygnathanlaw.com/topics/most-famous-embezzlement-cases/#:~:text=10%2B%20All%20Time%20Most%20Famous%20Embezzlement%20Cases%201,Koss%20Inc.%20-%20%2430%20million%20...%20More%20items\", \"https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/federal-sentencing-statistics/state-district-circuit/2022/nys22.pdf\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/technology/caroline-ellison-sam-bankman-fried-trial.html?campaign_id=7&amp;emc=edit_mbae_20231010&amp;instance_id=104877&amp;nl=morning-briefing%3A-asia-pacific-edition%C2%AEi_id=77825025&amp;segment_id=146996&amp;te=1&amp;user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preet_Bharara\", \"https://newsletter.mollywhite.net/p/ftx-defrauded-its-customers-says\", \"https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/03/sbf-ftx-trial-day-one/?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIgrC_uYAi1IZxtFYsIkHPqY4_atmqC6WAF7GRIJ78z-Hgn0uC90mP5_JGTyequFnBtMqCBd1DJVwzD13PPZLpDw0pbd-BbyoIfKr3uHWr2o8VSatWjAgSURsFcYW4msXQEhS51ww-XjuVAAFCgOohO6jntkcs5KtonEJqcFay9Z\", \"https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/14/fewer-than-1-of-defendants-in-federal-criminal-cases-were-acquitted-in-2022/\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/technology/caroline-ellison-sam-bankman-fried-trial.html?campaign_id=7&amp;emc=edit_mbae_20231010&amp;instance_id=104877&amp;nl=morning-briefing%3A-asia-pacific-edition&amp;regi_id=77825025&amp;segment_id=146996&amp;te=1&amp;user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/technology/ftx-executive-trial-sam-bankman-fried-excess-spending.html\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/10/inside-sam-bankman-frieds-35-million-crypto-frat-house-in-bahamas.html\", \"https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/data_tables/jb_d4_0930.2022.pdf\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1158356619/plea-bargains-criminal-cases-justice\", \"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/02/inside-sam-bankman-frieds-family-bubble\", \"https://gizmodo.com/sbf-finally-testifies-in-court-with-no-jurors-present-1850964343\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/14/1205737325/criminal-mastermind-hapless-dude-sam-bankman-fried-trial-ftx\", \"https://www.ccn.com/news/bankman-fried-testimy-goal-one-juror-believe/\", \"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/31/1209498750/sam-bankman-fried-trial-ftx-alameda-testimony-defense\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/technology/caroline-ellison-sam-bankman-fried-trial.html?campaign_id=7&amp;emc=edit_mbae_20231010&amp;instance_id=104877&amp;nl=morning-briefing%3A-asia-pacific-edition\", \"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/11/01/a-pyramid-of-deceit-prosecutors-begin-closing-argument-in-sam-bankman-fried-fraud-trial/\", \"https://www.msnbc.com/the-cycle/conversation-preet-bharara-and-ari-melber-msna528151\", \"https://abovethelaw.com/2019/09/why-defendants-rarely-testify/\", \"https://pcjc.blogs.pace.edu/tag/conviction-rate/\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/22/ftxs-gary-wang-alamedas-caroline-ellison-plead-guilty-to-federal-charges-cooperating-with-prosecutors.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorize SpaceX to launch a third flight of Starship Super Heavy before 1 January 2024?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3131", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>After a more successful, though not completely successful, second test of SpaceX's Starship on 18 November 2023, Elon Musk has said that they could be ready for a third test within three to four weeks (<a href=\"https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-third-flight-readiness-four-weeks\" target=\"_blank\">Space.com</a>, <a href=\"https://isp.page/news/elon-musk-reveals-readiness-date-for-starships-next-flight\" target=\"_blank\">Isp.page</a>, <a href=\"https://payloadspace.com/whats-next-for-starship-in-dc/\" target=\"_blank\">Payload</a>, <a href=\"https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-pad-good-condition\" target=\"_blank\">Space.com</a>). License authorization for the second flight was given on 15 November 2023 (<a href=\"https://twitter.com/FAANews/status/1724899056315777260\" target=\"_blank\">X [fka Twitter]</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2023-11-15/faa-approves-license-for-spacexs-second-launch-of-starship-super-heavy\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-11-22", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.5333], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.434], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.4383], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.3757], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.3288], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.3589], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.353], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.351], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.3464], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.3364], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.3292], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.3277], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.3043], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.3253], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.3187], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.3275], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.3229], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.3156], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.3226], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3371], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.32], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.2994], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.2929], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3121], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.315], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.303], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.2845], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.2827], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.236], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.2236], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.2236], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.191], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1827], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1736], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1691], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1655], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.1667], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.1673], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.1618], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.112], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.107], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.1018], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0973], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0927], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0927], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0867], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.06], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.06], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0175], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.0225], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.0225], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.0225], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.0943], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.088], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.0867], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.0867], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.0813], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.0806], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0806], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0806], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.1431], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.1431], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.1431], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.1431]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://aviationweek.com/AWST\", \"https://www.commerce.gov/hr/practitioners/ses-policies/plum-book\", \"https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/spacex-completes-static-fire-test-in-push-toward-third-starship-launch/\", \"https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/faa-closes-spacex-starship-mishap-investigation\", \"https://observer.com/2023/11/spacex-starship-3rd-orbital-test-timeline/\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/spacex-plans-nasa-refueling-demonstration-for-next-starship-launch.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will the US office vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2023 be 16.5% or higher, according to Colliers?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3010", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>The US office vacancy rate in the US rose to 16.4% in the second quarter of 2023, higher than its peak of the global financial crisis (16.3%) as the office property market faces a major downturn (<a href=\"https://www.colliers.com/en/research/us-office-market-outlook-q2-2023\" target=\"_blank\">Colliers - US Office Market Outlook Q2 2023</a>, <a href=\"https://theweek.com/economy/1024433/making-sense-of-americas-commercial-real-estate-crisis\" target=\"_blank\">The Week</a>). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using US office vacancy data as first reported by Colliers, expected in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-09-07", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-09", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-08\", 1.0], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.875], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.8267], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.8175], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.81], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.802], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7983], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.8083], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7929], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7829], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7943], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6975], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6533], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.688], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6982], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7025], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7215], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6879], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.7087], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.6883], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.614], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.697], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.757], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.745], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.755], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.765], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.77], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.761], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.796], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.786], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.795], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.797], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.797], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.798], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.835], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.832], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.822], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.8018], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.7609], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7636], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.75], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.75], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.7691], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.7936], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.7858], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.7658], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7917], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7958], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7958]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-job-market-boom-is-over-heres-why-and-what-it-means-5f3e498f?mod=hp_lead_pos1\", \"https://www.inc.com/sarah-lynch-/the-post-labor-day-return-to-office-push-is-here-what-leaders-need-to-know.html\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/infamous-san-diego-high-rise-joins-office-to-apartment-conversion-trend/ar-AA1gnB2C\", \"https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-making-workers-employees-return-to-office-rto-wfh-hybrid-2023-1\", \"https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/san-francisco-office-market-shows-signs-of-life-93a95515?st=l95m21jg6pmvfs0&amp;reflink=article_copyURL_share\", \"https://www.statista.com/statistics/194054/us-office-vacancy-rate-forecasts-from-2010/\", \"https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/benefits/pages/as-summer-ends-workers-head-back-to-the-office.aspx#:~:text=About%2051%20percent%20of%20employers,to%20by%202025%20or%20later\", \"https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/even-a-booming-economy-cant-save-atlantas-office-market-1246e446?mod=hp_lead_pos3\"]"}, {"question": "Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under \"Assessed Russian Control\" before 15 December 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2967", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (<a href=\"https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-crimea-chonhar-bridge-damage-photo-russia-logistics-bases-dzankoi-1816545\" target=\"_blank\">Newsweek</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-shelling-civilians-killed-donetsk-7954cc6c8f2ce4e3fc94c05bba19d96c\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/07/18/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70423412007/\" target=\"_blank\">USA Today</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (<a href=\"https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375\" target=\"_blank\">ISW</a>, labeled \"The Autonomous Republic of Crimea\").</p>", "date_begin": "2023-08-04", "date_close": "2023-12-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-04\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1433], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1325], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.106], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.2533], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.0914], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.2025], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1967], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.187], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1567], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1558], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.2208], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.215], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.2121], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.198], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1863], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1753], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1656], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1589], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.151], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.151], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1441], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1387], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1333], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1288], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1296], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1322], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1318], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.1311], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1286], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1247], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1239], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1291], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1255], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1255], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1276], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1265], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.1254], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.1219], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.1276], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.1054], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1044], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1092], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1056], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.1261], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.0756], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0721], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0695], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0665], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.066], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0689], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0642], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.078], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.079], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.074], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1175], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1143], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.1505], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.1505], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.1495], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.1483], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.1425], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.1448], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.1384], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.1352], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.1304], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.1308], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.1313], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.1317], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.1317], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.1388], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.1404], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.1404], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.1404], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.1448], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.1476], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1476], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.1635], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.1423], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.1431], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.1437], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.1456], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.1541], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.1189], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.117], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.1215], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.1207], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.1171], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.1164], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.1157], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1161], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1346], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.1343], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.1328], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.1359], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.1313], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.1313], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.1313], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.131], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.131], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.1297], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.1297], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.1307], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.1253], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.1247], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.128], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.1277], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.132], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.1287], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.1277], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.1268], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.1268], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.1274], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.1403], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.1229], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.1229], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.1206], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.1163], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.1191], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.1412], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.1348], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.1345], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.1358], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1355], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1324], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.1324], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.133], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.1297], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.1288], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.1282], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.1268], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1265], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1253], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.1253], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.1247], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.1247], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.1221], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.1221], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.1218], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.1209], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.1215], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.1209], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.1206], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.1021], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.1009], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1009], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1024], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.1024], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0988], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0959], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0947], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0947], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.0944], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.0929], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.0915], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.0929], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0926], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0888], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0863], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0743], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0737], 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0.0341], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.0332], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.0332], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.0329], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.0329], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.0329], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.0329], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.0326], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.0324], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.0321], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.0316], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.0295], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.0268], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.0268], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.0268], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.0268], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.0266], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0277], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.021], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.0213], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.0213], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.0198], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.0198], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.0198], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.0195], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.019], 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[\"2023-12-04\", 0.0238], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0245], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.0245], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.0245], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.0245], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.0245], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.015], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.01]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.npr.org/2023/07/28/1190544651/ukraine-rebuild-navy-destroyed-by-russia\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-offensive-inches-forward-in-search-of-a-breakthrough/ar-AA1eK8I8\", \"https://www.google.com/maps/@46.468481,33.7815119,283131m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu\", \"https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20230914_09/\", \"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Cartographical%20Methodology%20Explanation%20ISW%20CTP%202022.pdf\", \"https://www.google.com/maps/@46.468481,33.7815119,240656m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-launched-special-operation-russian-occupied-crimea-2023-08-24/\", \"https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375\", \"https://apnews.com/article/russia-crimea-ukraine-kerch-bridge-c3759176ab015796a1e21ca82f19e0c9\", \"https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/22/ukraine-crimea-russia-putin-red-line-00083857\"]"}, {"question": "Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 21 October 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3013", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>While Belarus has not officially engaged in fighting in Ukraine, there are concerns that it could be drawn into the fighting (<a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-08-17/putin-not-pushing-belarus-to-enter-war-with-ukraine-says-lukashenko\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/belarusians-wary-of-being-drawn-into-russias-war-in-ukraine\" target=\"_blank\">PBS</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664560\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). For the purposes of this question, \"Ukraine\" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count. Members of the Belarusian armed forces being placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and the government of Belarus acknowledging that those Belarusian troops have engaged in fighting in Ukraine would count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-09-08", "date_close": "2023-10-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.2575], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.1733], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.1425], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.117], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0975], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0907], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0806], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0776], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.02], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.024], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0219], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0209], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0196], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0181], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0172], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0165], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0215], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0165], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.016], [\"2023-09-12\", 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[\"2023-10-01\", 0.0885], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0846], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0845], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.083], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0814], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0806], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0791], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.079], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0788], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0726], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.072], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0713], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0729], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0734], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0724], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0736], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0735], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0739], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0719], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.0683], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.0689], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.064], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.0637], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.0567], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.0555], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0523], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0518], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0515], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0514], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0517], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0551], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0544], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0534], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0531], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0526], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0526], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.0536], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.0543], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.0536], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.0478], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.0473], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.0444], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0446], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0443], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0438], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0437], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0429], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0427], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0429], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0415], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0416], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0411], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0411], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0409], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0404], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0398], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0391], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0386], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0375], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0372], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0362], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0359], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0354], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0346], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0342], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0339], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0324], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0308], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0308], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0302], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0298], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0296], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0297], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0293], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0302], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.029], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0278], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0275], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0266], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0258], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0258], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0227], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0239], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0237], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0238], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0238], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0261], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0254], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0253], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0241], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0238], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0239], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0208], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0205], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0202], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0201], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0199], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.02]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/belarusians-wary-of-being-drawn-into-russias-war-in-ukraine\", \"https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/the-war-in-ukraine-one-year-on-will-belarus-join-the-battlefield/\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66981840\", \"https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/australia-extends-punitive-tariffs-on-imports-from-russia-belarus-for-2-years/3000380\", \"https://www.rferl.org/a/lukashenka-putin-belaurs-ukraine-war/32552805.html\", \"https://apnews.com/article/belarus-ukraine-russia-children-2922e2fd4230fcfc94c323b842c06276\", \"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-03/belarus-begins-army-combat-readiness-exercises\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/europe/belarus-us-pushing-russia-to-nukes-intl-hnk/index.html\", \"https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/belarus-dictator-lukashenka-must-face-justice-for-role-in-russias-ukraine-war/\", \"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/belarus-top-diplomat-says-he-cant-imagine-his-country-entering-the-war-in-ukraine-alongside-russia\", \"https://euneighbourseast.eu/news/latest-news/deportation-of-ukrainian-children-must-stop-eu-says-to-belarusian-foreign-ministry/\", \"https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/19/belarus-is-inching-toward-invading-ukraine/\", \"https://www.kyivpost.com/post/12258\", \"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/belarusians-wary-of-being-drawn-into-russias-war-in-ukraine\", \"https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230921-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-poland-no-longer-arming-ukraine\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/07/07/ukraine-russia-conflict-why-belarus-and-lukashenko-are-in-lockstep-with-putin/4508d872-1cbf-11ee-be41-a036f4b098ec_story.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-not-pushing-belarus-enter-war-with-ukraine-says-lukashenko-2023-08-17\", \"https://apnews.com/article/belarus-ukraine-russia-war-nuclear-putin-lukashenko-3b3761efabdb2f641308bc0e97ac9363\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/lukashenko-insists-belarusians-most-peace-205700647.html\", \"https://apnews.com/article/belarus-russia-ukraine-united-nations-97037b259f4692e98798f36b91bdb29b\", \"https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21-2023\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/8/18/putin-not-pushing-belarus-to-join-ukraine-war-lukashenko-says\", \"https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3764096-military-exercises-continue-in-belarus-their-active-phase-on-september-2226-nayev.html\", \"https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/09/08/russia-withdraws-military-contingent-from-allied-belarus-a82405\", \"https://www.statista.com/statistics/1299648/opinion-on-belarus-participating-in-russia-ukraine-war/\"]"}, {"question": "Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 February 2024?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3076", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed (<a href=\"https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-stack-launch-rehearsal-prep-photos\" target=\"_blank\">Space.com</a>, <a href=\"https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/09/06/musk-declares-starship-is-ready-for-its-second-test-flight-following-stacking/\" target=\"_blank\">Spaceflight Now</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/18/world/spacex-testimony-senate-faa-regulations-scn/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (<a href=\"https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-14-engine-test-fire\" target=\"_blank\">Space.com</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-10-19", "date_close": "2023-11-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-20\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4933], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.356], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2967], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.3014], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2963], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2889], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.287], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.3518], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.3518], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3642], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3538], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3585], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3829], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.404], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.4038], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.4153], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.4165], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.4294], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.43], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.3911], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4731], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4318], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4682], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4642], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.427], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.427], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.457], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.447], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.397], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.4336], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.4182], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.4291], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4545], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4545], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4627], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4609], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.4392], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.4475], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.4725], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.4333], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.4375], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.4392], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.4475], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.4525], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.4558], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.4808], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.4731], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.4577], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.4577], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.4577], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.4723], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.4615], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.4685], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.48], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.48], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.4921], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.5286], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.5536], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.5614], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.545], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.554], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.5607], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.584], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.584], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.588], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.5953], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.5933], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.5953], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.5847], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.5747], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.5853], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.5847], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.5847], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.5867], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.5893], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.58], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.5833], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.5967], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.6125], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.6094], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.6438], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.6513], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.6575], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.6863], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.6988], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.7094], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.7047], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.7112], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.7124], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.7124]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.axios.com/2023/11/15/spacex-starship-launch-faa-license-elon-musk\", \"https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/11/if-the-next-starship-makes-it-through-staging-you-can-call-that-a-win/\", \"https://youtu.be/UiAFm79LgAE?feature=shared\", \"https://www.lifecycleinsights.com/where-to-put-the-x/\", \"https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20231118-spacex-starship-set-for-new-launch-after-first-test-ended-in-explosion\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/review-spacex-starship-water-deluge-160000055.html\", \"https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/11/16/faa-clears-spacex-for-second-super-heavy-starship-test-flight/\", \"https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/10/18/spacex-battles-regulatory-process-that-could-hold-up-starship-test-flight-for-months/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOGgpo_c08c\", \"https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review\", \"https://www.space.com/china-launches-shenzhou-17-crew-tiangong\", \"https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nasa-tensions-with-spacex-rise-over-moon-mission-delays\", \"https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1725879726479450297?t=a-x7YP_HnRzmPVKD_INJeQ&amp;s=19\", \"https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-booster-9-hot-staging-photos\", \"https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-second-test-flight-launch-explodes\", \"https://wccftech.com/spacex-pumps-starship-with-enough-fuel-to-send-it-to-space/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the US House of Representatives officially open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden before 1 January 2024?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3008", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>House Republicans are reportedly considering opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden and corruption claims related to family business dealings (<a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4183496-mccarthy-says-he-wont-open-impeachment-inquiry-without-house-vote/\" target=\"_blank\">The Hill</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/04/white-house-biden-impeachment-00113824\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/28/politics/mccarthy-biden-impeachment-strategy/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). For the purposes of this question, \"officially open\" means either 1) a vote by the full House to begin an impeachment inquiry, or 2) a public announcement by the Speaker of the House of Representatives that an impeachment inquiry has begun or is beginning (<a href=\"https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-houses-role-in-the-impeachment-inquiry-process\" target=\"_blank\">Constitution Center</a>, <a href=\"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45769\" target=\"_blank\">Congressional Research Service</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-09-07", "date_close": "2023-09-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.2067], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.355], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.454], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.4833], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.5143], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4813], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4825], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4744], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4633], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.419], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.44], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4533], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4454], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4136], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4127], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4244], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4175], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4018], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3878], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4042], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.424], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4443], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4264], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4209], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4346], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4352], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4319], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4315], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4327], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4178], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4332], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4396], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4593], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4679], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4621], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.458], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.43], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.43], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.43]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/speaker-mccarthy-expected-endorse-impeachment-inquiry-president-biden/story?id=103114626\", \"https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/\", \"https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4197024-ken-buck-says-house-facing-perfect-storm-over-spending-biden-impeachment/\", \"https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/dog_that_caught_the_car\", \"https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4183851-mccarthy-faces-political-minefield-on-biden-impeachment/\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/28/politics/mccarthy-biden-impeachment-strategy/index.html\"]"}, {"question": "Will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the \"Big Three\" US automakers cease before 16 November 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3058", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>In September 2023, the UAW (officially the \"International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America\") began targeted strikes against the \"Big Three\" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) after the expiration of their respective collective bargaining agreements (<a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-10-04/gm-estimates-costs-of-uaw-strike-through-sept-30-at-200-million\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/05/uaw-strike-impact-economy\" target=\"_blank\">Axios</a>, <a href=\"https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-strike-and-lock-out.html\" target=\"_blank\">Key Differences</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-10-10", "date_close": "2023-10-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4167], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4375], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.44], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5317], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5514], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5514], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.5013], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4456], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.469], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4491], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4533], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4685], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4738], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4471], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4307], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.424], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4293], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4213], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4341], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4411], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.4521], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.461], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.461], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4605], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4555], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4504], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4475], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4476], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4452], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.4512], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.4435], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.4608], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.4524], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.4504], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.4345], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.4435], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.4383], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4185], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4492], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4536], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4536], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4764], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4947], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4775], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4781], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4824], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4782], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4865], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4894], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4978], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4926], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4825], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.491], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4895], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4832], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4817], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4717], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4804], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4875], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4965], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4842], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.482], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4596], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4538], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4648], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4648], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4704], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4807], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4689], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4707], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4852], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4871], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4834], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.483], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4894], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4869], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4886], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4849], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4854], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4937], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4979], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4938], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4851], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4816], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4846], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4873], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4886], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4872], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4943], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4976], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4989], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4967], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4974], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.489], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4868], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4873], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4938], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4879], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4879], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4892], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4961], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4936], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5013], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5013], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5037], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5024], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5029], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5079], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5089], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5142], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5193], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5198], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5146], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5197], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.517], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5214], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5261], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5274], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5271], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5138], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5144], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5156], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5229], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5109], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5237], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5231], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5364], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5336], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5281], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5272], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5275], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.525], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5244], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5069], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5131], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5203], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5128], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5294], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.54], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5422], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5436], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5536], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5578], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5647], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5703], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.575], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5792], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5778], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5847], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5958], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5958], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6028], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6069], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6139], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6144], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6253], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6297], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6381], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6422], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6436], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6561], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6644], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.675], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6847], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6889], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6931], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7094], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7114], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7125], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7069], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7081], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7095], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7169], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7065], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.719], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7169], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7179], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7179], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7208], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7178], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7239], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7276], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7312], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7324], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7361], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.736], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.7466], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7467], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7656], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7673], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7788], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7721], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7745], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7763], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7779], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7786], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7734], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7773], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7807], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7798], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.783], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7822], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7898], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.7871], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.7867], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.7973], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8089], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8063], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8132], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8134], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8134], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8145], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8163], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8184], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8197], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8268], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8218], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8274], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8287], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8247], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8292], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8221], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8277], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8267], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8321], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8128], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8077], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8064], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8063], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8088], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.811], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8112], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8124], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8145], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8177], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8121], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8152], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8161], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8173], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8184], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8193], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8239], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8256], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8326], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.833], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8363], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8398], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8398], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8513], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8545], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8555], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8565], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8627], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8655], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8684], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8724], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8729], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8775], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.879], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.879]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uaw-expands-strike-against-gm-walking-out-texas-suv-plant-2023-10-24/\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/28/uaw-strike-stellantis-union-negotiators-agree-to-terms-of-a-deal.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gm-reaches-tentative-deal-with-uaw-source-says-2023-10-30/\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/27/uaw-deal-strike/\", \"https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2023/10/25/uaw-strike-ford-reaches-tentative-deal-with-union-sources-say/71318908007/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-workers-return-work-uaw-turns-gm-stellantis-2023-10-26/#:~:text=Oct%2026%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Ford,with%20the%20company%20late%20Wednesday\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/26/ford-uaw-contract-strike/\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/business/economy/gm-uaw-contract-deal.html\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/25/ford-united-auto-workers-union-deal-strike-general-motors-stellantis\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-28/uaw-aims-to-announce-stellantis-deal-saturday-as-talks-finish-up?embedded-checkout=true\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/uaw-closing-in-on-deals-with-both-gm-and-stellantis/ar-AA1iXJsf\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/business/economy/uaw-stellantis-contract-deal.html?campaign_id=60&amp;emc=edit_na_20231028&amp;instance_id=0&amp;nl=breaking-news&amp;ref=headline\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/gm-uaw-labor-talks.html\", \"https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2023/10/30/uaw-ratification-elections-ford-contract-voting/71378434007/\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/28/uaw-stellantis-strike-gm/\", \"https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/30/23938368/gm-uaw-tentative-deal-strike-autoworker-ev\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/business/economy/uaw-ford-contract-agreement-strike.html\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/gm-matched-ford-s-25-salary-increase-in-latest-contract-offer-to-uaw\", \"https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/united-auto-workers-stellantis-reach-tentative-agreement-labor-contract-reports\", \"https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/27/general-motors-stellantis-uaw-00124021\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/business/economy/uaw-stellantis-contract-deal.html?campaign_id=60&amp;emc=edit_na_20231028&amp;instance_id=0&amp;nl=breaking-news&amp;ref=headline&amp;regi_id=220001538&amp;segment_id=148583&amp;user_id=e4c8cb2d4adc47d9eaa2d9f8e931ac46\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/business/economy/gm-uaw-contract-deal.html?smid=url-share\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/30/gm-uaw-tentative-agreement-labor-strike.html\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/29/uaw-ford-agreement-bolsters-biden-strategy/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-uaw-negotiators-reach-labor-deal-cnbc-2023-10-25/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for July 2023 be greater than 3.6%?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2933", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>While new jobs came in lighter than expected among economists in June 2023, the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6% (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/jobs-report-june-2023-.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The question will be suspended on 3 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected in August 2023 (<a href=\"https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000\" target=\"_blank\">BLS</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-07-12", "date_close": "2023-08-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-18\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.5075], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.408], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.3429], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.3625], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.3711], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.394], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.382], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.4183], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.4015], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.3977], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.3764], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.408], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.4231], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.4041], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.4289], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.4278], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.4237], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.4289], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.4305], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.4255], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.4271], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.4772], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.4756], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.4563], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.4317], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4573], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4227], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4318], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4408], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4567], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4775], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4808], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4985], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4821], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.4671], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.5171], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.506], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.502], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4747], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4763], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4681], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4676], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4694], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4447], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.447], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4467], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4536], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4426], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4471], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4476], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4458], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4559], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4754], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.4745], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.4524], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4538], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4577], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4645], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.452], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4386], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4431], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4437], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4367], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4334], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4352], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4292], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4419], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4414], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.4433], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.441], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.4267], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.4073], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.4009], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.4077], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.4043], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.3848], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.3839], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3913], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3929], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3933], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3842], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3838], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3817], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3775], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3538], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3375], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3275], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3221], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3208], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3168], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3104], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3064], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.316], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3144], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3124], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3112], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3146], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3104], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3088], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3119], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3092], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2996], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2969], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3069], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2988], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2981], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2935], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2858], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2885], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2877], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2773], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2707], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2707], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2652], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2685], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2643], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2572], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2511], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2496], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2421], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2414], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2354], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.2366], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.237], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.237]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-shows-signs-stabilizing-lower-levels-july-ism-says-2023-08-01/\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/02/private-sector-added-324000-jobs-in-july-well-above-expectations-adp-says.html\", \"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate/\", \"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-2023-07-20/\", \"https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2012/05/18/the-relationships-among-changes-in-gdp-employment-and-unemployment-this-time-its-different\", \"https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/RYGSSYT0G1KW\", \"https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf\", \"https://adpemploymentreport.com/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-af1be1f6f26974ffc59fa44495158cc4\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-moderately-layoffs-drop-11-month-low-2023-08-03/\", \"https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0207\", \"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf\", \"https://www.factcheck.org/2023/07/bidens-numbers-july-2023-update/\", \"https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2023-advance-estimate\", \"https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/RYPU1ZDWLU68\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-economic-growth-accelerates-second-quarter-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-2023-07-27/\", \"https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2023/07/27/the-advance-estimate-of-second-quarter-real-gdp/#:~:text=Real%20GDP%20grew%20at%20an,market%20expectations%20of%201.8%20percent\", \"https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58957\", \"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate?embed/forecast\"]"}, {"question": "Will a winner of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences have a faculty appointment at Harvard University or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) when the prize is announced?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3012", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Both Harvard and MIT have a long history of producing Nobel Laureates among both faculty and graduates (<a href=\"https://ischoolconnect.com/blog/top-universities-with-most-nobel-prize-winners/\" target=\"_blank\">iSchoolConnect</a>). The announcement of the winner or winners of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is scheduled for 9 October 2023 (<a href=\"https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/about/prize-announcement-dates/\" target=\"_blank\">Nobel Prize Announcement Dates</a>). A winner with a faculty emeritus title or affiliate faculty title at either institution when the prize is announced would count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-09-08", "date_close": "2023-10-09", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-09", "gpt_3p5_category": "Education & Research", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4033], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4167], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.5625], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4917], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.435], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4011], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4011], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.3955], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.3792], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.3769], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.3707], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.3631], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.3741], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.3883], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.4047], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.4084], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.4105], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.413], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.4162], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.42], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.4365], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.396], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.3957], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.4163], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.4168], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.4521], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.4395], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.44], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.4377], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.4336], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.445], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.4725], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.4784], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.4745], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.4912], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.4959], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.5133], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.5063], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.4867], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.4938], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.4863], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.4863], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4694], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4718], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4476], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4506], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4582], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4588], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4572], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4667], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.4583], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.445], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4268], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4305], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.427], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.418], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.396], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.396], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.396], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4055], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4119], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.401], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3964], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3917], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3909], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3825], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3858], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3833], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3842], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3748], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3728], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3748], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.372], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3724], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3704], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3704], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3646], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3565], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3507], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3471], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3438], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3423], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3423], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3463], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3403], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3384], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3282], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3282], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3274], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3269], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3118], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3088], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3071], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.304], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3058], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3084], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3076], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3075], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3083], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3049], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3068], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3068], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3169], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.319], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3185], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3193], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3188], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3195], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3312], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3407], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3476], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3487], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3515], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3493], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3483], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3515], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3565], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3565], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3614], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3671], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3658], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3719], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3719], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3813], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3807], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3764], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3768], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3768], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.376], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3757], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.371], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3765], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3851], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3913], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.393], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3971], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3987], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.398], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.395], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3945], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3923], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3923], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.3932], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.3895], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.3902], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.3897], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.3943], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.4243], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.441], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.4483], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.4412], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.4436], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.4423], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.4449], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.4477], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.4486], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.4509], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.4386], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.4312], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.4263], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4245], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4257], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4211], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4252], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4298], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4314], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4245], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4234], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4251], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.424], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4148], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4054], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4054], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.3991], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.3991], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4047], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4074], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4115], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4144], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4082], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4078], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4096], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4106], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4226], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4226], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.43], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.419], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4151], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4138], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4138], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4062], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4077], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4104], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4096], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4113], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4104], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4083], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4087], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4106], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4106], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4149], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4133], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4124], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4086], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4096], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4089], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4104], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4111], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4111], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.4139], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4139], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4124], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4141], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4124], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4184], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4193], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4186], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4228], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.4236], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.4205], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.4219], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.4205], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4155], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4132], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4142], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4107], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4112], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4098], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4098], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4098], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4164], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4082], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4032], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4013], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4073], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4056], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4073], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4069], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4132], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4189], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4181], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4097], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4147], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4123], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4082], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4123], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4131], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4098], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4252], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4252], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4181], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.413], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4146], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4149], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4189], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4297], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4325], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4373], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4349], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4354], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4275], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4284], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4266], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4259], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4244], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4241], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4217], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.4272], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.4297], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4273], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4273], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4328], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4333], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4375], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4375], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4352], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4352], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.4359], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.4364], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.4356], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.4417], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.4427], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.4356], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.4388], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.4394], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.44], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.44], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.4439], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.4409], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.4394], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4403], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4386], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4391], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4472], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4472]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://clarivate.com/citation-laureates/hall-of-citation-laureates/?citation-laureate-fields=economics&amp;wpv_aux_current_post_id=229322&amp;wpv_aux_parent_post_id=229322&amp;wpv_view_count=146322&amp;wpv-citation-laureate-award-year=2014\", \"https://clarivate.com/news/clarivate-unveils-citation-laureates-2021/\", \"https://www.heise.de/hintergrund/Statistik-der-Woche-Von-welchen-Instituten-die-meisten-Nobelpreistraeger-kamen-9315564.html\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Clarivate_Citation_laureates_in_Economic_Sciences\", \"https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/katalin-kariko-and-drew-weissman-penns-historic-mrna-vaccine-research-team-win-2023-nobel\", \"https://insidestory.org.au/what-the-nobel-prize-tells-us-about-economics/\", \"https://clarivate.com/citation-laureates/economics-2023/\", \"https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-prizes-in-economic-sciences/\", \"https://www.hse.ru/en/news/community/862148382.html#:~:text=According%20to%20Clarivate%2C%20the%20winners,understanding%20the%20determinants%20of%20economic\", \"https://www.statista.com/statistics/1338487/nobel-prize-economics-most-winners-university/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_Memorial_Prize_laureates_in_Economic_Sciences\", \"https://www.hse.ru/en/news/community/862148382.html\", \"https://causalinf.substack.com/p/chatgpt-4-and-bing-predict-2023-winners\", \"https://web.ornl.gov/sci/first/ClarivateAnalyticsCitationLaureates.pdf\", \"https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medal\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_laureates_by_university_affiliation\", \"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarivate-reveals-citation-laureates-2022--annual-list-of-researchers-of-nobel-class-301628766.html\", \"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarivate-unveils-citation-laureates-2023--annual-list-of-researchers-of-nobel-class-301931237.html\", \"https://www.statista.com/statistics/1338487/nobel-prize-economics-most-winners-university/%22\", \"https://clarivate.com/news/clarivate-reveals-2020-citation-laureates-annual-list-of-researchers-of-nobel-class/\", \"https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/who-could-win-this-year-s-nobel-prize-for-economics-11695649415696.html\", \"https://clarivate.com/news/clarivate-unveils-citation-laureates-2023-annual-list-of-researchers-of-nobel-class/\", \"https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.all.html\", \"https://clarivate.com/news/the-web-of-science-group-reveals-annual-citation-laureates-of-nobel-class/\", \"https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/predicting-years-nobel-prize-economics-narayan-ramachandran/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles before 13 December 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3062", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>As Israel is fighting Hamas and others in Gaza, there are fears that conflict could spread to include Lebanon, specifically Iran-backed Hezbollah (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67077736\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/11/politics/us-allies-warn-hezbollah/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-11/israel-reports-cross-border-fire-from-lebanon-where-residents-say-israeli-shelling-under-way\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the \"Blue Line\" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (<a href=\"https://unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-maps\" target=\"_blank\">UN Interim Force in Lebanon</a>, <a href=\"https://www.britannica.com/technology/armoured-vehicle\" target=\"_blank\">Britannica - Armoured Vehicle</a>). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-10-13", "date_close": "2023-12-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-13\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4275], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.412], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3617], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2233], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3671], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4363], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.408], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3717], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3671], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.354], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3406], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3671], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3494], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.38], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.3838], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.3941], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.3835], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.3717], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.3564], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.3462], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.34], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.3476], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.3577], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.3512], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.3474], 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0.0318], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0318], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.0317]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-fires-drones-israel-mounts-air-strikes-2023-12-10/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-works-curb-hefty-losses-israel-clashes-sources-say-2023-10-30/\", \"https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hezbollahs-escalation-ladder#:~:text=An%20expanded%20campaign%20(tier%20two)%20could%20see%20Hezbollah%20firing%20three%20to%20five%20miles%20into%20Israeli%20territory%2C%20rather%20than%20one%20mile.%C2%A0\", \"https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/03/nasrallah-speech-hezbollah-lebanon-israel-hamas-war-gaza-escalation-iran/\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/national-security-adviser-indicates-war-against-hezbollah-likely-after-defeat-of-hamas/\", \"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-770854\", \"https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/10/28/israels-new-plan-to-encircle-hamas\", \"https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-24/ty-article/.premium/israel-planning-for-stage-2-of-the-war-against-hamas-even-before-the-hostages-are-home/0000018b-fd9a-d99b-a7eb-fd9e53d40000\", \"https://lasvegassun.com/news/2023/nov/03/lebanons-militant-hezbollah-leader-threatens-escal/\", \"https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/israel-warns-it-can-no-longer-accept-hezbollah-on-its-border-20231210-p5eqci\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/03/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#hezbollah-leader-address-israel-hamas-war-gaza\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/broken-lebanon-cannot-afford-war-hezbollah-knows-it-2023-10-26/\", \"https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-776212\", \"https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-could-open-second-front-lebanon-defense-minister-hintsgaza-hamas-war-yoav-gallant/\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/02/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#israeli-calls-to-evacuate-parts-of-southern-gaza-could-be-a-precursor-to-an-invasion-there\", \"https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-media-flailing-to-interpret-12-sec-video-of-sayyed-n\", \"https://amwaj.media/article/axis-gaza-qaani\", \"https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/regional-commands/northern-command/what-is-the-blue-line/\", \"https://www.aljarida.com/article/43246\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hezbollah-chief-nasrallah-to-give-first-public-speech-since-start-of-the-war-friday/\", \"https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-772112\", \"https://academic.oup.com/book/32400/chapter-abstract/268692799?redirectedFrom=fulltext\", \"https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-771039\", \"https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-10/ty-article/.premium/washington-balks-at-israeli-armys-months-long-plan-to-complete-goals-in-gaza-fighting/0000018b-b539-dea2-a9bf-f5bf64530000\", \"https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-31/ty-article-live/idf-conducts-raid-in-gaza-rescues-woman-soldier-kidnapped-by-hamas-on-october-7/0000018b-83d7-d805-a98f-b7df34bc0000?liveBlogItemId=847931257#847931257\"]"}, {"question": "Will COP28 result in an agreement that includes explicit language committing to phase out all fossil fuels for energy production by a specific date?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3125", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>The 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) is scheduled to be held from 30 November 2023 through 12 December 2023 in Dubai, UAE (<a href=\"https://unfccc.int/cop28\" target=\"_blank\">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cop28.com/\" target=\"_blank\">COP28.com</a>). Advocates have been pushing for a commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, but no such commitment has been adopted (<a href=\"https://earth.org/what-can-we-expect-from-cop28-and-what-must-happen/\" target=\"_blank\">Earth.org</a>, <a href=\"https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/11/cop27-loss-and-damage-fund-is-welcome-but-failure-to-deliver-on-phasing-out-fossil-fuels-is-a-huge-setback\" target=\"_blank\">Amnesty International</a>, <a href=\"https://www.un.org/africarenewal/news/cop27-outcome-reflections-progress-made-opportunities-missed\" target=\"_blank\">UN.org</a>). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2023 and the outcome determined once all decisions from the summit have been published. The specific date is immaterial, but it must be a fixed point in the future, whether it be a specific day, a month, or a year. A fixed term (e.g., within 50 years of this meeting) would also count. The agreement must be adopted by \"consensus\" to count (<a href=\"http://www.climalia.eu/dealing-consensus-un-climate-talks/\" target=\"_blank\">Climalia</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-11-17", "date_close": "2023-12-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-17\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1375], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0933], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0814], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0667], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.063], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0573], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.1358], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.1392], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.1329], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.1747], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.2027], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.1931], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.1931], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.1935], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.1828], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.1732], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.1795], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.1757], [\"2023-11-19\", 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[\"2023-12-08\", 0.0541], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.0538], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0481], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0403], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0403], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0447], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0447], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0441], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0381], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0378], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0384], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0338], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0334], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0322], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0322]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/22/uae-oil-company-executives-working-with-cop28-team-leak-reveals\", \"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-67674841\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/deal-to-keep-15c-hopes-alive-is-within-reach-says-cop28-president\", \"https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023\", \"https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/06/as-fossil-fuel-phase-out-gathers-steam-resistance-builds/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/world-divided-cop28-over-whether-end-fossil-fuel-era-2023-12-06/\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/09/25/china-us-climate-talks-cop28\", \"https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/GST_0.pdf\", \"https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/media/c19f22f2-d5db-4e64-b69a-55028012d592/Opec-Schreiben.pdf\"]"}, {"question": "Will a UN member state other than the US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3171", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (<a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/International/houthi-missile-strikes-merchant-ship-red-sea-us/story?id=105570184\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-13/us-warship-shoots-down-houthi-drone-launched-from-yemen-us-official\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67607862\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>). The GCC is an international body comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (<a href=\"https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/Pages/default.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">GCC</a>). \"Stray\" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-12-15", "date_close": "2024-01-12", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-15\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.015], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.0933], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.0825], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.066], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.1717], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.1733], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.2914], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.3156], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.294], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.2745], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2354], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2369], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2414], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.228], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.2347], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.2767], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.2991], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.289], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.287], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.331], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.351], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.401], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.504], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.454], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4455], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4417], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4292], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4223], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4254], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4269], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4607], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4138], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4192], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4336], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4267], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.4933], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.4708], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.4192], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.4071], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.4036], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.3964], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.4007], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.3821], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.3814], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.3807], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.3573], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.344], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.3373], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.3627], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.3838], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.4106], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.4344], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.4375], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.3813], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.3963], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.3431], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3288], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3341], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3512], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3688], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.3747], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.3659], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.3761], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.39], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.3933], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.3983], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.4011], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.3817], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.3789], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3739], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.3672], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.3516], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.3558], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.3474], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.3474], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.366], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.3465], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.3615], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.393], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.4305], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.438], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.443], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.4485], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.4835], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.4885], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.491], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.491], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.501], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.5152], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.52], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.5271], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.5286], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.5357], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.55], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.5652], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.5676], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6105], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6129], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.6305], [\"2024-01-12\", 0.6314], [\"2024-01-12\", 0.6727], [\"2024-01-12\", 0.6455], [\"2024-01-12\", 0.6909], [\"2024-01-12\", 0.6909]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/houthi-rebels-boats-yemen-red-sea-attacks-85mxc6gzt\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iranian-navy-seizes-oil-tanker-in-gulf-of-oman/ar-AA1mNBco?cvid=98f8d6f13db44c29b416162d65230314&amp;ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&amp;ei=7\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/maersk-says-will-resume-red-sea-shipping-as-us-led-coalition-counters-houthi-attacks/\", \"https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/podcasts/2023-12-19/ty-article-podcast/the-houthis-dont-care-about-the-palestinians-they-are-attacking-israel-to-gain-support/0000018c-81cf-db89-ad8f-f3ff8aeb0000\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/uk-said-set-to-join-us-led-airstrike-campaign-against-houthis/\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/8e9eb52c-cf78-4052-8c28-2c2cef8f9372\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/11/uk-us-strikes-houthi-yemen-red-sea\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/689c4e66-fa37-49a6-9809-575c2d2ef44e#post-2ece5e11-66a7-40e2-9f6e-ddb3214f1547\", \"https://www.foreignaffairs.com/yemen/dont-bomb-houthis?utm_medium=newsletters&amp;utm_source=fatoday&amp;utm_campaign=Victory%20Is%20Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Only%20True%20Path%20to%20Peace&amp;utm_content=20240111&amp;utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017\", \"https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1745560527437279355?t=37KbeiJf5TuPVazLAFVF2w&amp;s=19\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Supreme Court of Israel outright strike down the 2023 amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary regarding the \"reasonableness\" standard?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2979", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>On 24 July 2023, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, passed an amendment to a Basic Law, a quasi-constitutional provision of Israeli law, that would prohibit the Supreme Court (also known as the High Court of Israel when exercising original jurisdiction) from blocking decisions made by the government regarding appointments and administrative matters on the basis of \"reasonableness\" (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/26/middleeast/israel-supreme-court-judicial-reform-law-intl/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://israelpolicyforum.org/judicial-legislation-tracker/\" target=\"_blank\">Israel Policy Forum - Judicial Legislation Tracker</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ajc.org/news/what-is-israels-reasonableness-legislation-and-why-is-it-so-contentious\" target=\"_blank\">American Jewish Committee</a>, <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/israels-supreme-court-reform-crisis/\" target=\"_blank\">Brookings Institution</a>, <a href=\"https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Knesset - Basic Law: The Judiciary</a>). The hearing on eight challenges to the amendment to the Basic Law is scheduled for 12 September 2023 (<a href=\"https://supreme.court.gov.il/sites/en/Pages/External.aspx/?&amp;type=3&amp;FD=-N12/09/2023&amp;LD=-N12/09/2023\" target=\"_blank\">Supreme Court of Israel</a> [in Hebrew], <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israels-full-high-court-hear-petitions-judiciary-law-101869713\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News</a>). The question will close upon the handing down of the court's decision on the case or other final action (e.g., dismissal), and a decision on any of the petitions before the court that outright strikes down the amendment would count. If the court does not reach a decision on the challenges to the amendment before 1 December 2023, the suspend date will be extended.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-08-17", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-18\", 0.98], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.8767], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.8575], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.686], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.6283], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5957], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5929], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5814], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5713], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5725], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5738], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5644], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.593], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5391], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5391], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.4755], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.47], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.4877], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.358], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.362], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.368], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.398], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.373], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.378], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.51], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.51], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.526], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.522], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.521], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.536], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.597], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.603], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.568], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.569], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.552], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.562], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.562], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.502], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.512], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.529], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.536], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.538], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.548], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.548], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.536], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.546], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.576], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.581], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.583], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.608], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.618], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.627], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.633], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.581], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.599], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.567], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.605], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.633], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.631], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.626], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.621], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.588], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.567], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.569], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.537], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.541], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.528], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.465], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.445], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.438], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.449], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.447], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.448], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.43], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.435], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.431], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4491], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.4527], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4636], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.4982], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5058], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5042], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5042], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.5133], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.555], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5542], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.575], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5542], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5592], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5667], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5742], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.6133], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.6208], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.625], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.6308], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.6392], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.6475], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.6517], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.6517], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.6492], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6617], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6667], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6742], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6758], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.6592], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.6854], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.6892], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.6762], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.6454], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.6492], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6454], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.5915], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.5723], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.5708], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.5477], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.5246], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.5208], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.5185], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.5092], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.5054], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.5015], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4862], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4777], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.4971], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.4571], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.4786], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.4821], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.4571], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.4507], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.4436], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.4193], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.4221], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.4221], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.4079], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.4007], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.4329], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.4357], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4271], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.4193], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.4214], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.398], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.368], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.3893], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.3927], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.3894], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.3831], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.3988], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.4388], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.4606], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5106], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5419], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5481], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5763], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5825], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5881], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5881]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.swiftcentre.org/israeli-judicial-reform-and-protests/\", \"https://israeliconstitutionalism.wordpress.com/2019/06/26/%D7%94%D7%90%D7%9E%D7%A0%D7%9D-%D7%A9%D7%97%D7%A7%D7%9F-%D7%99%D7%97%D7%99%D7%93%D7%AA%D7%99-%D7%94%D7%96%D7%9E%D7%A0%D7%94-%D7%9C%D7%93%D7%99%D7%95%D7%9F-%D7%90%D7%9E%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%99-%D7%9E/#_edn8\", \"http://www.deepl.com/Translator\", \"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-761278\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/opinion/international-world/israel-supreme-court-protest.html\", \"https://www.russellhartley.com/hi\", \"https://www.mei.edu/publications/understanding-legal-drama-israel-will-supreme-court-prevent-constitutional-crisis\", \"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/will-conservatives-finally-gain-control-of-supreme-court-651519\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/27/middleeast/israel-supreme-court-judicial-overhaul-netanyahu-mime-intl/index.html\", \"https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-779790\", \"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/supreme-court-gets-more-conservative-with-appointment-of-two-new-justices-543418\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-supreme-court-set-historic-judicial-overhaul-session-2023-09-11/\", \"https://www.jns.org/israel-news/yariv-levin/23/8/16/311191/\", \"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-754601\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/article/israel-judicial-overhaul-vote.html\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_restraint\", \"https://www.jns.org/israeli-high-court-prepares-to-strike-down-basic-law/\", \"https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-08-14/ty-article/.premium/israeli-doctors-call-on-supreme-court-to-strike-down-law-repealing-reasonableness-standard/00000189-f189-db6f-a1e9-f5bf274f0000\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-time-for-reason-will-the-high-court-strike-down-governments-reasonableness-law/amp/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Chinese property developer Country Garden default on any bond payments before 1 January 2024?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3015", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    <p>Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, generally referred to simply as Country Garden, is one of the few major property developers in China to have not defaulted on debt, but it has many bond payments due in the near term (<a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-09-07/analysis-default-dodged-but-country-gardens-upcoming-debt-payments-stir-worries\" target=\"_blank\">US News &amp; World Report</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/04/economy/china-country-garden-bond-payment-extension-intl-hnk/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/explainer-country-garden-bad-chinas-073859491.html\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo Finance</a>). The use of \"grace periods\" to delay payment and creditor-approved bond restructuring would not count (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grace_period.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia - Grace Period</a>). Default by its business segments or wholly-owned subsidiaries (e.g., Country\u00a0Garden\u00a0Real\u00a0Estate) would count.</p>", "date_begin": "2023-09-15", "date_close": "2023-10-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-15\", 0.0], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.4467], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.3525], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.382], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.41], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.3514], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.3325], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.3733], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.336], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3664], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3655], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3425], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3375], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3358], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.31], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3057], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.292], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.2894], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.2812], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.2856], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3137], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.2995], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.281], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.331], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.3629], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.3855], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.3781], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4176], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4245], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4424], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4176], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4271], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4742], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.478], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4838], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4886], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4945], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.4845], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.5105], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.511], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.546], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.5558], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.5611], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.5689], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.578], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.6228], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.6253], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.6321], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.574], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.558], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.5587], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.5553], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.562], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.564], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.5933], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.6073], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.6067], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.6156], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.6094], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.58], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.5913], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6063], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6176], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6224], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6247], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6224], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6182], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6112], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6159], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6076], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.6065], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.6059], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.6071], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.6059], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.6047], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5929], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5841], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5929], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5965], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6082], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5724], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5794], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5783], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5789], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5761], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.575], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5739], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5733], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.5711], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5556], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5556], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5556], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5506], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5394], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.5517], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.5656], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.6128], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.6117], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.6339], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.6394], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.6506], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.685], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.685], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.6878], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.6989], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.6994], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.6978], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6956], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.695], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7022], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7022], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7172], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7606], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7644], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7839], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7867], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7878], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.8067], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8106], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8144], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8206], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8206]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqA5NODRnQI\", \"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-25/country-garden-heiress-has-fortune-cut-in-half/102758274\", \"https://uk.news.yahoo.com/country-garden-signals-default-hires-011116350.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMs350-vzRbCuZBNQheiYw3cntUvqxj_1vT0aUpSjz-yef36qpX03GM5Iee7pbuzwXLxphwnzPsPj2m2fb0GVfcZ4MqeTtLW215NnuRNPchgAzQ5Hy5Z2H4R24T_hgH94WMf6S7h4AgXm0vYD_b9lpadDGh6Wtb1aGs0NMFBavMh\", \"https://archive.ph/0ipdy\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/10/economy/country-garden-debt-restructuring-intl-hnk/index.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-country-garden-offshore-debt-default-looms-2023-10-18/\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/9/18/chinas-country-garden-faces-payment-deadline-after-twice-dodging-default\", \"https://archive.ph/2A2Lg#selection-5679.0-5679.165\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/business/country-garden-default-china-real-estate-crisis.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-developer-country-garden-faces-fresh-offshore-payments-deadline-2023-10-09/\", \"https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79?mod=hp_lead_pos1\", \"https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/evergrande-s-plan-to-stave-off-collapse-is-running-into-trouble/ar-AA1hdywH?ocid=msedgntp&amp;cvid=e6944ef0463848059f84ce27683b9566&amp;ei=12\", \"https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79?st=lb0znzqvtpx3qjp&amp;reflink=article_copyURL_share\", \"https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79?\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sunac-country-garden-debt-deals-bring-respite-chinas-property-sector-2023-09-19/\", \"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-09-21-2023/card/country-garden-buys-more-time-with-more-bond-extensions-eB63qRkUlJXuidRIrAQq\", \"https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/10/chinese-property-development-giant-country-garden-is-on-the-verge-of-default\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/china/country-garden-default-dollar-bond-declared-first-time-bloomberg-news-2023-10-25/\", \"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/10/country-garden-says-it-may-not-be-able-to-repay-debt.html\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/country-garden-hires-advisers-for-holistic-solution\", \"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/country-garden-bond-coupon-payment-offshore-debt-potential-default-china-property-developer-3850986\", \"https://www.reuters.com/business/country-gardens-entire-offshore-debt-be-default-if-tuesday-payment-not-made-2023-10-16/\", \"https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinese-builder-country-garden-is-approved-to-roll-over-nine-onshore-bonds\", \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-country-garden-succumbs-to-debt-crisis-after-sales-drop-84c85a79\"]"}, {"question": "Will an end to diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and/or the UAE be officially announced before 1 January 2024?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3063", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "gjopen", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    <p>As the Israeli conflict in the Gaza Strip escalates after attacks in southern Israel in early October 2023, there are concerns that diplomatic relations between Israel and various Arab states could suffer (<a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/15/map-which-mena-countries-have-diplomatic-ties-with-israel\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href=\"https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-arab-allies-navigate-israel-ties-pro-palestinian-public-opinion-as-war-erupts/\" target=\"_blank\">Times of Israel</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/biden-israel-saudi-arabia-normalization-hamas-246213034afa75e4dff27e71362a1979\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.newarab.com/news/how-did-arab-states-react-hamas-attack-israel\" target=\"_blank\">New Arab</a>). The expulsion or recalling of some individuals alone would not count (e.g., <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-diplomats-090f136eebed1dd50c9a199e40360826\" target=\"_blank\">AP</a>).</p>", "date_begin": "2023-10-13", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-13\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3175], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.278], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2317], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2071], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1938], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2389], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2378], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2322], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.259], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.249], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2264], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2242], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2477], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.228], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2144], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2322], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2322], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2211], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2205], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2195], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2095], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2018], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.2039], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.1996], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.1936], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.1938], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.1941], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.1882], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.199], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.1948], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.1948], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.1917], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.1897], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.1852], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.1852], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.1838], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.1933], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2104], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2229], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2225], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2196], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.216], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2225], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2196], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2361], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2441], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2576], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2613], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2512], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2529], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2676], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2782], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2759], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2629], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2841], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3024], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.2776], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2782], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2618], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.2653], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.2644], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2594], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2539], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2539], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2506], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.2306], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.2383], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.2539], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.2572], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2628], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.2628], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.2611], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.2556], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.2567], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.2694], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.2721], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.2589], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.2668], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.2695], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.2579], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.2558], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.2611], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.2826], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.2974], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.2895], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.2947], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.2945], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.2975], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.3025], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.3145], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.3275], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.3275], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.3325], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.32], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.3155], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.338], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.338], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.3435], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.3445], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.3435], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3435], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3435], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.336], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.3165], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.3265], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.322], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.31], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.306], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.2925], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.2775], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.2815], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.279], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.2805], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.2765], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.2776], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.2729], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2852], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2795], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2709], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2705], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2591], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2455], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.2468], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.2445], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.2423], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.2309], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.1905], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.1905], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.1905], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.1882], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1836], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1745], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1764], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.1705], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.1718], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.1704], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.1496], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.1513], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.1504], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.1557], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.1548], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.1452], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.1435], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.1313], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.1248], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.1226], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.1222], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.1222], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1233], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1233], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1525], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.1283], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.1275], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.1263], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1192], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1032], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1012], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1338], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1031], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1023], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.0946], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.0946], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0946], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0912], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0896], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0892], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0908], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0896], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0896], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0896], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0846], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0838], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0846], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0846], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0838], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0819], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0808], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.0823], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.0815], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.0812], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0888], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0885], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0888], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0846], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0869], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0869], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0869], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.0837], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.0485], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.0481], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.0478], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.0474], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.0459], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.0463], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.0456], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.0437], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.0419], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.0515], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.0515], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.0496], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.0481], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.0481], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.0474], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.0463], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.05], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.0489], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.0396], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.0396], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.0382], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.0389], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.0375], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.0357], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.0462], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.0462], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.0462], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.045], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.0447], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.0447], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.0443], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.044], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.0442], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.0448], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.0448], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.0448], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.0434], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.0431], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.0347], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.0336], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0336], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.033], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0324], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.0324], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.0321], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0318], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0315], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0315]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.timesofisrael.com/jordan-recalls-ambassador-from-israel-to-protest-carnage-in-war-with-hamas/\", \"https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/11/01/Jordan-summons-its-ambassador-to-Israel-immediately\", \"https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-travel-to-israel-jordan-qatar-saudi-arabia-the-united-arab-emirates-and-egypt/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_blUhFsH3Sc\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/new-arab-allies-face-quandary-israel-shifts-hard-right-2023-01-05/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month?", "url": "https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1336", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "cset", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Intense fighting has broken out following an attack on Israel by Hamas (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-attack-10-09-23/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/08/israel-hamas-gaza-palestinian-territories\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-hamas-militants-conflict-war-b6ea877aa1ee96303aa0870d741da777\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>).\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using official announcements or news media reports that Hamas and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. The cessation of fighting without a negotiated agreement will not count toward resolution.\u00a0</div>", "date_begin": "2023-10-10", "date_close": "2023-11-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-12\", 0.0668], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0468], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0455], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0507], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0874], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0724], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0598], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0443], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0417], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0904], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1198], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1458], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1468], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1381], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.148], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1576], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1589], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1519], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1556], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.176], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1701], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1652], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1626], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1571], [\"2023-10-13\", 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[\"2023-11-22\", 0.597], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6265], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.643], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6535], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6554], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6557], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6597], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6618], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.6618]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month?", "url": "https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1336", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "cset", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Intense fighting has broken out following an attack on Israel by Hamas (<a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-attack-10-09-23/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/08/israel-hamas-gaza-palestinian-territories\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-hamas-militants-conflict-war-b6ea877aa1ee96303aa0870d741da777\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>).\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using official announcements or news media reports that Hamas and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. The cessation of fighting without a negotiated agreement will not count toward resolution.\u00a0</div>", "date_begin": "2023-10-10", "date_close": "2023-11-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-12\", 0.0668], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0468], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0455], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0507], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0874], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0724], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0598], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0443], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0417], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.0904], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1198], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1458], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1468], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1381], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.148], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1576], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1589], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1519], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1556], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.176], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1701], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1652], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1626], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1571], [\"2023-10-13\", 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\"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-government-debates-deal-release-gaza-hostages-truce-2023-11-21/\", \"https://mastodon.social/@fulelo@journa.host/111450100950438070\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/22/israel-hamas-war-hostages-freed-deal-ceasefire\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/11/21/israel-hamas-hostage-ceasefire-deal-imminent\", \"https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/6290742/netanyahu-israelische-gijzelaars-in-gaza-komen-in-groepjes-vrij.html\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67481139?ns_mchannel=social&amp;ns_source=twitter&amp;ns_campaign=bbc_live&amp;ns_linkname=655d7e792ea49e2bc009bc55%26Qatar%20says%20starting%20time%20of%20pause%20to%20be%20announced%20within%2024%20hours%262023-11-22T04%3A42%3A58.035Z&amp;ns_fee=0&amp;pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:90535a51-8f39-4068-88c1-b5f738fa0ed8&amp;pinned_post_asset_id=655d7e792ea49e2bc009bc55&amp;pinned_post_type=share\", \"https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-11-21/israel-hamas-agree-to-temporary-ceasefire-to-free-numerous-hostages\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/11/22/israel-hamas-war-live-israeli-government-to-vote-on-gaza-truce-deal\", \"https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1727281463152853126?s=46&amp;t=KhUG0DGDo8f3iN0xNO0Ndw\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/21/hamas-leader-israel-war-truce-close-ceasefire-hostages-gaza-palestine\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-netanyahu-hostages-i-hope-there-will-be-good-news-soon-2023-11-21/\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/21/benjamin-netanyahu-israel-hamas-hostage-release-deal-gaza\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67481139\", \"https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/cabinet-approves-deal-for-return-of-50-hostages-in-exchange-for-multi-day-ceasefire/amp/\", \"https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-21/ty-article-live/hamas-haniyeh-we-are-close-to-truce-netanyahu-freeing-hostages-is-sacred-mission/0000018b-f003-d36e-a3cb-f05725160000\", \"https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-ceasefire-what-to-know-af1cfbc9dcaa1485ed7a9efaca7ec2b7\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/white-house-says-israel-hamas-hostage-deal-closer-than-before-2023-11-21/\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/22/israel-hamas-war-gaza-palestine-hostages-release-deal-explained\", \"https://apple.news/AcAhBgq0gRdOFqKU9XnYCmw\"]"}, {"question": "Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?", "url": "https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1280", "resolution": 1.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "cset", "question_type": "binary", "background": "\r\n    Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to radically change the way music is created (<a href=\"https://www.berklee.edu/berklee-now/news/what-does-new-ai-technology-mean-for-artists\" target=\"_blank\">Berklee College of Music</a>). In April, the AI-generated song \u201cHeart on My Sleeve\u201d went viral, amassing 600,000 streams on Spotify before being pulled from the streaming service (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/apr/18/ai-song-featuring-fake-drake-and-weeknd-vocals-pulled-from-streaming-services\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>). This song was created using AI tools to make the vocals sound like they were performed by Drake and The Weeknd. These high-profile cases have brought conversations around AI music to the forefront and are the latest in a list of concerns around intellectual property rights, copyright law, and art (<a href=\"https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/1/23703087/ai-drake-the-weeknd-music-copyright-legal-battle-right-of-publicity\" target=\"_blank\">The Verge</a>). \u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>For the purposes of this question, \u201ca new song with AI-generated vocals\u201d refers to a song released in 2023 or later where AI was used to generate or perform the primary vocals or where AI is credited as a performer or artist of the song. Whether or not a song was AI-generated will be determined using official credits, statements by the humans involved in making the song, and/or reputable news media reports. To qualify for resolution, a song must show up in the artist's popular songs list with over 10 million streams, or reputable reports must indicate that the 10 million stream threshold has been crossed. A song written by AI (e.g., ChatGPT) but performed by humans would not count. The use of human vocals as an input into an AI vocal filter will count (<a href=\"https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/25/23696155/viral-drake-ai-repurposed-soundcloud-rap\" target=\"_blank\">example</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Additional Reading:</b></div><ul>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://gizmodo.com/grimes-elon-musk-openai-ai-music-elf-tech-1850409972\" target=\"_blank\">Grimes Launched a Platform to Help You Make AI Songs with Her Voice. Here's What It Sounds Like.</a> (Gizmodo)\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3mn75/scammer-made-thousands-selling-leaked-frank-ocean-tracks-that-were-fake-ai-generated-the-line-steer-it\" target=\"_blank\">Scammer Made Thousands Selling 'Leaked' Frank Ocean Tracks That Were Fake, AI-Generated</a> (Motherboard)\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/27/the-current-legal-cases-against-generative-ai-are-just-the-beginning/\" target=\"_blank\">The current legal cases against generative AI are just the beginning</a> (TechCrunch)\u00a0</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n  ", "date_begin": "2023-06-06", "date_close": "2023-09-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-15\", 0.3455], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.52], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.7686], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.6377], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.731], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.7973], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.8167], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.776], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.7847], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.863], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.867], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.7705], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.7583], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.737], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.7386], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.6858], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.6743], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.5293], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.5404], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.5777], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5758], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.6052], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.6079], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.6167], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.6251], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.6092], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.6383], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.6396], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.6455], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.6381], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.6598], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.6882], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.6945], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7018], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.709], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7091], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.711], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.7302], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.7085], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.6877], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.6974], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.699], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.7152], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.7325], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.7453], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.7383], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.7791], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.7973], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.8104], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.8129], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.8149], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.804], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.8103], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.8147], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.818], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.8215], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.8226], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.8281], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.7992], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.7975], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.7981], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.8036], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.8103], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.8127], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.8104], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.8147], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.8134], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.811], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.811], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.8159], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.8062], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.8122], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.8149], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.8123], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.8174], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.8146], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.812], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.8098], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.807], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.808], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.8124], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.8044], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.8015], 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0.7], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.7019], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.7009], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.7011], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.6968], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.6961], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.6996], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7006], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.699], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7007], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7021], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6997], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6992], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7009], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.702], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.706], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.7035], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.6992], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.6971], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.7025], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.7055]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://youtu.be/KgFTpwB_uII?si=sGtfGyjr54iLnMxf\", \"https://www.audiocipher.com/post/ai-voice-generators\", \"https://www.insider.com/timbaland-posthumous-ai-generated-notorious-big-album-2023-5\", \"https://open.spotify.com/intl-es/artist/0f0GqaVgzy5jJ4MTi4bTF4\", \"https://aespa.fandom.com/wiki/Naevis\", \"https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/12/23914915/ai-replicas-likeness-law-no-fakes-copyright\", \"https://twitter.com/chartdata/status/1720372145639813246\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lxbr0GehGnQ&amp;ab_channel=Reuters\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/oct/26/the-beatles-final-song-now-and-then-ai-technology\", \"https://www.businessofapps.com/data/spotify-statistics/\", \"https://open.spotify.com/playlist/0mNfehRu3rhtT1pGJrDWYt\", \"https://mashable.com/article/the-beatles-ai-enabled-now-and-then-song-release-date\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW55J2zE3N4\", \"https://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-ai-tool-songs-sound-like-favorite-singer-music-2023-10?r=US&amp;IR=T\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-beatles-new-song-release-now-and-then-ai/\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/nov/02/now-and-then-listen-to-the-final-beatles-song-john-lennon-paul-mccartney-ringo-george-harrison\", \"https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=newssearch&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjK3Ia0gaiCAxWzEFkFHfvaBmsQxfQBKAB6BAgKEAE&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fnews%2Fthe-beatles-new-song-release-now-and-then-ai%2F&amp;usg=AOvVaw1LZ3xGaFxJxDdOE_BWn1Af&amp;opi=89978449\", \"https://soundcharts.com/spotify-analytics\", \"https://www.nme.com/news/music/aespa-naevis-ai-debut-artist-vr-concert-kwangya-sxsw-3387209\", \"https://www.chosic.com/artist/ai-insider/2u8Kl5tlYMto1KtCafmzcs/\", \"https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/listen-to-the-last-new-beatles-song-with-john-paul-george-ringo-and-ai-tech-now-and-then/?utm_source=marketingcloud&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=BNA_110223151108+LISTEN+Last+new+Beatles+song+released+today_11_2_2023&amp;utm_term=\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/26/entertainment/paul-mccartney-emotional-beatles-song/index.html\", \"https://www.statista.com/topics/2075/spotify/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgFTpwB_uII&amp;t=34s&amp;ab_channel=TheBeatles\", \"https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/2/23943290/now-and-then-the-beatles-new-song-ai\"]"}, {"question": "Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?", "url": "https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1279", "resolution": 0.0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "cset", "question_type": "binary", "background": "Generative AI is transforming the entertainment industry and bringing AI-powered text-to-video tools to the masses (<a href=\"https://fortune.com/2023/02/14/tech-forward-everyday-ai-hollywood-movies/\" target=\"_blank\">Fortune</a>, <a href=\"https://mpost.io/7-best-text-to-video-ai-generators-powerful-and-free/\" target=\"_blank\">Mpost</a>). An AI text-to-video film won the Jury Award at Cannes in 2023 (<a href=\"https://thenextweb.com/news/text-to-image-generator-creates-award-winning-ai-film-the-crow?fbclid=IwAR2ePvzK3yYD3khIG8sIQaI3J7vG8skBInOOJ8vw2ocphyWBUxJV5vRws78\" target=\"_blank\">Nextweb</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:</b></div><div>The film, episode, or series must be at least 20 minutes in length, and whether or not a film or episode was AI-generated will be determined using official credits, statements by the humans involved in making it, and/or reputable news media reports. The use of non AI-generated video input into an AI-generator would still count (e.g., <i><a href=\"https://80.lv/articles/the-crow-an-ai-film-that-won-cannes-short-film-festival/\" target=\"_blank\">The Crow</a></i>). Having AI-generated components in only a few scenes, for background images, or parts of the video will not suffice (e.g., <i><a href=\"https://www.engadget.com/netflixs-dog-and-boy-anime-short-causes-outrage-for-incorporating-ai-generated-backgrounds-203035524.html\" target=\"_blank\">Dog and Boy</a></i>). A film or episode consisting of a series of still images will count as long as text-to-video technology was used to create them. A film or episode written by AI (e.g., ChatGPT) but otherwise created using traditional production methods would not count.</div>", "date_begin": "2023-06-06", "date_close": "2023-09-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-15\", 0.1796], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.512], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.6075], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.6252], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.4952], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2635], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2358], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.3123], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2766], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2724], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2502], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2437], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.176], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.1654], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.1605], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.151], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.1446], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.1224], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.1203], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.091], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.0533], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.0531], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.0521], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.0539], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.0485], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.0348], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.0292], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0285], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.0279], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.029], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.0409], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.0258], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.0256], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.0251], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.0246], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.0241], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.0239], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.0251], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.0275], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.0255], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.0258], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.0227], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.0225], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.0223], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0277], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0277], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0285], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0289], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0292], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.032], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.032], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0318], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0322], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.0292], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.0289], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.0284], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0282], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0827], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.082], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0819], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0819], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0822], 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0.0525], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.0501], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.0526], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.0417], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.041], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.0413], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.0518], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.0506], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.0499], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.0386], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.0356], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.0375], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.038], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.0372], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.0371], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.0369], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.0375], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.0373], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.0371], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0371], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0365], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0365], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0362], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0361], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0354], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0358], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0356], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0355], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0355], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0359], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0355], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0355], 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0.0135], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0129], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0133], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0124], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0124], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0124], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0122], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0119], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0118], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0116], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0115], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0113], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0114], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0118], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0118], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0118], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0116], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0114], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0112], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0112]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cined.com/netflix-uses-ai-to-generate-anime-short-film-reactions-follow/\", \"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66332876\", \"https://www.maginative.com/article/the-making-of-genesis-movie-trailer-midjourney-runway/\", \"https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/13/23794224/sag-aftra-actors-strike-ai-image-rights\", \"https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/news/netflix-shows-impacted-by-wga-and-sag-aftra-strike/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QW-NFkVDfdA\", \"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/private-investment-in-artificial-intelligence-by-focus-area?country=Medical+and+healthcare~Data+management~Cybersecurity~Industrial+automation~Semiconductors~Entertainment\", \"https://deadline.com/2023/07/writers-strike-hollywood-studios-deal-fight-wga-actors-1235434335/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/california-governor-gavin-newsom-hollywood-strike-df976d34120393b7e1f8be14c874c871\", \"https://www.wgacontract2023.org/strike/strike-rules-faq\", \"https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/netflix-ted-sarandos-sag-strike-1235673964/\", \"https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/netflix-lists-900000-ai-job-as-actors-and-writers-continue-to-strike-190037630.html\", \"https://fagenwasanni.com/ai/ai-generated-fake-tv-episode-released-during-writers-strike-raises-concerns/63537/\", \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/sag-strike-writers-movies-shows-delayed/\", \"https://www.sagaftrastrike.org/member-faqs\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CM6GnbAah4&amp;t=32s\", \"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/a-generative-ai-tech-startup-wayne-hills-bryant-ai-produces-sci-fi-film-an-ai-driven-new-cinema-movie-301880423.html\", \"https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/06/01/1073858/surreal-ai-generative-video-changing-film/\", \"https://theintercept.com/2023/07/25/strike-hollywood-ai-disney-netflix/\", \"https://boingboing.net/2023/07/28/disney-netflix-aggressively-hiring-ai-content-scabs-amid-writer-actor-strike.html\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p31COxNbTWs\", \"https://www.instagram.com/reel/CvN_FNrA6lE/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&amp;igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==\", \"https://waymark.com/post/humans-at-the-helm-what-gen-ai-means-for-creative-professionals\", \"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-lists-900000-ai-job-as-actors-and-writers-continue-to-strike-190037630.html\", \"https://twitter.com/ammaar/status/1685895966682234881\"]"}, {"question": "Will Wagner take Moscow by Tuesday?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-wagner-take-moscow-by-tuesday", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if forces affiliated with Wagner gain majority control of Moscow by Tuesday, June 27, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-06-24", "date_close": "2023-06-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'The Inventor' gross over $8m opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-inventor-gross-over-8m-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'The Inventor' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt5822848/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 15 - September 17) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018The Inventor' (2023) grosses more than $8,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by September 24, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-09-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-15\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.0125], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.0125], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.013], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.03], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.033], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-16\", 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You can find their announcement here: https://twitter.com/blur_io/status/1625566192906964993\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Blur season 2 ends by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 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if Saudi Arabia agrees to price oil sales to China in Yuan for at least 1 million tonnes of crude oil before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d otherwise. Sources for verification will include official statements or a consensus of credible reporting.\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-19", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.155], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/american-aid-to-israel-by-nov-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a bill granting a new aid package to Israel is signed into law in the United States by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 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31, 2023 inclusive (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be OpenSea Pro's finalized daily floor prices for the dates within this market's range (Milady Maker: https://pro.opensea.io/collection/milady/analytics, Azuki: https://pro.opensea.io/collection/azuki/analytics). If OpenSea Pro becomes unavailable, Blur may be used.", "date_begin": "2023-08-10", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.685], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.685], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.685], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.705], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.455], 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0.845]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://pro.opensea.io/collection/milady/analytics,\", \"https://pro.opensea.io/collection/azuki/analytics).\"]"}, {"question": "\u201cAll I want for Christmas is You\u201d #1 on Billboard Hot 100 first week of 2024?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-you-1-on-billboard-hot-100-first-week-of-2024", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Mariah Carey's \"All I want for Christmas is You\" is #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 6, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as data for the week of January 6 is released (Which typically occurs on the Tuesday, i.e. Jan 2). \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/).", "date_begin": "2023-12-26", "date_close": "2024-01-06", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.635], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.645], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.725], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.725], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.765], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.765], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.785], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.135], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.135], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.38], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.135], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.135], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.135], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.085], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.12], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0175], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0175], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0175], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.027], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0275], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.028], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.035], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.06], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.06], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.06], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.06], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.06], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.06], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.008], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.009], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0095], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0095], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0125], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.028], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0385], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.05], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.05], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0505], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0555], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.059], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0605], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.065], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.068], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0725], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0725], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.075], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.075], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.105], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.1155], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.125], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.432], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.0025]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/).\", \"https://twitter.com/billboardcharts/status/1742239194984993160\"]"}, {"question": "Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-another-nation-declare-war-in-the-israel-hamas-conflict", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if another sovereign nation officially declares war on either Israel or Hamas by December 31, 2023, ET. Declarations of war must be clear, explicit, and from a sovereign nation. The market will resolve to \"No\" if no such official declaration of war is made by the specified date. Note that Israel or Hamas declaring war is not considered for this market. Further note if e.g. Hezbollah declared war, it will not satisfy a \u201cYes\u201d resolution - only Lebanon itself declaring war will suffice. 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\"https://en.ypagency.net/313505\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Fed raise rates again in 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-raise-rates-again-in-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 5 and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET has passed.\n\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-05", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-05\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.405], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.405], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], 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market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' (2023) has a higher domestic opening weekend gross than 'The Marvels' (2023) on its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe respective \"Domestic Weekend\" tabs on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10545296/ (for days Nov 17 - 19) and https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ (for days Nov 10 - 12) will be used to resolve this market once the values for 'Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by November 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-11-15", "date_close": "2023-11-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-15\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.485], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.485], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.51], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.51], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.325], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.325], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.35], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.35], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.385], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.485], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.18], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.745], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.745], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0015]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10545296/\", \"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/\"]"}, {"question": "Temporary ceasefire for hostages deal by Nov 10?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/temporary-ceasefire-for-hostages-deal-by-nov-10", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel enters a ceasefire in exchange for hostages held by Hamas by November 10, 2023, 11:59 PM IST (UTC + 2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a ceasefire will be considered a publicly announced and mutually agreed upon halt in military engagement between Israel and Hamas. For this market to resolve \"Yes\", the referenced entities must enter the ceasefire and the hostages must be exchanged before the resolution date, regardless of the de facto length of the the ceasefire.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to whom any potential released hostages belong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-03", "date_close": "2023-11-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.0285], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.0285], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.0345], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.041], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.041], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.041], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.043], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.0605], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.061], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.1345], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.2615], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.009], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.024], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.024], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.024], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.027], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.0295], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.0045]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm3EYUUlbPU\", \"https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-771740\"]"}, {"question": "Will Sheikh Jassim buy Man United in 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-sheikh-jassim-buy-man-united-in-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sheikh Jassim agrees to acquires a controlling stake of Manchester United FC by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". This market will resolve immediately if any deal to acquire a controlling stake in Manchester United FC is reached, including other bidders.\n\nFor the purposes of this market a \"controlling stake\" is defined as at least 50% of Manchester United FC shares. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Manchester United FC as well as other official publicly-available information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-19", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.405], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0295], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/another-house-member-censured-by-nov-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "On November 8, the House voted to censure Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan due to her rhetoric about the Israel-Hamas war.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any other member of the U.S. House of Representatives is censured by the House by 11:59 PM ET, November 30, 2023. 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0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.043], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.04]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/sec-approves-first-spot-bitcoin-etf-on-jan-10", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the SEC makes a decision to approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF on January 10, 2024, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the SEC approves the first spot Bitcoin ETF before this date, this market will resolve to \"No\" immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC.", "date_begin": "2024-01-08", "date_close": "2024-01-10", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2024-01-08\", 0.54], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.375], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.48], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.52], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.52], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.545], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.545], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.545], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.55], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.57], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.58], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.595], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.66], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.675], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.695], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.73], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.74], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.74], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.74], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.745], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.77], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.79], [\"2024-01-09\", 0.79], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.53], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.625], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.655], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.685], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.69], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.695], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.7], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.7], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.705], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.715], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.72], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.72], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.725], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.73], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.745], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.745], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.79], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.81], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.85], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.855], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.905], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9945], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.9935], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.9965]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/crenshaw-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\", \"https://x.com/JSeyff/status/1712900403090559398?s=20\", \"https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1745079361034739994?s=20\"]"}, {"question": "Will Macron remain President of France through July 10?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-macron-remain-president-of-france-through-july-10", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Emmanuel Macron remains the President of France without interruption from July 3, 2023 through July 10, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for France, currently available at\u00a0https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/france/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-07-03", "date_close": "2023-07-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9955], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9955], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9955], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9985], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9985], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9985], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.9985], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.9955], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.9955], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.9955], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.9955], 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0.9955], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.9955], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.996], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.997], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.997]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/france/#government.\"]"}, {"question": "Will $ETH hit $2,500 by July 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-eth-hit-2500-by-july-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will immediately resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if any Coinbase 1 minute candle for ETH-USD between 13 Jul '23 12:00 and 31 Jul '23 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final \u201cHigh\u201d price of 2,500.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the ETH-USD \"High\" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/ETH-USD with \u201c1m\u201d and \u201cCandles\u201d selected on the top bar.\n\nTo see the \"High\" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value \"H\" at the top of the chart.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase ETH-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.", "date_begin": "2023-07-13", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-13\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.045], 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[\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.coinbase.com/,\", \"https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/ETH-USD\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 10 days?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-hamas-x-israel-ceasefire-last-10-days", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first ceasefire between Hamas and Israel pursuant to a hostage/prisoner exchange deal, which began on November 24, 2023, 7 AM IST (Israeli Standard Time), lasts at least 10 full days (240 consecutive hours). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible information and reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-11-28", "date_close": "2023-12-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-28\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.43], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.49], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.49], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.495], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.49], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.545], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.555], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.555], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.555], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.555], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.56], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.56], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.575], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.385], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.395], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.395], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.425], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.475], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.375], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.38], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.38], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.38]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1730456638161588558\"]"}, {"question": "Will Messi score in his next game?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-messi-score-in-his-next-game", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Lionel Messi scores in his next game for Inter Miami CF, scheduled for August 19, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official footage of the game, however a consensus of credible reporting (e.g. https://www.espn.com/soccer/player/_/id/45843/lionel-messi) will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-08-17", "date_close": "2023-08-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-17\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.665], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.665], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.665], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.98], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.9605], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.9605], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.97], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.97], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.97], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.98], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.98], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.98], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.98], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.98], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.98], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.9805], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.9805]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.espn.com/soccer/player/_/id/45843/lionel-messi)\"]"}, {"question": "Will Hunter Biden face new criminal charges before November 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-hunter-biden-face-new-criminal-charges-before-november-1", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if new criminal charges are filed against Hunter Biden before November 1, 2023, 12:00 AM ET. A \"new criminal charge\" is defined as a charge that has not been formally filed against him before September 18, 2023. If no new charges are filed by the resolution date, the market will resolve to \"No\". 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"data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "Bulletin Board Update - 2024-01-10 1:12 PM PT:\n\nIf it is confirmed the SEC pdf approving the first bitcoin spot ETFs was legitimate, then the close price of the candle at 1:43 PM PT (1 hour after @tier10k posted approval news) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the price of $BTC according to Coinbase BTC-USD is between $40,000.00 and $42,500.00 (inclusive) 1 hour after first Bitcoin spot ETF approval is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThe resolution source will be Coinbase BTC-USD, specifically the 1 minute candle close price one hour after the approval announcement. \n\nIf the first Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d", "date_begin": "2024-01-09", "date_close": "2024-01-14", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2024-01-09\", 0.495], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.002], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.015], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.027], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.028], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.028], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.028], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0285], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0285], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0285], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0305], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0305], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0355], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0355], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.038], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0385], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0385], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.045], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.045], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.05], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.05], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.055], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.055], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.385], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "2023 FIDE World Cup: Will Fabiano Caruana win top 3?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2023-fide-world-cup-will-fabiano-caruana-win-top-3", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Fabiano Caruana finishes in the top 3 of the 2023 FIDE World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis market may resolve immediately to \"No\" if it becomes impossible for Fabiano Caruana to win a top 3 position in the 2023 FIDE World Cup based on the rules of the tournament. Likewise, if it becomes a certainty that Fabiano Caruana will win a top 3 position in the 2023 FIDE World Cup, this market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf the 2023 FIDE World Cup top 3 are not decided by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament (e.g.\u00a0https://worldcup2023.fide.com/), including live footage.", "date_begin": "2023-07-27", "date_close": "2023-08-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-27\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-28\", 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[\"2023-08-19\", 0.71], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.705], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.705], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.84], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.525], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.525]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://worldcup2023.fide.com/),\"]"}, {"question": "Will \"Trump\" be said by every candidate in the 2nd RNC primary debate?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-said-by-every-candidate-in-the-2nd-rnc-primary-debate", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \"Trump\" or \"trump\" is said at least once by every participating candidate during the RNC primary debate scheduled for September 27, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMentions of the word trump need not specifically refer to any individual. For example if a candidate says \"My policies trump his!\" it will count.\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond October 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-09-26", "date_close": "2023-09-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-26\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.335], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.365], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.38], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.39], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.39], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.39], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.39], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.365]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Blue Beetle' gross over $13m this weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-blue-beetle-gross-over-13m-this-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Blue Beetle' (2023) will gross domestically this upcoming weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3693445889/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 25 - August 27) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Blue Beetle' (2023) grosses more than $13,000,000 on its August 25 - 27 weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by September 4, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-08-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-25\", 0.19], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.415], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.21], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.21], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.215], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.22], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.19], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0075], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0075], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0075], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0075], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0505], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0555], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0555], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0555], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.1255], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.2045], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0065], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0395], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0395], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0395], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2495], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2495], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2495], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2495], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2495]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3693445889/\"]"}, {"question": "Will X start charging all users?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-x-start-charging-all-users", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if X officially implements a policy requiring all users to pay a mandatory fee for accessing its platform by December 31st, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "date_begin": "2023-09-18", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-19\", 0.0375], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.038], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.041], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.041], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.041], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.043], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.043], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.06], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0425], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.022], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0225], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0225], 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\"Yes\" if the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl LVIII. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2024-01-06", "date_close": "2024-02-10", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2024-01-06\", 0.0055], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0055], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0055], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0055], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0055], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Confederate Memorial at Arlington Cemetery removed by Jan 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/confederate-memorial-at-arlington-cemetery-removed-by-jan-1", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "On Dec 19, a federal judge halted the removal of the confederate memorial at Arlington Cemetery, which was mandated by the Defense Department to be removed by Jan 1, 2024.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the confederate memorial at Arlington Cemetery in Virginia, USA is completely removed by January 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Arlington National Cemetery, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-12-19", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.745], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.745], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.745], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.745], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.745], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.925], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.925], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.945], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.945], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.9495], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.9495], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.9495], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.955], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.955], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.945], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9495], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9495], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9495], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9495], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9575], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9595], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9595], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9605], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.964], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.969], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9695], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9695], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9695], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9695], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9695], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.981], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.4995], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.649], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9615], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.962], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9625], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.971]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/video/crews-begin-removing-confederate-memorial-statue-at-arlington-national-cemetery/\", \"https://www.arlingtoncemetery.mil/Explore/Monuments-and-Memorials/Confederate-Memorial#:~:text=The%20statue%20stands%20on%20a,of%20Maryland%2C%20Kentucky%20and%20Missouri.\", \"https://twitter.com/BlueandGray1864/status/1738352358487179515\", \"https://twitter.com/KevinLevin/status/1738306470721081754/photo/2\", \"https://www.arlingtoncemetery.mil/Media/News/Post/13395/Confederate-Memorial-Removal-Update-and-Advisory\"]"}, {"question": "Will Nina Agdal win restraining order against Dillon Danis?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-nina-agdal-win-restraining-order-against-dillon-danis", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Nina Agdal is granted any type of restraining order against Dillon Danis by October 14, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Courts, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-06", "date_close": "2023-10-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.14], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.14], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.795], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.795], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.795], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.795], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.795], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.795], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its July meeting?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-raise-interest-rates-by-0-bps-after-its-july-meeting", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC\u2019s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 25-26, 2023 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if following the Federal Reserve's July 2023 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is exactly the same as the level it was prior to the meeting (namely it increased 0 bps). Otherwise, it will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC\u2019s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by August 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.", "date_begin": "2023-06-12", "date_close": "2023-07-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.505], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.505], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.31], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.315], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.33], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.33], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.33], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.33], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.33], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.33], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.34], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.27], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.315], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.315], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.315], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.315], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.315], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.315], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.32], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.32], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.325], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.325], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.345], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.345], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.345], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.345], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.315], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.315], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.32], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.32], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.32], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.32], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.32], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.32], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.325], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.325], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.325], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.325], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.325], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.325], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.325], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.335], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.28], 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[\"2023-06-20\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.29], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.265], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.28], 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Moller-Maersk announced they will pause all container shipments through the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on international shipping.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Maersk announces they will resume shipping through the Red Sea between December 18, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from Maersk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-12-18", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-18\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.295], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-19\", 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0.74], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.745], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.745], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.745], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.465], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.625], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.815], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.945]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/25/business/maersk-red-sea-suez-canal-intl-hnk?cid=ios_app\", \"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2023/12/22/red-sea-gulf-of-aden-situation\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/25/business/maersk-red-sea-suez-canal-intl-hnk/index.html\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/25/business/maersk-red-sea-suez-canal-intl-hnk?cid=ios_app\", \"https://www.ft.com/content/4af8ca2f-a34c-42cc-b0f8-8f4d30d35c5c\", \"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2023/12/22/red-sea-gulf-of-aden-situation\", \"https://goradar.ru/vessels_map.php?imo=563032800\", \"https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:4334359/mmsi:477430600/imo:9739680/vessel:MAERSK_GENOA\", \"https://www.maersk.com/schedules/vesselSchedules?vesselCode=SP3&fromDate=2023-12-26\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/maersk-schedules-dozens-vessels-travel-via-suez-canal-2023-12-27/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the US soldier be released from North Korea by July 25?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-soldier-be-released-from-north-korea-by-july-25", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "If the US soldier who crossed into North Korean territory on July 18, 2023, physically exits North Korean territory by July 25, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-18", "date_close": "2023-07-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.016], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.025], 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[\"2023-07-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Trump visit Israel by Nov 15?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-visit-israel-by-nov-15", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "If Donald J. Trump visits Israel between October 19 and November 15, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Trump enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-19", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity official information from the Spanish government and/or information published through the official website of the Kingdom of Spain's Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/opencms/es/elecciones-celebradas/elecciones-anteriores/) will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-06-13", "date_close": "2023-07-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.5], 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"multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas releases 12 or more hostages in any 24-hour period between December 1 and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 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"polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-01", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-08\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.43], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.175], 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[\"2024-01-01\", 0.0245]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling),\"]"}, {"question": "Will Trump smile in his mugshot?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-smile-in-his-mugshot", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald J. Trump is smiling in his front-view mugshot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis mugshot will resolve based on the first front-view mugshot released after this market's inception; if no mugshot is released by September 30, 2023 ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and/or official information from law enforcement. Determination as to whether Trump is smiling in his mugshot will be made by this market's decentralized resolver, UMA.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-03", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.2], 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[\"2023-08-19\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.285], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.365], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.365], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.37], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0235], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.255]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "US debt ceiling hike by June 2?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-debt-ceiling-hike-by-june-2", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the current debt ceiling for the US federal government is raised or suspended between May 16 and June 2, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe debt ceiling for the US federal government herein refers to the limit set by Title 31 of the U.S. Code, \u00a7 3101. Raising this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted creating a new debt limit greater than the legal limit in effect as of the creation of this market (5/16/2023). Suspending this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted that suspends application of the debt limit found in Title 31 U.S. Code \u00a7 3101 for any length of time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. federal government (e.g. https://www.congress.gov/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-06-01", "date_close": "2023-06-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-01\", 0.19], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.32], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.34], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.345], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.78], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.78], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.78], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.03], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.63], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.8], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.815], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.815], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.815], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.82], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.855], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.96], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.01]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.congress.gov/),\"]"}, {"question": "Will a LIV Golfer win The Open?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-liv-golfer-win-the-open", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any golfer contracted with LIV Golf wins The Open Championship (https://www.theopen.com/) in 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market may immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if all players remaining are LIV Golfers - likewise the market may immediately resolve to \"No\" if there are no remaining LIV golfers.\n\nIf for any reason the winner is not decided by August 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from The Open, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-18", "date_close": "2023-07-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.theopen.com/)\"]"}, {"question": "Drake's \"For All the Dogs\" over 350k sales week 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/drakes-for-all-the-dogs-over-350k-sales-week-1", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'For All the Dogs' has over 350,000 sales including streaming equivalents in its first week. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the \"HITS TOP 50\" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming. This market will resolve according to the figure in the column titled \"TOTAL\" once the list is finalized.\n\nIf the chart specified herein is rendered permanently unavailable or does not list 'For All the Dogs', another credible resolution source may be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-10-06", "date_close": "2023-10-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-06\", 0.685], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.645], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.67], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.675], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.695], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.725], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.725], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.725], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.725], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.725], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.915], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.935], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.935], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.935], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9445], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.949], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.96], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9605], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.965], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.965], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.965], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9725], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.9725], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9825], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9825], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9895], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9895], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9895], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9895], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9895], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9915], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9915], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9915], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.9915], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.925], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.925], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.925], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.925], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9915], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9915], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.992], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming.\"]"}, {"question": "Will unverified Twitter users be able to see more than 1k posts per day by July 10?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-unverified-twitter-users-be-able-to-see-more-than-1k-posts-per-day-by-july-10", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if unverified Twitter profiles are permitted to view over 1000 posts per day by July 10, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf \"new\" unverified accounts are unable to view more than 1000 posts per day, but other unverified Twitter accounts are able to, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Twitter, including information provided by Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.    ", "date_begin": "2023-07-03", "date_close": "2023-07-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.335], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.445], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.445], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.445], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.445], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.455], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.46], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.79], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.525], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.555], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.62], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.62], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.62], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.625], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.69], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.7], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.795], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.795], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.795], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.835], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.835], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.835], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.835], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.845], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.845], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.845], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.88], 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[\"2023-07-08\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.79], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.78], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.78], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.785], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.84], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.845], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.845], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.855], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.855], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.875], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.875], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.875], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.875], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.875], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.885], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.895], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.895], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.895], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.905], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.905], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.905], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.86], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.905], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.97], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.97], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.98], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.98], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.98], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.98], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.98], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.98], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.98], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Threads be the most popular app a week after launch?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-threads-be-the-most-popular-app-a-week-after-launch", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "Memorialization: Remini - AI Photo Enhancer was the #1 free iPhone app at resolution time. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Threads is the #1 free iPhone app on July 12, 12 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source is the US iPhone App Store's \"Top Free Apps\" chart, viewable here: https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone.\n\nThe Polymarket description will be updated with the #1 app at resolution time.", "date_begin": "2023-07-06", "date_close": "2023-07-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-06\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.795], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.885], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.97], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.885], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.905], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.345], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.765], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.155], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.295], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone.\"]"}, {"question": "Will a European team win LOL Worlds 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-european-team-win-lol-worlds-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an esports team from the Europe region wins 1st place in the League of Legends 2023 Season World Championship (Worlds 2023). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEuropean teams are as follows: MAD Lions, G2 Esports, Team BDS, Fnatic\n\nIf the winner of the Worlds 2023 is not determined by December 31, 2023 ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information provided directly from Riot Games (e.g. lolesports.com) and official footage of the tournament, however other credible reporting may be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-18", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.04], 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US confirm that aliens exist by August 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-august-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by August 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 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[\"2023-08-31\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0045], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0045], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0045], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0045], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0045], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0045], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0045], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0045], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0045], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0045], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0045]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/emmett-shear-still-ceo-of-openai-by-end-of-week", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmett Shear remains in the official position of CEO of OpenAI through Nov 26, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThe market will resolve to \"No\" if Emmett Shear has stepped down, been replaced, or otherwise ceased holding the position of CEO at OpenAI before the end of this week. \n\nResolution will be based on official OpenAI announcements or a consensus of credible media reporting. \n", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2023-11-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-20\", 0.435], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.58], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.635], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.66], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.93], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.475], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.625], 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[\"2023-11-22\", 0.625], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.058], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0585], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0585], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0655], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.066], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0695], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0725], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.073], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0735], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0795], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.106], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.112], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.1505], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0265], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.052], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0525], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.076], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.077], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0775], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0775], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0785], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0805], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.1075], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.1935], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.016]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/eshear/status/1727342399297630393\", \"https://twitter.com/eshear\", \"https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1727206187077370115),\"]"}, {"question": "Will Sergio Massa win by more than 5% in the 2023 Argentina Presidential election?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-sergio-massa-win-by-more-than-5-in-the-2023-argentina-presidential-election", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sergio Massa wins the second round of the 2023 Argentina Presidential election by a margin of more than 5%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by each candidate in the election. Valid votes are defined as votes cast for either Sergio Massa or Javier Milei, excluding votes that are blank, null, etc. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each candidate receives by the sum of all valid votes received by both candidates.\n\nFor example, if Massa receives 53% of the valid votes, and Milei receives 47% of the valid votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the Massa margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (Massa% - Milei% = Margin of Victory).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Argentine government (e.g. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/interior/dine).", "date_begin": "2023-11-15", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-16\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.39], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.39], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0055]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.argentina.gob.ar/interior/dine).\"]"}, {"question": "Will Coco Gauff win Women's US Open?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-coco-gauff-win-womens-us-open", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "The market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Cori Dionne \"Coco\" Gauff wins the 2023 US Open Women's Singles tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for Cori Gauff to win in Women's Singles based on the rules of the US Open, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the US Open (https://www.usopen.org/), however credible reporting may also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-05", "date_close": "2023-09-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-05\", 0.325], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.385], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.365], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.365], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.37], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.38], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.325], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.345], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.345], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.345], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.345], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.345], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.355], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.41], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.435], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.445], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.47], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.485], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.485], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.485], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.68], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.685], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.685], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.685], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.465], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.465], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.usopen.org/),\"]"}, {"question": "Will any New York Times staff face consequences for the Gaza hospital strike headline?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-new-york-times-staff-face-consequences-for-the-gaza-hospital-strike-headline", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any New York Times journalist or executive faces formal consequences as a direct result of the incorrect 'Israel strikes Gaza hospital' headline. Formal consequences may include, but are not limited to, termination, suspension or disciplinary action. Informal consequences such as negative publicity will not be considered. The market will resolve to \"No\" if no such action is taken by November 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Official announcements from The New York Times or confirmed reports from reputable news sources will be used to determine the resolution.", "date_begin": "2023-10-18", "date_close": "2023-11-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0605], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0605], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0845], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0845], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.067], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.075], 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Confirmation can come in various forms, including, but not limited to, social media posts, interviews, press releases, official statements, or a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf it's unclear whether or not they are in a romantic relationship, this market will resolve to the side with the stronger argument based on credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-10-30", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-30\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.22], 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[\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.05], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.05], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.05], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.05], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.05], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0645], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0645]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Barbie' gross over $170m on opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-barbie-gross-over-170m-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 21 - July 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Barbie' (2023) grosses more than $170,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf there is no final data available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-07-21", "date_close": "2023-07-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-21\", 0.455], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.18], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.185], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.245], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.245], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.255], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.255], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.295], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.295], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.455], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/\"]"}, {"question": "2023 FIDE World Cup: Will Magnus Carlsen win top 3?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2023-fide-world-cup-will-magnus-carlsen-win-top-3", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Magnus Carlsen finishes in the top 3 of the 2023 FIDE World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis market may resolve immediately to \"No\" if it becomes impossible for Magnus Carlsen to win a top 3 position in the 2023 FIDE World Cup based on the rules of the tournament. Likewise, if it becomes a certainty that Magnus Carlsen will win a top 3 position in the 2023 FIDE World Cup, this market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf the 2023 FIDE World Cup top 3 are not decided by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament (e.g.\u00a0https://worldcup2023.fide.com/), including live footage.", "date_begin": "2023-07-27", "date_close": "2023-08-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.55], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.545], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.605], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.605], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.635], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.64], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.64], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.64], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.64], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.64], 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"multiple_choice", "background": "On Tuesday, August 15, President Biden stated \"My wife, Jill, and I are going to travel to Hawaii as soon as we can\" in wake of the state's disastrous fires.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Biden visits Hawaii by Friday, August 18, 2023, 11:59 PM HST (Hawaii Standard Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Biden physically stepping onto Hawaiian land. The resolution source will be official information from the US government as well as a consensus of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-08-16", "date_close": "2023-08-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.0105], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.0255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.0265], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.03], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.042], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.55], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0045], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.001]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Dillon Danis back out of Logan Paul fight?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-dillon-danis-back-out-of-logan-paul-fight", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Dillon Danis pulls out of his fight with Logan Paul, presently scheduled for October 14, 2023 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from Dillon Danis or his representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-17", "date_close": "2023-10-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-17\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.215], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.37], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.11], 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"[]"}, {"question": "Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by EOY?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/yahya-sinwar-still-hamas-leader-by-eoy", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yahya Sinwar remains leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip uninterrupted from December 3 through December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-12-04", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-04\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.905], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.865], 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\"https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-yahya-sinwar-said-to-narrowly-evade-capture-by-idf-two-separate-times/\", \"https://www.i24news.tv/fr/actu/international/1703074295-riyad-propose-que-des-chefs-du-hamas-s-exilent-en-algerie\"]"}, {"question": "Will LeBron say COVID vaccine could've caused Bronny's cardiac arrest?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-lebron-say-covid-vaccine-couldve-caused-bronnys-cardiac-arrest", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if LeBron James states that the COVID vaccine could've caused Bronny James's cardiac arrest by July 31, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be statements verifiably made by LeBron James.", "date_begin": "2023-07-26", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-26\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.0055], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.011], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.251], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0105], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0105], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0105], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0105], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0105], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0105], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0105], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.0105], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.021], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Mbapp\u00e9 join a Saudi club this transfer window?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-mbapp\u00e9-join-a-saudi-club-this-transfer-window", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on whether Kylian Mbapp\u00e9 will sign for any football club in the Saudi Pro League in the Summer transfer window, which closes on September 1, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if it is announced that Mbapp\u00e9 has signed for any team in the Saudi Pro League during the transfer window. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will also resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it is announced that Mbapp\u00e9 has signed a contract extension with PSG or a new contract with any club not in the Saudi Pro League.\n\nIf a club announces that Mbapp\u00e9 has signed with them but later retracts that announcement, this market will resolve according to the initial announcement.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be official, credible announcements from either PSG or the signing club.", "date_begin": "2023-07-24", "date_close": "2023-09-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-24\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.28], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.525], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.21], 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Trump is elected to be the next US Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023. 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0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.456], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0275], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0275], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0275], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.028], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0285], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0285], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0285], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0285], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0285], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0285], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0205], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0205], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0205], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0205], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.021], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0235], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.0255], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0075], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.009], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.009], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.009], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0095], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0095], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0095], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0115], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0115], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0115], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0115], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.013], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0185], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0225]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will \"Ukraine\" be said 8 or more times in the 4th RNC primary debate?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-be-said-8-or-more-times-in-the-4th-rnc-primary-debate", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \"Ukraine\" is said 8 or more times by the invited candidates (in total) during the RNC primary debate scheduled for December 6, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, the demonym \"Ukrainian\" will also count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond December 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-12-05", "date_close": "2023-12-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.815], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.815], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.825], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.81], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.925], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.925], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9845], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9845], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.985]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Joy Ride' gross more than $13.5m on its 3-day opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-joy-ride-gross-more-than-135m-on-its-3-day-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Joy Ride' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2732688129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 07 - July 09) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Joy Ride' (2023) grosses more than $13,500,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by July 17, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-07-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-03\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.385], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2732688129/\"]"}, {"question": "ETH above $2,000 at end of August?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/eth-above-2000-at-end-of-august", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Coinbase 1 minute candle for ETH-USD 31 Aug '23 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \u201cClose\u201d price of 2000.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the ETH-USD \"Close\" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/ETH-USD with \u201c1m\u201d and \u201cCandles\u201d selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase ETH-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-03\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.215], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.105], 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\"https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/ETH-USD\"]"}, {"question": "Will Elon Musk be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-be-the-2023-time-person-of-the-year", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "If Elon Musk is named as TIME's Person of the Year for 2023, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, that this market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk is named TIME's Person of the Year either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, so long as Elon Musk is directly referenced. If, for example, the Person of the Year is \"Elon Musk and X\", this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If, however, the Person of the Year is the \"The X Team\", this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Time's cover and other Time webpages have different winners for the Person of the Year, only one of them has to mention Elon Musk as the winner for this market to resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThis market can resolve after the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 15, 2024 (11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve to \"No\".\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-18", "date_close": "2024-01-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.61], 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0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0095], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0105], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0125], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0135], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0225], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0275], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.009], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0095], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.0045]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.gambling.com/uk/news/latest-time-person-of-the-year-odds-2677600\", \"https://www.today.com/news/time-2022-person-of-the-year-shortlist-rcna60072\"]"}, {"question": "Will the next speaker be elected by Oct 10?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-next-speaker-be-elected-by-oct-10", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next speaker following Kevin McCarthy's ousting is elected by October 10, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, unelected or temporary Speakers will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-04", "date_close": "2023-10-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-04\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.0545], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.016], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.016], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.016], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.016], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.016], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.0535], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.054], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0155], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.015]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Greek Election: Will Syriza get more votes than PASOK?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/greek-election-will-syriza-get-more-votes-than-pasok", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Syriza (\u03a3\u03a5\u03a1\u0399\u0396\u0391, Coalition of the Radical Left \u2013 Progressive Alliance, \u03a3\u03c5\u03bd\u03b1\u03c3\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03bc\u03cc\u03c2 \u03a1\u03b9\u03b6\u03bf\u03c3\u03c0\u03b1\u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae\u03c2 \u0391\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03ac\u03c2 \u2013 \u03a0\u03c1\u03bf\u03bf\u03b4\u03b5\u03c5\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03a3\u03c5\u03bc\u03bc\u03b1\u03c7\u03af\u03b1) wins a greater number of votes than PASOK (\u03a0\u0391\u03a3\u039f\u039a, The Panhellenic Socialist Movement, \u03a0\u03b1\u03bd\u03b5\u03bb\u03bb\u03ae\u03bd\u03b9\u03bf \u03a3\u03bf\u03c3\u03b9\u03b1\u03bb\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u039a\u03af\u03bd\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1) in the 2023 Greek legislative election scheduled for June 25 after the results are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Greek government and/or information published through the official website of the Hellenic Republic's Ministry of the Interior (https://ekloges.ypes.gr/en). However, a consensus of credible media reports will also suffice to resolve this market.\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-06", "date_close": "2023-06-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.665], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.805], 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\"https://uaw.org/uaw-reaches-tentative-agreement-general-motors-bringing-ultium-cells-workers-master-agreement/\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/uaw-members-head-back-to-work/ar-AA1jiKE2\"]"}, {"question": "Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on December 1, 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-united-states-on-december-1-2023", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on December 1, 2023, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201c if, at the time of this market's resolution, Joe Biden is the President of the United States as officially substantiated by US government sources. 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[\"2023-12-01\", 0.999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.whitehouse.gov/;\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3' gross over $10m opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-my-big-fat-greek-wedding-3-gross-over-10m-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21103300 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 8 - September 10) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3' (2023) grosses more than $10,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by September 17, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-05", "date_close": "2023-09-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.705], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.705], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.705], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.705], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.705], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.58], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.605], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.63], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.13], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.245], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.255], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.255], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.255], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.025], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.205], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.205], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.205], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.275], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.275], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.275], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.365], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.325], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.325], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.325], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.355], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.355], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4155], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.47], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.4705], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.726], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.7345], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.975], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9995], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21103300\"]"}, {"question": "Will Nate Silver win the WSOP main event?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-nate-silver-win-the-wsop-main-event", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Nate Silver wins the 2023 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d \n\nNote - this market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if Nate Silver is eliminated. \n\nThe resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-12", "date_close": "2023-07-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-12\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.014], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.017], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.0205], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.0005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.017]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Barbie' gross over $90m on its second weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-barbie-gross-over-90m-on-its-second-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically on its second weekend. The \u201cDomestic Daily\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for each of the 3 days consisting of this movie's second weekend (July 28 - July 30) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Barbie' (2023) grosses more than $90,000,000 on its second weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf there is no final data available by August 7, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-07-24", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-24\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.455], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.475], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.37], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.385], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.445], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.485], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.545], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.555], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.555], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.555], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.515], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.555], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.625], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.645], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.645], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.65], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.65], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.665], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.665], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.665], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.67], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.67], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.67], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.67], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.67], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.67], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.515], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.52], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.57], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.575], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.575], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.575], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.605], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.605], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.645], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.665], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.67], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.675], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.69], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.7], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.635], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.64], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.645], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.655], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.67], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.675], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.68], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.685], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.685], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.73], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.73], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.745], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.745], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.77], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.805], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.79], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.805], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.905], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'The Exorcist: Believer' gross over $28m opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-exorcist-believer-gross-over-28m-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'The Exorcist: Believer' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt12921446/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 6 - October 8) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018The Exorcist: Believer' (2023) grosses more than $28,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by October 16, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-10-04", "date_close": "2023-10-09", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.355], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.355], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.49], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.525], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.525], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.525], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.525], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.39], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.445], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.445], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.445], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.445], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0295], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0295], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.001], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0195], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.0195], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.001]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt12921446/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Adam22 and Lena The Plug break up this month?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-adam22-and-lena-the-plug-break-up-this-month", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if either Adam22 or Lena The Plug publicly confirms their break-up by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. This can include direct statements or any unambiguous indicators of a break-up (e.g., \"single\" status updates on official social media accounts, etc.). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information released via their official social media accounts (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCj0V64c_IvFrDPqZHHl2mcQ, https://twitter.com/lenatheplug?lang=en, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-05", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-05\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.015], 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", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-kanye-announce-he-is-running-for-president-by-july-11", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kanye West (\"Ye\") announces that he is running for 2024 President of the United States of America between June 27 and July 11, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kanye West will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed to run for president of the United States, or whether he actually files to run for president in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kanye West (speech, social media, etc.) or his legal representation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-06-27", "date_close": "2023-07-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-27\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.25], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.06], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the results of this election aren't known by March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity official information from the Slovakian government and/or information published through the official website of Slovakia's Ministry of the Interior (https://www.minv.sk/?ministry-of-interior) will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-12", "date_close": "2023-09-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5], 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[\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.minv.sk/?ministry-of-interior)\"]"}, {"question": "Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-volcanic-eruption-by-nov-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "On Nov 11, 2023 Iceland declared a state of emergency after an intense string of earthquakes linked to a possible future volcanic eruption.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iceland has a volcanic eruption between Nov 15 and Nov 30, 11:59 PM Iceland Time (UTC + 0). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of media reporting as to whether an eruption occurred.  \n\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-16", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.56], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.59], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.595], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.62], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.485], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.485], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.495], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.505], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.51], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.535], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.545], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.545], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.565], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.58], 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[\"2023-11-24\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.145], 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[\"2023-11-27\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.089], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.093], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.094], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0305], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0305], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0305], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.031], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0525], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.053], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0765], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.079], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.081], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.082], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.083], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0875], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0875], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.088], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.025]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67402198\", \"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/iceland-volcano-earthquakes-grindavik-travel-b2449590.html\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-5QeLIn1FA\", \"https://livefromiceland.is/webcams/fagradalsfjall/\", \"https://www.livescience.com/live/news/iceland-volcano-reykjanes-peninsula\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/11/22/exp-iceland-volcano-helicopter-tour-pleitgen-pkg-112202aseg2-cnni-world.cnn\", \"https://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/volcanic-eruptions//\", \"https://www.ruv.is/english/2023-11-20-grindavik-and-reykjanes-peninsula-397706\", \"https://news.yahoo.com/iceland-volcano-live-met-office-071737521.html\"]"}, {"question": "Guatemala Presidential Election: Will Zury R\u00edos win?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/guatemala-presidential-election-will-zury-r\u00edos-win", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "Zury Mayt\u00e9 R\u00edos Sosa is seeking election to the presidency in the 2023 Guatemalan general election, currently scheduled to take place on June 25, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Zury R\u00edos wins the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result isn't known by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Guatemalan government (e.g. https://www.tse.org.gt/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-06-13", "date_close": "2023-06-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.53], 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[\"2023-08-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.015]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.tse.org.gt/),\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'Haunted Mansion' gross over $30m on opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-haunted-mansion-gross-over-30m-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Haunted Mansion' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl707822337/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 28 - July 30) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Haunted Mansion ' (2023) grosses more than $30,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by August 7th, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-07-24", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.64], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.78], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.785], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.79], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.795], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.845], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.665], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.665], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.665], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.685], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.79], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.645], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.645], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.665], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.685], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.73], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.185], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.185], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.285], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.285], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.305], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.305], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.385], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.395], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.405], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.41], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.44], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.48], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.185], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.185], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl707822337/\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $40m on its 4-day opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-gross-over-40m-on-its-4-day-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt9663764/credits/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (December 22 - December 25) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' (2023) grosses more than $40,000,000 on its 4-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 4-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-11-27", "date_close": "2023-12-25", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-18\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.225], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.455], 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"[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt9663764/credits/\"]"}, {"question": "Will DOJ charge Binance by Sep 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-doj-charge-binance-by-sep-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US Department of Justice (DOJ) files any charges against Binance and/or Binance.US by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the DOJ, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-01", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-01\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.19], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.155], 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"Will Coinbase list PEPE by July 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-coinbase-list-pepe-by-july-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if\u00a0coinbase.com\u00a0lists $PEPE (https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454Ce325dDbE47a25d4ec3d2311933) by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nCoinbase.com\u00a0listing $PEPE refers to\u00a0coinbase.com\u00a0opening spot trading for a pair with $PEPE by the resolution time.\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-11", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-11\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.07], 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0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "The 2023 Tour de France is the 110th edition of the Tour de France. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tadej Poga\u010dar wins the 2023 Tour de France general classification and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf for any reason the winner is not declared by July 31, 2023 (11 PM ET), this market will resolve to \"No\". Please note that any revisions to the results, after the champion receives the trophy, will have no bearing on this market.", "date_begin": "2023-07-03", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.46], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.46], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.46], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-05\", 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"extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Argentina presidential election go to a second round?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-argentina-presidential-election-go-to-a-second-round", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the 2023 Argentina presidential election requires a second round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Argentina's government (e.g. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/elecciones-2023), however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-10-17", "date_close": "2023-10-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.755], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.835], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.9905], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.9905], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.9905], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.9905], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.9905], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.9905]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.argentina.gob.ar/elecciones-2023),\"]"}, {"question": "Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight by July 15?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-and-zuck-announce-a-fight-by-july-15", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg both announce that they have agreed to fight one another by July 15, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, an \u201cannouncement\u201d will be defined as Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly confirming that a physical fight will take place. The fight itself does not need to take place prior to July 15 for this market to resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be any statements issued directly by both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg which confirm that a fight will take place.", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-07-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-30\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.185], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.135], 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will resolve to \"Yes\" if Mark Cuban announces that he is running for president of the United States of America in 2024, by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 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weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22687790/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 15 - September 17) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018A Haunting in Venice' (2023) grosses more than $14,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by September 24, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-09-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-15\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.425], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.47], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.48], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.57], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.57], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.655], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.655], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.655], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.655], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.655], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.655], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.655], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.765], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.81], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.815], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.845], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.75], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.815], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.815], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.815], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.815], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.815], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.815], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.82], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.82], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.825], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.845], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.87], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.95], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.955], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.96], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.96], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.97], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.97], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.97], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.97], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.925], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.945], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9645], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.965], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.965], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.965], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.975], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.975], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.985], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.985], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.985], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.985], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.985], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9895], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.9895], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.9895], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.9895], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.9945]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22687790/\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem' gross over $42.5m on its 5-day opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-mutant-mayhem-gross-over-425m-on-its-5-day-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl393904897/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (August 2 - August 6) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem' (2023) grosses more than $42,500,000 on its 5-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n5-day opening weekend is defined as the first Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo numbers under Domestic Daily for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by August 14th, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-07-31", "date_close": "2023-08-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.425], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.49], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.525], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.625], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.835], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.705], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.705], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.705], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.705], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.705], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.745], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.75], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.81], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.865], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.385], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.55], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.525], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.77], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.77], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.77], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.77], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.77], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.77], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.875], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.915], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.915], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.985], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.985], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.985], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.985], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl393904897/\"]"}, {"question": "BTC above $23,456.78 at end of September?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/btc-above-2345678-at-end-of-september", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Coinbase 1 minute candle for BTC-USD 30 Sept '23 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \u201cClose\u201d price of 23,456.79 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the BTC-USD \"Close\" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD with \u201c1m\u201d and \u201cCandles\u201d selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase BTC-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-01", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.74], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.745], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.745], [\"2023-09-02\", 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\"https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 21 - July 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Barbie' (2023) grosses more than $150,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf there is no final data available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-07-14", "date_close": "2023-07-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-15\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.155], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.75], 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The resolution source will be official statements from Harvard University or a consensus of credible reporting. If Gay is no longer holding the office for any reason by the stated date, the market will resolve to \"No\". If Gay departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n", "date_begin": "2023-12-06", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Education & Research", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.895], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 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"[\"https://manifold.markets/MaybeNotDepends/will-the-uma-first-vote-on-liz-magi\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-20/congress-widens-probe-of-harvard-s-gay-to-plagiarism-accusations\"]"}, {"question": "Will DOJ charge Binance by EoY?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-doj-charge-binance-by-eoy", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US Department of Justice (DOJ) files any charges against Binance and/or Binance.US by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the DOJ, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-28", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.545], 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[\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.32], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.575], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.925], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.93], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.955]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Barbie' has a domestic gross of at least two times the amount of 'Oppenheimer' on their opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe respective \"Domestic Weekend\" tabs on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1517268/ and https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15398776/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for their 3-day opening weekend (July 21-23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release.\n\nIf there is no final data available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-19", "date_close": "2023-07-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-19\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.635], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.635], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.745], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.745], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.785], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.795], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.845], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.875], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.875], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.885], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.515], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.57], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.77], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.345], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.415], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.445], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.485], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.525], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.55], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.555], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.635], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.635], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.685], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.265], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.28], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.705], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.195], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.265], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.335], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1517268/\", \"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15398776/\"]"}, {"question": "Hamas still in power in Gaza by Oct 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/hamas-still-in-power-in-gaza-by-oct-31", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip by Oct 31, 2023. \"Primary governing authority\" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority, the market will resolve to \"No\". In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with the majority of control will be considered the primary governing authority. This market will resolve according to credible reporting.\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-07", "date_close": "2023-11-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-07\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.755], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.76], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.76], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.775], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.775], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.785], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.79], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.79], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.845], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.645], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.67], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-09\", 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"[\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/us-and-israel-weigh-a-future-for-the-gaza-strip-without-hamas\"]"}, {"question": "Will Trump violate bail by September 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-violate-bail-by-september-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any judge rules that Donald J. Trump violated the conditions of his bail by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, all quote and reply tweets count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, but retweets will not count.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.\n\nPlease note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.", "date_begin": "2023-09-25", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-26\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.42], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.42], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.415], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.455], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.565], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.565], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.565], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.565], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.565], 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0.0425]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://x.com/monitoresequibo/status/1731506396452040934?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/vladimirpadrino/status/1732174924553318723\", \"https://x.com/ConflictsW/status/1732113229864697975?s=20\", \"https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1732138935239749780\"]"}, {"question": "Will Houthis seize another ship by December 8?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-houthis-seize-another-ship-by-december-8", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Houthis forcefully board and take control of another ship registered by any country besides Yemen between November 27 and December 8, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 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0.0495], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0495], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0495], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0495], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0495], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0495], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0495], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0495], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "OpenAI permanent CEO by Dec 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/openai-permanent-ceo-by-dec-31", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI announces a new permanent CEO by December 31, 2023 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements released by OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-17", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.315], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.48], 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[\"2023-11-28\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.9905], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.9935], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.9935]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' gross more than $70.5m on its 3-day opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-destiny-gross-more-than-705m-on-its-3-day-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2776598017/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 30 - July 02) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' (2023) grosses more than $70,500,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the number acquired by adding the Box Office Mojo figures under Domestic Daily for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by July 10, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. \n", "date_begin": "2023-06-28", "date_close": "2023-07-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-28\", 0.25], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.12], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.25], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.095], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.095], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.095], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2776598017/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in South Gaza by Dec 8?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-south-gaza-by-dec-8", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by Dec 8, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, Israel initiates a major ground offensive within Gaza, south of Wadi Gaza. A qualifying \"major ground offensive\" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves Israeli ground forces, and does not include smaller raids or special operations. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the event occurs before this market's expiry date, this market will resolve immediately.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-11-27", "date_close": "2023-12-08", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-28\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.38], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.31], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.315], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.33], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.33], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.33], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.33], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.565], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.595], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.67], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.675], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.445], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.465], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.655], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.665], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.875], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.925], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.97], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.9775], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.9775], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.945], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.949], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9655], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9775], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9795], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.982], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.982], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.982], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.982], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9875], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9895], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9895], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9895], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9895], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.994], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.9965]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-mum-amid-reports-ground-troops-operating-in-southern-gaza/\", \"https://twitter.com/TOIAlerts/status/1731375019115315699\", \"https://youtu.be/078LvtHRm98?si=gnjJj--txrCfVVOX\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/04/israel-extends-ground-offensive-into-southern-gaza-with-mission-in-north-almost-complete\"]"}, {"question": "Will Menendez announce resignation by EoY?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-menendez-announce-resignation-by-eoy", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Bob Menendez announces he is resigning from his position as United States Senator from New Jersey immediately or at a point before his present term is set to expire between September 22 and December 31, 2023 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Bob Menendez or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-22", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.295], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.295], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.295], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-26\", 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The result must be confirmed by the Heisman Trust's official announcement or credible sports news outlets. If any other player is awarded the Heisman Trophy for the 2023 season, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.09], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/will-mike-johnson-be-the-next-speaker", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Mike Johnson is elected to be the next US Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, unelected or temporary Speakers will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\nIf a new US Speaker of the House is not elected by June 30, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "date_begin": "2023-10-23", "date_close": "2024-06-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-23\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.039], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.069], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.1915], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.2775], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.605], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.605], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.725], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.787], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.8195], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.835], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.8375], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.8455], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.8455], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.8975], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.9155], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.9515], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.9805], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.9995], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.9995], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.2% from May to June 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-inflation-be-greater-than-02-from-may-to-june-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from May to June 2023. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the index increased by more than 0.2 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from May to June 2023 and \u201cNo\u201c otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS June 2023 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 12, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\n----\n\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.3%, the market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d, if it is 0.2%, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d).", "date_begin": "2023-06-12", "date_close": "2023-07-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 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0.5], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.315], 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0.24], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.245], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.245], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.265], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.61], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.61]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm),\"]"}, {"question": "Will Netherlands win the 2023 Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-netherlands-win-the-2023-womens-world-cup", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Netherlands is the Champion of FIFA Women's World Cup 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if the team is eliminated or otherwise has no path to victory based on the rules of the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023.\n\nIf no Champion of FIFA Women's World Cup 2023 is declared by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (e.g. https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/womens/womensworldcup/australia-new-zealand2023/scores-fixtures), including official footage from the World Cup, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-08-01", "date_close": "2023-08-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-02\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-02\", 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[\"2023-08-09\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.135]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/womens/womensworldcup/australia-new-zealand2023/scores-fixtures),\"]"}, {"question": "Will Niger's coup trigger military intervention?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-nigers-coup-trigger-military-intervention", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if troops from countries other than Niger conduct officially acknowledged offensive military operations within the sovereign territory of Niger between August 1, 2023 and August 14, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the intervention to count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, the officially acknowledged offensive military operations must involve that country's physical military presence within the sovereign territory of Niger. For the purposes of this market, \"offensive military operations\" resulting in a \"Yes\" resolution specifically do not include actions exclusively related to surveillance performed by aircraft, drones, satellites, etc.\n\nOfficial acknowledgement must include statements indicating foreign military intervention from the foreign government making the intervention.\n\nA consensus of credible reporting may be used to ascertain the validity of an official acknowledgement.", "date_begin": "2023-07-31", "date_close": "2023-08-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-01\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.13], 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[\"2023-08-09\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-10\", 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[\"2023-08-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0115], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0115], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0115], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0135], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.015], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0165], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.017], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0175], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0045], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0095], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0095], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0095], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0095], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0095], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.004]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Adam D'Angelo leaves OpenAI board by Nov 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/adam-dangelo-leaves-openai-board-by-nov-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is announced Adam D'Angelo will leave or is removed from the OpenAI board by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nNote that an announcement before the end date that he will be leaving the board will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of when his departure takes effect.\n\nConfirmation should come from an official announcement made by OpenAI or Adam D'Angelo himself, however a definitive consensus of credible media sources may be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-22", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.505], 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[\"2023-11-29\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.017], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Kevin McCarthy resign from the House by Nov 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-kevin-mccarthy-resign-from-the-house-by-nov-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kevin McCarthy announces his resignation from his position as a member of the US House of Representatives by 11:59 PM ET, November 30, 2023. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\" \n\nFor the purposes of this market, a resignation is defined as Kevin McCarthy formally announcing his intention to step down, or his resignation being reported by a reputable source, such as a government website or major news outlet. \n\nNote that if he announces he will resign from the House by the resolution date it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of when or if the resignation actually occurs.", "date_begin": "2023-11-12", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.0295], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.0295], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.0295], [\"2023-11-13\", 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nKorean teams are as follows: Gen.G, T1, KT Rolster, Dplus KIA\n\nIf the winner of the Worlds 2023 is not determined by December 31, 2023 ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information provided directly from Riot Games (e.g. lolesports.com) and official footage of the tournament, however other credible reporting may be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-18", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.38], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.38], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.375], 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Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\" \n\nThis market may immediately resolve to \"No\" if the Arizona Diamondbacks are eliminated during the playoffs. 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[\"2023-10-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the Epstein documents name Donald Trump?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-epstein-documents-name-donald-trump", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "On Dec 19, Federal Judge Loretta Preska ordered documents containing names of Jeffrey Epstein's associates to be unsealed.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the mentioned documents contain any mention of Donald J. Trump. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the mentioned documents are not unsealed by February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-12-20", "date_close": "2024-02-29", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-20\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.035], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.0545], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-21\", 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Declarations of war must be clear and explicit. The market will resolve to \"No\" if no such official declaration of war is made by the specified date. Note that Israel or Hamas declaring war is not considered for this market.", "date_begin": "2023-10-30", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-30\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-31\", 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Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, unelected or temporary Speakers will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0105], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.015], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.355], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.435], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.44], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.445], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4525], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.515], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.515], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0105]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Sweden join NATO by October 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-sweden-join-nato-by-october-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-12", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-12\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.84], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.785], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.785], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.785], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.785], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.795], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-13\", 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\"Yes\" if Syriza (\u03a3\u03a5\u03a1\u0399\u0396\u0391, Coalition of the Radical Left \u2013 Progressive Alliance, \u03a3\u03c5\u03bd\u03b1\u03c3\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03bc\u03cc\u03c2 \u03a1\u03b9\u03b6\u03bf\u03c3\u03c0\u03b1\u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae\u03c2 \u0391\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03ac\u03c2 \u2013 \u03a0\u03c1\u03bf\u03bf\u03b4\u03b5\u03c5\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03a3\u03c5\u03bc\u03bc\u03b1\u03c7\u03af\u03b1)) gets over 20% of votes in the 2023 Greek legislative election scheduled for June 25 after the results are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nUnrounded percent of the vote will be used for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Greek government and/or information published through the official website of the Hellenic Republic's Ministry of the Interior (https://ekloges.ypes.gr/en). However, a consensus of credible media reports will also suffice to resolve this market.\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-06", "date_close": "2023-06-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.455], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNeither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to \u201cYes\u201c.\n\nIf President Joseph Biden for any reason ceases to be POTUS before being impeached by September 30, 2023 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-25", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.03], 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"[]"}, {"question": "Guatemala Presidential Election: Will Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo win?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/guatemala-presidential-election-will-bernardo-ar\u00e9valo-win", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo wins the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result isn't known by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Guatemalan government (e.g. https://www.tse.org.gt/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-07-06", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.5], 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[\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9995], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.9925]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.tse.org.gt/),\"]"}, {"question": "Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Oct 14?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-deploy-ground-forces-in-israel-by-oct-14", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially deploys ground forces in Israel in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas on or before October 14, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Deployment is defined as Hezbollah sending troops to engage in combat against Israel. This market will resolve according to a consensus of credible sources. If no such deployment occurs by the resolution date, the market will resolve to \"No\". Note that the market may resolve before the expiry date if Hezbollah's deployment of ground forces in the war is confirmed prior to this date.\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-07", "date_close": "2023-10-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.34], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.07], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0265], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.051], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0515], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0605], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.061], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0755], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0755], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0755], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0755], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0755], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0755], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0755], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.026], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0265], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0265]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "US debt ceiling hike by June 3?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-debt-ceiling-hike-by-june-3", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the current debt ceiling for the US federal government is raised or suspended between May 16 and June 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe debt ceiling for the US federal government herein refers to the limit set by Title 31 of the U.S. Code, \u00a7 3101. Raising this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted creating a new debt limit greater than the legal limit in effect as of the creation of this market (5/16/2023). Suspending this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted that suspends application of the debt limit found in Title 31 U.S. Code \u00a7 3101 for any length of time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. federal government (e.g. https://www.congress.gov/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-06-02", "date_close": "2023-06-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-02\", 0.72], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.855], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.86], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.78], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.785], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.785], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.785], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.8], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.8], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.935], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.935], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.935], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.935], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.94], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.congress.gov/),\"]"}, {"question": "Will VVD win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-vvd-win-a-plurality-in-the-2023-dutch-general-election", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy) controls a greater number of seats in the House of Representatives than any other party after the results of the 2023 Dutch general election are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the results of this election aren't known by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity official information from the government of the Netherlands and/or information published through the official website of the Dutch electoral council (https://english.kiesraad.nl/) will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-16", "date_close": "2023-11-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-17\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.32], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.425], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.345], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.525], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.63], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0105]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://english.kiesraad.nl/)\"]"}, {"question": "Will KO get over 31% of votes in the 2023 Polish parliamentary election?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ko-get-over-31-of-votes-in-the-2023-polish-parliamentary-election", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if KO (Koalicja Obywatelska, The Civic Coalition) gets over 31% of votes for the Sejm in the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections currently scheduled for October 15. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the results of this election aren't known by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity official information from the Polish government and/or information published through the official website of Poland's National Electoral Commission (PKW) (https://wybory.gov.pl/index/index.html) will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-04", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe evidence must unequivocally demonstrate that the Israeli government or intelligence apparatus had substantial and specific information about an attack by Hamas prior to its occurrence and deliberately chose not to act. Generic or vague alerts, warnings, or intelligence without direct link to the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas will not be considered sufficient for this market's resolution.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-10-10", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.0645], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-11\", 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Hamas releases 20 or more hostages in any 24-hour period between November 15 and November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a negotiated release of hostages will trigger a \"Yes\" resolution. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon the release of 20+ hostages in a 24 hour period. \n\nIf Hamas releases hostages on the last day within this market's range, the 24 hour period will commence starting with the release of the first hostage (e.g. if a first hostage is released on Nov 30, 2 PM ET, the 24h period will be from Nov 30, 2 PM ET to Dec 1, 2 PM ET).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to whom any potential released hostages belong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-16", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-16\", 0.33], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-16\", 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"https://polymarket.com/event/liz-magill-still-upenn-president-by-end-of-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elizabeth \u201cLiz\u201d Magill remains President the University of Pennsylvania until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023. The resolution source will be official statements from the University of Pennsylvania or a consensus of credible reporting. If Magill is no longer holding the office for any reason by the stated date, the market will resolve to \"No\". If Magill departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n", "date_begin": "2023-12-06", "date_close": "2023-12-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Education & Research", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.885], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.895], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.865], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.895], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.895], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.895], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.905], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.905], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.905], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.225], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.24], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.355], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.025], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.1305], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.355], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.525], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.102], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1305], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1305], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1305], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.159], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.166], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.17], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.176], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.18], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1825], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1825], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1825], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1825], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1825], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1825], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1835], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1835], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1845], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1845], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1845], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1845], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1935], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.334], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1055], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.139], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1465], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1465], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1515], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1515], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1515], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1515], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.152], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.152], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.179], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.179], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1795], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1795], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1795], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1795], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1795], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1795], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1795], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1795], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.1795], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.18], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0105], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.1545], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.1545], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.1545], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.1685], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.197], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2025], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2055], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2055], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2055], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2175], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2185], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.223], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2275], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.24], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.327]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN1WwnEDWAM\", \"https://www.karlstack.com/p/the-curious-case-of-claudine-gay\", \"https://x.com/realchrisrufo/status/1733976372450853222?s=46&t=WEdYaQUpd7REVy8JJUq1DQ\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/us/university-of-pennsylvania-president-resigns.html#:~:text=The%20president%20of%20the%20University,of%20Jews%20should%20be%20punished.\", \"https://penntoday.upenn.edu/announcements/message-from-scott-bok\", \"https://www.thedp.com/article/2023/12/penn-live-updates-interim-president\"]"}, {"question": "Will Trump post on Threads by July 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-post-on-threads-by-july-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald J. Trump posts on Threads, Instagram's new social media app, by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a repost will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution. Only a new thread, a quote thread, or a reply by Trump will trigger a \"Yes\" resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a post by Trump on Threads, however a consensus of credible media reporting may be used to verify the authenticity of the post.", "date_begin": "2023-07-06", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-06\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/will-transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-gross-over-45-million-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much \u2018Transformers: Rise of the Beasts' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1606320641/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 9 - 11) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Transformers: Rise of the Beasts\u2019 grosses more than $45,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by June 19, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-06-05", "date_close": "2023-06-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.85], 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[\"2023-06-08\", 0.83], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.83], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.83], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.83], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.83], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.83], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.885], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.89], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.89], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.89], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.89], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.89], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.94], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1606320641/\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'The Flash' gross over $100m on opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-flash-gross-over-100m-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much \u2018The Flash' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2225635841/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 16 - 18) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018The Flash\u2019 grosses more than $100,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by June 26, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-06-09", "date_close": "2023-06-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-09\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.03], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.03], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-15\", 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0.01], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2225635841/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Trump attend the first RNC debate?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-attend-the-first-rnc-debate", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if ex-President Donald J. Trump participates in the first Republican National Committee (RNC)-sanctioned presidential primary debate, currently scheduled for August 23, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"participation\" will be defined as Trump directly participating in the debate by speaking at least once during the debate, and being acknowledged by the moderator of the debate. If Trump is a remote participant in this debate, this market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf this debate is split into multiple debates over multiple days, all days or rounds included in the debate will be considered toward the resolution of this market. If this debate is cancelled, delayed or rescheduled to a start date after September 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. \n", "date_begin": "2023-06-13", "date_close": "2023-08-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.56], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.56], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.545], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.545], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.585], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.64], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.64], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.64], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.645], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.645], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.645], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-14\", 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0.0715], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.0715], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.0715], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.0715], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.0715], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.0715], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.0755], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.016], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.039], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.039], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.039], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.039], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0465], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0055]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Detroit Pistons longest single-season losing streak in NBA history (>26 games)?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/detroit-pistons-longest-single-season-losing-streak-in-nba-history-26-games", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "At the time of this market's inception, the Detroit Pistons have lost 23 games in a row in the 2023-24 season. The record for the longest single-season losing streak in NBA history is 26.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Detroit Pistons lose 27 games in a row in their current losing streak. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the Pistons win any of their next four games, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote if they tie for the longest single-season losing streak at 26 games, it will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" - they must lose 27 games in a row. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA, including game footage, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-12-18", "date_close": "2023-12-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-18\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.415], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.415], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.415], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.465], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.465], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.465], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.465], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.35], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.415], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.435], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.435], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.435], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.435], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.435], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.435], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.355], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.635], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.635], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.635], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.645], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.645], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.625], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.625], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.625], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.625], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.625], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.625], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.715], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.725], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.725], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.775], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.785], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.755], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.715], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.705], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.765], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.9955], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.9955]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/038/641/983.jpg\", \"https://twitter.com/BrickMuse/status/1739044649124446659\"]"}, {"question": "Sam Altman announces new company by Nov 24?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/sam-altman-announces-new-company-by-nov-24", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sam Altman officially announces the creation of a new company where he holds a significant position (such as founder, co-founder, CEO, etc.) by November 24, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\" \n\nThe announcement must be public and verifiable, and can come via a variety of official channels, including but not limited to, Sam Altman's verified social media accounts, press releases, media reports, or official company announcements. For clarity, the announcement must explicitly reference the creation of a new company and not merely imply it. Note that an announcement by the resolution date of a new company suffices - the company need not be created by the resolution date.", "date_begin": "2023-11-18", "date_close": "2023-11-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.175], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.18], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.225], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.225], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0545], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0625], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0625], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0705], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.071], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0715], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0725], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0775], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0955], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.1305], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.18], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0285], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0385], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0475], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0475], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.048], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.034], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0345], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0345], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0345], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.001]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-egypt-open-its-border-for-palestinian-refugees-by-nov-30", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe \"Yes\" criterion includes the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism that intends to allow the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-31", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-31\", 0.455], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.455], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.455], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.455], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.655], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.535], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.535], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.575], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.575], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.8605], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.877], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9075], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9195], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.985], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.848], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9155], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.93]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-oct-31", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (UTC +3), Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza. A \"major ground offensive\" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves greater than 1000 Israeli ground forces, and does not include smaller raids or special operations. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe market will resolve to \"No\" if no such major ground offensive takes place in Gaza by the Israeli forces by October 31. If the event occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately.\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-17", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.765], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.765], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.765], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.855], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.865], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.785], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.785], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.545], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.645], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.645], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.655], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.695], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.795], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.805], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.815], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.55], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.585], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.625], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.645], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.645], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.54], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.54], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.55], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.575], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.605], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.625], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.625], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.625], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.435], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.435], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.455], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.455], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.465], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.465], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.405], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.48], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.485], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.35], 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0.275], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.685], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.705], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.8455], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.854], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.8695], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.891], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.892], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.8955], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.896], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.913], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.914], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.914], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9145], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.915], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9175], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9205], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9255], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9255], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.931], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.936], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9375], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9405], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.943], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9465], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.923], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9235], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9235], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9235], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.924], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.924], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.924], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9255], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9255], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9295], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9305], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9305], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9305], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9305], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.937], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9425], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9475], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.955], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.965], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.965], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.966], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9715], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.972], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9245], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.956], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9575], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9575], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9585], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9595], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.963], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.967], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.969], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.969], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.969], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9695], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9695], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9695], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9695], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9695], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9705], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9705], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.971], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.971], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.972], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9675], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.971], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.994], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.994], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.994], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.994], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.994], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.994], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9955], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.997], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.997], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9975], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9975], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/30/heavy-clashes-as-israeli-tanks-reach-gaza-city-outskirts-cut-key-road\", \"https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1717999867442729329\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1717998934432326131\", \"https://www.youtube.com/live/qMyXv6rtzXk?si=3GKA7nUmzaX-zbN0\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-10-28-23/h_408c7c7285329da127a0d27cecf8b774\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-20/us-pressing-israel-to-delay-gaza-invasion-to-win-hostage-release#xj4y7vzkg\", \"https://twitter.com/region776/status/1718116693527138474?t=GPu0qZOpM0rb3yNK4p1uPg&s=19\", \"https://twitter.com/never_turn_left/status/1717755960540688443?t=nEle7UV3MyyyvNXfi4Ha9w&s=19\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1718051082344038597\", \"https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1717401249199329634\", \"https://twitter.com/muslimthoughtz1/status/1717433568777875920\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/27/israel-hamas-ground-invasion-gaza\", \"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-palestinians-news/card/israel-agrees-to-delay-invasion-of-gaza-so-u-s-can-rush-missile-defenses-to-region-wFU3kduhruPhm6e8OM7b\", \"https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1718312436380340443).\", \"https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1718609906834473097\", \"https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-770418\", \"https://x.com/israelradar_com/status/1718003753641451540?s=46\", \"https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2023/10/28/2979369/5-000-us-troops-involved-in-israeli-land-war-on-gaza-exclusive\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/29/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news/heres-the-latest-on-the-war?smid=url-share\", \"https://media2.giphy.com/media/5mBE2MiMVFITS/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47844jndv5kvvtmow0qius4dygh1wu7ns0xgbzstul&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g\", \"https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/il-portavoce-delle-forze-di-difesa-israeliane-lincursione-di-terra-in-corso-non-e-unoffensiva-su-larga-scala/\", \"https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/28/israel-gaza-ground-forces-troops-invasion-war-hamas-blackout-civilians-hostages/\", \"https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/26/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-ground-offensive-gaza-intl/index.html\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/eu-calls-humanitarian-pauses-gaza-aid-israel-raids-enclave-2023-10-26/\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-29-2023/\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-tanks-troops-briefly-push-into-gaza-strip-ahead-of-ground-offensive/\", \"https://twitter.com/indianaftali/status/1718072195937701914?t=tDoMTsZGT8yDrNRh4sz0Fg&s=19\", \"https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-world/news-israel-suspends-ground-operation-in-gaza-strip-the-new-york-times-29-10-2023.html\", \"https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-gaza-ground-raid-biggest-incursion-of-conflict-so-far-as-idf-prepares-battlefield-12992876\", \"https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-tanks-troops-briefly-push-into-gaza-strip-ahead-of-ground-offensive/\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/22/politics/us-israel-ground-incursion-delay/index.html\", \"https://twitter.com/marionawfal/status/1718018781425926593\", \"https://embed.indiatoday.in/share/video/embed/11316\", \"https://vote.uma.xyz/.\", \"https://vote.uma.xyz/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-egypt-open-its-border-for-palestinian-refugees-by-nov-1", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by November 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe \"Yes\" criterion includes the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism that intends to allow the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-15", "date_close": "2023-11-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-15\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.185], 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\"https://www.aviationanalysis.net/egyptian-media-rafah-crossing-is-open-tomorrow-to-transport-wounded-palestinians-outside/\", \"https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2278262339506\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/31/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news/57dab29a-7a97-5f57-abce-364c0ebf3a9e?smid=url-share\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/foreigners-begin-exit-from-gaza-through-rafah-crossing?embedded-checkout=true\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/israel-palestine-hamas-gaza-rafah-border-crossing-egypt/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-jets-strike-gaza-camp-says-hamas-commander-killed-2023-11-01/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=110123&user_email=8d1d973253b2422c2daa0bf3ef711fa99acf343cd02d1298c10f33b74b3cb1b8\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/1/egypt-opens-rafah-crossing-for-limited-number-of-gaza-patients\", \"https://x.com/BRICSNewsFR/status/1719720900247900402?s=20\", \"https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1719648755283014123?s=20\", \"https://www.ochaopt.org/sites/default/files/gaza_thematic_6_0.pdf\"]"}, {"question": "Will Ohio\u2019s abortion referendum pass?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ohios-abortion-referendum-pass", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "Ohio Issue 1 (the Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative) is an initiated constitutional amendment that seeks to guarantee certain rights to access abortion-related healthcare in Ohio. A vote on Ohio Issue 1 is scheduled for November 7, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ohio Issue 1 passes in the Nov 7 vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, however if there is any ambiguity regarding the results of this vote, this market will resolve according to official governmental information (e.g. https://www.ohiosos.gov/).", "date_begin": "2023-11-06", "date_close": "2023-11-07", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.855], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.855], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.93], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.9975], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.9985], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.ohiosos.gov/).\"]"}, {"question": "Will Russia & Ukraine declare a ceasefire by EOY?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia--ukraine-declare-a-ceasefire-by-eoy", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "[From ACX Mini-Grants: Impact Markets]\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official announcement of a ceasefire agreement, regardless of the ceasefire's length, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe ceasefire agreement must be acknowledged and accepted by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments to be considered valid. The ceasefire must apply to the entire territory of Ukraine as defined by the UN, including all regions currently involved in the conflict, to be considered valid.\n\nThe specific date that the ceasefire agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced before this market's end time.", "date_begin": "2023-07-12", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-13\", 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"structural damage\" means a significant impairment to the integrity of the whole or part of the structure.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Determination as to whether the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has suffered structural damage will be made by this market's decentralized resolver, UMA.", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.07], 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\u03a3\u03bf\u03c3\u03b9\u03b1\u03bb\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u039a\u03af\u03bd\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1) gets over 12% of votes in the 2023 Greek legislative election scheduled for June 25 after the results are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nUnrounded percent of the vote will be used for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Greek government and/or information published through the official website of the Hellenic Republic's Ministry of the Interior (https://ekloges.ypes.gr/en). However, a consensus of credible media reports will also suffice to resolve this market.\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-06", "date_close": "2023-06-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-13\", 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Declarations of war must be clear and explicit. The market will resolve to \"No\" if no such official declaration of war is made by the specified date. Note that Israel or Hamas declaring war is not considered for this market.", "date_begin": "2023-10-15", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.235], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.255], 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{"question": "Will Javier Milei win by more than 5% in the 2023 Argentina Presidential election?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-javier-milei-win-by-more-than-5-in-the-2023-argentina-presidential-election", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Javier Milei wins the second round of the 2023 Argentina Presidential election by a margin of more than 5%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by each candidate in the election. Valid votes are defined as votes cast for either Sergio Massa or Javier Milei, excluding votes that are blank, null, etc. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each candidate receives by the sum of all valid votes received by both candidates.\n\nFor example, if Milei receives 53% of the valid votes, and Massa receives 47% of the valid votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the Milei margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (Milei% - Massa% = Margin of Victory).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Argentine government (e.g. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/interior/dine).", "date_begin": "2023-11-15", "date_close": "2023-11-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-15\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.225], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.225], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.225], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.93], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9945], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9945], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.argentina.gob.ar/interior/dine).\"]"}, {"question": "Will Drake's album drop by 10/6?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-drakes-album-drop-by-106", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Drake's album \"For All the Dogs\" is released by October 6, 2023, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify or Apple Music, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-10-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-02\", 0.675], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.905], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.875], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.905], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.905], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.905], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.875], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.875], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.875], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.875], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.9725], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.975]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/ComplexMusic/status/1710088130265600113\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its September meeting?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-raise-interest-rates-by-0-bps-after-its-september-meeting", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if following the Federal Reserve's September 2023 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is exactly the same as the level it was prior to the meeting (namely it increased 0 bps). Otherwise, it will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC\u2019s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 19-20, 2023 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC\u2019s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by September 27, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.", "date_begin": "2023-07-19", "date_close": "2023-09-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation initiated by North Korea will result in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-07-27", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4995], [\"2023-07-28\", 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[\"2023-12-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Holly Mitchell replace Feinstein?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-holly-mitchell-replace-feinstein", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Holly Mitchell is appointed to replace Dianne Feinstein in the US Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of California and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-29", "date_close": "2024-11-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-29\", 0.46], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.19], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.215], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0105], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0105], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0105], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.175]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Draymond Green be suspended for 10+ games?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-draymond-green-be-suspended-for-10-games", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Draymond Green is suspended for more than 10 or more games. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will only consider the next suspension of Draymond Green issued by the NBA after November 14 and before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, and not any suspensions incurred additionally from separate incidents.\n\nIf the NBA issues no suspension of Draymond Green by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA.", "date_begin": "2023-11-15", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-15\", 0.38], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.405]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will $BTC reach $32,500 by July 14?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-btc-reach-32500-by-july-14", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will immediately resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if any Coinbase 1 minute candle for BTC-USD between 7 Jul '23 12:00 and 14 Jul '23 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final \u201cHigh\u201d price of 32,500.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the BTC-USD \"High\" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD with \u201c1m\u201d and \u201cCandles\u201d selected on the top bar.\n\nTo see the \"High\" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value \"H\" at the top of the chart.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase BTC-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.", "date_begin": "2023-07-07", "date_close": "2023-07-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-07\", 0.185], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.185], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.245], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.48], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.22], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.12], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.215], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.29], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.coinbase.com/,\", \"https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD\"]"}, {"question": "Will \"Biden\" be said by every candidate in the RNC primary debate on August 23?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-be-said-by-every-candidate-in-the-rnc-primary-debate-on-august-23", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \"Biden\" is said at least once by every participating candidate during the RNC primary debate scheduled for August 23, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-08-21", "date_close": "2023-08-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.74], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.265], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.43], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.505]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-putin-remain-president-of-russia-through-2023", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Vladimir Putin remains the President of Russia without interruption from June 12, 2023 through December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Russia, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-06-12", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.875], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.875], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.875], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.89], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.895], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.895], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.925], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.93], 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[\"2023-12-30\", 0.9935], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9935], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9935], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9935], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9935], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9935], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9995], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#government.\", \"https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/head-of-ukraine-s-intelligence-service-putin-might-be-dead/ar-AA1geHBl\", \"https://postimg.cc/G8LzZRN0\", \"https://tlgrm-ru.translate.goog/channels/@generalsvr/1841?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true\", \"https://tlgrm-ru.translate.goog/channels/@generalsvr/1842?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true\", \"https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-suffers-cardiac-arrest-in-presidential-bedroom-an-insider-group-reveals/news-story/c02c8dff64dd79a4c8e53bec6ae8f3d8?amp\", \"https://insightprediction.com/m/192967/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-through-the-end-of-2023\", \"https://imgprx.livejournal.net/3a859f39599ee669ced876029e584c9d005a1d4a/ISUmL1fEF_bXHtboV_AITvtGyCWQS0CO6v2nWyK0N2LZviWRmG3djn8vYMVsjyQ2hh6wLQyUORaBcBH4bE3_aQ\", \"https://apnews.com/article/putin-russia-misinformation-heart-attack-telegram-3c25f229f994aaa87d837285412cb1be\", \"https://www.rt.com/russia/586580-only-one-putin-kremlin/\", \"https://youtu.be/Wvhn3m1_Z_E?t=6\", \"https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1722356203961868311\", \"https://www.rt.com/russia/586580-only-one-putin-kremlin/\", \"https://youtu.be/Wvhn3m1_Z_E?t=6\", \"https://www.rt.com/russia/586580-only-one-putin-kremlin/\", \"https://www.rt.com/russia/586580-only-one-putin-kremlin/\", \"https://www.rt.com/russia/586580-only-one-putin-kremlin/\", \"https://www.rt.com/russia/586580-only-one-putin-kremlin/\"]"}, {"question": "Bill Clinton arrested by Jan 10?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bill-clinton-arrested-by-jan-10", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if former president Bill Clinton is arrested between Jan 3 and Jan 10, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2024-01-04", "date_close": "2024-01-10", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2024-01-04\", 0.0095], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0095], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0105], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0105], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0105], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0105], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0105], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0115], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0115], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.0115], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.012], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.012], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.012], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.015], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.02], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.02], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.009], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.0165], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.0165], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.0165], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.017], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.017], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.031], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.031], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.031], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.076], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.076], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.076], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.076], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0035], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0035], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0035], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0035], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0035], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0035], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0035], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0035], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0035], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.011], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.016], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0165], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0165], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0055], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.006], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0025], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0025], 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0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.0015], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.001], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.001]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "BTC above $26,000 at end of August?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/btc-above-26000-at-end-of-august", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Coinbase 1 minute candle for BTC-USD 31 Aug '23 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \u201cClose\u201d price of 26000.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the BTC-USD \"Close\" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD with \u201c1m\u201d and \u201cCandles\u201d selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase BTC-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.", "date_begin": "2023-08-21", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.38], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.38], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/drakes-for-all-the-dogs-over-400k-sales-week-1", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "Drake's new album 'For All the Dogs' is scheduled to be released on August 25, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'For All the Dogs' has over 400,000 sales including streaming equivalents in its first week. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the album is not released by September 30, 2023 PT, the market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the \"HITS TOP 50\" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming. This market will resolve according to the figure in the column titled \"TOTAL\" once the list is finalized.\n\nIf the chart specified herein is rendered permanently unavailable or does not list 'For All the Dogs', another credible resolution source may be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-24\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.405], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.405], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\nNote: If the person(s) arrested in connection with the cocaine are later found innocent it will have no bearing on the resolution of this market - this market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if an arrest is made.", "date_begin": "2023-07-06", "date_close": "2023-07-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.06], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Israel announce 24h+ humanitarian pause by Nov 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-announce-24h-humanitarian-pause-by-nov-30", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel announces a humanitarian pause of at least 24 consecutive hours between November 12 and 30, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a humanitarian pause is defined as \"A temporary pause in the fighting for a short period for humanitarian purposes, one that may be designed to allow people to leave a conflict area, repairs to be made, or bring in humanitarian relief or other supplies, etc.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is only necessary Israel announces a 24h+ humanitarian pause will take place, regardless of whether it actually occurs.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-13", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-13\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.375], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.385], [\"2023-11-13\", 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0.78], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.685], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.785], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.845], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.855], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.89], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.925], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.93], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.9785], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.9785], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.98], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.98], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.98], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.98], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.98], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.982], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.9825], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.985], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.985], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.986], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.7945], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9755], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9755], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.978], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9785], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9785], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9785], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9785], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9785], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9825], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.985], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.985], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.985], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.985], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.965], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.9725], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.9935], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.9945], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.9985], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.9985]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://i.imgur.com/Scs3d4h.png\", \"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-30\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'Gran Turismo' gross over $22m opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-gran-turismo-gross-over-22m-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Gran Turismo' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt4495098/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 25 - August 27) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Gran Turismo' (2023) grosses more than $22,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by September 4, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-08-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-25\", 0.026], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.026], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.026], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.026], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.03], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.051], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.051], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.051], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0805], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0085], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0085], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0085], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.011], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.033], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.033], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0405], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0405], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0405], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0405], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0405], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0405], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0605], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0605], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0605], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0605], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0605], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.0605], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0315], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0315], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0315], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0315], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0315], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0315], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0315], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0315], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.032], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.2455], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.4495], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt4495098/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Jesus Christ return by August 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-by-august-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.", "date_begin": "2023-08-22", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Other", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-22\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.001]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Barbie' gross over $16m this weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-barbie-gross-over-16m-this-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically this upcoming weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 25 - August 27) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Barbie' (2023) grosses more than $16,000,000 on its August 25 - 27 weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by September 4, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-08-24", "date_close": "2023-08-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-25\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.275], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.22], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.265], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.29], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.345], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.13], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.215], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.215], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.9], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.9], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.905], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.925], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.053], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0535], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0535], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0955], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.3005], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.4815], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.515], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.78], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.7895], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.915], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.925], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.9295], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.9565], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.9675], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.97], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.97], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.97], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.97], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0105], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0125]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/\"]"}, {"question": "Will CZ remain CEO of Binance through 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-cz-remain-ceo-of-binance-through-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Changpeng Zhao (CZ) remains CEO of Binance from the date of this market's inception, November 21, through December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement that CZ will no longer be CEO on or before December 31 will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Only confirmation that CZ is no longer CEO of Binance within the market timeframe will result in this market resolving to \"No\".\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from Binance and/or CZ, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-21", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-21\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.0185], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1727063503125766367\"]"}, {"question": "Will Mbapp\u00e9 sign for Real Madrid?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-mbapp\u00e9-sign-for-real-madrid", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on whether Kylian Mbapp\u00e9 will sign for Real Madrid in the Summer transfer window, which closes on September 1, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if it is announced that Mbapp\u00e9 has signed for Real Madrid during the transfer window. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will also resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it is announced that Mbapp\u00e9 has signed a contract extension with PSG, or signs for a club other than Real Madrid during the described transfer window.\n\nIf a club announces that Mbapp\u00e9 has signed with them but later retracts that announcement, this market will resolve according to the initial announcement.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be official, credible announcements from either PSG or the signing club.\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-25", "date_close": "2023-09-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.575], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.575], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.575], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.575], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.645], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.56], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.56], 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"multiple_choice", "background": "Memorialization: At 12:00 PM ET, the Openpen Edition floor price was .6167 ETH.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if on July 28, 2023, 12:00 PM ET the Openpen Edition floor price is greater than 0.6900 ETH. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe floor price on July 28 will be found using\u00a0https://pro.opensea.io/, or if it ceases to exist,\u00a0https://blur.io. At 12:00 PM ET, all listings that have existed for at least 30 minutes will be considered, and the lowest price of them will be used as the floor price for Openpen Edition. Only listings that don't have a \"suspicious activity\" marker on\u00a0https://pro.opensea.io\u00a0will be considered. Listings across the marketplaces Blur, OpenSea, and LooksRare will count, in addition to other marketplaces that\u00a0https://pro.opensea.io\u00a0lists.\n\nThe floor price at 12:00 PM ET will be memorialized on the Polymarket market description after the resolution time passes.", "date_begin": "2023-07-20", "date_close": "2023-07-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.245], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.245], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.245], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.26], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.29], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.31], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.34], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.34], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.36], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.37], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.38], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-marvels-gross-more-than-55-million-domestically-on-its-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'The Marvels' (2023) grosses more than $55,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-10-30", "date_close": "2023-11-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.55], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.595], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.605], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.61], 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[\"2023-11-13\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGizdwpn92s\"]"}, {"question": "Will Nuggets v. Heat Finals Series be 6 games long?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-nuggets-v-heat-finals-series-be-6-games-long", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the 2023 NBA Finals Series between the Nuggets and the Heat lasts exactly 6 games. Otherwise the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThis market may immediately resolve to \"No\" if based on the rules of the NBA it becomes impossible for there to be exactly 6 games.\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-05", "date_close": "2023-06-09", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.36], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.27], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.37], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.615], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.615], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.615], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.615], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.615], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.15], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.49], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.495], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Hamas release more hostages by November 17?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamas-release-more-hostages-by-november-17", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas releases any hostages between October 31 and November 17, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a negotiated release of hostages will trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to whom any potential released hostages belong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-01", "date_close": "2023-11-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.69], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.69], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.69], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-02\", 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[\"2023-11-17\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.251], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2635], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2635], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.242]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/11/11/world/politics/israel-hamas-hostage-release-talks/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Lil Uzi Vert's new album have over 175k sales in its first week?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-lil-uzi-verts-new-album-have-over-175k-sales-in-its-first-week", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": " This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Lil Uzi Vert's new album 'The Pink Tape' has over 175,000 in sales for the week ending July 6, 2023, according to the finalized version of hitsdailydouble.com's \"HITS TOP 50\" list. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the figure in the column titled \"ALBUMS\" once the named list is finalized.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the \"HITS TOP 50\" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming.\n\nIf the chart specified herein is rendered permanently unavailable or does not list 'Business is Business', another credible resolution source may be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-07-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-30\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.53], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.53], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.53], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.57], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.57], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.57], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.57], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.68], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.72], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.72], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.72], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.72], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.72], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.855], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.855], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.86], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.86], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.88], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.895], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.345], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.945], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.04], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.22], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.35], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.22], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.22], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.22], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.22], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.2]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming.\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $35m on its 4-day opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-gross-over-35m-on-its-4-day-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt9663764/credits/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (December 22 - December 25) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' (2023) grosses more than $35,000,000 on its 4-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 4-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-11-27", "date_close": "2023-12-25", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.785], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.795], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.815], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.815], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.65], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/will-prigozhin-make-an-appearance-by-friday", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yevgeny Prigozhin makes a public or digital appearance between August 23 1:00 PM ET, and August 25, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis digital appearance must be verified as new, authentic footage (not AI-generated).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-08-23", "date_close": "2023-08-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-23\", 0.0155], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0175], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0275], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0345], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.009], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0105], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0135], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0135], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0135], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.019], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.019], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.021], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.022], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0225], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.023], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0235], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0015], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0065], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0085], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0085], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0105], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Cruise relaunch driverless taxis in SF by EoY?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-cruise-relaunch-driverless-taxis-in-sf-by-eoy", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "On Oct 24, 2023 the California DMV announced they had suspended Cruise\u2019s driverless taxis in SF, citing safety concerns (see https://x.com/Cruise/status/1716877217995894934?s=20). \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cruise relaunches its driverless taxi operations in San Francisco by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nA \u201crelaunch\u201d requires Cruise to resume driverless operations in San Francisco, and does not include mere tests and demonstrations. \n\nThe resolution source will be information from Cruise, in addition to credible media reporting. \n", "date_begin": "2023-10-24", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-24\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.115], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.125], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-25\", 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[\"2023-12-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://x.com/Cruise/status/1716877217995894934?s=20).\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'Saw X' gross over $21m opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-saw-x-gross-over-21m-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Saw X' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21807222/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 29 - October 1) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Saw X' (2023) grosses more than $21,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by October 9, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-09-27", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-27\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.19], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.255], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.265], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.265], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.265], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.265], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.265], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.265], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.265], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.325], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.375], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.475], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.51], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.51], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.065], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.07], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.225], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.005], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0495], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0495], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0495], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0495], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0495], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0045], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0045], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0045], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.0045], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0025], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0025], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0045]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21807222/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin in 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-lex-fridman-interview-vladimir-putin-in-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Lex Fridman, host of the Lex Fridman Podcast, conducts an interview with Vladimir Putin, current President of Russia, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2023, and the interview is made publicly available by the same deadline. The interview must be broadcasted or published on any of the platforms where Lex Fridman regularly releases his podcast episodes (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Youtube, etc.) or his verified social media accounts.\n\nIf no such interview takes place, is not verifiable or is not made publicly available by the expiry date, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-19", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.155], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.0275], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.03], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.032], 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means $27.35 million or more, or if other cryptocurrencies/currencies are sent instead, then at the time they were sent if their conversion into USD was $27.35 million or more, it will suffice to resolve this market to \u201cYes.\u201d\n\nNote that if funds are returned to KyberSwap in another way, and they confirm, it will count for this market.", "date_begin": "2023-11-29", "date_close": "2023-12-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-29\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.085], 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[\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.835], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.855], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.855], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.855], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.855], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.88], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.88], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.88], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.88], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.84], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.855], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.855], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.855]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Five Nights at Freddy's' gross over $80m opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-five-nights-at-freddys-gross-over-80m-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl764248833/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 27 - October 29) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) grosses more than $80,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. \n\nIf there is no final data available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.425], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-17\", 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"extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl764248833/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Biden mention aliens by August 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-mention-aliens-by-august-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if US President Joe Biden uses the word \"alien\" or \"aliens\" in any public, recorded way between July 27 and August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", Biden MUST say \"alien\" or \"aliens\" in a video or audio statement. Any context in which \"alien\" or \"aliens\" is said will count - e.g. if Biden said \"illegal aliens\" this market would resolve to \"Yes.\" References to aliens that do not include the word \"alien\" or \"aliens\" will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Written statements will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be any publicly available recorded or videoed statements by Biden (e.g. video of press conferences, candid videos, etc), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-27", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-27\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-28\", 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[\"2023-08-28\", 0.013], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.014], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0045], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0045], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.0035], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0095], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0095], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.0095]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'The Equalizer 3' gross over $35m Labor Day weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-equalizer-3-gross-over-35m-labor-day-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'The Equalizer 3' (2023) will gross domestically on its 4-day opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1430029057/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day long opening weekend (September 1 - September 4) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). If \"Domestic Weekend\" tab does not include the 4-day number, then the \"Domestic Daily\" will be used for the 4 days.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018The Equalizer 3' (2023) grosses more than $35,000,000 on its 4-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe long opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday of this film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 4-day weekend or by adding up the 4 days under Domestic Daily, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by September 10th, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-08-30", "date_close": "2023-09-05", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.55], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.705], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.825], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.87], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.87], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.885], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.905], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.915], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.925], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.925], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.93], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.94], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.945], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.945], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.945], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.95], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.955], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.96], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.96], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9655], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9745], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.981], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.984], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.984], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.984], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.984], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.984], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.984], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.988], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.988], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.988], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.988], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.9885], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.993], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.993], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.993], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.9935], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.9935], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.9945], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.996], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.996], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.996], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.996], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.996], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.996], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.996], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.996], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.9965], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.9965], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.9965], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.997], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9975], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.998], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.998], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.998], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.998], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.998], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.998], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.998]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1430029057/\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' gross over $40m opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-hunger-games-the-ballad-of-songbirds--snakes-gross-over-40m-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10545296/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 17 - November 19) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' (2023) grosses more than $40,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by November 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-11-13", "date_close": "2023-11-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-14\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.89], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.89], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.89], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.89], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.94], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.945], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.945], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.945], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.945], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.945], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.945], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.945], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.955], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.745], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.89], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.893], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.893], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.92], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.925], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.925], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.925], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.9275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.991], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.9915], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.9915], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.9915], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.973], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.974], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.975], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.981], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.981], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.991], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9945], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9955], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.996], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9965], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9965], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9965], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9965], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9965], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9975], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9975], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.998], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.998], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10545296/\", \"https://imgur.com/xHP4mzO\"]"}, {"question": "WorldCoin Market cap (FDV) over $10b one week after launch?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/worldcoin-market-cap-fdv-over-10b-one-week-after-launch", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "Memorialization: The FDV at 5:00 AM ET was $22,780,000,000.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if $WLD has a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) greater than $10,000,000,000 on July 31, 2023, 5 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, FDV will be found by multiplying the Binance close price of the 1m WLD candle titled \"07/31/2023 05:00\" in the ET timezone by the supply (FDV = Current Price x Max Supply [or total supply if max supply is invalid]).\n\nThe FDV at 05:00 AM ET will be memorialized on this market's Polymarket market description after the resolution time passes.", "date_begin": "2023-07-24", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.565], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.615], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.84], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.82], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.895], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.935], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.95], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.955], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.97], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.97], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.97], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.97], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.975], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.98], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.98], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.985], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9955], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9925], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9925], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9905], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9905], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9905], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.991], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9925], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.993], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.993], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.993], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.993], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.993], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Sam Altman criminal charges by Nov 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/sam-altman-criminal-charges-by-nov-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sam Altman is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity within the United States by Nov 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognized legal authority such as a court of law, prosecutor's office, or police department. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if no such charges are placed by the resolution date.", "date_begin": "2023-11-17", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-17\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.011], 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[\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.004], 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[\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.003], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.003], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.003]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1727096607752282485\"]"}, {"question": "Fuel shipments to Gaza by Nov 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fuel-shipments-to-gaza-by-nov-30", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if authorized fuel (oil or gas) shipments enter Gaza by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market only concerns fuel shipments to Gaza authorized by the state of Israel, Egypt, or the United Nations - if for example Hamas smuggles in fuel, it will not suffice to resolve the market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel, Egypt, the UN, and/or Hamas, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-03", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-03\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.745], 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0.715], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.62], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.62], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.63], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.63], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.62], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.63], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.885], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.925], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.925], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.945], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.985]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2018/08/gas-egypt-export-gaza-kerem-shalom-crossing-israel-supplies.html\", \"https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2023/11/09/negotiations-under-way-for-a-three-day-gaza-truce-in-exchange-for-hostages/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-hamas-refused-israeli-fuel-offer-gazas-shifa-hospital-2023-11-12/\", \"https://t.me/idfofficial/5156\", \"https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1170038956843352085\", \"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-772918\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/11/04/israel-hamas-war-gaza-fuel-hospital\", \"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-772918\"]"}, {"question": "Will OpenSea announce a token by September 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-opensea-announce-a-token-by-september-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenSea announces a token by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n\"Announces a token by September 30\" means they confirm by September 30 that they will have a token, regardless of when the token actually launches.\n\nThe resolution source is OpenSea (https://opensea.io/blog/, https://twitter.com/opensea, https://pro.opensea.io/, etc.). OpenSea Pro announcing a token also counts for this market. OpenSea announcing NFTs wont count as announcing a token.", "date_begin": "2023-07-14", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-17\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.365], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.175], 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2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-team-win-lol-worlds-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an esports team from the China region wins 1st place in the League of Legends 2023 Season World Championship (Worlds 2023). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nChinese teams are as follows: JDG, BLG, LNG, WBG\n\nIf the winner of the Worlds 2023 is not determined by December 31, 2023 ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information provided directly from Riot Games (e.g. lolesports.com) and official footage of the tournament, however other credible reporting may be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-18", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.615], [\"2023-10-19\", 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of media reporting as to whether an eruption occurred. \n\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-13", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-13\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.425], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.43], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.52], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.58], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.18], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.225], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.0345], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0035]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/17ujqiw/huge_crack_appears_in_the_earth_in_grindav%C3%ADk/\", \"https://twitter.com/liv59224/status/1724748056262815856?s=19\", \"https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1724260435728245076\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl LVIII?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-atlanta-falcons-win-super-bowl-lviii", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl LVIII. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2024-01-06", "date_close": "2024-02-10", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2024-01-06\", 0.0045], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0045], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0045], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0055], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0045], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0045], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0045], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0045], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0055], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0055], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0065], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Logan Paul refund CryptoZoo investors by October 14?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-logan-paul-refund-cryptozoo-investors-by-october-14", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if CryptoZoo refunds at least $1,000,000 of investors' money by October 14, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-08-22", "date_close": "2023-10-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.065], 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behind the Gaza hospital blast?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-new-york-times-definitively-state-israel-was-not-behind-the-gaza-hospital-blast", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if The New York Times, on any of its official platforms, definitively states that Israel was not responsible for the hospital blast in Gaza. This could be in the form of a corrected article, a retraction, an updated headline, or a public statement explicitly attributing the blast to a different party (Hamas, PIJ, etc.). If The New York Times does not make such a definitive statement by November 1, 2023, the market will resolve to \"No\". Official New York Times publications and statements will be used to determine the resolution.", "date_begin": "2023-10-18", "date_close": "2023-11-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-18\", 0.39], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.675], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.675], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.675], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.675], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.255], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-19\", 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"extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will CZ be arrested by June 30?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-cz-be-arrested-by-june-30", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if co-founder of Binance Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is arrested by June 30, 2023 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, however official information from the governments involved in any action against CZ and information from CZ's and Binance's legal representatives will also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-05", "date_close": "2023-06-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.03], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.03], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.06], 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11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNeither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to \u201cYes\u201c.\n\nIf President Joseph Biden for any reason ceases to be POTUS before being impeached by December 31, 2023 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-25", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-26\", 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"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-epstein-documents-name-prince-andrew", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "On Dec 19, Federal Judge Loretta Preska ordered documents containing names of Jeffrey Epstein's associates to be unsealed.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the mentioned documents contain any mention of Prince Andrew. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the mentioned documents are not unsealed by February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-12-20", "date_close": "2024-02-29", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-20\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.75], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-publicly-state-that-iran-was-directly-involved-with-the-recent-attack-on-israel-in-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. officially states that Iran was directly involved, beyond just funding organizations and proxies, in the recent attack on Israel on or before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. The statement must be made by a U.S. government official and should be verifiable through reliable sources, such as verified news outlets or official U.S. government statements. If no such statement is made by the stated date, the market will resolve to \"No\". If a statement is made before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-10-09", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.335], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.375], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.385], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.675], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-11\", 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"[\"https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-fighters-trained-in-iran-before-oct-7-attacks-e2a8dbb9\", \"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1716198693290844504\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWnBPoZVdg8&t=17s\"]"}, {"question": "American aid to Israel by Dec 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/american-aid-to-israel-by-dec-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a bill granting a new aid package to Israel is signed into law in the United States by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 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"[\"https://www.aipac.org/resources/senate-adopts-defense-bill-with-major-pro-israel-provisions\"]"}, {"question": "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-august", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between August 1 and August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as listed on the National Hurricane Center website (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If no tropical systems with hurricane status make landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market may only resolve to \"No\" after August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a \"Yes\" resolution have not been met.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL\n\nThis market will resolve based on an initial announcement released by NOAA that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.", "date_begin": "2023-07-31", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nA rescue is defined as a successful operation or negotiation that results in the release and safe return of an American hostage. The rescue operation or negotiation must be attributed to the U.S. and be verifiable through reliable sources, such as verified news outlets or official U.S. government statements. \n\nIf a rescue operation results in the return of at least one American hostage before the expiry date, the market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\".\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-11", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-12\", 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\"https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1715517866764583200?t=Chp-rvy1zyiRVbTBB5grnQ&s=19\", \"https://twitter.com/MayadeenEnglish/status/1715410611591360796\", \"https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/20/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-securing-the-release-of-two-americans-taken-hostage/\", \"https://pastebin.com/Y19WpLmv\", \"https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/20/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-securing-the-release-of-two-americans-taken-hostage/\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-releases-two-us-hostages-for-humanitarian-reasons-response-qatari-efforts-2023-10-20/\", \"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip-conflict/card/biden-thanks-qatar-israel-for-help-in-freeing-two-american-hostages-rHR48eqb8RvZvEkiIvmL\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-17/to-return-the-israeli-hostages-taken-by-hamas-the-us-calls-its-friend-qatar\", \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-17/to-return-the-israeli-hostages-taken-by-hamas-the-us-calls-its-friend-qatar\", \"https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesnownews.com/world/rafah-border-crossing-to-open-today-in-gaza-us-embassy-in-jerusalem-article-104601143/amp\", \"https://discord.gg/fyh5neESMW\"]"}, {"question": "Will N.D. win over 42% of votes?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-nd-win-over-42-of-votes", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if New Democracy (\u039d\u03ad\u03b1 \u0394\u03b7\u03bc\u03bf\u03ba\u03c1\u03b1\u03c4\u03af\u03b1, N.D.) gets over 42% of votes in the 2023 Greek legislative election scheduled for June 25 after the results are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nUnrounded percent of the vote will be used for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Greek government and/or information published through the official website of the Hellenic Republic's Ministry of the Interior (https://ekloges.ypes.gr/en). However, a consensus of credible media reports will also suffice to resolve this market.\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-06", "date_close": "2023-06-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.505], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.555], 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Termination must be due to any reason and must be officially confirmed by the Oklahoma City Thunder or the NBA. A contract termination will include any scenario where Giddey is released from his contract by the Thunder, even if he is subsequently signed by another team. If Giddey's contract is not terminated before the aforementioned date, the market will resolve to \"No\". The market will resolve immediately if the contract termination is confirmed before the resolution date.", "date_begin": "2023-11-24", "date_close": "2023-12-07", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-25\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.125], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.335], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.395], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-26\", 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThe resolution source will be the friend.tech app. A consensus of credible sources will also suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-08-21", "date_close": "2023-08-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-21\", 0.495], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.55], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.295], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.515], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.085], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.095], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.115], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.006], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0075], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0175], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0175], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0175], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.03], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.045], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.003], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0055], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by July 15?  ", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-by-july-15", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once after June 26, 2023, and by July 15, 2023, (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, all quote and reply tweets count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, retweets do not count as a tweet.   \n\nPlease note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.", "date_begin": "2023-06-26", "date_close": "2023-07-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-28\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.285], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.09], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.105], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-06-29\", 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\u201cYes\u201d if Pope Francis (born Jorge Mario Bergoglio) remains the Pope without interruption from June 29, 2023 through December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the Vatican (ex: https://www.vatican.va/content/vatican/en.html, https://twitter.com/Pontifex, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-06-29", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-29\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.745], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.745], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.745], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.75], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.745], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.745], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.745], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.745], [\"2023-06-30\", 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at Freddy's' gross over $60m opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-five-nights-at-freddys-gross-over-60m-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl764248833/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 27 - October 29) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) grosses more than $60,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. \n\nIf there is no final data available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.575], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.655], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.655], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.735], 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[\"2023-10-30\", 0.999], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9995], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl764248833/\", \"https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/\"]"}, {"question": "Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/another-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-in-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between December 1, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nAn official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 48 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on December 30, this market would resolve to \"Yes\" if the ceasefire continues for 48 hours.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, all quote and reply tweets count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, but retweets will not count.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.\n\nPlease note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.", "date_begin": "2023-07-18", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-19\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-20\", 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sign with Blue Jays?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-shohei-ohtani-sign-with-blue-jays", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Shohei Ohtani signs for the Toronto Blue Jays for 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will also resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it is announced that Ohtani has signed for any team other than the Toronto Blue Jays for 2024.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be official, credible announcements from either the Toronto Blue Jays or the signing team.\n\nThis market will stay open until it is definitively determined whether Shohei Ohtani will sign for the Blue Jays for 2024.", "date_begin": "2023-12-08", "date_close": "2024-01-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-08\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.525], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3105], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.4255], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.47], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.48], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.595], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.605], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.67], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.003], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0045], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.0045]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Kevin McCarthy resign from the House in 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-kevin-mccarthy-resign-from-the-house-in-2023", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kevin McCarthy announces his resignation from his position as a member of the US House of Representatives by 11:59 PM ET, December 31, 2023. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a resignation is defined as Kevin McCarthy formally announcing his intention to step down, or his resignation being reported by a reputable source, such as a government website or major news outlet.\n\n\nNote that if he announces he will resign from the House by the resolution date it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of when or if the resignation actually occurs.", "date_begin": "2023-11-30", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-01\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.435], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.465], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.48], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.485], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.435], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.47], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.545], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.795], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.9745]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Community notes on Biden Xeet by December 11?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/community-notes-on-biden-xeet-by-december-11", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if community notes are attached to any @JoeBiden (https://twitter.com/JoeBiden) Tweet or post on x.com made between December 4, 12:00 AM ET and December 11, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be Biden's official X account, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-12-04", "date_close": "2023-12-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-09", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-04\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.6295], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.6295], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.662], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6625], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.8825], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.8825], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9695], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.547], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.663], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7505], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7505], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7505], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7505], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7505], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.751], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.751], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.762], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7625], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7625], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7625], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7625], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.7625], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.7625], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.7625], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9745], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.997], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.9975], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.998]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/JoeBiden)\"]"}, {"question": "Will Remilia's stolen funds be returned this month?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-remilias-stolen-funds-be-returned-this-month", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least 90% of the money diverted from Remilia by the developer cited here (https://twitter.com/charlottefang77/status/1701245168039452947) is returned by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Remilia or Charlotte Fang (https://twitter.com/CharlotteFang77), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.125], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.085], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.1], 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\"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, that this market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sam Altman is named TIME's Person of the Year either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, so long as Sam Altman is directly referenced. If, for example, the Person of the Year is \"AI and Sam Altman\", this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If, however, the Person of the Year is the \"OpenAI Team\", this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Time's cover and other Time webpages have different winners for the Person of the Year, only one of them has to mention Sam Altman as the winner for this market to resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThis market can resolve after the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 15, 2024 (11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve to \"No\".\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-18", "date_close": "2024-01-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.535], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.535], 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Songbirds & Snakes' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10545296/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 17 - November 19) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' (2023) grosses more than $50,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by November 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-11-13", "date_close": "2023-11-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-14\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.27], 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0.215], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.325], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0225], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0225], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0225], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.023], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.028], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.1175], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.011], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0255], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0255], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.026], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0045], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.002]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10545296/\"]"}, {"question": "Saudi Arabia non-oil GDP % up in Q3?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-non-oil-gdp--up-in-q3", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas accounts for less than 25.0% of Saudi Arabia's GDP in Q3 of 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the General Authority for Statistics (https://www.stats.gov.sa/en/823), specifically the percentage in the pie chart in their Q3 report. \n\nIf no information is released by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.", "date_begin": "2023-10-20", "date_close": "2023-10-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.595], 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scheduled to be released on August 25, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'For All the Dogs' has over 300,000 sales including streaming equivalents in its first week (ending August 31, 2023). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the \"HITS TOP 50\" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming. This market will resolve according to the figure in the column titled \"TOTAL\" once the list is finalized. \n\nIf the chart specified herein is rendered permanently unavailable or does not list 'For All the Dogs', another credible resolution source may be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-08-22", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-22\", 0.56], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.635], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.685], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.775], 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[\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.535], 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[\"2023-09-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.535]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming.\"]"}, {"question": "Will Messi score in his next game?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-messi-score-in-his-next-game", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Lionel Messi scores in his next official game for Inter Miami CF (after this market was released, August 29, 2023, 12:00 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, goals and penalties scored during regular time and extra time will count, however goals scored during a penalty shootout will not.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official footage of the game, however a consensus of credible reporting (e.g. https://www.espn.com/soccer/player/_/id/45843/lionel-messi) will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-08-29", "date_close": "2023-08-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.655], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.655]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.espn.com/soccer/player/_/id/45843/lionel-messi)\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'Elemental' gross over $37.5m on opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-elemental-gross-over-375m-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Elemental' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1811383041/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 16 - 18) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Elemental' (2023) grosses more than $37,500,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by June 26, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-06-13", "date_close": "2023-06-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-14\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.185], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.185], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.115], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.515], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.085], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.085], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.085], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.085], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.085], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.085], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.085], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.155], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.165], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.07]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1811383041/\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'The Last Voyage of the Demeter' gross over $8m on opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-last-voyage-of-the-demeter-gross-over-8m-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'The Last Voyage of the Demeter' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1001520/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 11 - August 13) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018The Last Voyage of the Demeter' (2023) grosses more than $8,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by August 21, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-08-09", "date_close": "2023-08-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-09\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.75], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.75], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.215], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.385], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.445], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.445], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.465], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.47], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.485], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.515], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.515], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.635], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.635], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.635], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.635], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.635], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.775], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.14], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.025], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.03], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0375], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.0375], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0005], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.001], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0205], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0205], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0205], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0205], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0205], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.0205], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1001520/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-twitter-sue-meta-by-july-15", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Twitter/X Corp. sues Meta by July 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market X Corp and Meta include any of the subsidiaries of each company.\n\nThis market will resolve according to official information from Twitter and Meta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-06", "date_close": "2023-07-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.155], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.01]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Aaron Rodgers play again by December 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-aaron-rodgers-play-again-by-december-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Aaron Rodgers plays an NFL game between September 12, 2023 PM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"playing another NFL game\" means Aaron Rodgers is on the field through the completion of at least one down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL, including game footage, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-12", "date_close": "2023-12-30", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0355], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0355], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.0255], 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"[\"https://www.africaintelligence.com/southern-africa-and-islands/2023/11/21/ramaphosa-skipped-saudi-africa-summit-over-riyadh-s-brics-prevarication,110099828-eve\"]"}, {"question": "Will the missing F-35 be found by September 20?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-missing-f-35-be-found-by-september-20", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "On Sunday, September 17, 2023, a pilot ejected from an F-35 which subsequently went missing: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/f-35-fighter-jet-missing-pilot-ejects-mishap-rcna105534\n\nIf this F-35 is located by September 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is only necessary that any individual piece of the missing F-35 be located.\n\nIf there is any ambiguity as to whether a part or the whole of the F-35 has been found within the market timeframe, this market may remain open until a definitive determination has been made.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by the US Government or the United States Armed Forces, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-18", "date_close": "2023-09-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.57], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.735], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.735], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.74], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.91], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.97], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.98], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.984], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.984], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.9845], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.9995], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/f-35-fighter-jet-missing-pilot-ejects-mishap-rcna105534\"]"}, {"question": "Will Kane sign for Bayern Munich?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-kane-sign-for-bayern-munich", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on whether Harry Kane will sign for Bayern Munich in the Summer transfer window, which closes on September 1, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if it is announced that Kane has signed for Bayern Munich during the transfer window. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will also resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it is announced that Kane has signed a contract extension with Tottenham Hotspur, or signs for a club other than Bayern Munich during the described transfer window.\n\nIf a club announces that Kane has signed with them but later retracts that announcement, this market will resolve according to the initial announcement.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be official, credible announcements from either Tottenham Hotspur or the signing club.", "date_begin": "2023-07-07", "date_close": "2023-09-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-07\", 0.355], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.335], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.335], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.335], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.335], 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0.53], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.43], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.455], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.55], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.52], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.725], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.74], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.74], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.75], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.76], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.76], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.525], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.695], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.715], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.785], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.84], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.96], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.964], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.966], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.966], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.9675], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.969], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.9695], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.9725], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.9745], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.9835], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.9835], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.9835], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.9835], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.9835], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.9835], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.9835], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.984], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.985], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.9895], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.9895], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.9895]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will \"terrorist\" be said 10 or more times in the 4th RNC primary debate?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-terrorist-be-said-10-or-more-times-in-the-4th-rnc-primary-debate", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \"terrorist\" is said 10 or more times by the invited candidates (in total) during the RNC primary debate scheduled for December 6, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond December 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-12-05", "date_close": "2023-12-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.375], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.505], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.565], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9145], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.915], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9255], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9845]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Biden additional aid to Ukraine by July 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/biden-additional-aid-to-ukraine-by-july-31", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "If the US Department of Defense (DoD) announces the Biden Administration's forty-third drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021 by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThis market's resolution only concerns the forty-third drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021, and not other aid packages.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the DoD (e.g. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-18", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.48], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.48], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.65], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.865], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.87], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.595], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.75], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.755], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.755], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.755], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.795], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.815], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.825], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.83], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.855], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.925], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.93], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.99]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/),\"]"}, {"question": "Will Trump receive a gag order by October 15?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-receive-a-gag-order-by-october-15", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if ex-president of the United States Donald J. Trump becomes the subject of a gag order by any Federal or State court in the US between September 18 and October 15, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a \"gag order\" is broadly defined as a legally binding court order prohibiting Trump from discussing, commenting on, or disseminating information related to a specific legal case or investigation. The gag order must be issued by a federal or state court within the United States.\n\nFor the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US courts/government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-18", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-18\", 0.4], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.555], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.555], 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[\"2023-09-22\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.355], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.355], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.665], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.505], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.225], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.09], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0995], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.925], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.926], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.943], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.9025], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.9255]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Iceland volcanic eruption by Nov 17?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iceland-volcanic-eruption-by-nov-17", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "On Nov 11, 2023 Iceland declared a state of emergency after an intense string of earthquakes linked to a possible future volcanic eruption.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iceland has a volcanic eruption by Nov 17, 11:59 PM Iceland Time (UTC + 0). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of media reporting as to whether an eruption occurred. \n\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-14", "date_close": "2023-11-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-14\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.305], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0205], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0205], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.025]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will anyone say \"AI\" or \"Artificial Intelligence\" in the RNC primary debate on August 23?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-anyone-say-ai-or-artificial-intelligence-in-the-rnc-primary-debate-on-august-23", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any candidate says \"AI\" or \"artificial intelligence\" during the RNC primary debate scheduled for August 23, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-08-17", "date_close": "2023-08-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.44], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.575], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.675], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.49], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.49], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.55], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.635], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.695]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'The Nun II' gross over $40m opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-nun-ii-gross-over-40m-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'The Nun II' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10160976/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 8 - September 10) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018The Nun II' (2023) grosses more than $40,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by September 17, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-05", "date_close": "2023-09-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-05\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.145], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.145], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.15], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.195], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.2], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.23], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.23], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.28], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.295], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.305], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.75], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.8], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.12], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.14], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.14], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0285], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0285], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0285], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0285], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0295], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.0295], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.03], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.035], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.045], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.075], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.095], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.1], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.011], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.015], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.026], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.029], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0315], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0315], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0315], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.034], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0025], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0025], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.017], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.032], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.001], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0005], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10160976/\"]"}, {"question": "Will NSC win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-nsc-win-a-plurality-in-the-2023-dutch-general-election", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if NSC (New Social Contract) controls a greater number of seats in the House of Representatives than any other party after the results of the 2023 Dutch general election are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the results of this election aren't known by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity official information from the government of the Netherlands and/or information published through the official website of the Dutch electoral council (https://english.kiesraad.nl/) will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-16", "date_close": "2023-11-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-17\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.285], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.35], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.35], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.355], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.365], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.115], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.025]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://english.kiesraad.nl/)\"]"}, {"question": "Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by July 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-by-july-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if @realDonaldTrump tweets at least once between July 9 and July 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, all quote and reply tweets count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, but retweets will not count.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.\n\nPlease note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.", "date_begin": "2023-07-10", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-10\", 0.125], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.065], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.145], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.1], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, that this market will resolve to \"Yes\" if AI is named TIME's Person of the Year either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, so long as AI is directly referenced. If, for example, the Person of the Year is \"AI and Sam Altman\", this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If, however, the Person of the Year is the \"OpenAI Team\", this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Time's cover and other Time webpages have different winners for the Person of the Year, only one of them has to mention AI or AI models/interfaces as the winner for this market to resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThis market can resolve after the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 15, 2024 (11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve to \"No\".\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-18", "date_close": "2024-01-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.235], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.51], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.225], 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Turkey's (TCMB, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131) interest rates are defined in this market by the policy rate (one-week repo auction rate) released by the TCMB each month. Decisions on the one-week repo auction rate are made by the Monetary Policy Committee. As of the time of this market's inception, the rate is 8.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if following the Monetary Policy Committee's June 2023 meeting the policy rate is raised above the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the TCMB statement after its meeting scheduled for June 22, 2023 according to the official calendar:\u00a0https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Monetary+Policy+Committee/2023.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Monetary Policy Committee's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by July 6, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.", "date_begin": "2023-06-05", "date_close": "2023-06-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.6], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-07\", 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"extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Monetary+Policy+Committee/2023.\"]"}, {"question": "Will Hakeem Jeffries get the most votes in next vote for Speaker?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-hakeem-jeffries-get-the-most-votes-in-next-vote-for-speaker", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hakeem Jeffries receives the most votes in the first vote for a new Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy was ousted. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\nIf no vote for a new US Speaker of the House takes place by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.76], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.385], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.445], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.45], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.475], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.495], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.5], 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"question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moriah Mills publishes a sex tape that features Zion Williamson by July 1, 2023, 12:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be credible reporting about a video posted by Moriah Mills on any platform.\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-22", "date_close": "2023-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-22\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.095], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.055], 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[\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.01], 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The hostages may be from any country and the deal can be brokered by any entity. A \"successful deal\" is defined as an agreement that results in the release of one or more hostages currently held by Hamas. The deal must be verifiable through credible reporting or the respective governments of the hostages. If no such deal is brokered by the resolution date, the market will resolve to \"No\". If a deal is brokered before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-10-09", "date_close": "2023-11-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.34], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.34], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.34], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.34], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.355], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.355], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.345], [\"2023-10-11\", 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[\"2023-10-12\", 0.355], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.355], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.33], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.645], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.645], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.19], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.225], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.295], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.305], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.265], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.745], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.975], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9885], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Meg 2: The Trench' gross over $23.5m on opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-meg-2-the-trench-gross-over-235m-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Meg 2: The Trench' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3090514689/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 04 - August 06) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Meg 2: The Trench' (2023) grosses more than $23,500,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by August 14th, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-07-31", "date_close": "2023-08-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-01\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.325], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.43], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.745], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.745], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.745], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.605], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.615], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.705], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.745], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.745], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.745], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.745], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.765], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.62], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.77], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.77], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.795], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.82], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.84], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.855], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.875], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.805], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.81], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.82], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.82], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.825], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.845], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.89], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.915], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.915], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.915], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.935], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.935], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.935], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.935], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.935], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.935], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.935], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.935], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.945], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.945], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.945], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.945], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.945], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.945], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.965], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.97], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.975], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.985], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.99], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.995], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3090514689/\"]"}, {"question": "JN.1 most common COVID variant in US by Dec 23?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/jn1-most-common-covid-variant-in-us-by-dec-23", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the most COVID-19 cases by proportion in the United States according to CDC's Nowcast at the time of its next release (after 12/9/23). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the CDC Nowcast Estimates in the United States for 12/23/23 as soon as released (% Total column in graph here https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). This market will resolve based on the initial information release by the CDC regardless of later information updates. If the CDC stops reporting figures for COVID-19 or ceases to utilize the Nowcast before the end of this market, it will resolve 50-50.", "date_begin": "2023-12-19", "date_close": "2023-12-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Healthcare & Biology", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.525], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.715], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.715], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.725], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.735], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.685], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.685], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions).\"]"}, {"question": "Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift seen together again?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/travis-kelce-and-taylor-swift-seen-together-again", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a picture or video clearly showing Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift together in close physical proximity between September 25, 12:00 PM ET and October 31, 11:59 PM ET is made public. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe picture or video must be taken within this market's timeframe, original, and not manipulated or digitally altered to mislead the viewer. Previously taken images, photoshopped images/videos, deepfakes, or any form of manipulated media will not be considered valid for the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the image(s) and/or video(s) in question, verified by a consensus of credible reporting and/or Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift and their representatives.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-25", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-25\", 0.58], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.75], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.75], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.75], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.77], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.77], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.82], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.855], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.855], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.855], 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government implements a travel ban against China at any point between December 3 and Dec 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a \"travel ban\" refers to a formal prohibition, restriction, or suspension issued by the US government on travel to China for non-US citizens, non-permanent residents, or all people, regardless of citizenship.\n\nThe market will resolve early if an official travel ban against China has been announced and confirmed prior to the end of this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used\n\n.\n", "date_begin": "2023-12-04", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-04\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.0245], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.235], 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0.01], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.012], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will MEXC become insolvent by July 3?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-mexc-become-insolvent-by-july-3", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if official information released by MEXC (https://www.mexc.com/), official representatives of MEXC (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by July 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET that MEXC is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy.\n\nThis market will also resolve to \"Yes\" if MEXC withdrawals for BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 3 full days (72 hours) in a row by July 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this settlement criterion will be official information released by MEXC, official representatives of MEXC (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), and a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf neither of the above criteria are met, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMEXC withdrawals being suspended for a majority of users means that a majority of users are unable to withdraw their BTC and/or ETH from MEXC (E.g. If a majority of users are unable to withdraw their ETH from MEXC, it will satisfy the condition.)\n\nIf MEXC suspends withdrawals on a date which would cause the 3 day countdown to overlap with this market's expiration date (e.g. They halt token withdrawals on July 2, 2023, 4 PM ET), this market will not resolve until either: 1) withdrawals are reenabled before 3 full days (72 hours) pass, resulting in a \"No\" resolution; 2) 3 full days pass (July 2 - July\n 5, 2023, 4 PM ET) where withdrawals are suspended, resulting in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-26", "date_close": "2023-07-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.03], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.07], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0045], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0045], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0045], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0055], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.006], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.006], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.011], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.018], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.02], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.0065], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.006], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.008], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.008], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0105], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.038], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.0385], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.008], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.008], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.008], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.027], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.036], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0015], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0015], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0035], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0055], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0055], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0055], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.0055], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.007], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.003]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.mexc.com/),\"]"}, {"question": "Argentina Presidential Election: Will Patricia Bullrich win?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/argentina-presidential-election-will-patricia-bullrich-win", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "Patricia Bullrich is seeking election to the presidency in the 2023 Argentine general election, currently scheduled to take place on October 22, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Patricia Bullrich wins the 2023 Argentine presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Argentine government (e.g. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/interior/dine), however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-08-15", "date_close": "2023-10-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-15\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.555], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.565], 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"[\"https://www.argentina.gob.ar/interior/dine),\"]"}, {"question": "Will Kari Lake be the next Speaker?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-kari-lake-be-the-next-speaker", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kari Lake is elected to be the next US Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023. 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"polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Insidious: The Red Door' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1137607425/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 07 - July 09) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Insidious: The Red Door'' (2023) grosses more than $26,500,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by July 17, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-07-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-03\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.2], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.205], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.25], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.25], 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0.995], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1137607425/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be greater than 39.5% on January 7?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-joe-bidens-538-approval-rating-be-greater-than-395-on-january-7", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than 39.5% for the day of January 7, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the datapoint for January 7 as soon as a datapoint for January 8 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the January 8 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for January 7 is available by January 10, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous approval rating to January 7.\n\nPlease note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.", "date_begin": "2023-12-21", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-22\", 0.125], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.155], 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Season?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-21-named-storms-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name 21 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if NOAA names 21 or more storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nIf 21 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to \"Yes\" immediately. Note: storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it are included in NOAA\u2019s count. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA\u2019s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.\n\n\nThis market may only resolve to \"No\" after November 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a \"Yes\" resolution have not occurred before then.", "date_begin": "2023-09-27", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-27\", 0.38], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.625], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.625], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.625], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.625], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.625], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.625], 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[\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.004], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.001]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/)\"]"}, {"question": "Will \"Trump\" be said by every candidate in the 4th RNC primary debate?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-said-by-every-candidate-in-the-4th-rnc-primary-debate", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \"Trump\" or \"trump\" is said at least once by every invited candidate during the RNC primary debate scheduled for December 6, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nMentions of the word trump need not specifically refer to any individual. For example if a candidate says \"My policies trump his!\" it will count.\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond December 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-12-05", "date_close": "2023-12-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.675], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.725], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.825], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.835], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.845], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.935], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.97], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.97], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9705], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Oppenheimer' gross over $50m on its second weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-oppenheimer-gross-over-50m-on-its-second-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Oppenheimer' (2023) will gross domestically on its second weekend. The \u201cDomestic Daily\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3725886209/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for each of the the 3 days consisting of this movie's second weekend (July 28 - July 30) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Oppenheimer' (2023) grosses more than $50,000,000 on its second weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf there is no final data available by August 7, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-07-24", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-24\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.64], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.645], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.65], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.65], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.425], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.455], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.46], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.46], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.48], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.485], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.515], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.525], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.655], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.665], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.675], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.685], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.685], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.695], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.455], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.485], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.485], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.485], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.52], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.48], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.485], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.515], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.515], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.53], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.56], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.57], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.57], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.585], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.625], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.635], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.375], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.38], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.43], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.465], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.485], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.485], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.525], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.525], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.53], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.53], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.53], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.53], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.08], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.085], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.09], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.095], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.1], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.11], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.115], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.135], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.15], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.155], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.18], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.255], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.015], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.025], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.03], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.035], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.07], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.075], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3725886209/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Faze Banks\u2019 share price be >10 ETH this month?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-faze-banks-share-price-be-10-eth-this-month", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Faze Banks' share price is over 10 ETH at any point by August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThe resolution source will be the friend.tech app. A consensus of credible sources will also suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-08-21", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-21\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.12], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.125], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.012], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0175], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0235], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.024], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.0245], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.002], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0025], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.004], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0065], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0065], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0065], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0065], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.0075], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.48], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.505], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.05], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.495], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.495]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Was Sam Altman fired due to data leak / privacy issue?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/was-sam-altman-fired-due-to-data-leak--privacy-issue", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if definitive evidence is released that at least part of the reason Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI was due to a data leak/privacy issue by November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or Sam Altman, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-18", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-18\", 0.0155], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0245], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0245], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0245], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0245], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0245], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0245], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0255], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0255], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0275], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0295], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0305], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0305], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.032], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.11], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.5], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, that this market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named TIME's Person of the Year either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, so long as Volodymyr Zelenskyy is directly referenced. If, for example, the Person of the Year is \"Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Spirit of Ukraine\", this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If, however, the Person of the Year is the \"The People of Ukraine\", this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Time's cover and other Time webpages have different winners for the Person of the Year, only one of them has to mention Volodymyr Zelenskyy as the winner for this market to resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThis market can resolve after the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 15, 2024 (11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve to \"No\".\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-18", "date_close": "2024-01-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.165], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.215], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.255], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.255], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.255], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.505], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.54], 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resolve to \"Yes\" if Claudine Gay ceases to be President of Harvard University for any length of time from December 19, 2023 through March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of her resignation before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation goes into effect.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be official statements from Harvard University or a consensus of credible reporting.\n", "date_begin": "2023-12-20", "date_close": "2024-03-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Education & Research", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.225], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.34], 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[\"2023-12-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.535], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.47], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.515], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.52], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.445], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.445], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.45], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.46], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.465], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.475], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.475], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.395], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.395], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.395], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.395], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.395], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.395], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.395], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.425], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.425], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.425], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.425], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.425], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.435], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.435], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.435], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.435], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.435], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.435], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.685], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9945], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9995], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9995], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Zelensky visit Israel by Nov 10?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-zelensky-visit-israel-by-nov-10", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "If Volodymyr Zelensky visits Israel between November 3 and November 10, 11:59 PM IST, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Zelensky physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Zelensky enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Zelensky, information released by his verified social media accounts, Ukraine, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-03", "date_close": "2023-11-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-03\", 0.405], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.745], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.635], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.64], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.655], 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"extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will WeWork announce bankruptcy by November 12?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-wework-announce-bankruptcy-by-november-12", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if WeWork announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by November 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels (e.g. https://www.wework.com/newsroom, etc.), as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents WeWork.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-01", "date_close": "2023-11-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.905], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.88], 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[\"2023-11-04\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.615], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.84], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.9]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.wework.com/newsroom,\"]"}, {"question": "Will Tom Emmer be the next Speaker?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-tom-emmer-be-the-next-speaker", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tom Emmer is elected to be the next US Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, unelected or temporary Speakers will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\nIf a new US Speaker of the House is not elected by June 30, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "date_begin": "2023-10-12", "date_close": "2024-06-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-12\", 0.496], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.5055], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0745], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0745], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0745], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1245], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1245], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1245], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1775], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1775], [\"2023-10-13\", 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Freddy's' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl764248833/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 27 - October 29) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) grosses more than $100,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. \n\nIf there is no final data available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-17\", 0.465], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.465], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.515], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.525], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.525], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-18\", 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"polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if, for a third time in 2023, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time August 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nFor the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-06-06", "date_close": "2023-08-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-06\", 0.76], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.76], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.76], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.76], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.775], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.775], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.595], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.685], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.695], [\"2023-06-07\", 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".  \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of these replications.\n\nIf there is ambiguity as to whether replications under consideration for the resolution of this market are credible, this may remain open until July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, to allow for the publication of any replication results in a reputable journal. One such publication will be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\".  If no such paper is published by this delayed resolution time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-26", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-26\", 0.155], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.165], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.19], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.215], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.225], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.14], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.155], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.16], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.17], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.195], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.21], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.215], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.215], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.215], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.215], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.22], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.235], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.235], 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[\"2023-12-30\", 0.0085], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0085], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0085], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0085], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0085], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0085], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.007], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.008], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.0085], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.0085], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.0085], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.0085], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.007], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.007], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.007], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.007], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.007], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.007], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.007], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.007]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008)\", \"https://thequantuminsider.com/2024/01/04/its-back-researchers-say-theyve-replicated-lk-99-room-temperature-superconductor-experiment/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-us-open", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "The market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Novak Djokovic wins the 2023 US Open Men's Singles tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for Novak Djokovic to win in Men's Singles based on the rules of the US Open, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the US Open (https://www.usopen.org/), however credible reporting may also be used.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-29", "date_close": "2023-09-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-29\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.415], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.415], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.415], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.46], 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[\"2023-09-09\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.735], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.735], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.735], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.685], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.685], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.685], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.685], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.705], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.705], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.715], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.725], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.765], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.515], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.usopen.org/),\"]"}, {"question": "Will SBF plead guilty by August 21?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-sbf-plead-guilty-by-august-21", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SBF pleads guilty to any charge by August 21, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-08-14", "date_close": "2023-08-21", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.11], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.02], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0205], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0205], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.0205], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.031], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.04], [\"2023-08-15\", 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[\"2023-08-22\", 0.449], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.449], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.4495], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.4495], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.451]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Mahmoud Abbas still be President of the State of Palestine by the end of 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-mahmoud-abbas-still-be-president-of-the-state-of-palestine-by-the-end-of-2023", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Mahmoud Abbas remains in power as the President of the State of Palestine and the Palestinian National Authority until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023. \"In power\" is defined as Abbas still officially holding the office of the President of Palestine, as confirmed by reliable sources such as verified news outlets or official Palestinian government statements. If Abbas is no longer holding the office for any reason, including death, resignation, or removal, by the stated date, the market will resolve to \"No\". If Abbas departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-10-09", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.885], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-11\", 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[\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.985], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.957], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.957], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.957], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.957], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.985], 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[\"2023-12-30\", 0.9555], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9555], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9555], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.956], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9575], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9575], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9575], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9575], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.957], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.957], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.957], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.957], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.957], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.957], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.957], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.957]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/politics/17119\"]"}, {"question": "Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-hakeem-jeffries-be-the-next-speaker", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hakeem Jeffries is elected to be the next US Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, unelected or temporary Speakers will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\nIf a new US Speaker of the House is not elected by June 30, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "date_begin": "2023-10-17", "date_close": "2024-06-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-17\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0295], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0295], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0295], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0295], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0295], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.0295], 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0.0445], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.052], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0445], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0455], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0455], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0455], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0455], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0455], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0455], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0455], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.044], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0195], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0225], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0305], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0305], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.0305], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.031], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.031]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Japan win the 2023 Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-japan-win-the-2023-womens-world-cup", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Japan is the Champion of FIFA Women's World Cup 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if the team is eliminated or otherwise has no path to victory based on the rules of the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023.\n\nIf no Champion of FIFA Women's World Cup 2023 is declared by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (e.g. https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/womens/womensworldcup/australia-new-zealand2023/scores-fixtures), including official footage from the World Cup, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-27", "date_close": "2023-08-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-27\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.505], [\"2023-07-27\", 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"question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power as the Prime Minister of Israel until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023. \"In power\" is defined as Netanyahu still officially holding the office of the Prime Minister of Israel, as confirmed by reliable sources such as verified news outlets or official government statements. If Netanyahu is no longer holding the office for any reason, including death, resignation, or removal, by the stated date, the market will resolve to \"No\". If Netanyahu departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-10-09", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.935], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.945], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.945], 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[\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9775]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Virginia State Legislature: Will Republicans gain full control?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/virginia-state-legislature-will-republicans-gain-full-control", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, following the 2023 legislative elections in Virginia, the Republican party has control in both the Virginia Senate and the Virginia House. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA tie in the Senate (20-20 split of members) will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution as the Lieutenant Governor, a Republican, is the tiebreaker.\n\nA tie in the House will result in a \"No\" resolution as tie votes in the House fail to advance a bill for further action.\n\nDetermination of the results of the 2023 legislative elections in Virginia will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2023 election results.", "date_begin": "2023-11-06", "date_close": "2023-11-07", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.24], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.205], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.215], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.013], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.05], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.2]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Wonka' gross over $40m over its opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-wonka-gross-over-40m-over-its-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Wonka' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2942927617/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 15 - December 17) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Wonka' (2023) grosses more than $40,000,000 on its 3-day opening. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by December 22, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-12-11", "date_close": "2023-12-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-12\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.35], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.38], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.16], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.16], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.285], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.145], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.24], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.245], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.385], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.585], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.67], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.675], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.205], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.225], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.455], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.0025], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.02], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.105], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.155], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.495], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.575], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.0015], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.0015]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2942927617/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last the full 4 days?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-hamas-x-israel-ceasefire-last-the-full-4-days", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first ceasefire between Hamas and Israel pursuant to a hostage/prisoner exchange deal after the creation of this market lasts at least 4 full days (96 consecutive hours). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such ceasefire starts by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM IST (Israeli Standard Time), this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible information and reporting.\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-22", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-22\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.745], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.745], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.805], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.69], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.695], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.76], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.76], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.48], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.795], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.83], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.825], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.83], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.835], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.835], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.835], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.835], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.835], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.915], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.92], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.925], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.935], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.9565], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.957], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.956], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.956], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.956], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.956], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9585], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9585], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9595], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9625], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9625], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9625], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9625], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9625], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9625], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9625], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9625], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.98], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.98], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9865], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9875], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.991], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.994], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9945], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9965], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9965], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9965], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9985], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9985], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/2-palestinians-killed-11-wounded-trying-to-reach-north-gaza-despite-idf-warnings-ap/\", \"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire\", \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-releases-israeli-thai-hostages-under-temporary-truce-2023-11-26/\", \"https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-11-26-2023-556b251fadc25a234a499e957edd218d\"]"}, {"question": "Bangladesh Election: Sheikh Hasina reelected as Prime Minister?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bangladesh-election-sheikh-hasina-reelected-as-prime-minister", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "The Bangladesh general election is scheduled for January 7, 2024.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sheikh Hasina is reelected as Prime Minister as a result of the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Bangladesh\u2019s government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.\n", "date_begin": "2024-01-03", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2024-01-03\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.64], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.68], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.74], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.795], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.915], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.975], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.984], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.984], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.984], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.988], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.988], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.988], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.988], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.988], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9885], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9895], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.991], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.991]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the Poloniex hacker return the stolen funds by Nov 17?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-poloniex-hacker-return-the-stolen-funds-by-nov-17", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "On November 10, 2023, Poloniex was hacked for around $120 million dollars. Shortly afterwards Justin Sun tweeted to the unknown hacker that they have 7 days to return the funds before engaging law enforcement (see https://twitter.com/justinsuntron/status/1722951876986204259).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least 80% of the money hacked from Poloniex is returned by Nov 17, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Poloniex and Justin Sun, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-10", "date_close": "2023-11-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.06], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.0605], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.0555], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.0555], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.056], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.0355], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.0355], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.0355], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.0355], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.0355], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.036], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.038], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.046], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.017], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0315], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0315], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0315], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0315], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0315], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0315], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0315], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0315], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.033], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.0355], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.013], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.013], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.014], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.016], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.01]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/justinsuntron/status/1722951876986204259).\"]"}, {"question": "US military intervention by Oct 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-intervention-by-oct-31", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET the United States engages in a kinetic strike relating to the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict. This market will also resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the US deploys any new troops on the ground with the explicit purpose of combat operations in the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict. Official announcements can include, but are not limited to, statements or press releases issued by the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or public speeches by the U.S. President or Secretary of Defense.\n\nThe market will resolve to \"No\" if no such intervention occurs by October 31, 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-10-10", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-10\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.555], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.0355], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-11\", 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"[\"https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b\", \"https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/israel-hamas-war-october-26\", \"https://t.me/israel_9/55352\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/23/israel-gaza-war-marine-general-ground-operation\", \"https://asiatimes.com/2023/10/houthis-iranian-missiles-aimed-for-us-ship-not-israel/\", \"https://www.axios.com/2023/10/23/israel-gaza-war-marine-general-ground-operation\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLSsbPRDvtg\", \"https://abcnews.go.com/International/security-incident-involving-us-navy-destroyer-red-sea/story?id=104147141\", \"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/26/us-military-troops-middle-east-commitment-trap-israel-gaza-war\", \"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/26/politics/us-strikes-facilities-syria/index.html\", \"https://twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1717613301230678268?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet\", \"https://twitter.com/Yonatan_Touval/status/1716630443338919984?s=20\", \"https://x.com/insiderscorner/status/1717636499502518439?s=20\", \"https://discord.gg/gS2fgYrs\", \"https://discord.gg/gS2fgYrs\", \"https://discord.gg/gS2fgYrs\", \"https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/07/pentagon-says-al-qaeda-veteran-killed-in-kinetic-strike-in-syria.php)\", \"https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-taliban-who-shot-down-helicopter-killed-in-kinetic-strike-2011-8)\", \"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3570798/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iiis-statement-on-us-military-strikes-in-ea/).\", \"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3570798/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iiis-statement-on-us-military-strikes-in-ea/\", \"https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3567672/f-16s-head-to-middle-east-to-help-protect-us-troops/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_Eo4KLt8Ik\", \"https://discord.gg/GSqHHZ5S\", \"https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3571452/a-senior-defense-official-and-a-senior-military-official-hold-a-background-brie/\", \"https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3567672/f-16s-head-to-middle-east-to-help-protect-us-troops/\", \"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_Eo4KLt8Ik\", \"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/31/us/politics/us-israel-hostages.html\", \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/30/us-is-not-telling-israel-what-to-do-vice-president-kamala-harris\", \"https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-islamic-resistance-iraq\", \"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-west-bank-airstrikes-iran-hezbollah-houthis/\", \"https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/yemens-houthi-rebels-claim-attacks-israel-drawing-main-104514030.\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25 bps after its September meeting?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-raise-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-its-september-meeting", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if following the Federal Reserve's September 2023 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased exactly 25 basis points over the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC\u2019s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 19-20, 2023 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC\u2019s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by September 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.", "date_begin": "2023-07-19", "date_close": "2023-09-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.495], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/us-ethereum-etf-approved-in-2023", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Ethereum-based futures ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 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"multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel begins flooding Hamas tunnels with seawater by December 15, 2023, 11:59 IST (Israel Standard Time, GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be announcements by the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-12-08", "date_close": "2023-12-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-08\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.425], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.625], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.655], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.195], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.195], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.235], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.255], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.275], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.18], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.18], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.075], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.095], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.115], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.9795], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.9805], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.982], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.9885], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.983], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.9885], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.989], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.9985]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-sunday", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by October 22, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza. A \"major ground offensive\" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves greater than 1000 Israeli ground forces, and does not include smaller raids or special operations. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe market will resolve to \"No\" if no such major ground offensive takes place in Gaza by the Israeli forces by October 22. If the event occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-10-20", "date_close": "2023-10-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-20\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.095], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.1], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.545], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.075], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.001], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0105], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0105], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.014], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.0195]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will \"Biden\" be said by every candidate in the 4th RNC primary debate?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-be-said-by-every-candidate-in-the-4th-rnc-primary-debate", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \"Biden\" is said at least once by every participating candidate during the RNC primary debate scheduled for December 6, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond December 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-12-05", "date_close": "2023-12-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.855], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.885], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.885], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.885], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.955], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.965], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9695], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9695], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9995], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Egypt Presidential Election: Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi win?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/egypt-presidential-election-will-abdel-fattah-el-sisi-win", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "Egypt\u2019s 2023 presidential election is currently scheduled to take place on December 10-12, 2023.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Incumbent President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi wins the 2023 Egyptian presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by October 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-10-25", "date_close": "2023-12-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-25\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.875], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9845], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9845], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9845], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9845], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9845], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9845], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9845], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9845], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.9845], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9795], 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[\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9905]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be 38.0% or higher on December 12?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-joe-bidens-538-approval-rating-be-380-or-higher-on-december-12", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than or equal to 38.0% for the day of December 12, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the datapoint for December 12 as soon as a datapoint for December 13 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the December 13 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for December 12 is available by December 13, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous approval rating to December 12.\n\nPlease note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.", "date_begin": "2023-12-05", "date_close": "2023-12-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.695], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.375], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.395], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.405], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.275], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.305], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.335], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.375], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.295], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.295], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.295], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.295], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.295], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.365], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.295], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.175], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.325], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.47], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.47], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.48], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.475], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.775], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.785], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.785], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/,\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl LVIII?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-jacksonville-jaguars-win-super-bowl-lviii", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl LVIII. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2024-01-06", "date_close": "2024-02-10", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2024-01-06\", 0.0225], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.0225], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.023], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.023], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.025], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.03], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.5], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0045], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0215], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.023], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0235], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0235], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0235], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0235], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.024], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.026], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.026], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Oct 15?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-kevin-mccarthy-remain-speaker-through-oct-15", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-09-13", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-13\", 0.86], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.86], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.895], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.905], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.905], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.915], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.915], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.915], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.915], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.915], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.915], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.915], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, that this market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Taylor Swift is named TIME's Person of the Year either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, so long as Taylor Swift is directly referenced. If, for example, the Person of the Year is \"Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce\", this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If, however, the Person of the Year is \"Pop Stars\", this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Time's cover and other Time webpages have different winners for the Person of the Year, only one of them has to mention Taylor Swift as the winner for this market to resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThis market can resolve after the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 15, 2024 (11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-11-29", "date_close": "2024-01-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-29\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.201], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.201], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1425], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1425], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1475], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1475], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1475], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1475], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1475], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.149], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.1745], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.184], 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[\"2023-12-05\", 0.2395], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.2395], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.24], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.2415], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.2415], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.215], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.2175], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.265], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.279], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.2905], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.3075], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.315], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.3495], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.4445], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.502], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.645], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.9945], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/time-person-of-the-year-odds/#:~:text=Swift%20is%20an%20overwhelming%20favorite,Person%20of%20the%20Year%202023.\"]"}, {"question": "Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on October 1, 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-united-states-on-october-1-2023", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on October 1, 2023, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201c if, at the time of this market's resolution, Joe Biden is the President of the United States as officially substantiated by US government sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is https://www.whitehouse.gov/; however, other official government sources may be used.", "date_begin": "2023-06-22", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.9455], 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criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nFor the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-06-13", "date_close": "2023-06-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-13\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.505], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.01], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.015], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.025], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.035], [\"2023-06-14\", 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[\"2023-07-01\", 0.03]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will PSOE win over 28.0% of votes in the 2023 Spanish general election?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-psoe-win-over-280-of-votes-in-the-2023-spanish-general-election", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Espa\u00f1ol, The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) gets over 28.0% of votes for the Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados) in the 2023 Spanish general election scheduled for July 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity official information from the Spanish government and/or information published through the official website of the Kingdom of Spain's Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/opencms/es/elecciones-celebradas/elecciones-anteriores/) will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-10", "date_close": "2023-07-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-07-11\", 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"[\"https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/opencms/es/elecciones-celebradas/elecciones-anteriores/)\"]"}, {"question": "Will George Santos start an OnlyFans in 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-george-santos-start-an-onlyfans-in-2023", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if ex-congressman George Santos starts an OnlyFans page featuring himself by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThis market may immediately resolve to \"No\" if it is impossible for the Nuggets to win 4-0 (e.g. they lose a game).\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-02", "date_close": "2023-06-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-02\", 0.205], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.235], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.26], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.35], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.35], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.35], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.35], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.35], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.5], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.195], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.205], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.205], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.205], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.205], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.205], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.21], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.215], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.2], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.215], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.215], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.215], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.215], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.005], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.05], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.235]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'The Marvels' gross more than $65 million domestically on its opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-marvels-gross-more-than-65-million-domestically-on-its-opening-weekend", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'The Marvels' (2023) grosses more than $65,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-10-30", "date_close": "2023-11-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-30\", 0.39], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.275], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.285], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.315], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.365], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.395], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.4], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.235], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.275], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.31], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.165], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.31], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.31], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16], 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0.005], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.006], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/\", \"https://screencrush.com/the-marvels-early-reviews/\"]"}, {"question": "Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-steve-scalise-be-the-next-speaker", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Steve Scalise is elected to be the next US Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, unelected or temporary Speakers will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\nIf a new US Speaker of the House is not elected by June 30, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "date_begin": "2023-10-03", "date_close": "2024-06-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.43], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.545], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.565], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.575], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.58], 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"https://polymarket.com/event/sally-kornbluth-still-mit-president-by-end-of-2023", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sally Kornbluth remains President of MIT until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023. The resolution source will be official statements from MIT or a consensus of credible reporting. If Kornbluth is no longer holding the office for any reason by the stated date, the market will resolve to \"No\". If Kornbluth departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n", "date_begin": "2023-12-06", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-06\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.895], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.905], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.905], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.905], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.905], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.905], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.91], 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0.9965], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.996], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.996], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.996], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.996], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9965], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9965], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9965], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9965], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9965], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9965], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9965], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.997]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://x.com/billackman/status/1733497168198004848?s=46&t=WEdYaQUpd7REVy8JJUq1DQ\"]"}, {"question": "Will a candidate say something racist at the next Republican debate?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-candidate-say-something-racist-at-the-next-republican-debate", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any candidate participating in the GOP debate scheduled for September 27, 2023 makes a racist statement during the debate.\n\nExplicitly racist remarks are defined as comments that directly discriminate, degrade, or express prejudice towards a particular race. \n\nIf no such remark is made during the debate, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-19", "date_close": "2023-10-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-19\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.245], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.255], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.115], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.18], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.04], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.05], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.135], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.165], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.265], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.625]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will anyone say \"Bidenomics\" in the RNC primary debate on August 23?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-anyone-say-bidenomics-in-the-rnc-primary-debate-on-august-23", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any candidate says \"Bidenomics\" during the RNC primary debate scheduled for August 23, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-08-21", "date_close": "2023-08-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-21\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.21], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.31], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.35], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.355], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.365], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.37], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.375], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.455], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.565], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.385], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.435], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.435], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.44], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.455], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.485], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.475], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.67], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.999], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.999]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Oppenheimer' gross over $65m on opening weekend?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-oppenheimer-gross-over-65m-on-opening-weekend", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Oppenheimer' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3725886209/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 21 - July 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \u2018Oppenheimer' (2023) grosses more than $65,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by July 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-07-19", "date_close": "2023-07-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-19\", 0.625], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.625], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.65], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.65], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.655], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.68], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.685], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.69], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.69], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.69], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.725], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.77], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.775], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.835], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.57], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.62], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.655], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.655], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.685], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.715], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.91], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.915], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.92], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.9405], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.972], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.94], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.982], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.986], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.986], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.986], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.986], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9875], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.988], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.988], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.989], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9895], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9895], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9895], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9895], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9895], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9925], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9925], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9925], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9925], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9925], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9945], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9905], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9915], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.992], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9935], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9975], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.998], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9985], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9985], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9985], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9985], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.999], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.999]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3725886209/\"]"}, {"question": "Over 500 OpenAI resignations this week?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/over-500-openai-resignations-this-week", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there are over 500 confirmed employee resignations from OpenAI by Nov 24, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\" A resignation is defined as a voluntary departure from a current position within the organization.\n\nConfirmation must come from official OpenAI announcements, credible news reporting, or direct statements from the individuals involved. This market may stay open past the deadline until is unambiguous as to whether the number of resignations before the end date was over/under 500.\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2023-11-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-20\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.3], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.08], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.085], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.09], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.095], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.135], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.15], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0065], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0075], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0075], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0075], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0015], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0025], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0005], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Shoigu still be Russian Minister of Defense on July 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-shoigu-still-be-russian-minister-of-defense-on-july-1", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the current  Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, remains the Russian Minister of Defense without interruption from June 24 through July 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Russian government, however in case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-06-24", "date_close": "2023-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-24\", 0.425], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.585], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.62], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.68], [\"2023-06-24\", 0.725], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.385], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.45], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.53], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.55], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.59], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.62], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.62], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.625], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.685], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.7], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.71], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.735], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.735], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.735], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.78], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.805], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.82], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.84], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.84], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.845], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.845], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.845], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.86], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.835], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.84], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.84], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.86], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.865], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.87], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.875], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.885], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.89], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.895], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.895], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.895], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.91], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.93], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.94], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.94], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.965], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.915], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.92], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.945], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.955], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.955], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.96], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.97], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-27\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.96], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.965], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.965], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.97], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.975], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.98], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.985], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.985], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.985], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.985], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.985], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.985], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.985], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.99], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.965], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Sam Altman tweet by Sunday?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-sam-altman-tweet-by-sunday", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sam Altman (@sama) tweets again, between November 17, 1:00 PM ET and November 19, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, but reposts will not count.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Sam Altman's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/sama\n\nPlease note, only the @sama verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Sam Altman tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.", "date_begin": "2023-11-17", "date_close": "2023-11-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-17\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.98], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.99], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.99], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.99], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.99], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.99]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/sama\", \"https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771\"]"}, {"question": "Was Sam Altman fired for sexually abusing his sister?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/was-sam-altman-fired-for-sexually-abusing-his-sister", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if definitive evidence is released that at least part of the reason Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI was for the sexual abuse of his sister by November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nGeneralized sexual misconduct will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". This market will only resolve to \"Yes\" if definitive evidence is released that at the least one of the reasons Sam Altman was fired was for the sexual abuse of his sister.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or Sam Altman, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-17", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-17\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0145], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0155], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0175], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0175], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.018], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0185], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0205], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.04], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.01], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0055], [\"2023-11-20\", 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\"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QDczBduZorG4dxZiW/sam-altman-s-sister-annie-altman-claims-sam-has-severely\"]"}, {"question": "Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be less than 38.5% on January 7?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-joe-bidens-538-approval-rating-be-less-than-385-on-january-7", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is less than 38.5% for the day of January 7, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the datapoint for January 7 as soon as a datapoint for January 8 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the January 8 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for January 7 is available by January 10, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous approval rating to January 7.\n\nPlease note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.", "date_begin": "2023-12-21", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-22\", 0.11], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.135], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.525], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.14], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.145], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.145], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.145], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.145], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.145], [\"2023-12-23\", 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"[\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/,\"]"}, {"question": "OpenAI board out by end of week?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/openai-board-out-by-end-of-week", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if all current board members of OpenAI as of Nov 19 (Ilya Sutskever, Adam D'Angelo, Helen Toner, Tasha McCauley) resign or are replaced from their positions by Nov 26, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResignation refers to officially stepping down from their positions, and must be confirmed by official OpenAI communication or credible news sources.", "date_begin": "2023-11-20", "date_close": "2023-11-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-20\", 0.18], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.195], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.155], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.17], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.225], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.23], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.255], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.26], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.265], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.295], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.015], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.0165], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.02], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.145], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.22], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.28], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.035], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0355], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.045], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0455], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0525], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.0525], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.055], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0075], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0075], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0075], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0075], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.008], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0095], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0305], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0335], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0035], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.007], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.002], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.003], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.001]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will PVV win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-pvv-win-a-plurality-in-the-2023-dutch-general-election", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if PVV (Party for Freedom) controls a greater number of seats in the House of Representatives than any other party after the results of the 2023 Dutch general election are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the results of this election aren't known by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity official information from the government of the Netherlands and/or information published through the official website of the Dutch electoral council (https://english.kiesraad.nl/) will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-11-17", "date_close": "2023-11-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-17\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.25], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0105], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.012], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0125], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.025], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.03], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0445], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.0465], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0645], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0645], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0645], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0645], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.065], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0675], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0675], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0675], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0675], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0705], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0795], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0845], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0845], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0845], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0865], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0865], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0865], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0655], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.07], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.075], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0845], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0905], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0905], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0905], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0905], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.092], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0925], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0965], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0965], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.0965], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.1295], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.3095], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.435], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1615], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.185], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.186], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1865], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.188], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.188], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.19], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.193], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.2], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.211], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.31], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.325], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.325], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.345], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.4245], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.425], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.425], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.43], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.43], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.315], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.3205], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.3275], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.389], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.395], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.395], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.415], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.435], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.435], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.445], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.455], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.515], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.9515], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.9525], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.8795], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9975], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://english.kiesraad.nl/)\", \"https://www.ioresearch.nl/actueel/io-zetelpeiling-pvv-gl-pvda-en-vvd-gelijk-aan-kop/\"]"}, {"question": "Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Thanksgiving?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-mrbeast-hit-200-million-subscribers-by-thanksgiving", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits 200 million subscribers by November 23, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-09-06", "date_close": "2023-11-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-07\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.645], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.745], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.58], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.635], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.635], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.565], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.52], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.525], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.535], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.545], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.53], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.575], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.59], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.615], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.62], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the results of this election aren't known by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity official information from the Polish government and/or information published through the official website of Poland's National Electoral Commission (PKW) (https://wybory.gov.pl/index/index.html) will be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-04", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-05\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.325], 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[\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.998], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.9985], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.9985]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://wybory.gov.pl/index/index.html)\"]"}, {"question": "Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Oct 15?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-egypt-open-its-border-for-palestinian-refugees-by-oct-15", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe \"Yes\" criterion include the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism which intends to allow the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-10-11", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.185], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.205], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.235], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.09], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.145], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.155], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.18], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.195], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.21], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.24], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.245], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.045], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.088], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1795], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0605], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.065], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0655], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0655], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.08], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.085], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0875], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0875], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.105], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.1595], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.1595], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.006], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.006], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.006], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0065], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0075], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0075], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.013], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.025], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.03], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.035], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0355], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0355], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.0405], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.05], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.055], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.06], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.0005], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "North Korea missile test by August 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/north-korea-missile-test-by-august-31", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile test between August 8, 9:00 AM ET and August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.", "date_begin": "2023-08-08", "date_close": "2023-08-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-21", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-08\", 0.44], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.44], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.465], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.465], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.47], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.34], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.39], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.425], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.425], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.425], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.44], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.535], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.545], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.315], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.305], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.195], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.225], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.23], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.235], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.245], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.335], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.255], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.645], 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0.645], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.595], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.585], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.645], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.67], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.67], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.74], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.74], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.74]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will USA win the 2023 Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-usa-win-the-2023-womens-world-cup", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if USA is the Champion of FIFA Women's World Cup 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if the team is eliminated or otherwise has no path to victory based on the rules of the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023.\n\nIf no Champion of FIFA Women's World Cup 2023 is declared by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (e.g. https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/womens/womensworldcup/australia-new-zealand2023/scores-fixtures), including official footage from the World Cup, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-07-27", "date_close": "2023-08-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-27\", 0.175], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.255], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.27], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.275], [\"2023-07-27\", 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0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if binance.com announces they will list $RLB (https://etherscan.io/token/0x046eee2cc3188071c02bfc1745a6b17c656e3f3d) by August 18, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBinance.com need only announce by the resolution date that they will list $RLB, regardless of if and when the actual listing occurs.", "date_begin": "2023-08-04", "date_close": "2023-08-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-05\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.25], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.055], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.06], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.065], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.07], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.09], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.105], [\"2023-08-06\", 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[\"2023-08-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.01], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.035], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.0505], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1005], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1005], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1505], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.2505], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.488], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.005]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://etherscan.io/token/0x046eee2cc3188071c02bfc1745a6b17c656e3f3d)\"]"}, {"question": "George Santos expelled in 2023?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/george-santos-expelled-in-2023", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if George Santos, Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 3rd district, is expelled from Congress by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf George Santos ceases to be a member of Congress before this market's end date without having been expelled, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official resolutions from the House of Representatives and information from the Government of the United States of America, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-16", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-16\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.45], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.47], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.51], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.59], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.245], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.465], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.485], 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weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'The Marvels' (2023) grosses more than $45,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.\n\nIf there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "date_begin": "2023-11-03", "date_close": "2023-11-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-03\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.76], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.48], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.48], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.48], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.485], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.58], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.6], 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[\"2023-11-11\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.66], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.66], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.66], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.685], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.745], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.945], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.9735], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.974], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.974], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6595], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6595], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6595], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.66], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6625], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.8945], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.96], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9645], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9645], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9645], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9675], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.974], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.974], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.974], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.974], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.995], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.9995], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Hamas x Israel ceasefire last 8 days?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-hamas-x-israel-ceasefire-last-8-days", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first ceasefire between Hamas and Israel pursuant to a hostage/prisoner exchange deal, which began on November 24, 2023, 7 AM IST (Israeli Standard Time), lasts at least 8 full days (192 consecutive hours). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible information and reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-11-26", "date_close": "2023-12-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-26\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.685], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.69], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.705], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.645], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.655], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.665], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.675], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.685], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.69], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.69], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.715], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.725], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.735], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.83], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.84], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.84], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.84], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.845], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.855], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.875], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.895], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.48], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.51], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.555], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.7], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.755], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.76], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.765], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.775], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.815], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.865], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.895], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.615], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.715], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.765], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.765]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1730456638161588558\"]"}, {"question": "Will \"China\" be said 15 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-be-said-15-or-more-times-in-the-2nd-rnc-primary-debate", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if \"China\" is said 15 or more times by the candidates (in total) during the RNC primary debate scheduled for September 27, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Forms such as \"Chinese\" will not count. \n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond October 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-09-26", "date_close": "2023-09-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-26\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.625], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.675], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.595], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.635], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.68], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.685], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.69], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.715], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.72], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.73], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.74], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.715], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.86], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.925], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9945], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.995], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9995], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9995], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9995], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9995], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9995], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9995]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will anyone say \"Bitcoin\" in the RNC primary debate on August 23?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-anyone-say-bitcoin-in-the-rnc-primary-debate-on-august-23", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "polymarket", "question_type": "multiple_choice", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any candidate says \"Bitcoin\" during the RNC primary debate scheduled for August 23, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.\n\nIf this event is cancelled or delayed beyond September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-08-16", "date_close": "2023-08-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-21\", 0.4], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.175], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.19], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.19], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.2], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.205], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.215], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.32], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.145], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.155], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.16], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.185], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.19], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.19], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.165], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.24], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.415], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.45]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before August 15, 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AndrewQuinn/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre-a3f48bd3c4a8", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The materials used in the paper are far cheaper and more available than previous ones, purchasable from Amazon for a few hundred USD. Given that, plus the magnitude of the discovery at play, we would expect to see an onslaught of people trying to replicate in the next few weeks.", "date_begin": "2023-07-26", "date_close": "2023-08-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-04\", 0.13353581483135732], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1344895058663302], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1344895058663302], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1344895058663302], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1344895058663302], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1344895058663302], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1344895058663302], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1344895058663302], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1399999999999999], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1399999999999999], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1399999999999999], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.14378312346437258], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.14405009167190036], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.14405009167190036], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.14737543766974898], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000001], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000002], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000002], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000002], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000002], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000002], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000002], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000002], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000002], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1500000000000002], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15028781299355123], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.1544180990729075], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.15513763655176097], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16226802496759718], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16435970312902956], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16435970312902956], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16435970312902956], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16435970312902956], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16435970312902956], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16528469051867864], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16605440691670245], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.16605440691670245], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17000000000000035], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17000000000000035], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17000000000000035], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17000000000000035], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17000000000000035], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17000000000000035], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17000000000000037], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17000000000000037], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17000000000000037], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17183069898888678], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17227218931472266], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17730821028350377], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17908596766770005], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17999999999999974], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17999999999999974], [\"2023-08-04\", 0.17999999999999974], 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death or incapacity \n\nTrial ongoing or awaiting sentencing at end of 2023", "date_begin": "2023-07-27", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-31\", 0.15233109348348742], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.1574374105492246], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.15785938827562693], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.15829318922810318], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.15866570862276816], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.1586795421745043], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.1586795421745043], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.1586795421745043], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.16345163524334136], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.14924384464173268], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.14938767621141588], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.14979008629784396], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.15002816115535755], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.1501685592395822], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.15082398501575864], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.15082398501575864], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.15082398501575864], [\"2023-11-01\", 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true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolution criteria\n\nThe question resolves Yes if at any point between Oct 7, 2023 and Dec 31, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Hamas no longer has de facto control of the majority of the Gaza Strip. It resolves No in all other cases, including if the consensus of credible reports is that control of Gaza is disputed, or if there is no consensus of credible reports.\n\nThis market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.", "date_begin": "2023-10-08", "date_close": "2024-01-02", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-29\", 0.21999999999999983], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.21999999999999983], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.21999999999999983], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.21999999999999992], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.21999999999999992], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.21999999999999992], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.21999999999999992], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.21999999999999992], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.22116785708740444], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.225001136912011], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.22510852945939347], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.22535481842982039], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.22535481842982039], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.22535481842982039], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.2259760518180469], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.2263002039195183], [\"2023-11-29\", 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0.004985478316059575], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.005495929688813077], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.005636368401589819], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.00566658218603189], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.005668194862323769], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.005668194862323769], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.00580276884421235], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0060699321218386365], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.00613424051662587], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.006311918589448233]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Novel pathogen found responsible for pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-a-novel-pathogen-be", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, before December 15, 2023, credible sources report that the pneumonia cases reportedly occurring in Beijing or Liaoning have been identified as being caused by a novel pathogen.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "date_begin": "2023-11-22", "date_close": "2023-12-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Healthcare & Biology", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-22\", 0.3362270007691893], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.3378378378378379], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.09773060669361198], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.09782828470438644], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10468171077855547], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10470574771083097], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10513998982400843], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10516343537775351], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10534151206000895], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10548101289262161], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10556355817541052], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10559109599977648], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10559457933426088], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10575704387147718], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10581276162032055], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10651184419224592], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.10782429185574775], [\"2023-11-23\", 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"extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of Sep 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre-a078593ba02f", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolution under the same criteria as\nhttps://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre\n\n\nWill the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?\n38% chance. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-07-27: Pasting my", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-02\", 0.21007481545254644], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.22101023080035162], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.24640373102944882], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2537641661873422], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2800000000000001], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2800000000000001], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2800000000000001], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2875586052762083], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29435696965261937], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-08-02\", 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So the closing time of this market.\n\nFor this to count as \"found safely\" and resolve to YES, they need to be located with some chance of rescue. So locating the submarine without knowing whether anyone on board is alive or even locating it with the knowledge that the passengers are alive without anyone being able to get to them before their air runs out would resolve to NO.\n\nLet me know if you would like any other elements of the resolution criterea to be clarified.", "date_begin": "2023-06-19", "date_close": "2023-06-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-19\", 0.29177178622898503], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.34456312479432993], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.34456312479433], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.3907575910324656], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.44406802216477415], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.5040593450863802], [\"2023-06-20\", 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"[\"https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/19/titanic-tourist-submarine-missing-north-atlantic\"]"}, {"question": "Will the WGA strike end by September 30?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-wga-strike-end-by-septembe", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the strike.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WGA (WGAW: https://www.wga.org/; WGAE: https://www.wgaeast.org/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-09-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.11000000000000007], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.25], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.2644014591760066], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.3025088169688305], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.33000000000000007], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.20977691382412383], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.20977691382412383], [\"2023-09-16\", 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0.9971366532252981], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9971389441026121], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.998575520881467], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9987491863491254], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.998750735624706]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will SpaceX's launch license for a second Starship\u2013Superheavy flight be granted by the FAA before November 16th?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-spacexs-launch-license-for-a-s", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves YES on the FAA issuing a launch license, before November 16th, that would authorise SpaceX's planned second integrated flight test of the Starship\u2013Superheavy vehicle, launching from Boca Chica, Texas on a near-orbital flight.\n\nThe existing license that authorised the first flight test can be found on the FAA's licenses page:\n\nhttps://explore.dot.gov/t/FAA/views/CommercialSpaceTransportation/LaunchLicenses?%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y\n\nas license \"VOL 23-129\".\n\nIt is expected that the FAA will modify the existing license in order to extend its applicability to the second flight. The existing license authorises the first flight only using the following language:\n\n4. Authorization: In accordance with the representations in the Space Exploration Technologies, Corp. application as of the date of this license, and any amendments to the license application or waivers approved by the FAA, in writing, Space Exploration Technologies, Corp. is authorized to conduct launch consisting of:\n\na. Pre-flight ground operations:\n    i. Using the Starship-Super Heavy vehicle.\n    ii. At SpaceX Boca Chica Launch Complex, Boca Chica, Texas.\nb. Flight Operations:\n    i. Using the Starship-Super Heavy vehicle.\n    ii. From SpaceX Boca Chica Launch Complex, Boca Chica, Texas.\n    iii. To Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean locations specified in its application.\n    iv. For the first flight only, unless this license is modified to remove this term.\nIt is expected that the final term iv restricting authorisation to the first flight only will be removed. However, any license authorising a second Starship\u2013Superheavy flight launching from Boca Chica to the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean will cause this market to resolve YES.\n\nThis market will resolve YES on such a modified license appearing on the FAA's licenses page, or on a new license document appearing there that would authorise the second flight, or on reliable media reports that the FAA has granted such a license, even if they have yet to update their webpage (this happened previously). Such evidence must appear before November 16th, even if we later discover the license was issued in some sense before November 16th, if this is not public information conveyed by reliable sources before November 16th, this market will resolve NO.\n\nArbitrary restrictions contained within such a license still count for the purposes of this market - such as if a license is granted but does not authorise a flight until next year.\n\nIt does not matter whether there are other regulatory requirements SpaceX also need in order to launch, in addition to a launch license from the FAA. This market resolves only on an FAA license, or NO on November 16th if none is issued.\n\nThe relevant timezone for \"before November 16th\" is local time in Texas.\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-25", "date_close": "2023-11-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-25\", 0.47683363834613657], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.47683363834613657], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5820096973750208], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.4999999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5000000000000006], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.5799999999999997], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.6000000000000002], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.489343907250892], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.6742151732085079], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5404485247245548], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5584782544227753], 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0.9981302420742966], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.9985136764818204]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://explore.dot.gov/t/FAA/views/CommercialSpaceTransportation/LaunchLicenses?%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y\"]"}, {"question": "Will 'Oppenheimer' (2023) gross more than $1B worldwide before 2024?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-oppenheimer-2023-gross-more-th", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Will resolve based on the Box Office Mojo reported numbers. Will resolve YES if it reaches $1 Billion worldwide, or NO if it hasn't reached $1 Billion worldwide in the Box Office Mojo total by Jan 1, 2024.\n\nhttps://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15398776\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-20", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-20\", 0.06088111615617514], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.08999999999999996], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.2808988764044944], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.08147285443791667], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.10440309385958334], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.0390456294152167], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.05000000000000001], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.08395172609636324], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.08664137041314111], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.09999999999999994], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.1199273051695802], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.12000000000000002], 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Replication will mean either a peer-reviewed publication of room temperature and pressure superconductor or general expert consensus that the result is real (e.g. a flood of Archive results that do not involve any of the 3 authors on the original paper and are being discussed and analyzed on twitter without significant blow-back that the results are fake/wrong).", "date_begin": "2023-07-26", "date_close": "2023-10-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-26\", 0.07961783439490451], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.11791456298746127], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.14772462703446637], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.1511834143874056], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-07-26\", 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0.9783115028653901], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.9783115028653904], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.9802739080914675], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.9819200900010076], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.9833201136294422], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.984524856813089], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9847458803177099], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.985749532820105], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.9982659537211888], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.995630375330557], [\"2023-07-05\", 0.9957889854366503], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9889277588969839], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.9991259065537914], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.9995616615541154]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temp superconductors before 2024?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SG/will-there-be-a-highcredibility-spu", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Background: Spurious replications during cold fusion\n\nA \"high-credibility spurious replication\" is a replication attempt accepted by a substantial fraction of the scientific community, that is later shown to be mistaken or whose substantial claims are later retracted. I will exclude replications that seem crankish (some degree of subjectivity is inevitable). (The standard is such that the conditition would have been met during the cold fusion craze.)\n\nThe replication must be published (or pre-print shared) in 2023; the debunking may occur later. I may wait until 2025 to resolve if uncertain...\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-02\", 0.2503838020357244], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.261183249121108], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2654086475734478], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2705510618096882], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.27386896604368777], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2747046595547563], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2772500319354052], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2806958036592235], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2806958036592235], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2806958036592235], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2806958036592235], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2806958036592235], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.281238740009999], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2930817299119079], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.30131003761289943], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.31429049547458393], [\"2023-08-02\", 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It was so counter to everything he has done since the beginning of Covid it feels like a genuine rapproachement. From Reuters:\n\"I often say the foundation of U.S.-China relations lies with its people. I place my hopes on the American people,\" a video published by state broadcaster CCTV showed Xi as saying.\n\n\"With the current global situation, we can carry out various activities beneficial to our two countries and people, activities that benefit humanity as a whole,\" he said.\n\nGates, who arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, said he was \"honoured\" to have the chance to meet. \"We've always had great conversations and we'll have lot of important topics to discuss today ... it's very exciting to be back.\"\n\nXi also discussed the global rise of artificial intelligence (AI) with Bill Gates and said he welcomed U.S. firms including Microsoft bringing their AI tech to China, two sources familiar with the talks said.\nThis resolves YES if Xi follows up this visit by Gates to Beijing with a visit to Redmond to visit Microsoft, as no doubt Gates extended the invitation.\n\nAll US visits count. Everyone who bet on either side gets 100 mana tip if the exact story in the description plays out.\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-16", "date_close": "2023-11-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-14\", 0.5899999999999997], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.5935479684763586], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.5988622856857881], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.611115330180379], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.577517745825649], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5911897401535886], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5925412883525468], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.602148087035215], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6071577297369359], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6100381305016707], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6100381305016707], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6100381305016707], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6168453788872422], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 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The exchange rate peaked at 134 on March 11th, 2022, but fell to around ~60 for the latter half of 2022. Throughout 2023, it has been steadily rising. \n\nWill the USD/RUB exchange rate exceed 100 for a continuous period of 30 days in 2023? Resolves according to the prices displayed on Google Finance.\n\nClarification:\nExceeding 100 for a continuous period of 30 days means that Google Finance must display the daily price as >100 for 30 days in a row. In line with my other USD/RUB market, this will be assessed by looking at the data points from the Google Finance monthly chart. It seems this was the consensus understanding, but if anyone feels deceived by this, you can leave a comment. \n\nCurrently, Oct 5th, 6th, and 7th are showing as >100, so we are at 3 continuous days.", "date_begin": "2023-07-08", "date_close": "2023-12-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 0.2997149723127668], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3004635136357393], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3014270791891899], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3014270791891899], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3014270791891899], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3031367131950095], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3031367131950095], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3031367131950095], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3195266213780303], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.321300839708293], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.33102758689326073], [\"2023-10-03\", 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it\n\nHere are some markets on other UK economic stats:\n\nWill the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 15th November be below 7%?\nYES\n\u200c\nWill the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 15th November be below 6%?\nYES\n\u200c\nWill the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 10th November show positive growth?\nYES\n\u200c\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-02", "date_close": "2023-12-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-02\", 0.09686980337657812], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.1], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.11308291536066438], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.12194197921695528], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.13999999999999999], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.14527369941715812], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.1763539210553862], 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"[]"}, {"question": "Will Tesla deliver its first Cybertruck in Q3/23?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Yves/will-tesla-deliver-its-first-cybert", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Related Question: https://manifold.markets/Yves/will-tesla-produce-more-than-1500-c?r=WXZlcw\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-19", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-30\", 0.3152862628048566], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.31911619834481003], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.3245409347053975], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.33366381934062783], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.3344639067838886], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.3443510196222126], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.3444030046869795], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.34544801197626335], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.3501722697227546], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.350822323312036], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.3530080531806341], 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"url": "https://manifold.markets/Dynd/will-there-be-a-major-school-shooti", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a \"mass shooting\" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun.\n\nThis will resolve to YES if a shooting in a school occurs in the United States with four or more fatal victims, before end of 2023, from the creation date of this question.\n\nThis will resolve to NO if no school shooting occurs in the US with four fatal victims or more.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-02", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-03\", 0.3405586633280537], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.37166522908342603], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3790278058274998], 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published on 15th November be below 7%?\nYES\n\u200c\nWill the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 15th November be below 6%?\nYES\n\u200c\nWill the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 10th November show positive growth?\nYES\n\u200c\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-21", "date_close": "2023-11-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.25102508342913926], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.33], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3358444726961508], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.34593633587874245], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3744187521878918], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3749529026684759], 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[\"2024-01-02\", 0.0055609885783750946], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.005728109947511781], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.005728425523585879], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.005728425523585879], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.005728425523585879], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.007064028735846409], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.008994138452985505], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.009583192610100483], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.009599482946445534], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.010152118162907306], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.010153972398393354], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.010153972398393354], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.010153972398393354], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.010245027993669692], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.021453109815835102], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.021458640050808837], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.021458640050808837], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.021458640050808837], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.02173094965911458], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.023943592389696587], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.024057879400754687], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.024064414043837003], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.024064414043837003], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.024064414043837003], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0243863402704636], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0243863402704636], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0243863402704636], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.02441887708417105], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.02442555493369362], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.02442555493369362], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.02442555493369362], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.02475455789300424], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.04838517546878226], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.04838517546878226], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.04838517546878226], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.04927421616957229], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.05160246320397368], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.0613855158894016], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.06141085044181303], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.15406789053767544], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.17000000000000015], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.17556232393073978], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.18908731944710264], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.20000000000000004], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.20000000000000004], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.20000000000000004], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.20102924932135288], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.21000000000000005], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.21000000000000005], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.21000000000000005], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.2499999999999999], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.26258082312338404], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.2693086361145392], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.2693086361145392], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.27676205321642644], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.277788542908199], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.2857838421660185], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.28680837196963244], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.28912073908469477], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.289945441266741], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.29016084603912756], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.29016084603912756], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.29016084603912756], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.2905781999183387], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.2909677165999148], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.2996064595859081], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.30062294109930443], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3006963055757172], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3062197352524052], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3157783869107534], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.31636566213690404], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3175415619308878], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.317651398694459], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3210670166115376], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.32357350081185926], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3259301288998799], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3271465852325115], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.32772526103872973], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.32772526103872973], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.32772526103872973], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3283685281091056], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3289498130870158], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3321803954266711], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3321803954266711], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3321803954266711], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.33320243242522257], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3334227785084866], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3455041536298571], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3455041536298571], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3455041536298571], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3483690066402531]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Bitcoin's price be above $27500 on June 30th?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-bitcoins-price-be-above-27500-a088218e57c0", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves on June 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the BTC/BUSD spot market.\nhttps://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/\nhttps://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin\nhttps://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_BUSD\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-01", "date_close": "2023-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-01\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.3775542602282731], [\"2023-06-04\", 0.4592309927779436], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.18924671955427466], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.18924671955427466], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.18924671955427466], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.4107959937542283], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.45], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.4725836118950376], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.3262351647168767], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.36207627418254557], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.14049831761808773], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.16616000698427463], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.16616000698427463], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.16616000698427463], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.12392093936826713], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.14], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.14], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.14], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.18123957070668473], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.3046946118101637], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.3591685604103418], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.4200000000000001], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.5811286635529068], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.5811286635529068], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.5811286635529068], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.6276363952116979], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.65], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.6655795614377726], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.680248696638078], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.698221752430279], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7240867170291717], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7446627388887102], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7904629741349151], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.8], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.8233377307264156], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.8391892488447728], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.8539098206892576], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.8759725350268468], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.9396743225237624], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.9561540825148511], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.9644510840631302], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.970582040136958], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.970582040136958], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.970582040136958], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9999765427566336], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9999765427566336], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9999765427566336]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/\", \"https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_BUSD\"]"}, {"question": "Will Ethereum's price be above $1850 on June 30th?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-ethereums-price-be-above-1850", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves on June 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the ETH/BUSD spot market.\nhttps://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/\nhttps://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum\nhttps://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-01", "date_close": "2023-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-01\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-06-02\", 0.6430293934030077], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.43452968842723255], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5495738477437165], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5495738477437165], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.5495738477437165], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.390473050927399], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.14161209784297177], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.6430293934030074], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.460127230383852], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.5157206903441423], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.6141871813972156], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.66], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.676665901001159], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.7795508642674099], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.8999999999999999], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9252313761459622], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9461679220832828], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9589297606050049], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9652717311355451], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9760184157265074], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9999927797586251], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9999927797586251], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9999927797586251]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/\", \"https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum\", \"https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD\"]"}, {"question": "Will Bitcoin's price be above $27000 on June 30th?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-bitcoins-price-be-above-27000", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves on June 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the BTC/BUSD spot market.\nhttps://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/\nhttps://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin\nhttps://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_BUSD\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-01", "date_close": "2023-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-01\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.5739372710907459], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.7263541094063396], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.36551782575844255], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.43295508640990066], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.43295508640990066], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.43295508640990066], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.49383449524054124], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.49383449524054124], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.49383449524054124], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.2839428854064984], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.2909950765731075], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.38853045101715405], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.3405555893453391], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.3405555893453391], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.3405555893453391], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.16237221394530107], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.30524003887855483], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.18255852903147152], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2010162121206912], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2010162121206912], [\"2023-06-16\", 0.2010162121206912], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.6633323026859648], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7080119324124482], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.72], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7478385347624806], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7600000000000002], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.7747701328217189], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.8591713823876673], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.862135763984723], [\"2023-06-25\", 0.8750817841232169], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.8960842358807022], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.9422176829169774], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.95], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.9509018305372036], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.9593915474726683], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.9658254667634807], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9999908157641864], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9999908157641864], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.9999908157641864]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/\", \"https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_BUSD\"]"}, {"question": "Will Ethereum's price be above $2200 on June 30th?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-ethereums-price-be-above-2200-7f16de0db24b", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves on June 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the ETH/BUSD spot market.\nhttps://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/\nhttps://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum\nhttps://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-01", "date_close": "2023-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-01\", 0.23584905660377364], [\"2023-06-03\", 0.20774706480539887], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.09140485255964506], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.00797539614422957], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.01188314081598951], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.009399456337528356], [\"2023-07-01\", 1.7524708832696898e-05]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/\", \"https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum\", \"https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD\"]"}, {"question": "Will Ethereum's price be above $2000 on June 30th?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-ethereums-price-be-above-2000-7418821c0eca", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves on June 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the ETH/BUSD spot market.\nhttps://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/\nhttps://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum\nhttps://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-01", "date_close": "2023-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-01\", 0.3717472118959108], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.15898251192368837], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.21691973969631237], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.28721569472889946], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.28721569472889946], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.28721569472889946], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.10149540499504424], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.07255275697753574], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.09], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.031202759887876668], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.11380287312901977], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.20141226371043153], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.22], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.2927930591562255], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.09966199387414254], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.03492329154163796], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.09379859247841553], [\"2023-07-01\", 3.510541763921486e-05], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.023891915465635086]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/\", \"https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum\", \"https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Wagner group stop operating in Ukraine by the end of Jul 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-wagner-group-stop-operatin-ad2bc1b87277", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "YES = if multiple reliable sources confirm that the Wagner group has ceased its operations in Ukraine entirely. Temporary halts to recuperate will not count.\n\nThe current consensus seems to be that Wagner Group are not involved in combat operations in Ukraine.\n\nBased on the earlier survey, I will wait for a month after market close to resolve this. But as it stands (which could change), the market will very likely resolve YES. However, if Wagner Group resumes operations in Ukraine before resolution, then this market will resolve NO (as the halt in operation would be deemed temporary).\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-08", "date_close": "2023-08-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-04\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.4817485483661772], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.4817485483661772], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.4817485483661772], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.48265683910280194], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.4931343304084274], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.5030673237002554], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.5134321491772781], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.5198107989808604], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.5199999999999998], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.5299999999999999], [\"2023-07-04\", 0.5299999999999999], [\"2023-07-04\", 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market.\nhttps://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/\nhttps://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum\nhttps://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-01", "date_close": "2023-07-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-01\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-06-05\", 0.23584905660377373], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.3634077334171646], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.3634077334171646], [\"2023-06-06\", 0.3634077334171646], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.15627957279978383], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.1900000000000001], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.01582084264379763], [\"2023-06-15\", 0.08072334810797209], [\"2023-06-22\", 0.24588167320641166], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-06-23\", 0.34016689043949394], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.240955710673645], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-06-26\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-06-28\", 0.15530241300557118], [\"2023-07-01\", 8.060448342362387e-06]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/\", \"https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum\", \"https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD\"]"}, {"question": "Will the main LK-99 market reach 6k traders in 2023", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-the-main-lk99-market-reach-6k", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "It's sitting at 4k today, August 1\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-12-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-02\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.81], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.8681610036946354], [\"2023-08-02\", 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0.9985398378400361], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.9985398378400361], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.9985398378400361]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre\"]"}, {"question": "Will the S&P 500 increase in September 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-septemb", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Will the S&P 500 close at 4507.66 or higher on 2023-09-29 (4288.05)?\n\nSee also: Will the S&P 500 increase by 1% or more in September 2023?\nNO\n\u200c\nWill the S&P 500 increase in Q3 2023?\nNO\n\u200c\n\nS&P 500 close level from January to September 2023\n4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, 4288.05\nhttps://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-04", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", 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"data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the strike.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WGA (WGAW: https://www.wga.org/; WGAE: https://www.wgaeast.org/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-09-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.337837837837838], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.3742973276576875], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.31501225230971636], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.5106079543537579], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.6745484098940835], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.6899999999999998], 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0.6757603163723461], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6800334092534303], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6870549169972294], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6885890538188619], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6977588405842282], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6992940585305635], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.7084653669326465], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.5717599873679917], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6416968075260913], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6930932040313276], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.7597554111616318], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8279433178040949], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8561656346796074], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8818093725485308], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8818093725485308], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8818093725485308], 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0.9810333677519968], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9877369896519664], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9877810279952793], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9887837222548197], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9901674175346498], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9910574282552045], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9948249453998264], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9967361999748057], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9981770897678395], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9994823088686304], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9995517115524867]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will destiny reach 701k subscribers in August?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Agh/will-destiny-reach-701k-subscribers", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny\n\nrelated markets:\nWill destiny reach 750k subscribers by the end of August?\nNO\n\u200c\nWill Destiny's YouTube channel reach 725k subscribers by the end of August?\nNO\n\u200c\nWill destiny reach 706k subscribers in August?\nNO\n\u200c\nWill destiny reach 703k subscribers in August?\nNO\n\u200c\nWill destiny reach 702k subscribers in August?\nNO\n\u200c\nWill destiny reach 701k subscribers in August?\nNO\n\u200c\nWill destiny reach 700k subscribers in August?\nYES\n\u200c\nWill destiny reach 696k subscribers in August?\nYES\n\u200c\nHow many subscribers will Destiny have by the end of August? \ud83d\udcc8\n\n\u200c\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-19", "date_close": "2023-09-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-19\", 0.38075804441593764], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.4787722704100328], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.52], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5291015257110565], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5307293767547909], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.3413081322591608], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.24651539060999103], 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0.7252759354514035], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8569452023676676], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8569452023676676], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8621344462972537], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8642910343298074], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8650666367264469], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8711702122356411], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8730408832349347], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8730408832349347], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8730408832349347], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8782970235129332], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8842980176164419], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8986364578582252], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9033959436274632], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.981745015712439], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9839004445410674], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9866160842470981], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9869461972358213]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Starfield' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-starfield-be-nominated-for-gam-7ddd003082a7", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "If 'Starfield' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Starfield' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-11-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.6528218905841174], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.6609549549588808], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7297635898013668], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7315730867671343], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7576973163096501], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7600000000000002], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7600000000000002], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7600000000000002], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7744920847040685], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.8002076586419801], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.8021189180127716], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.79], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7982309103431896], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8251298028881499], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.7715088944943096], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.7899999999999998], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.7899999999999998], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.7899999999999998], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.81], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8154623658364921], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8448099832849333], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8379442329779532], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8416957266379862], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8453039727707863], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8607261986576121], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8737161278864579], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8761224422879876], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.8792346440855922], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.8736870318277123], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8927512743644305], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.8967672843259047], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.8224336655487737], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.8536786817570531], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.8536786817570531], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.8536786817570531], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8632806832141562], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8738365606341789], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.8747524144041786], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8669853623943291], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.8807890191942503], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.8716362246228746], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.8766566865588324], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.8783856729327751], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.8783856729327751], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.8783856729327751], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.8688962831833105], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.8559795585516402], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.8559795585516402], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.8559795585516402], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.8651269873432706], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.8651269873432706], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.8651269873432706], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.8671077207408643], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.8598190625211575], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.8598190625211575], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.8598190625211575], [\"2023-11-13\", 3.6215003096813704e-06], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.00882680760412539], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.009157949396723682], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.009192209517852544], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.01042701115729486], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.016424316033722294], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.016424316033722294], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.016424316033722294], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.021612044354852335], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.09013950512776589], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.09013950512776589], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.09013950512776589], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.11012008309965617], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.11012008309965617], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.11012008309965617], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.14002302769542097], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.14002302769542097], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.14002302769542097], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.18847779058822564], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.21143843237711832], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.2199926900381868], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.28003042198752376], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.28003042198752376], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.28003042198752376], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.3686409712642952], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.4686703302835969], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.46999999999999964], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.4804683860133623], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.5378431366643962], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6532045711499083], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.8329277126544969]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Cruise relaunch driverless taxis in San Francisco by Dec 31 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-cruise-relaunch-driverless-tax", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "On Oct 24, 2023 the California DMV announced they had suspended Cruise\u2019s driverless taxis in SF, citing safety concerns (see https://x.com/Cruise/status/1716877217995894934?s=20).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cruise relaunches its driverless taxi operations in San Francisco by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nA \u201crelaunch\u201d requires Cruise to resume driverless operations in San Francisco, and does not include mere tests and demonstrations.\n\nThe resolution source will be information from Cruise, in addition to credible media reporting.", "date_begin": "2023-11-02", "date_close": "2023-12-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-02\", 0.14792899408284024], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.17123287671232876], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.19459188893740936], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.2000000000000001], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.2099999999999998], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.23404857181069694], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.18228130851221325], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.1727763342300308], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.16491387208431393], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.05237105638760683], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.055026352878929936], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.07999999999999986], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.07999999999999986], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.07999999999999986], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.05237105638760683], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.058813657581531134], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.060000000000000026], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.060000000000000026], [\"2023-11-18\", 0.060000000000000026], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.05625616955803094], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.05773380639567714], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.07327353986555898], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.08303535891634704], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.058984194398657326], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.060000000000000046], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.04370542115720027], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.04370542115720027], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.04370542115720027], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.049854680469434184], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.05000000000000005], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.05000000000000005], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.05000000000000005], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.050000000000000065], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.035636840764852996], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.03571592734851527], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.03571592734851527], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.03571592734851527], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.03571592734851527], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.04000000000000005], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.034154874565539874], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.03250619155837583], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.031039657298611734], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.016917235175477358], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.01681966862268546], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.00024068423244174564]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Oct 15?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-kevin-mccarthy-remain-speaker", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-10-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.7631210091885999], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.83], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8465314325484466], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8560749296423739], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8640690937294827], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8843735628690896], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8868778280542986], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8901804722646619], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.8757131202481431], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.8960569346938247], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.8992037947262265], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.8854539216724003], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.8962571997593617], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8984232713110668], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.8721645420548555], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.879183771324053], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.872576834930526], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.8096155807856962], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.8096155807856962], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.8096155807856962], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6243155590889646], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.66], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.78079461188117], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.79], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8265629325793343], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.6900000000000002], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.6900000000000002], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.6900000000000002], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.7020814947134233], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.72], 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0.7759016112204961], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7759016112204961], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7759016112204961], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7771919302360153], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7813134384564866], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7827963482288641], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7870499591422033], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7870499591422033], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7870499591422033], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7883981748305194], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7883981748305194], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7883981748305194], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7886951628908278], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7907246625558902], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7970208026382647], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7989902504571328], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7994762671056124], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7994762671056124], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7994762671056124], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8025968216117841], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8038356425838499], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8038403375183679], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8099999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8122227440257342], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.81449646371482], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.81449646371482], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.81449646371482], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8151831672497856], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8170839901684782], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8170839901684782], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8170839901684782], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.822867515859774], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8241222633501969], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8256156366451894], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8263188078867529], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8263188078867529], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8263188078867529], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8309728814116749], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8333636147663138], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8366448729711479], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8378733070936226], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.839423494091258], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.839423494091258], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.839423494091258], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8499999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8499999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8499999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8619164781676589], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.863618827692448], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8695176688082144], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8744274325479396]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-super-mario-bros-wonder-be-nom", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "If 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.", "date_begin": "2023-10-25", "date_close": "2023-11-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-25\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6647860548427483], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7143048129233754], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.779259170400187], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.8564245871525923], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8214150158744072], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8214150158744072], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8214150158744072], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.8312788221280139], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.8502279103036778], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.8145102108963146], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.84], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.84], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.84], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.8515933537483216], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.8960860308128079], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.8393718459405402], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.8582894766330718], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.6468456777053372], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.8387580638207127], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.8897661359917589], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9184565844313127], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9300000000000002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9300000000000002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9300000000000002], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9828799825269869], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.984290432886914], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9843300321551997], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.9999062431231326]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Mahmoud Abbas be President of the State of Palestine until the end of 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-mahmoud-abbas-be-president-of", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Mahmoud Abbas remains in power as the President of the State of Palestine and the Palestinian National Authority until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023. \"In power\" is defined as Abbas still officially holding the office of the President of Palestine, as confirmed by reliable sources such as verified news outlets or official Palestinian government statements. If Abbas is no longer holding the office for any reason, including death, resignation, or removal, by the stated date, the market will resolve to \"No\". If Abbas departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.", "date_begin": "2023-10-11", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.85207100591716], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.9057492931196984], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.4031002380305352], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.46000000000000013], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.5600699952726865], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.6299999999999998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6078169608047154], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6881262082648808], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.701110678269161], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7592448736561449], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7606129417242244], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.5555220156915425], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.8545290609370736], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.678672993675628], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6826844100087588], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7000000000000002], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7175099794831425], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7389495038606971], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7538223853663046], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7650494097142433], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7574386207623481], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6392250902592124], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6600000000000003], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6600000000000003], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6600000000000003], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6877780985135111], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7264655416994882], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7331054881734937], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7366545185867235], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7962923020954725], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7997585156887363], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.8046389746574585], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.8023146890361245], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.8464466476567446], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8073819889103324], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8237031990344224], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8243577508514468], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8325747510999247], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8338068314784377], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8358683654806937], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8364509981181817], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8364509981181817], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8432369923905612], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8472418400905448], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8508067329572313], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.86], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.8685133689391695], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8902993068167434], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.8601422459058381], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.8655688869143348], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.8603924079859474], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.8833855486405703], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.9006659397269872], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9140325486339423], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9812161925004688], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9997576808397161]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Lies of P' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-lies-of-p-be-nominated-for-gam", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "If 'Lies of P' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Lies of P' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.", "date_begin": "2023-10-25", "date_close": "2023-11-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-25\", 0.43348523336307593], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6099794248557486], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7191011235955056], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.3289272534171167], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.30454291517872367], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.28016004415353096], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.2583180030604436], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.12894722775972178], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.20000000000000007], [\"2023-11-13\", 1.3566653509526706e-05], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.013356640890181326]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Dave the Diver' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-dave-the-diver-be-nominated-fo", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "If 'Dave the Diver' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Dave the Diver' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.", "date_begin": "2023-10-25", "date_close": "2023-11-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-25\", 0.29704823983962086], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.3289386570597157], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.328938657059716], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.2787854708907293], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.33638504889812754], [\"2023-11-13\", 1.9202870989350644e-05], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.016946969637827096]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the room temp superconductor paper replicate in 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-room-temp-superconductor-p", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Preprint here:\nhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008\n\nCompanion paper here with description of synthesis:\nhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037\n\nResolves the same as\u00a0https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the results of the paper titled \"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) are replicated at least two times by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of these replications.\n\nIf there is ambiguity as to whether replications under consideration for the resolution of this market are credible, this may remain open until July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, to allow for the publication of any replication results in a reputable journal. One such publication will be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". If no such paper is published by this delayed resolution time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-26", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-02\", 0.26281966509772847], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.27029518716167494], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.27200039396465425], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2892682202967151], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29337285354540926], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29337285354540926], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29337285354540926], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.29502870589070124], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.295261208378986], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.30000000000000016], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.30000000000000016], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.3050049465009957], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.30963217214432287], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.30963217214432287], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.30963217214432287], [\"2023-08-02\", 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If the nominees are announced and 'Sea of Stars' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.", "date_begin": "2023-10-25", "date_close": "2023-11-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-25\", 0.4065607201481291], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4898332506050139], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36503647452520993], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.32874029414195], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.2826804801995584], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.2999999999999998], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.38999999999999985], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.38999999999999985], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.38999999999999985], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.4937058137348028], [\"2023-11-13\", 8.931664440297376e-06], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.016952896008717456], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.017067594717897216], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.02118754440949748], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.021657637616649555], 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October 29, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-13\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.5792416087306511], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.5820639527197371], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.5820639527197371], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.5820639527197371], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.6943695430669159], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.6179655628694457], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7299999999999999], 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Success means (1) the former leader is striped of their position, (2) a significant portion of the military sides with the coup or remains neutral, (3) a transitional leader is named, (4) and the coup persists for at least one week. The coup in Niger is excluded.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-09-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-02\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.43000000000000005], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.4299999999999995], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.4517258617219382], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.48818083686630986], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5325641657678436], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5328603814659784], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5454332770604782], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5456877851684637], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5499999999999999], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.55], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.5738711588711947], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-03\", 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See, for example, here: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/mysterious-pneumonia-outbreak-china-hospitals-sick-children-b1122117.html\n\nThi sounds worringly similar to Covid (but also dissimilar in some ways). I wonder if this will be a global phenomenon.\n\nAs of December 31st 2023, will this mystery pneumonia spread beyond China in a significant way? I will resolve this question as yes if more than 1000 confirmed or highly likely confirmed cases exist (or have existed between now and then) outside of China on the resolution day.\n\nEDIT from Dec 5 for clarification, as requested in the comments:\n\nThis market specifically concerns a mysterious pathogen, like covid would have been in its early days. This market does not concern existing viruses such as RSV, because that is hardly mysterious.\n\nI understand that the \"mysterious\" pathogen may be a mutation of an existing pathogen (like covid was). This obviously counts, if there has been a substantial mutation (like covid was). Minor mutations (like the constant minor changes to the seasonal flu) dont count. For example, let's assume that the \"mystery pneumonia\" is an RSV outbreak. That would not count, unless it turns out to be a novel Super-RSV with substantially higher mortality/infectiousness/whatever,\n\nAlso, this question pertains to the specific mystery pneumonia observed in China, wherever it may be from. Only this one counts. If this pathogen is originally from a different country and spreads from there, it counts because its still the pathogen that this question is about. If it turns out that there is a second mystery pneumonia that has nothing to do with the current outbreak in China but still spreads globally, it does not count (because this question is about the present outbreak in China).\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-22", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Healthcare & Biology", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-22\", 0.5344418052256532], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.21279812551295768], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.2143605062781386], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.22771373027880212], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.25205309287205685], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.279310798852176], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.29], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.2970352532690088], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.3076169433216991], [\"2023-11-23\", 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true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Will the S&P 500 close at 4552.7366 or higher on 2023-09-29 (4288.05)?\n\nSee also: Will the S&P 500 increase in September 2023?\nNO\n\u200c\nWill the S&P 500 increase in Q3 2023?\nNO\n\u200c\n\nS&P 500 close level from January to September 2023\n4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, 4288.05\nhttps://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-04", "date_close": "2023-09-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-04\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.4338055759641188], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.45843125514484356], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.45843125514484356], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.4616068839754865], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.3793510806759373], [\"2023-09-06\", 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"[\"https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices\"]"}, {"question": "Will Tai Tuivasa beat Alexander Volkov at UFC 293?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-tai-tuivasa-beat-alexander-vol", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia.\n\nIf Tai Tuivasa wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Alexander Volkov wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-09-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.67], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.7433336517759492], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5523230973991279], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.7021870570255637], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6099999999999997], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.622595777732471], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6292036949449763], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5530225729337961], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5530806575962297], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.15433171613877827], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.28753544973018724], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.29999999999999977], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.4561622584759812], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.5100000000000002], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.5100000000000002], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.5100000000000002], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.37000000000000016], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.37000000000000016], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.37000000000000016], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.4020669484856603], 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{"question": "Will Bitcoin reach $40k before the end of November?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MrLuke255/will-bitcoin-reach-40k-before-the-e", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Based on https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-24", "date_close": "2023-11-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-03\", 0.15710288799780614], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.16818644965817847], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.17840153292618924], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.1800000000000001], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.1800000000000001], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.1800000000000001], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.18055364360307966], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.19440950844552624], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.1962705075160504], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.19999999999999993], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.19999999999999993], [\"2023-11-03\", 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The hostages may be from any country and the deal can be brokered by any entity. A \"successful deal\" is defined as an agreement that results in the release of one or more hostages currently held by Hamas. The deal must be verifiable through credible reporting or the respective governments of the hostages. If no such deal is brokered by the resolution date, the market will resolve to \"No\". If a deal is brokered before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-11", "date_close": "2023-10-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.3603287017076545], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.3915298251008319], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.40958355317728756], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.40999999999999975], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4271744491763527], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.43000000000000005], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.45776566352702835], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5163890381515316], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.37656680229575223], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.38748538916004205], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6073100507592991], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6627689330890228], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7200000000000002], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7289390104864653], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7341081192361181], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7646839854207084], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7897412149816075], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7897412149816075], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7897999859787761], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7948058835166769], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8248795338479964], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8349669664970353], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.860493086837938], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8700000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8707465423498634], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8921053071378916], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8936123882556575], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8939586209669114], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8992549239852197], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9000000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9030050057613779], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9088190188384897], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9141510350715099], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9198325648598502], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9255967918180171], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9417926162152056], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9469418562212888], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9548093735748447], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9555419799007419], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9559329930609424], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9565386430017575], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9565386430017576], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9620370901504247], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.96313597029166], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9640274019565938], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9694168758472156], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9694168758472156], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9694168758472156], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9694168758472156], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9852495015057541], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9998654504499913]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the Writers Guild of America strike resolve before the end of 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DocTobogganMD/will-the-writers-guild-of-america-s", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The WGA has been on strike since May 2nd 2023. One of the main focus points in the labor dispute is the residuals from streaming media; the WGA claims that AMPTP's share of such residuals has cut much of the writers' average incomes compared to a decade ago. Writers also wanted artificial intelligence, such as ChatGPT, to be used only as a tool that can help with research or facilitate script ideas and not as a tool to replace them.\n\nThe longest strike in WGA history was 154 days occurring in 1988 and if the current strike extended into 2024 it would last at least 244 days.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-20", "date_close": "2023-10-05", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-20\", 0.3285517388638734], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.4599999999999998], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.4599999999999998], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.4599999999999998], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.47274532344901427], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5163890381515316], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5248475889493625], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5960312175500626], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5973503486111279], [\"2023-08-20\", 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[\"2023-08-21\", 0.6503401088572656], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.6503401088572656], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.6503401088572656], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.6953466913669191], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.7144218697164971], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.6574391552302521], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.6899999999999996], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.6991572129076405], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.7168300829832179], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.7182606124907179], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.719680464410121], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.724226362879575], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.7607474892390276], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.703585343453469], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.7243261088710145], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7281016694266504], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7353609264398873], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7301989118030608], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7336609324907478], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.7353226027693764], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7385169881046478], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.7475505297375831], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.7486152660059804], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.751427941732029], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.7527844479715969], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.744594872965675], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.7473502078033413], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7601815891313732], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.7999505006065464], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.8099999999999999], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.811657671636325], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8281619869000163], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9150444477878638], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9192899696633838], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9478228837893814], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9534493834753223], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9634468158460865], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9641925724632273], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9642481187986313], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9647505396196692], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.96484959967304], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9765045698546513], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9719156709978797], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9775339875050835], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9796187442749525], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9829677599223918], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9853650138013932], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9873192528304205], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9888676670246624], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9888900390746086], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9900055936010315], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9895825278883899], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.9895837411924598], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.989584954254171], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.97], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.97], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.97], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.9700741156283531], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.9845232047256601], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.9871417751268136], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.9876686370234583], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.9882548016615698], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.982713550537801], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9827855700037359], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9827855700037359], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9827855700037359], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9827855700037359], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9876086002029243], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9877701706972937], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9877701706972937], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9877701706972937], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9909775891882552], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9958778541127364], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.9958785689987678], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.9958762531705296], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.9969211676772354], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.998687049881769]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Israel Adesanya beat Sean Strickland at UFC 293?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-israel-adesanya-beat-sean-stri", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia.\n\nIf Israel Adesanya wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Sean Strickland wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-09-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.7641509433962262], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.7641509433962264], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.7847478191261671], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7867396986376309], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.799877178415949], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.610133030875942], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.7610942283581581], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.77], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.7930626869909709], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.5749877263822045], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.66], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.66], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.66], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.7490372788456567], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.6751610538009051], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.7], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.7063738690470708], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.7373964924324162], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.567265305559272], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.69], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.8971321263573302], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7013342229175897], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7221608955389717], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7400000000000002], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.767028350966734], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7875947258411676], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7952353435764048], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.8049646015143358], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.8191073000762354], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.8225704489167777], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.8340130199623216], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.6277112226959802], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7163340157360932], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7406693148691337], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7908327234493627], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.8053024365738868], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.8108993363603115], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7422558645536741], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7599999999999998], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7784582087789395], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7868751336523208], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7985184848383384], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.8114140404590715], [\"2023-09-10\", 3.2874334242976632e-06], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.001956476585020268], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0057488673059933], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.007069076072208505], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.01230829911219252], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.019875571580239115], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.035505136797135205], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.08640786073026376], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.10000000000000002], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.10000000000000002], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.10000000000000002], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.15456019433328325], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.18883306673399367], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.2087655717829148], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.26984829805485133], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.2896359943739542], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3588354436797338], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3735615901286796], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.41253039608221675], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.42086958620974374], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.42086958620974374], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.42086958620974374], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4227427565564754], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4436024610888418], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4436024610888418], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4436024610888418], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.46121575079341365], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4800000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4800000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4800000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.4857169822300194], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5205587433941682], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5705505220175028], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5839573922880829], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5978800636276161], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.61], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.61], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.61], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6266340538101938], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6266340538101938], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6266340538101938], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6452341914444562], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6600000000000004], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.661966958641101], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.661966958641101], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.661966958641101], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.66325695513328], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.68], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6881614097146679], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6923553812881993], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6999999999999997], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6999999999999997], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6999999999999997], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.713024132908939], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7400000000000003], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7508851640525852], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7595953546760014], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7604786411446495], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7604786411446495], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.790678711452046], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8030890789019909], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8093664230551163], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8109334804968894], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8178265680831063], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8210218772859439], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8278602615468147], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8323392183401328], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8937015314420624]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "September 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $30,000?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/september-2023-will-bitcoin-hit-300", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "If in September 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-01", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-01\", 0.24839617077282103], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.26], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.2701143546998549], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.42893420756985906], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.4367592840995731], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.4799999999999999], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.4799999999999999], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.4799999999999999], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.48765620237732393], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5126483900573192], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5375461307631321], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5839021524847658], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.603418473937529], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6100000000000002], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6100000000000002], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6100000000000002], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6327148740172593], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6487996636660331], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6515609328656335], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.6812460152683057], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.7191011235955056], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.05479458914000464], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.1000000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.13999999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.13999999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.13999999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.15396480881686486], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.16982275196462862], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.17], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.17843882857471852], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.17930235069063544], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.1799999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.1799999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.1799999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.18330648245608278], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.18896789677680387], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.19000000000000003], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.19000000000000006], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.19000000000000006], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.19000000000000006], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.19000000000000006], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.20444532771097462], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.20444532771097462], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.20447506774573132], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.21459633222519983], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.2371370667827342], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.24917707286935387], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.26063873108250935], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.28], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.28], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.28], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.28699840255562487], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.2876924818424161], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.29000000000000015], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.29000000000000015], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.29000000000000015], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.2999999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.31000000000000016], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.31000000000000016], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.31000000000000016], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3113389094332045], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3132686186132062], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3148097506674256], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3212453393794354], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3222303667633205], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.33056670456475645], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.34535452990787807], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3491688511235393], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3634200423648641], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.1691611837685718], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.17003919779008161], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.17003919779008161], [\"2023-09-03\", 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Democrat win the Kentucky gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gu", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Democrat wins the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 7, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the 2023 U.S. Gubernatorial election for Kentucky will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2023 election results.", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-11-08", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.5987157900462079], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.74], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.7793625140892109], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-09-15\", 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[\"2023-12-21\", 0.045188464352531515], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.04584085469040841], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.046398284067124936], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.04651607274031336], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.04658488341072693], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.049119279194613466], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.05608697164467043], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.05608697164467043], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.05608697164467043], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.05629394631220231], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.056991524777624855], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.06501002470641808], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.04730289278119154], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.04730289278119154], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.04730289278119154], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.05502705467698981], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.046608342035943724], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.047171739551950385], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.05253388859534012], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.05253388859534012], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.05253388859534012], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.052719178872736], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.05170535958581452], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.05154258297155606], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.02284327062363182], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.03443244309787598], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.03897815040992784], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.044643884889092586], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.011987290242893743], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.011987290242893743], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.011987290242893743], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.013911992644314749], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.02629776797326093], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.026393657698581454], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.01895650946651323], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.02192310958464767], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.022132990492354666], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.022136932982347125], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.022136932982347125], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.022136932982347125], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.022330711874135965], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.008533727412885671], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.00929300481989553]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will a new F-Zero game be released before 2030?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-a-new-fzero-game-be-released-b-49d17a23a474", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-Zero\n\nThere have been six mainline\u00a0F-Zero\u00a0games released, with the first released in 1990 and the most recent in 2004.\n\nIf a new\u00a0F-Zero\u00a0game, with \"F-Zero\" in the title, published and/or developed by Nintendo, is released before 1st January, 2030, in any timezone, this question will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.\n\nPorts/remakes/remasters will not count for the purposes of this market.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2023-09-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-12\", 0.3253513794898492], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.4444539702679997], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.5280445111570192], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.5791692603747075], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8377755345767784], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8450287617807548], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8799999999999999], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.8919626308397481], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.9014594021335609], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.7858386695324581], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.81], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.81], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.81], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.8234642776771186], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.9226910567953541], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.9987002960705692], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.999919810494924]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-Zero\"]"}, {"question": "Will President Biden travel to Israel in October of 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/OldTerry/will-president-biden-travel-to-isra", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market resolves YES upon reliable media* and/or official White House reports that President Biden was in Israel (or Israeli Occupied Territories) at any point between the launch of this market and 11:59 pm (23:59) local Israeli time (IST) on October 31st, 2023.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve NO.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a Biden visit to an Israeli embassy or consulate will NOT cause the market to resolve YES.\n\n*Reliable Media Souces For This Market = BBC News, NYTimes, CNN, Fox News, AP, Reuters, Haaretz, Times of Israel, WSJ\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.23234874156983995], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.24000000000000002], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.24373665124448207], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.24921260835207115], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2699999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.29225377695855864], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.39665050683120323], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4836109618484686], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5105568363960553], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5299999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5299999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5299999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5312164164383081], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5442556318764252], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5599999999999998], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5599999999999998], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5599999999999998], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5653966160773778], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5784852255937312], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5899999999999997], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6133228245558271], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6217451865543715], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6253825808970895], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6312544320553408], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6359289088411141], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6451779236902666], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6453022622566424], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6495692209211034], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6495692209211034], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6510757212543884], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6562214979226165], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6575453577710919], 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[\"2023-10-17\", 0.8999080749747326], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.8999080749747326], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.8999080749747326], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9014238615270517], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9019907777144905], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9031012690306327], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9031012690306327], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9031012690306327], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9038444334446393], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9061793130323091], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9061793130323091], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9061793130323091], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9067701420103258], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9081836860111312], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9083407274070907], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9083407274070907], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9083407274070907], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9089146150199338], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9089146150199338], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9089146150199338], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9101794419926981], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9111863749948557], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9137439763913083], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9153818112352263], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9153818112352263], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9153818112352263], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9181551140118737], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9216876289251849], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9250671969932168], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9250671969932168], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9250671969932168], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9302487981866961], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9316584479413309], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9340715859847882], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9354801010055415], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9354801010055415], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9354801010055415], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9355869014142658], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.935861913535636], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9362158387192906], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9369891077770681], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9376739853681939], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9376739853681939], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9376739853681939], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9385648919441509], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9389420122242166], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9389420122242166], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9389420122242166], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9390389662965785], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9393300556395192], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9394823765313551], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.941306077920517], 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0.9535303792440016], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9539876198963344], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9545034132314836], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9545034132314836], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9545034132314836], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9545319800816363], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.958510718856117], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9596980063829285], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9607842518499584], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.962472665727606], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.962472665727606], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.962472665727606], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9641839863280675], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9656272892235483], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9656272892235483], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9656272892235483], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9679040968859604], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9690989078067898], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9706962492567268], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9711212999228426], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9718308642873611], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9719392146619541], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9719392146619541], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9719392146619541], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9746353744606394], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9752922152819581], [\"2023-10-17\", 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"https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-the-national-champ", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "National Championship Game: Monday, January 8, 2024 - 6:30 PM CST\n", "date_begin": "2023-12-03", "date_close": "2024-01-08", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-03\", 0.4263301500682129], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.4708984742889434], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5053899720799852], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.41516667639896154], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.4023190269743295], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3684554384589883], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.41397998934917635], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.418411782578165], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.422819868086702], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.3508938191969924], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.44842959545622413], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.45002189481060034], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6779365444231019], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.7566935333409017], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.8099999999999999], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.8099999999999999], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.8099999999999999], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.8219653556933729], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9482205421349426], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9637003317631638], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9701320394309003], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9702448475950086], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9718634887678145], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9851594178543365], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9867055859851779], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9867345487010191], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9907718327202352], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.9934190536222998], 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"data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Cleveland Browns Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 15, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.2999999999999998], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.2999999999999998], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.2999999999999998], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.2999999999999998], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.27999999999999964], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2799999999999999], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.2799999999999996], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.2799999999999996], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.2699999999999999], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2600000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2600000000000001], 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0.9853053541409722], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9885480556943865], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9929215883576856], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9929215883576856], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9929215883576856], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9944809284763504], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9958515958500126], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.995886166108473], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9964982844008271], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9975388223439725], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9976463618420105], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9977273539365129], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9983615304148754], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9983875533513615], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9984235655334723], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9984295558290511], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9986732951799827], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9986779425497733], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9987778444470744], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9993218508519763], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9998364666310879]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 5 (Oct 5): Will the Washington Commanders beat the Chicago Bears?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-5-oct-5-will-the-washingto", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at FedExField at 17:15 PDT on October 5, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5291015257110565], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5912403214357996], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.7769199146193929], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8333151203663166], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8589495637888177], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 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0.08066452290654719], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.08074563384931968], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.08074563384931968], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.08074563384931968], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.08317380487310608], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.08359154554699558], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.08377098945216188], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.09423872160889651], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.09484092106393213], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.09687376122584743], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.09890194342761272], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.09999999999999996], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.11032882066908047], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.11217288124076771], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.11379447325331721], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.11379447325331721], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.11379447325331721], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.1146884728573213], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.12167732045581174], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.12167732045581174], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.12167732045581174], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.12999999999999998], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.14359018966884388], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.14498970626459493], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.14802160136288203], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.14802160136288203], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.14802160136288203], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.14904697277102225], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.15173060472479089], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.1532543837598728], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.1600477646029191], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.16991614432945884], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.17481508080732633], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.17608007912385057], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.19027991459910268], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.1945213630451187], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.19799790904749298], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.19799790904749298], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.19799790904749298], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.19967937858034845], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.2], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.20207422238873834], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.20207422238873834], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.20207422238873834], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.2027381893336727], 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0.44999999999999984], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.44999999999999984], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4637936302504719], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4637936302504719], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.4637936302504719], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.47000000000000003], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.47000000000000003], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.47000000000000003], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.47757919218994355], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.47757919218994355], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.47757919218994355], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.48620140200139844], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.48620140200139844], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.48620140200139844], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5004562639020729], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.532683778880976], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.532932792232142], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5352423272087156], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5606927488685385], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5606927488685385], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.5606927488685385], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.6709998688227053], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.7014534661806424], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.7014534661806424], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.7014534661806424], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.71]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Judge Tanya Chutkan recuse herself from the Jan. 6 case that involves Donald Trump?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/getby/will-judge-tanya-chutkan-recuse-her", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Market resolves as 'yes' if an official statement or report confirms Judge Tanya Chutkan's recusal from the case. The market will resolve by January 1, 2024.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-15", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-15\", 0.1655221988126823], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1655221988126823], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.1655221988126823], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.22284663625208842], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3106393722120522], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3162051173873903], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3173385239127038], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3173385239127038], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3173385239127038], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3173385239127038], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3173385239127038], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.38159469702723114], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.4619220283500874], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.48050799327469623], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.09881707455869548], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.09896927350654643], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.11078877176936641], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.12477050260710597], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.1412301541883387], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.1412301541883387], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.1412301541883387], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.1412301541883387], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.1412301541883387], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.1449430853362793], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.1655221988126823], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.1655221988126823], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.09842922925090565], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.10034700828617407], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.10056332765160793], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.10078140337075739], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.1040612604543291], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.09570143208618329], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.09769015938632522], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.10185586723555703], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.07899552713232073], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.07899552713232073], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.07899552713232073], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0945830209854575], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.0950497086599055], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09510558981549341], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09529421313906392], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09531090158902783], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.09531337753391678], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.07735436641866882], 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0.03250683628009911], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.03254436898611667], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.05514808864596495], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.06273143822785117], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.07586078142056664], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.07654723602425674], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.07899552713232073], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.07899552713232073], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.013444204135530413], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.013513047467897138], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.013529487534088286], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.014246046554439567], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.014322983902061442], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.016789804876366925], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.016814926209973706], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.01775860987424829], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.017867751519573795], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.01787191244970911], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.01799471929528783], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.013478245717530986], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.01663501670726238], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.017046374659396544], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.017349631398530265], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.017452717074112733], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.01745375671665521], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.01755823481222654], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.017624706279683933], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.017624706279683943], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.016362269319064572], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.016353169382357154], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.01690153119738263], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.017935459459583983], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.018264830963830227], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.018473846147530403], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.01838110051713052], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.018336256271846534], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.01947456724883543], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.019483680883361738], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.03810415147742899], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.039029711963748805], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.038954778157652616], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.03899211220776224], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.018539375623125492], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.018541577156087497], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.01864950184883498], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011356767795130087], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011357729045988356], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011404785604734773], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.014317915040747805]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $200 by Oct 31?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/deagol/will-apple-stock-aapl-hit-200-by-oc", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Last price: 2023-10-31 $170.77\n(will try to update major moves or every Friday after Nasdaq close)\n\nResolves YES if AAPL trades >= $200 during any regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) up to October 31, 2023, and NO if that hasn't happened by then.\n\nReference is publicly-quoted intraday high price, adjusted for any future stock splits. For example, if it splits 2:1 at $180 then quoted prices next day would be $90 but reference price for this market would be x2. Alternatively, I might update the title and resolution criteria to use the post-split price corresponding to the current $200, so would change from $200 to $100 in the 2:1 example (I'd appreciate suggestions in comments regarding these two alternatives, likely most relevant for longer-term markets).\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-19", "date_close": "2023-11-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-19\", 0.3711090972549471], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.41840506844940856], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.5515101753671376], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.5515101753671376], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.5515101753671376], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.5515101753671376], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.5515101753671376], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.5564229950319374], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.4445238997118717], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.47999999999999976], [\"2023-06-20\", 0.4956506996506424], [\"2023-06-21\", 0.44572171283537354], 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"https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-9-nov-2-will-the-pittsburg", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Acrisure Stadium at 17:15 PDT on November 2, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-11-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.4803996925441968], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.5743180272537214], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5743180272537208], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5743180272537208], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5743180272537208], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5743180272537208], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5743180272537208], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5743180272537208], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.53], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5499999999999999], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5599999999999995], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.5730263949738513], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.48], 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0.95], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9511009756496295], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9511009756496295], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9511009756496295], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9551518978270375], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9551518978270375], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9551518978270375], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.956428630662196], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.956428630662196], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9592496026346347], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9593761259836728], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.962950386600793], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9655418699822438], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9655418699822438], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9655418699822438], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9703922473506964], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9703922473506964], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9703922473506964], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9703922473506964], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.972233110034799], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.972233110034799], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.972233110034799], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9746240077658117], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9800000000000001], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9800000000000001], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9800000000000001], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9899216685501923], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9936202769868435], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9953742593975784], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9953742593975784], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9953742593975784], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9955184570641683], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9955184570641683], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9955184570641683], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9968318395034411], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9991697357789096], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9991697357789096], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9991697357789096], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9995293937648059], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.9998778748716491]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 3rd October than it closed on 2nd October?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-ac49090fb1bc", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 3rd October than it did on Monday 2nd October?\n\nThe market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.\n\nThe official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling \"FTSE 100\" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!\n\nSome longer term FTSE 100 markets:\nWill the UK's FTSE 100 end 2023 above 8,000?\nNO\n\u200c\nWill the UK's FTSE 100 end 2024 above 8,500?\n20%\n\u200c\nWill the UK's FTSE 100 end 2025 above 9,000?\n35%\n\u200c\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-10-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-03\", 7.932980233278414e-05], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0018032045866243293], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0025806173498677133], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0025806173498677133], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0025806173498677133], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.005708086049914381], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.005708086049914381], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.005708086049914381], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.006388909840769135], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.006781624964087335], 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0.19503727626724007], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20141564107867466], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20225951494164596], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.21000000000000013], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.21000000000000013], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.21000000000000013], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.22767825831490426], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.22875239468472033], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.23004260549659813], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2328291848016886], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2342560645180142], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2400000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2414106236331643], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.24999999999999994], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.24999999999999994], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.24999999999999994], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.25062612894643715], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.260311565791569], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.26135965047034515], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2644351349916021], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.26862349967156623], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.27000000000000024], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.27371468686438954], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.27522381281042874], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.28000000000000025], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2824652673747446], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.28736539843615555], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2883546530121708], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2900000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2900000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2900000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2940187886109417], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.29865018590028325], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3061515065645637], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3166918225716505], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3177569873142683], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3202604658518609], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.32129722639252867], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.33000000000000035], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.33789812764116106], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3441589886651824], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3461477596788547], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.36220008106266166], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3640006575974331], 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0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5000000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5000000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5000000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5017284603221036], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5021063917343929], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5021063917343929], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5021063917343929], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5021981586567372], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5099999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5099999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5099999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5099999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5099999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5099999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5108667537199282], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5199978169916641], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5264994117620097], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5264994117620097], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5264994117620097], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5422953753282931], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5422953753282931], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5422953753282931], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5422953753282931], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5442838544234576], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5599423704892073], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5835466378361787], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5886974887724914], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.592071448427084], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5973352337190455], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6000000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6017381858840742], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6075344660248017], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6190123388883779], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6296172589123926], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6373549315117798], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6623292187407546], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6685745778905846], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6764126705387608], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.792111633327319]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-open", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The \u201cDomestic Weekend\u201d tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 21 - July 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).\n\nIf there is no final data available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n", "date_begin": "2023-07-20", "date_close": "2023-07-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-20\", 0.1000000000000001], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.2559787073781805], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.19921526439777187], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.21217494471487341], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.22371968589549363], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.23175718309015195], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.24], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.25535381460022055], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.2637429967121325], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.2979702506081279], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.32102129597405843], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.3236372976620117], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.410707567477843], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.45], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.4938289127378518], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.49999999999999994], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.51], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5289225259916295], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.529259045353629], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.5970337689264005], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6000000000000002], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6189757877070939], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6231874333893964], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6250175975026327], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.63], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6349741826873416], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6351427874522818], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6542304620096671], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6595009761817757], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6689226167124798], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6695521041228922], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6826522510228572], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6868068501885648], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6954519355107167], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6954519355107167], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6954519355107167], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7026287105375691], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7054492407141792], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7070618969280504], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.714496434838851], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7185227982321926], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7225595991046251], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7255257591652226], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7259331469916843], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7304628318315943], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.743768893817174], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7645920139093884], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7077199974882723], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7112061012792845], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7125482390886747], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.73], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7426472036806724], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7535208615303113], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.76], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7644424436226707], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7932708840968592], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7942529575487111], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7965823338456399], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8021838144360823], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8109971106317712], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8174418128660967], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8190450590578235], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8203541297917297], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8210165997043103], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8221617189672026], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8221617189672026], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8221617189672026], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8227903937699825], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8239069004194441], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8239069004194441], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8239069004194441], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.829491854408543], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8375721726853713], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8399999999999997], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8399999999999997], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8399999999999997], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.84], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8416914323071293], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8416914323071293], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8416914323071293], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.85], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8577455403032167], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8712966560679851], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8719947011654179], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8740887335583808], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8766742966720741], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8839575081549707], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.8875755999525563], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9005222319673276], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.9073940037138255], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9041770217612377], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9122466115158737], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9177472240772939], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9310164069925828], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9346907269067642], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9380490361432893], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9399933583326274], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9427552691438125], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9499031115624006], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9499031115624006], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9499031115624006], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9514519790607142], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9529223575171831], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.954790988524002], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9565266417094029], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9587472501333849], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9624750091318945], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9626449723832252], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.965111888277391], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9668765210645627], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9742100412720821], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9768011224678818], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9777326909080685], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9816562304263919], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9823167951406531], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9827115012112887], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.9850091509656446], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9694705020083692], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9700223982585353], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9733479339973281], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9749856806096052], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9765939165819959], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9769002560488447], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9774322920921044], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9781282967867738], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9815411708396242], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9822558207268263], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9947693480787605], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9947693480787605], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9947693480787605], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9959707423954565], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9961656185862646], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9964012141557808], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9976424239299247], [\"2023-07-24\", 0.9987899678857886]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Lib Dem candidate win the seat?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-58d541c7bdd7", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:\n\nhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect\n\nThis should lead to an imminent by-election.\n\nWill the Liberal Democrat candidate win the seat?\n\nMid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - will the Conservative party candidate win the seat?\nNO\n\u200c\nMid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Labour Party candidate win the seat?\nYES\n\u200c\nMid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Lib Dem candidate win the seat?\nNO\n\u200c\nMid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - will anyone from outside the three main parties win the seat?\nNO\n\u200c\n\n* If there is no Lib Dem candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO.\n* If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A\n", "date_begin": "2023-06-09", "date_close": "2023-10-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-09\", 0.2998276897071213], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.3617960541190995], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.4219565978744191], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.44], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.4548075871725925], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.6104920932604966], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.8300545862164569], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.5543994088039852], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.5543994088039852], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.5543994088039852], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.6458810227222092], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.6952528346084584], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.6909813452585662], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.581059736482141], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5400000000000003], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5014740724189884], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5199999999999999], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.494607101712262], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.4014498449264588], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.40250907001159814], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.44481168348696104], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.35719697050905347], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.37999999999999984], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.3875254596900352], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.3907688083907405], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.3925812996939377], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.33268244310455425], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.35], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.3907688083907401], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.3907688083907401], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.34999999999999976], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.34999999999999976], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.34999999999999976], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.34999999999999976], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.34999999999999976], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.34999999999999976], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.34999999999999976], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.2624706873263994], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.29], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.2781990251408092], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3013208932759468], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.31], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.31], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.31], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.32509912601801777], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.32872063856482936], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.304287703498718], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.24206284338729064], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.24574277202490055], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.25427130723336644], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.2600000000000002], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.2699999999999999], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.2878312651830725], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.2878312651830725], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.2878312651830725], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.231034126588302], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.22], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2266754271821171], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2266754271821171], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2266754271821171], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.18330708303112153], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.24999999999999997], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4455074218890364], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.46999999999999975], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.46999999999999975], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.46999999999999975], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5349811831145903], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.15618622167483215], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.15620011675054718], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.16418010969370436], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.16697476271763925], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.17000000000000007], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.17000000000000007], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.17000000000000007], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.1871162431460873], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.20036486313874988], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.20036486313874988], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.20036486313874988], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2036241438553053], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2080400933331031], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.21000000000000008], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.21000000000000008], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.21000000000000008], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.24425645881594096], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.24425645881594096], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.24425645881594096], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2444699892232636], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.00036013637286124497], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.010837032739907878], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.011993314712119764], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.011993314712119764], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.011993314712119764], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.012326438949201393], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.012326438949201393], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.012326438949201393], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.038125793129922224], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.041016423794423384], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.041016423794423384], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.041016423794423384], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.043653205404468154], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.046272151501937094], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.04813181594039633], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.05158676422898785], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.05486244625838925], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.059207663226780866], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0641400050266058], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.06631308303209715], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.06631308303209715], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.06631308303209715], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.07229877439803663], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.07846982267802201], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.08671255845465382], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0899999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0899999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0899999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.09430274914954496], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.09642270234125105], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.09795249946233094], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10523466684099263], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10653301677145452], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10999999999999996], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10999999999999996], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10999999999999996], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.11265700517771336], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.11418379925455932], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12126663210793667], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.14000000000000015], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.14293115379126806], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16000000000000006]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect\"]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Cleveland Browns?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-8-oct-29-will-the-seattle", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Lumen Field at 13:05 PDT on October 29, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.5475113122171945], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.47459928782408445], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5525021279961712], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6736456813896524], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7299999999999998], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7299999999999998], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7299999999999998], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8014160892309856], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6427546819661095], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.66], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.66], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.66], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.6699999999999999], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.6943427231906383], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6042997072741801], [\"2023-10-25\", 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before 2024?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/yard/will-israeli-soldiers-perform-groun", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "For now it's seems that IDF ground operation is focused in north Gaza. All citizens are requested to move to the south. If a significant military force (more then 200 soldiers) will enter south Gaza, this question will be resolved as Yes. South Gaza is anything south of Deir al-Balah\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-06", "date_close": "2023-12-05", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-06\", 0.25556728835405856], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.4071408555881417], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.45999999999999985], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.4966555558041207], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.541121668661637], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.6263500857551738], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.42053879878453776], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.4392315883723724], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.48873446899233647], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5399999999999998], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA rescue is defined as a successful operation or negotiation that results in the release and safe return of an American hostage. The rescue operation or negotiation must be attributed to the U.S. and be verifiable through reliable sources, such as verified news outlets or official U.S. government statements.\n\nIf a rescue operation results in the return of at least one American hostage before the expiry date, the market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\".", "date_begin": "2023-10-11", "date_close": "2023-10-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-15\", 0.2218367984761376], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.23999999999999982], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.23999999999999982], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.23999999999999982], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.2430891489739371], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.2501306524524033], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.25277512828671966], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.2638546139075631], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.2707665281046382], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.2751210018477614], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.2784821022563961], 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A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-11-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-20\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5901639344262293], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6686310503859769], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6755783998618146], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6999999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6999999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7066616993466899], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.728024666924305], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7449101934845618], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7525870358777095], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.7945502943016381], 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A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on\u00a0the spirit of the question.\u00a0Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-13\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.6], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.6175008016296268], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.6406276632776943], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5558804173777635], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.7110100049491153], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5575197240744508], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5785662736672597], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5799999999999998], 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"question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Aaron Rodgers plays an NFL game between September 12, 2023 PM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"playing another NFL game\" means Aaron Rodgers is on the field through the completion of at least one down.", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-12-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.18554545610997883], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.22058708290226317], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.24179281410681613], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.250852841271523], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.42062449094091575], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.01634797988359473], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.01634797988359473], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.01634797988359473], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.018013133115122603], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.01916226769247302], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.03140590054434661], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.03148682972054457], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.03148682972054457], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.03148682972054457], 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0.030255626230153706], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.030255626230153706], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.0327086795113386], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.0332493202820608], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.04152220031736024], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.05071529596911832], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.05147637369557313], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.052078466434525815], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.052078466434525815], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.052078466434525815], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.07611497652372741], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.032426451974938625], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.032426451974938625], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.032426451974938625], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.032178533147302325], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0004189683308272369], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.005940289006877249], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.005940289006877249], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.005940289006877249]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Manchester United beat Luton during regular time on Sat, Nov 11, 2023? - Premier League", "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-manchester-united-beat-luton-d", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "\u26bd Manchester United vs Luton\n\ud83d\udcc5 Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 \u23f0 Start Time (UTC): 15:00\n\ud83c\udfc6 Competition: Premier League\n\ud83d\udd11 Market Resolution:\nThis market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n- Manchester United has more goals\nThis market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n- Both teams have an equal number of goals\n- Luton has more goals\n(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)\n\ud83d\udd50 Market Closing Time:\nThis market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.\n\ud83d\udd0e You can search for more match details on Google\n", "date_begin": "2023-11-07", "date_close": "2023-11-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": 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40.000,00$ and goes back down it will be resolved as YES)\n\n", "date_begin": "2023-10-24", "date_close": "2023-12-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-24\", 0.2367294697583635], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.24228381499219764], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.32183192458971993], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.3248472194016017], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.32608388163422397], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.36490436451883423], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.41265385315562647], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.43000000000000005], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2023-10-24\", 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December 4, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\nOne reason to bet on\u00a0this\u00a0market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on\u00a0the spirit of the question.\u00a0Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-05", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-04\", 0.7971342222812164], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.8088385121282035], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.8088385121282035], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.81], [\"2023-12-04\", 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A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\nOne reason to bet on\u00a0this\u00a0market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on\u00a0the spirit of the question.\u00a0Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8099999999999999], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8705849986103815], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.8705849986103815], 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"background": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-Zero\n\nThere have been six mainline F-Zero games released, with the first released in 1990 and the most recent in 2004.\n\nIf a new F-Zero game, with \"F-Zero\" in the title, published and/or developed by Nintendo, is released before 1st January, 2028, in any timezone, this question will resolve YES. 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0.9954144223858469], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.995470126710562]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "[M2500 subsidy] Will the announcement for the next World of Warcraft expansion include a new playable race?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Nikos/will-the-announcement-for-the-next", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Will there be a promise of a new playable race when the next WoW expansion is annoucened. This is just about the annoucement, if they fail to deliver on it when the expansion launches the market will still resolve yes. Allied races will count. Something like the dracthyr count (even if they only support one class). New very different customizations for existing races does not count, it has to be an entirely new race. If they do something ambiguous like getting rid of distinct races and it is a big hodgepodge you can customize anything from this market will resolve N/A.\n\nThis market will close a day after the annoucement is made. By annoucment I mean when they release details about new features are coming. If they just give us a name of the expansion that doesn't count and we'll keep waiting until they give us the big features coming. A new playable race is big enough that I expect it to be in the first wave of annoucment features, not burried in dev interviews that come out a week later.\n\nEdit:\nThe next expansion is rumoured to be annouced at Blizzcon which is Nov 3-4th. I've updated the close date to then as that is likely when we'll hear the asnwer. If no annoucement is made during the conference I'll move back the closing date.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-26", "date_close": "2023-11-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-26\", 0.7191011235955056], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.5256781022266981], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.58], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.5899999999999999], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.5899999999999999], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.5899999999999999], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.6123379597024289], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5864902793638249], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5881351678242973], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5269740442794908], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5310228859824921], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5416937506744784], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5440648821699724], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5498690220016792], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5500304044543185], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5517961286227728], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5521402129255601], [\"2023-09-10\", 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[\"2024-01-02\", 0.8004614598606331], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.806599295843561], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.81], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.81], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.81], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.8118770283750331], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.8129126690439933], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.8159666189406164], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.8159666189406164], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.8189543785742294]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the WGA strike end by Nov 15?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-wga-strike-end-by-nov-15", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the strike.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WGA (WGAW: https://www.wga.org/; WGAE: https://www.wgaeast.org/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-09-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.2162685742250815], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.6184947592012278], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.77], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.77], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.77], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7904357314506746], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8356650779895993], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8779809344374965], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.8434004036439599], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.8715192442581504], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8553517077379098], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.8496841429875845], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.8585721880965198], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9146805791734733], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9199999999999999], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9199999999999999], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9199999999999999], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9499999999999998], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9615665187003408], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9630441554955728], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9692287700785368], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9746158470352138], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9767763983661806], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9784623570844057], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9784623570844057], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9784623570844057], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9997445490736818]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 12 (Nov 26): Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Buffalo Bills?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-12-nov-26-will-the-philade", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Lincoln Financial Field at 1:25 PST on November 26, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-11-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-26\", 0.13000000000000006], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.13999999999999993], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.13999999999999993], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.13999999999999993], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1599999999999999], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1599999999999999], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1599999999999999], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1599999999999999], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.1630548630681719], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.16403971010462953], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.17000000000000007], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-11-26\", 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0.994144594139158], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9992417834845145], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9994286441136875], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9994339534465685], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.9998100518415851]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the WGA strike end by Dec 15?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-wga-strike-end-by-dec-15", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by December 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the strike.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WGA (WGAW:\u00a0https://www.wga.org/; WGAE:\u00a0https://www.wgaeast.org/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-09-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8410891383774474], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8837187347113244], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8995609636714083], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.9779362346931234], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9999683828283784]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Washington Commanders beat the Philadelphia Eagles?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-8-oct-29-will-the-washingt", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at FedExField at 10:00 PDT on October 29, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.35697060659699237], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.38000000000000017], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.34183753262025657], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.31420372785964207], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5657908481066022], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.2562674704185086], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.31344366216975184], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-10-19\", 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[\"2023-10-29\", 0.5879213672904138], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5994225565623404], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6001549018209663], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6026155870747529], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6056619755890984], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6072776840170331], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6072776840170331], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6072776840170331], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6120287528584473], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6184663943211698], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6239572517673736], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6239572517673736], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6239572517673736], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6249746438687463], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6249746438687463], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6249746438687463], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6323039130079268], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6323039130079268], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6323039130079268], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6493889307606517], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6572982571584916], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6592971076699268], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6630360555854677], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6653028653014424], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6673254281949933], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6673254281949934], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6699999999999999], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6734015059752556], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6815926848735678], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6815926848735678], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6815926848735678], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6898746430111087]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Carolina Panthers beat the Green Bay Packers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-16-dec-24-will-the-carolin", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Bank of America Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 24, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.3378378378378379], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.36999999999999994], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3816088090095184], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.22641510073497356], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3135552591502617], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.23628725235058554], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.23874995530573984], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.2500000000000001], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.2614623336946023], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.27292394265567044], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.2905275328837001], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.3928628211968143], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.25323109401936456], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.28700495358402744], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.31000000000000016], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.3230381570894079], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.33519543819557646], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.2948192568838067], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3030938501469759], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.31999999999999973], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.31999999999999995], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3714579384044565], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.0007566349842545797], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.003065629361865087], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.004437303469961958], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.006096358126965391], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.006997593454433981], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.006997593454433981], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.011517648014634346], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.01217547729741904], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.012751322633607738], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.01359193853492205], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.015304634145107177], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.015358845444548198], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.01606724238737621], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.017236216647395424], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.02476606269409491], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.024766062694094915], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.02522707930380294], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.027290826703491925], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.029886660185608177], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.03427704169178588], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.03430854865360487], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.03430854865360487], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.03430854865360487], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.03439704721472084], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.04000000000000004], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.04022150079452269], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.04587637320419343], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.04594458752234867], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.047738825774544726], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.047738825774544726], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.047738825774544726], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.04999999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.04999999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.04999999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.05000000000000002], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.05018667119903388], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.05018667119903388], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.05018667119903388], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.058461946920872684], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06209360225271779], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06422454889549989], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06514476341711008], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06514476341711008], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06514476341711008], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06999999999999995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07000000000000009], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07000000000000009], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07000000000000009], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07141802350737791], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07491822654103387], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.0756529318771081], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07718499841214646], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07718499841214646], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07718499841214646], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07794119698514912], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07909800461058104], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.079772069693148], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07999999999999993], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07999999999999993], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07999999999999993], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07999999999999993], 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0.20859191245644423], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.20859191245644423], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.20859191245644423], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2099999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2135858105283792], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.22000000000000006], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.22000000000000006], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.22000000000000006], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.22000000000000017], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.22000000000000017], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.22000000000000017], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.22000000000000017], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.22372622576115536], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2290506814773524], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.23633723275260518], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.23633723275260518], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.23633723275260518], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.23633723275260535], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.23633723275260535], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.23633723275260535], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.23810513413398712], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.24000000000000002], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.24336984033935716], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2440530856218709], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2500000000000002], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2500000000000003], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2600000000000002], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2600000000000002], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2600000000000002], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2674122338486435], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2674122338486435], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2674122338486435], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.26821075727677185], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.26999999999999985], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.26999999999999985], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.26999999999999985], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2700000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2700000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.27881035048684377], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.27881035048684377], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.27881035048684377], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2799999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2800000000000002], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2800000000000002], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2800000000000002], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2945527311950015], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2952672308273665], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3040451271097796], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3040451271097796], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3040451271097796], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3040451271097798], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3040451271097798], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3040451271097798], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.31986116415775356], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3234575026415128], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.32543231903294295], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.34770117286924573], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.34770117286924573], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.34770117286924573], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3493756597265665], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3599999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3599999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3599999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.36589525136250917], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.36589525136250917], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.36589525136250917], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3659732106489227], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3659732106489227], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3659732106489227], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3700000000000003], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3700000000000003], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3700000000000003], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37000000000000033], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37000000000000033], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37000000000000033], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3800000000000003], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.384063993611995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.384063993611995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.384063993611995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.38569517056582603], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.38999999999999974], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.38999999999999974], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.38999999999999974], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3899999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3899999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3899999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.39000000000000035], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.39000000000000035], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.39000000000000035], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4099999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4099999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4099999999999997]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - will the Conservative party candidate win the seat?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1c7db83e497", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:\n\nhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect\n\nThis should lead to an imminent by-election.\n\nWill the Conservative Party candidate win the seat?\n\nMid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - will the Conservative party candidate win the seat?\nNO\n\u200c\nMid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Labour Party candidate win the seat?\nYES\n\u200c\nMid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Lib Dem candidate win the seat?\nNO\n\u200c\nMid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - will anyone from outside the three main parties win the seat?\nNO\n\u200c\n\n* If there is no Conservative Party candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO.\n* If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-06-09", "date_close": "2023-10-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-09\", 0.3617960541190995], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.413031572553501], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.44], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.475909540520601], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.45498147228406965], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.3221270703846409], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.20655909013339235], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.21018009029096513], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.14153517092447193], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.14920064285884327], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.16999999999999996], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.13155865751609758], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.18], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.18], 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"BINARY", "background": "All goals scored count, for club or country in any match played October 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-10-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-02\", 0.1306096860143148], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.15447462342075138], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.16999999999999993], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.18999999999999997], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.20999999999999996], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.22999999999999993], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.22999999999999995], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.22999999999999995], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.22999999999999995], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.2629504989586131], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17196561823209858], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.17890697331732938], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.19379893576806756], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.20367497435934004], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.2200000000000001], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.2200000000000001], [\"2023-10-04\", 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0.0019485472734396513], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.00999989911857458], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.010160013923861781]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Sweden beat the United States at the Women's World Cup?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/UniversalFC/will-sweden-beat-the-united-sates-a", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-08-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-02\", 0.2478682499023114], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.25262732417138256], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.28], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.30207829869502195], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.33697415244577195], [\"2023-08-02\", 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0.9904068275137596], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9909992455850142], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9909992455850142], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9909992455850142], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9962526694243539], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9963938992405829], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9980896439825968], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9983452242001858], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.998655149335491], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.998655149335491], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.998655149335491]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be one of the top 5 highest rated games of all time on OpenCritic at the end of 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-baldurs-gate-3-still-be-one-of", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "At the time of market creation, Baldur's Gate 3 was listed as the highest scoring game of all time on OpenCritic:\n\nhttps://opencritic.com/browse/all\n\nIf it is still one of the top 5 highest rated games on OpenCritic (it must be ranked in the top 5 on the linked list) at the end of 2023 in any timezone, this question will resolve YES.\n", "date_begin": "2023-08-14", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-14\", 0.5453754813010303], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.702041598215278], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7268769365139672], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.74], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7407639723102879], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7474762123248901], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7643780461373849], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7667370144668758], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7674992898412205], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7781881005533714], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7781881005533715], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7825326619985213], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7830802603036877], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7968790744831632], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8207098308815137], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8460523758670419], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.7842158617233033], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.796502158035765], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.7997357946231874], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8043884575632047], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8440769791900683], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8660595488691086], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8860556002410558], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8883103011292423], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.9], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.9], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.9], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.8878888360139914], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.8963585651453377], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.7544593291690731], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.7755736275518725], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.7837369863676961], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.7885043031699039], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.7932637730826109], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.7977349545154141], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8018627277897775], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8231143350958131], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8302675787465009], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8329900704258126], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8347102196438704], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8536633573275806], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8536633573275807], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.86], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8664173133568375], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8808140987015743], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.9035046198310182], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.80852258865326], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.8456544144898073], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.8456544144898073], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.8456544144898073], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.8222217012653017], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.8341647535035139], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.8341647535035139], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.8341647535035139], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.8244438286742662], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.848163653271678], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.8943658697509281], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.8949867484846945], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.9112632072699365], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6723225725667413], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6752953026295802], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6995384276654699], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.727081909090394], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7433290004157066], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7814259791881368], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7951743422149438], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7951743422149438], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7951743422149438], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.8033357217895586], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.8058944996272887], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.8141570993364758], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.8141570993364758], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.8141570993364758], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.8178158814362968], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.8199952711585308], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8231330446931455], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8270059823524938], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8419343610108241], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.856826268419635], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8568262684196357], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8593427769630904], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8605433784117905], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8645624259327044], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8656457160626758], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8755356857279333], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8773602429012264], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.889662622802475], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.8904048840970642], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.84], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.84], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.84], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8474434283630454], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.852473355413672], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8611940385224431], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8700000000000001], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8725539372813895], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.8915788697597941], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8369321781905995], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8433139875671007], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8433449214257153], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8436906657510376], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8436906657510376], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.8436906657510376], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8547388416580299], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.85681164184276], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.8608029654005319], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.8780991629174344], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.8780991629174344], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.880095302273196], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9277121947857593], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9306165686116119], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9306165686116119], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.9306165686116119], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.9330824793872183], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9099999999999999], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9099999999999999], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9099999999999999], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9193306092882354], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9306408543869356], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9309500632597306], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9336036476864427], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9336036476864427], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9336036476864427], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9348625770346045], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9372554866462863], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9372554866462863], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.9372554866462863], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9531652934881621], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9544519886002905], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9557059095869157], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9557059095869157], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9557059095869157], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.9544831855730977], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.9557355726391005], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.962105294636278], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9630076415239722], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9657501073082714], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9665029128961306], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9698567756570037], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.9704554302100125], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9715902792656596], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9721285366984768], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.9702351106997326], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.9752751013203642], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.9756944397626323], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.9757069445860146], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.974867378949563], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.9749111003683479], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.9749979783817959], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9814425585356772], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9815742086062785], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9976723084974948]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Detroit Lions?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-13-dec-3-will-the-new-orle", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Caesars Superdome at 10:00 PST on December 3, 2023.\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.34], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4098360655737714], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.40999999999999975], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.42999999999999994], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.30695224281585315], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.3299999999999999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.2999999999999999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.30742163370215553], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.33000000000000007], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.33000000000000007], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.31022155310883787], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.34739264977747836], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.00056500148507945], 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0.05999999999999991], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.05999999999999991], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.05999999999999991], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.05999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.05999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.05999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06005544774702898], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06166395273967655], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.061702394980494804], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06200386745076045], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06291606050537485], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06418435150249685], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06418435150249685], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06418435150249685], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06581207814705502], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0660587653205449], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0660587653205449], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0660587653205449], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06691605218546136], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06829303107631594], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06881982028158086], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06881982028158086], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06881982028158086], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06985425918285003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06999999999999991], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06999999999999998], 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0.0781112537084558], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.07956374635192189], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.07968412220133766], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.07968412220133766], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.07968412220133766], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.07977879334412549], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0797954299958102], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.07981793402092716], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.07999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.07999999999999997], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08296785928884141], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08296785928884141], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08296785928884141], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08325227353045363], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08325227353045363], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08325227353045363], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08543085476488844], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08621407498677375], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 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"resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley are scheduled to fight on August 19th, 2023 at UFC 292 in Boston, USA.  If Sean O'Malley wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Aljamain Sterling wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-06", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-06\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.53], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.572359582112112], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.4716627496114303], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.5272271171787656], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.36075614909080017], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.37999999999999984], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.40674736051737853], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.42], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.44667710321781456], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.3711905220250559], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.3894376687648341], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.4597462504984071], [\"2023-08-17\", 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A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-01\", 0.29930491733550313], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.38999999999999996], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.39241434978446943], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.39241434978446943], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.39241434978446943], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.420084290463882], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.45000000000000023], 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"manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:\n\nhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect\n\nThis should lead to an imminent by-election.\n\nWill anyone who is not standing for Labour, the Conservatives or the Lib Dems win the seat?\n\n    If a candidate who has formerly been associated with another party (eg. Jeremy Corbyn, Rory Stewart) stands as an independent and wins the seat, this market will resovle to YES.\n\n    If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A).", "date_begin": "2023-06-09", "date_close": "2023-10-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-09\", 0.06845196863273052], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.0815812045600162], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.09], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.13528956100769624], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.15575614516229347], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.2508459873554771], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.2998276897071214], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.44], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.08194873111599325], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.08550293580192841], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.06403609900329466], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.061118106374762705], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.04963505170990731], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.062032501723459796], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.062032501723459796], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.09137099523457591], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.029668658208671865], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.040000000000000015], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.03354865055930322], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.03403550208299752], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.02000000000000002], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.03027663490586973], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.017807340926402772], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.017807340926402772], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.017807340926402772], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.01933898856236721], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.019505755791143334], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.012505209447079323], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.00030970540122213653]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will a new Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected before the end of October 18th?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/cash/will-a-new-speaker-of-the-us-house-335758cdeb4d", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives on 3 Oct 2023. The House was originally expected to hold an election for Speaker next Wednesday (11th of October), but after the Republican caucus nominated Steve Scalise, the chamber adjourned for the day.\n\nWill a new Speaker be elected by the end of October 18th (EST)?", "date_begin": "2023-10-12", "date_close": "2023-10-19", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-19", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-12\", 0.5753249756078669], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.6456919058440801], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.6515046071112623], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.18954813258200795], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1906104430815228], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1916603080733198], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.19402819736280436], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.19793751522793362], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2122098371083732], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.21707033770734693], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2370746361287406], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.2615824560212873], 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A game that otherwise does not have a winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-08", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6430293934030078], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6782984221798604], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7193949888708785], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.7376032627135396], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.694637078353859], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.764222464136947], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.6509628359530698], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.685515778409162], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.685515778409162], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.685515778409162], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.5727603155215919], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.59], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.59], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.59], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2024-01-02\", 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"background": "The game will take place at State Farm Stadium at 13:25 PDT on October 29, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.48000000000000004], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5163890381515316], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.24557386194520817], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.24557386194520817], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.24557386194520822], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.24557386194520822], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.24557386194520822], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.2455738619452081], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.2455738619452081], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.36], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.38004464931883325], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3521614067040151], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3600000000000004], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3600000000000004], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3600000000000004], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3499999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 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[\"2023-10-29\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3197527110570589], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3200000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.33000000000000007], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36733161733161734], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.0008217081339310561]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Manon Fiorot beat Rose Namajunas?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-manon-fiorot-beat-rose-namajun", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Manon Fiorot and Rose Namajunas are scheduled to fight on September 2nd, 2023 at a UFC event in Paris, France.  If Manon Fiorot wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Rose Namajunas wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-09-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.5981353480147885], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.6266239647176575], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.44661514994342627], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.4740082753804354], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.3799963907499158], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5880087691051291], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.4899999999999997], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.4899999999999997], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.4899999999999997], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5012794852315697], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5049605409206726], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5099999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5303521014354192], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5333563368242951], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.6998956214390071], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.79], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8101219632932353], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8498487705928394], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8559127036130981], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8564612299932955], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9769222069175518], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.979381224413723], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.979381224413723], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.979381224413723], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9999573976215055]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 10 (Nov 9): Will the Chicago Bears beat the Carolina Panthers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-10-nov-9-will-the-chicago", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Soldier Field at 5:15 PST on November 9, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-11-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.4803996925441968], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6495884219038337], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.7229306736162964], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.8067109797017886], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.87], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.8973231137368303], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.15298701186865257], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.35], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.42332915312814867], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5258053734422115], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5449806503196897], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.6], 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0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.652302551418115], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.6657012203450994], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.6860305465077656], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6113974952509869], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6299999999999996], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6299999999999996], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6484537673701344], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6484537673701344], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6484537673701344], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.6699999999999999], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.55], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.5967455618933295], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.601944975146951], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6146535482118437], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6224414327024441], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6307289957866485], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6346379915660045], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6346379915660045], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6346379915660045], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6599999999999998], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6599999999999998], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.6599999999999998], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.67], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.30944295001572375], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.32000000000000023], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3428171641791045], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.35213001723713383], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.37006802721088433], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3744849092326542], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.38], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.38000000000000017], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.38690476190476203], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.38690476190476203], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.38690476190476203], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.38994014872135907], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.38994014872135907], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.38994014872135907], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3974987430869784], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3974987430869784], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3974987430869784], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.39870603213778905], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.39919014354411897], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.3997638037729941], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.41000000000000003], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4170127353266889], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4170127353266889], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4170127353266889], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.41999999999999965], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.41999999999999965], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.41999999999999965], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.42053772522522526], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.43738390454573434], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.44], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4464285714285713], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4464285714285713], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4464285714285713], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.44999999999999984], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.46], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.48000000000000004], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.48000000000000004], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.48000000000000004], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4884215734152163], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4899999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4899999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.4899999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5023673784375824], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5300000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5300000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5300000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5300993983628097], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.530701754385965], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5495313510019392], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5495313510019392], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5495313510019392], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5669056152927121], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5669056152927121], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5669056152927121], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5845789850155589], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5927876519414808], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5992975734355044], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5992975734355044], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5992975734355044], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6067742496153578], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6067742496153578], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6067742496153578], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.636482939632546], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.636482939632546], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.636482939632546], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.659432497295459], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6756362119315812], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6756362119315812], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6756362119315812], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6847290640394089], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6847290640394089], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6847290640394089], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6963470319634701], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6963470319634701], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6963470319634701], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.6963470319634704], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7265336289726534], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7366621067031464], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7499999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7701298701298702], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7701298701298702], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7701298701298702], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7737556561085974], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7737556561085974], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7737556561085974], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7806603773584905], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7806603773584905], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7806603773584905], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.785336183064678], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7918476876886368], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7975140336808342], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8082437275985663], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8082437275985663], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8082437275985663], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8082437275985663], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8099999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8119392684610077], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8119392684610077], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8119392684610077], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8222278610030661], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8299999999999997], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8300000000000002], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8371794871794872], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8371794871794873], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8563218390804597], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8977408533072304], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9531535953234062], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9560044536080639], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9585907345004748], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9609447361594087], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.980898627585886], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.980898627585886], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.980898627585886], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9818622820349661], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9818902672056178], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9917993909674548], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9961280978711123], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9973448435053232], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9973448435053232], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9973448435053232], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9993413279968779], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9997625096660766]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Amanda Lemos beat Zhang Weili at UFC 292?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-amanda-lemos-beat-zhang-weili", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos are scheduled to fight on August 19th, 2023 at UFC 292 in Boston, USA. They will be fighting for the UFC Strawweight Championship.\n\nIf Amanda Lemos wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Zhang Weili wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-06", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-06\", 0.3378378378378379], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.24599441640427192], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.30546358026592374], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.090336383221753], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.20000000000000012], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.22000000000000006], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.22921936306606613], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.24446846716604512], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.14139580783998354], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1899999999999999], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.21000000000000002], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.21000000000000002], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.21000000000000002], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.2424541207047013], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.20038794458170273], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.22667497504743825], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.22667497504743825], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.22667497504743825], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.238391357953638], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.00014481700359561287], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.0010248924048229377], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.014455214977674219], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.014455214977674219], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.014455214977674219], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.015517791274446293], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.015517791274446293], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.015517791274446293], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.04258132918562772], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.049643223839944677], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.05129410910477204], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.061132089706638054], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.07460338891903522], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.09389480521150095], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.11508652508293246], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.11962262353082395], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.1415573907332658], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.15999999999999995], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.1698147259861409], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.1996606406852384], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.2084514695920344], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.21787734600530173], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.22574767337633947], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.22800076972104166], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.23889179286537965], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.24999999999999978], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.24999999999999978], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.24999999999999978], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.2506290428190423], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.2633008792277018], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.26590132027760105]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-16-dec-24-will-the-minneso", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at U.S. Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 24, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.3569706065969926], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.38000000000000017], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.2794737532184796], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.30854721103010935], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.1997329245237409], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.3073484070960792], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.27060598702604094], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.28500006017173], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.3902172977478598], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.4489475228966264], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.24723459020547797], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.4320480014826648], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39215177197123924], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41046903939737317], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.38571754410253395], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.41352384576971396], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.43458216714032477], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4129624480720351], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.28514419517360495], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.2926002629882011], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.3800566199170241], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.3859993021721518], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.35079561070639254], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.38999999999999974], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.3798555409528966], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.3900000000000002], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3765189550136863], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3899999999999998], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3899999999999998], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3899999999999998], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.40000000000000024], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.40000000000000024], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.40000000000000024], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.419003989154047], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4200329855822921], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4200329855822923], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.42999999999999977], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.42999999999999977], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.42999999999999977], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.42999999999999994], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.42999999999999994], 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"https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-volkan-oezdemir-beat-bogdan-gu", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Volkan Oezdemir and Bogdan Guskov are scheduled to fight on September 2nd, 2023 at a UFC event in Paris, France.  If Volkan Oezdemir wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Bogdan Guskov wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-09-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.5981353480147885], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5189166476483779], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.5500000000000003], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8277716020128721], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8844147741533785], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8971621970962776], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9879220430276819], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.999961472767636]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Ciryl Gane beat Serghei Spivac?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-ciryl-gane-beat-serghei-spivac", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Ciryl Gane and Serghei Spivac are scheduled to fight on September 2nd, 2023 at a UFC event in Paris, France.  If Ciryl Gane wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Serghei Spivac wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-09-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.5981353480147885], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.6150666488178559], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.6877015314335293], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.2708591624789154], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.3399999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.37], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.52], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.52], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.52], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5217179840102527], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5300000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5300000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5300000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5515420244235637], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5572101454911477], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.5578917912170195], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7287134059512427], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8315522716996456], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8759983572740899], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9504209507666076], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9589536471680444], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9589536471680444], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9589536471680444], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9994034481239961], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.9999589769149707]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 7 (Oct 23): Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the San Francisco 49ers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-7-oct-23-will-the-minnesot", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at U.S. Bank Stadium at 17:15 PDT on October 23, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.37174721189591103], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.4199999999999999], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.45430623563480843], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.05653107389516604], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.08000000000000006], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.08000000000000006], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.08000000000000006], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.1388610450211594], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.15999999999999992], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.1897740162509927], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.1897740162509927], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.1897740162509927], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.21713262604098915], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.21713262604098915], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.21713262604098924], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.21713262604098924], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.22999999999999995], 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"background": "The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 13:05 PDT on October 22, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5196003074558031], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.5650906135668905], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.28098474618568337], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.47185793316321867], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.45999999999999985], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.45999999999999985], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.45999999999999985], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.479891106758246], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.48410619656034887], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.52], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 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0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8019714099938269], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8052408813176787], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8084317824715317], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8092024137481167], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8092024137481167], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8092024137481167], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8175468883443444], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8191455299376302], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8194423337484458], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8194423337484458], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8194423337484458], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8246597474863375], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8254954155575275], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8254954155575275], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8254954155575275], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8371794871794872], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8393055775751256], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8548094373865698], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.865232587092276], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.865232587092276], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.865232587092276], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8693548387096774], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8700000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8717822648675325], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8787878787878788], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8869047619047619], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8889247941767883], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8930453108535302], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8930453108535302], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8930453108535302], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8956523398411123], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8956523398411123], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8956523398411123], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8999710396852428], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9100000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9124615852220683], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9193167883241974]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Tony Ferguson beat Bobby Green at UFC 291?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-tony-ferguson-beat-bobby-green", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green are scheduled to fight on July 29th, 2023 at UFC 291 in Salt Lake City, Utah. \n\nIf Tony Ferguson wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Bobby Green wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-07-06", "date_close": "2023-07-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.6230769230769232], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.26371405801965275], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.3900000000000003], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5310040244056565], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.2623869561096911], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.37], [\"2023-07-16\", 0.4938989382870676], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.26047645609399767], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.26047645609399767], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.26047645609399767], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.47], [\"2023-07-17\", 0.5754185338735759], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.29000000000000015], [\"2023-07-18\", 0.31009765260468924], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.2614716987571278], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.2614716987571278], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.5144364723239159], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.28], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.3043621061245363], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.2999999999999998], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.31792446716384165], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.24243551447661843], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.24243551447661843], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.2748315380336939], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.2769425490783435], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.3], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.31104670010590135], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.3273954085519409], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.36000000000000015], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.2621130345186322], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.2726967554507802], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.30000000000000016], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3089306490420077], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.32127414127418846], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.33000000000000007], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3324107371232119], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.34000000000000025], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3400000000000003], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3400000000000003], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3499999999999999], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3530512000745742], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.35305120007457425], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3599999999999997], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3599999999999999], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3599999999999999], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.37], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.37], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.39], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.4299999999999999], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.5040209123906848], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.6001881802962605], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.2524664217807426], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.29261101892835617], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.31838750771821317], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.32000000000000023], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.3602821129116158], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.3699999999999998], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.3699999999999998], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.39999999999999997], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.292665015077976], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.31363575455413545], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.3346601893622245], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.3609072699058719], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.3699999999999998], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.37], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.39999999999999974], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.39999999999999997], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.3114902997772949], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.33119057051221396], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.3400000000000002], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0003405048298261701], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0004902123686016268], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0004949034600882462], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0015395810086333667], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.002012467814999438], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.006609676788914905], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.01646927844465113], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.017226498682327413], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.017226498682327413], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.017226498682327413], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.018068552541429698], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.020000000000000028], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.020000000000000028], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.020000000000000028], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.035062820697521924], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.04086002473985607], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.06359295877391008], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0908887222804728], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.10295876675300515], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.11455136805845774], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1175263657833462], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.12632056937992628], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.12999999999999984], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.12999999999999984], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.12999999999999984], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.13], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.13750253199751178], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.15000000000000016], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1627649427605632], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1859052616656313], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.1983321029896911], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.199107695524719], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.20027948776455537], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.20254446677251667], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.2049744970850926], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.20602437257988984], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.21030793762401553], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.21390959896459608], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.22783113133325145], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.22999999999999987], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.23786671642916832], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.24327549655831554], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.2456790015727899], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.25655058896792804], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.2695390736694595], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.29127245013178094], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.29127245013178094], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.29127245013178094], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.3293238461950966], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.34999999999999987], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.3700000000000003], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.4600000000000002], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.4865292115262111]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Seattle Seahawks?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-9-nov-5-will-the-baltimore", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-11-05", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.5254007121759161], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.47010662402371517], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.48999999999999977], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4899999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5300000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5399999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5399999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5399999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5626874462450825], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5923004804417906], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5966314472856673], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6289664437709113], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6472648104607985], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6490174790681373], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6554629377436542], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6005985248191902], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.625866012166622], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.7091852729060701], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.7140368089297073], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.7243564636287619], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.74], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.6972483531592542], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.6972483531592542], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.6972483531592542], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7018012074681321], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7018012074681321], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7018012074681321], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.6340699728912528], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.6718081994826697], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.68], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.6972638581326983], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.6972811783220125], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.6983851808175956], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.6983851808175956], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.7183079915728489], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.7200000000000002], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.7318571899441508], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.7318571899441508], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.7318571899441508], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.7409457596740199], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8122168977535156], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.82], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8482398470131398], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8573110671055094], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8626678690489893], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8679176113442029], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8789729280998304], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8789729280998304], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8789729280998304], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8852601771310783], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8852601771310783], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8852601771310783], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8991289770440554], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9032948050749814], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9052075261428834], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9083169836304097], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9085754145502226], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.92], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.92], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.92], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9281418979242709], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.95], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9502196416115639], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9537496734338579], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9537496734338579], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9537496734338579], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.96], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.963579612301611], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.963579612301611], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.963579612301611], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9656795632263988], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9688392052251485], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.970488951518063], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9722000512929094], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9734025483683244], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9735822282092781], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9758875441101297], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9814973352982518], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9841763049267598], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9853461533038606], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.99], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.990912039746876], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.993036355406039], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9940677587981479], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9943243923234295], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.994450624767039], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.9998835999770873]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Los Angeles Chargers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-7-oct-22-will-the-kansas-c", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium at 13:25 PDT on October 22, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-12\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5901639344262293], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.6548513103932135], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6653760893443642], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5751617092815174], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5876315895073543], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5883021965416911], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5883021965416911], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5883021965416911], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5913078149920253], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5981409224195231], 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"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-a-dark-horse-candidate-be-the", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market resolves YES if anyone other than the 6 people in the tile is the next speaker of the house. It resolves NO if one of those six people is the next speaker.", "date_begin": "2023-10-20", "date_close": "2023-10-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-20\", 0.3056866699893316], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.37012238218251015], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.42000000000000004], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.42000000000000004], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.42000000000000004], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4230796323037369], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.43803792002593456], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4829991738037041], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4899999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5163890381515316], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5273840553826659], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5275403039754417], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5289074760858621], 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"[\"https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data#panel\"]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Cleveland Browns?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-7-oct-22-will-the-indianap", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 22, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.15351144590905935], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.18999999999999997], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.19478389769738977], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.22020407139909567], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.22318882102192192], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.23000000000000012], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.25], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.262281136544406], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.31251462511894423], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3183896662635267], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3199999999999998], [\"2023-10-18\", 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A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-13\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.6661172649832049], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5355642393355171], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.6], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.41756159064478643], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.42973065587376647], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5099999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5099999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5099999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5099999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5299999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5299999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.41], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.43999999999999995], 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A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.409836065573771], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.24567922010355592], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2592933890971331], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2632176330196061], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.266141983158769], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2735077538577503], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.28385125711621656], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2855217405162778], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2982141908453293], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3244216001381858], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.32999999999999985], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3313689496140233], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3329742535344812], [\"2023-10-26\", 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In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. \n\nRemoving impurities (like CuS) is OK.\n\nIncreasing impurities that were also present in LK-99 original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it\u2019s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. \n\nSynthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. \n\nSuperconductivity:\n\nThe original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn\u2019t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. \n\nAt this point, I\u2019m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. \n\nDemonstration of:\n\n    Meissner effect\n\n    R = 0 below Tc (satisfied by electric field < 0.1 - 1 uV/cm or resistivity < ~10^-11 Ohm*cm)\n\n    Phase change\n\nWhile superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I\u2019m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don\u2019t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least some measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn\u2019t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.", "date_begin": "2023-08-02", "date_close": "2023-11-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Science & Tech", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-02\", 0.2912493051937796], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.31648299801593416], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.337837837837838], [\"2023-08-02\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.19337770177239108], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.06929515580894006], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.07787377324677548], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.08], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.0952446346553084], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.11332338403004234], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.14971662321031928], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1497564438316656], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.1600000000000001], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.021242274045758514], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.027015965581139178], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.029034015184759898], 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{"question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will #3 Texas beat #2 Washington in the Sugar Bowl CFP Semifinal?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-3-texas-beat-2-was", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "date_begin": "2023-12-03", "date_close": "2024-01-02", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-03\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5019007695893752], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.6267627900973872], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.6425311666757993], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.5803212383339378], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.602680599117398], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-04\", 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A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-11-05", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.4803996925441968], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5199999999999998], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5899999999999997], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.6778722984591958], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.7099999999999997], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-11-01\", 0.7019122255214127], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.69], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.6904462245868648], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.71], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.7254218726040782], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5993401961890221], 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0.8413043762558431], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8476121449379879], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8476121449379879], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8476121449379879], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8700000000000001], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8700000000000001], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8700000000000001], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8718033114112145], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.886904761904762], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.8899999999999999]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 8 (Oct 26): Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-8-oct-26-will-the-buffalo", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Highmark Stadium at 17:15 PDT on October 26, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-12\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7568326193255698], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7568326193255698], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7568326193255698], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.67], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.7833371293829131], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.7833371293829131], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.7833371293829131], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7833371293829129], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7833371293829129], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7833371293829129], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7833371293829129], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7833371293829129], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7833371293829129], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.8080776351437082], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7543553017763154], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7833371293829131], 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A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.37174721189591103], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.32483401517990806], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.34], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.39764919212944], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3366087834726429], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.36426152839324044], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3767289409471887], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.42000000000000015], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.42000000000000015], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.42000000000000015], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.42000000000000015], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4300000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 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0.9999739357109666], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9999739357109666], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9999739357109666]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the Nasdaq Composite close at 13775 or higher on 7/14/2023? [1 week]", "url": "https://manifold.markets/XComhghall/will-the-nasdaq-composite-close-at-514fc08ff9cd", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "date_begin": "2023-07-10", "date_close": "2023-07-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-12\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.74], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.805239764277125], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.8414867480816952], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.8753672900487819], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.8939905284830151], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9039796717272534], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9162854588890829], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9274427287069545], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9309251912413136], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9494698040361921], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9678322991333215], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9700000000000001], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9700000000000001], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9700000000000001], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9871159467423023], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9872932849582933], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9881713888048136], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9881713888048136], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9881713888048136], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9882656711236223], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9882743950924867], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.997798020953827], [\"2023-07-14\", 0.9978019073391426], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.9996806147433887], [\"2023-07-15\", 0.9997548958079241]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/COMP/historical-prices\"]"}, {"question": "Will Chan Sung Jung (The Korean Zombie) beat Max Holloway?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-chan-sung-jung-the-korean-zomb", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Chan Sung Jung (The Korean Zombie) and Max Holloway are scheduled to fight on August 26th, 2023 at a UFC event in Singapore.  If Jung wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Holloway wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-20", "date_close": "2023-08-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-20\", 0.25706940874035994], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.2753560825161325], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.22779897347881037], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.23999999999999963], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.00019996509892056903], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.001956519902426259], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0028944694148328827], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.029450132280641673], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.029467230643875516], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.029895538624427693], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.029895538624427696], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.029895538624427696], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.03000000000000002], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.03399377946682337], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.03522764117893766], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.03522764117893766], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.03522764117893766], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.03615798336615207], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0407662972855798], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0407662972855798], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.0407662972855798], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.09425764379853552], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.10775054298216157], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.12999999999999984], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.21119142479779693], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.2158320802003163], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.22999999999999982], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.24217875187960758]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Houston Texans?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-18-jan-5-will-the-indianap", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5498697040655006], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3719854799702929], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.5083988210639155], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.5308093937016332], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.456103761207391], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.4928597684151731], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.4928597684151731], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.4928597684151731], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.3558749616221719], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.4200000000000001], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.4200000000000001], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.4200000000000001], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.47000000000000003], 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at SoFi Stadium at 5:20 PST on November 26, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-11-27", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-27", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-22\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4098360655737703], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.25445259735534886], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.25945116693100295], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2632176330196061], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2800000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.28072668312232046], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.29], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2933383006533101], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3156877381802975], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3313689496140231], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3600000000000002], 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"[]"}, {"question": "Will the right wing party AfD (Alternative f\u00fcr Deutschland) in Germany be above 20% in surveys at the end of the year?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Schlitty/will-the-right-wing-party-afd-alter", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This resolves yes according to the last posted results on Twitter @Wahlen_DE in 2023 for \"Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl\" if it's 21% or more. They currently (30th of June) stand at 19%.", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-30\", 0.23837374192330316], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.2682753830291284], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.27000000000000013], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.28089887640449446], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.2937723070441666], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.3066269132763611], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.2900598043497757], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.42493646464291435], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.4499046660125623], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.45705599661041774], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.47747053357618724], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.47996500664544905], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.5039624861209343], [\"2023-07-10\", 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0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.826712437285813], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.8267514747930029], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.8845924575638733], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.7540282863439324], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.760647636430893], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6574406614344811], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6574406614344811], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6680882486528023], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6789149964974293], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6898157066858159], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6999906420489208], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6999999999999996], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6999999999999996], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6999999999999996], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7037360733062897], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7205823310686359], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7406099839702813], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7997913650010252], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.7199999999999985], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.7199999999999985], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.7199999999999995], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.7199999999999996], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.7199999999999984], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.7199999999999984], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.7199999999999984], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.7199999999999984], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.7199999999999983], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7146064307237555], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7187680329632394], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7199999999999982], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7200000000000005], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7200000000000005], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7200000000000005], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.720000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7200000000000011], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7338454337529781], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7404235267972735], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7436157028145214], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7499999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.740517255972679], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7497384050666466], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7499999999999998], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7412089341001643], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7456183407281584], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7499999999999996], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7499999999999996], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7499999999999997], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7499999999999997], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7499999999999997], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7499999999999998], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7762764579848532], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7859650902948658], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.7900000000000003], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6874723812887656], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6920114924000021], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7229556314035382], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7403715154652172], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7489312313569999], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.765722464712406], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7679375603618256], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7679375603618256], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7679375603618256], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7739419033477438], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7820362254937945], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7899999999999996], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8099511203782291], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8099511203782291], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8099511203782291], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.840351281187703], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.840351281187703], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.840351281187703], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8478644394733474], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8590962065182228], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8590962065182228], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8590962065182228], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8689564556132188], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8689564556132188], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.8689564556132188], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9006059306221207], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9011215597472784], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9061825471550965], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.955808129592479], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.955808129592479], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.955808129592479], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9571334389841789], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9571334389841791], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9574281064372259], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9586842351439746], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9739555771457448], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.977288036785837], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9841810422036065], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9878017881461479], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9880726114852466], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9888817290506451], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.989110025068527], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9929452615819998], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9934326131761325], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9951727590790771], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.996232411560035], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9964725331065569], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.997108379960472]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Biden give additional aid to Ukraine by July 31?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-biden-give-additional-aid-to-u", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "If the US Department of Defense (DoD) announces the Biden Administration's forty-third drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021 by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-07-20", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-20\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.39853301021598486], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6160629162572572], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6919792524633681], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.6952817367972729], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.77], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.8557187078268861], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.5216647205665854], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.777938949539811], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.8837169987262461], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.9206536166369732], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.9399999999999998], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.9522298077006293], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.984220843374771], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9855274243449466], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9855274243449466], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9855274243449466], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.9925809298201081], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.7465730388334675], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.8017601119471529], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.82], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.8234236102197238], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.84], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.848883768552937], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.848883768552937], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.848883768552937], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.8552207788281094], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.8593926224560697], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.8593926224560697], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.8593926224560697], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9728779061316155], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9871950178471115], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9878924517774693], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9923435558163817], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9958329922012248], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.9972457581439103], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.991799685478294], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9918299035456055], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9949934130342057], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.9950068117828271], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.995965241552369], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9995887959937457]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-ukraine-have-de-facto-control-a526c2c3fee8", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War's map shows the Velikiy Tokmak railway station in Tokmak (47.234273433498416, 35.71907485774982) as not under either \"assessed Russian advance\" or \"assessed Russian control\". Notably, the railway station is on the southern end of the town.\n\nIf the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for the assessed territory, then Metaculus will decide according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources.\n\nIf, at the time of resolution, the Velikiy Tokmak railway station no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will be resolved based on control of the area where the building was located on the 21st of February 2022, the latest Google Earth image of the station available at the time of writing.", "date_begin": "2023-10-07", "date_close": "2024-01-02", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-07\", 0.17128577506187195], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.190047496331995], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.190047496331995], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.190047496331995], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.190047496331995], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.21699305643096306], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.2263555319700921], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.22838908285115625], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.22838908285115625], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.22838908285115625], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.23593116620850277], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.28991472249013284], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.49668826039977704], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1426356461257425], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1600000000000001], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1827443884052845], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.18847166109146812], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.19910717343772133], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.20999999999999996], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.20999999999999996], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.20999999999999996], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.22000000000000022], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.22000000000000022], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.22000000000000022], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.24000000000000007], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.2600000000000002], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.26000000000000023], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.26000000000000023], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.26000000000000023], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.27047121944338587], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.31820532249004446], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.09999999999999995], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.11772665034804608], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.11999999999999995], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.11999999999999995], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.11999999999999995], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.13], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.13521441433070805], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.18999999999999997], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.19759631661556332], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.2063763743928323], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.20999999999999983], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.20999999999999983], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.20999999999999983], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.20999999999999983], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.22307760657941822], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.2299999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.25635398564181716], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.2600000000000001], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.27000000000000013], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.3069470029966548], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.07860795572577942], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.08957439433568432], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.11931428670695825], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.1240124236782584], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.1700000000000001], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.19062925638205333], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2000000000000001], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2000000000000001], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2000000000000001], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.2541411608704124], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.05019470612636235], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.05019470612636235], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.05019470612636235], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.05165851403550688], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.05240167512775975], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.05438457763018142], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.054675238155496894], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.05921905175527462], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.060762874857718], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.06700553105522121], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.0694385803092608], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.06949912690120838], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.03873917900548027], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0412176767293441], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0412176767293441], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.0412176767293441], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.043733733774826894], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.044219990382474164], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.0501869738663802], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.052707934477951704], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.046277831584900626], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.046277831584900626], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.046277831584900626], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.0493018256512267], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.04112785487479099], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.04115086210120552], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.04115086210120552], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.04115086210120552], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.04357675626688898], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.04387805498743179], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.05617292944777898], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.0713698362836838], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.04600225225164831], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.06121943689348544], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.06634216866473636], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.04946160732317836], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.020416612890640964], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.02043593596018823], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.029344233816486164], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.029344233816486164], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.029344233816486164], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.030000000000000013], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.018369091641769163], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0011524485942276197], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.004676163436942867], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.008183059280941093], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011350065129707177], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01135444856136896], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01135444856136896], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.01135444856136896], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.011572124772010263]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Giga Chikadze beat Alex Caceres?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-giga-chikadze-beat-alex-cacere", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Giga Chikadze and Alex Caceres are scheduled to fight on August 26th, 2023 at a UFC event in Singapore.  If Giga Chikadze wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Alex Caceres wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-20", "date_close": "2023-08-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-20\", 0.6282527881040891], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.6383001320232758], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.7328242022550113], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.6750436562420695], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7201091374194071], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7558190524181063], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7558190524181063], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.7558190524181063], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9016676701045434], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9147931226292967], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.92], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9359002860850767], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9386579346771248], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9392301246258301], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9519962836429641], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9559355032081466], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9637901128621635], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9754401028164732], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9942061447142666], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9982485968138268], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9998869130915768]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Taylor Swift announce Reputation (Taylor's Version) by the start of 2024?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/will-taylor-swift-announce-reputati", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The announcement must contain the cover and the release date.", "date_begin": "2023-11-13", "date_close": "2024-01-02", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-13\", 0.1000000000000001], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.15581060493623752], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.1709657732659214], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.18000000000000016], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.2106330895551496], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.2378455064739554], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.24999999999999997], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.31515511376756034], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.46364763792753894], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.13415307651471475], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.14999999999999994], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.39099830444227157], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.39099830444227157], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.39099830444227157], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.39099830444227157], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.4], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.40015236915364455], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.4113930197421142], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.41531537265466545], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.42], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.42000000000000004], [\"2023-11-26\", 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0.10588520775412205], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1089579421708895], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10927278482800636], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10958903652065813], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1128309291016605], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.10999253579436923], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.08999999999999997], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.10689136339551694], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.07848671467726338], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.07999999999999993], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.08289755105120267], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.08999999999999993], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.10710079214273378], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.053945102266786144], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.06120792276831507], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.06274629273142619], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06667764122098781], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.05669392804340364], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.061365819454230135], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.054565796162893566], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.04891955240614643], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.03877885714584185], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.03935804062527891], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04000000000000002], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04004283772296906], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.0405504177524812], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04500192789847599], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.0439319421012961], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0014921872753985174], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.0024430373148999493], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.00831411832680413], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.029213105717703265], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.029228644562327533], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.03000299728849808], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.001477176437943434]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the cost of GPT-4 API decrease by the end of 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ShadowyZephyr/will-the-cost-of-gpt4-api-decrease", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Sam Altman reportedly stated that \"Cheaper and faster GPT-4\" is OpenAI's top priority (paraphrased). Will the price of the GPT-4 API decrease in 2023?\n\n\"GPT-4\" is defined as: Any product commonly referred to as \"gpt-4\" or similar by OpenAI. Names like \"gpt-4-0314,\" \"gpt-4-multimodal-2,\" \"gpt-4,\" or \"gpt-4-oct,\" would count as long as they are commonly referred to as GPT-4 and build off the original GPT-4 models. \"gpt-4-plus,\" \"gpt-4.5,\" or \"gpt-4.1\" would not count unless OpenAI regularly calls them GPT-4 and the consensus is that they are newer versions of gpt-4. Must be accessible by API, waitlisted is fine. \n\nThis specifically refers to the API, services like ChatGPT don't count, even if they switch to per-token pricing. You must be able to use it in code with an API key.\n\nResolves YES if:\n\u2022 The price per 1k prompt tokens of any version of GPT-4 goes below $0.03 at any point before close of this market\n\n\u2022 The price per 1k output tokens of any version of GPT-4 goes below $0.06 at any point before close of this market\n\nElse, resolves 50% if:\n\u2022 The price per 1k prompt tokens of a version of GPT-4 with a max text context length of 32K tokens or higher goes below $0.06 at any point before close of this market\n\n\u2022 The price per 1k prompt tokens of a version of GPT-4 with a max text context length of 32K tokens or higher goes below $0.12 at any point before close of this market\n\nResolves N/A if: \n\u2022 I cannot tell whether a model that may have satisfied the above conditions counts as gpt-4 or not on close date.\n\u2022 There is credible evidence that a gpt-4 model that may have satisfied the above conditions is being offered through an API to specific people, but OpenAI has not confirmed this on close date.\n\nResolves NO if:\n\u2022 None of the above conditions are true.", "date_begin": "2023-06-08", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-08\", 0.6300101029838739], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7299775970483904], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.74293059125964], [\"2023-06-14\", 0.8618824968732026], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.8174560489272795], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.7767791550725556], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.8011207584462038], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.4261377090311639], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.5985494075949235], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.61], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.6183947990625521], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.62], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.6248256636003985], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.63], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.6431140232385791], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.6499999999999999], 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0.8169815836461438], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.7865361382803221]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the New York Jets beat the Buffalo Bills in their Week 1 matchup in the 2023 NFL season?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-new-york-jets-beat-the-buf", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "It's the start of a new NFL season, and we have our first Monday Night Football game between two AFC East rivals looking to win that crown. With the Jets bringing in Aaron Rodgers along with last year's two Rookies of the Year, will the Jets begin their Super Bowl expectation-ladden season with a win? Or will Josh Allen show why the Bills have led the East these past few seasons with a victory?\n\nYes - Jets win\n\nNo - Bills win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets cancelled (Like Bengals-Bills last season).", "date_begin": "2023-09-05", "date_close": "2023-09-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-05\", 0.3881116330929756], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.5097104015575612], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.3556378658547087], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.42444336446246717], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.4099999999999996], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.4099999999999996], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.2843371720507767], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.38402538137141023], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3900000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.3900000000000001], 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0.9967863933401799], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9972533796113798], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9972533796113798], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9972533796113798], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9978956732147728], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9981854252874226], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9993443841286971], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9993565220717696], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.999393881792438], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9994614715645439], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9994706966860575], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9994706966860575], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9994706966860575], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.999488494484207], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.999488494484207], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.999488494484207], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9995075775578715], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9995080853379532], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.999513656648737], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.999513656648737], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.999513656648737], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9996160574436742], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9997058799924594], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9997551743788481], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9997551743788481], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.999759370457491], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9997720102896587], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9997792277988511], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.9998307618642507]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Barbie gross $1.4 billion worldwide by the end of 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-14-billion-worldw", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The Barbie film has been a huge success, already grossing $1.03 billion worldwide.\n\nThat makes it the second film of the year (after the Super Mario Bros Movie) to hit the Billon Dollar mark and Manifold users currently give it a 95% chance of hitting $1.2 billion:\n\nWill it keep going and hit $1.4 billion?\n\nI will use the page at Box Office Mojo as the source. If the worldwide total hits $1.4 billion (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the year and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO.", "date_begin": "2023-08-07", "date_close": "2023-09-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-07\", 0.022714813888816517], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.09154376493831023], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.27082200614385366], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.4704147435779885], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.5060176549650741], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.59], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.6246539205072626], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.6354581365193401], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.69], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.7121113185669806], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.73], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.7414082055169794], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.7499408187376582], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.76], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.76], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.76], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.7738417540630277], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.7798187408868155], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.78], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.7853057202434998], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.7881922751458535], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.7950833078665188], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.8027859726713982], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.8393198754448254], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.6985746610844235], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7011777621258337], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.74], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.74], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.74], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7456400198773679], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7600947111582618], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7642648912447748], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7642648912447748], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7642648912447748], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7972435456047535], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.8351084591753657], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.889076931368612], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.7537333103525344], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.7588220969099895], [\"2023-08-10\", 0.7634827023390187], [\"2023-08-11\", 0.7812912289693099], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.7663045234276677], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8335924683208227], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8379025354429281], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.842622896425148], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8600202906092644], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8681103175129538], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.87], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8030617434762721], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8323627588243798], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8323627588243798], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8323627588243798], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.8714567127097576], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.8371991274208883], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.845117983312364], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.851222262521024], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.8531155679054572], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.8699802868253489], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.8728843480875076], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.8858743404287289], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.8967433385068959], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.8996621686837258], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.8941341268316285], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.7812912289693099], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.7812912289693099], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.8981613504467104], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.921395990697823], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.927228828387252], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.9323522903071841], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.9368825440954054], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9389549559781036], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.953113097856755], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9581000461153358], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9609232361389073], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9627070424963885], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.9626791028748763], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.964797393495838], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.9641833412105616], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.9641833412105616], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.9641833412105616], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.9650782197175141], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.9655847370469609], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.9655847370469609], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.9655847370469609], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.9989367115380585]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Anthony Smith beat Ryan Spann?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-anthony-smith-beat-ryan-spann", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Anthony Smith and Ryan Spann are scheduled to fight on August 26th, 2023 at a UFC event in Singapore.  If Anthony Smith wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Ryan Spann wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-20", "date_close": "2023-08-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-20\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.4602225425198144], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.321305802410024], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.34637737333426627], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.3484382561604993], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.3510846055959587], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.8700000000000001], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.8731715674684551], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.888361644999945], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.94], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9466075026766794], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.953825865931655], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9767352672288171], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9982638599156348], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.9999053839078756]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Arsenal beat Burnley during regular time on Sat, Nov 11, 2023? - Premier League", "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-arsenal-beat-burnley-during-re", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "\u26bd Arsenal vs Burnley\n\n\ud83d\udcc5 Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 \u23f0 Start Time (UTC): 15:00\n\n\ud83c\udfc6 Competition: Premier League\n\n\ud83d\udd11 Market Resolution:\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n- Arsenal has more goals\n\nThis market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n- Both teams have an equal number of goals\n- Burnley has more goals\n\n(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)\n\n\ud83d\udd50 Market Closing Time:\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.", "date_begin": "2023-11-07", "date_close": "2023-11-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-07\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.8499999999999996], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.9022182880655196], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6197776671944656], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6322045821504522], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6322045821504522], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6322045821504522], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.640550566001639], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6853898376649454], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6940868579905395], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6940868579905395], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.6940868579905395], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7247843228837568], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7286788393224135], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7401108397177226], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7401108397177226], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7401108397177226], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.748243434516014], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7551054355844012], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7559048173261587], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.763573500626467], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7668913906080569], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7748640930479431], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7748675448925598], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7785758810887787], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7785758810887787], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7785758810887787], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.78], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7807415518439333], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.792480840494606], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8054491574244605], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8064747691877314], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8072541442403424], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8113220939111653], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8227860706880257], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.828144766755461], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.828144766755461], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.828144766755461], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8292078044626924], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8315272505273873], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8539834902075794], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8571280693264536], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8600000000000002], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8600000000000002], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8600000000000002], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8627816735012802], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.866622921271132], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8697835831333316], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.87649111263756], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8800887364152121], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9020173337981726], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9020173337981726], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9020173337981726], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.902117929391148], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.91], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9184354261272353], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9184354261272353], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9184354261272353], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9194696546495377], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9194696546495377], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9194696546495377], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9205688126507761], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9211966331853402], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9219234117416479], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9219234117416479], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9219234117416479], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9245145391393648], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.92622963983544], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.92622963983544], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.92622963983544], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.93], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9307591126869295], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9335351885348021], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9342078418026118], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9344586637643233], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9344586637643233], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9344586637643233], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9350013146136131], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9350013146136131], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9350013146136131], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9368293271186378], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9441377845797069], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9441377845797069], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9441377845797069], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9443961921456672], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9670323321070378], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9753221564941041], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9753221564941041], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9753221564941041], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9754125674228903], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9754125674228903], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9754125674228903], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9785247404275279], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9786297918662289], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9807539414747751], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9807539414747752], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9808304155865316], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.983715981321088], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.983715981321088], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9871318349512231], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9882347920572532], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9886909318491852], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.988704248640514], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9894304741609498], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9904768586079236], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9929011483647695], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9943925988933502], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9961120866965418], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9976291867153875], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9978797410106212], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9987215072629548], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9990210377883206], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9992121547879196], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9993439743873099], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9994400068224075], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9994401803265586], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9994401803265586], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9994401803265586], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9994402542999149]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Tesla Vehicle deliveries Q4 2023 exceed 500,000?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/will-tesla-vehicle-deliveries-q4-20", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Last five quarters:\n\nQ3 2022: 343820\n\nQ4 2022: 405278\n\nQ1 2023: 422875\n\nQ2 2023: 466140\n\nQ3 2023: 435059.\n\nThe equivalent press release for Q4 2023 will be used but if not available, I may wait for Q4 financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included.\n\nBackground\n\nPrices have been reduced presumably to stimulate demand, but is production also being throttled according to demand? Elon Musk seems to have suggested it is pretty much full pace production and they can generate enough demand by cutting prices. Freemont and Shanghai may well be at or near production capacity limits but Berlin and Texas are ramping up recently reaching 5000 per week production rates. The latest official guidance is\n\n\"For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year.\"\n\nHaving produced 1350996 in the first three quarters 1.8m requires production of 449k.\n\nHowever, at 2022 Q4 earnings there were some suggestions that 2 million may not be impossible. 1.8 million is only 450k per quarter and they have managed near 440k in 2 quarters to March 2023 and near 480k in Q2 2023 so does practically no growth or even reductions with two factories ramping up make any sense? So one line of reasoning queried whether the 1.8 million figure was a well sandbagged number or whether demand causing production to be throttled back?\n\nAbove may have failed to account for other explanations: Q2 Earning call suggested there would be production shutdowns but it isn't clear to what extent these were for upgrading production speed compared to other things like retool for Highland upgrade. While there were shutdowns, did this fully account for lower production or were there also speed reduction?", "date_begin": "2023-11-28", "date_close": "2024-01-02", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-28\", 0.30769230769230776], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3102591952819723], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.32470995523198365], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.32470995523198365], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4215960242984675], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.62], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.6671953272412936], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.704952805388341], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.72], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.7503938952046043], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.5348799471841068], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.5350649493016328], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.5589114610712987], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.5693287416108014], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.5700000000000001], 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[\"2023-12-08\", 0.1309581933021199], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.1309581933021199], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.1309581933021199], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.1362693964152412], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.1362693964152412], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.1362693964152412], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.13628851711125833], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.13628851711125833], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.13628851711125833], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.1373627535174883], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.13799785544345505], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.138519346731989], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.138519346731989], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.138519346731989], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.14222653668500612], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.14659729670596852], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.14659729670596852], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.14659729670596852], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.1487546111270354]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Menendez announce resignation by end of year?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-menendez-announce-resignation", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Bob Menendez announces he is resigning from his position as United States Senator from New Jersey immediately or at a point before his present term is set to expire between September 22 and December 31, 2023 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-09-26", "date_close": "2023-12-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-26\", 0.3408462434875406], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.36971842354912765], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.42385016119130914], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.4349293155873444], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.31491896105628825], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.5556688345490639], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.31190631815606046], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.31340764874989474], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.3300000000000002], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.3479968714405485], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.26131477670587316], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.27411892957199074], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.27652173287850695], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.2502910335827618], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1600000000000001], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1682853068667191], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.19278649829669023], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.23160293914490993], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.09200235086212653], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.13969684269282795], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.17000000000000018], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.18328403989444733], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.1980074734356715], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.18279626887909808], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1297620928870351], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.11053909512040722], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.06363726143034626], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.07410056857360726], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.05348867836412738], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.0569129477758244], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.04319084777105378], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.009173360867046282], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.00038264400202527623]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Marlon Vera beat Pedro Munhoz at UFC 292?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-marlon-vera-beat-pedro-munhoz", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz are scheduled to fight on August 19th, 2023 at UFC 292 in Boston, USA. If Marlon Vera wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Pedro Munhoz wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-06", "date_close": "2023-08-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-07\", 0.5564229950319374], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.6144671157349817], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5337205116138342], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-08-19\", 0.5823628313161007], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.4938188645478937], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5346123209317147], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.5905016936763773], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6284541839581895], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6344191564005678], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.64], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6487396832901218], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6558749803692677], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6580493591825309], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.66], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6678382226844672], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.67], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.67], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.67], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6763835723707696], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.68], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.6898201500603234], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.7054192464897975], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.7054192464897975], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.7054192464897975], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.7084962547513994], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.7192628759038707], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.72], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.7236043129258056], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.7236043129258056], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.7236043129258056], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.83], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9599999999999999], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9663161704644999], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9855100361046188], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9876870971479507], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9876870971479507], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9876870971479507], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9891625439183495], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9905811415694225], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9905811415694225], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9905811415694225], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9926828370857405], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9998375616274826], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.9999722199526309]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will July 6th be the hottest day for a week (until Jul 12 2023)?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PC/will-july-6th-be-the-hottest-day-fo", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "July 6th Obs Temp was 17.23\u00b0C. Includes Jul 7 - Jul 12\n\nResolves NO if a day has a temperature above 17.23\u00b0C according to https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/", "date_begin": "2023-07-07", "date_close": "2023-07-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-07\", 0.3377951294797949], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.35314992961098646], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.3744670380533372], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.38757141160366915], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.4786841807432516], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.5197201175906839], [\"2023-07-07\", 0.5531587675639404], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.37148062205616933], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.3820826827551462], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.3894962582133446], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.4099999999999997], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.41794793038089223], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.42392613193561096], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.42956003443292445], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.42999999999999994], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.42999999999999994], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.42999999999999994], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.43000000000000016], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.43000000000000016], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.43000000000000016], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.43854043677628296], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.4411344372170037], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.4470088737581515], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.4493090756562368], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.45900943277142464], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.45933901090088447], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.4597429686986496], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.4629421884629671], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.4799999999999998], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.4870316906676807], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.520511341151913], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5263837242381302], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5290908851916423], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5311637624899315], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5408162065751501], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.55], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.55], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.55], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5556545360246913], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.558587522522045], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5611908964879829], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5626734341440195], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5831832293612168], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.5975472786225396], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.6024683465109791], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.6102960432623317], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.592122701543754], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.5980538798891659], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.6095849406256156], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.6501874469158763], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.6777027257761892], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.6931077521568217], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.6942483256725651], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7074521797112955], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7074521797112955], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.71], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.713231707246543], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7139532614876933], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7141841532357825], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7165089259203172], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7216124675126442], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7216327455214172], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7223929050324431], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.728062066369416], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7412692201814709], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7492183861275649], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7517090096355611], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.7528487758353267], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.77], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.774349486945539], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.8], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.82], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.8306698991465816], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.8462141130262989], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.8829885291055626], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.8853424953754049], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.8853424953754049], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9000000000000001], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9006559508661142], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9023820169800585], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9055781028156107], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9151434617905109], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9151434617905109], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9151434617905109], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9187501963088684], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9193710077002335], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9269047339259514], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9269047339259514], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9269047339259514], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9269047339259514], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9314157043045383], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9341683275133841], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.939166383536021], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.939166383536021], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.939632339120917], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9418392465255803], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9420203071048953], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9422705372591099], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9424281478509172], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9436716001364022], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9444240833606861], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9456691528491394], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9461437256401899], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9462342583458944], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9492930699732218], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9495137434833684], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9495137434833684], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9495137434833684], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9646796833120168], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9646796833120169], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9653754325925964], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.9665157871968321], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.966965025365884], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9591077648310485], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9591077648310485], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9591077648310485], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.96], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.963243841900823], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9637681595458222], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9664248318679426], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.9699999999999999], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.97], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.97], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9790292433797779], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9791609955953667], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9791609955953667], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9791609955953667], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9795097859161301], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.979641388453009], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9796413884530091], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9796553058017016], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9796553058017016], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9796553058017016], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.9796728256133375], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.980254706351133], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.99], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.9901757721908397], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.9944581101916006], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.994813869166183], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.9948251821664763], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.9948257630924537], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.9951530825302518], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.9990390874751797], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.9990454988731148], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.9990726584459625], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.9990887293224584]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will a hurricane hit New York / New Jersey this year?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-a-hurricane-hit-new-york-new-j-8bd1096852ed", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Will a named hurricane hit New York and/or New Jersey this 2023 hurricane season? It still has to be a hurricane when it makes landfall.", "date_begin": "2023-08-06", "date_close": "2023-12-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-06\", 0.10952081794375737], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.1391588020374312], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.14636560318030872], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.16999999999999993], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.18740793527585975], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.40186465198521143], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.4528570304116935], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.10036618093363468], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.10952081794375731], [\"2023-08-07\", 0.10952081794375731], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.11532468146390715], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12999999999999992], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12999999999999992], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.12999999999999992], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.12999999999999998], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.14906316214819004], [\"2023-08-25\", 0.11731275547870847], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.10665609376736385], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.09309677572241563], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.102547180508752], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.10789338576166409], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.08720425098067466], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.07259622714106553], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.07245077107418937], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.09181419962231493], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.11405848422131916], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.052501590319305215], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.05829232369877041], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.07000000000000006], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.07519354200753287], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.07999999999999984], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.07999999999999984], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.07999999999999984], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.08999999999999998], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.10826496650018115], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.14094743205794735], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.045470056116684074], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.0511565296785235], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.03532968322463487], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.03883862749348418], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.017048512640646815], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.017935480949335707], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.028850324311314866], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.022026194186578123], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.020767230590347855], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.020000000000000018], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.01860238528177579], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.01894190712326208], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.030877417549443818], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.030950462784305882], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.03355526513640066], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.044521575404054665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.044521575404054665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.044521575404054665], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.049792834528481704], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.049970611801553204], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.05657795398811497], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.05657795398811497], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.05657795398811497], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.017018902473716367], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.01125756803003576], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.011268261414969512], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.011633509114243663], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.014115027468234594], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.014285139629651061], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.016093914665735357], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.022568225772471247], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.030000000000000113], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.030000000000000113], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.030000000000000113], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.010744470277954199], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.010751033820673573], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.011080633518045786], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.008248247562127612], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.008485005893096987], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0008684488119006762], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0008684488119006762], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0008684488119006762], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.006215270693626908]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Cory Sandhagen beat Rob Font?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-cory-sandhagen-beat-rob-font", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font are scheduled to fight on August 5th, 2023 at a UFC event in Nashville, Tennessee.  If Cory Sandhagen wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Rob Font wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-08-01", "date_close": "2023-08-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-01\", 0.6902337700262574], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.7191011235955056], [\"2023-08-03\", 0.7432584855042759], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.7004814031611164], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.7138718884102241], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.6327744424548032], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.6800000000000004], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.695616978714408], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7037068766510164], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7060568018706194], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7154776121026996], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7200000000000002], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7303563729782065], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7358112292999862], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7375678952438837], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7509309608488579], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7527743529184695], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7553982369211649], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.765203308545742], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7666698073611148], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7858479572919899], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.7970105391511775], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8006874022803881], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8068779984108464], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8072912724993965], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8167795913771173], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8255542559966269], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.833684761694254], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.841232554713371], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8482520796006388], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.85], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8547916809576773], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8608943798612984], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8782786791704625], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8878823566456955], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.8900000000000002], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9152471499023663], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9580736355781102], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9648944617285852], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9681173078488204], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9891588565972325], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9962459588919959], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9994343392340058], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.9998985686108763]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-8-oct-29-will-the-denver-b", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Empower Field at Mile High at 13:25 PDT on October 29, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-13\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.36544475130698595], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.516137665893893], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.3592912716791376], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2975109460099375], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.32338479198074066], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.1566379444815929], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.1900000000000002], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.2434576148430065], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.25999999999999984], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.25999999999999984], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.25999999999999984], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.1606470758359535], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.1819277233045807], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.07999999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.12999999999999992], 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0.21], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.21], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.21220571134040436], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22328711911662746], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23454833021776655], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2459255551494067], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2572393335130606], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.28209800342718716], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.28283227848101283], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.28871656896271497], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.29355569026565975], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2960083120068344], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3036992389619668], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.30999999999999983], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3110515532660566], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3152709359605914], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.32708605199829904], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.32999999999999996], 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0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3636107664652163], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3667993383156979], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3667993383156979], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3667993383156979], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36689973671234094], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36689973671234094], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36689973671234094], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36867816596741665], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3699999999999996], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3699999999999998], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3699999999999998], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3699999999999998], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.37000000000000005], 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match and advances and NO if England do. A draw is not possible. 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A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.4836109618484686], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.5200000000000002], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.5400932145128466], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6492171667844912], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6798749967605928], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.6097727733513215], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.67], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.67], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.67], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7067543201427142], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.689679979079098], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6896799790790984], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6896799790790984], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6896799790790984], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6896799790790984], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6896799790790984], [\"2023-10-25\", 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A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-12\", 0.5475113122171945], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.6069021962245458], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.55267070832003], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.761832701480178], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.6607842024538619], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.6654058590333531], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.7093067762037741], [\"2023-10-25\", 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"resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, after July 10 before September 1. Examples of such changes may include a military coup, political impeachment, a popular uprising, or a foreign invasion that results in the overthrow or dissolution of the government.\n\nThe question will also be considered resolved positively if a sitting prime minister or president dissolves the government and calls for new elections due to internal political upheaval or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, after July 10 before September 1.\n\nThe question will be considered resolved negatively if there is no significant and involuntary change in the government of any country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances between July 10 and September 1. If there are minor changes, such as a reshuffle of cabinet members or a change in prime minister or president that does not result in a significant change in government policy or structure, the question will still be considered resolved negatively.", "date_begin": "2023-07-10", "date_close": "2023-07-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-10\", 0.3499999999999999], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.39999999999999997], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.4257378572679968], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.434858236214994], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.45490072712801105], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.5], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-07-13\", 0.44000000000000006], 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"https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-18-jan-5-will-the-detroit", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Ford Field at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.6875772377693166], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.7251179227441066], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.7532932586480875], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9422245383253968], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9614279264301034], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9769203715347593], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9946509605026983], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.7428536385078793], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.6551363748988276], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.71], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.6241123383253205], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.65], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.679301468384309], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.68], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.5969655831404139], 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Currently the Green Party is still ahead. \nCan the AFD catch up until October?", "date_begin": "2023-07-27", "date_close": "2023-10-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-27\", 0.23351637810468184], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.33], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.3767228448763544], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.39840360467981406], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.42], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.43704051932793775], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.44585422866708146], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.5990629030722116], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.6282527881040891], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.6923076923076924], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.34709307045683135], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.3619192227839431], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.41453710235751556], [\"2023-08-09\", 0.3844370748899111], 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "date_begin": "2023-07-20", "date_close": "2023-07-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-20\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.6545024057548345], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.7066998310988054], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6918828231124389], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.6944638626357157], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.7351526765868233], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.7367007171747064], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.7630826945632722], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.8275015784206308], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.82], [\"2023-07-29\", 0.855501733208106], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9713053965493461], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9871253198459884], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9878827512823168], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9878827512823168], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9878827512823168], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9926450060392595], [\"2023-07-31\", 0.9998149806966569]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will George Santos serve a full term in office?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/sterlingbaldwin/will-george-santos-serve-a-full-ter", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Will the republican representitive George Santos serve out a full term in office, or will he be forced to leave office through a resignation, expulsion, or conviction?", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-12-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.28315995110099346], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.33000000000000007], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.33000000000000007], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.33000000000000007], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.36671935875340556], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.44000000000000006], 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A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5498697040655007], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.4917816893180097], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5454859198334362], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5454859198334362], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5454859198334362], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.5334901288871214], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.4032173077857497], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.43000000000000016], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.52], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.52], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.52], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.5504412895103336], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.45000000000000023], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.45000000000000023], 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"url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-15-dec-17-will-the-buffalo", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Highmark Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 17, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.5118846773189577], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.5118846773189577], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.5118846773189577], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4125474282845887], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.5454482927035041], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.5454482927035045], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.5454482927035045], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5789565551903441], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.5500000000000003], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.5500000000000003], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.5500000000000003], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.5700000000000004], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.5700000000000004], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.5700000000000004], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.5700000000000004], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.5700000000000004], 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0.9042120421178709], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9532958490457155], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9661251687155468], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9688815400784085], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9702159238140373], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9725676633285015], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9752895667306056], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9948433428468175], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9948433428468175], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9948433428468175], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9993922331091076]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Carolina Panthers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-13-dec-3-will-the-tampa-ba", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Raymond James Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 3, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.6621621621621621], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.47000000000000014], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.49000000000000016], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.49999999999999967], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.49999999999999967], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.49999999999999967], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5299999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5762915168087525], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.6000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.62], 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If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game.", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.5475113122171945], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4883874034535349], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.38674541885659985], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.42000000000000015], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4569258909025796], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.46483296972213867], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.5199999999999997], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.5199999999999997], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.5199999999999997], [\"2023-10-27\", 0.5752405560180714], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5199999999999995], 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0.9251551506897568], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.925164948027543], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.9251789445805945], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.9220356360581279], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.9228959957412697], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.9244992886911152], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.9249773531330302], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.925234113457833], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.9276557004521571], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.9355293761724648], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.935806339815027], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.9430904910987951], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.9359244344129359], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.936119863749481], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.9361985512586638], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.9374564096679836], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.9381255704545456], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9378467082702102], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9380307809729844], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9405474373404904], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9407182410572458], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9408033328793403], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9393619905723697], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9401842416545888], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.9080570256745983], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.9091126756878726], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.9240643746095384], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.9439864483138045], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.9508721265825918], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9459536405486189], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9532564845671145], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9600868372155035], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9609379330657397], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.9610208715640608], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.9672786107235746], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.9673398187726028], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9670156091055468], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.9670774798387398], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.9650068083724199], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.9676854758160383], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.9677450543499092], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.9677509852507072], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.9630983616577038], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.9654626528803746], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.9654690515746428], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.9786868581343149], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.9789737630706703], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.9753670204160775], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.9757341633536946], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.978593231982295], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9765927880830708], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.9769184604812238], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9781558099127855], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9788744424557958], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.9801933816063131], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9812650674649794], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9824528847288507], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9842123667468997], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9870748216080895], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.9870760282998101]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 7 (Oct 19): Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Jacksonville Jaguars?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-7-oct-19-will-the-new-orle", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Caesars Superdome at 17:15 PDT on October 19, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.3940731399747794], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4803996925441968], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.2932426214704866], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3300000000000002], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.34366085761189846], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.44000000000000017], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4600000000000003], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4600000000000003], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4600000000000003], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.4600000000000003], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.46000000000000024], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.00010853490103966798], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.0002120661041382565], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.006017173475447985], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.006199660565550754], 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0.09717374893799459], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.09717374893799459], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.09717374893799459], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10000000000000003], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10000000000000006], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10000000000000006], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10000000000000006], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10000000000000006], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10283454848529018], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10283454848529018], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10283454848529018], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10542811975170259], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10542811975170259], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10542811975170259], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.10648809665171831], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.11426554068304627], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.11999999999999993], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.11999999999999998], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12501935496509836], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12501935496509836], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.12501935496509836], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1318739774727943], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.13659922484961473], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.14065231203145717], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1424316963689402], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.15000000000000013], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.15000000000000013], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.15000000000000013], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.15427306813192954], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1571783728803058], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16315355521206887], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16315355521206887], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16315355521206887], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16662432883598768], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1683363268723651], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1683363268723651], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1683363268723651], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.16999999999999998], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1700000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1720455493105297], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1720455493105297], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1720455493105297], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.17999999999999988], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.18998267732023474], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.19000000000000003], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.19142300239912796], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.20598842117159416], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.20791250617417303], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.20873216617940246], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.21679329998338515], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.21679329998338515], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.21679329998338515], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.22000000000000006], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.24095316497326583], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.24620773639110097], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.24620773639110097], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.24620773639110097], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.26], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2691640271154597], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2779715582380041], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2779715582380041], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2779715582380041], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2976950356812227], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3140534903848671], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.32401087418856933], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3372150444839525], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3372150444839525], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3372150444839525], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.34999999999999964], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.34999999999999964], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.34999999999999964], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3500179031932548], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.35866781822339505], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36912980337658724], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36912980337658724], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36912980337658724], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.381560407102921], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.381560407102921], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.381560407102921], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.39831491588684764], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.39831491588684764], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.39831491588684764], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.39999999999999997], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.41787599279881116], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.421149767307347], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4379184076294301], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4379184076294301], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4379184076294301], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4593480845786604], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.49820425026859355], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.49820425026859355], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.49820425026859355], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.553409610242309]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Los Angeles Rams?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-baltimo", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5901639344262293], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6686310503859767], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7066616993466897], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7192733168776794], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7399999999999998], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7602764757030308], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7674197780283867], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7718967043031617], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.7631035282624747], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.7718967043031617], [\"2023-11-15\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-11-15\", 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[\"2023-12-10\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.38999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41000000000000003], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4199999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.43], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45000000000000007], 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"resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at State Farm Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-08", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.35697060659699253], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2727919889149037], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3354687621417617], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.31224470712693014], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.4029479709178116], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.35598285505284594], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.4300000000000002], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.4517920825740751], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.22000000000000014], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.22000000000000014], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.22944818225758967], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.23000000000000007], [\"2024-01-07\", 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A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-16", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.61], 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A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-11-14", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-14", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-20\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7416362644318857], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7708276856628481], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.8292537340237893], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8044352000083062], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7759473660826234], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7759473660826234], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7759473660826234], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.7651747443032422], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.7651747443032422], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.7651747443032422], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.7651747443032422], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.7651747443032422], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.7651747443032422], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.7651747443032422], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.79], [\"2023-11-13\", 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29, 2023", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-08-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.13310807955018486], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.25582827081635817], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.07805664191591909], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.08957965814520785], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.09261556555561307], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.10917295067981587], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.11997921692413575], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.12554340857679722], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.1399999999999999], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.15468225774331867], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.16277582289147918], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.00043018723208110933], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0006327246095382559], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0010812065168171875], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0028645997803774205], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.004028757905352462], [\"2023-08-29\", 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0.1794521692304596], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.1810106793104132], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.18420360183977005], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.18823647594302742], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.18823647594302742], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.18823647594302742], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.1914340104880414], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.19145320566626273], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.1942560926970477], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.1981467787978546], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.20031829907742252], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2014877904635893], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.20153978195779162], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.20159899045000576], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2049328884224622], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.21272253305277342], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.21272253305277342], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.21272253305277342], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.21313479963316734], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.214977897694512], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.21839706187752553], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22023659745630553], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22029211706779683], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22029211706779683], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22029211706779683], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22173761579996898], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22575889402279184], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22893648110891351], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22893648110891351], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22893648110891351], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.22957444525488013], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2320213410398], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2320213410398], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2320213410398], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.23944769005579739], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2394517003852093], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.24141945722736516], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2439730319389291], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2439730319389291], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2439730319389291], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.24400248643354186], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.24835063525863846], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.24888584457820478], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.24888584457820478], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.24888584457820478], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2548000994646653], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2695378200300621], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2695378200300621], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2695378200300621], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2700000000000002], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2749674691209181], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.28077662624472455], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.28077662624472455], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.28077662624472455], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2828730834710007], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2828730834710007], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.2828730834710007], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.3316046656718618]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will a new F-Zero game be released before 2027?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-a-new-fzero-game-be-released-b", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-Zero\n\nThere have been six mainline F-Zero games released, with the first released in 1990 and the most recent in 2004.\n\nIf a new F-Zero game, with \"F-Zero\" in the title, published and/or developed by Nintendo, is released before 1st January, 2027, in any timezone, this question will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2023-09-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Arts & Recreation", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-12\", 0.3717472118959108], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.4436876720030141], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.4772480065205391], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.40562871440211523], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.527458620995439], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6117999740911045], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.7617116493899804], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.6989116276075098], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.7290907446149034], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.75], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.7665041349634474], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.74], [\"2023-09-12\", 0.7546947647009411], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.78], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.7905746355923372], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.8], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.8170719473012088], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.9991159490430013], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.996665756968216], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.9969968607996997], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.9991174340314904], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.9997619309032605]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-Zero\"]"}, {"question": "Will Fabiano Caruana win the US Chess Championship?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/benshindel/will-fabiano-caruana-win-the-us-che", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves positively if Fabiano Caruana repeats as the 2023 US Chess Champion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Chess_Championship This tournament will take place between October 5-18, 2023. https://www.uschesschamps.com/2023-us-championships/overview This market may close or resolve early if Caruana clinches the title with rounds to spare, if he is mathematically eliminated, or if he withdraws from the tournament.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-10-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-20\", 0.3509264458169569], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.35669250253022683], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.36999999999999994], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.19982587589006648], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3086199927515325], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3900000000000002], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3900000000000002], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3900000000000002], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.4031782596287204], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.2879453571940283], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3007006650180106], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.28507594634671857], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.27199893007761405], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.2984724986741564], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.3800000000000002], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.3800000000000002], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.3800000000000002], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4053848948765529], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4064737987806059], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4076514606160525], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.3855288689803034], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.403947343325189], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4463134751518766], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4668387938348831], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4704393290677943], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4903717523046826], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5979027443542652], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5151952850548199], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5549995274782903], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5601430701109227], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5708231043597448], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6000000000000002], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6255832402600032], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6400000000000003], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6400000000000003], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6400000000000003], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6658574733383035], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6738019395848778], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7099907074830675], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7253008511896558], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7632225032398631], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7632225032398631], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7632225032398631], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7466850632245493], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.74787969274024], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.754797760526337], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7723354023828757], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7827190971539422], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7831972504048941], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.7869519779716656], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.79199403329259], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7879934972130564], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8108296797024317], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8138116270945963], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8209753450835753], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8237249817849681], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8622970089765855], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8674127492032135], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8849068214704578], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.8640862440810186], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9212607679326774], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9282108730186756], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9282108730186756], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9282108730186756], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9292892411780154], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9351533879305186], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9381384194612944], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9455220859282502], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9465864091741047], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9468925928657927], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9488487673376769], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9503576886248203], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9503576886248203], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9503576886248203], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9504264406984624], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9524307185281607], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9524307185281607], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9524307185281607], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9535992196130603], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9563073630503652], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9564595022147397], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9672923955188438], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9767503931436528], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.983723243596773], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9871454443490915], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9875039533334851], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.987563283403066], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.9879031985512217], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9878462725585537], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9945194455831151], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9951126054280182], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9952906866332651], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9963165427463326], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9967367305543241], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9967665919107437], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9969371616043353], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9972605429104117], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9974989429036151], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9975026112242651], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9982744141988856], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9988917260691869], [\"2023-10-17\", 0.9988935490701203], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.9988940737031953]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Chess_Championship\", \"https://www.uschesschamps.com/2023-us-championships/overview\"]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-9-nov-5-will-the-kansas-ci", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Deutsche Bank Park at 06:30 PST on November 5, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-11-05", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-05", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.8705849986103814], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.6792091328341897], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.7414644707788788], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.7600000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.8154664003507988], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5068471222505493], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.54396334517882], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5458489247334319], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5600000000000003], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5600000000000003], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5600000000000003], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.5623804729420538], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.6099999999999998], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.6099999999999998], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.6099999999999998], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5400000000000007], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5400000000000007], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5400000000000007], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5400000000000007], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5400000000000007], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5400000000000007], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5633973211570994], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5900000000000002], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5253957556080736], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.5985848218118826], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.4738086489123017], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.502722284396866], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5038558747561055], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5200000000000002], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5200000000000002], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5200000000000002], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5202591551203], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5363077086486647], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5400000000000007], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.5400000000000007], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5300000000000001], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5439288001619669], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5480646656468158], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5535624960839002], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5573468385935205], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5627469476182977], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.58], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.5995128532425668], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.6209618987277981], 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A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7071458340596403], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.6278839235243426], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.6309978730192558], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.6653287289452073], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.6653287289452073], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.6653287289452073], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.59752141935291], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.61], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.7274195628916844], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.6999999999999993], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.7099999999999997], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-11-27\", 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A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5033444441958792], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.4504836007675414], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1986430770779535], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45048360076754146], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.6281376227047073], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.651258231503855], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6153499631007561], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5720495259603012], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5996947638138612], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.6194112951782014], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.6350712512991714], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.6350712512991715], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.6350712512991715], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.6350712512991716], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.6350712512991716], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.6350712512991716], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.6350712512991716], 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end of the week?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wilkess/will-moscow-be-hit-by-another-drone", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "By 'another building', it refers to any building in Moscow.\n\nThe week ends 12am Monday 07th Moscow time.", "date_begin": "2023-08-01", "date_close": "2023-08-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-01\", 0.3776907075557327], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.41928378874883704], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.42720896367685623], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.4299999999999999], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.4299999999999999], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.4299999999999999], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.4344021378927761], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.4486335095169719], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2023-08-01\", 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A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4803996925441968], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.4168628469025602], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.4778675249976384], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.4778675249976385], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.4778675249976385], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.4778675249976385], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.4778675249976385], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.46], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4778675249976385], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.4778675249976385], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5000761467542285], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5077531556199288], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.000898977095372749], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0009168991892779321], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0009335632994720374], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0009488587541343615], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0016481858677607657], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.0018086491997818398], 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From 2014 onwards, Alonso has won eight podiums, six of which have been this year, which is why his fans believe this could be the year he wins his 33rd race. There are 10 races left of the 24 races to be held this year.", "date_begin": "2023-08-20", "date_close": "2023-11-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-20\", 0.2159319434664043], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.1494168466921101], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.14968101654698948], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.15473130180839975], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.17000000000000007], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.17373798491647063], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.19000000000000006], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.1200810388123624], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.1400000000000001], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.06269094083977783], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.21999999999999983], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.21999999999999983], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.21999999999999983], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2837084276335551], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2837084276335551], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2837084276335551], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.30568307454247046], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.41678413681316], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.46], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.56], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.56], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.56], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.5650371467729106], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.6], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.9894872246813906], [\"2023-08-23\", 0.9925666565666974], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.05956103411391171], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.07451027823099343], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.10999999999999989], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.10999999999999989], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.10999999999999989], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.11999999999999997], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.11999999999999997], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.11999999999999997], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.12000000000000008], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.12000000000000008], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.12000000000000008], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.15842741924320047], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.16252438052385965], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.1726742905974259], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.1728010349694122], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.17280103496941226], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.1773186315887764], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.33], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.3689514665306791], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.11672101542108272], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.13647677403877728], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1382401601137095], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.0905910230110173], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.10999999999999989], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.11799477485836346], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.11999999999999983], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.12549025577018375], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.19352647953311292], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.14067281724325517], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.06717254016051968], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.11000000000000001], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.11000000000000001], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.11000000000000001], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.1192662397816497], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.05134002422471951], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.05134002422471951], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.05134002422471951], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.05582484543288432], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.05582484543288432], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.05582484543288432], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.025919795925463392], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.025919795925463392], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.025919795925463392], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.02723471373443124], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.027367719176684124], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.03248356217815864], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.032465723116813866], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.01976747822788318], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0197898374292182], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0197898374292182], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.0197898374292182], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.020553874973075915], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.019707657796177853], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.01971499237809853], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0012204149490947626], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0015154424386094815], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.0027561117376534872], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.009010415173838876], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.013809666607275587], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.01381764553417345], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.014217086211822735]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Barcelona beat Celta Vigo during regular time on Sat, Sep 23, 2023? - La Liga", "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-barcelona-beat-celta-vigo-duri", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "\u26bd Barcelona vs Celta Vigo\n\n\ud83d\udcc5 Date: Saturday, September 23, 2023 \u23f0 Start Time (UTC): 16:30\n\n\ud83c\udfc6 Competition: La Liga\n\n\ud83d\udd11 Market Resolution:\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n\n    Barcelona has more goals\n\nThis market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n\n    Both teams have an equal number of goals\n\n    Celta Vigo has more goals\n\n(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)\n\n\ud83d\udd50 Market Closing Time:\n\nThis market is scheduled to close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff. However, this market may resolve BEFORE the closing time once the resolution criteria is met.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-09-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7400000000000004], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7634780509671663], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.7999999999999995], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.8], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.777162746738065], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.82], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.8301426935665627], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.0008138978853932385], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.00947107834920604], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.00947107834920604], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.00947107834920604], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.011860531032498766], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.011860531032498766], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.011860531032498766], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.029999999999999992], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.09999999999999996], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.09999999999999996], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.09999999999999996], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.12708480062407207], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.1639068953308387], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.16506682616709067], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.19], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.19], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.19], 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0.7702183432975336], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8158549607395699], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.84], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8409581762147423], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8492356487003984], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8568976264970197], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.88], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9061750407236645], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.93], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9497725681029147], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9727711842004859], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9962967633289116], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9962967633289116], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9962967633289116], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.997146231607113], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9980261514242923], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9981147903835209], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.998840315767916], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9988403412628951], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9990649801963088], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9990653069019743], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9994794805309944], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.9994794805309944]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-6-oct-15-will-the-chicago", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Soldier Field at 10:00 PDT on October 15, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-12\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.342614656335661], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.36000000000000015], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.37], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.38999999999999985], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.38999999999999985], [\"2023-10-11\", 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A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5475113122171945], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.62], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6331129728942879], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6581468985016986], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.6857669046469708], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8299999999999998], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8750889679424816], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8985486414935836], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8912478185529344], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.44034579878760727], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.4700000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5400000000000001], 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"https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-yahya-sinwar-cease-t", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Yahya Sinwar has either stepped down or been replaced as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip, been captured by Israel, or that he has died. The question will resolve as No if he continuously holds his position or if there is no reporting indicating a change in status.", "date_begin": "2023-10-11", "date_close": "2024-01-02", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-02", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.39068013893297404], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.46047694396300737], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5475113122171945], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.6269805330307804], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6540243795925075], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5994282895012139], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5994282895012139], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5994282895012139], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4505578558544936], [\"2023-10-30\", 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A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.6700000000000003], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.6700000000000003], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.6700000000000003], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.6700000000000003], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.7102983326009085], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.8009055765094002], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.86], 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0.844837086030002], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.844837086030002], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.844837086030002], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8545412302129598], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8603378425704907], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8689504172729241], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8718962951176589], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8720882926892326], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8720882926892326], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8720882926892326], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.8799999999999998], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.9077384438373336], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.9095465742696528], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.9169745682800724], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.9220654337836776], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.9227850063694966]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-adobe-acquire-figma-by-the-end-db5b2af939a0", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an agreement to purchase Figma for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal.\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe no longer lists XD in its product lineup and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store.\n\nResolves YES on the date of a press release or similar evidence (SEC filings) announcing the acquisition has been completed, NO on January 1 2025 or if Adobe or Figma announces that the deal is off.", "date_begin": "2023-08-12", "date_close": "2023-12-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-12\", 0.31947154170968517], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.36], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.40219337205270983], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.4285382367336688], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.43149008343169115], [\"2023-08-12\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.39139881310910757], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-08-15\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.45999999999999985], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.45999999999999985], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.45999999999999985], [\"2023-08-17\", 0.4903367177220699], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.38864683402139427], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.38373253027488263], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5937143510743703], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5937143510743703], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5937143510743703], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6178343038587131], [\"2023-11-14\", 0.4328228117942092], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.585463101725398], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.6909967154819003], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.5545019405498569], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.3503991669590405], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.3503991669590405], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.3503991669590405], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.3503991669590405], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.5337817113652793], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.40000000000000024], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.34886667370049046], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.4000000000000003], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.3603315438621235], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.37171078461168716], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.3751838088332195], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.0005157739362656696], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.020010731804582585], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.032344357543970394], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.0358148262742406], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.06822341966952336], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.07843379584037868], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.29766741092361637], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.31999999999999984]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Arizona Cardinals?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-7-oct-22-will-the-seattle", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Lumen Field at 13:05 PDT on October 22, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.5475113122171945], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.7654915593030782], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7289254736478024], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7350085206118944], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7366621067031462], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7384673884060691], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7444522543424286], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7444522543424286], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7444522543424286], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7514957490000889], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.76], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.76], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.76], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7701298701298703], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7701298701298703], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7701298701298703], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7745923866086007], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.7842818885354833], 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[\"2023-10-22\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8122927934201035], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8133937854999751], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8166914631593923], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.81785944551902], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.81785944551902], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.81785944551902], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8192019748736057], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8254954155575274], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8285434298113515], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8285434298113515], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8285434298113515], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8305555555555555], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8305555555555555], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8305555555555555], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8333818074723544], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8371794871794872], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8398305477653455], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8424125884129158], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8436593810005123], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8481152993348114], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8481152993348114], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8481152993348114], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8481152993348117], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.8523869333501218], 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0.9734482664710509], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9897649461927096], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.991000103285591], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9962114554996406], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.999800311384735]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 15 (Dec 14): Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Pittsburgh Steelers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-15-dec-14-will-the-indiana", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 16, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.5499999999999998], 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0.9138263776047525], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.943851402667153], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9518457921643909], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.97], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.97], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.97], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9797939319311801], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9829411309448554], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9864108898246174], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9901147466305364], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.997003915050806], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.997003915050806], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.997003915050806], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9977207329376563], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9997876549593184]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Carolina Panthers beat the Houston Texans?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-8-oct-29-will-the-carolina", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Bank of America Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 29, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.3940731399747794], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4803996925441968], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.3012338012395725], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.24829573328294444], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.2700000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2699999999999998], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.34000000000000025], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.34000000000000025], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.34000000000000025], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.34000000000000025], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.3600000000000003], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.3600000000000003], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.3600000000000003], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.3600000000000003], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.40833740822780695], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.4006204761626828], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22999999999999982], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23059500953550038], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2319052206944582], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23317368306803266], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23317368306803266], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23317368306803266], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2336197636949517], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2365502226054533], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2365502226054533], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2365502226054533], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.24000000000000016], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2407469173383994], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.24393086081848558], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2442049545479672], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.25531609838228736], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.25605593226803003], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2682254507310179], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2685910338815834], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2699999999999998], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.28045379131100834], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2828322784810126], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2927216230824876], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.29415848371540687], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.30133184876594976], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.30365296803652964], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.30365296803652964], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.30501026787785285], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3054969845154909], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.30828698225713513], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.30828698225713513], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.30828698225713513], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.312667094578135], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3133988714865565], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3133988714865565], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3133988714865565], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31527093596059097], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31527093596059097], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31527093596059097], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31683378814613855], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31863277842371174], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31863277842371174], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.31863277842371174], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3239921223429919], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.32649156335102125], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.33184789817936733], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3376696832579186], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3376696832579186], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3376696832579186], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.34281716417910424], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3440622714948833], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.34812409812409806], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.34812409812409806], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.34812409812409806], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35000000000000014], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35218349405872956], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3553651214830277], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3553651214830277], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3553651214830277], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35622788785187676], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3571640077181062], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3571640077181062], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3571640077181062], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3571640077181062], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3602946525393023], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36216097903212247], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3635170603674539], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36430852252675816], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36748799770392193], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36833138357862905], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36999999999999966], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.37006802721088417], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.37006802721088417], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.37006802721088417], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3728457799381354], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3794303116969585], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.38266790827610275], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3845413849369806], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3899999999999998], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.39045096206099533], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.39064577446245125], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.39064577446245125], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3942893373554061], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.40138416525113735], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4122214071981196], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.42], 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0.5659532881253756], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5775095645849224], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5775095645849224], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5775095645849224], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5809197492787355], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5809197492787355], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5809197492787355], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5893202135219261], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5928043459865616], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5928043459865616], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5928043459865616], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5992975734355047], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5992975734355047], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.5992975734355047], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6049424112264197], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6049424112264197], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6049424112264197], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6070749174766935], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6173320917238969], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6173320917238969], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6173320917238969], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6173320917238969], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.7265336289726532], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.7265336289726532], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.7265336289726532], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9291131827878588], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9551416803849561], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9582505192832259], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.974443416313079], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9783243868741757], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9783243868741757], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9783243868741757], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9949433472180019], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9982278366898155], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9993314795003418], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.9996492018286156], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.999931137195042]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 4 (Oct 1): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Atlanta Falcons?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-4-oct-1-will-the-jacksonvi", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Wembley Stadium at 06:30 PDT on October 1, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-12\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5901639344262292], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5901639344262292], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5901639344262292], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5901639344262292], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.56], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.6056564990144738], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5611521820015967], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.52], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.54], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5613281797699317], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5799999999999997], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.58], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6071796336834938], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6116062748121973], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5901639344262292], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5901639344262292], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6176026046922038], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6376811594202898], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6376811594202898], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6661728325713842], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7023127596232326], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7364029705583689], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7442195169385535], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7511694327430432], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7511694327430432], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7511694327430432], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7613578869152263], 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0.8713933152152177], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8713933152152177], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8792708259287904], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8792708259287904], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8792708259287904], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.880667421207393], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.880667421207393], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.880667421207393], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8810405052512386], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8810405052512386], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8810405052512386], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8856824523390133], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8856824523390133], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8856824523390133], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8894106062190096], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8894106062190096], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8894106062190096], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8915142736565045], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8915142736565045], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8915142736565045], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8917266552988119], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.894020535378541], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8960474564620227], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8960474564620227], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8960474564620227], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8969981939269788], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8993503431002833], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8993503431002833], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8993503431002833], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.8993839626882714], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9004560477145932], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9004560477145932], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9004560477145932], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9058628179767916], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.906347631362479], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9077575498244316], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9077575498244316], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9077575498244316], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9082119495815286], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9089306598632433], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9090423407980734], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9114424664674271], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9115478572821244], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9133677947502414], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9143597002536269], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9190527856632618], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9196233837270258], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9196233837270258], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9196233837270258], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9204691845399757], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9220284802911503], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9227772268912726], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9227772268912726], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9227772268912726], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9238398915072366], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9238398915072366], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9238398915072366], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9241319440226637], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9241319440226637], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9241319440226637], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9244636991519672], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9249611893087385], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.927354958002881], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9275716810068731], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9277960279013117], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9277960279013117], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9277960279013117], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9288603243705499], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9288603243705499], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9288603243705499], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9292649646038122], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9292649646038122], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9292649646038122], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9306960542539439], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9306960542539439], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9306960542539439], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9313452214712276], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9316273815467103], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9319891249344897], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9335780454388145], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9349242413673804], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9349415746497788], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9350454782877623], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.935238099180599], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9361076354262146], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9366524761639945], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9366524761639945], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9366524761639945], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9382626980265616], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.939550437481019], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.939550437481019], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.939550437481019], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9409211413057572], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9415981599404231], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9442762917429455], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9442762917429455], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9442762917429455], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9448535329033647], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9456901052394685], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9456901052394685], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9456901052394685], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9485360398469445], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9529407405306819], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.953477404878539], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9546989767183923], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9589787403277211], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9634153308179371], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9639795903004655], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9725211280506382], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9748513196717249], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9767839875894032], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9767839875894032], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9767839875894032], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9768800672086208], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.980598837274641], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9827741169148343], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9865711003336922], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9891771269942014], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9930248601799825], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.995059349197596], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9962384866231453], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9966644948090485], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9983845332391045], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9991073680856245], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9994178644487954], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9995833218598621], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.9997240075985794]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 6 (Oct 12): Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-6-oct-12-will-the-kansas-c", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium at 17:15 PDT on October 12, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-12\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.6177206035454132], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6897105484416878], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.7446383252125355], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.79], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.84], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8618473567903067], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8407102767988617], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8407102767988617], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8407102767988617], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8599999999999999], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8750401358396044], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.8472522368243266], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8299999999999998], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8299999999999998], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8299999999999998], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8299999999999998], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8640350877192983], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8640350877192983], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8640350877192983], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8693548387096774], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8693548387096774], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8693548387096774], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.87], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8787878787878788], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9000000000000001], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.905241935483871], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.905241935483871], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9094967984436594], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.91], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9149599810242665], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.91812865497076], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9264404969901564], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.92671447781264], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.93], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.93], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9399999999999998], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9408140519000853], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9461382113821138], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9527872427682113], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9527872427682113], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9527872427682113], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9552206255093894], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9604427564538235], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9604427564538235], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9604427564538235], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9612115747541735], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9612115747541735], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9612115747541735], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9653274959644272], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9653274959644272], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9653274959644272], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9657755147701429], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9657755147701429], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9657755147701429], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9692458710501672], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9696102279951885], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9724560363797551], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9724560363797551], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9724560363797551], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9727572879230925], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9727572879230925], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9727572879230925], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9728217109161101], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9765812431113746], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9775930981461106], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9786166036425271], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9903229082414416], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9908165753547489], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9908165753547489], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9908165753547489], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9908669084909209], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9912112892740444], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9912112892740444], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9912112892740444], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9915966358230981], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9915966358230981], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9915966358230981], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9922285922576448], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9922285922576448], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9922285922576448], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9925136375948107], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9925136375948107], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9925136375948107], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9925439331123621], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9945037534272554], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9967906654928304], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9976066672044276], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.999094352634559], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9995419109688766], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9995419109688766], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.9995419109688766]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Angola beat Mozambique during regular time on Fri, Oct 13, 2023? - Friendlies", "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-angola-beat-mozambique-during", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "\ud83d\udcc5 Date: Friday, October 13, 2023 \u23f0 Start Time (UTC): 14:00\n\n\ud83c\udfc6 Competition: Friendlies\n\n\ud83d\udd11 Market Resolution:\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n\nAngola has more goals\n\nThis market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n\nBoth teams have an equal number of goals\n\nMozambique has more goals\n\n(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)\n\n\ud83d\udd50 Market Closing Time:\n\nThis market is scheduled to close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff. However, this market may resolve BEFORE the closing time once the resolution criteria is met.\n\n\ud83d\udd0e You can search for more match details on Google", "date_begin": "2023-10-12", "date_close": "2023-10-13", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-13", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-12\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0002459521413886167], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0006640205806769318], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0008925777202765241], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0008958298761451102], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.001353531718786675], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0022155203340817166], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0033010925847400062], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.003309137182364262], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0035582656076421967], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.003575821113184803], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0035944275893133506], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0036561416232385835], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0064205997891203], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.0070734913473382505], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.012294768851869703], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.016477504212702162], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.031026637164052618], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.05723585690947489], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.13754657967042674], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.13754657967042788], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.13930633199995562], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.14628673947028442], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.1491081698341302], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.21495545238237362], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.21892845132003053], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.23065944297815846], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.294949773639076], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.37401600596969276], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.41284849613704766], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4128484961370477], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.42999999999999994], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4524886877828056], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4524886877828056], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7080108119497747]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Labour Party candidate win the seat?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:\n\nhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect\n\nThis should lead to an imminent by-election.\n\nWill the Labour Party candidate win the seat?\n\nIf there is no Labour Party candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO.\n\nIf there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A", "date_begin": "2023-06-09", "date_close": "2023-10-20", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-20", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-09\", 0.17728173186507126], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.17868973881577277], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.2998276897071214], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.3474532609998435], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.42195659787441914], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.44], [\"2023-06-10\", 0.1896241790784687], [\"2023-06-11\", 0.13428266450996307], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.18999999999999984], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.18999999999999984], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.18999999999999984], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.2052138202809973], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.17369008936510116], [\"2023-08-18\", 0.16930652126339904], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.20000000000000018], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.2199999999999999], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.24239338471447996], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.3199999999999999], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.3199999999999999], [\"2023-08-31\", 0.35238202201866065], [\"2023-09-01\", 0.3014430632611063], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.2845565992022748], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3014430632611063], [\"2023-09-03\", 0.3014430632611063], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.23283863893089143], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.2330131152046539], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.24999999999999975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.24999999999999975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.24999999999999975], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.28712438461085427], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.29305551494633825], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.2999999999999998], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.2999999999999998], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.2999999999999998], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-09-05\", 0.3774372177102825], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.27], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.29404912403268085], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.29406677113745316], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.29700580238288576], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.4029699205770314], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.2940491240326807], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.2940491240326807], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.33000000000000007], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.34312942480341596], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.2860059407514896], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-09-13\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.36879300881245336], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.2700000000000001], 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0.3717553627028631], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.38017779741665897], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.36237121318798704], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.41000000000000003], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.42798555216462997], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4285699551616122], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.4799999999999999], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.5003447836968659], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.48772971020741007], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4111484978984398], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4182008109380621], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4299999999999999], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4299999999999999], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4299999999999999], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.45000000000000007], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.45000000000000007], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.45000000000000007], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.4299999999999999], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.4470523152791619], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.470640681955627], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.47999999999999976], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5064228649810482], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.4900000000000002], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.502651663473783], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.5452432443339147], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.45072406106932345], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.459216987138438], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4700000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4700000000000001], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4700000000000001], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3064446808298283], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3400000000000002], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3400000000000002], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3400000000000002], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.38745581723532885], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4000000000000003], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4000000000000003], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4000000000000003], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4082803822679798], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.41999999999999976], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.4394313423434416], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.42000000000000015], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.43292525122942616], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4450717997413747], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.47], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.47682351077705876], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.522842475518231], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5638569509489181], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5638569509489181], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5638569509489181], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.596772093510113], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6509897529669167], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6750856422233386], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7103924356248814], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7200000000000003], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7200000000000003], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7200000000000003], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7250922622801178], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7459780341843032], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.7514277857992443], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.8393927039542864], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9098143153000073], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9565962180677289], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9612948847577236], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9612948847577236], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9612948847577236], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9816359317497153], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9827461591577716], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9827461591577716], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9827461591577716], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9948769582200038], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9948769582200038], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9948769582200038], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9998811162814383], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9998811162814383], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.9998811162814383]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect\"]"}, {"question": "Will Chris Christie suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-chris-christie-suspend-his-pre", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.\n\nIn 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 15th of January, 2024. If Chris Christie suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO.", "date_begin": "2023-06-09", "date_close": "2024-01-11", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-09\", 0.37901758641600974], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.46159527326440175], [\"2023-06-12\", 0.5334236925559805], [\"2023-06-13\", 0.4768677326744153], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.364507604017936], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.3876943967636874], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.36350703611525026], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.40999999999999975], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.43309782553561105], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.35679420535319184], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-11-04\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.3611898119883037], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.37], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.3900534128847529], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.3548518515542766], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.31710002750146504], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.3793434317601761], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.4016634883168584], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.33977938756356835], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.2930470886760221], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3133404965457442], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22729519001959309], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2409690718292904], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2665643106634028], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3645260579105534], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3738975617517262], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3748523105456613], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.3181053867846371], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.3181053867846371], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.34501587067756984], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.31063572121941874], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.17999999999999994], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.17999999999999994], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.17999999999999994], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.19404041874664765], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.2125258455920606], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.10253140683572905], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.10253140683572905], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.13286290269014336], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.15366201074616448], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.09127057164942709], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.09127057164942709], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.09127057164942709], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.2999999999999999], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.364529140183384], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.491103534620597], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.491103534620597], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.491103534620597], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.5199999999999999], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.5731249246696263], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.78], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.8497717358650254], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.8497717358650254], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.8497717358650254], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.8513603075694485], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.8547812148033532], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.86], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.86], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.86], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.8900000000000001], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.8941527474489489], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9034897731204562], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9225955569935254], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9251699387839669], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9361400429607749], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9361400429607749], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9361400429607749], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.936635098316992], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.945427248144766], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9748200387034434], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9768763736139446], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9768763736139446], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9768763736139446], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9769738190565282], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9771402091025355], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9787076093616377], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9787076093616377], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9787076093616377], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9828131402003222], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9828671052053742], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9891871336610252], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9896064357797388], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9896064357797388], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9896064357797388], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9926739847440416], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9926856218260405], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9944443476271962], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9968904285011301], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9975125096794709], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9975148969627591], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9984317413053169], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9984539885081545], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9990710185069316], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9990754432389669], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.999075706952831], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9991201165746455], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9991201165746455], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.999124737228642], [\"2024-01-10\", 0.9992918234054394], [\"2024-01-11\", 0.9990949145907677]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Travis King return from North Korea to the US by end of 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-travis-king-return-from-north", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves YES if Travis King, the US soldier who crossed into North Korea, is physically in the US at any point before the end of 2023, as reported by reliable media sources.\n\nhttps://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/asia/north-korea-us-soldier-travis-king-intl/index.html", "date_begin": "2023-07-20", "date_close": "2023-09-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-20\", 0.30769230769230776], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.3378378378378379], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.2000000000000001], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.3144684177405097], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.4300339887681275], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.44948018436790466], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.45498187710791566], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.4245513203885869], [\"2023-07-28\", 0.45000000000000007], [\"2023-08-01\", 0.3762508798658408], [\"2023-08-05\", 0.22249117082814837], [\"2023-08-06\", 0.2123564561980347], [\"2023-08-16\", 0.14584552517558438], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.47139291128503774], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.6492707787182671], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.66], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.743156308719358], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.8338176210825213], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.856019929059007], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.8799999999999999], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.8799999999999999], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.8799999999999999], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.8810962629494934], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.8810962629494934], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.8810962629494934], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.8836137436771415], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.8980514574758379], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.903311374967859], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9033855304202092], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9033855304202092], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9033855304202092], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9044407815165395], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9057210240809547], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.92], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9333786878783908], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9435077254061175], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9498070571281159], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9570509771884341], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9570509771884341], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9570509771884341], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9702678795628543], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.9858040378159021], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.995697904919616], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9957072969523696], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9964070777297651], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9964601124760838], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9982433716920874], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9989383875401429], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.9995697832785247]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/asia/north-korea-us-soldier-travis-king-intl/index.html\"]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Indianapolis Colts?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-13-dec-3-will-the-tennesse", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Nissan Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 3, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.4695135561132067], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.46951355611320666], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.46951355611320666], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.46951355611320666], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.46951355611320666], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.46951355611320666], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.46951355611320666], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.48], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.48], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.46], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.46951355611320666], [\"2023-12-01\", 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"https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-dallas", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 5:20 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.556769386551559], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.6103431610528431], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6103431610528429], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6103431610528429], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.6246524448143904], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.6246524448143904], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.6246524448143904], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.5792360564142697], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.6307517197415443], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.64], 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"https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-at-least-5000-wagner-soldiers", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "date_begin": "2023-07-07", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-07\", 0.3378378378378379], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.21554232378551177], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.28], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.3000000000000002], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.30310465594090574], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.3146900311279348], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.3146900311279348], [\"2023-07-08\", 0.33076507726688326], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.24051612841383208], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.3021898763029588], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.32], [\"2023-07-09\", 0.32], 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A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-08", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.3378378378378379], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.17999999999999988], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.27], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.33783783783783816], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.33783783783783816], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.2238866349459696], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.05759852229498212], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.09376133225824253], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.15052174715792052], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.16745876238331922], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.17488256421592852], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.17488256421592852], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.17488256421592852], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.18802919639518242], 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0.07999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.08999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.09999999999999987], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.09999999999999987], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.09999999999999987], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.10015680752201803], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.10015680752201803], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.10256108890210412], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.10256108890210415], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.10256108890210415], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.10999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.1125773753474723], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11371698025720002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11576493558938152], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11999999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.11999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.12451004606364924], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.12999999999999992], 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0.15000000000000027], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.15000000000000027], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.152945800723628], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.16000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.16000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.16000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.16000000000000025], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.16000000000000025], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.16403860391969324], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.17], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.17], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.17], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.17000000000000037], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.17000000000000037], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.18379627513827676], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.18719847186958138], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.19000000000000022], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.19000000000000028], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.19999999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.19999999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.19999999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.20542151490675933], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.21000000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.21000000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.21000000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2181722540329121], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.21999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.21999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.21999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2299999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.22999999999999987], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.22999999999999987], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.22999999999999987], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.23329525419201613], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2399999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2399999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2399999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2500192332707253], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.0005083278248111456], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.000510771766314681], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.000510771766314681], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.000510771766314681], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.004984719499096268], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.005075973667343401]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will any permanent speaker of the house be elected without bipartisan support before 2025?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-any-permanent-speaker-of-the-h", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "date_begin": "2023-10-19", "date_close": "2023-10-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.5], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.6339492055095239], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.74293059125964], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.7885026032190101], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2277426422647335], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2277426422647335], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.2277426422647335], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.24856090774098144], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.24856090774098144], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.24856090774098144], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.28999999999999987], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36000000000000015], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36000000000000015], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36000000000000015], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36512430985575955], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36512430985575955], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36512430985575955], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36512430985575955], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36512430985575955], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.36512430985575955], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3720418920730587], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3720418920730587], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3720418920730587], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.3720418920730587], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4048044017774645], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.47000000000000003], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4959088865768627], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4999999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4999999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4999999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4999999999999999], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5000000000000002], 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true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "BlackRock, a leading player in the asset management industry, has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 15, 2023, for a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) known as the \"iShares Bitcoin Trust\"\u200b1\u200b. Despite the recent regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, BlackRock's application suggests confidence in the asset class and could be seen as a positive sign for the crypto industry\u200b1\u200b.\n\nThe BlackRock \"iShares Bitcoin Trust\" is planning to use data provided by Coinbase's custody services, a collaboration that has been in the works since mid-2022\u200b1\u200b.", "date_begin": "2023-06-19", "date_close": "2024-01-11", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-19\", 0.23593116620850282], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.23593116620850282], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.23593116620850282], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.23593116620850282], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.23593116620850282], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.23593116620850282], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.23593116620850285], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.24999999999999994], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-06-19\", 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France in the group stage at the 2023 FIBA World Cup?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-lebanon-win-vs-france-in-the-g", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place on August 29, 2023", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-08-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.06258975123699101], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.25582827081635817], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0002910756235702691], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0005538332891387665], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0008870915821753416], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0011398516691332192], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0019085384509930883], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.0031839388560757436], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.01955877526041702], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.019999999999999993], [\"2023-08-29\", 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"https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-clevela", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Cleveland Browns Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.530486443886793], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.530486443886793], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.530486443886793], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5400000000000003], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5400000000000003], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5400000000000003], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5400000000000003], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5199999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5599999999999999], 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2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-mitch-mcconnell-stop-being-sen-3a545f3af060", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Mitch McConnell is 80 years old and has been the Senate Republican Leader since 2007, and is the all time longest serving Party Leader in the Senate.\n\nThe question resolves as YES if Mitch McConnell resigns, is ousted by his caucus, dies, or for any other reason loses Party Leader status for the Senate Republicans before the end of 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-07-27", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-27\", 0.028675972975763072], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.03412689745549854], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.039999999999999994], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.08466106699776653], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.14225554903418947], [\"2023-07-27\", 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0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.24897251252707592], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.25171307037621066], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.2528223531410582], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24164594050683832], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.21336897619377423], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.21336897619377423], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.21336897619377423], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.22219423833003485], [\"2023-09-11\", 0.2316027826230851], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.2113840403072617], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.2200797635621544], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.17317343827052317], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.1900000000000001], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.19094479434746536], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.20635528810626477], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.1672812531264661], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.17129367733437484], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.177345473467231], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.1800000000000001], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.1635074828551045], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.16473504744471162], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.16308553131552692], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.16449798130533638], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.16582012198962093], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.16070725718559278], 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0.1864034847521546], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.15655167533481854], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.15551883743384987], [\"2023-11-08\", 0.15339665751684559], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13097524595812596], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1310935141167722], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1310935141167722], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1310935141167722], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.13509527333212804], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.1542646789485972], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.14933324946598533], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.16084822689503017], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.17765740597848226], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.18354863042103625], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.18586014772770507], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.18654014766962493], [\"2023-11-22\", 0.1899999999999998], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12544146614556342], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12551527728662176], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12551527728662176], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12551527728662176], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12551527728662176], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12551527728662176], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12551527728662176], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12551527728662176], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12551527728662176], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12551527728662176], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12796228774126014], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.12920275290184532], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.1299612282232958], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.13003937743122101], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.13003937743122101], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.13003937743122101], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.13394551730185106], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.15924807089735116], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.12649364599637408], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.12704049222575578], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.12295018602703449], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.0986629766265408], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.09890523975408698], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.09914847294876111], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.09741864248590228], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.09397331889555888], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.09624609229807655], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.07537494162244855], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.0682410083245678], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.06221578451532738], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.06914096476885216], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.12112759568786052], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.061991547103507], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.061880151843223645], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.05220559432527264], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.04614599016062987], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.04683818271347253], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.04687324286995842], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.046908346476038], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.04600986507539794], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.045339106953879896], [\"2023-12-20\", 0.04468573743390885], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.01621608924983806]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will it snow in New York during the winter of 2023-2024?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-it-snow-in-new-york-during-the", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "It has been more than 700 days since accumulating snow fell in several US East Coast cities.  No snow has yet fallen this winter, and little usually falls during El Nino years.\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if accumulating snow is recorded in New York's Central Park before June 1, 2024.  A trace of snow is not defined as accumulating, and therefore is insufficient for this market to resolve to YES.  Sleet and freezing rain are also insufficient.\n\nOtherwise, the market will resolve to NO.  It will resolve to N/A if data stops being reported from Central Park.", "date_begin": "2023-12-25", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-12-25\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.4959676669432541], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.5506378225736672], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.569059818395813], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.6456765989695493], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.6651025943910964], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.6713942273974166], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.6751533344625396], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.6965081965197439], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.727164434604757], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.49212001093197794], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5079364446519647], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5086137652556455], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5155219505541709], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5228484884096152], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5228484884096152], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5228484884096152], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5266950076089466], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5775184555464365], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.5854735845137292], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.6143943232372908], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.6716093470536371], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.7372889504886329], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.7508207607365267], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.7529594845788427], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.7529594845788427], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.7529594845788427], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.7900169848055741], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.7962611690076287], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.7971414898690897], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.7981032563044221], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.7981032563044221], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8008671253907383], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8108090199891775], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8108090199891778], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8169730331432692], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8172938179399238], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8266066217974721], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8291671211827379], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8414336162782813], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8435557277898582], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.8450375687669334], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.8600618176343368], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.8801084810571399], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.8840433432316176], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.8782740766518149], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.8720505226041675], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.8792134107971128], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.8867416224614861], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.8977267448984292], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.9070690030911662], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.9072457340676885], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.9154392836361009], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.9185125219242692], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.96], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9640209953260926], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9656806809831455], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9684593802773915], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9728255862817226], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9755302914854115], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9755302914854115], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9755302914854115], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9755302914854116], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9769127452663801], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9988037495085126], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9988037495085126], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9988037495085126], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9988062064896635], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9988062064896635], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.9988062064896635], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.998846572226898], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9945963270069552], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9946370271062127], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9950787583741906], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9950787583741906], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9950787583741906]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the New York Jets beat the Washington Commanders?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-16-dec-24-will-the-new-yor", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 24, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5567693865515587], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.6242072849728988], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.5811600647621867], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.4325860327238393], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.5799999999999997], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.45818324682705813], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-12-24\", 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[\"2023-10-21\", 0.5577015004855731], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5696876653383964], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5801420697199161], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5801420697199161], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5801420697199161], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5928596344645156], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5928596344645156], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5928596344645156], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.5948615340607566], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6012752139488917], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6012752139488917], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6012752139488917], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6072800955355756], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6110270969297028], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6110270969297028], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6110270969297028], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6146920314791685], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6213428236125615], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6483586061403851], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6558646194235428], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6558646194235428], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6558646194235428], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6603361565090822], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6603361565090822], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6603361565090822], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6692414136016943], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6718936679424935], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6718936679424935], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6718936679424935], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6815559291818006], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6969205130020928], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6969205130020928], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.6969205130020928], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.70165828326595], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7050300461293875], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7060291713785627], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7060291713785627], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7060291713785627], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7072365366924277], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7072365366924277], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7072365366924277], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7129338396926825], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7184339466593828], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7238299804115531], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7254677039129225], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7254677039129225], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7254677039129225], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7343511629770663], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7370532487837634], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7370532487837634], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7370532487837634], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7385539831353718], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.748103911073618], [\"2023-10-21\", 0.7542913838307544]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Arizona Cardinals beat the San Francisco 49ers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-15-dec-17-will-the-arizona", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at State Farm Stadium at 1:05 PST on December 17, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.23584905660377364], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.1566773215995509], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.1401359380294144], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.13], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.010000000000000012], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.010497589865466821], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.013290218566860546], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.04000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.05000000000000007], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.06000000000000007], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.07000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.0899999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.08999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.08999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.08999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.08999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.08999999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1061208567272208], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1097554761702321], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10999999999999992], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10999999999999992], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10999999999999992], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.10999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.11999999999999991], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.11999999999999993], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.11999999999999993], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.11999999999999993], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.11999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.12999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.12999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.12999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.12999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.13000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.13999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.13999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.13999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.13999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1400000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1400000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16000000000000011], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16000000000000011], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16000000000000011], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16000000000000011], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16999999999999993], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16999999999999993], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16999999999999993], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1700000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1783246590502006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.18000000000000016], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.19000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.19000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.20000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.21999999999999983], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.0002643416330209316], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.0032924129208354836]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will a Latin American rider win a stage at the 2023 Tour de France?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-a-latin-american-rider-win-a-s", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves YES if a cyclist from Latin America wins a stage at the 2023 Tour de France. I believe for this tour this would only include Colombia, Ecuador or Costa Rica.", "date_begin": "2023-06-29", "date_close": "2023-07-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-29\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-06-29\", 0.6315020099890365], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.4717467184087054], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.6779042608621171], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.32992384941266373], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.33337543423903515], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.33337543423903515], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.33337543423903515], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-07-06\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-07-10\", 0.3117660946296327], [\"2023-07-19\", 0.1515859040033185], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.07044188164311793], [\"2023-07-20\", 0.09859580686988303], [\"2023-07-21\", 0.053995223026593646], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.021493034587631077], [\"2023-07-23\", 8.551744225172807e-05], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.000186933720268279], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.0012238533744608393], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.001651244905768103], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.0024243055483625215], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.004166554117556304], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.010266681511351537]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Carolina Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-18-jan-5-will-the-carolina", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Bank of America Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.34743872693889954], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.31336991805106607], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.28868600824693375], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.26665575138456393], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.2911658517040665], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.27429031173131735], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.30000000000000027], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.3125230372551029], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.28797821512449456], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.30999999999999983], [\"2024-01-06\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0004044445317033626], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.005406666679584339], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.014815836799757233], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.02654897161311883], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.06982353107873387], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.07543826290014438], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.12671639290248793], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2023416605369222], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2137280134303942], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2963822141489777], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.30000000000000027], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.30687193430936216], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.30999999999999983], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.32000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.33248760839672453], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3335211713903259], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3591938856314308]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-kansas", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-08\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.5199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.16999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.16999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.16999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.18999999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.19062384520773318], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2099999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.21000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.21687655351287108], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.23000000000000004], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.23999999999999994], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.24000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.24000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.24000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.24000000000000007], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2415951574000624], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.24999999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25000000000000006], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.25000000000000006], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2701870977375505], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29704597020920637], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.29999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3020398508100876], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3020398508100876], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-12-10\", 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[\"2023-12-11\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.6400000000000003], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.6634686671311029]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Denver Broncos?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-18-jan-5-will-the-las-vega", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Allegiant Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-08", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.450130295934499], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4033267934023434], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.45000000000000007], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.4702837471444759], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5472318881200604], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.6040786177863173], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6056880554184522], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6099999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6201142283201727], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6296111600614316], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.63], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.63], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.63], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.63], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.63], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.63], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.65], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.65], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.65], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.66], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.66], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6600000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6600000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6600000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6600000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.67], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.68], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.68], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.68], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.68], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6857146989886078], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6900000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7019009134501384], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.71], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.76], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.76], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.76], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.76], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7689250286947835], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7800000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7800000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.79], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.79], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7930153362053083], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.86], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.86], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.87], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.87], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.87], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8700000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8744099141859755], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8790249677602977], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8854534853708139], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8900000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9000000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9000000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.91], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.91], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9199999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9199999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9345220768545959], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9461234848302535], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9600000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9664719523401603], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9907325876160055], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.9971166098795415], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.9997890130063078]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Dec 15?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-kevin-mccarthy-remain-speaker-d9b7fa28e8fc", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through Dec 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-10-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.5], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.6495508543857469], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8007262252992842], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8268620599871929], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.835299086038582], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.8487134948485363], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.8568980117056949], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.8103453572717495], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.82], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.82], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.82], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.4226267028675058], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.46818290215311015], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5567614099957078], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6231694850818185], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6247604143787251], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6256349163744009], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.65], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6604384329817079], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6620266962606588], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6620266962606588], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6620266962606588], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6658847846318303], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.6707670521122665], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7034844364413609], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7096458551035726], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.71], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7112544091840804], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7227487649422548], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7699999999999998], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7699999999999998], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7699999999999998], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.7823018670652984], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6698359480038873], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.710445616867358], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7105041406502518], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.7265338985311155], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.7259082965511006], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.7259082965511006], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.7383536526876848], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.7438301990249503], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.7520011553118644], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0001904501564822207], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.005662228529330783], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.005664177972167132], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.00629716199348909], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.00673006534687424], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.010191825109932794], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.010191825109932794], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.010191825109932794], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.010675948638781244], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01369164605127606], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01369164605127606], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01369164605127606], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.014444031826122488], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.014444031826122488], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.014444031826122488], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01525901287009264], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01525901287009264], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01525901287009264], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.016148563846314377], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.016148563846314377], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.016148563846314377], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.017110923027584962], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.017116551629855658], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.018172337899081462], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.026573501672126302], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.026573501672126302], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.026573501672126302], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.031214268949997324], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.031214268949997324], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.031214268949997324], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.03385972591952868], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.03454006016530983], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.039886460589227554], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.039886460589227554], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.039886460589227554], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04022187562591204], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04022187562591204], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04022187562591204], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04368518778897162], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04368518778897162], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04368518778897162], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04406779725670632], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04406779725670632], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04406779725670632], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.050960765594618575], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.05352950159872588], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.05919659390892], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.06000000000000005], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.06000000000000005], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.06000000000000005], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.06214587056725907], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.06426864419786935], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.06611965842384603], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.06685727475869095], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.06957789150874223], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.06999999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0751243547674892], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.07832478682448897], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.07832478682448897], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.07832478682448897], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.08004794707830487], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.08004794707830487], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.08004794707830487], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09000000000000004], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09099590388449733], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09099590388449733], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09099590388449733], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09174948339242144], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09720346249500876], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09720346249500876], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09720346249500876], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09777321895005521], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09777321895005521], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09777321895005521], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09826712082585991], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09826712082585991], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09826712082585991], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09991981455328477], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.11612015751867576], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.11612015751867576], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.11612015751867576], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.11999999999999995], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.11999999999999995], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.11999999999999995], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.12256652372218671], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.12256652372218671], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.12256652372218671], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.13616061301332127], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.13994169224116032], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.13994169224116032], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.13994169224116032], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1399999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1399999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1399999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1481803590591217], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1481803590591217], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1481803590591217], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.16000000000000011], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.16000000000000011], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.16000000000000011], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1674885709790762], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17000000000000018], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1701964535178081], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17227100498651407], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17253480963782422], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17436783392711927], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17824182696734786], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1808414845624243], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.18491329820108182], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.18823680099961695], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.18912440479641868], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19000000000000014], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19371303174133886], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19527514428534481], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19774509249664807], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19774509249664807], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19774509249664807], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20066503147035303], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20483197496099514], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20511742437984934], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20619826895947152], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20721302356702492], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.21560102793113584], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.21643272855678988], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2212247863998624], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.22942929433375728], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2349072902789189], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2452099132142354], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.25972332774893003], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.27285694599582555], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3399999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3399999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3399999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3475966155107405], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3821053011770202], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.39410528343985424], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.41000000000000003], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.41000000000000003], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.41000000000000003], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.415440395733887], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4216481634896301], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4216481634896301], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4216481634896301], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.42741467137552197], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.42898235686674246], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4583092022482481], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5673411518714929], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5673411518714929], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5673411518714929], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7003180342570946], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7003180342570946], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7003180342570946], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7420758905623706]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the Washington Commanders?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-15-dec-17-will-the-los-ang", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 1:05 PST on December 17, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-18", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-18", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.6956058369986597], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.7808503716537223], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7372315491866109], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7591867428056853], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.81], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8153469839774208], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8200000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8200000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8200000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8800000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9625915947156175], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.97], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9858045488961005], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.996502379459804], [\"2023-12-18\", 0.9997831793991796]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Oregon defeat Utah?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-utah", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Kickoff: Saturday, October 28, 2023 - 1:30 PM MDT\n\nRice-Eccles Stadium - Salt Lake City, Utah", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5515861251111771], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.621150670513562], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6591926860122431], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.6038137994082061], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.6562801337681735], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6151946913850722], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.7251743512969906], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7222351894859897], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.7299999999999998], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.650213518895968], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6678231613247525], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6814295526444173], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6836806246312662], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7008338900826151], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7010869792068019], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7014874627316863], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7141694981993064], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7199999999999998], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7199999999999998], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7199999999999998], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7317223375708394], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7600049023948725], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.8309487108702882], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.833577714410799], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.8540252254520081], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.8549296423305807], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.8730412481387599], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.8771900907851676], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.94], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9445428137888389], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.94854515501492], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9517163536769798], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9520922472705117], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9520922472705117], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9520922472705117], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9552276817253589], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9826947297130332], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9832870456719524], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9832870456719524], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9832870456719524], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9835628471959321], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9923746563759811], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9969639517916953], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9969784286752761], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9969784286752761], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9969784286752761], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9979941597939731], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9985367147150389], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9988677138852524], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.999087771045972], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.9990886988249398]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the \"Will Ukraine launch a large scale counter-offense before July 2023?\" market resolve to YES before June 17th?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-the-will-ukraine-launch-a-larg", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The market linked in this description is the relevant market. Due to space limitation its wording in the title has been altered slightly.\n\nI'm a coward so I am completely outsourcing the resolution of this market.\n\nMarket closes at 23.59 UTC on June 16th. If the referenced market has resolved YES by then, then this market resolves YES, otherwise (either it is still open or has resolved NO or N/A) it resolves NO.\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/Fedor/will-the-ukrainian-army-launch-a-la-b0bb34b878c3?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz", "date_begin": "2023-06-08", "date_close": "2023-06-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-09", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-08\", 0.2531374469290252], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.2808988764044944], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.2862802390810355], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.3207316682316294], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.34], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.34181484634660353], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.35656182904304584], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.3751358014828318], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.4085457788744219], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5110440733076763], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.6609231537732099], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.6609231537732099], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.6609231537732099], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7088138926927058], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7786151424094758], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.8663015709988423], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.8936298222434381], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9042187046950632], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9104588711320503], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.946561878405624], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.947464004195674], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9476139509045178], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9476880651456793], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9477619935115147], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9483483275099898], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9491787927545038], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9519924064921138], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9410379326254126], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9592738974360285], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9613469776041741], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.964966890741834], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.964966890741834], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.964966890741834], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9805393314190257], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9816200729552556], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9856602426064939], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9895882215358572], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9898919872698743], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9902177190010425], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9902184714586113], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9926528944660982], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9978830687814114], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9981297889537087], [\"2023-06-09\", 0.9989756401023493]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://manifold.markets/Fedor/will-the-ukrainian-army-launch-a-la-b0bb34b878c3?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz\"]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Seattle Seahawks?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-16-dec-24-will-the-tenness", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Nissan Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 24, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.4501302959344992], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-12-19\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.3856633890388729], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-21\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.35741487341537104], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.35999999999999976], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.35999999999999976], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.35999999999999976], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.38999999999999996], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.29117966599110406], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3499999999999997], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3499999999999997], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3499999999999997], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3900000000000001], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3900000000000001], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.3900000000000001], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.39000000000000035], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.6773160370921985], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.00021605794125929197], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.0018576787453064454], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.0029167588218335615], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.0038674192706681727], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.004425700801563579], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.006544617605292698], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.009313048511369819], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.010000000000000005], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.01084229705942312], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.012029835404418777], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.012712535446592933], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.016927823694090106], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.01828382962085457], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.01981813697957834], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06000000000000009], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06000000000000009], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.06000000000000009], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07999999999999995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07999999999999995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.07999999999999995], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.10188399159704599], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.11804417418358935], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.11804417418358935], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.11804417418358935], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.11999999999999993], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.11999999999999993], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.11999999999999993], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.13217270577992443], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.14000000000000004], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.1499999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.1499999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.1700000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.1720836782395335], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.17335445668238328], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.19000000000000017], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.19000000000000017], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.19000000000000017], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.22000000000000008], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.23608783379804832], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2645137139128419], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.27227270666777775], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2799999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2799999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2799999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.29722182814946424], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3144825083545405], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3144825083545405], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3300000000000003], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.35329336181327037], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3599999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37757000773591864], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.37894335402988877], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3799999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.38000000000000017], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3900000000000001], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3982518552034683], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40646640062194556], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40999999999999975], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40999999999999975], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.40999999999999975], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.4099999999999998], 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[\"2023-12-24\", 0.7799999999999999]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-13-dec-3-will-the-green-ba", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Lambeau Field at 5:20 PST on December 3, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-04", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-04", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.3378378378378379], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1689756473681522], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2217664079372311], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2306712354510248], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2599999999999999], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.26000000000000023], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.27455024064620537], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2799999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2799999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 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A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-08", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3043941630013404], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.20953596689797008], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.47000000000000003], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5473433932909638], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5473433932909638], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5473433932909638], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.51], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.5257583609092412], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.55], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.5712136365886019], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.5942024972992096], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.62675388511975], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.25000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2600000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2600000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.26094712064224823], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2721319990217814], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.29], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.29951779230100045], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31000000000000016], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31000000000000016], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31000000000000016], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31999999999999973], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31999999999999973], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31999999999999973], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.32000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.32000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.32000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3299999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3299999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3299999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3300000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.33462057227417497], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3438609583593242], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3490948509204886], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3599999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3800000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3840313560015275], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.38999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3999999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3999999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3999999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.39999999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4014286862862989], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.40999999999999964], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.40999999999999964], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.40999999999999964], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4099999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4100000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4145107701310597], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41999999999999976], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41999999999999976], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41999999999999976], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41999999999999976], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.42000000000000004], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4299999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4299999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4299999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.42999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.43], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.43], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.43], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.43411779827211944], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.44], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.44], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.44], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.44], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.44], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.44], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.44], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.45999999999999963], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.46], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.46999999999999986], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.47000000000000014], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.47000000000000014], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.47000000000000014], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.47999999999999976], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.49645823557730434], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5000000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5081750003686909], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.51], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.51], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.51], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.51], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.51], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.51], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.51], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5113378018998219], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5113378018998219], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5113378018998219], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.52], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.52], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.52], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.52], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.52], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.54], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5453122509957843], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5499999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5499999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5499999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.55], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.55], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.55], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.55], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5707872360894504], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.58], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.58], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6199999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6231463635879322], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6299999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6299999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6299999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.63], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6399887180810236], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6422682990463111], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6518576358933362], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.66], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.66], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.66], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.67], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.67], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.67], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.68], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.69], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7299999999999998], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.00013878498700248344], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.00489607434297358], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.005424890523827409], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.007422974116765072], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.007448635429848324], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.009132152102683493], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.01000000000000001], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.010111154534515585], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.010972588411306085], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.011348702282899878], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.03477096886998749], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.08999999999999993], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.08999999999999993], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.09999999999999994], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.12000000000000002], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.15999999999999995], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.16051949803944968], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.17999999999999988], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.19000000000000009], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.1991000802078658], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.21000000000000016], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.21999999999999997], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.21999999999999997], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.21999999999999997], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.25000000000000006], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.25000000000000006], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.25000000000000006], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.36000000000000015], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.42], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.4299999999999997], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.4299999999999997], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6314914213974805], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.66], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.66], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.66], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6899999999999996], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6899999999999996], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6899999999999996], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.6899999999999996], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7199999999999998], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7199999999999998], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7199999999999998], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7199999999999998], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.74], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.74], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.74], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.7500000000000002]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 11): Will the New York Giants beat the Green Bay Packers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-11-will-the-new-yor", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 11, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.31242276223068405], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.2587518026284415], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.27999999999999986], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.29000000000000026], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.29000000000000026], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.29000000000000026], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.20999999999999985], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.20999999999999994], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.20999999999999994], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.20999999999999994], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.21000000000000005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.21000000000000005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.21000000000000005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.21999999999999992], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22000000000000008], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22000000000000008], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22000000000000008], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22000000000000008], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22999999999999993], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22999999999999993], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22999999999999993], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22999999999999993], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.22999999999999993], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.23000000000000007], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.23000000000000007], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.23000000000000007], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.23000000000000007], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.23000000000000007], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.23000000000000007], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.23000000000000007], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.24000000000000005], 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0.2800000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2800000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2888475991142995], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.29000000000000015], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.29000000000000015], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2900000000000002], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2900000000000002], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.2900000000000002], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.30000000000000016], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.30000000000000016], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3099999999999999], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3099999999999999], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3100000000000001], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3100000000000002], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3100000000000002], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.3100000000000002], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.31999999999999984], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.31999999999999984], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.32], 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A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-22\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.752572150847994], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6099999999999998], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6494384992713885], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.7051855199761395], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.5516541201508173], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.5899999999999999], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.7141477830555687], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.13999999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.15000000000000008], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.15000000000000008], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.15659434546947135], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16114176394541313], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16278773448259856], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16280127708385767], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1701012625970888], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1708645299525062], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17999999999999988], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.18999999999999986], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1899999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1899999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.1899999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.19000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.19000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.19000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.19000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.20352757983462474], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.20352757983462474], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.20999999999999985], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.21108612091622006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2120682008174158], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2120682008174158], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.21999999999999986], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.22221421242694617], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.23277255615588222], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.25], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2830062955115755], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3299999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3299999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3299999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3499999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3499999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3499999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3617925223518085], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3799999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3799999999999998], 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0.4299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4330783965872296], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4430715458478008], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44999999999999984], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44999999999999984], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44999999999999984], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.45000000000000007], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.45000000000000007], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.45000000000000007], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4600000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4600000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4600000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.46000000000000024], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.46000000000000024], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.46000000000000024], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.46000000000000024], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.46343221839194865], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.48000000000000015], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.48499981583016477], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.48499981583016477], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.49808420235515366], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5017959607693795], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5017959607693795], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5200000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5200000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5200000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.534485099354915], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5404314587908099], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5431119629726647], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5499999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5500000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5500000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5500000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5500000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5599999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5599999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5599999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5699999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5699999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5699999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5710877696280585], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.578780179032728], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.578780179032728], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.578780179032728], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.585262425942432], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5900000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5961950996210907], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6171426515594006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.629901007594262], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.645896876980088], 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0.9324115194815437], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9334410963066516], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9355158628189075], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9402398644092971], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9427059549807818], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9452607749189585], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9501743178490045], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9562779712830736], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.97], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9799292523406902], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.983587420313995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.983587420313995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.983587420313995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9847849470262083], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9858552676285163], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9888436027160733], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.992304088925134], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9998685145930727]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Giants?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-6-oct-15-will-the-buffalo", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Highmark Stadium at 17:20 PDT on October 15, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-16", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-16", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.6621621621621621], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.7037335484695204], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.755626793171136], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.7647041266474814], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.7791348080503969], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.85], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8778089624633691], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8778089624633691], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8778089624633691], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.8668929990475635], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.7705984860120434], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.8179284381678628], [\"2023-10-13\", 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0.93], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.93], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9593841635583131], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.39570037405544245], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4058051606217578], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4623792964317178], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4623792964317178], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4623792964317178], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.490038438632397], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.4988184872903352], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5066819430268589], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5072496259858396], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5155879332462326], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5155879332462326], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5155879332462326], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5189480398141755], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5189480398141755], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5189480398141755], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5245319024293426], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5313253476702756], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5313253476702756], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5313253476702756], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5341631222560016], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5385688796065623], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5447294301871771], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5517579826677665], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.5517579826677665], [\"2023-10-16\", 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"is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00900 at any time between August 13, 2022, and the resolution time of December 31, 2022, 23:59, and \u201cNo\u201d otherwise. The official resolution source will be\n\nhttps://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1Y", "date_begin": "2023-08-13", "date_close": "2023-12-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-13\", 0.82], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.844520929214888], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.870511922542128], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.8718444513603085], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.8786852497870338], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.8999999999999999], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.9], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.9101649264461011], [\"2023-08-13\", 0.9185333339092309], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7269627850659491], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7599999999999998], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7599999999999998], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.7599999999999998], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8195796959387803], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8500000000000002], [\"2023-08-14\", 0.8623594840245232], [\"2023-08-14\", 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A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-11\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.6282527881040891], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.6751659848200922], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5796014478032078], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5796014478032079], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5796014478032079], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5796014478032079], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5796014478032079], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5796014478032079], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.5796014478032079], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6275342119885923], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.7064311058638996], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5456412847791441], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5699999999999997], 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A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-12\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.3427952807323527], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3092995999944562], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.29682633748084714], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.22593869231372363], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.25639096370393577], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.2653487640528352], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.2711147950560718], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.28], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.29000000000000015], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.2966228364032061], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.35382115821836513], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.2906344936167666], [\"2023-10-17\", 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0.9690584409104287], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9707940913446037], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9708645512463827], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9715136976928987], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9727036523752545], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9727036523752545], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9727036523752545], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9727036523752545], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9737493601233986], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9737493601233986], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9737493601233986], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9751654471995408], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9764809945884828], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.98], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.98], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.98], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9804412029458927], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9806074998443236], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9810571801114173], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9818323121163476], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9848860493158009], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.986388920350377], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9890085178845458], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9905973187850637], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9912623127441593], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9912978396713824], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9919296505102573], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9922239942679758], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9923634335632623], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9960101435422068], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9997491308614429]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-15-dec-17-will-the-green-b", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Lambeau Field at 10:00 PST on December 17, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.5567693865515582], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.581984802081704], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6253542693874881], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.8279279067724], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6920014634224956], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.8134284890057673], [\"2023-12-17\", 8.635413981132523e-05], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.01000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.01000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.01000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.014667360854185778], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.0159363609558312], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.025883978575634473], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.025883978575634473], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.06819535271625629], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.07593960314680888], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.09], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.09999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.12999999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.16000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.17999999999999988], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.19605820668335075], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.21], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2199999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.22000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.22000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.22000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.23000000000000007], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.23999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.24], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.24999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.25000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2686398511329597], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2686924634467401], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2686924634467401], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2700000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.2799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.28], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.29000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.31], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.31000000000000005], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3100000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.32583101770520057], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3300000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.34], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3400000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3400000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.34999999999999987], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.34999999999999987], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.34999999999999987], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.35000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.36999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.36999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.36999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.37000000000000016], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.38999999999999996], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.394404823521282], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.40000000000000024], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.40000000000000024], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.40000000000000024], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.40000000000000024], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4199999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.42999999999999977], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.44999999999999984], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4700000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.49], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5000000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5515199839701403], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.553408352192447], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5692511736731932], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5692511736731934], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5699999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5783042223656834], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5783042223656834], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5783042223656835], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5783042223656835], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5783042223656835], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5783042223656835], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5783042223656835], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5886783274136169], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5899999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5956435755717535], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5972497350269068], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.61], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6140792994121649], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6151643655903909], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6159775939105916], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6159775939105916], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.63], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6300000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6400000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6499999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6499999999999997], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6575889538690731], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.67], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.67], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.67], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.67], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6880965301246221], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.71031059253569], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.725086995539797], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7252074492395302], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7399999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7399999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7399999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7399999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.74]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Jordan win vs. USA in the group stage at the 2023 FIBA World Cup?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-jordan-win-vs-usa-in-the-group", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place on August 30, 2023", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-08-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.11258778972732164], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.12083251335352435], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1305740216421849], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.13919198779874214], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1499999999999999], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.2232020569650465], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.27999999999999997], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.407609159488262], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.036664099091452705], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.04194728486936687], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.05300419813606298], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.06797442746132192], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.08696720602169716], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.10403328276347276], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.1073826935920285], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.10800331498022421], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.10910336247287453], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.11874170779243585], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.11999999999999995], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.1379446502605675], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.02268523384633574], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.024072075992180836], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.025393537713977496], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.02657884806722112], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.02933244179413152], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.031925488323800315], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.03263225998070716], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.03553298776811539], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.03667716201559913], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.03790896952818734], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.000689506377125678], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0009531285916312426], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0009531285916312426], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0009907464960768014], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.0012527179693844728], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.001791776663786954], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.003012274244818134], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.004864566934570992], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.007884819987358658], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.01114289128290315], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.01826110583915241], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.018261105839152414], [\"2023-08-30\", 0.6805170841204744]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Denver Broncos?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-los-ang", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.5567693865515586], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.019999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.019999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.019999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.020320811138672595], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.03], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.051592452286233395], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.051592452286233395], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.051592452286233395], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.07000000000000015], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.07000000000000015], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.07000000000000015], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.09607115237921587], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.09999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1194527589426367], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1194527589426367], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1194527589426367], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.14000000000000007], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.14211149393894795], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.14999999999999988], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.14999999999999988], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.14999999999999988], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.14999999999999988], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.1599999999999999], 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0.3499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.36999999999999983], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3800000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.38065244511674134], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39000000000000007], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.40622215986515825], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41000000000000003], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.41000000000000003], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.42], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4300000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4300000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4300000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4300000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.43000000000000016], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.43000000000000016], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.43000000000000016], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.43000000000000016], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.44], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4900000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5461214698598915], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5899999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6412738410108991], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2023-12-11\", 1.4973220564119896e-05], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.0026054674239265954], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.005513922172630036], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.010000000000000004], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.010000000000000005], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.010000000000000005], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.010000000000000005], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.031583166275839104], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.04], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.04]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NBA (Oct 25, 2023): Will the New York Knicks beat the Boston Celtics?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nba-oct-25-2023-will-the-new-york-k", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at 4:00pm PDT on October 25, 2023.\n\nA game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game.\n\nOne reason to bet on _this_ market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n\nThis is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the 50M market cost).", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.4524886877828055], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.3930978037754541], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3930978037754539], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3930978037754539], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3930978037754539], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3930978037754539], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3930978037754539], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.3930978037754539], [\"2023-10-23\", 0.35000000000000003], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2410282404434844], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.2600000000000002], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.28771465208571895], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.32], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.34999999999999964], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.34999999999999987], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.00011957658152104202], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.01992523727477171], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.023784981923330544], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.03592358807150516], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.048690535549196744], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.06558564218100955], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.07000000000000005], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.07000000000000005], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.07000000000000005], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.07669655980341758], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.12342024572308533], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.12693920127880193], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.14150340349535556], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.16299399913394083], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.1943210500645339], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.20760875118923755], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.22000000000000006], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.227254889691333], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.22999999999999998], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.24380637621579435], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.25408536182515923], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.27], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.29000000000000015], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2992616824910293], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2997112554353996], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3014637641993687], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3023214821053817], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3023214821053817], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3023214821053817], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.30413796664530085], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.30934250133397495], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.31000000000000033], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.31000000000000033], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.31000000000000033], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3199999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3199999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3199999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.32000000000000006], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3222380099028134], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3299999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.33477287468752415], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.33999999999999997], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.34127621276770503], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3429624264829242], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3542874469894175], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3800000000000003], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.38325328730185815], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3999999999999998], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3999999999999998], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3999999999999998], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.4018789076455276], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.41979258167011385], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.42000000000000015], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.43133943632970745], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.45297764052081696], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.46], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.503689651137079], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5234062898885513], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5301405599751782], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.55], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6016962923148078], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6980792675624693], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.704204535468365], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8235240297332376], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8235240297332376], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8235240297332376]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu make a public appearance or statement by October 15, 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/getby/will-chinas-defense-minister-li-sha", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "A public appearance is defined as any event, meeting, or function where Li Shangfu is seen and is reported by major news outlets.\"\n\n\"A statement is defined as any official communication, interview, or announcement made by or on behalf of Li Shangfu.\"\n\n\"Social media posts, rumors, or unofficial sources will not be considered as valid evidence of a public appearance or statement.\"\n\n\"Resolution source: Official Chinese government websites, press releases, or major international news outlets.\"\n\n\"Expiry date: October 15, 2023.", "date_begin": "2023-09-15", "date_close": "2023-10-16", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Security & Defense", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-15\", 0.2808988764044944], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.33783756592429354], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.344530929946743], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3507592118755843], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.36769767455313357], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.3964654939532601], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.3399999999999999], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.34], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.3400000000000001], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.34260180638330734], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.3453731587807607], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.3471126360638568], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.36341411235577864], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.36341411235577864], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.2804266177289721], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.29000000000000026], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.30490471832401117], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.32755036943886817], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3300000000000002], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3389371437883499], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.34302223993755465], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.3496729931275564], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.36341411235577864], [\"2023-09-17\", 0.36341411235577864], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.2561411017697081], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.25658898761064614], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.264032711357828], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.27316101073776683], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.2740916872352015], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.27859416937432246], [\"2023-09-18\", 0.2809922848696631], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.22686426825945047], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.22933131831223813], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.22957813991093537], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.23014545437284295], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.23014545437284295], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.23014545437284295], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.23014545437284298], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.23054877295799822], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.23516701242346882], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.2359332177793783], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.23686635474337744], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.23821060875853514], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.2432474216910331], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.249125243545911], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.2563807623841412], [\"2023-09-19\", 0.27111320526833166], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.24444598085116728], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.3066090846659724], [\"2023-09-20\", 0.32559426329764085], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3120228214795863], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.3214367335995045], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.3023324481034445], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.30407415643348856], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.30583118890147637], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.25036782850510286], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.26511019832426314], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.2955918854394295], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.22719241670127002], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.23453073681118075], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.2380436958984525], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.2309464037592643], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.22332212758050124], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.16858937103702884], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.19500601784896676], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1334860808997998], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.1387152841491035], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.15479415322134993], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.12096738382028341], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.12153883984841801], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.12637961680115678], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.1292577605909306], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.12931062176778127], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.13071355091694825], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.13416255319058065], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.13790252564988476], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.13851045524416036], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.11382023509377331], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.11562164499435836], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.1174699240103845], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.11936675502104303], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.1213138973651723], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.12331319100657621], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.12536656096098325], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.12747602200297287], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.12964368367257828], [\"2023-10-02\", 0.13187175560276435], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.10315837625597743], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.10315837625597743], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.10315837625597743], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.10327857104702781], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.10396631032465833], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.10550497774141179], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.10708123344963726], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.10869634889181849], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.10959368784532278], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.11035165012480275], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.10285888849743738], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.07454311992246712], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0804310042352368], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.08402772140645579], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.08510090551219682], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0863432040119942], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.08962805700401782], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09204232575804568], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.07324236363605159], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.07493686012349098], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.05387422705224785], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.05581771483752838], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.05581771483752838], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.05927853486827872], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.048222362008229366], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.03857012566473894], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.038646512701061654], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.017584773013648577], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.023454565113566847], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.03354926284559332], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.007339527614808504], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.007696713950507056], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.008506357783963324], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.010026348912663852], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.010638389401453213], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.011145322488851389], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.011316510129453077], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.011316510129453082], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.013899769372828333], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.016155907996205116], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.016237070839582576]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 15 (Dec 16): Will the Detroit Lions beat the Denver Broncos?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-15-dec-14-will-the-detroit", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Ford Field at 5:15 PST on December 14, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.66], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.6934484167216829], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.7350700977669773], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.6279755172543405], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6320586554032879], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6692531195962648], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6692531195962648], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.6984657709862279], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6594848942000153], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6594848942000153], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.6594848942000153], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-15\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6171313576490265], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6504854167951885], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6619968024205938], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.67], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.67], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.6713839926172981], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.683380539957892], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5018763239439353], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5527704248083358], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5700000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5863097898872658], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6300000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6313574730336782], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6324373392303385], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6400000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6400000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6400000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6435701504408603], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6499999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6607605460979398], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6611372008024768], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6685111327903875], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6696930678387032], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6700000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6700000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6700000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6700000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6700000000000004], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6707832567580188], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6777947560062213], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6799999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6799999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6799999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6799999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6799999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6800000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6800000000000003], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6836222661818318], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6900000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6919015508210188], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6987411621942607], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7163307249015006], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7215070332574922], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7333985060727782], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7344940444292245], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7512731927999241], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.81], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8299999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8327469364364602], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.864491587705179], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8703437541221449], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9300000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.931355680908254], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9396430507707871], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9399999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9399999999999998], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9416197955100285], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9427394485708489], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9451313765282566], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9491435476366463], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9500000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9524507496856517], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9544292413720125], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9577065769774749], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9591603654048221], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9593120346700035], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9621900106616307], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9636726885357376], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9685541885742608], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9691208518395822], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9691208518395823], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9716466944473758], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9754477095279358], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9771811720041486], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9781348023571929], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9854404120591148], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9890043198630094], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9890043198630094], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9890043198630094], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9913057459646281], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9928947423719967], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.994047041416596], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9949146461532087], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9955875772847066], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.999069565417095]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Greece win vs. USA in the group stage at the 2023 FIBA World Cup?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-greece-win-vs-usa-in-the-group", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place on August 28, 2023", "date_begin": "2023-08-27", "date_close": "2023-08-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-27\", 0.06129551648309662], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1164475053635883], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.1499999999999999], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.15700489895470202], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.17], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.2159319434664043], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.2800000000000001], [\"2023-08-27\", 0.45], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.00043340219413144805], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0008180874755374107], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0008233061375768095], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0011694038529206194], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0019632102159928967], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.002633484463319818], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.005047909816230175], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.007032075909160617], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.008663497441084076], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.01542093768485329], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.02414443912053192], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.027063895230043395], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.027248512818226718], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.030704928331771995], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.0309751659424735], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.03538866345761394], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.03575607673060169], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.040000000000000015], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.047157875032663714], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.05325278162326604], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.05927061156171615], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.05943745081566663], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.07999999999999993], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.07999999999999993], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.07999999999999993], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.08882187505919947]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Minnesota Vikings?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-las-veg", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Allegiant Stadium at 1:05 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.4881153226810424], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.40015617223599853], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22000000000000003], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.22999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.27], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.32000000000000023], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.32000000000000023], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3300000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3300000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3300000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3300000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3300000000000002], 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[\"2023-12-11\", 0.21000000000000016], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.21000000000000016], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.21000000000000016]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-chicago", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Soldier Field at 10:00 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.35697060659699253], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.15337782693845978], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.21999999999999995], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.2048923398558123], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.1552819289670317], [\"2023-11-13\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-11-19\", 0.19020390984590774], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.3814012142938326], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.3858808873759158], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.39999999999999986], [\"2023-12-05\", 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0.9296147276297755], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9500000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9502730080029969], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9905731193318627], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9999727456129476]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Nov 15?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-kevin-mccarthy-remain-speaker-0f3414e32ebf", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through Nov 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.", "date_begin": "2023-09-14", "date_close": "2023-10-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-14\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.64], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.6559538079042971], [\"2023-09-14\", 0.8021116153511035], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.7821578994877925], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.7979893790540286], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.7999999999999998], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.8120791244665329], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.8308708176700802], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.8373080764537711], [\"2023-09-15\", 0.8523349264490598], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.7905820139705397], [\"2023-09-16\", 0.82], 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8.649189105895025e-05], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0024253552168859577], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.005882663888393269], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.010609274318828637], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01185557078023126], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.012917600218836534], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.013762225100030095], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.015377505300147335], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01712454968552801], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.018695624138312786], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01905572067681222], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01905572067681222], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.01905572067681222], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.020912121838008755], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.020912121838008755], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.020912121838008755], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.027170008776118942], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.032919852099781044], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.04525269548754787], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.05633223916672484], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.060678193671363845], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.0659258031747576], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.08030424919369158], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.08081367061160834], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.08081367061160834], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.08081367061160834], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.08703196150330013], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.08999999999999998], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09780531764075881], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09845367020678061], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09857102662103844], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09857102662103844], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.09857102662103844], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.10000000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.10000000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.10000000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1078382611170358], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.11999999999999987], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1200000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.12836281044371653], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.12836281044371653], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.12836281044371653], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.13018214420197155], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1500000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1500000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1500000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1510060471349743], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.15250595251914822], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.18094446813344703], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19000000000000003], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19050856431979835], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19050856431979835], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19050856431979835], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19092728861599292], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.19675043060201666], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20559153680489448], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20601690302943063], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.206276965261223], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.20923967698581927], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.21154141810925253], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.21748072647895386], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.22179705065328048], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.22630844875253794], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.22974195995117927], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.24638988921809993], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.2500000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.32041233473289993], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3206847400323912], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3341340722300088], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.33971334554514565], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3400000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3500000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.35414087840868047], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3600000000000002], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.3751314176516574], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.43072380374988617], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.49274269630220185], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5743498366576694], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5743498366576694], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.5743498366576694], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.6084458480563063]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Miami Dolphins beat the New York Jets?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-15-dec-17-will-the-miami-d", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Hard Rock Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 17, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.7191011235955056], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.732848250463218], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.7727563717274516], [\"2023-12-04\", 0.8212903026797161], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.8099999999999999], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.719578650117571], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3652229736187356], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4755844064791519], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4755844064791521], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4755844064791524], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.51], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5600000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5639667763151811], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5639667763151811], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5639667763151811], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5886519638278037], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5886519638278037], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5886519638278037], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.588651963827804], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6142671865411399], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6270167941990337], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6270167941990337], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6270167941990337], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6523280335057623], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6680680357181981], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6680680357181981], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6680680357181981], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6680680357181981], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.674234941237657], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6903452791131877], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.6939812223162076], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000990744723427], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000990744723427], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7000990744723427], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7010047381911896], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7152624090138663], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7180299485325201], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7209009970374697], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7299439625882767], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.733957116375487], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7400000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7420316183114364], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7420316183114364], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7420316183114364], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.757282168491013], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.774262576009523], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.782835663765813], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7933318594357449], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7984384656078617], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7984384656078617], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.7984384656078617], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8116753461780449], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8257273884965614], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8300000000000002], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.877670029335024], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8986547921932276], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8986547921932276], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.8986547921932276], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9000000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.95], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9543163197733784], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9824654454974547], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9879979562998961], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9899866545735992], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.9996464598116612]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will a hurricane hit the State of Florida any time during the month of September 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AGG/will-a-hurricane-hit-the-state-of-f", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "date_begin": "2023-08-21", "date_close": "2023-10-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Environment & Energy", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-21\", 0.35784345123957156], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.5516770945140826], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.5644452512676872], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.65], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.6616794694368281], [\"2023-08-21\", 0.7375870159160858], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.4753479998798674], [\"2023-08-22\", 0.48], 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0.547513164144686], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.547513164144686], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.547513164144686], [\"2023-08-26\", 0.5499142823286611], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.54], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.553654953131479], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.57], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.5975214493610254], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.600024677171813], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5479038102510445], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.568393451649845], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5699999999999998], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5699999999999998], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5699999999999998], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5864691921057947], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5939427204996721], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5945875835686535], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5947780354345393], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5953447713991813], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5958110945764357], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5984805757472652], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.5993261036322542], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6081385701336781], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.61], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6105395171771932], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6106409536555366], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6136299193158014], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6152734197901305], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6207405568834686], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6264199789221426], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6271443402450695], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6296498805692612], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6296498805692612], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6296498805692612], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6296498805692612], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.63], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6322358601812523], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6327414172296721], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6365802216977572], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6463552116254204], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.6693278465947567], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7289308718380706], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7383126428360501], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7467474651998225], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7467474651998225], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7467474651998225], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.748306491772911], [\"2023-08-29\", 0.7487659377509787], 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0.04243733093117659], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.04352439156667051], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.04455564646488906], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.03451251549004849], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.03479927533643238], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.035577184978062164], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.03861870413355255], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.04046248271345329], [\"2023-09-23\", 0.05861191584563854], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.043187619603944453], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.045929496456512446], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.04643814556036348], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.04690768852855763], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.06017767949423159], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.06129866692413647], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.02733629095145822], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.02765407354827879], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.034103688317261946], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.024833694922628217], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.02507860768467579], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.025295470289344438], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.02554697870933309], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.025637475631538783], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.021089248970104828], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.014939335497093177], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.016130524720754942], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.017519844585272955], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.01453709737874663], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.014539226259154377], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.01493490478355154], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.014937119898718432], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.016428169996791482], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.016428169996791482], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.016428169996791482], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.01693203263956591], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.019938045125791934], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.019938045125791934], [\"2023-09-29\", 0.019938045125791934], [\"2023-09-30\", 0.012579828613465937], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.011015722860643638], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.011018229364693934]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NBA (Oct 24, 2023): Will the Golden State Warriors beat the Phoenix Suns?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nba-oct-24-2023-will-the-golden-sta", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at 7:00pm PDT on October 24, 2023.\n\nA game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game.\n\nOne reason to bet on _this_ market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n\nThis is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the 50M market cost).", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.5475113122171945], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6267149456900437], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.6599999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-10-16\", 0.7658783278490161], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.6043833241920658], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-18\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.58], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6128441983772188], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6128441983772188], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.6128441983772188], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5399999999999999], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.55], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.55], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5599999999999998], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5599999999999998], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.56], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.5600000000000003], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.00011970377654104767], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.00011970377654104767], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.00011970377654104767], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.006098344522405348], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.022218117541810002], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.026565099858741687], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.030484825013360438], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.032222782604692864], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.03974572378262603], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.049999999999999996], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.049999999999999996], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1065394297320725], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.1257700756302248], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.15], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.15712769660316903], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.16918513867290466], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.18999999999999997], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.252474110891574], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.31349194047427775], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.36], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.37172435697601935], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.37172435697601935], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.37172435697601935], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.39247641576446846], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4067510792972126], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.43000000000000005], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.43091362137273886], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.43222531798148145], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4699999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4832396081542966], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.49492825577917965], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.49647647480793333], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.49669630367150785], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.49669630367150785], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5182164694988134], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5182164694988134], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5182164694988134], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5192815709260337], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5199999999999999], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5404201268678441], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5404457928897789], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.549864230490928], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5525918258763298], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.5800000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.6499740329721044]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-8-oct-29-will-the-green-ba", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Lambeau Field at 10:00 PDT on October 29, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-29", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-29", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-11\", 0.4445642383361954], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4803996925441968], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.48999999999999994], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.57], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.6495884219038337], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.44182606915440487], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4799999999999999], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.42950832367851044], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.35952437086035877], [\"2023-10-24\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.42], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.42000000000000004], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4299999999999998], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4400000000000003], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4845585331722479], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.4199999999999999], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.44471595158099403], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.4600000000000001], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.4726422261791927], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.4787420002563317], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.4852986004101008], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.00046467791929214315], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.00304276615827106], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.005721747352587131], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.010821224411040085], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.012626247443469074], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.018316848835771404], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.029999999999999995], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.05178800403502974], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.05718053580295771], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.06819516060087567], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.07841076943800096], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.08999999999999994], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.09782630665548048], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11263783228699338], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11330135882333202], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11397083563219247], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11464633303483339], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11532792236471742], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11601576711709055], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11670985098564272], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11741024846475188], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11811703513044501], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11883028765846738], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.11955021864400653], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1202767743470824], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.12101003488825458], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.12175008156402563], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.12249699686663577], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.12325086450422025], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.12401176942133588], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14319466021569158], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14414878880479698], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14511315024494864], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14511315024494864], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14511315024494864], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14608721707356445], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14608721707356445], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14608721707356445], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1470711161477211], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1470711161477211], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1470711161477211], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14806497630293267], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14806497630293267], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14806497630293267], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14906892838755714], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14906892838755714], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.14906892838755714], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.150083105297817], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.150083105297817], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.150083105297817], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.151107642013445], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.151107642013445], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.151107642013445], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1521426756339633], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1521426756339633], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1521426756339633], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15318834541560528], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15318834541560528], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15318834541560528], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15424742083011414], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15424742083011414], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15424742083011414], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15531746489831683], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15531746489831683], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15531746489831683], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.156398624413396], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.156398624413396], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.156398624413396], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15749104849500783], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15749104849500783], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15749104849500783], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15859488862983945], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15859488862983945], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.15859488862983945], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1597102987128681], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1597102987128681], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1597102987128681], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1608383757803122], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1608383757803122], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1608383757803122], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16197835530259935], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16197835530259935], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16197835530259935], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16313039896614362], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16313039896614362], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16313039896614362], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16429467104368722], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16429467104368722], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16429467104368722], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16547133843931125], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16547133843931125], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16547133843931125], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16666057073420248], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16666057073420248], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16666057073420248], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16786430025107593], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16786430025107593], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.16786430025107593], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1690809751653274], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1690809751653274], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1690809751653274], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.17000000000000012], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.17031077397743669], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.17031077397743669], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.17031077397743669], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.17155387806709158], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.18660620689978558], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.18806073153899247], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.18806073153899247], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.18806073153899247], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.19192982304474215], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.19192982304474215], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.19192982304474215], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1929207227870841], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1929207227870841], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1929207227870841], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.1934130313506378], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.19923456809648465], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.20559099178631943], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2083841763462162], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2083841763462162], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2083841763462162], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.211950916793364], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.21834621565318182], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.224773418654392], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22603496036258747], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22603496036258747], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22603496036258747], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22791799849838967], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22791799849838967], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22791799849838967], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22982376698539173], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22982376698539173], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.22982376698539173], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2312190178937251], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2313582423173093], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23175260356933886], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23175260356933886], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23175260356933886], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2337048514248062], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2337048514248062], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2337048514248062], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2356808592299366], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2356808592299366], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.2356808592299366], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.23768974380714744], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.24179527588174787], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.27346637102734644], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.27346637102734644], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.27346637102734644], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.33107705629801837], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.33107705629801837], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.33107705629801837], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3434905390945735], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3434905390945735], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3434905390945735], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.34999999999999987], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36898392268849756], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36898392268849756], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36898392268849756], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3691214431756861], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.36999999999999994], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.38000000000000017], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.38000000000000017], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.38000000000000017], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.38194659681893284], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.382667908276103], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.382667908276103], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.382667908276103], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3877713298203278], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3879197027193612], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.39301266826848275], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.3964720480212154], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.39999999999999963], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4007297574897703], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4007297574897703], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4007297574897703], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4046070898563047], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4063604945456155], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4074005802440507], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4074005802440507], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4074005802440507], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4100000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4100000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4100000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4106074394708755], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4284681298350356], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4341386349158005], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.43999999999999995], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4400000000000002], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.46479508018300725]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the U.S. Federal Reserve increase interest rates by more than 1% by the end of 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/d/will-the-us-federal-reserve-increas", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if the U.S. Federal Reserve increases the federal funds rate by more than 1% by the end of 2023, as confirmed by the Federal Reserve's official Open Market Operations page. The increase will be calculated by comparing the federal funds rate at the end of 2023 to the rate at the start of the year. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.", "date_begin": "2023-06-17", "date_close": "2024-01-01", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-17\", 0.30000000000000004], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.322372268281254], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.3378378378378379], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.337837837837838], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.337837837837838], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.34876413088915464], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.3499999999999999], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.405053686144029], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.41653101081760346], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.44919959734114534], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.44919959734114534], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.44919959734114534], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.44919959734114534], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.44919959734114534], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.44919959734114534], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.44919959734114534], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.5000000000000001], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.35251560080192296], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.36144628349674335], [\"2023-06-18\", 0.36967339835084134], [\"2023-06-19\", 0.36881687373416244], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.1957070568864254], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.44919959734114534], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.44919959734114534], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.1743048609713027], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.18452175344389782], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.15360987994628061], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1698236749989688], [\"2023-12-12\", 0.06477382577576801], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.01491035692006118], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.016770913496446646], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.020000000000000028], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.020000000000000028], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.020000000000000028], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.026112687440447674], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.02614885183874419], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.026815460893532726], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.03562952627488893], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.04295432910339965], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.04338198161366456], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.0008719614276725715], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.0011128100825391425], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.0016080444594481894], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.0019672596553403027], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.007633517549312586], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.008745463983912108], [\"2023-12-14\", 0.010265939162105593], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.0019737260636204135]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the New England Patriots beat the Los Angeles Chargers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-13-dec-3-will-the-new-engl", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Gillette Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 3, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.5004629387459981], [\"2023-09-22\", 0.44786867982739303], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.49583978611347623], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.4591150378665583], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.28671150399484363], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.3061677086474366], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.33000000000000024], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.3533632566193118], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.3536245370064905], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.3944545697917643], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.41], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.32000000000000006], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.28920798567102507], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.3032322597448952], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.00040667317360965706], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.0017337729313766175], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.006229988626813392], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.006683065541408003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.013167031083973168], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.013167031083973168], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.013167031083973168], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.021961200560786886], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.021961200560786886], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.021961200560786886], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.023268248687397873], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.023268248687397873], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.023268248687397873], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.024705346586654905], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.024705346586654905], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.024705346586654905], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.02504415970993523], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.026290982329047526], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.026290982329047526], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.026290982329047526], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.028047115734981122], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.028047115734981122], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.028047115734981122], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.02999999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.02999999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.02999999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.030000000000000058], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.030000000000000058], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.030000000000000058], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.031631207013137395], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.03999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.05737145943184576], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06371119416871109], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06999999999999999], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06999999999999999], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.06999999999999999], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.07124595234621627], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08022082557598621], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08030439754969991], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.08999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.09133708402211975], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.09999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.10497448237556507], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.10954743412961804], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.10999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.10999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.10999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.10999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.11000000000000007], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.11086637446009528], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.11136868854459353], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.12], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.12000000000000004], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.12999999999999992], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.12999999999999992], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.12999999999999992], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.12999999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13000000000000014], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13286300869236897], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13286300869236897], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.13999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14000000000000012], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1409261033254793], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14639473839572456], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14962863163253368], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.14999999999999997], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15000000000000016], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15000000000000016], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15000000000000016], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.15861433929015717], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.16000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.16000000000000006], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.16000000000000017], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.16000000000000017], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.16000000000000017], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.16490658338414693], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.16999999999999982], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.16999999999999982], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.16999999999999982], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1700000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1700000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1700000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.17999999999999983], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.17999999999999983], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.17999999999999988], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.17999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.17999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.17999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.18999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19000000000000006], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1900000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1900000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.1900000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19294702595715024], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19999999999999987], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19999999999999987], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19999999999999987], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19999999999999993], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.20000000000000007], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.20000000000000007], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.20000000000000007], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.20395337748865416], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2099999999999999], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2099999999999999], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2099999999999999], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2142631949978854], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.21999999999999986], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.21999999999999997], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.21999999999999997], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.22], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.22000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.22000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.22000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.23], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.23591873804813557], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2399999999999999], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.23999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.23999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.23999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.23999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.23999999999999996], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.24000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.24000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.24493567815381193], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.25000000000000006], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.25000000000000006], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.25000000000000017], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2599999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2599999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2599999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2599999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2700000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2700000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2799999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.28000000000000014], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.29], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.2900000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.30000000000000016], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.30000000000000016], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.30000000000000016], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3000000000000002], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.30000000000000027], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.30000000000000027], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.30000000000000027], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3199999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.31999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.31999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.31999999999999995], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.32], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3200000000000001], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.32999999999999985], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.32999999999999985], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.32999999999999985], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3300000000000005], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.34000000000000014], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.34000000000000025], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.34000000000000025], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.35], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.35], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.35], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.35000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.35000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.35000000000000003], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3599999999999998], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.38457084153190874], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.3899999999999998]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 12 (Nov 24): Will the New York Jets beat the Miami Dolphins?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-12-nov-24-will-the-new-yor", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 12:00 PST on November 24, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-11-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.3378378378378379], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.22139738979722257], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.26641328609678655], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.26641328609678655], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.26641328609678655], [\"2023-11-16\", 0.1808787288136231], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.21588875567846458], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.21588875567846458], [\"2023-11-20\", 0.21588875567846458], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.20999999999999977], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.21588875567846458], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.21588875567846458], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.21588875567846458], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.21588875567846458], [\"2023-11-21\", 0.21588875567846458], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0001877899328173947], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.001927058052236617], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.004435626314383936], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.009471600211116772], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.00949147087981878], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.00949147087981878], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.00949147087981878], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.010556949792321956], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0203341478096066], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0203341478096066], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0203341478096066], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.02093148616185721], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.021489319396233626], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.02151059344422245], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.02151059344422245], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.02151059344422245], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.02691414889496184], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.028394634130742884], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.03000000000000002], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.03000000000000002], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.04000000000000001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.04000000000000007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.04000000000000007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.050000000000000044], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.06000000000000001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.06116678291107198], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.06116678291107198], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.06116678291107198], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.06999999999999995], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.06999999999999995], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.06999999999999995], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.07000000000000002], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.07999999999999989], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.07999999999999989], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.0799999999999999], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.08000000000000004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.08000000000000004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.08000000000000004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.08999999999999996], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.08999999999999996], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.09999999999999994], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.10000000000000005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.10000000000000005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.10000000000000005], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.12], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.12000000000000001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.12000000000000001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.12000000000000001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13000000000000003], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13082102170006293], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13082102170006293], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13082102170006293], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.13999999999999999], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14000000000000004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14000000000000004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14000000000000007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14000000000000007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14000000000000007], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14000000000000012], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14999999999999994], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14999999999999994], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.14999999999999994], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.15000000000000008], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.15000000000000008], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.1500000000000001], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.15999999999999995], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.15999999999999995], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.15999999999999998], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.15999999999999998], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.15999999999999998], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.15999999999999998], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.17000000000000004], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.17559346810084728], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.1799999999999998], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.1799999999999998], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.17999999999999994], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.19034760155678226], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.19999999999999973], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.19999999999999996], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.21], [\"2023-11-24\", 0.236665392468744], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0001409631170552268], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.0001409631170552268], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.00035580013378271085], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.00035580013378271085], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.00035580013378271085], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.00035580013378271085]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Novak Djokovic reach the Semifinals of the US Open 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/VaibhavGupta/will-novak-djokovic-reach-the-semif", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "date_begin": "2023-09-02", "date_close": "2023-09-06", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-06", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-02\", 0.7244217642153337], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7641509433962264], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.78], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.78], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.78], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7858085851504716], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.7932492136868339], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8204376263502162], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.823798770409334], [\"2023-09-02\", 0.8299999999999998], 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0.9977542564918154], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9977552997675276], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9980246059957895], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.9980303104861407]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-atlanta", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 1.1605599756261238e-05], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.0043519094593333675], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.01000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.022537053890866167], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.022537053890866167], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.022537053890866167], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.023645667763407624], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.023645667763407624], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.023645667763407624], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.030229322037998132], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.030229322037998132], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.030229322037998132], 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A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-17", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-17", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.3124227622306841], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.41618155085235586], [\"2023-12-11\", 0.40000000000000024], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.15298929695636793], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.15865098451012402], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.19777340840034857], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.27149291185890734], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.33143024365210055], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.368022564245452], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.3799999999999999], [\"2023-12-13\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-12-14\", 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0.010508811234344518], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.010156073913685948]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the New England Patriots beat the New York Jets?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-18-jan-5-will-the-new-engl", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Gillette Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.5118846773189574], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.5654218643207245], [\"2023-10-29\", 0.6237479887643074], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.4474887361460215], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.4474887361460215], [\"2023-12-16\", 0.4474887361460215], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4837085128816146], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.49999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.49999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.49999999999999994], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5300000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5300000000000001], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5816348225253382], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.4627725715370023], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.5300390255345712], [\"2024-01-07\", 8.997259895193744e-05], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.0011907440221295574], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.002067509024091693], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.002955986412009801], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.003712354095801475], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.004807438158360827], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.009457517900813386], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.026429352686264555], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.18999999999999992], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.20084172693134872], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.21966537565020636], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2236578028152261], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.2908753434361133], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3026034697083026], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31668515904478944], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.32335705445846097], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41023029851220144], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41972135421771545], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.46231253727171556], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.47365377926172103], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48062664457578197], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4877014142035383], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.494878097203432], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5021596569031391], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5095428424362374], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5170272558203729], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5300000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.537738289624404], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.54], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5458969064940672], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5458969064940672], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.55], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5755039628908495], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5755039628908499], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5755039628908503]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the New England Patriots?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-6-oct-15-will-the-las-vega", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Allegiant Stadium at 13:05 PDT on October 15, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-06\", 0.6977580465445613], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.3890912294439462], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.53], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6246171676921284], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-10-10\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.62], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-12\", 0.6400000000000002], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5499999999999999], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5739542387943649], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5899999999999999], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.61], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6100000000000001], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6243998916241891], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.628789550147615], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6315155814548034], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5946387708401439], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6000000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6202567923879398], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6202567923879398], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6202567923879398], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6258663245375127], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6271542200618647], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6271542200618647], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6271542200618647], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6326683826683825], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6326683826683825], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6326683826683825], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6333721774375501], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.64], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6400000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6429193028885358], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6429193028885358], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6429193028885358], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6518759018759019], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6518759018759019], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6518759018759019], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6607266409905179], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6607266409905179], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6607266409905179], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.67], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6700000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.68], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6800000000000003], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6800000000000003], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6800000000000003], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6814972858559833], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6847290640394086], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6847290640394086], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6847290640394086], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.69], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6963470319634704], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7071307300509339], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7071307300509339], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7071307300509339], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.713064713064713], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.713064713064713], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.713064713064713], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.72], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7300000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7399999999999998], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7399999999999998], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7399999999999998], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.74], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7400000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7400000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7400000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7435064935064936], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7435064935064936], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7435064935064936], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.75], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7566307199067327], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7566307199067328], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7609728823036063], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7609728823036063], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7609728823036063], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7701298701298702], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7701298701298702], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7701298701298702], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.78], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7820537553625648], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7894471376976572], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.79], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.79], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.79], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7975140336808341], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8030303030303031], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8030303030303031], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8030303030303031], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8073363549022942], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8073363549022942], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8073363549022942], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8082437275985663], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8082437275985663], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8099999999999998], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.81], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8103993212756985], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8119392684610077], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8119392684610077], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8119392684610077], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8187509547326214], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8187509547326214], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8187509547326214], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8231448518856705], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8231448518856705], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8231448518856705], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.824609413162633], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.824609413162633], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.824609413162633], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8254954155575273], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.827186327690598], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.83], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8305555555555555], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8305555555555555], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8305555555555555], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8334278376477834], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8334278376477834], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8334278376477834], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8371794871794871], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8371794871794872], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8371794871794872], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8399999999999999], 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0.86], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.86], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8600000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8600000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8640350877192983], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8640350877192983], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8640350877192983], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8669059349325378], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8684979019186079], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8693548387096774], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8693548387096774], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8693548387096774], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8694063919284765], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8699999999999998], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8700000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8742559523809524], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8742559523809524], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8742559523809524], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8742559523809528], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8742559523809528], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8742559523809528], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.878523764394216], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8787878787878788], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.886904761904762], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.886904761904762], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8869047619047621], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8900000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8900000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9052419354838711], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9052419354838711], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9570682523669677], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9604651196416991], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9636110528762815], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9636110528762815], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9636110528762815], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9870968663604094], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9934376812636362], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9949081647545333], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9966216203780346], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9993785299614147]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Charlotte beat Inter Miami? \u26bd MLS (Oct 21)", "url": "https://manifold.markets/UniversalFC/will-charlotte-beat-inter-miami-mls", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Charlotte wins = yes / Inter Miami wins or draws = no", "date_begin": "2023-10-02", "date_close": "2023-10-22", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-22", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-02\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.4804646940089115], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.53720391191613], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.4700583417568056], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.49000000000000005], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.5025296133777222], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.5100000000000001], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.5205000614114044], [\"2023-10-04\", 0.5257932537218043], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5221084512172135], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.5351657001324469], [\"2023-10-11\", 0.49985626848942716], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.48022583382767975], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.4898195292564201], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.5071401376858898], [\"2023-10-19\", 0.5228040009653576], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.4677358104575279], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.48212751725351133], [\"2023-10-20\", 0.5061880756104244], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.4537999750563631], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5100000000000003], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5100000000000003], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5100000000000003], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5303025374000474], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9962160446808305], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9994248568162257], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9997258821009046], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9997258821009046], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.9997258821009046]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Doug Burgum make it onto the debate stage of an RNC sanctioned debate during the Republican primaries?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-doug-burgum-make-it-onto-the-d", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "If Doug Burgum is invited to and attends an RNC sanctioned presidential primary debate, and makes it onto the stage as a debate participant along with other candidates, then this market will resolve to YES.", "date_begin": "2023-06-17", "date_close": "2023-08-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-08-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-17\", 0.21007177008986508], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.28089887640449446], [\"2023-06-17\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.49], [\"2023-07-12\", 0.5603849003858515], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.62], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.66], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.7480934349289083], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.7605100919192187], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.791223529757751], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.8000000000000003], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.8341795366437038], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.8345450648955551], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-07-25\", 0.8974480322579333], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7185444806232569], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.8083869152181643], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.86], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.8900000000000001], [\"2023-08-08\", 0.9291520592931963], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.89], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.91], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.94], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.949993902984247], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.95794397795046], [\"2023-08-24\", 0.9998956962814213]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the New York Giants beat the Philadelphia Eagles?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-18-jan-5-will-the-new-york", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-08", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.24544146665938416], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.2808988764044944], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.2053505982119105], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.2238307172353137], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.27657092005680906], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.28999999999999987], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.3124622943224146], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.305829263603698], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.2838117771392373], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.329886447522909], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3000000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3107487564950057], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.31999999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3200000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3200000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3200000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.328170323246185], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.33000000000000024], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.33000000000000024], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.33000000000000024], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.34], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.34], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.34], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.350337903185948], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.35999999999999993], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.36000000000000004], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3600000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3700000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3799999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3799999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3799999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3800000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3800000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3800000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3800000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3800000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3800000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3800000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.38999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.38999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.38999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.38999999999999996], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4100000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.41999999999999993], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.43999999999999984], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4564668563657576], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.49], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.49], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5399999999999995], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5399999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5500000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5600000000000004], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5640374510007248], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5900000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5900000000000003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6500000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6600000000000004], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6996776973549299], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7099999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7499999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7700000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.783722510652647], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.81], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8200000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8200000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8299999999999997], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.84], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8600000000000002], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.93], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.93], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.93], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.93], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.93], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.94], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.95], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.95], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.95], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.953719057696564], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.97], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.97], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.97], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.97], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.97], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.98], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.98], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.98], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.985677516084027], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9880537504253127], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9883339676868823], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.99], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.99], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.99], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.99], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.99], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.99], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.99], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9959887196451843], [\"2024-01-08\", 0.9998134089448806]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Alcaraz play in the 2023 US Open Finals?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/d/will-alcaraz-play-in-the-2023-us-op", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "date_begin": "2023-08-25", "date_close": "2023-09-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-25\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-08-28\", 0.581930019455037], [\"2023-09-04\", 0.6248278654382066], [\"2023-09-06\", 0.6559180518347538], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7012715477398768], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7012715477398768], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7012715477398768], [\"2023-09-07\", 0.7470667766174041], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7626176981852197], [\"2023-09-08\", 0.7898452505512833], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0015755361290306828], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0016895616573409024], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0020277778260008963], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0023735526339659237], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.002723099008063928], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.002723099008063928], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.002723099008063928], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0030181646997866065], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0030360044028497177], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0030558266526201534], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.004527742962760424], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.009075876658454189], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.02732582775331193], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.02732582775331193], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.02732582775331193], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.03189309362006572], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.07999999999999992], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.07999999999999992], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.07999999999999992], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.07999999999999996], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.0894444370101173], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.09080150098304626], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.09083434756986111], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.09342876836582063], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.09460871182023761], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.09899229563962257], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.09967137046467538], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.10833886567399907], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.11], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.11055702145846988], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.11270254763689418], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.1192708109028741], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.12744482125509984], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.12999999999999992], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.13999999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.13999999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.13999999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.15000000000000016], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.15000000000000016], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.15000000000000016], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.151368520278885], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.1674481916287105], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.17000000000000007], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.17000000000000007], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.17000000000000007], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.17504931264193557], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.17625649699595905], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.1843359791880107], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.18770090347216348], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.19440738642216257], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.19999999999999993], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2017628928718273], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.21943380424423048], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.22197273274591675], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.22999999999999995], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.22999999999999995], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.22999999999999995], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.22999999999999998], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.23000000000000004], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.23000000000000004], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.23000000000000004], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.23999999999999982], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24000000000000013], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24000000000000013], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24000000000000013], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24176100952205012], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24176100952205012], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24176100952205012], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24343725005940012], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24343725005940012], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.24343725005940012], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.25393947507521775], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.27172308788333566], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.27172308788333566], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.27172308788333566], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2739438614336395], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2739438614336395], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2739438614336395], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.28982502536835186], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.28999999999999987], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.28999999999999987], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.28999999999999987], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.2899999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.29077879721584965], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3013071569609701], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3013071569609701], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3013071569609701], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3127792498939355], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3127792498939355], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3127792498939355], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3149473453137498], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3149473453137498], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3149473453137498], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3305766985173133], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.35591697015976453], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.36218770344526074], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3697518426612203], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.36999999999999994], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.3805491693823186], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.38120744779074495], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.384241284203971], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.39], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.39], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.39], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.39999999999999997], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.40720412228457414], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4077349669685594], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.40953750641376224], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.41022677808787456], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4121182865688611], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.42190865643468556], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4264429923680208], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.43000000000000005], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.43000000000000005], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.43000000000000005], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.43000000000000016], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4353762274616381], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4353762274616381], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4353762274616381], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.43842873427823137], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.43842873427823137], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.43842873427823137], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.44000000000000017], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.46075294945170686], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.46075294945170686], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.46075294945170686], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4800000000000002], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4800000000000002], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4800000000000002], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.49132875569787937], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.4979574631590147], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.5078943540550596], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.5078943540550598], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.5341989282029272], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.5582122633886182], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.5699999999999998], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.5720228211883406], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.5870715121279841], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6143880013621307], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6554733395267206], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6853336267248428], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.6999999999999996], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7155888397400291], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7299999999999998], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7461411340521694], [\"2023-09-09\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0004838328434540496], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0014536619422543739], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0014576108746509684], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0017844425604612954], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0019538951501185905], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.001966836515134966], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.002045671991508217], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0033241457002179736], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.0038668478021584634], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.005565998130380867], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.010000000000000005], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.010000000000000005], [\"2023-09-10\", 0.010000000000000005]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Indianapolis Colts?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-cincinn", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Paycor Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.6621621621621621], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.49851204139602134], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.49851204139602134], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.49851204139602134], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.4303258754744961], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.5], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.46326162901587625], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.52], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5221565741421699], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.53], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5455594556048992], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5500000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.56], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.57], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5799999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.58], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.59], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5900000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6099999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6200000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6200000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.631845410907423], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.631845410907423], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.64], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.66], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.73], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7400000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7400000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7400000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7499999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7499999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7499999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7502692953139674], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7600000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.79], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8100000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8530227894063943], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8867557160554989], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9430471421308443], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9588141093395575], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.96], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9656268511939647], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9998994267812952]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Real Madrid beat Valencia during regular time on Sat, Nov 11, 2023? - La Liga", "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-real-madrid-beat-valencia-duri", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "\ud83d\udcc5 Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 \u23f0 Start Time (UTC): 20:00\n\n\ud83c\udfc6 Competition: La Liga\n\n\ud83d\udd11 Market Resolution:\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n- Real Madrid has more goals\n\nThis market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:\n- Both teams have an equal number of goals\n- Valencia has more goals\n\n(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)\n\n\ud83d\udd50 Market Closing Time:\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.", "date_begin": "2023-11-07", "date_close": "2023-11-11", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-11", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-07\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-11-07\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-11-09\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7380982183712765], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7887322939079682], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.81], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8655768490753774], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.8776286142909078], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7481424630388323], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7500482126126294], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.77], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8036531927876107], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8174643198297897], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8299999999999997], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8300000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8435596613507933], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8466663866216668], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8468211378807194], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8500000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8678197282300051], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.88], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8914494671812888], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.8962201023847659], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.919436350794339], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9222032137280088], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.97], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9863992257573787], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.986981622084118], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9889516975305183], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9895767465122347], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9899815965607467], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9932693568687154], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9950252339263129], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9986888961007078], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.999339768196451], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.9995023769995552]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje at UFC 291 go to a decision?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-dustin-poirier-vs-justin-gaeth", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje are scheduled to fight on July 29th, 2023 at a UFC event in Salt Lake City, Utah.\n\nIf the fight goes to a decision or a technical decision, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event, or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, or if the fight ends in a DQ, this market will resolve to N/A.\n\nIf the fight ends in a KO/TKO, submission, technical submission, retirement, or other stoppage, this market will resolve to NO.", "date_begin": "2023-07-26", "date_close": "2023-07-30", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-30", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-07-26\", 0.18868466406243242], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.24000000000000005], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.25999999999999995], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.27473758519591224], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-07-26\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.30999999999999994], [\"2023-07-27\", 0.3342721966957163], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.00018532186902740482], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0006460949829807795], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02317248963947601], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.02682308478917471], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.03151843857288098], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.03772316722755195], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.03772316722755195], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.03772316722755195], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.038226199248409067], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.042203500372261886], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0513091590229825], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0513091590229825], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.0513091590229825], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.06584229456289294], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.09138496830646813], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.10113489470510562], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.11999999999999993], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.15000000000000005], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.15439306288022475], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.21489862638372725], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.23999999999999988], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.24391489576518116], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.2500000000000001], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.26000000000000006], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.28839014392325063], [\"2023-07-30\", 0.294886170032846]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will a stage at the 2023 Tour de France be cancelled?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-a-stage-at-the-2023-tour-de-fr", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolves YES if any of the 21 planned stages for the 2023 Tour de France is cancelled, for example due to extreme weather conditions, road blockages, or safety concerns.", "date_begin": "2023-06-30", "date_close": "2023-07-23", "date_resolve_at": "2023-07-23", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-30\", 0.20000000000000007], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.23584905660377364], [\"2023-06-30\", 0.2808988764044944], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.23], [\"2023-07-01\", 0.26470588235294124], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.06972601644196473], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.2899999999999998], [\"2023-07-02\", 0.322088691386424], [\"2023-07-03\", 0.06705291977097977], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.036948234884779885], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04000000000000004], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.04514738499572361], [\"2023-07-11\", 0.05992314365423952], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.01925306674856648], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.021867938547302436], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.029543549249703132], [\"2023-07-22\", 0.035444583595281555], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.00026803022829990084], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.0004696712364697663], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.000667952395651776], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.0010967332220657158], [\"2023-07-23\", 0.00496732319135271]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. win the Democratic Primary and be a serious contender for President of the United States?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mistersplice/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-the-de", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4020920-why-i-believe-rfk-jr-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nominee/", "date_begin": "2023-06-01", "date_close": "2023-10-09", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Politics & Governance", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-01\", 0.050000000000000086], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.05711273808449801], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.05765090220176144], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.0603501047701566], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.06074420414063269], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.06074420414063269], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.06074420414063269], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.06407148594399902], [\"2023-06-01\", 0.0688786588026237], [\"2023-06-01\", 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0.031625759516485004], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.021232178609396735], [\"2023-10-01\", 0.023875609074585028], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.02068859404559452]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4020920-why-i-believe-rfk-jr-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nominee/\"]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Carolina Panthers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-new-orl", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Caesars Superdome at 10:00 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.6499999999999999], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.6726559896742734], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.6799999999999999], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.69], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6213108653099108], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6743282903080501], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.68], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6800000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.6999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7099999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7099999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7099999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.71], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.72], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7399999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.74], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.75], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7500000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.76], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.77], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.78], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7899999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.7999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8000000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8100000000000003], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8100000000000003], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8100000000000003], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8199999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8200000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8200000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8200000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.83], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8409870551531787], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.85], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.86], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.87], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8799999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.88], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8800000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.89], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9099999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9099999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9099999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.91], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9100000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9151040811416903], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9151040811416903], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9151040811416903], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.92], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9276964776348816], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9277530332665906], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9277530332665906], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9277530332665906], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9299999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.93], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9364484614271307], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9364484614271307], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9364484614271307], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.94], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9400000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9445859958464569], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9445859958464569], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9445859958464569], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9528375593650039], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9528375593650039], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9528375593650039], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9528375593650039], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9559986320119558], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9559986320119558], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9559986320119558], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9618167349257412], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9618167349257412], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9618167349257412], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9640935395286897], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9683600831745991], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9683600831745991], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9683600831745991], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9700000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9700582826854321], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.99], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9928595667922103], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9999459546913049]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NBA (Oct 25, 2023): Will the Orlando Magic beat the Houston Rockets?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nba-oct-25-2023-will-the-orlando-ma", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at 4:00pm PDT on October 25, 2023.\n\nA game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game.\n\nOne reason to bet on _this_ market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n\nThis is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the 50M market cost).", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-19\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5901639344262295], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5901639344262295], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5901639344262295], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5901639344262295], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5901639344262295], [\"2023-10-22\", 0.5901639344262295], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.65095740467347], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7707657757768721], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.82], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8399999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8750888059460916], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.95], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9717676539021611], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.982718054965643], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9851227925838327], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9851227925838327], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9851227925838327], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9998094412523804]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will Jordi Alba start in the US Open Cup final?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Charlie/will-jordi-alba-start-in-the-us-ope", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "date_begin": "2023-09-26", "date_close": "2023-09-28", "date_resolve_at": "2023-09-28", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-26\", 0.569856677359816], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6059268600252206], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6399999999999998], [\"2023-09-26\", 0.6623477807227707], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.005044876494975199], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.021470323622196662], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.040000000000000015], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.040000000000000015], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.040000000000000015], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.04623616542423593], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.3821519574925102], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.44], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.44], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.44], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.48015899782950333], [\"2023-09-27\", 0.6068665899413362], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.0001231441827012791], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.0005090996267930835], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.0005090996267930835], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.0005090996267930835], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.0037482407263491795], [\"2023-09-28\", 0.007231253882211579]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 10 (Nov 12): Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Green Bay Packers?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-10-nov-12-will-the-pittsbu", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Acrisure Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 12, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-11-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-11-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-20\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.6899999999999997], [\"2023-11-05\", 0.725117922744106], [\"2023-11-06\", 0.7585626617321344], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5397873863182011], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.5699999999999997], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.617689211825902], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.65], [\"2023-11-10\", 0.7515317994748546], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.5258156713549956], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 0.5900000000000001], [\"2023-11-11\", 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0.9938478050258146], [\"2023-11-12\", 0.9991227951834071]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Atlanta Falcons?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-18-jan-5-will-the-new-orle", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Caesars Superdome at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5874525717154117], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.3744680277610779], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.40999999999999986], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.5256566632146051], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.55], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.566906345078341], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.48368337009080753], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.48368337009080753], [\"2023-12-31\", 0.48368337009080753], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.5999999999999996], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.6320480389099313], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4567018153269331], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4613685293527941], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.47732409602142095], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4807210283491947], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.48359249995327647], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4868478005444093], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4881722266770016], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4885710778429587], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4885710778429587], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.4885710778429587], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5002208511192641], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5002208511192641], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5002208511192641], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.503677726890927], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.503677726890927], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5078620471620849], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5078620471620849], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5078620471620849], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5128304411782026], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5210333246181411], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5210333246181411], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5210333246181411], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5211438100256018], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5214618037196279], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5214775164927288], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5295104287562638], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5295104287562638], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5295104287562638], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.529579748567456], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5314144347676577], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5332782553679478], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5399999999999998], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5453398371568393], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5453398371568393], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5464459671937393], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5464459671937393], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5464459671937393], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5780930186311015], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.5872887009608336], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.622397156918222], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6223971569182222], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6366268956290714], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6366268956290714], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6366268956290714], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6413084066038165], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6846685400130808], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6920688031347042], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.6999708047242832], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7612231561049656], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7692082368475065], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8974087693494185], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9377390201882929], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9631102485764229], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9663168844865533], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9937818835162834], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9960766930229404], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9998541337112336]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL\ud83c\udfc8: Week 14 -- Will the Green Bay Packers win their MNF NFL Game against the New York Giants on Dec11?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-14-will-the-green-bay-pack", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 9:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.", "date_begin": "2023-11-28", "date_close": "2023-12-12", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-12", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-28\", 0.5175587079964942], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.57], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.6979217013049782], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.0644805268731048], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.09000000000000001], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.1214099739304483], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.22000000000000008], [\"2023-11-29\", 0.22000000000000008], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.10999999999999996], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.10999999999999996], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.10999999999999996], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.14535391362590616], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.21125754575615432], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.2200000000000001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.2200000000000001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.2200000000000001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.2200000000000001], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.30238253438983687], [\"2023-11-30\", 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[\"2023-12-23\", 0.15263429493834538], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.1538620014031117], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.12393397250471345], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.12393397250471345], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.12393397250471345], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.2170460805357885], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.21899900684580503], [\"2023-12-24\", 0.24004531291660983], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.1201877622827], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.13999999999999993], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.13999999999999993], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.13999999999999993], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.15919183325921907], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.18691848501089478], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.1896363605449851], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.2151293391771455], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.1333424026507313], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.13342527270301172], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.14708236144357656], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.1503364162485835], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.1504327837317696], [\"2023-12-26\", 0.15784765768249467], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.08931184914648019], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.09483568779456801], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.09491453067185238], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.09550269914337599], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.10764096100940462], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.1090596087609847], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.1135162000552944], [\"2023-12-27\", 0.11657386513122873], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.045648968997984096], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.045648968997984096], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.045648968997984096], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.04771356238884037], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.05203611430141688], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.0545472488487679], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.05863629465258058], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.05878117814033035], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.0743342852331494], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.08876967984107785], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.08930321461784532], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.09099217839640258], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.0910422546341258], [\"2023-12-28\", 0.09204729439256351], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.005861467785784875], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.007215300275698713], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.016793238556374036], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.01738452771357406], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.018361461133516326], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.02303696050423405], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.0245213748217293], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.024528988614691685], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.03084952441424309], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.031387217343466285], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.03158695571140902], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.03430821421776061], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04039117868434243], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04040717479563316], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04176354365927766], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04283416311836205], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04451799652301632], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04471112095301504], [\"2023-12-29\", 0.04471112095301504], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.008185361125746858], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.008368010770438935], [\"2023-12-30\", 0.010970782114655719]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Cleveland Browns?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-18-jan-5-will-the-cincinna", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Paycor Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2024-01-07", "date_resolve_at": "2024-01-07", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.4432306134484414], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.4432306134484414], [\"2023-11-17\", 0.4432306134484414], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5511631829775456], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4023786444869662], [\"2023-12-17\", 0.4405951490988786], [\"2023-12-22\", 0.3731508661751683], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4128166188753316], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4128166188753316], [\"2023-12-23\", 0.4128166188753316], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.38660638085613747], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.438601771019564], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.48000000000000004], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.48000000000000004], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.48000000000000004], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.59], [\"2024-01-01\", 0.6429740433599016], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.62], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6391125092735838], [\"2024-01-02\", 0.6581370866371851], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.6553200372541568], [\"2024-01-03\", 0.729027443987674], [\"2024-01-04\", 0.7033112699821528], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.727146331694819], [\"2024-01-05\", 0.7358666037921916], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7442039650227711], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7935867542538396], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7935867542538396], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7935867542538396], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.7991013722410456], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.800681301103905], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8022163834441908], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8037341455158403], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8052348328477846], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.806718687012937], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8081859456929718], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8096368427422874], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8110716082511477], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8124904686079928], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8138936465609147], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8152813612782931], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.81665382840859], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8180112601392994], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8193493330991223], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8206728718199887], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8219820768468091], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8232771455208715], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8245582720340611], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8258256474822516], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8339369764341257], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.835104958949544], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8362607244727874], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8374044367612103], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8385362569955003], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8396563438238388], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8407648534053184], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8418619394526268], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8429421943515435], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.844011425250452], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8450697770336878], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8461173923344781], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8471544115735247], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8481809729969179], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8491972127133911], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.850203264730926], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8511992609927163], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8521853314125016], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8531616039092805], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8541282044414105], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8814430327029127], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8821285950412247], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.8828081123813625], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9713121882307312], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.971806402416197], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9729827355945777], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.973096102167173], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9751073916372238], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9767832380762238], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9767832380762238], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9768667026236068], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9846587889410164], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9901892397955933], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9929935984301982], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9957768943454004], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9965441609442911], [\"2024-01-07\", 0.9995316631264581]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 5 (Oct 8): Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Jacksonville Jaguars?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-5-oct-8-will-the-buffalo-b", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at 06:30 PDT on October 8, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-08", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5291015257110565], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.5912403214357987], [\"2023-09-24\", 0.6290315303813749], [\"2023-09-25\", 0.6447799345450029], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.73], [\"2023-10-03\", 0.7624426795791697], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.6999999999999994], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.6999999999999994], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.6999999999999994], [\"2023-10-05\", 0.6999999999999994], [\"2023-10-06\", 0.6999999999999987], [\"2023-10-07\", 0.7129639917373032], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0005659510323358334], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.00210801174422424], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.004155548620512899], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.007928127556263286], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.012214465164862593], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.015845981345014658], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.018403553954797865], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.02080018760785899], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.029482023831307633], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.02973284346685329], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.03001157231843869], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.030667916297106225], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.03068427121145169], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.032179107558682384], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.033627910077137495], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.034786863804784254], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.036388825578781876], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.04000000000000004], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.040837595854308184], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.04942902617391613], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.04942902617391613], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.04942902617391613], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.049598852893149], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.054515076143047056], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.055274978474402936], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.055274978474402936], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.055274978474402936], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.059816205458397886], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.060034011075183226], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.06110144275109355], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.06419030144979505], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.06841759273274496], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.06841759273274496], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.06841759273274496], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0700000000000001], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.07148964059177224], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.07930634999437126], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.08034942607610246], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.08318018431905717], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.08642478390638067], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0885192034684572], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0885192034684572], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0885192034684572], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.08879087310713399], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09000000000000002], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09000000000000002], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09000000000000002], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09095371404875635], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09122803887167093], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.0913329721683457], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09452423776727746], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09737364205536791], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09737364205536791], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09737364205536791], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09891473752939679], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09891473752939679], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09891473752939679], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09942756476149074], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.09975869328916045], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.10004356939716084], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.10011744578256465], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.10117023900247311], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1033629025438558], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.10406813631925199], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.10602762011617864], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.10936150180339392], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.10936150180339392], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.10936150180339392], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.11123256318103618], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.11131257314232389], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.11887568179499114], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.11887568179499114], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.11887568179499114], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12118038895481291], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12118038895481291], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12118038895481291], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12137255784217589], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12172157830840555], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1225578473349529], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1225578473349529], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1225578473349529], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12478396059392798], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12922132465251052], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12922132465251052], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.12922132465251052], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.13140230173908624], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1319409090647], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1319409090647], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.1319409090647], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.13859352319646528], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.13859352319646528], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.13859352319646528], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.14], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.14000000000000012], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.14069658491602205], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.14069658491602205], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.14069658491602205], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.142772201617484], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.142772201617484], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.142772201617484], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.14674218833357514], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.15045563609918441], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.15129940510742051], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.15912971773193985], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.15999999999999995], [\"2023-10-08\", 0.17000000000000004], 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A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-03", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-03", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4098360655737706], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.4505311251641599], [\"2023-11-26\", 0.5630970117603687], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.45053112516415966], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.52], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-27\", 0.54], [\"2023-11-28\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.62], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.6399999999999999], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.54], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.5756194789585795], [\"2023-12-02\", 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0.996362218999382], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.996362218999382], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.996362218999382], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.9966148440339874], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.999397597969608]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NBA (Oct 25, 2023): Will the Charlotte Hornets beat the Atlanta Hawks?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nba-oct-25-2023-will-the-charlotte", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at 4:00pm PDT on October 25, 2023.\n\nA game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game.\n\nOne reason to bet on _this_ market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n\nThis is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the 50M market cost).", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.3253513794898492], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.38], [\"2023-10-25\", 0.4123047884470579], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.15473884040470792], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.17], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.23], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.2537948567222079], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.3148627244329212], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.48608165463871744], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5500224610884944], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5899999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5899999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.5899999999999999], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.6210275583677791], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7200000000000002], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7461710688733949], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.7770818665522949], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8124639962075267], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8200000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9100000000000001], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9360646293793579], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.96], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9787755333862502], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9999518117601918]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NBA (Oct 25, 2023): Will the Indiana Pacers beat the Washington Wizards?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nba-oct-25-2023-will-the-indiana-pa", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at 4:00pm PDT on October 25, 2023.\n\nA game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game.\n\nOne reason to bet on _this_ market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n\nThis is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the 50M market cost).", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-26", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-26", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.565141763785006], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.8660701914306087], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9688702408703656], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9908565443146525], [\"2023-10-26\", 0.9998856434075023]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Dallas Cowboys?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-16-dec-24-will-the-miami-d", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at Hard Rock Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 24, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-25", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-25", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.4918647969838481], [\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-23\", 0.571019187478945], [\"2023-11-25\", 0.7325105478854278], [\"2023-12-03\", 0.7757771448439473], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.35943980661463104], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.4499379800485667], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.4625150586829122], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.49999999999999994], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5045545253050954], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5475827453269808], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5525238344567884], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5525238344567884], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5525238344567884], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5742624456963435], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.5742624456963435], 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0.8182525790362069], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.82], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8329284928622077], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8356532389371697], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8372942875365595], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.84], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8561716215041573], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8788768589563185], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8788768589563185], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8788768589563185], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8808657355497651], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8808657355497651], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8808657355497651], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.8999999999999999], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.910317103536257], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.910317103536257], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.910317103536257], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9288002881710247], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9431956214819124], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9431956214819124], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9431956214819124], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9436351897483068], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9531025558991199], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9612205326808401], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9799827408210378], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9799827408210378], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9799827408210378], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9880474124063314], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9926668787402457], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9927019885220155], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9927388875496554], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.9948695154499491], [\"2023-12-25\", 0.998428006487952]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Which team will score the most points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 in the NBA finals?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PC/which-team-will-score-the-most-poin-acc1845cde5d", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "YES = Denver\n\nNO = Miami\n\nTie = Yes\n\nHere are some markets for Game 3:\n\n1st quarter score\n\n2nd quarter score\n\n3rd quarter score\n\n4th quarter score\n\nKevin Love more than 15 minutes\n\nJokic more than 8 assists", "date_begin": "2023-06-07", "date_close": "2023-06-08", "date_resolve_at": "2023-06-08", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-06-07\", 0.47242305543064195], [\"2023-06-07\", 0.5475113122171945], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.0024277128962697275], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.004960624605289958], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.01883125114729313], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.021152714598183298], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.03755947979628139], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.06], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.0606761345544022], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.13572459242716609], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.163684787498824], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.17081108958711258], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.18706529599859462], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.299577276633957], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.30833709205059473], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.3521119940518632], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.3792188702059813], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.40000000000000013], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.42293835293000215], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.4345543773175111], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.4345543773175111], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.4345543773175111], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.4659139014622271], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.4659950920139989], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.4990562748168628], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5073904998830392], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5146922050807615], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5568241074381304], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5572078421543046], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5591998667920092], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.5644466541010433], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.6015488954785291], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.6155633428387819], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.6733079103002988], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.6797901435307685], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.718680594223926], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7220918737274094], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7258972161197033], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7285715631480211], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7428161316522994], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7529211936418712], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7529211936418712], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7529211936418712], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.7633169076703076], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.784422006898938], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9599999999999999], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9599999999999999], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9599999999999999], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9968223620450949], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9968223620450949], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9968223620450949], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9985061975391513], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9991664194422825], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9993194173723104], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9997350299655724], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9999615941483505], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9999664254862997], [\"2023-06-08\", 0.9999679220432267]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the New York Jets beat the Houston Texans?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-14-dec-10-will-the-new-yor", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 10, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-20", "date_close": "2023-12-10", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-10", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.29147698006237527], [\"2023-12-02\", 0.37], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.28497582054795706], [\"2023-12-05\", 0.3099999999999999], [\"2023-12-06\", 0.32999999999999996], [\"2023-12-07\", 0.34999999999999987], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3600000000000001], [\"2023-12-09\", 0.3700000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3479559801325113], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3699999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.37999999999999995], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.38000000000000006], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.38000000000000017], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39719135214510987], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3999999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.3999999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.39999999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4000000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4099999999999997], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.40999999999999975], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.40999999999999975], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.40999999999999975], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4099999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4199999999999998], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4199999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.42999999999999977], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.42999999999999977], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4299999999999998], 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[\"2023-12-10\", 0.44999999999999984], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4499999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.44999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45000000000000007], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4500000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4500000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4500000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4599999999999999], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.45999999999999996], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4600000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4600000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4600000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.46000000000000013], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.46000000000000013], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.46000000000000013], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4600000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4600000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4600000000000002], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.4669863777117643], 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0.9900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9900000000000001], [\"2023-12-10\", 0.9999929325373612]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NBA (Oct 30, 2023): Will the Charlotte Hornets beat the Brooklyn Nets?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nba-oct-30-2023-will-the-charlotte", "resolution": 0, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at 4:00pm PDT on October 30, 2023.\n\nA game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game.\n\nOne reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n\nThis is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the 50M market cost).", "date_begin": "2023-10-16", "date_close": "2023-10-31", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-31", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-10-16\", 0.40186465198521143], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.3067629107853721], [\"2023-10-28\", 0.4018646519852117], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.31568489457834953], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.34186882408672026], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.3500000000000002], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.360955470764422], [\"2023-10-30\", 0.38000000000000017], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.00021448754490965702], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.0013626048763553526], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.001682520906381404], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.01176177263969889], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.01433894628975536], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.01433894628975536], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.01433894628975536], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.016249556186917414], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.038284564341488275], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.050000000000000024], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.21162879859652142], [\"2023-10-31\", 0.23999999999999985]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Indianapolis Colts?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-6-oct-15-will-the-jacksonv", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "The game will take place at EverBank Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 15, 2023.\n\nA game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "date_begin": "2023-09-11", "date_close": "2023-10-15", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-15", "gpt_3p5_category": "Sports", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-09-21\", 0.5475113122171945], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6099999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-10-09\", 0.6299999999999999], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.65], [\"2023-10-13\", 0.6668999664953251], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.63], [\"2023-10-14\", 0.6562121093475755], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5814732142857144], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.59], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5999999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.5999999999999999], 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0.6963470319634703], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.6963470319634703], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.71], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7100000000000001], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7298304847456051], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.7594478365380272], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.77], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8193552376809042], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8539674402579632], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8539674402579632], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8539674402579632], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8674363820892577], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.88], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8816330537899923], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8816330537899923], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8816330537899923], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8820569934659442], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.8899999999999999], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.89], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9168186400121565], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.92], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9229114886388771], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9229114886388771], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9229114886388771], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.925680177709773], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.925680177709773], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.925680177709773], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9294535331840015], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9300000000000002], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9360599894383929], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.93841642228739], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.93841642228739], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9391094386307237], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9461382113821138], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9461382113821138], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.946138211382114], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9482845395602422], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.98], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9817554312050721], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9817554312050721], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9817554312050721], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9817554312050721], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9818822028503505], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9899515628904632], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9899515628904632], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9899515628904632], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9905014502200478], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9979640099031568], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9988904735721398], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9988928802832024], [\"2023-10-15\", 0.9996858842897186]]", "extracted_urls": "[]"}, {"question": "Will the S&P 500 increase in November 2023?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-novembe-145f77830ae9", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "Will the S&P 500 close at 4193.80 or higher on 2023-11-30 ()?\n\nSee also: Will the S&P 500 increase in Q4 2023?\nYES\n\u200c\n\nWill the S&P 500 increase in 2023?\nYES\n\u200c\n\nS&P 500 close level from January to October 2023\n\n4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, 4288.05, 4193.80\n\nhttps://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices", "date_begin": "2023-11-02", "date_close": "2023-12-02", "date_resolve_at": "2023-12-01", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-11-02\", 0.5901639344262294], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.6621621621621621], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.699421466194629], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.724968324652113], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.7641509433962261], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.7641509433962262], [\"2023-11-02\", 0.7830802603036875], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7162105026182702], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7240180135558001], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7286309447055713], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7321289409078465], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7430861218810033], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7430861218810033], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7430861218810033], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7436125240198935], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7436125240198935], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7436125240198935], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7439749094158311], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.75], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7542974770745271], [\"2023-11-03\", 0.7587086701398532], 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0.9937513233204471], [\"2023-11-30\", 0.9937913617549325], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9953472197065716], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9953709138829264], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9955402123910084], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9985661342131432], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9986505681703687], [\"2023-12-01\", 0.9987612578871914]]", "extracted_urls": "[\"https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices\"]"}, {"question": "Will the Price of Bitcoin hit 35.000,00$ before 1st Jan 2024?", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-hit-35000", "resolution": 1, "is_resolved": true, "data_source": "manifold", "question_type": "BINARY", "background": "I will resolve this according to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/\n\n(PLEASE note that if the price hits 35.000,00$ and goes back down it will be resolved as YES)", "date_begin": "2023-08-20", "date_close": "2023-10-24", "date_resolve_at": "2023-10-24", "gpt_3p5_category": "Economics & Business", "resolution_criteria": "Not applicable/available for this question.", "community_predictions": "[[\"2023-08-20\", 0.11982733101555991], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.15], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.16000000000000014], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.17559973867294246], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.18000000000000002], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.18354610632192891], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.1858661488966819], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.19268459329439405], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.1999999999999999], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.20000000000000007], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.20000000000000007], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.20000000000000007], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.20174010400264292], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.20174010400264292], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.20174010400264292], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.2064309963258932], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.20647704354773963], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.21225417185890946], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.2148489463875267], [\"2023-08-20\", 0.22060239366298273], 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